American Athletic Conference

2026 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

Do y’all remember an episode of Seinfeld when George gets fired from the Yankees?? Since there is a severance package involved he enthusiastically looks at it as an opportunity for a three month vacation, but after a tumble down some stairs leaves him incapacitated the neurotic Costanza laments “This was supposed to be the Summer of George!”. I’ve been feeling that way after encountering some health issues and having two medical procedures in the past few months, which is why I’ve been looking forward to football season. Sitting in front of my 55 inch smart TV and watching wall to wall college football on Saturday & seven hours of NFL Redzone on Sunday is my happy place. I’m not very exciting and don’t lead an…impactful…life, but when one spends enough time dealing with certain circumstances simplicity & small comforts become significant. I have friends & family who, in recent months, have gone to the beach, jetted off to Europe, and taken road trips to some cool places. Conversely, I’ll be happy to spend weekends this fall comfortably ensconced in my humble abode watching countless hours of gridiron action.

25 Tennessee

Last Season: 8-5 (lost Music City Bowl)

Key Games: 9/26 vs. Texas, 10/17 vs. Alabama, 11/21 vs. LSU

The Volunteers QB situation concerns me just a bit, with two freshmen vying to replace former signal caller Joey Aguilar, who is trying to secure a spot on the Jacksonville Jaguars roster. Tennessee also has a new defensive coordinator who has an entirely rebuilt defense via the portal. Perhaps my expectations are too high for a team in the (alleged) toughest conference in the country, but Josh Heupel is a former SEC Coach of the Year, and with all three key games noted above happening in Knoxville I believe atleast one upset and a nine win season are reasonable expectations.

24 Arizona State

Last Season: 8-5 (lost Sun Bowl)

Key Games: 9/12 @ Texas A&M, 10/17 @ Texas Tech, 10/31 @ BYU

I am much higher on the Sun Devils than most. The Big 12 is looking like a dog fight, so one upset could make a huge difference. State will need to make their case on the road, and they’ll probably be another team using multiple quarterbacks after Sam Leavitt bolted for LSU. The offense has undergone a significant rebuild, so State will be leaning on its defense to win games. 

23 Nebraska

Last Season: 7-6 (lost Las Vegas Bowl)

Key Games: 10/17 @ Oregon, 10/31 vs. Washington, 11/27 @ Iowa

It seems like we’ve been waiting a very long time for the Cornhuskers to reclaim the glory they had back in the day when I was a boy. Unfortunately former Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is a combined 19-19 in his three years at the helm in Lincoln, and this feels like a make or break year for his tenure. Nebraska brings back 69% of their production on both sides of the ball. The question becomes is that a good thing from a team that was 7-6?? How much does stability matter in college football nowadays, and is the number deceiving anyway since Dylan Raiola bolted to be the backup quarterback at Oregon?? I suppose we’ll find out the answers, and I think it is possible that Rhule, with his back against the wall, can pull a couple rabbits out of the hat.

22 Texas A&M

Last Season: 11-2 (lost in first round of playoffs)

Key Games: 9/26 @ LSU, 10/24 @ Alabama, 11/14 vs. Tennessee

A year ago, in his second season in College Station, head coach Mike Elko led the Aggies to double digit wins for the first time since 2012. They return 65% of their production from last season, including QB Marcel Reed. Of course, they also had a program record ten players drafted into the NFL. I think we’ll see a slight regression, and securing a playoff berth will be challenging, but don’t be surprised if A&M sneaks into the tail end of the final rankings.

21 Alabama

Last Season: 11-4 (lost playoff quarterfinal)

Key Games: 10/10 vs. Georgia, 10/17 @ Tennessee, 11/7 @ LSU

Head coach Kalen DeBoer enters his third year in Tuscaloosa, and if he can replicate last season’s success it would calm the waters, although we all know the ‘Bama faithful are getting restless since they’ve been without a national title since 2020. I have a feeling they’ll yo-yo between junior QB Austin Mack & freshman Keelon Russell until one of them seizes control of the job. The Tide returns less than 50% of their production from a season ago and lost ten players in the NFL Draft. Having said that, ‘Bama is the horror movie psycho of college football…just when we think they’re dead in the water they rise up. They host Georgia in October, which is huge. Trips to Rocky Top & Death Valley hold the keys for the entire season.

20 Navy

Last Season: 11-2 (won Liberty Bowl)

Key Games: 10/24 vs. North Texas, 10/31 vs. Notre Dame, 12/12 vs. Army

I always have a soft spot for our service academies, not only for what their players become off the field, but also because their games are unique and fun to watch. The Midshipmen have had two consecutive double digit victory seasons under 4th year head coach Brian Newberry, and I’m predicting another one. I don’t think they’ll upset Notre Dame, but keep your eye on the October visit from North Texas that could be significant in determining an AAC champion.

19 Ole Miss

Last Season: 13-2 (lost playoff semifinal)

Key Games: 10/24 @ Texas, 11/7 vs. Georgia, 11/14 @ Oklahoma

Former head coach Lane Kiffin famously ditched the Rebels before the playoff began a season ago, so this will be Pete Golding’s first full year in charge. I’m sure he is happy to have QB Trinidad Chambliss back under center after a tumultuous offseason of legal battles to secure another year of eligibility for the young man. Junior RB Kewan Lacy also returns, so the offense should be solid. I believe it will be an uphill climb to equal last season, but don’t be surprised if Ole Miss upsets an opponent or two and Chambliss is a serious Heisman contender.

18 North Carolina State

Last Season: 8-5 (won Gasparilla Bowl)

Key Games: 10/23 @ Stanford, 11/21 @ Florida St., 11/28 @ UNC

I find ACC football rather prosaic. I don’t know why. However, with Clemson’s era of dominance seemingly over, the conference is atleast more competitive. The Wolfpack have been average at best for quite awhile, with head coach Dave Doeren in that position since 2013 and winning 8 or 9 games eight times. Can they win just one more game?? Can they go on the road and defeat two or three teams that they should theoretically handle easily?? We’ll see. 

17 BYU

Last Season: 12-2 (won Pop Tarts Bowl)

Key Games: 10/17 vs. Notre Dame, 10/31 vs. Arizona St., 11/7 @ Utah

QB Bear Bachmeier, in addition to having a cool name, is only a sophomore. The Cougars also added tight end Walker Lyons from USC and 6ft.6 receiver Kyle Kasper from Oregon. An October upset of Notre Dame in Provo would certainly improve their playoff resume, but even without that, being in the thick of the Big 12 title chase and double digit victories seem like attainable goals.

16 Texas Tech

Last Season: 12-2 (lost playoff quarterfinal)

Key Games: 9/18 vs. Houston, 10/17 vs. Arizona St., 11/26 vs. TCU

Contrary to the legal victories that secured the services of Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss for another season, the Red Raiders found themselves on the short end of the stick when it came to the brouhaha surrounding QB Brendan Sorsby, who was supposed to transfer from Cincinnati to Lubbock, but apparently enjoyed gambling on football even more than playing football. At any rate, in addition to the quarterback situation, Tech has to replace almost half their defense that was drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. I don’t believe they’ll win as many games or be in the Big 12 title hunt, but neither do I think Tech will fall off the map.

15 Southern Methodist

Last Season: 9-4 (won Holiday Bowl)

Key Games: 9/7 @ Florida St., 10/17 vs. Virginia, 11/21 @ Notre Dame

After securing a playoff berth in 2024 the Mustangs fell off just a bit last season, but still had a nice year that could’ve been even better. They lost two overtime games, including one to eventual playoff runner-up Miami. I don’t think they’ll go into South Bend and take down the Fighting Irish in November, but an early season battle in Tallahassee against the Seminoles feels like a winnable contest that could set a positive tone for the year.

14 Georgia

Last Season: 12-2 (lost playoff quarterfinal)

Key Games: 9/26 vs. Oklahoma, 10/10 @ Alabama, 11/7 @ Ole Miss

A year ago, while ranking the Bulldogs 11th, I said that I had a vibe that they wouldn’t be in the SEC title race. To their credit they proved me wrong, winning the conference championship before losing to Ole Miss in the playoff quarterfinals. However, I’m stubborn, so I’m ranking them even lower this preseason. They return a plethora of starters, including QB Gunner Stockton, center Drew Bobo, and defensive backs KJ Bolden & Ellis Robinson IV, but a closer examination of last season reveals that they won a couple of games that could’ve easily been losses. The ball could bounce the other way in 2026, but even if it does, a ten win season is nothing to be ashamed about.

