Perhaps picking “Week Zero” games was a bad idea. Neither of us fared well, but I do want to emphasize that is NOT why we’re doing extra picks this week. After all, digging an even bigger hole at the outset will just make things worse. That being said, this is the first full weekend of college football, so why not celebrate?? Normally I would be torn between attending our local Italian Heritage Festival and staying home glued to the television, but this year I don’t have a choice, which is fine. There are games from Thursday all the way thru Monday night, and I’m here for all of it. In the midst of the long weekend, please take a moment to reflect on the holiday itself. Labor Day was created in 1882 to recognize the work & contributions of laborers in the United States, which is certainly worthy of celebration.
My Season: 1-4
Zach’s Season: 0-5
Fresno State at Southern Cal (-22.5)
The Trojans handled San Jose St. rather easily last week, with QB Jayden Maiava throwing for 286 yards & two TDs. Not bad, but he’ll need to kick it up a notch to impress Heisman voters. Fresno finished last season 9-4 with a bowl victory after getting stomped in their opening game. History may repeat itself. Zach doesn’t believe we learned anything important about USC last weekend, and believes Fresno is a slightly tougher foe…atleast good enough to cover the points.
My Pick: USC
Zach’s Pick: Fresno St.
Liberty at James Madison (-6.5)
It wasn’t that long ago that these teams were receiving alot of buzz. The Flames won thirteen games in 2023, going undefeated in the regular season before falling to Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. Just two seasons later they finished 4-8. The Dukes were 12-2 a season ago, coincidentally losing to Oregon in a first round playoff game. However, head coach Bob Chesney has moved on to UCLA, with former Florida coach Billy Napier taking over the program. JMU brings back just 27% of its total production from last year’s CFP team, which is among the lowest in FBS. That’s why I feel an upset brewing. Zach feels comfortable with the home favorites.
My Pick: Liberty
Zach’s Pick: James Madison
Oregon State at Houston (-20.5)
It’s a new day for the Beavers, both in terms of the revived Pac 12 and the fact that they’ve hired their fifth head coach in a decade. A fresh start is certainly needed after two consecutive losing seasons. Conversely, the Cougars enter 2026 with high expectations following a ten win season and finishing third in the competitive Big 12. Zach predicts Oregon St. will improve, which isn’t hard to imagine given they were 2-10. He isn’t crazy enough to pick the outright upset, but does believe it’ll be closer than expected.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Oregon St.
North Texas at Indiana (-40.5)
There is no shortage of people who give the defending National Champions a legit chance to repeat. I am not one of them, although I do believe they’ll still be really good. The Mean Green are coming off a twelve win season, but that success led to Oklahoma St. poaching their head coach. In steps former WVU coach Neal Brown to lead the charge in Denton, TX, which is amusing to those of us in the Mountain State. No one with a functioning brain thinks we’ll see an upset here, but the points are a bit much for me. I foresee something like 42-13, which is still a dominant victory, but not anything wacky. Zach shares my concern that Indiana will take their foot off the gas in the second half and seize the opportunity to give their backups valuable game experience…but he’s feeling frisky and riding with the home favorites to cover that massive spread.
My Pick: North Texas
Zach’s Pick: Indiana
Boise State at Oregon (-24.5)
Boise St. finally made it to the Pac 12…after all the top teams went elsewhere. One of them was Oregon, who has been settling into the Big Ten these last couple of years. The Ducks have big dreams after falling short in the CFP semis last season, with the catalyst for that optimism being the unexpected return of junior QB Dante Moore, who would’ve been a first round pick in the NFL Draft this past spring. The Broncos will likely have another solid season and seem to be favorites to win a conference title, but they’re not winning the opener. Can they keep it close?? Also no…atleast in my opinion. Zach thinks Boise can hang and keep things respectably competitive.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Boise St.
Baylor at Auburn (-7.5)
It could be the sneaky best game of the weekend. The Bears were 5-7 a season ago, but did a total rebuild on offense thru the portal. The Tigers were also 5-7 and hired former South Florida coach Alex Golesh to replace Hugh Freeze, whose tenure was an unmitigated disaster. I think we have to dig deeper though, and understand that Baylor won twelve games as recently as 2021, while Auburn has intermittently had some good years as well, with their last double digit win coming less than a decade ago. These are not terrible programs, and they will figure things out. As far as this particular game goes, I think the underdogs might make things really interesting. Zach likes the changes Auburn made and foresees a solid victory.
My Pick: Baylor
Zach’s Pick: Auburn
Clemson at LSU (-10.5)
We’re going to learn alot from this game. After consistently having double digit wins and being in national championship contention for a decade & a half the Tigers were a very average 7-6 last season, even losing a bowl game. It’s too quick to push the panic button, but Dabo Swinney needs a good rebound season. On the other side of the field we’re all very aware of the drama. New head coach Lane Kiffin was not hired to win nine games & be invited to a meaningless bowl. If that was good enough they’d have kept Brian Kelly. There’s alot on the line and a ton to prove for two head coaches under a microscope. Night games in Baton Rouge are a BIG event. ESPN Gameday will be on the scene, so the hype will be full throttle. I don’t have a vibe…yet…on whether Clemson can right the ship, but I am certain that LSU will be hellbent on getting the Kiffin Era off to a memorable start. Zach concurs.
My Pick: LSU
Zach’s Pick: LSU
Washington State at Washington (-23.5)
The Apple Cup as a season opener is evidence of how much college football has changed in recent years. This is now an out of conference game for both teams. The Cougars will be breaking in a new head coach after their old one bolted for Iowa St. They haven’t had a double digit win season since 2018. The Huskies enter their third year with Jedd Fisch at the helm, and they improved dramatically from Season 1 to Season 2. They lost some significant talent to the NFL, so we’ll see if they can reload or must rebuild. I don’t believe the home field is that significant in this case, but I do think the home team is simply better. Three TDs better?? Okay, sure. Zach agrees. It’s a 4pm Sunday kickoff, so put a reminder in your phone.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
Louisville at Ole Miss (-7)
Pete Golding takes over in Oxford, although it isn’t actually his first game as head coach after he led them to a 2-1 mark in the CFP, ultimately losing in the semifinals. I don’t believe the coaching transition is as big of a deal as the loss of five players to the NFL. However, they did retain the services of QB Trinidad Chambliss after a litigious offseason, and he’ll be joined by junior RB Kewan Lacy. Both young men will be part of early Heisman discussions. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were 9-4 last season, but underwent a significant rebuild afterward. They’ve been consistent the past few years under head coach Jeff Brohm, usually coming out of the gate strong against lesser opponents. This is different, and I don’t think it’ll work out well for them. Zach doesn’t believe the Rebels will miss a beat post-Kiffin, and won’t be surprised if they are playoff contenders once again. It’s a Sunday evening game, which sounds like fun.
My Pick: Ole Miss
Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (-20.5)
With the influx of powerhouse west coast teams into the Big Ten it seems like the Badgers have gotten lost in the shuffle. They’ve had two straight losing seasons, and the two seasons before that were just mediocre. Head coach Luke Fickell’s fourth year feels like a pivotal one, and it sure doesn’t look like an easy path. The Irish lost their first two games last season before winning all the rest, but that slow start cost them a playoff berth. The good news is they lead the nation in returning production, including junior quarterback CJ Carr. Replacing six players drafted into the NFL, including running backs Jeremiyah Love & Jadarian Price as well as receiver Malachi Fields, may prove challenging, but Notre Dame might have one of the best defenses in the country. This is a neutral site game at Lambeau Field, which obviously won’t be a frozen tundra in September. It’s also on Sunday evening, making it the most excitement I’ve anticipated for a Sunday night in several months. Unfortunately I don’t think we’ll be treated to a competitive contest, and neither does Zach.
Do y’all remember an episode of Seinfeld when George gets fired from the Yankees?? Since there is a severance package involved he enthusiastically looks at it as an opportunity for a three month vacation, but after a tumble down some stairs leaves him incapacitated the neurotic Costanza laments “This was supposed to be the Summer of George!”. I’ve been feeling that way after encountering some health issues and having two medical procedures in the past few months, which is why I’ve been looking forward to football season. Sitting in front of my 55 inch smart TV and watching wall to wall college football on Saturday & seven hours of NFL Redzone on Sunday is my happy place. I’m not very exciting and don’t lead an…impactful…life, but when one spends enough time dealing with certain circumstances simplicity & small comforts become significant. I have friends & family who, in recent months, have gone to the beach, jetted off to Europe, and taken road trips to some cool places. Conversely, I’ll be happy to spend weekends this fall comfortably ensconced in my humble abode watching countless hours of gridiron action.
25 Tennessee
Last Season: 8-5 (lost Music City Bowl)
Key Games: 9/26 vs. Texas, 10/17 vs. Alabama, 11/21 vs. LSU
The Volunteers QB situation concerns me just a bit, with two freshmen vying to replace former signal caller Joey Aguilar, who is trying to secure a spot on the Jacksonville Jaguars roster. Tennessee also has a new defensive coordinator who has an entirely rebuilt defense via the portal. Perhaps my expectations are too high for a team in the (alleged) toughest conference in the country, but Josh Heupel is a former SEC Coach of the Year, and with all three key games noted above happening in Knoxville I believe atleast one upset and a nine win season are reasonable expectations.
I am much higher on the Sun Devils than most. The Big 12 is looking like a dog fight, so one upset could make a huge difference. State will need to make their case on the road, and they’ll probably be another team using multiple quarterbacks after Sam Leavitt bolted for LSU. The offense has undergone a significant rebuild, so State will be leaning on its defense to win games.
It seems like we’ve been waiting a very long time for the Cornhuskers to reclaim the glory they had back in the day when I was a boy. Unfortunately former Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule is a combined 19-19 in his three years at the helm in Lincoln, and this feels like a make or break year for his tenure. Nebraska brings back 69% of their production on both sides of the ball. The question becomes is that a good thing from a team that was 7-6?? How much does stability matter in college football nowadays, and is the number deceiving anyway since Dylan Raiola bolted to be the backup quarterback at Oregon?? I suppose we’ll find out the answers, and I think it is possible that Rhule, with his back against the wall, can pull a couple rabbits out of the hat.
