Notre Dame

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 13

It’s Rivalry Week in college football, and it is Thanksgiving. Warm wishes to The Manoverse for a delightful holiday filled with food, football, family, flicks, & fun. I’m not gonna lie…last week was brutal. I (2-3) edged out Zach (1-4), but that’s really not saying a whole lot. If the Texans would’ve covered a measly three point spread and if the Chiefs were capable of playing a shred of defense things would have turned out differently, but those things didn’t happen. I scored 133 points in my dynasty league and still lost, and my opponent didn’t even have the best week in the league because another team broke a six year old all-time single game scoring record. Needless to say I’m a bit perturbed with the NFL at the moment, but fortunately the timing is perfect. In-state & regional rivalries are the bedrock on which college football is built, but conference realignment in recent years has had a negative effect on such traditions. It seems like an effort is being made to remedy that, which makes me happy. I had a hard time choosing which games to focus on, so what the hell…we’re just going to pick most of them. I’m pretty sure we’ve never picked this many games in one week, but with both of us below .500 on the season this feels like a great opportunity to dig ourselves out of the hole (or sink inescapably deeper into the abyss).

My Season: 32-37

Z’s Season: 27-42

Mississippi State (-11) at Ole Miss

Why can only one of these teams be good in any one season?? This year it is the 7-4 Bulldogs that look solid, while the 5-6 Rebels are fighting for bowl eligibility. Ole Miss has the home field and something to play for so I’m going with the upset. Zach believes these are two mediocre teams with potential. He’s uncomfortable with the points so he’s picking the underdogs to atleast cover.

My Pick: Ole Miss

Z’s Pick: Ole Miss

BYU at Utah (-12)

The 6-5 Cougars are a perplexing program. I’m not sure why a conference like The Big 12 or Mountain West hasn’t scooped them up yet. Being independent doesn’t seem to be working out well. And I’m never sure what to expect from year to year. Conversely, things seem to be going just fine for the 8-3 Utes, who have already secured a spot in the Pac 12 title game. Is this a trap game?? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way the 12 points is too much. Zach gives props to BYU for beating Wisconsin earlier in the season, but he likes the home team in this one.

My Pick: BYU

Z’s Pick: Utah

Georgia Tech at Georgia (-17)

Could the Bulldogs be looking ahead to their SEC Championship clash against Alabama?? The Yellow Jackets are 7-4 and have only a bowl game to look forward to, but knocking their in-state rivalry out of playoff contention would be the cherry on top of a solid season. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but the points are just way too much. Zach thinks Tech’s triple option could cause issues for Georgia’s defense, but with a playoff berth possibly on the line he is going out on a limb and picking the favorites to cover the sizeable spread.

My Pick: Georgia Tech

Z’s Pick: Georgia

Nebraska at Iowa (-9.5)

The Cornhuskers are a dreadful 4-7, but have shown signs of life by winning 4 out of their last 5 games. Conversely, the Hawkeyes are 7-4 but have lost 3 of 4. These are two teams heading in the opposite direction, and I smell an upset (or atleast a close game). Zach is predicting a low-scoring defensive battle and thinks Nebraska has the hot hand.

My Pick: Nebraska

Z’s Pick: Nebraska

Virginia (-4.5) at Virginia Tech

Okay…here’s the deal. Tech comes into this game 4-6, and they had a game against East Carolina cancelled back in September due to Hurricane Florence. If the Hokies win this game they are one victory shy of bowl eligibility. A deal is in place where Tech would play a game against my alma mater the Marshall Thundering Herd, who also had a game at South Carolina cancelled because of the same hurricane. That game will only take place if the Hokies win here, which won’t be an easy task against the 7-4 Cavaliers. Traditionally Tech has a significant home field advantage, and I’m hoping that is the case once again. Conversely, Zach believes the Cavs will get the easy victory.

My Pick: Virginia Tech

Z’s Pick: Virginia

Oregon (-17) at Oregon State

They call this game The Civil War. It is one of the oldest rivalries in college football, having first been played 124 years ago. The two campuses are less that fifty miles apart, so I don’t think there is any true home field advantage. The Ducks come into the game 7-4, having had a real roller coaster season. The Beavers are 2-9, so their coaster seems to be broken. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but I’m picking the favorites to win easily. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Oregon

Z’s Pick: Oregon

Central Florida (-14) at South Florida

Way back when I did my pre-season rankings I placed the Bulls 12^th and had the Knights unranked. I said that “UCF is still getting much of the love from talking heads this pre-season, but I’m not buying it”, while posing the question “can USF steal the spotlight in 2018?”. Well, so far that thought process hasn’t quite come to fruition. South Florida is 7-4, while Central Florida remains undefeated and is a Top 10 team. Both teams have something to play for…pride for South, and remaining unbeaten for Central. The two campuses are little more than an hour apart, so the home field probably isn’t that big of a deal. I can’t pull the trigger on an upset, but I think the Bulls will keep it closer than two TDs. Zach likes UCF’s offense to carry them to an easy win.

My Pick: South Florida

Z’s Pick: Central Florida

Washington at Washington State (-2.5)

They call this The Apple Cup because Washington is the nation’s leading producer of…well, I’m sure you can guess. The Huskies were getting all the pre-season love, but at 8-3 have fallen short of expectations. Conversely, the Cougars are still in the playoff conversation, but they need a few dominoes to fall in front of them. The winner of this game will play Utah for the Pac 12 title, and I’m smelling an upset for the underdogs. Zach is predicting a really close game…possibly even overtime…to be won by the home team.

My Pick: Washington

Z’s Pick: Washington St.

Florida (-6) at Florida State

Wow…who could have predicted that this game would be a mere afterthought on a weekend full of other battles of much more interest & importance?? I truly thought the Seminoles would bounce back after a rough 2017 campaign, but at 5-6 they need a win to even become bowl eligible. The 8-3 Gators certainly aren’t terrible, but have been forgotten amidst all the love for Alabama & Georgia and even love for Kentucky & LSU. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the upset since Florida St. will be looking to extend their streak of 36 consecutive bowl game appearances. Zach likes the Gators’ defense to get the job done.

My Pick: Florida State

Z’s Pick: Florida

LSU (-3) at Texas A&M

Do I believe that two loss LSU should be a Top 10 team?? No. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t a dangerous opponent for anyone who goes up against them. At 7-4 A&M is just about what we thought they’d be…tons of potential with good things ahead, but not quite there yet. I can’t overlook the home field in this one and think the Aggies can pull off a mild surprise. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Texas A&M

Z’s Pick: Texas A&M

Kentucky (-17) at Louisville

It seems odd to be talking about this matchup on the football field instead of the basketball court, but that’s where we are. The Wildcats have had a really nice season and will land in a fun bowl location. Conversely, the 2-9 Cardinals have already fired their coach and look like they need to move to the AAC or C-USA because the ACC is just too good for them. I have no doubt that Kentucky will win, but the points concern me just a bit. I suppose it’s one of those “go big or go home” moments, right?? According to Zach Louisville is “garbage” and he likes Kentucky’s ground game to win big.

My Pick: Kentucky

Z’s Pick: Kentucky

Utah State at Boise State (-2.5)

The winner of this game will play Fresno St. in the Mountain West title game. The Bulldogs have the home field and a solid track record of winning big games, so I believe they’ll get the job done. Zach likes Utah St. in the trenches, but doesn’t believe it’s enough for them to overcome the home field advantage.

My Pick: Boise St.

Z’s Pick: Boise St.

Notre Dame (-10.5) at USC

So this is it. The Trojans are Notre Dame’s final hurdle to the playoff. Normally that would not only be intriguing, but it’d make this the biggest game of the weekend. However, while the undefeated Irish have looked unstoppable 5-6 Southern Cal has not. Much like Florida State, USC is a traditional power now just battling for bowl eligibility. Can they get the job done and pull off a huge upset?? I wish…but probably not. Zach thinks USC will make a coaching change after the season, and as much as he’d like to see the upset he doesn’t believe it’ll happen.

My Pick: Notre Dame

Z’s Pick: Notre Dame

Arizona State (-2) at Arizona

Herm Edwards has the Sun Devils at 6-5 and heading in the right direction. The arrow is pointing up for Kevin Sumlin’s Wildcats as well, despite a roller coaster season. The Wildcats have the home field and need a victory to become bowl eligible, so that’s the pick for me. Zach doesn’t like Arizona’s defense (or lack thereof), so he is going with the favorites.

My Pick: Arizona

Z’s Pick: Arizona St.

South Carolina at Clemson (-26)

The Gamecocks aren’t winning this game. Clemson has a playoff berth on the line and they’re not going to let their in-state rival steal that away. But what about the points?? That’s an awfully big spread. Might Clemson rest some players and hold something back for the ACC title game?? Nahhhhh. They’ll win by atleast four touchdowns. Zach is going in the other direction, believing the Tigers will take their foot off the gas just enough for the Gamecocks to cover.

My Pick: Clemson

Z’s Pick: South Carolina

Auburn at Alabama (-24.5)

The Iron Bowl is always one of the biggest games on the calendar, and this year is no exception. I think Alabama is destined for the playoff win or lose, and they could even drop this game and the SEC title game and still be gifted a playoff berth. Auburn is 7-4 and has been underwhelming this year, but I expect them to play their best game against their archrival. I don’t believe the Tigers have a snowball’s chance in California of winning the game, but they’ll probably keep it closer than the oddsmakers think. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Auburn

Z’s Pick: Auburn

Michigan (-4.5) at Ohio State

This is it. This is the biggest game of the holiday weekend. For the first time in awhile the Wolverines are actually favored, despite playing at The Horseshoe in Columbus. The winner will face Northwestern in the Big Ten title game, but Michigan has much bigger fish to fry because a playoff berth awaits. However, unlike ‘Bama, they cannot afford to stumble. The Buckeyes have to have a lot of things go their way to make it to the playoff, which is unlikely. But I have to believe that screwing their hated rival out of a chance to play for the National Championship would be a fantastic consolation prize. Because a) I love playoff chaos, b) I know Zach will pick Michigan, & c) I don’t think the home field can be overlooked, I am picking the upset. As predicted Zach is picking the Wolverines to give Ohio St. an epic beatdown.

My Pick: Ohio St.

Z’s Pick: Michigan

Sports Films: The 25 Best (IMHO) Part 2

And we’re back!! I hope you enjoyed Part 1, which I assume you did or you wouldn’t be back. Logic rules. Anyway, the middle part of our batting order contains a wide variety, including more hilarious Saturday Night Live alumni, some movies older than my Dad, & one or two entries that you won’t be startled to see but may be somewhat surprised to see so soon. Remember, these are my own opinions and I am fully aware that others might view things differently. Please leave me some comments about what sports movies you like or don’t like, and if you haven’t yet been Manotized and become a citizen of The Manoverse you’re just a click away from one of the best decisions you’ll make all day.

20 Slapshot / Rocky II
Let me say two things. First, hockey is probably my least favorite of the major sports (which, since I live in America, doesn’t include soccer). Secondly, I’m just a skosh too young to see what the big deal is about Paul Newman. Several of his most notable films were made either before I was born or when I was an infant, and a lot of them seem to be westerns, which just aren’t my thing. That being said, I have enjoyed a few Newman performances, chief among them this outing as a veteran player-coach for a minor league hockey team on the verge of going belly-up. The team’s braintrust decides to focus on keeping the club financially viable by making it an entertaining sideshow rather than a competitive entity. Hilarity ensues, including the three Hanson Brothers, man-children with a hysterical penchant for thuggery & rulebreaking. Rocky II is the inevitable sequel to the original. Hindsight proves that this is a series that peaked in its initial outing and had, for the most part, diminishing returns thereafter. However, II isn’t too far gone from the quality if its predecessor, and (spoiler alert) it’s the one where The Italian Stallion finally wins the title so I cannot exclude it from this particular honor roll.

