2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 20

Folks, before we get down to business let’s address the elephant in the room. Zach & I both love football. We’ve both been hardcore Steelers fans our entire lives (my life being just a bit longer than his). Once, when I was a boy in the early 80’s, Pittsburgh lost the last game of the season (I’m not sure which year) and missed the playoffs. I cried like a baby. There are few things more enjoyable for me than vegging out in front of the TV on autumn Saturdays to watch college football from morning until the last west coast game ends around 1am, then watching “seven hours of commercial free football” on NFL RedZone Sunday afternoon. I started doing these picks several years ago because it combines a few things that I love: writing, football, and acting as if I know what the hell I’m talking about. Having said all of that, we are well aware that there’s a real world out there full of serious issues & life changing decisions. Football is usually an escape from those unpleasant realities, but it’s not breaking news to most that football & real life collided a few days ago. I’m not going to offer any medical opinions or hot takes, just sincere good mojo for Damar Hamlin, best wishes for the Buffalo Bills as they move thru the playoffs, and a tip of the cap to coaches, officials, league brass, & even TV talking heads who handled an unprecedented situation in a mostly professional & fair manner. 

Okay, so…we are tied coming into this final week. Zach was 3-1 last weekend, while I was 1-3. It goes without saying that the Bills-Bengals game we picked doesn’t count since they didn’t finish it. For our finale we are doing bonus picks…obviously…with each game having some kind of playoff implication. Watch the games. Enjoy them. Don’t feel guilty for doing so. But also don’t forget to call, text, or visit friends & family and tell them you love them. Distractions are fantastic, but reality can be pretty cool as well.

My Season: 54-59

Zach’s Season: 54-59

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-6.5)

This is a Saturday night game on ESPN, and Tennessee will have had a couple extra days of rest since they played on Thursday last week. The winner wins the AFC South. The Jags could win it outright, while the Titans have a better divisional record & would win the tiebreaker. Theoretically Jacksonville could still earn a wildcard berth even with a loss, but too many dominoes would have to fall perfectly, so it’s not a realistic scenario. I told you before the season that “the Jags could be headed in the right direction”, but they have exceeded expectations. The Titans have lost six in a row and simply have too many injuries. Even if RB Derrick Henry plays & looks good I don’t believe they’ll get the job done. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Jacksonville (21-13)

Z’s Pick: Jacksonville (28-17)

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-7)

I’m not sure how the NFL is going to handle this situation. Assuming the “postponed” game is not made up the Bengals will have played one less game, so if they lose they’d be 11-5 and the Ravens would be 11-6. However, in that scenario Baltimore would’ve won both meetings this season, and I suppose it’d make sense that they be declared division champions. Cincinnati could make it easy by winning the game and clearly earning a division title. QB Lamar Jackson has missed the last four games with a knee injury, and it is unknown if he’ll be available for the underdogs this week. It feels like Cincy is peaking at the right time after winning seven in a row. Who am I to question Big Mo(mentum)?? Zach sees it as a contrast of styles…Baltimore’s ball control offense vs. the Bengals’ big play potential…and he thinks the defending AFC champs have a great shot to make another deep run. 

My Pick: Cincinnati  (27-17)

Z’s Pick: Cincinnati (35-20)

Seattle (-6.5) at LA Rams 

The Seahawks need to win and hope Green Bay loses. That would get them the 7th seed in the NFC. A week ago I had too much faith that the defending champion Rams would rekindle some of that fire from last season, but instead they got blasted by the Chargers. Lesson learned. They may not make it far, but it’d be nice to see QB Geno Smith lead Seattle into the postseason. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Seattle  (31-17)

Z’s Pick: Seattle (31-10)

New England at Buffalo (-7.5)

The Steelers need New England to lose (seems like old times). That’s good enough for me. Hopefully by the time this one kicks off the outlook for Damar Hamlin will be more encouraging and the Bills will be invigorated to kick ass in his honor. Zach hasn’t lost faith in Pats’ QB Mac Jones, but thinks the rest of the team is a mess. 

My Pick: Buffalo (28-10)

Z’s Pick: Buffalo (28-7)

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-14)

Much to my surprise the Giants are playoff bound, and they are locked into the 6th seed. Philly is headed to the playoffs too, but they would prefer to be the NFC East champions, the conference’s top seed, and have a first round bye. That makes this a must win. Having said that, the points are redonkulous. These are not the Giants that I predicted to go 1-16 👀…these Giants are 9-6-1 and want to go to the postseason with momentum. They might not win, but it’ll be closer than two TDs. Zach is on the same page. 

My Pick: NY Giants   (21-30)

Z’s Pick: NY Giants  (20-24)

Dallas (-5.5) at Washington 

This rivalry was more fun when it was Cowboys vs. Indians. Anyway, Dallas is also battling for a division crown & the NFC’s #1 seed, but they have to win first. The Commanders were eliminated from playoff contention last weekend, but I have to assume they’d relish the role of spoiler. I don’t have much faith in the Cowboys making a deep playoff run, but I’d be surprised if they don’t go to DC & handle business. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Dallas  (34-14)

Z’s Pick: Dallas (28-13)

NY Jets at Miami {even}

It should be one of the most intriguing games of the day, even with both teams limping a bit. The Jets’ quarterback situation has been a mess, and I don’t think it matters whether Zach Wilson, Mike White, or Joe Flacco is the starter. Similarly, the Dolphins have seen starter Tua Tagovailoa battle concussion issues and lost backup Teddy Bridgewater to a finger injury. Third stringer Skylar Thompson was a 7th round pick out of Kansas St. and certainly looked like it last week (Thompson was chosen 15 spots ahead of 49ers QB Brock Purdy…think Miami would like to have a do-over??). There’s a chance Bridgewater might be available, which could help the home team. With so many variables in play it comes down to this for me: my Steelers need the Dolphins to lose. Zach agrees. 

My Pick: NY Jets  (16-14)

Z’s Pick: NY Jets (17-14)

Detroit at Green Bay (-4.5)

I said five months ago that “the surprise of the division might be Detroit”, and here we are with the Lions not only having an opportunity to snag a playoff berth, but eliminate the Packers in the process. For Green Bay it is simple…win & they’re in. Detroit has to win and hope that Seattle loses. This is the Sunday night contest on NBC, so the Lions will know the outcome of the Seahawks game by the time they kick off. I said a couple of weeks ago that “battling Aaron Rodgers with his back against a wall is dangerous”. The Pack has won four in a row and I don’t think that stops now. Detroit has a bright future and should be congratulated on their significant improvement, but I think their season ends on The Frozen Tundra. Not only does Zach believe Green Bay will win this game, but he thinks they are a legit Super Bowl contender. 

My Pick: Green Bay  (27-20)

Z’s Pick: Green Bay (28-20)

Y’all may have noticed that, for the first time ever, we predicted final scores. That’s because we agreed on the outcome of all eight games, meaning that we’re going to end up tied no matter what. Therefore, we are doing a “closest to the hole” tiebreaker. The lesser point differential for each game (regardless of the outcome) wins that game. Zach agreed to those terms, and I think it’ll make watching each game even more fun.

