Nebraska Cornhuskers

2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 4

So let’s talk about the new 12 team College Football Playoff. It will be implemented sometime between 2024 & 2026 and feature the six highest ranked conference champions & six at large teams. One can assume that all of the Power 5 conference champs (SEC, ACC, Big Ten, PAC 12, & Big 12) will almost always be in, as well as atleast one champ from the Other 5 conferences (AAC, C-USA, Mountain West, MAC, & Sun Belt). Occasionally a second of those other conference champions might snag a spot, but it is likely that most of the time the at large berths will be given to teams (most often conference runners up) in the Power 5 (and Notre Dame if they remain independent). The dynamics of the debate will change, but we’ll probably still argue about whether a spot should go to the MAC Champion or the 3rd place team in the Big Ten. The top four teams will receive a first round bye, and both the quarter & semi finals will incorporate existing bowl games. There’s a lot to unpack, but this isn’t the time because that’s not why you’re here.

My Season: 8-11

Zach’s Season: 11-8

Oklahoma (-11.5) at Nebraska

I’m old enough to remember the Big 8 Conference, which won 11 national titles in less than a half century. Six of those championships were won by the Sooners, four by the Cornhuskers. Oklahoma has mostly maintained a high level of success, although an imminent move to the SEC may change that. Conversely, Nebraska has gotten lost in the shuffle since joining the Big Ten over a decade ago, and now they just fired their head coach after an embarrassing loss to Georgia Southern. I’m not expecting this to be much of a contest, although the home team might put up a fight for awhile. Ultimately I believe it’ll be a blowout. Zach notes that Oklahoma doesn’t seem to be as good as they’ve been in the recent past, but agrees they should win this game easily.

My Pick: Oklahoma

Z’s Pick: Oklahoma

BYU at Oregon (-3.5)

Typically I like to choose games involving different teams from week to week, but we’re going back to back with BYU because their schedule is really interesting. The Cougars got the overtime victory over Baylor last weekend, but things don’t get any easier. The Ducks have the home field and rebounded from getting crushed in the season opener at Georgia by beating up Eastern Washington. One of these teams will solidify their position in the Top 20, while the loser may fall from the rankings altogether for the time being. In my preseason poll I ranked BYU 6th & Oregon 22nd, but specifically stated that I didn’t expect BYU to beat Oregon on the road. Zach believes Oregon might be a bit overrated & thinks the underdogs can get the job done.

My Pick: Oregon

Z’s Pick: BYU

Miami (FL) at Texas A&M (-5.5)

I am admittedly biased and still basking in the glow of my Marshall Thundering Herd going into South Bend and defeating Notre Dame in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus. However, there was another huge upset that we shouldn’t overlook…Appalachian St. overcoming The 12th Man in College Station and making A&M boosters question if that ten year, $75 million contract they gave to Jimbo Fisher a few years ago was a good idea. As I mentioned in the preseason, “finishing third in the division simply isn’t good enough”, so his seat is pretty damn hot…to the point that this almost feels like a must win. Conversely, the ‘Canes have cruised in the first two games, but now they venture out of Florida and into the fire. Will the Aggies be pissed off and take out their frustrations on Miami?? Or will the visitors put another nail in Jimbo’s maroon coffin?? Nothing would surprise me, but I think A&M is the safe pick. Zach thinks last week’s debacle will motivate rather than demoralize the Aggies and likes then to get the job done.

My Pick: Texas A&M

Z’s Pick: Texas A&M

Indianapolis(-4.5) at Jacksonville

The Colts came out of their season opener at Houston with a tie, but it sure feels more like a loss. Meanwhile, the Jags lost to Washington but likely saw a lot of positives to hang onto going forward. I don’t have big expectations for either team this season, but Indy probably wins this game if they control time of possession & Jonathan Taylor racks up anywhere close to the 161 yards rushing he had last week. Zach foresees a close game and thinks Jax will atleast cover the points or maybe win outright.

My Pick: Indianapolis

Z’s Pick: Jacksonville

Cincinnati (-8) at Dallas

Let’s be honest…the Bengals outplayed my Steelers, but they still lost. Cincy had more passing yards, more rushing yards, half as many penalty yards, three times as many first downs, and dominated time of possession, but lost because of five turnovers & Joe Burrow being sacked seven times. They allegedly fixed their offensive line in the offseason, but it sure didn’t seem like it last weekend. The Cowboys not only lost to Tampa, but QB Dak Prescott is out with an injured thumb. Dallas has the home field, and the points concern me a bit (I could see this being one of those 12-6 games where both offenses are completely impotent), but it’s a go big or go home moment for me, and I’ve got to lean toward the road favorites. Zach thinks Joe Burrow will rebound nicely and have a big game.

My Pick: Cincinnati

Z’s Pick: Cincinnati

2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 1

They’re calling this Week 0 in college football circles, probably because it’s not a full schedule and none of the matchups are that appealing. However, we play by our own rules here, and I choose to believe that a few games might turn out to be more entertaining than anyone thought they’d be. Ultimately any football is better than no football at all, right?? We are glad to be back for another season, and in case y’all need your memory refreshed I scored the overall victory last year with a 57-69 mark, while Zach was 49-77. Obviously we’d both like to improve this season, but we’ll see how it goes. Enjoy.

Nebraska (-12) vs. Northwestern

When I was a kid the Cornhuskers were a force to be reckoned with, winning three national titles as recently as the mid 1990’s. However, they haven’t had a ten win season in a decade and haven’t posted a winning record since 2016. Moving to the Big Ten in 2011 probably wasn’t the smartest decision. Head coach Scott Frost is 15-29 in four years at the helm, and I have to think he needs to do much better this season. Conversely, the Wildcats has had some solid years since Pat Fitgerald became the coach in 2006, although they’ve finished 3-9 two of the past three seasons. I’m intrigued by the fact that the game is being played in Dublin. It’s a 12:30pm kickoff here, meaning that it’ll be 5:30pm in Ireland. The points scare me a bit, but I’m rolling with the favorites. Zach agrees that Frost is on the hot seat and thinks Nebraska will win, but foresees a close contest.

My Pick: Nebraska

Z’s Pick: Northwestern

Charlotte at Florida Atlantic (-7.5)

It’s a battle of C-USA foes, which doesn’t matter to me anymore since my Thundering Herd has migrated to the Sun Belt Conference. I suppose I’ll still watch the game though if I’m not doing anything more exciting Saturday night. The 49ers have only had one winning season since resurrecting the football program in 2013, while the Owls had a couple of good years under Lane Kiffin until he bolted for greener pastures. Willie Taggart enters his third year with only a 10-14 overall record in Boca Raton. Atlantic has the home field, and I think they’ll win…by less than a touchdown. Conversely, Zach thinks the home team’s high powered offense will lead them to a decisive victory.

My Pick: Charlotte

Z’s Pick: Florida Atlantic

Wyoming at Illinois (-10)

Occasionally these two programs will have a successful campaign, but they’ve both been mediocre at best in recent years. The Cowboys have won ten games since 1996, while the Illini last achieved that mark in 2001. I foresee a close, hard fought game decided late in the 4th quarter by a turnover or fantastic special teams play. Zach thinks Wyoming will win easily.

