Oregon

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 10

Well, last week wasn’t exactly a banner round in the prognostication arts here at The Manofesto. I went 2-5, while Zach was 1-6. The point spread really bit us in the behind, with neither Penn St. nor Nebraska being able to cover the points despite winning their games, and Miami (FL) & Michigan living up to the low expectations of the oddsmakers in spite of our spirited support. Enough said about that debacle. For the season it looks like this:

Your Humble Potentate of Profundity    =       23-22

Zach          =       19-26

This week gets off to an early start with two big Thursday night college games which is why you are reading this a couple of days earlier than usual. I can actually get myself moving when motivated.

Oklahoma      at         Baylor (-14.5)

oklahomaThere are some who don’t believe in Baylor, who say that they haven’t played anyone good. Fair enough. Their schedule is baylorbackloaded, with Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, & Oklahoma still to go after this game, and certainly their out-of-conference opponents weren’t impressive, so I understand the reluctance to embrace the Bears as a legitimate powerhouse. However, having watched them play a couple of times on TV I tend to lean toward the thought that Baylor is the real deal. The question is are they good enough to destroy Oklahoma like they’ve done everyone else?? The Sooners have been solid, beating everyone except archrival Texas. To be honest if this game were being played in Norman, OK I’d take the underdogs in a heartbeat. Then again if the game were in Norman I doubt Baylor would be favored by more than two TDs. I think one of two things will happen. Either Oklahoma will win and “expose” Baylor, making all the talking heads who’ve expressed doubt about them real proud of themselves. Or Baylor will earn a hard fought victory and gain some measure of respect. One thing that I do not think will occur is Baylor covering 14.5 points. Zach disagrees and thinks Baylor wins this one big.

 

Oregon (-10.5)          at         Stanford

photo.stanfordtreeThis is it. This is Oregon’s big chance to prove that they…not Florida State…deserve the opportunity to lose to Alabama inOregon-Ducks the national title game. This will be a Thursday night prime time game on ESPN with almost the entire college football world watching (or atleast flipping back & forth between this and the Oklahoma-Baylor game on Fox Sports 1). Stanford has flown somewhat under the radar thus far, but they are 7-1 and ranked 6th in the polls. The Ducks are getting a lot of respect from the oddsmakers. One doesn’t see Top 10 teams being double digit home underdogs very often. Not only is a spot in the national title game on the line for Oregon, but with a victory Stanford could secure a spot in the conference championship game and have an opportunity to get to The Rose Bowl. Oregon has been mowing people down with almost as much effectiveness as Baylor, but something tells me this one won’t be quite that easy. I won’t go so far as to predict an outright upset, but I think this is going to be far closer than most are expecting. Zach calls this one of the toughest games he’s picked but is going with the boys in Vegas and taking the Ducks.

 

BYU                at         Wisconsin (-7.5)

In my pre-season Top 25 I had BYU at #25 and left Wisconsin out. That prediction could still come to fruition if the Cougars win out and the WisconsinBadgersBadgers lose this game. Wisconsin ranks 10th in the nation in rushing and has one of the NCAA’s best running backs in Melvin Gordon. And of course they always have a tremendous offensive line. BYU has a rather effective rushing attack themselves. This is going to be an old fashioned ground & pound game, with the lines essentially deciding the contest. I think BYU will hang tough for 3+ quarters, but at the end of the day Wisconsin will control time of possession and get a solid 10 point victory. Zach thinks this’ll be an easy Badger win.

 

LSU                at         Alabama (-12)

lsu_logoI must explain something about myself. I am an underdog kind of guy. Plus I can’t stand the idiotic BCS (no matter how many AlabamaCrimsonTide2times it does seem to work out in the end). Therefore I am the contrarian who is always hoping & praying for an upset that’ll send the whole process into chaos. On top of all that I…like many others…am getting just a bit bored with Alabama’s dominance. So I have been looking forward to this game simply because outside of Texas A&M back in September I felt like the Bayou Bengals were the only team with even a prayer of upsetting the Tide. Oh I suppose maybe Missouri or South Carolina might have a puncher’s chance in the SEC title game, but in reality the only thing standing between ‘Bama and yet another appearance in the national championship game are the LSU Tigers. So…will the upset occur?? Well, I’d feel a lot better about LSU’s chances if the game were being played in Baton Rouge. And I’d certainly like it a whole lot better if they didn’t have two losses on their record. Truthfully I wouldn’t dare put money on an upset, but I am intrigued by the point spread. A year ago ‘Bama went into hostile territory and came away with a 4 point victory. Two years ago LSU went into Tuscaloosa and won a 9-6 snoozefest. My vibe is that we are in for something like that…maybe a 17-10 or 28-17 kind of game. I don’t think Alabama will lose, but I don’t think they’re going to cover the points. Zach thinks this will be a low scoring brawl between two well coached teams. He’s picking the Tide to roll to a two touchdown victory.