22 Texas A&M
Last Season: 11-2 (lost in first round of playoffs)
A year ago, in his second season in College Station, head coach Mike Elko led the Aggies to double digit wins for the first time since 2012. They return 65% of their production from last season, including QB Marcel Reed. Of course, they also had a program record ten players drafted into the NFL. I think we’ll see a slight regression, and securing a playoff berth will be challenging, but don’t be surprised if A&M sneaks into the tail end of the final rankings.
Head coach Kalen DeBoer enters his third year in Tuscaloosa, and if he can replicate last season’s success it would calm the waters, although we all know the ‘Bama faithful are getting restless since they’ve been without a national title since 2020. I have a feeling they’ll yo-yo between junior QB Austin Mack & freshman Keelon Russell until one of them seizes control of the job. The Tide returns less than 50% of their production from a season ago and lost ten players in the NFL Draft. Having said that, ‘Bama is the horror movie psycho of college football…just when we think they’re dead in the water they rise up. They host Georgia in October, which is huge. Trips to Rocky Top & Death Valley hold the keys for the entire season.
20 Navy
Last Season: 11-2 (won Liberty Bowl)
Key Games: 10/24 vs. North Texas, 10/31 vs. Notre Dame, 12/12 vs. Army
I always have a soft spot for our service academies, not only for what their players become off the field, but also because their games are unique and fun to watch. The Midshipmen have had two consecutive double digit victory seasons under 4th year head coach Brian Newberry, and I’m predicting another one. I don’t think they’ll upset Notre Dame, but keep your eye on the October visit from North Texas that could be significant in determining an AAC champion.
Former head coach Lane Kiffin famously ditched the Rebels before the playoff began a season ago, so this will be Pete Golding’s first full year in charge. I’m sure he is happy to have QB Trinidad Chambliss back under center after a tumultuous offseason of legal battles to secure another year of eligibility for the young man. Junior RB Kewan Lacy also returns, so the offense should be solid. I believe it will be an uphill climb to equal last season, but don’t be surprised if Ole Miss upsets an opponent or two and Chambliss is a serious Heisman contender.
I find ACC football rather prosaic. I don’t know why. However, with Clemson’s era of dominance seemingly over, the conference is atleast more competitive. The Wolfpack have been average at best for quite awhile, with head coach Dave Doeren in that position since 2013 and winning 8 or 9 games eight times. Can they win just one more game?? Can they go on the road and defeat two or three teams that they should theoretically handle easily?? We’ll see.
17 BYU
Last Season: 12-2 (won Pop Tarts Bowl)
Key Games: 10/17 vs. Notre Dame, 10/31 vs. Arizona St., 11/7 @ Utah
QB Bear Bachmeier, in addition to having a cool name, is only a sophomore. The Cougars also added tight end Walker Lyons from USC and 6ft.6 receiver Kyle Kasper from Oregon. An October upset of Notre Dame in Provo would certainly improve their playoff resume, but even without that, being in the thick of the Big 12 title chase and double digit victories seem like attainable goals.
16 Texas Tech
Last Season: 12-2 (lost playoff quarterfinal)
Key Games: 9/18 vs. Houston, 10/17 vs. Arizona St., 11/26 vs. TCU
Contrary to the legal victories that secured the services of Trinidad Chambliss at Ole Miss for another season, the Red Raiders found themselves on the short end of the stick when it came to the brouhaha surrounding QB Brendan Sorsby, who was supposed to transfer from Cincinnati to Lubbock, but apparently enjoyed gambling on football even more than playing football. At any rate, in addition to the quarterback situation, Tech has to replace almost half their defense that was drafted in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft. I don’t believe they’ll win as many games or be in the Big 12 title hunt, but neither do I think Tech will fall off the map.
After securing a playoff berth in 2024 the Mustangs fell off just a bit last season, but still had a nice year that could’ve been even better. They lost two overtime games, including one to eventual playoff runner-up Miami. I don’t think they’ll go into South Bend and take down the Fighting Irish in November, but an early season battle in Tallahassee against the Seminoles feels like a winnable contest that could set a positive tone for the year.
14 Georgia
Last Season: 12-2 (lost playoff quarterfinal)
Key Games: 9/26 vs. Oklahoma, 10/10 @ Alabama, 11/7 @ Ole Miss
A year ago, while ranking the Bulldogs 11th, I said that I had a vibe that they wouldn’t be in the SEC title race. To their credit they proved me wrong, winning the conference championship before losing to Ole Miss in the playoff quarterfinals. However, I’m stubborn, so I’m ranking them even lower this preseason. They return a plethora of starters, including QB Gunner Stockton, center Drew Bobo, and defensive backs KJ Bolden & Ellis Robinson IV, but a closer examination of last season reveals that they won a couple of games that could’ve easily been losses. The ball could bounce the other way in 2026, but even if it does, a ten win season is nothing to be ashamed about.
13 Southern California
Last Season: 9-4 (lost Alamo Bowl)
Key Games: 9/26 vs. Oregon, 10/3 vs. Washington, 10/10 @ Penn St.
The Trojans return 15 starters, including senior QB & possible Heisman candidate Jayden Maiava, who has drawn comparisons to Steelers legend Ben Roethlisberger. Head coach Lincoln Riley enters his fifth year at the helm, with the past three seasons being solid yet unremarkable. They’ll need to approach double digit wins and upset a contender or two if Riley doesn’t want his seat to start getting a bit warm.
12 Indiana
Last Season: 16-0 (won CFP Championship)
Key Games: 10/17 vs. Ohio St., 11/14 vs. USC, 11/21 @ Washington
I understand that the Hoosiers are ranked in the Top 5 of most other polls. I know they are the defending National Champions. To be honest, I’m not even that sold on quarterback Fernando Mendoza as an NFL level talent, and believe it’s not a stretch to think incoming transfer Josh Hoover, a former starter at TCU, could replicate Mendoza’s success in Bloomington. The Hoosiers added additional talent thru the portal and of course retained head coach Curt Cignetti. Having said all of that, when one looks back and realizes that Indiana defeated Oregon (twice), Ohio St., Alabama, and Miami (FL) en route to perfection, it is simply difficult to fathom duplication of that achievement.
11 Boise State
Last Season: 9-5 (lost L.A. Bowl)
Key Games: 9/5 @ Oregon, 10/10 @ Fresno St., 11/14 vs. Oregon St.
The Broncos headline the revived & revamped Pac 12, which lacks the prestige of its former incarnation. However, if Boise wins the conference and gets to ten wins they will be a serious playoff contender, especially if they put up a fight in Eugene against the Ducks to open the season. I don’t expect Boise to win that game, but if they can keep the score within 15-20 points the powers-that-be will take notice.
10 Oregon
Last Season: 13-2 (lost playoff semifinal)
Key Games: 9/26 @ USC, 11/7 @ Ohio St., 11/28 vs. Washington
I’ll never get use to Oregon in the Big Ten. College football is stupid off the field. Anyway, QB Dante Moore decided to return to the Ducks rather than enter the NFL Draft, where he certainly would have been a first round pick. I suppose being throttled by Indiana in the playoff semis left a bad taste in his mouth. But can they even get that far again?? I think Oregon will need to score atleast one big upset on the road to be in the conversation. If they lose all three key games Moore may regret delaying his professional dreams.
The Big 12 is wide open, and I have no idea who may emerge on top. The Cougars return 65% of their production from a squad that won ten games. A key piece of the puzzle is senior QB Conner Weigman, who threw for over 2700 yards with an impressive 147.74 passer rating, added 700 yards on the ground, and had 36 total touchdowns. Houston also added a Top Ten transfer class from the portal. A year ago they were in the thick of the conference title scrum, but a couple of losses doomed their chances. They’ll need to be road warriors this season to flip the script.
This will be QB Arch Manning’s final season in Austin, and it seems like the shine has worn off just a bit. Once upon a time Manning was a presumptive Heisman winner who most assumed would be the #1 overall draft pick, but now some are questioning if the hype was just that. The Longhorns weren’t terrible last year, but a season opening loss at Ohio St. set the wrong tone, and losing at Georgia in November doomed their playoff hopes. They have the Buckeyes at home this time, but will still need to win on the road for things to be better than a season ago.
7 Notre Dame
Last Season: 10-2 (declined bowl invitation)
Key Games: 9/6 vs. Wisconsin, 10/17 @ BYU, 11/7 vs. Miami (FL)
Fool me once, shame on you…fool me twice, shame on me. After ranking The Irish #1 a year ago, they thanked me with back-to-back season opening losses to Miami and Texas A&M. The schedule looks a little different this year because realignment has destroyed traditional rivalries, so I would be shocked if Notre Dame doesn’t sail thru the first half of the schedule, and anything less than ten wins and a playoff berth would be a huge disappointment. Sophomore quarterback CJ Carr is back, while running backs Jeremiyah Love & Jadarian Price are now plying their trade in the NFL. That being said, Notre Dame leads the nation in total returning production at 72%, bringing back 14 starters.
6 LSU
Last Season: 7-6 (lost Texas Bowl)
Key Games: 9/19 @ Ole Miss, 11/7 vs. Alabama, 11/14 vs. Texas
There’s a new sheriff in the bayou, and his name is Lane Kiffin. Former head coach Brian Kelly was 34-14 in just less than four seasons, so Kiffin wasn’t hired to win 9 or 10 games and lead his team to the Citrus Bowl…they are expecting SEC titles & deep playoff runs in Baton Rouge. Kiffin brought in junior QB Sam Leavitt from Arizona St., while LSU is projected to have a Top 5 defense. A mid-September clash at Ole Miss will be hyped by the talking heads for obvious reasons (I’ll be stunned if ESPN’s Gameday isn’t on the scene), but November home games against ‘Bama & Texas will probably decide the conference championship.
The Buckeyes are at the top of most other polls, but I can’t go there after back-to-back losses (in the Big Ten title game & playoff quarterfinals) to end last season. Talent is never a problem in Columbus. Sophomore QB Julian Sayin returns after passing for 3600 yards & 33 touchdowns with a completion rate of 77% (which led the nation). He finished 4th in Heisman Trophy voting. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith fell off a bit last year after a phenomenal freshman season, but that was due to a quad injury that negatively impacted two games in November. There were some huge departures from the defense. Four of the first eleven picks in the NFL Draft were from Ohio St., with three of those being defensive players. Rebuilding that unit is the biggest key to the team’s success.
