So, we both broke even last week, and to be honest the slate of games turned out to be underwhelming at best, soul crushingly fraudulent at worst. As a lifelong sports fan I have to wonder if anything we’ve EVER seen is real. Perhaps the 1919 Black Sox scandal has always been the norm and all of Belichick’s cheating with the Patriots was business as usual. As a longtime pro wrestling enthusiast I’ve received plenty of grief from people who view it as “not a real sport” because it is scripted and the outcomes are predetermined, but maybe the wrestling industry deserves credit for admitting that fact, while other sports are laughing at all the morons who’ve been convinced the games we watch are legitimate competition. Anyway, the entertainment value of college football will improve once all of these cupcake matchups, in which a clearly inferior opponent gladly accepts millions of dollars in exchange for getting their ass whipped, are done and conference play begins. This week though, we have different fish to fry. The NFL enters the chat on Wednesday night (an odd choice 🤔), and of course every team in the league begins with cockeyed optimism. Isn’t it interesting to consider that there are teams that see themselves as legit Super Bowl contenders in the latter days of summer who will end up with Top 5 picks in the NFL Draft in eight months?? All the while, perhaps there are people at the top of the food chain who already know how the season will end.
My Season: 6-9
Zach’s Season: 5-10
Arizona State at Texas A&M (-14)
I ventured out on a limb, ranking the Sun Devils in the preseason despite a bunch of changes, most notably at quarterback. I don’t know how much we can glean from their nine TD destruction of FBS opponent Morgan St. in the season opener. Ditto for the Aggies fifty point victory over an FBS foe. The “12th Man” home field in College Station is legendary, and obviously the oddsmakers are feeling a certain way. However, I don’t shy away from debatable decisions. I don’t know if ASU has the juice for an outright upset, but I believe they’ll make things interesting. Conversely, Zach foresees A&M pulling away in the fourth quarter to secure a comfortable two TD victory.
My Pick: Arizona St.
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Ohio State at Texas (-1.5)
A year ago Texas was the predominant preseason #1, but the Buckeyes defended their home field in a hard fought battle. Now the roles have reversed, with Ohio St. being the top ranked team and the Longhorns enjoying home field advantage. Three players…OSU quarterback Julian Sayin & WR Jeremiah Smith and Texas QB Arch Manning…are serious Heisman contenders who could all end up being first round draft picks next spring. They’ll get their stats, which means the defense that kicks it up a notch and makes a big play or two in the 4th quarter will make the difference. Notorious Buckeye hater Zach obviously disagrees.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Texas
New England at Seattle (-3.5)
It’s a Super Bowl rematch. You’ll recall that the Seahawks defeated the Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, led by one of the best defenses in the NFL. However, in the offseason Seattle lost a few starters from that defense, as well as Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III and offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. The Patriots have had some roster turnover as well, but their offseason was dominated by head coach Mike Vrabel’s…personal drama. I will forever be a Pats hater for a variety of reasons, but just don’t believe Seattle can sustain last year’s success. Very few Super Bowl champions do. Conversely, no matter how one may feel about Vrabel, none of that mishigas will matter on the field. Zach has much more faith in Seattle’s ability to repeat, and believes they’ll win the opener by ten points. It’s an 8pm Wednesday kickoff on NBC, which is cool because Wednesday nights are usually so damn tedious.
My Pick: New England
Zach’s Pick: Seattle
San Francisco at LA Rams (-2.5)
The Rams enter the season as heavy Super Bowl favorites, but they’ll need to prove it on the field. Last season they had a Top Ten defense, then traded for Myles Garrett and convinced Aaron Donald to unretire. Can 38 year old QB Matthew Stafford approach last year’s 46 TDs & 4700 passing yards?? Expectations are high indeed. Meanwhile, the Niners are coming off a 12-5 season and a second round playoff loss to the eventual champion Seahawks. They added veterans Mike Evans & Christian Kirk to the receiving corps, and procured young depth pieces in the draft. ‘Frisco’s issue seems to be remaining healthy, and they’ve already lost receiver Ricky Pearsall to a knee injury. It’s a Thursday night kickoff from Melbourne, Australia, airing on Netflix. I don’t believe the game will be particularly close, and though Zach thinks it’ll be more competitive than I do, he agrees on the outcome.
My Pick: LA Rams
Zach’s Pick: LA Rams
Baltimore (-3.5) at Indianapolis
There’s been a coaching change in Baltimore, with former Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter taking the reins. Let’s not forget that Minter previously served as the Ravens DB coach a few years ago. The roster retained key pieces like QB Lamar Jackson, RB Derrick Henry, and a veteran secondary while adding defensive tackle Trey Hendrickson and tweaking the offensive line a bit. The Colts got off to a hot start a season ago before falling apart down the stretch. Can QB Daniel Jones rebound from an Achilles injury and return to the form he showed in the first half of last season?? Will a defense in transition rise from the bottom third of the league?? I believe both teams will struggle this year, but Indy will prevail this week. Conversely, Zach thinks Jackson will have a huge day against that mediocre Colts defense.
My Pick: Indianapolis
Zach’s Pick: Baltimore
Buffalo (-1.5) at Houston
The Bills fired head coach Sean McDermott after a string of playoff disappointments, despite winning 66% of his games in nine seasons. Time will tell if that was a wise decision. They made some sneaky good roster moves, and as long as their Top Ten defense holds up and QB Josh Allen is behind center there is reason for optimism. Meanwhile, the Texans had the best defense in the league last year but struggled in the first half of the season, ultimately losing in the second round of the playoffs for the second consecutive year. Quarterback CJ Stroud seemed to regress a bit and needs a great rebound season. I believe Buffalo will take a step back this year, while Houston shows incremental improvement. I like the underdogs to defend their home turf. Zach doesn’t see Buffalo’s coaching change as negative and has faith in Allen to keep the train rolling.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Buffalo
Denver at Kansas City (-2.5)
Monday Night Football begins their season with a banger. The Broncos won the AFC West last year and might have played in the Super Bowl if QB Bo Nix hadn’t suffered a broken ankle at the end of a playoff victory. Conversely, the once mighty Chiefs missed the postseason for the first time in a decade, and QB Patrick Mahomes went down with a torn ACL. However, let’s not lose sight of the fact that KC was 6-7 before Mahomes’ injury. I’m no doctor, but have doubts about the prudence of returning from knee surgery in less than nine months. It’s not that I think the home favorites will be a bad team, but I believe the visiting underdogs are clearly better right now. Zach concurs.
Do y’all remember an episode of Seinfeld when George gets fired from the Yankees?? Since there is a severance package involved he enthusiastically looks at it as an opportunity for a three month vacation, but after a tumble down some stairs leaves him incapacitated the neurotic Costanza laments “This was supposed to be the Summer of George!”. I’ve been feeling that way after encountering some health issues and having two medical procedures in the past few months, which is why I’ve been looking forward to football season. Sitting in front of my 55 inch smart TV and watching wall to wall college football on Saturday & seven hours of NFL Redzone on Sunday is my happy place. I’m not very exciting and don’t lead an…impactful…life, but when one spends enough time dealing with certain circumstances simplicity & small comforts become significant. I have friends & family who, in recent months, have gone to the beach, jetted off to Europe, and taken road trips to some cool places. Conversely, I’ll be happy to spend weekends this fall comfortably ensconced in my humble abode watching countless hours of gridiron action.
25 Tennessee
Last Season: 8-5 (lost Music City Bowl)
Key Games: 9/26 vs. Texas, 10/17 vs. Alabama, 11/21 vs. LSU
The Volunteers QB situation concerns me just a bit, with two freshmen vying to replace former signal caller Joey Aguilar, who is trying to secure a spot on the Jacksonville Jaguars roster. Tennessee also has a new defensive coordinator who has an entirely rebuilt defense via the portal. Perhaps my expectations are too high for a team in the (alleged) toughest conference in the country, but Josh Heupel is a former SEC Coach of the Year, and with all three key games noted above happening in Knoxville I believe atleast one upset and a nine win season are reasonable expectations.
I am much higher on the Sun Devils than most. The Big 12 is looking like a dog fight, so one upset could make a huge difference. State will need to make their case on the road, and they’ll probably be another team using multiple quarterbacks after Sam Leavitt bolted for LSU. The offense has undergone a significant rebuild, so State will be leaning on its defense to win games.
It seems like we’ve been waiting a very long time for the Cornhuskers to reclaim the glory they had back in the day when I was a boy. Unfortunately former Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is a combined 19-19 in his three years at the helm in Lincoln, and this feels like a make or break year for his tenure. Nebraska brings back 69% of their production on both sides of the ball. The question becomes is that a good thing from a team that was 7-6?? How much does stability matter in college football nowadays, and is the number deceiving anyway since Dylan Raiola bolted to be the backup quarterback at Oregon?? I suppose we’ll find out the answers, and I think it is possible that Rhule, with his back against the wall, can pull a couple rabbits out of the hat.
22 Texas A&M
Last Season: 11-2 (lost in first round of playoffs)
A year ago, in his second season in College Station, head coach Mike Elko led the Aggies to double digit wins for the first time since 2012. They return 65% of their production from last season, including QB Marcel Reed. Of course, they also had a program record ten players drafted into the NFL. I think we’ll see a slight regression, and securing a playoff berth will be challenging, but don’t be surprised if A&M sneaks into the tail end of the final rankings.
Head coach Kalen DeBoer enters his third year in Tuscaloosa, and if he can replicate last season’s success it would calm the waters, although we all know the ‘Bama faithful are getting restless since they’ve been without a national title since 2020. I have a feeling they’ll yo-yo between junior QB Austin Mack & freshman Keelon Russell until one of them seizes control of the job. The Tide returns less than 50% of their production from a season ago and lost ten players in the NFL Draft. Having said that, ‘Bama is the horror movie psycho of college football…just when we think they’re dead in the water they rise up. They host Georgia in October, which is huge. Trips to Rocky Top & Death Valley hold the keys for the entire season.
20 Navy
Last Season: 11-2 (won Liberty Bowl)
Key Games: 10/24 vs. North Texas, 10/31 vs. Notre Dame, 12/12 vs. Army
I always have a soft spot for our service academies, not only for what their players become off the field, but also because their games are unique and fun to watch. The Midshipmen have had two consecutive double digit victory seasons under 4th year head coach Brian Newberry, and I’m predicting another one. I don’t think they’ll upset Notre Dame, but keep your eye on the October visit from North Texas that could be significant in determining an AAC champion.
Former head coach Lane Kiffin famously ditched the Rebels before the playoff began a season ago, so this will be Pete Golding’s first full year in charge. I’m sure he is happy to have QB Trinidad Chambliss back under center after a tumultuous offseason of legal battles to secure another year of eligibility for the young man. Junior RB Kewan Lacy also returns, so the offense should be solid. I believe it will be an uphill climb to equal last season, but don’t be surprised if Ole Miss upsets an opponent or two and Chambliss is a serious Heisman contender.
