USC

2013 NCAA Bowl Previews & Predictions

Before we dive in headfirst there are a few ground rules that need to be reviewed and some things that need to be said once so that I don’t find myself repeating them a dozen times. First of all, these picks are completely separate from our Pigskin Picks of Profundity. You will see no point spreads here. There are just too many games to track down all that data and the total random nature of bowl games makes assessing such things total folly anyway even though I am sure the folks in Vegas will do their best. Secondly, I have some strong opinions when it comes to the entire bowl system. I think the BCS is a load of crap and I am glad it is going away. The 4 team playoff we’re getting next year is a positive change and I would not mind a bit if it eventually expanded to 6 or even 8 teams. There are way way way too many bowl games (35 counting the national title game), and I don’t think it’d be a bad thing to have an 8 team playoff and something like 25-30 bowl games. I do not believe that 6-6 teams should have their mediocrity awarded with a post-season game. My threshold for bowl eligibility would be 7 games, but unfortunately I do not make the rules. The world would be a better place if I did. I am not a fan of corporate bowl names or bowl games named after a particular location. If it were up to me the New Mexico, Las Vegas, New Orleans, Beef O’Brady’s, Russell Athletic, GoDaddy, & Capital One Bowls (just to name a few) would go away and games like the Cherry, Freedom, Gotham, Pineapple, Tangerine, & Copper Bowls would be revived. I would also like to see the bowl season wrapped up by New Year’s Day, with the only games played after being the national semifinals and the championship game. Having said all that the reality is what it is and as a football fan I will enjoy the next several weeks. There are probably atleast a dozen…possibly as many as 15…games out of these 35 that have the potential to be really entertaining, and I suppose that we can always hope that the others produce a higher level of amusement that we have a right to expect. As always I will remind you that I am not very good at this so please…if you must wager…don’t bet the farm based on anything you read here. Happy Holidays!!

 

 

 

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NMNew Mexico Bowl

Albuquerque, NM

12/21 at 2pm on ESPN

Washington St. (6-6) vs. Colorado St. (7-6)

I know absolutely nothing about either team so this is a total shot in the dark for me.

Me:        Washington St.

Zach:     Colorado St.

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Las Vegas Bowlvegas

Las Vegas, NV

12/21 at 3:30pm on ABC

Fresno State (11-1) vs. USC (9-4)

Vegas baby…Vegas!! The Bulldogs have had a very nice season and fell just one game short of being a BCS buster. QB Derek Carr is being talked about as a potential 1st round pick in next spring’s NFL Draft, although one has to wonder whether or not he can have a more memorable career than his older brother David. I suppose it can’t possibly be less memorable. Meanwhile this isn’t exactly where the Trojans probably thought they’d end up when envisioning the season. Former head coach Lane Kiffin is long gone and interim head coach Ed Orgeron quit when he didn’t get the full time gig. I have no idea who is even coach them in this game. Largely due to that, and also because Fresno State is a legitimately good team I’m going to lean in that direction.

Me:        Fresno St.

Zach:     USC

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Potato Bowltater

Boise, ID

12/21 at 5:30pm on ESPN

Buffalo(8-4) vs. San Diego St. (7-5)

Atleast this will be somewhat entertaining to watch on the blue turf in Boise.

Me:        San Diego St.

Zach:     San Diego St.

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New Orleans Bowlnawleans

New Orleans, LA

12/21 at 9pm on ESPN

Tulane (7-5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-3)

I’m thinking it’d be a good idea to take the over on this one. I had Tulane in my pre-season Top 25 but they weren’t quite as good as I thought. I still like them here though.

Me:        Tulane

Zach:     Louisiana-Lafayette

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Beef O’Brady’s Bowlbeef-o-bradys22

Tampa, FL

12/23 at 2pm on ESPN

East Carolina (9-3) vs. Ohio (7-5)

For anyone who is curious Beef O’Brady’s is a sports bar/restaurant franchise in the southeastern US. I have no idea if it’s any good because I’ve never seen one. As for this game it’s the MAC vs. C-USA and might actually end up being a rather fun game to watch. I’ve watched both teams play and the vibes are telling me that the Bobcats might be the slightly better team.

Me:        Ohio

Zach:     East Carolina

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Hawaii Bowlhawaii

Honolulu, HI

Christmas Eve at 8pm on ESPN

Boise St. (8-4) vs. Oregon St. (6-6)

Congratulations men…your mediocrity has been awarded with a trip to Hawaii for Christmas!! I have to believe these players are psyched for such an awesome trip. Boise State head coach Chris Petersen is now their former coach, as he finally…after years of rumors & flirtations…left the Broncos to be the new head man for the Washington Huskies. That means they’ll have an interim coach for this game. Meanwhile the Beavers are probably better than their record indicates but they do come into this game on a 5 game losing skid. I’m going to go out on a limb and pick Oregon State to break that slide and get back on track.

Me:        Oregon St.

Zach:     Oregon St.

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Little Caesars BowlLittleCeasers1

Detroit, MI

12/26 at 6pm on ESPN

Pitt (6-6) vs. Bowling Green (10-3)

As opposed to the teams heading to island paradise these two teams are headed to Detroit. Fortunately the bowl game is privately funded since the city is bankrupt. I wonder if a crack pipe and some bath salts is part of the swag each team will receive?? Anyway, Bowling Green is a much much better team and I’ll be disappointed if they don’t win this game by three TDs.