The Huskies have flown under the radar the last couple of seasons since former head coach Kalen DeBoer left for Alabama after leading Washington to the CFP championship game in 2024. However, coming off a 9-4 finish there is a ton of optimism in Seattle. Washington is another west coast team inexplicably competing in the Big Ten, but I’ll refrain from beating that dead horse. Skill positions took a hit after RB Jonah Coleman & receiver Denzel Boston were drafted into the NFL, but returning QB Demond Williams Jr., who threw for over 3000 yards and scored 31 touchdowns last season, has been compared to Kyler Murray with flashes of Russell Wilson. Defense will be the difference maker, and I think we’ll see the Huskies pull off a couple of big upsets.
3 Utah
Last Season: 11-2 (won Las Vegas Bowl)
Key Games: 10/24 vs. Houston, 11/7 vs. BYU, 11/21 @ TCU
A year ago I overlooked the Utes in the Big 12, but they were in the hunt right to the very end of the season. I expect the conference to be just as competitive this season, if not more so. Head coach Morgan Scalley takes over for Kyle Whittingham, who left for Michigan. However, since Scalley had been the defensive coordinator in Salt Lake City for a decade, I don’t think continuity will be an issue. Senior QB Devon Dampier threw for almost 2500 yards last season, rushed for over 800 yards, and scored 34 touchdowns. Their defense will have to kick it up a notch or two, and Utah needs to defend their home field against some formidable opponents.
2 Penn State
Last Season: 7-6 (won Pinstripe Bowl)
Key Games: 10/10 vs. USC, 10/17 @ Michigan, 11/7 @ Washington
I’m a big fan of my boy Rocco Becht, who will become the Nittany Lions new quarterback after following head coach Matt Campbell from Iowa St. to Happy Valley. There’s no way around it…last season was a disaster for Penn St., so they needed a total reset. Winning the Big Ten is a tall mountain to climb, but I think it’s doable. There are advantages to being disregarded & undervalued, and this is a team that may just take a few opponents by surprise.
We’d been waiting for the once dominant ‘Canes to be a force once again, and last season they made it all the way to the CFP championship game. The ACC might be the most winnable conference in the country, and it’s odd to recall that Miami didn’t even play in the title game last year thanks to close losses to Louisville & SMU. They snuck into the playoff and went on an incredible run, defeating three Top Ten teams before falling to Indiana. Can they do it again?? Miami lost nine players in the NFL Draft, including three first round choices. QB Darian Mensah has transferred to Coral Gables from Duke, and he might be even better than former signal caller Carson Beck. However, the bigger issue is defense, which was Top 5 in the country a season ago. Can they reload?? Will a new look defense be as good as they were last year?? Winning the conference is a priority, in part because it would make the playoff path somewhat less difficult.
Y’all, I realize we’re not writing the Great American Novel here. I don’t even know if anyone reads this stuff other than me & Zach. It’s a fun little thing that I do because I am easily amused. Having said that, there are times when the struggle is real, and I can’t seem to find the motivation to follow thru with this “fun little thing”. Thankfully, I impose upon myself a deadline. Whether or not we’re picking a Thursday game, our picks are posted before kickoff of those games. It seems silly to call it pressure, so I’ll just call it a beneficial guideline.
Observations from Last Week:
I predicted a final score of 27-7, Indiana over Minnesota. The actual score was 31-7. Not too shabby 🤔.
It was a pleasure watching the Pitt Panthers get absolutely dog walked by Notre Dame at home.
Upon further review, perhaps we should pump the brakes on LaNorris Sellers. He needs to transfer to a school with a more skilled offensive line and spend another year (or two) focusing on the mental aspect of being a quarterback.
I don’t understand 4th & goal inside the one yard line being run out of the shotgun. Why make it more difficult than necessary??
The Washington Commanders should move Heaven & Earth to acquire defensive players Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, & T’Vondre Sweat and christen them The Sweat Hogs.
My Season: 38-34
Zach’s Season: 32-40
TCU at Houston (-1.5)
The Big 12 is still up for grabs, but this is essentially a must-win for the 8-2 Cougars. The 6-4 Horned Frogs can only play a spoiler role after losing their last two games. I foresee a tight game that’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t think we’ll see an upset with the stakes so high. Zach likes Houston in a shootout.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Houston
Louisville at Southern Methodist (-3)
The 7-3 Mustangs are still in the thick of the ACC title hunt, plus they have the home field. The Cardinals are also 7-3, but have two more conference losses than SMU, meaning they’re pretty much eliminated from contention. The underdogs have also lost two consecutive games, and I can’t overlook momentum. Zach concurs.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: SMU
Tennessee (-4.5) at Florida
Neither team is getting near the SEC title game, but it’s pretty clear which one has had a more successful season. The 3-7 Gators have been in the headlines mainly for firing their head coach, with talking heads offering a plethora of speculation about who’ll be the next guy to get the gig. Conversely, the 7-3 Vols have had a nice season and probably exceeded expectations. At the very least they are the more stable program right now. Winning at The Swamp is always a tall order, but I think the visiting favorites will get the job done. Zach, on the other hand, believes Florida is a better team than we’ve been led to believe, while Tennessee is mediocre at best. He likes the Gators to feast in The Swamp.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Florida
Jacksonville (-2.5) at Arizona
With QB Kyler Murray injured, the 3-7 Cards have handed the keys to Jacoby Brissett, although I don’t think it really matters. It’d be shocking if Jonathan Gannon is still the head coach in Arizona next season. Meanwhile, the 6-4 Jags are just Jagging as usual. They win some, they lose some. No one outside the state of Florida cares, and even in the state Jacksonville is probably the sixth favorite football team at best. I have to lean toward the visiting favorites, because Trevor Lawrence is atleast supposed to be a good quarterback. Zach appreciates Jax’s dominant upset of the Chargers last week, and though he doesn’t see Arizona as being that bad defensively, he’s still picking the favorites.
My Pick: Jacksonville
Zach’s Pick: Jacksonville
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-3.5)
In my humble opinion the oddsmakers are wrong, or perhaps just disrespectful. A three point home field bump is the standard jumping off point in the NFL, but Indy is 8-2 with wins over Denver & the LA Chargers, while the Chiefs are 5-5 with a two game losing streak. Look, I get it…no one wants to fall into the trap of believing the Chiefs really aren’t great anymore, only for them to roar back and win their fourth Lombardi Trophy in the past six years. QB Patrick Mahomes is just 30 years old and in his prime. Andy Reid is still a great coach. However, at some point we have to start believing what we’re seeing. We can’t keep making excuses for KC while totally disregarding the Colts. That’s why this game is so important. Sure, there are playoff berths & division titles to be decided, but there is also a matter of respect. On Monday, will everyone be saying “See, I told you Indianapolis was just a bunch of posers”, or will doubters concede they’ve been wrong?? Will folks be giving Last Rites to the Chiefs dynasty, or will true blue die hards proudly proclaim “I KNEW they’d wake up!! We’re going back to the Super Bowl baby!!”?? I’m not sure about Indy’s chances to win it all, but I do think they’re the real deal and will prove it. Conversely, Zach thinks the Chiefs will somehow back into the playoffs, and he’s still not sold on Colts QB Daniel Jones.
Both of us were 5-5 last week, which almost makes bonus picks feel like a waste of time. However, I can’t go that far really because having the outcome of those games matter makes them more fun to watch. We’re doing something a bit different this week…or are we?? I think we may have tried this concept once…perhaps a couple of times…in the past. Instead of both of us picking the same games we’ll both be picking five separate games. Enjoy!!
My Season: 43-30
Zach’s Season: 36-37
Wake Forest at Notre Dame (-24.5)
It’s the Sam Hartman Bowl!! The Fighting Irish QB spent five seasons in Winston-Salem under center for the Demon Deacons and became the ACC’s all-time leader in touchdown passes. Wake is 4-6, so they need to win out to become bowl eligible, while the home team is 7-3 and will probably end up playing in a top tier New Year’s bowl game because that’s how college football seems to work these days. Zach is concerned about the points, but he’s feeling frisky.
Zach’s Pick: Notre Dame
Colorado at Washington State (-4.5)
The talking heads have mostly stopped paying attention to Coach Prime since the Buffaloes are 4-6 and have lost three in a row. Having said that, the Cougars share the same abysmal record and have lost six straight games. Yikes. This is a Friday night game on FS1, which doesn’t bode well for ratings. The Vibes are telling me that the Buffs are desperate enough for the additional attention a post-season appearance brings, so they’ll be motivated to become bowl eligible.
My Pick: Colorado
North Carolina at Clemson (-6.5)
It hasn’t been a great year for the 6-4 Tigers, but they’ve won two in a row and would love to finish strong, building momentum for the future in the process. Meanwhile, the 8-2 Tar Heels hit a snag with two close losses at the end of October, which essentially killed their conference title aspirations. Zach isn’t necessarily predicting an upset, but he foresees a close contest.
Zach’s Pick: North Carolina
Appalachian State at James Madison (-11.5)
ESPN will be on hand for Gameday, and as someone who graduated from a school that took the leap from 1-AA/FCS to playing in a Group of Five FBS conference I understand how much that means to these programs. The 6-4 Mountaineers aren’t going to win the Sun Belt or get to ten wins as had become fairly commonplace until last season, but they’d surely love to go bowling. Conversely, the undefeated Dukes have sparked a debate about an outdated NCAA rule that precludes them from post-season participation because this is only their second year at the FBS level. Meanwhile, last year a 5-7 team got a bowl bid, and nowadays players transfer more frequently than most people change underwear. Make it make sense. Anyway, I think the home crowd & all the hype will help the home team, but the points are just too much. JMU gets the victory, but they’ll win by 7-10 points.
My Pick: Appalachian St.
Oklahoma State (-7) at Houston
The 7-3 Cowboys still have an opportunity to get to the Big 12 title game, but questions remain after the beatdown they received last week at UCF. As for the 4-6 Cougars…well, it’s their first season in the conference, and they’ve proven they can hang despite their record. They need to win out to be bowl eligible. Zach doesn’t think that’s going to happen though, predicting the favorites to grind out a hard fought victory.
Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma St.
