Geno Smith

2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 8

We’re trying something new again folks!! This week we’re each picking three separate games, and there are four games we’ll both pick. I hope that makes sense. The season contest is tight and there are a plethora of really interesting matchups, so why not shake things up a little bit, right?? 

My Season: 21-18

Zach’s Season: 22-17

Mississippi State (-7) at Kentucky 

The Wildcats are on a two game losing skid, while the Bulldogs have won three in a row. Kentucky’s Will Levis, a potential Heisman candidate & possibly one of the top quarterbacks in next spring’s NFL Draft, missed last week’s game with a foot injury, and he may or may not be back this weekend. That puts me in an odd position, because with Levis I like the home team, but without him I agree with the oddsmakers. I’m a big believer in home field advantage, so I’m going to hedge my bets and hope that even without Levis the underdogs stay closer that a touchdown. 

My Pick: Kentucky 

Clemson (-3.5) at Florida State

A decade ago this was a marquee matchup, but the Seminoles have fallen on hard times. At 4-2 perhaps a turnaround is on the horizon, but they face a tall task. The Tigers are undefeated and in the playoff hunt. I don’t believe they’ll finish that high, but, as much as I’d love to pick the upset, I don’t think Clemson’s downfall will occur in Tallahassee. 

My Pick: Clemson 

Arizona (-3) at Seattle

The NFC West  certainly reflects parity in the NFL, which is a nice way of saying that none of the teams in the division have separated themselves from the pack & look much more ordinary than most anticipated. I’m not at all surprised that the 2-3 Seahawks have struggled, but the Cards’ 2-3 start is a bit unexpected. I still believe Arizona is a better team, but Seattle enjoys one of the greatest  home fields in the league, and QB Geno Smith has proven himself worthy thus far, so I’m pulling the trigger on an upset. 

My Pick: Seattle 

James Madison (-10.5) at Georgia Southern 

The 5-0 Dukes are ranked in the Top 25 and undoubtedly would like to stay there. The Eagles have lost two in a row and find themselves cellar dwelling in the Sun Belt. This is a 4pm kickoff on ESPN+, and I don’t think many doubt the outcome. The big question is are the points too much?? Zach doesn’t think so. He foresees a huge, high scoring beatdown.

Zach’s Pick: James Madison 

USC at Utah (-3.5)

The Trojans are ahead of schedule thus far, coming into this one unbeaten & ranked in the Top Ten. However, I predicted they’d lose atleast once and specifically mentioned this game and a late November battle with Notre Dame. That being said, I also expected the Utes to be better than 4-2 at this point. Specifically they are 0-2 against ranked teams. Zach thinks USC is actually underrated, and even though he respects Utah’s team speed he smells an upset brewing. 

Zach’s Pick: USC 

Dallas at Philadelphia (-5)

In the immortal words of the late, great Keith Jackson…whooooaaa Nellie!! NBC has themselves a ratings grabber. The Eagles are undefeated, while the Cowboys look like they have one of the better defenses to come down the pike in quite awhile. It doesn’t even matter that they’re starting an undrafted free agent out of Central Michigan at quarterback. Philly has the home field, but it’s possible that Dallas QB Dak Prescott could return from the thumb injury that has kept him out of action the past month. In other words, there are a lot of variables to consider. Zach isn’t sure who’ll come out on top, but thinks the winning margin will be under five points. 

Zach’s Pick: Dallas 

Miami (FL) (-7.5) at Virginia Tech

I’m a sucker for these old Big East battles. Call it nostalgia I suppose. The 2-3 Hurricanes are struggling, but the 2-4 Hokies aren’t any better. I hope everyone is enjoying that ACC money while being an afterthought in college athletics. It’s one of those games that I wish both teams could lose, which obviously won’t happen. Even though my WV Mountaineers beat Tech in Blacksburg earlier this season I still think it’s a formidable home field, so I believe they’ll atleast keep things close. Zach thinks the home team will start hot but cool off on the second half, allowing Miami to pull away for the win. 

My Pick: Virginia Tech 

Z’s Pick: Miami (FL)

LSU at Florida (-2.5)

Even though both teams come into this game at 4-2 and only battling for pride & bowl positioning to a couple of late December games no one will watch it’s still a compelling matchup that ESPN will hype the hell out of to make it seem important. I suppose it does matter to a degree in recruiting, so there is that. The Swamp is a difficult place to play, and the Gators seem to be trending in the right direction after losing three straight in September. Zach believes LSU will be competitive for awhile, but The Swamp is just too big of an obstacle to overcome. 

