2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 9

I thought I might be distracted tonight by The World Series, but the game is pretty much over in the 7th inning, so it’s on to football. Zach (3-2) bested me (1-4) last weekend and has drawn closer to a .500 record and the season lead. Injuries in the NFL have wreaked havoc on my fantasy teams thus far, so I must admit to waning enthusiasm. Thankfully these picks help me maintain a certain level of interest.

My Season:        27-22

Zach’s Season:  24-25

 

 

 

 

 

 

USC (-13)                     at                         Colorado

I had high hopes for the Trojans, but injuries wrecked any shot they had at playoff contention. However, at 4-3 they still have a decent opportunity to get into the conference title game. Conversely, the Buffs are on a three game losing streak and the schedule looks to be rough the rest of the way. Their goal has to be bowl eligibility at this point, and I’m not sure I’d bet on that happening. Can Colorado muster enough home field mojo to atleast cover the points?? I don’t think so. Conversely, Zach sees USC as inconsistent and does believe Colorado can keep things close in a high scoring game.

My Pick:     Southern Cal

Z’s Pick:     Colorado

 

 

 

Auburn                        at                         LSU (-10)

The Bayou Bengals have visions of a conference championship and a playoff berth on their minds. They’re undefeated and have a huge home field advantage. Will they be looking ahead to a date with Alabama in Tuscaloosa?? I suppose it’s possible, but they do have a bye next week so it shouldn’t be as big of an issue as it could be. Auburn is a dangerous Top Ten foe, but it seems like a lot of folks have jumped off that bandwagon after they lost at Florida a couple of weeks ago. I expect a really fun game, and I think LSU will get the victory…however I believe it will be a single digit win. Zach understands the possibility of this being a trap game for LSU, but can’t ignore the excellence of QB Joe Burrow & the dominating defense.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     LSU

 

 

 

 

Notre Dame                          at                         Michigan (-1)

The Disney TV folks were probably hoping that this would be the big matchup of the week, but the luster has been diminished just a bit. The Irish are somehow in the Top Ten, but the truth is they haven’t played a tough schedule outside of a loss to Georgia. The Wolverines have lost two games, the latest just a week ago to Penn St. Rumors of Jim Harbaugh bolting for the NFL have already begun. So basically this game is going to save one of these teams’ season. Another loss might knock Michigan completely out of the rankings, while Notre Dame losing would open up the floodgates of the talking heads accusing them of being overrated. I have no idea what to expect, but when in doubt I tend to ride with the home team. Zach was heartbroken by Michigan’s loss to Penn St., but recognized some positives. Having said that, he’s going with the old “expect the worst” philosophy, which is probably smart.

My Pick:     Michigan

Z’s Pick:     Notre Dame

 

 

 

 

Wisconsin                            at                         Ohio State (-14)

A week ago this game was going to be epic. It still could be, but thanks to an upset by Illinois that no one saw coming more people have jumped off the Badger bandwagon than the folks that have ditched Auburn. In the legendary words of Ferris Bueller…”life moves pretty fast”. Having said that, there’s still a lot at stake here. The Buckeyes are eyeing a playoff spot, and both teams could meet again in the conference title game. There are a couple of things to consider. First, The Horseshoe in Columbus is a rather significant home field advantage for Ohio St. Secondly, even if one concedes that the home team deserves to be favored those points are…attention grabbing. Was the Illinois game just an anomaly…or did it expose Wisconsin as a fraud?? Is Ohio St. really a Top 5 team, or should we be talking about their relatively weak schedule?? I envision a low-scoring game (the over/under is 50 and I’d take the under)…defense, special teams, field position, ground & pound. The Vibes tell me Ohio St. wins, but not by 14 points. Zach reluctantly admits that the Buckeyes look scary good right now and thinks they’d definitely make the playoff if it began now. However, he leans toward last week being a glitch and looks for Wisconsin to rebound strong.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:     Wisconsin

 

 

 

Carolina                       at                  San Francisco (-5)

The 49ers are undefeated y’all!! It’s been awhile since they had a good football team in ‘Frisco, but anyone who’s been following Jimmy G. isn’t all that shocked. Conversely, the Panthers’ are being led by backup QB Kyle Allen since the injury bug has bitten Cam Newton. That’s not a bad thing though…Carolina is 4-2 and RB Christian McCaffrey is a legit MVP candidate. This is going to be a fun game to watch, and my sense is that turnovers will play a key role. I’m pulling the trigger on an upset because no one goes unbeaten in the NFL and ‘Frisco will eventually win their division easily anyway. Conversely, Zach has no hesitation in predicting a big Niners win.

My Pick:     Carolina

Z’s Pick:     San Francisco

2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 6

Friends, it’s October and still 80+ degrees most days here in Appalachia, and I must say that I’m loving it. I know those grey, damp, depressing days are coming, so I’m going to enjoy the sunshine as much as possible while it lasts. At any rate, y’all didn’t come here to discuss meteorology, you are interested in football. Things have been admittedly a little more…overcast…in that area for me, with the Steelers, Herd,& Mountaineers all staring mediocrity in the face and my fantasy teams struggling for a variety of reasons. A week ago Zach & I were both once again 3-2, meaning that I am still clinging to the season lead. Since this is my birthday weekend we’re going to celebrate with bonus picks, which may or may not be a wise decision. Enjoy.

My Season:   15-13

Zach’s Season:   13-15

 

 

 

 

 

Auburn (-2)                  at                Florida

Do I believe that either team will ultimately compete for the SEC title?? No. However right now both are undefeated and sitting inside the Top Ten. Of the two I think Auburn is the more talented team, but going into The Swamp is no easy task. This will probably be a close game, but it seems likely that the Tigers’ defense will wear down the Gators’ offense and score a tight victory. Zach really likes Auburn’s young QB and thinks he’ll make the difference.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Auburn

 

 

 

Georgia (-24)               at               Tennessee

A couple of things are intriguing here. Few people believe that the 1-3 Vols stand any chance to defeat the Bulldogs. However, the game is in Knoxville so never say never. Secondly, the 3+ touchdown spread is fascinating. Tennessee was beaten by 31 points by Florida a couple of weeks ago…but that was in the aforementioned Swamp. Can they do better at home?? It doesn’t hurt that the underdogs are also coming off of a bye week, but then again so is Georgia. Y’all know I get nervous about points like this, but it feels like another go big or go home moment, and I did have Georgia as a playoff team in the pre-season so now is a good time to show my faith in them. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Georgia

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

 

Maryland (-12)             at                Rutgers

Maryland has been all over the place this season. The 2-2 Terrapins have won a game by 79 points and lost a game by 59 points. That’s quite a swing. Meanwhile, the Scarlet Knights are 1-3 and haven’t had a winning season since 2014. I have no idea what to make of Maryland…they’re schizophrenic and no one knows which team might show up. If the good Terrapins make the trip to New Jersey they will win easily, but if not…well, I have a feeling Rutgers could pull off an upset. Zach has faith in Maryland’s running game and thinks they’ll win easily.

My Pick:     Rutgers

Z’s Pick:     Maryland

 

 

 

Virginia Tech              at                Miami (FL) (-14)

Both teams probably had high hopes just a month ago, and I know I had much more faith in the Hokies than I should have. The Hurricanes have beaten two teams they should have and lost to two legit teams. Tech has pretty much had the same kind of season thus far. So which team can use this game as a launchpad for improvement?? Well, I suppose the smart money would be on the home team, but I’m feeling a little rebellious so I’m going the other way. Zach recognizes that this is a rivalry game, but believes the ‘Canes will break out the infamous Turnover Chain enough to win & cover.