Kansas State (-7.5) at Kansas
The Battle of Kansas is normally more interesting on the basketball court, but with both teams at 7-3 and not mathematically out of the Big 12 title hunt this could be a fascinating game. You may recall that I had high hopes for the Wildcats, but losing at Missouri back in September squashed those expectations. They did push Texas to triple OT a couple weeks ago before losing, which deserves a tip o’ the cap. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks came out of the gate strong but have rode the roller coaster the last two months. It’s a 7pm kickoff on Saturday night and a chance for the folks at FS1 to present a better game than the night before. I won’t be watching because I have plans, but I think the home team gets it done, or atleast stays really close the whole way.
My Pick: Kansas
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-3)
The AFC North is very much up for grabs, with the 5-4 Bengals battling back into contention after a rough start. The 7-3 Ravens are a confusing team, occasionally looking like the championship contenders that the talking heads promote them as being, but sometimes snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That’s exactly what Zach thinks will happen, with Joe Burrow leading Cincy to a big win on the last possession of the game.
Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati
NY Giants at Washington (-10)
The Giants season has been torpedoed by injuries. At 2-8 they’re in the running to snag the top pick in April’s NFL Draft, which could force them to ponder whether or not QB Daniel Jones, currently on the shelf with a torn ACL, is really their guy. The 4-6 Commanders have shown occasional signs of life, but they could find themselves in the same boat, having to decide if QB Sam Howell is the future. As for this game, Washington isn’t a dominating enough team to beat anyone by double digits.
My Pick: NY Giants
NY Jets at Buffalo (-7)
What’s up with the Bills?? They’ve lost 3 out of the last four games and just fired their offensive coordinator (while Steelers fans everywhere shake our heads in amazement). The Jets have shown potential but are inconsistent. Neither team is out of division title contention, but they need to shape up rather quickly or Miami will win the AFC East easily. Zach has lost faith in Buffalo and thinks they’d be fortunate to win at all, but if it happens it’ll be by the skin of their teeth.
Zach’s Pick: NY Jets
Philadelphia at Kansas City (-3)
Is it a Super Bowl preview?? Possibly. Both teams should be rested & healthy follow a bye week, and the viewers of Monday Night Football will reap the rewards. The 8-1 Eagles haven’t blown anyone out, but perhaps that’s because they’ve known how good they are and haven’t needed to exert maximum effort. The Chiefs are 7-2 and will cruise to their eighth consecutive division title, but they’ve shown chinks in the armor. Whichever team establishes a ground game, dominates time of possession, and plays better defense will be victorious, and I believe the visiting underdogs are up to the task.
I’m already off to a better start than a year ago, having gone 4-1 last week. Zach was 2-3 but I’m sure he’ll rebound quickly. These games are much more intriguing, with the action beginning on Thursday night and stretching thru the long weekend. Allow me to seize an opportunity to remind you that this will be the final year for the four team playoff, which means a few teams might be eliminated from contention early. I haven’t taken time to ponder the full impact of an expanded 12 team playoff as well as all of the wacky conference shuffling, but one doesn’t have to be a mathematician to understand that 12 is three times as many as four, meaning the impact of early season losses will be less in the future, whereas right now one loss can derail an entire season.
My Season: 4-1
Zach’s Season: 2-3
Florida at Utah (-6.5)
I had the Utes knocking on the door of the Top 10 in my preseason poll, while the Gators didn’t make the cut. I do believe Florida will improve upon last season’s losing record as head coach Billy Napier enters into his second year in Gainesville. They actually won this matchup last year, but were inconsistent the rest of the way. Utah has the home field and probably thinks they have an outside shot at a playoff berth, but QB Cam Rising suffered an ACL tear in The Rose Bowl and might not be 100% just yet. His status makes me a bit skittish, but I’m sticking with the home favorites. Zach believes it’ll be tight until the end, but feels like the favorites will win by a touchdown. This is a Thursday night game on ESPN, which is perfect since I’ve got a busy weekend but Thursdays are usually quite mundane.
My Pick: Utah
Zach’s Pick: Utah
Nebraska (-7) at Minnesota
There seems to be some level of excitement about the Cornhuskers, which is surprising since they haven’t had a winning season since 2016. The Scott Frost Era was a total bust and Matt Rhule is the man in charge now. You may recall that Rhule was quite successful at Temple, had one great year at Baylor after a rough start, then moved on to the Carolina Panthers for a few forgettable years before deciding he’s better off as a college coach. The Golden Gophers have had back-to-back nine win seasons, which is probably their ceiling in the rigorous Big Ten. This is a tough call because normally I’m a huge home field guy, but the visitors are solid favorites. What do the oddsmakers know?? These teams have met 63 times since 1900, with Minnesota leading the all-time series 36-25-2. They’ve won the last four contests. I believe Rhule will fix the issues that have been plaguing Nebraska and might even win this game, but I foresee it being closer than a touchdown. Zach predicts Rhule will eventually lead his team to success, but Minnesota has the edge in the trenches where games are truly won.
My Pick: Minnesota
Zach’s Pick: Minnesota
Miami (OH) at Miami (FL) (-17)
It’s the Battle of Miami!! I’m a little tired of waiting for the Hurricanes to return to their 90s glory, and I don’t believe they’ll ever be a dominant force in the current football landscape. However, I do think that much traveled head coach Mario Cristobal can do better in his second year and achieve a winning record. The RedHawks haven’t had a ten win season since 2010, and have barely had two winning seasons in that timeframe. Those points are pretty big, but I don’t think the home team will have any issues covering. Zach concurs, opining that the ‘Canes will win easily.
My Pick: Miami (FL)
Zach’s Pick: Miami (FL)
Colorado at Texas Christian (-21.5)
A lot of questions will be answered in this game. Let’s be honest, Deion Sanders wasn’t hired to be the Buffaloes head coach because of his 27-6 record in three years at Jackson St. He got the job because Colorado has only had two winning seasons since 2005 and has been lost in the PAC 12 shuffle since foolishly joining in 2010. With Coach Prime at the helm people are talking about the Buffs for the first time since the early 1990s. Conversely, the Horned Frogs shocked the world by earning a spot in the playoff last season and actually beating Michigan before getting shellacked in the title game by Georgia. Can they sustain that success after eight players moved on to the NFL?? Let’s not overlook the fact that they didn’t even win the Big 12 title game, so I assume that’ll provide motivation. The bottom line is this – Colorado has been rebuilt to an unprecedented degree thru the transfer portal and should have low expectations, while TCU may no longer be a playoff contender but should still be a solid team. The points concern me a bit, but ultimately I think the favorites cover with ease. Zach is hoping for a big upset, although he doesn’t think it’ll actually happen. However, he does believe the underdogs will hang tough and keep it close.
My Pick: TCU
Zach’s Pick: Colorado
Boise State at Washington (-14)
I’m a little disappointed that it’s a 3:30pm kickoff. It seems like a matchup tailor made for one of those 10pm EST games I love so much. At any rate, the Broncos don’t seem to be getting as much love from the talking heads as they did when they were winning New Year’s bowl games & upsetting Power 5 opponents, but they won 10 games a year ago. Perhaps part of their perceived decline is the fact that they haven’t won a conference title in a few years. Whether that changes or not this season really has no connection to this game, in which the Huskies come in with high expectations of their own. QB Michael Penix could be a Heisman contender if he stays healthy, and a showdown in the PAC 12 title against USC, Utah, or Oregon is a possibility if all the dominoes fall correctly. I believe this will be an entertaining & competitive game for awhile, but the home team will pull away late and cover comfortably. Zach thinks Washington has a chance to get into the playoff and doesn’t believe they’ll have any problems winning this game.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
Texas-San Antonio (-1.5) at Houston
I am quite surprised that the Roadrunners are favored. Houston has the home field and is entering their inaugural season in the Big 12, whereas UTSA, as successful as they’ve been the past two years, still represents the AAC. The Cougars haven’t been a bad team and have been in the AAC title conversation the past few years before jumping conferences. Whether or not they’ll be competitive in the Big 12 remains to be seen, but they’d certainly make a statement by upending a UTSA team that’s won 11+ games each of the past two seasons. This could be the hidden gem of the entire holiday weekend slate, and I might have to click on over to FS1 Saturday evening to check it out. I think the oddsmakers are onto something and the visitors will squeak by with a winning field goal. Zach points out that both squads averaged more than 35 points/game a year ago and likes the home team to prevail in a shootout.
My Pick: UTSA
Zach’s Pick: Houston
North Carolina (-2.5) at South Carolina
It looks like the ‘Cocks will have some stiff competition on their home field Saturday afternoon, and the oddsmakers are giving them the shaft. Can Tar Heels QB Drake Maye thrust himself into Heisman contention, or will the defense make it hard for him to score?? Will the offensive line provide adequate protection, making sure to pull out on blocks just in time?? If Maye’s drives down the field climax with more touchdowns than field goals it could result in a huge victory, but if he is unable to penetrate deep into the red zone UNC fans could be left unsatisfied. Zach likes the Heels to win a high scoring affair.
My Pick: North Carolina
Zach’s Pick: North Carolina
LSU (-2.5) vs. Florida State
It’s been awhile since anyone had high expectations for the Seminoles, but head coach Mike Norvell enters his fourth season on the heels of winning 10 games and defeating Oklahoma in a bowl game. Having said that, the folks in Baton Rouge have legit hopes for success as well. This is a “neutral” site game in Orlando, which is about three times closer to Tallahassee than The Bayou, so the powers-that-be aren’t fooling anybody. It’s also being played on Sunday evening, which is fine by me. These are both preseason Top 10 teams in most polls, although I have LSU ranked a bit higher & Florida St. rated a little lower. Nothing would surprise me, but I think the Tigers will earn a hard fought victory. Zach’s brother is a big LSU fan and believes they’ll be in the playoff, but Zach isn’t so sure given the tough road in the SEC. However, he does think they’ll get off to a good start with a win in this game.
The NFL season kicks off Thursday night, so y’all are getting bonus picks!! Honestly…it has nothing to do with the fact that I was 2-3 last week and Zach extended his season lead by going 3-2. Nothing at all. Really. There are intriguing matchups in the college ranks as well, despite the fact that many teams are still in the non-conference portion of their schedule. We’ll talk more about the college playoff next week, but atleast in this moment we’re all the beneficiaries of programs chasing those scant four spots by beefing up their early season slate. Enjoy it while you still can.