My Pick: Florida 

Z’s Pick: Florida 

Alabama (-7.5) at Tennessee

We have arrived at this week’s Greatest, Biggest, Most Monumental Game of All Time. The Vols aren’t getting much respect from the folks in Vegas, but perhaps that has more to do with their opponents than anything. ‘Bama is a proven commodity, with a track record of championships & steamrolling opponents…recent history that has actually occurred in this century. Conversely, Tennessee hasn’t won 10+ games in consecutive seasons since the late 90s. But…what about this year?? Not only is Neyland Stadium in Knoxville a daunting venue for visitors, but the home team is undefeated against a pretty solid schedule. The Tide is ranked #3, but struggled to beat Texas A&M last weekend without QB Bryce Young, the reigning Heisman winner who is dealing with an injured shoulder. If Young plays Alabama has a great chance at victory…if he sits again Tennessee should win comfortably. My vibe is that Young plays at less than 100%, leading his team in a valiant effort that falls short. Conversely, Zach thinks it’ll be Alabama’s defense that will lead them to an impressive victory. 

My Pick: Tennessee 

Z’s Pick: Alabama 

Buffalo (-2.5) at Kansas City  

The 4-1 Bills beat the hell out of our Steelers last weekend, but face a much more worthy opponent on Sunday. The 4-1 Chiefs are going to be good as long as Patrick Mahomes is leading the charge, so this game comes down to defense. Will it be a high scoring shootout, or can one of these defenses rise up and prove themselves?? After missing four games with an ankle injury will KC kicker Harrison Butker be active?? I foresee a high scoring game decided by special teams late in the 4th quarter, and The Vibes are telling me the home team will score a mild upset. Zach thinks Josh Allen is actually a better QB right now, and Kansas City can look a little sluggish at times. He thinks a last minute drive to win the game will be led by Allen. 

My Pick: Kansas City  

Z’s Pick: Buffalo 

2014 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 7

Last weekend was a bloodbath. There’s no other way to soft sell it. One of the keys to success in the prognostication arts is being able to predict big upsets and last week college football had more than its fair share…very few of which I saw coming. As a fan it was lots of fun to watch, but for the purpose of these picks it was viciously humbling. I ended up going 3-4. Both Zach & I picked Arizona & Virginia Tech correctly, and I was happy to see Nebraska stage a late comeback to atleast cover the points even though they didn’t win. Zach was 4-3 and picked both Mississippi St. and Notre Dame correctly. We both completely whiffed by picking LSU & Alabama. You know it’s a wacky year when both of those teams lose in the same day. So the season records look like this:

Me = 15-18
Zach = 16-16

There are several big college games again this week but I prefer to have a little variety and not pick games involving the same teams week after week. With the NFL this is somewhat unavoidable because there are only 32 teams, but the NCAA has a much bigger selection from which to choose and so we shall.

 

 

 

 

 

TCU at Baylor (-8.5)
The Horned Frogs are 4-0 and coming off a surprising upset of Oklahoma. Baylor is now a legitimate part of the national playoff conversation but they need to keep baylorwinning. I am sure TCU will put forth their best effort, but don’t believe they are an authentic Top 10 team. This game is in Waco and the home team should roll to a solid double digit victory. Zach likes the Bears’ high powered offense and expects that it’ll be hard for TCU to get revved up for another big upset so soon.

My Pick = Baylor
Z’s Pick = Baylor

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Louisville at Clemson (-10.5)
Louisville-CardinalsThe Cardinals have represented themselves rather well in their inaugural season in the ACC. They are 5-1 and currently in 2nd place in theirclemson division. I must admit I did not think they’d be that successful this season, especially after losing QB Teddy Bridgewater to the NFL. Conversely Clemson is 3-2 and hasn’t done well against stiff competition. They lost a lot of talent to the NFL and it has shown. I don’t think Louisville will win this game, but I do think they’ll play good enough to cover the points. Zach disagrees and thinks Clemson will win in a blowout.

My Pick = Louisville
Z’s Pick = Clemson

 

 

Denver (-8) at NY Jets
8 point spreads in the NFL are almost like 20 points in the collegiate ranks. Theoretically these guys are all professional athletes and no team should get shellacked denverby 2 or 3 touchdowns. However we all know that it does happen. This spread is especially insulting to the Jets since they are the home team. However, I do agree that the Broncos are a team on a mission…Super Bowl or bust…and that New York is a hot mess without a good starting QB and with a head coach who has to feel the noose tightening. I’d be surprised if the game isn’t essentially over at halftime and Peyton Manning isn’t chillin’ on the sidelines by the 4th quarter. Zach concurs.