 

Cincinnati (-1.5)        at         Baltimore

Baltimore_Ravens2It says a lot about the Bengals that they are favored in a game away from home, even if it is by the slightest of margins. The Cincinnati_Bengals_Helmetdefending Super Bowl champion Ravens are 3-5 and actually behind the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Central. If they are going to make any kind of run at a playoff spot this feels like a must win. I am anything but a Ravens fan but my vibe is that they will realize the urgency and take advantage of the home field. Zach is a fellow Steelers fan and is letting his longstanding disdain for Baltimore cloud his judgment. He’s picking the Bengals even if it would likely put the final nail in Pittsburgh’s coffin.

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2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 8 (Kind Of)

Citizens of The Manoverse may have noticed that there were no picks last week. Your humble Potentate of Profundity ran into some computer issues at home, and my backup plan fell thru as well, so I decided to take it as a bye week. However, Zach had already emailed me his picks and he went 2-3. He picked UCLA over Stanford (oops), Clemson over Florida St. (oops), Northern Illinois over Central Michigan (thumbs up), Carolina over St. Louis (thumbs up), & Denver over Indianapolis (oops). That brings his total record thus far to 18-20. Zach doesn’t know this yet, but he’s getting a bye week this week and I’m flying solo. That’ll even things out.

 

 

 

 

Texas Tech            at       Oklahoma (-6.5)

I’ve watched both of these teams play and both struggled against my WV Mountaineers before ultimately getting the win. Tech is 7-0 oklahomabut the argument can be made that they haven’t truly been tested. Oklahoma has a loss to archrival Texas as the only blemish on their record. I don’t doubt that Tech is legitimately good, but I have to go with the home team here.

 

South Carolina       at       Missouri (-3)

Who would have ever predicted a month ago that this game would be all that meaningful?? And who could have foreseen that thesouth_carolina_gamecocks_pennant_8949big Tigers would be the Top 10 team?? No one can say that Missouri hasn’t played anyone, even if it is true that Florida & Georgia were slightly overrated. Conversely the Gamecocks had high expectations and have seen them crashing to earth after losses to Georgia and Tennessee. I think South Carolina rebounds a bit here and it’ll be Missouri being knocked off their very tenuous pedestal.

 

UCLA                    at       Oregon (-23.5)

I’m really looking forward to this game. In my pre-season Top 25 I rated the Ducks #1 and the Bruins #15. So far I’m not too far off, ucla_bruins2although Oregon is going to need a bit of help to get into the national championship. They can help themselves immensely with a victory in this game. I believe Oregon will indeed win…but not for a second do I think they will even come close to covering the spread. So UCLA is the pick.

 

Dallas                   at       Detroit (-3)

The only reason the Lions have the betting edge is because of home field advantage. They have been way too up & down for my dallas-cowboys-logo2comfort level this season, and it isn’t quite time yet for the Cowboys to crash & burn. That’ll happen in the playoffs as usual.

 

Atlanta                  at       Arizona (-2.5)

Another spread no one could have predicted just a few short weeks ago. The Falcons are off to a very poor 2-4 start, while thenflarizonacardinals Cardinals defense has carried them to a respectable 3-4 record. At some point Atlanta will surely begin to resemble the team that nearly every pundit had winning another division title and making a deep playoff run. I just don’t think it’ll be this week.

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2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 7

It’s been an odd & stressful week in The Manoverse. I’ll spare you the details, but the fact that I am just finally getting around to doing this week’s PPP a few short hours before kickoff tells the story to an extent. Thank goodness we didn’t pick any Thursday or Friday games this week and obviously there’ll be no extra games like last week. Speaking of last week, I went 4-4 (thank you for the last second assist Ohio St.), as did Zach. That brings the season’s total to this point to:

Your Humble Potentate of Profundity    =             17-16

Zach       =             16-17

Thank God we aren’t trying to make a living doing this, right?? Anyway, on to this week…brief & dirty!!

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Oklahoma (-14) at Texas

TEXAS LONGHORNS.1271817676In my Pre-Season Top 25 I ranked Texas #4 and opined that “the Longhorns are finally primed to re-ascend to theoklahoma top of The Big 12 and possibly contend for a national championship.” Oops…I may have been slightly wrong about that. Texas is instead 3-2 and head coach Mack Brown is fielding questions about his job status. Meanwhile the Sooners are undefeated and just about where I thought they’d be at this point. Long story short on this one…I think Texas is a dangerous animal that’s been cornered. I’m not at all confident that they’ll win this annual renewal of The Red River Shootout, but I think they’ll be competitive and certainly won’t lose by two TDs. Zach, on the other hand, believes that Brown’s days are numbered and that Oklahoma takes this one easily. Actually he is very specific, saying that the Sooners will win by 24 points. We’ll see.

My Pick          Texas

Z’s Pick           Oklahoma

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Florida at LSU (-7)

Two Top 20 SEC teams in another highly anticipated clash. What else can be said?? I like LSU to pull this one out at home. Zach agrees.lsu_logo

My Pick          LSU

Z’s Pick           LSU

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Oregon (-14) at Washington

The Huskies are a lot better than anyone thought they’d be this season, but do they really have a shot against the #2 Ducks?? Maybe the Oregon-Ducksmore interesting question is whether or not Oregon can cover the points. They have won their five games thus far by an average of 47 points. Now I will grant that they haven’t played anyone of note, but still…that’s a high powered offense. I think Washington gets exposed here and Oregon wins easily. Zach goes so far as to say it’ll be a blowout that’ll be over in the first quarter.

