The Sports Page

Where I will show love for the Steelers, Pirates, Thundering Herd, & Mountaineers and utter contempt for the Cowboys, Yankees, Jeff Gordon, & Notre Dame.

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 8

I feel the need to be candid. There was a brief moment this past weekend when I seriously pondered the idea of ending this charade. You see, I am a person who probably takes sports a bit too seriously. Losses affect me very deeply. I do not have a wife or girlfriend. I do not have children. I do not have a lot of friends or copious amounts of discretionary cash. I enjoy simple pleasures, one of those being the success of my favorite sports teams. When my Pittsburgh Steelers, who I knew deep down in my gut months ago might be on the threshold of a downward spiral, lost on a last second field goal to the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night, I was extremely disappointed. Then Saturday came and my “other” favorite college team (the top dog being my alma mater’s Marshall Thundering Herd, who were enjoying a bye week), the Top 5 ranked WV Mountaineers, were inexplicably blasted by Texas Tech, I was devastated. To add to the frustration I am in five fantasy football leagues and am not doing well in any of them. So when the icing on the cake became yet another exasperating go round with these picks I entertained the notion of just quitting. After all, this is my blog. I write what I want, and am under no obligation to continue banging my head against a brick wall for no reason. I am not getting paid for this, as I have mentioned numerous times. But the truth is that I am generally not a quitter. The book of Proverbs tells that “Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall. Better to be of a humble spirit with the lowly, than to divide the spoil with the proud.” The football gods have humbled me, but I will move forward. Last week I went 2-7, with a few of those losses being games where I picked the right winner but they did not cover the spread. Overall for the season I am now a horrifying 19-34. Nothing much I can say to defend that.

 

 

 

 

LSU (-3.5)        at         Texas A&M

When picking South Carolina to defeat LSU last week I did say that “LSU might have finally gotten the wake-up call they needed” when they lost to Florida the previous Saturday. I was on the right track I guess. Meanwhile, the Aggies have quietly gone 5-1 in their inaugural SEC season, with the only blemish being a narrow loss to Florida in the first week of the season. Two things jump out at me here. First of all, the game is in College Station. Secondly, it is more than possible that the Bayou Bengals could suffer the proverbial “hangover” or letdown after such a huge win last week. One must also wonder whether LSU could be looking ahead to a showdown with #1 Alabama next week. It is for these reasons that I think this’ll be a real dogfight. Which is the real LSU?? Is it the team that destroyed the Gamecocks last week, or is it the team that struggled to beat Towson and Auburn?? The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, and that is enough for me to predict the upset. Go Aggies!!

 

 

Iowa State      at         Oklahoma State (-13.5)

I didn’t think the Cyclones stood a chance against Kansas St. last week, but even though they lost it was by less than a touchdown. Oklahoma St. has been a rather prosaic 3-2 thus far, and are very surprising favorites in this game. I understand the concept of a home field advantage, but 13.5 points?? I don’t think so. The Cowboys might win, but it’ll be much closer than that.

 

 

Nebraska (-4.5)          at         Northwestern

The race for the Big 10 title is intriguing. Two of the top teams in the conference, Ohio St. & Penn St., are both ineligible for the crown and won’t be participating in postseason play. That really opens things up for other squads. Unfortunately for these two teams they play in the other division of the Big 10, meaning the woes of Pedophile St. & Tattoo St. are meaningless because they still must contend with Iowa and Michigan to go anywhere. The Wildcats have been impressive while going 6-1, and Nebraska less so while amassing their 4-2 record. If Northwestern wants to prove that they really belong at the big table with the good teams they have to win this game. It is telling that the oddsmakers have made the Cornhuskers the favorites, because it indicates that they really aren’t buying Northwestern as legitimate contenders. Wrestling legend Ric Flair used to say “To be the man you have to beat the man”, which is true. I am going to go way out on a limb here and take Northwestern to defy the odds, beat the man, and prove that they are legit.

 

 

South Carolina           at         Florida (-3)

We all know what happened to South Carolina last week at the hands of LSU, but I think it is way too soon to count out the Gamecocks, who only lost that game by 2 points. I personally haven’t given Florida much respect this season, but they have been impressive compiling a 6-0 record and skyrocketing to 2nd in the BCS rankings, meaning that if they win out they will play for the national championship. This game is at The Swamp, which explains the 3 point spread. Actually I am surprised it isn’t bigger. This game is also a big one for coach Steve Spurrier, who I am sure everyone will remember played & coached at Florida. I just don’t believe that Spurrier will let his team lose two weeks in a row. I think RB Marcus Lattimore will have a huge game, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is a beast who I think will be spending a lot of time in the Gators’ backfield en route to a huge South Carolina victory.

 

 

Seattle                        at                     San Francisco (-7)

Are the 4-2 Seattle Seahawks for real?? What is wrong with the 4-2 49ers?? It is fascinating that we can look at two teams with identical records thru such vastly different prisms. Much was expected from San Francisco this season, and they really haven’t delivered as fully as most thought they would. Conversely, no one expected anything from Seattle and they have over delivered in a big way. I still think Frisco is the better team and will eventually win the division easily, but Seattle might atleast remain in the discussion for a wildcard spot. As far as this particular game goes, it is the Thursday night NFL Network game, and I’d be shocked if the 49ers didn’t respond…strongly…to last weekend’s loss to the NY Giants. Seattle will suffer the classic letdown after a tremendous win over the New England Patriots and lose this game by double digits.

 

 

Washington   at         NY Giants (-7)

So far it looks like the choice of QB Robert Griffin III in the 1st round of the draft was an excellent move. I couldn’t name a single wide receiver or running back on the Redskins’ roster, but it doesn’t matter. RGIII has singlehandedly re-energized the team and its entire fanbase. Meanwhile, the defending Super Bowl champion Giants are just plodding along at 4-2, neither looking like world beaters nor totally sucking. Because Griffin had such a standout effort last week I am picking the Giants this week. Rookie QBs are nothing if not inconsistent, and I just don’t think RGIII will shine again so soon. I believe he will be neutralized by the Giants’ pass rush, led by Mathias Kiwanuka & Jason Pierre Paul, and the Giants running game will dominate the time of possession.

 

 

Arizona           at         Minnesota (-6)

Two of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season go head-to-head. The Cardinals come into this game 4-2 with a share of the lead in the NFC West. The Vikings got victimized by RGIII last Sunday but are still a respectable 4-2. I feel like this is a total pick ‘em game, but the edge comes from the rushing attack. We don’t know who’ll tote the rock for Arizona, because their RBs keep getting injured. Conversely, the Vikings can count on the reliable Adrian Petersen, who isn’t averaging big numbers in 2012 but is a steady force that enables WR Percy Harvin to get open for big plays. That’s the difference and why I am picking Minnesota.

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 7

I’m feeling a little frisky this week, and you know what that means…bonus picks!! Last week I was a respectable 4-3, with Florida, South Carolina, New England, & New Orleans all pulling through for me. Stanford won but didn’t cover the spread, while Air Force and the Buffalo Bills just plain stunk up the joint and made me look like a fool. Ah well…c’est la vie. My overall record for the season stands at 17-27, and I don’t expect to make up that deficit in one fell swoop, although one can hope.

 

 

 

 

Louisville (-3)         at            Pitt

What has happened to the Pitt Panthers?? While my WV Mountaineers have moved on to The Big 12 and are enjoying a fine season & a Top 5 ranking, Pitt is languishing in mediocrity with a record of 2-3. Meanwhile Louisville, who I ranked 20th in my pre-season Top 25, cruises into this game 5-0. It is telling that the oddsmakers are giving the edge to the Cardinals despite the fact that they are playing in Pittsburgh. Heinz Field may be a big advantage on Sundays for the Steelers, but on Saturdays the good citizens of The Burgh couldn’t seem to possibly care less about the Panthers and find other things to do rather than attend a football game. I’d be very surprised to see an upset, although I suppose anything is possible. Louisville has done nothing to dissuade my belief in them and I think they win easily.

 

 

Texas                    vs.          Oklahoma (-3)

Ahhh…The Red River Shootout…one of the best rivalries in college football. The Longhorns are 4-1 but coming off of a disappointing loss to WVU. Oklahoma is 3-1, with the only blemish being a disappointing loss to Kansas St. This game takes place at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, TX, meaning it’s not really a home game for either team. It really is a neutral site, with both campuses being about 200 miles away. Both teams probably expected and certainly atleast hoped to be undefeated coming into this contest, but since that isn’t the case I guess the question is who has the momentum. And to me the other question is whether or not Texas will lose two weeks in a row. I watched the Texas/WV game, and it was a dogfight. Just because the Longhorns lost doesn’t mean they aren’t a very good team. I haven’t had the opportunity to watch the Sooners play this season, and I am sure they are extremely talented as well, but my vibes are saying that Texas will win an exciting & competitive game.

 

 

Kansas St. (-7)        at            Iowa St.