2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 18

Merry Christmas Manoverse!! To be honest I’ve struggled a bit to find my holiday mojo this year, but there have been moments. Unfortunately last weekend was not a seasonal highlight, as Zach (3-2) bested me (1-4), although I am holding on…barely…to the overall lead. This is an odd week, as the vast majority of games are being played on Saturday. There are Thursday & Monday night games, as well as a triple header on Christmas Day. So it looks like I’ll be flipping backing forth between football & movies for four days, which is fine with me. Who needs a wife, children, joy, and a house filled with love & happiness?? 👀

My Season: 50-54

Zach’s Season: 49-55

Seattle at Kansas City (-9.5)

At 7-7 the Seahawks haven’t been eliminated from playoff contention, but they’ve lost 4 out of the last five games and seem to be on a downward spiral. Conversely, the Chiefs have won 7 out of 8 and will win their division for the seventh consecutive year. Their goal now is to overcome Buffalo for the AFC’s top seed & a first round bye. Seattle will be without receiver Tyrone Lockett, which simplifies things for KC’s defense. I’d love to see a competitive contest, but I don’t think we will. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Kansas City 

Z’s Pick: Kansas City 

Cincinnati (-3.5) at New England 

The Bengals have once again proven to be the best team in the AFC North, though they haven’t clinched the division title just yet. Meanwhile, the once mighty Patriots need a little help to back into the postseason. This is one of those games where I wish both teams could lose, but since that isn’t possible I believe Cincy goes into enemy territory & comes out with a hard fought victory. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Cincinnati 

Z’s Pick: Cincinnati 

Philadelphia at Dallas (-5.5)

Philadelphia is the best team in the NFC, although if the season ended right now Dallas would be in the playoffs too. The last time these teams met in Philly in mid-October the Cowboys lost by nine points, and despite the possibility that Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts could be sidelined with a shoulder injury I don’t think the outcome will be any different. Zach agrees. 

My Pick: Philadelphia 

Z’s Pick: Philadelphia 

Green Bay at Miami (-4.5)

Despite an atrocious 6-8 record the Packers have not been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but they need a whole lot of things to go right. The Dolphins would be in the playoffs right now, but they’ve lost three straight games, a trend that has to stop immediately. It is certainly advantageous to be playing in the coziness of South Florida instead of the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field, but battling Aaron Rodgers with his back against a wall is dangerous. Zach, on the other hand, foresees Miami snagging a close victory late in the game. 

My Pick: Green Bay 

Z’s Pick: Miami 

Tampa Bay (-6.5) at Arizona 

Perhaps the only thing scarier that Rodgers in a must-win scenario is Tom Brady backed into a corner. The 6-8 Bucs play in the worst division in the NFL, so theoretically they could lose and still be okay, so long as Carolina, Atlanta, & New Orleans continue to be terrible. Meanwhile, the 4-10 Cardinals will be starting their third string QB due to injuries. On paper this should be a massacre…but will it be?? I gotta tell you folks…The Voices are screaming at me to roll the dice on this one…but I just can’t. I’d love to, but it wouldn’t be smart. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Tampa Bay  

Z’s Pick: Tampa Bay

2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 17

Okay, so…I’m running out of time in a busy week. As usual it was a bad idea to pick a Thursday night game, but it is what it is. Both of us are still under .500, so hopefully we can improve on that this weekend. Keep an eye out for our college bowl picks as well. Enjoy. 

My Season: 49-50

Zach’s Season:46-53

San Francisco (-3.5) at Seattle 

Is it possible that Mr. Irrelevant could become the next big time NFL quarterback?? That might be a tad optimistic, but Brock Purdy is impressing people in ‘Frisco thus far. At 7-6 the Seahawks have been far better than I anticipated, thanks on part to QB Geno Smith. Still, they are a couple of games behind the Niners in the division, so this feels like a must win. I think the home field is huge and will rattle Purdy. Conversely, despite their quarterback woes, Zach sees ‘Frisco as being on another level right now. 

My Pick: Seattle 

Z’s Pick: San Francisco 

Miami at Buffalo (-7.5)

The talking heads are once again questioning Tua Tagovailoa, who has struggled the past two games. Conversely, though they haven’t been perfect, few are doubting Buffalo’s Super Bowl credentials. Inclement weather could be a factor, but that still favors the Bills. Despite believing they’ve looked a bit sluggish Zach still thinks Buffalo will overcome the Dolphins’ speed at the skill positions on their way to a dominant win. 

My Pick: Buffalo 

Z’s Pick: Buffalo 

NY Giants at Washington (-4.5)

Neither team is winning the division, but I suppose one or the other could earn a wildcard. I have been surprised by the Giants’ relative success, but I still think Washington is a slightly better team. Zach thinks it’s a pretty even matchup, and he likes New York to snag a close win. 

My Pick: Washington 

Z’s Pick: NY Giants 

Tennessee at LA Chargers (-3)

The Titans will win the AFC South unless they completely collapse down the stretch. The Chargers got a huge win last Sunday night and are certainly in play for a wildcard. Can they get two victories in a row?? I don’t believe so. Ball control is important…Tennessee wins in the trenches. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Tennessee

Z’s Pick: Tennessee 

Detroit at NY Jets (-1)

I told you the Lions would pleasantly surprise people this year, and I also said that the Jets were on the rise but aren’t there quite yet. Both assessments have proven accurate. I don’t even know who’s playing quarterback for the home team this week though, and that’s an issue. I’m predicting a dominant Detroit performance. Zach agrees. 

My Pick: Detroit 

Z’s Pick: Detroit 

2021 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 19

We have officially entered unchartered waters my friends. With the NFL expanding their schedule naturally ours has grown as well, meaning we will have picked more games than ever before. If only we were better at this whole thing 😬. We’re doing bonus picks again because…well, why not?? It’s our last hurrah, so we may as well end with a bang, right?? Also, after going 5-2 a week ago I am six games below .500 and want to give myself a mathematical chance to break even. Will that happen?? I’m not holding my breath, but never say never. In addition to that, with a perfect 8-0 record this week, and if I were to go 0-8, Zach (3-4 a week ago) could theoretically earn a tie for the season lead. That is even more unlikely, but hey, we’re having fun. The NFL playoff picture is mostly clear, but a couple of berths remain up for grabs, as well as various seeding scenarios, so almost all of these games matter on some level.

My Season: 56-62

Zach’s Season: 48-70

Dallas (-7) at Philadelphia

Okay, so this is one game that doesn’t technically matter. The Cowboys already clinched the NFC South and can’t catch Green Bay for the top seed, while the Eagles are locked into a wildcard spot. But it’s a cool rivalry. Back at the end of September Dallas won the first matchup pretty easily, and one could logically expect a similar outcome. However, Philly now has the home field, and with nothing to lose or gain it’ll be interesting to see which superstar players on both sides sit this one out. The Cowboys have already lost WR Michael Gallup to injury (again), and I have a hunch they might play it safe with RB Zeke Elliott & QB Dak Prescott. That’d be enough to swing momentum to the home team. Zach isn’t impressed with Dallas’ offense and thinks Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts is good enough to lead his club to an upset victory.

My Pick: Philadelphia

Z’s Pick: Philadelphia

Buffalo (-17) at NY Jets

The first time they met in mid-November the Bills barely broke a sweat while winning easily. I don’t expect anything different this time, especially with the AFC East crown at stake. That being said, the points are a concern, especially with the Jets being at home. Could we see a scenario in which Buffalo is up by a couple of TDs in the 4th quarter and plays it safe by pulling their starters?? I think that is a very real possibility. Zach believes the favorites win the game but he doesn’t like the points.

My Pick: NY Jets

Z’s Pick: NY Jets

New England (-6.5) at Miami

Belichick isn’t sitting anyone or calling off the dogs late in the game. He’s just not built like that. Also, remember that the Dolphins went into Foxboro way back in the season opener and won by one point. That won’t happen again. Zach concurs.

My Pick: New England

Z’s Pick: New England

San Francisco at LA Rams (-5.5)

The Niners need to win and/or see New Orleans lose to secure a wildcard berth. The Rams need to win and/or Arizona to lose to win the NFC West. ‘Frisco won at home by three TDs back in mid-November, but they could be playing this one without QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who injured the thumb on his throwing hand right before Christmas. Rookie Trey Lance was 16/23 with 249 passing yards, 31 rushing yards, two TDs, and one interception in a 23-7 victory last weekend, but that was against the Houston Texans. The Rams have a far superior defense and the home field, so whether it is Lance or Jimmy G at less than 100% under center for the 49ers I don’t think it’ll make much difference. Zach agrees.