My Pick: Illinois

Z’s Pick: Wyoming

North Texas (-1) at Texas-El Paso

Don’t be fooled…they may both be located in the state of Texas, but the two schools are about a nine hour drive apart. Does that matter?? Not really…I just thought it was interesting. The Mean Green had a couple of nine win seasons not long ago, but have had losing records three years in a row. The Miners have only won more than six games twice in the past decade. I will not be watching this game since it is only available on an obscure streaming platform I won’t bother downloading. It’s essentially a pick ‘em and in those situations I like the home team. Zach likes North’s passing game to rack up the points.

My Pick: UTEP

Z’s Pick: North Texas

Vanderbilt (-6.5) at Hawaii

A few years ago I would have been pumped for this game because it kicks off at 10:30pm on the CBS Sports Network. Sadly it seems that I am far less of a night owl than I once was, so whether or not I make it thru the entire contest is a real toss up. At any rate, the Commodores are the forgotten member of the SEC for a reason…they’ve only had a winning record twice in the past decade and won five games total in the previous three seasons. The Rainbow Warriors aren’t great either, but they did have a ten win season as recently as 2019. Perhaps the oddsmakers know something the rest of us don’t, but I’m going with the home underdogs. Conversely, Zach doesn’t like Hawaii’s terrible defense and sees Vandy getting the easy win.

My Pick: Hawaii

Z’s Pick: Vanderbilt

2019 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

First things first…I am indeed aware that the college football season begins tonight when the Miami Hurricanes visit the Florida Gators. I usually get these rankings published earlier in August, but…well, that didn’t happen. You’re not interested in my excuses and I’m not really into making any, so we’ll just go with the flow. I don’t think the Canes’ nor the Gators will factor significantly into how things play out, so it’s all good. We know that out of 130 FBS football teams only 65 “power” conference teams (including “independent” Notre Dame) have any shot at the national title, and this season it feels like it’s a ten team race at best. As a fan I am still entertained by watching games, but I have to admit that the foregone conclusion that the playoff has become sort of harshes my football buzz. I need underdogs. I need upsets. I need some semblance of parity. I need a little variety from year to year. One of the charms of college football has always been that each season players graduate and new players come in, which means that every year is different…except nowadays its seems like nothing much changes. There have always been dominant programs, but there were still cycles wherein some teams would rise for a couple of years while others fell off a bit. That yin & yang was part of the fun. I hope that happens this season. I hope a team or two that everyone expects to win a lot of games unexpectedly loses a few. I hope a few teams that no one sees coming win 10+ games and challenge for conference titles. I hope…but I won’t hold my breath. Still, it’s nice to have football back.

25 Virginia Tech

Last Season: 6-7

Key Games: 10/5 @Miami, 11/2 @Notre Dame, 11/23 vs. Pitt

This season will go one of two ways for the Hokies. Either they’ll have another miserable losing season and head coach Justin Fuentes will be on the hot seat…or they’ll rebound with 8 or 9 wins and have a legit shot to win a conference title in a rather weak ACC. Obviously I lean toward the latter scenario.

24 Auburn

Last Season: 8-5

Key Games: 8/31 vs. Oregon, 9/21 @Texas A&M, 11/16 vs. Georgia, 11/30 vs. Alabama

Here’s the thing about the SEC. Atleast half the conference is going to get some attention from the talking heads early in the season because…well, that’s just how it is. Heck, I have five SEC teams in these rankings, and that’s me being conservative. But logic dictates that only a couple of those teams will really be elite. The rest will either fall flat & have disappointing seasons or fall short a few times and end up with a solid 8 or 9 win season. I think the Tigers will land in the latter category. The season opener against Oregon should be a good barometer of what we can expect.

23 Michigan State

Last Season: 7-6

Key Games: 9/14 vs. Arizona St., 10/5 @Ohio St., 10/12 @Wisconsin, 10/26 vs. Penn St., 11/16 @Michigan

Trips to Columbus & Ann Arbor don’t bode well for the Spartans Big Ten title hopes, but I believe they’ll rebound from a subpar 2018 and win nine games.

22 Central Florida

Last Season: 12-1

Key Games: 9/14 vs. Stanford, 9/21 @Pitt

The Knights hadn’t lost a game in two years until they ran into the LSU Tigers in the Fiesta Bowl. Do I expect more of the same this year?? Maybe. Out-of-conference games against Stanford & Pitt are important and could make a huge difference. It’s probably too much to ask UCF to go undefeated again, but I think a ten win season deserves some respect.

21 Army

Last Season: 11-2

Key Games: 9/7 @Michigan, 12/14 vs. Navy

Very few football fans pay attention to the Black Knights until the very end of the season when the Army-Navy Game has the spotlight all to itself, but Army has gone 21-5 in the past two years, which is quite impressive. I don’t think they’ll go into Ann Arbor and pull off an upset, but I don’t believe another ten win season is far-fetched.

20 Northwestern

Last Season: 9-5

Key Games: 8/31 @Stanford, 9/21 vs. Michigan St., 9/28 @Wisconsin, 10/5 @Nebraska, 10/18 vs. Ohio St., 10/26 vs. Iowa

Perhaps it’s the purple uniforms, or maybe it’s the fact that they were perennial underdogs when I was growing up but ten win seasons have now become fairly normal in Evanston. It might be the tenacity of former linebacker & current head coach Pat Fitzgerald. For some reason I have a soft spot for the Wildcats. This prediction could be an epic disaster since they’ve got to travel to Palo Alto to begin the season and also have road trips to Madison & Lincoln. However, if Northwestern can gut out a few upsets and win eight games I may be onto something.

19 Fresno State

Last Season: 12-2

Key Games: 8/31 @USC, 9/7 @Minnesota, 10/26 vs. Colorado St.

I’m a bit sad because my work schedule has changed yet again and I have to be in bed super early on Friday & Saturday nights so I can get up at 5am. That means that for the first time in many years I won’t get to watch hardly any late night west coast games. The Pac 12 gets all of the attention, but don’t forget about the Mountain West. It has become standard for Boise St. to get the infinitesimal amount of love left over for the MWC, but I believe the Bulldogs will emerge as the better team this year.

18 Michigan

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 9/21 @Wisconsin, 10/5 vs. Iowa, 10/19 @Penn St., 10/26 vs. Notre Dame, 11/16 vs. Michigan St., 11/0 vs. Ohio St.

Are patience wearing thin where Jim Harbaugh is concerned?? Possibly, but I still think he’ll ditch Michigan before Michigan cans him…and neither scenario may ever happen. This isn’t the early 20^th century anymore…everyone outside of the state of Alabama understands how difficult it is to win a national championship and knows it isn’t the only barometer for success. Harbaugh has won ten games in 3 out of 4 seasons leading the maize & Blue, which is pretty darn good. The one thing he has to do to quell any sort of rebellion: beat Ohio St. Now is the time. This is the year. The Wolverines could lose 3 or 4 other games and it won’t matter if they defeat the Buckeyes in The Big House in November.

17 Arizona State

Last Season: 7-6

Key Games: 9/14 @Michigan St., 10/19 @Utah, 11/9 vs. USC, 11/23 vs. Oregon

I’m a big fan of Sun Devils’ head coach Herm Edwards. He might be a better talking head than head coach, but I saw some flashes a year ago that leads me to believe that this is a team that could pull off a couple of upsets and sneak into the rankings.