Kansas St. is one of the biggest surprises of the season thus far, as they are 5-0 and ranked in the Top 10. Meanwhile the Cyclones aren’t too shabby themselves, coming into this game 4-1. I don’t know enough about these teams to intelligently comment on the ins & outs or strengths & weaknesses of either. Like most of my fellow Mountaineer fans I am a novice when it comes to the intricacies of The Big 12 and just learning as I go along. I do recall that the Cyclones had a huge upset over Oklahoma State last year when the Cowboys were the #2 team in the nation. And I know that Wildcats’ head coach Bill Snyder has been around a long long…long time. I suppose it is possible that Kansas St. could be “looking ahead” to a Top 5 matchup next week in Morgantown against the Mountaineers, but that is precisely why I would love to see the Wildcats win this one. Iowa State’s 2011 defeat of Oklahoma St. actually works against them here because no one will take them lightly or overlook them. Therefore I must go with Kansas St. to win & cover here.

 

 

Stanford              at            Notre Dame (-8)

Stanford is 4-1 and coming off of a rather close call against Arizona. The Irish are sailing along at 5-0 and enjoying their best season in recent memory. Brian Kelly is an excellent coach and it seems like he finally has things figured out in South Bend, although the musical chairs being played between QBs Everett Golson & Tommy Rees is a cause for concern and I believe will eventually become an issue. The point spread gives me pause because I have a feeling this might be a pretty close game. However, I am going to bite the bullet and go with Notre Dame. I’ll probably regret it.

 

 

South Carolina           at            LSU (-2.5)

The Gamecocks opened up a can of whoopass on the Georgia Bulldogs last week en route to a 6-0 record and a Top 5 ranking. Conversely, the other shoe finally dropped for LSU when they lost to Florida, a loss quite a few people saw coming a mile away. These are simply two teams headed in opposite directions. However, circumstances might be conducive for an “upset” (even though LSU is favored). South Carolina could conceivably suffer the classic letdown after winning such a big game, and LSU might have finally gotten the wake-up call they needed. That’d be the conventional wisdom anyway. But you know what?? To heck with conventional wisdom. I picked South Carolina to win the SEC and I am sticking with that choice. I’ll go with Spurrier’s Gamecocks here. I hope I don’t regret this one too.

 

 

Indianapolis       at            NY Jets (-3)

All the talking heads can yap about this week is whether or not it is finally Tebow Time in New York. No one seems to care that rookie QB Andrew Luck led his team to a huge upset of the Green Bay Packers last week. Regardless of whether or not Rex Ryan pulls the plug on QB March Sanchez and gives Tebow a whirl, the fact is that the Jets are a mess. A big freakin’ 2-3 mess. Sure the Colts are only 2-2 themselves, but I suspect the mood in Indy is far more jovial than in The Big Apple. The Colts are of course dealing with the health issues of head coach Chuck Pagano that has necessitated offensive coordinator Bruce Arians becoming the interim coach, but such adversity tends to motivate & galvanize a team. A win here for Indianapolis would add to the early success of Luck, while a Jets loss might seal the fate of Sanchez. As much as I would love to see the former occur, I shudder at the consequences of the latter. I think Sanchez lives to fight another day, while the legend of Luck will take just a little longer to build. I hesitantly choose the Jets.

 

 

Detroit                                 at            Philadelphia (-5)

I honestly thought Detroit would atleast be in the playoff conversation this year. Instead they find themselves 1-3 and at the bottom of what has suddenly become quite a competitive division. The Eagles certainly haven’t been boring thus far, winning three games by a total of 4 points, and losing last week to my Steelers on a last second field goal. I haven’t watched a Lions game yet, but I know that their running game is a mess and someone else besides Calvin Johnson needs to become a pass receiving threat. I am not feeling an upset here and will pick Philly to win, this time by a comfortable enough margin to cover the spread.

 

 

Dallas                    at            Baltimore (-3.5)

The Ravens are 4-1 and as good as advertised, although I’m not sure what in the world happened last week in Kansas City when they won a 9-6 snoozefest against the Chiefs. Dallas is a 2-2 hot mess, what with QB Tony Romo’s penchant for choking in big games & throwing passes to the other team’s players. Having said that, I must confess that if this game were being held at the palatial Jerry Jones shrine in Irving, TX I might have to ponder the possibilities. However, the game just so happens to be taking place in Baltimore, so that makes things considerably easier. I think Baltimore wins & covers without breaking a sweat.

 

 

Green Bay           at            Houston (-3.5)

This is the Sunday night game on NBC. I told you that they get all the cool games now…Monday Night Football is so yesterday (somewhere Hank Williams Jr. has a big ol’ grin on his face). This would be a lot more intriguing if the Packers had held up their end of the bargain and come into the game undefeated like their opponents. Unfortunately for cheeseheads everywhere their team has looked pretty ordinary so far in compiling a shockingly subpar 2-3 record. It’d even be more interesting if the game was being played on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. However, the Texans are hosting this party and have looked pretty unstoppable thru 5 games. I think Green Bay will eventually get things figured out and still believe that they’ll win their division and go to the playoffs. However, I don’t think that breakthrough will come this week, and I am confident that Houston will win & cover.

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 6

 

The old saying is that “close only counts in horseshoes & hand grenades”, and I am not a big believer in moral victories anyway. However, I must say that I came oh so close to going 4-3 last week but instead ended up 2-5. Usually I get myself in trouble when I pick with my heart instead of my head, but as it turns out picking the hated Hokies of Virginia Tech over the Cincinnati Bearcats was a bad idea. I was also very disappointed in the effort of Michigan St. RB La’veon Bell, a potential Heisman candidate who I thought would do some damage to Ohio St. but was instead held to a paltry 45 yards in a loss. And maybe it’s time to jump on board the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon. Of course as soon as I do that they’ll start to look like…well…the Minnesota Vikings. At any rate, for the season I am at 13-24, a deficit that cannot be made up in one week. In other words, I am like a football team that is down atleast two scores. But since I am more of a ground & pound guy instead of a run & shoot aficionado I’ll just hunker down, grind it out, and dig out of the hole one week at a time.

 

 

 

Arizona                at            Stanford (-9.5)

Stanford wasn’t even on my radar at the beginning of the season. I just figured that they’d fade a bit after losing QB Andrew Luck and a few other pieces to the NFL. Instead they have gone 3-1, complete with a victory over media darling USC. They stumbled last week at Washington, but I will assume that was just a hangover loss after the high of defeating the Trojans in the previous game. I also looked over Arizona from the outset because it usually takes Fraudriguez a couple of years to install his offensive scheme. However, the Wildcats have looked more than decent thus far in compiling a 3-2 record. This game marks the halfway point of a murderer’s row of 6 straight ranked opponents for Arizona, and I think maybe now we’ll see what we usually see in inaugural Fraudriguez seasons. Stanford may possibly be looking ahead to a matchup at Notre Dame next week, but otherwise they hold all the cards here so I am picking them to win and cover.

 

 

Navy                      at            Air Force (-8.5)

I really like watching the service academies play football. Maybe it’s the fact that they aren’t the big, athletic NFL prospects that we see on so many other teams. They are legitimate student athletes who retain the essence of what amateur sports should be. Or maybe it is the knowledge that these young men truly have a higher purpose and will all go on to do something meaningful and, to varying degrees, heroic with their lives. And I suppose it has a lot to do with the old-fashioned style of football played. Navy is 1-3 and among the top 25 rushing teams in the nation. Of course they rank near the bottom in passing yards & points scored, so I guess they need to mix it up a little more. Air Force leads the nation in rushing and is near the bottom of the barrel in passing yards, but they are averaging 37 points per game. Their defense has really let them down though, so they are only 2-2. I expect to see lots of running here, and probably a high score. I’ll take the Falcons to get the victory and cover the spread.

 

 

LSU (-2.5)            at            Florida

I have picked two favorites thus far. Will the trend continue??

In my pre-season Top 25 I put the Bayou Bengals at #17 with the logic that they have a target on their backs and opponents will be especially psyched to take them down. That has been true so far…kind of. LSU is 5-0 and ranked 4th in the polls, but they have slipped a spot each of the past two weeks after lackluster victories over Auburn and Towson. A subpar effort won’t cut it this week though against the 10th ranked 4-0 Gators, who have been impressive in wins over Texas A&M, Tennessee, & Kentucky. So this looks like a contest of two undefeated & highly ranked teams that are going in opposite directions…one on the rise, and the other on the verge of being knocked down a peg or two. The boys in Vegas apparently didn’t get that memo since they have made LSU slight favorites even though they are venturing into decidedly unfriendly territory at The Swap. I think that is the difference here. I just can’t have much faith in a team that struggles to beat Towson and is now faced with the daunting task of playing a Top 10 team in one of the most…spirited…venues in college football. Florida gets the upset.