13 Southern California

Last Season: 9-4 (lost Alamo Bowl)

Key Games: 9/26 vs. Oregon, 10/3 vs. Washington, 10/10 @ Penn St.

The Trojans return 15 starters, including senior QB & possible Heisman candidate Jayden Maiava, who has drawn comparisons to Steelers legend Ben Roethlisberger. Head coach Lincoln Riley enters his fifth year at the helm, with the past three seasons being solid yet unremarkable. They’ll need to approach double digit wins and upset a contender or two if Riley doesn’t want his seat to start getting a bit warm.

12 Indiana

Last Season: 16-0 (won CFP Championship)

Key Games: 10/17 vs. Ohio St., 11/14 vs. USC, 11/21 @ Washington

I understand that the Hoosiers are ranked in the Top 5 of most other polls. I know they are the defending National Champions. To be honest, I’m not even that sold on quarterback Fernando Mendoza as an NFL level talent, and believe it’s not a stretch to think incoming transfer Josh Hoover, a former starter at TCU, could replicate Mendoza’s success in Bloomington. The Hoosiers added additional talent thru the portal and of course retained head coach Curt Cignetti. Having said all of that, when one looks back and realizes that Indiana defeated Oregon (twice), Ohio St., Alabama, and Miami (FL) en route to perfection, it is simply difficult to fathom duplication of that achievement.

11 Boise State

Last Season: 9-5 (lost L.A. Bowl)

Key Games: 9/5 @ Oregon, 10/10 @ Fresno St., 11/14 vs. Oregon St.

The Broncos headline the revived & revamped Pac 12, which lacks the prestige of its former incarnation. However, if Boise wins the conference and gets to ten wins they will be a serious playoff contender, especially if they put up a fight in Eugene against the Ducks to open the season. I don’t expect Boise to win that game, but if they can keep the score within 15-20 points the powers-that-be will take notice.

10 Oregon

Last Season: 13-2 (lost playoff semifinal)

Key Games: 9/26 @ USC, 11/7 @ Ohio St., 11/28 vs. Washington

I’ll never get use to Oregon in the Big Ten. College football is stupid off the field. Anyway, QB Dante Moore decided to return to the Ducks rather than enter the NFL Draft, where he certainly would have been a first round pick. I suppose being throttled by Indiana in the playoff semis left a bad taste in his mouth. But can they even get that far again?? I think Oregon will need to score atleast one big upset on the road to be in the conversation. If they lose all three key games Moore may regret delaying his professional dreams.

9 Houston

Last Season: 10-3 (won Texas Bowl)

Key Games: 9/18 @ Texas Tech, 10/24 @ Utah, 11/21 @ WVU

The Big 12 is wide open, and I have no idea who may emerge on top. The Cougars return 65% of their production from a squad that won ten games. A key piece of the puzzle is senior QB Conner Weigman, who threw for over 2700 yards with an impressive 147.74 passer rating, added 700 yards on the ground, and had 36 total touchdowns. Houston also added a Top Ten transfer class from the portal. A year ago they were in the thick of the conference title scrum, but a couple of losses doomed their chances. They’ll need to be road warriors this season to flip the script.

8 Texas

Last Season: 10-3 (won Citrus Bowl)

Key Games: 9/12 vs. Ohio St., 9/26 @ Tennessee, 11/14 @ LSU

This will be QB Arch Manning’s final season in Austin, and it seems like the shine has worn off just a bit. Once upon a time Manning was a presumptive Heisman winner who most assumed would be the #1 overall draft pick, but now some are questioning if the hype was just that. The Longhorns weren’t terrible last year, but a season opening loss at Ohio St. set the wrong tone, and losing at Georgia in November doomed their playoff hopes. They have the Buckeyes at home this time, but will still need to win on the road for things to be better than a season ago.

7 Notre Dame

Last Season: 10-2 (declined bowl invitation)

Key Games: 9/6 vs. Wisconsin, 10/17 @ BYU, 11/7 vs. Miami (FL)

Fool me once, shame on you…fool me twice, shame on me. After ranking The Irish #1 a year ago, they thanked me with back-to-back season opening losses to Miami and Texas A&M. The schedule looks a little different this year because realignment has destroyed traditional rivalries, so I would be shocked if Notre Dame doesn’t sail thru the first half of the schedule, and anything less than ten wins and a playoff berth would be a huge disappointment. Sophomore quarterback CJ Carr is back, while running backs Jeremiyah Love & Jadarian Price are now plying their trade in the NFL. That being said, Notre Dame leads the nation in total returning production at 72%, bringing back 14 starters. 

6 LSU

Last Season: 7-6 (lost Texas Bowl)

Key Games: 9/19 @ Ole Miss, 11/7 vs. Alabama, 11/14 vs. Texas

There’s a new sheriff in the bayou, and his name is Lane Kiffin. Former head coach Brian Kelly was 34-14 in just less than four seasons, so Kiffin wasn’t hired to win 9 or 10 games and lead his team to the Citrus Bowl…they are expecting SEC titles & deep playoff runs in Baton Rouge. Kiffin brought in junior QB Sam Leavitt from Arizona St., while LSU is projected to have a Top 5 defense. A mid-September clash at Ole Miss will be hyped by the talking heads for obvious reasons (I’ll be stunned if ESPN’s Gameday isn’t on the scene), but November home games against ‘Bama & Texas will probably decide the conference championship.

5 Ohio State

Last Season: 12-2 (lost playoff quarterfinal)

Key Games: 9/12 @ Texas, 10/17 @ Indiana, 11/7 vs. Oregon

The Buckeyes are at the top of most other polls, but I can’t go there after back-to-back losses (in the Big Ten title game & playoff quarterfinals) to end last season. Talent is never a problem in Columbus. Sophomore QB Julian Sayin returns after passing for 3600 yards & 33 touchdowns with a completion rate of 77% (which led the nation). He finished 4th in Heisman Trophy voting. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith fell off a bit last year after a phenomenal freshman season, but that was due to a quad injury that negatively impacted two games in November. There were some huge departures from the defense. Four of the first eleven picks in the NFL Draft were from Ohio St., with three of those being defensive players. Rebuilding that unit is the biggest key to the team’s success.

4 Washington

Last Season: 9-4 (won L.A. Bowl)

Key Games: 10/3 @ USC, 11/21 vs. Indiana, 11/28 @ Oregon

The Huskies have flown under the radar the last couple of seasons since former head coach Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama after leading Washington to the CFP championship game in 2024. However, coming off a 9-4 finish there is a ton of optimism in Seattle. Washington is another west coast team inexplicably competing in the Big Ten, but I’ll refrain from beating that dead horse. Skill positions took a hit after RB Jonah Coleman & receiver Denzel Boston were drafted into the NFL, but returning QB Demond Williams Jr., who threw for over 3000 yards and scored 31 touchdowns last season, has been compared to Kyler Murray with flashes of Russell Wilson. Defense will be the difference maker, and I think we’ll see the Huskies pull off a couple of big upsets.

3 Utah

Last Season: 11-2 (won Las Vegas Bowl)

Key Games: 10/24 vs. Houston, 11/7 vs. BYU, 11/21 @ TCU

A year ago I overlooked the Utes in the Big 12, but they were in the hunt right to the very end of the season. I expect the conference to be just as competitive this season, if not more so. Head coach Morgan Scalley takes over for Kyle Whittingham, who left for Michigan. However, since Scalley had been the defensive coordinator in Salt Lake City for a decade, I don’t think continuity will be an issue. Senior QB Devon Dampier threw for almost 2500 yards last season, rushed for over 800 yards, and scored 34 touchdowns. Their defense will have to kick it up a notch or two, and Utah needs to defend their home field against some formidable opponents.

2 Penn State

Last Season: 7-6 (won Pinstripe Bowl) 

Key Games: 10/10 vs. USC, 10/17 @ Michigan, 11/7 @ Washington

I’m a big fan of my boy Rocco Becht, who will become the Nittany Lions new quarterback after following head coach Matt Campbell from Iowa St. to Happy Valley. There’s no way around it…last season was a disaster for Penn St., so they needed a total reset. Winning the Big Ten is a tall mountain to climb, but I think it’s doable. There are advantages to being disregarded & undervalued, and this is a team that may just take a few opponents by surprise.