My Season: 3-7
Zach’s Season: 7-3
Alabama (-20.5) at Texas
A decade ago this would’ve been a marquee matchup. The talking heads will still try to sell it as such, relying on the history & tradition of both programs. However, the truth is that Texas has only had one ten win season since ‘Bama beat them in the 2010 National Championship Game. The Longhorns are pinning all their hopes on freshman QB Quinn Ewers and will be making an idiotic move to the SEC in the not-too-distant future. Meanwhile, Nick Saban opined awhile back that last season…in which they were 13-2 & lost the national title to Georgia…was a rebuilding year for the Tide. So despite any creative PR tactics the fact is that anything else besides Texas getting their ass handed to them would be a surprise. Having said that, the points are kind of eye opening, given the fact this game is being played in Austin (Alabama’s first trip there in 100 years). Can the home team atleast keep it respectable?? Sadly I don’t believe they will. Zach observes that ‘Bama is consistently well coached, disciplined, & fundamentally solid, while Texas is merely mediocre. He thinks that may change when QB Arch Manning arrives on campus next year, but for now believes this will be an easy win for the visitors.
My Pick: Alabama
Z’s Pick: Alabama
Houston at Texas Tech (-3)
The Cougars went into three overtimes before defeating the UTSA Roadrunners in the season opener. Conversely, the Red Raiders beat the snot out of Murray St. Houston is better than what we saw last weekend, while Tech will be facing legit competition for the first time, so I expect an entertaining contest, but I think the home favorites get a solid victory. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Z’s Pick: Texas Tech
Iowa State at Iowa (-3.5)
With all the realignment hullabaloo one would think the powers-that-be could get these two in the same conference, but not thus far. The Cyclones beat up a glorified high school team to open the season (one reason why they’ll not be playoff contenders), while the Hawkeyes barely defeated South Dakota St. in an epic 7-3 battle that was either a masterpiece of defense or set the game of football back several decades. I didn’t see the game or any…highlights…so I cannot intelligently opine. At any rate, this is the first real test for both teams and I’m expecting good things. It’ll be on the Big Ten Network and I’ll certainly check it out. I think State will score the mild upset. Zach believes we’re in for a low scoring defensive battle that the home team will win.
My Pick: Iowa State
Z’s Pick: Iowa
Arizona State at Oklahoma State (-11.5)
I have lofty expectations for the Cowboys, but it’s a bit alarming that they allowed Central Michigan to score 44 points last weekend. Will their offense need to score nearly 60 points in every game?? Conversely, the Sun Devils’ defense allowed only a field goal in their nearly 40 point season opening win. I love my guy Herm Edwards, but it’s way too early to abandon my bold preseason predictions, so I’m going with the home favorites. Zach notes that OK St. consistently underperforms & doesn’t seem to live up to their potential, which is true. However, he likes the home field in this one and foresees a big blowout win for the Cowboys.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Z’s Pick: Oklahoma State
USC (-9) at Stanford
Everybody is paying attention to the Trojans once again, and they got things started off right with a 66-14 beatdown of Rice. Stanford also won their prosaic season opener. And now, while some teams are pussyfooting around with clearly inferior opponents & others are trying to gain attention with aggressively scheduled non-conferences clashes, these teams are diving right into the conference scrum. Stanford has the home field, and I think that’s significant. Do I believe the home underdogs will win?? No. However, I foresee a closer than expected contest that Southern Cal wins by only a touchdown. Zach thinks USC will cover with a hard fought double digit victory.
My Pick: Stanford
Z’s Pick: USC
Baylor at BYU (-3)
The Bears beat someone unimportant by nearly 60 points in the season opener. Obviously they’re not serious about being a playoff contender. BYU could go undefeated and still get left out of the playoff conversation, but kudos to them for scheduling decent competition to open the season and getting a solid victory. This could be the game of the week, so if you’re not doing anything on Saturday night at 10pm tune into ESPN & check it out. These were two Top 10 teams in my preseason poll, so I have high expectations. The Cougars have the home field and I predict that’ll matter late in the 4th quarter. Conversely, Zach thinks it’ll be Baylor’s defense that’ll come up big late in the game to secure a win.
My Pick: BYU
Z’s Pick: Baylor
Buffalo (-2.5) at LA Rams
The Bills are a solid Super Bowl favorite, while very few seem to be giving the defending champion Rams as much respect as they probably deserve. They aren’t even favored at home. Could this be a Super Bowl preview?? Maybe…maybe not. Either way it’s a hell of a way to kick off the season, and I think it’ll be a close game. Things might go differently in February, but for now I believe the underdogs will defend their turf & prove their title run wasn’t a fluke. Zach agrees, opining that the Bills may be a bit overrated.
My Pick: LA Rams
Z’s Pick: LA Rams
Kansas City (-4.5) at Arizona
It feels like both teams should be getting more love, but the fact that they compete in the two most stacked divisions in the NFL means they both have difficult paths to the Super Bowl. Have defenses figured Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes out after five seasons?? Perhaps, but the biggest reason people are doubting him right now is the departure of receiver Tyreek Hill. Can a pass catching corps of Mecole Hardman, former Steeler Juju Schuster, rookie Skyy Moore, & veteran tight end Travis Kelce pick up the slack & fill the void left by one of the most exciting players in the league?? The Cardinals are another team being disrespected on their home field, but there are reasonable doubts. Former Raven Hollywood Brown was a nice acquisition for the receiving corps, especially given the six game suspension of DeAndre Hopkins, but AJ Green is 34 years old & not the same receiver he used to be. Having said that, I’m more concerned with Arizona’s defense. JJ Watt has lost a step and Tyrann Matthieu signed with the Saints. I think this will be a shootout, but KC has a little too much firepower and will take over in the 4th quarter. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Kansas City
Z’s Pick: Kansas City
Las Vegas at LA Chargers (-3)
As previously mentioned, the AFC West is going to be a dogfight, and we might look back on this one a few months from now & realize it was more important than we realized. I’m a Derek Carr fan, and it’s going to be fun watching him throw passes to former Packer Davante Adams. Unfortunately I think Adams is going to face a lot of double coverage, so it’ll be up to the rest of a rather pedestrian receiving corps to step up, RB Josh Jacobs to fulfill his potential, & tight end Darren Waller to return to his Pro Bowl form of 2020 after a subpar, injury riddled season last year. Don’t sleep on their defense, which added former Cardinals’ pass rusher Chandler Jones. The Chargers fell into the abyss a few years ago but have slowly been rebuilding with the likes of QB Justin Herbert & linebacker Joey Bosa, and they’ve added former Raider & Bear Khalil Mack, who can still be a beast despite the fact he’s on the wrong side of 30. If the Chargers can avoid major injuries their defense will be a force and the team could surprise people. Having said that, I’m picking the mild upset this week. Zach agrees.
After last weekend’s craziness the playoff committee released their rankings as follows: Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati, Oklahoma St., Notre Dame, & Ohio St.. That’s the Top 7 and no one else really matters. Barring any upsets in the conference title games (a huge IF if there ever was one) the essential questions are these: a) how far will the loser of the SEC Championship fall?? & b) can Oklahoma St. leapfrog Cincinnati if they win the Big 12 title?? Notre Dame is screwed because they’re sitting at home while these other teams are still playing. They need Cincinnati AND Oklahoma St. to lose, and even then the 4th playoff spot could go to Ohio St.. At any rate, our marathon of picks during Rivalry Week turned out slightly better for me (6-3) than Zach (2-7), and the lineup is even more packed this weekend. Unfortunately I have plans Friday & Saturday so I probably won’t be watching much of the action. I should be able to keep up with the scores frequently though.
My Season: 43-43
Zach’s Season: 32-54
C-USA
Western Kentucky at UTSA (-2.5)
The first time these teams met on October 9 in Bowling Green, KY the Roadrunners won a high scoring shootout, so the rematch has the potential to be a lot of fun. I’m pretty pissed that my Marshall Thundering Herd isn’t playing in this one, but they blew their chance in spectacular fashion. Texas-San Antonio has the home field and that’s enough for me. Conversely, Zach feels like momentum favors the Hilltoppers and he thinks they’ll eek out a close win.
My Pick: UTSA
Z’s Pick: Western Kentucky
PAC 12 (Las Vegas, NV)
Utah (-3) vs. Oregon
I am intrigued. When these teams met on November 20 in Salt Lake City the Utes scored a huge 38-7 victory and ended Oregon’s playoff aspirations. Will the Ducks face a similar fate on a neutral field?? I don’t think so. It’ll be much closer this time, and I think the underdogs have what it takes to pull off the mild Friday night upset. Zach, on the other hand, believes Utah is firing on all cylinders right now and has a better team with superior athletes. He agrees that it’ll be closer than the first contest between these two, but thinks the favorites will win again.
My Pick: Oregon
Z’s Pick: Utah
Big 12 (Dallas, TX)
Oklahoma State (-7) vs. Baylor
On October 2 the Bears went into Stillwater and were defeated 24-14, but this game is being played at Jerry World, aka The Palace in Dallas, so there is no home field advantage. The Cowboys could earn a playoff spot if Cincinnati loses, and a convincing win could make the debate interesting even if Cincy wins. I don’t expect anything to be drastically different than the first meeting, and with (potentially) so much at stake I believe we’re looking at another solid OK St. triumph. Zach is impressed by State’s defense and likes their offensive line, but foresees a tight ballgame that could be decided by a late or overtime field goal.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
Z’s Pick: Baylor
Mountain West
Utah State at San Diego State (-3.5)
I don’t know who makes the schedule, but c’mon man!! I should be able to hunker down in my warm bed late at night and watch a fun west coast battle, but instead we’re getting a 3pm EST kickoff. Anyway, these teams have not previously met this season, which is a rarity in conference title games. The 9-3 Aggies face a tough task going into hostile territory against the 11-1 Aztecs, who are riding a four game win streak. I don’t expect anything too crazy and believe the home team will win comfortably. Zach likes Utah St.’s ground game but feels like San Diego St.’s defense will come alive in the second half to secure a win.