My Pick: LA Rams

Z’s Pick: LA Rams

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-3)

Round 2 of the Battle of Ohio is mostly inconsequential. The Browns will be watching the playoffs on TV as I predicted, while the Bengals already won the AFC North as I predicted. Cincy could move up a spot or down a spot in seeding depending on the outcome, but that’s the extent of the impact. It’s entirely possible that they’ll sit players like QB Joe Burrow and/or WR Jamarr Chase, although that is unlikely. Would it matter though?? When these teams met in Cincinnati back in early November the Browns won by three TDs, but they have proceeded to lose three straight games and QB Baker Mayfield is injured. I believe it’ll be four losses in a row and the Bengals will move on to the playoffs with positive momentum. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Cincinnati

Z’s Pick: Cincinnati

New Orleans (-4.5) at Atlanta

It’s a must-win for the Saints. They make the playoffs if they win this game and the Rams defeat the 49ers, which isn’t far-fetched at all. The Falcons occasionally show signs of life, but will end up with a losing record for the fourth year in a row. That being said, it must be noted that these two teams played in N’awleans the first week of November and the Falcons emerged victorious. Anything is possible, but I think the favorites gain a season split and sneak into the postseason. Zach likes the Saints defense to lead them to victory.

My Pick: New Orleans

Z’s Pick: New Orleans

Seattle at Arizona (-6.5)

A year ago this would’ve been a marquee matchup, but the Seahawks come into the final week 6-10 and in last place in their division. It’ll be their first losing season in a decade. Conversely, the Cards are on the verge of their first division title since 2015 IF the Rams lose their game, which I don’t think will happen. They’ll be in the playoffs though. Barring any unforeseen circumstances (you may have heard of a lil thing called COVID) I expect the home team to cruise to an easy win. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Arizona

Z’s Pick: Arizona

LA Chargers (-3) at Las Vegas

This is the Sunday night game, and probably the best matchup of the week. The Chargers aren’t going to win the division like I thought they would, but the future looks bright. Win & they are in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Raiders have faced a fair amount of upheaval this season yet still have an opportunity to earn a playoff spot. Win & they are in, or they could sneak thru the back door if the Steelers & Colts both lose. These teams met in Los Angeles on the first Monday night in October, with the Bolts winning by two TDs. I think it’ll be much tighter this time around, but my money is on the visitors being victorious in a squeaker. Zach believes the Chargers offense is way too good for the Raiders to overcome.

My Pick: LA Chargers

Z’s Pick: LA Chargers

2021 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 5

We didn’t pick the Clemson game last week, but please indulge me while I give myself a rare pat on the back. In my pre-season poll I pondered the question “Could it be that the ACC is getting better just as the (Clemson) Tigers aren’t quite as elite as they have been??”. It didn’t go down exactly like I thought it would, but yeah…I called it!! No playoff for Clemson this season. Now, if only my weekly picks in these games were as accurate. Sadly both Zach (2-3) and myself (1-4) struggled again last week, so I’m going against my better judgement by chasing wins with bonus picks. Y’all are welcome, even though it may just blow up in our faces.

My Season: 11-15

Zach’s Season: 10-16

Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-10.5)

I can’t be the only one who gets these two teams mixed up, so let’s take a little climb up the learning tree. The 2-2 Florida Atlantic Owls call Boca Raton (45 miles north of Miami) home, represent Conference USA, and are coached by Willie Taggart (former head coach at Oregon & Florida St.). The 1-3 Florida International Panthers are out of Miami, also play in C-USA, and their head coach is Butch Davis (who has also coached for Miami, North Carolina, & the Cleveland Browns). I don’t think there’s much of a home field advantage to be had, and in rivalry games like this most other conventional rules can be tossed aside. So it comes down to vibes and what assumptions one can make based on what we’ve seen thus far. FAU lost to Florida & Air Force, allowing both teams to score 30+ points. FIU has only played one game against top tier competition, and that was a four TD+ loss to Texas Tech. This feels like a relatively low scoring, tight game to be decided by turnovers, penalties, & special teams. Something along the lines of 28-24, which means that I don’t like the spread at all and will take the underdogs to cover. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Florida International 

Z’s Pick: Florida International

Cincinnati (-2.5) at Notre Dame 

I had to look at those odds multiple times utilizing a few different sources. Sure, Cincy is a solid team that had two consecutive 11 win seasons before last year’s abbreviated campaign in which they logged 9 victories before narrowly losing to Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They handled a well regarded Indiana team last week. I am by no means saying that the Bearcats aren’t good. However, they’re an AAC team typically not on the same level as a program like Notre Dame. Not only that, but this game is in South Bend and the 4-0 Irish have given no one any reason to doubt them outside of being pushed into overtime by Florida St. in the season opener. Hell, they took Wisconsin’s best punch a week ago and still won by 4 TDs, so what am I missing?? Why is Cincinnati favored in this game?!?!?!?? It sounds pretty insane to me, so I’m going with the home team to score the “upset”. Conversely, Zach believes the Bearcats are for real and this is their opportunity to prove they belong in the playoff conversation. 

My Pick: Notre Dame 

Z’s Pick: Cincinnati 

Ole Miss at Alabama (-14.5)

Well, atleast we don’t have to worry about Clemson in the playoff, so it’ll be fresh to some degree. Now if only we could see the Tide lose a couple of games and fall out of contention, how cool would that be?? Unfortunately that’s probably not going to happen. ‘Bama has won four games by an average of 29 points, although it should be noted that they’ve not faced anyone with a pulse other than Florida, a game they only won by two points. The Rebels are 3-0 and have also beaten up on clearly inferior competition. In attendance will be highly touted recruit Arch Manning, Peyton & Eli’s nephew. It is my understanding that both Ole Miss & Alabama are high on his list, so it’ll be interesting to hear down the line how this game affected his decision. At any rate, if it were being played in Oxford I might be tempted to pick the upset. Enigmatic Rebels’ head coach Lane Kiffin spent a few years as ‘Bama’s offensive coordinator awhile back so obviously he’d love to snatch a shocking victory. However, with the game being contested in Tuscaloosa I just don’t see it happening. The only question is if the home team can cover the points, and I believe they will. Zach’s man crush on Nick Saban makes his choice easy. 

My Pick: Alabama

Z’s Pick: Alabama 

Arkansas at Georgia (-18.5)

I didn’t think the Razorbacks were legit, but I was wrong. They handled Texas A&M and moved into the Top 10. Unfortunately they now must travel to Athens and challenge the undefeated #2 Bulldogs. I’d be really surprised if Georgia loses, but can they cover?? The points feel a bit disrespectful. Having said that, it feels like a “go big or go home” moment, and I did pick Georgia to be a playoff team and thus far they’ve done nothing to dissuade me, so I’m counting on them to notch a three touchdown victory. Zach respects Georgia’s defense & team speed, but he doesn’t like the spread and thinks Arkansas will keep it close.

My Pick: Georgia

Z’s Pick: Arkansas 

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Good Lord the Bears were awful a week ago. At the time of publication it is unknown whether the Bears’ starting QB will be rookie Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, or Nick Foles…but does it matter?? Conversely, the Lions are coming off a last second loss to the Baltimore Ravens in which it took the longest field goal in NFL history to beat them. Can they use that heartbreaking defeat as motivation?? If they were playing a playoff caliber team I might have doubts, but the Bears aren’t that, so I think Detroit scores the mild upset. Zach agrees on all counts. 