Me:        Bowling Green

Zach:     Pitt

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Poinsettia Bowlpoinsettia

San Diego, CA

12/26 at 9:30pm on ESPN

Utah St. (8-5) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1)

Utah State was defeated by Fresno State in the Mountain West title game, while Northern Illinois fell one win short of the BCS when they fell to Bowling Green in the MC title game. The Huskies are led by QB Jordan Lynch who placed 3rd in Heisman voting and that is good enough for me to pick Northern Illinois.

Me:        Northern Illinois

Zach:     Northern Illinois

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Military Bowlmilitary-officer-1

Annapolis, MD

12/27 at 2:30pm on ESPN

Marshall (9-4) vs. Maryland (7-5)

Full disclosure. I am a 1994 graduate of Marshall. I was there when QB Chad Pennington played his first game. I saw Randy Moss be a man amongst boys. I witnessed the 1992 1-AA National Championship firsthand. So I will not be picking against my Herd.

Me:        Marshall

Zach:     Marshall

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Texas Bowltexas

Houston, TX

12/27 at 6pm on ESPN

Syracuse (6-6) vs. Minnesota (8-4)

I give a lot of grief to Syracuse, but as I recall they pasted my WV Mountaineers in a bowl game last year so all bets are off and records don’t really matter during bowl season. All I know about Minnesota is that their head coach keeps having seizures on the sideline and really should resign. I suppose I’ll go with the Gophers.

Me:        Minnesota

Zach:     Minnesota

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Fight Hunger Bowlfighthunger

San Francisco, CA

12/27 at 9:30pm on ESPN

BYU (8-4) vs. Washington (8-4)

I think this may be a sleeper game but I have to wonder how many people will actually be watching. Washington just lost their coach to USC so we have yet another interim situation for the bowl game. I’ve always liked BYU so I suppose I’ll go with the Cougars.

Me:        BYU

Zach:     BYU

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Pinstripe Bowljoel

Bronx, NY

12/28 at Noon on ESPN

Rutgers (6-6)  vs.  Notre Dame(8-4)

Notre Dame has really flown under the radar in 2013. I know that 8-4 isn’t considered a good season in South Bend, but a year after playing for the national championship and (I am assuming) losing a plethora of seniors I’d have to say they’ve had a solid year. The Scarlet Knights are preparing for their move to The Big Ten (which has 12 teams) next season and this game should be an indicator as to whether or not they are ready to compete on that level. I’m going to say that they are and will prove it here.

Me:        Rutgers

Zach:     Notre Dame

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Belk Bowlbelk

Charlotte, NC

12/28 at 3:20pm on ESPN

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

Cincinnati beat Duke in this game last season. I expect that they’ll handle the other Carolina team just as effortlessly.

Me:        Cincinnati

Zach:     North Carolina

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Russell Athletic Bowlrussell

Orlando, FL

12/28 at 6:45pm on ESPN

Miami, FL (9-3) vs. Louisville (11-1)

Louisville had much higher hopes coming into the year. It’s amazing what one loss will do to implode an entire season. Meanwhile it looks like The U is on the verge of being back. I think Louisville has the better quarterback…but Miami has the better overall team.

Me:        Miami, FL

Zach:     Miami, FL

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Buffalo Wild Wings Bowlwings

Tempe, AZ

12/28 at 10:15pm on ESPN

Michigan (7-5)  vs. Kansas State (7-5)

The Wolverines really lost their way in 2013. I thought they’d be a Top 10 team and obviously I was way wrong. K-St. has had a quietly solid season residing in the middle of the Big 12 (which has ten teams) pack. I’m not going to abandon Michigan now.

Me:        Michigan

Zach:     Michigan

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Armed Forces Bowlarmedforces

Fort Worth, TX

12/30 at 11:45am on ESPN

Middle Tennessee (8-4)  vs.  Navy (7-4)

So we have an Armed Forces Bowl AND a Military Bowl?? Seems excessive doesn’t it. As much as I’d love to go with The Academy here I believe that Middle Tennessee is more battle tested (ironic) against better competition and will prevail.

Me:        Middle Tennessee

Zach:     Middle Tennessee

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Music City Bowl

Nashville, TN

12/30 at 3:15pm on ESPNmusic

Ole Miss (7-5)  vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

I can pretty much assure y’all that I won’t be watching this game. It just doesn’t seem the least bit interesting to me. That being said I suppose I’ll go with the Rebels.

Me:        Ole Miss

Zach:     Georgia Tech

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Alamo Bowlalamo

San Antonio, TX

12/30 at 6:45pm on ESPN

Oregon (10-2)  vs. Texas (8-4)

This isn’t where the Ducks wanted to be playing. But after two late season losses at Stanford and Arizona they didn’t even make it to the Pac 12 title game. This will be the swan song for Texas coach Mack Brown who was gently persuaded to resign recently. Because of the emotion involved with that situation, the fact that Oregon might be suffering from a strong case of “Why should we give a damn about this stupid game??”-itis, and the fact that the game is being played less than two hours from the Texas campus I’m going to go with the underdogs.