16 Texas A&M

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 9/7@Clemson, 9/21 vs. Auburn, 10/12 vs. Alabama, 11/23 @Georgia, 11/30 @LSU

No team has more chances to affect the National Championship picture than the Aggies. All five key games noted above involve potential playoff contenders, so A&M has a unique opportunity to be the ultimate spoiler…or be embarrassingly inept. Entering Year 2 of the Jimbo Fisher era I believe they’ll continue to build a solid foundation that will eventually lead to playoff appearances in the near future.

15 Stanford

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 9/21 vs. Oregon, 10/5 vs. Washington, 11/16 @Washington St., 11/30 vs. Notre Dame

The Pac 12 is stacked, and it’ll be really interesting to see which team(s) emerge to lead the pack. Stanford has its biggest games at home, and that could lead to good things.

14 Nebraska

Last Season: 4-8

Key Games: 9/28 vs. Ohio St., 11/16 vs. Wisconsin, 11/29 vs. Iowa

I’m really going out on a limb. After back to back four win seasons the Cornhuskers enter Year 2 of the Scott Frost era, which means that noticeable improvement is expected. So does that mean going from losing seasons to bowl eligibility?? Or does it mean bursting back onto the scene with 8-10 wins?? The biggest games are at home, and just one upset might mean a huge turnaround for the program.

13 LSU

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 9/7 @Texas, 10/12 vs. Florida, 10/26 vs. Auburn, 11/9 @Alabama, 11/30 vs. Texas A&M

Ed Orgeron now seems to be firmly entrenched as the Bayou Bengals’ head coach, and that kind of stability provides a real sense of freedom for a program. A split against the four noted conference foes would be fantastic, but an early season non-conference battle at Texas could be the key to LSU’s entire season.

12 Utah

Last Season: 9-5

Key Games: 8/29 @BYU, 9/20 @USC, 9/28 vs. Washington St., 10/19 vs. Arizona St., 11/2 @Washington

Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to figuring out the Pac 12, but the Utes seem to be getting a lot of love. Anyone who has spent any time reading sports related content here at The Manofesto will recall my affection for BYU, which is why I consider that an important in-state contest for Utah even though BYU has only won eleven total games the past two years. I’m not sure what to think about Southern Cal or the two Washington teams…all three could make these rankings look silly a few months from now. One thing is for sure…the Utes are going to need to have some big road wins to have a successful season.

11 Iowa State

Last Season: 8-5

Key Games: 9/14 vs. Iowa, 11/9 @Oklahoma, 11/16 vs. Texas

Everybody loves to yap about Oklahoma & Texas, but Big 12 fans know not to sleep on the Cyclones. They’ve won eight games in each of the last two seasons, and with QB Brock Purdy entering his sophomore year I think bigger things await. I am predicting that they’ll upset either the Sooners or the Longhorns and finish third in the conference.

10 Wisconsin

Last Season: 8-5

Key Games: 9/21 vs. Michigan, 10/12 vs. Michigan St., 10/26 @Ohio St.

The bottom line is this…the Badgers have to upset one of the two Michigan teams because going into The Horseshoe & beating Ohio St. in October might be too much to expect. Otherwise, I expect a solid 8-10 win season, which is par for the course.

9 Southern California

Last Season: 5-7

Key Games: 9/7 vs. Stanford, 9/20 vs. Utah, 9/28 @Washington, 10/12 @Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Oregon

I’m doing it…I’m rolling the dice on the Trojans!! I’m not sure what the heck happened a year ago, but it was USC’s first losing season in eighteen years. Was it an anomaly?? Or was 2018 indicative of a backward slide that will continue for the foreseeable future?? Obviously I’m betting on the former, and in the words of Billy Joel I’ll walk away a fool or a king.

8 Texas

Last Season: 10-4

Key Games: 9/7 vs. LSU, 10/12 vs. Oklahoma, 11/16 @Iowa St.

The long road back to relevancy is about as complete as one can expect nowadays…all they need to do now is maintain consistency. A losing or even mediocre season now would be disastrous for a program that’s taken almost a decade to rebuild. Most “experts” expect the Big 12 to come down to Texas & Oklahoma, so the Red River Shootout in mid-October will be a huge game, but the Longhorns shouldn’t overlook Iowa St. just a month later.

7 Notre Dame

Last Season: 12-1

Key Games: 9/21 @Georgia, 10/12 vs. USC, 10/26 @Michigan, 11/30 @Stanford

Coming off a playoff season expectations are high in South Bend, but the schedule is brutal. One slip will knock them out of contention, and with big road games at Georgia, Michigan, & Stanford I’d be stunned to see the Irish go undefeated.

6 Ohio State

Last Season: 13-1

Key Games: 9/28 @Nebraska, 10/5 vs. Michigan St., 10/26 vs. Wisconsin, 11/23 vs. Penn St., 11/30 @ Michigan

Ohio St. is a football factory that recruits elite athletes and churns out winning seasons as easily as you & I change socks in the morning. However, the dividing line for such teams is whether they win 9/10 games and finish highly ranked or go undefeated and contend for a playoff spot. I don’t think there will be a significant dropoff under new head coach Ryan Day, and perhaps it is even positive for the program to be rid of the various distractions that accompanied former coach Urban Meyer. However, I don’t think you’ll see the Buckeyes in the playoff, and they might even suffer a loss to Michigan.

5 Oregon

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 8/31 @Auburn, 9/21 @Stanford, 10/19 @Washington, 11/2 @USC

Mario Cristobal started his reign as the Ducks’ head coach with a nine win season, so now anticipation is at a fever pitch in Eugene. A non-conference battle with Auburn to kick things off is a neutral site game at The Palace in Dallas. I don’t necessarily think that game will make or break either team’s season, but the winner will certainly be headed on an upward trajectory. I’m not sure what to make of the Pac 12 quite yet, but if Oregon can emerge from the pack they just might find themselves in playoff contention.

4 Alabama

Last Season: 14-1

Key Games: 10/12 @Texas A&M, 11/9 vs. LSU, 11/30 @Auburn

I don’t know about y’all, but ‘Bama has become a team I love to see lose. I’m just really over the whole thing. I know I should root for fellow West Virginian Nick Saban, but I just can’t. I’m an underdog kind of guy and The Tide has evolved into The Evil Empire. However, a year ago I opined that Alabama might have to lose as many as three games for the powers-that-be to leave them out of the playoff. We know for sure that they don’t need to win the SEC or even play in the title game. So here is how I see it going down. I think A&M and LSU will both provide legit tests for ‘Bama, but they’ll go into the SEC Championship ranked #1 or #2 in the country, lose the title game to Georgia, and still make the playoff.

3 Oklahoma

Last Season: 12-2

Key Games: 10-12 vs. Texas, 11/9 vs. Iowa St., 11/30 @Oklahoma St.

Sooners’ head coach Lincoln Riley…at just 35 years old…has made a believer out of me. Two straight 12 win seasons. Two consecutive Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks. With former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts transferring in to lead the offense I see no reason to believe that Oklahoma won’t win the Red River Shootout and claim another conference title. The Big 12 doesn’t get as much respect as the other “power” conferences, and it would probably be easy for the playoff committee to squeeze the Sooners out…but I don’t believe that’ll happen this season.