My Pick          Oregon

Z’s Pick           Oregon

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Green Bay (-3) at Baltimore

The Packers haven’t exactly been world beaters this season. They are 2-2 and in 3rd place in their division. The Ravens aren’t that much better at 3-2. I find it interesting that Green_Bay_Packers_HelmetBaltimore isn’t getting the standard 3 point home field bump, especially since they have a better record. That tells me that the oddsmakers know…just like most of us…that Green Bay is a lot better than average and will start to prove it soon…probably this week. Zach concurs.

My Pick          Green Bay

Z’s Pick           Green Bay

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New Orleans at New England (-2.5)

I find this point spread baffling. Yes the Patriots have the home field. But the Saints are clearly the better team and unlike the Packers I’m not sure that New England will be 10_new_orleans_saintsbreaking out of their funk anytime soon. Now, I know what you’re saying…”But humble Potentate of Profundity…the New England Patriots are 4-1!!”. Yes…yes they are. But have you watched any of their games?? Each of those four victories has been a real uphill climb. New England is definitely not the same stellar team that we’ve watched run roughshod over the NFL for the past decade. They have issues. Conversely the New Orleans Saints look like the real deal and have plowed thru their schedule like a fat kid at an all-you-can  eat buffet. This’ll be tough & close, but in the end I think Drew Brees throws for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns en route to a double digit victory. Zach seconds that emotion.

My Pick          New Orleans

Z’s Pick           New Orleans

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

Last week I went 2-4-1, with Louisville & the Detroit Lions really letting me down. I am perfectly aware when I roll the dice and have come to expect that more often than not I lose those gambles, but there are times when I am actually pretty confident that a pick is as close to a lock as one can hope for in football and when I lose those it really stings. Unfortunately I have lost a lot of those this season, which is why my overall record now stands at 28-47-1. If I were a coach or being paid by anyone to do this I would have already been shown the door. Luckily I am my own boss here so I can just move forward and hope to do better this week. The college schedule is inexplicably polluted with top teams playing cupcakes, which seems weird so late in the season, and the NFL schedule is beginning to feel repetitive & tedious at this juncture, but I have cobbled together 7 games that should be entertaining enough.

 

 

 

Florida State (-31)            at            Maryland

This is one of those games where the outcome is almost a foregone conclusion, but the interesting thing is the spread. The 9-1 Seminoles will almost certainly beat the 4-6 Terrapins, but will they win by over 4 TDs?? Such large victories are not foreign to Florida St., as they have won over half of their games by more than 40 points. Meanwhile, Maryland, who I crazily ranked 15th in my pre-season Top 25, has lost a lot but they weren’t being blown out until their last two games. I am going out on a limb and predicting that Florida St. has a slightly off week and only wins by 20-28 points.

 

 

Rutgers                at            Cincinnati (-6)

It was the Bearcats that I picked to win The Big East and finish in the top 15, but even though they have an impressive 7-2 record it is their opponent this week, the Scarlet Knights, who are currently ranked in the Top 25. That could flip flop here with a Cincinnati victory. I think these are two evenly matched teams and it should be an exciting game, so when all other things are equal the home field advantage comes into play. I think Cincinnati wins & covers, and maybe next week we’ll see them ranked.

 

 

USC (-3.5)            at            UCLA

I wonder when the last time these two teams played against one another in a meaningful game?? It seems like the Bruins have been below average for a number of years, all while the Trojans have been constantly in the thick of the national championship conversation. This game could possibly decide who represents The Pac 12 in The Rose Bowl, assuming Oregon makes it to the title game. Both teams are ranked in the top 20, but one gets the feeling that USC is struggling to hold on (they’ve lost 2 out of their last 3) while UCLA is riding a 4 game winning streak. Normally I would go with the home team in a game like this, but it is quite telling that the boys in Vegas consider Southern Cal the favorite. The vibes are strong with this one, as I sense that the Trojans will seize the opportunity to save their season.

 

 

Texas Tech          at            Oklahoma State (-10)

I have really been enjoying The Big 12 this season, except for the part where my WV Mountaineers completely suck and are struggling to become bowl eligible after all the pre-season hype of a possible national title run. Anyway, these are both solid teams in the lower echelon of the Top 25, but after they clash one will obviously fall by the wayside while one remains ranked. I assume it’ll be a high scoring game and fun to watch. I am a little surprised that it’s a double digit spread, which is kind of disrespectful to a very talented Red Raider team. However, Tech has lost 2 out of their past 4 games and went to overtime to win the other two, so I suppose the odds make sense. I just have a feeling it’ll be a little bit closer than that though, so Texas Tech is the pick.

