USC Trojans football

2015 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 8

football_goalThe college football schedule is so unappealing this week that ESPN’s College Gameday is headed to Harrisonburg, VA, the site of a 1-AA game pitting James Madison against Richmond. Nevertheless, not only did I find enough games to choose from, but y’all are getting bonus picks to make up for last week’s shortfall. You’re welcome. Speaking of last week, I went 3-1, while Zach was 1-3. Michigan wasn’t going to cover the 8 ½ points even if they hadn’t lost to Michigan State outright on what is sure to become a legendary last second play. LSU won by 7 points…not 7 ½…which was bad for both Zach and me. Conversely, the hated Patriots beat the Colts by only 7 points…not 7 ½…which was good for me (but not Zach). I don’t know how the oddsmakers come up with point spreads, but it is impressive just how accurate they often are. Anyway, for the season thus far I am 24-13, while Zach is 16-21. Like I said, we’re picking some extra games this week, so enjoy, and don’t hesitate to leave feedback and tell your friends about these picks and other content one can find here. We’re always looking for ways to expand The Manoverse and all are welcome.

 

 

 

 

 

Pitt (-7) at Syracuse
syracuseThis just in…Pitt still sucks to those of us living in West Virginia, although I do miss The Backyard Brawl. I haven’t kept up shitwith these two programs much since they joined the ACC, mostly because they had become irrelevant years before that. But surprisingly enough the Panthers have actually snuck into the rankings with a record of 5-1. I don’t think they are anywhere close to recapturing the glory days of Tony Dorsett & Dan Marino, but I’ll give credit where credit is due. Meanwhile, the Orangemen still seem to be adrift in the wilderness that they’ve been wandering for most of the past fifteen years. I don’t know enough about either team to offer astute analysis, so I’ll just go with my heart, which is figuratively emblazoned with the slogan Eat Shit Pitt. Old habits die hard. On the flip side, Zach is young enough to not be jaded by decades of Panther hate and he likes their potent ground game.

My Pick: Syracuse
Z’s Pick: Pitt

 

 

Kansas at Oklahoma St. (-33.5)
kansasI chose this game simply because of the large point spread. Few doubt the Cowboys will win, but the question is by how much?? Again, it is amazing just how precise the folks in Vegas can oftentimes be, so I don’t doubt the final margin of victory will be somewhere in the 30-35 point range. I’ve won & lost picks over the years by as little as a half point, so that’s probably the kind of situation we have here. Oklahoma St. has only beaten one team by more than 30 points, while the Jayhawks have only lost twice by 30+, so I’ll go out on a limb and say that the favorites will win by four TDs and not cover the spread. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Kansas
Z’s Pick: Kansas

 

 

Iowa St. at Baylor (-37)
Iowa_State_CyclonesHere we have another point spread game, this one involving one of the top teams in the nation. The Bears have been baylormachine-esque in dismantling opponents by an average of 39 points/game. Conversely, the Cyclones are 2-4, although they’ve only been defeated by 30+ points once. At this point Baylor isn’t going to take anyone by surprise and have to expect that they’ll take each foe’s best shot. How good is Iowa St.’s best shot?? It won’t be good enough to win, but it’ll be within five TDs. Zach disagrees. He likens this to a David & Goliath kind of thing except without God involved. He believes Baylor might score 80 points and thinks they are the best team in the country.

My Pick: Iowa St.
Z’s Pick: Baylor

 

 

Utah at USC (-3.5)
USC_Trojans2The marquee college matchup this week is once again in the Pac 12. Fortunately for interested viewers on the east coast it’ll beutah a 7:30pm game which makes it easier to stay awake. I totally overestimated the Trojans in my pre-season rankings. Instead of being in the national title conversation they are riding a two game losing streak and playing under an interim coach after former head coach Steve Sarkisian was revealed to be a lush & consequently fired. Conversely, the Utes are on a roll at 6-0 and are firmly in the playoff hunt. However, both seasons could turn on a dime in this game. I really don’t understand why Southern Cal is favored. Sure they have the home field, but it is utterly disrespectful & dismissive for an undefeated Top 5 team to be underdogs to a 3-3 team in the midst of turmoil. Do the oddsmakers once again know something we don’t?? Why is it so darn difficult for folks (including me) to accept that Utah may be a legitimate contender?? I’ve got to assume that the points are meaningful and that USC will be motivated to prove something to those who have jumped off the bandwagon, so I’ll ride that crazy wave. Zach isn’t buying what the oddsmakers are selling and believes Utah might win by 5 TDs.

My Pick: USC
Z’s Pick: Utah

 

 

 

Minnesota (-2.5) at Detroit
vikingshelmet1The Lions are only 1-5?? Yikes. In my NFL Preview I predicted that the Vikings would be better than Detroit and might even Detroit_Lions_Helmetsneak into the playoffs. So far so good. Detroit has been mostly competitive but couldn’t get into the winner’s circle until last week, and even then it was in overtime & controversial. These two teams met a few weeks ago in Minnesota with the home team scoring a 10 point victory. It is unusual that Detroit isn’t getting the customary three point home field bump, but there is probably a good reason for that. I might regret it, but I’ll go with the flow and stay true to my pre-season prognostications. Conversely, Zach is predicting an upset.

My Pick: Minnesota
Z’s Pick: Detroit

 

 

 

Philadelphia at Carolina (-3)
carolina_panthers_logo-14336In 2014 I picked the Panthers to go 10-6 and make the playoffs. Instead they were 7-8-1 (although oddly enough they did make the playoffs). This year I said they’d go 8-8, so of course thus far they are undefeated. QB Cam Newton is an absolute beast. Meanwhile, the 3-3 Eagles may have actually figured out the right formula. Or not. No one really knows. Chip Kelly’s name is already being thrown around for collegiate openings at South Carolina and Southern Cal, and despite denials I tend to believe in the “where there’s smoke there’s fire” philosophy. Anyway, there’s really no compelling reason to go against the experts so I won’t. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Carolina
Z’s Pick: Carolina

 

 

 

Baltimore at Arizona (-7.5)
nflarizonacardinalsNo one is shocked that the Cardinals are 4-2 and leading the NFC West. But if you would have told me that the Ravens would start the season 1-5 and be AFC North cellar dwellers (worse than the 2-4 Cleveland Browns) I would have said that’s crazy talk. I did say that I expected them to “take a step back” from 2014’s 10-6 outcome, but I never imagined they’d be this inept. I think they’ll get things straightened out at some point, but not this week. Arizona should cruise to an easy win. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Arizona
Z’s Pick: Arizona

2015 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

kickoff_footballNow things are starting to get interesting. The conference schedules are heating up in the NCAA, and we’re beginning to get a good idea which NFL teams just might have a chance to be pretty good and which ones may have been a bit misjudged. Both Zach & I were mired in mediocrity last week…he went 2-3 while I was only slightly better at 3-2. Our hatred of the New England Patriots may have clouded our judgment a little, and the Philadelphia Eagles are even worse than I thought they’d be. So that means our season looks like this so far:

Me = 11-4               Z = 6-9

I’m feeling generous this week, and y’all may remember what that means…bonus picks!! I like to do that occasionally when the schedule seems particularly intriguing, and also because we usually end up taking a bye week for one reason or another at some point. We’re split down the middle with college & pro picks this week, and when it’s over we’ll have an even better inkling of the paths the season is heading down. Enjoy.