I find ACC football rather prosaic. I don’t know why. However, with Clemson’s era of dominance seemingly over, the conference is atleast more competitive. The Wolfpack have been average at best for quite awhile, with head coach Dave Doeren in that position since 2013 and winning 8 or 9 games eight times. Can they win just one more game?? Can they go on the road and defeat two or three teams that they should theoretically handle easily?? We’ll see.
17 BYU
Last Season: 12-2 (won Pop Tarts Bowl)
Key Games: 10/17 vs. Notre Dame, 10/31 vs. Arizona St., 11/7 @ Utah
QB Bear Bachmeier, in addition to having a cool name, is only a sophomore. The Cougars also added tight end Walker Lyons from USC and 6ft.6 receiver Kyle Kasper from Oregon. An October upset of Notre Dame in Provo would certainly improve their playoff resume, but even without that, being in the thick of the Big 12 title chase and double digit victories seem like attainable goals.
16 Texas Tech
Last Season: 12-2 (lost playoff quarterfinal)
Key Games: 9/18 vs. Houston, 10/17 vs. Arizona St., 11/26 vs. TCU
Contrary to the legal victories that secured the services of Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss for another season, the Red Raiders found themselves on the short end of the stick when it came to the brouhaha surrounding QB Brendan Sorsby, who was supposed to transfer from Cincinnati to Lubbock, but apparently enjoyed gambling on football even more than playing football. At any rate, in addition to the quarterback situation, Tech has to replace almost half their defense that was drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. I don’t believe they’ll win as many games or be in the Big 12 title hunt, but neither do I think Tech will fall off the map.
After securing a playoff berth in 2024 the Mustangs fell off just a bit last season, but still had a nice year that could’ve been even better. They lost two overtime games, including one to eventual playoff runner-up Miami. I don’t think they’ll go into South Bend and take down the Fighting Irish in November, but an early season battle in Tallahassee against the Seminoles feels like a winnable contest that could set a positive tone for the year.
14 Georgia
Last Season: 12-2 (lost playoff quarterfinal)
Key Games: 9/26 vs. Oklahoma, 10/10 @ Alabama, 11/7 @ Ole Miss
A year ago, while ranking the Bulldogs 11th, I said that I had a vibe that they wouldn’t be in the SEC title race. To their credit they proved me wrong, winning the conference championship before losing to Ole Miss in the playoff quarterfinals. However, I’m stubborn, so I’m ranking them even lower this preseason. They return a plethora of starters, including QB Gunner Stockton, center Drew Bobo, and defensive backs KJ Bolden & Ellis Robinson IV, but a closer examination of last season reveals that they won a couple of games that could’ve easily been losses. The ball could bounce the other way in 2026, but even if it does, a ten win season is nothing to be ashamed about.
13 Southern California
Last Season: 9-4 (lost Alamo Bowl)
Key Games: 9/26 vs. Oregon, 10/3 vs. Washington, 10/10 @ Penn St.
The Trojans return 15 starters, including senior QB & possible Heisman candidate Jayden Maiava, who has drawn comparisons to Steelers legend Ben Roethlisberger. Head coach Lincoln Riley enters his fifth year at the helm, with the past three seasons being solid yet unremarkable. They’ll need to approach double digit wins and upset a contender or two if Riley doesn’t want his seat to start getting a bit warm.
12 Indiana
Last Season: 16-0 (won CFP Championship)
Key Games: 10/17 vs. Ohio St., 11/14 vs. USC, 11/21 @ Washington
I understand that the Hoosiers are ranked in the Top 5 of most other polls. I know they are the defending National Champions. To be honest, I’m not even that sold on quarterback Fernando Mendoza as an NFL level talent, and believe it’s not a stretch to think incoming transfer Josh Hoover, a former starter at TCU, could replicate Mendoza’s success in Bloomington. The Hoosiers added additional talent thru the portal and of course retained head coach Curt Cignetti. Having said all of that, when one looks back and realizes that Indiana defeated Oregon (twice), Ohio St., Alabama, and Miami (FL) en route to perfection, it is simply difficult to fathom duplication of that achievement.
11 Boise State
Last Season: 9-5 (lost L.A. Bowl)
Key Games: 9/5 @ Oregon, 10/10 @ Fresno St., 11/14 vs. Oregon St.
The Broncos headline the revived & revamped Pac 12, which lacks the prestige of its former incarnation. However, if Boise wins the conference and gets to ten wins they will be a serious playoff contender, especially if they put up a fight in Eugene against the Ducks to open the season. I don’t expect Boise to win that game, but if they can keep the score within 15-20 points the powers-that-be will take notice.
10 Oregon
Last Season: 13-2 (lost playoff semifinal)
Key Games: 9/26 @ USC, 11/7 @ Ohio St., 11/28 vs. Washington
I’ll never get use to Oregon in the Big Ten. College football is stupid off the field. Anyway, QB Dante Moore decided to return to the Ducks rather than enter the NFL Draft, where he certainly would have been a first round pick. I suppose being throttled by Indiana in the playoff semis left a bad taste in his mouth. But can they even get that far again?? I think Oregon will need to score atleast one big upset on the road to be in the conversation. If they lose all three key games Moore may regret delaying his professional dreams.
The Big 12 is wide open, and I have no idea who may emerge on top. The Cougars return 65% of their production from a squad that won ten games. A key piece of the puzzle is senior QB Conner Weigman, who threw for over 2700 yards with an impressive 147.74 passer rating, added 700 yards on the ground, and had 36 total touchdowns. Houston also added a Top Ten transfer class from the portal. A year ago they were in the thick of the conference title scrum, but a couple of losses doomed their chances. They’ll need to be road warriors this season to flip the script.
This will be QB Arch Manning’s final season in Austin, and it seems like the shine has worn off just a bit. Once upon a time Manning was a presumptive Heisman winner who most assumed would be the #1 overall draft pick, but now some are questioning if the hype was just that. The Longhorns weren’t terrible last year, but a season opening loss at Ohio St. set the wrong tone, and losing at Georgia in November doomed their playoff hopes. They have the Buckeyes at home this time, but will still need to win on the road for things to be better than a season ago.
7 Notre Dame
Last Season: 10-2 (declined bowl invitation)
Key Games: 9/6 vs. Wisconsin, 10/17 @ BYU, 11/7 vs. Miami (FL)
Fool me once, shame on you…fool me twice, shame on me. After ranking The Irish #1 a year ago, they thanked me with back-to-back season opening losses to Miami and Texas A&M. The schedule looks a little different this year because realignment has destroyed traditional rivalries, so I would be shocked if Notre Dame doesn’t sail thru the first half of the schedule, and anything less than ten wins and a playoff berth would be a huge disappointment. Sophomore quarterback CJ Carr is back, while running backs Jeremiyah Love & Jadarian Price are now plying their trade in the NFL. That being said, Notre Dame leads the nation in total returning production at 72%, bringing back 14 starters.
6 LSU
Last Season: 7-6 (lost Texas Bowl)
Key Games: 9/19 @ Ole Miss, 11/7 vs. Alabama, 11/14 vs. Texas
There’s a new sheriff in the bayou, and his name is Lane Kiffin. Former head coach Brian Kelly was 34-14 in just less than four seasons, so Kiffin wasn’t hired to win 9 or 10 games and lead his team to the Citrus Bowl…they are expecting SEC titles & deep playoff runs in Baton Rouge. Kiffin brought in junior QB Sam Leavitt from Arizona St., while LSU is projected to have a Top 5 defense. A mid-September clash at Ole Miss will be hyped by the talking heads for obvious reasons (I’ll be stunned if ESPN’s Gameday isn’t on the scene), but November home games against ‘Bama & Texas will probably decide the conference championship.
The Buckeyes are at the top of most other polls, but I can’t go there after back-to-back losses (in the Big Ten title game & playoff quarterfinals) to end last season. Talent is never a problem in Columbus. Sophomore QB Julian Sayin returns after passing for 3600 yards & 33 touchdowns with a completion rate of 77% (which led the nation). He finished 4th in Heisman Trophy voting. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith fell off a bit last year after a phenomenal freshman season, but that was due to a quad injury that negatively impacted two games in November. There were some huge departures from the defense. Four of the first eleven picks in the NFL Draft were from Ohio St., with three of those being defensive players. Rebuilding that unit is the biggest key to the team’s success.
The Huskies have flown under the radar the last couple of seasons since former head coach Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama after leading Washington to the CFP championship game in 2024. However, coming off a 9-4 finish there is a ton of optimism in Seattle. Washington is another west coast team inexplicably competing in the Big Ten, but I’ll refrain from beating that dead horse. Skill positions took a hit after RB Jonah Coleman & receiver Denzel Boston were drafted into the NFL, but returning QB Demond Williams Jr., who threw for over 3000 yards and scored 31 touchdowns last season, has been compared to Kyler Murray with flashes of Russell Wilson. Defense will be the difference maker, and I think we’ll see the Huskies pull off a couple of big upsets.
3 Utah
Last Season: 11-2 (won Las Vegas Bowl)
Key Games: 10/24 vs. Houston, 11/7 vs. BYU, 11/21 @ TCU
A year ago I overlooked the Utes in the Big 12, but they were in the hunt right to the very end of the season. I expect the conference to be just as competitive this season, if not more so. Head coach Morgan Scalley takes over for Kyle Whittingham, who left for Michigan. However, since Scalley had been the defensive coordinator in Salt Lake City for a decade, I don’t think continuity will be an issue. Senior QB Devon Dampier threw for almost 2500 yards last season, rushed for over 800 yards, and scored 34 touchdowns. Their defense will have to kick it up a notch or two, and Utah needs to defend their home field against some formidable opponents.
2 Penn State
Last Season: 7-6 (won Pinstripe Bowl)
Key Games: 10/10 vs. USC, 10/17 @ Michigan, 11/7 @ Washington
I’m a big fan of my boy Rocco Becht, who will become the Nittany Lions new quarterback after following head coach Matt Campbell from Iowa St. to Happy Valley. There’s no way around it…last season was a disaster for Penn St., so they needed a total reset. Winning the Big Ten is a tall mountain to climb, but I think it’s doable. There are advantages to being disregarded & undervalued, and this is a team that may just take a few opponents by surprise.
We’d been waiting for the once dominant ‘Canes to be a force once again, and last season they made it all the way to the CFP championship game. The ACC might be the most winnable conference in the country, and it’s odd to recall that Miami didn’t even play in the title game last year thanks to close losses to Louisville & SMU. They snuck into the playoff and went on an incredible run, defeating three Top Ten teams before falling to Indiana. Can they do it again?? Miami lost nine players in the NFL Draft, including three first round choices. QB Darian Mensah has transferred to Coral Gables from Duke, and he might be even better than former signal caller Carson Beck. However, the bigger issue is defense, which was Top 5 in the country a season ago. Can they reload?? Will a new look defense be as good as they were last year?? Winning the conference is a priority, in part because it would make the playoff path somewhat less difficult.
