Alabama

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 13

It’s Rivalry Week in college football, and it is Thanksgiving. Warm wishes to The Manoverse for a delightful holiday filled with food, football, family, flicks, & fun. I’m not gonna lie…last week was brutal. I (2-3) edged out Zach (1-4), but that’s really not saying a whole lot. If the Texans would’ve covered a measly three point spread and if the Chiefs were capable of playing a shred of defense things would have turned out differently, but those things didn’t happen. I scored 133 points in my dynasty league and still lost, and my opponent didn’t even have the best week in the league because another team broke a six year old all-time single game scoring record. Needless to say I’m a bit perturbed with the NFL at the moment, but fortunately the timing is perfect. In-state & regional rivalries are the bedrock on which college football is built, but conference realignment in recent years has had a negative effect on such traditions. It seems like an effort is being made to remedy that, which makes me happy. I had a hard time choosing which games to focus on, so what the hell…we’re just going to pick most of them. I’m pretty sure we’ve never picked this many games in one week, but with both of us below .500 on the season this feels like a great opportunity to dig ourselves out of the hole (or sink inescapably deeper into the abyss).

My Season: 32-37

Z’s Season: 27-42

Mississippi State (-11) at Ole Miss

Why can only one of these teams be good in any one season?? This year it is the 7-4 Bulldogs that look solid, while the 5-6 Rebels are fighting for bowl eligibility. Ole Miss has the home field and something to play for so I’m going with the upset. Zach believes these are two mediocre teams with potential. He’s uncomfortable with the points so he’s picking the underdogs to atleast cover.

My Pick: Ole Miss

Z’s Pick: Ole Miss

BYU at Utah (-12)

The 6-5 Cougars are a perplexing program. I’m not sure why a conference like The Big 12 or Mountain West hasn’t scooped them up yet. Being independent doesn’t seem to be working out well. And I’m never sure what to expect from year to year. Conversely, things seem to be going just fine for the 8-3 Utes, who have already secured a spot in the Pac 12 title game. Is this a trap game?? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way the 12 points is too much. Zach gives props to BYU for beating Wisconsin earlier in the season, but he likes the home team in this one.

My Pick: BYU

Z’s Pick: Utah

Georgia Tech at Georgia (-17)

Could the Bulldogs be looking ahead to their SEC Championship clash against Alabama?? The Yellow Jackets are 7-4 and have only a bowl game to look forward to, but knocking their in-state rivalry out of playoff contention would be the cherry on top of a solid season. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but the points are just way too much. Zach thinks Tech’s triple option could cause issues for Georgia’s defense, but with a playoff berth possibly on the line he is going out on a limb and picking the favorites to cover the sizeable spread.

My Pick: Georgia Tech

Z’s Pick: Georgia

Nebraska at Iowa (-9.5)

The Cornhuskers are a dreadful 4-7, but have shown signs of life by winning 4 out of their last 5 games. Conversely, the Hawkeyes are 7-4 but have lost 3 of 4. These are two teams heading in the opposite direction, and I smell an upset (or atleast a close game). Zach is predicting a low-scoring defensive battle and thinks Nebraska has the hot hand.

My Pick: Nebraska

Z’s Pick: Nebraska

Virginia (-4.5) at Virginia Tech

Okay…here’s the deal. Tech comes into this game 4-6, and they had a game against East Carolina cancelled back in September due to Hurricane Florence. If the Hokies win this game they are one victory shy of bowl eligibility. A deal is in place where Tech would play a game against my alma mater the Marshall Thundering Herd, who also had a game at South Carolina cancelled because of the same hurricane. That game will only take place if the Hokies win here, which won’t be an easy task against the 7-4 Cavaliers. Traditionally Tech has a significant home field advantage, and I’m hoping that is the case once again. Conversely, Zach believes the Cavs will get the easy victory.

My Pick: Virginia Tech

Z’s Pick: Virginia

Oregon (-17) at Oregon State

They call this game The Civil War. It is one of the oldest rivalries in college football, having first been played 124 years ago. The two campuses are less that fifty miles apart, so I don’t think there is any true home field advantage. The Ducks come into the game 7-4, having had a real roller coaster season. The Beavers are 2-9, so their coaster seems to be broken. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but I’m picking the favorites to win easily. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Oregon

Z’s Pick: Oregon

Central Florida (-14) at South Florida

Way back when I did my pre-season rankings I placed the Bulls 12^th and had the Knights unranked. I said that “UCF is still getting much of the love from talking heads this pre-season, but I’m not buying it”, while posing the question “can USF steal the spotlight in 2018?”. Well, so far that thought process hasn’t quite come to fruition. South Florida is 7-4, while Central Florida remains undefeated and is a Top 10 team. Both teams have something to play for…pride for South, and remaining unbeaten for Central. The two campuses are little more than an hour apart, so the home field probably isn’t that big of a deal. I can’t pull the trigger on an upset, but I think the Bulls will keep it closer than two TDs. Zach likes UCF’s offense to carry them to an easy win.

My Pick: South Florida

Z’s Pick: Central Florida

Washington at Washington State (-2.5)

They call this The Apple Cup because Washington is the nation’s leading producer of…well, I’m sure you can guess. The Huskies were getting all the pre-season love, but at 8-3 have fallen short of expectations. Conversely, the Cougars are still in the playoff conversation, but they need a few dominoes to fall in front of them. The winner of this game will play Utah for the Pac 12 title, and I’m smelling an upset for the underdogs. Zach is predicting a really close game…possibly even overtime…to be won by the home team.

My Pick: Washington

Z’s Pick: Washington St.

Florida (-6) at Florida State

Wow…who could have predicted that this game would be a mere afterthought on a weekend full of other battles of much more interest & importance?? I truly thought the Seminoles would bounce back after a rough 2017 campaign, but at 5-6 they need a win to even become bowl eligible. The 8-3 Gators certainly aren’t terrible, but have been forgotten amidst all the love for Alabama & Georgia and even love for Kentucky & LSU. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the upset since Florida St. will be looking to extend their streak of 36 consecutive bowl game appearances. Zach likes the Gators’ defense to get the job done.

My Pick: Florida State

Z’s Pick: Florida

LSU (-3) at Texas A&M

Do I believe that two loss LSU should be a Top 10 team?? No. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t a dangerous opponent for anyone who goes up against them. At 7-4 A&M is just about what we thought they’d be…tons of potential with good things ahead, but not quite there yet. I can’t overlook the home field in this one and think the Aggies can pull off a mild surprise. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Texas A&M

Z’s Pick: Texas A&M

Kentucky (-17) at Louisville

It seems odd to be talking about this matchup on the football field instead of the basketball court, but that’s where we are. The Wildcats have had a really nice season and will land in a fun bowl location. Conversely, the 2-9 Cardinals have already fired their coach and look like they need to move to the AAC or C-USA because the ACC is just too good for them. I have no doubt that Kentucky will win, but the points concern me just a bit. I suppose it’s one of those “go big or go home” moments, right?? According to Zach Louisville is “garbage” and he likes Kentucky’s ground game to win big.

My Pick: Kentucky

Z’s Pick: Kentucky

Utah State at Boise State (-2.5)

The winner of this game will play Fresno St. in the Mountain West title game. The Bulldogs have the home field and a solid track record of winning big games, so I believe they’ll get the job done. Zach likes Utah St. in the trenches, but doesn’t believe it’s enough for them to overcome the home field advantage.

My Pick: Boise St.

Z’s Pick: Boise St.

Notre Dame (-10.5) at USC

So this is it. The Trojans are Notre Dame’s final hurdle to the playoff. Normally that would not only be intriguing, but it’d make this the biggest game of the weekend. However, while the undefeated Irish have looked unstoppable 5-6 Southern Cal has not. Much like Florida State, USC is a traditional power now just battling for bowl eligibility. Can they get the job done and pull off a huge upset?? I wish…but probably not. Zach thinks USC will make a coaching change after the season, and as much as he’d like to see the upset he doesn’t believe it’ll happen.

My Pick: Notre Dame

Z’s Pick: Notre Dame

Arizona State (-2) at Arizona

Herm Edwards has the Sun Devils at 6-5 and heading in the right direction. The arrow is pointing up for Kevin Sumlin’s Wildcats as well, despite a roller coaster season. The Wildcats have the home field and need a victory to become bowl eligible, so that’s the pick for me. Zach doesn’t like Arizona’s defense (or lack thereof), so he is going with the favorites.

My Pick: Arizona

Z’s Pick: Arizona St.

South Carolina at Clemson (-26)

The Gamecocks aren’t winning this game. Clemson has a playoff berth on the line and they’re not going to let their in-state rival steal that away. But what about the points?? That’s an awfully big spread. Might Clemson rest some players and hold something back for the ACC title game?? Nahhhhh. They’ll win by atleast four touchdowns. Zach is going in the other direction, believing the Tigers will take their foot off the gas just enough for the Gamecocks to cover.

My Pick: Clemson

Z’s Pick: South Carolina

Auburn at Alabama (-24.5)

The Iron Bowl is always one of the biggest games on the calendar, and this year is no exception. I think Alabama is destined for the playoff win or lose, and they could even drop this game and the SEC title game and still be gifted a playoff berth. Auburn is 7-4 and has been underwhelming this year, but I expect them to play their best game against their archrival. I don’t believe the Tigers have a snowball’s chance in California of winning the game, but they’ll probably keep it closer than the oddsmakers think. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Auburn

Z’s Pick: Auburn

Michigan (-4.5) at Ohio State

This is it. This is the biggest game of the holiday weekend. For the first time in awhile the Wolverines are actually favored, despite playing at The Horseshoe in Columbus. The winner will face Northwestern in the Big Ten title game, but Michigan has much bigger fish to fry because a playoff berth awaits. However, unlike ‘Bama, they cannot afford to stumble. The Buckeyes have to have a lot of things go their way to make it to the playoff, which is unlikely. But I have to believe that screwing their hated rival out of a chance to play for the National Championship would be a fantastic consolation prize. Because a) I love playoff chaos, b) I know Zach will pick Michigan, & c) I don’t think the home field can be overlooked, I am picking the upset. As predicted Zach is picking the Wolverines to give Ohio St. an epic beatdown.

My Pick: Ohio St.

Z’s Pick: Michigan

2015 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 1

Greetings sports fans!! We’re back with a 4th season of scintillating football insight and weekly game picks. My nephew Zach joins me for the third time. In 2014 I finished with a pretty decent record of 52-44, while Zach crashed & burned in the final weekend to go 46-50 for the year. As usual the NCAA gets started before the NFL, and also as usual the schedule is filled with unappetizing matchups of powerhouse teams facing Little Sisters of the Poor. That is par for the course in the first couple weeks of college football. However, I was able to find a handful of intriguing games, a couple of which might even play a key role in which teams end up in the four team national title playoff in January. We’ll see. Remember the ground rules. We don’t get paid for this. We’re just football fans having some fun. Point spreads are included only to add a layer of intrigue & strategery. The Manofesto doesn’t encourage gambling for a few reasons, one of which being the fact that we’re really not very good at this. Enjoy!!