My Pick: San Diego State
Z’s Pick: San Diego State
AAC
Houston at Cincinnati (-11)
The Bearcats are causing me a considerable amount of cognitive dissonance. I’m an underdog guy. Always have been, always will be. That being said, I am just not sure Cincinnati belongs in the playoff. They deserve kudos for going thru their schedule undefeated, but are they truly on the level of any Power 5 opponent they’d face in the semifinal?? I have serious doubts. My feelings about this game are further complicated by the presence of current Cougars & former WVU Mountaineers head coach Dana Holgorsen. We expected big things from him in the Mountain State, and he was a fairly decent 51-38 in seven seasons at the helm. However, Holgorsen clearly wasn’t happy here and jumped at the chance to take the Houston job. Both of these teams will be members of the Big 12 in the near future, so the rivalry will continue to grow. This particular contest isn’t hard to pick for me because the points are just too much. Cincy will probably win, but it won’t be a double digit victory. Zach doesn’t think Cincinnati belongs in the playoff but doesn’t believe the committee will deny them if they win this game. However, he foresees Holgorsen having his team ready to pull off the upset. If that happens no one will be happier than the CFP committee.
My Pick: Houston
Z’s Pick: Houston
MAC (Detroit, MI)
Northern Illinois vs. Kent State (-5.5)
I used to be a big fan of MACtion. Their random Tuesday or Wednesday night games were a treat. To be honest though, it’s been a few years since I’ve paid any attention to the conference. I vaguely recall when the Huskies went 12-2 in 2012 and lost to Florida St. in the Orange Bowl. NIU quarterback Jordan Lynch finished third in Heisman voting in 2013 behind Alabama QB AJ McCarron & winner Jameis Winston, the quarterback at Florida St. As far as this game, the Golden Flashes are 7-5 and led a rather weak field in the MAC West, while NIU is a solid but unspectacular 8-4 and were beaten by three TDs in their last game. When these teams met just a few weeks ago Kent won a 52-47 shootout, although NIU scored 20 fourth quarter points as their spirited comeback fell short. I suppose there’s a chance it could be a sneakily entertaining contest, but I’m leaning toward Kent winning by double digits. Conversely, Zach likes NIU to pound the rock and score the upset.
My Pick: Kent State
Z’s Pick: Northern Illinois
Sun Belt
Appalachian State (-3.5) at Louisiana
This is my sleeper pick for best game of the week. On October 12 the Mountaineers traveled to Lafayette and suffered a 41-13 loss, so I’m a bit surprised by the odds. The Ragin’ Cajuns haven’t tasted defeat since losing the season opener at Texas, but it seems like they’re not getting much respect. Perhaps the impending departure of head coach Billy Napier to the Florida Gators is a factor. Otherwise, do the oddsmakers have some inside info, or are they simply making assumptions?? I don’t know. Given the current circumstances and taking what we know at face value I have to lean toward the home team scoring a mild “upset”. Zach predicts special teams will play an important role in an App. St. victory.
My Pick: Louisiana
Z’s Pick: Appalachian State
SEC (Atlanta, GA)
Georgia (-6.5) vs. Alabama
As a certain former President might say, this game is YUUUGGGEEE. Not only will an SEC Champion be crowned, but there are major playoff implications. If Georgia wins they’re in, but it is entirely possible that they could lose yet not fall out of the Top 4. And what about ‘Bama?? Obviously they’d be in with a victory, but what happens if they lose?? Will the committee twist themselves in knots trying to justify only dropping the Tide to #4?? The simplest outcome is also the most likely…the Bulldogs win & cover and remain #1, while Alabama drops to #5 and is denied another National Championship opportunity. That’s what I’m hoping to see. As much as Zach respects Nick Saban he just doesn’t think this Alabama team measures up to their predecessors. He thinks Georgia has the best defense in the country and the offense is pretty good too. He’s predicting a big Bulldogs victory.
My Pick: Georgia
Z’s Pick: Georgia
ACC (Charlotte, NC)
Pitt vs. Wake Forest (-2.5)
Good Lord, could there be a more underwhelming matchup?? The ACC really needs Clemson & Florida St. to figure things out because the rest of the conference is a snoozefest. Credit where it is due though, as the 10-2 Panthers have won four straight, while the Demon Deacons lost two of their final four games but still finished 10-2. The game is theoretically being played at a neutral site, but Wake will enjoy a quasi-home field advantage since their campus is only an hour away. That’s enough for me to predict a mundane & unremarkable victory for the favorites. Zach likes Pitt QB Kenny Pickett and believes he will have a great day picking apart Wake’s defense.
My Pick: Wake Forest
Z’s Pick: Pitt
Big Ten (Indianapolis, IN)
Michigan (-9) vs. Iowa
I’m not a mental health expert, but I know that folks with bipolar disorder experience extreme highs followed by extraordinary lows. I also understand that it is sometimes difficult for athletes to sustain a high level of intensity. Therefore, my question is what do the 11-1 Wolverines have left in the tank after their magnificent beatdown of Ohio St.?? This game isn’t at The Big House against their archrivals, but they are playing for their first Big Ten title since 2004 and a playoff berth that could lead to their first National Championship since 1997. Theoretically that should be ample motivation, right?? The 10-2 Hawkeyes fell off the radar after two consecutive October losses, yet here they are on a four game winning streak. Closer examination reveals that they won those four games by an average of less than 5 points against teams that are collectively 19-29. In other words their schedule was frontloaded, and they didn’t face Michigan or Ohio St.. Iowa’s most impressive victory was a home game against Penn St., a 7-5 team that lost four out of six games in the second half of the season. I don’t think there’s any way Michigan loses this game. However, I can see a dropoff in energy leading to the final margin of victory being a touchdown or less. Zach is also concerned about an emotional letdown for his beloved Wolverines, as well as the enormous pressure they face in restoring the program to its former glory. He points out that Iowa has won 5 out of the last 7 matchups between the two schools. Having said all of that, he isn’t picking against Michigan again (although it did work a week ago).
Annnnnnndddd we’re back!! Football has returned, and so have my nephew Zach & myself to prove that we’re just as smart as the talking heads on ESPN & other sports news outlets. The goal is simple for me my friends…to make it thru the season. Last year we didn’t get past Week 10 because I ended up spending the latter half of November, all of December, & the first part of January in the hospital. There are moments in life when one is faced with obstacles and what matters becomes clear. In the grand scheme of things I understand that this blog, these picks, and football games in general don’t mean a whole lot, but I am so blessed & grateful to be able to exercise my creative juices and embrace my love of something as ultimately frivolous as sports. It may seem silly to some, and I have several friends who’ll spend their weekends doing a hundred other things before watching a ballgame even crosses their mind. That’s cool…but I am totally psyched about spending the next five months of weekends engrossed in one of the most awesome forms of entertainment on the planet. If you have entered The Manoverse to check out these picks I assume we’re in agreement on that.
As usual college football starts before the NFL, but fortunately the playoff system has forced teams to re-evaluate their schedule strength. Back in the old days (just a few years ago) we’d be lucky to get even a few watchable, competitive games in the first couple weeks of the season. However, now the powers-that-be recognize the importance of coming out of the gate with a bang and grabbing some attention, so there are a plethora of games on tap that are worthy of attention. We’ll settle into our normal routine of picking five games next week, but will get things started with some bonus picks. As always I remind you that we are just fans and claim no intimate insider knowledge. Also, point spreads are included only to add a layer of intrigue & strategery. We are not here to encourage or endorse gambling, although what y’all do with your disposable income is your choice. Enjoy.
Oklahoma (-10.5) vs. Houston
I have the Sooners as my pre-season #2, with Houston also in the Top 10. This game is being played at the home stadium of the NFL’s Houston Texans rather than the Cougars’ normal home field, which shouldn’t make a difference one way or another except that there will be 70k in the stands versus 40k. Houston, TX is over 400 miles away from Norman, OK, so I assume there will be a distinct fan partiality for the underdogs. I suppose that there are those who feel like there is a legitimate chance for an upset. I am not one of those people. So then the question becomes whether or not Oklahoma will cover the points. I don’t anticipate that will be an issue. If Houston can stay within three TDs then finish the remainder of the season without another loss they still might be a solid Top 10 team. Zach believes this game will be a blowout win for the Sooners.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Z’s Pick: Oklahoma
UCLA at Texas A&M (-3)
The Bruins return QB Josh Rosen from a solid yet underachieving 9-5 team last season. However they lost RB Paul Perkins & LB Myles Jack to the NFL. Is Rosen the next Andrew Luck?? Or is he the next Jimmy Clausen?? I’m willing to bet he’s closer to the former than the latter. The bigger concern is UCLA’s defense, which gave up anywhere from 31-56 points in those five losses in 2015. The Aggies have the nominal home field point advantage, but I suspect that in reality the benefit will be greater. A&M’s QB situation has been interesting the past few years. 2015 starter Kyler Murray transferred to Oklahoma and will be the Sooners’ signal caller this season. Kenny Hill, who began 2014 as the top QB in College Station, transferred last year and will be the starter for the TCU Horned Frogs. Last season at A&M Murray lost his job to Kyle Allen, who has now transferred to Houston. So who is starting for A&M behind center?? Well…that’d be Trevor Knight, who was Oklahoma’s starter in 2014 before losing the job last year to Baker Mayfield, who had transferred to Oklahoma from Texas Tech. I think I have all of that straight. I don’t know…my head is spinning a bit. At any rate, I am looking for this to be a high scoring, close game, but I like the Aggies to win & cover. Zach not only doesn’t agree about the outcome, but is oddly unenthusiastic about watching this game.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Z’s Pick: UCLA
Georgia (-2.5) vs. North Carolina
The Bulldogs have a new head coach for the first time in 15 years. Mark Richt has moved on to Miami, FL, and former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart takes over the reins in Athens. Georgia is coming off a 10-3 finish last season and RB Nick Chubb returns after missing the latter half of 2015 with a knee injury. I suspect that Smart will have the defense ready to rock & roll, but I have questions about the state of Chubb’s recovery and what else Georgia has on offense if they are unable to completely rely on their star running back. The Tar Heels had a fine 11-3 season last year, but must start anew at the quarterback position. However they do return most of last year’s contributors elsewhere, including WR Ryan Switzer & RB Elijah Hood, who is a 6ft. 220lb. hoss. This is a “neutral” site game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta, meaning it’s not really all that neutral. Despite that fact I’m going to roll the dice and pick the upset. Kirby Smart doesn’t have Nick Saban around anymore, and I think it might take him some time to grow into his new role. Zach thinks special teams will be the key, and he is picking the upset as well.