Me:        Texas

Zach:     Oregon

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Holiday BowlDocHolliday

San Diego, CA

12/30 at 10:15pm on ESPN

Arizona St. (10-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

The Sun Devils made a decent run at a Pac 12 title but couldn’t overcome Stanford in the championship contest. Tech was a middle-of-the-road Big 12 team that is in the midst of a 5 game losing swoon. Clearly Arizona State is the better team, but I am expecting a high scoring close game.

Me:        Arizona St.

Zach:     Arizona St.

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Independence Bowlindependence

Shreveport, LA

New Year’s Eve at 12:30pm on ESPN

Arizona (7-5)  vs. Boston College (7-5)

I believe they are officially calling this game something else this year…something prosaic & corporate. But I am refusing to play along. Rich Fraudriguez has the Wildcats headed in the right direction, and they can take pride in the fact that they pulled off a huge November upset of Oregon. BC has one of the best running backs in college football even though no one had heard of him until about 2 weeks ago. I cannot bring myself to pull for the evil assclown that coaches Arizona so I am picking the Eagles to win yet another game that no one will watch because no one cares.

Me:        Boston College

Zach:     Arizona

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Sun Bowlsun

El Paso, TX

New Year’s Eve at 2pm on CBS

Virginia Tech (8-4)  vs.  UCLA (9-3)

I haven’t heard all that much about the Hokies this season although it seems like they had a solid season. The Bruins had hoped for a Pac 12 title but back-to-back midseason losses at Stanford and Oregon torpedoed those chances. I think UCLA plays against better competition in a better conference so that’s my pick.

Me:        UCLA

Zach:     UCLA

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Liberty Bowlliberty

Memphis, TN

New Year’s Eve at 4pm on ESPN

Rice (10-3)  vs. Mississippi St. (6-6)

Admittedly I have some residual bitterness after the Owls beat down my Marshall Thundering Herd in the C-USA title game. I just can’t bring myself to pick them. But I also believe that Mississippi St…as mediocre as they may be…has been battle tested in the SEC. Therefore I’m going with the Bulldogs.

Me:        Mississippi St.

Zach:     Rice

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Chick-Fil-A Bowlchickfila

Atlanta, GA

New Year’s Eve at 8pm on ESPN

Duke (10-3)  vs. Texas A&M (8-4)

This is the old Peach Bowl, but unlike most other corporate bowl games I actually like Chick-Fil-A so I’ll utilize the name. I think the Blue Devils’ record is probably a bit…bloated. The ACC is a rather pedestrian league with the exception of Florida State, who pummeled Duke by 5 TDs in the title game. We don’t know whether or not this will be the collegiate farewell for Aggies’ QB Johnny Manziel, but if it is one would have to think that he’d really like to go out in style.

Me:        Texas A&M

Zach:     Texas A&M

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Gator Bowlgator

Jacksonville, FL

New Year’s Day at Noon on ESPN2

Nebraska (8-4)  vs. Georgia (8-4)

If memory serves me correctly I believe these two met last year in a bowl game. I could look it up but does it really matter?? Both teams underachieved this season and will have to find motivation to end the season on a positive note. The Cornhuskers’ coach Bo Pelini is a brick or two or three shy of a load, and as entertaining as that is I can’t imagine that it is healthy for the team. The Bulldogs will be without quarterback Aaron Murray, whose senior campaign ended early with an ACL injury. I am expecting this game to be a low scoring defensive struggle with the Bulldogs coming out on top.

Me:        Georgia

Zach:     Georgia

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Heart of Dallas Bowlnap

Dallas, TX

New Year’s Day at Noon on ESPNU

UNLV (7-5)   vs.  North Texas (8-4)

Nothing proves the complete inconsequentiality of a bowl game then it being shown on ESPNU. I know nothing about these teams and doubt if I’ll watch this game at all. I guess I’ll go with UNLV.

Me:        UNLV

Zach:     UNLV

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Capital One BowlSamuel-L-Jackson-One-Million-Moms

Orlando, FL

New Year’s Day at 1pm on ABC

Wisconsin (9-3)  vs.  South Carolina (10-2)

Oh boy…a bowl game named after a credit card. I think I just threw up in my mouth a little bit. However, despite the game’s unfortunate name it should actually be a fun battle to watch. Will South Carolina’s defensive wunderkind Jadeveon Clowney be able to stop the Badger running attack?? Can Steve Spurrier pull out enough big plays to overcome Wisconsin’s ground & pound attack?? The Vibes are telling me that Wisconsin’s three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust approach just might work.

Me:        Wisconsin

Zach:     South Carolina

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Outback Bowloutback

Tampa, FL

New Year’s Day at 1pm on ESPN

Iowa (8-4)  vs.  LSU (9-3)

Iowa is in a New Year’s Day bowl game?? I hadn’t noticed that they were that good. Meanwhile this is just about what most expected from LSU. They also will be without their starting quarterback as senior Zach Mettenberger due to a torn ACL. I think that tips the scales in Iowa’s favor.

Me:        Iowa

Zach:     Iowa

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Rose Bowlrose

Pasadena, CA

New Year’s Day at 5pm on ESPN

Stanford (11-2)  vs. Michigan State (12-1)

Okay now THIS is a game to look forward to. I am predicting that the winner of this game will secure for themselves a Top 5 ranking entering next season. The Spartans defense is tough and I think they’ll keep the scoring to a minimum, but at the end of the day I like Stanford to pull out a close one and take home their 2nd straight Rose Bowl trophy.