My Pick = Denver
Z’s Pick = Denver

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Dallas at Seattle (-8)
seattle-seahawks1I know everyone is jumping on the Dallas bandwagon, but I’m not buying it. They are 4-1 but three of their wins are over teams with a dallas-cowboys-logo2combined record of 4-10. Simmer down Cowboys fans…no need to be more obnoxious than usual just yet. Philadelphia is still going to win the division. Meanwhile the defending champs are 3-1 and I think their early season loss to the San Diego Chargers will actually prove beneficial. It’s really easy for champions to become complacent but the Seahawks got a wake-up call and now seem to be back on track. I think this will be an easy win for Seattle. Zach isn’t a Cowboys fan but does believe that there is good reason for folks to have high expectations. He thinks Dallas is a solid playoff team and will atleast cover the points in this one.

My Pick = Seattle
Z’s Pick = Dallas

 

 

NY Giants at Philadelphia (-2.5)
philadelphia_eagles-3715The Giants are another team that everyone suddenly has renewed faith in, although it’s a bit more understandable in their case. They have aGiants Logo history of bouncing between being a playoff contender and a bottom dweller as effortlessly as Marty McFly travels thru time. On the flip side the Eagles are 4-1 but haven’t been quite as dominating as some (including me) expected. RB LeSean McCoy is only averaging 55 yds/game. To call that underwhelming would be like calling President Obama somewhat of a disappointment. Philly’s defense isn’t that good either, ranking 24th in the league against the run and 29th in passing defense. This is the Sunday night game and I think it’ll be a high scoring back & forth kind of contest with the home team getting the victory late in the 4th quarter. Zach agrees that it’ll be close but believes it will be the Giants that score late to seal the victory.

My Pick = Philadelphia
Z’s Pick = NY Giants

2014 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

I am so mad at myself. Sometimes something is so obviously staring one right in the face that we too easily look past it. Such was the case last week. There was a fantastic opportunity for me to go 5-0, which I think would have been the very first time in three years that has happened. I am far too lazy to research the archives in order to verify that fact. At any rate, instead I ended up going 3-2. Why?? Well, first of all, the Green Bay Packers only beat the NY Jets by 7 points. The spread was 8. That one wasn’t so much my fault as it was a Packers team who basically phoned it in and may have actually lost were it not for the inexplicable ineptitude of the Jets coaching staff. Then there was the major upset…the San Diego Chargers defeating the Seattle Seahawks. I should have seen it coming. There was no way the Seahawks were going to go undefeated. That just doesn’t happen. I am the guy who said in my NFL Preview that “Super Bowl Champions oftentimes slip a little the following season” while predicting a rather pedestrian 10-6 record for Seattle. At the same time I called the Chargers “sneaky good” and also predicted a 10-6 record as well as a playoff berth. The Seahawks had dismantled Green Bay in the opening game of the season while San Diego lost a heartbreaker to the Arizona Cardinals. Seattle-San Diego was a home game for the Chargers & a classic trap game for the Seahawks, and they fell into the trap. I should have seen it coming but I didn’t. The good news for me is that while I went 3-2 Zach went 1-4, which means our season thus far looks like this:

Me = 7-9
Zach = 7-8

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Iowa at Pitt (-6.5)
iowaI ranked Iowa 14th in my pre-season Top 25, but after a last second loss to in-state rival Iowa pittSt. they have some work to do if they’re going to fulfill that prophecy. Meanwhile, the hated Pitt Panthers have gotten off to a solid 3-0 start, including a victory at Boston College. Heinz Field isn’t much of a home advantage for the Panthers since there are usually only a few dozen people there on Saturdays, including vendors and homeless people hoping to score some scraps from discarded Primanti Brothers wrappers. Most folks in The ‘Burgh wait to spend their hard earned money on Sunday at the Steelers game. Pitt seems like they may be the real deal, but who knows?? I think this will be a close game and it is undoubtedly pivotal to both teams’ seasons. I’m going to support my own pre-season prediction by going with the Hawkeyes. Using the logic that Boston College beat USC and Pitt beat Boston College so therefore Pitt must be a legitimately good team (which actually does make sense) Zach is picking the Panthers to pound the ball with their rushing attack and win easily.

My Pick = Iowa
Z’s Pick = Pitt

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Florida at Alabama (-14.5)
Where is the love for ‘Bama?? Are we just so use to them being a top team that we don’t even feel the need to discuss themflorida gators image anymore?? Is there a bit of Tide fatigue amongst the masses?? The answer is probably yes on both counts. However, this game should receive a fair amount of attention. Florida isn’t back to its Spurrier/Urban Meyer heyday just yet, but they are 2-0. Yes it took them 3 overtimes to beat Kentucky last week. I think they may have been looking ahead just a bit. Anyway, if this game were at The Swamp it’d be really intriguing, but alas it is in Tuscaloosa. Therefore I believe there is probably not much of a doubt that Alabama will win. The question is by how much?? I am probably going to regret this, but I guess maybe I am one of the doubters. I think the Tide rolls, but by less than 14 ½ points. Zach has a man crush on Nick Saban but agrees with my assessment that this will be a close game.

