2015 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

kickoff_footballNow things are starting to get interesting. The conference schedules are heating up in the NCAA, and we’re beginning to get a good idea which NFL teams just might have a chance to be pretty good and which ones may have been a bit misjudged. Both Zach & I were mired in mediocrity last week…he went 2-3 while I was only slightly better at 3-2. Our hatred of the New England Patriots may have clouded our judgment a little, and the Philadelphia Eagles are even worse than I thought they’d be. So that means our season looks like this so far:

Me = 11-4               Z = 6-9

I’m feeling generous this week, and y’all may remember what that means…bonus picks!! I like to do that occasionally when the schedule seems particularly intriguing, and also because we usually end up taking a bye week for one reason or another at some point. We’re split down the middle with college & pro picks this week, and when it’s over we’ll have an even better inkling of the paths the season is heading down. Enjoy.

 

 

 
TCU (-7) at Texas Tech
Texas-Tech-260x300The Horned Frogs are currently ranked 4th in most polls, which would put them in the playoff. However I still think they will TCU Cool Logoultimately fall short…again. They didn’t look all that impressive in their season opener at Minnesota, and have played two cupcakes since then. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders blew thru their first two opponents and then pulled off a minor upset at Arkansas last week. In 2014 these two teams met in Fort Worth and TCU obliterated Tech 82-27. Not only is this game in Lubbock, but TCU recently had to kick a couple of guys off the team after they were arrested for beating some students up and stealing a case of Keystone Light. I’m not much of a beer connoisseur nowadays, but if I’m going to jail it’s not going to be for Keystone Light. Anyway, I’m not quite gutsy enough to pick the outright upset but this feels like a close one to me, the kind of game that will be decided late in the 4th quarter by a field goal, turnover, or punt return. Zach, on the other hand, thinks TCU will win easily.

My Pick – Texas Tech
Z’s Pick – TCU

Utah at Oregon (-13.5)
Oregon-DucksThe Utes are better than I expected. I don’t think they’re winning the Pac 12, but they could win 9 or 10 games and end up with utahquite the desirable bowl locale. The Ducks, as predicted, fell at Michigan St., so the national title is probably off the table…a conference title isn’t though. The points concern me more than a little, but I’m going to swallow hard, pray, & pick Oregon to cover. Zach is a bit more pragmatic, choosing Utah to cover the points but probably not win the game.

My Pick – Oregon
Z’s Pick – Utah

USC (-5.5) at Arizona St.
USC_Trojans2I haven’t bought into the Arizona St. hype from Day 1, but there are those that still believe they will have a stellar season and be in the conference title hunt. Conversely, I picked the Trojans #2 in my pre-season poll, a choice that doesn’t look promising after last week’s loss to Stanford. I think there remains a narrow path to the Final Four for USC, but it is undeniably a tough road. It’s interesting that the Trojans are favored on the road coming off a loss against an opponent riding a two game winning streak. I think it wise to pay attention to such things. Zach was as surprised as the rest of us by Stanford’s upset of USC, but he believes that the Trojans will rebound and win this one by two TDs.

My Pick – Southern Cal
Z’s Pick – Southern Cal

 

 

UCLA (-3.5) at Arizona
Well I know what I’ll be doing Saturday night. Since fair & festival season is over it’ll be nice to actually stay at home and relax with a warm beverage college_arizona_90& a good ball game. The Bruins escaped a thriller against BYU last week, while the Wildcats have barely broken a sweat thus far this season. UCLA has lost three defensive players to season ending injuries, with the latest being talented linebacker Myles Jack. That hurts. Conversely, Arizona defensive end Scooby Wright may or may not be ready to come back from an injury he suffered a few weeks ago. Bruins’ freshman QB Josh Rosen is probably the real deal, but he’s not faced a situation like this…a huge game in a hostile environment. This is Arizona’s moment to shine and I believe they’ll take it. Zach expects a high scoring shootout, with Arizona pulling off the upset.

My Pick – Arizona
Z’s Pick – Arizona

 

 

Atlanta (-2) at Dallas
No Romo. No Dez Bryant. No chance for the Cowboys?? Ehhh…I won’t go that far. I don’t think they’ll win the 12 games I originally forecasted, but falconsthey still have a better than average opportunity to top the pedestrian NFC East. Meanwhile, the Falcons are off to a hot start and also play in a mediocre division, which bodes well for them. Dallas will win games during the absences of Romo & Bryant…but not this game. Zach predicts the Falcons will win by atleast two TDs.