 

 

 
TCU (-7) at Texas Tech
Texas-Tech-260x300The Horned Frogs are currently ranked 4th in most polls, which would put them in the playoff. However I still think they will TCU Cool Logoultimately fall short…again. They didn’t look all that impressive in their season opener at Minnesota, and have played two cupcakes since then. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders blew thru their first two opponents and then pulled off a minor upset at Arkansas last week. In 2014 these two teams met in Fort Worth and TCU obliterated Tech 82-27. Not only is this game in Lubbock, but TCU recently had to kick a couple of guys off the team after they were arrested for beating some students up and stealing a case of Keystone Light. I’m not much of a beer connoisseur nowadays, but if I’m going to jail it’s not going to be for Keystone Light. Anyway, I’m not quite gutsy enough to pick the outright upset but this feels like a close one to me, the kind of game that will be decided late in the 4th quarter by a field goal, turnover, or punt return. Zach, on the other hand, thinks TCU will win easily.

My Pick – Texas Tech
Z’s Pick – TCU

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Utah at Oregon (-13.5)
Oregon-DucksThe Utes are better than I expected. I don’t think they’re winning the Pac 12, but they could win 9 or 10 games and end up with utahquite the desirable bowl locale. The Ducks, as predicted, fell at Michigan St., so the national title is probably off the table…a conference title isn’t though. The points concern me more than a little, but I’m going to swallow hard, pray, & pick Oregon to cover. Zach is a bit more pragmatic, choosing Utah to cover the points but probably not win the game.

My Pick – Oregon
Z’s Pick – Utah

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USC (-5.5) at Arizona St.
USC_Trojans2I haven’t bought into the Arizona St. hype from Day 1, but there are those that still believe they will have a stellar season and be in the conference title hunt. Conversely, I picked the Trojans #2 in my pre-season poll, a choice that doesn’t look promising after last week’s loss to Stanford. I think there remains a narrow path to the Final Four for USC, but it is undeniably a tough road. It’s interesting that the Trojans are favored on the road coming off a loss against an opponent riding a two game winning streak. I think it wise to pay attention to such things. Zach was as surprised as the rest of us by Stanford’s upset of USC, but he believes that the Trojans will rebound and win this one by two TDs.

My Pick – Southern Cal
Z’s Pick – Southern Cal

 

 

UCLA (-3.5) at Arizona
Well I know what I’ll be doing Saturday night. Since fair & festival season is over it’ll be nice to actually stay at home and relax with a warm beverage college_arizona_90& a good ball game. The Bruins escaped a thriller against BYU last week, while the Wildcats have barely broken a sweat thus far this season. UCLA has lost three defensive players to season ending injuries, with the latest being talented linebacker Myles Jack. That hurts. Conversely, Arizona defensive end Scooby Wright may or may not be ready to come back from an injury he suffered a few weeks ago. Bruins’ freshman QB Josh Rosen is probably the real deal, but he’s not faced a situation like this…a huge game in a hostile environment. This is Arizona’s moment to shine and I believe they’ll take it. Zach expects a high scoring shootout, with Arizona pulling off the upset.

My Pick – Arizona
Z’s Pick – Arizona

 

 

Atlanta (-2) at Dallas
No Romo. No Dez Bryant. No chance for the Cowboys?? Ehhh…I won’t go that far. I don’t think they’ll win the 12 games I originally forecasted, but falconsthey still have a better than average opportunity to top the pedestrian NFC East. Meanwhile, the Falcons are off to a hot start and also play in a mediocre division, which bodes well for them. Dallas will win games during the absences of Romo & Bryant…but not this game. Zach predicts the Falcons will win by atleast two TDs.

My Pick – Atlanta
Z’s Pick – Atlanta

 
Indianapolis (-3) at Tennessee
Tennessee_Titans_HelmetWhat in the world is going on with the Colts?? I thought Andrew Luck was supposed to be the next elite quarterback, theIndianapolis_Colts_Helmet standard bearer for the league once guys like Brady, Manning (you know which one), & Roethlisberger fade away. Elite quarterbacks overcome minor nuisances like their team’s poor defense or a substandard offensive line. Elite quarterbacks don’t go 0-2…or 0-3. It seems unlikely that Indy will go 14-2 as I predicted, but they are yet another team that can seemingly weather the storm and win an average division. Or can they?? Is the NFC South…with Tennessee, Houston, & Jacksonville…really as unimpressive as most believe?? Titans’ rookie QB Marcus Mariota looked pretty good in a Week 1 victory at Tampa, less so in last week’s loss to Cleveland. The smart money is on the Colts rebounding in this game and easing any doubts people have started to have about them, and also on Mariota continuing to have growing pains. Normally I’d go with that flow, but The Vibes are shouting at me to go against the grain. Zach thinks the Titans can hang for 3+ quarters but will eventually be defeated.

My Pick – Tennessee
Z’s Pick – Indianapolis

 
Buffalo at Miami (-3)
It looks like these are two teams that are still…sadly…chasing after the elusive golden snitch called the New England Patriots. Rumors of their vast Buffalo_Bills_Helmetimprovement were greatly exaggerated. That being said, there may still be a wildcard berth in the future of whichever team can get a leg up, and that starts now. The Bills do have some interesting weapons in WR Sammy Watkins & RB LeSean McCoy, and their defense has potential. I’m not at all sure QB Tyrod Taylor is legit, and going forward that is a mystery that’ll need to be solved. The Dolphins’ defense hasn’t met high expectations yet, and their running game is abysmal. At this particular moment in time Buffalo looks like it has the better overall team, and that’s the direction I lean. Zach concurs.

My Pick – Buffalo
Z’s Pick – Buffalo

 

 

Kansas City at Green Bay (-6.5)
kc-chiefs-logoThis is the Monday night game and I anticipate that it’ll be a dandy. Despite starting the season 1-1 I am still high on the ChiefsGreen_Bay_Packers_Helmet and expect them to be a playoff team. However, they are playing the Packers on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. That’s no easy task. RB Eddie Lacy has a sprained ankle and may or may not play for Green Bay, but James Starks is a capable backup. In my opinion it’s all about the defenses and I think Kansas City will stymie Aaron Rodgers just enough to make it way closer than 6 ½ points. Conversely, Zach believes Green Bay will win by a comfortable margin.