Me:        Stanford

Zach:     Michigan St.

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Fiesta Bowlmassacre

Glendale, AZ

New Year’s Day at 8:30pm on ESPN

Central Florida (11-1)    vs.  Baylor (11-1)

This is going to be ugly. I am having flashbacks to when Mike Tyson used to maul his opponents and get a knockout in the first round. Atleast we’ll all have the opportunity to go to bed early if we so choose. To my complete shock Zach is picking the upset.

Me:        Baylor

Zach:     UCF

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Sugar Bowlsugar

New Orleans, LA

1/2 at 8:30pm on ESPN

Oklahoma (10-2)   vs.  Alabama (11-1)

Everyone and their brother expected The Tide to be playing for another national title, but they were beaten by a miracle against Auburn. There’s been a lot of chatter lately about head coach Nick Saban bolting for Texas but he seems to have nipped that in the bud by agreeing to a contract extension. The Sooners have to be chomping at the bit knowing that they are probably better than their record shows and also salivating at the thought that Alabama is beatable…atleast in theory. I think this will be a fantastic game for 3+ quarters, but ‘Bama just has a little too much depth & talent for Oklahoma to overcome. Zach is not only predicting that the Tide will roll, but that they’ll win by 49 POINTS!!

Me:        Alabama

Zach:     Alabama

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Orange Bowlorange

Miami, FL

1/3 at 8:30pm on ESPN

Clemson (10-2)   vs.  Ohio St. (12-1)

Everyone kept saying that the Buckeyes were overrated and hadn’t played anybody. That was proven to be true in the Big Ten title game when they were handled by Michigan State. Clemson was beaten by #1 Florida State and in-state rival South Carolina…no shame in either of those losses. I just don’t have much faith in Ohio State’s defense. I think Clemson QB Tajh Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins will both come up huge in their final collegiate game and lead the Tigers to a double digit victory.

Me:        Clemson

Zach:     Clemson

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Cotton Bowlcotton

Arlington, TX

1/3 at 7:30pm on Fox

Oklahoma St. (10-2)  vs. Missouri (11-2)

This may as well be called the What Might Have Been Bowl. The Cowboys went into their final game against in-state rival Oklahoma with a chance to secure a conference title but fell short. The Tigers had an outside shot at a national championship spot before losing their conference title game. I look for this to be a high scoring affair with lots of big plays. It feels like it may even be an overtime kind of game. I’m picking Oklahoma State to pull off the victory by a field goal.

Me:        Oklahoma St.

Zach:     Oklahoma St.

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Compass Bowlcompass

Birmingham, AL

1/4 at 1pm on ESPN

Vanderbilt (8-4)  vs. Houston (8-4)

Shouldn’t two directional schools be playing in this game?? I doubt that many will be watching this one unless the first Saturday of the new year finds most of the country deep in snow & ice. Personally I think I’ll be at the local cineplex checking out a movie or two that I didn’t get to before Christmas. Anyway, I’m going with Houston because I have a sneaking suspicion that Vandy will be playing for an interim coach.

Me:        Houston

Zach:     Vanderbilt

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GoDaddy Bowlgodaddy

Mobile, AL

1/5 at 9pm on ESPN

Arkansas St. (7-5)  vs. Ball St. (10-2)

I hate this game. It’s horribly named, is played about two weeks later than it should be, and the matchup itself is about as unappealing as that time the fat detective showed his naked butt on NYPD Blue. Due to my affection for the MAC I’m going with Ball State.

Me:        Ball St.

Zach:     Ball St.

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National Championship Game

Pasadena, CA  –  1/6 at 8:30pm on ESPN

#1 Florida St. (13-0)   vs.  #2 Auburn (12-1)

champHere we go. This is the big one. As much as I detest the BCS and am looking forward to the 4 team playoff that begins next year I must say that more often than not the national title game ends up with an awesome matchup and this one is no exception. Auburn is proof positive that sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. But one must be cautious if there is an inkling to write off the Tigers because they won two games…against Georgia and Alabama…that they really shouldn’t have. We also should not overlook the fact that as much as Ohio State got knocked for their weak schedule Florida State’s schedule is arguably less impressive. I think this might be the best national title game since Vince Young & Texas outdueled Reggie Bush & USC in 2006. Once again my heart is going to rule over my brain. Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher is a fellow native of Clarksburg, WV and graduated from the same high school as myself 6 years earlier. I can’t go against the hometown boy. Zach really likes Auburn’s offense.

Me:        Florida St.

Zach:     Auburn

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2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 12

We’re in the home stretch of the college football season and ¾ of the way into the NFL season. With the holidays fast approaching and things on the gridiron getting really interesting I’d have to say that this is one of my favorite stretches of the entire year. Last week Zach went 4-2 while your humble Potentate of Profundity was 3-3. I’ll pat myself on the back for getting the USC upset of Stanford right, while Zach & I both correctly predicted that Louisville would beat Houston but not cover and also barely got a win when Oregon St. lost to Arizona St. by 13 points…not 13.5, thereby covering the spread. Zach picked Auburn & Michigan St., both games that I had pegged totally wrong. So thus far the 2013 season looks as such:

                Zach                       =             26-30

                Yours Truly          =             29-27

This week we have some really intriguing games both college & pro, and surprisingly there are no crazy point spreads. I hope these games are all as close as the boys in Vegas seem to think they will be.