 

 

Georgia                at            South Carolina (-1.5)

I suppose it isn’t all that shocking that we get the pleasure of seeing two SEC teams face one other who happen to be 2 of the top 6 teams in the country. The ESPN Gameday crew will be in Columbia slobbering all over themselves and fellatiating the SEC, but as much as I hate to say it the praise has been earned. Both teams come into this game undefeated and in the hunt for a national championship, but at the end of the day one of them will pretty much out of the running. The Gamecocks are slim favorites only because of the home field advantage. I picked South Carolina #3 in my preseason rankings, while I left the Bulldogs off the board entirely. The latter may have been a mistake, and this game will decide if the former was an egregious error as well. I don’t think it was. I stand behind my choice and will go with South Carolina here.

 

 

Denver                                 at            New England (-6.5)

Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. That’s enough to sell this matchup. Brady leads the rivalry 8-4, and unfortunately I think he’ll extend the lead this week. I picked both of these teams to make the playoffs and the Patriots to make The Super Bowl. At this point I am not ready to back off of either prediction, but will say that both teams have looked much more…ordinary…than I thought they would. That being said, I think right now New England is a more complete team and Manning is still knocking off some rust. It makes me physically ill to pick the Patriots, but I think they’ll win and cover.

 

 

Buffalo                                 at            San Francisco (-9.5)

Who would have thought at this stage that the 49ers would NOT be in 1st place in their division?? Though they are 3-1 they are behind the undefeated Arizona Cardinals (although as I write this it looks like the Cardinals are going to lose their game). A stunning defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings left the football world abuzz, but I think it is much ado about nothing. If anything it just means that the Vikings are a lot better than we thought, but it almost certainly doesn’t indicate that San Francisco won’t be as awesome the remainder of the season as most of us believed they would. Buffalo currently sits in a 2-2 logjam in the AFC East and needs to do anything possibly to keep pace with the aforementioned Patriots, who are undoubtedly better than their record. I think this will be a defensive struggle, and the spread makes me a little nervous. San Francisco should win, but by how much?? Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent at best, but has occasional flashes of being an actual NFL quarterback. Will he have a good week?? Word on the street is that both of Buffalo’s banged up running backs…Fred Jackson & CJ Spiller…will be ready to go for this game, but I’m not sure how much that’ll help against San Francisco’s stout run defense. I guess it can’t hurt, right?? But I really think it comes down to the play of Fitzpatrick. My vibes are telling me that Buffalo will study the SF/Minnesota game film and figure out a way to atleast keep this close, so I am picking the Bills.

 

 

San Diego            at            New Orleans (-4)

Anyone who read my NFL Preview might recall that I said “I do not believe that a team can go through the turmoil that the Saints have experienced this offseason and not be affected.” That might be the wisest prognostication I’ve made all season. But not even I thought they’d start the year 0-4. Will they drop to 0-5?? I also predicted that the Chargers would go 6-10 and said that “the party is over in San Diego and head coach Norv Turner will soon be enjoying an early retirement”. That hasn’t been so accurate thus far, as the Chargers are 3-1 and in 1st place. Are these trends solid or just a mirage?? I’ll go with the latter. I don’t think New Orleans is THIS bad, nor do I believe San Diego is that good. I think the Saints win & cover here, and I still think they can make it to the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

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Just Another Losing Season…or Not

Oops…they did it again. They played with my heart. They lost a lot of games. But hey, I should have known better so I’m not completely innocent.

 

One year ago today I wrote here in this space that there was reason for optimism but that I had very little faith that the front office of the Pittsburgh Pirates is capable of putting together a winning team. I begged them to prove me wrong. They didn’t.

 

Oh sure they had a lot of folks fooled for awhile…even me. On August 8, 2012 the Pirates were 16 games over .500 and in the thick of the hunt for an NL wild card. It looked like the worst case scenario was a 3rd place division finish, narrowly losing out on a playoff berth, and finishing with a winning record for the first time since the Bush 41 administration. I think most fans could have lived with that. I wrote back in the middle of July that “I just hope they don’t fold like a cheap suit like they did in 2011”, but also apprehensively noted that the general consensus seemed to be that that would not happen. The general consensus was wrong. I began to get a bad feeling in the middle of August when the Pirates dropped 2 out of 3 to the San Diego Padres, a team even worse than the Buccos, at PNC Park. Then they lost 3 out of 4 to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Less than a week later they were swept by the Padres in San Diego. That’s when I knew it was over. Winners don’t lose games they are supposed to win. That is how quickly it all fell apart…within two weeks. I thought the past 19 years had been painful, but now I am not sure which is worse…knowing for sure that a team is horrible and has no chance to be competitive, or believing there is a chance for some small sliver of success only to see it inexplicably implode.

 

So now even the “worst case scenario” isn’t happening. The Pirates will finish 2012 with a losing record for the 20th straight season. They will finish in 4th place in their division. There are individual bright spots. Outfielder Andrew McCutchen is a star who is going to narrowly lose the National League batting title. The long awaited debut season of young OF Starling Marte has given fans reason for optimism. Pitchers Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole are still in the minors, but I would not be shocked to see them both on the big club sometime in 2013. However, at this point it is difficult to get excited about anything when it comes to the Pirates. There seems to be something systemically wrong. I used to blame owner Kevin McClatchy, but new owner (since 2007) Bob Nutting has been only marginally more successful. I used to blame managers, of which there have been several in the past two decades (Jim Leyland, Gene Lamont, Lloyd McClendon, Jim Tracy, John Russell, and now Clint Hurdle). But Leyland (who did lead the Pirates to three straight NLCS before Barry Bonds left Pittsburgh and all this futility began) has gone on to be quite successful with the Detroit Tigers (where McClendon and Lamont are on his staff), even leading them to one World Series. He also led the Florida Marlins to the World Series championship in 1997. Jim Tracy now manages the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are about as good as the Pirates these days, but back in 2009 in Tracy’s first year they were good enough to get him named NL Manager of the Year. The evidence seems to support the idea that it doesn’t matter how good a manager is…he cannot be successful in Pittsburgh. One cannot help but wonder which lucky team will win a World Series with Clint Hurdle at the helm after his inevitable departure from the Pirates.

 

I don’t buy the “small market” excuse either. The Pirates have always been one of the least wealthy teams in MLB, yet they still won World Series in 1909, 1925, 1960, 1971, and 1979. They have won multiple division crowns and league pennants. Other small market teams like Oakland, Tampa Bay, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and Seattle have all been more competitive than  Pittsburgh the past two decades.

 

The question then is…if it isn’t ownership, management, or the economics of baseball, then what the hell is the problem?? Why haven’t the Pittsburgh Pirates been able to put together atleast a couple of successful, winning seasons in the past 20 years?? Dear Lord…even a broken clock is right twice a day for Pete’s sake!!

 

Quite honestly I don’t know the answer, and I am not inclined to waste time & energy trying to figure it out. One of the saddest things I see on TV is the sight of post-game analysts Kent Tekulve (who was one heck of a closer in his day) & Paul Alexander, not to mention game announcers Tim Neverett, Bob Walk, Greg Brown, John Wehner, & Steve Blass, trying to resolutely stay professional & upbeat while continuously having to explain away the latest loss and point out anything remotely positive. Holy cow that job has to totally suck. I mean really…how does one come up with the words to put an optimistic spin on a loss 82+ TIMES?? One of these days when someone asks a goofy question on the Ask Teke segment of the post-game show I half expect Tekulve to go postal, throwing down his microphone and screaming “What the hell do you want me to say?? There’s nothing more I can say!! They suck!! This is not a major league team!!”. That would be the most entertaining thing I’ve seen on a Pirates broadcast since 1992, which of course means it’ll never happen.

 

Unfortunately the Pirates have the nicest baseball stadium in the country and fans keep flocking to it, meaning the owners are making a profit each year despite losing a ton of games. As long as that is the case I doubt very seriously any kind of significant money will be spent for any major upgrades. That means, fellow Pirates fans, that what you see is what you are going to get for the foreseeable future. The only hope we have is that the young players they have drafted develop into legitimate stars. Can a team with McCutchen, Marte, Taillon, & Cole and a bunch of role players right the ship?? I’m not holding my breath. I think they need atleast two more position players who can hit and one additional pitcher, and the powers-that-be have demonstrated an inability to make good trades and an unwillingness to sign anything other than subpar bench warmers in free agency. A pattern is beginning to develop. The PR machine will try to get the fanbase excited in the spring (“This is our year!!”). The team will show signs of life clear thru July and maybe into August. And then the inevitable implosion will happen, complete with lame excuses like “So & so got inured” or “The pitchers arms got tired”. Lather, rinse, repeat. I hate to say this ladies & gentlemen, but after 20 years we might only be halfway thru this losing streak. I hope I am wrong, but I honestly don’t think I am. I’ll say what I said one year ago to the Pirates brass…prove me wrong. I don’t think you can.