TCU (-14) at Minnesota
The Horned Frogs finished 12-1 last season and many thought that they deserved a spot in the inaugural championship playoff. Unfortunately they play in the Big 12 (which has ten teams), a conference that seems destined to be left in the dust until they expand and add a title game. Senior QB Trevone Boykin is an early Heisman favorite. The Gophers went 8-5 in 2014 and kept getting incomprehensible respect from the playoff committee (who ranks 25 teams even though only 4 are in the playoff). Pundits seem to think TCU has another solid chance to be a playoff team this go round, while yours truly has them ranked 7th. Minnesota has the home field advantage in this one, which is why I’m going to be a rebel and pick them to cover the points but not actually win the game. Conversely, Zach likes TCU’s powerful offense and thinks they’ll win easily.

My Pick – Minnesota
Z’s Pick – TCU

Louisville vs. Auburn (-10.5)
The national sports media seems to like both of these teams more than I do. The Tigers are predicted to be a Top 10 team in other polls, while mine has them nowhere in sight. The Cardinals are “receiving votes” in other rankings, but not mine. This is a neutral site game in Atlanta, although Auburn should have a strong “home field” advantage. I’m not buying the Louisville hype at all, and while I think Auburn will struggle against SEC foes I don’t believe they’ll have any problems winning their opener. Zach concurs, opining that it’ll be a blowout by halftime allowing Auburn to get their bench some playing time in the second half.

My Pick – Auburn
Z’s Pick – Auburn

Arizona St. vs. Texas A&M (-3)
This might be the best game of the opening weekend. It is another neutral site game, this time in Houston, which gives the Aggies the clear “home field” advantage. The Sun Devils are also getting a lot of love from the talking heads while getting none from me, with most “experts” showing them nestled safely in the Top 20. Conversely, A&M is in the “receiving votes” category in most other polls, while I have them ranked 15th. The point spread isn’t really a factor, as the 3 points are a function of A&M’s likely crowd support. On paper it really does look like a tossup, and I’ve got to lean toward the nominal favorite. Zach is going with the majority and against the spread. He likes Arizona St.’s defense to make the difference.

My Pick – Texas A&M
Z’s Pick – Arizona St.

Texas at Notre Dame (-9.5)
Once upon a time this would have been a big time, overhyped matchup of college football royalty, but the Longhorns have fallen on tough times the past few years and aren’t anywhere near most rankings…except mine, where they sneak in at #25. Meanwhile, the Irish are hovering near the Top 10 in most polls and I have them ranked 3rd…solidly in the playoff conversation. The game is at South Bend and an upset seems highly unlikely. So the question is will Notre Dame cover the points?? I believe so. Zach is employing a “go big or go home” strategery and is picking the huge upset.

My Pick – Notre Dame
Z’s Pick – Texas

Wisconsin vs. Alabama (-11)
This is also a neutral site game at The Palace in Dallas, and a year ago it might have been a really interesting game. However the Badgers not only lost record setting RB Melvin Gordon to the NFL, they are also welcoming their third head coach in four years. I think they’ll be alright in the long run, but there couldn’t possibly be a bigger challenge out of the gate than ‘Bama. I see no reason to believe that the Tide won’t be in the thick of the playoff conversation all season long, and that will start with them steamrolling Wisconsin. Zach has a huge mancrush on Nick Saban and thinks Alabama will win by 17 points. He believes that Wisconsin will hang tight for the first 3 quarters but get blown away late.

My Pick – Alabama
Z’s Pick – Alabama

2014 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

The time has finally come!! After decades of mythical national champions and BCS (emphasis on the BS) silliness college football finally gets a playoff. Is the system perfect?? I don’t know…probably not. But I will reserve judgment until I see exactly how it works out. One thing we know for sure…there is no longer a race to be #1 or even the runner-up. Four teams will earn an opportunity to be in the playoff mix, so as long as a team is amongst those final four they’ll get their shot. Any “controversy” will be a debate as to which team deserves that 4th spot, and I am sure there will be a few teams staking a claim. But at the end of the day my vibe is that the argument will be rather muted & somewhat trivial and that fans will be mostly satisfied with the outcome.

1 Florida State
Last Season: 14-0
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Oklahoma St., 9/20 vs. Clemson, 10/18 vs. Notre Dame
Defending national champions. Returning Heisman winning quarterback. Former wrestling champion Ric Flair used to say “To be the man you have to beat the man” and until a team comes along and knocks the Seminoles off their perch I think they have to be given this top spot. Two out-of-conference games against Oklahoma St. & Notre Dame as well as the always entertaining ACC clash against Clemson are all in Tallahassee. I’d be stunned if this team isn’t in that final four.

2 Oregon
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 9/6 vs. Michigan St., 10/11 at UCLA, 11/1 vs. Stanford
Quarterback Marcus Mariotta likely could have been a first round pick in the NFL Draft but chose to return to Eugene for a shot at the national title and a run at the Heisman Trophy. I think he has a strong chance to snag both. Head coach Mark Helfrich didn’t miss a beat after taking the helm last season when Chip Kelly moved on to the Philadelphia Eagles. The PAC 12 is one of the toughest conferences in the land, but I think we’ll see the Ducks overcome both UCLA and Stanford to once again be in the national championship conversation.

3 Alabama
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 11/8 at LSU, 11/29 vs. Auburn
Let’s be clear…the inaugural 4 team playoff will, come hell or high water, include the Crimson Tide. The major players in the SEC are probably going to spend the season beating up on each other, but that’ll just endear them all to the lapdog media even more. ‘Bama must replace quarterback AJ McCarron who is now patiently awaiting the inevitable implosion of fellow signal caller Andy Dalton as a Cincinnati Bengal. I don’t think it matters who ends up with the job for the Tide. Their calling card is a tenacious defense and a virtually unstoppable running game.

4 South Carolina
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 8/28 vs. Texas A&M, 9/13 vs. Georgia, 10/25 at Auburn, 11/29 at Clemson
Do not be surprised if the powers-that-be contort themselves into a pretzel trying to get two SEC teams into the playoff. How does that happen?? Simple. First of all, the Gamecocks don’t play Alabama during the regular season. It is entirely conceivable that both teams go into the SEC title game undefeated. Maybe ‘Bama is #1 and South Carolina is a Top 10 team. South Carolina wins a close game and rightfully ascends into the top 4. The collective hard-on the masses have for Alabama means they tumble…but not much. It’s possible. You heard it here first.

5 UCLA
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 10/11 vs. Oregon, 11/22 vs. USC, 11/28 vs. Stanford
I really like the PAC 12, but in the scenario described above it could be their runner-up that gets left out in the cold. Let’s imagine this. Oregon beats the Bruins on October 11th and goes undefeated. UCLA overcomes the loss and doesn’t lose the rest of the regular season. The two meet again in the conference title game and the Ducks prevail in an epic contest. There is no way that UCLA beats out the SEC runner-up to get into the playoff.

6 Oklahoma
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 11/8 vs. Baylor, 12/6 vs. Oklahoma St.
The Big 12 only has ten teams and no championship game. That really hurts their chances of having a playoff team. It doesn’t help that the conference is relatively weak. Entertaining?? Sure. But the Sooners defeating the likes of TCU, Iowa St., West Virginia, & Kansas by three or more touchdowns won’t impress anybody. It is more than possible that Oklahoma could run the table and still not even be in the playoff discussion. If they drop a game to Baylor or in-state rival Oklahoma St. then they’re toast.

7 Wisconsin
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 8/30 vs. LSU, 11/15 vs. Nebraska
Other pundits may be picking a different Big Ten (which now has 14 teams) team to prevail, but I think the Badgers will pound their way to the conference championship behind 6ft.1 207lb. junior running back Melvin Gordon. Whether or not they win their season opening out-of-conference matchup with the LSU Tigers is irrelevant, although that game being in Madison certainly helps. A mid-November clash with Nebraska is also at home and will likely decide who represents the division in the conference title game.

8 Baylor
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 11/8 at Oklahoma
Senior quarterback Bryce Petty returns to lead what was a prolific and dominating offense in 2013. The Bears have the same issue as any other Big 12 contender in that they are unlikely to receive as much respect on a national scale as teams from the SEC or PAC 12. An out-of-conference schedule that includes SMU, Northwestern St., & Buffalo isn’t going to help. Basically the whole season comes down to an early November clash with the Sooners in Norman. The winner of that game probably plays in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day. The loser will end up in something depressing like the Advocare Texas Bowl.

9 Boise State
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 8/28 vs. Ole Miss, 10/24 vs. BYU
They’re baaaccckkk. The Broncos have long been college football’s Little Engine That Could. They have consistently been a double digit win team over the past 15 years. After a lot of rumors and flirting with other gigs in the past decade former head coach Chris Petersen moved on to Washington and has been replaced in Boise by Bryan Harsin, a former Broncos offensive coordinator who also spent some time coaching under Mack Brown at Texas. After going 8-5 in 2013 no one is really talking about Boise St., which will make it all the sweeter when they win 10 or 11 games. Their season opener is an out-of-conference contest against an Ole Miss team that seems to be getting much love this pre-season despite the fact that they play a murderous SEC schedule. I’m betting people will remember Boise St. is still around afterward.

10 Michigan State
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 9/6 at Oregon, 10/4 vs. Nebraska, 11/8 vs. Ohio St.
The Spartans all too often get lost in the Big Ten (which has 14 teams) shuffle. But if you look at their success over the past few seasons they have been remarkably consistent, winning 11+ games three out of the past four years. This is another team that wins with good old-fashioned smashmouth football and a tough defense. Even if they lose 2 out of 3 key games and finish 10-2 they could have a legitimate opportunity to be in the conference title mix.

11 Ohio State
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 11/8 at Michigan St.
Losing QB Braxton Miller for the season virtually eliminates the Buckeyes from the championship picture. They have an unimpressive & weak schedule with neither Nebraska nor Wisconsin anywhere in sight. All it will take is a loss to Michigan St. to end the dream. And let’s be honest…if they were to somehow make it to the playoff they’d get beaten like a government mule.

12 Nebraska
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 10/4 at Michigan St., 11/15 at Wisconsin
I fully expect a logjam at the top of the Big Ten (which has 14 teams). There will probably be 3 or 4 teams finishing somewhere around the 9-3/10-2 mark. The Cornhuskers’ out-of-conference schedule, which includes Miami, FL & Fresno St., isn’t bad. If they can split their two key games they will almost certainly be a solid Top 25 team.

13 Marshall
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: all of them and none of them
Marshall is my alma mater. I know that expectations are high in my old stomping grounds in Huntington, WV. Here is what I expect. I expect an undefeated season. I expect QB Rakeem Cato to be invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony though he doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in Arizona of actually winning. I expect that undefeated season to mean diddly squat as far as the national playoff. And I expect that if…if…the Herd screws the pooch in any game…including a C-USA championship game…they will tumble very quickly from the rankings.