2 Georgia

Last Season: 11-3

Key Games: 9/21 vs. Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Florida, 11/16 @Auburn, 11/23 vs. Texas A&M

Beating Notre Dame in September is an absolute must for the Bulldogs’ playoff hopes, but fortunately it’s a home game. I’m not buying into any Florida hype, and by late November I think tough schedules will have taken their toll on Auburn and A&M. I also believe Georgia will win the SEC Championship. I would much rather see a Clemson-Georgia National Championship versus any matchup involving Alabama.

1 Clemson

Last Season: 15-0

Key Games: 9/7 vs. Texas A&M

Champion wrestler Ric Flair used to say “to be The Man you’ve got to beat The Man”, and until someone steps up & knocks the Tigers from their perch there’s no other choice for the #1 spot. When I look at the schedule it looks like A&M is the only legit threat they face in the regular season, and the playoff committee hasn’t penalized Clemson in the past for the relative weakness of the ACC so it would be inconsistent to do so now. Most “experts” seem to recognize that Clemson is on a whole other level at the moment, and QB Trevor Lawrence is special. He’s my favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 10

Sorry folks…running behind so this is going to be quick & dirty. Lots going on in my world. I’m not used to so much activity. Last week I was 6-3, while Zach was 3-6. More than most weeks in recent memory we had several games decided by the point spread…teams winning but not covering. That’s exactly why we have that added layer of strategery. It makes things that much more interesting. The college football schedule is kind of prosaic this week, so we’re leaning a little more on the NFL. I try my best not to be repetitive by choosing games involving the same teams every week, although it is undeniable that some teams are just more interesting and play better opponents than others.

My Season: 28-27

Z’s Season: 19-37

Alabama (-7.5) at LSU

Zach & I both agree that the Tide are on another level. Actually they have almost become boring since they tend to bulldoze opposing teams with the outcome never really in doubt. I don’t anticipate anything different even with this game being in Baton Rouge. I wouldn’t mind being wrong.

My Pick: Alabama

Z’s Pick: Alabama

Nebraska at Ohio St. (-17.5)

This is another point spread situation. I don’t think the Buckeyes lose at The Horseshoe. However, as Penn St. proved, Ohio St. isn’t infallible. Nebraska is coming off of a tough overtime loss, but they still have a lot to fight for, including a spot in the Big Ten (which has 14 teams) title game. At the very least I expect a spirited effort from the Cornhuskers and a fairly close game. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Nebraska

Z’s Pick: Nebraska

NY Jets at Miami (-3.5)

Neither team has any chance whatsoever to overtake New England in the AFC East, and the playoffs are a pipe dream. Both teams would be lucky to finish with a winning record. But somehow Jets/Dolphins games always seem to be exciting & fun to watch, going all the way back to my childhood. I’m going to roll the dice on an upset just for the hell of it. Conversely, Zach likes the Dolphins’ rushing attack, which is actually better without recently retired Arian Foster.

My Pick: NY Jets

Z’s Pick: Miami

New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco

Neither of these teams are going to the playoffs either. The Saints have a chance to finish around the .500 mark, but with Atlanta running away with their division that’s just not good enough. The Niners are probably in the conversation for the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft, a choice one would assume they’d use on a quarterback. ‘Frisco doesn’t even get the respect of the obligatory home field bump from the oddsmakers…probably because they don’t deserve it. Zach has concerns about N’awleans’ inconsistency, but even less faith that ‘Frisco can field a competent professional football team.

My Pick: New Orleans

Z’s Pick: New Orleans

Denver at Oakland (-1)

QB Derek Carr has the Raiders riding high, topping their division deep into the season for the first time in several years. But the Broncos are right there with them. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, and it’s a big one for both teams, with the winner sitting in the post-season driver’s seat and the loser in a wildcard spot and facing a possible playoff game at New England. I like the Broncos’ defense, but I think Carr figures out a way to keep it close to set up a Sebastian Janikowski game winning field goal. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Oakland

Z’s Pick: Oakland

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 9

It wasn’t my intention to do bonus picks again so soon, but both the college & NFL schedules are chockful of intriguing matchups and I just can’t resist. Last week was a rough one for yours truly, as I could only muster a record of 1-4, while Zach fared a little better at 2-3. Obviously neither of us have a bright future in the prognostication arts, but we’ll have fun trying.

My Season: 22-24

Z’s Season: 16-31

California at USC (-15.5)

The Bears come into this game 4-3, but it must be noted that two of those losses were by 5 points or less, and they’ve split the last two games in overtime. Meanwhile, the Trojans have an identical 4-3 record but are riding a three game winning streak. This is a Thursday night contest, and while it is a home game for Southern Cal the 2 TD+ spread seems a bit much. I think it’ll be closer and Zach agrees.

My Pick: California

Z’s Pick: California

Michigan (-24) at Michigan St.

A year ago the Spartans escaped with a thrilling last second victory after a touchdown on a fumbled punt. But that team was undefeated and would go on to play in the national playoff semifinal. In 2016 the tables have been turned. The Wolverines are undefeated and ranked #2 in the country while State has lost five straight to stand at 2-5. I am not quite sure what has happened in East Lansing outside of the normal ebb & flow of players graduating & new ones stepping up take those spots, but obviously things have taken a bad turn. Conversely, Jim Harbaugh has coached his alma mater back to relevancy much quicker than I anticipated, although few are really shocked that they have been successful. I’d be surprised if the favorites lost, but I’d be almost as surprised if Sparty didn’t show some pride in defending their home field. Zach is a big Michigan fan but he agrees.

My Pick: Michigan St.

Z’s Pick: Michigan St.

Baylor (-3) at Texas

I thought that it’d be Baylor having a rough year given their…eventful…offseason, while Texas would show some life with Charlie Strong’s job on the line. However the opposite has happened thus far. The Bears are 6-0 and have barely been tested. The Longhorns are 3-4 and probably already have a list of candidates to replace Strong. I’d LOVE to pick the upset…but I just can’t pull the trigger, even with the game being played in Austin. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Baylor

Z’s Pick: Baylor

Washington (-10) at Utah

The Huskies are a very quiet 7-0, ranked 4^th in the polls, & look like a solid playoff team unless they stumble down the stretch. Could that misstep come against the 7-1 Utes in Salt Lake City?? I think it is possible. At the very least I am uncomfortable with a double digit point spread. Zach has no issues with the spread. He thinks it’ll be close for three quarters but Washington will take over in the end.

My Pick: Utah

Z’s Pick: Washington

Nebraska at Wisconsin (-8.5)

This is the prime time game on ESPN Saturday night. The Huskers have rather quietly amassed a perfect 7-0 record, while the Badgers have lost twice…to Michigan & Ohio St….nothing to be ashamed about. Wisconsin gets the home field bump, which is understandable. But are the points too much?? I think they might be. Zach thinks Nebraska is overrated and he likes Wisconsin’s defense.

My Pick: Nebraska

Z’s Pick: Wisconsin

Clemson (-4.5) at Florida St.

Before the season began this game looked like it could decide a playoff spot. Unfortunately the Seminoles have dropped a couple of games and are unlikely to re-enter the playoff conversation. However the Tigers, despite a few close shaves, remain undefeated and very much in the playoff hunt. As much as I’d love to stick with my pre-season choice and pick Clemson The Vibes are reminding me that this game is in Tallahassee, that Florida St. is still a very good team, & that Clemson has been on the cusp of losing a couple of times and their luck can’t run on forever. Zach believes the Seminoles will put up a good fight but Clemson will be too much in the 4^th quarter.