My Pick – Kansas City
Z’s Pick – Green Bay

2015 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

College-Football-MapA year ago I was so excited about the inaugural four team college football playoff. That enthusiasm was eventually mitigated just a bit. Though, at the end of the day, I admit that the teams selected were deserving, the process itself was severely flawed. It has become clear that the Division 1 FBS level of college football needs to be further subdivided into two tiers, each with its own championship. As it stands now, only half of the FBS teams have a realistic path to the playoff. At any rate, that is a debate for another time. For now let’s just be happy that football is back and there will finally be something worthwhile to vegg out for on the weekend.

 

 

 

 

1 Ohio State
Last Season: 14-1
Key Games: 11/21 vs. Michigan St., 11/28 at Michigan, 12/5 Big Ten Championship Game
I was WAY wrong in my assessment of the Buckeyes last pre-season. I, like many others, assumed that losing their starting QB was a death blow. Ohio_State_BuckeyesNow…a year later…they return three starting caliber QBs. It looks like Braxton Miller might move to receiver, JT Barrett will be the starter, & Cardale Jones will be forced to be patient and probably delay his NFL aspirations another year. Or not. Who knows?? I’m not at all worried about suspensions for the first game against Virginia Tech, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t get to 10-0 pretty easily before a tough two games to end the regular season.

 

2 Southern Cal
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/19 vs. Stanford, 9/26 at Arizona St., 10/17 at Notre Dame, 11/7 vs. Arizona, 11/21 at Oregon, 11/28 vs. UCLAUSC_Trojans2
The Trojans are still recovering from NCAA sanctions and may have some depth issues that make this prediction a bit of a reach. However, they return practically their entire starting roster on both offense & defense, including senior QB Cody Kessler. The schedule is brutal, so we’ll have a good indication by the beginning of October whether or not this team is for real, but even then November is absolutely vicious. It’s going to be feast or famine with Southern Cal in 2015, and I’ll walk away a fool or a king.

 

3 Notre Dame
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 10/3 at Clemson, 10/17 vs. USC, 11/28 at Stanford
Count me among those that feel The Irish need to eventually be not-so-gently persuaded to join a conference. They’re kind of playing footsie with the NotreDame1ACC, but aren’t all in by any means. On the other hand, until they are forced I understand why they aren’t making the move of their own volition. Why should they?? Being independent certainly isn’t hurting their schedule or national title hopes. They should blow right thru most opponents, although 2 of the 3 key games listed above are on the road. It would seem almost impossible for both Notre Dame & USC to make the playoff after one defeats (and presumably eliminates) the other on October 17. That’s going to be a huge game.

 

4 Alabama
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 10/3 at Georgia, 10/17 at Texas A&M, 11/7 vs. LSU, 11/28 at Auburn
The inaugural playoff proved that SEC teams aren’t just going to enjoy a cakewalk to the Final Four. After having seen the process and how everything AlabamaCrimsonTide2played out I now understand that any conference…including the SEC…getting two teams into the playoff is almost impossible. That being said, the SEC champion will undoubtedly be in the mix and there’s no reason not to think the Crimson Tide won’t be right in the thick of the battle. I don’t expect the season opener…a neutral site game against Wisconsin at the Palace in Dallas…to be a problem, and I don’t think the two Mississippi teams will be serious threats this year. 3 of the 4 key games I’ve noted are on the road, which may pose a bit of a challenge.

 

5 Michigan State
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 9/12 at Oregon, 10/17 at Michigan, 11/7 at Nebraska, 11/21 at Ohio St.
It seems like the Spartans are forever playing the bridesmaid role…always good, but never quite good enough. Until they are able to jump over the Michigan_State_SpartansOhio St. obstacle that will continue to be the case.

 

6 Baylor
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 11/14 vs. Oklahoma, 11/27 at TCU
Big 12 fans aren’t going to like this, but the fact is that until the league expands and adds a championship game the likelihood of the conference’s top baylorteam being left out of the playoff remains high. The Bears’ non-conference slate of SMU, Lamar, & Rice is completely prosaic & unimpressive, which will hurt their playoff chances even if they go undefeated. The conference itself, while fun to watch, doesn’t get the level of respect given to the SEC, Big Ten, or Pac 12, and that is probably going to remain the case as long as Oklahoma & Texas aren’t dominant programs.

 

7 TCU
Last Season: 12-1
Key Games: 11/21 at Oklahoma, 11/27 vs. Baylor
Remember what I said about Baylor?? Ditto, although I should point out that the non-conference opener at Minnesota is respectable. All one needs to TCU Cool Logoknow about how the Big 12 is viewed by those that matter is that the Baylor-TCU game on November 27th…a de facto conference championship game…is being played on a Friday night. Sure it is Black Friday and people should theoretically be home vegging out in front of the TV after a long day of shopping, but important college football games are NOT played on Fridays.

 

8 Florida State
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 10/24 at Georgia Tech, 11/7 at Clemson
As much as I dislike Jameis Winston I have to admit he was a winning college QB that oftentimes carried his team to victories they otherwise wouldn’t FloridaStateSeminoles1have gotten. But now he is gone, off to wreak havoc in the NFL (whether it’ll be on the field or off is to be determined). Obviously Florida St. is the kind of team that reloads quickly and doesn’t suffer all that much from such personnel losses, but I’d be surprised if they were in the national title mix again. They’ll do well in their conference because the ACC is always relatively weak, but it won’t be enough to get back to the Final Four. I just have this feeling that they’ll stumble unexpectedly atleast once.

 

9 LSU
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/19 vs. Auburn, 11/7 at Alabama, 11/28 at Texas A&M
Every game is a tough one in the SEC, and every team has the potential to be a top flight national contender if they perform well in that conference. lsu_logo-95472014 was a bit of a down year for the Bayou Bengals, but my vibes are telling me this will be a bounce back season. They’ll need to win one or two big games…probably atleast one on the road.

 

10 Georgia
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 10/3 vs. Alabama, 10/10 at Tennessee, 11/14 at Auburn, 11/28 at Georgia Tech
I’m really hesitant to put three SEC teams in the Top 10, but I will for two reasons. First of all, if any conference can pull it off it’s the SEC. Secondly, I georgiasuppose I’m hedging my bets just a bit. RB Todd Gurley has moved on to the NFL’s St. Louis Rams, but one must remember that he didn’t play all that much last year due to a suspension and then a season ending knee injury. Freshman tailback Nick Chubb was thrown into the mix out of necessity and rushed for over 1500 yards, including a 200+ yard game against Arkansas and a 266 yard effort in the Belk Bowl. The bigger loss may be WR Chris Conley…now with the Kansas City Chiefs…who accounted for over 1300 receiving yards and a dozen touchdowns in 2014. Anyway, when a team has a stud like Chubb the game plan is pretty simple…ride that horse all the way to the finish line. It’s not complicated.