14 Iowa
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 11/22 vs. Wisconsin, 11/28 vs. Nebraska
The Hawkeyes are another team that can always be dangerous even in a down year. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is one of those names that always gets mentioned for “better” jobs, whether in the NFL or elsewhere in college. At age 59 and going into his 16th year at the helm in Iowa City it looks less & less likely that he will ever actually make the jump and will instead be one of those lifers like Bobby Bowden or Frank Beamer that sticks around for three decades. Having said that, a close examination of Iowa’s “success” under Ferentz shows that they’ve only had four double digit win seasons during his tenure. If they can split the two key games above…both of which are at home…they could add another in 2014.

15 Bowling Green
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: I have no idea
Someone’s got to win the MAC, right?? Actually I like watching MAC football. Their games are usually quite entertaining. The problem is that they are all kind of just random teams from Ohio (and a couple of other midwestern states). It reminds me of eating at McDonald’s…you know there are better options available and you aren’t quite sure exactly what you’re consuming, but in the moment it is sort of tasty and mostly satisfying. At any rate, the Falcons won the conference title game in 2013, upsetting a Northern Illinois team that was ranked in the Top 20. They seem to be getting some “others receiving votes” love in other polls, and since the entire Top 25 can’t be SEC, PAC 12, & Big Ten (which has 14 teams) I’ll give this team a fighting chance to win 10 or 11 games (they’ll get mauled at Wisconsin), win the conference, and earn this spot.

16 LSU
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Wisconsin, 10/4 at Auburn, 11/8 vs. Alabama, 11/27 at Texas A&M
The Bayou Bengals seem to be one of those teams that just reload and have tremendous success year after year. However, I am a bit nervous about their chances in 2014. First of all they have to replace a quarterback, running back, & wide receiver (as well as about a half dozen other players) that were all taken in the NFL Draft. Secondly their out-of-conference schedule includes the season opener…a neutral site clash against Wisconsin. And of course the biggest issue…they play in the SEC. I realize that the wet dream of the powers-that-be is probably an all-SEC four team playoff for the national title, but that ain’t gonna happen. Someone will be on the outside looking in. If LSU can overcome all of that and still have a Top 20 team it will be a remarkable feat.

17 Stanford
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/6 vs. USC, 10/4 at Notre Dame, 11/1 at Oregon, 11/28 at UCLA
Stanford has the same issue as LSU. They play in a tough conference where the law of averages dictates that not everybody can be a Top 10 national championship contender. The schedule is brutal. If this team can somehow get to 9 wins they will deserve a solid ranking.

18 Navy
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Ohio St., 11/1 vs. Notre Dame
Call me crazy, but I think the Midshipmen have a puncher’s chance in their season opening neutral site game against Ohio St. Okay okay…I’m not going to rush to Vegas or Atlantic City and actually put money on that, but the rest of the season looks pretty decent. There is a November contest against Notre Dame that is also winnable. But even if Navy loses those two games they could still end up in this spot by going 10-2 and being very competitive (within two TDs) against the Buckeyes and Irish.

19 Oklahoma State
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Florida St., 11/22 at Baylor, 12/6 at Oklahoma
The Cowboys open their season at the Palace in Dallas against #1 Florida St. Ouch. If they pull the upset it’ll turn college football on its collective ear on the very first weekend of the season. However, even though that is unlikely, the truth is that the whole season comes down to the final two games against Baylor and Oklahoma. Split those two games and this ranking looks golden. But even if Oklahoma St. loses all three of their key games they can still get here by being very competitive in those games and beating their other nine opponents into oblivion.

20 Central Florida
Last Season: 12-1
Key Games: 8/30 at Penn St., 9/13 at Missouri
Quick…tell me what conference UCF plays in. Now tell me three other teams in that conference. Give up?? The American Athletic Conference is the very definition of mediocrity, comprised of refugees from C-USA and the old Big East that just didn’t have enough to offer for a more well-respected conference to invite them to play with the big boys. It is somewhat surprising that UCF finds itself in such a hot mess given that they are the 2nd largest university in the country. Let that sink in for a minute. UCF is bigger than Florida, Florida St., & Miami, FL…all of whom have had tremendous success on the gridiron. Will such success eventually occur for the Knights?? Maybe. Until that happens though they will be satisfied to win their conference and be a solid Top 20 team. I am a bit concerned that they must replace QB Blake Bortles who is now plying his trade in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars. But at the end of the day I think this is a team that will overcome adversity, win 9 or 10 games, and secure another conference title.

21 Arizona
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 10/2 at Oregon, 10/11 vs. USC, 11/1 at UCLA,
There are a handful of other PAC 12 teams that get all the love, but don’t forget about the Wildcats. Head coach Rich Fraudriguez seems to be much more comfortable in Tucson than he ever was in Ann Arbor, MI. I think lower expectations and staying off the beaten path suits him well. If Arizona can pull off just one big upset and win 9 or 10 games they are a solid choice to sneak into the rankings.

22 Notre Dame
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 10/4 vs. Stanford, 10/18 at Florida St., 11/29 at USC
The Fighting Irish can’t cheat as much on the football field as they apparently do in the classroom because…well…television cameras. The question is can they recover from the loss of atleast 4 players (and who knows what other shoes may drop) and meet always lofty expectations?? I assume they’ll hang around and be good enough to be a solid 8/9 win bowl team. Brian Kelly is a good coach and QB Everett Golson returns from his 2013…hiatus…which means the offense should be decent. Pulling an upset in any one of the three key games would almost assure sneaking into the final rankings.

23 Virginia Tech
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/6 at Ohio St., 10/4 at North Carolina, 10/23 vs. Miami, FL
Florida St. will win the ACC. But who will win the other division and be chum for the Seminoles in the conference title game?? Most “experts” are picking North Carolina or Miami to fill that role. I’m playing a hunch and going against the grain. Head coach Frank Beamer has a ton of experience and his team plays in a relatively mediocre conference. I don’t think they’ll beat Ohio St., but that isn’t where the focus should be anyway. It’s a three horse race for the Coastal Division and it’ll all come down to October contests against the Tar Heels and Hurricanes.

24 Auburn
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 10/4 vs. LSU, 10/25 vs. South Carolina, 11/8 vs. Texas A&M, 11/15 at Georgia, 11/29 at Alabama
An old saying tells us that sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, and the Tigers were very very very lucky last season. Oh they were good too…but being lucky took them from going 9-3 and playing in the Cotton Bowl to going 12-1 and coming up short in the national championship. They won’t be as fortunate this season. I’m not concerned about players lost to the NFL. Teams like Auburn just reload, and QB Nick Marshall returns for his senior year as a viable Heisman candidate. But the schedule is ridiculously difficult and I don’t think this team will win more than a couple of the key games noted above.

25 Georgia
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Clemson, 9/13 at South Carolina
A 8/9 win season and a Top 25 ranking might not seem good enough for an upper echelon SEC team, but I say it’d be a pretty decent finish all things considered. The Bulldogs must replace QB Aaron Murray, but they still have junior RB Todd Gurley, a 6ft.1 232lb. brute with 4.2/40 speed. He’ll be a legitimate Heisman candidate, but the defense will have to step up and new signal caller Hutson Mason…a senior who has sat behind Murray for four years…will have to become comfortable really quickly. I won’t be a bit surprised if 4 or 5 SEC teams end the season ranked, but logic dictates that they all can’t finish in the Top 10.

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 12

We’re in the home stretch of the college football season and ¾ of the way into the NFL season. With the holidays fast approaching and things on the gridiron getting really interesting I’d have to say that this is one of my favorite stretches of the entire year. Last week Zach went 4-2 while your humble Potentate of Profundity was 3-3. I’ll pat myself on the back for getting the USC upset of Stanford right, while Zach & I both correctly predicted that Louisville would beat Houston but not cover and also barely got a win when Oregon St. lost to Arizona St. by 13 points…not 13.5, thereby covering the spread. Zach picked Auburn & Michigan St., both games that I had pegged totally wrong. So thus far the 2013 season looks as such:

Zach = 26-30

Yours Truly = 29-27

This week we have some really intriguing games both college & pro, and surprisingly there are no crazy point spreads. I hope these games are all as close as the boys in Vegas seem to think they will be.

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Texas A&M at LSU (-4.5)

I’m actually a bit surprised at the spread. I know LSU has the home field, but they are 7-3, coming off a loss to Alabama, and ranked 19^th in the polls facing a Texas A&M team that is 8-2, ranked 10^th, and riding a 3 game winning streak. I know home field advantage means a lot, but I didn’t realize it meant that much. At any rate, a victory here combined with impressive numbers could secure another Heisman for QB Johnny Manziel. Meanwhile, the Tigers aren’t really playing for anything other than pride and a more lucrative bowl destination. The vibes are telling me that Johnny Football will rise to the occasion and overcome LSU’s stout defense. Zach is on the same wavelength and thinks it’ll be close until the 4^th quarter when Manziel takes over.

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Arizona St. (-2.5) at UCLA

The Sun Devils really have kind of snuck up on everyone this year. They are 8-2 and very much in the hunt for a Rose Bowl berth. Who’s standing in their way?? Well…the Bruins. This game might decide the south division of the Pac 12 although the USC Trojans are right there as well. Arizona St. already defeated the Trojans back in September (costing head coach Lane Kiffin his job), with USC & UCLA set for their annual showdown next week. When I did my pre-season Top 25 I had UCLA ranked 15^th which is right about where they stand at the moment. I can’t abandon them now, right?? Once again Zach concurs, adding that he’s just not that impressed by Arizona St.

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Baylor (-9.5) at Oklahoma St.

I am really looking forward to this game. With a victory the Bears will vault Ohio State in the BCS (emphasis on BS) standings, meaning that they’d be first in line for a shot at the national title should either Alabama or Florida State falter. Personally I think it’d be awesome if both ‘Bama & the ‘Noles would lose, opening the door for a Buckeyes-Bears national title game, but I’m not holding my breath. However, having said that I do believe it to be within the realm of possibility that one or the other could lose, so this game is huge for Baylor. Meanwhile the Cowboys are just trucking along getting no respect at all despite a 9-1 record and a Top 10 ranking. This game will likely decide the Big 12 champion and a BCS bowl regardless of what happens with those other teams. I have pondered this game a bit and I must say that The Voices aren’t telling me what I expected to hear. I think 9.5 points may actually be too big of a number, especially with this game being played in the friendly confines of Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. Baylor hasn’t really been challenged late into a game with the exception of a mid-October contest at Kansas St. in which they were behind going into the 4^th quarter, scored very early in that quarter to take the lead, and then added another late TD just for good measure. I think it is quite possible that this game might be up for grabs with 5 or less minutes remaining. Can Baylor grind out a close one?? Probably. But I don’t think they’ll cover the points. Zach is going in the opposite direction on this one and foresees a Baylor blowout.