 

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 5

 

Well…atleast last week I upgraded back to mediocrity from the depths of ineptitude that plagued my previous effort. That’s my lame effort to polish another turd anyway. I went 4-5. I suppose the good news is that at this point some trends in both college football & the NFL are beginning to emerge, and we are starting to get a better idea of which teams are truly good and which ones aren’t likely to cut the mustard in 2012. I am confident that this knowledge will help me significantly improve my 11-19 record, as long as I can minimize my propensity for making off-the-wall choices. The fact is that my vibes are about as accurate as a Tim Tebow pass across the middle, and I am man enough to admit it. At any rate, let’s talk football and make some picks!!

 

 

 

Tennessee          at            Georgia (-15.5)

Now the real season begins. The Vols come into this game 3-1, but like a lot of other college teams they haven’t played anybody. Ditto for the Bulldogs, who are 4-0 and ranked #5 in the polls. In my pre-season rankings I put Tennessee at #12 and left Georgia unranked. Was I right, or am I insane?? This game might decide that. To be honest, I’d be very surprised if Tennessee actually won. Georgia is as good as most of the pundits said they would be before the season began. My supposition that there are such a plethora of good teams in the SEC that someone has to be left on the outside looking in is very likely true, but it looks like the Bulldogs won’t be that team. However, I find the spread on this game interesting. The only legitimate piece of evidence we have to examine is Tennessee’s loss to Florida a couple of weeks ago, in which they were beaten by 17 points, and that isn’t really any help. So do I go with the experts, or do I go with my unreliable vibes?? There is an element of pride here wherein I just cannot bring myself to abandon what was a risky pre-season pick. The Vols may not win this game, but I have the backs of my boys from Rocky Top and will assume they have enough testicular fortitude to be competitive and cover the spread.

 

 

Ohio State          at            Michigan State (-1)

Ohio St. is 4-0 and ranked among the top 20, even though they are ineligible for post-season play. The Spartans are 3-1, having defeated Boise St. and two cupcakes while falling to the hated Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. The Buckeyes have looked less than impressive in narrow victories over Cal & UAB the past two weeks, so they are going to have to wake up and realize they are playing a real opponent now. Michigan St. is a slight favorite only because of the home field advantage. I really like young OSU signal caller Braxton Miller, but I’m not impressed with their defense. Michigan St. RB Le’veon Bell is a native of a small Columbus, OH suburb but wasn’t recruited by Ohio St. One thing I love about college football is that little things like that can be important. Bell is averaging 150 yards/game, and though I don’t expect he’ll be quite that successful this week I do believe he’ll make an impact. That’s enough for me to pick Michigan St.

 

 

Virginia Tech (-6)             vs.          Cincinnati

The Hokies come into this contest 3-1 and giving off mixed signals. They defeated Georgia Tech in overtime but inexplicably lost to the horrible Pitt Panthers a couple weeks ago. I picked the Bearcats #11 in my pre-season poll  with the logic that someone has to win The Big East, and thus far they are 2-0 and coming off a rather early bye week. Cincinnati, by the way, beat the same Pitt team that defeated Virginia Tech. I would really love to pick Cincinnati here, not only because I put them in my Top 25 but also because I have always had a robust disdain for Virginia Tech. However, the game is in Blacksburg and I find it difficult to believe that they’ll lose two games in a row. Coming out of a bye should mean the Bearcats are healthy, well rested, and full of energy. If the game was in Cincy or the spread was larger I’d go with my heart, but neither of things is true so I am forced to hold my nose and pick the hated Hokies.

 

 

Texas (-2)            at            Oklahoma State

West Virginia Mountaineer fans might be fully focused on their inaugural Big 12 game against Baylor, but they should take note of this matchup of two future foes. One team will move forward in its quest for the conference title, while the loser of this game is very likely out of the running pretty darn quickly. Texas is trying to rebound from two straight subpar seasons and thus far have looked more like the old successful Longhorns that we are all used to rather than whoever those impostors were the past couple of years. Oklahoma St. has beaten two cupcakes and lost to Arizona, leading the nation in points scored along the way. I picked both teams to sneak into the Top 25 in my pre-season poll, and that could still happen, but the winner here will certainly have a leg up. I am mildly surprised that the visitors are the favorites, even though it is only a 2 point spread. I almost always go with the home team in these situations, and there is a huge question as to whether or not Texas is truly “back” after the way they have played in recent years. That question may not be fully answered this week, but we’ll get a good idea. The vibes are literally having an argument in my head about this one and I really feel like it’s a tossup. But hey, I have to pick someone, right?? I guess I will play it safe and choose the Longhorns, but no outcome will surprise me all that much.

 

 

Minnesota          at            Detroit (-4.5)

I know the NFL values parity, but this season has been ridiculous. At this point I wouldn’t be shocked if the playoffs are chock full of 8-8 teams. I don’t think anyone foresaw the Vikings upset of San Francisco last week, which made Minnesota 2-1. Meanwhile, the evolution of the Lions from pretenders to contenders seems to have stalled a bit, as they come into this game 1-2, although to be fair they barely lost last week to Tennessee in overtime. Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson is kinda sorta back from a knee injury, but he has yet to break 100 yards in a game this season. Detroit might have found its answer at RB with the long awaited debut of Mikel Leshoure, who gained 100 yards in his first NFL game last week. In my mind this matchup comes down to one thing: Matthew Stafford & Calvin Johnson vs. Christian Ponder & Percy Harvin. Whoever hits the big plays will win. I don’t think the Vikings can duplicate their tremendous effort from last week, so I’ll go with the home team favorites.

 

 

Chicago                at            Dallas (-3.5)

This is the Monday night game this week. Both teams are 2-1 and haven’t given fans any inclination one way or another who they really are. Bears’ QB Jay Cutler is a mediocre headcase with loads of unrealized potential. The entire Cowboys franchise is a mediocre headcase with loads of unrealized potential. Seriously…every single year multiple talking heads pick both of these teams to do great things, and every year both teams fall way short of expectations. At this point I’m not sure why anyone cares. Both of these teams are teams that people watch their games to see whoever their opponent is. A game pitting the two of them against each other is like two second-rate and largely disappointing worlds colliding. It’s like watching a movie with a bunch of character actors and no leading men. But I guess I have to pick someone. Honestly I’d have more fun skipping this choice and watching The Weather Channel. In my NFL preview I predicted the Bears to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs, while I said the Cowboys would go 10-6 and be a wildcard. I suppose that one game difference is this one, so I’ll pick Dallas.

 

 

San Diego (1.5)                 at            Kansas City

The Chargers come into this game 2-1, while the Chiefs are 1-2. I would have thought it’d be the other way around. Kansas City leads the NFL in rushing, but that statistic is misleading since it is largely based on RB Jamaal Charles gaining a whopping 233 yards last week in a huge overtime victory over the New Orleans Saints. San Diego is 4th in the NFL in rushing defense, so something will have to give here. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, which in recent years has become a much more entertaining product than ESPN’s Monday night offering. That obviously has nothing to do with the actual game, although I am guessing that teams might get energized by being the prime time center of attention. At any rate, the winner here will gain a small advantage in the race for the AFC West division crown, so it is far from a meaningless game. In my NFL preview I said the Chargers would go 6-10 and head coach Norv Turner would soon be unemployed, while I picked Kansas City to sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard. I guess I should stand behind my own predictions, so I’ll go with the underdog Chiefs.

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

 

The less said about last week the better. I went 1-6, with my only “win” a Pyrrhic victory at best (Philly beat Baltimore by 1 point, not covering the 2 point spread and making my choice of the Ravens technically correct). So, in classic mid-life crisis fashion I have decided to overcompensate. My record for the season thus far stands at 7-14, and even though I have absolutely nothing riding on these picks except my own pride I feel compelled to try to improve my winning percentage. Plus when I looked at this week’s slate of games that seemed interesting I just couldn’t narrow it down to 7. Therefore you get bonus picks today!! Don’t you feel blessed??

 

 

 

BYU                                       at                            Boise St. (-7.5)

I had both of these teams ranked in my pre-season Top 25, the Cougars at #10 & the Broncos at #25. Thus far the results have been mixed. BYU stands at 2-1 while Boise St. is 1-1, and neither is ranked although a couple of victories could change that status quickly. This is a total vibe game for me. I feel like Boise is declining while BYU is on the rise. Both are usually underdogs when going up against highly regarded power conference competition like Notre Dame or Michigan St., but against one another they seem pretty evenly matched on paper. The Voices are screaming loudly on this one, and they are telling me to go with the underdog BYU, so that’s what I’ll do.

 

 

Kentucky                             at                            Florida (-24.5)

I have no doubt that the Gators will win this game. The question is will they cover the spread?? UK enters the contest an unimpressive 1-2, while the Gators are not only 3-0 but have actually played competitive opponents like Texas A&M and Tennessee. However, in their one “cupcake” game Florida, while victorious, only beat Bowling Green by 13 points. That seems significant, and gives me no reason to believe that they can whip a team…even the lowly Wildcats…by 3+ touchdowns. Therefore, even though I think they’ll lose the game, I’m picking Kentucky to cover the spread.