My Pick = Florida
Z’s Pick = Florida

–

Clemson at Florida St. (-20)
There are no shortage of folks who already have had the #1 ranked Seminoles on upset alert. They were less than clemsonimpressive in a season opening victory over Oklahoma St., a game in which the Cowboys narrowed their deficit to within a touchdown with 2 minutes remaining but ran out of time to make anything else happen. Add in the fact that Florida St.’s quarterback, Heisman Trophy winner, upstanding citizen, scholar, gentleman, & all around class act Jameis Winston is suspended for the first half of this game because he is a moron. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 1-1 after a season opening loss to Georgia followed by dismantling an overmatched junior high team last week. I honestly don’t know how Clemson is still in anyone’s Top 25. They certainly haven’t earned such accolades. However, that could change with this game. Heck, if the game were being played at Memorial Stadium in South Carolina I might actually give them a puncher’s chance to win. However, it is in Tallahassee. The point spread does concern me just a bit. Florida St. has put up only 37 points in each of its first two contests. I think Clemson will be overmatched but motivated, while I am not sure the apprehension of the doubters has reached enough of a crescendo for Florida St. to pay much attention…yet. Zach not only agrees but is boldly predicting an outright Clemson victory. That boy has a set of brass ones. He gets it from his mother’s side of the family.

My Pick = Clemson
Z’s Pick = Clemson

–

Denver at Seattle (-5)
For anyone who may have been hiding out in one of those bomb shelters from the 60’s recently, this is a rematch of last denverseason’s Super Bowl. In that game the Seahawks’ defense made living legend Peyton Manning look like…well…Eli Manning and cruised to a 43-8 victory that was even more underwhelming than Bruno Mars’ halftime show. But the beauty of the NFL is that every season is new and teams can change…both for the good and the not so good…at the drop of a hat. The Broncos made notable improvements to their defense, while Seattle lost a few pieces, although I don’t think it’s had a significant impact so far. Adding intrigue to this game is the fact that the defending champions, as previously mentioned, were upset last week. Could they really lose two games in a row?? Is Denver as good as their 2-0 record indicates?? The revenge factor for the Broncos cannot be overlooked, but neither can the anger of the Seahawks after a tough loss. This is a hard game to figure out, but I’m going to roll the dice on Manning and go with the underdogs. Zach concurs.

My Pick = Denver
Z’s Pick = Denver

–

Chicago at NY Jets (-2.5)
Jets-Pin-ProThe Bears spoiled the opening of their brand new stadium for the San Francisco 49ers last chicago-bears-logo13Sunday night and looked pretty good in doing it, especially in the 4th quarter. But let us not forget that they lost their season opener at home in three OTs to the Buffalo Bills. The Jets are 1-1 as well. So basically no one really knows what to expect in this game. New York gets the nominal home field advantage but I’m not sure that means much. This is the story of two quarterbacks. The Bears’ Jay Cutler is, in my opinion, overrated. The Jets’ Geno Smith…a former WV Mountaineer…has potential and occasionally shows flashes but has been disappointing to some. I look for this to be a defensive battle defined by turnovers and lots of smashmouth football. Which QB will make the least mistakes?? Which one will make a blunder at the worst possible time?? Whose running game will dominate?? This is the Monday night game so I suppose I’ll stay up past my bedtime to find out. In a flip of the proverbial coin I’m going with the Jets. Zach disagrees and is picking the Bears.

My Pick = NY Jets
Z’s Picks = Chicago

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 15

Okay citizens, this is going to be another quick one. Your humble Potentate of Profundity has once again ran into some unfortunate computer issues and I have limited time in my secret Plan B bunker. In last week’s grand finale of college football’s regular season Zach 3-4 and I went 3-5, so our season records look like this:

                Zach       =             34-41

                Myself  =             38-38

From here on out we’ll be riding down the home stretch with the NFL where playoff berths and positioning will be the name of the game. It should be fun.

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New England (-1)             at            Miami

New_England_Patriots_HelmetThe Patriots are like a serial killer in a cheesy slasher flick…rumors of their demise are always greatly exaggerated. All the sudden they have aMiami_Dolphins_Helmet legit shot at being the top seed in the AFC playoffs. Meanwhile the Dolphins are clinging to a playoff spot like a Black Friday shopper who scored the first Xbox One but is now cornered by an angry mob of desperate mothers. In other words it doesn’t look promising. I’ll be cheering on Miami (because I truly loathe the Pats), but honestly the smart pick here is New England. Zach thinks the loss of tight end Rob Gronkowski will have a negative impact on New England, plus he feels like the Dolphins will be extra motivated with a wild card berth on the line.