It seems that we have arrived at Rivalry Week in college football, atleast the ones left standing after realignment. Most of these games, both college & pro, are happening on Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday, with a couple of huge battles taking center stage on Saturday. I am old enough to remember when only two NFL games…one featuring the Dallas Cowboys and the other with the Detroit Lions…took place on the holiday, but now we’re getting three Thanksgiving pro games and a game on Black Friday, in addition to a half dozen rather entertaining college games. No complaints here. Turkey & stuffing, football, Christmas movies, pie, and a whole lot of football sounds like a great time to me.
Observations from Last Week:
Unsportsmanlike conduct on the college level & roughing the passer in the NFL are two of the most ridiculously applied penalties, and that needs to be addressed in the offseason.
Why is it a Two Minute Warning in the NFL, but the Two Minute Timeout in college?? Is it a proprietary thing, or are college kids deemed too delicate for an ominous warning??
When I was a kid and announcers would mention “field goal range”, I thought that meant that the offense was required to make it to a certain area of the field before they were allowed to attempt a FG. I didn’t realize that…theoretically…a field goal can be tried from anywhere, though obviously it is unwise to do so.
So…JJ McCarthy is a bust. Alrighty then 🤦🏻♂️.
I can’t help but wonder what the Steelers offense might’ve looked like with Jameis Winston playing quarterback.
My Season: 42-35
Zach’s Season: 34-43
Ole Miss (-8.5) at Mississippi State
The conversation surrounding the 122nd Egg Bowl has been dominated by the future of Lane Kiffin, who might be headed for allegedly greener pastures following his sixth season in Oxford. The 10-1 Rebels need help to reach the SEC title game even if they win, but a loss obviously knocks them out. The 5-6 Bulldogs must win to become bowl eligible. Ole Miss leads the series 66-46-6 and have won 4 of the past 5 meetings. I don’t see that changing this year, and though the points do give me pause, I think the favorites win by ten. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Ole Miss
Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss
Iowa (-4.5) at Nebraska
This is a relatively new and decidedly intermittent “rivalry”. The teams have done battle on the gridiron 55 times since 1891, but after Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011 it has become an annual Black Friday tradition. Both teams are 7-4, and though they’re not in the conference championship conversation, they’d love to finish strong and travel to a great bowl location. It feels like a tossup to me, so I’m riding with the Huskers at home to score a mild upset. Conversely, Zach foresees Iowa slowing the tempo & dominating time of possession en route to a victory.
My Pick: Nebraska
Zach’s Pick: Iowa
Utah (-13.5) at Kansas
The 9-2 Utes need ALOT of help to back into the Big 12 title game, which seems unlikely. However, the first order of business is to win. That won’t be easy against the 5-6 Jayhawks, who have shown flashes of potential this season but find themselves in a must win scenario to achieve bowl eligibility. I’m not bold enough to pick an upset outright, but I do believe it’ll be closer than two touchdowns. Zach just thinks Utah is the better team. He predicts Kansas will remain competitive thru the first half before the visitors take over and win comfortably.
My Pick: Kansas
Zach’s Pick: Utah
Georgia (-12.5) vs. Georgia Tech
This is theoretically a neutral site game in Atlanta, although Tech’s campus is literally two miles down the road, whereas Athen, GA (home of the Bulldogs) is about 70 miles away. After getting to 8-0 and looking like a sure thing to play for the ACC title, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of their last three games and find themselves on the outside looking in unless a whole bunch of dominoes fall the right way. Conversely, the 10-1 Bulldogs only need Alabama OR Texas A&M to lose to secure a spot in the SEC Championship, which seems plausible. They call this game “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate”, which might be the dumbest freakin’ rivalry name I’ve ever heard. Anyway, Georgia leads the series 72-41-5 and has won seven consecutive matchups. I don’t think that’ll change this year, and I believe it’ll be a rather decisive victory. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Texas A&M (-2.5) at Texas
Forgive me if I’ve mentioned it in previous years, but I always associate this game with the 1982 Burt Reynolds/Dolly Parton classic The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas, in which the winning team is rewarded with a visit to The Chicken Ranch. In case you’re unfamiliar with the movie, though there are plenty of legs, thighs, and breasts, there are absolutely no chickens in sight. At any rate, the Aggies are undefeated and have probably locked up a spot in the CFP, but they need to win to guarantee an SEC Championship appearance, otherwise there’s a chance they could miss out. The 8-3 Longhorns haven’t been as successful as they’d hoped entering the season, but are still clinging to slim hopes of a CFP bid. The game being played in Austin concerns me just a bit, but I’m pulling for A&M to come out on top in an all time classic. Zach views the Aggies as well coached and likes QB Marcel Reed. He thinks Texas has shown improvement, but it won’t matter this week.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Arizona (-1.5) at Arizona State
The 8-3 Sun Devils still have an opportunity to play for the Big 12 title, but they need a couple other teams to lose. The Wildcats are also 8-3 but aren’t in championship contention. They should receive a fun bowl bid though. It is alternatively called the Duel in the Desert (👍🏻) or the Territorial Cup (👀), and there have been 98 previous meetings dating back to 1899. Arizona leads the series 51-45-1, although State has won six of the last eight games. These two teams feel even enough that the home field plays a role, so I am picking the mild upset. Zach thinks Arizona is the hotter team right now so he’s riding that hot hand.
My Pick: Arizona State
Zach’s Pick: Arizona
Alabama (-6.5) at Auburn
To be honest, I didn’t originally plan for us to pick this many games, and considered skipping the 90th Iron Bowl. However, despite the fact that ‘Bama has won the past five meetings and Auburn isn’t very good, I just couldn’t do it. The 5-6 Tigers have to win to achieve bowl eligibility, while the 9-2 Tide haven’t locked in a playoff berth just yet. The Tide has rolled to an all time series lead of 51-37-1 dating back to 1893. I would LOVE to see an upset, although I’m not dumb enough to put money on it. However, I think it is very possible that we see a close contest decided by a field goal in the final minute. Zach has faith in the visiting favorites to dominate in the 4th quarter when it matters most.
My Pick: Auburn
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Ohio State (-12.5) at Michigan
In my humble opinion, this is THE greatest rivalry…certainly in college football, and perhaps in the entirety of sports. Simply known as The Game, it has been played 120 times since 1897, with Michigan leading the series 62-51-6. Michigan has been victorious the past four years after Ohio St. had won eight consecutive meetings from 2012-19. Unless you’ve been off the grid for awhile you’re aware that the unbeaten Buckeyes have been the #1 team in the country all season. The Wolverines are a rather low key 9-2, with unfortunate losses on the road at Oklahoma & USC eradicating their conference title aspirations. I’d be quite surprised by an Ohio St. loss, but the points scare me, and the status of injured receivers Jeremiah Smith & Carnell Tate remains up in the air. If those dudes play the favorites win comfortably, but if they don’t then the outcome becomes questionable. I will roll the dice on both players being available. Unsurprisingly, Zach is all Blue all the time and has no respect for Ohio St.’s weak schedule.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Michigan
Green Bay at Detroit (-2.5)
Though it might be an NFC title preview, right now it is a battle for the division crown. The Packers sit a half game behind Chicago, while the Lions are a half game behind Green Bay. The Bears are receiving alot of love at the moment, but I still believe these two teams will surpass them. Green Bay won the season opener at Lambeau, but I think we’ll see a different result this time, with the RB tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery helping Detroit grind their way to an important win. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Detroit
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
Kansas City (-3.5) at Dallas
The 6-5 Chiefs saved their season…for the moment…with an overtime win over Indianapolis, but the path doesn’t become easier. The 5-5-1 Cowboys also kept their head above water with a surprising victory over Philadelphia. So, once more unto the breach go two teams that had higher expectations yet find themselves scratching & clawing to avoid irrelevance. I wouldn’t be shocked if both eventually make it to the postseason, but neither will I be surprised if both are sitting at home during the playoffs. This game might be better than sweet potatoes & cranberry sauce, and I believe in KC to continue their climb out of the abyss. Zach, on the other hand, feels like Dallas has the momentum and will continue to improve.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Dallas
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)
Anyone with a brain knew that the Ravens weren’t done, despite beginning the season 1-5. Now, after five straight victories (and because the Steelers are mid at best), Baltimore sits atop the AFC North. Meanwhile, the 3-8 Bengals will have QB Joe Burrow back in the saddle for the first time since he injured his toe way back in September. There’s no way Cincy climbs back into playoff contention, but they will undoubtedly be better with their starting quarterback. This is the nightcap on Thanksgiving, and I’ll probably be watching Christmas movies. I would love to see an upset, but unfortunately that seems unlikely. Zach is a bit more hopeful, as he thinks the Bengals can come out on top in a shootout.
My Pick: Baltimore
Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati
Chicago at Philadelphia (-7)
I have absolutely zero interest in Black Friday shopping, but even if I did I believe the way that whole thing works is the stores open obscenely early, and all the wackos who actually enjoy the insanity are finished and home by noon. So if you are participating you should still be able to catch the 3pm kickoff…if you have Prime Video. Anyway, it’s a great matchup featuring the 8-3 Bears, winners of four in a row, including a gritty skirmish with my offensively challenged Steelers, against the 8-3 Eagles, who still hold an overwhelming division lead despite forgetting to show up during the second half in their recent loss to the Cowboys. I may be proven wrong, but I’m still not sold on the Bears & QB Caleb Williams. Conversely, Philly’s track record speaks for itself, and it’s way too early to disregard their chance to be repeat champions. Zach believes the Bears just might be for real, and he predicts they’ll find a way to win a close one.
I cannot imagine the complexity of putting together the NFL schedule. There are so many moving parts. A multitude of factors affect what we’re seeing on the field, very few of which can be anticipated months earlier by those constructing the lineup. Things are much more complicated than when I was a kid. Back then you had a set of 1pm games on Sunday, followed by the 4pm games, and then a game on Monday night (which began in 1970). The NFL had 28 teams who each played 16 games. Bye weeks weren’t a thing as long as the league had an even number of teams, but became standard in 1990. These days there are 32 teams, not to mention an 18 week schedule during which each team plays 17 games. Thursday games, which had previously been a once a year event on Thanksgiving, became a regular part of the schedule in 2006. Sunday night games began in 1987. International games on Sunday morning have been a growing trend in recent years. Instead of dealing with three broadcast partners…NBC, CBS, & ABC…the NFL now has relationships with CBS, ABC/ESPN, Fox, NBC, Amazon, and its own NFL Network & RedZone, which sometimes gets shafted with eight games in the early window and only three in the late window. I pontificate on all of this as I sit here watching the nondescript 8-2 Patriots take on the hapless 2-7 Jets, knowing full well that if I had anything else intriguing going on in my life I wouldn’t be wasting my time.
Observations from Last Week:
I was right when I said I might not have all the information about BYU/Texas Tech. The oddsmakers clearly knew something most of us didn’t, and we should’ve paid attention.