My Pick: Florida St.

Z’s Pick: Clemson

Kansas City (-2.5) at Indianapolis

The Chiefs were one of my pre-season Super Bowl picks, but thus far they are an underwhelming 4-2 and trailing both the Raiders & Broncos in the AFC West. The Colts aren’t much better. At 3-4 they still have a chance to win their division as I predicted only because the Texans aren’t very good. It is interesting that Indy is a home underdog. If the folks in Vegas aren’t going to respect them why should I?? Zach likes the Chiefs to outcoach the opponent and snag a victory.

My Pick: Kansas City

Z’s Pick: Kansas City

Oakland at Tampa Bay (-1.5)

The Raiders have been fairly impressive in what seems to be the culmination of a decade long rebuild, leading their division at 5-2. The Bucs have been…alright. They are 3-3 and occasionally show flashes of…something. Whatever it is they aren’t there yet and Oakland is ahead of their progress by a country mile. Zach notes that Tampa has suffered some key injuries and thinks the Raiders will be a playoff team.

My Pick: Oakland

Z’s Pick: Oakland

Arizona at Carolina (-2.5)

Many pundits thought the Cards were a Super Bowl favorite this season, but so far they’ve looked rather mediocre. The Panthers have been even worse, following in the footsteps of other Super Bowl losers of the past by stinking up the joint the following year. I have no idea what the problem is, but it is irrefutable that a problem exists. Carolina is probably already out of playoff contention, but Arizona can still recover and win their division. This looks like a tossup on paper, but I’m gonna go with the visiting underdogs. Zach agrees. He likes the Cardinals’ defense to lead them to victory.

My Pick: Arizona

Z’s Pick: Arizona

2016 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

It’s time!! Glorious football is back!! A bunch of stuffed shirts & bean counters have done their darndest the past several years to ruin the game…conference realignment, draconian rules in the name of “safety”, a long awaited playoff system that is flawed and makes the stark contrast between the haves & have nots even more apparent. Nevertheless, for the next few months weekends will be even sweeter as fans will have several hours of couch potato worthy entertainment available at their fingertips. One positive change that has emerged in the wake of the four team playoff is a focus on strength of schedule, meaning that there are more competitive games in the first few weeks of the season than ever before. Oh sure there are still cupcake games, but their value is so diminished under the playoff system that coaches & athletic directors have been forced to up the ante just a bit. In Week 1 alone I am seeing over a dozen matchups that probably wouldn’t have been on the schedule just a few years ago. And you know who the winners are?? That’s right…you & me…the fans. As far as my methodology in putting together these rankings…well, I really can’t say I have much of a method. I do know a few things. I know that everyone can’t finish undefeated. I know that “power” conference teams cannibalize each other, with big wins sometimes cancelling out big losses…and vice versa. Teams from “lesser” conferences certainly aren’t going to make it to the playoff, and just one or two losses can significantly impact their ranking. I don’t do a ton of research for this because it’s supposed to be fun not work, but I do try to pay attention to things like coaching changes, substantial personnel losses from players moving on to the NFL or simply graduating, and any other turmoil that may have affected a program in the offseason. It is difficult for more than a few teams from a single conference…even the big boys…to end up ranked, so one basically must develop a hierarchy. Which teams will be in the hunt for the conference crown and possibly a playoff spot?? Which ones will be good, but lose a couple of games and end up in the lower tier of the poll?? Which teams…despite their talent and vast praise from the talking heads…will finish on the outside looking in?? I’m not an expert so for me it’s just a guessing game based on my vibes & minimal data, but that’s okay. I’d still put my “expertise” up against many members of the sports media who don’t know half as much as they’d like us to believe they do. At any rate, let’s dive in.

1 Clemson

Last Season: 14-1

Key Games: 9/3 at Auburn, 10/1 vs. Louisville, 10/29 at Florida St.

The Tigers fell just short of winning the national championship last season, but they return QB DeShaun Watson, who looks like the second coming of Cam Newton. That’s good enough for me to put them in this spot, although they’ll need to overcome a hostile crowd in Tallahassee right before Halloween and take down the Seminoles.

2 Oklahoma

Last Season: 11-2

Key Games: 9/3 vs. Houston, 9/17 vs. Ohio St., 10/8 vs. Texas, 12/3 vs. Oklahoma St.

I’m predicting that the Big 12 (which has 10 teams) will be a little down this season, leaving the Sooners as the clear favorites. They have tough non-conference games against Houston and Ohio State, but both are in the friendly environment of Norman, OK. QB Baker Mayfield & RB Samaje Perine return, and both could be in the Heisman discussion.

3 Alabama

Last Season: 14-1

Key Games: 9/3 vs. USC, 10/15 at Tennessee, 11/5 at LSU, 11/26 vs. Auburn

Putting The Tide at #1 would be too easy & predictable and that’s not how I roll. The SEC is just too darn tough…I’d be shocked if anyone came thru it unscathed. The season opener against Southern Cal is a neutral site game at the Palace in Dallas and it won’t be easy. Then ‘Bama has to travel to Knoxville & Baton Rouge. It would surprise me less if this team actually lost 3 or 4 games than it would if they’d go undefeated.

4 Ohio State

Last Season: 12-1

Key Games: 9/17 at Oklahoma, 11/5 vs. Nebraska, 11/19 at Michigan St., 11/26 vs. Michigan

Remember last year when the Buckeyes had three legit QBs and no one knew how playing time would be distributed?? It’s a way different story this season, as both Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller (who switched to WR) are plying their trade in the NFL. That means it’s JT Barrett’s show, and that’s a good thing. Now the question becomes how to replace RB Ezekiel Elliott & defensive standout Joey Bosa. It’s also worth noting that the Big Ten (which has 14 teams) looks like it could be even stronger than usual. I might be ranking this team a little too high given all the obstacles they face, but until someone knocks them off the pedestal I have to give them benefit of the doubt. The opener at Oklahoma will be super tough, but even if Ohio St. loses that game they could still win 10 games and end up in this spot.

5 LSU

Last Season: 9-3

Key Games: 9/3 vs. Wisconsin, 10/8 at Florida, 11/5 vs. Alabama

We’ve been waiting a few years for the Bayou Bengals to climb back into legit national title contention, and many seem to believe this is the season. RB Leonard Fournette will be in the thick of the Heisman debate. A 31 yard effort against Alabama killed the young man’s momentum last year so it’ll be really interesting to watch that early November contest to see if he can do better.

6 Florida State

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 9/5 at Ole Miss, 10/8 at Miami FL, 10/29 vs. Clemson, 11/26 vs. Florida

The Seminoles have enjoyed a relatively smooth ride thru the ACC over the years, winning 15 conference titles since 1992. However, I think things might be a little tougher than usual this season. Clemson visits Tallahassee, so that helps. That game could very well decide not only the conference but also a spot in the national title playoff. I also expect the early October tilt at Miami to be more like it was back in the old days when both teams were elite.

7 Tennessee

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 9/24 vs. Florida, 10/1 at Georgia, 10/15 vs. Alabama

Could this finally be the year that the Volunteers return to national prominence and actually contend for the SEC title?? A lot of people seem to think so. They haven’t won 10 games in a season since 2007 and are on their 3^rd head coach since Phillip Fulmer’s departure after the 2008 season. However I think Butch Jones is finally the one. They’ve improved every year under his guidance and if that upward trend continues the Vols might get to 10 wins this year. They host Alabama in Knoxville which is advantageous.