My Pick: Detroit 

Z’s Pick: Detroit 

Seattle at San Francisco (-3)

In my NFL Preview I predicted that the NFC West would be fun to watch, and so far they have not disappointed. This game might end up being a factor in a few months when deciding a playoff spot, and don’t think for a second these teams don’t realize that. Seattle lost to the Minnesota Vikings last weekend, while ‘Frisco was on the losing end of an unsurprising Aaron Rodgers miracle, so both clubs will be looking to rebound. I think the home field actually does make a difference, so I’m picking the Niners. Zach, on the other hand, believes potential league MVP Russell Wilson will lead his team to victory. 

My Pick: San Francisco 

Z’s Pick: Seattle 

Arizona at LA Rams (-6)

Staying in the NFC West, these are the teams I believe will be battling for the division crown at the end, so it’s a pretty big early season matchup. Both are undefeated, but obviously that’ll change for one of them. It looks like the trade for QB Matthew Stafford was a wise move for the Rams, while the Cards have developed into a seemingly complete team. This is a tossup for me, but whoever wins I think it’ll be by less than a touchdown. Zach foresees a close game but believes the home team will cover. 

My Pick: Arizona 

Z’s Pick: LA Rams 

Tampa Bay (-6.5) at New England

It’s the Brady Bowl. I’m sure the folks in Boston & Tampa are pumped, but personally I’d rather see both teams lose. That being said, I think it’s been well established by now that the “Patriot Dynasty” was more about Brady than it ever was about Belichick. The oddsmakers seem to agree since the home team is a near touchdown underdog. The Sunday Night Football folks at NBC are probably going to be disappointed because I think this one will be over rather quickly and the defending Super Bowl champs might win by 4 or 5 TDs. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Tampa Bay 

Z’s Pick: Tampa Bay 

2021 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 3

Credit where credit is due…Zach nailed the Cleveland/Kansas City game a week ago. He predicted that the Chiefs would start slow and the game would be close, and that’s exactly what happened. Having said that, I am also going to take an opportunity to pat my own back for picking the Chargers over Washington and New Orleans over the Packers. So at the end of the day Zach was 3-4, while I was only slightly better at 4-3. As I have stated before, we don’t put money on these picks and there is a reason for that.

My Season: 8-8

Zach’s Season: 7-9

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Indiana

Apparently Bearcats’ head coach Luke Fickell is amongst the leading candidates to get the vacant gig at USC. I am sure he would make significantly more money in that scenario, but personally I think it’d be crazy to leave a solid team on the rise that will be joining a Power 5 conference in a couple of years to enter the pressure cooker of leading a program that considers anything less than a national championship to be a disappointment. Anyway, as far as this game goes, both teams are coming off of solid seasons a year ago, but they’ve gotten off to vastly different starts this year. Cincinnati is already 2-0, while the Hoosiers are 1-1, having been obliterated in their season opener at Iowa. I think Cincy is still ascending, while Indy may have peaked last year. I don’t believe this game will be particularly close, and Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Cincinnati 

Z’s Pick: Cincinnati

Oklahoma State at Boise State (-4.5)

Well, the Big 12 has sent out invitations to the conference realignment party and the Broncos aren’t on the guest list. If you understand there is much more that goes into all of that than just success on the football field then you aren’t surprised. Nevertheless, this is another opportunity for Boise to prove that they can compete on the field even if they fall short off of it. Thus far they are 1-1, with that heartbreaking loss to UCF in the season opener reverberating even here in West Virginia. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have become a forgotten team in the Big 12, but they are 2-0. I know about the blue turf & all that jazz, but I’m going with the upset in this one. With the Big 12 shuffling its lineup in a couple of years I believe the Cowboys will want to begin showing that Texas & Oklahoma won’t be missed. Conversely, Zach thinks a turnover will make the difference in a close Boise victory. 

My Pick: Oklahoma State

Z’s Pick: Boise State 

Minnesota at Arizona (-4)

Is it possible that I overvalued Minnesota while underappreciating Arizona in my NFL Preview?? A week ago the Cards had no problem taking down my predicted Super Bowl Champions, while the Vikings lost to the Bengals in overtime. It looks like Arizona is a better team than I thought they’d be, so I have to pick them in this one. Zach believes the Cardinals look like a legit Super Bowl contender and will win easily. 

My Pick: Arizona 

Z’s Pick: Arizona 

Tennessee at Seattle (-5.5)

As mentioned, Tennessee was beaten soundly by Arizona a week ago, while Seattle defeated the Indianapolis Colts. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson already looks to be in mid-season form, and that home field is extremely difficult for opponents. If Tennessee can control the clock with RB Derrick Henry eating up yardage they might be able to keep it close, but Henry’s measly 58 yards in the season opener doesn’t inspire confidence. Zach sees Wilson as an early front runner for MVP and predicts a double digit win for the home team. 

My Pick: Seattle 

Z’s Pick: Seattle 

Kansas City (-2.5) at Baltimore 

Cleveland gave Kansas City a real fight last week, but does that mean the Browns are that good, or that KC just wasn’t as prepared as they should have been?? One could ask the same question about Baltimore, who lost a hell of a game on Monday night in Vegas. In my season preview I predicted that the Ravens wouldn’t be as good as most “experts” thought they’d be, and a rash of injuries to their stable of running backs has made me even more confident in that assessment. I believe the Chiefs will shake the cobwebs of last week’s slow start and be emboldened by overcoming it to get a hard fought victory. It won’t be easy on the road, but look for a comfortable KC win. Zach thinks it’ll be close but likes the road team to cover the points. 

My Pick: Kansas City 

Z’s Pick: Kansas City 

2019 NFL Preview & Prognostications

I was at an outdoor concert a couple of weeks ago, and as darkness fell around 9pm I felt a slight chill in the air. Autumn was in the breeze. That’s a feeling I usually don’t experience until Labor Day Weekend while attending our local Italian Heritage Festival. In the moment I was not pleased because I tend to prefer the warmth & sunshine of summer. I have nothing particular against fall except for the fact that it ushers in winter, which I despise. At any rate, in an effort to find a silver lining and think positive I must say that there are a few good things about autumn…my birthday, Halloween, & football. Glorious football is back!! It’s time once again to look into the pigskin crystal ball and make some predictions about how this season might play out. I don’t put a whole lot of stock in pre-season, but there are injuries, holdouts, & emergent rookies we can’t ignore. As always the team’s record from the previous year is in parentheses, with the predicted record for this season following it. And remember…no wagering. I am not a professional and most of the time I’m not very good at this. Let’s just relax & have some fun.

 

  

 

 

North

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-1) 10-6

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) 9-7

Cleveland Browns (7-8-1) 8-8

Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) 3-13

Despite an eventful off-season that saw talented but troubled WR Antonio Brown shipped to The Left Coast I don’t think my Steelers will implode. However, I do expect divisional games to be even more competitive than usual. Don’t sleep on the Ravens…they’ll battle for every yard on both sides of the ball, and new QB Lamar Jackson is feast or famine: he’ll have moments of pure brilliance, but he needs to become a better passer and has to stay healthy. Everyone needs to slow their roll on the “new & improved” Browns. Going back to his college days I’ve always opined that QB Baker Mayfield gave me a Bret Favre-ish vibe, and I see it now more than ever. Adding receivers Odell Beckham Jr. & Jarvis Landry into the mix along with a backfield of Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt bodes well for the offense. I like their defense too…DEs Myles Garrett & Olivier Vernon and tackle Sheldon Richardson should be stout against the run as well as put some pressure on opposing QBs, and the secondary might be sneaky good. Having said that, I’m not buying Cleveland as a playoff team just yet. The Bengals finally pushed longtime head coach Marvin Lewis out the door, but I’m not sure 35 year old Zac Taylor is the answer. He’s never been a head coach at any level and the learning curve will be quite foreboding. Regardless of whether or not Taylor lasts more than a season or two Cincy probably needs to blow things up and construct a whole new roster from the ground up.

