Kansas State

2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 15

Do you want the good news or the bad news?? I suppose it doesn’t really matter, as it’s all about perspective. We were both a dismal 3-7 last week, meaning Zach maintains the season lead. It also means that I’ve fallen below .500, which doesn’t make me happy. We’re ending the college football portion of our programming with Championship Weekend, with some games occurring Friday night & some on Saturday. I am not sure how much football I’ll get to watch because this weekend begins a pretty full dance card for the entirety of December, but in contrast to being laid up in a medical facility for the Christmas season I can’t complain. 

My Season: 41-43

Zach’s Season: 43-41

C-USA Championship 

North Texas at Texas-San Antonio (-8.5)

With all due respect, I am glad my Marshall Thundering Herd escaped Conference USA, which is basically a starter pack league. That being said, I’m kind of digging this game because the teams involved have cool names. I suppose I am easily entertained. I cannot opine with any level of confidence except to say that the Roadrunners won the title a year ago & have the home field advantage. By the time this game ends on Friday night (it’s on the CBS Sports Network in case you’re interested) I expect that they will have defended their championship and overcome the Mean Green. Zach likes UTSA’s offense in a blowout that’ll be all but over by halftime. 

My Pick: UTSA 

Z’s Pick: UTSA

PAC 12 Championship

Utah vs. Southern California (-3)

It’s pretty simple for the Trojans…win & they’re in The Playoff. One would think that’d be plenty of motivation. However, don’t count out the 9-3 Utes. Granted, they backed into this game via a weird tiebreaker system despite the fact they lost to Oregon a few weeks ago, but we cannot overlook the fact that Utah actually defeated the Trojans in mid-October. That game was decided by a gutsy 2 point conversion in the final minute, and it should be noted that it was in Salt Lake City. Can they do it again on a neutral field?? I’m on the fence to be quite honest, but enjoy playoff controversy and generally lean toward the underdog, so I’m pulling for an upset, whether it’s a smart move or not. Zach predicts a shootout, but thinks USC quarterback & Heisman front runner Caleb Williams is a difference maker. 

My Pick: Utah 

Z’s Pick: USC 

MAC Championship 

Toledo (-1.5) vs. Ohio

There was a brief period of time when I occasionally enjoyed some MACtion when they’d have midweek games on ESPN, but it’s been awhile. This is a neutral site game in Detroit, so there’s no home field advantage. The 7-5 Rockets have lost their last two games, while the 9-3 Bobcats have won seven straight. It’s a Noon kickoff Saturday on ESPN, which might hook some viewers tuned into Gameday, including me. Momentum is obviously leaning toward Ohio, while the oddsmakers like Toledo. When in doubt follow the money, right?? Zach has issues with the entire state of Ohio, but he’s picking the Bobcats in a coin flip. 

My Pick: Toledo 

Z’s Pick: Ohio 

Sun Belt Championship 

Coastal Carolina at Troy (-10.5)

It ticks me off that the Herd aren’t in this game. How in the hell does a team upset Notre Dame in South Bend, then lose to Bowling Green?? My guys were also beaten by the 10-2 Trojans, who come into this game as double digit favorites on a nine game winning streak. The Chanticleers are 9-2 themselves, but could be without the services of starting QB Grayson McCall, who has been suffering from an ankle injury. Coastal got trucked by James Madison last week without McCall, so the prognosis isn’t good if he’s out again. They dominated time of possession in that game with over 40 minutes, but punted nine times & had two turnovers. Zach believes Coastal will be fired up after last week’s stunning loss, and he foresees a rebound win. 

My Pick: Troy 

Z’s Pick: Coastal Carolina 

Mountain West Championship

Fresno State at Boise State (-3.5)

We haven’t talked much about the Broncos this year, but they’re 9-3 on a three game winning streak. The 8-4 Bulldogs started slow but have won seven games in a row. It’s a 4pm Saturday kickoff on Fox, and unfortunately I probably won’t get to see the 4th quarter. Will the contest be decided by then?? Probably not, but I like Boise to come out on top on the infamous blue turf. Zach thinks it’ll be a low scoring defensive struggle, with the home team getting a close victory. 

My Pick: Boise St.

Z’s Pick: Boise St. 