Fernando Mendoza, Jeremiah Smith, Diego Pavia, and Jeremiyah Love…those should be the Heisman favorites.
Sadly, it feels like we are THIS close to QB sacks being legislated out of the game, with all quarterbacks eventually wearing flags that defenders will have to pull off of them.
The dismissal of Brian Daboll as NY Giants head coach is hardly surprising, yet I can’t help but feel the decision is shortsighted. It’ll be interesting to track Daboll’s career as well as the Giants’ success (or lack thereof) in the next few years.
Aaron Rodgers looked old, slow, and totally befuddled in the Steelers loss on Sunday night.
My Season: 36-28
Zach’s Season: 25-39
Minnesota at Oregon (-23.5)
Okay, so the Ducks are an 8-1 Top Ten team whose only loss came against Indiana, and there’s no shame in that. Conversely, the Gophers are 6-3 but just had to go into overtime to dispatch 3-6 Michigan St. The home team WILL win this game. That being said, the points are a bit much for me. I believe Oregon wins by only three TDs. Zach is a bit hesitant considering the points, but he has decided to roll the dice on the home favorites. This is a rare Friday night treat on Fox, although I will be out on the town and probably won’t get to see the first half.
My Pick: Minnesota
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
Wisconsin at Indiana (-30.5)
Holy schneikes, what a freakin’ victory for the Hoosiers last weekend over Penn St.!! However, as much fun as it was, and as much as we get caught up in the excitement, I can’t overlook the fact that it shouldn’t have been that close. Indiana is undoubtedly the real deal, but forgive me if I can’t jump onboard with a 30+ point spread in favor of a team that just got pushed to the absolute limit by an opponent with a backup QB & an interim head coach. The 3-6 Badgers are a total dumpster fire, and Ohio St. did beat them 34-0 a few weeks ago, but The Vibes are telling me that the home favorites will have just a little bit of a letdown this week. Obviously they’ll still win, but look for something along the lines of 27-7. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Zach’s Pick: Wisconsin
Iowa at Southern California (-6.5)
I still can’t wrap my head around this being a Big Ten conference game 😂. Realignment is so damn stupid. At any rate, the 7-2 Trojans have looked much better thus far after a couple of mediocre seasons. QB Jayden Maiava has an opportunity to be special. Meanwhile, the 6-3 Hawkeyes aren’t bad, but they’ve struggled against elite talent. I hope it’s an entertaining game. I think Iowa will be competitive. However, at the end of the day I think the favorites will defend their home turf in an ultimately anticlimactic game. Zach disagrees. He thinks Iowa can maintain some control with special teams, defense, and field position, predicting that whoever wins will do so by less than six points.
My Pick: USC
Zach’s Pick: Iowa
Texas at Georgia (-6)
I’m sure the TV folks over at ABC were salivating when they first saw this matchup on their schedule, and to be fair it is still a battle of two Top Ten programs in the hunt for an SEC title. Having said that, it is undeniable that other teams have stolen the proverbial thunder to some degree. Even at 7-2 and coming off an unsurprising yet impressive victory over Vanderbilt, this is a must win for the Longhorns. The 8-1 Bulldogs are in a marginally better position, but that September loss to Alabama leaves them no margin for error. This is essentially an elimination game, with the winner still chasing the conference title, while the loser will likely be on the outside looking in when the playoff rolls around. If you’re a conspiracy theorist you could opine that this was the plan all along – Texas has a good but not great season, everyone stops yapping about Arch Manning, the kid returns to school next year instead of going to the NFL, and The Prodigal Nephew fulfills his destiny in 2026. I don’t know if any of that is true, but it’s a cool story, right?? Anyway, I think Georgia is a slightly better team with the home field advantage. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5)
Allow me to reiterate…Bryce Young ain’t it. Occasionally the 5-5 Panthers show signs of being a legit NFL team, but then they prove that any momentary faith their fanbase may have had is misguided. Meanwhile, the 3-6 Falcons are truly perplexing, because Michael Penix Jr. does have all the tools to become a good pro quarterback. Atlanta could just as easily be 6-3, but the ball hasn’t bounced their way despite Penix having receiver Drake London, RB Bijan Robinson, and tight end Kyle Pitts at his disposal. I hope head coach Raheem Morris is renting his house in Atlanta. As far as this game goes, I expect that the home favorites will have just enough to snag a close victory marred by turnovers, penalties, and general embarrassment. Zach thinks the Falcons defense is a difference maker.
My Pick: Atlanta
Zach’s Pick: Atlanta
Houston (-7.5) at Tennessee
No one is catching the Colts in the AFC South, but the winner of this game would certainly remain in the wildcard conversation. The 4-5 Texans just can’t catch a break. If they could ever field a healthy squad of their best players I feel like they might be a legit contender. The Titans have potential, but are probably a few years & atleast one (perhaps two) more coaching changes away from fulfilling it. Can interim head coach Mike McCoy make a case for being hired permanently?? We’ll see. These teams met at the end of September, with Houston winning 26-0. It’ll probably be slightly closer this time, with the same outcome. Zach is going with a surprising upset, but also offers a hot take, that perhaps Cam Ward is neither Tennessee’s quarterback of the future or even destined to be a star QB in the NFL.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Tennessee
Seattle at LA Rams (-3)
Are we overlooking the Rams?? I think perhaps we’ve been guilty of exactly that. The only two blemishes on their record are at Philadelphia and a home loss to San Francisco in overtime. 37 year old QB Matthew Stafford is getting League MVP buzz, which is obviously premature but shouldn’t be totally disregarded. Not to be outdone, the Seahawks are also 7-2, which is remarkable considering the makeover they went thru in the offseason. They lost to ‘Frisco & Tampa Bay by a total of six points. It might be the best game of the weekend, and I simply can’t go against the home favorites. The margin of victory might be less than a touchdown, but a win is a win. Zach believes Seattle is hitting their stride and thinks they’ll have an advantage in a low scoring defensive struggle.
My Pick: LA Rams
Zach’s Pick: Seattle
Dallas (-3.5) at Las Vegas
I really thought QB Geno Smith would be a great fit for the Raiders, but at 2-7 it looks like not only will Vegas be ready for a new signal caller, but they’ll be nicely positioned in the draft to get one. At 35 years of age I don’t know if Smith will have any suitors after this season, unless a team is looking for a veteran backup. Things aren’t any better for the 3-5-1 Cowboys, whose lackluster defense could singlehandedly revive Geno Smith’s season. We all know the biggest problem in Dallas is the old dude sitting up in the luxury box, and that isn’t changing anytime soon. The crowd in Sin City will be ready to rock, and the Monday Night Football crew will present it as a much bigger game than it is. Maybe I’m being guided by my feelings instead of my brain, but I’m hoping for the visitors to suffer a humiliating upset. Zach is making the smart choice, picking Dallas to win a blowout.
Happy Halloween Manoverse!! Okay okay…to be fair, by the time these games kick off we’ll be past Halloween, but right now, in this moment, it is still on the horizon. So what does Fright Night look like at The Bachelor Palace?? Full disclosure, it isn’t much more exciting than any other night. My secure location precludes me from hosting trick or treaters, which is unfortunate because once upon a time I rather enjoyed handing out candy to neighborhood crumb crunchers. I’m not much of a horror movie fan, although I do enjoy John Carpenter’s original 1978 Halloween. I will absolutely be snacking on candy corn (don’t come at me!) while choosing amongst other spooky-esque entertainment like Abbott & Costello Meet Frankenstein, Mel Brooks’ Young Frankenstein, and of course the classic It’s the Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown. I am also planning a reread of Washington Irving’s The Legend of Sleepy Hollow. Then, once I get all of that out of my system, it’ll be back to football. Your mileage may vary, and that’s okay.
Observations from Last Week:
Yes, I gave us both a win for Boise’s 21 point victory over Nevada. That’s just how I roll.
Announcers really can make a difference. I was flipping back & forth between Indiana/UCLA with my favorite duo of Gus Johnson & Joel Klatt on the call, and Kansas/Kansas St. that had Mike Golic Jr. as the color analyst. I adore Golic Sr., but his kid strikes me as kind of a douchenozzle. Any football guy that enthusiastically drops Taylor Swift trivia into a broadcast probably needs to find a new gig.
With all due respect, I always thought it was odd that Brian Kelly would leave Notre Dame for LSU, especially after winning 10+ games in each of his final five seasons in South Bend. The grass usually isn’t greener elsewhere. Perhaps Kelly will end up at Penn State, Florida, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, or Virginia Tech.
RIP Nick Mangold, former NY Jets center. 41 years old. Kidney disease. Damn.
Some lucky coach is going to benefit from the NY Giants core of QB Jaxson Dart, RB Cam Skattebo, and WR Malik Nabors, but due to unfortunate injuries it probably won’t be Brian Daboll.
My Season: 27-24
Zach’s Season: 17-34
Arizona State at Iowa State (-5.5)
My boy Rocco Becht has had a rough go of it lately. After getting out of the gate 5-0 the Cyclones have dropped three straight games. They’re a middle of the pack Big 12 team when I thought they’d be serious contenders for the conference title. The Sun Devils are also 5-3 and have virtually no opportunity to win the conference either. So essentially, these teams are playing for pride and bowl positioning. I’m not going to jump off the Becht Bandwagon, and I think we’ll see his team rebound with a 7-10 point victory. Zach doesn’t view Iowa St. thru my prism. He believes this is a bounce back week for Arizona St.
My Pick: Iowa St.
Zach’s Pick: Arizona St.
Penn State at Ohio State (-20.5)
It felt like a much bigger game a month ago. That was before the Nittany Lions lost four consecutive games, had their starting QB go down with a season ending injury, and fired their head coach amidst that implosion. Meanwhile, the unbeaten Buckeyes haven’t really been challenged by anyone. They’ve only let one opponent even get to double digit points. Perhaps if the game were in Happy Valley I might give the underdogs a puncher’s chance, but the favorites look like a well oiled machine that’ll cruise into the CFP. Zach begrudgingly concedes that Ohio St. has been the best team in the nation. However, he is critical of their fairly weak schedule. He isn’t predicting an upset, but hopes that, somehow some way, it’s a closer game than the oddsmakers think it’ll be.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Penn St.
Arizona (-4.5) at Colorado
Are the folks in Boulder tired of Coach Prime’s BS yet?? Sure they were 9-4 a season ago, but losing a Heisman Trophy winner to the NFL will negatively affect any team. Neon Deion can recruit talent, but can he coach players who don’t happen to be five star prodigies?? The 4-3 Wildcats have shown some improvement but are too inconsistent. I’d definitely take the over because I don’t believe we’ll see stellar defense, and I think the ‘Cats will win by 5-7 points. Zach wonders if Sanders might receive an opportunity elsewhere on the very active coaching carousel despite the fact he is way overrated. He doesn’t believe Colorado will get their ass kicked as bad as they did last week at Utah, but then again Arizona doesn’t need to beat them that bad.