 

 

South

Indianapolis Colts (10-6) 10-6

Houston Texans (11-5) 9-7

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) 9-7

Tennessee Titans (9-7) 5-11

There are just so many questions…this might be the most difficult division in the league to calculate. Can Colts’ QB Andrew Luck stay healthy?? Will QB Nick Foles be the answer Jacksonville has been seeking?? Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry, Lamar Miller, or Leonard Fournette…which running back will lead the pack?? Will any of these four defenses emerge as elite (the Jags were #5 a year ago, the Titans #8, Indy & Houston were #11 & #12)?? I’m downgrading Indianapolis a bit due to concerns about Luck’s ankle, but still think they will win the division if he doesn’t miss more than a couple of games. I like Foles and the Jags’ defense is stout, but have serious doubts about the durability of Fournette and the rest of their skill players inspire little confidence. I love Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson, but somebody other than WR DeAndre Hopkins has to step up and be reliably productive. Houston has the same issue on the defense…JJ Watt is fantastic, but others have to contribute. My vibe is that they take a step back this season, make some adjustments, and become serious contenders in 2020. This feels like a make or break year for Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota. When he came out of Oregon in 2015 the big debate about who would go #1 overall in the draft was between him and Florida St.’s Jameis Winston. Winston went to Tampa while Mariota was chosen next, but neither quarterback has set the world on fire. There just seems to be something amiss in Tennessee. I think they decline slightly and head coach Mike Vrabel finds himself on the hot seat.

 

 

East

New England Patriots (11-5) 10-6

New York Jets (4-12) 8-8

Miami Dolphins (7-9) 8-8

Buffalo Bills (6-10) 3-13

Here we go again. Tom Brady appears to be ageless and Bill Belichick’s stature as a head coach grows with each passing year, despite his shady tactics. The Patriots have become Tiger Woods from two decades ago when he was winning a lot but we all knew he really only cared about the majors. In much the same way it seems like everyone understands that New England will win a rather weak division, and their only true goal is another Super Bowl. With that in mind I think they’ll win the division but not run away with it. Jets’ QB Sam Darnold continues his maturation process, and now he has RB Le’Veon Bell as a safety net. I like what the Jets are doing and believe they’ll noticeably improve. I feel bad for Dolphins & Bills fans. They’ve known for a decade & a half that their teams aren’t winning the division, but they don’t even get to enjoy watching obvious progress. Both squads just seem to be treading water and perpetuating their mediocrity with poor coaching hires, bad free agent moves, and subpar drafts.

 

 

West

Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) 11-5

Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) 10-6

Oakland Raiders (4-12) 6-10

Denver Broncos (6-10) 3-13

At the time of publication Chargers’ RB Melvin Gordon is threatening to continue his holdout into the start of the season, which could certainly have a negative impact. Even if he’s back in uniform Week 1 there have to be questions about fitness & durability after sitting out the entire pre-season. It’s a messy situation that opens the door just enough for the Chiefs to slip by & take the division. There’s a lot to like about KC, led by NFL MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Speaking of messy situations, the Antonio Brown Circus has moved from Pittsburgh to Oakland, which theoretically should make the Raiders better on the field…but I’m not convinced. I’ve lost track of whether this is the team’s final season in Oakland or if they’ll have to wait until 2021 to relocate to Las Vegas, but until that move occurs I think the Raiders are stuck in neutral. The Broncos have ostensibly improved their quarterback quandary with the addition of Joe Flacco & by drafting Drew Lock out of Missouri in the second round of the draft. They also have new head coach Vic Fangio, which should help the defense. Give this group time to gel & they have potential, but I have low expectations for the current season.

 

Playoff Teams:   Chiefs, Steelers, Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Texans

AFC Championship:    New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers

 

 

 

 

North

Chicago Bears (12-4) 11-5

Minnesota Vikings (8-7-1) 8-8

Green Bay Packers (6-9-1) 8-8

Detroit Lions (6-10) 5-12

The more things change the more they stay the same, and I don’t expect much difference in what ESPN’s Chris Berman used to call the Norris Division. The Packers have a new head coach and QB Aaron Rodgers has become increasingly enigmatic. The Vikings have some talent but not enough to move the needle. The Lions are…well, they’re the Lions. That leaves the Bears to claim another division crown and vie for home field thru the playoffs. QB Mitch Trubisky should take another step in his development and I have high expectations. Combined with a tough defense that makes for a potentially elite team. Anything short of an appearance in the conference title game will be a disappointment for Chicago.

 

 

South

New Orleans Saints (13-3) 14-2

Atlanta Falcons (7-9) 9-7

Carolina Panthers (7-9) 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11) 2-14

My heart still hurts for the Saints and their fans. They absolutely should have been in the Super Bowl last season but got royally screwed by an inept officiating crew. My vibe is that situation will provide motivation to an already very solid team. QB Drew Brees is almost as nature-defying as Brady, but I suspect this may be his last great opportunity to get another Lombardi Trophy. The Falcons & Panthers will both be good but not great, and I have serious concerns about the health & durability of Carolina QB Cam Newton. Tampa is just a warmer version of Buffalo with a more heralded QB. They can change coaches and do all the tinkering they want, but none of their decisions seem to work out the way they hope. Jameis Winston is undeniably talented, but I just don’t think he is a top shelf NFL quarterback.

 

 

East

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) 10-6

Dallas Cowboys (10-6) 9-7

Washington Redskins (7-9) 7-9

New York Giants (5-11) 6-10

The Eagles’ safety blanket is gone, so QB Carson Wentz better stay healthy. Not only that, but he needs to live up to the hype. The division will be a dog fight, and Wentz needs to fulfill his potential for Philly to come out on top. I’m not buying the Cowboys’ hype. I don’t think they’ll be horrible, but the holdout of RB Zeke Elliott could have a negative impact. Media types will yap endlessly about a “quarterback controversy” in New York, but does it really matter?? I’ve never thought Eli Manning was that good, and if he loses the starting gig to rookie Daniel Jones it says a lot more about Manning than it does Jones. Either way the Giants’ QB…whomever it may be…won’t have Odell Becham Jr. to throw to, and that’s a problem. RB Saquon Barkley can only do so much, right?? The Redskins will have some solid games and at times look like a potential playoff team, but at the end of the day their fans will be disappointed and be left to wonder what happened. Head coach Jay Gruden is an offensive coordinator masquerading as a head coach, successfully trading on his more famous brother’s name, and he’s not going to achieve much success with Case Keenum as his starting quarterback. Rookie signal caller Dwayne Haskins will likely snag the job by mid-season, so there is some hope for the future.

 

 

West

Los Angeles Rams (13-3) 10-6

San Francisco 49ers (4-12) 9-7

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) 8-8

Arizona Cardinals (3-13) 4-12

I hated what happened in the NFC Championship game last season not only because of how the Saints got shafted, but also because I knew the Rams were sitting ducks in the Super Bowl. As talented as they are I just knew that the Patriots were foaming at the mouth to take on a young & inexperienced coach/QB combo, and it turned out exactly as I knew it would. And now the Rams aren’t a secret to the rest of the league so their opponents will be more prepared than a year ago. I still think they’ll win the division, but it won’t be quite as effortless. Jimmy G. is back under center for the Niners, and that means a huge turnaround. They’ll be in a battle with several other teams for a wildcard berth, but that’s a nice change from last season. Seattle still has Russell Wilson and they made some solid draft picks, but I believe they’ll take a step back this year. The Cards are trying to copy the Rams’ formula, but I’m not convinced it’ll work. Kliff Kingsbury probably needed a few more years as a college coach before taking the helm of an NFL team, and Kyler Murray is a perfect example of a great college quarterback whose skills just don’t translate to the NFL. Kudos to the powers-that-be in Arizona for rolling the dice and trying something new, but two years from now Kingsbury will probably be coaching on Saturdays and Murray will be playing baseball…if NFL defenses don’t maim the little guy.