AAC Championship 

Central Florida at Tulane (-3)

The American is another conference that doesn’t hold their title game on a neutral field, which makes it feel like a second rate rematch. The 10-2 Green Wave lost to the 9-3 Knights just a few weeks ago. That game was also in New Orleans, so I don’t know why anyone would expect a different outcome this time. Zach is expecting another competitive contest, but also thinks the outcome will be the same. 

My Pick: UCF 

Z’s Pick: UCF 

Big Ten Championship 

Purdue vs. Michigan (-16.5)

I’m not sure what to think about this one. The undefeated Wolverines are clearly a better team and will secure a spot in The Playoff with a victory. Even with a loss…unless they are inexplicably blown out…I expect Michigan is in the Final Four, although that’s certainly not a guarantee. Having said that, Indianapolis is only an hour away from the 8-4 Boilermakers’ home base, so they might enjoy a slight “home field” advantage. Michigan put so much into defeating Ohio St. last week that this becomes a classic trap game. Throw in the questionable health of RB Blake Corum & a two TDs+ point spread, and all the sudden the picture becomes somewhat murky. Of course the Wolverines rushing attack looked just fine a week ago, with sophomore Donovan Edwards averaging over 9 yards/carry on his way to over 200 yards & two touchdowns. Still, the fact is that the favorites just need to win…they don’t need to win big. So what if they’re up 15-20 points in the fourth quarter & the defense is playing well?? Could they take their foot off the gas just enough for Purdue to cover?? That’s what I’m predicting. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Purdue

Z’s Pick: Purdue 

ACC Championship 

Clemson (-7.5) vs. North Carolina 

I knew it. When ranking Clemson 11th in my preseason poll I said “will they be back in the playoff picture this season…I don’t think so….the only shot Clemson has is to go undefeated in convincing fashion & lay a smackdown on Notre Dame in South Bend”. Instead, the Tigers lost by three TDs to the Irish, were narrowly defeated by in-state rival South Carolina last weekend, and sit 9th in the ranking, just about where I predicted. But…are the 9-3 Tar Heels worthy competition?? Charlotte is a truly neutral site & both teams are coming off losses, so essentially it comes down to coaching & talent. As much as I respect UNC coach Mack Brown I believe Dabo Swinney is better right now, and he has superior talent. Zach likes Carolina to keep it close & atleast cover in a high scoring shootout.

My Pick: Clemson 

Z’s Pick: North Carolina 

Big 12 Championship 

Kansas State vs. Texas Christian (-2.5)

The unbeaten Horned Frogs have more riding on this game than perhaps any other team playing this weekend. If they win they’ll be in The Playoff, but I am not at all confident in their chances of being amongst the Final Four with a loss. Let’s face it…the powers-that-be are chomping at the bit for an excuse to insert Ohio St. or Alabama back into the mix. Meanwhile, with everyone’s attention focused on Fort Worth, TX, the 9-3 Wildcats have quietly put together a pretty solid season. I think this will be a hell of a game for awhile. Much like Michigan, TCU just has to win…they don’t need to blow away the competition. The difference is the points are negligible in this one. When the two teams met back in October TCU score a comfortable ten point victory. It might be a little tighter this time, but I expect a similar outcome. Zach agrees. 

My Pick: TCU

Z’s Pick: TCU

SEC Championship

LSU vs. Georgia (-17.5)

LSU is a confusing team. They began the season with a surprising loss to Florida St. in New Orleans, then won a few games before getting demolished by Tennessee at home. They beat Alabama, but finished the season losing to a Texas A&M team that couldn’t even achieve bowl eligibility. Conversely, the #1 Bulldogs have cruised thru an unblemished schedule, unless you want to hold an early October scrape against Missouri that wasn’t decided until late in the 4th quarter against them. They call this a “neutral” field, but I’m pretty sure most of the 75k people on hand in Atlanta will be leaning a certain way. However, a couple of things must be considered. First, Georgia has played in five SEC title games since 2017 and won only once. Secondly, they are going to The Playoff no matter what, it’s just a matter of seeding. All things considered, I believe the points are simply too much. I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright Bayou Bengals victory, but the more likely scenario is that LSU plays balls to the wall, Georgia rests most of their starters in the second half, and the favorites end up winning by less than ten points. Conversely, Zach doesn’t believe it’ll be any different than most other games on Georgia’s schedule, and thinks they’ll win handily. 