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NY Jets                  at            Carolina (-11)

I have to give the Jets credit. I predicted that they’d win 2 games and they’ve already won 6. QB Geno Smith, while still inconsistent, has performed far better Jets-Pin-Prothan I thought he would. I don’t think they’re going to make the playoffs but kudos are still in order for having a much better season than anyone ever dreamed they would. My prediction was also a bit off about the Panthers, whom I thought would be a .500 team at best but instead they are 9-4 and look to have a wild card spot locked down unless they completely flame out over the next few weeks. I’m rather uncomfortable with the double digit point spread so even though I think Carolina will win I’m going to pick the Jets. Zach is on the same wavelength.

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Green Bay           at            Dallas (-7)

Nothing would give me more pleasure than to see the Cowboys go down. However, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers is still out with a collarbone injury so putting dallas-cowboys-dallas-cowboys-15496395-1280-1024one’s faith in backup Matt Flynn is a shaky proposition. Dallas’ defense is terrible but if the only thing they need to worry about is shutting down Green Bay’s rook RB Eddie Lacy that’ll make thinks a bit easier. If this game was being played on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field I’d probably go with the underdog even considering the quarterback situation, but it’s being played at The Death Star in Big D so I’ll go with Dallas. Zach concurs.

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New Orleans (-6)              at            St. Louis

The Saints need a victory to maintain their division lead, plus they are still in contention for home field in the NFC playoffs. The Rams are a mess. I’d be 10_new_orleans_saintsshocked if New Orleans didn’t win easily. Zach agrees.

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Baltimore            at            Detroit (-6)

I predicted the Lions would go 7-9 and finish last in their division. Instead they are currently 7-6 and lead the division. This is the Monday night game this week Detroit_Lions_Helmetand it should be a dandy. Weather won’t be an issue inside the comfortable confines of Ford Field, and I think Calvin Johnson will have a big game. This isn’t a spot that Detroit is used to whereas it is par for the course for the defending Super Bowl Champion Ravens who are in a battle for a playoff spot. I’m going to roll the dice on the Lions since they have the home field. Zach…like myself…has a strong dislike for the Ravens and refuses to pick them. He’s predicting a big game from Calvin Johnson as well.

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2013 NFL Preview & Prognostications

goodell-e1348946003302I strongly dislike Roger Goodell. He is by far the worst commissioner the NFL has had and maybe one of the worst suits in the history of organized sports at any level. I have been watching a lot of pre-season games A) because that’s just how I roll and B) because the NFL Network may be the greatest invention since the light bulb. It saddens me to see what Commissioner Fidel Goodell has done to the game of football. There’s a penalty on every other play. Defenders can’t hit a guy high, and now there’s a movement to ban hitting low due to knee injuries. What the heck is a defensive player supposed to do?? Most of the penalties I have seen called lately were, as recently as 2 or 3 years ago, just good solid football. And then there is the whole paralysis by analysis of what is and what isn’t a catch. When I was a kid a catch was a catch…but not anymore. Within 5-10 years pro football will be unwatchable and the destruction will be the fault of the evil Roger Goodell. The best thing for the NFL would be for Goodell to go away…one way or another…and for a new commissioner to simply say “Oh yeah…all that namby pamby “safety” crap…forget it. Let’s play fnflootball!!”. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon. In the meantime I suppose we’ll forge ahead with business as usual while the game still somewhat resembles the football we knew & loved. Each team’s 2012 record is in parentheses immediately followed by my prediction for this season’s outcome. As always I’ll remind you that your humble Potentate of Profundity does not condone gambling so if you wager your lunch money and lose don’t blame me. Enjoy!!

 

 

AFC

East

New England Patriots         

(12-4)  10-6

Miami Dolphins                    

(7-9)    8-8

Buffalo Bills                           

(6-10)  8-8

New York Jets                        

(6-10)  2-14

The Jets will be terrible and we all know it. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Mark Sanchez or rookie Geno Smith starting at quarterback. Head coach Rex Ryan might be gone bypatriots the time the bye week rolls around midway thru the season. Buffalo is starting someone named Jeff Tuel at QB in Week 1 which pretty much tells one all they need to know about the Bills. A lot of folks seem to be cautiously jumping on the Dolphins bandwagon but quite frankly I just don’t get it. They’ll be mediocre at best. So there is no doubt that the Patriots will walk away with their 11th division title in the past 13 years…the question is just how quickly they can clinch. I do think New England has plateaued and might take a tiny step back, but in this horrible division it will hardly be noticeable.