My Pick: North Carolina
Z’s Pick: North Carolina
Notre Dame (-3.5) at Texas
Charlie Strong’s critical season begins with a huge game against a tough opponent, but fortunately for the Longhorns the game is in Austin. The Irish lost over a dozen players to the NFL. It looks like they’ll be giving time behind center to both QBs DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire, who missed most of last season with a broken ankle. But who will they be throwing or handing off to, and who’ll be protecting them?? And can the defense find new stars to replace those that have moved on?? Texas is in the third year of the Strong era, and the first two haven’t gone well. 6-7 & 5-7 doesn’t cut it in the Lone Star State folks. But here a fantastic opportunity presents itself…a non-conference game at home against a much heralded team that must replace a huge chunk of their roster and may not be on solid footing early on. Word on the street is that Texas will be starting a hotshot freshman QB. Heck…why not?? Nothing else has worked. This could be considered a must-win for Texas, as the Big 12 (which has ten teams) schedule is usually always tough. It’s probably not the wise choice, but I’m rolling with another upset here. Zach thinks that Notre Dame’s on-field changes & off-field issues will catch up to them and once again is picking the upset.
My Pick: Texas
Z’s Pick: Texas
LSU (-10) vs. Wisconsin
Leonard Fournette. Learn it. Love it. You’ll be hearing the name a lot this year. The Tigers’ RB begins the season as the early Heisman favorite after racking up 22 TDs and almost 2000 yards rushing in 2015. Unfortunately three late season losses and a poor showing against Alabama (31 yards, 1 TD) doomed his Heisman chances and his team’s season. The opener is another “neutral” site game that isn’t neutral, as it is being played on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Well okay…I think it’s safe to assume the weather conditions in early September won’t be quite so chilly. At any rate, the Badgers are coming off a solid 10-3 season, and tough opening games aren’t anything new for them. In 2015 they lost to Alabama and in 2014 it was a close loss to…LSU. I don’t think the pattern will be broken this year, and I don’t believe the Bayou Bengals will have any problem covering the points. Zach sees LSU as a serious national title contender.
My Pick: LSU
Z’s Pick: LSU
Arizona (-1) vs. BYU
The Wildcats finished 2015 with a mediocre 6-6 record, with a lot of high scoring games for both they & their opponents. The Pac 12 is a brutally tough conference, which makes it essential to win non-conference games. BYU is an independent, and their schedule is probably one of the toughest in the nation. This was the case last season as well and the Cougars finished an impressive 9-4. Three of those losses were by a total of 13 points. They play atleast seven teams who could challenge for a Top 25 ranking, although it looks to be a frontloaded docket, meaning if they can get to November with a decent record they’ll have an opportunity to finish strong. I don’t know enough about either team to intelligently analyze the rosters, so this is a total vibe game, and I’m going with the underdogs. Zach believes in Rich Fraudriguez’s spread offense and looks for the ‘Cats to put up some big passing numbers.
My Pick: BYU
Z’s Pick: Arizona
USC vs. Alabama (-10.5)
This is a big one…or atleast it should be. A matchup pitting two of college football’s most decorated programs against each other in Week 1 would have been unheard of not long ago. Having said that, one must ponder whether Southern Cal can currently claim that elite status. After records of 7-6, 9-4, 9-4, & 7-6 the last few years there is no doubt that the Trojans have been good…but not that good. Meanwhile, as we all know, the Tide has rolled to four national titles in nine seasons in the Nick Saban era. If ‘Bama loses more than one game it is major news. That’s got to end at some point, right?? I don’t know…we’ll see. This is a true neutral site game at the Palace in Dallas, so I’m not sure either team will have a notable crowd advantage. Until I see some significant chinks in the armor I can’t go against Alabama. They’ll have a tough time getting thru a super strong SEC unblemished, but I think they’ll easily win & cover this game. Zach concurs, predicting a 35 point win for ‘Bama.
It’s time!! Glorious football is back!! A bunch of stuffed shirts & bean counters have done their darndest the past several years to ruin the game…conference realignment, draconian rules in the name of “safety”, a long awaited playoff system that is flawed and makes the stark contrast between the haves & have nots even more apparent. Nevertheless, for the next few months weekends will be even sweeter as fans will have several hours of couch potato worthy entertainment available at their fingertips. One positive change that has emerged in the wake of the four team playoff is a focus on strength of schedule, meaning that there are more competitive games in the first few weeks of the season than ever before. Oh sure there are still cupcake games, but their value is so diminished under the playoff system that coaches & athletic directors have been forced to up the ante just a bit. In Week 1 alone I am seeing over a dozen matchups that probably wouldn’t have been on the schedule just a few years ago. And you know who the winners are?? That’s right…you & me…the fans. As far as my methodology in putting together these rankings…well, I really can’t say I have much of a method. I do know a few things. I know that everyone can’t finish undefeated. I know that “power” conference teams cannibalize each other, with big wins sometimes cancelling out big losses…and vice versa. Teams from “lesser” conferences certainly aren’t going to make it to the playoff, and just one or two losses can significantly impact their ranking. I don’t do a ton of research for this because it’s supposed to be fun not work, but I do try to pay attention to things like coaching changes, substantial personnel losses from players moving on to the NFL or simply graduating, and any other turmoil that may have affected a program in the offseason. It is difficult for more than a few teams from a single conference…even the big boys…to end up ranked, so one basically must develop a hierarchy. Which teams will be in the hunt for the conference crown and possibly a playoff spot?? Which ones will be good, but lose a couple of games and end up in the lower tier of the poll?? Which teams…despite their talent and vast praise from the talking heads…will finish on the outside looking in?? I’m not an expert so for me it’s just a guessing game based on my vibes & minimal data, but that’s okay. I’d still put my “expertise” up against many members of the sports media who don’t know half as much as they’d like us to believe they do. At any rate, let’s dive in.
1 Clemson
Last Season: 14-1
Key Games: 9/3 at Auburn, 10/1 vs. Louisville, 10/29 at Florida St.
The Tigers fell just short of winning the national championship last season, but they return QB DeShaun Watson, who looks like the second coming of Cam Newton. That’s good enough for me to put them in this spot, although they’ll need to overcome a hostile crowd in Tallahassee right before Halloween and take down the Seminoles.
2 Oklahoma
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 9/3 vs. Houston, 9/17 vs. Ohio St., 10/8 vs. Texas, 12/3 vs. Oklahoma St.
I’m predicting that the Big 12 (which has 10 teams) will be a little down this season, leaving the Sooners as the clear favorites. They have tough non-conference games against Houston and Ohio State, but both are in the friendly environment of Norman, OK. QB Baker Mayfield & RB Samaje Perine return, and both could be in the Heisman discussion.
3 Alabama
Last Season: 14-1
Key Games: 9/3 vs. USC, 10/15 at Tennessee, 11/5 at LSU, 11/26 vs. Auburn
Putting The Tide at #1 would be too easy & predictable and that’s not how I roll. The SEC is just too darn tough…I’d be shocked if anyone came thru it unscathed. The season opener against Southern Cal is a neutral site game at the Palace in Dallas and it won’t be easy. Then ‘Bama has to travel to Knoxville & Baton Rouge. It would surprise me less if this team actually lost 3 or 4 games than it would if they’d go undefeated.
4 Ohio State
Last Season: 12-1
Key Games: 9/17 at Oklahoma, 11/5 vs. Nebraska, 11/19 at Michigan St., 11/26 vs. Michigan
Remember last year when the Buckeyes had three legit QBs and no one knew how playing time would be distributed?? It’s a way different story this season, as both Cardale Jones and Braxton Miller (who switched to WR) are plying their trade in the NFL. That means it’s JT Barrett’s show, and that’s a good thing. Now the question becomes how to replace RB Ezekiel Elliott & defensive standout Joey Bosa. It’s also worth noting that the Big Ten (which has 14 teams) looks like it could be even stronger than usual. I might be ranking this team a little too high given all the obstacles they face, but until someone knocks them off the pedestal I have to give them benefit of the doubt. The opener at Oklahoma will be super tough, but even if Ohio St. loses that game they could still win 10 games and end up in this spot.
5 LSU
Last Season: 9-3
Key Games: 9/3 vs. Wisconsin, 10/8 at Florida, 11/5 vs. Alabama
We’ve been waiting a few years for the Bayou Bengals to climb back into legit national title contention, and many seem to believe this is the season. RB Leonard Fournette will be in the thick of the Heisman debate. A 31 yard effort against Alabama killed the young man’s momentum last year so it’ll be really interesting to watch that early November contest to see if he can do better.
6 Florida State
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/5 at Ole Miss, 10/8 at Miami FL, 10/29 vs. Clemson, 11/26 vs. Florida
The Seminoles have enjoyed a relatively smooth ride thru the ACC over the years, winning 15 conference titles since 1992. However, I think things might be a little tougher than usual this season. Clemson visits Tallahassee, so that helps. That game could very well decide not only the conference but also a spot in the national title playoff. I also expect the early October tilt at Miami to be more like it was back in the old days when both teams were elite.
7 Tennessee
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/24 vs. Florida, 10/1 at Georgia, 10/15 vs. Alabama
Could this finally be the year that the Volunteers return to national prominence and actually contend for the SEC title?? A lot of people seem to think so. They haven’t won 10 games in a season since 2007 and are on their 3rd head coach since Phillip Fulmer’s departure after the 2008 season. However I think Butch Jones is finally the one. They’ve improved every year under his guidance and if that upward trend continues the Vols might get to 10 wins this year. They host Alabama in Knoxville which is advantageous.
8 Houston
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 9/3 vs. Oklahoma, 11/25 at Memphis
Everyone fawns over the “power” conference darlings, but there are five “other” conferences and someone’s got to win them, right?? The Cougars easily won the American Athletic Conference last season and upset Florida St. in the Peach Bowl. They finished in this very spot in the final poll despite an inexplicable loss at Connecticut. I don’t believe they’ll beat Oklahoma in the season opener, but if they can atleast keep that game respectable then run the table they will have the opportunity for another big post-season victory and a Top 10 finish.
9 Iowa
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 10/1 vs. Northwestern, 10/22 vs. Wisconsin, 11/12 vs. Michigan, 11/25 vs. Nebraska
Two Big Ten teams finishing in the Top 10 wouldn’t surprise anyone…but which two teams do you prefer?? The Hawkeyes got off to a hot start last season before ending the year with two losses…a close call against Michigan St. and a beatdown by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. The toughest games on the schedule all happen to be at home this year, so that’s positive. Being overlooked is nothing new for Iowa, but objectively speaking I think another 10 win season is easily within their grasp.
