A couple of weeks ago, while pulling the curtain back on how this project comes together, I alluded to the fact that sometimes I misplace my motivation. Now is one of those times. It is late on Wednesday night and I am powering thru, because we are picking a Thursday night game, and I will be busy all day tomorrow. Perhaps you’ll enjoy my lack of verbosity…but don’t get used to it.
My Season: 17-37
Zach’s Season: 24-30
James Madison (-10.5) at Appalachian State
Once upon a time these teams seemed to be ascending in a parallel manner. However, at the moment, the undefeated Dukes are chasing their third 11+ win season in the past four years and just announced an impending move from the Sun Belt to the American Conference, while the 4-2 Mountaineers are hoping to avoid a third consecutive losing season. This is the Thursday night contest on ESPN, and though I’d love to see a fun, exciting battle, that seems unlikely. Zach concurs.
My Pick: James Madison
Zach’s Pick: James Madison
Houston at Utah (-6.5)
They were my preseason favorites in the Big 12, and neither team has disappointed. The Utes are an unbeaten Top Ten program, while the 6-1 Cougars are lurking closely behind. The kickoff isn’t until after 10pm Saturday night for me, so I might end up missing the second half. At any rate, I won’t predict an outright upset, but I believe it’ll be a bit closer than the oddsmakers think. Zach foresees a high scoring shootout, and likes the visiting underdogs by a field goal.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Houston
Ole Miss at Texas (-3)
The coronation of Arch Manning is officially on hold, as most of the talking heads have turned on him. The Longhorns have lost their last two games, and face the possibility of missing the playoff altogether. Conversely, the 5-1 Rebels are still trying to figure out what the hell happened in The Swamp a few weeks ago, but otherwise they’re in good shape. This would be an emphatic statement win for Ole Miss, and I think they pull it off on the road. Zach has no confidence in Texas, and believes another visiting underdog can overcome the odds.
My Pick: Ole Miss
Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss
San Francisco (-3.5) at Atlanta
Much to my surprise, the unbeaten Niners are running away with their division. Meanwhile, the 2-4 Falcons have looked good at times, but they just can’t get over the hump. Atlanta will probably show flashes and be competitive, but ‘Frisco is likely to win by a comfortable margin. Zach thinks the 49ers might be the best team in the NFL.
My Pick: San Francisco
Zach’s Pick: San Francisco
NY Giants at Houston (-9.5)
JJ McCarthy will be the Giants starting QB, which doesn’t feel like the right decision, but at 3-2-1 I guess head coach John Harbaugh figures “Why not?”. The 2-4 Texans might’ve figured some things out winning their last two games after an 0-4 start. If this game was being played in New Jersey I might give the underdogs a chance, but I feel like the folks in Vegas probably got it right. Zach agrees.
Allow me to give y’all some inside scoop, and forgive me if I’ve covered this territory previously. Here is a basic outline of how the process works. I look at the college & NFL schedules and choose a minimum of five games to pick. This time of year I lean more heavily on college games simply because when their season ends we still have a month of pro games, so I exercise restraint with those right now. It is undeniable that some teams (at both levels) are more interesting than others. You’ll rarely see us opine about a Syracuse/Boston College matchup, or a riveting Sunday afternoon battle between the Jets & Cardinals. That being said, I don’t enjoy being redundant, so we try not to pick games involving the same teams we just debated last week. There’s also the matter of my mood. Seriously. Clearly this is fun or we wouldn’t do it. That being said, sometimes I get busy or distracted with other matters, and occasionally I simply misplace my motivation. Thankfully those aren’t significant issues. I usually have next week’s games chosen by Sunday, find the point spreads on Tuesday, and message Zach with the pertinent information. I then put my thoughts on the page and finish up with Zach’s picks once I receive them. I put everything together on the site with the goal of publishing a final draft by Wednesday night or Thursday morning. This week I looked at the schedule and became intrigued by way too many games, but I’m feeling frisky so we’re loaded. I’ll try to minimize the verbosity.
My Season: 11-26
Zach’s Season: 17-20
Iowa at Washington (-2.5)
The Hawkeyes were undefeated until a beatdown by Ohio St. on their own field. The Huskies have lost two straight and clearly aren’t living up to my lofty expectations. This is a Friday night game on Fox, and I’ll flip over to it when wrasslin’ is over. I haven’t lost faith in Washington completely, and see them snapping their losing skid while defending their turf. Conversely, Zach is all in on Iowa. He appreciates how well they’re coached and their attention to fundamentals.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Iowa
Texas (-9.5) vs. Oklahoma
Typically it is one of the most anticipated rivalry games on the schedule, but it’s hard to get amped up about the 2-2 Sooners taking on the #1 team in the country. It’s a neutral site game in Dallas, which is about the same distance from both campuses. I’d love to see an upset because that’s just how I am when I don’t have any strong feelings about either team, but I just don’t see it happening. Zach believes Longhorns QB Arch Manning is overrated, but fortunately for him Oklahoma isn’t very good.
My Pick: Texas
Zach’s Pick: Texas
UCLA at Oregon (-11.5)
Has anyone noticed that the Bruins are undefeated?? Not only that, but they’re outscoring opponents 45-19. The 3-1 Ducks are a different level though, despite an inexplicable loss at Oklahoma St. If this game was in Pasadena I might give the underdogs a puncher’s chance, but in the cozy confines of Autzen Stadium in Eugene I’d be surprised if the favorites didn’t handle their business no matter who starts at quarterback. Zach thinks the underdogs could make things interesting for awhile, but at the end of the day Oregon simply has too much of everything.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
LSU (-10) at Kentucky
The 4-1 Wildcats have been making some noise, and they have the home field. The Bayou Bengals still have conference title dreams and playoff aspirations despite a heartbreaking loss at Mississippi a few weeks ago. Unfortunately for Kentucky fans, y’all are still a basketball school, and Lane Kiffin is about to make that abundantly clear. Zach sees LSU as a serious championship contender and doesn’t believe Kentucky poses much of a threat, despite their prolific offense.
My Pick: LSU
Zach’s Pick: LSU
Boise State (-7.5) at Fresno State
The Bulldogs are a solid program that has had intermittent great seasons. They just haven’t been able to hold onto a coach for awhile. Matt Entz is Fresno’s seventh head coach since 2011. Meanwhile, Boise might be one of the steadiest, most consistent programs in college football, and they’re aiming for their first Pac 12 title. It’s a 10:30pm Saturday night kickoff, and I sincerely hope I can stay awake to enjoy what might be a really good game. Zach is impressed by Fresno, but feels like Boise is a more complete team.
My Pick: Boise St.
Zach’s Pick: Boise St.
USC (-1.5) at Penn State
The Nittany Lions have dropped two consecutive games, so their playoff dreams are on life support. Conversely, the 5-1 Trojans only loss was to Oregon, and there’s no shame in that. I have seen a couple of mock drafts that had USC’s 6ft.4, 225lb. QB Jayden Maiava land with our Pittsburgh Steelers, so I am intrigued. Having said that, I still like my boy Rocco Becht, and he’ll have over 100k fans in Happy Valley rooting for an upset. Zach doesn’t think Penn St. is good at all, while he believes USC might be on the cusp of returning to elite status.
My Pick: Penn St.
Zach’s Pick: USC
Georgia (-1.5) at Alabama
The Bulldogs haven’t won in Tuscaloosa since 2007. Wrap your brain around that. Both are unbeaten Top 5-ish teams. The loser probably won’t fall out of the Top Ten, but the winner will be in firm control of an SEC title game appearance. I think it’ll be a tight contest, and obviously the oddsmakers see it that way as well. My vibe is that Georgia is marginally more talented and better equipped to handle big moments. Zach believes the game will be decided in the final minute, and gives ‘Bama a slight edge.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Chicago (-2.5) at Green Bay
The 2-2 Packers have been underwhelming, to say the least. The 3-1 Bears are likely to start Tyson Bagent under center while Caleb Williams recovers from a hamstring injury. That, in addition to the home field, would normally make Green Bay clear favorites, but injuries & other issues have caused them to be ineffective. I think it’ll be a low scoring snoozefest, with turnovers and the leg of rookie kicker Trey Smack making the difference. Zach thinks Chicago is a better overall team and foresees them finding a way to pull off a close win.