 

Playoff Teams:   Saints, Bears, Rams, Eagles, Falcons, 49ers

NFC Championship:   New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears

 

 

 

             35

 

 

 

 

           34

 

 

 

 

 

Top 5 Picks in 2020 NFL Draft

1       Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2       Denver Broncos

3       Cincinnati Bengals

4       Buffalo Bills

5       Arizona Cardinals

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 17

Time flies when you’re having fun. Isn’t that the common expression?? I can hardly believe that we’re near the end of another football season. It seems like just yesterday the warm summer breeze of August was blowing as we began this journey, and now the cold winds of the holidays are making cozy blankets & hot mugs of cocoa the accessories of choice as we watch another year come to a close. I am pondering a slam bang finish to our entertaining little project next week, but for now we move forward after a week in which Zach (3-2) bested me (1-4) and point spreads were a key difference. He probably doesn’t have much of a chance to catch me for the season crown, but a strong finish is always nice, and I’m just trying to get back above .500.

My Season:        50-52

Z’s Season:        43-60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cincinnati                    at      Cleveland (-8.5)

In my season preview I predicted that for the Browns “winning more games than they’ve won in total over the past couple of seasons would be cause for optimism. If that actually happens then it could mean a last place finish for the Bengals”. As we near the conclusion of the season Cleveland has already won the six games I said they would and they’re currently a half game above Cincinnati in the standings. So basically my prediction comes down to this game, and it just so happens to be in Cleveland. Zach likes the way the Browns have been playing and believes they will win the game…but he isn’t comfortable with the points and doesn’t think they’ll cover.

My Pick:     Cleveland

Z’s Pick:     Cincinnati

 

 

 

 

Green Bay (-3.5)                   at      NY Jets

In that same season preview I gave the Packers eight wins, and said they “are leaning on their reputation but in reality aren’t that good”. As it turns out they’re even worse than I thought. The Jets have also been even worse than I imagined they would be since I predicted they’d get to seven wins. Neither team seems to have any momentum and both seem to be limping to the finish line, so I’m not sure where to go with this one. New York has the home field, so I’ll lean in that direction. Zach thinks both teams are bad but still believes the Jets are worse.

My Pick:     NY Jets

Z’s Pick:     Green Bay

 

 

 

 

Houston             at      Philadelphia (-2)

Could history be repeating itself?? Will backup QB Nick Foles spell an injured Carson Wentz, get his team on a run, & lead them back to The Super Bowl?? Ehhh…probably not. I suppose they could still get into the playoffs, but this game is probably a must win, and the Texans have won 10 out of their last 11 games. I am somewhat surprised that Philly…even with the home field…is favored. That seems more than a little disrespectful to Houston, and I’m not buying it. Zach is all in on Foles and is predicting another Philly upset.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Philadelphia

 

 

 

 

Kansas City (-2.5)      at      Seattle

I was way off in my assessment of the Seahawks. I opined that “Seattle’s Legion of Boom has been relegated to the dust bin of history and their once imposing defense looks totally decimated” before predicting that they’d win only five games. They are currently 8-6 and could clinch a wildcard with a home victory against the celebrated Chiefs, who need to keep winning to secure a division title or else they’ll be one of the best wildcard teams in recent memory. Both teams have plenty of motivation and something to play for…I just think KC is the better team. Zach thinks the home field for Seattle is an advantage that the Chiefs won’t overcome.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Seattle

 

 

 

Denver (-2.5)      at      Oakland

There have already been rumors that Broncos head coach Vance Joseph is about to lose his job. They are 6-8, which is atleast better than the 2-14 I penciled in for them a few months ago, but I suppose when combined with a 5-11 finish a year ago one can understand a lack of patience from the front office. The Raiders are a few games worse than their opponents, but we all know that Gruden will get a pass for a couple of years before the powers-that-be start to get restless. Once this season is finished their focus will quickly turn to the team’s impending move to Las Vegas as well as the three first round draft picks they’ll have this spring. So, while both teams are suffering thru an horrendous season I think it’s fair to say that they are on opposite ends of the hope spectrum. The stark contrast in future outlook might be enough to make a difference. Conversely, Zach foresees Denver scoring an easy victory.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Denver

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

There’s no way to sugarcoat it…we both (2-6) did horrible last week. We are far enough into the football season now that I’ve begun to realize that many of my predictions & prognostications may have been a bit off base. I will need to reevaluate several of my preconceived notions, like not having much faith in a freshman quarterback or assuming certain personnel losses or changes may have a deleterious effect on a team. Perhaps a few of my assumptions will pan out in the long run, but this isn’t the start for which I’d hoped. At any rate, we move forward during a week when the schedule isn’t all that appealing. I do my best not to be repetitive with the teams we pick and try to spread the love, but there is no denying that the most interesting college games are ones pitting top ranked opponents against one another or that out of 32 NFL teams there are about a dozen that stand out as eminently more watchable. We are further limited by our own biases because it is difficult to be objective when it comes to certain teams so we do our best to avoid those games. Having said all that, we’ve done this for several years now and found a way to muddle thru, and so we shall continue.

My Season:        8-10

Z’s Season:        7-11

 

 

 

 

 

Florida (-5)                   at                Tennessee

These days when people gush about the vaunted SEC it’s all about Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, and whichever Mississippi school happens to be having a good year, but not that long ago the Gators and the Vols were sitting atop the mountain. Florida won national championships under Steve Spurrier then Urban Meyer in the late 90’s & early 2K’s, but they’ve only won 10+ games three times in the past decade and haven’t won the conference title since 2008. Tennessee hasn’t laid claim to any championships of any kind since the late 90’s when a young man named Peyton Manning was under center in Knoxville, and they haven’t won ten games in a season since 2007. Both teams come into this weekend 2-1, but I’m not sure anything of value can be learned from those games. It is interesting that Florida is favored despite the game being played at the massive Neyland Stadium. I’m sure there will be over 100k in attendance treating this like a playoff game, and I think that may work in Tennessee’s favor. Zach isn’t sure what to think about this game, but he’s rolling the dice on the Gators.

My Pick:     Tennessee

Z’s Pick:     Florida

 

 

 

Stanford (-1.5)             at                Oregon

The Ducks snuck into my pre-season poll and I thought there might be a chance they’d get to eight victories and win a couple of games they aren’t supposed to win. So far so good, as they’re 3-0, although this will be their first real test. Stanford is also 3-0, including an impressive win over USC. Heisman hopeful Bryce Love will be toting the rock after missing last week’s game with an apparent concussion. It’s a total vibe game for me, and The Voices are quacking. Zach believes it’ll be a close game for three quarters but Stanford will eventually pull away.

My Pick:     Oregon

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

 

Cincinnati  (-3)              at                Carolina

I predicted that the Bengals would win five games, finish in last place, and head coach Marvin Lewis would be fired. Right now they are 2-0 and atop the AFC North, so I may have been slightly wrong. Conversely, I had Carolina winning 12 games and easily capturing the NFC South. They are 1-1 so that prediction may work out eventually. Anyway, I’m not sure what kind of hurricane damage Charlotte suffered or if the storm’s aftermath will have an effect on attendance, but I do find it interesting that Cincy is favored. The injury bug seems to have bitten the Bengals, including RBs Joe Mixon and Giovanni Bernard. Even if both are good to go on Sunday that’s enough for me to lean in the other direction. Zach thinks the Bungles will screw things up if/when they make it to the playoffs, but he likes them in this game.