My Pick:     Virginia Tech

Z’s Pick:     Miami (FL)

 

 

 

Jacksonville               at                Carolina (-4)

The Panthers will once again be without QB Cam Newton, but since backup Kyle Allen has looked pretty good that’s not as horrible as it could be. The Jags backup QB Gardner Minshew has quickly become some sort of a folk hero, which no one could have seen coming a few weeks ago. I don’t know if either quarterback will be starting a year from now, but at the moment they’ve kept their teams competitive and deserve kudos. I don’t believe either will be playoff contenders, but for the time being this looks like an important contest. I like Jacksonville’s defense, yet Carolina has the home field. I may regret it, but I’m banking on the home team to get a game winning touchdown and cover the points. Conversely, Zach likes the Jags’ defense to do just enough to secure the win.

My Pick:     Carolina

Z’s Pick:     Jacksonville

 

 

Atlanta                at                Houston (-5)

Some may disagree, but I think Houston is clearly the superior team, even if their record isn’t that much better. They haven’t played their best football yet, and if they can put it all together I don’t believe a double digit victory is out of the question. Zach doesn’t think the Falcons are any good, but also doesn’t think Houston is that much better. He’s predicting a defensive battle decided…one way or another…by less than five points.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Atlanta

 

  

Tampa Bay                  at                New Orleans (-5)

The Bucs are probably one of the bigger surprises in the NFL, even at 2-2. An upset victory over the defending NFC Champions on the road tends to provide such cachet. The Saints are one of several teams playing without their starting quarterback, but they seem to have confidence in backup Teddy Bridgewater. Y’all might recall that New Orleans was my pre-season Super Bowl pick, and I’m not ready to give up on them just yet. Zach is a rebel, so he is predicting an upset…or atleast a very close game in which New Orleans doesn’t cover the points.

My Pick:     New Orleans

Z’s Pick:     Tampa Bay

 

  

Green Bay                   at                Dallas (-4)

Both are 3-1. Both lead their division. Each team has one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Dallas usually has one of the best offensive lines, but half of that group is injured, which is huge. Which defense will reign supreme?? Contrary to what most may think, I don’t foresee a high scoring shootout. The over/under is 47, and I’d go with the under. I like the Packers’ kicker just a bit more, and predict a field goal victory for the underdogs. Zach likes a motivated Aaron Rodgers to rebound after last week’s loss and get a tough road win.

My Pick:     Green Bay

Z’s Pick:     Green Bay

2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 2

The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. – Robert Burns

 

I know what you’re thinking…”Week 2?? What happened to Week 1??”.  Well, your humble Potentate of Profundity made a slight miscalculation. We did actually make picks, but due to a new work schedule (well new since last football season anyway) for myself and a busier than usual weekend I just didn’t get anything written & posted. In years past I could hammer out something quick on Saturday morning before kickoff if necessary, but that’s not the case anymore and last weekend it just messed up the whole deal. At any rate, in life one must learn to occasionally adapt on the fly, so that’s what we’re doing. Zach & I made picks on the following games a week ago: South Carolina/North Carolina, Northwestern/Stanford, Boise St./Florida St., USC/Fresno St., & Oregon/Auburn. Zach went 1-4, while I fared slightly better at 2-3 (thank you Southern Cal for not covering the points). Not exactly the beginning either of us hoped for, but we’ll just move on. The NFL begins their season this week, so to celebrate that and to make up for my previous error it seems like a fine idea to do some bonus picks. Enjoy.

Sam’s Season:   2-3

Zach’s Season:  1-4

 

 

 

 

 

Syracuse           at                Maryland (-2)

So I guess…after almost two decades of futility (with occasional sprinkles of mediocrity)…the Orange is allegedly competitive again. To be fair, they did post a 10-3 record last season and easily handled my WV Mountaineers in a bowl game in which the WVU coaching staff clearly phoned it in. The Terrapins beat the snot out of some junior high team last week, but does that really tell us anything?? I’m not ready to buy into Syracuse being “back” quite yet, but neither do I believe Maryland should be favored…even at home…based on one dominating performance against clearly inferior competition. Where does that leave us?? Well, hopefully with a fairly entertaining game. Zach believes Maryland’s hot start is legit and will continue.

My Pick:     Syracuse

Z’s Pick:     Maryland

 

 

 

LSU (-6)               at                Texas

Neither team was challenged a week ago, but we’ll see what they’re really made of now. If this game was in Baton Rouge the pick would be easy, but at home I think the Longhorns might have a legit shot to win. Texas has a kicker named Cameron Dicker…Dicker the Kicker, which I find entertaining in a juvenile sort of way. My vision is a last second game winning field goal in which Dicker just can’t get the ball where he needs to and falls a bit short. It’s okay. It’s common. It happens to every kicker. It’s no big deal. But atleast in that scenario Texas would cover the points. Zach thinks Texas might be a bit overrated, but also feels like LSU often fails to win big games. He’s calling for the outright upset.

My Pick:     Texas

Z’s Pick:     Texas

 

 

 

Stanford             at                USC (-1)

The Trojans won a tough battle with Fresno St. a week ago, while Stanford beat Northwestern. This game is essentially a pick ‘em, which means the folks in Vegas seem to agree that USC’s abysmal 2018 was a blip on the radar. They have a chance to make a statement by defending their home field and getting a leg up in the Pac 12, and I believe that’s exactly what will happen. Zach likes Stanford’s defense, especially considering USC lost starting quarterback JT Daniels to a torn ACL and will now be led by a freshman QB.

My Pick:     Southern Cal

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

 

Texas A&M                  at                Clemson (-18)

I’m really looking forward to this game. Fortunately it’s a 3:30pm kickoff, which fits into my day perfectly. A&M has a brutal schedule, and they’ll deserve respect for even becoming bowl eligible. However, I think they’ll do better than that and pull off a couple of upsets this season. Will that happen this week?? Well…no. Clemson is a well-oiled machine whose spot in the playoff is virtually guaranteed. Having said that, I’m a little taken aback by the points. I’m not sure if it indicates just how awesome the Tigers are, or possibly a lack of respect for the Aggies, which in my humble opinion would be a mistake. I don’t believe Clemson will lose, and the game might not be particularly close, but The Vibes are telling me it’ll be a 14-17 point victory. Zach likes Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence & RB Travis Etienne, but feels like A&M is also an improving team. Like me, he thinks the points are just too much.

My Pick:     Texas A&M

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

Kansas City (-3)                    at                Jacksonville

The oddsmakers have the Chiefs as one of the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl, and I don’t disagree. There is no question that QB Patrick Mahomes will lead the offense to some big numbers, so if KC’s defense evolves into something they could become almost unstoppable. The Jags usually have a solid defense, but they’ve been lacking where it counts most…behind center. Will QB Nick Foles change that?? Will he continue to be the quarterback that led the Philadelphia Eagles to a Lombardi trophy a couple of years ago?? Or faced with the task of being the unquestioned starter for an entire season will Foles be exposed as the journeyman backup many always thought him to be?? Those questions will be answered in due time, but in this specific contest I don’t believe Jacksonville has the firepower to keep up or a defense elite enough to stop the Chiefs offense. Zach doesn’t think Mahomes will put up MVP numbers like he did a year ago, but winning this game won’t be an issue.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

 

 

 

Indianapolis                at                LA Chargers (-6)

It’s been just another quiet, uneventful summer in Indianapolis. Well, except for the bombshell retirement of QB Andrew Luck before he even turns 30 years of age. Not to be outdone, the Chargers have been dealing with their own drama in the form of running back Melvin Gordon’s holdout. This game would probably be a lot more interesting with Luck & Gordon both playing, but their absence creates a sense of mystery & intrigue. The Colts’ coaching staff & front office can talk up new quarterback Jacoby Brissett all they want, but he’s got to prove it to me first. I’m rooting for the guy because wide receiver TY Hilton and RB Marlon Mack are integral pieces of my fantasy teams, but the reality is that it’s a huge change. The Chargers might have a bit of a dropoff without Gordon, but I think they’re equipped to weather the storm. Zach believes the Chargers are overrated, but Luck’s abrupt departure has doomed Indy’s season.