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19 Raging Bull / Caddyshack
One normally wouldn’t think of this pair of films together, but I do for a simple reason. Both films would likely be rated far higher on most any other list they’d be on. Caddyshack…the classic 1980 story of The Haves vs. The Have Nots at a snooty country club…is consistently ranked as one of the funniest movies of all time. Raging Bull…a biopic of 1940’s pugilist Jake LaMotta that was also in theaters in 1980…is generally considered not only one of the greatest sports films but among the finest movies of any genre. The pedigrees for both are impressive. Caddyshack was directed by Harold Ramis and stars Chevy Chase, Bill Murray, Rodney Dangerfield, & Ted Knight. Raging Bull was directed by Martin Scorsese and stars Robert DeNiro (who won the Academy Award for Best Actor) and Joe Pesci in one of his earliest roles. DeNiro, much like Pacino, makes anything he is in awesome. I think the timing was just a bit off in relation to my enjoyment of these particular movies. They aren’t the kind of stories that an 8 year old kid is going to watch on the big screen, and by the time I saw them and began to understand their greatness I had developed my own tastes and had a bunch of other films that I preferred. Caddyshack is more in my wheelhouse since I like comedy, while Raging Bull just can’t compare, in my humble opinion, to another boxing film that we’ll discuss eventually.

18 The Waterboy / Talladega Nights
It will probably surprise many that Adam Sandler has a couple of entries in this little countdown. When one thinks about sport movies it is unlikely that Sandler would automatically come to mind. However, a sub-genre that I am especially fond of is the sports comedy. I like comedy and I love sports so I suppose it makes sense. The Waterboy is vintage Sandler back when he was at the pinnacle of his career nearly two decades ago. It tells the story of a dimwitted country bumpkin from Louisiana’s bayou who goes from abused waterboy to college football star thanks to classic Sandler rage. The supporting cast is terrific, with Henry Winkler (aka Fonzie) as a mild mannered coach and Academy Award winner Kathy Bates as an overprotective mother standing out above the rest. As with many of Sandler’s popular films critics hated The Waterboy while real people continue to gleefully watch it over & over again. Much like Sandler, fellow SNL alum Will Ferrell is a love him or hate him kind of actor. His films aren’t artistic masterpieces that get four stars from stuffed shirts, but Joe Sixpack tends to enjoy them. In Talladega Nights he teams with the vastly underrated John C. Reilly to form an odd NASCAR racing duo. Ricky Bobby is the kind of smug simpleton role that Ferrell has perfected, and the writing is pretty sharp for an alleged “dumb” comedy. There’s plenty of on track action and a clichéd climactic race. Both of these films are just a lot of silly fun, and I see nothing wrong with that.

17 Fever Pitch / Dodgeball
Speaking of silly fun & SNL alums…
Fever Pitch is actually based on a novel written by Nick Hornby, the same British author who penned High Fidelity and About a Boy, both of which were adapted into films as well. This particular story was originally about soccer and I believe a more faithful movie was made in 1997. However, this is America and we couldn’t care less about soccer, so the script was reworked into a tale about baseball for this 2005 effort starring Jimmy Fallon & Drew Barrymore. There are a few interesting things about Fever Pitch. First of all, it leans heavily toward rom-com territory so some may not really consider it a sports film. In my humble opinion though there’s enough sports involved for it to make the cut. Secondly, the filming happened to take place during the miraculous season when the Boston Red Sox broke the infamous Curse of the Bambino, which necessitated a change to the movie’s intended ending. And finally, this is a story (aside from the romantic stuff) about a fan. A hardcore fan. An obsessed fan. A fan who eats, drinks, sleeps, & breathes baseball and lives & dies with his team’s every win or loss. We can all see just a little bit of ourselves in him. Fallon & Barrymore are a charming duo and it’s a shame they never made any more movies together. Dodgeball is kind of unusual in that it doesn’t feature an actual sport but instead focuses on a game most of us played as children. However, it utilizes the sports movie playbook all the way. I’m a Vince Vaughn fan even though he pretty much plays the same kind of affable slacker in every movie he makes. I suppose if it ain’t broke don’t fix it, right?? This is another silly comedy that’s not going to change lives or add anything meaningful to intelligent conversation, but if you’re chillin’ out and looking for a delightful way to waste a couple of hours it’ll do the trick just fine.

16 Pride of the Yankees / Knute Rockne: All-American
Another true story: When I was in college I saw these two entries during a class I took about sports films. Yes that was actually a thing. I can’t remember if I got an A, but one would hope so because if a person can’t score an easy A in that class what hope do they have dealing with legitimate scholastic material?? At any rate, these movies were both released in the early 1940’s within a couple years of one another. Pride is the story of New York Yankees legend Lou Gehrig and chronicles his rise from a baseball player at Columbia University all the way thru his legendary Iron Man streak with the Bronx Bombers, culminating in his untimely demise from the illness that now bears his name. We also get a glimpse at Gehrig’s family life, especially the dynamic between his overprotective mother and the lovely young lady that becomes his bride. It is kind of an outdated, corny movie and prime material for a remake…if anyone under the age of 40 knew who Lou Gehrig was, Cal Ripken, Jr. hadn’t broken Gehrig’s Iron Man record a couple of decades ago, & there was an actor on the planet who could portray Gehrig as impressively as Gary Cooper. Rockne was the football coach for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish from 1918 to 1930, winning four national championships in five undefeated seasons (I know that makes no sense but if you are curious feel free to do some research) before being tragically killed in a plane crash. To this day he still has the highest winning percentage of any Division 1A football coach in history. All-American tells Rockne’s story, although these days it is probably more notable for the appearance of future President Ronald Reagan as The Gipper, complete with a legendary speech that atleast 75% of hardcore football fans can recite from memory.

15 Rudy
I really try not to let my utter contempt for Notre Dame bias any opinions about ancillary matters and this certainly would qualify, but, objectively speaking, Rudy is a really solid movie. Based on the true story of Daniel Ruettiger, a young Illinois man who grew up in the 1950’s dreaming of playing football for the Fighting Irish, Rudy is a classic underdog story…the foundation of sports cinema. You see, Daniel had everything going against him. His family was poor. He was dyslexic & had below average grades. And…oh, by the way…he was 5ft.6 and 170lbs. soaking wet. That’s hardly the kind of “athlete” one of the nation’s elite football programs typically recruits. But Ruettiger was persistent, and after a couple of years in the Navy, a couple of years working at the local power plant with his father & brother, and then getting his academics up to par at a less stringent institution of higher learning, he finally enrolled at Notre Dame at the age of 26 and walked on to the football team. Now does that mean that he became a superstar athlete?? Of course not. That’s not what Rudy is about. Vince Lombardi may have said that “winning is the only thing”, but different people define victory in a variety of ways. This film is notable as well for being amongst the earliest work of both Vince Vaughn & Jon Favreau.

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14 Eight Men Out
Baseball fans of all ages should be atleast somewhat familiar with the 1919 Black Sox scandal. This movie is based on a 1963 book written about that situation. Both the book & the film are quite good. The cast isn’t all that memorable with the exception of John Cusack & Charlie Sheen, who were both up & coming performers when the movie was made in the late 80’s, but the performances are all solid. The players who were eventually banned forever from baseball aren’t given a free pass for their errors in judgment, but the prevailing viewpoint is that they were far from villains, that there were understandable circumstances that led to poor decisions. I first saw Eight Men Out many years ago and came away believing that maybe…just maybe…the punishment was a bit too harsh, but then again I’m compassionate like that. Your mileage may vary.

13 61
This project is mostly about feature films, but I do feel compelled to include an exception. 61 is a 2001 HBO movie about the competition to best Babe Ruth’s single season home run record, one that had been setting the pace since 1927. The number 61 has a double meaning. First, Ruth’s record was 60 homers in a season so 61 would break the record. Also, the action in this film takes place during the 1961 MLB season. The focus is on two men…New York Yankees outfielders Mickey Mantle & Roger Maris, and their contrasting lifestyles & demeanors. By 1961 Mantle was a living legend, another in a long line of Yankee icons, whose drinking & hard partying ways were well documented. Conversely, Maris was a quiet & old-fashioned guy from North Dakota who felt and was often treated like an outsider in The Bronx. Even though we know how this home run race turned out the story is still compelling and the examination of the personalities & relationships is fascinating. It is a well-written script and the performances are terrific. The film was directed by lifelong Yankees fan Billy Crystal, who really should direct more often. In my heart & mind Maris, an honest & humble man, is still baseball’s single season home run king.

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12 Seabiscuit
Hard tack is a type of long lasting cracker often consumed by sailors & soldiers. Hard Tack was the name of a race horse in the 1930’s. Hard Tack fathered a race horse named Seabiscuit. Sea biscuit is an alternative term for the aforementioned cracker. Interesting. Seabiscuit (the movie) is based on a really good book about that young racehorse, who won a lot of races in the late 30’s. Like so many great sports films it’s an underdog story. In this case the horse was an underdog, but so was its owner, trainer, & jockey. There’s a lot of inspirational relationship stuff here, but oddly enough there’s no romance, atleast not the kind we usually see. It’s a well-written story with many of the characteristic sports movie brush strokes, but Seabiscuit is better than average. We don’t pay as much attention to horse racing in America as we once did, for various reasons, but it is still the sport of kings and this movie will remind you of that.

11 Jerry Maguire
It had me at hello. It completes me. But is it a sports film?? Ehhh…I suppose, although it’s really more of a romantic dramedy, which is why I am putting it this far down in the countdown. It does tell a story from the perspective of an agent, which is unique. We get an interesting peek inside the cutthroat business side of sports, including some fun cameos from former Eagles frontman Glenn Frey as a team owner, real life agent Leigh Steinberg, ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr., and a plethora of former NFL players and other athletes. And we even see some on-the-field drama courtesy of Rod “Show Me the Money” Tidwell, a role that won Cuba Gooding Jr. an Academy Award.

That’s it for now. Stay tuned for the exciting conclusion…coming soon!!

2014 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

The time has finally come!! After decades of mythical national champions and BCS (emphasis on the BS) silliness college football finally gets a playoff. Is the system perfect?? I don’t know…probably not. But I will reserve judgment until I see exactly how it works out. One thing we know for sure…there is no longer a race to be #1 or even the runner-up. Four teams will earn an opportunity to be in the playoff mix, so as long as a team is amongst those final four they’ll get their shot. Any “controversy” will be a debate as to which team deserves that 4th spot, and I am sure there will be a few teams staking a claim. But at the end of the day my vibe is that the argument will be rather muted & somewhat trivial and that fans will be mostly satisfied with the outcome.

1 Florida State
Last Season: 14-0
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Oklahoma St., 9/20 vs. Clemson, 10/18 vs. Notre Dame
Defending national champions. Returning Heisman winning quarterback. Former wrestling champion Ric Flair used to say “To be the man you have to beat the man” and until a team comes along and knocks the Seminoles off their perch I think they have to be given this top spot. Two out-of-conference games against Oklahoma St. & Notre Dame as well as the always entertaining ACC clash against Clemson are all in Tallahassee. I’d be stunned if this team isn’t in that final four.

2 Oregon
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 9/6 vs. Michigan St., 10/11 at UCLA, 11/1 vs. Stanford
Quarterback Marcus Mariotta likely could have been a first round pick in the NFL Draft but chose to return to Eugene for a shot at the national title and a run at the Heisman Trophy. I think he has a strong chance to snag both. Head coach Mark Helfrich didn’t miss a beat after taking the helm last season when Chip Kelly moved on to the Philadelphia Eagles. The PAC 12 is one of the toughest conferences in the land, but I think we’ll see the Ducks overcome both UCLA and Stanford to once again be in the national championship conversation.

3 Alabama
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 11/8 at LSU, 11/29 vs. Auburn
Let’s be clear…the inaugural 4 team playoff will, come hell or high water, include the Crimson Tide. The major players in the SEC are probably going to spend the season beating up on each other, but that’ll just endear them all to the lapdog media even more. ‘Bama must replace quarterback AJ McCarron who is now patiently awaiting the inevitable implosion of fellow signal caller Andy Dalton as a Cincinnati Bengal. I don’t think it matters who ends up with the job for the Tide. Their calling card is a tenacious defense and a virtually unstoppable running game.

4 South Carolina
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 8/28 vs. Texas A&M, 9/13 vs. Georgia, 10/25 at Auburn, 11/29 at Clemson
Do not be surprised if the powers-that-be contort themselves into a pretzel trying to get two SEC teams into the playoff. How does that happen?? Simple. First of all, the Gamecocks don’t play Alabama during the regular season. It is entirely conceivable that both teams go into the SEC title game undefeated. Maybe ‘Bama is #1 and South Carolina is a Top 10 team. South Carolina wins a close game and rightfully ascends into the top 4. The collective hard-on the masses have for Alabama means they tumble…but not much. It’s possible. You heard it here first.