My Pick: Green Bay
Zach’s Pick: Chicago
San Francisco at Seattle (-2.5)
The NFC West is up for grabs, but Frisco is undefeated and leads the way at the moment. The defending Super Bowl champs are only a game back though, and they enjoy one of the most significant home field advantages in the NFL. I still believe the Rams will ultimately win the division, but these teams would have to be considered serious wildcard contenders. I like QB Sam Darnold to have a huge game and lead his team to an important victory. Zach likes Niners QB Brock Purdy just a little bit more.
My Pick: Seattle
Zach’s Pick: San Francisco
NY Giants at Washington (-3)
I’m not surprised the Giants are leading the division. I am also not surprised that Washington QB Jayden Daniels has missed the last two games with yet another injury. It looks like Daniels is being forced into a return after backup Marcus Mariota also got hurt last weekend. A win by the visitors shouldn’t be considered an upset. Actually, unless Daniels pulls off a Michael Jordan-esque comeback performance, I don’t see how anyone could pick the home team. Zach believes new head coach John Harbaugh has made a huge difference for the G-Men.
My Pick: NY Giants
Zach’s Pick: NY Giants
Baltimore (-2.5) at Atlanta
Don’t overthink it. The Ravens won’t have QB Lamar Jackson, who is dealing with a sprained ankle. The Falcons seem to be on the verge of a breakthrough, and they have the home field on Sunday night after destroying New Orleans on the previous Monday. I believe the home team wins, and it won’t be particularly close. Conversely, Zach likes Baltimore to win a high scoring affair.
My Pick: Atlanta
Zach’s Pick: Baltimore
Buffalo at LA Rams (-2.5)
The 2-2 Rams haven’t been nearly as dominant as expected, and the return of defensive lineman Aaron Donald has fallen flat thus far. Conversely, the 3-1 Bills seemed to be firing on all cylinders until losing to the Patriots in the final two minutes last weekend. This is quite possibly a Super Bowl preview, but both teams still need to work out the kinks. It’s the Monday night game, and should be a dandy. It’s a coin flip for me, and I’ll take the home team to win by a field goal. Zach is choosing the other side of the coin and counting on the visitors to score a mild upset.
So, we both broke even last week, and to be honest the slate of games turned out to be underwhelming at best, soul crushingly fraudulent at worst. As a lifelong sports fan I have to wonder if anything we’ve EVER seen is real. Perhaps the 1919 Black Sox scandal has always been the norm and all of Belichick’s cheating with the Patriots was business as usual. As a longtime pro wrestling enthusiast I’ve received plenty of grief from people who view it as “not a real sport” because it is scripted and the outcomes are predetermined, but maybe the wrestling industry deserves credit for admitting that fact, while other sports are laughing at all the morons who’ve been convinced the games we watch are legitimate competition. Anyway, the entertainment value of college football will improve once all of these cupcake matchups, in which a clearly inferior opponent gladly accepts millions of dollars in exchange for getting their ass whipped, are done and conference play begins. This week though, we have different fish to fry. The NFL enters the chat on Wednesday night (an odd choice 🤔), and of course every team in the league begins with cockeyed optimism. Isn’t it interesting to consider that there are teams that see themselves as legit Super Bowl contenders in the latter days of summer who will end up with Top 5 picks in the NFL Draft in eight months?? All the while, perhaps there are people at the top of the food chain who already know how the season will end.
My Season: 6-9
Zach’s Season: 5-10
Arizona State at Texas A&M (-14)
I ventured out on a limb, ranking the Sun Devils in the preseason despite a bunch of changes, most notably at quarterback. I don’t know how much we can glean from their nine TD destruction of FBS opponent Morgan St. in the season opener. Ditto for the Aggies fifty point victory over an FBS foe. The “12th Man” home field in College Station is legendary, and obviously the oddsmakers are feeling a certain way. However, I don’t shy away from debatable decisions. I don’t know if ASU has the juice for an outright upset, but I believe they’ll make things interesting. Conversely, Zach foresees A&M pulling away in the fourth quarter to secure a comfortable two TD victory.
My Pick: Arizona St.
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Ohio State at Texas (-1.5)
A year ago Texas was the predominant preseason #1, but the Buckeyes defended their home field in a hard fought battle. Now the roles have reversed, with Ohio St. being the top ranked team and the Longhorns enjoying home field advantage. Three players…OSU quarterback Julian Sayin & WR Jeremiah Smith and Texas QB Arch Manning…are serious Heisman contenders who could all end up being first round draft picks next spring. They’ll get their stats, which means the defense that kicks it up a notch and makes a big play or two in the 4th quarter will make the difference. Notorious Buckeye hater Zach obviously disagrees.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Texas
New England at Seattle (-3.5)
It’s a Super Bowl rematch. You’ll recall that the Seahawks defeated the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, led by one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, in the offseason Seattle lost a few starters from that defense, as well as Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The Patriots have had some roster turnover as well, but their offseason was dominated by head coach Mike Vrabel’s…personal drama. I will forever be a Pats hater for a variety of reasons, but just don’t believe Seattle can sustain last year’s success. Very few Super Bowl champions do. Conversely, no matter how one may feel about Vrabel, none of that mishigas will matter on the field. Zach has much more faith in Seattle’s ability to repeat, and believes they’ll win the opener by ten points. It’s an 8pm Wednesday kickoff on NBC, which is cool because Wednesday nights are usually so damn tedious.
My Pick: New England
Zach’s Pick: Seattle
San Francisco at LA Rams (-2.5)
The Rams enter the season as heavy Super Bowl favorites, but they’ll need to prove it on the field. Last season they had a Top Ten defense, then traded for Myles Garrett and convinced Aaron Donald to unretire. Can 38 year old QB Matthew Stafford approach last year’s 46 TDs & 4700 passing yards?? Expectations are high indeed. Meanwhile, the Niners are coming off a 12-5 season and a second round playoff loss to the eventual champion Seahawks. They added veterans Mike Evans & Christian Kirk to the receiving corps, and procured young depth pieces in the draft. ‘Frisco’s issue seems to be remaining healthy, and they’ve already lost receiver Ricky Pearsall to a knee injury. It’s a Thursday night kickoff from Melbourne, Australia, airing on Netflix. I don’t believe the game will be particularly close, and though Zach thinks it’ll be more competitive than I do, he agrees on the outcome.
My Pick: LA Rams
Zach’s Pick: LA Rams
Baltimore (-3.5) at Indianapolis
There’s been a coaching change in Baltimore, with former Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter taking the reins. Let’s not forget that Minter previously served as the Ravens DB coach a few years ago. The roster retained key pieces like QB Lamar Jackson, RB Derrick Henry, and a veteran secondary while adding defensive tackle Trey Hendrickson and tweaking the offensive line a bit. The Colts got off to a hot start a season ago before falling apart down the stretch. Can QB Daniel Jones rebound from an Achilles injury and return to the form he showed in the first half of last season?? Will a defense in transition rise from the bottom third of the league?? I believe both teams will struggle this year, but Indy will prevail this week. Conversely, Zach thinks Jackson will have a huge day against that mediocre Colts defense.
My Pick: Indianapolis
Zach’s Pick: Baltimore
Buffalo (-1.5) at Houston
The Bills fired head coach Sean McDermott after a string of playoff disappointments, despite winning 66% of his games in nine seasons. Time will tell if that was a wise decision. They made some sneaky good roster moves, and as long as their Top Ten defense holds up and QB Josh Allen is behind center there is reason for optimism. Meanwhile, the Texans had the best defense in the league last year but struggled in the first half of the season, ultimately losing in the second round of the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Quarterback CJ Stroud seemed to regress a bit and needs a great rebound season. I believe Buffalo will take a step back this year, while Houston shows incremental improvement. I like the underdogs to defend their home turf. Zach doesn’t see Buffalo’s coaching change as negative and has faith in Allen to keep the train rolling.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Buffalo
Denver at Kansas City (-2.5)
Monday Night Football begins their season with a banger. The Broncos won the AFC West last year and might have played in the Super Bowl if QB Bo Nix hadn’t suffered a broken ankle at the end of a playoff victory. Conversely, the once mighty Chiefs missed the postseason for the first time in a decade, and QB Patrick Mahomes went down with a torn ACL. However, let’s not lose sight of the fact that KC was 6-7 before Mahomes’ injury. I’m no doctor, but have doubts about the prudence of returning from knee surgery in less than nine months. It’s not that I think the home favorites will be a bad team, but I believe the visiting underdogs are clearly better right now. Zach concurs.