 

 

Missouri                              at                            South Carolina (-10)

The Tigers didn’t fare so well in their SEC debut a couple of weeks ago, getting hammered by the Georgia Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Steve Spurrier looks like he has the Gamecocks firing on all cylinders, though it must be pointed out that at 3-0 they haven’t really been tested by a strong opponent thus far. I think South Carolina easily passes this first test, while Missouri’s rough welcome tour continues.

 

 

California                            at                            USC (-16)

The talking heads and other pundits all had the Trojans at the top of their rankings as early as last spring. Yours truly didn’t buy the hype and placed them at #7 in my pre-season Top 25. I must admit that I didn’t think it’d be Stanford that crushed USC’s national title hopes, but that’s exactly what occurred last weekend. That’s probably bad news for the 1-2 Cal Golden Bears, because an angry home team isn’t someone you want to go up against. However, the question again is will the Trojans cover what is a pretty hefty spread?? Another factor that must be considered is the Bears’ state-of-mind after coming oh-so-close only to fall short against Ohio State last week. I think the timing is very bad for the underdogs and extremely good for the favorites, who I am picking to win & cover.

 

 

Michigan                             at                            Notre Dame (-6)

This will be one of the centerpiece games on Saturday night’s prime time slate. Both teams are ranked in the Top 20, with Notre Dame coming in a not all that shocking 3-0 for the first time in a decade, while the Wolverines are 2-1 but lost to the only legitimate opponent they have faced so far (#1 Alabama). The 2011 contest between these two was a classic, with three TDs being scored in the final minute & a half, the last one a game winning pass from Michigan QB Denard Robinson. We should all be so blessed to see such another exciting game this year, but that may be a bit too much to ask. I will probably regret this, but I’m going to pick Michigan here. As long as Robinson is still running the show the Wolverines can never be counted out.

 

 

Arizona                                                at                            Oregon (-23.5)

Have the boys in Vegas not been paying attention?? Yes, the high powered Oregon offense has averaged 54 points per game in route to a 3-0 record. But they haven’t played anyone!! Meanwhile, as much as I hate to give Fraudriguez even one iota of credit, it must be said that the Wildcats have looked pretty good in averaging 46 points per game and going 3-0 themselves, including a big victory over Oklahoma State. So I am more than a bit surprised that the Ducks have been made 3+ touchdown favorites. I could understand 8…maybe 10…even 12…but 23 & a half?? That seems a bit shady to me. Either Oregon has built up a lot of respect in the course of their recent success, or strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Either way I’m not buying what they are trying to sell. I think this’ll be a really good, high scoring, eminently entertaining game. Oregon deserves to be the favorites and will likely win, but not by that much. I’ll take Arizona.

 

 

NY Giants (-1.5)                                at                            Carolina

The Giants have gotten a lot of media attention this week due to Coach Coughlin’s temper tantrum over Tampa’s odd end-of-game tactics last weekend, but that isn’t going to help them against Cam Newton. In my NFL prognostications I picked Carolina to go all the way to the NFC championship game, and this would be the perfect game to announce their presence to the world. Both teams are 1-1 (as is over 60% of the league), so this is the time to make a statement and get things headed in a positive direction. It’s still very early, but the difference between 1-2 and 2-1 should not be undervalued. New York will be without the services of RB Ahmad Bradshaw, and Carolina will have the home field in front a captive audience for an NFL Network Thursday night broadcast. Newton has already had his “coming out party” and is no secret at this point, but I think it would be accurate to say that the masses have bought into just him and not his team. This is a golden opportunity to change that and I think the Panthers will take advantage of it.

 

 

Houston (-2)                      at                            Denver

Is Peyton Manning back?? Well, at first we thought the answer was a resounding yes. But then last week was a huge “not so fast my friend” kind of thing. There are whispers that Manning cannot yet throw the ball deep. If that is the case then smart defensive coordinators will take advantage of it with a variety of blitzes daring him to launch downfield to receivers in single coverage. However, if the Broncos can construct the game plan in such a way that the long ball isn’t necessary then it may be a moot point. Houston is 2-0, but really how much can be gleaned from the fact that they’ve beaten up on the Miami Dolphins & Jacksonville Jaguars?? That’s the NFL equivalent to defeating two directional schools from 1-AA. I think the altitude in Denver combined with an angry & determined Peyton Manning spells doom for the Texans.

 

 

New England                     at                            Baltimore (-3)

This is a preview of my projected AFC championship game. The Ravens looked impressive crushing the Cincinnati Bengals in week one, but last week they got outyanked in the final two minutes by the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots also started out well, easily beating the Tennessee Titans a couple of weeks ago,yet last week they needed 10 points in the final 7 minutes to make a loss to the Arizona Cardinals look close. As much as I would LOVE to see pretty boy Tom Brady go down in flames twice in a row I just don’t think that’s going to happen. If the Cardinals would have played along and lost last week like they were supposed to I might have been tempted to go with Baltimore here given the home field advantage, but since I am thoroughly convinced that Bill Belichick is some sort of evil robot from the future sent back in time to wreak havoc on the NFL I think the Patriots will be out to make a statement after last week’s shocking loss and will win going away.

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 3

 

I’m a day or two late this week with picks, probably because I am still trying to block out the memory of last week’s debacle.  I had been hopeful that I’d get better at this whole thing as we moved forward, but the second go ‘round was definitely a step back, as I went 2-5. The 49ers & Maryland Terrapins, both underdogs that I picked to win, bailed me out a little by rewarding my confidence. However, I was way wrong on my other picks. I picked Texas A&M, Nevada, Missouri, Oklahoma St., and the Buffalo Bills all to win. All lost. Not much to say about the situation other than I’ll just have to do better this week.

Last week                            2-5

Season                                 6-8

 

 

 

Alabama (-20)                   at            Arkansas

The Tide is rolling into Fayetteville 2-0, while the Razorbacks are 1-1 and reeling from the last weekend’s upset loss in overtime to Louisiana-Monroe. I have no doubt that ‘Bama will win. I have a sneaking suspicion that they could actually compete with a good many NFL teams. However, the question becomes the spread. Does Arkansas have enough pride to not only bounce back from last week’s defeat but also defend their home turf against total annihilation?? I think they do. Alabama will win, but not by 20 points. God help me, I’m taking Arkansas.

 

 

 

Florida                                  at            Tennessee (-3)

Both teams come into this highly anticipated rivalry game at 2-0, but this is where the proverbial rubber meets the road. The Gators have dominated the series lately, winning 7 straight. I put the Vols in my pre-season Top 25 because I think it’s time for their backward slide into irrelevance to stop. This would be a great game for them to have my back. It looks like the boys in Vegas agree with my thought process, and the fact that the game is being played in Knoxville tips the cap as well. I’m going with the favorites and my pre-season vibes, which Tennessee has so far reinforced.

 

 

USC (-9)                               at            Stanford

Another matchup of two 2-0 teams, and yet another situation where the real season starts here. Southern Cal is among the favorites to compete for the national title, while Stanford is regrouping after losing QB Andrew Luck to graduation & the NFL. I see no reason why the Trojan train will be derailed at this point, even though they aren’t the home team. I think USC wins comfortably.

 

 

Notre Dame                       at            Michigan State (-6)

The Spartans enter this annual rivalry at 2-0 and with the home field advantage. The Fighting Irish have thus far been as advertised. I’m still a little bit uncomfortable with the QB situation in South Bend, but it has actually worked out quite well to this point. However, if we are really being honest the first two weeks of the season haven’t really told us all that much about either team, and this will be when we find out who’s a contender and who’s a pretender. The vibes are telling me that the Spartans will be the victors, and even though the vibes haven’t proven to be all that accurate this year I’ll still go with them.

 

 

Baltimore                            at            Philadelphia (-2)

The Ravens are among the favorites in the AFC, and a big victory over the Bengals to open the season did nothing to dissuade anyone from that notion. The Eagles had a much less impressive 2012 debut, barely getting by the lowly Cleveland Browns. The home field advantage has surprisingly made Philly slim favorites. I’m not sure I buy that, so I’ll go against the grain and, as much as it makes this Steelers fan physically ill, pick the Ravens. Ugh.

 

 

New Orleans (-3)             at            Carolina

The Saints got victimized last weekend by rookie QB Robert Griffin III’s remarkable first NFL game, which was probably the biggest surprise of the inaugural week of the 2012 season. Meanwhile, it was the same old story for the Panthers, with QB Cam Newton putting up good numbers in a loss. I’m really quite stunned that New Orleans is only a 3 point favorite. I suppose last week’s loss, combined with the huge crush the masses have on Newton and Carolina having the home field are contributing factors. I think that’s all poppycock, and even though I picked New Orleans to have a mediocre season and Carolina to make the playoffs I have to go with the Saints here.

 

 

Washington (-3.5)           at            St. Louis

The Redskins look like they have the real deal with signal caller RGIII, who, as noted above, got his NFL career off to a rousing start with a shocking victory over the New Orleans Saints. The Rams made a game of it but ultimately fell to the Detroit Lions last weekend. There is a temptation to believe that Griffin will be knocked off his pedestal and be made to look more like the rookie that he is, and that will almost certainly happen eventually. But I don’t think it’ll occur this week. Washington should get a fairly easy victory here.