5 UCLA
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 10/11 vs. Oregon, 11/22 vs. USC, 11/28 vs. Stanford
I really like the PAC 12, but in the scenario described above it could be their runner-up that gets left out in the cold. Let’s imagine this. Oregon beats the Bruins on October 11th and goes undefeated. UCLA overcomes the loss and doesn’t lose the rest of the regular season. The two meet again in the conference title game and the Ducks prevail in an epic contest. There is no way that UCLA beats out the SEC runner-up to get into the playoff.

6 Oklahoma
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 11/8 vs. Baylor, 12/6 vs. Oklahoma St.
The Big 12 only has ten teams and no championship game. That really hurts their chances of having a playoff team. It doesn’t help that the conference is relatively weak. Entertaining?? Sure. But the Sooners defeating the likes of TCU, Iowa St., West Virginia, & Kansas by three or more touchdowns won’t impress anybody. It is more than possible that Oklahoma could run the table and still not even be in the playoff discussion. If they drop a game to Baylor or in-state rival Oklahoma St. then they’re toast.

7 Wisconsin
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 8/30 vs. LSU, 11/15 vs. Nebraska
Other pundits may be picking a different Big Ten (which now has 14 teams) team to prevail, but I think the Badgers will pound their way to the conference championship behind 6ft.1 207lb. junior running back Melvin Gordon. Whether or not they win their season opening out-of-conference matchup with the LSU Tigers is irrelevant, although that game being in Madison certainly helps. A mid-November clash with Nebraska is also at home and will likely decide who represents the division in the conference title game.

8 Baylor
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 11/8 at Oklahoma
Senior quarterback Bryce Petty returns to lead what was a prolific and dominating offense in 2013. The Bears have the same issue as any other Big 12 contender in that they are unlikely to receive as much respect on a national scale as teams from the SEC or PAC 12. An out-of-conference schedule that includes SMU, Northwestern St., & Buffalo isn’t going to help. Basically the whole season comes down to an early November clash with the Sooners in Norman. The winner of that game probably plays in the Cotton Bowl on New Year’s Day. The loser will end up in something depressing like the Advocare Texas Bowl.

9 Boise State
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 8/28 vs. Ole Miss, 10/24 vs. BYU
They’re baaaccckkk. The Broncos have long been college football’s Little Engine That Could. They have consistently been a double digit win team over the past 15 years. After a lot of rumors and flirting with other gigs in the past decade former head coach Chris Petersen moved on to Washington and has been replaced in Boise by Bryan Harsin, a former Broncos offensive coordinator who also spent some time coaching under Mack Brown at Texas. After going 8-5 in 2013 no one is really talking about Boise St., which will make it all the sweeter when they win 10 or 11 games. Their season opener is an out-of-conference contest against an Ole Miss team that seems to be getting much love this pre-season despite the fact that they play a murderous SEC schedule. I’m betting people will remember Boise St. is still around afterward.

10 Michigan State
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 9/6 at Oregon, 10/4 vs. Nebraska, 11/8 vs. Ohio St.
The Spartans all too often get lost in the Big Ten (which has 14 teams) shuffle. But if you look at their success over the past few seasons they have been remarkably consistent, winning 11+ games three out of the past four years. This is another team that wins with good old-fashioned smashmouth football and a tough defense. Even if they lose 2 out of 3 key games and finish 10-2 they could have a legitimate opportunity to be in the conference title mix.

11 Ohio State
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 11/8 at Michigan St.
Losing QB Braxton Miller for the season virtually eliminates the Buckeyes from the championship picture. They have an unimpressive & weak schedule with neither Nebraska nor Wisconsin anywhere in sight. All it will take is a loss to Michigan St. to end the dream. And let’s be honest…if they were to somehow make it to the playoff they’d get beaten like a government mule.

12 Nebraska
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 10/4 at Michigan St., 11/15 at Wisconsin
I fully expect a logjam at the top of the Big Ten (which has 14 teams). There will probably be 3 or 4 teams finishing somewhere around the 9-3/10-2 mark. The Cornhuskers’ out-of-conference schedule, which includes Miami, FL & Fresno St., isn’t bad. If they can split their two key games they will almost certainly be a solid Top 25 team.

13 Marshall
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: all of them and none of them
Marshall is my alma mater. I know that expectations are high in my old stomping grounds in Huntington, WV. Here is what I expect. I expect an undefeated season. I expect QB Rakeem Cato to be invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony though he doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in Arizona of actually winning. I expect that undefeated season to mean diddly squat as far as the national playoff. And I expect that if…if…the Herd screws the pooch in any game…including a C-USA championship game…they will tumble very quickly from the rankings.

14 Iowa
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 11/22 vs. Wisconsin, 11/28 vs. Nebraska
The Hawkeyes are another team that can always be dangerous even in a down year. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is one of those names that always gets mentioned for “better” jobs, whether in the NFL or elsewhere in college. At age 59 and going into his 16th year at the helm in Iowa City it looks less & less likely that he will ever actually make the jump and will instead be one of those lifers like Bobby Bowden or Frank Beamer that sticks around for three decades. Having said that, a close examination of Iowa’s “success” under Ferentz shows that they’ve only had four double digit win seasons during his tenure. If they can split the two key games above…both of which are at home…they could add another in 2014.

15 Bowling Green
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: I have no idea
Someone’s got to win the MAC, right?? Actually I like watching MAC football. Their games are usually quite entertaining. The problem is that they are all kind of just random teams from Ohio (and a couple of other midwestern states). It reminds me of eating at McDonald’s…you know there are better options available and you aren’t quite sure exactly what you’re consuming, but in the moment it is sort of tasty and mostly satisfying. At any rate, the Falcons won the conference title game in 2013, upsetting a Northern Illinois team that was ranked in the Top 20. They seem to be getting some “others receiving votes” love in other polls, and since the entire Top 25 can’t be SEC, PAC 12, & Big Ten (which has 14 teams) I’ll give this team a fighting chance to win 10 or 11 games (they’ll get mauled at Wisconsin), win the conference, and earn this spot.

16 LSU
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Wisconsin, 10/4 at Auburn, 11/8 vs. Alabama, 11/27 at Texas A&M
The Bayou Bengals seem to be one of those teams that just reload and have tremendous success year after year. However, I am a bit nervous about their chances in 2014. First of all they have to replace a quarterback, running back, & wide receiver (as well as about a half dozen other players) that were all taken in the NFL Draft. Secondly their out-of-conference schedule includes the season opener…a neutral site clash against Wisconsin. And of course the biggest issue…they play in the SEC. I realize that the wet dream of the powers-that-be is probably an all-SEC four team playoff for the national title, but that ain’t gonna happen. Someone will be on the outside looking in. If LSU can overcome all of that and still have a Top 20 team it will be a remarkable feat.

17 Stanford
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/6 vs. USC, 10/4 at Notre Dame, 11/1 at Oregon, 11/28 at UCLA
Stanford has the same issue as LSU. They play in a tough conference where the law of averages dictates that not everybody can be a Top 10 national championship contender. The schedule is brutal. If this team can somehow get to 9 wins they will deserve a solid ranking.

18 Navy
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Ohio St., 11/1 vs. Notre Dame
Call me crazy, but I think the Midshipmen have a puncher’s chance in their season opening neutral site game against Ohio St. Okay okay…I’m not going to rush to Vegas or Atlantic City and actually put money on that, but the rest of the season looks pretty decent. There is a November contest against Notre Dame that is also winnable. But even if Navy loses those two games they could still end up in this spot by going 10-2 and being very competitive (within two TDs) against the Buckeyes and Irish.

19 Oklahoma State
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Florida St., 11/22 at Baylor, 12/6 at Oklahoma
The Cowboys open their season at the Palace in Dallas against #1 Florida St. Ouch. If they pull the upset it’ll turn college football on its collective ear on the very first weekend of the season. However, even though that is unlikely, the truth is that the whole season comes down to the final two games against Baylor and Oklahoma. Split those two games and this ranking looks golden. But even if Oklahoma St. loses all three of their key games they can still get here by being very competitive in those games and beating their other nine opponents into oblivion.

20 Central Florida
Last Season: 12-1
Key Games: 8/30 at Penn St., 9/13 at Missouri
Quick…tell me what conference UCF plays in. Now tell me three other teams in that conference. Give up?? The American Athletic Conference is the very definition of mediocrity, comprised of refugees from C-USA and the old Big East that just didn’t have enough to offer for a more well-respected conference to invite them to play with the big boys. It is somewhat surprising that UCF finds itself in such a hot mess given that they are the 2nd largest university in the country. Let that sink in for a minute. UCF is bigger than Florida, Florida St., & Miami, FL…all of whom have had tremendous success on the gridiron. Will such success eventually occur for the Knights?? Maybe. Until that happens though they will be satisfied to win their conference and be a solid Top 20 team. I am a bit concerned that they must replace QB Blake Bortles who is now plying his trade in the NFL with the Jacksonville Jaguars. But at the end of the day I think this is a team that will overcome adversity, win 9 or 10 games, and secure another conference title.

21 Arizona
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 10/2 at Oregon, 10/11 vs. USC, 11/1 at UCLA,
There are a handful of other PAC 12 teams that get all the love, but don’t forget about the Wildcats. Head coach Rich Fraudriguez seems to be much more comfortable in Tucson than he ever was in Ann Arbor, MI. I think lower expectations and staying off the beaten path suits him well. If Arizona can pull off just one big upset and win 9 or 10 games they are a solid choice to sneak into the rankings.

22 Notre Dame
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 10/4 vs. Stanford, 10/18 at Florida St., 11/29 at USC
The Fighting Irish can’t cheat as much on the football field as they apparently do in the classroom because…well…television cameras. The question is can they recover from the loss of atleast 4 players (and who knows what other shoes may drop) and meet always lofty expectations?? I assume they’ll hang around and be good enough to be a solid 8/9 win bowl team. Brian Kelly is a good coach and QB Everett Golson returns from his 2013…hiatus…which means the offense should be decent. Pulling an upset in any one of the three key games would almost assure sneaking into the final rankings.

23 Virginia Tech
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/6 at Ohio St., 10/4 at North Carolina, 10/23 vs. Miami, FL
Florida St. will win the ACC. But who will win the other division and be chum for the Seminoles in the conference title game?? Most “experts” are picking North Carolina or Miami to fill that role. I’m playing a hunch and going against the grain. Head coach Frank Beamer has a ton of experience and his team plays in a relatively mediocre conference. I don’t think they’ll beat Ohio St., but that isn’t where the focus should be anyway. It’s a three horse race for the Coastal Division and it’ll all come down to October contests against the Tar Heels and Hurricanes.

24 Auburn
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 10/4 vs. LSU, 10/25 vs. South Carolina, 11/8 vs. Texas A&M, 11/15 at Georgia, 11/29 at Alabama
An old saying tells us that sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, and the Tigers were very very very lucky last season. Oh they were good too…but being lucky took them from going 9-3 and playing in the Cotton Bowl to going 12-1 and coming up short in the national championship. They won’t be as fortunate this season. I’m not concerned about players lost to the NFL. Teams like Auburn just reload, and QB Nick Marshall returns for his senior year as a viable Heisman candidate. But the schedule is ridiculously difficult and I don’t think this team will win more than a couple of the key games noted above.

25 Georgia
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Clemson, 9/13 at South Carolina
A 8/9 win season and a Top 25 ranking might not seem good enough for an upper echelon SEC team, but I say it’d be a pretty decent finish all things considered. The Bulldogs must replace QB Aaron Murray, but they still have junior RB Todd Gurley, a 6ft.1 232lb. brute with 4.2/40 speed. He’ll be a legitimate Heisman candidate, but the defense will have to step up and new signal caller Hutson Mason…a senior who has sat behind Murray for four years…will have to become comfortable really quickly. I won’t be a bit surprised if 4 or 5 SEC teams end the season ranked, but logic dictates that they all can’t finish in the Top 10.