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Indianapolis at Arizona (-2)

The Arizona Cardinals are 6-4 and in the thick of the NFC wildcard chase. Not bad for a team that I predicted would go 3-13. Oops. The Colts, on the other hand, are right about where I thought they’d be, which is comfortably winning their division. I know the Cards are getting the home field bump with the 2 points, but I ain’t buying it. I’ll be shocked if Indy doesn’t win this one easily. Zach is concerned that sometimes Indianapolis plays down to their competition but still agrees that they’ll cruise to a victory here.

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Denver (-2.5) at New England

Has anyone else noticed that NBC’s Sunday Night Football gets all the good games?? I bet the powers-that-be in Bristol are not happy about that. Personally though I like it. There’s usually nothing else better to do on a Sunday night than watch football, while Monday is wrestling night and only a game involving my Pittsburgh Steelers will tear me away from WWE Raw. Anyway, the Broncos are coming off a huge win over the Kansas City Chiefs and will travel to Kansas City to face that same team again next week. Unfortunately they don’t exactly have a cakewalk in between with the Patriots, who got hosed in a loss to the Carolina Panthers last week. This is Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. Not much else needs to be said to sell it, right?? I’d feel a lot better about picking Denver if the Patriots hadn’t gotten screwed by the refs last Monday night. They’ll be angry and out to prove that they’re still big & bad. Nevertheless I just can’t go against Manning. Zach does NOT think that the Patriots got screwed against the Panthers (he’s wrong), but unlike someone else is willing to go against Manning and pick New England.

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Davey O’Brien Semifinalists Manziel and Mettenberger meet in week thirteen (kbtx.com)
Stewart Mandel: Inside Baylor and Duke’s journeys from worst to first; more Overtime (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
Oregon Football: What USC’s Win over Stanford Does for the Ducks (bleacherreport.com)
Pigskin Profit: Stanford, Oklahoma have what it takes (nypost.com)
2013 Bloguin Heisman Poll: Week Twelve (bloguin.com)
Can LSU Repeat the Feat and Slow Down Johnny Manziel? (bleacherreport.com)

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

I was hoping for a really good rebound after an abysmal Week 9, and I guess it could have been worse. Baylor destroyed Oklahoma. I totally didn’t see that coming. I rolled the dice on LSU giving Alabama a game but instead they were trounced by 3 TDs. On the flip side the Ravens did beat the Bengals, Stanford upset Oregon, & Wisconsin rolled over BYU. Zach & I both went 3-2, meaning our season looks like this:

Your Humble Potentate of Profundity = 26-24

Zach = 22-28

We’re doing all college games again this week and I’m even giving you a bonus pick. I’m generous like that. Can I keep my head above water?? Will Zach have an awesome week and take the season lead?? Stay tuned!!

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Georgia at Auburn (-3.5)

Neither of these teams would seem to have a realistic shot at playing in the SEC championship, but both could still end up in a rather pleasant (and profitable) post-season spot like the Cotton Bowl or Chick-Fil-A Bowl (the old Peach Bowl). The Bulldogs have had an up & down season after some lofty pre-season expectations. Conversely, I don’t think anyone would have predicted such a solid season for Auburn after a 3-9 campaign in 2012, yet here they are riding a 6 game winning streak, including an upset of the Johnny Manziel & the Aggies in College Station, TX. Not only is this a classic trap game for Auburn (archrival & #1 team in the country Alabama await in a couple of weeks), but I am just not convinced that they are better than Georgia. Conversely, Zach is all in on Auburn and thinks they’ll win this one handily.

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Michigan St. (-6.5) at Nebraska

The Spartans have snuck up on just about everyone this season, although I’d be remiss if I didn’t humbly point out that I ranked them 22^nd in my pre-season Top 25. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers have flown somewhat under the radar for some reason. The winner of this contest will be in the driver’s seat to face Ohio St. in the Big Ten (which has 12 teams) title game. I had the Cornhuskers as a Top 10 team in the pre-season and still don’t think they are that bad. I am a bit surprised that they aren’t currently ranked. That would change with an upset here, and that is exactly what I am predicting. Zach is still smarting from the Spartans spanking his Wolverines but he did learn a healthy respect for the Michigan St. defense and believes that will be the key in a big 3 touchdown victory.

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Oklahoma St. (-3) at Texas

My WV Mountaineers have been in The Big 12 (which has ten teams) for two seasons now and I still can’t get a good read on the conference. Just when I think I have things figured out something weird happens. It seems like just yesterday there was buzz about Texas ridding itself of longtime head coach Mack Brown, but since then the Longhorns have reeled off 6 straight victories and now find themselves ranked in the Top 25 and not out of conference title contention (although they have to hope Baylor crumbles which seems unlikely). Meanwhile the Cowboys still just have that one perplexing loss to the ‘Eers marring their season. As much as I like Oklahoma St. and think they are a fine team it feels to me like the early season drama woke up a sleeping giant in Austin, TX and Coach Brown has something to prove. Texas just hired a new athletic director and I’m sure he’s pondering whether or not a change is necessary. A home victory this week would render the point moot, which is exactly what I think will happen. Zach concurs.

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Houston at Louisville (-16)

We haven’t picked a lot of American Athletic Conference games here so far. The AAC is a new conference made up of Big East leftovers and a few C-USA transplants and to be honest the quality of football isn’t really all that…enticing. If given a choice between watching a Temple-Connecticut game or an SMU-Memphis matchup and lowering my junk into the same pot that the Thanksgiving turkey is being deep fried in…well, I’d actually have to think about it. However, Houston has traditionally been a fun team with a high powered run & gun offense. We also shouldn’t forget that they came within a whisper of an undefeated season just two years ago, and after a losing season in 2012 they seem to have rebounded a bit. Meanwhile the bloom is off the rose in Cardinal Country. One loss to Central Florida and not only did The ‘Ville plummet down the rankings but QB Teddy Bridgewater…a nearly unanimous choice to be the #1 overall pick in next spring’s NFL Draft just a few weeks ago…seems to be falling down the pecking order and might not be the first quarterback drafted. I smell an upset here, and even if that doesn’t happen I think the game will be a lot closer than 16 points. Zach agrees again.

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Stanford (-4) at USC

Stanford is coming off an impressive upset of the Oregon Ducks and has vaulted themselves into the national title conversation in the unlikely event that either Alabama or Florida St. falter. USC has won 4 out of 5 under interim head coach Ed Orgeron and will likely receive a plum bowl slot regardless of how they fare the remainder of the season. This is yet another classic trap game, although in reverse. Stanford has nothing grand to look forward to, but one has to wonder if they might be a bit full of themselves after dashing the Ducks’ national championship dreams. Orgeron isn’t currently considered a serious candidate to get the USC gig long term, but the powers-that-be might reconsider if he can engineer a big upset in this game. I think it just might happen. Zach, on the other hand, believes that Stanford’s momentum will not only carry them to a victory in this game but that they still have a good chance to play in the national title game.

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Oregon St. at Arizona St. (-13.5)

I loves me some west coast football. I am actually off from work this Saturday night and will happily tune into whatever obscure channel on my cable box hosts the Pac 12 Network at 9:30pm. The Beavers are coming into this one with two straight losses, while the Sun Devils are riding a 4 game winning streak and are in a battle for a chance to play in the conference title game. I don’t know enough about either team to dissect them with any semblance of credibility but I think a two TD spread is just too much. I am hoping for and expecting a much closer game. Zach thinks we might be crazy, but also believes we could both be right in calling for the upset.

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Vols aiming to avoid 4th straight losing season (mysanantonio.com)
Pigskin Profit: Stanford, Oklahoma have what it takes (nypost.com)
College football scores: Auburn vs. Tennessee, other Top 25 action (sportingnews.com)
Continue to Doubt Auburn and the Tigers Will Keep Proving You Wrong (bleacherreport.com)
Georgia’s Rome expected to miss Auburn game (bigstory.ap.org)
Marshall, No. 9 Auburn roll past Tennessee (scores.espn.go.com)
Pigskin Picks: Surprises still sure to be seen this season (blueridgenow.com)
Georgia-Auburn Preview (nbcsports.com)
2013 Heisman Watch: Week 11 (isportsweb.com)

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 6

Occasionally I feel a little frisky. And when that happens citizens of The Manoverse are the winners because you get bonus picks!! Last week I rolled the dice on a couple of my choices and things didn’t turn out as well as I’d hoped. I didn’t think Florida would cover 13 points against Kentucky…they won by 17. I thought Ohio State would only beat Wisconsin by 1-3 points…they covered the spread, winning by 7. Both Zach & I picked Notre Dame, who fell to Oklahoma by two TDs. I did a little better with my NFL choices, where Buffalo defeated Baltimore and Seattle covered against Houston (barely…in overtime). So that made me 2-3 for the week and Zach 3-2. For the season at this point this is how it stands:

Your Humble Potentate of Profundity = 13-12

Zach = 12-13

None of the games this week really jumped out at me. I think that is partially because I feel like I’ve already said all I can say about several teams, and a little bit because I have a scratchy throat and am praying I don’t actually get sick in the next day or two. At any rate there are several games that I find mildly yet equally intriguing, and thus the bonus picks:

Ohio St. (-7) at Northwestern

The Buckeyes are rolling along at 5-0, although Wisconsin did give them just about everything they had last week. Meanwhile, the Wildcats, who I projected as a Top 25 team, are doing just about as well as I expected but this will be their first serious test. As much as I would love to give the nod to the underdogs I just can’t pull that trigger. Ohio State is merely biding their time until the end of the season when they’ll play at Michigan, and then likely meet either Nebraska or Michigan (again) in the Big Ten championship. And what they are really hoping for is that either Alabama or Oregon stumble, leaving a spot open in the national title game. Zach thinks Northwestern is a good team…but Ohio State is better.

My Pick Ohio State

Z’s Pick Ohio State

Georgia St. at Alabama (-56)

Look at that spread!! There is no doubt that ‘Bama will win this game. Georgia St. is an 0-4 I-AA team that has certainly filled their coffers this season with trips to West Virginia and now Alabama. I think Nick Saban will take this opportunity to rest a lot of his starters, atleast after the first half. And while Saban isn’t the kind of milquetoast that’ll genuinely take it easy on a lesser opponent I think he’ll play this one smart, with the main goal being not to have anyone get hurt. I am envisioning a 52-7 kind of game…which would mean the Tide wins but doesn’t cover. Zach concurs.

My Pick Georgia State

Z’s Pick Georgia State

Washington at Stanford (-7)

Stanford is 4-0 and kind of getting overlooked. The talking heads will spout off all day long about Oregon, Ohio St., Notre Dame, and the entire SEC, but they barely talk about the #5 team in the country. I suspect that is just fine with the folks in Palo Alto. Sometimes flying under the radar can be advantageous. Meanwhile, the Huskies have garnered a bit of attention with victories over Boise St. and Arizona. This could be the sleeper game of the weekend, but I think that Stanford will take control in the 4^th quarter and win by double digits. Zach likes Stanford’s defense and thinks that’ll be the key to victory.