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 2

Before we forge ahead into this week’s picks let’s take a look back at last week. I went 4-3 in my inaugural round. Tennessee easily handled NC State, Northwestern edged Syracuse but didn’t cover the 1.5 point spread winning by just 1 point (a pyrrhic victory that I am sure I felt much better about than the Orangemen), Michigan St. beat Boise St. but didn’t cover the 7 point spread just as I predicted, and Northern Illinois fell to Iowa but easily stayed within the 9 point spread losing by only 1. On the flip side Clemson defeated Auburn by a touchdown, Miami upended Boston College, and I was way wrong about Michigan, as they were handily dismissed by Alabama. I can certainly do better, but for my first jump into the pool I’ll take it.

This week we add the NFL into the mix as their season gets underway. Enjoy the games, enjoy the tailgates, be safe, and remember…no wagering.

 

 

 

Temple  (-10.5)                                 at            Maryland

The Owls easily dispatched 1-AA Villanova last week, while Maryland barely defeated tiny little William & Mary 7-6. Maybe my early support of the Terrapins is misguided?? We will know more after this game, because I don’t care that Temple has gone to a couple of bowl games recently and has been welcomed back into the desperate Big East…it’s still Temple. If Maryland loses by double digits to Temple then Maryland head coach Randy Edsall should just go ahead and get his resume ready now because his days are numbered. Fortunately for him I think his team will wake up and atleast make this a competitive contest if not an actual victory.

 

 

Florida                                at            Texas A&M (-2.5)

The Gators started their season by beating Bowling Green in solid yet unspectacular fashion, while the Aggies had their game against Louisiana Tech postponed due to Hurricane Isaac. So instead of beginning their maiden voyage in the SEC against a cupcake like so many college teams do nowadays, A&M dives in headfirst against a prominent conference foe. However, this game is being played in College Station, and the current Florida Gators don’t really resemble the team that was so successful during the Steve Spurrier or Urban Myer eras. I think this will be a good, close game and really enjoyable to watch. However, at the end of the day I think the newcomers will make a statement against their highly respected brethren and easily cover the points.

 

 

South Florida                     at            Nevada (even)

The Bulls had no problem with UT-Chattanooga in week 1, while Nevada surprised some folks by defeating the Cal Golden Bears. To be honest that “upset” didn’t shock me all that much, and it was a pick I almost made here. I regret now not pulling the trigger. Ah well…c’est la vie. This is the rare “even money” matchup, meaning there is no point spread. That uncomplicates things I suppose. There is a very valid concern that the Wolfpack might suffer a hangover from their previous big victory, but I don’t think that’ll happen. Having home field advantage should give Nevada the edge needed to pull away for the win.

 

 

Georgia (-3.5)                    at            Missouri

Here we have a 2nd team making their SEC debut. The Tigers bolted The Big 12 for the SEC just like Texas A&M, and got their season started last week by destroying SE Louisiana. The Bulldogs were highly ranked in most pre-season polls (except mine), and got things off to a good start a week ago with a solid win over Buffalo. I am obviously not quite as sold on Georgia as a lot of folks, and honestly I don’t really have an exact reason for that. I just think that there are a lot of great teams in the SEC and someone’s got to be the proverbial odd man out. I have chosen Georgia to fill that role. I may be right, I may be wrong…who knows. But we will have a better idea of which after this game. Missouri having the home field advantage is once again a key factor in my pick. Their fans will be fired up and so will the team. Can emotion & momentum trump talent?? I think it can, especially when the talent gap isn’t all that huge. I’ll take Missouri in this one, and I think it’ll be a really fun game.

 

 

Oklahoma St. (-13.5)      at            Arizona

The Cowboys obliterated Savannah St. 84-0 in week 1, which sparked an interesting debate amongst the talking heads about the morality and the actual physical hazard involved when a much superior team plays a woefully overmatched cupcake. That is an interesting topic that maybe I’ll pontificate about some other time, however Oklahoma St. has a taller mountain to climb this week in the Wildcats, who edged the Toledo Rockets by just a touchdown last week in the opening volley of the Fraudriguez era in the desert. I do think that Fraudriguez will have much more success (not to mention a longer leash) at Arizona than he did at Michigan, but traditionally it takes a couple of years to install his system, so don ‘t be surprised if the ‘Cats suffer a couple of dismal seasons before things click. I am a bit tentative about this game because of the nearly 2 touchdown point spread and the fact that the game is being played in Tucson, factors that would normally lead me to pick the underdog. However, I am going with the vibes and picking Oklahoma St. to cover.

 

 

Buffalo Bills                       at            NY Jets (-3)

Ahhh….our first NFL pick. Pro football is a bit more difficult to gauge than college because the league has been so successful in creating parity over the years. A team may be horrible one year but become Super Bowl contenders the next…or vice versa. Changing a coach, signing or losing a few free agents, and drafting a big time star can all change the fortunes of an NFL franchise…for better or worse…in the blink of an eye. There is rarely such a thing as a huge upset in pro football. It definitely keeps things interesting, but it poses a unique challenge in prognostication. It seems like just yesterday Jets coach Rex Ryan was confidently predicting a Super Bowl for his team (heck…knowing Ryan maybe it WAS yesterday), but the truth is this team has some issues. I don’t think QB Tim Tebow adds anything to the mix except controversy, and even if starter Mark Sanchez overcomes all the haters the fact is that he has no reliable weapons. Meanwhile, the Bills added defensive sack master Mario Williams, who I think once & for all has proven that he was indeed a better #1 overall pick than either QB Vince Young (currently unemployed) or RB Reggie Bush (currently wasting away in Miami with the miserable Dolphins) would have been. I know he is only one player, but to me he transforms that defense. I think Buffalo is going to surprise a lot of folks this year, and it all starts this week.

 

 

San Francisco 49ers         at            Green Bay Packers (-5)

This is most assuredly one of the marquee contests in week 1 of the NFL season, and may be a preview of the NFC Championship game. The Packers, after 2 stellar seasons and a victory in Super Bowl XLV (that’s 45 for those of you from the backwoods of Kentucky visiting the big city for some vittles & ammo), stumbled in last year’s playoffs against the eventual World Champion NY Giants, while the 49ers also lost to the Giants in the conference title game, a heartbreaking overtime defeat. That means both teams will be angry and out to prove something, which should provide a very entertaining game for fans to watch. The question is, which team will be angrier and more resolute?? After much debate with The Voices I have decided to go with the supposed underdogs. I like the 49ers defense more, and I believe in the old adage that defense wins championships.

 

 

 

 

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2012 NFL Preview & Prognostications

There’s nothing like cutting it close, right?? Just a few hours before the 2012 NFL season officially kicks off (on a Wednesday…weird) I am here with my always stellar & 100% accurate predictions. Well…okay…my vibes aren’t always all that precise, but I keep trying!! I am not really predicting anything all that wacky this year because I think we pretty much know who the haves & have nots are in professional football. There are always a few mild surprises, and of course a couple of injuries here & there can change everything in the blink of an eye, but not withstanding the unforeseeable I believe that this season will mostly adhere to conventional wisdom, but in a fun kind of way. As always I do not condone wagering, especially with my track record. Seriously, the only thing financially riskier than using my football forecast for monetary gain is trusting President Obama and his economic braintrust. Each team’s 2011 record is shown in parentheses, with my prediction for 2012 immediately following.

 

 

NFC East

*Philadelphia Eagles      

(8-8)                      12-4

*Dallas Cowboys             

(8-8)                      10-6

New York Giants             

(9-7)                      8-8

Washington Redskins    

(5-11)                    7-9

Last year the Eagles signed a bunch of big time free agents and bloviated a bit too much about being a team of destiny…then proceeded to fall flat on their face. If…if…QB Michael Vick can stay healthy in 2012 they may finally fulfill their potential. Everybody knows that another disappointing season will cost Coach Andy Reid his job and I don’t think anyone really wants to see that happen. The Cowboys will be in hot pursuit and should make the playoffs. I really like new Redskins field general Robert Griffin III but he is a rookie quarterback and I think we need to lower expectations for a couple of years. A year ago I predicted that the NY Giants wouldn’t “be nearly as good as most others seem to think they will”. They promptly went out and won their 2nd Super Bowl in 5 years. However, I will not be deterred!! Actually if you look closely at last year the Giants went 9-7, backed into the playoffs, then got hot at the right time. That is unlikely to happen again, and I think it far more probable that they will have a similar record in 2012 and fail to reach the postseason rather than actually having a dramatically better regular season this time around.