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 5

Damn you Boise State!! The Broncos were the only thing standing between me & my first ever perfect week with these picks, but when they scored a touchdown with 7 minutes left in the 4^th quarter last Saturday I knew both Zach & I were doomed. Fresno St. had enough time to come back and win the game with 2 minutes remaining, but they weren’t able to cover the 3 points. Oh well…c’est la vie. I did win a head-to-head matchup in which I picked Stanford and Zach chose Arizona St., so that provided some measure of comfort. For the week I ended at 4-1 and Zach ended up 3-2, making our season look thusly:

Your Humble Potentate of Profundity = 11-9

Zach = 9-11

Now on to the task at hand. At this point the season is beginning to take shape. Most teams…both college & pro…have shown us just enough so that it’s becoming clear who is good and who’s going to have a tough road. Theoretically that should make these picks a bit easier, but I know from experience that that is a little too optimistic. At any rate, there are atleast 9 or 10 games that pique my interest this week so I had a tough time narrowing the choices to just five, but I am really making an effort to spread the love and not pick games involving the same teams all the time. Enjoy!!

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Florida (-13) at Kentucky

The Gators just lost their starting QB for the season to a broken leg and a key defensive tackle due to a torn ACL. Against better competition those losses might be a killer, but with this week’s opponent being the Wildcats I doubt if Florida has too much to be concerned about…except, for our purposes, covering the points. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Kentucky gives a spirited effort, meaning they lose the game but not by two touchdowns. Zach doesn’t think Florida’s personnel deficiencies will be a big deal and believes that Kentucky will only be competitive in the first quarter.

My Pick Kentucky

Z’s Pick Florida

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Oklahoma (-3.5) at Notre Dame

This might be one of the best games on the NCAA schedule thus far in 2013. The Irish come into the game 3-1 but I think many people might say they have been the more impressive team. The Sooners are 3-0 but struggled to beat my WV Mountaineers, a team that can’t seem to score a touchdown most of the time. I am shocked that the Irish aren’t favored. Zach thinks both of these teams are overrated but believes Oklahoma is the more overrated of the two.

My Pick Notre Dame

Z’s Pick Notre Dame

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Wisconsin at Ohio St. (-7)

I’m really looking forward to this one. Good old-fashioned smash mouth football with the occasional big play and lots of solid defense. The Badgers are 2-1 but really should be undefeated (remember the incompetent refs screwed them at Arizona St.). The Buckeyes are 4-0 but really haven’t played anybody. This game is in Columbus, which is a huge advantage. I picked Ohio St. #2 in my pre-season rankings, and if they continue winning that may just be where they end up. But my vibes are telling me that this is going to be a very close game. Ohio St. may or may not win, but if they do I think it’ll be by the slimmest of margins. Zach is a Michigan fan and thinks that Ohio State hasn’t played anybody yet (he’s right), but is willing to overlook the pain it causes him and pick the Buckeyes.

My Pick Wisconsin

Z’s Pick Ohio State

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Baltimore (-3.5) at Buffalo

The defending Super Bowl Champion Ravens are 2-1 but have clearly regressed since last season, although last week’s 30-9 demoliotion of the Houston Texans was impressive. Meanwhile, the Bills are an impressive 1-2…if there can be such a thing. Rookie quarterback EJ Manuel has been solid and will continue to get better. Buffalo could easily be 3-0 if a few balls had just bounced their way. I’m going against the grain one more time and picking the underdogs to finally put it all together. Zach thinks the Bills will keep the game close in the first half but eventually Baltimore will pull away for the victory.

My Pick Buffalo

Z’s Pick Baltimore

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Seattle (-3) at Houston

Not only did the Texans get beaten handily by Baltimore last week, but they really didn’t look that spectacular in their two wins. It took a 17 point 4^th quarter comeback to beat the San Diego Chargers and overtime to get past the Tennessee Titans. Conversely the Seahawks have barely broken a sweat in going 3-0. Houston will almost certainly put forth their best effort of the season, but I just don’t think it’ll be good enough. Zach concurs.

My Pick Seattle

Z’s Pick Seattle

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Blair Kerkhoff’s around the nation in college football (kansascity.com)
Dirty Dozen: Crystal Ball Run staff picks for Week 5 (bloguin.com)
NFL Draft stock report: Riding high with Zach Mettenberger (sbnation.com)
NCAAF: Five to Watch Week 5 (thefarmclub.net)
CFB Week 5 Game Predictions (sportsreportblogdotcom.wordpress.com)
2013 NCAA Football Week 5: Picks and Predictions (sidelinemob.com)
College Football Picks for Week 5 (stilesonsports.wordpress.com)

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 13

Why is it that baseball, which I like but not THAT much, and basketball, which is okay but not really special, both have seasons that seem to drag on for eons, while football, which I adore, is seemingly over in the blink of an eye?? Don’t worry fellow fans…we haven’t reached the end of the road just yet, but on the collegiate level the conference title games are here and potential bowl matchups are already being pondered. In the NFL crunch time is fast approaching, with some teams already facing must win scenarios to remain in the playoff conversation. Here at The Manofesto your humble Potentate of Profundity has had two straight 4-3 weeks, which brings my overall record up to 36-53-1. I’d have to have a stunningly strong finish to get to .500, but one never knows, right?? I think we’ll go with a strictly college lineup this week since it’s the last hurrah for them and we’re going to be restricted to just the NFL going forward.

Louisville at Rutgers (-3)

The Big East doesn’t have a title game. Hell, they barely have a conference. At any rate, this game will serve as a de facto championship contest, as the winner will get the automatic BCS berth, likely to face the ACC champion in The Orange Bowl. Just for kicks…and because I picked them to finish 20^th in my pre-season Top 25…I’ll pick the upset here and go with Louisville.

Boise St. (-8.5) at Nevada

Ahhh…Boise St…remember them?? After being “BCS Busters” the past few years they have largely been forgotten about in 2012 despite having a stellar 9-2 record. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack have compiled a solid yet unimpressive 7-4 season. I don’t think this’ll be much of a game, and it will certainly get lost in the shuffle amidst all the conference championship games on the schedule. The good news for both of these teams is that they will be going bowling…Nevada has already accepted a bid to the December 15^th New Mexico Bowl, while the Broncos might be heading to Vegas a week later. As for this game, Boise is the pick.

Central Florida at Tulsa

This contest is all even according to the folks in Vegas, and it is the Conference USA championship game, which means it is slightly less important than the Big East game and in a tight race with explosive diarrhea & anything starring a Wayans brother on the interest scale. That being said, I did pick the 9-3 Knights to finish 16^th in my pre-season poll, so I suppose I shall stick with that and pick Central Florida to get the win.

UCLA at Stanford (-9)

Didn’t these two teams just play each other?? Yes…yes they did. Stanford smoked the Bruins 35-17 just a few days ago in Pasadena, and now this game will determine who will get to return to Pasadena in January to represent the Pac 12 in The Rose Bowl. This time the two combatants meet on Stanford’s home turf in Palo Alto. Of course it isn’t as if Bruin fans can’t take a short plane ride to see the game, although the 400 mile jaunt may be a bit of a trek in a car. Anyway, I see no reason to believe that the result will be any different this time, especially with a trip to the beloved Granddaddy of All Bowl Games on the line. Stanford should win by a comfortable margin.

Alabama (-7.5) vs. Georgia

Not only is this the vaunted SEC title game, but the victor is assured a spot in the national championship to face Notre Dame. Of course every football fan in the country, and especially all the media types & TV suits at ESPN are already having nocturnal emissions in anticipation of a ‘Bama-ND matchup, but the Tide must get by the Bulldogs first. I must admit that I left the Bulldogs out of my pre-season poll because I figured that someone in the SEC would have to get squeezed out. I incorrectly chose Tennessee & Arkansas to have good seasons, which of course they did not. Instead it is Georgia who stands in the way of the greatest game in the history of any sport with a ball (if you believe the talking heads). Interestingly enough this is…technically…a neutral site game being played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. I have a feeling this could end up being a really fun contest. I will stop short of picking an outright upset, but I do sincerely believe that if Alabama wins it will not be by more than a touchdown, so Georgia is the pick.

Texas at Kansas St. (-10.5)

The Wildcats were in line to play for the national title until inexplicably stumbling against a very average Baylor club a couple of weeks ago. They can still make it to the BCS (likely the Fiesta Bowl) with a win here, but the 8-3 Longhorns will have a lot to say about that. Also at stake is K-State QB Collin Klein’s last chance to impress Heisman voters. There’s been a big push in the last few weeks for Texas A&M signal caller Johnny Manziel and Notre Dame linebacker Manti Te’o, but Klein could get the nod with a strong performance in this game. The Longhorns might get a bid to the Cotton Bowl with a win. Regardless of who ultimately comes out on top I don’t think it’ll be a double digit victory, so Texas is the pick.

Wisconsin vs. Nebraska (-2.5)

This is the Big Ten championship game and will be played on a neutral field at Lucas Oil Field in Indianapolis. The Badgers are 7-5 and actually finished 3^rd in their division, but because no one at their school molested little boys or traded merchandise for tattoos & lied about it they get the opportunity to play for the title and represent the conference in The Rose Bowl. These two teams played one another at the end of September in Lincoln, with the Cornhuskers eeking out a 3 point win. The Badgers come into the contest limping a bit, having lost their last two games to Tattoo U. & Pedophile St. There is no logical reason in the world to pick Wisconsin, and for once I will actually go with the prevailing logic and pick Nebraska.

Long Shot Scenario Has NIU Thinking Orange Bowl (chicago.cbslocal.com)
2012 bowl projections: Stanford picked for Rose Bowl (bayarea.sbnation.com)
Bowl Projections – Compiled from the web November 26, 2012 (bowlbound.wordpress.com)
Discover Fan Loyalty Poll: Projecting BCS Bowl Matchups Entering Championship Weekend (thepigskinreport.com)
BCS Bowl Match Ups – Early Look (ryandoak1.wordpress.com)
Bowl Projections 2012: Predicting BCS Matchups After Week 13 Games (bleacherreport.com)
BCS: Notre Dame, SEC winner to play for title (espn.go.com)
BCS standings sets up SEC title game as de facto national semifinal (cbssports.com)

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

The less said about last week the better. I went 1-6, with my only “win” a Pyrrhic victory at best (Philly beat Baltimore by 1 point, not covering the 2 point spread and making my choice of the Ravens technically correct). So, in classic mid-life crisis fashion I have decided to overcompensate. My record for the season thus far stands at 7-14, and even though I have absolutely nothing riding on these picks except my own pride I feel compelled to try to improve my winning percentage. Plus when I looked at this week’s slate of games that seemed interesting I just couldn’t narrow it down to 7. Therefore you get bonus picks today!! Don’t you feel blessed??

BYU at Boise St. (-7.5)

I had both of these teams ranked in my pre-season Top 25, the Cougars at #10 & the Broncos at #25. Thus far the results have been mixed. BYU stands at 2-1 while Boise St. is 1-1, and neither is ranked although a couple of victories could change that status quickly. This is a total vibe game for me. I feel like Boise is declining while BYU is on the rise. Both are usually underdogs when going up against highly regarded power conference competition like Notre Dame or Michigan St., but against one another they seem pretty evenly matched on paper. The Voices are screaming loudly on this one, and they are telling me to go with the underdog BYU, so that’s what I’ll do.

Kentucky at Florida (-24.5)

I have no doubt that the Gators will win this game. The question is will they cover the spread?? UK enters the contest an unimpressive 1-2, while the Gators are not only 3-0 but have actually played competitive opponents like Texas A&M and Tennessee. However, in their one “cupcake” game Florida, while victorious, only beat Bowling Green by 13 points. That seems significant, and gives me no reason to believe that they can whip a team…even the lowly Wildcats…by 3+ touchdowns. Therefore, even though I think they’ll lose the game, I’m picking Kentucky to cover the spread.

Missouri at South Carolina (-10)

The Tigers didn’t fare so well in their SEC debut a couple of weeks ago, getting hammered by the Georgia Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Steve Spurrier looks like he has the Gamecocks firing on all cylinders, though it must be pointed out that at 3-0 they haven’t really been tested by a strong opponent thus far. I think South Carolina easily passes this first test, while Missouri’s rough welcome tour continues.

California at USC (-16)

The talking heads and other pundits all had the Trojans at the top of their rankings as early as last spring. Yours truly didn’t buy the hype and placed them at #7 in my pre-season Top 25. I must admit that I didn’t think it’d be Stanford that crushed USC’s national title hopes, but that’s exactly what occurred last weekend. That’s probably bad news for the 1-2 Cal Golden Bears, because an angry home team isn’t someone you want to go up against. However, the question again is will the Trojans cover what is a pretty hefty spread?? Another factor that must be considered is the Bears’ state-of-mind after coming oh-so-close only to fall short against Ohio State last week. I think the timing is very bad for the underdogs and extremely good for the favorites, who I am picking to win & cover.