My Pick:     Carolina

Z’s Pick:     Cincinnati

 

 

LA Chargers                at                LA Rams (-7)

It’s the Battle of Los Angeles, featuring teams that were playing in San Diego & St. Louis just a couple of years ago. I suppose there is no real home field advantage. The Rams are 2-0 while the Chargers are 1-1, but that doesn’t really tell us much. I predicted both would win their division, although it looks like the road may be somewhat tougher for the Chargers. Here’s what I’m thinking: a high scoring game that goes down to the wire (maybe even OT) and is decided by a field goal. If that’s the case the pick has to be the Chargers. Zach thinks the Rams’ offense is just too overwhelming and will lead their team to an easy win.

My Pick:     LA Chargers

Z’s Pick:     LA Rams

 

 

 

Dallas                           at                Seattle (-1.5)

Having this game on the docket says more about the lack of exciting games on the schedule than it does my interest in watching. As predicted the 0-2 Seahawks are a shell of their former selves and look to be headed for a dismal season. The Cowboys are 1-1 and I still maintain that they’ll end up with a losing record as well. The home field advantage has to be respected for Seattle, as CenturyLink Field is usually one of the loudest in the NFL. I’m going out on a limb and forecasting QB Russell Wilson to have a big game and lead his team to one of the few victories they’ll have all year. Zach is putting all the pressure on RB Zeke Elliot to lead the Cowboys to victory.

My Pick:     Seattle

Z’s Pick:     Dallas

2018 NFL Preview & Prognostications

The old saying is that “hindsight is 20/20”, and sometimes hindsight can also be absolutely hilarious. There is a Facebook page called Freezing Cold Takes which posts old tweets & comments from talking heads about players, teams, games, & draft picks that turned out to be way wrong, which is great because I’ve always thought it terrible that no one holds those people accountable for some of the outrageous opinions that they spew in an effort to get attention and stir the pot. Here at The Manofesto I do reflect on stuff I’ve written in the past and often call myself out on things about which I’ve been off base, and in looking back at last year’s preview I just have to roll my eyes that I said “football is a uniter, not a divider”, since the NFL proceeded to spend the next few months dividing the nation with their idiotic anthem protests. I’d like to think that this season will be different, but between renewed debate about those protests in addition to new rules that turn what used to commonly be referred to as a tackle into a penalty, I’m not sure football fans will be any happier with the NFL in 2018. Atleast they loosened up and clarified exactly what a catch is, so I suppose that’s progress. And as far as hindsight goes, a year ago I did throw out a plea for someone to “give Jon Gruden a coaching job and get him off our TVs”, so a shout out to the Raiders for answering that prayer.  As always the team’s record from the previous year is in parentheses, with the predicted record for this season following it. Enjoy.

 

 

 

 

North

Minnesota Vikings       (13-3)         11-5

Chicago Bears             (5-11)        8-8

Green Bay Packers     (7-9)           8-8

Detroit Lions                 (9-7)           6-10

 

The Vikings swapped out Case Keenum for Kirk Cousins at QB, which theoretically should be an upgrade. The defense was already stellar, and they’ve now added defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson and drafted cornerback Mike Hughes in the first round, so I see no reason to expect a dropoff. Minnesota won’t take anyone by surprise this year, but I still think they’ll win the division easily. The biggest surprise might be the Bears. I really like quarterback Mitch Trubisky, Jordan Howard & Tarik Cohen make for a great running back tandem, & I think wide receiver Kevin White (formerly of my WVU Mountaineers) will finally stay healthy and prove why he was a first round pick in 2015. My concern is with Chicago’s defense, and with this being new head coach Matt Nagy’s first season I think the playoffs are a bit much to expect. I feel like the Packers are leaning on their reputation but in reality aren’t that good. QB Aaron Rodgers has spent most of the offseason gallivanting around with new girlfriend Danica Patrick, and it wouldn’t be the first time that an athlete’s personal life has distracted them from their job. The Lions have a new coach too…former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who was indicted for sexual assault back in his college days but not convicted, something he didn’t feel was important to mention to the powers-that-be in Detroit during the hiring process. I think Patricia will get the Lions over the hump someday…but not this year. The roster simply isn’t good enough and the division is too tough.

 

 

 

South

Carolina Panthers                 (11-5)         12-4

Atlanta Falcons                     (10-6)         7-9

New Orleans Saints              (11-5)         6-10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers      (5-11)         2-14

 

The NFC South has been one of the most compelling & competitive divisions in the league the past few years, but I don’t believe that’ll be the case in 2018. Cam Newton is in his eighth season under center for the Panthers, and it feels like the time for hype is over and he actually needs to lead his team back to the Super Bowl, a height they reached in 2015 before getting throttled by the Denver Broncos. I’m just not feeling good vibes about the Falcons or Saints, although I’d love to see 39 year old Drew Brees end his career on a high note in the next couple of seasons. I foresee sharp declines for Atlanta and New Orleans this year. I’ve never been a huge fan of Bucs QB Jameis Winston…not because he lacks talent since he is actually quite capable, but because he seems like kind of a jackass. Once again he is being accused of improper conduct, this time for allegedly groping an Uber driver a couple of years ago. The NFL found enough merit in the charge that they suspended Winston for the first few games of the season, and I don’t think things will get much better for the team once he returns.

 

 

 

East

Philadelphia Eagles              (13-3)         12-4

Washington Redskins                    (7-9)           9-7

Dallas Cowboys                              (9-7)           7-9

New York Giants                   (3-13)         6-10

 

A year ago I predicted that the Eagles would finish 5-11 and have the third overall pick in the NFL Draft. Instead they won 13 games & the division and went on to upset the Pats in the Super Bowl. Now starting QB Carson Wentz is returning from a torn ACL suffered late last season, and Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles is the backup, which seems unfair to the rest of the league. The Redskins lost Kirk Cousins but replaced him under center with Alex Smith, which feels like a lateral move. The Cowboys have Dak Prescott back as their quarterback, but I’m not sure he has anyone to thrown the ball to after the departure of Dez Bryant and the retirement of tight end Jason Witten. Sure they have RB Zeke Elliot, but what if defenses stack eight in the box and dare Prescott to beat them?? That won’t end well for Dallas. As much as some may disagree, I don’t believe the Giants are going to get back into the playoff hunt as long as Eli Manning is their quarterback. Eli has benefited from his family ties and a couple of really lucky Super Bowl wins, but in general I’ve always felt that he is overrated and now he is on the downside of his career. The Giants drafted running back Saquon Barkley second overall, and he will undoubtedly open up the offense allowing receiver Odell Beckham to catch his fair share of touchdowns, but I just don’t think it’ll be enough, especially if the defense doesn’t gel.

 

 

 

West

Los Angeles Rams               (11-5)         10-6

San Francisco 49ers            (6-10)         10-6

Seattle Seahawks                 (9-7)           5-11

Arizona Cardinals                  (8-8)           3-13

 

Seattle’s Legion of Boom has been relegated to the dust bin of history and their once imposing defense looks totally decimated. But hey, atleast they still have Russell Wilson at quarterback, right?? That’s the only reason I’m picking the Seahawks to win more games than the Cardinals, because Arizona is going into the season with fragile Sam Bradford as their signal caller…unless first rounder Josh Rosen steals the job in the pre-season. The 49ers seemed like a completely different team after they traded for QB Jimmy Garoppolo in the latter stages of last season, and I think he’s the real deal. I’m not all that confident in the weapons Jimmy G. has surrounding him, but if the defense is as good as it looks to be on paper then ‘Frisco could pull out their fair share of tight, low scoring games. Conversely, the Rams should put plenty of points on the board as young QB Jared Goff gets in sync with receivers Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Pharoah Cooper, & Brandin Cooks. Oh, and they have top flight running back Todd Gurley toting the rock. So if the defense is even slightly above average I think the Rams have to be the favorites by a nose over San Francisco.