My Pick: LSU

Z’s Pick: Georgia 

2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 9

Greetings football fans & citizens of The Manoverse. I’m running just a little behind schedule for no real reason, but it’s all good as long as we get this posted for the masses before kickoff. This is exactly why we rarely pick Wed./Thurs./Fri. games, because I know  how I get sometimes. Anyway, before we can move forward we have to tie up loose ends from last week. I was 3-0 in the games I solely picked, while Zach was 1-2. In the four games we both picked Zach was 1-3 while I was 2-2. That means overall I was 5-2, Zach was 2-5, and the season lead has changed hands. It might not last long, so allow me this moment. There are several intriguing games on the college schedule this weekend, but many of them seem to involve teams we just dealt with, and I prefer to mix things up a little. Therefore we are leaning heavier toward the NFL. That’ll probably flip flop next go round. 

My Season: 26-20

Zach’s Season: 24-22 

UCLA at Oregon (-6)

The Ducks are on a five game win streak after dropping the season opener against defending national champs Georgia. The Bruins are undefeated. That means this is a matchup of two Top Ten teams seeking to remain in the playoff conversation. This is going to be a high scoring game (the over/under is 70.5), which could mean a few things: a) special teams might make the difference, b) turnovers are critical, & c) penalties will play a key role. I’m going to roll the dice on the home team being able to cover, but to be honest I wouldn’t be shocked if it was closer than that. Zach really believes in UCLA’s offense and thinks they’ll live up to expectations. 

My Pick: Oregon 

Z’s Pick: UCLA 

Kansas State at TCU (-4)

As a lifelong WVU fan I’d prefer to see my Mountaineers atop the Big 12 standings, but it’s atleast refreshing to see teams other than Oklahoma & Texas battling for the conference crown. The Horned Frogs are undefeated, while the Wildcats only have an inexplicable loss to Tulane blemishing their record. Both teams can put up points, so I believe the thing to watch for is which defense will step up in a big moment. TCU is coming off a huge overtime victory against Oklahoma St., and it’s difficult to reach those emotional highs two weeks in a row, so I’m picking the upset. Conversely, Zach likes the home team to keep their momentum going. 

My Pick: Kansas State

Z’s Pick: TCU 

NY Giants at Jacksonville (-3)

Thus far my preseason assessment of the Giants has been way off base. They’ve already won four more games than I predicted they’d win all season. My thoughts on the Jaguars have proven a bit more accurate, as they are certainly headed in the right direction & QB Trevor Lawrence has shown flashes of potential, but they’re unlikely to be a legit playoff threat. I like the home team this week, but it’ll probably be tighter than I’d prefer. I’ll probably be sweating a bit in the 4th quarter. Zach believes new Giants’ head coach Brian Daboll has successfully changed the culture in his first season, which makes a lot of sense when you look at his previous assistant coaching stops (Alabama, NE Patriots, Buffalo Bills). 

My Pick: Jacksonville 

Z’s Pick: NY Giants 

NY Jets at Denver (-3)

Before the season began I predicted that we’d see clear improvement by the Jets, but they’d still finish at the bottom of a tight division. I’m not backing off of that just yet. I also said the Broncos would be a wildcard contender, but the AFC West isn’t shaking out at all the way I thought, although it’s still early. Is it possible that the trade that sent Russell Wilson to Denver could become one of the worst transactions in NFL history?? I’m not ready to go there at this point, but it’s fair to say that the deal hasn’t paid dividends for either team so far. The home field is a unique edge for Denver, but not insurmountable, so I’m going with the upset. Zach likes the Broncos defense, but doesn’t believe their offensive line is capable of protecting Wilson. 