 

11 Oregon
Last Season: 13-2
Key Games: 9/12 at Michigan St., 10/29 at Arizona St., 11/14 at Stanford, 11/21 vs. USC
First of all, the Pac 12 has suddenly become a brutally competitive conference. Secondly, a team usually doesn’t replace a Heisman winning signal Oregon-Duckscaller like Marcus Mariota without a hiccup or two. It’s not that I think the Ducks won’t be good…I just don’t think they’ll be in the playoff discussion. They have a huge game against Southern Cal in Eugene near the end of the season, but before they get to that point they will have to win a couple of battles on the road.

 

12 Clemson
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 10/3 vs. Notre Dame, 11/7 vs. Florida St.
I’m not quite ready to choose Clemson over Florida St. in the ACC…but there are some rumblings amongst the masses. A non-conference (kind of) clemsonclash against The Fighting Irish in South Bend will be a good indicator of where the Tigers stand, and then they have the Seminoles at home. An upset in that game could catapult Clemson into the Top 10.

 

13 Oklahoma
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/12 at Tennessee, 11/14 at Baylor, 11/21 vs. TCU
After reeling off four consecutive 10+ win seasons 2014 was a bit of a down year for the Sooners. I expect them to rebound slightly this season. A lot oklahomadepends on the outcome of a quarterback battle between incumbent Trevor Knight and a transfer from Texas Tech that is apparently impressing a lot of people. They’ll need to upset either Baylor or TCU to climb this far in the rankings.

 

14 Arizona
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: 9/26 vs. UCLA, 11/7 at USC
To those who may be curious…yes, I still detest Rich Fraudriguez, but I’ll be darned if he doesn’t have a pretty entertaining ball club in Tucson. Last ArizonaWildcatsyear they upset Oregon with a late 4th quarter touchdown, defeated Utah with a last second field goal, & were a failed 2 point conversion away from tying USC. RB Nick Wilson rushed for nearly 1300 yards in his freshman season and should be even better this year, while the defense is led by junior linebacker Scooby Wright (one of the best names in college football). I expect to be up into the wee hours of the morning on several Saturday nights this fall watching the Wildcats, and I think they’re going to win most of those games.

 

15 Texas A&M
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/5 vs. Arizona St., 10/17 vs. Alabama, 11/7 vs. Auburn, 11/25 at LSU
I will never understand exactly why the Aggies joined the SEC. I mean yeah, I get the money & the prestige, but the fact is they are an afterthought aggiesclawing for every ounce of respect & attention. If they would have remained in the Big 12 not only would that conference be deeper but A&M would be amongst the best teams and have a clearer path to the national championship. Nevertheless, they are still a solid team that has a few very big games at home. Opening the season against legitimate competition like Arizona St. is admirable. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not it is a wise idea.

 

16 UCLA
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/26 at Arizona, 10/15 at Stanford, 11/28 at USC
Quarterback Brett Hundley is gone, off to the Green Bay Packers to do Aaron Rodgers’ laundry and test his food for poison like people did for kings in ucla_bruins2The Dark Ages. It is for that reason that I don’t think the Bruins will get to double digit victories in 2015. Some of their biggest games are on the road, so that’ll be tough as well. However, I don’t think 8 or 9 wins and a Top 20 finish are impossible.

 

17 Northern Illinois
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/19 at Ohio St., 9/26 at Boston College
The talking heads tend to focus on the “Power 5” conferences and the competition to get into the four team playoff, and I will grant that those are the huskiesstorylines the uninformed masses likely prefer. However, there are ten conferences and the champions of those “other” 5 oftentimes sneak into the rankings and occasionally surprise people with big wins in bowl games. The Huskies have been in that mix on more than one occasion, and until someone comes along and takes the crown they have to be the favorites in the MAC. Two out-of-conference games will define Northern Illinois’ season. I don’t expect them to beat Ohio St., but if they can keep it respectable…say within two TDs…it’ll be an important moral victory. The following week they’ll need to go into Chestnut Hill and defeat the Eagles.

 

18 Boise State
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 9/4 vs. Washington, 9/12 at BYU, 11/20 vs. Air Force
Yep, they’re still here. The Broncos have settled into a comfort zone. They beat up on an inferior conference, rack up a bunch of wins, seem to have a boise-state-logospot in the lower end of the Top 25 reserved for them, & occasionally upset the apple cart with a win against a theoretically better opponent in a big bowl game. That formula won’t get them into the playoff discussion, but maybe…for now…they are happy where they are until the next round of conference upheaval.

 

19 Memphis
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/24 vs. Cincinnati, 10/17 vs. Ole Miss
The old Big East morphed into the American Athletic Conference a few years ago, but the AAC is about as similar to the Big East as McDonald’s is to memphishealthy food. Yet somebody’s got to win it, and the Tigers are my pick. It should be noted that the AAC has expanded with the addition of Navy and will have a conference title game for the first time in 2015. That’s cool, although I’m not sure that there is any conceivable matchup that’ll draw much interest. I’m predicting a Memphis-East Carolina championship game, with Memphis going on to compete in something yawn inducing like the St. Petersburg Bowl.

 

20 Fresno State
Last Season: 6-8
Key Games: 9/12 at Ole Miss, 10/24 at Air Force, 11/21 at BYU
I’ve always enjoyed watching Fresno’s ball games. They play an entertaining, up tempo, high scoring brand of football and have been sporadically fresnosuccessful over the years. The question is always how many points will their defense give up since many of their opponents tend to have similarly high powered offenses. I think this will be an “up” year for the Bulldogs, although to be successful they’ll need to win some tough games on the road, and to finish in the rankings will almost have to make it to the Mountain West title game.

 

21 Air Force
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/19 at Michigan St., 10/24 vs. Fresno St., 11/20 at Boise St.
Okay okay…I’m hedging my bets again. There’s probably no way that three Mountain West teams finish in the Top 25, even if it’s the latter portion. AirForceFalcons4Having said that, winning 8 or 9 games and upsetting one of the above mentioned key opponents would provide a tremendous boost to the Falcons’ chances. It’s not hard to prepare for their offensive attack…opponents know they’re going to run, run, run. But opponents still seem to have a difficult time stopping what they know is coming, as the Air Force rushing attack ranked 7th nationally in 2014 and they won ten games.

 

22 Georgia Tech
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/19 at Notre Dame, 10/10 at Clemson, 10/24 vs. Florida St., 11/28 vs. Georgia
Someone has to get beaten by Florida St. in the ACC championship, and I’m predicting it’ll be the Yellowjackets…again. A September battle in Southgatechlogocos-3 Bend looms large and could be the crucial point of the season. Tech is probably going to have to score a couple of huge upsets to sneak into the rankings, and I think they can do it.