My Pick:     LA Chargers

Z’s Pick:     LA Chargers

 

 

 

NY Giants                       at                Dallas (-7)

I’m going to offer an opinion that some may find odd. I believe the Cowboys would have been better off had RB Zeke Elliott’s holdout lasted a few more weeks. I think Dallas will have a nice season and contend for a playoff spot, but in the end they’ll fall short like they always do. It might have been nice for Zeke to have fresher legs going into the last few games of the season. However, in regard to this game I don’t think any of that matters and the Cowboys will handle business easily. Zach concurs, predicting a three TD victory for the favorites.

My Pick:     Dallas

Z’s Pick:     Dallas

 

 

Houston                       at                New Orleans (-7)

This will be the earlier of two games on Monday night, and it should be really fun. My fondness for Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson is well-documented, and the team has made several moves in recent weeks that could prove to be helpful. The RB tandem of Duke Johnson & Carlos Hyde could be sneaky good, and JJ Watt will lead a stellar defense. The problem is that Houston is taking on my Super Bowl favorites in The Big Easy. A loss won’t destroy either team’s season, and I believe both will get into the playoffs. The home field is enough for me to go with the Saints, and Zach agrees, opining that New Orleans will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after being erroneously knocked out of a trip to the Super Bowl last season.

My Pick:     New Orleans

Z’s Pick:     New Orleans

2019 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

First things first…I am indeed aware that the college football season begins tonight when the Miami Hurricanes visit the Florida Gators. I usually get these rankings published earlier in August, but…well, that didn’t happen. You’re not interested in my excuses and I’m not really into making any, so we’ll just go with the flow. I don’t think the Canes’ nor the Gators will factor significantly into how things play out, so it’s all good. We know that out of 130 FBS football teams only 65 “power” conference teams (including “independent” Notre Dame) have any shot at the national title, and this season it feels like it’s a ten team race at best. As a fan I am still entertained by watching games, but I have to admit that the foregone conclusion that the playoff has become sort of harshes my football buzz. I need underdogs. I need upsets. I need some semblance of parity. I need a little variety from year to year. One of the charms of college football has always been that each season players graduate and new players come in, which means that every year is different…except nowadays its seems like nothing much changes. There have always been dominant programs, but there were still cycles wherein some teams would rise for a couple of years while others fell off a bit. That yin & yang was part of the fun. I hope that happens this season. I hope a team or two that everyone expects to win a lot of games unexpectedly loses a few. I hope a few teams that no one sees coming win 10+ games and challenge for conference titles. I hope…but I won’t hold my breath. Still, it’s nice to have football back.

 

 

 

25        Virginia Tech

Last Season:     6-7

Key Games:     10/5 @Miami, 11/2 @Notre Dame, 11/23 vs. Pitt

This season will go one of two ways for the Hokies. Either they’ll have another miserable losing season and head coach Justin Fuentes will be on the hot seat…or they’ll rebound with 8 or 9 wins and have a legit shot to win a conference title in a rather weak ACC. Obviously I lean toward the latter scenario.

 

 

24        Auburn

Last Season:     8-5

Key Games:     8/31 vs. Oregon, 9/21 @Texas A&M, 11/16 vs. Georgia, 11/30 vs. Alabama

Here’s the thing about the SEC. Atleast half the conference is going to get some attention from the talking heads early in the season because…well, that’s just how it is. Heck, I have five SEC teams in these rankings, and that’s me being conservative. But logic dictates that only a couple of those teams will really be elite. The rest will either fall flat & have disappointing seasons or fall short a few times and end up with a solid 8 or 9 win season. I think the Tigers will land in the latter category. The season opener against Oregon should be a good barometer of what we can expect.

 

 

23        Michigan State

Last Season:     7-6

Key Games:     9/14 vs. Arizona St., 10/5 @Ohio St., 10/12 @Wisconsin, 10/26 vs. Penn St., 11/16 @Michigan

Trips to Columbus & Ann Arbor don’t bode well for the Spartans Big Ten title hopes, but I believe they’ll rebound from a subpar 2018 and win nine games.

 

 

22        Central Florida

Last Season:     12-1

Key Games:     9/14 vs. Stanford, 9/21 @Pitt

The Knights hadn’t lost a game in two years until they ran into the LSU Tigers in the Fiesta Bowl. Do I expect more of the same this year?? Maybe. Out-of-conference games against Stanford & Pitt are important and could make a huge difference. It’s probably too much to ask UCF to go undefeated again, but I think a ten win season deserves some respect.

 

 

21        Army

Last Season:     11-2

Key Games:     9/7 @Michigan, 12/14 vs. Navy

Very few football fans pay attention to the Black Knights until the very end of the season when the Army-Navy Game has the spotlight all to itself, but Army has gone 21-5 in the past two years, which is quite impressive. I don’t think they’ll go into Ann Arbor and pull off an upset, but I don’t believe another ten win season is far-fetched.

 

 

20        Northwestern

Last Season:             9-5                             

Key Games:              8/31 @Stanford, 9/21 vs. Michigan St., 9/28 @Wisconsin, 10/5 @Nebraska, 10/18 vs. Ohio St., 10/26 vs. Iowa

Perhaps it’s the purple uniforms, or maybe it’s the fact that they were perennial underdogs when I was growing up but ten win seasons have now become fairly normal in Evanston. It might be the tenacity of former linebacker & current head coach Pat Fitzgerald. For some reason I have a soft spot for the Wildcats. This prediction could be an epic disaster since they’ve got to travel to Palo Alto to begin the season and also have road trips to Madison & Lincoln. However, if Northwestern can gut out a few upsets and win eight games I may be onto something.

 

 

19        Fresno State

Last Season:     12-2

Key Games:     8/31 @USC, 9/7 @Minnesota, 10/26 vs. Colorado St.

I’m a bit sad because my work schedule has changed yet again and I have to be in bed super early on Friday & Saturday nights so I can get up at 5am. That means that for the first time in many years I won’t get to watch hardly any late night west coast games. The Pac 12 gets all of the attention, but don’t forget about the Mountain West. It has become standard for Boise St. to get the infinitesimal amount of love left over for the MWC, but I believe the Bulldogs will emerge as the better team this year.

 

 

18        Michigan

Last Season:     10-3

Key Games:     9/21 @Wisconsin, 10/5 vs. Iowa, 10/19 @Penn St., 10/26 vs. Notre Dame, 11/16 vs. Michigan St., 11/0 vs. Ohio St.

Are patience wearing thin where Jim Harbaugh is concerned?? Possibly, but I still think he’ll ditch Michigan before Michigan cans him…and neither scenario may ever happen. This isn’t the early 20th century anymore…everyone outside of the state of Alabama understands how difficult it is to win a national championship and knows it isn’t the only barometer for success. Harbaugh has won ten games in 3 out of 4 seasons leading the maize & Blue, which is pretty darn good. The one thing he has to do to quell any sort of rebellion: beat Ohio St. Now is the time. This is the year. The Wolverines could lose 3 or 4 other games and it won’t matter if they defeat the Buckeyes in The Big House in November.