My Pick: NY Jets 

Z’s Pick: NY Jets 

Pittsburgh at Miami (-7)

Typically we don’t pick games involving our Steelers, but rules are made to be broken, right?? No one expects anything from Pittsburgh this season, but after upsetting “The GOAT” (not 🙄) last week with a depleted secondary, without sack monster TJ Watt, & a tandem effort by quarterbacks Kenny Pickett & Mitch Trubisky, it remains within the realm of possibility that this team could achieve unforeseen success in an inferior division. QB Tua Tagovailoa will be back for the Dolphins, and it’s certainly plausible that he & receiver Tyreek Hill could carve up the Steelers’ defense like Michael Myers in Haddonfield on All Hallows’ Eve, but I don’t believe that’s what will happen. I don’t know how, but I think the Black & Gold will march into south Florida and escape with a victory. Zach has faith in the Steelers’ defense despite all their injuries, and thinks they’ll get enough stops & turnovers to keep it closer than a touchdown and perhaps even lead the team to a huge win. 

My Pick: Pittsburgh 

Z’s Pick:  Pittsburgh 

2021 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 1

Football season really snuck up on me!! There were actually a few college games last weekend, but I didn’t realize it until the night before. I suppose I’m a little out of practice since we took a break from these picks a year ago. Thankfully those games, which ESPN called Week Zero (seriously), weren’t anything…notable. But this week?? Folks, we have interesting matchups from Thursday to Sunday, which is great since our local Italian Heritage Festival…a northcentral WV tradition for over four decades…has been cancelled for the second straight year due to The Sickness and I suddenly find myself with no weekend plans other than watching football. A big shoutout to my nephew Zach who will once again be doing picks with me this season. Two years ago he ended the season with a .500 record of 52-52, while I was 61-43. Zach has already called his shot and predicted that he’ll best me this season. We’ll see.

Boise State at Central Florida (-5)

Neither team is really in the “Group of 5” spotlight anymore, and both are probably praying they’ll get invited to “move up” in the upcoming conference realignment chaos. The Broncos finished 5-2, skipped out on bowl season, and their head coach bolted for Auburn. New head coach Andy Avalos was a longtime Boise St. assistant before spending last season as the defensive coordinator at Oregon. After three straight 10+ win seasons (including going undefeated in 2017) UCF fell to 6-4 a year ago, including a bowl loss to BYU. UCF gets the home field bump in this Thursday night game, but I think Boise comes into town and steals a win for their new coach. Zach concurs, predicting a high scoring affair in which the Broncos’ ground game makes the difference.

My Pick: Boise St.

Z’s Pick: Boise St.

Ohio State (-13.5) at Minnesota

I have defending CFP runner-up Ohio St. as my preseason #1, while Zach despises them with the white hot intensity of a thousand suns. The Gophers had won bowl games in 4 out of the previous 5 seasons before last year’s pedestrian 3-4 campaign. I’m not holding anything bad that happened a season ago against anyone, so there is reason to believe that they could be a winning team once again…but Minnesota isn’t beating the Buckeyes. The points make me a bit nervous, but I think the favorites roll big & cover easily. This is also a Thursday night game. Zach doesn’t think Ohio St. will have any issues replacing departed QB Justin Fields, and they may even get into the playoff again…but will choke once they arrive. As far as this game, he calls the Gophers scrappy and believes they could stay close for atleast a half, but at the end of the day the favorites will win.

My Pick: Ohio St.

Z’s Pick: Ohio St.

North Carolina (-5.5) at Virginia Tech

The Tar Heels are a Top 10 team according to some polls, but not mine. I think they’ll have a nice season, but they aren’t winning the ACC. The Hokies haven’t had a 10 win season since 2016, and a year ago they finished 5-6. How’s that move to the ACC working out for them?? I know Tech has the home field, and strange things happen at Lane Stadium after dark, but I foresee a blowout for the favorites on Friday night. Like myself, Zach has doubts about Carolina’s playoff worthiness, but thinks they’ll be pretty good. He believes this will be a closer game than I do, but still predicts the Heels will cover.

My Pick: UNC

Z’s Pick: UNC

Stanford at Kansas State (-2.5)

The Wildcats have been getting some pre-season love and should be in the top half of the Big 12 after finishing 4-6 a year ago. Meanwhile, Stanford feels like a forgotten team in the Pac 12, which seems unfair. Putting aside last year’s 4-8 finish, Stanford had won 9+ games eight of the previous nine seasons. Kansas St. has the home field, but I think it’ll be a comfortable win for the visitors. Zach recalls that Kansas St. oftentimes begins the season strong before fading away, but thinks Stanford’s size & strength will make the difference.