10 Temple
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: 9/17 at Penn St., 10/6 at Memphis, 10/29 vs. Cincinnati
I suppose I’m hedging my bets a bit with two AAC teams in the Top 10. That probably won’t happen. Back in the day when my WV Mountaineers played the Owls annually they were pretty much the doormats of the now defunct Big East and their home games were usually poorly attended snoozefests. But last year something clicked. They beat Penn St. in the opener, lost a close one to Notre Dame, & made it to the conference title game. The Irish aren’t on the schedule this season, so it isn’t unreasonable to think that they could be even more successful, and if they find a way to go into Happy Valley and take down the Nittany Lions again that’d be the cherry on top. Could an AAC title game rematch against Houston actually be a highly anticipated, eminently entertaining contest?? Whoa…that’s crazy talk!!
11 Michigan
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 10/1 vs. Wisconsin, 10/29 at Michigan St., 11/12 at Iowa, 11/26 at Ohio St.
Let’s pump the brakes a bit on the Wolverines, okay?? I just finished reading a rather interesting book called End Zone, about the slow implosion of the Michigan athletic department & football team over the past several years. Of course all of those issues seemed to fade away into the ether the minute Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach last season, and now all the talking heads are throwing Michigan out there as a potential playoff contender. Upon his hiring I did say that Harbaugh would have this team in national title contention within three years, and one thing I Iearned from the aforementioned book is that former coach Brady Hoke, while probably not ready for prime time as far as game management goes, was well liked, highly respected, & a good recruiter. Harbaugh took the talent that was already there last season and won ten games, up from five victories in 2014. An impressive turnaround indeed. However I am just not ready to put them in the playoff hunt quite yet. They have to go on the road for their three biggest games, and I think they could lose atleast two of them. Jim Harbaugh will get Michigan into the playoff eventually…but not yet.
12 Boise State
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 10/20 vs. BYU, 11/25 at Air Force
The Broncos did their usual last season…9 wins, an impressive bowl victory…except that they didn’t compete for the conference championship. I think they can do better this year. Non-conference games against BYU, Washington St., & Oregon St. are important but not vital. They’ll be out for revenge against Air Force, with the winner of that game likely making it to the Mountain West title game. That’s the goal for Boise, and I think meeting those expectations combined with the attrition of various powerhouses beating each other up might propel the Broncos solidly into the Top 20.
13 Utah
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/23 vs. USC, 10/8 vs. Arizona, 11/19 vs. Oregon
The Pac 12 really should end up having a team ranked much higher than this, but it’s a tough conference and I think it’s possible that they all cannibalize each other into 9-3 records requiring tiebreakers to see who ends up in the title game. The Utes have their biggest games at home so I’m giving them a slight advantage.
14 Notre Dame
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/4 at Texas, 9/17 at Michigan St., 10/15 at Stanford, 11/26 at USC
Looking at the schedule I am not at all sure that the Irish will win enough games to climb this high. It’s going to be really tough. Is Texas back to being Texas?? Can Michigan St. find a new QB?? Is Stanford being overrated by the talking heads or underrated by me?? Is Southern Cal ready to take back the spotlight?? The answers to all of these questions affect Notre Dame. I’d be shocked if they’re anywhere near the playoff conversation, yet they always seem to find a way to be competitive and win big games. And they ended the Michigan rivalry (for now) just in the nick of time.
15 Oklahoma State
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 11/24 at Baylor, 10/1 vs. Texas, 12/3 at Oklahoma
While I think Oklahoma is the clear favorite in the Big 12 (which has ten teams) I am picking their in-state rivals from Stillwater to be a respectable runner-up. Texas may or may not be up to par quite yet, and unlike many “experts” I believe too much has transpired at Baylor in the off season for them to be serious contenders. That leaves the Cowboys, who could conceivably come into that first weekend in December undefeated to face the also undefeated Sooners. That really would be Bedlam.
16 Northern Illinois
Last Season: 8-6
Key Games: 11/9 vs. Toledo
Much like the AAC the MAC gets overlooked in the substantial shadow of the “power” conferences. MAC games get relegated to Tuesday or Wednesday nights on ESPN, but that’s just fine with me. I rather enjoy the brand of football their teams play. The Huskies won the conference title in 2014 but fell off just a bit last season, losing their last three games, including a shellacking by Boise St. in the Poinsettia Bowl. I’m venturing out on a limb and predicting that they’ll get back to 10 wins, a feat they achieved five straight seasons before last year.
17 BYU
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/3 vs. Arizona, 9/10 vs. Utah, 9/17 vs. UCLA, 10/8 at Michigan St.
The Cougars used to be a mainstay in this pre-season poll, but they kept disappointing me so I left them off the last couple of years. I’m like my father though…I can’t stay mad at anyone for long. The great & awful thing about BYU being independent is that they have freedom in scheduling. Freedom is cool, but also a little daunting when the powers-that-be fill the calendar with tough games against top flight opponents. They could start the season 3-0…or 0-3. Most likely it’ll be somewhere in the middle. But things don’t get much easier from there, with October games against Michigan St. & Boise St. If I had money on it or a weapon being held in my face I’d say 7-5 would be a solid record for such a difficult schedule. However since I’m just having some fun I’m going to hope for a couple of upsets. 9 wins against this imposing lineup of opponents would be quite impressive.
18 Louisiana Tech
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/3 at Arkansas, 9/17 at Texas Tech, 10/6 vs. Western Kentucky
Someone’s going to win C-USA. My heart belongs to the ol’ alma mater…my Marshall Thundering Herd. Nothing would make me happier than to see them end up in this spot, but I’m trying to be objective or something. I don’t know. The season opener against SEC foe Arkansas is a bit daunting, but an upset wouldn’t be shocking. Can the Bulldogs run the table after that even if they don’t get the win in that first game?? It’s possible. I feel like a lot of talking heads and opposing coaches might overlook this team due to RB Kenneth Dixon moving on to the NFL. That might be perfectly valid…or a huge mistake.
19 USC
Last Season: 8-6
Key Games: 9/3 vs. Alabama, 9/23 at Utah, 11/19 at UCLA, 11/26 vs. Notre Dame
The Trojans have only won 27 games the past three seasons. That would be great for most teams, but this is not most teams. Finishing outside the national title conversation and playing in a December bowl game is not good enough for the folks in Southern California. Head coach Clay Helton was given the job last year after the dismissal of Steve Sarkisian, and one must assume that he has a very short leash. Finishing with 8 or 9 wins against a challenging schedule would go a long way toward some job security.
20 Michigan State
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 9/17 at Notre Dame, 9/24 vs. Wisconsin, 10/29 vs. Michigan, 11/19 vs. Ohio St.
The Spartans looked great last season, with only a controversial loss in the waning seconds against Nebraska as a blemish. But then they ran into a buzzsaw in the playoff semifinal, getting rolled by the Tide. Because they have to replace QB Connor Cook and O-Lineman Jack Conklin I foresee just a little dropoff. Not much. They’ll still be a good team…just not winning a conference title or in the playoff conversation.
21 Texas
Last Season: 5-7
Key Games: 9/4 vs. Notre Dame, 10/1 at Oklahoma St., 10/8 vs Oklahoma, 10/29 vs. Baylor
This is it. In Charlie Strong’s first two seasons as head coach he has an 11-14 record. I think this is a make or break year for him. Either he wins 8+ games or he’s unemployed. The pre-Halloween game against Baylor might be a critical contest. If the Longhorns can’t beat the Bears in Austin after everything that has occurred in Waco the past several months then perhaps Strong deserves to be shown the door.
22 Arizona
Last Season: 7-6
Key Games: 9/3 vs. BYU, 10/1 at UCLA, 10/8 at Utah
Did I mention that the Pac 12 is a really competitive conference?? I’m kind of sad actually, because my current job entails me leaving for work at about 10pm on Saturday nights, which means I will miss out on the pleasure of staying up til 1am watching those last few west coast games that are oftentimes a lot of fun. Ah well…c’est la vie. Anyway, the Wildcats fell off last season after winning 10 games in 2014. Can they get back on track?? Both RB Nick Wilson (725 yards rushing, 8 TDs) and QB Anu Solomon (2600+ yards passing, 20 TDs) return, although the defense must replace linebacker Scooby Wright who has moved on to the NFL. I think improving to 8 or 9 wins in a tough Pac 12 will be good enough to sneak into the rankings.
23 Miami, FL
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 10/8 vs. Florida St., 10/29 at Notre Dame
After being one of the elite teams of the 1980’s & 90’s the Hurricanes have endured some struggles the past decade, not winning 10 games since 2003. But there’s a new sheriff in town. Head coach Mark Richt won 74% of his games in 15 seasons at Georgia, and now he returns to his alma mater to help them achieve the success that eluded the past 2 or 3 coaches. Miami has shown flashes of their former glory the past few years but couldn’t quite get over the hump. I don’t expect them to compete for a conference title, especially with Clemson & Florida St. standing in the way, but 8 or 9 wins doesn’t seem like an unreasonable goal.
24 Nebraska
Last Season: 6-7
Key Games: 9/17 vs. Oregon, 10/29 at Wisconsin, 11/5 at Ohio St., 11/25 at Iowa
I might regret this pick, but I’m going to take a chance anyway. Back in the day when I was growing up Nebraska was one of the cornerstone programs of college football. I don’t know if it is location, bad management, poor coaching, or a move to the Big Ten a few years ago, but the Cornhuskers seem like a forgotten team nowadays. They are 24-15 over the past three seasons, including last year’s disaster under first year coach Mike Riley. They have been completely eclipsed in the news cycle by Ohio St., Michigan, Iowa, Michigan St., and even Wisconsin & Northwestern. If Riley has another subpar season he might be another guy on the chopping block, but if he can guide his team to a couple of upsets and get to that 8/9 win level then he’ll live to coach another season in Lincoln.
25 Oregon
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/17 at Nebraska, 11/5 at USC, 11/12 vs. Stanford, 11/19 at Utah
The Ducks have won atleast 9 games in each of the past nine seasons. That’s impressive. I honestly couldn’t name one member of the team without using Google, but I know that Oregon seems like one of those programs that just reloads instead of rebuilding, and while they certainly won’t be in the national title conversation or probably be a legit threat to win the conference I think it is likely that they win 8 games and score an upset or two along the way.
The Manofesto 