 

 

17        Arizona State

Last Season:     7-6

Key Games:     9/14 @Michigan St., 10/19 @Utah, 11/9 vs. USC, 11/23 vs. Oregon

I’m a big fan of Sun Devils’ head coach Herm Edwards. He might be a better talking head than head coach, but I saw some flashes a year ago that leads me to believe that this is a team that could pull off a couple of upsets and sneak into the rankings.

 

 

16        Texas A&M

Last Season:     9-4

Key Games:     9/7@Clemson, 9/21 vs. Auburn, 10/12 vs. Alabama, 11/23 @Georgia, 11/30 @LSU

No team has more chances to affect the National Championship picture than the Aggies. All five key games noted above involve potential playoff contenders, so A&M has a unique opportunity to be the ultimate spoiler…or be embarrassingly inept. Entering Year 2 of the Jimbo Fisher era I believe they’ll continue to build a solid foundation that will eventually lead to playoff appearances in the near future.

 

 

15        Stanford

Last Season:     9-4

Key Games:     9/21 vs. Oregon, 10/5 vs. Washington, 11/16 @Washington St., 11/30 vs. Notre Dame

The Pac 12 is stacked, and it’ll be really interesting to see which team(s) emerge to lead the pack. Stanford has its biggest games at home, and that could lead to good things.

 

 

14        Nebraska

Last Season:     4-8

Key Games:     9/28 vs. Ohio St., 11/16 vs. Wisconsin, 11/29 vs. Iowa

I’m really going out on a limb. After back to back four win seasons the Cornhuskers enter Year 2 of the Scott Frost era, which means that noticeable improvement is expected.  So does that mean going from losing seasons to bowl eligibility?? Or does it mean bursting back onto the scene with 8-10 wins?? The biggest games are at home, and just one upset might mean a huge turnaround for the program.

 

 

13        LSU

Last Season:     10-3

Key Games:     9/7 @Texas, 10/12 vs. Florida, 10/26 vs. Auburn, 11/9 @Alabama, 11/30 vs. Texas A&M

Ed Orgeron now seems to be firmly entrenched as the Bayou Bengals’ head coach, and that kind of stability provides a real sense of freedom for a program. A split against the four noted conference foes would be fantastic, but an early season non-conference battle at Texas could be the key to LSU’s entire season.

 

 

12        Utah

Last Season:     9-5

Key Games:     8/29 @BYU, 9/20 @USC, 9/28 vs. Washington St., 10/19 vs. Arizona St., 11/2 @Washington

Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to figuring out the Pac 12, but the Utes seem to be getting a lot of love. Anyone who has spent any time reading sports related content here at The Manofesto will recall my affection for BYU, which is why I consider that an important in-state contest for Utah even though BYU has only won eleven total games the past two years. I’m not sure what to think about Southern Cal or the two Washington teams…all three could make these rankings look silly a few months from now. One thing is for sure…the Utes are going to need to have some big road wins to have a successful season.

 

 

11        Iowa State

Last Season:     8-5

Key Games:     9/14 vs. Iowa, 11/9 @Oklahoma, 11/16 vs. Texas

Everybody loves to yap about Oklahoma & Texas, but Big 12 fans know not to sleep on the Cyclones. They’ve won eight games in each of the last two seasons, and with QB Brock Purdy entering his sophomore year I think bigger things await. I am predicting that they’ll upset either the Sooners or the Longhorns and finish third in the conference.

 

 

10        Wisconsin

Last Season:     8-5

Key Games:     9/21 vs. Michigan, 10/12 vs. Michigan St., 10/26 @Ohio St.

The bottom line is this…the Badgers have to upset one of the two Michigan teams because going into The Horseshoe & beating Ohio St. in October might be too much to expect. Otherwise, I expect a solid 8-10 win season, which is par for the course.

 

 

9          Southern California

Last Season:     5-7

Key Games:     9/7 vs. Stanford, 9/20 vs. Utah, 9/28 @Washington, 10/12 @Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Oregon

I’m doing it…I’m rolling the dice on the Trojans!! I’m not sure what the heck happened a year ago, but it was USC’s first losing season in eighteen years. Was it an anomaly?? Or was 2018 indicative of a backward slide that will continue for the foreseeable future?? Obviously I’m betting on the former, and in the words of Billy Joel I’ll walk away a fool or a king.

 

 

8          Texas

Last Season:     10-4

Key Games:     9/7 vs. LSU, 10/12 vs. Oklahoma, 11/16 @Iowa St.

The long road back to relevancy is about as complete as one can expect nowadays…all they need to do now is maintain consistency. A losing or even mediocre season now would be disastrous for a program that’s taken almost a decade to rebuild. Most “experts” expect the Big 12 to come down to Texas & Oklahoma, so the Red River Shootout in mid-October will be a huge game, but the Longhorns shouldn’t overlook Iowa St. just a month later.

 

 

7          Notre Dame

Last Season:     12-1

Key Games:     9/21 @Georgia, 10/12 vs. USC, 10/26 @Michigan, 11/30 @Stanford

Coming off a playoff season expectations are high in South Bend, but the schedule is brutal. One slip will knock them out of contention, and with big road games at Georgia, Michigan, & Stanford I’d be stunned to see the Irish go undefeated.

 

 

6          Ohio State

Last Season:    13-1

Key Games:     9/28 @Nebraska, 10/5 vs. Michigan St., 10/26 vs. Wisconsin, 11/23 vs. Penn St., 11/30 @ Michigan

Ohio St. is a football factory that recruits elite athletes and churns out winning seasons as easily as you & I change socks in the morning. However, the dividing line for such teams is whether they win 9/10 games and finish highly ranked or go undefeated and contend for a playoff spot. I don’t think there will be a significant dropoff under new head coach Ryan Day, and perhaps it is even positive for the program to be rid of the various distractions that accompanied former coach Urban Meyer. However, I don’t think you’ll see the Buckeyes in the playoff, and they might even suffer a loss to Michigan.

 

 

5             Oregon

Last Season:     9-4

Key Games:     8/31 @Auburn, 9/21 @Stanford, 10/19 @Washington, 11/2 @USC

Mario Cristobal started his reign as the Ducks’ head coach with a nine win season, so now anticipation is at a fever pitch in Eugene. A non-conference battle with Auburn to kick things off is a neutral site game at The Palace in Dallas. I don’t necessarily think that game will make or break either team’s season, but the winner will certainly be headed on an upward trajectory. I’m not sure what to make of the Pac 12 quite yet, but if Oregon can emerge from the pack they just might find themselves in playoff contention.

 

 

4             Alabama

Last Season:     14-1

Key Games:     10/12 @Texas A&M, 11/9 vs. LSU, 11/30 @Auburn

I don’t know about y’all, but ‘Bama has become a team I love to see lose. I’m just really over the whole thing. I know I should root for fellow West Virginian Nick Saban, but I just can’t. I’m an underdog kind of guy and The Tide has evolved into The Evil Empire. However, a year ago I opined that Alabama might have to lose as many as three games for the powers-that-be to leave them out of the playoff. We know for sure that they don’t need to win the SEC or even play in the title game. So here is how I see it going down. I think A&M and LSU will both provide legit tests for ‘Bama, but they’ll go into the SEC Championship ranked #1 or #2 in the country, lose the title game to Georgia, and still make the playoff.

 

 

3          Oklahoma

Last Season:     12-2

Key Games:     10-12 vs. Texas, 11/9 vs. Iowa St., 11/30 @Oklahoma St.

Sooners’ head coach Lincoln Riley…at just 35 years old…has made a believer out of me. Two straight 12 win seasons. Two consecutive Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks. With former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts transferring in to lead the offense I see no reason to believe that Oklahoma won’t win the Red River Shootout and claim another conference title. The Big 12 doesn’t get as much respect as the other “power” conferences, and it would probably be easy for the playoff committee to squeeze the Sooners out…but I don’t believe that’ll happen this season.