My Pick Stanford

Z’s Pick Stanford

Maryland at Florida St. (-15.5)

The Terrapins are looking like the Rodney Dangerfield of college football. They are 4-0 and have somewhat impressive victories over WVU, Florida Int’l, & UConn, yet are passed over by 8 one loss teams in the Top 25. Clearly they need to make a statement in Tallahassee…but will they?? The Seminoles are 4-0, haven’t been tested at all, but have only played one 1-AA cupcake. Florida St’s freshman QB Jameis Winston looks like the real deal and will probably get some Heisman love next season before bolting early to the NFL. I think Maryland is atleast as good…and probably much better…than the Boston College team that Florida St. defeated a week ago by 14 points. So while I believe that Florida St. will get the victory I think it’ll be by about 10 or so points. And once again Zach & I are in complete agreement.

My Pick Maryland

Z’s Pick Maryland

New England at Cincinnati (-2)

I am shocked that the Bengals are favored in this game. Yes they have the home field, and Tom Brady has expressed some frustration with the young receivers he’s had to coddle this season, but the Patriots are 4-0 and will likely just gather steam as the season moves along…especially when tight end Rob Gronkowski and WR Danny Amendola return from injuries. The Bengals are 2-2 and just lost to the Cleveland Browns. I don’t get the spread at all, which is why I’m going against it and picking New England. Zach would rather…and I quote…watch Dancing with the Stars or Teen Mom 2 than this game”. Wow. Anyway, he also thinks the Patriots will win.

My Pick New England

Z’s Pick New England

Seattle (-2.5) at Indianapolis

The Colts are 3-1 and recently made headlines when they traded for RB Trent Richardson. Quarterback Andrew Luck is still a youngster but seems to have a tremendous veteran-like presence and maturity. However, the Seahawks have been the hottest thing in sports for the past month and have cruised to a 4-0 start, including a slightly surprising beatdown of the San Francisco 49ers. I think Indy is the team of the future, but Seattle is the team of the here & now and should win this one pretty easily. Zach disagrees and is picking the Colts to win. Interesting!!

My Pick Seattle

Z’s Pick Indianapolis

New Orleans at Chicago (-1)

This is another spread that surprises me just a tad. The Bears are 3-1 and QB Jay Cutler seems to finally be coming into his own under the tutelage of head coach and quarterback guru Marc Trestman. However, the Saints have been an absolute machine thus far. QB Drew Brees has already thrown for over 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns, a record setting pace that is being overshadowed by Peyton Manning’s phenomenal start. I see no reason to start doubting New Orleans now. Zach is a big believer in Brees and tight end Jimmie Graham and thinks New Orleans will roll to a victory.

My Pick New Orleans

Z’s Pick New Orleans

Detroit at Green Bay (-7)

If you would have told me a month ago that the Lions would be tied for first place in the division and the Packers would be 1-2 I’d have said you were nuts. But that’s exactly what has happened. Detroit has looked pretty darn good, while the Packers have not fared so well against a tough early season schedule. But as you can tell by the spread folks haven’t quite given up on Green Bay and certainly haven’t bought into Detroit quite yet. I think both perspectives are pretty fair. The Pack is far from done, and the Lions will have to win a few more games before people start believing they’re for real. That process would certainly go a long way with a big win on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field…but I don’t think that’s going to happen. I’m still rooting for Detroit to have a solid season, but the cream rises to the top and I think this is the week Green Bay starts to figure things out. Zach thinks the bye week may have been helpful to Green Bay but is picking Detroit to pull the upset.

My Pick Green Bay

Z’s Pick Detroit

Wait, Is SEC Football Actually Fun Now? 125 FBS Teams, Ranked (deadspin.com)
Pick 6: The selective memory of Urban Meyer (jacksonville.com)
Alabama suspends Clinton-Dix indefinitely (mysanantonio.com)
Watch Northwestern vs Ohio State live (allsportslivetvhd15.wordpress.com)
Pigskin Profit: Actual competition returns to college football (nypost.com)
Heisman Watch Week 5: LSU’s Zach Mettenberger joins SEC QB-heavy field (college-football.si.com)
NFL Draft 2014 Risers/Fallers: Zach Mettenberger, Aaron Murray put on show (nfl.si.com)

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 3

This is going to be short & sweet. I am an odd mix of somewhat busy and extremely unmotivated. Why?? I don’t know exactly, although I believe it has something to do with my diet and the fact that I have fallen completely off the wagon with my weight loss effort. I may enjoy eating pasta & candy more than salad & oatmeal, but the truth is I feel much more energetic and healthy when I eat the right things. Anyway, that is a subject for another day. We’re here to talk about football, right?? Last week I had what I think is my best week ever with these picks, going 4-1. Only the Chicago Bears stood between me & perfection. Meanwhile, Zach went 2-3. The Cincinnati Bengals let him down just like they did me, plus he chose South Carolina and the Atlanta Falcons who both lost. So that makes our season record as follows:

Your Humble Potentate of Profundity = 6-4

Zach = 5-5

This week we are NFL heavy. I just didn’t see a lot of college football that really revved my engine. With all NCAA teams now playing 12 games it means that many are still going up against cupcakes in the third week before their conference schedule begins. Fortunately I think that’ll change next week. In the meantime…..

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Alabama (-8) at Texas A&M

Well okay…there is one intriguing college football game. My question is “Will it be all that interesting??”. The Tide dominated Virginia Tech in their opener and then had last week off. Think about that…they’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. The Aggies are 2-0 after beating down two inferior foes, but no one has really been talking about their football team. For months now it’s been the Johnny Manziel show in College Station, TX. He’s the anti-Tebow…a good quarterback who can actually throw the ball, but seemingly not a very good person. To be honest I’m sick to death of hearing about Johnny Football. The NCAA totally wussed out by suspending him for one half of one game for allegedly getting paid to autograph memorabilia, which sent a totally wrong message. I am normally an underdog kind of guy, but I find myself hoping ‘Bama teaches this petulant, spoiled, arrogant punk a lesson Saturday…and I think that just might actually happen. Zach loves Johnny Football (kids…what’re ya gonna do??) but thinks The Tide will roll.

My Pick: Alabama

Z’s Pick: Alabama

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Miami at Indianapolis (-3)

Why do so many NFL games have a 3 point spread?? It’s kind of a gutless call by the oddsmakers. I understand that giving the home team a 3 point advantage is a baseline. And I certainly get that parody is a big thing in pro football. But sometimes one team is clearly better. The Colts began their season with a solid yet unimpressive win over the Raiders. Conversely, Miami handled the lowly Browns pretty easily. I think QB Andrew Luck has a big game this week, and I look for Ahmad Bradshaw to seize the running back job. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Indianapolis

Z’s Pick: Indianapolis

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Dallas at Kansas City (-2.5)

The Cowboys began their season with a nice win over their division rival NY Giants. The Chiefs had no problems at all against the horrible Jacksonville Jaguars. Even considering the home field I am a bit surprised that KC is favored in this one. I really like QB Alex Smith and think he landed in a pretty good spot after being pushed out of San Francisco. And let us not overlook the fact that Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid is very familiar with Dallas since he faced them many many times as coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. I’m going to go with the favorites here since…all other things being equal…the oddsmakers seems to know something the rest of us don’t.

My Pick: Kansas City

Z’s Pick: Kansas City

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Detroit at Arizona

You might be saying to yourself…”Where are the odds??”. Well…this is the rare game that is being called as even. The poor Cardinals can’t even get the nominal nod for the home field. Both of these teams have been trying to dig themselves out from the hole of mediocrity for what seems like decades. Oh there was that one magical Super Bowl season for Arizona back in 2008, but other than that they’ve only had one additional winning season from 1998 til now. The Lions have shown sporadic signs of success but can’t ever seem to get over the hump. They had ten straight losing seasons until last year when they made the playoffs. The Cardinals seem to have a solid defense, and the quarterback situation has been patched up…for now…with Carson Palmer. But I think the Lions are a more complete team right now. Zach has no doubt that Detroit wins this one.

My Pick: Detroit

Z’s Pick: Detroit

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Denver (-5.5) at NY Giants

You may have heard about Peyton Manning and how he began his 2013 season…7 touchdowns and nearly 500 yards against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Giants narrowly lost their opener to the Cowboys. The Giants’ starting RB can’t stop fumbling and injuries are beginning to take their toll already. If this wasn’t “The Manning Bowl” no one would care about a game that really isn’t in question.

My Pick: Denver

Z’s Pick: Denver

We are Alabama. We are the Tide. We do not forgive. We do not forget. Expect us. (thesoutherncommittee.wordpress.com)
NFL Week 2 Pigskin Pick’Em and an Awesome GIF of a Dog Playing With a Tennis Ball (sackedforalossofsix.wordpress.com)
Johnny Football (theblog342.wordpress.com)
16HourGuys Weekend Football Preview (16hourguys.com)
Football is BACK! *Rick Ross Grunt* (sophistirachet.wordpress.com)
Welcome to The Big Pigskin (thebigpigskin.wordpress.com)
Johnny Football vs. the Crimson Tide (thegcdaily.com)

2013 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

It’s been a weird summer. Temperatures here in West Virginia seemingly hovered in the 70’s much of the past few months and it has rained every other day. The kids started back to school in mid-August so we’ve kind of been in autumn mode already. So be it. Fall means football and football has always been my favorite season, although to be honest I feel that changing ever-so-slightly. Watching NFL pre-season games has been an exercise in frustration the past two weeks for reasons that I’ll explain when we do the NFL preview soon. For now it is enough to say that I am glad that Roger Goodell hasn’t yet figured out a way to seize power of the NCAA and ruin the collegiate game the way he is bastardizing the pro game. Anyway, as always I must remind my dear citizens of The Manoverse that I do not encourage wagering and I am not really all that good at this so please don’t head to Vegas and risk your kids’ college fund on these predictions.

1 Oregon

Last Season: 12-1

Key Game: 10/26 vs. UCLA

The biggest loss the Ducks suffered after a stellar 2012 season was their head coach Chip Kelly to the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles. Usually that’d be enough to dissuade me from picking a team anywhere close to this high. However, my vibe is that new coach Mark Helfrich…the former offensive coordinator…will keep this train rolling forward just fine. Oregon has played in a big January bowl game the past 4 years and I believe they have a great chance to outlast the always stiff competition in the Pac 12 to make what will be the final BCS title game on January 6, 2014.

2 Ohio State

Last Season: 12-0

Key Games: 9/28 vs. Wisconsin, 11/30 at Michigan

The Buckeyes went undefeated last season but it didn’t matter because they were on probation and weren’t allowed to play in the post-season. With all of that craziness now in the rear view mirror head coach Urban Meyer can now get down to business. Is junior QB Braxton Miller the real deal?? Most people seem to think so. I see no reason why Ohio St. shouldn’t easily roll thru the early part of their schedule until running into Wisconsin…and that game will be in the friendly confines of The Horseshoe in Columbus. Whether or not the season ends in Pasadena on January 6th could very well be determined at the end of November when the Buckeyes travel to The Big House to face the Michigan Wolverines.