During a recent lazy weekend I was scrolling thru the guide on my television, and the sports options available included lacrosse and something called the Grid League, which apparently is “a fast-paced, co-ed professional team sport centered around high-intensity fitness racing”. I have no idea what that means, and don’t care to find out. What it indicated to me is that it’s time for football season. As always, there has been plenty of offseason action…the draft, trades, free agency, the coaching carousel. All of that is great. It gives ESPN things to talk about. However, when it comes to the NFL, there is nothing I enjoy more than tuning into RedZone and enjoying seven solid hours of gridiron action, with my man Scott Hanson directing the chaos. I’ll spare y’all the details, but my summer…actually most of the year thus far…has been a fiasco, yet I am blessed to be easily entertained and have outlets that allow me to escape reality for awhile. That doesn’t mean that one should ignore their problems or not appropriately address issues. By all means…TCB. Occasionally though, it is nice to tune out the noise and enjoy simple pleasures. At any rate, we’ve been doing this little preview for nearly two decades, and I feel compelled to offer a few reminders. Please, don’t wager your rent or gas money based on my thoughts. I am just a somewhat knowledgeable, lifelong fan. I do this for fun and receive no compensation from anyone. I don’t do a bunch of deep research or statistical analysis. My opinions are based mostly on vibes & common sense, but especially when it comes to the NFL those barometers can prove wildly inaccurate. Also, injuries can change everything, and there’s no way to forecast such calamities. That being said, please enjoy my snarky wit & keen insight, and Here We Go Steelers!!
East
Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) 10-7
Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1) 9-8
New York Giants (4-13) 9-8
Washington Redskins (5-12) 8-9
Is it possible that receiver AJ Brown leaving Philly for the New England Patriots is a net gain for the Eagles?? I realize that sounds crazy, but apparently there was drama in the locker room surrounding Brown. If rookie Makai Lemon & former first round pick Devonta Smith rise to the occasion perhaps there won’t be a decline in offensive production. I believe we’ll see a significant improvement from the Cowboys as long as their revamped defense, led by newly acquired defensive tackle Rashan Gary & rookie safety Caleb Downs, upgrades that group’s 30th rank from a season ago. The Giants had their season torpedoed by injuries to receiver Malik Nabers & running back Cam Skattebo, but with both young men back on the field and QB Jaxson Dart having a year of experience under his belt, The G-Men could find themselves in playoff contention under the leadership of new head coach John Harbaugh. That leaves the Commanders. I have really liked QB Jayden Daniels until all of this LSU/jersey # silliness, but the bigger issue is that the former Heisman Trophy winner & Offensive Rookie of the Year only played in seven games last year due to injuries. Perhaps he’ll be dominant…or he might miss half the season again. Even if Daniels stays healthy I’m not that impressed with his supporting cast, with the possible exception of newly acquired WR Stefon Diggs, who’ll be playing for his fifth team in a decade. The receiving tandem of Diggs & Terry McClaurin could vault the team above my low bar. Washington’s defense has potential, but they were at the bottom of the league last year and probably need another season or two of tweaking. It feels like Philly’s division to lose, but keep an eye on the Giants.
West
Los Angeles Rams (12-5) 15-2
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) 10-7
Seattle Seahawks (14-3) 9-8
Arizona Cardinals (3-14) 3-14
Everything seems to be falling into place for the Rams to make a serious Super Bowl push. At age 38 quarterback Matthew Stafford has shown no significant signs of decline. He has a solid offensive line and an impressive group of skill players to score points & control the ball. The defense added defensive end Myles Garrett & cornerback Trent McDuffie to improve a group that was middle-of-the-pack. Winning the division is only the first goal for the Rams. The defending champion Seahawks are likely to experience a notable regression after losing Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker as well as a few pieces from their Top Ten defense. They won’t be terrible, but it’ll be challenging for Seattle to earn a playoff berth. The Niners are a playoff team, but not an elite contender. They made a splash by adding receiver Mike Evans, but he’s 32 years old and it feels like a move that would’ve been more impactful a couple seasons ago. Running back Christian McCaffrey just turned 30, so he might continue to be great…or he might fall off a cliff. Their defense is good but not great, and injuries seem to befall the whole team every year. The Cardinals made some pretty big changes in the offseason, but, with the exception of rookie RB Jeremiyah Love, I don’t know if those changes move the needle all that much. Former Rams offensive coordinator Mike LeFleur is the new head coach. Kyler Murray is out at QB, Jacoby Brissett is in, with rookie Carson Beck the potential future. Love joins a crowded backfield that includes James Conner & Tyler Allgeier. There were a few other losses & additions in free agency, but nothing noteworthy.
South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) 9-8
New Orleans Saints (6-11) 8-9
Carolina Panthers (8-9) 6-11
Atlanta Falcons (8-9) 5-12
As always it’ll be an entertaining division from week to week, but I view Tampa as clear favorites despite the departures of veteran receiver Mike Evans & linebacker Lavonte David. They drafted for defense and added some depth in free agency. The Saints are making strides. I expect good things from second year QB Tyler Shough, and he has solid skill players to whom he can distribute the ball. They had a Top Ten defense last season and will need that to continue. I’m still not a fan of QB Bryce Young, despite him leading the Panthers into the postseason last year. Sneaking into the playoffs at 8-9 because the division is terrible is a dubious accomplishment. They’ve tweaked the roster here & there, especially the offensive line & a mediocre defense, but the folks in Charlotte shouldn’t anticipate much. I feel like the Falcons are taking one step forward & two steps back, although I do like new head coach Kevin Stefanski. The quarterback competition between Michael Penix Jr. & newly acquired Tua Tagovailoa won’t be won with talent, but by whoever can stay off the injured list. Those QBs do have an impressive trio of weapons with RB Bijan Robinson, tight end Kyle Pitts, and receiver Drake London. If Atlanta’s mediocre defense can exceed expectations the team could possibly prove me wrong.
North
Green Bay Packers (9-7-1) 10-7
Chicago Bears (11-6) 9-8
Detroit Lions (9-8) 7-10
Minnesota Vikings (9-8) 6-11
Alright, alright…perhaps I’ve been overly harsh with Bears QB Caleb Williams. There’s just something about the dude I don’t like, but the fact that he led the team to a division title and a complete 180 (5-12 in 2024 to 11-6 last season) can’t be denied. Young receivers Luther Burden & Rome Odunze will have to step up after the trade of DJ Moore to Buffalo. The Bears defense ranked near the bottom of the league a season ago, and I don’t think they did enough to fix it. That makes the Packers slight favorites in the division, although they didn’t dramatically improve their roster in the offseason. The defense was just outside the Top Ten in 2025, and I think it could be slightly better now. I really like QB Jordan Love, and he has an impressive array of weapons, especially if tight end Tucker Kraft returns from an ACL injury he suffered midway thru last season. It seems like just yesterday when we were excited about the Detroit Lions, but they took a huge step backward last year and it feels like the window might’ve already closed. The Vikings are excited to have QB Kyler Murray and have seemingly given up on JJ McCarthy. Murray will need every bit of that 4.4/40 speed to run for his life unless the offensive line has gotten much better. It seems like the offseason was focused on tweaking their Top 5 defense, but I think they may actually regress. I wonder how much receiver Justin Jefferson regrets signing that contract extension a couple years ago??
Firing head coach Sean McDermott was a huge mistake for Buffalo. He was 98-50 in nine seasons, including 12+ wins four times. I understand that everyone had become impatient after seven straight disappointing playoff exits, but the move feels shortsighted. New coach Joe Brady might prove to be a terrific replacement, but I still think the Bills will regress a bit. That means the Patriots are in line for another division title. Adding receiver AJ Brown to a Super Bowl team is almost unfair. The Jets brought back QB Geno Smith, but at age 35, and with 4th round pick Cade Klubnik waiting in the wings, that situation is murky at best. Their defense was in the bottom third of the NFL last year and I don’t foresee much improvement. I am intrigued by new Dolphins’ QB Malik Willis, but unless he’s able to carry the entire offense on his back expectations should be low, and the defense isn’t good enough to win games themselves. New head coach Jeff Hafley used to be the Packers defensive coordinator though, so he might have some tricks up his sleeve.