 

23 Wisconsin
Last Season: 11/3
Key Games: 9/5 vs. Alabama, 10/10 at Nebraska
Replacing an All-World RB like Melvin Gordon is nearly impossible, but Wisconsin has had its fair share of really good tailbacks so WisconsinBadgersit could happen. However, I do think we’ll see a decline in production. When one looks at the Badgers’ schedule it becomes clear that a Top 25 ranking would be quite the accomplishment. The season opener against Alabama is a neutral site game in Dallas, but after that Wisconsin could conceivably reel off 9 or 10 wins. An October battle in Lincoln, NE will decide who gets throttled by Ohio St. in the Big Ten (which has 14 teams) title game.

 

24 Texas
Last Season: 6-7
Key Games: 9/5 at Notre Dame, 10/3 at TCU, 10/10 vs. Oklahoma, 12/5 at Baylor
The Longhorns haven’t had double digit wins since 2009. Will this be the season they get back their mojo?? Maybe…maybe not. I do think they will texasvastly improve over 2014’s losing record. Head coach Charlie Strong is entering his second year at the helm and I think he’ll get Texas back to its winning ways eventually, although more mediocrity will have the spoiled fanbase calling for his head, so who knows if he’ll be given a fair shake. The easy way to solve the problem is to win 8 or 9 games this year and atleast be in the Big 12 (which has ten teams) title conversation.

 

25 Michigan
Last Season: 5-7
Key Games: 10/17 vs. Michigan St., 11/28 vs. Ohio St.
Rome wasn’t built in a day, but I think new Wolverines’ head coach Jim Harbaugh will begin rebuilding the program with a solid inaugural season in michigan-wolverines-fan-gearthe captain’s chair. I believe they’ll be legitimate Big Ten & national championship contenders within three years. For now though, an 8 win season, getting back to a bowl game, & ending the season ranked for the first time in a few years will thrill the folks in Ann Arbor.

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

Last week I went 2-4-1, with Louisville & the Detroit Lions really letting me down. I am perfectly aware when I roll the dice and have come to expect that more often than not I lose those gambles, but there are times when I am actually pretty confident that a pick is as close to a lock as one can hope for in football and when I lose those it really stings. Unfortunately I have lost a lot of those this season, which is why my overall record now stands at 28-47-1. If I were a coach or being paid by anyone to do this I would have already been shown the door. Luckily I am my own boss here so I can just move forward and hope to do better this week. The college schedule is inexplicably polluted with top teams playing cupcakes, which seems weird so late in the season, and the NFL schedule is beginning to feel repetitive & tedious at this juncture, but I have cobbled together 7 games that should be entertaining enough.

 

 

 

Florida State (-31)            at            Maryland

This is one of those games where the outcome is almost a foregone conclusion, but the interesting thing is the spread. The 9-1 Seminoles will almost certainly beat the 4-6 Terrapins, but will they win by over 4 TDs?? Such large victories are not foreign to Florida St., as they have won over half of their games by more than 40 points. Meanwhile, Maryland, who I crazily ranked 15th in my pre-season Top 25, has lost a lot but they weren’t being blown out until their last two games. I am going out on a limb and predicting that Florida St. has a slightly off week and only wins by 20-28 points.

 

 

Rutgers                at            Cincinnati (-6)

It was the Bearcats that I picked to win The Big East and finish in the top 15, but even though they have an impressive 7-2 record it is their opponent this week, the Scarlet Knights, who are currently ranked in the Top 25. That could flip flop here with a Cincinnati victory. I think these are two evenly matched teams and it should be an exciting game, so when all other things are equal the home field advantage comes into play. I think Cincinnati wins & covers, and maybe next week we’ll see them ranked.

 

 

USC (-3.5)            at            UCLA

I wonder when the last time these two teams played against one another in a meaningful game?? It seems like the Bruins have been below average for a number of years, all while the Trojans have been constantly in the thick of the national championship conversation. This game could possibly decide who represents The Pac 12 in The Rose Bowl, assuming Oregon makes it to the title game. Both teams are ranked in the top 20, but one gets the feeling that USC is struggling to hold on (they’ve lost 2 out of their last 3) while UCLA is riding a 4 game winning streak. Normally I would go with the home team in a game like this, but it is quite telling that the boys in Vegas consider Southern Cal the favorite. The vibes are strong with this one, as I sense that the Trojans will seize the opportunity to save their season.

 

 

Texas Tech          at            Oklahoma State (-10)

I have really been enjoying The Big 12 this season, except for the part where my WV Mountaineers completely suck and are struggling to become bowl eligible after all the pre-season hype of a possible national title run. Anyway, these are both solid teams in the lower echelon of the Top 25, but after they clash one will obviously fall by the wayside while one remains ranked. I assume it’ll be a high scoring game and fun to watch. I am a little surprised that it’s a double digit spread, which is kind of disrespectful to a very talented Red Raider team. However, Tech has lost 2 out of their past 4 games and went to overtime to win the other two, so I suppose the odds make sense. I just have a feeling it’ll be a little bit closer than that though, so Texas Tech is the pick.

 

 

Stanford              at            Oregon (-20.5)

I have learned my lesson. The Ducks win and they win big. But after Alabama was knocked off their perch last week it is Oregon that sits in the driver’s seat while Kansas St. & Notre Dame battle for the #2 spot, so might they take their foot off the gas just a little bit?? Stanford is much more on the level of USC, who Oregon defeated by only 11 points, and Arizona St., who the Ducks beat by a mere 22 points, rather than the likes of Arizona, Washington, or Cal that were all destroyed by the boys in green by 30+ points. This’ll probably be one of those games that the oddsmakers have somehow magically pegged perfectly, meaning that either way I go I’ll be sweating it out right down to the last possession. I have too much respect for Stanford to believe that they’ll get smoked by 3 TDs, so I’ll pick them to cover the spread. I am sure I’ll regret it. So yeah…I guess I didn’t learn my lesson.

 

 

Tampa Bay (-1.5)             at            Carolina

Wow, did I ever have the Panthers figured wrong. I thought they’d be a playoff team and QB Cam Newton would continue his rise to prominence. Instead Newton is a headcase that is looking more like a bad mix of the worst of Vince Young & Donovan McNabb, and his supporting cast isn’t nearly as good as I’d thought they’d be. Conversely, the Bucs are riding rookie RB Doug Martin straight into playoff contention. Plain & simple…it’s over for Carolina, while Tampa has to keep winning to stay in contention in the ultra-competitive NFC.

 

 

Chicago                at            San Francisco (-5)

Earlier this week I thought this’d be a game featuring two backup quarterbacks. Both Bears’ signal caller and 49ers starter Alex Smith were injured last weekend, but it looks like Smith is good to go. Chicago will rely on former Redskins & Raiders QB Jason Campbell, who isn’t a bad second option. This was always going to be a defensive struggle no matter who was behind center, so I don’t think it matters all that much anyway. It’s this week Monday night game and it should be a low scoring affair with lots of handoffs & punts. I am sure the folks at ESPN are thrilled. At any rate, conventional wisdom favors the home team and the spread isn’t outrageous, so I’ll go with Frisco to pull out a yawn inspiring victory.