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Texas A&M                         at            LSU (-4.5)

I’m actually a bit surprised at the spread. I know LSU has the home field, but they are 7-3, coming off a loss to Alabama, and ranked 19th in the polls facing a Texas A&M team that is 8-2, ranked 10th, and texas_am_01riding a 3 game winning streak. I know home field advantage means a lot, but I didn’t realize it meant that much. At any rate, a victory here combined with impressive numbers could secure another Heisman for QB Johnny Manziel. Meanwhile, the Tigers aren’t really playing for anything other than pride and a more lucrative bowl destination. The vibes are telling me that Johnny Football will rise to the occasion and overcome LSU’s stout defense. Zach is on the same wavelength and thinks it’ll be close until the 4th quarter when Manziel takes over.

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Arizona St. (-2.5)              at            UCLA

The Sun Devils really have kind of snuck up on everyone this year. They are 8-2 and very much in the hunt for a Rose Bowl berth. Who’s standing in their way?? Well…the Bruins. This game might decide the ucla_bruins2south division of the Pac 12 although the USC Trojans are right there as well. Arizona St. already defeated the Trojans back in September (costing head coach Lane Kiffin his job), with USC & UCLA set for their annual showdown next week. When I did my pre-season Top 25 I had UCLA ranked 15th which is right about where they stand at the moment. I can’t abandon them now, right?? Once again Zach concurs, adding that he’s just not that impressed by Arizona St.

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Baylor (-9.5)                       at            Oklahoma St.

oklahoma_state_cowboys_iphone_wallpaperI am really looking forward to this game. With a victory the Bears will vault Ohio State in the BCS (emphasis on BS) standings, meaning that they’d be first in line for a shot at the national title shouldbaylor either Alabama or Florida State falter. Personally I think it’d be awesome if both ‘Bama & the ‘Noles would lose, opening the door for a Buckeyes-Bears national title game, but I’m not holding my breath. However, having said that I do believe it to be within the realm of possibility that one or the other could lose, so this game is huge for Baylor. Meanwhile the Cowboys are just trucking along getting no respect at all despite a 9-1 record and a Top 10 ranking. This game will likely decide the Big 12 champion and a BCS bowl regardless of what happens with those other teams. I have pondered this game a bit and I must say that The Voices aren’t telling me what I expected to hear. I think 9.5 points may actually be too big of a number, especially with this game being played in the friendly confines of Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. Baylor hasn’t really been challenged late into a game with the exception of a mid-October contest at Kansas St. in which they were behind going into the 4th quarter, scored very early in that quarter to take the lead, and then added another late TD just for good measure. I think it is quite possible that this game might be up for grabs with 5 or less minutes remaining. Can Baylor grind out a close one?? Probably. But I don’t think they’ll cover the points. Zach is going in the opposite direction on this one and foresees a Baylor blowout.

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Indianapolis                       at            Arizona (-2)

The Arizona Cardinals are 6-4 and in the thick of the NFC wildcard chase. Not bad for a team that I predicted would go 3-13. Oops. The Colts, on the other hand, are right about where I thought they’d be, which Indianapolis_Colts_Helmetis comfortably winning their division. I know the Cards are getting the home field bump with the 2 points, but I ain’t buying it. I’ll be shocked if Indy doesn’t win this one easily. Zach is concerned that sometimes Indianapolis plays down to their competition but still agrees that they’ll cruise to a victory here.

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Denver (-2.5)                     at            New England

0809-Broncos-NFL-kickoff-Peyton-Manning_full_600Has anyone else noticed that NBC’s Sunday Night Football gets all the good games?? I bet the powers-that-be in Bristol are not happy about that. Personally though I like it. There’s usually brady.tom.112807nothing else better to do on a Sunday night than watch football, while Monday is wrestling night and only a game involving my Pittsburgh Steelers will tear me away from WWE Raw. Anyway, the Broncos are coming off a huge win over the Kansas City Chiefs and will travel to Kansas City to face that same team again next week. Unfortunately they don’t exactly have a cakewalk in between with the Patriots, who got hosed in a loss to the Carolina Panthers last week. This is Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. Not much else needs to be said to sell it, right?? I’d feel a lot better about picking Denver if the Patriots hadn’t gotten screwed by the refs last Monday night. They’ll be angry and out to prove that they’re still big & bad. Nevertheless I just can’t go against Manning. Zach does NOT think that the Patriots got screwed against the Panthers (he’s wrong), but unlike someone else is willing to go against Manning and pick New England.

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

Last week I went 2-4-1, with Louisville & the Detroit Lions really letting me down. I am perfectly aware when I roll the dice and have come to expect that more often than not I lose those gambles, but there are times when I am actually pretty confident that a pick is as close to a lock as one can hope for in football and when I lose those it really stings. Unfortunately I have lost a lot of those this season, which is why my overall record now stands at 28-47-1. If I were a coach or being paid by anyone to do this I would have already been shown the door. Luckily I am my own boss here so I can just move forward and hope to do better this week. The college schedule is inexplicably polluted with top teams playing cupcakes, which seems weird so late in the season, and the NFL schedule is beginning to feel repetitive & tedious at this juncture, but I have cobbled together 7 games that should be entertaining enough.