West
Denver Broncos (14-3) 12-5
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) 10-7
Kansas City Chiefs (6-11) 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders (3-14) 6-11
I undervalued the Broncos a year ago, as they ended up winning the division. If QB Bo Nix hadn’t suffered a broken ankle in a playoff victory over Buffalo I feel like it might’ve been Denver representing the AFC in the Super Bowl instead of New England. If Nix remains healthy & establishes a rapport with newly acquired receiver Jaylen Waddle, and their second ranked defense from last season remains stout, good things could be in store. The Chiefs missed the playoffs in 2025 for the first time in a decade, and that was compounded by the loss of QB Patrick Mahomes with a torn ACL in December. Kansas City lost eight of their final ten games. I’m no medical expert, but the fact that Mahomes is attempting to return just eight months later is dubious at best. Despite the addition of Super Bowl MVP running Kenneth Walker III & a Top Ten defense, a postseason return might prove difficult. That could open the door for the Chargers, who have a Top 5 defense and Justin Herbert, one of the best signal callers in the NFL. They did lose both coordinators though, which is something to keep in mind. Raider Nation seems to be encouraged after drafting QB Fernando Mendoza with the #1 overall pick, but whether that optimism is warranted remains to be seen. Even if Mendoza is the real deal it’ll still take new head coach Klint Kubiak a couple of years to rebuild a broken franchise.
South
Houston Texans (12-5) 11-6
Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) 11-6
Indianapolis Colts (8-9) 9-8
Tennessee Titans (3-14) 6-11
Much like last season, the battle between Houston & Jacksonville for divisional supremacy should be entertaining. The Texans might be even better after fine tuning their offensive line and adding some pieces to the best defense in the league. Meanwhile, the Jags didn’t seem to make any impactful offseason moves. QB Trevor Lawrence enters his sixth NFL season, but after being the first overall pick and drawing comparisons to John Elway & Peyton Manning, it feels like he has underachieved. The Jags’ defense hovered just outside the league’s Top Ten last season, and they’ll need to be atleast as good, if not better. Keep an eye on the Jags/Texans contest in Houston about a week before Christmas…the winner could clinch a division title. As far as the other half of the division, my vibe is that Indy & Tennessee are teams in flux, and we’ll have more of an indication about their future by mid-season. Titans’ QB Cam Ward has potential, and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll (the former Giants head coach) just might be the guy to help him take full advantage of it. Robert Saleh is Tennessee’s new head coach, and this is an opportunity to prove he’s better than a 20-36 record in three+ seasons with the Jets might indicate. The Colts looked pretty good last year until the wheels fell off in the latter half of the season, a skid that had already begun when QB Daniel Jones suffered an Achille’s injury in December. Even if Jones is healthy I don’t think he is the long term answer, and Indy simply MUST get more out of their mediocre defense.
North
Cincinnati Bengals (6-11) 10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) 9-8
Baltimore Ravens (8-9) 7-10
Cleveland Browns (5-12) 6-11
No one is expecting much from my Steelers, especially after the long overdue departure of head coach Mike Tomlin and the uninspiring hire of Mike McCarthy. The one thing that intrigues me is that McCarthy is an offensive minded guy, which might open things up a little as long as 42 year old quarterback Aaron Rodgers still plays at a reasonably high level. Pittsburgh has the highest paid defense in the NFL, but ranked 26th last season. That simply isn’t going to cut it. The Ravens made the stunning move to fire head coach John Harbaugh, so we’ll see how it works out for them. I get it…he’d been there a long time and hadn’t gotten to the Super Bowl since 2012. One could compare the situation in Baltimore to the Steelers & Mike Tomlin as well as Buffalo & Sean McDermott. Successful, but not as successful as they could’ve or should’ve been. Perhaps the Ravens don’t miss a beat with talented QB Lamar Jackson, battering ram RB Derrick Henry, and a defense that added Trey Hendrickson in free agency. However, Jackson & Henry haven’t led them to the Promised Land yet, and their once mighty defense was ranked in the bottom third of the league. Hendrickson is a nice get, but it isn’t enough. Meanwhile, not to beat an annual dead horse, but the Browns are the Browns. They have yet another head coach (their fifth in the last decade). The QB room includes noted massage enthusiast Deshaun Watson, nepo baby Shedeur Sanders, hobbit Dillon Gabriel, and rookie Taylen Green, who is a long term project at best. They had a Top 5 defense but traded Myles Garrett. That leaves the Bengals, who went from Super Bowl contenders to mediocre to terrible in less than five years, thanks in part to injuries suffered by QB Joe Burrow. He must remain healthy for the team to succeed. They renovated the defense to the point that losing Hendrickson may not even matter. Ja’marr Chase & Tee Higgins might be the best receiver tandem in the NFL. Cincy wins the division almost by default, and it’s possible they surprise everyone…including me…by doing so in dominating fashion. I tend to be a bit conservative though.
Happy New Year Manoverse!! I hate to end our year like this, but I’ve been ill all week and don’t feel particularly verbose. Unfortunately, no matter what happens this week, both of us will finish under .500, but kudos to Zach, who will win the season title. As recently as Thanksgiving I held a commanding eight game lead, but the final month of the season was a completely different story. Zach also won the dynasty league we are in, so he’s pretty good at this stuff.
Observations from Last Week:
Drew Brees in the booth > Tom Brady in the booth.
Kyle Whittingham is a solid hire for Michigan. Sexy?? No, but who cares?? I’m told that he was “pushed out” at Utah 🤔. We’ll see who benefits more from these changes.
The Idiot Rooney in charge needs to initiate a thorough Steelers housecleaning. Fire the entire coaching staff. Fire the entire front office. Fire the whole scouting department. Hell, fire all the ushers & food vendors. Wipe the stank of mediocrity completely out. If they go 0-17 for a few years I don’t freakin’ care. Just DO something!!!!!
Absolutely moronic to go for a two point conversion when an extra point will tie the game and send it to OT. I’ll never understand or agree with that logic.
I dozed off and missed the Falcons upset of the Rams on Monday night. Just one thing of many that sucks about being sick 🤒.
My Season: 51-65
Zach’s Season: 54-62
Ohio State (-9.5) vs. Miami (FL)
The Buckeyes have been the best team in college football all season. I truly believe they’d be unbeaten if their top two receivers hadn’t missed the Big Ten title game. Conversely, the ‘Canes participation in the CFP has been controversial, although credit must be given for upsetting Texas A&M in Round 1. I’d be stunned if Ohio St. loses, but will be honest in admitting that the points give me pause. But what the hell…I’m probably going to lose this thing anyway, so go big or go home, right?? Surprisingly, Zach concurs.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Ohio St.
Texas Tech vs. Oregon (-2.5)
One of the battles I constantly fight in doing these picks is my head vs. my heart. What I WANT to happen is occasionally in opposition to what I think will actually happen. The only blemish on Oregon’s record is Indiana, and there’s no shame in that. The Ducks hold victories over Iowa, USC, and Penn St. before their season imploded. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders won the Big 12, which is kind of viewed as the adopted child that its siblings don’t like all that much. However, anyone who actually pays attention understands that the conference plays some damn good football. This game comes down to one thing: can Tech’s stout defense slow Oregon down and give their team a chance in a low scoring slugfest?? I think it is possible. Conversely, Zach believes it’ll be a high scoring affair, with the Ducks getting a close victory.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
Indiana (-7) vs. Alabama
The Hoosiers still have their doubters, and now is their chance to change minds. Is it fair that people question their legitimacy after going undefeated and beating Ohio St. to win the Big Ten Championship?? Probably not, but college football is all about pedigree, legacy, and brand names, and in that regard Indiana has always been perceived as a basketball school. Conversely, there is no one with a more vaunted legacy than The Tide, so much so that they were gifted a berth in the CFP with three losses on their resume. Essentially, it comes down to what one believes in more. Are you beguiled by history and what programs have done in the past, or do you only see what a team has accomplished on the field during the current season?? I think the folks at Indiana understand that this is an opportunity to validate all of their success, regardless of what happens moving forward. Zach respects ‘Bama, but doesn’t think they’ll pull off the upset.