My Pick: Arizona
Zach’s Pick: Arizona
Vanderbilt at Texas (-1.5)
I never thought I’d see the day when this matchup would be so highly anticipated. Indiana is getting alot of attention, and they deserve it, but let’s not overlook what the 7-1 Commodores have accomplished. However, they know that any positive mojo that has been built thus far will disappear in a nanosecond if they’re embarrassed by the Longhorns. While there is no shame in losing to Ohio St., I’m pretty sure the folks in Austin are still scratching their heads in confusion after being defeated in The Swamp by the Florida Gators a few weeks ago. This is one of those head vs. heart situations. I’d love to see Vandy silence their doubters and be validated by a win over a blueblood program, but despite the surprising odds I don’t believe it’ll be that close. Games are won in the trenches, and I think the home team will simply wear down their opponents in the 4th quarter. Zach has faith in Vandy’s defense and thinks Texas has been overrated all season.
My Pick: Texas
Zach’s Pick: Vanderbilt
Kansas City (-1.5) at Buffalo
The Chiefs are back…I guess. After starting the season 2-3 KC has won three in a row. Meanwhile, the 5-2 Bills have lost two of their last three games. Don’t forget, that #1 seed in the conference is extremely important, as the top team receives a first round bye in the playoffs. It’s probably a bit premature to be discussing such things, especially with the Colts, Patriots, and Broncos all looking like serious contenders, but we cannot overlook the pedigree of these two teams. Momentum seems to be on the side of the favorites, but perhaps being underdogs in their own stadium will wake a sleeping giant in Buffalo. Zach loves Andy Reid, but he predicts the Bills will defend their turf in a close game…perhaps even overtime.
Update: I’ve already lost interest in the MLB Playoffs. Perhaps a Tigers or Mariners World Series appearance could pull me back in. In other news, hockey has started, which is even less appealing to me than another Dodgers championship. On the bright side, my six fantasy football teams are a collective 22-7, which is probably as good as things have gone for me in 25 years of playing fantasy sports. I can’t help but brace myself for the moment everything falls apart, which, sadly, is kind of how my life goes. At any rate, let’s make some picks.
Observations from Last Week:
Kudos to the 49ers, who won on Thursday night despite a rash of injuries. Don’t be surprised if Mac Jones gets another opportunity to be a starting QB in the NFL.
Are we still handing QB Arch Manning the Heisman?? Drafting him #1 overall?? How bout Drew Allar?? 😂
Kind of a weird weekend for me. WV played on Friday night (my power went out & I missed most of the 2nd half). Both Marshall & the Steelers had a bye.
“I thought, after scoring, a lot of times it takes a lot of energy. So I always thought I had done enough just by getting to the end zone. There was nothing left to do but to hand the ball to the ref and put six points on the board.” – Barry Sanders
Both of my Super Bowl picks…Buffalo & Philadelphia…lost for the first time, but I remain undeterred. They’ll figure things out by January.
My Season: 21-15
Zach’s Season: 12-24
Ohio State (-13.5) at Illinois
The undefeated Buckeyes remain the #1 team in the land, with no one really posing much of a challenge since Texas on opening weekend. The 5-1 Illini have only a 53 point beatdown at the hands of Iowa St. blemishing their record. It’s a home game for the underdogs, which may give them a puncher’s chance. However, as much as I’d love to see a thrilling nailbiter decided in the waning seconds of the 4th quarter, I don’t believe that’ll happen. Zach’s disdain for Ohio St. is well documented, so his choice isn’t surprising.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Illinois
Alabama (-6.5) at Missouri
The 4-1 Tide seem to have steadied the ship after a season opening loss at Florida St. The undefeated Tigers are flying way under the radar. Some might point to their relatively weak schedule thus far, but wins over Kansas & South Carolina shouldn’t be overlooked. That being said, Missouri has an opportunity to make a statement and secure a signature victory that could define their season. Meanwhile, ‘Bama can’t make us completely forget that some were questioning the future of head coach Kalen DeBoer not that long ago. Alabama has won six consecutive games in this rivalry, dating back to 1978, including a 34-0 shutout last season when Missouri was also a ranked team. I’d love to be wrong, but there’s really no reason to believe in a legit chance for an upset. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Alabama
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Indiana at Oregon (-14)
Credit where it is due…the unbeaten Hoosiers have been impressive, especially the last few weeks in victories over Illinois & Iowa. They are also coming off of a bye, which feels important. However, the 5-0 Ducks have been a buzzsaw. Not only did they go into Happy Valley and take down Penn St. in double OT, but they just had their bye week as well. These should be two healthy, well rested teams at full throttle. I’d be pleasantly surprised by an upset, but don’t think that’ll happen. Can Indiana keep it close though?? If they were at home I might lean in that direction, but in the unfriendly environment of Eugene, OR it feels like a high mountain to climb. Conversely, Zach really likes Indiana and feels like they are atleast talented & well coached enough to remain competitive.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Indiana
Oklahoma vs. Texas (-10.5)
It’s the 121st edition of the Red River Shootout, a rivalry that dates back to 1900. Texas leads the series 64–51–5, with each team trading wins back & forth the last several years. The shine seems to be wearing off Longhorns’ QB Arch Manning, who certainly hasn’t resembled his Uncle Peyton or even Uncle Eli while leading his team to a pedestrian 3-2 record. However, the unbeaten Sooners have quarterback issues of their own, with starter John Mateer having recently had surgery on his throwing hand. The injury came at a good time, as Oklahoma had a bye week then played with their backup QB against an overmatched MAC opponent, but this is different. They’re not defeating Texas without Mateer, and even if he returns there’s no way he’ll be 100%. It’s unfortunate, but sometimes that’s just life. Zach predicts a low scoring, run heavy game, with the underdogs figuring out a way to get it done.
My Pick: Texas
Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma
Detroit at Kansas City (-3)
Some folks were starting to lose faith in the Lions after a season opening loss at Green Bay, but now they are 4-1 and once again perceived as one of the best teams in the NFC. Conversely, the once mighty Chiefs are 2-3 after a Monday night loss at Jacksonville, and everyone is wondering what in the world is going on. No one is going to convince me that the absence of WR Rashee Rice has been THAT impactful, and I won’t even lay too much of the blame at the feet of Taylor Swift, whose new album apparently contains a song about Travis Kelce’s junk. Anyway, this game feels like an important moment. Will Detroit continue their winning ways and put another nail in KC’s coffin, or will Andy Reid remind his team just who in the hell they are?? Has Swift really Yoko Ono-ed her fiancé’s career?? Should Detroit be the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite?? We’ll know more on Sunday night, when I think we’ll see a mild “upset”. But is it really an upset?!?!?? Zach foresees a tight battle, perhaps even overtime. Ultimately he thinks the Lions will find a way to prevail.
I’ve never done a ton of research or crunched a bunch of data for this poll. I am not a sports journalist and I’m not getting paid for my thoughts, but as a football fan it’s a fun little project. If my forecast is off base we get a good laugh, and when I am occasionally accurate with predictions I can bask in the illusion that I know what I’m talking about. Having said that, it has become increasingly difficult to know what to expect from teams unless you are one of those “experts” who has intimate knowledge of a wide array of players that you’ve kept track of since they were initially recruited out of high school. In the past one could look at information like the number of returning starters or the previous season’s stats of a team’s senior QB. Perhaps it wasn’t a top factor, but experience used to atleast be a fairly good indicator for success. Now?? Most teams see their roster almost completely overhauled every year. Dozens of players transfer out, dozens transfer in. College football is a free-for-all, and that’s before we even try to figure out which conferences still exist and what teams play where. You know what though?? Soon enough, on each Saturday during the fall, dozens of stadiums will be filled with thousands of people, while millions vegg out at home glued to their television enjoying the action. Despite the greed, chaos, and collapse of tradition that has engulfed collegiate athletics in the past decade, we still love it. We keep coming back. We’re a captive audience and the powers-that-be know it. Perhaps a good therapist could help, but in lieu of that we’ll just plow forward and enjoy our glorious football weekends. Perhaps not as much as we once did, but still enough to give a damn.
The Sun Devils won the Big 12 a season ago before narrowly losing to Texas in the CFP. Second team All Big 12 QB Sam Leavitt & conference Newcomer of the Year receiver Jordyn Tyson are back, along with a good offensive line and a solid core on defense. Star RB Cam Skattebo has moved on to the NFL, which means potential Top 10 draft pick Leavitt will have to kick it up a notch. Given the tough road schedule I believe it’ll be difficult to match last year’s success.
The War Eagles have suffered thru four consecutive losing seasons and haven’t had double digit victories since 2017. Head coach Hugh Freeze is likely coaching for his job. New QB Jackson Arnold hopes to reenergize his career, which stalled at Oklahoma. I believe Auburn has a chance to score a couple of big upsets, which could get them to eight wins and a spot in the final poll.
23 Michigan
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/6 @ Oklahoma, 10/11 @ USC, 11/29 vs. Ohio St.
A season after winning the National Championship the Wolverines fell to seventh place in the Big Ten and lost to Alabama in a meaningless bowl game. It was head coach Sherrone Moore’s inaugural season, and to his credit he made some changes after a lackluster finish. New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey has held the same position at places like Auburn, UCF, & North Carolina, and he’ll have five star recruit Bryce Underwood as his starting QB. I am more concerned with Michigan’s defense, which lost three key starters in the first couple rounds of the NFL Draft. Moore & defensive coordinator Wink Martindale (who has a Super Bowl ring from his time on the staff of the Baltimore Ravens more than a decade ago) have their work cut out for them competing in one of the two elite conferences.
22 Boise State
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 10/4 @ Notre Dame
The Broncos ended last year being handled by Penn St. in the playoff, but back in September they upset Oregon and concluded the season as Mountain West champions. Can they blow thru the conference again?? Do they have a realistic opportunity to defeat Notre Dame in South Bend?? We’ll see.
21 Southern Methodist
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/6 vs. Baylor, 10/11 vs. Stanford, 11/1 vs. Miami
The Mustangs almost upset Clemson in the ACC title game, which was good enough for an at-large bid to the CFP. Of course Penn St. beat the snot out of them in the first round, causing many to question the validity of their berth. If they can pull off a couple of big upsets at home SMU could find themselves in that mix once again.
The Wildcats stumbled down the stretch last season, losing 3 of their final 4 regular season games before rallying past Rutgers in a bowl game fourth quarter comeback. They must replace running back DJ Giddens, now plying his trade with the Indianapolis Colts, but QB Avery Johnson returns for his junior year. Johnson replaced Will Howard a year ago after he transferred to Ohio St. K-State has won atleast nine games three seasons in a row, but their middle-of-the-pack defense will need to improve significantly if they want to match that this year. We’ll know alot more about their team and the Big 12 in general after Iowa St. & K-State do battle in Ireland during the season’s inaugural weekend.