Michigan at Notre Dame (-6)

This will be one of the centerpiece games on Saturday night’s prime time slate. Both teams are ranked in the Top 20, with Notre Dame coming in a not all that shocking 3-0 for the first time in a decade, while the Wolverines are 2-1 but lost to the only legitimate opponent they have faced so far (#1 Alabama). The 2011 contest between these two was a classic, with three TDs being scored in the final minute & a half, the last one a game winning pass from Michigan QB Denard Robinson. We should all be so blessed to see such another exciting game this year, but that may be a bit too much to ask. I will probably regret this, but I’m going to pick Michigan here. As long as Robinson is still running the show the Wolverines can never be counted out.

Arizona at Oregon (-23.5)

Have the boys in Vegas not been paying attention?? Yes, the high powered Oregon offense has averaged 54 points per game in route to a 3-0 record. But they haven’t played anyone!! Meanwhile, as much as I hate to give Fraudriguez even one iota of credit, it must be said that the Wildcats have looked pretty good in averaging 46 points per game and going 3-0 themselves, including a big victory over Oklahoma State. So I am more than a bit surprised that the Ducks have been made 3+ touchdown favorites. I could understand 8…maybe 10…even 12…but 23 & a half?? That seems a bit shady to me. Either Oregon has built up a lot of respect in the course of their recent success, or strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Either way I’m not buying what they are trying to sell. I think this’ll be a really good, high scoring, eminently entertaining game. Oregon deserves to be the favorites and will likely win, but not by that much. I’ll take Arizona.

NY Giants (-1.5) at Carolina

The Giants have gotten a lot of media attention this week due to Coach Coughlin’s temper tantrum over Tampa’s odd end-of-game tactics last weekend, but that isn’t going to help them against Cam Newton. In my NFL prognostications I picked Carolina to go all the way to the NFC championship game, and this would be the perfect game to announce their presence to the world. Both teams are 1-1 (as is over 60% of the league), so this is the time to make a statement and get things headed in a positive direction. It’s still very early, but the difference between 1-2 and 2-1 should not be undervalued. New York will be without the services of RB Ahmad Bradshaw, and Carolina will have the home field in front a captive audience for an NFL Network Thursday night broadcast. Newton has already had his “coming out party” and is no secret at this point, but I think it would be accurate to say that the masses have bought into just him and not his team. This is a golden opportunity to change that and I think the Panthers will take advantage of it.

Houston (-2) at Denver

Is Peyton Manning back?? Well, at first we thought the answer was a resounding yes. But then last week was a huge “not so fast my friend” kind of thing. There are whispers that Manning cannot yet throw the ball deep. If that is the case then smart defensive coordinators will take advantage of it with a variety of blitzes daring him to launch downfield to receivers in single coverage. However, if the Broncos can construct the game plan in such a way that the long ball isn’t necessary then it may be a moot point. Houston is 2-0, but really how much can be gleaned from the fact that they’ve beaten up on the Miami Dolphins & Jacksonville Jaguars?? That’s the NFL equivalent to defeating two directional schools from 1-AA. I think the altitude in Denver combined with an angry & determined Peyton Manning spells doom for the Texans.

New England at Baltimore (-3)

This is a preview of my projected AFC championship game. The Ravens looked impressive crushing the Cincinnati Bengals in week one, but last week they got outyanked in the final two minutes by the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots also started out well, easily beating the Tennessee Titans a couple of weeks ago,yet last week they needed 10 points in the final 7 minutes to make a loss to the Arizona Cardinals look close. As much as I would LOVE to see pretty boy Tom Brady go down in flames twice in a row I just don’t think that’s going to happen. If the Cardinals would have played along and lost last week like they were supposed to I might have been tempted to go with Baltimore here given the home field advantage, but since I am thoroughly convinced that Bill Belichick is some sort of evil robot from the future sent back in time to wreak havoc on the NFL I think the Patriots will be out to make a statement after last week’s shocking loss and will win going away.

College Football Week 4 Predictions: BYU Cougars vs. Boise State Broncos (bleacherreport.com)
NCAA Football: The Most Intriguing Top 25 Matchups and Predictions for Week 4 (bleacherreport.com)
Notre Dame Football: Why the Irish Will Be 7-0 Heading into the Oklahoma Game (bleacherreport.com)
Analysis: What’s next for Big East after latest hit? (herald-review.com)
Heisman watch: Braxton Miller still paces Big Ten (btn.com)
College Football Flash: Week 4 Top 25 Outcomes in 10 Minutes or Less (bleacherreport.com)
Pac-12 football: Picks of the Week (USC wins, UCLA dominates and Utah upsets BYU) (blogs.mercurynews.com)
College football week 3: Tailgater picks of the week (isportsweb.com)
BYU Vs. Utah Final Score: Utes Upset No. 25 BYU In 24-21 Thriller (sbnation.com)
Mike Valenti’s Wednesday Watchers: Does Florida State Count? (detroit.cbslocal.com)

2012 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

As I write this I am suffering from a hacking cough reminiscent of the coal miners in that black lung commercial from a few years back. I’ll be just fine after a lovely steroid shot from my local neighborhood health care provider, but feeling this way just emphasizes the point that summer is nearly over and we are on the cusp of cooler temperatures, falling leaves, and the sweet scents of pumpkin, apples, cinnamon, & cloves filling the air. As much as I love summertime and hate to see it go, one thing that totally rocks about autumn is the return of football. It is time once again to look into the ol’ crystal ball and see what the college football season may have in store. Once again let me remind readers that I am far from an expert. I am not compensated for my expertise and have never claimed to be very good at this, so wager with caution if your choices are based on what you read here.

1 Oklahoma

Last season…10-3

Key games…10/13 vs. Texas, 10/27 vs. Notre Dame, 11/24 vs. Oklahoma St.

I just feel like the team who wins the super tough Big 12 has to be in the national championship conversation, and I think that team will be the Sooners. It is interesting to note that all three of the crucial games noted above will be played in Norman, which will be vital to the team’s title aspirations.

2 Michigan

Last season…11-2

Key games…9/1 vs. Alabama, 9/22 at Notre Dame, 11/24 at Ohio State

Michigan football is back on track following the debacle that was The Fraudriguez Era. One must give much respect to the powers-that-be in Ann Arbor, because this schedule is brutal, especially starting the season against defending national champion Alabama when most other teams will be playing cupcakes. QB Denard Robinson has to be considered a leading Heisman contender and is a threat to take it in for 6 everytime he touches the ball.

3 South Carolina

Last season…11-2

Key games…10/6 vs. Georgia, 10/13 at LSU

The Gamecocks season likely rests largely on how well junior RB Marcus Lattimore comes back from a torn knee ligament suffered last October. If he’s as good as he was before the injury bright things might be ahead in Columbia. The October 13^th contest at LSU is huge, and I would not at all be surprised if we see an upset.

4 USC

Last season…10-2

Key games…11/3 vs. Oregon, 11/24 vs. Notre Dame

The Trojans are back in the championship mix after suffering thru 2 years of probation and a post-season ban. Most talking heads are handing them the #1 ranking to start the season, but I think that in the long term other teams from tougher conferences will pass them up. QB Matt Barkley decided to come back for his senior year rather than enter the NFL Draft, which will be an immense help. Barkley will be prominent in the Heisman discussion.

5 Wisconsin

Last season…11-3

Key games…9/29 at Nebraska, 11/17 vs. Ohio State

The Badgers are my kind of football team…smashmouth running, tough defense, concentrate on the fundamentals. Are they exciting to watch?? Probably not for most folks. But they get the job done and always seem to be in the midst of the battle for the Big 10 title. RB Montee Ball is back for his senior season and is the highest returning Heisman vote getter from last year (he finished 4^th). Last season the Badgers were led by transfer QB Russell Wilson, and in 2012 they will start another transfer behind center, former Maryland signal caller Danny O’Brien. The formula certainly worked before and I see no reason why it can’t again.

6 Florida St.

Last season…9-4

Key games…9/22 vs. Clemson, 11/8 vs. Virginia Tech, 11/24 vs. Florida.

Coach Jimbo Fisher enters his 3^rd season as head coach and is slowly but surely moving from underneath the considerable shadow of legendary former coach Bobby Bowden. QB EJ Manuel returns for his senior season, and though no one would likely put Manuel on the same level as fabled former Seminole signal callers like Charlie Ward, Danny Kanell, or Chris Weinke (2 of those 3 won the Heisman Trophy), one cannot underestimate the value of an experienced veteran field general. I’ve never had a ton of respect for the ACC, and I see no reason why this team shouldn’t blow thru their schedule with relative ease, especially with the two big games noted above being played in Tallahassee.

7 Alabama

Last season…12-1

Key games…9/1 vs. Michigan, 9/15 at Arkansas, 11/3 at LSU

It’s not that I don’t think the defending national champions won’t be good, it’s just that I think their schedule is so tough that it is going to be nearly impossible to maintain the heights that they have achieved the past few years, especially with RB Trent Richardson now plying his trade in the NFL. I’m predicting an upset loss to Michigan in the season opener, which will quickly all but end the dream of a repeat for the Tide. I still think this is a team that’ll secure 9 or 10 wins, which wouldn’t be bad considering their fierce schedule.

8 Nebraska

Last season…9-4

Key games…9/29 vs. Wisconsin, 10/27 vs. Michigan

The Cornhuskers acquitted themselves quite nicely in their inaugural Big 10 season, just as your humble Potentate of Profundity predicted. Now that all the hype is over and the novelty has worn off they can get down to business. This is another team, like the previously mentioned Wisconsin Badgers, that tends to stick with straight ahead, no frills, fundamentally sound football…and it works. I like that their two biggest games are both at home, and that should go a long way in helping to ensure another 9 win season.

9 Oregon

Last year…12-2

Key games…11/3 at USC

Don’t let the 384 flashy uniform combinations fool you…the Ducks are a formidable football foe for any opponent. Their season essentially boils down to one game versus the mighty Trojans in Los Angeles. Whoever wins that game likely wins the Pac-12 and will be in the hunt for a national championship.

10 BYU

Last year…10-3

Key games…9/20 at Boise St., 10/20 at Notre Dame, 10/27 at Georgia Tech

The Cougars enter their 2^nd season as an independent, which I am not so sure is a good thing. Eventually they will have to get back into a conference in order to survive the ever changing college football landscape. However, for now it looks like they are having no problems putting together an interesting & competitive schedule, which should earn them respect if they are able to win some big games. It’s a tall order for sure, but I am betting that they’ll pull off an upset or two or three. It must be noted that I put this team in the same exact position in last year’s pre-season poll, but despite finishing with 10 wins they just missed being ranked the Top 25, settling for the top “others receiving votes” spot. That would seem to indicate that they might need to finish undefeated to receive any type of recognition.

11 Cincinnati

Last year…10-3

Key games…9/29 vs. Virginia Tech, 10/26 at Louisville

As I said last year, someone’s got to win the Big East, right?? The conference is depleted this season due to the departure of West Virginia to the Big 12, and next season it will go thru a major overhaul when Pitt & Syracuse flee to the ACC and Central Florida, Memphis, Houston, & SMU join. For 2012 though the race looks to be wide open, and I am picking the Bearcats in a coin flip to emerge at the top of the pack.

12 Tennessee

Last year…5-7

Key games…9/15 vs. Florida, 9/29 at Georgia, 10/20 vs. Alabama, 10/27 at South Carolina

My first real shot in the dark for 2012. When I think of the Volunteers I think of Rocky Top, Peyton Manning, and 102k fans rockin’ the checkered end zones at Neyland Stadium. However, the past few years have been a struggle in Knoxville, where the Vols have finished 7-6, 6-7, and 5-7. 2012 is head coach Derek Dooley’s 3^rd season and his team will be lead on the field by junior QB Tyler Bray, who is already being touted as a top NFL prospect. I realize that this team plays in the SEC, the toughest conference in America. Logic would dictate that there are atleast 7 teams just in the conference better than Tennessee on paper. But I just don’t believe that a team with so much tradition and history will stay down forever. Dooley is the son of legendary former Georgia coach Vince Dooley, so there’s got to be something in the genes, right??