 

 

2          Georgia

Last Season:     11-3

Key Games:     9/21 vs. Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Florida, 11/16 @Auburn, 11/23 vs. Texas A&M

Beating Notre Dame in September is an absolute must for the Bulldogs’ playoff hopes, but fortunately it’s a home game. I’m not buying into any Florida hype, and by late November I think tough schedules will have taken their toll on Auburn and A&M. I also believe Georgia will win the SEC Championship. I would much rather see a Clemson-Georgia National Championship versus any matchup involving Alabama.

 

 

1          Clemson

Last Season:     15-0

Key Games:     9/7 vs. Texas A&M

Champion wrestler Ric Flair used to say “to be The Man you’ve got to beat The Man”, and until someone steps up & knocks the Tigers from their perch there’s no other choice for the #1 spot. When I look at the schedule it looks like A&M is the only legit threat they face in the regular season, and the playoff committee hasn’t penalized Clemson in the past for the relative weakness of the ACC so it would be inconsistent to do so now. Most “experts” seem to recognize that Clemson is on a whole other level at the moment, and QB Trevor Lawrence is special. He’s my favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 14

Our record setting round of bonus picks didn’t really prove all that much last week. Zach (9-8) lost out to myself (10-7) largely due to his misguided Michigan loyalty, but otherwise it’s basically just more mediocrity from us both. We are still focusing exclusively on college football because this is Championship Week when conference titles will be won & lost and the playoff picture will finally work itself out.

My Season:        42-44

Z’s Season:        36-50

 

 

 

 

 

 

Utah                              vs.              Washington (-5.5)

Pac 12 Championship (Santa Clara, CA)

I’m excited because this is a Friday night game and I’ll get to catch the last quarter or so at work. The Huskies upset in-state rival Washington St. last weekend, while the Utes are riding a three game winning streak after a hard fought battle against BYU a week ago. The Vibes are telling me that Washington has the momentum coming into this game, so that’s the way I’m going to lean. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Washington

Z’s Pick:     Washington

 

 

 

Texas                  vs.              Oklahoma (-7.5)

Big 12 Championship (Arlington, TX)

I feel like I should be more interested in this one, but I’m having a hard time giving a damn because I really wanted my WV Mountaineers to be playing in the game. If the Sooners win they may find themselves in the playoff…or not. Who knows?? This is a rematch of a game that took place a couple of months ago, when Texas prevailed by a just a field goal in a high scoring shootout. I’d definitely take the over in this one if you’re into that kind of thing, but with so much at stake I expect a different outcome, and so does Zach.

My Pick:     Oklahoma

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma

 

 

 

Memphis            at                Central Florida (-4.5)

American Athletic Championship

The college football community continues to give the Knights zero respect, which may or may not be valid. All I know is that they haven’t lost a game in two years, which is pretty doggone impressive. This is one of the rare conference title games not played on a neutral field, which means UCF is at home. I am somewhat surprised the points aren’t atleast a touchdown or more, but obviously there are questions since UCF starting quarterback McKenzie Milton had his season ended prematurely with a catastrophic knee injury. However, that injury occurred in the first half of last week’s game and the Knights went on to a fairly easy 38-10 win, so clearly the team has talent beyond Milton. I see no reason to expect an upset in this situation. Zach expects a high scoring nail biter but thinks the favorites will win by a touchdown.

My Pick:     UCF

Z’s Pick:     UCF

 

 

 

Alabama (-13.5)          vs.              Georgia

SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA)

I am beyond bored by the idea of this game. I believe ‘Bama is in the playoff win or lose. Georgia would certainly be in with a win, but there is some chatter that they could still make it even with a loss, which is absurd. If that actually happens they need to just scrap the entire playoff system. I have zero interest in watching and don’t care enough to even make a pick. Zach likes the Tide to roll…sort of. He believes the Bulldogs will be pumped up early and keep it close, but Alabama will prevail. He just doesn’t think they’ll cover the points.

My Pick:     I Don’t Care

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

 

Clemson (-25.5)          vs.              Pitt

ACC Championship (Charlotte, NC)

Yeah…you’re season is over sPitt (except for a meaningless bowl game in which they’ll get throttled). There is no way on God’s green Earth Clemson is losing this game. Will the Tigers cover the points?? Hell, I hope they double it. Conversely, Zach doesn’t like the spread at all. He thinks the Panthers will keep things close until the fourth quarter before ultimately falling short.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Pitt

 

 

 

 

Fresno State               at                Boise State (-2.5)

Mountain West Championship

Fresno has had a nice ten win season, but they aren’t beating Boise on the blue turf. I’m kind of ticked that they’re kicking off at 7:45pm EST Saturday night. The charm of the west coast games is that I can usually watch them at work late at night, but I guess they’re trying to get more exposure or something. Zach likes the Broncos to win easily.

My Pick:     Boise St.

Z’s Pick:     Boise St.

 

 

 

Northwestern              vs.              Ohio State (-12.5)

Big Ten Championship (Indianapolis, IN)

It’s not that this is the best game of the weekend because I expect the Buckeyes to win easily, but it is probably the most important contest to keep an eye on. In the battle for an elusive playoff spot the talking heads are all about “style points”. Personally I think beating the snot out of Michigan by three TDs and hanging 62 points on what was supposed to be a stout defense was remarkable, but a similarly dominant performance this week is probably necessary. Zach is still a bit churlish about that beatdown his Wolverines took, so he’s picking the Wildcats to win in overtime.

My Pick:     Ohio St.

Z’s Pick:     Northwestern

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 13

It’s Rivalry Week in college football, and it is Thanksgiving. Warm wishes to The Manoverse for a delightful holiday filled with food, football, family, flicks, & fun. I’m not gonna lie…last week was brutal. I (2-3) edged out Zach (1-4), but that’s really not saying a whole lot. If the Texans would’ve covered a measly three point spread and if the Chiefs were capable of playing a shred of defense things would have turned out differently, but those things didn’t happen. I scored 133 points in my dynasty league and still lost, and my opponent didn’t even have the best week in the league because another team broke a six year old all-time single game scoring record. Needless to say I’m a bit perturbed with the NFL at the moment, but fortunately the timing is perfect. In-state & regional rivalries are the bedrock on which college football is built, but conference realignment in recent years has had a negative effect on such traditions. It seems like an effort is being made to remedy that, which makes me happy. I had a hard time choosing which games to focus on, so what the hell…we’re just going to pick most of them. I’m pretty sure we’ve never picked this many games in one week, but with both of us below .500 on the season this feels like a great opportunity to dig ourselves out of the hole (or sink inescapably deeper into the abyss).

My Season:        32-37

Z’s Season:        27-42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mississippi State (-11)                  at                Ole Miss

Why can only one of these teams be good in any one season?? This year it is the 7-4 Bulldogs that look solid, while the 5-6 Rebels are fighting for bowl eligibility. Ole Miss has the home field and something to play for so I’m going with the upset. Zach believes these are two mediocre teams with potential. He’s uncomfortable with the points so he’s picking the underdogs to atleast cover.

My Pick:     Ole Miss

Z’s Pick:     Ole Miss

 

 

 

BYU                     at                Utah (-12)

The 6-5 Cougars are a perplexing program. I’m not sure why a conference like The Big 12 or Mountain West hasn’t scooped them up yet. Being independent doesn’t seem to be working out well. And I’m never sure what to expect from year to year. Conversely, things seem to be going just fine for the 8-3 Utes, who have already secured a spot in the Pac 12 title game. Is this a trap game?? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way the 12 points is too much. Zach gives props to BYU for beating Wisconsin earlier in the season, but he likes the home team in this one.