8 Houston

Last Season: 13-1

Key Games: 9/3 vs. Oklahoma, 11/25 at Memphis

Everyone fawns over the “power” conference darlings, but there are five “other” conferences and someone’s got to win them, right?? The Cougars easily won the American Athletic Conference last season and upset Florida St. in the Peach Bowl. They finished in this very spot in the final poll despite an inexplicable loss at Connecticut. I don’t believe they’ll beat Oklahoma in the season opener, but if they can atleast keep that game respectable then run the table they will have the opportunity for another big post-season victory and a Top 10 finish.

9 Iowa

Last Season: 12-2

Key Games: 10/1 vs. Northwestern, 10/22 vs. Wisconsin, 11/12 vs. Michigan, 11/25 vs. Nebraska

Two Big Ten teams finishing in the Top 10 wouldn’t surprise anyone…but which two teams do you prefer?? The Hawkeyes got off to a hot start last season before ending the year with two losses…a close call against Michigan St. and a beatdown by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. The toughest games on the schedule all happen to be at home this year, so that’s positive. Being overlooked is nothing new for Iowa, but objectively speaking I think another 10 win season is easily within their grasp.

10 Temple

Last Season: 10-4

Key Games: 9/17 at Penn St., 10/6 at Memphis, 10/29 vs. Cincinnati

I suppose I’m hedging my bets a bit with two AAC teams in the Top 10. That probably won’t happen. Back in the day when my WV Mountaineers played the Owls annually they were pretty much the doormats of the now defunct Big East and their home games were usually poorly attended snoozefests. But last year something clicked. They beat Penn St. in the opener, lost a close one to Notre Dame, & made it to the conference title game. The Irish aren’t on the schedule this season, so it isn’t unreasonable to think that they could be even more successful, and if they find a way to go into Happy Valley and take down the Nittany Lions again that’d be the cherry on top. Could an AAC title game rematch against Houston actually be a highly anticipated, eminently entertaining contest?? Whoa…that’s crazy talk!!

11 Michigan

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 10/1 vs. Wisconsin, 10/29 at Michigan St., 11/12 at Iowa, 11/26 at Ohio St.

Let’s pump the brakes a bit on the Wolverines, okay?? I just finished reading a rather interesting book called End Zone, about the slow implosion of the Michigan athletic department & football team over the past several years. Of course all of those issues seemed to fade away into the ether the minute Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach last season, and now all the talking heads are throwing Michigan out there as a potential playoff contender. Upon his hiring I did say that Harbaugh would have this team in national title contention within three years, and one thing I Iearned from the aforementioned book is that former coach Brady Hoke, while probably not ready for prime time as far as game management goes, was well liked, highly respected, & a good recruiter. Harbaugh took the talent that was already there last season and won ten games, up from five victories in 2014. An impressive turnaround indeed. However I am just not ready to put them in the playoff hunt quite yet. They have to go on the road for their three biggest games, and I think they could lose atleast two of them. Jim Harbaugh will get Michigan into the playoff eventually…but not yet.

12 Boise State

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 10/20 vs. BYU, 11/25 at Air Force

The Broncos did their usual last season…9 wins, an impressive bowl victory…except that they didn’t compete for the conference championship. I think they can do better this year. Non-conference games against BYU, Washington St., & Oregon St. are important but not vital. They’ll be out for revenge against Air Force, with the winner of that game likely making it to the Mountain West title game. That’s the goal for Boise, and I think meeting those expectations combined with the attrition of various powerhouses beating each other up might propel the Broncos solidly into the Top 20.

13 Utah

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 9/23 vs. USC, 10/8 vs. Arizona, 11/19 vs. Oregon

The Pac 12 really should end up having a team ranked much higher than this, but it’s a tough conference and I think it’s possible that they all cannibalize each other into 9-3 records requiring tiebreakers to see who ends up in the title game. The Utes have their biggest games at home so I’m giving them a slight advantage.

14 Notre Dame

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 9/4 at Texas, 9/17 at Michigan St., 10/15 at Stanford, 11/26 at USC

Looking at the schedule I am not at all sure that the Irish will win enough games to climb this high. It’s going to be really tough. Is Texas back to being Texas?? Can Michigan St. find a new QB?? Is Stanford being overrated by the talking heads or underrated by me?? Is Southern Cal ready to take back the spotlight?? The answers to all of these questions affect Notre Dame. I’d be shocked if they’re anywhere near the playoff conversation, yet they always seem to find a way to be competitive and win big games. And they ended the Michigan rivalry (for now) just in the nick of time.

15 Oklahoma State

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 11/24 at Baylor, 10/1 vs. Texas, 12/3 at Oklahoma

While I think Oklahoma is the clear favorite in the Big 12 (which has ten teams) I am picking their in-state rivals from Stillwater to be a respectable runner-up. Texas may or may not be up to par quite yet, and unlike many “experts” I believe too much has transpired at Baylor in the off season for them to be serious contenders. That leaves the Cowboys, who could conceivably come into that first weekend in December undefeated to face the also undefeated Sooners. That really would be Bedlam.

16 Northern Illinois

Last Season: 8-6

Key Games: 11/9 vs. Toledo

Much like the AAC the MAC gets overlooked in the substantial shadow of the “power” conferences. MAC games get relegated to Tuesday or Wednesday nights on ESPN, but that’s just fine with me. I rather enjoy the brand of football their teams play. The Huskies won the conference title in 2014 but fell off just a bit last season, losing their last three games, including a shellacking by Boise St. in the Poinsettia Bowl. I’m venturing out on a limb and predicting that they’ll get back to 10 wins, a feat they achieved five straight seasons before last year.

17 BYU

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 9/3 vs. Arizona, 9/10 vs. Utah, 9/17 vs. UCLA, 10/8 at Michigan St.

The Cougars used to be a mainstay in this pre-season poll, but they kept disappointing me so I left them off the last couple of years. I’m like my father though…I can’t stay mad at anyone for long. The great & awful thing about BYU being independent is that they have freedom in scheduling. Freedom is cool, but also a little daunting when the powers-that-be fill the calendar with tough games against top flight opponents. They could start the season 3-0…or 0-3. Most likely it’ll be somewhere in the middle. But things don’t get much easier from there, with October games against Michigan St. & Boise St. If I had money on it or a weapon being held in my face I’d say 7-5 would be a solid record for such a difficult schedule. However since I’m just having some fun I’m going to hope for a couple of upsets. 9 wins against this imposing lineup of opponents would be quite impressive.

18 Louisiana Tech

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 9/3 at Arkansas, 9/17 at Texas Tech, 10/6 vs. Western Kentucky

Someone’s going to win C-USA. My heart belongs to the ol’ alma mater…my Marshall Thundering Herd. Nothing would make me happier than to see them end up in this spot, but I’m trying to be objective or something. I don’t know. The season opener against SEC foe Arkansas is a bit daunting, but an upset wouldn’t be shocking. Can the Bulldogs run the table after that even if they don’t get the win in that first game?? It’s possible. I feel like a lot of talking heads and opposing coaches might overlook this team due to RB Kenneth Dixon moving on to the NFL. That might be perfectly valid…or a huge mistake.