1 Miami (FL)

Last Season: 13-3 (CFP Championship runner-up)

Key Games: 10/3 @ Clemson, 10/17 vs. Florida St., 11/7 @ Notre Dame

We’d been waiting for the once dominant ‘Canes to be a force once again, and last season they made it all the way to the CFP championship game. The ACC might be the most winnable conference in the country, and it’s odd to recall that Miami didn’t even play in the title game last year thanks to close losses to Louisville & SMU. They snuck into the playoff and went on an incredible run, defeating three Top Ten teams before falling to Indiana. Can they do it again?? Miami lost nine players in the NFL Draft, including three first round choices. QB Darian Mensah has transferred to Coral Gables from Duke, and he might be even better than former signal caller Carson Beck. However, the bigger issue is defense, which was Top 5 in the country a season ago. Can they reload?? Will a new look defense be as good as they were last year?? Winning the conference is a priority, in part because it would make the playoff path somewhat less difficult.

2023 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 15

I sure hope this week isn’t as brutal as last, when we were both 2-5. Clearly we don’t know as much about college football as we’d prefer. At any rate, we’ve made it to the conference championship games. Playoff berths will be won & lost, while those left on the outside of that inner circle are jockeying for positions on the bowl game hierarchy. Let’s ride!!

My Season: 49-36

Zach’s Season: 40-45

New Mexico State at Liberty (-10.5)

C-USA Championship Game

The Flames won this matchup comfortably back in September and are coming in unbeaten. Unfortunately they’re a year too early to be included in the expanded playoff. The 10-3 Aggies played an extra game because they traveled to Hawaii. I don’t foresee this game being much different from the regular season meeting. Conversely, Zach likes NM St.’s dual threat QB and thinks it’ll be a close game. He has put Liberty on upset alert.

My Pick: Liberty

Zach’s Pick: New Mexico St.

Oregon (-8.5) vs. Washington

Pac-12 Championship Game (Las Vegas)

I know what I’m doing on Friday night!! Our local Christmas parade is at 6pm, but I should be home in time to fix myself a hot beverage and hunker down in front of the TV for a game with significant impact on the entire landscape. First, it is the final Pac 12 game ever, with practically every team bolting for “greener pastures” next year, which is sad. Secondly, the QB of the winning team…the Huskies’ Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix of the Ducks…will almost certainly become the prohibitive Heisman favorite. However, the biggest consideration here is that the winner will lock in a playoff berth. When these teams did battle in mid-October Washington scored a touchdown with a minute & a half on the clock for a dramatic victory. Since then both teams have kept on winning, but Oregon has looked more impressive. I think they take care of business and Nix wins the Heisman Trophy. Zach, on the other hand, foresees Washington winning with dramatic last minute drive, and believes the Huskies are legit National Championship contenders.

My Pick: Oregon

Zach’s Pick: Washington

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo (-8)

MAC Championship Game (Detroit)

I used to love some mid-week MACtion on ESPN, but truthfully I haven’t paid much attention for quite awhile. Since a season opening loss at Illinois the Rockets have reeled off eleven straight victories. The Red Hawks have had a very similar season except for their previous matchup against Toledo, which was a four point loss. Miami’s QB is Brett Gabbert, the younger brother of Blaine Gabbert, who was famously chosen in the first round of the NFL Draft ahead of JJ Watt and has worn more uniforms than a Village People tribute band. Anyway, I think Toledo gets a double digit win. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Toledo

Zach’s Pick: Toledo

Boise State (-3.5) at UNLV

Mountain West Championship Game

This will be the Broncos sixth appearance in the title game in the past seven years. They won two of those games. At 7-5 it’s kind of surprising they’re playing for the championship. Is the Mountain West that mid?? The 9-3 Rebels are playing in their first championship game since joining the conference in 1999, and The Vibes are telling me they’ll hoist the trophy on their home turf. Zach thinks it’ll be a shootout, with the favorites coming out on top.

My Pick: UNLV

Zach’s Pick: Boise St.

Southern Methodist at Tulane (-3.5)

AAC Championship Game

I didn’t give the Green Wave enough respect. Most outlets had them firmly entrenched in the Top 25 coming into the season after they finished 12-2 last year, but I gave that spot to UTSA (who finished this season 8-4). Tulane has duplicated their previous success and come into this contest 11-1. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Mustangs are riding an eight game winning streak. I am old enough to remember the glory days of SMU, with the Pony Express duo of Eric Dickerson & Craig James, followed by the “death penalty”, which shut down the program for a couple of years in the late 1980s and caused them to struggle for two decades. They have had some good seasons in the past ten years, but a conference championship would certainly put a bow on their comeback story. Zach opines that Tulane’s defense is going to need to step up and stop the high octane SMU offense, and he doesn’t think that will happen.

My Pick: SMU

Zach’s Pick: SMU

Appalachian State at Troy (-7)

Sun Belt Championship Game

When these teams met during the 2022 regular season the Mountaineers came away with a close win. The Trojans have won 10+ for the second consecutive year, while App. St. is 8-4 but have won five games in a row. I smell an upset brewing, so I’m leaning toward the underdogs. Zach thinks it could be the best game of the weekend, and he believes the visitors are a hotter team right now.

My Pick: Appalachian St.

Zach’s Pick: Appalachian St.

Texas (-11.5) vs. Oklahoma State

Big 12 Championship Game (Dallas)

The 9-3 Cowboys find themselves in this spot because they defeated in-state rival Oklahoma a few weeks ago, while the Longhorns lost to the Sooners in October but have beaten everyone else, including Alabama in the season opener, which could be weighed heavily by the playoff committee. Do “style points” factor into the “body of work”?? I think it does matter, which means the Longhorns will be left out in the cold if they don’t cover, even if they win. I would be surprised by an OK St. victory, but not shocked if they keep it close. That being said, I think Texas takes care of business. Zach doesn’t think the Cowboys have anything to lose so they’ll leave everything out on the field. He believes it’ll be competitive for three quarters, but ultimately Texas will pull away late.

My Pick: Texas

Zach’s Pick: Texas

Georgia (-4.5) vs. Alabama

SEC Championship Game (Atlanta)

Depending on which scenario shakes out, one or the other, neither, or both teams could be playoff bound. Could the unbeaten Bulldogs fall short in this game but still get the 4th playoff seed?? Perhaps. Conversely, the Tide almost certainly needs to win, and that season opening loss to Texas has to be important because invalidating head-to-head regular season results would be a bad look. ‘Bama leads the all-time series 42-26-4, but I think the favorites make the CFP Committee’s job a skosh easier with a 7-10 point triumph. Conversely, Zach has always been a huge Nick Saban fan. He has stated all season that Georgia isn’t as good as they’ve been the past few years, and he believes their luck will run out.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Alabama

Florida State (-5.5) vs. Louisville

ACC Championship Game

It might be the least attractive title game of them all going in, but maybe it’ll be more entertaining than it looks on paper. The undefeated Seminoles aren’t guaranteed a playoff berth even with a win, which is precisely why many thought expanding the field was necessary. The 10-2 Cardinals aren’t playoff contenders even with a victory, but a conference title and a New Year’s bowl game are worthy goals. Thus far Florida St. is doing just fine with a backup QB, so I think they win this game but get left out of the playoff. Zach thinks Florida St. will do just enough to win, and doesn’t see how they could be left out of the playoff in that case.

My Pick: Florida St.

Zach’s Pick: Florida St.

Michigan (-23) vs. Iowa

Big Ten Championship Game (Indianapolis)

I would be absolutely stunned if Iowa wins the game. At 10-2 they’ve certainly had a nice season and will receive a well deserved & lucrative bowl bid, but the unbeaten Wolverines are on another level. A win gets Michigan into the playoff, while a loss might not eliminate them completely, although too many unrealistic dominos would need to fall in that situation. I don’t believe it will be an issue though. The only questions are 1) will there be a hangover from the Ohio St. game, and 2) with bigger fish to fry could they possibly ease up in the second half, winning the game by only 15-20 points?? I’m going with “no” to both. Zach is playing it closer to the vest than me, taking Michigan to win but not to cover the huge spread.

My Pick: Michigan

Zach’s Pick: Iowa

2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 15

Do you want the good news or the bad news?? I suppose it doesn’t really matter, as it’s all about perspective. We were both a dismal 3-7 last week, meaning Zach maintains the season lead. It also means that I’ve fallen below .500, which doesn’t make me happy. We’re ending the college football portion of our programming with Championship Weekend, with some games occurring Friday night & some on Saturday. I am not sure how much football I’ll get to watch because this weekend begins a pretty full dance card for the entirety of December, but in contrast to being laid up in a medical facility for the Christmas season I can’t complain. 