My Pick:     BYU

Z’s Pick:     Utah

 

 

 

Georgia Tech              at                Georgia (-17)

Could the Bulldogs be looking ahead to their SEC Championship clash against Alabama?? The Yellow Jackets are 7-4 and have only a bowl game to look forward to, but knocking their in-state rivalry out of playoff contention would be the cherry on top of a solid season. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but the points are just way too much. Zach thinks Tech’s triple option could cause issues for Georgia’s defense, but with a playoff berth possibly on the line he is going out on a limb and picking the favorites to cover the sizeable spread.

My Pick:     Georgia Tech

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

Nebraska                     at                Iowa (-9.5)

The Cornhuskers are a dreadful 4-7, but have shown signs of life by winning 4 out of their last 5 games. Conversely, the Hawkeyes are 7-4 but have lost 3 of 4. These are two teams heading in the opposite direction, and I smell an upset (or atleast a close game). Zach is predicting a low-scoring defensive battle and thinks Nebraska has the hot hand.

My Pick:     Nebraska

Z’s Pick:     Nebraska

 

 

 

Virginia (-4.5)               at                Virginia Tech

Okay…here’s the deal. Tech comes into this game 4-6, and they had a game against East Carolina cancelled back in September due to Hurricane Florence. If the Hokies win this game they are one victory shy of bowl eligibility. A deal is in place where Tech would play a game against my alma mater the Marshall Thundering Herd, who also had a game at South Carolina cancelled because of the same hurricane. That game will only take place if the Hokies win here, which won’t be an easy task against the 7-4 Cavaliers. Traditionally Tech has a significant home field advantage, and I’m hoping that is the case once again. Conversely, Zach believes the Cavs will get the easy victory.

My Pick:     Virginia Tech

Z’s Pick:     Virginia

 

 

Oregon (-17)                at                Oregon State

They call this game The Civil War. It is one of the oldest rivalries in college football, having first been played 124 years ago. The two campuses are less that fifty miles apart, so I don’t think there is any true home field advantage. The Ducks come into the game 7-4, having had a real roller coaster season. The Beavers are 2-9, so their coaster seems to be broken. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but I’m picking the favorites to win easily. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Oregon

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

Central Florida (-14)                      at                South Florida

Way back when I did my pre-season rankings I placed the Bulls 12th and had the Knights unranked. I said that “UCF is still getting much of the love from talking heads this pre-season, but I’m not buying it”, while posing the question “can USF steal the spotlight in 2018?”. Well, so far that thought process hasn’t quite come to fruition. South Florida is 7-4, while Central Florida remains undefeated and is a Top 10 team. Both teams have something to play for…pride for South, and remaining unbeaten for Central. The two campuses are little more than an hour apart, so the home field probably isn’t that big of a deal. I can’t pull the trigger on an upset, but I think the Bulls will keep it closer than two TDs. Zach likes UCF’s offense to carry them to an easy win.

My Pick:     South Florida

Z’s Pick:     Central Florida

 

 

 

 

Washington                 at                Washington State (-2.5)

They call this The Apple Cup because Washington is the nation’s leading producer of…well, I’m sure you can guess. The Huskies were getting all the pre-season love, but at 8-3 have fallen short of expectations. Conversely, the Cougars are still in the playoff conversation, but they need a few dominoes to fall in front of them. The winner of this game will play Utah for the Pac 12 title, and I’m smelling an upset for the underdogs. Zach is predicting a really close game…possibly even overtime…to be won by the home team.

My Pick:     Washington

Z’s Pick:     Washington St.

 

 

 

 

Florida (-6)                             at                          Florida State

Wow…who could have predicted that this game would be a mere afterthought on a weekend full of other battles of much more interest & importance?? I truly thought the Seminoles would bounce back after a rough 2017 campaign, but at 5-6 they need a win to even become bowl eligible. The 8-3 Gators certainly aren’t terrible, but have been forgotten amidst all the love for Alabama & Georgia and even love for Kentucky & LSU. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the upset since Florida St. will be looking to extend their streak of 36 consecutive bowl game appearances. Zach likes the Gators’ defense to get the job done.

My Pick:     Florida State

Z’s Pick:     Florida

 

 

 

LSU (-3)                       at                          Texas A&M

Do I believe that two loss LSU should be a Top 10 team?? No. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t a dangerous opponent for anyone who goes up against them. At 7-4 A&M is just about what we thought they’d be…tons of potential with good things ahead, but not quite there yet. I can’t overlook the home field in this one and think the Aggies can pull off a mild surprise. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Texas A&M

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

Kentucky (-17)                     at                          Louisville

It seems odd to be talking about this matchup on the football field instead of the basketball court, but that’s where we are. The Wildcats have had a really nice season and will land in a fun bowl location. Conversely, the 2-9 Cardinals have already fired their coach and look like they need to move to the AAC or C-USA because the ACC is just too good for them. I have no doubt that Kentucky will win, but the points concern me just a bit. I suppose it’s one of those “go big or go home” moments, right?? According to Zach Louisville is “garbage” and he likes Kentucky’s ground game to win big.

My Pick:     Kentucky

Z’s Pick:     Kentucky

 

 

 

Utah State                             at                          Boise State (-2.5)

The winner of this game will play Fresno St. in the Mountain West title game. The Bulldogs have the home field and a solid track record of winning big games, so I believe they’ll get the job done. Zach likes Utah St. in the trenches, but doesn’t believe it’s enough for them to overcome the home field advantage.

My Pick:     Boise St.

Z’s Pick:     Boise St.

 

 

 

Notre Dame (-10.5)               at                          USC

So this is it. The Trojans are Notre Dame’s final hurdle to the playoff. Normally that would not only be intriguing, but it’d make this the biggest game of the weekend. However, while the undefeated Irish have looked unstoppable 5-6 Southern Cal has not. Much like Florida State, USC is a traditional power now just battling for bowl eligibility. Can they get the job done and pull off a huge upset?? I wish…but probably not. Zach thinks USC will make a coaching change after the season, and as much as he’d like to see the upset he doesn’t believe it’ll happen.

My Pick:     Notre Dame

Z’s Pick:     Notre Dame

 

 

 

Arizona State (-2)                 at                          Arizona

Herm Edwards has the Sun Devils at 6-5 and heading in the right direction. The arrow is pointing up for Kevin Sumlin’s Wildcats as well, despite a roller coaster season. The Wildcats have the home field and need a victory to become bowl eligible, so that’s the pick for me. Zach doesn’t like Arizona’s defense (or lack thereof), so he is going with the favorites.

My Pick:     Arizona

Z’s Pick:     Arizona St.

 

 

 

South Carolina                    at                Clemson (-26)

The Gamecocks aren’t winning this game. Clemson has a playoff berth on the line and they’re not going to let their in-state rival steal that away. But what about the points?? That’s an awfully big spread. Might Clemson rest some players and hold something back for the ACC title game?? Nahhhhh. They’ll win by atleast four touchdowns. Zach is going in the other direction, believing the Tigers will take their foot off the gas just enough for the Gamecocks to cover.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     South Carolina

 

 

 

Auburn                         at                          Alabama (-24.5)

The Iron Bowl is always one of the biggest games on the calendar, and this year is no exception. I think Alabama is destined for the playoff win or lose, and they could even drop this game and the SEC title game and still be gifted a playoff berth. Auburn is 7-4 and has been underwhelming this year, but I expect them to play their best game against their archrival. I don’t believe the Tigers have a snowball’s chance in California of winning the game, but they’ll probably keep it closer than the oddsmakers think. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Auburn

 

 

 

Michigan (-4.5)                     at                Ohio State

This is it. This is the biggest game of the holiday weekend. For the first time in awhile the Wolverines are actually favored, despite playing at The Horseshoe in Columbus. The winner will face Northwestern in the Big Ten title game, but Michigan has much bigger fish to fry because a playoff berth awaits. However, unlike ‘Bama, they cannot afford to stumble. The Buckeyes have to have a lot of things go their way to make it to the playoff, which is unlikely. But I have to believe that screwing their hated rival out of a chance to play for the National Championship would be a fantastic consolation prize. Because a) I love playoff chaos, b) I know Zach will pick Michigan, & c) I don’t think the home field can be overlooked, I am picking the upset. As predicted Zach is picking the Wolverines to give Ohio St. an epic beatdown.