 

 

Stanford              at            Oregon (-20.5)

I have learned my lesson. The Ducks win and they win big. But after Alabama was knocked off their perch last week it is Oregon that sits in the driver’s seat while Kansas St. & Notre Dame battle for the #2 spot, so might they take their foot off the gas just a little bit?? Stanford is much more on the level of USC, who Oregon defeated by only 11 points, and Arizona St., who the Ducks beat by a mere 22 points, rather than the likes of Arizona, Washington, or Cal that were all destroyed by the boys in green by 30+ points. This’ll probably be one of those games that the oddsmakers have somehow magically pegged perfectly, meaning that either way I go I’ll be sweating it out right down to the last possession. I have too much respect for Stanford to believe that they’ll get smoked by 3 TDs, so I’ll pick them to cover the spread. I am sure I’ll regret it. So yeah…I guess I didn’t learn my lesson.

 

 

Tampa Bay (-1.5)             at            Carolina

Wow, did I ever have the Panthers figured wrong. I thought they’d be a playoff team and QB Cam Newton would continue his rise to prominence. Instead Newton is a headcase that is looking more like a bad mix of the worst of Vince Young & Donovan McNabb, and his supporting cast isn’t nearly as good as I’d thought they’d be. Conversely, the Bucs are riding rookie RB Doug Martin straight into playoff contention. Plain & simple…it’s over for Carolina, while Tampa has to keep winning to stay in contention in the ultra-competitive NFC.

 

 

Chicago                at            San Francisco (-5)

Earlier this week I thought this’d be a game featuring two backup quarterbacks. Both Bears’ signal caller and 49ers starter Alex Smith were injured last weekend, but it looks like Smith is good to go. Chicago will rely on former Redskins & Raiders QB Jason Campbell, who isn’t a bad second option. This was always going to be a defensive struggle no matter who was behind center, so I don’t think it matters all that much anyway. It’s this week Monday night game and it should be a low scoring affair with lots of handoffs & punts. I am sure the folks at ESPN are thrilled. At any rate, conventional wisdom favors the home team and the spread isn’t outrageous, so I’ll go with Frisco to pull out a yawn inspiring victory.

 

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 10

Well, I did it. I gave myself a bye week. It was actually kind of an accident. As usual Friday night snuck up on me, but I had other things going on and just wasn’t in a football kind of mood. But now we are back on track. Right now I am 26-43 and have discovered much to my surprise that the NFL is actually easier to forecast than the NCAA. I would have thought it’d be the other way around.

 

 

 

 

Louisville (-1.5)           at                     Syracuse

I suppose since I put both of these teams in my pre-season Top 25 I have an obligation to pick their game. Louisville has actually fared even better than I thought and currently find themselves undefeated & in the Top 10. The Orange, on the other hand, aren’t quite there yet. They need to win 2 out of their final 3 just to break even and possibly sneak into some lower tier bowl game that no one will watch. I don’t think it’s gonna happen this year, and I don’t think Louisville will have much trouble winning this game. I am a bit surprised the spread is so small.

 

 

Oregon State              at                    Stanford (-4)

This should be an excellent game. Both teams are ranked in the top 15 and could sneak into Rose Bowl consideration if the Oregon Ducks make it to the national championship game. But first they need a victory here. I am going to go against my usual modus operandi of leaning toward the home team by picking a slight upset. I have watched both teams play a couple of times and the Beavers seem like a better team.

 

 

Kansas State (-6)                     at                    TCU

K-St. is in a real battle with Oregon to see who’ll earn the right to be defeated by Alabama in the title game. It looks like, because of the way the BCS computer calculate the various criteria, that the Ducks will ultimately be that team, assuming both they and the Wildcats remain undefeated. But can K-St. stay unbeaten?? The majority of the experts seem to think so, and who am I to argue?? However, I sincerely believe that the Horned Frogs are a very talented team that shouldn’t be overlooked. I think Kansas State wins this game, but it very well might be in OT or with a last second field goal. So I’ll take TCU to cover the points.

 

 

Oregon (-28.5)                  at                California

Wow…both Oregon & Oregon State on the slate this week?? Call it the Charlie Simms Special. Hooah!! Anyway, if the Ducks can stay clean in their remaining games they’ll earn the right to lose to Alabama in the national championship game. They’ll get one of those wins here, but by how much?? The spread…more than 4 TDs…is awfully big. Obviously the 3-7 Golden Bears aren’t that good, but are they that bad?? I get very nervous about huge spreads like this, but Oregon has motivation. They need “style points” to impress voters and get all the BCS advantages they’ll need to edge Kansas State for #2. They have beaten every opponent they have faced soundly…three TDS or more…except Fresno St. (who they defeated by 17) and the USC Trojans, who they edged by 11 points. Something tells me this spread is just a bit too big and that Oregon will win by only 20-25 points.

 

 

Tennessee                    at                 Miami (-6)

The 3-6 Titans get starting QB Jake Locker back this week, which should be a big boost. However, the 4-4 Dolphins have won 3 out their last 4 games and have lost 3 games by a total of 9 points, two of them in overtime. Miami feels like a team on the rise, while Tennessee seems like they are stuck in neutral. But with the exception of a 30-9 trouncing of the beleaguered NY Jets every Dolphin victory has been very close, so the 6 point spread looks rather large and I don’t have any faith that Miami can cover, so Tennessee gets the nod.