 

West

Denver Broncos                    

(13-3)  11-5

Kansas City Chiefs                 

(2-14)  9-7

Oakland Raiders                   

(4-12)  6-10

San Diego Chargers              

(7-9)    5-11

You want proof positive that life is unfair?? Terrelle Pryor is now a starting quarterback in the NFL while his former Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel is broncos-4759basically unemployable as a head coach until 2017. Not that Pryor’s presence behind center will help the Oakland Raiders all that much. This is Denver’s division to lose, and though I am a bit concerned about their defense after losing pass rusher Elvis Dumervil to an idiotic clerical error there are no such worries about Peyton Manning and the offense, especially after the addition of receiver Wes Welker. This will be Manning’s best opportunity to add another Super Bowl ring to his collection and I think he’ll make hay while the sun is shining. The Chiefs might be one of the most improved teams in the NFL after hiring new head coach Andy Reid and trading for QB Alex Smith.

 

South

Indianapolis Colts                 

(11-5)  11-5

Houston Texans                    

(12-4)  9-7

Tennessee Titans                  

(6-10)  8-8

Jacksonville Jaguars              

(2-14)  5-11

Colts’ QB Andrew Luck acquitted himself pretty well in his rookie season and I don’t think we’ll see any kind of sophomore slump in 2013. Indianapolis is a Indianapolis_Colts_Helmetyoung team that should continue to grow & achieve, and I really like the addition of running back Ahmad Bradshaw so long as he can stay healthy. What most pundits would likely disagree with is my assertion that the Texans will take a step backward. I am not at all convinced that running back Arian Foster can remain upright thru the entire season and top wideout Andre Johnson is now 32 years old. If first round draft pick DeAndre Hopkins, a wide receiver out of Clemson, can blossom early that might help. The other side of the ball features NFL Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt so there are no worries there. This might be a make or break year for Titans’ quarterback Jake Locker and I am not convinced he’ll deliver. It’d be helpful if running back Chris Johnson could somehow return to his 2009 incarnation when he ran for 2000 yards and scored 14 touchdowns. The Jags are probably going to be bad again, though maybe not quite as bad as last year. When your quarterback competition involves Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne that’s not a good sign.

 

North

Cincinnati Bengals               

(10-6)  11-5

Baltimore Ravens                 

(10-6)  10-6

Pittsburgh Steelers               

(8-8)    9-7

Cleveland Browns                 

(5-11)  7-9

This could be the most competitive division in the NFL in 2013. Opinions vary wildly about the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens. Some sayCincinnati_Bengals_Helmet this year’s Ravens are even better than last year. I can see that logic. The loss of safety Ed Reed and linebacker Ray Lewis won’t affect the team all that much on the field as both of those guys were old & slow. Baltimore added sack master Elvis Dumervil so theoretically the defense got younger & more athletic. But I just don’t think a team can go thru so many changes and not be affected. The loss of receiver Anquan Boldin…who was traded to San Francisco…is huge. Defending champs do generally make the playoffs but only 7 have ever repeated. The Bengals have quietly evolved from the Bungles to a nominal favorite to win the division. It is amazing what can be accomplished outside of a prison cell. The Browns are showing signs of life but aren’t quite ready to make a stir just yet. I actually read one fellow prognosticator who thinks the Steelers will win the division. Nothing would make me happier. However, I am very concerned about the offensive line (again), and as excited as I was when Pittsburgh drafted running back Le’veon Bell in the 2nd round that enthusiasm has been tempered by a pre-season foot injury that might keep the rookie off the field for the first couple of games.

 

Playoffs:                               

New England, Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Kansas City

AFC Championship:           Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

 

 

NFC

East

Washington Redskins          

(10-6)  10-6

Dallas Cowboys                     

(8-8)    9-7

New York Giants                   

(9-7)    8-8

Philadelphia Eagles              

(4-12)  7-9

I said that the AFC North might be the NFL’s most competitive division. Well here is a worthy rival. The Redskins season likely rests entirely on quarterback Washington_Redskins_logoRGIII’s recovery from a knee injury suffered in a playoff game last season. Will he start in Week 1?? Will the powers-that-be proceed with caution and hold him out for the first few weeks of the season?? When he does see action will he be the same multi-talented threat he used to be?? The Cowboys…as usual…have lofty expectations that they won’t achieve. If I were head coach Jason Garrett I wouldn’t lose my real estate agent’s number just yet. I like the Eagles’ selection of Chip Kelly as their new head coach and I think he’ll do well in due time…but there’ll be some growing pains. I can never seem to get a good read on the NY Giants. When I think they’ll be good they fall apart and when I predict they’ll suck they win the Super Bowl. So it is entirely possible they’ll be a game or two better than my prediction. Or a lot worse. I don’t know.