 

 

Playoff Teams:   Minnesota, Carolina, Philadelphia, L.A. Rams, Washington, San Francisco

NFC Championship:   Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North

Pittsburgh Steelers               (13-3)         11-5

Baltimore Ravens                 (9-7)           8-8

Cleveland Browns                 (0-16)         6-10

Cincinnati Bengals                (7-9)           5-11

 

It is a testament to how little regard I (and most of the football viewing public) give the Browns that I didn’t even realize that they went 0-16 last season. I thought they’d won atleast one game, but that was in 2016. I’m not all that enamored with #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield not because he doesn’t have potential but because I think Cleveland could’ve made some deals, improved their team, and still snagged Mayfield later in the first round. Actually he kind of gives me a Brett Favre vibe, and if that’s true then he could turn out to be the answer they’ve been searching for in The Factory of Sadness for many years. But for now winning more games than they’ve won in total over the past couple of seasons would be cause for optimism. If that actually happens then it could mean a last place finish for the Bengals, which I’d have to assume would bring an end to Marvin Lewis’ decade & a half long reign as Cincy’s head coach. I’m not at all impressed with quarterback Andy Dalton or any of his weapons, with the exception of receiver AJ Green, who has to be pondering an escape to a contender after eight seasons with a team going nowhere. Their defense might keep Cincinnati competitive in quite a few games, but I think they’ll fall short more often than not. There is a quarterback controversy brewing in Baltimore, with fans & sports media desperately wanting rookie Lamar Jackson (a former Heisman Trophy winner) to prove himself good enough to supplant veteran Joe Flacco. The problem is that neither quarterback has anyone noteworthy to throw to, and the running game is a triple threat of mediocrity. The defense is always stout in Baltimore though, which might be good enough to snag a wild card. The division is my Steelers’ to lose. A year ago I pointed out that “the AFC North isn’t their true competition” and that “the only thing on anyone’s mind is overcoming the Patriots and getting to the Super Bowl”. That is truer than ever after losing home field advantage to the Patriots on one of those stupid “was it a catch or wasn’t it” decisions and then not really showing up against the Jags in the playoffs. Much of the offseason in Pittsburgh has been spent dealing with RB Le’veon Bell’s contract demands, and it’s all but a foregone conclusion that this will be his final season wearing Black & Gold. That combined with Ben Roethlisberger’s advanced age makes 2018 feel like a make or break, all or nothing, all chips in the center of the table season for the Steelers.

 

 

 

South

Houston Texans                  (4-12)         10-6

Jacksonville Jaguars           (10-6)         9-7

Tennessee Titans                 (9-7)           8-8

Indianapolis Colts                 (4-12)         7-9

 

I really like QB Deshaun Watson. He may have been on his way to being named NFL Rookie of the Year until a knee injury took him out midway thru the season. Assuming that he is healthy & ready to go I have to believe that the Texans are the team to beat in the South. Philanthropic defensive tackle JJ Watt also had his 2017 season torpedoed by injury, but he’ll be back on the field as well leading a stout defense. There is a lot to like about Houston. I suppose most “experts” will be picking Jacksonville to win the division again and maybe even make it to the Super Bowl…but I’m not convinced. Obviously their defense is quite impressive, but I am stunned that they stuck with Blake Bortles under center, and the rest of the offense is just as prosaic with the exception of RB Leonard Fournette, who is an injury waiting to happen. The Colts’ entire season rests on the health of QB Andrew Luck, and judging by the past two years that’s not at all comforting. If Luck is back then the question is can he live up to the Peyton Manning comparisons that were prevalent when he first entered the league, and I just don’t see that happening this season. I’ve got to see more from receiver TY Hilton, tight end Jack Doyle, & running back Marlon Mack…not to mention the offensive line, and I’m really not sure what to expect from the defense. First year head coach Frank Reich really has his work cut out for him in Indy. I feel like the Titans will be about the same as last year, perhaps a bit improved defensively. I like QB Marcus Mariota, and Corey Davis should emerge as a legit top flight receiver, but with Houston rebounding from a season that I believe was an anomaly it feels like Tennessee will be on the outside looking in.

 

 

 

East

New England Patriots           (13-3)         11-5

New York Jets                       (5-11)         7-9

Buffalo Bills                            (9-7)           6-10

Miami Dolphins                      (6-10)         5-11

 

Ugh. I hate this part. The Patriots are like a damn cockroach that no one can seem to destroy. Credit where credit is due though…they have been resilient in fending off the competition for over a decade. Whether you attribute that to skill, luck, cheating, or something else is a matter of opinion. At any rate, I won’t predict their demise until I actually see proof of impending doom, and though I’ve been looking & hoping for that for a few years now it hasn’t happened yet. Everybody else in the division is just there to provide the façade of competition. The Jets have yet another new quarterback, although it is possible that veteran journeyman Josh McCown will start ahead of rookie Sam Darnold for a few weeks. Buffalo had a decent season a year ago, but I think they’ll fall back a bit in 2018. AJ McCarron is penciled in to start ahead of first round draft pick Josh Allen under center, and I suppose it is possible that either could emerge as a pleasant surprise. On paper the Bills defense seems like it should be good, so we’ll see. Ryan Tannehill returns from injury to quarterback the Dolphins, while Jay Cutler has re-retired and is doing reality TV. God help us all. There are some decent weapons available to Tannehill, but the fact that Cutler only got Miami six wins a year ago and Tannehill isn’t as good as Cutler doesn’t bode well. The defense has potential, but I don’t think that’ll be enough to win very many games.

 

 

 

West

Los Angeles Chargers            (9-7)           9-7

Oakland Raiders                    (6-10)         8-8

Kansas City Chiefs               (10-6)         7-9

Denver Broncos                     (5-11)         2-14

 

Thanks again to the Raiders for bringing Gruden back to coach, which means that ESPN’s Monday Night Football crew will consist of Joe Tessitore, retired players Booger McFarland & Jason Witten, and Lisa Salters reporting from the field. Sounds good to me. I don’t believe that the Raiders will be back in the playoffs just yet, but they’ll improve slightly and Derek Carr might get back to being the talented quarterback he was a couple of years ago. Amari Cooper and Packers’ refugee Jordy Nelson make for an impressive receiving tandem, and Marshawn Lynch & former Buccaneer Doug Martin should solidify the ground game. The defense seems like it has some questions, which is why I’m hesitant to make Oakland more than a .500 team. I really sense a decline coming from Kansas City. Second year quarterback Patrick Mahomes takes over for the departed Alex Smith, and it might take some time for the young man to figure things out. He’s got some fantastic weapons at his disposal, so perhaps the learning curve won’t be as steep as I’m predicting. The Broncos feel like they’re on the edge of the cliff. Case Keenum is the new quarterback, and we’ll find out fairly fast if he’s the talented guy that won 11 out of 14 games with the Vikings last season or the pedestrian backup everyone always believed him to be. If Denver’s defense gets back to being as great as they were when winning the Super Bowl a few years ago that’ll help a lot, but I feel like they were pretty good last season and the team only won five games. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but something is amiss in the Mile High City, and it might get worse before it gets better.

 

 

Playoff Teams:   Pittsburgh, Houston, New England, L.A. Chargers, Jacksonville, Baltimore

AFC Championship:    Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans

 

 

 

 

 

 

17

 

 

 

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

Top 5 Picks in 2019 Draft:

1       Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2       Denver Broncos

3       Arizona Cardinals

4       Seattle Seahawks

5       Cincinnati Bengals