My Pick – Atlanta
Z’s Pick – Atlanta

 
Indianapolis (-3) at Tennessee
Tennessee_Titans_HelmetWhat in the world is going on with the Colts?? I thought Andrew Luck was supposed to be the next elite quarterback, theIndianapolis_Colts_Helmet standard bearer for the league once guys like Brady, Manning (you know which one), & Roethlisberger fade away. Elite quarterbacks overcome minor nuisances like their team’s poor defense or a substandard offensive line. Elite quarterbacks don’t go 0-2…or 0-3. It seems unlikely that Indy will go 14-2 as I predicted, but they are yet another team that can seemingly weather the storm and win an average division. Or can they?? Is the NFC South…with Tennessee, Houston, & Jacksonville…really as unimpressive as most believe?? Titans’ rookie QB Marcus Mariota looked pretty good in a Week 1 victory at Tampa, less so in last week’s loss to Cleveland. The smart money is on the Colts rebounding in this game and easing any doubts people have started to have about them, and also on Mariota continuing to have growing pains. Normally I’d go with that flow, but The Vibes are shouting at me to go against the grain. Zach thinks the Titans can hang for 3+ quarters but will eventually be defeated.

My Pick – Tennessee
Z’s Pick – Indianapolis

 
Buffalo at Miami (-3)
It looks like these are two teams that are still…sadly…chasing after the elusive golden snitch called the New England Patriots. Rumors of their vast Buffalo_Bills_Helmetimprovement were greatly exaggerated. That being said, there may still be a wildcard berth in the future of whichever team can get a leg up, and that starts now. The Bills do have some interesting weapons in WR Sammy Watkins & RB LeSean McCoy, and their defense has potential. I’m not at all sure QB Tyrod Taylor is legit, and going forward that is a mystery that’ll need to be solved. The Dolphins’ defense hasn’t met high expectations yet, and their running game is abysmal. At this particular moment in time Buffalo looks like it has the better overall team, and that’s the direction I lean. Zach concurs.

My Pick – Buffalo
Z’s Pick – Buffalo

 

 

Kansas City at Green Bay (-6.5)
kc-chiefs-logoThis is the Monday night game and I anticipate that it’ll be a dandy. Despite starting the season 1-1 I am still high on the ChiefsGreen_Bay_Packers_Helmet and expect them to be a playoff team. However, they are playing the Packers on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. That’s no easy task. RB Eddie Lacy has a sprained ankle and may or may not play for Green Bay, but James Starks is a capable backup. In my opinion it’s all about the defenses and I think Kansas City will stymie Aaron Rodgers just enough to make it way closer than 6 ½ points. Conversely, Zach believes Green Bay will win by a comfortable margin.

My Pick – Kansas City
Z’s Pick – Green Bay

2014 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 9

Your humble Potentate of Profundity hasn’t been feeling well. It’s a long story that I won’t bore citizens of The Manoverse with, but tonight after a couple of mugs of hot tea there seems to be a slight break in my misery, so I figured I’d better get this done now. Just please keep me in your prayers. I wish I had the robust faith of my brother The Owl and my buddy Don, but the truth is that sometimes my “blessed assurance” can occasionally falter. I’ve obviously still got some work to do there. Anyway…..

Last week I went 3-2 while Zach went 2-3. If you’d like all the details check out last week and see for yourself. Sorry…I’m feeling slightly better but still not as verbose as usual. Our season records are 21-22 for myself and 20-22 for Zach. I wasn’t feeling like Mike Tyson has been punching me in the groin for hours a few days ago when I chose this week’s games, so for some strange reason y’all get bonus picks this week. Enjoy.

 

 

 

 

Texas at Kansas St. (-10)
I like Texas head coach Charlie Strong and think he’ll eventually get the Longhorns turned around even if by the time he does the table is set for his fortunatekansas-state-dm successor. However this season they pretty much stink. Meanwhile, Wildcats’ head coach Bill Snyder, who I believe was born during the Millard Fillmore administration, has his team leading The Big 12 (which has 10 teams) and still with an outside shot to make it to the national title playoff. I think K St. easily covers the spread on their home field. Zach concurs.

My Pick = Kansas St.
Z’s Pick = Kansas St.