 

 

 

Florida State (-31)            at            Maryland

This is one of those games where the outcome is almost a foregone conclusion, but the interesting thing is the spread. The 9-1 Seminoles will almost certainly beat the 4-6 Terrapins, but will they win by over 4 TDs?? Such large victories are not foreign to Florida St., as they have won over half of their games by more than 40 points. Meanwhile, Maryland, who I crazily ranked 15th in my pre-season Top 25, has lost a lot but they weren’t being blown out until their last two games. I am going out on a limb and predicting that Florida St. has a slightly off week and only wins by 20-28 points.

 

 

Rutgers                at            Cincinnati (-6)

It was the Bearcats that I picked to win The Big East and finish in the top 15, but even though they have an impressive 7-2 record it is their opponent this week, the Scarlet Knights, who are currently ranked in the Top 25. That could flip flop here with a Cincinnati victory. I think these are two evenly matched teams and it should be an exciting game, so when all other things are equal the home field advantage comes into play. I think Cincinnati wins & covers, and maybe next week we’ll see them ranked.

 

 

USC (-3.5)            at            UCLA

I wonder when the last time these two teams played against one another in a meaningful game?? It seems like the Bruins have been below average for a number of years, all while the Trojans have been constantly in the thick of the national championship conversation. This game could possibly decide who represents The Pac 12 in The Rose Bowl, assuming Oregon makes it to the title game. Both teams are ranked in the top 20, but one gets the feeling that USC is struggling to hold on (they’ve lost 2 out of their last 3) while UCLA is riding a 4 game winning streak. Normally I would go with the home team in a game like this, but it is quite telling that the boys in Vegas consider Southern Cal the favorite. The vibes are strong with this one, as I sense that the Trojans will seize the opportunity to save their season.

 

 

Texas Tech          at            Oklahoma State (-10)

I have really been enjoying The Big 12 this season, except for the part where my WV Mountaineers completely suck and are struggling to become bowl eligible after all the pre-season hype of a possible national title run. Anyway, these are both solid teams in the lower echelon of the Top 25, but after they clash one will obviously fall by the wayside while one remains ranked. I assume it’ll be a high scoring game and fun to watch. I am a little surprised that it’s a double digit spread, which is kind of disrespectful to a very talented Red Raider team. However, Tech has lost 2 out of their past 4 games and went to overtime to win the other two, so I suppose the odds make sense. I just have a feeling it’ll be a little bit closer than that though, so Texas Tech is the pick.

 

 

Stanford              at            Oregon (-20.5)

I have learned my lesson. The Ducks win and they win big. But after Alabama was knocked off their perch last week it is Oregon that sits in the driver’s seat while Kansas St. & Notre Dame battle for the #2 spot, so might they take their foot off the gas just a little bit?? Stanford is much more on the level of USC, who Oregon defeated by only 11 points, and Arizona St., who the Ducks beat by a mere 22 points, rather than the likes of Arizona, Washington, or Cal that were all destroyed by the boys in green by 30+ points. This’ll probably be one of those games that the oddsmakers have somehow magically pegged perfectly, meaning that either way I go I’ll be sweating it out right down to the last possession. I have too much respect for Stanford to believe that they’ll get smoked by 3 TDs, so I’ll pick them to cover the spread. I am sure I’ll regret it. So yeah…I guess I didn’t learn my lesson.

 

 

Tampa Bay (-1.5)             at            Carolina

Wow, did I ever have the Panthers figured wrong. I thought they’d be a playoff team and QB Cam Newton would continue his rise to prominence. Instead Newton is a headcase that is looking more like a bad mix of the worst of Vince Young & Donovan McNabb, and his supporting cast isn’t nearly as good as I’d thought they’d be. Conversely, the Bucs are riding rookie RB Doug Martin straight into playoff contention. Plain & simple…it’s over for Carolina, while Tampa has to keep winning to stay in contention in the ultra-competitive NFC.

 

 

Chicago                at            San Francisco (-5)

Earlier this week I thought this’d be a game featuring two backup quarterbacks. Both Bears’ signal caller and 49ers starter Alex Smith were injured last weekend, but it looks like Smith is good to go. Chicago will rely on former Redskins & Raiders QB Jason Campbell, who isn’t a bad second option. This was always going to be a defensive struggle no matter who was behind center, so I don’t think it matters all that much anyway. It’s this week Monday night game and it should be a low scoring affair with lots of handoffs & punts. I am sure the folks at ESPN are thrilled. At any rate, conventional wisdom favors the home team and the spread isn’t outrageous, so I’ll go with Frisco to pull out a yawn inspiring victory.