 

 

Detroit (-2.5)                at              Minnesota

I had these teams combining for just 11 wins in 2012 in my season preview. Instead they have 9 victories between them already, just past the halfway point of the season. That being said they are both afterthoughts in a division with the Packers & the Bears. I’m not saying the playoffs aren’t a possibility for either club, but it’s going to be a tough road. So this game is all about pride. Unfortunately for the Vikings their star wideout Percy Harvin is likely to be watching this game from the sideline due to an ankle injury, and that will likely cripple their offense. That makes the Lions an easy choice.

 

 

Atlanta (-2.5)                  at              New Orleans

In my pre-season predictions I said about the NFC South that “The surprise might be in Atlanta, where I’m just not sold on the Falcons. QB Matt Ryan will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and by then I think he’ll be ready to flee The Peach State.” and said they’d finish 7-9. I may have been slightly wrong since the Falcons are the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten team. On the flip side I said that “I do not believe that a team can go through the turmoil that the Saints have experienced this offseason and not be affected.”, but still said they’d go 9-7 & win the division. The complete accuracy of that statement is still undecided. New Orleans did in fact get off to a rough start, but it remains to be seen whether they can recover and get back in the playoff hunt. It seems pretty clear that the division crown is out of reach, but a victory here could shift momentum in a positive direction and start a push toward a wildcard berth. I don’t believe for one second that Atlanta will go undefeated, and it might actually help them to lose now instead of at the end of the season. The Saints are the pick.

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

 

The less said about last week the better. I went 1-6, with my only “win” a Pyrrhic victory at best (Philly beat Baltimore by 1 point, not covering the 2 point spread and making my choice of the Ravens technically correct). So, in classic mid-life crisis fashion I have decided to overcompensate. My record for the season thus far stands at 7-14, and even though I have absolutely nothing riding on these picks except my own pride I feel compelled to try to improve my winning percentage. Plus when I looked at this week’s slate of games that seemed interesting I just couldn’t narrow it down to 7. Therefore you get bonus picks today!! Don’t you feel blessed??

 

 

 

BYU                                       at                            Boise St. (-7.5)

I had both of these teams ranked in my pre-season Top 25, the Cougars at #10 & the Broncos at #25. Thus far the results have been mixed. BYU stands at 2-1 while Boise St. is 1-1, and neither is ranked although a couple of victories could change that status quickly. This is a total vibe game for me. I feel like Boise is declining while BYU is on the rise. Both are usually underdogs when going up against highly regarded power conference competition like Notre Dame or Michigan St., but against one another they seem pretty evenly matched on paper. The Voices are screaming loudly on this one, and they are telling me to go with the underdog BYU, so that’s what I’ll do.

 

 

Kentucky                             at                            Florida (-24.5)

I have no doubt that the Gators will win this game. The question is will they cover the spread?? UK enters the contest an unimpressive 1-2, while the Gators are not only 3-0 but have actually played competitive opponents like Texas A&M and Tennessee. However, in their one “cupcake” game Florida, while victorious, only beat Bowling Green by 13 points. That seems significant, and gives me no reason to believe that they can whip a team…even the lowly Wildcats…by 3+ touchdowns. Therefore, even though I think they’ll lose the game, I’m picking Kentucky to cover the spread.

 

 

Missouri                              at                            South Carolina (-10)

The Tigers didn’t fare so well in their SEC debut a couple of weeks ago, getting hammered by the Georgia Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Steve Spurrier looks like he has the Gamecocks firing on all cylinders, though it must be pointed out that at 3-0 they haven’t really been tested by a strong opponent thus far. I think South Carolina easily passes this first test, while Missouri’s rough welcome tour continues.

 

 

California                            at                            USC (-16)

The talking heads and other pundits all had the Trojans at the top of their rankings as early as last spring. Yours truly didn’t buy the hype and placed them at #7 in my pre-season Top 25. I must admit that I didn’t think it’d be Stanford that crushed USC’s national title hopes, but that’s exactly what occurred last weekend. That’s probably bad news for the 1-2 Cal Golden Bears, because an angry home team isn’t someone you want to go up against. However, the question again is will the Trojans cover what is a pretty hefty spread?? Another factor that must be considered is the Bears’ state-of-mind after coming oh-so-close only to fall short against Ohio State last week. I think the timing is very bad for the underdogs and extremely good for the favorites, who I am picking to win & cover.

 

 

Michigan                             at                            Notre Dame (-6)

This will be one of the centerpiece games on Saturday night’s prime time slate. Both teams are ranked in the Top 20, with Notre Dame coming in a not all that shocking 3-0 for the first time in a decade, while the Wolverines are 2-1 but lost to the only legitimate opponent they have faced so far (#1 Alabama). The 2011 contest between these two was a classic, with three TDs being scored in the final minute & a half, the last one a game winning pass from Michigan QB Denard Robinson. We should all be so blessed to see such another exciting game this year, but that may be a bit too much to ask. I will probably regret this, but I’m going to pick Michigan here. As long as Robinson is still running the show the Wolverines can never be counted out.