My Pick:     Ohio St.

Z’s Pick:     Michigan

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 10

One of the reasons we generally avoid picking Thursday games is because it seems like anytime we do I end up having a crazy week and it becomes challenging to get what you read here finished before kickoff. Today is no exception, so this is going to be quick & dirty. Last week Zach (3-2) and myself (2-3) had yet another average, unspectacular week. We’ll try to do better…but no one should hold their breath.

My Season:  23-28

Z’s Season:   21-30

 

 

 

 

 

Georgia (-9.5)              at                Kentucky

I never would have dreamed a few months ago that this game might actually be…noteworthy. However, with the 7-1 Bulldogs still hanging on the fringes of the playoff conversation and the Wildcats residing in the Top 10 with the same record it has become kind of a big deal. And let’s not forget that the winner takes control of their destiny as far as earning a spot in the SEC title game. I really want to pick Kentucky…but I just can’t. The pedigree isn’t there. Georgia has much more experience in big games and I think that makes the difference. Zach is a little nervous about the points but feels like Georgia is back on track and Kentucky’s luck will run out.

My Pick:     Georgia

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

 

Texas A&M                  at                Auburn (-5)

I almost put A&M in my pre-season poll, but I hesitated because I thought it might take Jimbo Fisher a year or two to get things going. They’ve done slightly better than I expected but still aren’t a threat to win the conference…yet. It’s funny how perception factors into situations, because Auburn has the same 5-3 record as the Aggies but their season feels like it’s gone completely off the rails, and they could lose two or three more games. Having said that, the Tigers have the home field this weekend and that’s enough for me. Conversely, Zach thinks the coach’s seat at Auburn might be getting a bit warm and believes Fisher has A&M headed in the right direction.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

Notre Dame (-9.5)                 at                Northwestern

Don’t be surprised if it’s one of the better games on Saturday. The Wildcats are riding a four game win streak and are one of the oddest conundrums in college football. How does a team beat Purdue, Michigan St., & Wisconsin but lose to Akron & Duke?? Perhaps they play to the level of their opponent?? Conversely, the undefeated Irish are solid playoff contenders…but is this a trap game?? I think it just might be. Zach has slowly come around to believing Notre Dame is for real, but he thinks Northwestern will have the bigger pot o’ gold at the end of Saturday’s rainbow.

My Pick:     Northwestern

Z’s Pick:     Northwestern

 

 

Alabama (-14)              at                LSU

Could there actually be some offense in this game?? Might both teams get into double digits?? Let’s hope so. Okay okay…I’m being a bit unfair. Everyone remembers the defensive snoozefest in 2011 that ended with a score of 9-6 and the 10-0 game in 2016, but the truth is that the score tends to be more of a 20-ish to 17-ish kind of deal. Both teams are in the playoff at the moment, and let’s face it…even with a loss ‘Bama will still be in the Final Four. Hell, they could probably lose a couple of games and the powers-that-be would find a way to put them in the playoff, which is why I find the Tide painfully tedious. LSU has been a bit of a surprise since I didn’t expect them to be quite so good this season, but I’ve been wrong about most everything else so why not. This feels like much more of a must-win for the Tigers, plus they have a formidable home field. Zach feels like LSU has battled thru adversity thus far while ‘Bama hasn’t faced a formidable challenge until now. He foresees another defensive struggle, with the Tide coming out on top…but not covering the points.

My Pick:     LSU

Z’s Pick:     LSU

 

 

 

Oakland                       at                San Francisco (-3)

Chronologically this game is actually first on the docket, as it is the NFL’s Thursday night matchup, and I’m not sure why we decided to include it. Oakland is 1-6 and going nowhere fast. The most entertaining part of their season has been waiting to see who Crazy Jon Gruden will trade next. I’m happy he’s not on TV anymore, but feel sorry for the folks in Oakland. The Raiders will be relocating to Vegas in the not-so-distant future and it’s sad that they’re legacy of success in Oakland is being tarnished. The 49ers might have been one of the better teams in the NFL if injuries hadn’t derailed their season, but at 1-7 all of the positive hype from the summer has disappeared into the ether. ‘Frisco feels like much less of a trainwreck than Oakland, and they have the home field, so that’s good enough for me. Zach, on the other hand, believes in Gruden.

My Pick:     San Francisco

Z’s Pick:     Oakland

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 8

I’m running a little behind this week and am thankful we didn’t pick any Thursday games. I have no excuse except pure laziness, which happens sometimes. I suppose with my Steelers on their bye week and my Mountaineers off as well after an embarrassing beatdown last weekend I’m just not all that excited about football at the moment, but I’ll get over it. Speaking of beatdowns, last week both myself (3-2) and Zach (2-3) continued our epic mediocrity, proving once again that, as much fun as it may be, we’re really not very good at this.

My Season:     19-22

Z’s Season:     17-24

 

 

 

 

 

 

Alabama   (-28.5)                  at                Tennessee

We don’t pick ‘Bama games very often because quite honestly they bore me. I’m over it. Dominance is only interesting for a team & its fan base…everyone else is rooting for them to lose. Zach & I both agree that nobody is beating Alabama (not yet anyway), but I am intrigued by the points. So far this season The Tide has won seven games by an average of 30.5 points per game. Of course Tennessee is a step up in competition from teams like Arkansas St. & Louisiana-Lafayette, but not as good as Ole Miss and Texas A&M, both of which were beaten easily by Alabama. The wildcard is the health of Tide starting QB Tua Tagovailoa, who left last week’s game with a knee injury. Having former starter Jalen Hurts as a backup means the team won’t be negatively impacted all that much, but the offense would be undeniably less dynamic. My vibe is that Tua will start but will get dinged up and come out of the game at some point, so I’m going to roll the dice and guess that ‘Bama’s victory will be by 21-28 points. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Tennessee

Z’s Pick:     Tennessee

 

 

 

NC State                       at                Clemson (-17)

Mountaineer fans here in WV were denied an opportunity to see the Wolfpack in action due to Hurricane Florence, but they’ve steamrolled to a 5-0 record against mediocre competition, including my alma mater the Marshall Thundering Herd. Their first legit test comes in Death Valley against the 6-0 Tigers who are once again in the playoff conversation despite a bit of a quarterback brouhaha a few weeks ago. Once again I don’t expect an upset but am intrigued by the points. Clemson is winning games by an average of more than 27 points per game, although they have had a couple of close calls…a two point victory over A&M and beating Syracuse by just four points. It just depends on how one view NC St. Are they a legit Top 25 team…or are they pretenders propped up by a soft schedule?? I think I lean toward the latter. Zach doesn’t believe that Clemson is as good as everyone seems to think they are and feels like NC St. will give it a good go before losing a close game.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     NC State

 

 

 

Mississippi State                 at                LSU (-6.5)

I definitely did not expect the Bayou Bengals to be a playoff contender this season considering their 9-4 record a year ago and an 8-4 finish in 2016. However, despite a misstep at Florida a couple of weeks ago they still have an outside shot at getting there, especially if a big upset of Alabama occurs after the bye week. First things first though…the 4-2 Bulldogs could certainly be viewed as a trap game of LSU is looking ahead to ‘Bama. If this game were being played in Starkville I might be a little worried, but in the friendly environment of Baton Rouge I don’t think it’ll be all that close. Zach believes LSU is for real and will win big.