19 USC

Last Season: 8-6

Key Games: 9/3 vs. Alabama, 9/23 at Utah, 11/19 at UCLA, 11/26 vs. Notre Dame

The Trojans have only won 27 games the past three seasons. That would be great for most teams, but this is not most teams. Finishing outside the national title conversation and playing in a December bowl game is not good enough for the folks in Southern California. Head coach Clay Helton was given the job last year after the dismissal of Steve Sarkisian, and one must assume that he has a very short leash. Finishing with 8 or 9 wins against a challenging schedule would go a long way toward some job security.

20 Michigan State

Last Season: 12-2

Key Games: 9/17 at Notre Dame, 9/24 vs. Wisconsin, 10/29 vs. Michigan, 11/19 vs. Ohio St.

The Spartans looked great last season, with only a controversial loss in the waning seconds against Nebraska as a blemish. But then they ran into a buzzsaw in the playoff semifinal, getting rolled by the Tide. Because they have to replace QB Connor Cook and O-Lineman Jack Conklin I foresee just a little dropoff. Not much. They’ll still be a good team…just not winning a conference title or in the playoff conversation.

21 Texas

Last Season: 5-7

Key Games: 9/4 vs. Notre Dame, 10/1 at Oklahoma St., 10/8 vs Oklahoma, 10/29 vs. Baylor

This is it. In Charlie Strong’s first two seasons as head coach he has an 11-14 record. I think this is a make or break year for him. Either he wins 8+ games or he’s unemployed. The pre-Halloween game against Baylor might be a critical contest. If the Longhorns can’t beat the Bears in Austin after everything that has occurred in Waco the past several months then perhaps Strong deserves to be shown the door.

22 Arizona

Last Season: 7-6

Key Games: 9/3 vs. BYU, 10/1 at UCLA, 10/8 at Utah

Did I mention that the Pac 12 is a really competitive conference?? I’m kind of sad actually, because my current job entails me leaving for work at about 10pm on Saturday nights, which means I will miss out on the pleasure of staying up til 1am watching those last few west coast games that are oftentimes a lot of fun. Ah well…c’est la vie. Anyway, the Wildcats fell off last season after winning 10 games in 2014. Can they get back on track?? Both RB Nick Wilson (725 yards rushing, 8 TDs) and QB Anu Solomon (2600+ yards passing, 20 TDs) return, although the defense must replace linebacker Scooby Wright who has moved on to the NFL. I think improving to 8 or 9 wins in a tough Pac 12 will be good enough to sneak into the rankings.

23 Miami, FL

Last Season: 8-5

Key Games: 10/8 vs. Florida St., 10/29 at Notre Dame

After being one of the elite teams of the 1980’s & 90’s the Hurricanes have endured some struggles the past decade, not winning 10 games since 2003. But there’s a new sheriff in town. Head coach Mark Richt won 74% of his games in 15 seasons at Georgia, and now he returns to his alma mater to help them achieve the success that eluded the past 2 or 3 coaches. Miami has shown flashes of their former glory the past few years but couldn’t quite get over the hump. I don’t expect them to compete for a conference title, especially with Clemson & Florida St. standing in the way, but 8 or 9 wins doesn’t seem like an unreasonable goal.

24 Nebraska

Last Season: 6-7

Key Games: 9/17 vs. Oregon, 10/29 at Wisconsin, 11/5 at Ohio St., 11/25 at Iowa

I might regret this pick, but I’m going to take a chance anyway. Back in the day when I was growing up Nebraska was one of the cornerstone programs of college football. I don’t know if it is location, bad management, poor coaching, or a move to the Big Ten a few years ago, but the Cornhuskers seem like a forgotten team nowadays. They are 24-15 over the past three seasons, including last year’s disaster under first year coach Mike Riley. They have been completely eclipsed in the news cycle by Ohio St., Michigan, Iowa, Michigan St., and even Wisconsin & Northwestern. If Riley has another subpar season he might be another guy on the chopping block, but if he can guide his team to a couple of upsets and get to that 8/9 win level then he’ll live to coach another season in Lincoln.

25 Oregon

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 9/17 at Nebraska, 11/5 at USC, 11/12 vs. Stanford, 11/19 at Utah

The Ducks have won atleast 9 games in each of the past nine seasons. That’s impressive. I honestly couldn’t name one member of the team without using Google, but I know that Oregon seems like one of those programs that just reloads instead of rebuilding, and while they certainly won’t be in the national title conversation or probably be a legit threat to win the conference I think it is likely that they win 8 games and score an upset or two along the way.

2014 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 6

Last week both Zach & I went 3-2. We both whiffed on Carolina/Baltimore, where our disdain for the Ravens may have clouded our judgment a bit. Conversely we both correctly picked Maryland over Indiana and the Packers over the Bears. Zach was spot on in his assessment of Texas A&M/Arkansas, as the Aggies needed overtime to finish off the Razorbacks and didn’t cover the double digit spread, while I correctly chose the 49ers over the Eagles. For the season that leaves the numbers looking thusly:

Me = 12-14
Zach = 12-13

As for this week, your humble Potentate of Profundity is feeling frisky and you know what that means…bonus picks!! We’re going with all college games because a) unlike last week there are a plethora of really good matchups and b) the NFL has become inundated with sociopolitical correctness, thuggery, & general stupidity that I find exhausting and has really lessened my passion as a fan. No worries though…we’ll pick some pro games next week.

Arizona at Oregon (-23)
First of all, as much as I loathe to admit it, I rather enjoy watching Coach Fraudriguez’s Wildcats. They beat California on a last second hail mary a couple of weeks ago. Two previous games…against Nevada & Texas-San Antonio…weren’t decided until late in the 4th quarter. And of course the Ducks are almost always a lot of fun to watch, even when they are destroying their opponents. Both teams come into this game 4-0, though Oregon is #2 in the polls and Arizona is puzzlingly unranked. #1 Florida St. seems to have its share of doubters, so I don’t think it is out of the question that Oregon could eventually take over the top spot even if both teams continue winning. As for this game, I’d be surprised to see the Ducks lose, especially at home. However I am really uncomfortable with the spread. Oregon only beat Michigan St. by 19 a few weeks ago and I think Arizona has the potential to be even more potent offensively than the 9th ranked Spartans, a team that is averaging 50 points/game. Zach concurs.

My Pick = Arizona
Z’s Pick = Arizona

Texas A&M at Mississippi St. (-2)
I have to believe that if the Aggies hadn’t almost been defeated by Arkansas last weekend that they’d be favored here despite being the road team. It looks like that game has the folks in Vegas a bit spooked. The Bulldogs have snuck up on everyone who were busy heaping praise on their in-state rivals…a team we’ll get to a little later. On paper this looks like a classic trap game…a road team coming off a victory in which they struggled vs. the home team that just pulled off a huge upset over a highly ranked conference rival (LSU). Both teams still seemingly have a lot to prove. The vibes are telling me to pick the underdogs, and y’all know I am a slave to my vibes. Zach likes Mississippi St.’s defense and thinks they win easily.

My Pick = Texas A&M
Z’s Pick = Mississippi St.