13 Arkansas

Last season…11-2

Key games…9/15 vs. Alabama, 11/10 at South Carolina, 11/23 vs. LSU

It has been a tumultuous offseason in Fayetteville, with the scandalous departure of former coach Bobby Petrino and the hiring of journeyman coach John L. Smith. Normally I wouldn’t have much faith in a team that has undergone such turmoil, but the return of senior QB Tyler Wilson as well as the re-emergence of junior stud RB Knile Davis should provide much needed stability.

14 Northern Illinois

Last season…11-3

Key games…9/1 vs. Iowa, 9/22 vs. Kansas

I really enjoyed watching MAC games last year, and the Huskies were the cream of the crop in that conference. A few years ago my alma mater Marshall left the MAC for C-USA, and I contend to this day that it was a shortsighted decision. Out of conference victories against teams from more respected leagues will be vital to this team’s success.

15 Maryland

Last season…2-10

Key games…9/22 at West Virginia, 11/10 at Clemson, 11/17 vs. Florida St.

Head coach Randy Edsall enters his 2^nd year at the helm in College Park looking to rebound from a horrible 2011. My pick is based solely on my vibes, not on any concrete evidence that the Terrapins have improved in any significant way. Edsall is simply too good of a coach to have another putrid season.

16 Central Florida

Last season…5-7

Key games…9/8 at Ohio State, 9/29 vs. Missouri, 10/13 vs. Southern Miss.

Did you know that UCF is the largest university in the state of Florida and the 2^nd largest in the United States?? Obviously that doesn’t automatically translate into football supremacy, but it should count for something. This will be the Knights last season in C-USA before joining the Big East in 2013, and I am predicting that they’ll go out with a bang. I do not believe that they’ll beat Ohio St., and would be surprised if they defeat Missouri, but those games can provide valuable seasoning before this team gets into the meat of their conference schedule.

17 LSU

Last season…13-1

Key games…10/13 vs. South Carolina, 11/3 at Alabama, 11/23 at Arkansas

A year ago I predicted that the Bayou Bengals would suffer losses “to out-of-conference foes West Virginia & Oregon and atleast two fellow SEC teams.” I was wrong. Way wrong. So now I find myself again in the position of predicting a finish for LSU far lower than what the “experts” are envisioning. The SEC is just too competitive for the same two teams…the Tigers and ‘Bama…to continue to dominate every year. Other teams will rise. They will be hellbent & determined to defeat the perceived top two and prove their worth. One cannot have a huge target on one’s back for long without eventually being taken down. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

18 East Carolina

Last season…5-7

Key games…9/8 at South Carolina, 9/15 at Southern Miss., 10/4 at UCF

I’ve had the opportunity to watch the Pirates play for many years against both the West Virginia Mountaineers and my Marshall Thundering Herd, and I’ve always liked what I see. It would be surprising to see two C-USA teams sneak into the Top 25, but it could happen. This will be head coach Ruffin McNeil’s third season in the captain’s seat, and it is very important that he get his team over the hump. I am betting he will.

19 Auburn

Last season…8-5

Key games…9/1 vs. Clemson, 9/22 vs. LSU, 10/6 vs. Arkansas, 11/10 vs. Georgia, 11/24 at Alabama

The Tigers went from being the undefeated national champions in 2010 to an 8 win season last year after losing Heisman Trophy winning QB Cam Newton to the NFL. That’s really not that bad of a drop off all things considered. 4 of the 5 key contests noted above will be played in the friendly confines of Jordan-Hare Stadium, and I think it quite conceivable that the War Eagles could win 3 out of the 5. An 8 or 9 win season in the SEC should be enough to merit Top 25 consideration.

20 Louisville

Last season…7-6

Key games…10/26 vs. Cincinnati, 11/10 at Syracuse

I picked Cincinnati to win the Big East in a coin flip. The loser of that toss up?? The Cardinals. But that doesn’t mean I believe they’ll be bad, just that their conference title hopes will boil down to one game that I think they’ll lose. I like what head coach Charlie Strong has done at The ‘Ville the past couple of seasons, and think their trajectory is still heading upward. Sophomore quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is only going to get better, which is bad news for the rest of the conference.

21 Notre Dame

Last season…8-5

Key games…9/15 at Michigan State, 9/22 vs. Michigan, 10/27 at Oklahoma, 11/24 at USC

Here’s the thing about the Irish…they can lose 3 or 4 games and still sneak into the Top 25 because the media just fawns all over them like they do our current President. So even though they have a murderous schedule and will almost certainly lose atleast 3 of the 4 matchups noted above it won’t matter as long as they take care of business against teams they should beat easily like Navy, Purdue, Pitt, and Wake Forest. The big question right now is at QB, where redshirt freshman Everett Golson has been named the starter due to the one game suspension of junior Tommy Rees. One has to wonder how short of a leash coach Brian Kelly will have on Golson as the season progresses. In 2011 Kelly vacillated between Rees and Dayne Crist, and that instability was likely atleast partially to blame for a couple of losses. If Kelly pulls Golson at halftime of game 2 or 3 it could once again torpedo the entire season.

22 Texas

Last season…8-5

Key games…9/29 at Oklahoma State, 10/13 vs. Oklahoma

The once mighty Longhorns bottomed out in 2010 with a 5-7 record. Last season they rebounded a bit, but still didn’t rise to the heights to which they are accustomed. Sure they beat the teams they were supposed to, but fell flat against ranked opponents. Will that change in 2012?? I think it just might. Coach Mack Brown must choose a quarterback…either sophomore David Ash or junior Case McCoy…and stick with him. At the moment it looks like Ash will begin the season as the top signal caller, but it seems likely that McCoy will also see action. I have never been a fan of utilizing a two QB system, so we’ll see how it all shakes out. All indications are that this is a loaded team at most other positions, but nothing will drag a team down faster than poor play at the game’s most important position.

23 Syracuse

Last season…5-7

Key games…9/8 vs. USC, 11/3 at Cincinnati, 11/10 vs. Louisville

Am I hedging my bets?? I suppose. I mentioned previously that the Big East looks to be a wide open race, but would be surprised if three teams make it into the Top 25. And while I believe that Cincinnati & Louisville will wage a head-to-head battle for the title I won’t be totally shocked if another club inserts itself into the mix. The once mighty Orange…alma mater of running backs Ernie Davis, Jim Brown, & Larry Csonka, quarterback Donovan McNabb, and wide receiver Art Monk…have fallen on hard times recently, posting only one winning record in the past decade, and have lost the respect of most fans & pundits. This will be their last season in the Big East before going to the ACC, and I think they’ll want to go out with their heads held high. Coach Doug Marrone is entering his 4^th year, and he will have senior QB Ryan Nassib to lead the offense. No one is going to confuse Nassib with John Elway, but I put a lot of value in a veteran presence behind center. Don’t be surprised if the Orange win 8 or 9 games and sneak into the rankings. Remember…you heard it here first.

24 Oklahoma St.

Last season…12-1

Key games…9/29 vs. Texas, 11/10 vs. West Virginia, 11/24 at Oklahoma

The Cowboys came within a whisper of playing for the national championship in 2011 and probably should have received the opportunity. That being said, in 2012 they face the daunting task of replacing star QB Brandon Weeden and all-world WR Justin Blackmon…no easy task. The Big 12 may be the best football conference top to bottom outside the SEC, so wins won’t come easy, but I feel comfortable giving this team 8 or 9 victories which should be enough to sneak into the Top 25.

25 Boise St.

Last season…12-1

Key games…12/31 at Michigan State, 9/20 vs. BYU

The Broncos will join the Big East next year, and as maligned as that conference is it’ll still be a better situation than this team has been in for awhile. They have achieved double digit wins 5 years in a row but haven’t been in legitimate national title contention because of the weakness of their schedule. That won’t change much this season, and they’ll probably have to win atleast 11 games to be taken seriously. Complicating matters is the need to replace former quarterback Kellen Moore, a 4 year starter who led the team to 50 victories and threw for nearly 15k yards and over 140 touchdowns. However, while a weak schedule won’t get a team much love in regards to playing for a championship it should help with keeping them ranked.

Michigan Football: Most Important Matchups for Denard Robinson’s Heisman Hopes (bleacherreport.com)
College Football: Heisman Trophy Is One Area the SEC Does Not Dominate (bleacherreport.com)
Notre Dame Football: Previewing the 2012 Season (isportsweb.com)
Notre Dame Reportedly Will Announce Everett Golson as Starting QB (bleacherreport.com)
Golson named Notre Dame’s starting quarterback for opener (myrtlebeachonline.com)
USC sits atop AP preseason poll; ‘Bama No. 2 (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
What sanctions? USC No. 1 (nbcsports.msnbc.com)
USC brushes off sanctions to be No. 1 in AP Top 25 (thehimalayantimes.com)
USC No. 1 in AP Top 25, K-State 22nd (kansascity.com)
Look who’s No. 1|USC brushes off sanctions; 1 Big East team in Top 25 (rep-am.com)

A Look At The College Bowl Games

Much like other tasks this holiday season, I have waited until the last minute to take a gander at the muddled landscape of bowl games. We are on the eve of the first two of nearly three dozen mostly meaningless, hopefully entertaining gridiron clashes that range from the sublime to the ridiculous. Let’s take a look.

New Mexico

Fresno State vs. Wyoming

Fresno State is almost always fun to watch. I would place them on a tier about a half step below Boise St. as far as smaller schools with great potential in big games. Wyoming is one of those 6-6 teams that, under my benevolent dictatorship of college football, would never be rewarded for a .500 record. Fresno State wins easily.

St. Petersburg

UCF vs. Rutgers

This is basically a home game for Central Florida. I’ll take the Knights in a competitive contest.

New Orleans

Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee

I don’t know enough about these teams to comment intelligently on the matchup, so I’ll go with my vibes, which are saying Southern Miss wins a game that no one will see because they’ll either be watching the Vikings/Panthers NFL game or whatever Christmas movies happen to be on TV.

Las Vegas

Oregon State vs. BYU

What’s not to love about this game?? It’s in Vegas, one of the coolest towns in the universe and it features two good teams who actually deserve to be in a postseason game. On paper BYU looks better, but Oregon St. is battle tested in the tough Pac 10. I think this will be a high scoring shootout, which is always great fun. In the end I’ll go with the Beavers in a squeaker.

Poinsettia

Utah vs. California

Another good game. I’m impressed. The loss of RB Jahvid Best to a spectacular concussion will have a deleterious effect on the Golden Bears, so the nod goes to the Utes.

Hawaii

Nevada vs. SMU

When I was a kid in the early 80’s SMU was a very good team featuring The Pony Express, i.e. the running back tandem of future NFL legend Eric Dickerson and Craig James. A few years later the football program was given a “death penalty” for cheating, aka paying players. The death penalty was really only a 2 year hiatus, but its effects have been long lasting. More than 2 decades later SMU has finally clawed their way back to respectability. To be honest both of these teams are already winners…they’re spending the holidays in Hawaii for pete’s sake. As far as the game, I hate to say it but I think the Mustangs much desired fairy tale ending won’t happen in paradise, as Nevada is just too good.

Little Caesars

Marshall vs. Ohio

Merry Christmas gentlemen…your success on the field prompted Santa to reward you with a trip to Detroit in December. Full disclosure…I am a proud alumnus of Marshall University. I was there when Chad Pennington took his very first snap, and I had the pleasure of watching both Randy Moss and Byron Leftwich play for the Herd. This game probably doesn’t interest about 95% of the football lovin’ masses, but I’ll be watching and cheering my team onto victory.

Meineke Car Care

Pitt vs. North Carolina

Pitt’s fan base doesn’t travel and this is basically a home game for the Tar Heels. Last year North Carolina lost a thriller to West Virginia, so they’ll be seeking retribution and I think they’ll get it.

Emerald

Boston College vs. USC

Wow, what a disappointing season for Southern Cal. They aren’t used to playing in December bowl games for sure. I think this is the first time they haven’t been in the BCS mix in 8 years. Meanwhile, BC has to be licking their chops at the thought of taking on what most consider one of the top teams of the decade. The study in contrasts…motivation vs. no motivation…is stunning, and I think that’s exactly what the Eagles will do. Boston College by a touchdown.

Music City

Kentucky vs. Clemson

Isn’t Kentucky a basketball school?? Anyway, Clemson has outstanding RB CJ Spiller, and I think he’s the difference. Clemson should win comfortably.