 

 

 

 

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A Plan to Save College Football

There’s an old adage that says “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”. College football, to my knowledge, is as popular and successful as ever, so I suppose many would say why mess with a good thing. However, as a lifelong diehard fan of the sport, I truly feel it can be better. While many of the changes that have evolved during the course of my lifetime haven’t seemed to negatively impact business that does not necessarily mean that these changes have been positive. Monetary concerns have interfered in ways that have made college football a corporate sacrificial lamb while decreasing competitiveness and parity. Decisions are based on business considerations more than what’s best for the on-the-field product. These things may not significantly affect one’s enjoyment of the game on Saturday, but there is a cloud of self-indulgent self-interest hanging over the sport that has cheapened it somewhat and made even the most hardcore fan a bit cynical. I believe there are a few ways we can bring back atleast the appearance of virtue and tradition that is slowly and sadly evaporating.

1 Conference Realignment

Blame it on shrewd marketing, blame it on ESPN, blame it on whomever else you wish…..but the fact is that what we have right now in college football is about four conferences that matter, a few that used to matter but have fallen on rough times, and several others who are like the kid brother that desperately wants to play with the older kids but gets either knocked around or completely overlooked. We have craziness like the Big 10 having eleven teams, the ACC having a team like Boston College that’s nowhere near the Atlantic Coast for which the conference is named, and Conference USA having teams stretching across 1000 miles, from West Virginia to Texas. We have teams switching conferences like they’re a sorority girl sleeping her way through the campus until she finds the guy who’ll buy her the best gifts. Someone needs to stop the madness. The NCAA needs to act like the overseer it is supposed to be and stop letting individual conferences act selfishly while hurting the big picture. I will put forth details in a future series. For now I will just say that my conference realignment will take into consideration things like geography, traditional rivalries, and competitive balance. It will also keep an eye on how the conferences fit into the ultimate goal of crowning a legitimate national champion.

2 Eleven Game Season

For years college football teams played 11 games. Then the powers-that-be figured out that a 12th game would make them more money. This 12th game usually entails a powerhouse big conference team playing against a cupcake, a team from a much smaller and less competitive school, oftentimes from a lower division. It’s a win-win for the two schools involved. The smaller school gets paid a hefty sum for the game, money that goes into the school’s coffers and is undoubtedly spent on much needed projects most of the time. The smaller school also gets the added benefit of exposure, something that never hurts. And occasionally, as in Appalachian State’s remarkable upset of Michigan in 2007, the underdog wins which is just the cherry on top. The bigger school almost always gets an easy win to pad their schedule, something which is much more beneficial than it should be. In 2007 Ohio State beat 3 cupcakes (Youngstown St., Akron, and Kent St.) by an average of 32 points en route to an 11-1 regular season and a spot in the championship game, while other teams with tougher schedules but atleast 1 more loss were left on the outside looking in. The bigger team also gets the benefit of these types of games being on their home turf which enables them to make a lot of their money back since college football fans, being much more rabid and loyal than fans of pro teams, will sell out a 50 or 75 thousand seat stadium regardless of whether or not the game is actually good. The only losers are the fans, who will spend our hard earned money to attend or our precious time to watch these insipid and meaningless contests. I say bring the regular season back to 11 games…..2 or 3 non-conference games and 8 or 9 conference games. This would also give teams an incentive not to waste their precious few out of conference opportunities on games that, under my system, would hurt their strength of schedule and therefore their chance to make it into the playoff (more on that later).

3 One Poll

We have too many polls, too many voices telling us who should be #1. This has even lead in the past to a split national championship, where different teams were voted as the top dog by the writers and the coaches. The situation is worse now than it has ever been, even though the convoluted BCS system was supposed to achieve the goal of an undisputed champion. The BCS is itself comprised of a half dozen polls that require a PhD in mathematics to decipher. Add to that the fact that the Associated Press, one of the older and more respected rankings, opted out of the current system a couple years ago thereby re-opening the possibility of having two different championship teams. It’s just a mess. I am also of the opinion that a coaches’ poll is itself somewhat specious, with too many opportunities for jealousy, adversarial relationships, and revenge to inject themselves into the equation. What I propose is one poll made up of some acceptable mix of media, coaches, former players, and maybe even knowledgeable citizens with no ties to the sport itself. There could even be a mathematical component introduced that takes into consideration things like strength of schedule and point differential. In other words many of the same things that go into current polls, but all combined into one poll instead of several.

4 Notre Dame Isn’t Special

Notre Dame needs to be forced to join a conference immediately. Sorry Irish fans, but Knute Rockne and The Gipper are dead and it’s not the 1940’s anymore. It’s a real mystery to me why the sports media and the NCAA bend over backward in this day and age to put a product on a pedestal that’s really not that great of a product anymore. There are atleast a dozen teams who have been more successful than Notre Dame in the past 25 years and all of them are in conferences. Notre Dame has a winning tradition, a rich history, and a name brand that draws national interest and I am not disputing that. What I am saying though is that several other teams can lay claim to similar success, most of them more recent and relevant, and none of them expect the preferential treatment that the Irish demand. It’s time for Notre Dame to stop thinking it is somehow better than everyone else, join a conference, and play by the same rules as all the others. After all, a team that has a 58% winning percentage the past 4 years and a not much more impressive 65% over the past 3 decades doesn’t have that much legitimate leverage. In comparison, over the same 30 year time span, Ohio State has a winning percentage of 75%, USC 71%, and Florida State 78%. All of those teams are in a conference, so why should an exception be made for Notre Dame??