The Gators had a tough season last year, but finished riding a four game winning streak. Quarterback DJ Lagway was 6-1 as a starter a season ago, which is a valid reason to be optimistic. Head coach Billy Napier enters his 4th season in Gainesville with a .500 record, which isn’t good enough. This feels like a make or break year for him.
18 Nebraska
Last Season: 7-6
Key Games: 9/20 vs. Michigan, 11/1 vs. USC, 11/28 vs. Iowa
The Cornhuskers finished with a positive record last season only after winning the Pinstripe Bowl. I am old enough to remember when Nebraska was in the upper echelon of college football, but they haven’t been relevant for atleast a decade. Matt Rhule is another coach on the hot seat after going 12-13 in his first two seasons. He’s brought in former WVU coach Dana Holgersen to be the offensive coordinator, which might pay immediate dividends with QB Dylan Raiola behind center. New defensive coordinator John Butler was on the staff of the Buffalo Bills the last couple of years, and he’ll need to make sure that unit is atleast as good as they were last season…preferably better.
To the surprise of absolutely no one with a brain the Sooners struggled in their inaugural SEC campaign. A decade from now I believe there will be enough data to definitively conclude that leaving the Big 12 was a terrible mistake for Oklahoma & Texas…but clearly worse for Oklahoma. Head coach Brent Venables is 22-17 is his four years at the helm in Norman, so he’s yet another guy whose seat is probably getting rather warm. Last season he benched starting QB Jackson Arnold (who has since transferred to Auburn) in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who went 1-4 as the starter. Now John Mateer, formerly of Washington St., has headed south alongside offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, so it’s literally a whole new ballgame at OU. Venables made his bones as a defensive coordinator at Clemson, so I think that side of the ball has to win some big games for Oklahoma to be successful.
16 South Carolina
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/20 @ Missouri, 10/11 @ LSU, 10/25 vs. Alabama, 11/29 vs. Clemson
Are my expectations way too high for the Gamecocks?? Probably. The schedule is brutal, and they lost five defensive starters in the NFL Draft. However, I really like QB LaNorris Sellers, who will be in the Heisman conversation before too long. Are a couple of stunning upsets on the horizon?? Don’t be shocked.
Once upon a time USC being a Top Ten championship contender was an annual inevitability, but they’ve only achieved double digit victories thrice in the past decade. Their move to the Big Ten was another huge misstep in the absurdity that has damaged collegiate athletics, but there’s no use crying over spilt milk. Defense will need to dominate, which is asking alot from a unit that ranked near the bottom of the conference a year ago. Still, even one big upset and a slight improvement over last year’s win total could land the Trojans in the final poll.
The Red Raiders are, much of the time, the most overlooked football team in Texas, which is understandable. However, they have had sporadic success and produced a few notable NFL talents, like QB Patrick Mahomes. You may have heard of him. Anyway, I feel like the Big 12 is wide open, just waiting for a team to emerge and become the new standard bearer. Of course the issue is that there are probably a half dozen teams that seem poised to seize that opportunity, making for a very competitive situation.
While the Tigers will have several new skill players on the roster they return a solid offensive line, which is arguably more important. One of their key additions from the portal is 2024 Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Josiah Trotter, formerly of the WVU Mountaineers. If the name sounds familiar it’s because he is the son of former Philadelphia Eagle Jeremiah Trotter and the brother of current Eagle Jeremiah Trotter Jr. It’s a huge loss for West Virginia because I believe Trotter will ball out and help Missouri’s defense rank near the top of the SEC. Missouri kind of snuck up on folks a season ago, but perhaps this year they won’t need to do that.
12 Miami (FL)
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 8/31 vs. Notre Dame, 9/20 vs. Florida, 11/1 @ SMU
The Hurricanes looked like a CFB contender for most of last season until losing 3 out of their last 4 (including the bowl game). They must replace their top four receivers from a year ago, and a new defensive coordinator will change things up a bit. Former starting QB Cam Ward was the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, but head coach Mario Cristobal pulled off the heist of the offseason by grabbing former Georgia QB Carson Beck from the portal. There is no question about talent in Coral Gables, it’s just a matter of developing chemistry amongst all the moving parts.
11 Georgia
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/27 vs. Alabama, 11/1 vs. Florida, 11/15 vs. Texas
You may be surprised to see the Bulldogs this low after they’ve had four consecutive double digit win seasons and won two out of the last four national championships. I just have a vibe…a feeling that the SEC is as competitive as it’s ever been and it is inevitable that a great team will have a slightly down year or two. Thirteen Bulldogs were drafted into the NFL, and QB Carson Beck transferred to Miami (FL). New signal caller Gunner Stockton has seen plenty of game action in the past, but I can’t help but think Georgia faces an uphill climb to compete for another conference title.
10 Clemson
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: 10/4 @ North Carolina, 10/18 vs. SMU, 11/29 @ South Carolina
I am really looking forward to Clemson vs. UNC, which happens one day before my birthday in October. Dabo Swinney vs. Bill Belichick…a total contrast in styles in every conceivable way. Hopefully Dabo opens up a can of whoopass on Ol’ Sourpuss, who’ll need to be consoled by his adolescent concubine. Anyway, we’ve kind of overlooked the Tigers the last few years after they fell off a bit from six consecutive appearances in the four team CFP that resulted in two national championships. In 2024 they were back in the playoff, losing to Texas in Round 1 after winning the ACC title. I expect similar results this year.
9 Alabama
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/27 @ Georgia, 10/18 vs. Tennessee, 10/25 @ South Carolina, 11/8 vs. LSU
Head coach Kalen DeBoer didn’t do too bad in his first year at the helm in Tuscaloosa, but “not too bad” is a stinging rebuke in those parts. Replacing a legend like Nick Saban is a tall order, and it remains to be seen if DeBoer is the long term solution. More than two dozen players departed via the portal, while seven were drafted into the NFL. The schedule is tough, and I’ll be very surprised if the Tide rolls into the SEC title game. Still, it is oddly amusing that a Top Ten finish might be seen as a disappointment.
8 Iowa State
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 8/23 vs. Kansas St., 11/1 vs. Arizona St., 11/29 @ Oklahoma St.
At 6ft.1, 210lbs. Rocco Becht might not have a foolproof future as an NFL quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a hell of a college player. The Cyclones have to replace alot of talent along the offensive line and in the secondary, but I see no reason not to expect double digit victories and perhaps a Big 12 title. We’ll know more right out of the gate, as Iowa St. faces Kansas St. in the only noteworthy game during “Week Zero”.
7 Ohio State
Last Season: 14-2
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Texas, 11/1 vs. Penn St., 11/29 @ Michigan
We’ll know quickly whether or not the defending national champions are up to the task of preserving that title. The Buckeyes had 14 players selected in the NFL Draft, including four in the first round. They’ve had several talented wide receivers thru the years, and sophomore Jeremiah Smith might end up being one of the best. However, when I look at the schedule, the players they lost, and the strength of the Big Ten, I’m not sure Ohio St. can equal last season’s success. As a matter of fact, I am probably overrating them.
One of the most surprising events of the offseason was Vols’ starting QB Nico Iamaleava transferring to UCLA after a disagreement about NIL money. Unfortunately such things are part of our new reality. Anyway, the new QB is Joey Aguilar, who is 24 years old and threw for over 6700 yards & 56 touchdowns in two years at Appalachian St. Tennessee was second in total defense in the SEC a season ago, and if they can maintain that intensity I believe there are some conference powerhouses that feel beatable this year.
5 Penn State
Last Season: 13-3
Key Games: 9/27 vs. Oregon, 11/1 @ Ohio St.
Full disclosure…I do not perceive Drew Allar as a future top tier NFL quarterback. We can revisit that assessment in a few years. Meanwhile, I do believe Allar is a perfectly fine college QB with plenty of experience and two bitter memories to avenge. The Nittany Lions fell short in the Big Ten title game a season ago, then, after receiving an at large bid to the CFP, Allar threw an interception with 30 seconds left in the semifinal game that set up a field goal victory for Notre Dame. Players can either be destroyed by such calamities, or they can grow thru them. I’ll be stunned if Penn St. doesn’t win atleast ten games, with the biggest mountains to climb a revenge game against Oregon in the cozy confines of Happy Valley, and a daunting trip to The Horseshoe against the defending national champions. I don’t even think they need to win both of those games. Win just one and they’ll snag a playoff berth. Of course winning the conference title and receiving a first round bye in the CFP would be the most accommodating path.
4 LSU
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 8/30 @ Clemson, 10/11 vs. South Carolina, 11/8 @ Alabama
My nephew Noah has high hopes for the Bayou Bengals, and I trust his judgment. LSU suffered a brutal three game losing streak late last season that torpedoed all of their hopes. Of course starting out by losing the season opener to a Southern Cal team that’d end up being 7-6 didn’t bode well either. It’s a new day in Baton Rouge though. QB Garrett Nussmeier’s father Doug played the same position for the New Orleans Saints and now serves as their offensive coordinator. Coaches’ kids are just built different, so despite what the sports media will undoubtedly try to sell ad nauseum this autumn, Nussmeier may be the best quarterback in college football and the best pro prospect. LSU lost seven players in the NFL Draft, and their 11th ranked SEC defense needs to improve, but I’ve got a good vibe. The season opener at Clemson is huge, so don’t miss it.
Arch Manning. You’ve probably heard the quarterback’s name mentioned a few thousand times the last couple of years, despite the fact that he hasn’t actually accomplished much. Look, I get it. His grandfather is a quasi-legend. His two uncles are both Super Bowl winning Hall of Famers. The bloodline is epic. But now it’s time to put up or shut up for young Arch. Fortunately he is surrounded by elite talent, despite the Longhorns losing a dozen players in the NFL Draft (it should’ve been 13, but that’s another story). The schedule makers obviously have a sense of humor (or an agenda), because the same Ohio St. Buckeyes that defeated Texas in the CFP semifinals last season will host them in the opener. I do not believe a loss destroys either team, nor do I think a victory preemptively crowns them. However, we can’t deny that it’ll set a tone.
2 Oregon
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 9/27 @ Penn St.
It had to be a crushing blow for the Ducks. In their inaugural Big Ten season they are 13-0 and win the conference title…then get manhandled from the jump by an Ohio St. team they’d beaten a couple of months earlier. I’ll be surprised by anything less than ten wins, with everything riding on a late September visit to Happy Valley. QB Dante Moore leveled up by transferring from UCLA, and he’s just one of many new faces in Eugene. Ten former Ducks went in the NFL Draft, and their was a ton of portal activity, both incoming & outgoing. Like many other programs, it is probably unfair to judge Oregon based on last year because it’s almost a whole new team. That being said, I have faith in head coach Dan Lanning to assemble all the right puzzle pieces and guide them down the right path.