Virginia Tech (-2.5) at North Carolina
When doing the pre-season rankings I predicted that the ACC’s Coastal Division would go to Tech despite all the talking heads heaping praise on Miami, FL and North Carolina. Here is where the rubber meets the road on that forecast. Neither team is setting the world on fire. The Hokies are 3-2 and the Tar Heels are 2-2. However the conference schedule is just beginning. It is telling that UNC isn’t favored despite being the home team. As things so often do with Virginia Tech I suspect this will be a game decided by turnovers and special teams. They usually win those battles. Zach…I think…literally flipped a coin and picked the Hokies. Hey, it’s as legit a method as any.

My Pick = Virginia Tech
Z’s Pick = Virginia Tech

Alabama (-6) at Ole Miss
Not only is the media shaky in its support of #1 Florida St., but they also don’t seem to have much faith in the Crimson Tide despite the fact that they are 4-0 and haven’t really broken a sweat yet. Alabama beating my WVU Mountaineers by only 10 points instead of five touchdowns really bothered people for some reason. Meanwhile, the Rebels were recipients of much pre-season hype from everyone but me and have lived up to expectations so far. However, the total record of Mississippi’s four previous opponents is only 7-11. The combination of Ole Miss being vastly overrated and ‘Bama probably getting just a bit tired of people questioning their dominance in all likelihood means a very long day for the underdogs. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Tide rolls by 30+ points. Zach concurs.

My Pick = Alabama
Z’s Pick = Alabama

Stanford (-2.5) at Notre Dame
I am far too lazy to do any research but I’d guess it is a rarity for the Irish to be underdogs at home. Stanford is a very quiet…and deceiving…3-1. Their only loss was at home against rival USC by a field goal with two minutes remaining in the game. Admittedly their three wins haven’t been against elite competition either, but I still think the Cardinals (yes…I add the s because not adding the s is stupid) are a very good team that people might be overlooking in a stacked Pac 12. The Irish are 4-0 but haven’t beaten anyone yet which is probably why they are the underdogs. Oddsmakers are much more intellectually honest than pollsters. At any rate, I’ll take any opportunity I can to pick against Notre Dame as long as it makes logical sense. Zach finds Stanford boring and is all in on the Irish.

My Pick = Stanford
Z’s Pick = Notre Dame

LSU at Auburn (-8)
Last weekend the Bayou Bengals rebounded from a tough loss at home to Mississippi St. and now stand at 4-1, although the only victory that really meant much was the season opening win versus Wisconsin. This will be the first true away game for LSU. Meanwhile, Auburn is following up its superb 2013 season with another impressive campaign. I ranked the Tigers 24th in my pre-season rankings and still think they could end up there due to their brutal second half of the season schedule, but thus far they are a Top 5 team and in the thick of the national playoff conversation. I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict the upset. Zach concurs.

My Pick = LSU
Z’s Pick = LSU

Nebraska at Michigan State (-8.5)
I am looking forward to this being what pro wrestling announcer Jim Ross might call a slobberknocker. The Cornhuskers come into the game 5-0 but this will undoubtedly be their toughest test to date. The Spartans fell to the 2nd ranked Oregon Ducks and have three victories over junior high teams to stand at 3-1. I’m not surprised that Michigan St. gets the home field bump, but 8 ½ points does seem a bit much. I think this is going to be a toss-up, the kind of close game that doesn’t get decided until late in the 4th quarter with special teams making the difference in some capacity. No matter who wins I don’t think it will be by more than a touchdown. Zach likes Michigan St.’s defense and doesn’t think the Spartans will have any problem covering the points.

My Pick = Nebraska
Z’s Pick = Michigan St.

2014 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 3

Better late than never. Simmer down. No worries. Our first game doesn’t kick off until 10pm EST Saturday night.

There are few things more frustrating than being right and still losing. However, when I began doing these picks I decided that it would be far too prosaic to just do straight win/lose, that the element of the point spread had to be incorporated to increase the complexity of the challenge. Unfortunately, as I am sure hardcore gamblers know all too well, this also means that sometimes the spread can reach up and bite one in the butt. Such was the case last week when the Denver Broncos beat the Indianapolis Colts by 7 points instead of 7 ½ points. Even more infuriating is the fact that at one point the Broncos led the game 24-7. Denver letting their foot off the gas resulted in a loss for me and a win for Zach, making me 2-3 for the week and him 3-2. I am rather competitive so this kind of ticks me off. Thanks a lot Peyton Manning. At any rate I suppose I just need to move on and hope for better things this week. The season thus far shapes up like this:

Me = 4-7
Zach = 6-4

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Nebraska (-10.5) at Fresno St.
The Huskers barely escaped what would have been a devastating loss to 1-AA (I kick it old school) McNeese St. last week. Meanwhile, the normally solid & entertaining Bulldogs come into this game 0-2, having been hammered by an average of 35 points. Double digit spreads make me nervous, but I’ll go with the favorites here. Zach thinks Nebraska will win by 4 TDs.

My Pick – Nebraska
Z’s Pick – Nebraska

Nevada at Arizona (-15.5)
The Wolfpack are one of those teams that no one likes to play. They are usually a solid bowl team and seem to play “bigger” teams tough, pulling off the occasional upset. They did go 4-8 in 2013, but come into this game 2-0, including an impressive victory over the PAC 12’s Washington St. Cougars last week. The Wildcats….as much as it physically & emotionally hurts me to say it…have been pretty decent under head coach Rich Fraudriguez and come into this game 2-0 as well, although they had a difficult time defeating Texas-San Antonio last week. It is likely that Arizona holds serve on its home field this week, but the large point spread gives me pause. For that reason I’m going to pick Nevada. Zach, apparently unware of Nevada’s 2-0 record, thinks they suck and reluctantly picks Arizona, even though he hates their coach as much as I do.

My Pick – Nevada
Z’s Pick – Arizona

Miami at Buffalo (even)
No result from the first week of NFL action was as shocking to me as the Dolphins upsetting the New England Patriots. But the Bills pulled off a pretty big surprise themselves by beating the Chicago Bears. Now look, let’s be honest…the Patriots are still winning the division. However, both of these teams (as well as the New York Jets) ae looking to make the jump up to a solid wildcard contender that wins 9 or 10 games. This game will tell us a lot about both teams. The folks in Vegas seem to think they are evenly matched, which both simplifies and complicates things. I’m going with Buffalo because of the home field advantage. Zach doesn’t believe that Miami’s victory last week was a fluke and believes they will be a serious playoff contender.

My Pick – Buffalo
Z’s Pick – Miami

Seattle (-5.5) at San Diego
The defending Super Bowl champions looked quite impressive in their season debut, soundly defeating the Green Bay Packers. Meanwhile, the Chargers lost a heartbreaker last week to the Arizona Cardinals. As much as I’d love to go with the underdogs here I just can’t pull the trigger. I thought Seattle might ease off the throttle and fall back just a little bit this season, but so far that prediction looks like it might be wrong. Zach concurs.

My Pick – Seattle
Z’s Pick – Seattle

NY Jets at Green Bay (-8)
The Packers began the season on the receiving end of the previously mentioned beatdown at the hands of the Seahawks. The Jets took care of the Oakland Raiders. I like Green Bay to rebound here, especially in the friendly confines of the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The points are a bit much for my taste, but if Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense are firing on all cylinders it shouldn’t be a problem. Zach agrees.

My Pick – Green Bay
Z’s Pick – Green Bay

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