My Season: 41-43

Zach’s Season: 43-41

C-USA Championship 

North Texas at Texas-San Antonio (-8.5)

With all due respect, I am glad my Marshall Thundering Herd escaped Conference USA, which is basically a starter pack league. That being said, I’m kind of digging this game because the teams involved have cool names. I suppose I am easily entertained. I cannot opine with any level of confidence except to say that the Roadrunners won the title a year ago & have the home field advantage. By the time this game ends on Friday night (it’s on the CBS Sports Network in case you’re interested) I expect that they will have defended their championship and overcome the Mean Green. Zach likes UTSA’s offense in a blowout that’ll be all but over by halftime. 

My Pick: UTSA 

Z’s Pick: UTSA

PAC 12 Championship

Utah vs. Southern California (-3)

It’s pretty simple for the Trojans…win & they’re in The Playoff. One would think that’d be plenty of motivation. However, don’t count out the 9-3 Utes. Granted, they backed into this game via a weird tiebreaker system despite the fact they lost to Oregon a few weeks ago, but we cannot overlook the fact that Utah actually defeated the Trojans in mid-October. That game was decided by a gutsy 2 point conversion in the final minute, and it should be noted that it was in Salt Lake City. Can they do it again on a neutral field?? I’m on the fence to be quite honest, but enjoy playoff controversy and generally lean toward the underdog, so I’m pulling for an upset, whether it’s a smart move or not. Zach predicts a shootout, but thinks USC quarterback & Heisman front runner Caleb Williams is a difference maker. 

My Pick: Utah 

Z’s Pick: USC 

MAC Championship 

Toledo (-1.5) vs. Ohio

There was a brief period of time when I occasionally enjoyed some MACtion when they’d have midweek games on ESPN, but it’s been awhile. This is a neutral site game in Detroit, so there’s no home field advantage. The 7-5 Rockets have lost their last two games, while the 9-3 Bobcats have won seven straight. It’s a Noon kickoff Saturday on ESPN, which might hook some viewers tuned into Gameday, including me. Momentum is obviously leaning toward Ohio, while the oddsmakers like Toledo. When in doubt follow the money, right?? Zach has issues with the entire state of Ohio, but he’s picking the Bobcats in a coin flip. 

My Pick: Toledo 

Z’s Pick: Ohio 

Sun Belt Championship 

Coastal Carolina at Troy (-10.5)

It ticks me off that the Herd aren’t in this game. How in the hell does a team upset Notre Dame in South Bend, then lose to Bowling Green?? My guys were also beaten by the 10-2 Trojans, who come into this game as double digit favorites on a nine game winning streak. The Chanticleers are 9-2 themselves, but could be without the services of starting QB Grayson McCall, who has been suffering from an ankle injury. Coastal got trucked by James Madison last week without McCall, so the prognosis isn’t good if he’s out again. They dominated time of possession in that game with over 40 minutes, but punted nine times & had two turnovers. Zach believes Coastal will be fired up after last week’s stunning loss, and he foresees a rebound win. 

My Pick: Troy 

Z’s Pick: Coastal Carolina 

Mountain West Championship

Fresno State at Boise State (-3.5)

We haven’t talked much about the Broncos this year, but they’re 9-3 on a three game winning streak. The 8-4 Bulldogs started slow but have won seven games in a row. It’s a 4pm Saturday kickoff on Fox, and unfortunately I probably won’t get to see the 4th quarter. Will the contest be decided by then?? Probably not, but I like Boise to come out on top on the infamous blue turf. Zach thinks it’ll be a low scoring defensive struggle, with the home team getting a close victory. 

My Pick: Boise St.

Z’s Pick: Boise St. 

AAC Championship 

Central Florida at Tulane (-3)

The American is another conference that doesn’t hold their title game on a neutral field, which makes it feel like a second rate rematch. The 10-2 Green Wave lost to the 9-3 Knights just a few weeks ago. That game was also in New Orleans, so I don’t know why anyone would expect a different outcome this time. Zach is expecting another competitive contest, but also thinks the outcome will be the same. 

My Pick: UCF 

Z’s Pick: UCF 

Big Ten Championship 

Purdue vs. Michigan (-16.5)

I’m not sure what to think about this one. The undefeated Wolverines are clearly a better team and will secure a spot in The Playoff with a victory. Even with a loss…unless they are inexplicably blown out…I expect Michigan is in the Final Four, although that’s certainly not a guarantee. Having said that, Indianapolis is only an hour away from the 8-4 Boilermakers’ home base, so they might enjoy a slight “home field” advantage. Michigan put so much into defeating Ohio St. last week that this becomes a classic trap game. Throw in the questionable health of RB Blake Corum & a two TDs+ point spread, and all the sudden the picture becomes somewhat murky. Of course the Wolverines rushing attack looked just fine a week ago, with sophomore Donovan Edwards averaging over 9 yards/carry on his way to over 200 yards & two touchdowns. Still, the fact is that the favorites just need to win…they don’t need to win big. So what if they’re up 15-20 points in the fourth quarter & the defense is playing well?? Could they take their foot off the gas just enough for Purdue to cover?? That’s what I’m predicting. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Purdue

Z’s Pick: Purdue 

ACC Championship 

Clemson (-7.5) vs. North Carolina 

I knew it. When ranking Clemson 11th in my preseason poll I said “will they be back in the playoff picture this season…I don’t think so….the only shot Clemson has is to go undefeated in convincing fashion & lay a smackdown on Notre Dame in South Bend”. Instead, the Tigers lost by three TDs to the Irish, were narrowly defeated by in-state rival South Carolina last weekend, and sit 9th in the ranking, just about where I predicted. But…are the 9-3 Tar Heels worthy competition?? Charlotte is a truly neutral site & both teams are coming off losses, so essentially it comes down to coaching & talent. As much as I respect UNC coach Mack Brown I believe Dabo Swinney is better right now, and he has superior talent. Zach likes Carolina to keep it close & atleast cover in a high scoring shootout.

My Pick: Clemson 

Z’s Pick: North Carolina 

Big 12 Championship 

Kansas State vs. Texas Christian (-2.5)

The unbeaten Horned Frogs have more riding on this game than perhaps any other team playing this weekend. If they win they’ll be in The Playoff, but I am not at all confident in their chances of being amongst the Final Four with a loss. Let’s face it…the powers-that-be are chomping at the bit for an excuse to insert Ohio St. or Alabama back into the mix. Meanwhile, with everyone’s attention focused on Fort Worth, TX, the 9-3 Wildcats have quietly put together a pretty solid season. I think this will be a hell of a game for awhile. Much like Michigan, TCU just has to win…they don’t need to blow away the competition. The difference is the points are negligible in this one. When the two teams met back in October TCU score a comfortable ten point victory. It might be a little tighter this time, but I expect a similar outcome. Zach agrees. 

My Pick: TCU

Z’s Pick: TCU

SEC Championship

LSU vs. Georgia (-17.5)

LSU is a confusing team. They began the season with a surprising loss to Florida St. in New Orleans, then won a few games before getting demolished by Tennessee at home. They beat Alabama, but finished the season losing to a Texas A&M team that couldn’t even achieve bowl eligibility. Conversely, the #1 Bulldogs have cruised thru an unblemished schedule, unless you want to hold an early October scrape against Missouri that wasn’t decided until late in the 4th quarter against them. They call this a “neutral” field, but I’m pretty sure most of the 75k people on hand in Atlanta will be leaning a certain way. However, a couple of things must be considered. First, Georgia has played in five SEC title games since 2017 and won only once. Secondly, they are going to The Playoff no matter what, it’s just a matter of seeding. All things considered, I believe the points are simply too much. I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright Bayou Bengals victory, but the more likely scenario is that LSU plays balls to the wall, Georgia rests most of their starters in the second half, and the favorites end up winning by less than ten points. Conversely, Zach doesn’t believe it’ll be any different than most other games on Georgia’s schedule, and thinks they’ll win handily. 