 

West

Seattle Seahawks                 

(11-5)  12-4

San Francisco 49ers             

(11-4-1) 10-6              

St. Louis Rams                       

(7-8-1)9-7

Arizona Cardinals                 

(5-11)  3-13

I’ll make one bold prediction. There will NOT be another tie this season!! The 49ers have history going against them as 28 out of 42 Super Bowl losers since seattle-seahawks11970 haven’t won a playoff game the next season. Twelve of those teams missed the postseason and 16 lost their first playoff game. I do think ‘Frisco takes a tiny step backward this season simply because everyone will be gunning for them. It’ll be an interesting battle between San Francisco & Seattle. The two teams play each other on 9/15 (in Seattle) and 12/8 (in San Francisco) and my vibe is that Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson will lead his team to a division title. The Rams lost RB Steven Jackson in the offseason but are stacked at the position with younger fresher legs. Quarterback Sam Bradford is at a crossroads in his career but the addition of speedy receiver Tavon Austin will help a lot. The Cardinals are a mess even though Carson Palmer has stabilized the quarterback position just a bit. Arizona will have to rely on their defense to get the job done and I think they need another year or two to gel.

 

South

New Orleans Saints              

(7-9)    10-6

Atlanta Falcons                     

(13-3)  10-6

Carolina Panthers                 

(7-9)    8-8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers        

(7-9)    7-9

There’s not much to say about Carolina & Tampa. I don’t see either team making a positive jump in 2013. I think they’ll just be treading water. The real 10_new_orleans_saintsaction will be at the top of the division where I think the Saints rebound from the collateral damage of BountyGate and get back on the winning track with head coach Sean Payton returning to the sideline. I expect quarterback Drew Brees to once again throw for 4000+ yards & 30+ touchdowns and the defense is now being led by new coordinator Rob Ryan which is a very good thing. Many of those TDs thrown by Brees will be caught by tight end Jimmy Graham who might just be the best in the business. One of my more…risky…forecasts is a slight decline for the Atlanta Falcons who came oh so close to going to The Super Bowl last season. The Falcons added running back Steven Jackson and defensive end Usi Umenyiora in the offseason which would seem to indicate that they believe this year is their big chance to finally get over the hump. Maybe they will. But I just don’t think it’s going to be quite that simple. I’ve been wrong before though.

 

North

Green Bay Packers                

(11-5)  10-6

Chicago Bears                         

(10-6)  9-7

Minnesota Vikings                 

(10-6)  8-8

Detroit Lions                          

(4-12)  7-9

Last year I sang the praises of the Green Bay Packers and predicted that they’d beat New England in the highest scoring Super Bowl of all time. They Green_Bay_Packers_Helmetpromptly went out and lost 3 of their first 5 games and were beaten by the 49ers in the second round of the playoffs. So my expectations are somewhat cowed this time around though I still predict a division crown…they’ll just have to work for it. The Bears are another team like the NY Giants…difficult to read. I’m not a fan of quarterback Jay Cutler although if anyone can bring out his best it is probably new head coach Marc Trestman. The Vikings of course have running back Adrian Peterson, but as good as he is I don’t think he’ll get anywhere near 2000 yards again. For Minnesota to make another run at the playoffs quarterback Christian Ponder will have to show some significant growth and the defense…led by pass rusher Jared Allen…will have to be stellar. Minnesota ranked 2nd in rushing offense last season but 31st in passing offense. They’ll need to find some balance in 2013. The Lions…much like the Cleveland Browns…have shown some occasional signs of life but just aren’t there quite yet.

 

Playoffs:       

Washington, New Orleans, Seattle, Green Bay, San Francisco, Atlanta

NFC Championship:           New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers

 

SB

San Francisco 49ers                       30

Denver Broncos                              34

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Winning & Musing…..Volume 1.13

Welcome to the first W&M in nearly 6 months and the first edition of 2013. There are a few loose ends to tie up, plus some football playoff action to cover. Enjoy!!

 

 

 

laces-football-grassI went 3-4 in the last week of the Pigskin Picks of Profundity, making my final overall record 46-71-1. That’s a 39% winning percentage. In baseball that’d get me a batting title & a probable MVP, but in football it makes me about as successful as the Buffalo Bills. I’m already looking forward to next season when there’s nowhere to go but up.

 

 

I did slightly better with my college bowl picks, going 18-17 for a 51% winning percentage. Heck, 51% would get me elected President of the United States!!