Independence

Texas A&M vs. Georgia

Georgia had a very disappointing season. A lot of folks, including me, had them highly ranked in the preseason. But losing a star RB and QB was just too much loss for the Bulldogs. My vibes are saying the Aggies win a very close, competitive game.

EagleBank

UCLA vs. Temple

I’m fascinated by this game. First of all, I thought there was a financial crisis and all the banks were going belly up, so how is one affording to sponsor a bowl game?? Secondly, it’s in Washington DC. Ah, the plot thickens. And finally, making their first bowl appearance in 20 years are…the Temple Owls. I thought they’d dropped down a division or disbanded the football program. The opponents are UCLA, who make their way to DC from the other side of the country. That, I believe, will be a huge factor. Temple will be pumped and out to prove something, UCLA will be 3000 miles from home with few fans in the seats. Temple wins a close game.

Champs Sports

Miami vs. Wisconsin

I sure didn’t see the revival of Hurricanes football coming, atleast not yet. Good for them. Wisconsin plays in the Big Ten so their games tend to not be very exciting or remotely interesting, but I do like the fact that they play good old fashioned smashmouth football. I think this game will be won with a big play or two, and that is more likely to be pulled off by Miami.

Humanitarian

Bowling Green vs. Idaho

I’m not sure why this game even exists. The only thing I can think of is that some television pinheads like the idea of a bowl game played on the unique blue turf. Or maybe it’s a conspiracy lead by Big Potato. Anyway, I couldn’t possibly care less, as this may be the least interesting bowl game in history. I’ll give the nod to the Vandals.

Holiday

Arizona vs. Nebraska

Now THIS is a good game, one I will set the reminder on the remote for. Those who prefer high powered offensive shootouts may disagree, because this one is likely to be a defensive struggle. I’ll take the under at 35 points total and give the edge to Nebraska.

Armed Forces

Houston vs. Air Force

Speaking of shootouts…here you go. The over on this one should be 70 points easily, and I’m going with Houston.

Sun

Oklahoma vs. Stanford

Oh what might have been. Oklahoma certainly had higher hopes for this season, but a knee injury to QB Sam Bradford ended those dreams early. Meanwhile, Stanford burst onto the scene with record setting RB Toby Gerhardt, a battering ram reminiscent of Jerome Bettis or Earl Campbell. Word on the street is that Stanford’s talented freshman QB Andrew Luck is injured and may not play in this game, which would be a difference maker. If Luck plays Stanford wins, if he does not then the pick is Oklahoma.

Texas

Navy vs. Missouri

I know Texas is special (my best friend lives there and tells me how awesome it is), but why does it deserve its own bowl game?? Playing in The Big 12 makes Missouri a bit more battle tested than Navy, so I’ll go with the Tigers.

Insight

Minnesota vs. Iowa State

If you are curious, this game is named after an information technology company in Arizona, it does not mean that the winners of the game will suddenly gain a heretofore unknown level of self awareness or perception. The game matches two 6-6 teams, which itself is an atrocity. They should rename it the Mediocre Bowl. As a matter of fact, because of the level of mundaneness involved, it doesn’t deserve the honor of me picking a winner.

Chick-fil-A

Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee

This used to be called The Peach Bowl. At one time it was even played on New Year’s Day. I love Chick-fil-A as much as the next guy, but the former name needs to return ASAP. In the meantime, a completely overrated Hokie squad takes on a Volunteers team lead by new coach Lane Kiffin, who’s spent months trying to act like a new version of Steve Spurrier and pulled it off quite nicely. I’m picking Tennessee in an upset.

Outback

Northwestern vs. Auburn

Northwestern is playing in a New Year’s Day bowl game?? Really?? If the Wildcats win this one and the New England Patriots miss the playoffs ESPN’s Mike Greenberg might just keel over from the ensuing apoplectic pleasure. Fortunately I think Greeny’s health, if not his everlasting happiness, is safe because Auburn will win this game.

Capital One

Penn State vs. LSU

No bowl game should ever…EVER…be named after a credit card company. That’s just cruel. On the field will be two teams who probably had visions of something a little grander at the start of the season, but both fell short of expectations. No one wants to see Joe Paterno exit in the politely forced way Bobby Bowden is leaving Florida State, so I think his players will be ready to rock n’ roll. This may be the sleeper game of the entire bowl season, a back and forth contest decided in the final minute. A flip of the coin gives the nod to Penn State.

Gator

West Virginia vs. Florida State

Florida State is undoubtedly a popular sentimental choice among the masses given that this is Coach Bowden’s final game. If he were playing most any other team I might roll with it, but I am a lifelong Mountaineer fan who lives less than an hour from the school. But above and beyond all that, the only reason anyone would pick Florida State is because of the romantic, nostalgic aspect. If most pundits who are following their hearts were truly honest with themselves they’d know deep down that West Virginia is the logical pick. I say the Mountaineers win it going away, with Bowden having that sad “it’s over” look on his face the entire 4^th quarter, although if I were to write a script I think it’d be fun to have the Seminoles in it to the end when they line up for a last second game winning field goal only to see it sail wide right. But really…thanks for the memories Bobby.

Rose

Ohio State vs. Oregon

Ohio State is another overrated team. They won 10 games, but among those wins were victories over Illinois, Indiana, New Mexico State, Toledo, and Michigan…five teams with 20 wins among them. Meanwhile, Oregon battled through the Pac 10 with big wins over Utah, California, Arizona, and USC. Oregon wins The Granddaddy in grand fashion.

Sugar

Cincinnati vs. Florida

Cincinnati is a Big East team who just lost their coach to Notre Dame, so no one expects anything out of them. Meanwhile, the sports media should be tested for both VD and arthritis as much time as they spend on their knees fellatiating Florida and QB Tim Tebow (who apparently will be the only disciple Jesus will need upon His return). If Brian Kelly would have stuck around in Cincinnati I would have picked the upset for sure, but the coaching situation makes me hesitant. There is a precedent though. In the 2008 Fiesta Bowl n-o-o-n-e picked West Virginia over Oklahoma. The Mountaineers had just suffered a shocking loss to an abysmal Pitt team that cost them an opportunity to play for the national title and then watched their evil, despicable, dirtbag coach lie through his teeth en route to a new gig at Michigan (how’s that working out Fraudriguez??). The situation served as motivation for West Virginia. Will somewhat similar circumstances provide the impetus for Cincinnati to defeat the Gators?? I’m leaning toward “no”, as much as that sucks. Florida’s defense is just too tough.

International

South Florida vs. Northern Illinois

Why in the blue hell are there eight games being played AFTER New Year’s Day?? And why is one of them in Canada?? I’m picking Northern Illinois in an upset.

Papajohns.com

South Carolina vs. UConn

I’m a big fan of pizza, really I am. But naming two bowl games after pizza joints is ridiculous. The sentimental choice is UConn, a team whose season has been eventful and not in a good way. But when the coach on the opposing sideline is Steve Spurrier the task becomes quite difficult. This may be another sleeper game that comes down to the end. Connecticut has the experience edge in those sorts of games…the experience of seeing them slip from their grasp. I’ll take the Gamecocks in a squeaker.

Cotton

Oklahoma State vs. Ole Miss

The season can be called a success for both teams, no matter what happens in this game. Oklahoma Ste went downhill a bit after the suspension of star WR Dez Bryant, and his absence will prove harmful here as well. I’m going with the Rebels in a competitive game.

Liberty

Arkansas vs. East Carolina

Once upon a time the Liberty Bowl was a middle-of-the-road December bowl game. Now All the sudden it’s a post-New Year’s contest. Odd. This looks to be a high scoring affair with no time for such trifles as defense. Arkansas has the QB everyone’s talking about, but East Carolina has the better overall team and has something to prove. Look for the Pirates to steal this one.

Alamo

Michigan State vs. Texas Tech

Michigan State suspended 8 players for this game after they got into a physical tete-a-tete with some frat boys. That’ll kill their chances, along with any chance this had of being a watchable game. Texas Tech wins in a blowout.

Fiesta

Boise State vs. TCU

The powers-that-be are pretty slick. They couldn’t take the chance that two schools from non-BCS conferences would score two huge wins against traditional power conference schools, so they pitted the two intruders against one another. Outrageous, but savvy. Both of these teams are undefeated but never had a snowball’s chance to play for the championship, all the evidence anyone should need to see that the BCS system is poppycock. One of them will remain unbeaten after this game and have a legitimate gripe. The game itself should be highly entertaining and deserving of its Monday night January 4^th time slot, all alone on the football landscape, the center of the sports world with all eyes focused on it. Boise has experience on this kind of big stage, TCU does not. That’s the difference and why I’m picking Boise State to win.

Orange

Iowa vs. Georgia Tech

This game might get overlooked. It’s on January 5, which is right around the time some may be reaching a football hangover and have that “let’s just get it over already” attitude. There are way too many of these games and they are stretched out too far, even for die hard pigskin fans like me. And if Boise/TCU is as exciting as it has the potential to be folks may still be talking about it. Also, let’s be honest…these aren’t the two most exciting teams in the universe and they don’t play in the two sexiest conferences. Big 10 football is plodding and prosaic, the ACC is increasingly irrelevant. But let’s be fair. These are two very good teams who should have a good game. I think Iowa’s line will wear out Georgia Tech in the 4^th quarter and seize control, giving the Hawkeyes the victory.

GMAC

Central Michigan vs. Troy

One more game whose existence seems unexplainable. Alabama already has the Liberty Bowl…does it really need another postseason game?? Anyway, the people in charge of this thing were hoping Notre Dame and its 6-6 record would participate, but the arrogant bastards in South Bend decided they’d rather stay home then play in a “lesser” bowl game. Sure they used the fact that they’d just fired their coach as an excuse, but that’s a load of Barbara Streisand. As a matter of fact, Central Michigan is going to be lead by an interim coach because theirs, Butch Jones, is leaving for Cincinnati. Why?? Because Cincinnati’s coach, Brian Kelly, is leaving for…Notre Dame. What a tangled web those catholic boys weave, huh?? On the field Central Michigan is clearly the superior team. I don’t think the coaching carousel will affect them too much, and I think they’ll roll to victory.

National Championship Game

Texas vs. Alabama

I can’t add much to the discussion that hasn’t or won’t be said by a multitude of talking heads in the coming weeks. We’ve known for many weeks that this would be the matchup to decide the title, the only mystery being whether it’d be Alabama or Florida. It was a three team race nearly all season. Whether or not that is fair to teams like Cincinnati, TCU, and Boise State is a debate for another time, but all things considered this looks to be a fairly tantalizing matchup. Texas looked pretty shaky in its last two games against Texas A&M and Nebraska. They won the Big 12 Championship over Nebraska on a last second field goal that may or may not have been aided by a friendly clock operator. Meanwhile, Alabama legitimized its ranking by destroying Florida and Saint Tebow in the SEC Championship. The end result of those two title games was that some of the luster of this game was off before it ever started. Most are assuming the Tide will roll and claim the not-as-mythical-as-it-used-to-be national championship, and I concur. Alabama just looks to be the more complete team. Will it be a blowout?? No. But will it be a game the average fan will easily recall a few years from now?? Probably not.

Random Thoughts 12

I was always taught that if you don’t have anything nice to say then don’t say anything at all. So…..I am withholding comment on the happenings at Michigan involving football coach Rich Fraudriguez…..for now. Let’s see how it all shakes out. I will simply opine at this moment that an upset victory over an overhyped & overrated Notre Dame should not mean possible cheating gets conveniently overlooked.

The older I get the bigger fan I become of normal, solid names like George, James, Joe, Vince, Paul, and Ike. Unusual and cute names are just irritating.

I refuse to buy baseball caps with Velcro closures.

President Hussein Obama seems hell bent on “convincing” the American public that we need socialized health care. Obama obviously misunderstands the concept of democracy and representative government, which is that we tell you what we want, you do NOT tell us what you want. We don’t care what you want. Your job is to represent the people who are, collectively, a whole lot smarter than you Mr. President. This health care debate needs to end right now, today. We’ve made our opinion perfectly clear…it is the job of those whom we elected to submit to the will of the people.

Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Pirates on your record setting 17th season with a losing record, meaning that you really do suck worse than anything has ever sucked before. Everyone associated with the organization must be so proud. I wonder if they had cake…maybe had t-shirts or other mementos made…maybe a special luncheon to mark their accomplishment??