My Pick: LSU

Z’s Pick: Georgia 

2021 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 14  

After last weekend’s craziness the playoff committee released their rankings as follows: Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame, & Ohio St.. That’s the Top 7 and no one else really matters. Barring any upsets in the conference title games (a huge IF if there ever was one) the essential questions are these: a) how far will the loser of the SEC Championship fall?? & b) can Oklahoma St. leapfrog Cincinnati if they win the Big 12 title?? Notre Dame is screwed because they’re sitting at home while these other teams are still playing. They need Cincinnati AND Oklahoma St. to lose, and even then the 4th playoff spot could go to Ohio St.. At any rate, our marathon of picks during Rivalry Week turned out slightly better for me (6-3) than Zach (2-7), and the lineup is even more packed this weekend. Unfortunately I have plans Friday & Saturday so I probably won’t be watching much of the action. I should be able to keep up with the scores frequently though.

My Season: 43-43

Zach’s Season: 32-54

C-USA

Western Kentucky at UTSA (-2.5)

The first time these teams met on October 9 in Bowling Green, KY the Roadrunners won a high scoring shootout, so the rematch has the potential to be a lot of fun. I’m pretty pissed that my Marshall Thundering Herd isn’t playing in this one, but they blew their chance in spectacular fashion. Texas-San Antonio has the home field and that’s enough for me. Conversely, Zach feels like momentum favors the Hilltoppers and he thinks they’ll eek out a close win.

My Pick: UTSA 

Z’s Pick: Western Kentucky 

PAC 12 (Las Vegas, NV)

Utah (-3) vs. Oregon 

I am intrigued. When these teams met on November 20 in Salt Lake City the Utes scored a huge 38-7 victory and ended Oregon’s playoff aspirations. Will the Ducks face a similar fate on a neutral field?? I don’t think so. It’ll be much closer this time, and I think the underdogs have what it takes to pull off the mild Friday night upset. Zach, on the other hand, believes Utah is firing on all cylinders right now and has a better team with superior athletes. He agrees that it’ll be closer than the first contest between these two, but thinks the favorites will win again. 

My Pick: Oregon 

Z’s Pick: Utah 

Big 12 (Dallas, TX)

Oklahoma State (-7) vs. Baylor 

On October 2 the Bears went into Stillwater and were defeated 24-14, but this game is being played at Jerry World, aka The Palace in Dallas, so there is no home field advantage. The Cowboys could earn a playoff spot if Cincinnati loses, and a convincing win could make the debate interesting even if Cincy wins. I don’t expect anything to be drastically different than the first meeting, and with (potentially) so much at stake I believe we’re looking at another solid OK St. triumph. Zach is impressed by State’s defense and likes their offensive line, but foresees a tight ballgame that could be decided by a late or overtime field goal. 

My Pick: Oklahoma State

Z’s Pick: Baylor 

Mountain West

Utah State at San Diego State (-3.5)

I don’t know who makes the schedule, but c’mon man!! I should be able to hunker down in my warm bed late at night and watch a fun west coast battle, but instead we’re getting a 3pm EST kickoff. Anyway, these teams have not previously met this season, which is a rarity in conference title games. The 9-3 Aggies face a tough task going into hostile territory against the 11-1 Aztecs, who are riding a four game win streak. I don’t expect anything too crazy and believe the home team will win comfortably. Zach likes Utah St.’s ground game but feels like San Diego St.’s defense will come alive in the second half to secure a win.

My Pick: San Diego State 

Z’s Pick: San Diego State

AAC

Houston at Cincinnati (-11)

The Bearcats are causing me a considerable amount of cognitive dissonance. I’m an underdog guy. Always have been, always will be. That being said, I am just not sure Cincinnati belongs in the playoff. They deserve kudos for going thru their schedule undefeated, but are they truly on the level of any Power 5 opponent they’d face in the semifinal?? I have serious doubts. My feelings about this game are further complicated by the presence of current Cougars & former WVU Mountaineers head coach Dana Holgorsen. We expected big things from him in the Mountain State, and he was a fairly decent 51-38 in seven seasons at the helm. However, Holgorsen clearly wasn’t happy here and jumped at the chance to take the Houston job. Both of these teams will be members of the Big 12 in the near future, so the rivalry will continue to grow. This particular contest isn’t hard to pick for me because the points are just too much. Cincy will probably win, but it won’t be a double digit victory. Zach doesn’t think Cincinnati belongs in the playoff but doesn’t believe the committee will deny them if they win this game. However, he foresees Holgorsen having his team ready to pull off the upset. If that happens no one will be happier than the CFP committee. 

My Pick: Houston

Z’s Pick: Houston 

MAC (Detroit, MI)

Northern Illinois vs. Kent State (-5.5)

I used to be a big fan of MACtion. Their random Tuesday or Wednesday night games were a treat. To be honest though, it’s been a few years since I’ve paid any attention to the conference. I vaguely recall when the Huskies went 12-2 in 2012 and lost to Florida St. in the Orange Bowl. NIU quarterback Jordan Lynch finished third in Heisman voting in 2013 behind Alabama QB AJ McCarron & winner Jameis Winston, the quarterback at Florida St. As far as this game, the Golden Flashes are 7-5 and led a rather weak field in the MAC West, while NIU is a solid but unspectacular 8-4 and were beaten by three TDs in their last game. When these teams met just a few weeks ago Kent won a 52-47 shootout, although NIU scored 20 fourth quarter points as their spirited comeback fell short. I suppose there’s a chance it could be a sneakily entertaining contest, but I’m leaning toward Kent winning by double digits. Conversely, Zach likes NIU to pound the rock and score the upset. 

My Pick: Kent State 

Z’s Pick: Northern Illinois 

Sun Belt

Appalachian State (-3.5) at Louisiana

This is my sleeper pick for best game of the week. On October 12 the Mountaineers traveled to Lafayette and suffered a 41-13 loss, so I’m a bit surprised by the odds. The Ragin’ Cajuns haven’t tasted defeat since losing the season opener at Texas, but it seems like they’re not getting much respect. Perhaps the impending departure of head coach Billy Napier to the Florida Gators is a factor. Otherwise, do the oddsmakers have some inside info, or are they simply making assumptions?? I don’t know. Given the current circumstances and taking what we know at face value I have to lean toward the home team scoring a mild “upset”. Zach predicts special teams will play an important role in an App. St. victory. 

My Pick: Louisiana 

Z’s Pick: Appalachian State

SEC (Atlanta, GA)

Georgia (-6.5) vs. Alabama 

As a certain former President might say, this game is YUUUGGGEEE. Not only will an SEC Champion be crowned, but there are major playoff implications. If Georgia wins they’re in, but it is entirely possible that they could lose yet not fall out of the Top 4. And what about ‘Bama?? Obviously they’d be in with a victory, but what happens if they lose?? Will the committee twist themselves in knots trying to justify only dropping the Tide to #4?? The simplest outcome is also the most likely…the Bulldogs win & cover and remain #1, while Alabama drops to #5 and is denied another National Championship opportunity. That’s what I’m hoping to see. As much as Zach respects Nick Saban he just doesn’t think this Alabama team measures up to their predecessors. He thinks Georgia has the best defense in the country and the offense is pretty good too. He’s predicting a big Bulldogs victory. 

My Pick: Georgia 

Z’s Pick: Georgia 

ACC (Charlotte, NC)

Pitt vs. Wake Forest (-2.5)

Good Lord, could there be a more underwhelming matchup?? The ACC really needs Clemson & Florida St. to figure things out because the rest of the conference is a snoozefest. Credit where it is due though, as the 10-2 Panthers have won four straight, while the Demon Deacons lost two of their final four games but still finished 10-2. The game is theoretically being played at a neutral site, but Wake will enjoy a quasi-home field advantage since their campus is only an hour away. That’s enough for me to predict a mundane & unremarkable victory for the favorites. Zach likes Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and believes he will have a great day picking apart Wake’s defense.

My Pick: Wake Forest

Z’s Pick: Pitt

Big Ten (Indianapolis, IN)

Michigan (-9) vs. Iowa 

I’m not a mental health expert, but I know that folks with bipolar disorder experience extreme highs followed by extraordinary lows. I also understand that it is sometimes difficult for athletes to sustain a high level of intensity. Therefore, my question is what do the 11-1 Wolverines have left in the tank after their magnificent beatdown of Ohio St.?? This game isn’t at The Big House against their archrivals, but they are playing for their first Big Ten title since 2004 and a playoff berth that could lead to their first National Championship since 1997. Theoretically that should be ample motivation, right?? The 10-2 Hawkeyes fell off the radar after two consecutive October losses, yet here they are on a four game winning streak. Closer examination reveals that they won those four games by an average of less than 5 points against teams that are collectively 19-29. In other words their schedule was frontloaded, and they didn’t face Michigan or Ohio St.. Iowa’s most impressive victory was a home game against Penn St., a 7-5 team that lost four out of six games in the second half of the season. I don’t think there’s any way Michigan loses this game. However, I can see a dropoff in energy leading to the final margin of victory being a touchdown or less. Zach is also concerned about an emotional letdown for his beloved Wolverines, as well as the enormous pressure they face in restoring the program to its former glory. He points out that Iowa has won 5 out of the last 7 matchups between the two schools. Having said all of that, he isn’t picking against Michigan again (although it did work a week ago). 