 

NFC North

*Green Bay Packers      

(15-1)                    11-5

Chicago Bears                   

(8-8)                      9-7         

Detroit Lions                     

(10-6)                    9-7

Minnesota Vikings          

(3-13)                    2-14

I just don’t see this division as being in any doubt. The Packers may have stumbled last year in the playoffs, but they are still among the elite franchises in the NFL and have the best QB in the game. Their aerial attack is so good that their defense just has to be solid, not spectacular. The Bears & the Lions will both be decent and in the midst of the playoff hunt, but I’m just not all that impressed…yet. Give the Lions another year or two. I like young Vikings QB Christian Ponder, and of course when healthy Adrian Petersen is among the best running backs in the business, but there’s really nothing else to be excited about. And if AP doesn’t recover as well as hoped for from knee surgery it could be a v-e-r-y long year for the guys in purple.

 

NFC South

*New Orleans Saints     

(13-3)                    9-7

*Carolina Panthers         

(6-10)                    9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(4-12)                    7-9

Atlanta Falcons                                

(10-6)                    7-9

I do not believe that a team can go through the turmoil that the Saints have experienced this offseason and not be affected. Their head coach is suspended for an entire year, and the guy they picked to fill in is suspended for the first 6 games. So for nearly half of the season they are being led by a 3rd string head coach. For most teams that would be a fatal blow, but this team has an ace in the hole…QB Drew Brees. There is a school of thought that Brees will lead this team in blitz of anger and dominate their opponents en route to glory just to prove a point and piss off Commandant Fidel Goodell. That sounds like a fun theory, but I don’t believe it’ll be quite that easy. Fortunately for fans in The Big Easy their team plays in a rather mediocre division. I do think QB Cam Newton, in his 2nd year, will surprise a lot of folks and lead his team to the playoffs. The Buccaneers will improve but when a team goes 4-12 there’s really nowhere to go but up. I like new Bucs coach Greg Schiano, but there will be an adjustment…this ain’t The Big East anymore. The surprise might be in Atlanta, where I’m just not sold on the Falcons. QB Matt Ryan will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and by then I think he’ll be ready to flee The Peach State.

 

NFC West

*San Francisco 49ers     

(13-3)                    12-4

St. Louis Rams                  

(2-14)                    8-8

Seattle Seahawks           

(7-9)                      8-8

Arizona Cardinals            

(8-8)                      5-11

Much like the NFC North this division isn’t really all that competitive. The 49ers fell just short of The Super Bowl in coach Jim Harbaugh’s inaugural season…I don’t think winning the division is at the top of their list of goals. I believe the Rams will be much improved and will rebound from last year’s horrible season. The Seahawks are relying on undersized rookie QB Russell Wilson to lead them, which may pay dividends 4 or 5 years from now, but will only result in mediocrity for now. The Cardinals are a mess. A year ago I stated that “I’m sold on new Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb” and predicted a division title. I am not sure what kind of drugs I was on that day. Needless to say I was way…way…way wrong. Is john Skelton the answer?? Hell no. The fans in the desert have to be praying that their Cards can somehow get ahold of USC quarterback Matt Barkley in next year’s draft, and I think they’ll finish in a spot that’ll allow them to do just that. Fortunately they have WR Larry Fitzgerald locked in thru 2018, so atleast they have that going for them.

AFC East

*New England Patriots

(13-3)                    11-5

Buffalo Bills                        

(6-10)                    8-8

New York Jets                  

(8-8)                      7-9

Miami Dolphins                

(6-10)                    3-13

As much as I would love to see the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era come to a devastating end, sadly I don’t think it’s quite that time just yet. The Patriots should run away with the division and be amongst the heavy favorites to contend for The Lombardi Trophy. I really like what the Bills have done with their defense, especially the addition of Mario Williams. However, I do not believe that head coach Chan Gailey nor QB Ryan Fitzpatrick are the long term answers in Buffalo. There is an old adage that says if you have two quarterbacks then you have none, and I think that is exactly the conundrum the NY Jets find themselves in. Tim Tebow, as much as one might appreciate & respect his faith, morality, and personality, is nothing more than a huge distraction in regards to the on-the-field product. Also, RB Shonn Greene, even though he runs behind possibly the best offensive line in football, has not proven that he can be an elite tailback in the NFL. Oh, and whoever winds up being the quarterback doesn’t really have much of anyone to throw to besides head case Santonio Holmes, a #2 receiver trying desperately to convince everyone he is better than he is. And then we have the Miami Dolphins. Anyone who watched HBO’s Hard Knocks this summer can verify that this team is going to be bad…very bad. I think ownership made a horrible mistake hiring Joe Philbin as the new head coach. Philbin seems like a perfectly nice man, but traditionally very nice men don’t make successful NFL coaches. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has potential, but he has absolutely no one to throw to outside RB Reggie Bush.

 

AFC North

*Baltimore Ravens         

(12-4)                    11-5

*Pittsburgh Steelers      

(12-4)                    10-6

Cincinnati Bengals           

(9-7)                      9-7

Cleveland Browns           

(4-12)                    2-14

The Bengals did a lot better last year than I predicted, and quarterback Andy Dalton acquitted himself quite nicely. That being said, I don’t think we’ll see anything better in Cincy this season. Note to Bengals fans: “upgrading” from RB Cedric Benson to RB Benjarvus Green-Ellis is kind of like buying a Whopper instead of a Big Mac…better, but still not the steak that you really should spring for. The Browns will be even more horrible than usual. I don’t really understand giving up on QB Colt McCoy in favor of 28 year old rookie Brandon Weeden. It seems like a curious decision, but hey, it’s the Browns…they aren’t known for their smart decisions. So the division undoubtedly will come down to the Ravens and Steelers…again. The Ravens are on borrowed time because after Ray Lewis & Ed Reed are done I think the team will decline. Complicating matters in 2012 is the fact that linebacker Terrell Suggs tore an Achilles tendon last spring and will miss most or possibly all of this season. That would seem to tip things in the Steelers’ favor, but desperation can be a tremendous motivator. As a diehard Steelers fan I have some significant concerns about my team, including the uncertainty at RB (starter Rashard Mendenhall suffered a torn ACL at the end of 2011 season and may or may not be ready to return), an aging & injury riddled defense, a new offensive scheme under coordinator Todd Haley, and an unfortunate pre-season knee injury to promising 1st round pick OL David DeCastro. I do not think that the Steelers will be bad at all, but neither will they be elite.

 

AFC South

*Houston Texans            

(10-6)                    9-7

Tennessee Titans            

(9-7)                      9-7

Indianapolis Colts            

(2-14)                    6-10

Jacksonville Jaguars       

(5-11)                    4-12      

Lots of talking heads are jumping on the Texans bandwagon, and admittedly they do have a solid QB in Matt Schaub and one of the best RBs in the league in Arian Foster…not to mention big time receiver Andre Johnson. But I don’t think it’ll be a walk in the park for Houston. I really like Titans QB Jake Locker, and I think RB Chris Johnson will rebound from a subpar 2011. If Locker has a target or two step up to solidify the passing game I think the boys in Music City will be in the thick of the battle to the very end. Another quarterback I really like is Colts rookie Andrew Luck. In time I believe he will follow a similar path of success to that of his predecessor in Indy Peyton Manning. However, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and improving by just a few games would be a significant reason for optimism. The Jaguars offseason has been dominated by the holdout of RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who magically decided to end the standoff immediately following the end of the pre-season. That does not bode well. I do like rookie WR Justin Blackmon, but I’m just not sure second year signal caller Blaine Gabbert is the right man to deliver the ball. NFL owners & fans have an increasingly short attention span, and Gabbert will need to show remarkable improvement to prevent a loud clamor for his ouster. I think it is very likely that the Jags will be players in the Matt Barkley Sweepstakes.    

 

AFC West

*Denver Broncos            

(8-8)                      10-6

*Kansas City Chiefs        

(7-9)                      9-7

Oakland Raiders              

(8-8)                      8-8

San Diego Chargers        

(8-8)                      6-10

There’s a new sheriff in town in Denver, and his name is Peyton Manning. The Broncos made the playoffs last season with Tebow at the helm, so surely they will be just as good and probably better under the skilled leadership of an actual NFL quarterback. KC is getting alot of buzz these days, and I do think the two headed RB monster of Jamaal Charles & Peyton Hillis can be an effective tandem, but my question is whether or not QB Matt Cassel is the right man for the job. The Raiders just seem to be treading water…neither all that great or too awfully bad. The surprise may be the Chargers, who I picked to win The Super Bowl last year. I was way off base obviously, and am now pretty much convinced that the party is over in San Diego and head coach Norv Turner will soon be enjoying an early retirement.

 

 

 

AFC Championship                          Baltimore            vs.          New England

My six playoff teams are noted (*), and I am not even going to try to get cute with the championship selections. Football fans would love to see another Ravens-Patriots matchup, even though just like last year I would be humbly asking God if there is any way both teams could lose. I don’t think the results will be much different, and we’ll see the damn Patriots in The Super Bowl yet again.