 

 
Ole Miss (-3.5) at LSU
The Rebels come into this game as a Top 5 team. I was under the impression that the Bayou Bengals kind of sucked this season but apparently they have snuck lsu_logo-9547into the Top 25. I suppose I should pay more attention. Anyway, I am picking the upset, as is Zach. Great minds think alike.

My Pick = LSU
Z’s Pick = LSU

 

 

 

USC at Utah (even)
USC_Trojans2How often is USC vs. Utah a game with even odds?? I’m not buying it even if the Utes are at home. Zach, however, thinks Utah is very utahtalented and is picking them to win the game in double overtime.

My Pick = USC
Z’s Pick = Utah

 

 

 

Ohio St. (-13) at Penn St.
Apparently the NCAA doesn’t believe that all the child molestation that occurred at Penn St. is a big deal, as earlier this season they were all like “You remember Penn_State_logo111111those sanctions that were going to set Nittany Lions football back a decade?? Ehhhh…forget it. Play ball!!”. Regardless of how one feels about that particular ruling the fact is that the Penn St. football program hasn’t gone that far in the crapper, atleast not far enough to get beaten by two TDs in Happy Valley in what I assume will be a nationally televised game. Zach agrees.

My Pick = Penn St.
Z’s Pick = Penn St.

 

 

 

Texas Tech at TCU (-22.5)
The Horned Frogs come into this game as a Top 10 team and are really only one improbable Baylor comeback away from being undefeated. Conversely the RedTexas-Tech-260x300 Raiders are a sub-.500 team that doesn’t seem to play all that well against legitimate competition. That being said, I am not comfortable with a 3+ TD spread. Zach thinks TCU will win…but only by 17. He’s probably right.

My Pick = Texas Tech
Z’s Pick = Texas Tech

 

 

 

Philadelphia at Arizona (-2.5)
The surprising Cards get the slight home field nod but this is essentially a pick ‘em. I am not yet convinced that Arizona is for real so I have to go with the underdogs.eagles Zach agrees.

My Pick = Philadelphia
Z’s Pick = Philadelphia

 

 

 

Miami (-5) at Jacksonville
Miami_Dolphins_HelmetHey it’s the Battle of Florida!! I remain convinced that the Jags are headed in the right direction with rookie QB Blake Bortles under center, butJacksonville_Jaguars they still need more pieces. The Dolphins aren’t a serious playoff contender yet but I think they’ll get the job done against less than stellar competition. Zach is predicting a big rushing day from former Michigan Wolverine QB/WR Denard Robinson and thinks Jacksonville will score the upset victory.

My Pick = Miami
Z’s Pick = Jacksonville

 

 

 

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3)
Zach doesn’t know this but he’s flying solo on this one. Because of a slight error made earlier in the season he has had one less game on his record than me forvikingshelmet1 several weeks. We’ll even things up now. These two teams are a combined 3-10 thus far and I’d rather take a nap or surf YouTube for…well…anything…than watch them do battle. Zach, because he is probably feeling better than me, has an even funnier (yet depressing) visual, saying that he’d “rather see Oprah Winfrey & Dr. Phil together on Dancing with the Stars” than watch this game. That boy has some good genes. Anyway, he apparently did “eeny meeny miney moe” and is going with the Vikings. That’s cool with me.

My Pick = n/a
Z’s Pick = Minnesota

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 1

ncaa-football-betting-sitesAnd we’re back!! It is the second most glorious time of year, behind only the Thanksgiving/Christmas/New Year’s holiday season. After a long hiatus football has returned and it is time to dive into year two of the Pigskin Picks of Profundity. In the inaugural season of the PoPs I finished with a dismal record of 46-71-1 (a 39% winning percentage). I can absolutely guarantee that I won’t lose as much in 2013. Why?? Well…because instead of picking 7 games each week I am only picking 5. There are two reasons for this. First of all I kind of felt like things Zgot a bit repetitive at some point last year, as if I was picking the same teams week in & week out. So this year we’ll spread the love a bit. Secondly, as promised, my eldest nephew Zachary will be making his picks as well. We’ll be the Siskel & Ebert of football. And yes…I am well aware that anyone under the age of 30 is unlikely to get the reference. Deal with it. At any rate, the NFL is still in pre-season mode but college football begins during this long Labor Day Weekend and surprisingly I was able to find a handful of intriguing matchups. I should note that I have not looked at Zach’s picks and he does not know mine so this should be entertaining.