5 Conference Television Contracts

I like ESPN as much as the next guy. If you’re a sports fan “the family of networks” is nirvana. But I think maybe they have a bit too much power. And what’s up with Notre Dame having its own individual contract with NBC?? I know it seems like I’m picking on Notre Dame, and I am. It’s just that I cannot wrap my head around any reason why everyone seems to kowtow to them. It’s mind boggling. Also, why should the conferences have their own channels, like The Big Ten Network?? These are perfect examples of how the NCAA has abdicated its authority and let each conference run amok, basically going into business for themselves. When I turn on my television I see 5 places where college football ought to be found every fall Saturday (and I suppose Thursday night): ABC, CBS (and CSTV), NBC, ESPN (including ESPN2 & ESPNU), and Fox (which would include the regional Fox Sports channels and FX). Let each conference negotiate deals with a network, with each network limited to 2 conference deals. Maybe some networks only end up with one. So be it. If channels like TBS, USA, Spike, and Versus want to jump into the fray they would have the right to do so only after the “Big 5” have gotten first crack at what they want.

6 Limit Cupcakes

While going back to an 11 game season and having strength of schedule continue to be a key component in the ranking of teams very much helps the situation, we need one more control. Every Division 1 (the divisions would be realigned into Divisions 1,2,3,& 4…so no more 1-A, 1-AA, etc.) team would only be permitted to schedule 3 games with lower division teams in a 5 year period. That’s it. Sure, the fans enjoy the occasional David vs. Goliath upset, but more than that the fans like to see consistently competitive games.

7 No More Conference Championship Games

Let’s be honest…..there are only two reasons why conference championship games exist. First of all, some conferences (I’m looking at you SEC and ACC) are just too big. New conferences would have 9 or 10 teams maximum. Secondly…..greed. It’s always about the money. Always. If all the teams in a conference play each other over the course of the regular season there is no need to line anyone’s pockets…whether it’s a school, a conference, or a television network…with extra cash. These championship games are a relatively new invention and not necessarily a good one.

8 Only Three Independents

As previously mentioned, Notre Dame needs to join a conference because their arrogant sense of entitlement is misplaced and erroneous. However, under my plan we would have 3 independent teams…..Army, Navy, and Air Force. These teams represent our military, they represent the nation as a whole, they represent freedom and democracy. These are the teams that should be put on a pedestal and have earned a sense of entitlement, not because of success on the field but because of what their institutions and therefore their graduates do off the field. Besides, it would be a great recruiting tool. They would be the ambassadors of college football. And fans nationwide could cheer for these teams because they would be independent and not tied to a conference. Their schedules would vary greatly from year to year, befitting of their ambassador role. Having your favorite team get to go up against one of the service academies would be an honor and a privilege. Once upon a time these teams, Army in particular, were very highly regarded. But the business of college football got in the way and has made each of them just another team. Sadly,  outside their own conferences they are looked upon by many as being among the aforementioned cupcakes. That may not change overnight, and it may not ever completely change. After all, football is a sport of size and power, and the academies don’t necessarily get the biggest and strongest athletes. But the least we can do is celebrate them and put them in the special category they deserve to be in because of what they do for all of us that is so much more important than a football game.

9 A Playoff

I saved the best for last. Well…next to last.

There are only two things preventing a playoff from becoming reality in major college football. One is a sense of “tradition”…the old “we’ve always done it this way” mentality. This issue is a very small one though when one considers a lot of the other charming customs and rituals that have been thrown out the window the minute someone figured out a more profitable way of doing things. The bigger obstacles are greed and power. All those bowls that used to be named after fruit and regionally relevant products have been replaced with corporate names. Universities and conferences and cities make a lot of coin from these companies, who eagerly pay for a ton of positive press and a matchless advertising opportunity. Those universities, conferences, cities, and companies have a good thing going from a financial standpoint. It’s mutually beneficial for all sides and they aren’t going to give it up without a fight. They use every excuse in the book, from feigning concern about the academic careers of student athletes to hand wringing hysteria about how difficult it would be for fans to follow their teams to playoff games. To put it bluntly, it’s all poppycock. My alma mater, Marshall, was a 1-AA school when I was a student. I attended several playoff games and it was awesome. If anything a playoff would be more exciting and fun than the current bowl system. I won’t dive into details here, as I plan on laying out those details in a sequel series related to this entry. Suffice to say that a 16 team playoff while still retaining a revised version of the bowl system is eminently doable and much preferable to the existing system, atleast for us fans if not for the suits.

10 Bowl Revisions

Under my plan a few things would be done to revise the current post-season structure, the first of which is the playoff. However, as previously mentioned, the bowls would be kept, just on a smaller scale. Instead of nearly three dozen bowl games there would be maybe two dozen, if that. Corporate sponsorship would not be eliminated but it would be minimized. In other words, we aren’t naming bowls after a company. Neither are we naming bowls after a place. While the Papa John’s.com Bowl, Capital One Bowl, and Chick-Fil-A Bowl are atrociously insufferable names, the Texas Bowl and New Mexico Bowl aren’t much less obnoxious. Also, a record of 6-5 is a winning season and that’s just about it. To be bowl eligible 7 wins in an 11 game season should be required. New Year’s Day would regain its prominence, with the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, and Fiesta being played on that day and only the national championship game remaining after, hopefully to be played almost always on January 2nd.