 

 

Arizona                                                at                            Oregon (-23.5)

Have the boys in Vegas not been paying attention?? Yes, the high powered Oregon offense has averaged 54 points per game in route to a 3-0 record. But they haven’t played anyone!! Meanwhile, as much as I hate to give Fraudriguez even one iota of credit, it must be said that the Wildcats have looked pretty good in averaging 46 points per game and going 3-0 themselves, including a big victory over Oklahoma State. So I am more than a bit surprised that the Ducks have been made 3+ touchdown favorites. I could understand 8…maybe 10…even 12…but 23 & a half?? That seems a bit shady to me. Either Oregon has built up a lot of respect in the course of their recent success, or strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Either way I’m not buying what they are trying to sell. I think this’ll be a really good, high scoring, eminently entertaining game. Oregon deserves to be the favorites and will likely win, but not by that much. I’ll take Arizona.

 

 

NY Giants (-1.5)                                at                            Carolina

The Giants have gotten a lot of media attention this week due to Coach Coughlin’s temper tantrum over Tampa’s odd end-of-game tactics last weekend, but that isn’t going to help them against Cam Newton. In my NFL prognostications I picked Carolina to go all the way to the NFC championship game, and this would be the perfect game to announce their presence to the world. Both teams are 1-1 (as is over 60% of the league), so this is the time to make a statement and get things headed in a positive direction. It’s still very early, but the difference between 1-2 and 2-1 should not be undervalued. New York will be without the services of RB Ahmad Bradshaw, and Carolina will have the home field in front a captive audience for an NFL Network Thursday night broadcast. Newton has already had his “coming out party” and is no secret at this point, but I think it would be accurate to say that the masses have bought into just him and not his team. This is a golden opportunity to change that and I think the Panthers will take advantage of it.

 

 

Houston (-2)                      at                            Denver

Is Peyton Manning back?? Well, at first we thought the answer was a resounding yes. But then last week was a huge “not so fast my friend” kind of thing. There are whispers that Manning cannot yet throw the ball deep. If that is the case then smart defensive coordinators will take advantage of it with a variety of blitzes daring him to launch downfield to receivers in single coverage. However, if the Broncos can construct the game plan in such a way that the long ball isn’t necessary then it may be a moot point. Houston is 2-0, but really how much can be gleaned from the fact that they’ve beaten up on the Miami Dolphins & Jacksonville Jaguars?? That’s the NFL equivalent to defeating two directional schools from 1-AA. I think the altitude in Denver combined with an angry & determined Peyton Manning spells doom for the Texans.

 

 

New England                     at                            Baltimore (-3)

This is a preview of my projected AFC championship game. The Ravens looked impressive crushing the Cincinnati Bengals in week one, but last week they got outyanked in the final two minutes by the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots also started out well, easily beating the Tennessee Titans a couple of weeks ago,yet last week they needed 10 points in the final 7 minutes to make a loss to the Arizona Cardinals look close. As much as I would LOVE to see pretty boy Tom Brady go down in flames twice in a row I just don’t think that’s going to happen. If the Cardinals would have played along and lost last week like they were supposed to I might have been tempted to go with Baltimore here given the home field advantage, but since I am thoroughly convinced that Bill Belichick is some sort of evil robot from the future sent back in time to wreak havoc on the NFL I think the Patriots will be out to make a statement after last week’s shocking loss and will win going away.

 

 

 

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Winning & Musing…..Volume 9.11

We’re in the midst of both the college & pro football season, but there are still a couple other things to talk about.

 

 

When did The MAC become such an entertaining football conference?? Seemingly every Tuesday and Wednesday night these belittled teams with nothing to play for except a December bowl game in Detroit have the most engaging and competitive games of the collegiate football week. I’d rather watch a MAC game than a Big East or Big 10 game anytime.

 

 

 

It’s funny how the NBA season was supposed to start a couple of weeks ago but didn’t, yet I haven’t really noticed and don’t really care.

 


The backlash against Stanford QB Andrew Luck has very quietly begun. His inability to get the Cardinal past Oregon and remain in the national championship hunt has raised the ever-so-slightest of red flags, no matter how much the loss can legitimately be blamed on Stanford’s overall lack of depth & skill. The fact is that someone as hyped up as Luck is supposed to be able to put a subpar team on his back and carry them to victory in such games. I have very little doubt that he will still be the #1 overall pick in April’s NFL Draft, but there is now a question in my mind…and the minds of more than a few others…as to whether he is a mortal lock to walk in the footsteps of Elway, Marino, Brady, and Manning.

 

 

 

I absolutely LOVE the fact that college football’s BCS system is in complete chaos. However, it looks like we could be headed toward a LSU-Alabama rematch for the national title, which isn’t creating much excitement since the first game between the two teams was such an overhyped snoozefest. When is the NCAA going to pry their heads from their own asses and create a freakin’ playoff??