My Pick: Stanford

Z’s Pick: Stanford

Penn State at Wisconsin (-5.5)

This might end up being one of the best games of the (real) opening weekend. After winning 11 games in three of the previous four seasons the Nittany Lions were a pedestrian 4-5 in 2020, but I’m not concerned at all. The Badgers had won 10+ games in five of the previous six seasons until last year when they were 4-3. Both teams will be looking to put a forgettable season behind them, and I look for both to be successful in that endeavor. The loser here is behind the proverbial 8-Ball right out of the gate though, and I think that’ll be Penn St. Look for Wisconsin to run the ball a lot and their offensive line to wear out the opposing defense before surging to victory in the 4th quarter. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Wisconsin

Z’s Pick: Wisconsin

Fresno State at Oregon (-21)

The Ducks are my pre-season #3, and if they’re going to get the playoff committee’s attention a dominant victory in the season opener would be a good start. Fresno seems to have a solid team more often than not, but they’re not winning this game. Can Oregon cover the points?? I think so. Conversely, Zach foresees first game jitters for Oregon being just enough to allow Fresno to keep things closer than three TDs.

My Pick: Oregon

Z’s Pick: Fresno St.

Alabama (-18.5) vs. Miami (FL)

There was a time when this would have been the top matchup of the week. Unfortunately ‘Bama has simply gotten too good (and boring), while the ‘Canes aren’t the powerhouse they once were. Still though, given the storied history of both programs, if we close our eyes and use our imagination we might be able to fool ourselves into believing this is a game awash in nostalgia & greatness. The truth?? As decent as Miami has been lately they’ve only gotten to nine wins three times in the past decade and The Tide will roll in Atlanta. Can they cover the points?? Sure. I think Alabama wins by three TDs. Zach is a big Nick Saban fan and thinks the favorites pull away in the second half for a comfortable win.

My Pick: Alabama

Z’s Pick: Alabama

Georgia vs Clemson (-4)

This is the best game of the weekend. Both teams have legit playoff hopes. The Dawgs face a formidable schedule and will need to beat Alabama in the SEC title game. Conversely, this is the toughest game of the season for Clemson until they get to the ACC Championship. It won’t be easy, but I believe Georgia waltzes into Charlotte, NC and steals a late victory via turnover or some kind of special teams wackiness. Zach also thinks it will be close, but foresees Clemson winning by a touchdown in the last three minutes of game.

My Pick: Georgia

Z’s Pick: Clemson

Notre Dame (-7) at Florida State

Since the NFL doesn’t begin their season until next week this is a Sunday night game, which is cool. Can the Seminoles regain some semblance of their former glory after being a dumpster fire the past few years?? I’m not sure whether or not that’ll happen, but if so it won’t be in this game. The Irish have their eyes on another 10+ win season, something they have accomplished five out of the past eight years, including a playoff appearance a year ago. I predict more of the same in 2021, including an easy win in this one. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Notre Dame

Z’s Pick: Notre Dame

2014 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

5-0 baby!! I’m almost positive I’ve never done that before.

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I have to be honest. I was really really down last weekend. My WV Mountaineers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory due to the poor decision making of their drunken head coach, and my undefeated Marshall Thundering Herd were being totally disrespected by the talking heads. I was so bummed after the WVU loss that I just turned my TV off and went to sleep at 7:30pm. The last time I went to bed that early I was in trouble with my parents. I had pretty much made up my mind to break up with sports altogether. After church Sunday I didn’t watch a minute of the NFL on Redzone, and I didn’t even watch my beloved Steelers defeat the hated Ravens on Sunday Night Football. I was prepared to end these picks as well. You see, I am a firm believer in a kind of male menstrual cycle, and as I emailed my friend The Owl Sunday evening, I was “in a very dark place” and felt “as if I could mow thru a crowded room with a machete and laugh like a giddy child.” Thankfully when the gloom overtakes me I know that if I just disengage for a day or two factory settings will be restored and I regain my emotional equilibrium. Not that I’d ever actually hurt anyone anyway. I am far too delicate for prison. I am much more likely, to paraphrase a line from the 2004 rom-com Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!, to tear someone to pieces with vicious rhetoric.