 

 

Georgia (-2)               at        Clemson

id_bulldog_logo_lBoth teams are ranked in the Top 10 of both pre-season polls. In my pre-season rankings I have bothclemson teams just outside the Top 10. Both offenses should put on a show, while no one really knows what to expect from either defense. I think that both teams are likely to finish highly ranked with 9 or 10 wins no matter what happens here, but whoever loses this one is almost immediately out of the national championship picture. Also the winning QB…either Georgia’s Aaron Murray or Clemson’s Taj Boyd…will become an early Heisman frontrunner while the loser is probably out of the race. It is certainly the highlight of the first week of action and should be a close, entertaining game. Zach likes Boyd & Clemson’s explosive offense and believes a breakout season starts with a huge home victory. I like Murray and Georgia’s defense just a bit more.

My Pick                      Georgia

Z’s Pick                       Clemson

 

LSU (-4)                       vs        TCU

Neither is a Top 10 team but both are generally considered Top 20. I have LSU ranked 23rd but didn’t put the Horned Frogs in lsu_logo-9547my Top 25. The Bayou Bengals lost a ton of talent to the NFL but do return senior QB Zach Mettenberger. Meanwhile, TCU will be led by either senior signal caller Casey Pachall or sophomore Trevone Boykin. Pachall led the team to a 4-0 record in 2012 before being arrested for DWI and going to rehab. Boykin stepped in and the team was 3-6 with him under center. This is technically a neutral site game that’ll be played in the massive Cowboys Stadium in Dallas, but it should be pointed out that the stadium is 17 miles from Fort Worth, TX (home base for TCU) and 450 miles from LSU’s campus in Baton Rouge. Maybe they define neutral differently down there in the heartland than we do in Appalachia. Anyway, Zach correctly recalls that it took TCU two overtimes in 2012 to defeat our WV Mountaineers and their 119th ranked defense. He predicts a blowout. I am a bit more reserved in my enthusiasm, but either way we agree on the pick.

My Pick                      LSU

Z’s Pick                       LSU

 

Nevada                       at        UCLA (-20)

I predicted big things for UCLA, but for them to have anything close to a Top 15 finish they must win the games that they are nwsupposed to win. I have no doubt that they’ll be victorious in this contest. However, what intrigues me is the point spread. This is exactly the reason I include the spread in these picks. Three touchdowns is a lot…especially in the first week of the season. Plus Nevada utilizes the pistol offense and scored nearly 38 points per game in 2012 while going 7-6. Will the Wolfpack defense improve in 2012?? Can UCLA’s offense, led by sophomore QB Brett Hundley, keep up?? Neither Zach nor myself believe Nevada will lose by 20 points.

My Pick                      Nevada

Z’s Pick                       Nevada

 

Mississippi St.           at        Oklahoma St. (-13)

Here we have another point spread game. I’d be shocked if the Cowboys lost, but can they cover the two touchdowns?? It isoklahoma_state_cowboys_iphone_wallpaper unknown who will start behind center for Oklahoma St. and it is likely that two quarterbacks will see action, but does it really matter?? This is always a high scoring team, averaging about 43 points per game in 2012…which was actually a dropoff from their jaw dropping 48 points per game in 2011. Zach & I both think Oklahoma St. wins this one easily.

My Pick                      Oklahoma St.

Z’s Pick                       Oklahoma St.

 

Boise St.                     at        Washington (-3.5)

I am a bit surprised that the Huskies are favored in this game. Boise St. is ranked 19th in both major pre-season polls and hasboise-state1 won 10+ games in each of the past 7 seasons (during which head coach Chris Petersen is 84-8). Meanwhile the Huskies have had three straight 7-6 seasons. I double checked the odds multiple times so there is no mistake. I suppose heavy consideration is being given to home field advantage, but it still seems strange…as if the folks in Vegas know something we don’t. However, taken at face value the situation actually makes the choice fairly easy. Though I don’t have the Broncos in my Top 25 it is only because I think they’ll have to win 11 or 12 games to be ranked at the end of the year and the novelty of their underdog status has kind of worn off for me. But I certainly don’t believe they’ll screw the pooch in their first game against a mediocre opponent. Zach isn’t buying it either.

My Pick                      Boise St.

Z’s Pick                       Boise St.