 

 

p1_brentMuch too much has been made of ESPN talking head Brent Musberger katherine-webb-aj-mccarron-girlfriendfawning over Alabama QB AJ McCarron’s beauty queen girlfriend during the national title game. I happened to catch Musberger’s comments (Monday Night Raw was in commercial), and didn’t think he came across as anything remotely close to a creepy old man. He simply pointed out a lovely young lady. Have we gotten so eaten up by political correctness that we cannot give proper recognition to beauty when we observe it?? Shame on ESPN for “apologizing” for the comments. I got your back Brent…even if your employer doesn’t.

 

 

I have no issue with no one being voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame this year. The fact is that guys010311_HoF like Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Jack Morris, & Edgar Martinez were very good players but not Hall-of-Famers, and there was no way in Hell that known cheaters like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa, & Mark McGwire were going to get voted in. Maybe someday…but not now. A case could conceivably be made for Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Tim Raines, & Dale Murphy, and I think that most if not all of that foursome will get elected eventually, but I won’t lose any sleep over them not getting in this time.

 

 

So I guess they resolved the NHL labor dispute and an abbreviated season will begin shortly. I still don’t care.

 

 

The NCAA football playoff cannot get here fast enough for me. I hadn’t planned on watching much of the BCS (emphasis on the BS) national championship game between Alabama & Notre Dame anyway because I generally need an underdog to root for and that game didn’t provide one, and as it turned out I certainly didn’t miss much. In contrast, just think of what might have occurred if we’d had a 4 team playoff between those two teams, Oregon, and either Florida or Kansas State. Surely Oregon would have given Alabama a little bit more of a fight in the title game…maybe.

 

 

I would be remiss if I did not address the huge letdown that was the 7-6 season for my hometown West Virginia Mountaineers. I hesitate to say the following but it is the honest truth. Before the season I told my Dad and I believe my nephew Zach that I thought the step up in competition from the Big East to the Big 12 would be a bigger deal for the Mountaineers than most seemed to be expecting and that I wouldn’t be surprised if they went 6-6. I kept that opinion on the down low because most folks in my orbit were caught up in the hype of a possible national championship run and a strong WV-Logo-and-Mountaineer2Heisman candidacy for QB Geno Smith. You may have noticed that the ‘Eers were not ranked in my pre-season Top 25, but other than that I just kind of kept my negative vibes to myself. Hindsight is 20/20 and I regret not shouting my prediction from the rooftops because I would have looked like a genius. I must admit that I was sincerely hoping I might be wrong and it looked like I could be after WVU began the season 5-0, including an impressive win at Texas. However, it is difficult to overcome a horrendous defense that ranks 117th in points allowed and makes every opponent’s pedestrian QB look like Johnny Unitas. Even after all that though I thought the Mountaineers would crush Syracuse in their bowl game for a variety of reasons, but I was way off base. Getting out of the Big East was surely a necessity, but in retrospect it might have behooved the powers-that-be to be a little more patient and wait for an eventual ACC invite, because it looks like it’s going to be a rough road for WVU in the Big 12.

 

 

The NFL coaching carousel is always entertaining. I think the KC Chiefs made a great hire in Andy Reid, who is a solid head coach who just needed a change of scenery. The firing of Lovie Smith by the Chicago Bears was mildly surprising, especially since the truth is that it doesn’t matter who the head coach is while headcase Jay Cutler is the QB. Cutler simply does not have what it takes to lead an NFL team to greatness. Lovie will land on his feet just like Reid did, and whoever hires him will instantly become better.

 

 

Speaking of the Chiefs…

They are “on the clock” with the first pick in April’s NFL Draft and all the “experts” seem to think they TCU v West Virginiajust won’t be able to pass up WV Mountaineer QB Geno Smith. As a lifelong Mountaineer fan I am here to give a friendly warning to the Chiefs…run. Trade the pick, choose a can’t miss offensive lineman, or roll the dice on USC signal caller Matt Barkley. Geno has bust written all over him. He reminds me a little bit of Akili Smith, who wowed scouts during his senior year at Oregon in 1998 with 3700 yards passing & 32 TDs, was taken 3rd overall in the 1999 draft by the Cincinnati Bengals (ahead of guys like Edgerrin James, Champ Bailey, & Ricky Williams), then proceeded to only throw for 2200 yards & 5 touchdowns over the course of the next four years. Yes most of the disappointment of this past WVU season can be laid at the feet of the Mountaineer’s porous defense, but Geno came up small in a lot of games and in some important moments. I have a strong suspicion that he’ll be a huge regret to any team that picks him very high in the draft.

 

 

I chose only half of the NFL’s playoff field correctly in my season preview last fall, but we still may be on track for my predicted Super Bowl matchup of Green Bay vs. New England, although at this point I would actually much prefer a Denver vs. Seattle game.

 

 

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