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At any rate, I couldn’t abandon these picks, especially after my brilliant prognosticatory ability led me to a perfect record. I can’t let down my nephew Zach or the citizens of The Manoverse. While I was going 5-0 Zach was going 3-2, so for the season I am 30-25 and he is 28-27. There are several great college games this week that…theoretically…should add clarity to this 4 team playoff deal. Or maybe it’ll just become a bigger mess than it already is. For God’s sake I am actually starting to miss the BCS.

 

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Baylor at Oklahoma (-5.5)
oklahomaThe Big 12 doesn’t have a title game (or 12 teams), but the regular season conference champion might have a decent shot at being one of thebaylor chosen four playoff teams. The Sooners are probably on the outside looking in at a three team race between TCU, Baylor, & Kansas St., but they can certainly play the role of spoiler. This is a must win for the Bears and I am a little surprised that they aren’t favored even though they are the visiting team. Oklahoma’s two losses…to the aforementioned TCU & Kansas St…were by a total of 5 points. I’d be surprised if this game is much different, but I’ll roll the dice. Zach doesn’t think Oklahoma has a chance and predicts the game will be over by halftime with Baylor winning by atleast 4 TDs.

My Pick = Oklahoma
Z’s Pick = Baylor

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Notre Dame at Arizona St. (-2.5)
Arizona_State_logo_blanketThe Sun Devils would need a lot of things to go right for them to make the playoff, but an appearance in the Pac 12 title game certainly NotreDameFightingIrishseems feasible. Meanwhile, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see the Irish jump back into the national championship picture if their only loss is to an overrated Florida St. team that they clearly outplayed on a call that was dubious to say the least. Unfortunately for Notre Dame I think they receive the death blow in this game and will be eliminated from playoff contention. Zach notes that Notre Dame is “good at beating small conference schools”, which I think may be a big ol’ flip of the bird to the Pac 12.

My Pick = Arizona St.
Z’s Pick = Notre Dame

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Kansas St. at TCU (-5.5)
kansas-state-dmThis essentially is a de facto Big 12 championship contest. The winner would almost certainly leap into atleast being on the cusp of the TCU_Horned_Frogsplayoff. I have watched both teams play this season, and in my opinion it all comes down to coaching. Kansas St.’s Bill Snyder won’t be outcoached the way that West Virginia’s head lush was last weekend. Zach believes that Horned Frogs’ QB Trevone Boykin will win the game with his legs.

My Pick = Kansas St.
Z’s Pick = TCU

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Ohio St. at Michigan St. (-3.5)
Ohio_State_BuckeyesThe Buckeyes are too far down on the totem pole to snag a playoff spot, but they can be spoilers while also securing a spot in the Big Ten Michigan_State_Spartans(which has 12 teams) title game. Meanwhile, the Spartans are in a dog fight for one of those four playoff spots. A win in this game would certainly help, while a loss would likely be the knockout punch. This is one upset that no one seems to be predicting, so I suppose I will be a trailblazer. Zach has a robust disdain for Ohio St. (no one knows why) and is going with Michigan St. all the way.

My Pick = Ohio St.
Z’s Pick = Michigan St.

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Alabama (-6.5) at LSU
Can the Bayou Bengals do it again?? A couple of weeks ago Zach & I correctly predicted the LSU upset of then #3 Ole Miss. LSU is coming into this game well lsu_logorested after a bye week. The Tide are also coming off a bye, so neither team has the advantage there. ‘Bama just hasn’t seemed to be firing on all cylinders this season yet they are a Top 5 team as usual and have won the last three meetings in this series rather handily. I think the momentum shifts back to the underdogs in 2014 and the game will be decided…one way or another…by 3 points or less. Zach concurs.

My Pick = LSU
Z’s Pick = LSU

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 10

Well, I did it. I gave myself a bye week. It was actually kind of an accident. As usual Friday night snuck up on me, but I had other things going on and just wasn’t in a football kind of mood. But now we are back on track. Right now I am 26-43 and have discovered much to my surprise that the NFL is actually easier to forecast than the NCAA. I would have thought it’d be the other way around.