My Pick: Indiana
Zach’s Pick: Indiana
Georgia (-6.5) vs. Ole Miss
It’d be hilarious to see the Rebels win it all just to stick it to former coach Lane Kiffin. Sadly, I don’t believe that’ll happen. It’s one thing to beat up on Tulane in the first round, but the Bulldogs are an entirely different story. When these teams met back in October it was Georgia outscoring their opponent 17-0 in the 4th quarter for the win, but I don’t think they’ll need to do that this time. It might be an entertaining first half, but at the end of the day I foresee a double digit victory for the favorites. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
LA Chargers at Denver (-12.5)
There isn’t a whole lot left to decide about the NFL postseason, including the AFC West title. The Broncos have already won the division, but need a victory to secure the AFC’s first round bye. The Chargers are in the playoffs, but there is still some seeding left to clarify, so a win could be important. Having said that, it feels like the underdogs have already waved a white flag by sitting QB Justin Herbert. So, if we assume Denver will get a fairly easy win, the question is what does that look like?? When these two teams met way back in September it was the Chargers who won with a last second field goal, but this will be a totally different game. Will Denver grab a big lead then call off the dogs?? Might they sit their starting quarterback in the second half?? Could the underdogs score late in garbage time and cover the points?? Sure, let’s go with that. Zach concurs.
My Pick: LA Chargers
Zach’s Pick: LA Chargers
Seattle (-1.5) at San Francisco
The NFC West has NOT been decided yet, and surprisingly the Los Angeles Rams will not factor in the outcome (though they will make the playoffs). When these teams met in Seattle WAY back in the first game of the season it was Frisco who scored a touchdown with a minute & a half remaining to squeeze out a victory, but that was a lifetime ago. Both teams come into the week with a six game win streak. The winner will secure the NFC’s top seed & a first round bye, which obviously makes it a huge game. It’s a prime time Saturday night kickoff, so don’t make any other plans. I am usually rather jaded and don’t expect many “big” games to live up to the hype, but this one has a chance. Pay attention to the oddsmakers…they know it’ll come down to a field goal either way. In that scenario I’m riding with the visiting favorites. Zach, on the other hand, has faith in RB Christian McCaffrey to lead the Niners to victory.
My Pick: Seattle
Zach’s Pick: San Francisco
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
Win & you’re in, lose and the season is over. Maybe. There is a scenario where the Panthers could lose and still win the division. That is predicated on Atlanta defeating New Orleans, which is more than plausible. However, I’m sure the folks in Carolina would prefer to take care of business on Saturday afternoon. I am a bit surprised by the mediocrity of the Bucs, especially since they were a solid playoff team the last couple of years, but losing seven out of the last eight games has torpedoed their season. If they’d won just a couple of those games we wouldn’t be having this conversation. It is possible that whoever wins the division will enter the playoffs with a losing record, which will become fodder for debate on all the sports talk shows. Anyway, these teams just played each other a couple of weeks ago, with the Panthers scoring a late field goal for the win. I think the outcome will be different this time. Zach concurs.
I am skipping a verbose preamble today. We’re doing a healthy amount of bonus picks, so I’d rather focus on that. It’s finally autumn if you’re into that sorta thing, so throw on some flannel, grab a pumpkin flavored beverage, and enjoy two guys who’d be destitute if we did this for money act like we know stuff about football.
My Season: 13-9
Zach’s Season: 6-16
Auburn at Texas A&M (-6.5)
The Tigers are 3-1, hoping to bounce back from a tough loss to Oklahoma, and possibly looking ahead to a winnable game against Georgia next week. The 3-0 Aggies are a Top Ten team coming out of a bye week. The points bother me a little, but I think College Station provides a formidable home field advantage. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Appalachian State at Boise State (-17.5)
Thru the years they’ve both been elite 1-AA/FCS programs, and now they’re both well respected “Group of Five” teams. The 2-1 Broncos will step into a revamped Pac 12 next year, but for now remain focused on winning their seventh Mountain West crown in 15 years, which would be a three-peat. The 2-1 Mountaineers would like to position themselves as contenders in the Sun Belt, a conference they haven’t won since 2019 after capturing four consecutive titles. These teams only met on the gridiron once, and that was more than three decades ago, which is a shame because I feel like it could’ve been a fun rivalry. I’d love to see App. St. be competitive, but on the infamous blue turf against a team with legit NFL talent that seems like a tall order. Conversely, Zach feels like the underdogs have what it takes to hang in there and keep it respectable.
My Pick: Boise St.
Zach’s Pick: Appalachian St.
Alabama at Georgia (-3.5)
It is absolutely hysterical that ESPN passed up an opportunity to bring Gameday to this matchup for the 12th time in 23 years. I guess the 2-1 Tide and the 3-0 Bulldogs just aren’t as elite as they used to be. Georgia had to go to overtime to beat Tennessee last week, while ‘Bama is still trying to figure out how in the hell they lost to Florida St. in the season opener. Alabama leads the all time series 44-26-4 and have won 9 out of the last 10 meetings, but I have to lean toward the home team defending their turf and winning by a touchdown. Zach doesn’t foresee it being that competitive, predicting the Dawgs to win a blowout.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Oregon at Penn State (-3.5)
Okay, so…the winner might end up sharing the Big Ten lead with Southern Cal 👀. Conference realignment is bizarre. The unbeaten Ducks have looked virtually unstoppable, but they are definitely stepping up to better competition than they’ve faced thus far. To be honest I haven’t paid much attention to the undefeated Nittany Lions, but my sources indicate that they’ve steamrolled lesser opponents as well. “Experts” say Penn St. QB Drew Allar will be a first round NFL Draft pick, but then again so were Sam Bradford & Trey Lance. I believe Oregon is simply faster & more athletic overall, and they should win by double digits…something like 28-17. Zach sees Oregon as perhaps the best team in the country and doesn’t have any faith in Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin to win a big game.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
Philadelphia (-3) at Tampa Bay
The defending Super Bowl Champions are 3-0 and haven’t shown any signs of a letdown. Jalen Hurts might be the most versatile QB in the league, but the defense probably needs to kick things up a notch or two. Meanwhile, the 3-0 Bucs could just as easily be 0-3, but they’re a gritty bunch. It’ll be a fun game, yet, at the end of the day, I’d be surprised if Philly doesn’t score a comfortable victory. Zach is all in on Tampa QB Baker Mayfield and thinks he’ll lead his squad to a dramatic triumph.
My Pick: Philadelphia
Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3.5)
I underestimated the 49ers, who have gotten off to a 3-0 start despite being riddled with injuries. It hasn’t been easy, and things could certainly change, but so far so good. The Jags feel like one of those teams that’ll always battle and rarely get embarrassed, but fall just short more often than they find a path to victory. The final score will probably make it look closer than it was in reality, with the home favorites winning by 5-10 points. Zach opines “the Jags are the Jags”. That says it all, doesn’t it??
My Pick: San Francisco
Zach’s Pick: San Francisco
Indianapolis at LA Rams (-3.5)
While I underestimated the Jags, I flat out disrespected the Colts. Who knew that Daniel Jones would look like a legit first round caliber quarterback simply by changing his address?? That being said, the Rams might be the best team Indy has faced, and they’re probably not too happy about the way they lost to Philly, a game they had a real opportunity to win. Los Angeles has a Top 5 rated defense, which I think will rise to the occasion in the 4th quarter. Zach predicts that Daniel Jones will suddenly look like…well, Daniel Jones, and that’s not good news for the visitors.