My Pick: Iowa 

Z’s Pick: Michigan 

2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 14

 

It all comes down to this…for them, not us. We still have a few more weeks of NFL action, but for now we are all college football one last time. It’s Championship Week, when conference titles will be won and playoff berths will be decided. Last week we didn’t do too bad, with me (5-2) edging out Zach (4-3), thanks to a big Auburn victory that seems to have (thankfully) knocked Alabama out of playoff contention. Credit to Zach though…he has brought his season record back to .500, so I’m going to have to do my due diligence and stay on my toes for the remainder of the season. Most of the conference title games are at neutral sites with a couple of exceptions, and most take place on Saturday (with one notable Friday night game). Enjoy!!

My Season:        47-35

Zach’s Season:  41-41

 

 

 

 

 

 

Utah (-6.5)                     vs.              Oregon

Pac 12 Championship (Santa Clara, CA)

Oregon is out of playoff contention thanks to that tough November loss to Arizona St., but a conference championship and playing bigtime spoiler would be a nice consolation prize. Utah needs a domino or two to fall, and the playoff committee might hold a September loss to USC against them since the Trojans finished the regular season a slightly above average 8-4. But have you seen the Utes play?? They have the third best defense in the country, and their offense averages 36 points per game. In other words, they’re legit and would be a solid playoff team. The Ducks aren’t going to make it easy though. This is the Friday night game I mentioned and it should be a lot of fun. I think Utah has too much riding on the outcome and will play their best game. Conversely, Zach believes Oregon will really embrace a spoiler role.

My Pick:     Utah

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

Hawaii       at      Boise State (-14)

Mountain West Championship

I kind of feel sorry for Boise. Year in & year out they win 10 or 11 games and almost always play for the conference title, and their big reward is playing in the Las Vegas Bowl. Not that there is anything wrong with Vegas…I’ve been dying to visit there for years. Anyway, the Broncos have made a couple of splashes in the top bowl games, winning the Fiesta Bowl in 2007, 2010, & 2014. Will they receive a similar opportunity this season?? Well, first they’ll need to win this weekend, which I don’t think will be an issue. Zach thinks Hawaii is better than they’re being given credit for. He falls short of predicting an outright upset, but thinks it’ll definitely be closer than two TDs.

My Pick:     Boise State

Z’s Pick:     Hawaii

 

 

 

Virginia     vs.    Clemson (-28.5)

ACC Championship (Charlotte, NC)

First of all, I don’t believe that Clemson deserves to be in the playoff even if they win this game. Their conference is weak & their schedule is weak other than a non-conference win over Texas A&M. The talking heads can yap all they want to about “resume” and “body of work”, but the simple truth is that Clemson will receive a playoff spot because they are Clemson. They are being rewarded for their recent pedigree, not for what they’ve done this season. Having said that, I don’t think the Tigers will have any issues putting away Virginia. The Cavaliers have had a nice season and will head to a sweet bowl location, but they aren’t winning the ACC title. Will Clemson cover?? They usually do, so I’m just going to roll with it. Zach, on the other hand, is making the smart move. He doesn’t think Virginia will win, but he believes they’re good enough to stay within four TDs.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Virginia

 

 

 

Baylor                 vs.              Oklahoma (-9)

Big 12 Championship (Dallas, TX)

As much as I truly believe Utah deserves that fourth playoff berth the “experts” seem to be leaning toward Oklahoma because…well, they’re Oklahoma. People like ESPN’s Paul Finebaum are under the delusion that the masses would rather see the Sooners than the Utes compete for the national championship, but he’s absolutely wrong. Trust me, college football fans are tired of the same old thing. Most fans outside of Tuscaloosa are ecstatic that Alabama won’t be in the playoff, and we’d be just as thrilled to see Oklahoma on the outside looking in. These two teams just did battle a few weeks ago, with Oklahoma scoring a narrow three point victory. I think it’ll be just as close again, and I’m hoping for an upset. Conversely, Zach believes the Sooners will learn from the mistakes they made in the previous matchup and won’t trail the entire game, winning by double digits.

My Pick:     Baylor

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma

 

 

 

Cincinnati                              at                         Memphis (-9.5)

American Athletic Championship

Speaking of rematches, these two teams just played each other a week ago. Memphis scored a ten point victory, which explains the point spread. The winner seems likely to beat out Boise for a New Year’s bowl game, although that’s certainly not etched in stone. At any rate, I see no reason to expect a different outcome from what we saw last weekend. Zach believes Memphis will win again but the Bearcats will make it closer than the first contest.

My Pick:     Memphis

Z’s Pick:     Cincinnai

 

 

 

Georgia                        vs.                       LSU (-7)

SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA)

I don’t think I’d be going too far out on a limb to predict that the Bayou Bengals will be a playoff team no matter what happens this week. Worst case scenario is that they drop to #4 with a loss. Conversely, the Bulldogs have to win to hold onto a playoff spot. These two teams have not played one another this year, so that adds a layer of intrigue. It may be instructive to look at a common opponent: Texas A&M. Georgia beat the Aggies by six points a few weeks ago, while the very next week LSU defeated the Aggies in a 43 point blowout. I don’t think LSU will break a sweat winning this game and will have their backups in early in the second half. Zach foresees a defensive struggle and thinks that LSU quarterback & leading Heisman candidate Joe Burrow will make the difference in the 4th quarter.

My Pick:     LSU

Z’s Pick:     LSU

 

 

 

Ohio State (-16.5)                          vs.                       Wisconsin

Big Ten Championship (Indianapolis, IN)

Much like LSU I don’t see any scenario in which the Buckeyes aren’t in the playoff. I also don’t believe there is any way they’ll lose this game. However, I do think Wisconsin is being overlooked a little bit. That mid-October loss at Illinois really screwed up their season, but they are a better team than that, and RB Jonathan Taylor should be the Heisman frontrunner. I foresee a scenario in which Ohio St….with the bigger picture in mind…decides not to risk injuries to their starters by playing them in the fourth quarter. That might not mean a Badger victory because Ohio St. would have to be ahead by a significant margin for them to make that decision, but it could allow the underdogs to score a couple of times and pull closer. Zach likes Ohio St. RB JK Dobbins, but opines that the Buckeyes have choked in big games in previous years. He not only believes it’ll be a close game, but is picking the outright upset.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:     Wisconsin

2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 13

It’s Rivalry Week in college football, and while conference realignment has obliterated too much of that sacred tradition there are a few tasty morsels remaining. One game we will not be picking though is Ohio St./Michigan. Y’all know we don’t pick Steelers, WV Mountaineers, or Marshall Thundering Herd games specifically because Zach & I both love the Steelers, I’m a Marshall alum, & we’ve both grown up as Mountaineer fans. So it dawned on me that perhaps it is a bit unfair to make Zach pick games involving his beloved Wolverines, atleast when the game is as important as this one. Fortunately there are enough interesting options that we have a full slate+ even without that game. Some of these occur on Black Friday, most are on Saturday. I won’t remember exactly which is which, but The Manoverse is smart enough to figure it out. Best wishes to all for a Happy Thanksgiving.

My Season:        42-33

Zach’s Season:  37-38

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cincinnati                             at                Memphis (-10.5)

We don’t pick a lot of “Group of Five” games, but this one is kind of important. The best team from the “other” five conferences gets an opportunity to face one of the big boys in a New Year’s bowl game, and right now it looks like the winner of this game will have a leg up on the competition, although Boise St. is in the mix as well. On top of all that, Cincinnati has already clinched a spot in the AAC title game, and Memphis could do the same with a victory, so there could be a rematch next week. Actually a rematch is pretty much a done deal because Memphis would hold tiebreakers over both Navy & SMU. At any rate, the Tigers have the home field and are riding a five game win streak, while the only blemish for the Bearcats is an early September loss to Ohio St., which is nothing to be ashamed of. I’m not sure why Memphis is a double digit favorite even playing at home. The points are enough to scare me off and choose Cincinnati. Zach concurs and thinks it’ll be a high scoring affair decided by single digits.