 

 

 

 

Louisville (-1.5)           at                     Syracuse

I suppose since I put both of these teams in my pre-season Top 25 I have an obligation to pick their game. Louisville has actually fared even better than I thought and currently find themselves undefeated & in the Top 10. The Orange, on the other hand, aren’t quite there yet. They need to win 2 out of their final 3 just to break even and possibly sneak into some lower tier bowl game that no one will watch. I don’t think it’s gonna happen this year, and I don’t think Louisville will have much trouble winning this game. I am a bit surprised the spread is so small.

 

 

Oregon State              at                    Stanford (-4)

This should be an excellent game. Both teams are ranked in the top 15 and could sneak into Rose Bowl consideration if the Oregon Ducks make it to the national championship game. But first they need a victory here. I am going to go against my usual modus operandi of leaning toward the home team by picking a slight upset. I have watched both teams play a couple of times and the Beavers seem like a better team.

 

 

Kansas State (-6)                     at                    TCU

K-St. is in a real battle with Oregon to see who’ll earn the right to be defeated by Alabama in the title game. It looks like, because of the way the BCS computer calculate the various criteria, that the Ducks will ultimately be that team, assuming both they and the Wildcats remain undefeated. But can K-St. stay unbeaten?? The majority of the experts seem to think so, and who am I to argue?? However, I sincerely believe that the Horned Frogs are a very talented team that shouldn’t be overlooked. I think Kansas State wins this game, but it very well might be in OT or with a last second field goal. So I’ll take TCU to cover the points.

 

 

Oregon (-28.5)                  at                California

Wow…both Oregon & Oregon State on the slate this week?? Call it the Charlie Simms Special. Hooah!! Anyway, if the Ducks can stay clean in their remaining games they’ll earn the right to lose to Alabama in the national championship game. They’ll get one of those wins here, but by how much?? The spread…more than 4 TDs…is awfully big. Obviously the 3-7 Golden Bears aren’t that good, but are they that bad?? I get very nervous about huge spreads like this, but Oregon has motivation. They need “style points” to impress voters and get all the BCS advantages they’ll need to edge Kansas State for #2. They have beaten every opponent they have faced soundly…three TDS or more…except Fresno St. (who they defeated by 17) and the USC Trojans, who they edged by 11 points. Something tells me this spread is just a bit too big and that Oregon will win by only 20-25 points.

 

 

Tennessee                    at                 Miami (-6)

The 3-6 Titans get starting QB Jake Locker back this week, which should be a big boost. However, the 4-4 Dolphins have won 3 out their last 4 games and have lost 3 games by a total of 9 points, two of them in overtime. Miami feels like a team on the rise, while Tennessee seems like they are stuck in neutral. But with the exception of a 30-9 trouncing of the beleaguered NY Jets every Dolphin victory has been very close, so the 6 point spread looks rather large and I don’t have any faith that Miami can cover, so Tennessee gets the nod.

 

 

Detroit (-2.5)                at              Minnesota

I had these teams combining for just 11 wins in 2012 in my season preview. Instead they have 9 victories between them already, just past the halfway point of the season. That being said they are both afterthoughts in a division with the Packers & the Bears. I’m not saying the playoffs aren’t a possibility for either club, but it’s going to be a tough road. So this game is all about pride. Unfortunately for the Vikings their star wideout Percy Harvin is likely to be watching this game from the sideline due to an ankle injury, and that will likely cripple their offense. That makes the Lions an easy choice.

 

 

Atlanta (-2.5)                  at              New Orleans

In my pre-season predictions I said about the NFC South that “The surprise might be in Atlanta, where I’m just not sold on the Falcons. QB Matt Ryan will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and by then I think he’ll be ready to flee The Peach State.” and said they’d finish 7-9. I may have been slightly wrong since the Falcons are the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten team. On the flip side I said that “I do not believe that a team can go through the turmoil that the Saints have experienced this offseason and not be affected.”, but still said they’d go 9-7 & win the division. The complete accuracy of that statement is still undecided. New Orleans did in fact get off to a rough start, but it remains to be seen whether they can recover and get back in the playoff hunt. It seems pretty clear that the division crown is out of reach, but a victory here could shift momentum in a positive direction and start a push toward a wildcard berth. I don’t believe for one second that Atlanta will go undefeated, and it might actually help them to lose now instead of at the end of the season. The Saints are the pick.

 

 

 

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