My Pick: LA Rams
Zach’s Pick: LA Rams
Baltimore (-2.5) at Kansas City
Many “experts” thought this might be an AFC title game preview. It still could be, but right now it’s a battle between two teams in last place in their division. The 1-2 Chiefs look like a subpar cover band version of the team that has played in three consecutive Super Bowls, winning two of them. The 1-2 Ravens could be sitting at 3-0, but the ball just hasn’t bounced their way. I suspect we’ll see both teams rebound and go on a tear later on in the season, but right now they are just trying to survive. I like the home field for KC, and believe we’ll see them begin to figure things out against a tough opponent. Zach urges Chiefs fans not to give up on their team and believes they’ll be in contention when it really matters. He’s a big Andy Reid fan and foresees Travis Kelce finally having a big game.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Kansas City
Green Bay (-6.5) at Dallas
I suppose this is the Micah Parsons Bowl. Jerry Jones is one of the worst owners in professional sports, because how many other team owners are also the general manager?? Trading Parsons was idiotic, but if it had to be done Jones could’ve atleast sent the disgruntled pass rusher to the AFC. At any rate, the 2-1 Packers should be PISSED about last week’s fourth quarter implosion that led to ten unanswered points & a walkoff field goal victory for the Cleveland Browns. The 1-2 Cowboys simply haven’t looked right in any way, and now they’ll be without receiver CeeDee Lamb, who is sidelined with a high ankle sprain. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, but I’m sure league & network suits are regretting that right now. Green Bay will win, and it probably won’t be that close. Zach thinks QB Jordan Love will have a big game and lead his team to a huge win.
Just when I was kinda sorta almost getting amped up for the return of football, news emerged of ESPN gobbling up the NFL Network & RedZone. I was upset last year when RedZone abandoned their “seven hours of commercial free football” tradition, although if I’m being honest the commercials were sprinkled in unobtrusively. However, ESPN (or, if we’re keeping it 100, Disney) tends to ruin perfectly great things with their meddling. I still haven’t forgiven them for canceling Mike & Mike in the Morning eight years ago. Disney…which is also now in bed with WWE…has become a greedy monster gobbling up everything in sight, and the fans pay the price. Anyway, I suppose further changes won’t occur until next season, so we’ll forge ahead as usual for now. As always, I’ll remind you that I really don’t know what the hell I’m talking about sometimes, so please…no wagering.
North
Detroit Lions (15-2) 11-6
Green Bay Packers (11-6) 10-7
Minnesota Vikings (14-3) 9-8
Chicago Bears (5-12) 8-9
I’m so tired of talking heads slobbering all over Bears’ QB Caleb Williams, using words like “generational”. No, he’s not. He’s just another guy. In three years, if I am wrong, I will admit my error and ask for mercy. At this point though, I don’t believe Williams will be much more successful than predecessors like Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, or Jay Cutler. Chicago does have a new head coach though. Former Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is getting his crack at a top job, and if anyone can prove me wrong about Williams it’s probably him. I like Vikings’ QB JJ McCarthy, but he is essentially a rookie after missing all of last season with a knee injury. The Vikes added some pieces on defense & bolstered their offensive line. Having said that, we probably need to show a bit of grace while McCarthy becomes acclimated to the NFL. Despite the presence of elite receiver Justin Jefferson, a solid running back group, and one of the best tight ends in the league in TJ Hockenson, I foresee a significant dropoff from a year ago. The Packers are being overlooked a bit, which might work in their favor. Jordan Love enters his third year as the starting quarterback, but he’s going to need more consistency from a deep & talented group of receivers, and their Top 5 defense has to maintain that level of intensity. Detroit’s defense was ravaged by injuries last year, and former defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has moved on to be the head coach of the NY Jets. How will their offense adjust after the departure of Ben Johnson?? That’ll be the key to the entire season. I expect a small regression, but it’ll be worth it if they have a deeper playoff run.
South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) 9-8
Atlanta Falcons (8-9) 9-8
Carolina Panthers (5-12) 6-11
New Orleans Saints (5–12) 6-11
While I don’t believe Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield is worthy of being discussed alongside the league’s elite signal callers, I do think he has earned a spot on the second tier. A season ago that translated into a division title & a first round postseason exit, which is probably their ceiling once again. All eyes will be on Michael Penix Jr., now entrenched as the Falcons’ quarterback. Of course they also retained Kirk Cousins, whose services weren’t sought by any other team given his robust salary. Tight end Kyle Pitts has got to live up to his potential, and Atlanta’s defense, which ranked in the bottom third of the NFL last season, must kick it up a notch. The Panthers & Saints are spinning their wheels. New Orleans hired Kellen Moore to be their head coach, which may pay dividends in the future, but right now they simply have too many holes on the roster. I have come to the conclusion that the Panthers are football’s version of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They hire the wrong people, make bad decisions, and can’t evaluate talent properly. Their biggest issue is likely ownership, which won’t change until it does.
East
Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) 12-5
Dallas Cowboys (7-10) 10-7
Washington Commanders (12-5) 10-7
New York Giants (3-14) 6-11
Winning back-to-back Super Bowls is rare, but has been done as recently as the year before last. The Eagles have appeared in three Super Bowls since 2017, winning two. There has been some turnover on defense, but getting younger might not be a bad thing. Key free agents departed on both sides of the ball, yet, as long as Jalen Hurts is under center, he has his full complement of receivers, and Saquon Barkley is toting the rock, I see no reason to doubt Philly just yet. Brian Schottenheimer is now the head coach in Dallas, a change I’ve been predicting for a couple of years. Expect the Cowboys to rebound from a disappointing season and challenge Philadelphia for the division crown…assuming sack monster Micah Parsons gets paid. The Commanders will be right there in the mix as well, although QB Jayden Daniels won’t be sneaking up on anyone anymore. Does that mean Washington won’t be successful?? No…but I believe they’ll take a step back for now, especially if issues with receiver Terry McLaurin aren’t resolved satisfactorily. I actually like some of the things the Giants have done, but until Jaxon Dart supplants Russell Wilson behind center and young studs on defense gain experience there won’t be any postseason games at MetLife Stadium.
West
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) 10-7
Arizona Cardinals (8-9) 9-8
San Francisco 49ers (6-11) 9-8
Seattle Seahawks (10-7) 8-9
The Seahawks are almost unrecognizable. There’s a whole new offensive coaching staff, and Sam Darnold replaces Geno Smith at quarterback. Many will view that as an upgrade, but I’m not so sure. Receivers DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett are gone, with former Ram Cooper Kupp stepping in as the new second receiver behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle was a middle-of-the-pack defense last year, but with so many changes no one knows what to expect now. I don’t think the NIners will be as terrible as they were a year ago, but their defense was certainly impacted in free agency. Time will tell if draft picks pan out, and in the meantime alot is riding on the further development of QB Brock Purdy & the always unstable health of RB Christian McCaffrey. I don’t have much more faith in Cards’ QB Kyler Murray than I do Caleb Williams, but if receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. continues his ascent that’ll help. Arizona’s braintrust seemed to focus on a defensive rebuild this offseason, so we’ll see how that works out. I don’t think winning their second consecutive division title will be easy for the Rams, and I’m a little concerned about the health of QB Matthew Stafford, but the defense should be sneaky good enough to narrowly win the division.
My Steelers have been the talk of the offseason. Will they be terrible or will they be mediocre?? I believe that’s called damning with faint praise. Enigmatic Aaron Rodgers will be the quarterback, and he’ll be throwing mostly to DK Metcalf, who I see as an upgrade after George Pickens yapped his way out of town. He’s Jerry Jones’ problem now. Pass rusher TJ Watt got paid, and I have no doubt he’ll earn it. The running game looks different with rookie Kaleb Johnson & Jaylen Warren sharing duties after the departure of former first round bust Najee Harris. For the first time in several years I have good vibes about the offensive line & secondary. Everything seems to be held together by duct tape & prayer in Pittsburgh, which won’t get them to the Super Bowl but also hopefully means I won’t spend the next several months curled up in a dark room muttering to myself, as I assume Browns fans have been doing for decades. First of all, Cleveland’s quarterback room is unintentionally hilarious. Secondly, Myles Garrett is not the best defensive player in the NFL. Look on the bright side though…the Cavaliers are pretty good, and the Guardians ain’t half bad either. The division belongs to Baltimore, who’ve become the AFC’s Dallas Cowboys tribute band. No one doubts they’ll be successful in the regular season, but everyone assumes they’ll screw the pooch in the playoffs. Can the Bengals be a fly in the ointment?? Joe Burrow is a top notch quarterback. He has solid weapons, although if I were the GM I’d be looking for upgrades in the backfield & at tight end in the next draft. However, Cincy’s defense ranked in the bottom third of the league last season, and that was with pass rusher Trey Hendrickson in the lineup. If his holdout continues it’s a huge problem, and even if he plays there are other issues.