 

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 10

Well, I did it. I gave myself a bye week. It was actually kind of an accident. As usual Friday night snuck up on me, but I had other things going on and just wasn’t in a football kind of mood. But now we are back on track. Right now I am 26-43 and have discovered much to my surprise that the NFL is actually easier to forecast than the NCAA. I would have thought it’d be the other way around.

 

 

 

 

Louisville (-1.5)           at                     Syracuse

I suppose since I put both of these teams in my pre-season Top 25 I have an obligation to pick their game. Louisville has actually fared even better than I thought and currently find themselves undefeated & in the Top 10. The Orange, on the other hand, aren’t quite there yet. They need to win 2 out of their final 3 just to break even and possibly sneak into some lower tier bowl game that no one will watch. I don’t think it’s gonna happen this year, and I don’t think Louisville will have much trouble winning this game. I am a bit surprised the spread is so small.

 

 

Oregon State              at                    Stanford (-4)

This should be an excellent game. Both teams are ranked in the top 15 and could sneak into Rose Bowl consideration if the Oregon Ducks make it to the national championship game. But first they need a victory here. I am going to go against my usual modus operandi of leaning toward the home team by picking a slight upset. I have watched both teams play a couple of times and the Beavers seem like a better team.

 

 

Kansas State (-6)                     at                    TCU

K-St. is in a real battle with Oregon to see who’ll earn the right to be defeated by Alabama in the title game. It looks like, because of the way the BCS computer calculate the various criteria, that the Ducks will ultimately be that team, assuming both they and the Wildcats remain undefeated. But can K-St. stay unbeaten?? The majority of the experts seem to think so, and who am I to argue?? However, I sincerely believe that the Horned Frogs are a very talented team that shouldn’t be overlooked. I think Kansas State wins this game, but it very well might be in OT or with a last second field goal. So I’ll take TCU to cover the points.

 

 

Oregon (-28.5)                  at                California

Wow…both Oregon & Oregon State on the slate this week?? Call it the Charlie Simms Special. Hooah!! Anyway, if the Ducks can stay clean in their remaining games they’ll earn the right to lose to Alabama in the national championship game. They’ll get one of those wins here, but by how much?? The spread…more than 4 TDs…is awfully big. Obviously the 3-7 Golden Bears aren’t that good, but are they that bad?? I get very nervous about huge spreads like this, but Oregon has motivation. They need “style points” to impress voters and get all the BCS advantages they’ll need to edge Kansas State for #2. They have beaten every opponent they have faced soundly…three TDS or more…except Fresno St. (who they defeated by 17) and the USC Trojans, who they edged by 11 points. Something tells me this spread is just a bit too big and that Oregon will win by only 20-25 points.

 

 

Tennessee                    at                 Miami (-6)

The 3-6 Titans get starting QB Jake Locker back this week, which should be a big boost. However, the 4-4 Dolphins have won 3 out their last 4 games and have lost 3 games by a total of 9 points, two of them in overtime. Miami feels like a team on the rise, while Tennessee seems like they are stuck in neutral. But with the exception of a 30-9 trouncing of the beleaguered NY Jets every Dolphin victory has been very close, so the 6 point spread looks rather large and I don’t have any faith that Miami can cover, so Tennessee gets the nod.

 

 

Detroit (-2.5)                at              Minnesota

I had these teams combining for just 11 wins in 2012 in my season preview. Instead they have 9 victories between them already, just past the halfway point of the season. That being said they are both afterthoughts in a division with the Packers & the Bears. I’m not saying the playoffs aren’t a possibility for either club, but it’s going to be a tough road. So this game is all about pride. Unfortunately for the Vikings their star wideout Percy Harvin is likely to be watching this game from the sideline due to an ankle injury, and that will likely cripple their offense. That makes the Lions an easy choice.

 

 

Atlanta (-2.5)                  at              New Orleans

In my pre-season predictions I said about the NFC South that “The surprise might be in Atlanta, where I’m just not sold on the Falcons. QB Matt Ryan will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and by then I think he’ll be ready to flee The Peach State.” and said they’d finish 7-9. I may have been slightly wrong since the Falcons are the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten team. On the flip side I said that “I do not believe that a team can go through the turmoil that the Saints have experienced this offseason and not be affected.”, but still said they’d go 9-7 & win the division. The complete accuracy of that statement is still undecided. New Orleans did in fact get off to a rough start, but it remains to be seen whether they can recover and get back in the playoff hunt. It seems pretty clear that the division crown is out of reach, but a victory here could shift momentum in a positive direction and start a push toward a wildcard berth. I don’t believe for one second that Atlanta will go undefeated, and it might actually help them to lose now instead of at the end of the season. The Saints are the pick.

 

 

 

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2012 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

As I write this I am suffering from a hacking cough reminiscent of the coal miners in that black lung commercial from a few years back. I’ll be just fine after a lovely steroid shot from my local neighborhood health care provider, but feeling this way just emphasizes the point that summer is nearly over and we are on the cusp of cooler temperatures, falling leaves, and the sweet scents of pumpkin, apples, cinnamon, & cloves filling the air. As much as I love summertime and hate to see it go, one thing that totally rocks about autumn is the return of football. It is time once again to look into the ol’ crystal ball and see what the college football season may have in store. Once again let me remind readers that I am far from an expert. I am not compensated for my expertise and have never claimed to be very good at this, so wager with caution if your choices are based on what you read here.

 

 

 

1          Oklahoma

Last season…10-3

Key games…10/13 vs. Texas, 10/27 vs. Notre Dame, 11/24 vs. Oklahoma St.

I just feel like the team who wins the super tough Big 12 has to be in the national championship conversation, and I think that team will be the Sooners. It is interesting to note that all three of the crucial games noted above will be played in Norman, which will be vital to the team’s title aspirations.

 

2          Michigan

Last season…11-2

Key games…9/1 vs. Alabama, 9/22 at Notre Dame, 11/24 at Ohio State

Michigan football is back on track following the debacle that was The Fraudriguez Era. One must give much respect to the powers-that-be in Ann Arbor, because this schedule is brutal, especially starting the season against defending national champion Alabama when most other teams will be playing cupcakes. QB Denard Robinson has to be considered a leading Heisman contender and is a threat to take it in for 6 everytime he touches the ball.

 

3          South Carolina

Last season…11-2

Key games…10/6 vs. Georgia, 10/13 at LSU

The Gamecocks season likely rests largely on how well junior RB Marcus Lattimore comes back from a torn knee ligament suffered last October. If he’s as good as he was before the injury bright things might be ahead in Columbia. The October 13th contest at LSU is huge, and I would not at all be surprised if we see an upset.