 

 

 

Maybe I’m crazy, but when I was growing up a catch was a catch. I’ve always been a big proponent of the use of instant replay, but it has created a little bit of paralysis by analysis when it comes to defining whether or not a receiver really caught a football. I prefer to see games decided by the players, not the officials, and certainly not by redefining what should be the very simple definition of a completed pass.

 

 

 

I watched the main event of the recent UFC free-per-view on Fox and to say I was underwhelmed would be an understatement. I remember the early days of UFC back in my college days. On a couple of occasions a group of my fraternity brothers got together and bought the PPV. Maybe I was easily impressed, or maybe I was just drunk, but those shows were the essence of brutality. It was two guys beating the living daylights out of each other until one guy couldn’t continue, and for an 18 year old full of testosterone and cheap beer it was awesome. Unfortunately what I saw on television this time around was a championship match that was stopped less than two minutes in, even though the loser had no marks or bruises, there was no blood, and he was able to give a cogent post-match interview less than 5 minutes later. I am not a huge boxing fan, but atleast when someone gets knocked out in a boxing match one can tell. And the competitor is given a fair shot…a standing 8 count for example…to regain his composure and continue. I will even express a preference for professional wrestling. It may be scripted entertainment, but I know I am going to get a 20-30 minute main event with lots of interesting action. The one positive I can say about my most recent UFC experience is that it was free. If I’d have actually paid for the show and had it end like that I would have demanded my money back from the cable provider.

 

 

 

Wow…what a fantastic, fun, exciting run to the championship by NASCAR’s Tony Stewart. Smoke won 5 of the final 10 races to narrowly edge Carl Edwards in a tiebreaker for the Sprint Cup. Both competitors deserve tons of credit for not only putting on a hell of a show the last two months of the season, but for remaining respectful, classy, and honorable in the midst of the battle. Racing fans were the real winners.

 

 

 

 

The Arizona Wildcats have chosen former WVU & Michigan coach Rich Fraudriguez to be their new football coach, while former Florida & Utah coach Urban Meyer seems to be headed to Columbus to rebuild a dinged Ohio State program. As much as I despise Fraudriguez and wish him nothing but miserable failure in every single facet of his pathetic excuse for a life, I must admit that on the surface it looks like a decent hire. Fraudriguez’s spread offense will work much better in the Pac 12 then it did in the Big 10, and Arizona doesn’t have any of the pesky tradition & closed-mindedness to “outsiders” that plagued his tenure at Michigan. Ohio State’s issues have mostly been off the field, and interim coach Luke Fickle was an unfortunate victim that was thrown into the frying pan way before he was ready for prime time, so I have no doubt that a proven entity like Meyer will have the Buckeyes back on top in no time, assuming he doesn’t flake out with phantom “health concerns” after a year or two.

 

 

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Aside

2011 Pre-Season College Football Top 25

As 95 degree temperatures fade away and one can smell autumn in the air, it is time to get jacked up for my favorite season of the year…football season. We begin first with college, the ostensible domain of amateur student athletes (except for those playing in Columbus and Coral Gables).

 

1             Stanford

I realize there is a new coach in Palo Alto after Jim Harbaugh’s defection to the NFL, but the Cardinal still has QB Andrew Luck, who is widely expected to be the #1 overall pick in next spring’s draft. It’s a tough schedule, with away games at Arizona & USC and home tilts against Notre Dame & Oregon, but I have good vibes about this team.

 

2             Oklahoma

The Sooners seem to be everyone else’s choice for #1, but I don’t like to follow the crowd.

3             Wisconsin

Ohio State has had a rough offseason, losing both their coach & starting QB (and most of their credibility), so the Big Ten race becomes wide open. The Badgers aren’t the most exciting team to watch, but they’ll pound the ball and wear down opposing defenses.

 

4             Florida St.

Coach Jimbo Fisher…a fellow Clarksburg, WV native and also an alum of my high school alma mater…looks to have the Seminoles back on the brink of dominance after the mediocrity of the final Bobby Bowden years.

 

 

5             Alabama

The Tide is also a popular pick to contend for a national title, and with good reason. The last 5 national champions have all come from the SEC. It will take 2 losses to knock ‘Bama out of the running, and I believe that to be a real possibility. They could still win the SEC title though.

6             Oregon

The Ducks will provide stiff competition for Stanford in the Pac 10, with their clash on November 12 deciding the race and a likely spot in the national championship game. That game is at Stanford. Sorry ‘bout your luck Oregon.

 

 

7             South Carolina

Is this the year Spurrier’s Gamecocks put it all together?? Maybe. I’m looking forward to a ‘Bama-SC SEC title game.


8             Texas A&M

Who knows what conference the Aggies will end up in down the road?? And really, who cares?? For now they are in the depleted Big 12 and will suffer only one loss…to division rival Oklahoma.

9             Arizona

The Wildcats have back to back contests against Stanford & Oregon early in the season. Even if they lose both they could run off 8 straight wins afterward and finish 10-2. If they are somehow able to win one of those two games there’s no reason to believe they can’t be a rock solid Top 10 team.