3 Alabama

Last Season: 13-1

Key Games: 9/14 at Texas A&M, 11/9 vs. LSU

The Tide has won back-to-back national titles and 3 out of the last 4. Most pre-season polls have them ranked #1. But since A) I am a non-conformist and B) I just think the SEC is too tough to assume that anyone can go undefeated I can’t quite pull the trigger on ranking ‘Bama #1. Having said that a quick glance at their schedule doesn’t really raise any eyebrows. At this point who knows if Texas A&M will even have their Heisman winning, autograph signing, NCAA rules violating QB Johnny Manziel, and even if they do one has to logically believe that Alabama will be geared up to avenge last year’s 29-24 loss to the Aggies. Can LSU go into Tuscaloosa and pull off a November surprise?? Possibly. Or maybe the only thing standing between ‘Bama and yet another trip to the national title game is whoever they face in the SEC Championship game…likely either Georgia, Florida, or South Carolina. But one loss might be all it takes this year to knock the defending champs out of contention…and I am guessing some team will do just that at some point in 2013.

4 Texas

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 9/7 at BYU, 10/12 vs. Oklahoma, 11/16 vs. Oklahoma St.

After nine straight seasons of 10 or more victories the past three seasons have been somewhat…lean…in Austin. It seems odd that a 9-4 record in 2012 would be considered disappointing (especially after going 5-7 just two years earlier), but that’s just how these elite teams roll. I think the Longhorns are finally primed to re-ascend to the top of The Big 12 and possibly contend for a national championship. The conference is solid but not all that spectacular with only two other legit contenders for the crown. Texas has both of those games…against Oklahoma & Oklahoma St…at home. An early season contest in Provo against BYU might be interesting.

5 South Carolina

Last Season: 11-2

Key Games: 9/7 at Georgia, 11/16 vs. Florida, 11/30 vs. Clemson

The Gamecocks have a very good defensive end that you may have heard of named Jadeveon Clowney. Now I don’t know whether or not he’ll live up to the hype in the NFL, but the fact that he’s seen as a combination of Lawrence Taylor & Reggie White makes him a singular collegiate talent…even in the elite SEC. An early season contest in Athens against the Bulldogs might go a long way in deciding the SEC East and become a significant factor in determining who will face Alabama for the conference championship. An in-state rivalry game against the ACC’s Clemson Tigers isn’t likely to decide anything except poll position and bowl placement but since those are kind of a big deal it’ll be a fun game to watch.

6 Louisville

Last Season: 11-2

Key Games: 12/5 at Cincinnati

The Big East is gone, replaced by the American Athletic Conference. Either way it’s a last hurrah and most likely the last time anyone outside of the top teams in the power conferences (SEC, ACC, Big 12, Pac 12, Big 10…oh…and Notre Dame) will have the opportunity to sniff a top tier bowl unless they buy a ticket. Not that it matters to the Cardinals since they are heading to the ACC in 2014 anyway. Fortunately for Louisville they just happen to have a junior QB who’s also a projected 1st round NFL talent. Serendipity indeed. Because of their current conference affiliation and the perceived lack of respect for it I believe that the Cardinals will have to go undefeated to finish this high in the rankings even if they can still go to a BCS bowl just by winning the conference, and I think they have a really good shot at doing just that.

7 Michigan

Last Season: 8-5

Key Games: 9/7 vs. Notre Dame, 11/2 at Michigan St., 11/9 vs. Nebraska, 11/30 vs. Ohio St.

Coach Brady Hoke is 19-7 in his first two seasons in Ann Arbor…but he is 14-0 at home. That bodes well for home contests against Notre Dame, Nebraska, & Ohio St. The Wolverines will probably need to win 2 of those 3 to have any shot at a Top 10 finish. QB Denard Robinson is gone and now trying to make the roster of the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars. However, Michigan still has junior Devin Gardner, who actually saw significant time at quarterback last season, and it might be a blessing in disguise. It always felt like there may have been too much of a concerted effort to put Robinson in the spotlight…sometimes at the expense of the team. In 2012 Michigan lost 2 of its first 4 games to Alabama & Notre Dame. I don’t think The Irish will be quite as good in 2013 so I’d be surprised if Michigan doesn’t go 7-0 pretty effortlessly before facing the Spartans in East Lansing at the beginning of November. The annual Michigan-Ohio St. rivalry battle is in Ann Arbor this season, and while I don’t think Michigan will be in contention for the national championship they’ll be jacked to have the chance to cost the Buckeyes a title opportunity.

8 Florida State

Last Season: 12-2

Key Games: 10/19 at Clemson, 11/30 at Florida

The ACC is on the verge of becoming the new Big East…still one of the big boys but certainly on the bottom rung of the ladder. That could change if newcomers (in 2014) Pitt, Syracuse, & Louisville emerge…or re-emerge…as legit football powers. At any rate, regardless of the mediocrity of teams like Boston College, Georgia Tech, NC St., & Maryland or the even worse ineptitude of Duke & Wake Forest, the Seminoles have long been college football royalty. And while the ghost of Bobby Bowden will never completely go away Coach Jimbo Fisher (a Clarksburg, WV native and fellow alumnus of the Liberty High School) seems to be settling in quite nicely at the beginning of his 4th season at the helm in Tallahassee. A mid-season clash at Clemson will probably decide who wins the Atlantic Division of the conference, while the annual in-state rivalry game against the Florida Gators at the end of the season may have broader implications.

9 Nebraska

Last Season: 10-4

Key Games: 9/14 vs. UCLA, 11/9 at Michigan, 11/16 vs. Michigan St.

The Cornhuskers transition from The Big 12 (which has ten teams) to The Big 10 (which has 12 teams) has been seamless the past two seasons and I see no reason why 2013 should be any different. Two of their key games (one is a non-conference clash with UCLA) are in Lincoln and they do not play Ohio State at all (unless it’s in the conference title game…a distinct possibility). Games against the two Michigan schools will decide the division crown. QB Taylor Martinez returns for his senior year and has become a legit dual threat…a competent passer and a constant threat to run the ball. I’m not sure if he’ll be considered a big time NFL prospect, but at this level he’s a star.

10 Stanford

Last Season: 12-2

Key Games: 10/19 vs. UCLA, 11/7 vs. Oregon, 11/16 at USC, 11/30 at Notre Dame

Stanford fared just fine in 2012 without star QB Andrew Luck who had left for the NFL. A tough overtime loss to Notre Dame in South Bend and an inexplicable defeat at the hands of the very average Washington Huskies were the only blemishes on their record. I foresee a very similar season in 2013. I think they’ll certainly lose to Oregon, and after that two questions arise. First, can they win atleast 2 out of 3 of their other key games against UCLA, USC, & Notre Dame?? Secondly, will there be another curious loss to a lesser yet not terrible team like Oregon St. or Arizona St.??

11 Georgia

Last Season: 12-2

Key Games: 8/31 at Clemson, 9/7 vs. South Carolina, 9/28 vs. LSU, 11/2 at Florida

Last year I overlooked the Bulldogs. My rationale was simply that in a tough SEC someone had to be the odd man out, and I chose to endorse the likes of Tennessee, Auburn, & Arkansas (in addition to safe picks like Alabama & LSU) instead of Georgia. Oops. I will not make that same mistake this time, although I am a bit trepidatious because instead of starting out the season with 2 or 3 cupcakes like most teams seem to these days Georgia will begin 2013 against the likes of Clemson then South Carolina. If they can split those two contests they’ll get a one week break against an inferior opponent before hosting LSU. I don’t know who makes the schedule in Athens but I think they may need to be fired. That being said I think the worst case scenario for this team is 9 wins. 10 or more victories will almost certainly secure a Top 10 finish. Senior QB Aaron Murray will get an early Heisman push and is a solid NFL prospect.

12 Clemson

Last Season: 11-2

Key Games: 8/31 vs. Georgia, 10/19 vs. Florida St., 11/30 at South Carolina

Clemson returns both QB Taj Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins, which is a huge reason why they are getting so much pre-season love. On the flip side the offense did lose key contributors RB Andre Ellington and WR DeAndre Hopkins to the NFL. 2 of the 3 key games noted above will be at home. Opening the season against the Georgia Bulldogs is an undeniably tough mountain to climb and makes things a bit unpredictable because so much will depend on what each team has been able to accomplish in the spring and in the past few weeks of late summer practice. I don’t think the loser of that contest is necessarily toast for the remainder of the year, but they will be behind the proverbial 8-Ball. If the Tigers can steal 2 of those key games they are almost assured of a Top 10 finish.

13 Oklahoma

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 9/28 at Notre Dame, 10/5 vs. TCU, 10/12 vs. Texas, 12/7 at Oklahoma St.

The Sooners will be starting a freshman at QB which makes me just a little bit nervous. But I do like their schedule. This feels like another 10 win season for the Sooners. The question is where do the losses come?? An early season defeat at the hands of Notre Dame wouldn’t hurt nearly as much as losing at the end of the season to in-state rival Oklahoma St. I expect this year’s Red River Shootout (yes I still call it that…screw political correctness) against Texas will decide The Big 12 and possibly play a role in determining who plays for the national championship. QB Blake Bell…aka The Bell Dozer…may not have won the starting job but he’ll surely have an important part to play in the offense.

14 Cincinnati

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 12/5 vs. Louisville

The Bearcats season boils down to one game. Whoever wins that game on December 12 will represent the American Athletic Conference in the final round of BCS bowls. The loser will be playing in the Russell Athletic Bowl in December even if they have 11 wins. A year from now Louisville will be another middle-of-the-road, largely forgotten about ACC team (see Miami, FL., Boston College, &, Georgia Tech), while Cincy remains on the deck of the Titanic hoping for a lifeboat. Former coach Butch Jones has moved on to Tennessee, but Cincinnati was…to the shock of many…able to lure new head coach Tommy Tuberville away from Texas Tech. Perhaps Tuberville knows something the rest of us don’t. At the moment it looks to be a two-headed monster situation at QB but personally I’m rooting for Munchie Legaux simply because that is a freakin’ awesome name.

15 UCLA

Last season: 9-5

Key Games: 9/14 at Nebraska, 10/19 at Stanford, 10/26 at Oregon, 11/30 at USC

USC gets all the love, but there’s another team in Los Angeles that folks need to pay attention to. Once upon a time the UCLA Bruins…admittedly a school better known for its storied basketball team…had a fairly solid football tradition. Bruins alums include such names as Troy Aikman, Jonathan Ogden, Freeman McNeil, Floyd Reese, & Maurice Jones-Drew. They dominated the Pac 10 for much of the 1980s and have been to 12 Rose Bowls, the last being in 1998. However, they have been average at best for most of the past decade. That started to change last year with a 9-5 record under new head coach Jim Mora Jr. Here is how I see this going down. There is a fairly good chance that this team loses all three of the initial key games I’ve selected. If we assume they win the other 8 then that means the season comes down to the rivalry showdown with USC, and it is completely with the realm of possibility that a division crown and an opportunity to play in the conference championship game (likely against Oregon or Stanford) will be on the line. It’ll be nice to have the Battle of L.A. mean something again.