It physically hurts me to do this. I’ve always had a vague disdain for Notre Dame for various reasons and almost always root against them. However, I cannot deny that, despite their stubborn refusal to join a conference that looks much more astute with each passing year and the tediously fawning sports media, the Fighting Irish remain legitimately relevant year after year. Last season they made it all the way to the CFP championship game before a terrible second quarter doomed them to defeat. Not only do I not believe they’ll suffer an inexcusable loss as they did during last year’s regular season (Northern Illinois?? REALLY??), but if Notre Dame gets out of the gate 2-0 then batten down the hatches. Replacing Riley Leonard at QB won’t be easy, but it’s not as if he was Montana or Theismann. RB Jeremiyah Love will be invited to the Heisman ceremony (before losing out to a quarterback). Only six Irish players were selected in the NFL Draft (none of them in the first round), so it feels like there is a real opportunity to be even better than last year. The only question is if they can get over the hump and take that final step to the first Notre Dame championship since 1988. Somehow, in the midst of conference realignment, NIL free agency, ESPN devouring the sports world like Godzilla, and vacuous talking heads fellatiating the SEC and the Big Ten, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have almost become venerable underdogs. How the hell did that happen?!?!??
We’re doing a very quick turnaround because college football’s semifinals begin tonight. I am a little disappointed that so much of the NFL playoff picture was cleared up this past weekend, because I had visions of total chaos that’d push us into considering a few more games. Unfortunately it wasn’t meant to be. The good news is that we both went 4-1, which means that finishing above .500 for the season is within reach. With the college playoff expanding to 12 teams and the way the schedule falls, we will not be picking the semis or the championship game, which is probably for the best. As always I would like to thank my nephew Zach for indulging me with this fun little gig every football season, and give a shout out to anyone who might actually read what is written here. I have not been as productive in 2024 as I could’ve been, and I realize that citizens of The Manoverse who aren’t football fans probably gave up on me months ago. I’ll try to do better in 2025. Happy New Year everyone, and may God bless you as we all get the opportunity to begin again.
My Season: 53-56
Zach’s Season: 52-57
Fiesta Bowl
CFP Quarterfinal
Penn State (-10.5) vs. Boise State
The Nittany Lions easily defeated SMU in the first round, while the Broncos had a bye. That system of seeding & byes seems flawed given the fact that Penn St. is a double digit favorite. There will be much hand wringing & consternation in the offseason by folks who essentially believe that only two conferences and maybe a half dozen other teams really matter, which is just more proof that collegiate athletics is broken. As far as this particular contest goes, despite the fact that I’ve accused Penn St. of being overrated on multiple occasions, and I am almost always rooting for the underdog, the fact is that Penn St. will likely win. The question is, can they bitch slap Boise like a few teams got beat down in Round 1?? Boise St.’s only loss was in September at Oregon by three points, so I have to believe that they can stay within ten points of Penn St. Zach thinks that there is a legit chance that Penn St.’s defense has problems stopping Heisman runner-up RB Ashton Jeanty, and doesn’t have much faith in the Nittany Lions coming thru in big games. He agrees that Boise is unlikely to win, but won’t go away quietly.
My Pick: Boise St.
Zach’s Pick: Boise St.
Peach Bowl
CFP Quarterfinal
Texas (-12.5) vs. Arizona State
It might be the most entertaining game of the entire tournament. Texas handled Clemson in the first round, while Arizona St. had a bye. In three previous Pac 12 seasons the Sun Devils were 14-23. Head coach Kenny Dillingham, in his second season after serving as offensive coordinator at Auburn, Florida St., & Oregon, has led a complete turnaround in the program’s inaugural Big 12 campaign. Look, I know that Texas has two QBs and probably a bunch of other players that’ll play in the NFL soon enough. I understand that the only two losses they suffered in their first year in the SEC were to Georgia, winner of two of the past three national championships. I get it. Have you watched Arizona St. play though?? They bulldozed Iowa St. in the Big 12 title game, and their only two losses were by a combined 18 points. Would I love to see a huge upset?? Damn straight. Do I think it will happen?? I’m not holding my breath. However, I do believe it’ll be a much closer game than the “experts” predict. At the beginning of the playoff Zach predicted Arizona St. could make a run and be a serious title contender, so he’s not moving off that now.
My Pick: Arizona St.
Zach’s Pick: Arizona St.
Rose Bowl
CFP Quarterfinal
Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Oregon
I suppose this should be considered the marquee matchup of the four. Both teams have spent time at #1 this season. The Buckeyes only two losses were to Oregon & arch rival Michigan, and the folks in Columbus were so upset about the latter that some wanted head coach Ryan Day canned. People need to get with the times though. National Championships are no longer mythical. The system is flawed, but there is a system, which means that Ohio St.’s loss to Michigan should be considered less impactful than it might’ve been a decade ago. Sure, they missed out on a conference title and a first round bye, but they are here. They beat the snot out of Tennessee in Round 1 and now everything is in front of them. Meanwhile, in their first Big Ten season the Ducks ran roughshod thru a tough schedule, including a one point October victory over Ohio St., which came down to a field goal in the final two minutes. It is quite instructive that Oregon is considered the underdog. If there is one thing I have tried to learn while doing these picks, it is that oddsmakers know things we don’t, and oftentimes they have an uncanny way of being almost exactly right. So look for the favorites to win by a field goal. Surprisingly, Zach concurs.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Ohio St.
Sugar Bowl
CFP Quarterfinal
Notre Dame vs. Georgia (-1.5)
Has Notre Dame been overrated?? Sure, they’re 12-1, but the most impressive wins on their resume are the season opener at Texas A&M and a home victory over Louisville. Their Round 1 domination of Indiana has been much discussed, and if you believe the Hoosiers didn’t belong in the playoff (I’m looking at you SEC sycophants) then you can’t give much credence to the Irish winning that game. Conversely, even though Georgia hasn’t been as elite as we’ve been used to the past few seasons, no one questions their seat at the table. However, with QB Carson Beck out with an elbow injury, the intrigue for this contest is turned up a notch or two. I assume Georgia would be a much bigger favorite with Beck, but the fact that they’re still favored at all either shows how much respect the Bulldogs have earned thru the years, or casts a shadow on Notre Dame’s contender status. Perhaps both. The game is being played in Atlanta, which is basically a home field for the favorites. I think we’ll see a low scoring defensive struggle, probably decided by a few special teams plays. In that scenario I believe Georgia finds a way to escape with a close win. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Carolina at Atlanta (-7.5)
In my season preview I predicted that winning the NFC South would be a tough grind, because that’s exactly what it has been in recent years. So here we are. The Falcons have to win, and even then may fall short of the postseason. I am a bit surprised that they benched QB Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. A bold move for sure in a tight playoff race, but whether it is wise or not remains to be seen. The Panthers have been as hapless as I knew they would be, but teams with nothing to lose and an opportunity to play spoiler can be dangerous. I don’t believe the outcome is in much doubt, but Carolina will put up a fight. Still, I look for Atlanta to cover…barely. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Atlanta
Zach’s Pick: Atlanta
Kansas City at Denver (-10)
I know why the Broncos are favored, but it’s still a bit surprising. Having already locked up the division title and the AFC’s first round bye, the assumption is that KC will sit most of their starters. Meanwhile, the Broncos not only have the home field, but find themselves in a three team dogfight for a wildcard berth. One team will be super motivated, while the other has much bigger goals in mind. I think Denver will get the job done, but even playing with backups I can’t fathom the Chiefs going down by ten points. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Kansas City
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-13)
The Saints just haven’t been a good team this season and probably need to consider a total rebuild. Conversely, my assessment of Baker Mayfield was inaccurate, to put it kindly. The Bucs aren’t amongst the best in the conference, but they are scrappy and could catch a playoff opponent off guard. They need to win this game to even get there, but damn…the points are a bit much. When these teams met in The Big Easy in mid-October Tampa opened up a can o’ whoopass and won by 24 points, but I think it’ll be more like 10-12 this time. Zach concurs.
My Pick: New Orleans
Zach’s Pick: New Orleans
Minnesota at Detroit (-2.5)
Both teams come into the game 14-2. The winner will be crowned NFC North champs and be the top seed in that conference, earning a first round bye. The loser will drop all the way back to the #5 seed. It’s the final game of the regular season, broadcast on NBC on Sunday night. I suggest muting your television and finding the radio call. IYKYK. When these teams met in October the Lions kicked the game winning field goal with 15 seconds on the clock. Since then Detroit’s defense has been decimated by injuries, to the point that I don’t believe they can still be considered Super Bowl favorites. If I were a die hard Lions fan, head coach Dan Campbell would drive me insane. Call me old fashioned, but while his aggressiveness is entertaining, it isn’t always wise. I think he’ll do something stupid…fake punt, unnecessarily going for a two point conversion, going for it on 4th down once too often…and it’ll cost his team a division title. Vikings QB Sam Darnold gets Zach’s vote for Comeback Player of the Year, and believes the smart choice is to ride with their momentum.
With the dawn of a new era in college football we’ve decided to forego our traditional Bowl-a-Palooza and incorporate the playoff games into our normal routine. Let’s face it…most of the bowl games have been superfluous for awhile now, and with interim coaches & transfer portal madness it has become nearly impossible to predict them with any degree of legit knowledge. By all means, if ESPN is airing the Cereal Bowl featuring East State vs. Big City Tech at 4pm on a Tuesday afternoon please enjoy it. Sometimes those random matchups are rather delightful. For our purposes here though, we’ll stick with games that have some degree of importance. I must reluctantly admit that last week (1-4) was abysmal for me, which means that I have finally fallen below .500 for the season, while Zach (3-2) has closed the gap to within three games. Buckle up…it’s going to be a wild stretch run.
My Season: 48-51
Zach’s Season: 45-54
Indiana at Notre Dame (-7.5)
Somehow the rankings happened to fall into place just right, making this intra-state battle possible. Funny how that worked out. At any rate, opinions vary on the 11-1 Hoosiers, especially after they were beaten by three TDs in Columbus a few weeks ago. Should they be here instead of Alabama?? I believe that results matter, and teams can only play the opponents on their schedule. The Hoosiers did that and only lost once, so I think they earned their spot. Meanwhile, the 11-1 Fighting Irish probably have a nearly guaranteed playoff berth anytime they win 9+ games, despite not being a member of any conference. Look…any football fan with actual insight into the game will admit that if these teams met a hundred times Notre Dame would win 80% of the time. Having said that, my Marshall Thundering Herd traveled to South Bend and upset Notre Dame a couple of years ago, so anything is possible. This is a Friday night kickoff, and I know the nephews & I will be hurrying home after our family Christmas dinner to watch. I’d be pleasantly surprised by an upset, but wouldn’t bet money on that happening. However, I feel like Indiana is being overlooked & disrespected just a bit. They’ll keep it close. Zach, however, points out that Notre Dame just signed head coach Marcus Freeman to a contract extension, and on the field they’ve crushed every opponent since an inexplicable early season loss to Northern Illinois. He sees Indiana as talented & well coached, but doesn’t feel like they have what it takes to keep pace in this game.