 

 

10         BYU

The Cougars are now an independent, free from all conference ties. I’m not sure whether that is a good or bad thing, but I have looked at their schedule. Trips to Texas and TCU might be a bit intimidating, but otherwise this is a 10 win team.

11         Oklahoma St.

Former offensive coordinator Dana Holgersen is now the head coach at West Virginia, but the Cowboys return starting QB Brandon Weeden and top flight NFL wideout prospect Justin Blackmon. There are tough games at home against Arizona & Oklahoma, and an away battle with Texas A&M in College Station. Three losses would totally blow up this pick, but if the boys from Stillwater can steal one of those three they will get the attention of voters.

 

 

12         Michigan St.

The Spartans went 11-2 last season and return starting QB Kirk Cousins. However, the schedule is t-o-u-g-h. Away games at Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Nebraska along with a home game versus Wisconsin will be grueling. A split of those contests would be amazing, but it is just as possible that they lose all four and make me look like a fool.

 

 

13         Arkansas

The Razorbacks do have to replace QB Ryan Mallett, so I’m a little nervous about putting them in this spot. But when I look at the schedule I see 8 wins, and that’s without any upsets. If the Hogs can pull off a surprise or two against the likes of ‘Bama, Auburn, Texas A&M, or South Carolina this pick is golden.

 

 

14         Mississippi St.

It doesn’t seem like all that long ago the Bulldogs were at the bottom of the SEC barrel, but they are coming off of a 9 win season and an impressive mauling of Michigan in the Gator Bowl. It’s kind of the same deal as Arkansas – 8 wins looks to be a lock, but an upset or two in games against ‘Bama, LSU, Auburn, and South Carolina would solidify a top 20 ranking.

 

 

15         Northwestern

In case anyone missed it, Northwestern was a bowl team last year. I say they keep the momentum going in 2011. Somewhere ESPN’s Mike Greenberg & Michael Wilbon are smiling.

16         West Virginia

Someone’s got to win the overlooked, disrespected Big East, and the consensus is that Coach Holgersen’s high powered “Eer Raid” offense will lead the Mountaineers to the crown. Yours truly is calling an upset over LSU on September 24th, which would give WVU a legit shot at an undefeated season. Sadly, even if that comes to fruition they still might be outside the championship picture looking in at a 1 or even 2 loss SEC/Big 10/Pac 10 team getting a shot at the national title.

 

 

17         Air Force

I really like watching the service academies play football. You know these guys are a lot more special than the average student athlete, and they all play a unique style that is just plain fun to see. Playing in the same conference as Boise & TCU makes a tough road for the Falcons, but I think they upset one of those two adversaries this season. Defeating Notre Dame on October 8th would be the cherry on top, although I don’t look for that to happen.

 

 

18         TCU

This might seem like a low ranking for a team coming off of an undefeated season, one that many felt deserved a chance to play for the national championship. But whereas power conference teams often reload instead of rebuild, replacing a starting QB is a little bigger bump in the road for the little guys. My vibes are telling me that the Horned Frogs will still be good, but won’t be anywhere near the BCS hunt this season.

 

 

19         Missouri

The Tigers schedule is brutal, with conference games at Oklahoma and at Texas A&M, plus an out-of-conference battle at Arizona St. They also have to replace a starting QB who is now in the NFL. Still, 8 or 9 wins would be plenty good enough for a solid top 20 finish.

20         Boise St.

I think we may be nearing the end of Boise’s 15 minutes of glory. I just don’t think we’ll see them in the top 10 mix anymore, even if they win 10+ games. The Mountain West…especially once TCU bolts for the Big East…just isn’t worthy of much esteem.

 

 

21         Nebraska

The Cornhuskers move to The Big 10 (which now has 12 teams) this season, so some might logically believe there would be a period of adjustment. However, I don’t believe there will be much of a dropoff, if any. As a matter of fact, I think they’ll blow thru the conference with relative ease save for a game at Wisconsin and maybe a couple of tough home games versus Northwestern & Michigan State.

22         Houston

I look for the Cougars to rebound from a disappointing 5-7 in 2011 and run roughshod over Conference USA. The season opener against UCLA looks a bit daunting, but it’s at home and the Bruins were only 4-8 themselves last season.

 

 

23         Arizona St.

The Pac 10 has suddenly become one of the deeper conferences in the country, with atleast half of its teams receiving preseason Top 25 buzz, depending upon where one looks. The Sun Devils have a 6ft.8 junior QB that opposing defenses should have difficulty bringing down.

24         LSU

Your traditional polls all have the Bayou Bengals firmly ensconced as a top 5 team, but as previously mentioned I’m not a follower. I’m predicting losses to out-of-conference foes West Virginia & Oregon and atleast two fellow SEC teams. The subpar two headed QB monster of Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee will finally blow up in the faces of the folks in Baton Rouge.

 

 

25         Notre Dame

It honestly causes me physical pain and emotional distress to put the hated Fighting Irish in my rankings. But the fact is that Notre Dame won’t stay down forever (no matter how much I fervently wish they would), and Brian Kelly is the best head coach to come to South Bend since Lou Holtz left in 1996. They will probably win atleast 9 games with relative ease.

 

 

 

 


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