South
Houston Texans (10-7) 9-8
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13) 8-9
Indianapolis Colts (8-9) 7-10
Tennessee Titans (3-14) 6-11
Which teams will improve and which teams will regress?? The Texans have a target on their back and tweaked their team just a bit. There are some new coaches on offense and a revamped offensive line. Quarterback CJ Stroud’s QBR dropped from 53.2 during his rookie season to 50.2 last year, while his passer rating dropped from 100.8 to 87. He has to be better. The Colts will choose between QBs Anthony Richardson & Daniel Jones, which is like having drunk munchies at 3am and your best options are the container of Chinese food that’s been in your fridge for a week or risking a DUI to grab some Taco Bell. Jonathan Taylor is only 26 years old & one of the best RBs in football when healthy, and I really like first round draft pick Tyler Warren, who has elite tight end potential. Indy ranked 29th in total defense a season ago, and I don’t know if they did enough to improve significantly. #1 overall pick Cam Ward has an opportunity to be a special QB for the Titans, but it’ll take a couple of years to build a competitive roster around him. The Jags brought in former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen to be their new head coach and drafted unicorn Travis Hunter, who will allegedly play WR & CB. I like receiver Brian Thomas, and there are some dawgs on defense, but everything in Jacksonville is contingent upon QB Trevor Lawrence rebounding from an injury plagued season during which he only played in ten games.
East
Buffalo Bills (13-4) 14-3
Miami Dolphins (8-9) 9-8
New England Patriots (4-13) 7-10
New York Jets (5-12) 7-10
There is no question that the Bills will win the division easily. Their focus is solely on solving recent playoff woes & playing in February. The Dolphins moved some chess pieces around, but I don’t believe their team is any better or worse than last season. QB Tua Tagovailoa only played in 11 games a year ago, and it seems like further concussion issues could seriously jeopardize his career. Patriots QB Drake Maye comes into his second season surrounded by a team that has undergone a significant transformation. Former linebacker & Titans head coach Mike Vrabel now runs the show for the franchise he won three Super Bowls with, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels returns home after realizing he’s not really cut out to be a head coach. Things are looking up in New England, but let’s give them another year before raising expectations. The Jets are the Jets. I know there is some buzz around new quarterback Justin Fields, but I’ve never understood the hype. Former cornerback Aaron Glenn is the Jets’ fifth head coach in the past decade, and unfortunately I don’t think he’ll achieve much more than his last few predecessors.
West
Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) 12-5
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) 10-7
Denver Broncos (10-7) 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders (4-13) 7-10
Have the Chiefs plateaued?? Can they make a fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance?? I don’t believe it’ll be easy, but as long as Andy Reid is coaching and QB Patrick Mahomes remains healthy with no prominent erosion of his skills it’s too soon to dismiss KC. Having said that, I do think Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers will make things interesting. RB Najee Harris was a bust in Pittsburgh, and he’ll probably cede the starting gig to first rounder Omarion Hampton, but together they could be a formidable duo. A couple of receivers really need to step up for QB Justin Herbert, and the 11th ranked defense has to keep improving. A year ago I underestimated the skills of QB Bo Nix, but he showed alot of potential while leading the Broncos to the playoffs. Denver is probably looking at a very similar season in a really competitive division. I really like the Raiders trading for QB Geno Smith, who should be a significant upgrade over the potpourri of mediocrity that held the job the past couple of years. Super Bowl winning head coach Pete Carroll has also come out of retirement to lead the charge, which is oddly encouraging. With the addition of first round RB Ashton Jeanty & continued growth of tight end Brock Bowers there are signs of hope in Vegas, but their middle of the pack defense has to improve or they’ll continue to lose more games than they win.
First of all, F*^K YOU NFL. As silly as it may seem, last weekend, when RedZone host Scott Hanson changed his familiar catchphrase “seven hours of commercial free football” because they’re now running a few commercials during the broadcast, it upset me to the point that I was ready to drop out of every fantasy league I’m in and stop doing these picks in the future. Perhaps I have a screw loose. Or maybe the holiday season, which isn’t as merry & bright in my world as it once was, had me all up in my feelings. Thankfully I chilled out enough that my Steelers getting trucked by the Chiefs on Christmas Day barely raised my blood pressure. I still don’t know how I will proceed with RedZone, which I’ve loved for several years. The NFL has tested my patience for awhile with their “social justice” initiatives and watering down the game under the guise of “safety”, but RedZone felt like the last bastion for pure enjoyment of the sport. Now, a corporation that makes BILLIONS of dollars in profits is tainting that innocence for a few more ad dollars that won’t make or break them. It’s sick. Perhaps they’ll change their mind, but I won’t hold my breath. At any rate, Zach (3-2) bested me (1-4) once again to draw within one game of a tie for the season, which still doesn’t upset me as much as the whole RedZone situation.
My Season: 49-55
Zach’s Season: 48-56
Denver at Cincinnati (-3)
Both teams are still fighting for a playoff berth, but the 7-8 Bengals need some help. Obviously that starts with winning this game. Conversely, the 9-6 Broncos will be in with a victory. I really had both of these teams pegged wrong, believing that Cincinnati would bounce back from last season and be a factor in the AFC North, while Denver would secure a Top 5 draft pick. The opposite has occurred with both teams. Having said that, I think the home team wins on their turf and hangs on to a thread of hope for the postseason. Zach appreciates what the Broncos have accomplished with rookie QB Bo Nix, but feels they are an unfinished product with some work to do. He doesn’t like the Bengals defense at all, but gives the nod to Cincy & QB Joe Burrow in a shootout.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati
Green Bay at Minnesota (-1.5)
It might be the best game of the weekend. Both teams will make the playoffs, but the 13-2 Vikings can still claim a division title and maybe even a first round bye if things go their way. In their previous meeting way back in September Minnesota got a close win on the road, so I expect things to balance out with the 11-4 Packers returning the favor. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Green Bay
Zach’s Pick: Green Bay
Miami (-6.5) at Cleveland
I expected the Dolphins to challenge for a division title, but at 7-8 they’re just fighting to finish with a winning record. No one should be surprised by the futility of the 3-12 Browns, who are even worse than I expected and have dropped off significantly from last year’s mirage of success. The home field doesn’t even matter. It’ll probably be a yawn inducing slugfest, but I believe the visiting favorites will win comfortably. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Miami
Zach’s Pick: Miami
Atlanta at Washington (-4)
Don’t sleep on this game featuring two of the first eight selections in this past spring’s draft (and 2 of the top 4 quarterbacks). Jayden Daniels has been a revelation for the 10-5 Commanders, who are battling the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC’s third wildcard, while Michael Penix Jr. was just inserted into the lineup a week ago to boost the 8-7 Falcons to the NFC South crown, which is the only way Atlanta or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will qualify for the playoffs. Penix might indeed be the answer in Atlanta, but we don’t really have much data yet, whereas I’ve seen enough to know how great Daniels & the Commanders can be. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
Detroit (-3.5) at San Francisco
One team has lived up to the hype, while the other has had their season torpedoed by misfortune. At 13-2 the Lions are safely in the postseason field, but they need to win to secure the division title & a first round bye. The 6-9 Niners have been a huge disappointment and will need to confront some tough issues in the offseason. A few months ago I would’ve assumed this to be one of the marquee Monday night games of the entire season, but now it just feels like an afterthought. The outcome of Green Bay-Minnesota could alter Detroit’s approach to the game, but either way I believe they will prevail. Zach agrees.
Kudos to Zach for the win a week ago after picking Alabama over LSU. I did not see that particular beatdown coming. This week is a bit unusual, as we’re only picking one college game. The schedule just didn’t seem that appealing, which is odd considering those teams are coming down the stretch with conference titles & playoff berths still up for grabs. At any rate, we’ll pick up the slack with NFL matchups that will ultimately make a difference in division races & playoff seeding.