My Pick: Indiana
Zach’s Pick: Notre Dame
SMU at Penn State (-8.5)
Much of what I said about the previous matchup applies to this game as well. The 11-2 Mustangs aren’t receiving much love. A year ago they were playing in the AAC, and now they play in the ACC, which is probably the weakest of the Power 4. If they’d been blown out in the conference title game by Clemson it is likely that Alabama would’ve been handed this spot, but SMU played a hell of a 4th quarter and nearly pulled off a big comeback. Conversely, Penn St.’s playoff berth was never in question, despite losing the Big Ten Championship to Oregon. The 11-2 Nittany Lions are probably a little overrated, but they’ve mowed thru most of their schedule with tremendous success, which cannot be denied. Not to be repetitive, but once again…if these teams played one another a hundred times the home favorites would almost certainly win 80% of those games, but anything can happen in this one instance. I think SMU will be more than competitive for three quarters, but end up losing…by a touchdown. Conversely, Zach isn’t sure SMU belongs here and foresees a comfortable win by the home favorites.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: Penn St.
Clemson at Texas (-11.5)
I am somewhat surprised by the points. Sure, the 11-2 Longhorns quickly acclimated to the SEC and were only defeated by Georgia (twice). It is also true that the 10-3 Tigers aren’t as elite as they were while appearing in six consecutive (four team) CFPs and winning national championships in two of those years. However, a double digit spread feels disrespectful. Texas will probably win, but it won’t be by more than ten points. Zach is a big Dabo Swinney fan and agrees that Clemson will be more competitive than the “experts” believe.
My Pick: Clemson
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5)
Are people overlooking this game?? It’s an 8/9 matchup, so by definition it is expected to be the most competitive in the first round. The 10-2 Buckeyes were considered to be amongst the top teams in the country until being upset by Michigan a few weeks ago, and it seems like that forced everyone to view Ohio St. thru a whole new prism. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Volunteers can look back at a mid-October upset of Alabama as a huge reason why they’re here now. However, that’s all they really have to hang their hat on. Otherwise the schedule was rather prosaic. Georgia beat Tennessee by two touchdowns, and I think that’s the level Ohio St. is on. I’d love to be wrong. Rockytop brings alot of energy to the table. At the end of the day though, I believe the home team gets it done by ten points. To my utter shock & amazement Zach agrees that the Buckeyes are likely unhappy about how they’ve been talked about recently and will use that as motivation to win easily.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Ohio St.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Our only NFL game this week is an NFC East battle, although the division title has been pretty much decided. The 12-2 Eagles have won ten straight and will win the division, but they have their eyes on the NFC’s top seed & first round bye. The 9-5 Commanders are in the driver’s seat for a wildcard berth, but are far from a lock. I really like rookie QB Jayden Daniels and can see big things for him in the future if the front office continues to build a great team. However, sometimes one just has to be patient and wait for your turn, and it’s not Washington’s time right now. Philly is playing on a different level, and anything short of the Super Bowl will be a disappointment. RB Saquon Barkley may be the best free agent acquisition of the past decade, recapturing the magic that made him a 2017 Heisman finalist at Penn St. and reinvigorating a career that stalled over six seasons with the NY Giants. When these teams met in Philadelphia last month the Eagles won by 12, and I expect something similar now. Zach concurs.
We’ve reached Conference Championship Week. Typically that would conclude the college portion of our season except for bowl picks, which have traditionally been a separate deal. However, we’re doing things a little differently this year, so stay tuned. We are taking a break from the NFL this week though, but look forward to getting back to it next week with division races and playoff berths up for grabs down the stretch. These conference title games will determine automatic bids for the expanded CFP, as well as seeding & at large bids. I was a bit hesitant to embrace the new format, believing that expansion from four to six teams was the proper course of action. Occasionally I am wrong and willingly admit it, and the level of interest & intrigued the revamped system has introduced is alot of fun. To be honest, many of the bowl games have been irrelevant fluff for years, and the CFP Playoff really does nothing to diminish that any further.
My Season: 44-41
Zach’s Season: 37-48
C-USA Championship
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4)
I haven’t paid much attention to C-USA since my alma mater bolted a few years ago, but I know the 8-4 Hilltoppers are always competitive, although they haven’t played for the title in a few years. I didn’t realize the Gamecocks had a football team or that the school even existed until former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez was hired in 2022. Fun fact: the school is in Alabama, not Florida. Anyway, in only their second season in the conference Jax St. matched their previous 8-4 record but now find themselves in the championship game. It’s a Friday evening kick on the CBS Sports Network, and I won’t be home to watch. I suppose it could be a good game, but I think the visiting underdogs handle business with a solid win. Zach points out that the two teams met just last weekend, with the Hilltoppers coming out on top in a close game. And while it is difficult to beat a team twice in a season, let alone in back-to-back weeks, he feels like WKU can pull it off or atleast cover the points.
My Pick: Western Kentucky
Zach’s Pick: Western Kentucky
AAC Championship
Tulane (-5.5) at Army
It’s about respect for these two teams. The 9-3 Green Wave are seeking their third consecutive 10+ win season, while 10-1 Army would love to remain ranked in the Top 25 to cap off their most successful season since 2018. Will the Black Knights have momentum going into their traditional battle with Navy next week, or will they get caught looking ahead against a worthy opponent?? I don’t like that it’s even a factor, but that’s the way the schedule worked out, and I think the visiting favorites will score a fairly comfortable victory. Zach is looking forward to the contrast in styles…Army’s ball control triple option ground attack vs. Tulane’s up tempo offense that averages 37+ points & over 400 yards per game. He opines that Army might stand a chance if they control the tempo & dominate time of possession, but at the end of the day Tulane probably has too much firepower.
My Pick: Tulane
Zach’s Pick: Tulane
Mountain West Championship
UNLV at Boise State (-4)
The Mountain West gets a prime time Friday night opportunity to show off and they deserve it. UNLV head coach Barry Odom has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the open position at West Virginia, so I’ve been catching up on the 10-2 Runnin’ Rebels. Meanwhile, 11-1 Boise has been part of the college football zeitgeist for a couple of decades now and has the longest current streak of winning seasons dating back to 1997. The winner of this game has a very good chance of getting into the playoff as the highest ranked Group of Five conference champion. When these teams met in Vegas the week before Halloween the Broncos scored a TD in the 4th quarter to get the win, but I expect a different outcome this time, with an upset that’ll shake up the playoff bracket. Zach respects Boise’s big game experience and doesn’t foresee them fumbling such a huge opportunity. He believes RB Ashton Jeanty, a top Heisman candidate, will make a huge difference.
My Pick: UNLV
Zach’s Pick: Boise St.
Sun Belt Championship
Marshall at Louisiana (-5.5)
Speaking of my alma mater…
The Herd snuck into this game with a double OT victory over James Madison. At 9-3 they’ve already had their best season since 2015 and would love to win their first Sun Belt title since joining the conference a couple years ago. There has been some chatter about the future of head coach Charles Huff, but I don’t believe that will have any effect on this game. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Ragin’ Cajuns have dramatically improved after a couple of tough years. They have the home field and are likely the smart pick, but I’m staying home to watch instead of venturing out for some delightful holiday fun, so Marshall better not disappoint me. Zach views it as Marshall’s ground game vs. Louisiana’s passing attack, and is hopping on the upset train.
My Pick: Marshall
Zach’s Pick: Marshall
MAC Championship (Detroit, MI)
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (-2.5)
I don’t pay much attention to the MAC anymore. My fascination with mid week “MACtion” was a passing phase. However, this one might be fun. They call it the Battle of the Bricks, a rivalry that dates back to 1908 between the two oldest universities in the state of Ohio. When the 9-3 Bobcats visited the 8-4 RedHawks in mid October the home team got the ten point victory, and I expect more of the same this time. Zach likes Miami because former Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger is an alum, which is as valid of a reason as any.
My Pick: Miami (OH)
Zach’s Pick: Miami (OH)
ACC Championship (Charlotte, NC)
Clemson vs. Southern Methodist (-2.5)
When I think of SMU I immediately recall the celebrated Pony Express backfield featuring future NFL Hall of Fame running back Eric Dickerson in the early 1980s, and of course the program receiving the “death penalty” in 1987 after repeatedly violating NCAA rules. This has been the team’s most successful season since being revived in 2008, and playing for the ACC title in their very first year in the conference is impressive. Conversely, competing for a conference championship is the norm for Clemson. I suppose SMU could still get an at large playoff spot if they lose, but that seems risky, even after winning 11 games. The situation is more clear for the Tigers…they have to secure the automatic bid. It feels strange that SMU is even in this position, and even weirder that they’re the favorites, but I’m fine with that and enjoy seeing things shaken up a bit. Zach understands that the shine has worn off for many when it comes to Dabo Swinney, but he still believes in the coach with two national championships on his resume and thinks Clemson could make some playoff noise.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
Big Ten Championship (Indianapolis, IN)
Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5)
If you’d have told me a few months ago that neither Ohio St. nor defending national champs Michigan would be in the conference title game I wouldn’t have believed it. Kudos to undefeated Oregon, the #1 team in the country, who sits atop the Big Ten in their inaugural season as a member. The 11-1 Nittany Lions aren’t too shabby either, although I feel like they’re somewhat overrated. Penn St.’s defense will really need to step up for them to have a chance, and I think they’ll keep it close for awhile before the favorites pull away late for a fairly comfortable victory. Zach has no faith in Penn St. in big games and predicts a dominant win for the Ducks.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA)
Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5)
Most of us probably expected this matchup even before the season began. Perhaps some thought Alabama could be in the mix, but there were bound to be bumps in the road there with a new coach. At any rate, even at 10-2 the Bulldogs have been somewhat underwhelming, while the 11-1 Longhorns have been exactly as advertised. Their only loss was to Georgia at home in Austin. This is allegedly a neutral site game, but obviously it’s damn close to home for the underdogs. I expect a thrilling, extremely tight battle. Maybe we’ll even get an overtime or two. Both teams are probably heading to the playoff regardless of the outcome, but the winner will get a first round bye, and I think that’ll be Georgia. Conversely, Zach thinks the Bulldogs will come up short in a high scoring shootout.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Texas
Big 12 Championship (Dallas, TX)
Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-2.5)
The 10-2 Cyclones are having their best season since 2020 when they lost the conference title game to Oklahoma. The 10-2 Sun Devils weren’t even in the Big 12 a year ago, but they’ve found a soft landing after the implosion of the Pac 12, and accomplished a dramatic turnaround after going 3-9 each of the past two seasons. It’s a Noon kick on Fox, and I hope it isn’t overlooked by the masses because it could end up being the best game of the weekend. The winner gets an automatic playoff bid, while the loser will probably be left on the outside looking in, which is unfortunate. I believe the outcome will be decided by turnovers & special teams, with the underdogs ultimately prevailing. Zach, on the other hand, not only predicts a dramatic, last minute victory for the Sun Devils, but believes they can mow thru the playoff and win the National Championship. A hot take indeed.
The Manofesto 