 

4          USC

Last season…10-2

Key games…11/3 vs. Oregon, 11/24 vs. Notre Dame

The Trojans are back in the championship mix after suffering thru 2 years of probation and a post-season ban. Most talking heads are handing them the #1 ranking to start the season, but I think that in the long term other teams from tougher conferences will pass them up. QB Matt Barkley decided to come back for his senior year rather than enter the NFL Draft, which will be an immense help. Barkley will be prominent in the Heisman discussion.

 

5          Wisconsin

Last season…11-3

Key games…9/29 at Nebraska, 11/17 vs. Ohio State

The Badgers are my kind of football team…smashmouth running, tough defense, concentrate on the fundamentals. Are they exciting to watch?? Probably not for most folks. But they get the job done and always seem to be in the midst of the battle for the Big 10 title. RB Montee Ball is back for his senior season and is the highest returning Heisman vote getter from last year (he finished 4th). Last season the Badgers were led by transfer QB Russell Wilson, and in 2012 they will start another transfer behind center, former Maryland signal caller Danny O’Brien. The formula certainly worked before and I see no reason why it can’t again.

 

6          Florida St.

Last season…9-4

Key games…9/22 vs. Clemson, 11/8 vs. Virginia Tech, 11/24 vs. Florida.

Coach Jimbo Fisher enters his 3rd season as head coach and is slowly but surely moving from underneath the considerable shadow of legendary former coach Bobby Bowden. QB EJ Manuel returns for his senior season, and though no one would likely put Manuel on the same level as fabled former Seminole signal callers like Charlie Ward, Danny Kanell, or Chris Weinke (2 of those 3 won the Heisman Trophy), one cannot underestimate the value of an experienced veteran field general. I’ve never had a ton of respect for the ACC, and I see no reason why this team shouldn’t blow thru their schedule with relative ease, especially with the two big games noted above being played in Tallahassee.

 

7          Alabama

Last season…12-1

Key games…9/1 vs. Michigan, 9/15 at Arkansas, 11/3 at LSU

It’s not that I don’t think the defending national champions won’t be good, it’s just that I think their schedule is so tough that it is going to be nearly impossible to maintain the heights that they have achieved the past few years, especially with RB Trent Richardson now plying his trade in the NFL. I’m predicting an upset loss to Michigan in the season opener, which will quickly all but end the dream of a repeat for the Tide. I still think this is a team that’ll secure 9 or 10 wins, which wouldn’t be bad considering their fierce schedule.

 

8          Nebraska

Last season…9-4

Key games…9/29 vs. Wisconsin, 10/27 vs. Michigan

The Cornhuskers acquitted themselves quite nicely in their inaugural Big 10 season, just as your humble Potentate of Profundity predicted. Now that all the hype is over and the novelty has worn off they can get down to business. This is another team, like the previously mentioned Wisconsin Badgers, that tends to stick with straight ahead, no frills, fundamentally sound football…and it works. I like that their two biggest games are both at home, and that should go a long way in helping to ensure another 9 win season.

 

9          Oregon

Last year…12-2

Key games…11/3 at USC

Don’t let the 384 flashy uniform combinations fool you…the Ducks are a formidable football foe for any opponent. Their season essentially boils down to one game versus the mighty Trojans in Los Angeles. Whoever wins that game likely wins the Pac-12 and will be in the hunt for a national championship.

 

10       BYU

Last year…10-3

Key games…9/20 at Boise St., 10/20 at Notre Dame, 10/27 at Georgia Tech

The Cougars enter their 2nd season as an independent, which I am not so sure is a good thing. Eventually they will have to get back into a conference in order to survive the ever changing college football landscape. However, for now it looks like they are having no problems putting together an interesting & competitive schedule, which should earn them respect if they are able to win some big games. It’s a tall order for sure, but I am betting that they’ll pull off an upset or two or three. It must be noted that I put this team in the same exact position in last year’s pre-season poll, but despite finishing with 10 wins they just missed being ranked the Top 25, settling for the top “others receiving votes” spot. That would seem to indicate that they might need to finish undefeated to receive any type of recognition.

 

11       Cincinnati

Last year…10-3

Key games…9/29 vs. Virginia Tech, 10/26 at Louisville

As I said last year, someone’s got to win the Big East, right?? The conference is depleted this season due to the departure of West Virginia to the Big 12, and next season it will go thru a major overhaul when Pitt & Syracuse flee to the ACC and Central Florida, Memphis, Houston, & SMU join. For 2012 though the race looks to be wide open, and I am picking the Bearcats in a coin flip to emerge at the top of the pack.

 

12         Tennessee

Last year…5-7

Key games…9/15 vs. Florida, 9/29 at Georgia, 10/20 vs. Alabama, 10/27 at South Carolina

My first real shot in the dark for 2012. When I think of the Volunteers I think of Rocky Top, Peyton Manning, and 102k fans rockin’ the checkered end zones at Neyland Stadium. However, the past few years have been a struggle in Knoxville, where the Vols have finished 7-6, 6-7, and 5-7. 2012 is head coach Derek Dooley’s 3rd season and his team will be lead on the field by junior QB Tyler Bray, who is already being touted as a top NFL prospect. I realize that this team plays in the SEC, the toughest conference in America. Logic would dictate that there are atleast 7 teams just in the conference better than Tennessee on paper. But I just don’t believe that a team with so much tradition and history will stay down forever. Dooley is the son of legendary former Georgia coach Vince Dooley, so there’s got to be something in the genes, right??

 

13       Arkansas

Last season…11-2

Key games…9/15 vs. Alabama, 11/10 at South Carolina, 11/23 vs. LSU

It has been a tumultuous offseason in Fayetteville, with the scandalous departure of former coach Bobby Petrino and the hiring of journeyman coach John L. Smith. Normally I wouldn’t have much faith in a team that has undergone such turmoil, but the return of senior QB Tyler Wilson as well as the re-emergence of junior stud RB Knile Davis should provide much needed stability.

 

14       Northern Illinois

Last season…11-3

Key games…9/1 vs. Iowa, 9/22 vs. Kansas

I really enjoyed watching MAC games last year, and the Huskies were the cream of the crop in that conference. A few years ago my alma mater Marshall left the MAC for C-USA, and I contend to this day that it was a shortsighted decision. Out of conference victories against teams from more respected leagues will be vital to this team’s success.

 

15       Maryland

Last season…2-10

Key games…9/22 at West Virginia, 11/10 at Clemson, 11/17 vs. Florida St.

Head coach Randy Edsall enters his 2nd year at the helm in College Park looking to rebound from a horrible 2011. My pick is based solely on my vibes, not on any concrete evidence that the Terrapins have improved in any significant way. Edsall is simply too good of a coach to have another putrid season.