My Season: 35-32
Zach’s Season: 31-36
Tennessee at Georgia (-9.5)
The 8-1 Vols are leading the SEC and have two four game winning streaks this season, separated by one 4th quarter collapse at Arkansas. Meanwhile, the 7-2 Bulldogs, who have won two of the last three national championships, are fighting for their playoff lives. The margin for error is basically nonexistent for both teams, and what surprises me most are the points. Sure, they have the home field…but IF the Bulldogs win it won’t be by more than a touchdown. Conversely, Zach sees Tennessee as fool’s gold, while Georgia will be fighting mad with their backs against the wall. He doesn’t think they’ll lose two in a row.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Green Bay (-6.5) at Chicago
The NFC North, or what ESPN legend Chris Berman used to call the Norris Division, is up for grabs, with 6-3 Green Bay still in the hunt, although ultimately I believe the Detroit Lions Lions will prevail. At 4-5 the Bears seem to be just as bad as last season, with rookie QB Caleb Williams looking like the epic failure I knew he’d be. Don’t be surprised if the home team puts up a spirited fight for three quarters, but at the end of the day the Packers should win comfortably. Zach hasn’t given up on Williams yet, but understands the team overall just isn’t very good.
My Pick: Green Bay
Zach’s Pick: Green Bay
Atlanta at Denver (-2.5)
The 6-4 Falcons lead their division, which might surprise people, although it shouldn’t. I don’t believe they’re ready to pose a serious postseason threat to the better teams in the NFC, but progress is progress. Conversely, the 5-5 Broncos play in the same division as the only unbeaten team in the NFL (as well as back-to-back defending Super Bowl Champions), so they’ll need to be happy with whatever scraps of triumph they can snag here & there. Unfortunately for the home team I don’t think even the much ballyhooed high altitude of Denver will save them, and I don’t know what the hell the oddsmakers were smoking. Zach has a little more faith in the Broncos to remain competitive, but agrees that the visitors will walk away victorious.
My Pick: Atlanta
Zach’s Pick: Atlanta
Seattle at San Francisco (-6.5)
It’s a bit of a shocker that both teams sit behind Arizona in their division, although I expect that’ll change soon enough. The 4-5 Seahawks have got to tighten things up on defense because they won’t defeat many opponents who score 25+ points. The 5-4 Niners are in slightly better shape and can blame alot of their problems on injuries. This feels like a must-win for both teams. Having said that, I will boldly predict that one of them will win the division instead of the Cardinals, and perhaps both end up in the playoffs…even the loser this week. I don’t know who comes out n top, but I believe it’ll be way closer than the “experts” indicate. Zach observes ‘Frisco getting healthy, which spells trouble for their opponents.
My Pick: Seattle
Zach’s Pick: San Francisco
Kansas City at Buffalo (-2.5)
The best game of the week (probably) will be played in the late afternoon window on Sunday, which means I can skip Chris Collinsworth violating my ears Sunday night. The Chiefs are undefeated, with a variety of meaningless opinions being tossed around as to how that has occurred. The Bills are 8-2 and have essentially already won their otherwise putrid division. Look, we already know how this goes…both are playoff locks who are strong Super Bowl favorites no matter what happens this week. What matters is seeding and who will (potentially) host the AFC title game. The outcome may differ in that presumed future contest, but with the home field, and considering the fact that KC will be relying on a backup kicker after Harrison Butker suffered a knee injury, I foresee Buffalo winning. Zach believes Kansas City has been lucky to remain unbeaten, and in a last minute, game winning drive scenario predicts that QB Patrick Mahomes will keep them perfect for the time being.
We kept our head above water doing bonus picks a week ago, with point spreads playing a key role in flipping several outcomes one way or the other. I’m glad not to be a gambler because I can imagine having a half point ruin your day could be rather frustrating. At any rate, I extended my season lead by one game, while Zach is one game closer to getting back to the .500 mark. We are each in the same general ballpark as this identical point a year ago.
My Season: 28-24
Zach’s Season: 24-28
Notre Dame (-12.5) vs. Navy
Don’t look now, but two of the service academy football teams are undefeated (sorry about your damn luck Air Force). Party like it’s 1946!! In the grand scheme of things that probably doesn’t mean much since it is doubtful they’d be considered playoff worthy, but it could make the Army-Navy game more consequential than it’s been in quite some time. We’re several weeks away from that though. Meanwhile, the 6-1 Irish are praying that an inexplicable September loss to Northern Illinois doesn’t torpedo their playoff aspirations. This rivalry dates back to 1927, with Notre Dame winning 80 of the 96 meetings. The Midshipmen last won in 2016. For some strange reason the game is being played at the NFL home of the Jets & Giants in New Jersey, meaning it’ll be the most entertaining contest those fans have seen all year. As much as I’d love to predict an upset I cannot imagine Navy overcoming what I assume is a notable disadvantage in size, speed, and athleticism. I’d love to be wrong. Zach believes Notre Dame being overrated is business as usual, and he thinks Navy can hang with them by running the ball and controlling the clock.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Zach’s Pick: Navy
Kansas at Kansas State (-9.5)
They call it the Sunflower Showdown, with the victor taking possession of the Governor’s Cup. It is actually the 4th longest active rivalry in college football (thanks realignment 🙄), with the Jayhawks leading the overall series despite the fact that the Wildcats have won the last 15 meetings dating back to 2009. State is 6-1 and has the home field, while 2-5 KU has to be disappointed with how things have gone thus far after winning nine games a season ago. I predicted K-St. would compete for the conference title, and they’re on pace to be in that mix. Zach doesn’t feel like it’ll be particularly close.
My Pick: Kansas St.
Zach’s Pick: Kansas St.
Illinois at Oregon (-21.5)
The 6-1 Illini announced their presence with authority last weekend, beating Michigan by two touchdowns. Not to be outdone, the undefeated Ducks sit atop the rankings with victories over Ohio St. and…well, okay, they beat Ohio St. and share the Big Ten lead with Indiana. I’d be surprised if Oregon lost at home, but the points concern me. Is Illinois for real?? They don’t have to win the game to gain that legitimacy, but they do need to be competitive. I don’t feel strongly either way, but I’ll roll the dice on the visitors keeping things respectable. Zach has been impressed by Illinois and agrees it won’t be as easy for Oregon as some might assume.
My Pick: Illinois
Zach’s Pick: Illinois
Chicago (-2.5) at Washington
It’s supposed to be a marquee matchup pitting #1 overall pick Caleb Williams against #2 overall pick Jayden Daniels, but the Commanders’ rookie QB suffered a rib injury last weekend so his status for this game remains a bit murky. Daniels, to the surprise of no one who pays attention, has been the more exciting & impactful signal caller thus far, leading his team to a 5-2 record and the NFC East lead. Williams has the Bears looking much improved at 4-2, though they have the misfortune of playing in the NFL’s most competitive division. I’m not a Vegas insider, but it isn’t difficult to figure out that the points are all about Daniels’ questionable status. If he plays and is unencumbered by the injury Washington is a clear favorite at home, but if backup QB Marcus Mariota is under center then things obviously tilt toward Chicago. Can Jayden Daniels channel 1997 NBA Finals Michael Jordan?? Holy schneikes that’d be freakin’ cool. Zach has always been more complimentary to Williams than I’ve been, but he likes the Commanders to score the slight upset.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
Dallas at San Francisco (-4.5)
The cool thing about this rivalry is that it isn’t completely about nostalgia. Oh sure, those of us old enough to remember legendary names like Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Jimmy Johnson, Emmitt Smith, Brent Jones, and Deion Sanders in their heyday become a bit sentimental about the classic skirmishes of the past, but the matchup always feels just as relevant as it did decades ago. The 3-4, injury plagued Niners have struggled more than anyone could’ve ever anticipated a few months ago but sit just one game out of the division lead. It’s a similar story for the 3-3 Cowboys, who are currently in third place in the NFC East. They are coming out of their bye week though, which probably offsets Frisco’s home field. It’s the Sunday night game on NBC and will likely get good ratings. I am somewhat surprised that Dallas isn’t favored even though they’re on the road, but watching Jerry Jones get ridiculed by the sports media is delightfully hilarious. Zach doesn’t have a positive impression of either team, but he thinks San Francisco sucks less than the Cowboys right now.