16 Oklahoma State

Last Season: 8-5

Key Games: 10/19 vs. TCU, 11/16 at Texas, 12/7 vs. Oklahoma

I believe The Big 12 will be a three horse race and Oklahoma St. will be in that conversation. The Cowboys are almost always an offensive juggernaut. In 2012 they score 35+ points nine times. One of their five losses was in overtime to in-state rival Oklahoma and another was by just 5 points to Texas. The Cowboys replace offensive coordinators more often than Van Halen changes lead singers but it doesn’t seem to matter all that much. My biggest concern is the defense. In those 5 losses last year Oklahoma St.’s defense gave up over 47 points per game. That has to change this season and I think it will. The October matchup against TCU is huge. I have gone out on a limb and predicted that the Horned Frogs will not be the Top 25 team that most other polls say they are so the Cowboys need to justify my logic by winning that particular game. Even if they lose to both Texas & Oklahoma they’ll still be in the hunt as long as they win their other 10 games.

17 Texas A&M

Last Season: 11-2

Key Games: 9/14 vs. Alabama, 11/23 at LSU

The most important question for the Aggies might be how many victories they have to vacate down the road when the NCAA finds that Heisman winning WB Johnny Manziel got paid to autograph memorabilia. However, since that issue is a complete wildcard we’ll just have to let that all take care of itself when the time is right and deal with what we think we know about the team. If we take Manziel at face value as a legit player who won’t be disqualified for being a filthy cheater…well…there are still issues. First of all I am not at all sure that he was deserving of that Heisman. Secondly, since winning the award Johnny Football has seemed to be just a bit too enamored with himself and his celebrity status. How will this affect his play and the team chemistry in 2013?? Obviously I don’t think it’ll be that big of a deal. Can the Aggies upset Alabama a second consecutive year?? I highly doubt it although the game is in College Station. But even with a loss there they should reach the end of November with a 9-1 record before heading to Baton Rouge to face LSU. That’ll be a huge game.

18 Fresno State

Last Season: 9-4

Key Games: 9/20 vs. Boise St.

Traditionally I have a shot-in-the-dark pick in these rankings. It doesn’t take much skill to put a bunch of SEC & Big Ten teams in a Top 25…it’s just putting them in the right order that’s tricky. But…contrary to what the TV people would have you believe…college football is more than just the 4 or 5 “power conferences”. They play some pretty decent football in the MAC, Mountain West, & C-USA. I have been a Fresno St. fan for awhile now. Their games are always entertaining and they have been a bowl team in 12 of the past 13 seasons. Senior QB Derek Carr is the younger brother of David Carr, who may not have had much of an NFL career but was the NCAA’s most prolific passer in 2001. There’s got to be something in the genes, right?? Much like the Cincinnati Bearcats the season for Fresno St. boils down to one big game. My vibes have led me to jump off the Boise St. bandwagon this year and this game on September 20^th will…in the words of Billy Joel…have me walking away a fool or a king.

19 Notre Dame

Last Season: 12-1

Key Games: 9/7 at Michigan, 9/21 vs. Michigan St., 9/28 vs. Oklahoma, 11/30 at Stanford

A year ago I reluctantly ranked the hated Irish #21 and said that they “will almost certainly lose atleast 3 of the 4” key games I’d selected. Instead they went undefeated before screwing the pooch in the National Championship. Okay…so I am not always right. I’m honest about that fact. However, that being said I am once again ranking Notre Dame just a bit lower than most other polls. Sophomore Everett Golson is gone for the season after seemingly forgetting the “student” part of the student-athlete equation. Senior QB Tommy Rees isn’t a bad fallback option, but one has to believe that there is a reason he lost the starting gig to Golson a year ago. Oh yeah…now I remember. Rees was boozing it up at a party and got into a scuffle with the cops which led to a brief suspension therefore opening the door for Golson. Those Irish coaches sure can pick ‘em, huh?? At any rate, Rees now gets another opportunity. Linebacker Manti Te’o has moved on to the NFL (no word on the whereabouts of imaginary dead girlfriend Lennay Kekua), and RBs Theo Riddick & Cierre Wood are also gone. So why rank Notre Dame?? One reason…head coach Brian Kelly. He is undoubtedly one of the best coaches in college football and I believe in his football prowess & motivational skill. Notre Dame’s schedule is always always always brutal, but I still believe they’ll find a way to win 9 or 10 games.

20 Florida

Last Season: 11-2

Key Games: 10/12 at LSU, 11/2 vs. Georgia, 11/16 at South Carolina, 11/30 vs. Florida St.

The Gators are the 4^th of 5 SEC teams in our countdown. Normally this would make me a bit skittish, but six SEC teams finished 2012 in the Top 25, and we all know that the talking heads love to fawn all over the SEC. Can they split the 4 key games noted above?? Florida has played in a bowl game for 22 consecutive years so it is difficult to fathom that they could ever be anything less than atleast pretty good. These are not the Steve Spurrier/Urban Myer Gators of Danny Wuerffel, Shane Matthews, Chris Leak, or Rex Grossman. Head coach Will Muschamp likes to run the ball and was able to do so effectively in 2012 with RB Mike Gillislee who has moved on to the NFL. I expect junior QB Jeff Driskel to grow considerably in that role this season. The biggest question will be the defense. It was a top 5 group in 2012, but several players, including DT Sharrif Floyd and safety Matt Elam, are now getting paid to play on Sunday. But Muschamp is a former defensive coordinator so he knows how to build a defense. The Gators will need to steal atleast 1 and preferably 2 of the key games noted above to secure a Top 25 ranking.

21 Northwestern

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 10/5 vs. Ohio St., 10/12 at Wisconsin, 11/2 at Nebraska, 11/6 vs. Michigan, 11/23 vs. Michigan St.

Northwestern is generally considered more of an academic school, but they have had some success on the football field, winning 8 or more games six times since 1995. I really like Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who I recall being a tough linebacker for the Wildcats in the mid-1990’s when they won two consecutive Big Ten titles. Fitzgerald has led his team to 5 straight bowl games. If Northwestern can win just 2 of their 5 key games (easier said than done) and win the other 8 games that they should win this could very well be a 9 or 10 win team.

22 Michigan St.

Last Season: 7-6

Key Games: 9/21 at Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Michigan, 11/16 at Nebraska, 11/23 at Northwestern

I know I have mentioned this before but I’m not at all fond of using multiple quarterbacks. You pick a guy and go with him until he gives you a reason to make a change. But as of this writing my intel says that there are 3 or 4 guys who could take snaps for the Spartans. I actually had this team ranked significantly higher until I read that. At any rate, games at Notre Dame and Nebraska could make or break the season for Michigan St. And of course the annual in-state rivalry clash with the Wolverines is always big…and in 2013 it’s in East Lansing. You may be intrigued that I consider Northwestern to be an important game. The way I see it The Big Ten (which has 12 teams) has the potential to have 5 or 6 pretty good teams. Ohio St., Michigan, & Nebraska are legit Top 10 programs. The second tier consists of Wisconsin, Michigan St., & Northwestern, making the Spartans-Wildcats late November matchup likely a deciding factor when it comes to poll position and bowl bids.

23 LSU

Last Season: 10-3

Key Games: 8/31 vs. TCU, 9/28 at Georgia, 10/12 vs. Florida, 11/9 at Alabama, 11/23 vs. Texas A&M

It won’t take long for us to find out exactly what the Bayou Bengals are made of in 2013. The TCU Horned Frogs are a team that I am overlooking, but most other pre-season polls seem to believe they are a solid Top 25 team. I expect LSU to defeat them, but there’ll be more to it than simply who wins and who loses. If LSU handles their business and beats TCU effortlessly it could bode well for the remainder of the year. However, if LSU struggles mightily and merely ekes out a victory it could portend future doom in the stacked SEC. The best thing I can say about a murderous schedule is that atleast LSU gets two weeks to prepare for tough games against Alabama and Texas A&M. Winning just two of the 5 key games I’ve listed should mean a 9 win season and solidify a Top 25 ranking.

24 Tulsa

Last Season: 11-3

Key Games: 9/14 at Oklahoma, 11/14 vs. Marshall

The defending Conference USA Champions are unlikely to take anyone by surprise this year but that’s okay. I see no reason why they can’t again win a revamped conference (their last in C-USA before joining the American Athletic Conference in 2014). I don’t expect them to defeat Oklahoma in mid-September, but that game could tell us a lot. If Tulsa gets blown out by 50 points then they are unlikely to sniff the Top 25 even if they win the conference. However, if they can be somewhat competitive against the Sooners…maybe a 38-21 type of contest…and win the remainder of their games then maybe they can sneak into the rankings.

25 BYU

Last Season: 8-5

Key Games: 9/7 vs. Texas, 10/25 vs. Boise St., 11/9 at Wisconsin, 11/23 at Notre Dame

I seem to have an odd BYU fetish. For two straight years I have had them ranked #10 in this pre-season poll. In 2011 they won 10 games but finished unranked and in 2012 they went 8-5. The schedule is undoubtedly brutal. Winning even one of the key games noted above will be a difficult task…winning 2+ will be darn near impossible. So let’s be generous and say the Cougars go 1-3 in these games and even go a step further by predicting that they won’t get completely destroyed in the losses. Then it becomes atleast within the realm of possibility that they could win 8 or 9 games. And any team that could achieve that level of success under such demanding circumstances would deserve to be ranked.

College Football 2013 Top 25 Preview: No. 12 LSU Tigers (thebiglead.com)
The Buckeyes are Back! (saturdayswithnick.wordpress.com)
Meyer began SEC title run, now wants to end it (goerie.com)
Uncle Howie’s NCAA Conference Picks (dimetown.com)
Meyer began SEC title run, now wants to end it (observer-reporter.com)
Why We ALL Should Be Rooting AGAINST the SEC This Season (secexposed.wordpress.com)
College Football Preview: A breakdown of UT’s opponents (govolsxtra.com)
Game of Throws: Ranking the Top CFB QBs (chicagoreport.wordpress.com)
Texas A&M football tickets most expensive in SEC on resale market (khou.com)
The History of Football (personalcreations.com)

Winning & Musing…..Volume 1.13

Welcome to the first W&M in nearly 6 months and the first edition of 2013. There are a few loose ends to tie up, plus some football playoff action to cover. Enjoy!!

I went 3-4 in the last week of the Pigskin Picks of Profundity, making my final overall record 46-71-1. That’s a 39% winning percentage. In baseball that’d get me a batting title & a probable MVP, but in football it makes me about as successful as the Buffalo Bills. I’m already looking forward to next season when there’s nowhere to go but up.