My Pick:     Cincinnati

Z’s Pick:     Cincinnati

 

 

 

 

Oregon State               at                Oregon (-19.5)

They call this game The Civil War and it goes back 125 years. The Ducks were in the playoff hunt but got upset last week. They’ve already sewn up a spot in the Pac 12 title game though, so they can focus their attention on battling Utah for a trip to the Rose Bowl. The Beavers are 5-6 and need a victory to achieve bowl eligibility. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but what about the points?? 19 & a half is a lot…but I’m rolling the dice and taking the home favorites to cover. Zach agrees. He likes the Ducks to rebound from that heartbreaking loss and win this one in a blowout.

My Pick:     Oregon

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

 

Clemson (-27)             at                South Carolina

Has Clemson actually played anyone other than Texas A&M?? Why are they in the playoff conversation?? I was under the impression that what happened last year isn’t supposed to matter, but clearly the committee takes reputation into account. Having said that, I don’t think South Carolina can pull off another upset like they did against Georgia back in October, but can they stay within four TDs?? The Gamecocks have the home field, and if they have a shred of pride & an ounce of fight left in them I surely hope they can atleast keep it respectable. Zach thinks Clemson is overrated but concedes that they will be in the playoff. With that in mind he foresees Dabo Swinney calling off the dogs and playing conservatively in the second half.

My Pick:     South Carolina

Z’s Pick:     South Carolina

 

 

 

 

Arizona               at                Arizona State (-13.5)

We were all over our pal Herm Edwards and his early season success with the Sun Devils, but they’ve kind of fallen off a bit in the past couple of months…until last week’s huge upset of Oregon. At 6-5 State has already achieved bowl eligibility, while the 4-7 Wildcats aren’t going anywhere but home after this game. They call this the Duel in the Desert, but I don’t anticipate much of a contest. It might be fairly close for 2 or 3 quarters, but I think State is clearly the superior team and will win easily. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Arizona State

Z’s Pick:     Arizona State

 

 

 

 

Wisconsin (-2.5)                            at                         Minnesota

There are games that will get more attention, but we shouldn’t overlook the Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe, a rivalry that goes back 128 years. On top of the long history this year’s contest features two teams hoping for a Top Ten finish, even if it is likely they’ll both miss the playoff. The winner will receive the opportunity to get beaten by Ohio St. in the Big Ten title game, but both teams will land in very nice bowl locations. The Badgers are 9-2 and have to be kicking themselves for that close October loss to Illinois. The 9-2 Gophers were an early playoff contender, but losing at Iowa a couple of weeks ago killed that dream. I’m predicting a good old-fashioned slugfest…classic smashmouth football. In that case I like Wisconsin’s offensive line to wear down the opposition and snag a win in the 4th quarter. Zach agrees and thinks Wisconsin will ride Heisman Trophy candidate & the nation’s second leading rusher Jonathan Taylor to victory.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:     Wisconsin

 

 

 

Oklahoma (-13)           at                Oklahoma State

They call this game Bedlam, and that could be the case if the Cowboys pull off the upset at home. For some reason there are still a few talking heads who seem to believe that the Sooners have a shot to make the playoff. Anything is possible, but they’d need to have three teams currently ranked above them fall. One definitely will (the loser of the SEC title game). Two is possible. Three is probably asking too much. Nevertheless, they do have a date with Baylor in the Big 12 title game, and finishing the season with two big wins could impress the committee. State has shown me no reason to believe that they can hang with their in-state rival, so I think this is going to be a rather easy win for the road favorites. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Oklahoma

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma

 

 

 

 

Alabama (-3.5)             at                Auburn

The Iron Bowl is always entertaining, but when there is something on the line besides bragging rights it’s even more fun. I’ve always thought that the playoff committee would do everything they possibly could to get the Tide into the playoff no matter what, and this season is no exception. Georgia will meet LSU in the SEC title game, but since ‘Bama is currently ranked fifth it feels like that fourth spot will come down to Utah (if they win the Pac 12 championship), maybe Oklahoma, possibly the loser of the SEC championship (especially if that is LSU)…and Alabama. In that scenario don’t be surprised if Nick Saban gets an early Christmas gift. But…but…they have to take care of business this week first and that’s easier said than done. Auburn is 8-3 but all three losses have come in the past six weeks. I really don’t know what to expect, but I think it’ll come down to the final five minutes and be decided by less than a field goal. Conversely, Zach thinks ‘Bama will be able to run the ball and get a decisive win.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Alabama

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 14

Our record setting round of bonus picks didn’t really prove all that much last week. Zach (9-8) lost out to myself (10-7) largely due to his misguided Michigan loyalty, but otherwise it’s basically just more mediocrity from us both. We are still focusing exclusively on college football because this is Championship Week when conference titles will be won & lost and the playoff picture will finally work itself out.

My Season:        42-44

Z’s Season:        36-50

 

 

 

 

 

 

Utah                              vs.              Washington (-5.5)

Pac 12 Championship (Santa Clara, CA)

I’m excited because this is a Friday night game and I’ll get to catch the last quarter or so at work. The Huskies upset in-state rival Washington St. last weekend, while the Utes are riding a three game winning streak after a hard fought battle against BYU a week ago. The Vibes are telling me that Washington has the momentum coming into this game, so that’s the way I’m going to lean. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Washington

Z’s Pick:     Washington

 

 

 

Texas                  vs.              Oklahoma (-7.5)

Big 12 Championship (Arlington, TX)

I feel like I should be more interested in this one, but I’m having a hard time giving a damn because I really wanted my WV Mountaineers to be playing in the game. If the Sooners win they may find themselves in the playoff…or not. Who knows?? This is a rematch of a game that took place a couple of months ago, when Texas prevailed by a just a field goal in a high scoring shootout. I’d definitely take the over in this one if you’re into that kind of thing, but with so much at stake I expect a different outcome, and so does Zach.

My Pick:     Oklahoma

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma

 

 

 

Memphis            at                Central Florida (-4.5)

American Athletic Championship

The college football community continues to give the Knights zero respect, which may or may not be valid. All I know is that they haven’t lost a game in two years, which is pretty doggone impressive. This is one of the rare conference title games not played on a neutral field, which means UCF is at home. I am somewhat surprised the points aren’t atleast a touchdown or more, but obviously there are questions since UCF starting quarterback McKenzie Milton had his season ended prematurely with a catastrophic knee injury. However, that injury occurred in the first half of last week’s game and the Knights went on to a fairly easy 38-10 win, so clearly the team has talent beyond Milton. I see no reason to expect an upset in this situation. Zach expects a high scoring nail biter but thinks the favorites will win by a touchdown.

My Pick:     UCF

Z’s Pick:     UCF

 

 

 

Alabama (-13.5)          vs.              Georgia

SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA)

I am beyond bored by the idea of this game. I believe ‘Bama is in the playoff win or lose. Georgia would certainly be in with a win, but there is some chatter that they could still make it even with a loss, which is absurd. If that actually happens they need to just scrap the entire playoff system. I have zero interest in watching and don’t care enough to even make a pick. Zach likes the Tide to roll…sort of. He believes the Bulldogs will be pumped up early and keep it close, but Alabama will prevail. He just doesn’t think they’ll cover the points.

My Pick:     I Don’t Care

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

 

Clemson (-25.5)          vs.              Pitt

ACC Championship (Charlotte, NC)

Yeah…you’re season is over sPitt (except for a meaningless bowl game in which they’ll get throttled). There is no way on God’s green Earth Clemson is losing this game. Will the Tigers cover the points?? Hell, I hope they double it. Conversely, Zach doesn’t like the spread at all. He thinks the Panthers will keep things close until the fourth quarter before ultimately falling short.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Pitt

 

 

 

 

Fresno State               at                Boise State (-2.5)

Mountain West Championship

Fresno has had a nice ten win season, but they aren’t beating Boise on the blue turf. I’m kind of ticked that they’re kicking off at 7:45pm EST Saturday night. The charm of the west coast games is that I can usually watch them at work late at night, but I guess they’re trying to get more exposure or something. Zach likes the Broncos to win easily.

My Pick:     Boise St.

Z’s Pick:     Boise St.