 

16       Central Florida

Last season…5-7

Key games…9/8 at Ohio State, 9/29 vs. Missouri, 10/13 vs. Southern Miss.

Did you know that UCF is the largest university in the state of Florida and the 2nd largest in the United States?? Obviously that doesn’t automatically translate into football supremacy, but it should count for something. This will be the Knights last season in C-USA before joining the Big East in 2013, and I am predicting that they’ll go out with a bang. I do not believe that they’ll beat Ohio St., and would be surprised if they defeat Missouri, but those games can provide valuable seasoning before this team gets into the meat of their conference schedule.

 

17       LSU

Last season…13-1

Key games…10/13 vs. South Carolina, 11/3 at Alabama, 11/23 at Arkansas

A year ago I predicted that the Bayou Bengals would suffer losses “to out-of-conference foes West Virginia & Oregon and atleast two fellow SEC teams.” I was wrong. Way wrong. So now I find myself again in the position of predicting a finish for LSU far lower than what the “experts” are envisioning. The SEC is just too competitive for the same two teams…the Tigers and ‘Bama…to continue to dominate every year. Other teams will rise. They will be hellbent & determined to defeat the perceived top two and prove their worth. One cannot have a huge target on one’s back for long without eventually being taken down. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

 

18       East Carolina

Last season…5-7

Key games…9/8 at South Carolina, 9/15 at Southern Miss., 10/4 at UCF

I’ve had the opportunity to watch the Pirates play for many years against both the West Virginia Mountaineers and my Marshall Thundering Herd, and I’ve always liked what I see. It would be surprising to see two C-USA teams sneak into the Top 25, but it could happen. This will be head coach Ruffin McNeil’s third season in the captain’s seat, and it is very important that he get his team over the hump. I am betting he will.

 

19       Auburn

Last season…8-5

Key games…9/1 vs. Clemson, 9/22 vs. LSU, 10/6 vs. Arkansas, 11/10 vs. Georgia, 11/24 at Alabama

The Tigers went from being the undefeated national champions in 2010 to an 8 win season last year after losing Heisman Trophy winning QB Cam Newton to the NFL. That’s really not that bad of a drop off all things considered. 4 of the 5 key contests noted above will be played in the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium, and I think it quite conceivable that the War Eagles could win 3 out of the 5. An 8 or 9 win season in the SEC should be enough to merit Top 25 consideration.

 

20       Louisville

Last season…7-6

Key games…10/26 vs. Cincinnati, 11/10 at Syracuse

I picked Cincinnati to win the Big East in a coin flip. The loser of that toss up?? The Cardinals. But that doesn’t mean I believe they’ll be bad, just that their conference title hopes will boil down to one game that I think they’ll lose. I like what head coach Charlie Strong has done at The ‘Ville the past couple of seasons, and think their trajectory is still heading upward. Sophomore quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is only going to get better, which is bad news for the rest of the conference.

 

21       Notre Dame

Last season…8-5

Key games…9/15 at Michigan State, 9/22 vs. Michigan, 10/27 at Oklahoma, 11/24 at USC

Here’s the thing about the Irish…they can lose 3 or 4 games and still sneak into the Top 25 because the media just fawns all over them like they do our current President. So even though they have a murderous schedule and will almost certainly lose atleast 3 of the 4 matchups noted above it won’t matter as long as they take care of business against teams they should beat easily like Navy, Purdue, Pitt, and Wake Forest. The big question right now is at QB, where redshirt freshman Everett Golson has been named the starter due to the one game suspension of junior Tommy Rees. One has to wonder how short of a leash coach Brian Kelly will have on Golson as the season progresses. In 2011 Kelly vacillated between Rees and Dayne Crist, and that instability was likely atleast partially to blame for a couple of losses. If Kelly pulls Golson at halftime of game 2 or 3 it could once again torpedo the entire season.

 

22       Texas

Last season…8-5

Key games…9/29 at Oklahoma State, 10/13 vs. Oklahoma

The once mighty Longhorns bottomed out in 2010 with a 5-7 record. Last season they rebounded a bit, but still didn’t rise to the heights to which they are accustomed. Sure they beat the teams they were supposed to, but fell flat against ranked opponents. Will that change in 2012?? I think it just might. Coach Mack Brown must choose a quarterback…either sophomore David Ash or junior Case McCoy…and stick with him. At the moment it looks like Ash will begin the season as the top signal caller, but it seems likely that McCoy will also see action. I have never been a fan of utilizing a two QB system, so we’ll see how it all shakes out. All indications are that this is a loaded team at most other positions, but nothing will drag a team down faster than poor play at the game’s most important position.

 

23       Syracuse

Last season…5-7

Key games…9/8 vs. USC, 11/3 at Cincinnati, 11/10 vs. Louisville

Am I hedging my bets?? I suppose. I mentioned previously that the Big East looks to be a wide open race, but would be surprised if three teams make it into the Top 25. And while I believe that Cincinnati & Louisville will wage a head-to-head battle for the title I won’t be totally shocked if another club inserts itself into the mix. The once mighty Orange…alma mater of running backs Ernie Davis, Jim Brown, & Larry Csonka, quarterback Donovan McNabb, and wide receiver Art Monk…have fallen on hard times recently, posting only one winning record in the past decade, and have lost the respect of most fans & pundits. This will be their last season in the Big East before going to the ACC, and I think they’ll want to go out with their heads held high. Coach Doug Marrone is entering his 4th year, and he will have senior QB Ryan Nassib to lead the offense. No one is going to confuse Nassib with John Elway, but I put a lot of value in a veteran presence behind center. Don’t be surprised if the Orange win 8 or 9 games and sneak into the rankings. Remember…you heard it here first.

 

24       Oklahoma St.

Last season…12-1

Key games…9/29 vs. Texas, 11/10 vs. West Virginia, 11/24 at Oklahoma

The Cowboys came within a whisper of playing for the national championship in 2011 and probably should have received the opportunity. That being said, in 2012 they face the daunting task of replacing star QB Brandon Weeden and all-world WR Justin Blackmon…no easy task. The Big 12 may be the best football conference top to bottom outside the SEC, so wins won’t come easy, but I feel comfortable giving this team 8 or 9 victories which should be enough to sneak into the Top 25.

 

25     Boise St.

Last season…12-1

Key games…12/31 at Michigan State, 9/20 vs. BYU

The Broncos will join the Big East next year, and as maligned as that conference is it’ll still be a better situation than this team has been in for awhile. They have achieved double digit wins 5 years in a row but haven’t been in legitimate national title contention because of the weakness of their schedule. That won’t change much this season, and they’ll probably have to win atleast 11 games to be taken seriously. Complicating matters is the need to replace former quarterback Kellen Moore, a 4 year starter who led the team to 50 victories and threw for nearly 15k yards and over 140 touchdowns. However, while a weak schedule won’t get a team much love in regards to playing for a championship it should help with keeping them ranked.

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