I did slightly better with my college bowl picks, going 18-17 for a 51% winning percentage. Heck, 51% would get me elected President of the United States!!

Much too much has been made of ESPN talking head Brent Musberger fawning over Alabama QB AJ McCarron’s beauty queen girlfriend during the national title game. I happened to catch Musberger’s comments (Monday Night Raw was in commercial), and didn’t think he came across as anything remotely close to a creepy old man. He simply pointed out a lovely young lady. Have we gotten so eaten up by political correctness that we cannot give proper recognition to beauty when we observe it?? Shame on ESPN for “apologizing” for the comments. I got your back Brent…even if your employer doesn’t.

I have no issue with no one being voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame this year. The fact is that guys like Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jack Morris, & Edgar Martinez were very good players but not Hall-of-Famers, and there was no way in Hell that known cheaters like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, & Mark McGwire were going to get voted in. Maybe someday…but not now. A case could conceivably be made for Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Tim Raines, & Dale Murphy, and I think that most if not all of that foursome will get elected eventually, but I won’t lose any sleep over them not getting in this time.

So I guess they resolved the NHL labor dispute and an abbreviated season will begin shortly. I still don’t care.

The NCAA football playoff cannot get here fast enough for me. I hadn’t planned on watching much of the BCS (emphasis on the BS) national championship game between Alabama & Notre Dame anyway because I generally need an underdog to root for and that game didn’t provide one, and as it turned out I certainly didn’t miss much. In contrast, just think of what might have occurred if we’d had a 4 team playoff between those two teams, Oregon, and either Florida or Kansas State. Surely Oregon would have given Alabama a little bit more of a fight in the title game…maybe.

I would be remiss if I did not address the huge letdown that was the 7-6 season for my hometown West Virginia Mountaineers. I hesitate to say the following but it is the honest truth. Before the season I told my Dad and I believe my nephew Zach that I thought the step up in competition from the Big East to the Big 12 would be a bigger deal for the Mountaineers than most seemed to be expecting and that I wouldn’t be surprised if they went 6-6. I kept that opinion on the down low because most folks in my orbit were caught up in the hype of a possible national championship run and a strong Heisman candidacy for QB Geno Smith. You may have noticed that the ‘Eers were not ranked in my pre-season Top 25, but other than that I just kind of kept my negative vibes to myself. Hindsight is 20/20 and I regret not shouting my prediction from the rooftops because I would have looked like a genius. I must admit that I was sincerely hoping I might be wrong and it looked like I could be after WVU began the season 5-0, including an impressive win at Texas. However, it is difficult to overcome a horrendous defense that ranks 117^th in points allowed and makes every opponent’s pedestrian QB look like Johnny Unitas. Even after all that though I thought the Mountaineers would crush Syracuse in their bowl game for a variety of reasons, but I was way off base. Getting out of the Big East was surely a necessity, but in retrospect it might have behooved the powers-that-be to be a little more patient and wait for an eventual ACC invite, because it looks like it’s going to be a rough road for WVU in the Big 12.

The NFL coaching carousel is always entertaining. I think the KC Chiefs made a great hire in Andy Reid, who is a solid head coach who just needed a change of scenery. The firing of Lovie Smith by the Chicago Bears was mildly surprising, especially since the truth is that it doesn’t matter who the head coach is while headcase Jay Cutler is the QB. Cutler simply does not have what it takes to lead an NFL team to greatness. Lovie will land on his feet just like Reid did, and whoever hires him will instantly become better.

Speaking of the Chiefs…

They are “on the clock” with the first pick in April’s NFL Draft and all the “experts” seem to think they just won’t be able to pass up WV Mountaineer QB Geno Smith. As a lifelong Mountaineer fan I am here to give a friendly warning to the Chiefs…run. Trade the pick, choose a can’t miss offensive lineman, or roll the dice on USC signal caller Matt Barkley. Geno has bust written all over him. He reminds me a little bit of Akili Smith, who wowed scouts during his senior year at Oregon in 1998 with 3700 yards passing & 32 TDs, was taken 3^rd overall in the 1999 draft by the Cincinnati Bengals (ahead of guys like Edgerrin James, Champ Bailey, & Ricky Williams), then proceeded to only throw for 2200 yards & 5 touchdowns over the course of the next four years. Yes most of the disappointment of this past WVU season can be laid at the feet of the Mountaineer’s porous defense, but Geno came up small in a lot of games and in some important moments. I have a strong suspicion that he’ll be a huge regret to any team that picks him very high in the draft.

I chose only half of the NFL’s playoff field correctly in my season preview last fall, but we still may be on track for my predicted Super Bowl matchup of Green Bay vs. New England, although at this point I would actually much prefer a Denver vs. Seattle game.

ESPN apologizes for Musberger’s comments about QB’s girlfriend (tbo.com)
Brent Musberger, Katherine Webb, And Football’s Culture Toward Women (thinkprogress.org)
Leave Brent Musberger Alone (ronntorossian.com)
ESPN apologizes for Brent Musberger’s attention to AJ McCarron’s girlfriend during BCS title game (offthebench.nbcsports.com)
Eagles To Talk With Lovie… (stevenjeffries.wordpress.com)
Miss Alabama Katherine Webb in Spotlight Following Brent Musburger’s Comments (shoppingblog.com)
Katherine Webb Might Be Brent Musberger’s BCS Championship MVP [PHOTOS] (coedmagazine.com)
Lovie Smith Set to Interview For Eagles Top Coaching Job (atlantablackstar.com)

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 13

Why is it that baseball, which I like but not THAT much, and basketball, which is okay but not really special, both have seasons that seem to drag on for eons, while football, which I adore, is seemingly over in the blink of an eye?? Don’t worry fellow fans…we haven’t reached the end of the road just yet, but on the collegiate level the conference title games are here and potential bowl matchups are already being pondered. In the NFL crunch time is fast approaching, with some teams already facing must win scenarios to remain in the playoff conversation. Here at The Manofesto your humble Potentate of Profundity has had two straight 4-3 weeks, which brings my overall record up to 36-53-1. I’d have to have a stunningly strong finish to get to .500, but one never knows, right?? I think we’ll go with a strictly college lineup this week since it’s the last hurrah for them and we’re going to be restricted to just the NFL going forward.

Louisville at Rutgers (-3)

The Big East doesn’t have a title game. Hell, they barely have a conference. At any rate, this game will serve as a de facto championship contest, as the winner will get the automatic BCS berth, likely to face the ACC champion in The Orange Bowl. Just for kicks…and because I picked them to finish 20^th in my pre-season Top 25…I’ll pick the upset here and go with Louisville.

Boise St. (-8.5) at Nevada

Ahhh…Boise St…remember them?? After being “BCS Busters” the past few years they have largely been forgotten about in 2012 despite having a stellar 9-2 record. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have compiled a solid yet unimpressive 7-4 season. I don’t think this’ll be much of a game, and it will certainly get lost in the shuffle amidst all the conference championship games on the schedule. The good news for both of these teams is that they will be going bowling…Nevada has already accepted a bid to the December 15^th New Mexico Bowl, while the Broncos might be heading to Vegas a week later. As for this game, Boise is the pick.

Central Florida at Tulsa

This contest is all even according to the folks in Vegas, and it is the Conference USA championship game, which means it is slightly less important than the Big East game and in a tight race with explosive diarrhea & anything starring a Wayans brother on the interest scale. That being said, I did pick the 9-3 Knights to finish 16^th in my pre-season poll, so I suppose I shall stick with that and pick Central Florida to get the win.

UCLA at Stanford (-9)

Didn’t these two teams just play each other?? Yes…yes they did. Stanford smoked the Bruins 35-17 just a few days ago in Pasadena, and now this game will determine who will get to return to Pasadena in January to represent the Pac 12 in The Rose Bowl. This time the two combatants meet on Stanford’s home turf in Palo Alto. Of course it isn’t as if Bruin fans can’t take a short plane ride to see the game, although the 400 mile jaunt may be a bit of a trek in a car. Anyway, I see no reason to believe that the result will be any different this time, especially with a trip to the beloved Granddaddy of All Bowl Games on the line. Stanford should win by a comfortable margin.

Alabama (-7.5) vs. Georgia

Not only is this the vaunted SEC title game, but the victor is assured a spot in the national championship to face Notre Dame. Of course every football fan in the country, and especially all the media types & TV suits at ESPN are already having nocturnal emissions in anticipation of a ‘Bama-ND matchup, but the Tide must get by the Bulldogs first. I must admit that I left the Bulldogs out of my pre-season poll because I figured that someone in the SEC would have to get squeezed out. I incorrectly chose Tennessee & Arkansas to have good seasons, which of course they did not. Instead it is Georgia who stands in the way of the greatest game in the history of any sport with a ball (if you believe the talking heads). Interestingly enough this is…technically…a neutral site game being played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. I have a feeling this could end up being a really fun contest. I will stop short of picking an outright upset, but I do sincerely believe that if Alabama wins it will not be by more than a touchdown, so Georgia is the pick.

Texas at Kansas St. (-10.5)

The Wildcats were in line to play for the national title until inexplicably stumbling against a very average Baylor club a couple of weeks ago. They can still make it to the BCS (likely the Fiesta Bowl) with a win here, but the 8-3 Longhorns will have a lot to say about that. Also at stake is K-State QB Collin Klein’s last chance to impress Heisman voters. There’s been a big push in the last few weeks for Texas A&M signal caller Johnny Manziel and Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te’o, but Klein could get the nod with a strong performance in this game. The Longhorns might get a bid to the Cotton Bowl with a win. Regardless of who ultimately comes out on top I don’t think it’ll be a double digit victory, so Texas is the pick.

Wisconsin vs. Nebraska (-2.5)

This is the Big Ten championship game and will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis. The Badgers are 7-5 and actually finished 3^rd in their division, but because no one at their school molested little boys or traded merchandise for tattoos & lied about it they get the opportunity to play for the title and represent the conference in The Rose Bowl. These two teams played one another at the end of September in Lincoln, with the Cornhuskers eeking out a 3 point win. The Badgers come into the contest limping a bit, having lost their last two games to Tattoo U. & Pedophile St. There is no logical reason in the world to pick Wisconsin, and for once I will actually go with the prevailing logic and pick Nebraska.

Long Shot Scenario Has NIU Thinking Orange Bowl (chicago.cbslocal.com)
2012 bowl projections: Stanford picked for Rose Bowl (bayarea.sbnation.com)
Bowl Projections – Compiled from the web November 26, 2012 (bowlbound.wordpress.com)
Discover Fan Loyalty Poll: Projecting BCS Bowl Matchups Entering Championship Weekend (thepigskinreport.com)
BCS Bowl Match Ups – Early Look (ryandoak1.wordpress.com)
Bowl Projections 2012: Predicting BCS Matchups After Week 13 Games (bleacherreport.com)
BCS: Notre Dame, SEC winner to play for title (espn.go.com)
BCS standings sets up SEC title game as de facto national semifinal (cbssports.com)

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