I’d be interested in meeting the inventor of the funnel cake, the person whose idea it was to deep fry dough and top it with powdered sugar, all in an amoeba-like shape. Yum!!

I already had no use for Kanye West. First of all, he’s a “rapper”, a form of artistic expression for which I have absolutely no appreciation. And of course he’s the dude who said a few years ago that President Bush hated black people…..one of the most asinine statements in the history of asinine statements. Now he’s gone and made an ass of himself once again by hijacking the MTV Video Awards, a harmless little pop culture fluff event. He stole country star Taylor Swift’s winning moment away by spouting some nonsense about how Beyonce should have won. I won’t claim to be a huge fan of either Swift or Beyonce, both of whom sell sexuality rather than musical ability…..but West’s actions prove just what a ghetto thug he really is (no wonder he’s such a fan of the current President), and if MTV had any cahonas whatsoever they’d not only ban him from their frivolous awards shows but ban him and his videos and anything else he’s involved in from their network for life.

I would like to suggest a new twist on sports prognostication. We’ve all see these guys on TV, in the newspapers, on websites, or on the radio who predict a large slate of games. The problem is that no one ever examines their results. I humbly propose that there should be consequences if it is proven that an “expert” is just a bag of hot air with no more expertise than you or me. Anyone predicting more than 2 games that are wrong with more than half of their guesses should be suspended for two weeks without pay.

Saturday Night Live is turning 35 this season. The cast is ever changing but one thing has remained the same for nearly all of SNL’s three decade run: producer Lorne Michaels…..which is probably why the show isn’t all that good anymore. One can’t expect a 65 year old man to still be in touch with what the 18-35 year old target demographic finds entertaining.

A Plan to Save College Football

There’s an old adage that says “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”. College football, to my knowledge, is as popular and successful as ever, so I suppose many would say why mess with a good thing. However, as a lifelong diehard fan of the sport, I truly feel it can be better. While many of the changes that have evolved during the course of my lifetime haven’t seemed to negatively impact business that does not necessarily mean that these changes have been positive. Monetary concerns have interfered in ways that have made college football a corporate sacrificial lamb while decreasing competitiveness and parity. Decisions are based on business considerations more than what’s best for the on-the-field product. These things may not significantly affect one’s enjoyment of the game on Saturday, but there is a cloud of self-indulgent self-interest hanging over the sport that has cheapened it somewhat and made even the most hardcore fan a bit cynical. I believe there are a few ways we can bring back atleast the appearance of virtue and tradition that is slowly and sadly evaporating.

1 Conference Realignment

Blame it on shrewd marketing, blame it on ESPN, blame it on whomever else you wish…..but the fact is that what we have right now in college football is about four conferences that matter, a few that used to matter but have fallen on rough times, and several others who are like the kid brother that desperately wants to play with the older kids but gets either knocked around or completely overlooked. We have craziness like the Big 10 having eleven teams, the ACC having a team like Boston College that’s nowhere near the Atlantic Coast for which the conference is named, and Conference USA having teams stretching across 1000 miles, from West Virginia to Texas. We have teams switching conferences like they’re a sorority girl sleeping her way through the campus until she finds the guy who’ll buy her the best gifts. Someone needs to stop the madness. The NCAA needs to act like the overseer it is supposed to be and stop letting individual conferences act selfishly while hurting the big picture. I will put forth details in a future series. For now I will just say that my conference realignment will take into consideration things like geography, traditional rivalries, and competitive balance. It will also keep an eye on how the conferences fit into the ultimate goal of crowning a legitimate national champion.

2 Eleven Game Season

For years college football teams played 11 games. Then the powers-that-be figured out that a 12^th game would make them more money. This 12^th game usually entails a powerhouse big conference team playing against a cupcake, a team from a much smaller and less competitive school, oftentimes from a lower division. It’s a win-win for the two schools involved. The smaller school gets paid a hefty sum for the game, money that goes into the school’s coffers and is undoubtedly spent on much needed projects most of the time. The smaller school also gets the added benefit of exposure, something that never hurts. And occasionally, as in Appalachian State’s remarkable upset of Michigan in 2007, the underdog wins which is just the cherry on top. The bigger school almost always gets an easy win to pad their schedule, something which is much more beneficial than it should be. In 2007 Ohio State beat 3 cupcakes (Youngstown St., Akron, and Kent St.) by an average of 32 points en route to an 11-1 regular season and a spot in the championship game, while other teams with tougher schedules but atleast 1 more loss were left on the outside looking in. The bigger team also gets the benefit of these types of games being on their home turf which enables them to make a lot of their money back since college football fans, being much more rabid and loyal than fans of pro teams, will sell out a 50 or 75 thousand seat stadium regardless of whether or not the game is actually good. The only losers are the fans, who will spend our hard earned money to attend or our precious time to watch these insipid and meaningless contests. I say bring the regular season back to 11 games…..2 or 3 non-conference games and 8 or 9 conference games. This would also give teams an incentive not to waste their precious few out of conference opportunities on games that, under my system, would hurt their strength of schedule and therefore their chance to make it into the playoff (more on that later).

3 One Poll

We have too many polls, too many voices telling us who should be #1. This has even lead in the past to a split national championship, where different teams were voted as the top dog by the writers and the coaches. The situation is worse now than it has ever been, even though the convoluted BCS system was supposed to achieve the goal of an undisputed champion. The BCS is itself comprised of a half dozen polls that require a PhD in mathematics to decipher. Add to that the fact that the Associated Press, one of the older and more respected rankings, opted out of the current system a couple years ago thereby re-opening the possibility of having two different championship teams. It’s just a mess. I am also of the opinion that a coaches’ poll is itself somewhat specious, with too many opportunities for jealousy, adversarial relationships, and revenge to inject themselves into the equation. What I propose is one poll made up of some acceptable mix of media, coaches, former players, and maybe even knowledgeable citizens with no ties to the sport itself. There could even be a mathematical component introduced that takes into consideration things like strength of schedule and point differential. In other words many of the same things that go into current polls, but all combined into one poll instead of several.

4 Notre Dame Isn’t Special

Notre Dame needs to be forced to join a conference immediately. Sorry Irish fans, but Knute Rockne and The Gipper are dead and it’s not the 1940’s anymore. It’s a real mystery to me why the sports media and the NCAA bend over backward in this day and age to put a product on a pedestal that’s really not that great of a product anymore. There are atleast a dozen teams who have been more successful than Notre Dame in the past 25 years and all of them are in conferences. Notre Dame has a winning tradition, a rich history, and a name brand that draws national interest and I am not disputing that. What I am saying though is that several other teams can lay claim to similar success, most of them more recent and relevant, and none of them expect the preferential treatment that the Irish demand. It’s time for Notre Dame to stop thinking it is somehow better than everyone else, join a conference, and play by the same rules as all the others. After all, a team that has a 58% winning percentage the past 4 years and a not much more impressive 65% over the past 3 decades doesn’t have that much legitimate leverage. In comparison, over the same 30 year time span, Ohio State has a winning percentage of 75%, USC 71%, and Florida State 78%. All of those teams are in a conference, so why should an exception be made for Notre Dame??

5 Conference Television Contracts

I like ESPN as much as the next guy. If you’re a sports fan “the family of networks” is nirvana. But I think maybe they have a bit too much power. And what’s up with Notre Dame having its own individual contract with NBC?? I know it seems like I’m picking on Notre Dame, and I am. It’s just that I cannot wrap my head around any reason why everyone seems to kowtow to them. It’s mind boggling. Also, why should the conferences have their own channels, like The Big Ten Network?? These are perfect examples of how the NCAA has abdicated its authority and let each conference run amok, basically going into business for themselves. When I turn on my television I see 5 places where college football ought to be found every fall Saturday (and I suppose Thursday night): ABC, CBS (and CSTV), NBC, ESPN (including ESPN2 & ESPNU), and Fox (which would include the regional Fox Sports channels and FX). Let each conference negotiate deals with a network, with each network limited to 2 conference deals. Maybe some networks only end up with one. So be it. If channels like TBS, USA, Spike, and Versus want to jump into the fray they would have the right to do so only after the “Big 5” have gotten first crack at what they want.

6 Limit Cupcakes

While going back to an 11 game season and having strength of schedule continue to be a key component in the ranking of teams very much helps the situation, we need one more control. Every Division 1 (the divisions would be realigned into Divisions 1,2,3,& 4…so no more 1-A, 1-AA, etc.) team would only be permitted to schedule 3 games with lower division teams in a 5 year period. That’s it. Sure, the fans enjoy the occasional David vs. Goliath upset, but more than that the fans like to see consistently competitive games.

7 No More Conference Championship Games

Let’s be honest…..there are only two reasons why conference championship games exist. First of all, some conferences (I’m looking at you SEC and ACC) are just too big. New conferences would have 9 or 10 teams maximum. Secondly…..greed. It’s always about the money. Always. If all the teams in a conference play each other over the course of the regular season there is no need to line anyone’s pockets…whether it’s a school, a conference, or a television network…with extra cash. These championship games are a relatively new invention and not necessarily a good one.

8 Only Three Independents

As previously mentioned, Notre Dame needs to join a conference because their arrogant sense of entitlement is misplaced and erroneous. However, under my plan we would have 3 independent teams…..Army, Navy, and Air Force. These teams represent our military, they represent the nation as a whole, they represent freedom and democracy. These are the teams that should be put on a pedestal and have earned a sense of entitlement, not because of success on the field but because of what their institutions and therefore their graduates do off the field. Besides, it would be a great recruiting tool. They would be the ambassadors of college football. And fans nationwide could cheer for these teams because they would be independent and not tied to a conference. Their schedules would vary greatly from year to year, befitting of their ambassador role. Having your favorite team get to go up against one of the service academies would be an honor and a privilege. Once upon a time these teams, Army in particular, were very highly regarded. But the business of college football got in the way and has made each of them just another team. Sadly, outside their own conferences they are looked upon by many as being among the aforementioned cupcakes. That may not change overnight, and it may not ever completely change. After all, football is a sport of size and power, and the academies don’t necessarily get the biggest and strongest athletes. But the least we can do is celebrate them and put them in the special category they deserve to be in because of what they do for all of us that is so much more important than a football game.

9 A Playoff

I saved the best for last. Well…next to last.

There are only two things preventing a playoff from becoming reality in major college football. One is a sense of “tradition”…the old “we’ve always done it this way” mentality. This issue is a very small one though when one considers a lot of the other charming customs and rituals that have been thrown out the window the minute someone figured out a more profitable way of doing things. The bigger obstacles are greed and power. All those bowls that used to be named after fruit and regionally relevant products have been replaced with corporate names. Universities and conferences and cities make a lot of coin from these companies, who eagerly pay for a ton of positive press and a matchless advertising opportunity. Those universities, conferences, cities, and companies have a good thing going from a financial standpoint. It’s mutually beneficial for all sides and they aren’t going to give it up without a fight. They use every excuse in the book, from feigning concern about the academic careers of student athletes to hand wringing hysteria about how difficult it would be for fans to follow their teams to playoff games. To put it bluntly, it’s all poppycock. My alma mater, Marshall, was a 1-AA school when I was a student. I attended several playoff games and it was awesome. If anything a playoff would be more exciting and fun than the current bowl system. I won’t dive into details here, as I plan on laying out those details in a sequel series related to this entry. Suffice to say that a 16 team playoff while still retaining a revised version of the bowl system is eminently doable and much preferable to the existing system, atleast for us fans if not for the suits.

10 Bowl Revisions

Under my plan a few things would be done to revise the current post-season structure, the first of which is the playoff. However, as previously mentioned, the bowls would be kept, just on a smaller scale. Instead of nearly three dozen bowl games there would be maybe two dozen, if that. Corporate sponsorship would not be eliminated but it would be minimized. In other words, we aren’t naming bowls after a company. Neither are we naming bowls after a place. While the Papa John’s.com Bowl, Capital One Bowl, and Chick-Fil-A Bowl are atrociously insufferable names, the Texas Bowl and New Mexico Bowl aren’t much less obnoxious. Also, a record of 6-5 is a winning season and that’s just about it. To be bowl eligible 7 wins in an 11 game season should be required. New Year’s Day would regain its prominence, with the Rose, Sugar, Orange, Cotton, and Fiesta being played on that day and only the national championship game remaining after, hopefully to be played almost always on January 2^nd.

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