 

NFC Championship                         Green Bay           vs.          Carolina

The predicted playoff teams are noted (*), and I think it’ll come down to the Packers (no surprise) versus the Panthers (kind of a surprise), with Green Bay taking Cam Newton to the woodshed. Don’t worry Carolina fans…his time will come, just not yet. Making it this far only to be demolished by Aaron Rodgers will be a great lesson for the young man and will benefit him tremendously in 3 or 4 years.

 

 

Super Bowl

New England  Patriots                   vs.          Green Bay Packers

As much as I hate to admit it, this one would be a classic. I daresay that it would even be a shootout. The TV folks would LOVE that. In the end though I think the Packers have too much firepower and will win the highest scoring Super Bowl of all time 42-38.

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 1

 

Over a year ago I mentioned that I wanted to do a weekly football pick ‘em type of thing here at The Manofesto. However, both the 2011 college & pro seasons got underway without me implementing the plan, so I decided to wait ‘til next year. Well…the time has come. The most glorious time of the year…football season…is upon us. It really is the only thing that makes summer slipping away more tolerable. My plan at the moment is to pick 7 games each week. Normally it will be a mix of NCAA & NFL games, but since the NFL doesn’t begin its season for another week our initial go round will consist of 7 college games. These games are picked at random by me based purely on what I view as interesting, competitive, and entertaining. I was a little leery of the first week of college football simply because it is traditionally chock full of powerhouse vs. cupcake matchups that are in no way interesting, competitive, or entertaining. Fortunately I was able to choose 7 games that do frost my cupcake and I will be interested to see how it all plays out.

One thing that readers can expect from your humble Potentate of Profundity is accountability. I am not like those twits on ESPN (Kirk Herbstreit, Lee Corso, Mark May, etc.) who act like a bunch of know-it-all experts and then conveniently forget to ever mention their picks again when they are proven to be completely wrong. I will keep track of my hits & misses. I will own up to it when I am wrong. This whole thing is just for fun, but I cannot deny that there is some sense of pride on the line as I match wits with the talking heads that get paid big bucks to make these kinds of prognostications. Originally I did not plan to utilize point spreads and just wanted to choose straight up winners, but as I pondered the possibilities I figured out that the point spread adds an element of complexity that makes the process that much more enjoyable. I am well aware that the point spread is also meant to be used for gambling, something that I am not going to promote. I’ve done it before and I am sure that I’ll do it again in the future, but I am also well aware that gambling is one more thing…like alcohol, drugs, food, & sex…that one can easily become addicted to and that has destroyed careers, families, and lives. Remember folks…everything in moderation with God in the driver’s seat, okay?? Now on with the picks!!

 

 

Tennessee  (-3) vs.  N.C. State

I’m a bit surprised that the folks in Vegas are favoring the Vols here. Maybe when I put them in my pre-season Top 25 it wasn’t such a shot in the dark after all?? At any rate, since it is a given that their SEC schedule will be tough that makes it imperative for Tennessee to win their non-conference games if they want to have any shot of fulfilling my prophecy and returning to prominence. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack is usually one of the ACC’s more solid yet unspectacular teams. They don’t get a lot of publicity but they always seem to get the job done and go bowling at season’s end. It is interesting to note that this is a neutral site game being played in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome. I’m going with the talent & experienced leadership of UT QB Tyler Bray to pull this one out and cover the spread too.

 

Boise St.  at  Michigan St. (-7)

I had the Broncos just sneaking into my preseason Top 25’s last spot, but that is more a function of the media’s love affair with them combined with the relative ease of their schedule due to playing in the notably unnotable Mountain West. I don’t think former QB Kellen Moore will be easily replaced, which means there might be a bump or two in the road, especially early on. Meanwhile, over in Lansing, the Spartans are also faced with finding a new signal caller since former 3 year starter Kirk Cousins is now backing up Robert Griffin III with the Washington Redskins. That would seem to make this game a wash…and a very tough call. This is an opportunity for Boise St. to open lots of eyes and shut lots of mouths, because I know there are many naysayers like me who still aren’t quite convinced they belong at the big table with the adults. I am usually a sucker for the underdog, but I think that Spartan Stadium will be rockin’ and will give the guys in green the edge. Will they cover?? Good question. The vibes are telling me that this might be decided by a field goal, which means that I like Michigan St. to win, but I’ll take Boise St. & the points.

 

Northwestern (-1.5)  at  Syracuse

Will this game be fun to watch?? Probably not. I hate watching TV games broadcast from the Carrier Dome. I can’t explain it…it just doesn’t feel like a good football atmosphere. It has always seemed like kind of a boring place even when the Orange were a winning team. And since they have been horrible for most of the past decade and the outcome of most games seemed like a foregone conclusion it was even worse. When a lower tier Big 10 team is the opponent…well, that is an excellent recipe for either a lot of channel flipping or a fine afternoon nap. At any rate, I went out on a limb and put Syracuse in my pre-season Top 25 and said that they might win 8 or 9 games. Getting a win here would sure be a nice way to get off on the right foot, and I think they’ll do it. I’m going with the Orangemen to win this game outright.

 

Clemson (-3)  at Auburn

The last time we saw Clemson on a football field they were getting mauled in the Orange Bowl by my WVU Mountaineers 70-33. That kind of defeat will either haunt your dreams or piss you off…maybe both. I do really like junior QB Tahj Boyd and sophomore WR Sammy Watkins, but the question is can the defense stop anybody?? I put Auburn in my pre-season top 25 because it wasn’t that long ago that they were going undefeated & had a Heisman winning quarterback, and even when they “fell off” last year they still won 8 games. This boils down to 2nd tier ACC vs. 2nd tier SEC, and I think we all know where the smart money is in that battle. With this game being played at Jordan-Hare Stadium I have to give the edge to Auburn. I mean really…all they have to do is watch the Orange Bowl film.

 

Iowa (-9)  at  Northern Illinois

On paper a Big 10 vs. MAC matchup usually looks pretty lopsided, and most of the time it is. However, I really like this Northern Illinois team. Their games were rather fun to watch in 2011 and they have been a dominant force in their conference for several years. Iowa, on the other hand, is a hit & miss program. Maybe they’ll win 6 or 7 games and sneak into a forgettable bowl game, or maybe they’ll win 10 or 11 games and compete for the conference title and a spot in the Rose Bowl. They are never really bad, but they are rarely mentioned in the same conversation with elite Big 10 foes Michigan, Ohio St., Wisconsin, and Nebraska. It is interesting to me that this game is being played at Huskie Stadium, which just might be the tipping point. Those fans will know how important defeating a Big 10 opponent would be, and they’ll be ready. I am going to wuss out of picking an outright victory for the underdogs, but I’ll take Northern Illinois and the points.

 

Miami (-2) at  Boston College

Ahhh…a dreaded ACC matchup. The ACC is even more boring to watch than the Big East, the conference these two traitors ditched several years back. I don’t know about all the financial stuff, but on the surface that move has looked like a poor one for both teams, as they have both become lost in the shuffle and gotten far less love from the media than conference darlings Florida St., Georgia Tech, NC State, and Virginia Tech. I remember when Miami…or as I called them, Thug U…was one of the best teams in college football, with coaches like Howard Schnellenberger, Jimmy Johnson, & Dennis Erickson, and alums who went on to be big NFL stars like Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, Michael Irvin, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Wayne, Warren Sapp, Ed Reed, and Ray Lewis. They were in the national championship picture for most of the 80’s & 90’s and into the new millennium, but it’s been almost a decade since the Hurricanes were really that good. The Eagles are another hit & miss team. Sometimes they are mediocre, sometimes they can be very good. However, in 2011 they finished 4-8, the worst record for a BC football team since 1998. I don’t have a dog in this particular fight, so I’ll go with the home team and pick Boston College to win.

 

Michigan  at  Alabama (-14)

Last but certainly not least, right?? This is the crown jewel of the first week of the college football season. We all know that the Crimson Tide has been…I’m sorry, I can’t avoid it…on a roll, winning 12 or more games 3 out of the past 4 years and capturing two national championships. During that same time span the Wolverines were suffering thru the Fraudriguez Era, going 15-22 and not at all resembling the traditional powerhouse that had been built by Bo Schembechler and had produced dozens of conference titles, multiple Rose Bowl & other bowl victories, and a plethora of NFL talent such as Tom Brady, Tom Harmon, “Crazy Legs” Hirsch, Anthony Carter, Dan Dierdorf, Braylon Edwards, Larry Foote, Brian Griese, Desmond Howard, Charles Woodson, and Amani Toomer. In 2011 the powers-that-be restored order in Ann Arbor by canning Fraudriguez & hiring Brady Hoke as the new head coach, and the Wolverines went 11-2 and won the Sugar Bowl. There is no doubt that this will be a tough task for Michigan, especially since the game is being played at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. Obviously the oddsmakers aren’t giving the ol’ Maize & Blue much of a chance to win. However, I think a 14 point spread is ridiculous. I would be stunned if ‘Bama actually won by that much. I give the Wolverines more than a decent shot to pull out a victory, but I certainly believe that that they will cover the points even if they lose.

 

 

 

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