 

 

 

Northwestern              vs.              Ohio State (-12.5)

Big Ten Championship (Indianapolis, IN)

It’s not that this is the best game of the weekend because I expect the Buckeyes to win easily, but it is probably the most important contest to keep an eye on. In the battle for an elusive playoff spot the talking heads are all about “style points”. Personally I think beating the snot out of Michigan by three TDs and hanging 62 points on what was supposed to be a stout defense was remarkable, but a similarly dominant performance this week is probably necessary. Zach is still a bit churlish about that beatdown his Wolverines took, so he’s picking the Wildcats to win in overtime.

My Pick:     Ohio St.

Z’s Pick:     Northwestern

2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 9

The first College Football Playoff rankings will be released next week, but we already have a pretty good idea about the teams…probably about a dozen at the moment…that are a legit part of the debate. And while all of that adds a layer of interest to the conversation I must admit that it creates an odd dynamic for these picks since I don’t really want to focus on just a handful of teams over & over again for the next several weeks. We have the same issue with the NFL because, while they are only at the mid-point of the season, the difference between contenders & pretenders is becoming clear. As fans it is expected that we pay more attention to good teams and competitive matchups, but on the other hand I don’t want to bore Zach, myself, & whoever else might be out there reading our silly little opinions. At any rate, we’ll do the best we can, and hopefully going forward that’ll mean being better than last week. I went 2-3, while Zach was 1-4 (a half point made the difference in the Jets-Dolphins game). Overall we are both still keeping our heads above water, but I think we need to wash the nasty taste of a subpar week out of our mouths with some bonus picks today. You’re welcome.

My Season:  25-22

Z’s Season:   24-23

 

 

 

 

 

Miami (FL) (-20.5)        at      North Carolina

Is The U back?? Possibly. Right now the ‘Canes are 6-0 and in the Top Ten, but they still have home games against Virginia Tech & Notre Dame, so we’ll see. The 1-7 Tar Heels can only hope that Miami is looking ahead to those two games and isn’t prepared for this one, which seems unlikely. I am typically uncomfortable with three touchdown point spreads, but I think I’m okay with it for this particular game. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Miami (FL)

Z’s Pick:     Miami (FL)

 

 

Wisconsin (-26.5)       at      Illinois

The Big Ten has Ohio St., Penn St., & Michigan, so up until now no one has paid much attention to the 7-0 Badgers. Well…except whoever votes in the polls since they are in the Top 5. Wisconsin has a very real chance to make it into the playoff, especially since Michigan isn’t living up to the hype and the other two previously mentioned teams aren’t on the schedule. Conversely, the 2-5 Illini have lost five straight after unimpressive victories over inferior opponents to begin the season. Wisconsin will win this game, but by how much?? I’m feeling frisky, so let’s roll the dice on another huge point spread. Zach isn’t sold on Wisconsin, but he believes they’ll win this game…just not by 26 points.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:     Illinois

 

 

Georgia (-14)               vs.    Florida

For decades this rivalry was known as The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, but the PC Police nixed that moniker several years ago, atleast on an official basis. I’m sure fans & alumni of both schools still call it that. Anyway, it is a “neutral” site game played in Jacksonville, FL, which is about 71 miles from Gainesville, FL and over 300 miles from Athens, GA. I guess they define neutral differently in The South. The 7-0 Bulldogs are serious playoff contenders and seem to be headed toward a clash with Alabama in the SEC title game. The Gators are 3-3…far below expectations. I assume Florida will finish the season with 7 or 8 wins and play in some December bowl game that no one will watch, but let’s be honest…this is their championship game. They would love nothing more than to torpedo Georgia’s National Championship dreams. Do I think that’ll happen?? No, but they’ll give it a good try at home in The Swamp and probably keep it closer than two TDs. Zach isn’t totally sold on Georgia either and thinks they haven’t really been tested yet, but he doesn’t believe the Gators will be much competition either.

My Pick:     Florida

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

UCLA                            at      Washington (-17.5)

Who will emerge at the top of the Pac 12, and will that team be included in the playoff?? The answers…at this stage…are “Who knows??” and “It’s not looking good”. The Huskies are 6-1 and in a dog fight to win their division. The 4-3 Bruins have not bounced back from a putrid 2016 nearly as well as I thought they would, even though QB Josh Rosen has remained healthy. If this game were being played in Los Angeles I’d pick the underdogs in a heartbeat, but it’s not. I’m kind of ticked off that the game isn’t scheduled for prime time (late at night here on the East Coast) so I could have something to entertain me at work that night, but that’s life. I might regret it, but I’m going to go with my gut and believe in UCLA to keep it competitive. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     UCLA

Z’s Pick:     UCLA

 

 

Houston                       at      South Florida (-10.5)

According to NCAA post-season rules the highest ranked team from the five “lower” conferences gets thrown a bone…an opportunity to play in one of the bigtime New Year’s bowl games. It is the college football equivalent of affirmative action. What they really should do is split Division 1-A, aka the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) into two separate divisions, each with its own national title, but that’s a discussion for another day. Right now South Florida, Central Florida, & Memphis are contenders for that spot. The 7-0 Bulls have had one game cancelled and one rescheduled because of hurricanes, but the cancelled game was against a 1-AA/FCS opponent so it doesn’t really matter. Meanwhile, the 4-3 Cougars have fallen off just a bit under new head coach Major Applewhite. I suspect that’ll change in the future, but for now they’ll have to take their lumps. I ranked South Florida in my pre-season Top Ten, and I think they can still get there if they keep on winning, which I expect they’ll do. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     South Florida

Z’s Pick:     South Florida

 

 

Utah (-3.5)                    at      Oregon

I expect this game to be sneaky good. The Utes have lost three straight games after beginning the season with four wins. The 4-4 Ducks are also on a three game losing streak. Obviously neither team is going to win the conference, but they can play the spoiler role and also position themselves for a lovely tropical bowl location. I think 100+ points collectively will be scored, and I’m going to pick the underdogs to get the job done at home. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Oregon

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

Penn State                   at      Ohio State (-6.5)

This is it. This is the big one. The greatest game ever…atleast for this week. The Nittany Lions are 7-0, ranked #2 in the country, a shoe-in to play in the Big Ten title game, and solidly in the college football playoff. However, all of that could change with a loss at The Horseshoe in Columbus. After an early season loss to Oklahoma the Buckeyes have rebounded and currently stand at 6-1, still have a shot to play in the conference championship game, and at #6 in the polls could easily vault back into playoff contention. I know Ohio St. has the home field, but I am still surprised that they are favored by a touchdown. That is either wicked awesome respect for the Buckeyes, or total disregard for Penn St. Perhaps it’s a little of both. In my pre-season poll I opined that if the Lions could split games against Ohio St. and Michigan they’d be national title contenders. That may have been too optimistic. They took care of the Wolverines last weekend, but a loss in this game would likely eliminate any playoff hopes. Conversely, I predicted that Ohio St.’s playoff aspirations would be crushed by either Penn St. or Michigan. I honestly didn’t think they’d lose to Oklahoma. So how will this game shake out?? The home field advantage is undeniable, and I’m not sure Penn St. can get “up” two weeks in a row. I’m not confident at all choosing either way, but I will ride the wave of my pre-season forecast. Zach’s disdain for Ohio St. is limitless and actually a bit tedious at this point lol.

My Pick:     Penn St.

Z’s Pick:     Penn St.

 

 

Oakland    at      Buffalo (-2.5)

These are two of the more surprising teams in the NFL…for completely different reasons. The Raiders are 3-4 and already way behind the proverbial eight ball in their division. Conversely, the 4-2 Bills are only a half-game behind the Patriots. I don’t think it’d be out of line to say that this is a battle for a wildcard spot in the playoffs. Is Buffalo for real?? Can Oakland battle back from an uneven start and prove they’re the legit contender many thought they’d be?? I’m pretty stubborn when it comes to such matters. If the Bills are really that good this is the time to prove it, but I still think the Raiders are the better team. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Oakland

 

 

Houston   at      Seattle (-6)

The 3-3 Texans are coming out of their bye week, and I think they are better than their record would indicate. That being said, the 4-2 Seahawks are pretty darn good too…especially at home. I love Houston QB Deshaun Watson, and I’ll be rooting for him in this game. However, I think it might be a little too much to ask a rookie to go into Seattle and win. Zach is a little suspicious of Seattle’s offensive line and thinks that might be enough for Houston’s defense to get the job done. I wouldn’t be mad if he’s right.

My Pick:     Seattle

Z’s Pick:     Houston