My Pick:     LSU

Z’s Pick:     LSU

 

 

 

Carolina                       at                Philadelphia (-4.5)

Defending Super Bowl champs traditionally have problems defending their crown, and the 3-3 Eagles sure haven’t looked like serious contenders thus far. At 3-2 the Panthers haven’t been too impressive either. Both teams are going to have an issue just winning their division and making the playoffs. I’m not sure what to think about this game, but I suppose I’ll lean in the direction of the home field. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Philadelphia

Z’s Pick:     Philadelphia

 

 

 

Cleveland                     at                Tampa Bay (-3)

Are we really picking a Browns/Bucs game?? Yes…yes we are. I like to spread the love cause I’m generous like that, and the truth is that the Browns actually have a pulse for the first time in a very long while. I don’t expect them to get near the playoffs or anything, but 5 or 6 wins seems possible, and that would be a significant improvement. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are 2-3 and just fired their defensive coordinator. Isn’t it odd how the team has gone in the crapper since Jameis Winston returned as the starting QB?? Tampa is getting the traditional home field bump, but I’m predicting a fairly easy Cleveland victory. Zach has very little faith in either team but is going with the upset.

My Pick:     Cleveland

Z’s Pick:     Cleveland

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 7

So if the College Football Playoff were to be played right now the four combatants would be Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, & Clemson, and if the Super Bowl was on the immediate horizon it looks like the Los Angeles Rams vs. the Kansas City Chiefs might be a likely matchup. Of course there is a lot of football left to be played and I expect some big changes along the way. I had a better week (3-2) than Zach (1-4) and have taken back the season lead, but that’ll probably change a lot in the next couple of months as well.

My Season:        16-20

Z’s Season:        15-21

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona               at                Utah (-13.5)

The PAC 12 title will probably come down to Washington or Stanford vs. USC or Colorado, but the 3-2 Utes and the 3-3 Wildcats are both dangerous enough to be spoilers. When Texas A&M canned Kevin Sumlin he landed on his feet at Arizona and I thought he’d do quite well there, but he’s off to a shaky start. Utah has clearly looked like the stronger team against better competition, which is reflected in the points. I am typically not comfortable with a two touchdown spread, but The Vibes are telling me to go big or go home for this game. Zach concurs because…in his words…”Arizona sucks man”.

My Pick:     Utah

Z’s Pick:     Utah

 

 

 

Tennessee                  at                Auburn (-15.5)

The War Eagles were getting a lot of pre-season love, but I knew they weren’t a Top Ten team, especially against a harsh schedule. Absolutely no one had any expectations for the Vols, and at 2-3 they’ve not altered that outlook. Auburn will win this game…the only question is by how much?? If it were being played on Knoxville I might give Tennessee a puncher’s chance of keeping things close, but that’s not going to happen at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Zach believes that Tennessee will keep things respectable for three quarters but Auburn will pull away and win big.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Auburn

 

 

 

Washington (-3)                   at                Oregon

I had the Huskies ranked as a playoff contender before the season started, but a loss to Auburn right out of the gate put a big dent in all of that unless a lot of other dominos fall. However, at 5-1 they are still in the driver’s seat to play for the conference championship. The 4-1 Ducks are still in that mix too, but this is probably a must-win game. Oregon QB Justin Herbert is beginning to get a bit of Heisman buzz, and he could really vault himself into the conversation with a big game at home against a Top Ten team. I don’t usually bail on teams that I heaped praise on in the pre-season, but in this case the home team underdogs are just too much of a temptation. Zach also likes the home field to make the difference for Oregon.

My Pick:     Oregon

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

Wisconsin                   at                Michigan (-7.5)

The Badgers were my pre-season #1, but a September loss to BYU is a real killer, plus they still have to go to Happy Valley to face Penn St. next month. So basically this is yet another must-win game. I urged the masses to pump the brakes on high expectations for the Wolverines, but at 5-1 they have looked pretty darn good after a season opening loss at Notre Dame. This game is in The Big House, which is certainly a challenge, but I’ve already abandoned one of my pre-season playoff teams today…I won’t do it again. Wisconsin’s size concerns Zach just a bit, as does Michigan’s offense. However, he likes the Wolverine’s stellar defense. But at the end of the day he feels like Coach Harbaugh still has some work to do and…much to my surprise…he just can’t go with the Maize & Blue in this one.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:     Wisconsin

 

 

Kansas City                 at                New England (-3.5)

This is the Sunday night game on NBC, and I’d definitely take the over…if you’re into that sort of thing. The 3-2 Pats seem to have found their footing after a shaky start to the season, which is bad news for the rest of the AFC. However, the Chiefs are undefeated and looked rather impressive defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. I’m sure the TV folks would love to see a track meet where both teams score 40+ points, and that may happen. The winner will likely be decided by turnovers, penalties, & atleast one big defensive stand. I try to put emotion aside when making these picks, but I can’t deny that I am rooting for KC…hard. Zach figures that Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes has to have a bad game at some point, so it may as well be this weekend.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     New England

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 6

It’s my birthday y’all!! However, the difference between 23 and 46 is that doing these picks will be the highlight of my day, sandwiched between doing laundry and going to work later tonight. Adulting really isn’t much fun sometimes. And speaking of no fun…last week was pretty brutal. Zach (4-4) bested me (3-5) and has now taken the season lead. Both of us are still below .500, but for now we’re not going to chase wins with bonus picks.

My Season:     13-18

Z’s Season:     14-17

 

 

 

 

Texas                  vs.              Oklahoma (-7.5)

The Red River Shootout. I know the talking heads don’t use that moniker anymore because of misguided social engineering, but I don’t follow their rules. The 5-0 Sooners have steamrolled thru a fairly mundane schedule and haven’t missed former QB Baker Mayfield at all. The Longhorns are 4-1, but wins over USC & TCU have created a ripple of excitement in Austin, TX that’s been missing for several years. This is a neutral site game being played at the old Cotton Bowl in Dallas, which means no discernible home field advantage for either team. Oklahoma has looked unstoppable thus far, but this will be their first legit test. Texas has shown a spark here & there the past few seasons, but it never amounts to anything. So this appears to be a crossroads for both teams. I don’t know who will come out on top, but I believe that the victor will win by less than a touchdown. Zach concurs. He believes this game will be a high scoring affair with very little defense.

My Pick:     Texas

Z’s Pick:     Texas

 

 

 

LSU (-2.5)           at                Florida

The Bayou Bengals have been en fuego!! At 5-0 they have victories over Auburn, Miami (FL), & Ole Miss, which has them in the playoff conversation. The 4-1 Gators have looked pretty solid and The Swamp is one of the best home fields in college football. I think this will be a fun game, but at the end of the day LSU is clearly the better team. Zach thinks this game will be a lot better than most expect, but his concern is Florida’s inconsistency on both sides of the ball.

My Pick:     LSU

Z’s Pick:     LSU

 

 

 

Kentucky           at                Texas A&M (-6)

Kentucky is good…at football?? We have to go all the way back to 1984 for the last 9 win season for the Wildcats, but at 5-0 it looks like that is a reasonable goal. And with wins over Florida & Mississippi St. we can’t say their schedule has been soft. A&M is 3-2 under new $75 million head coach Jimbo Fisher, which probably has the folks in College Station dissatisfied, but they need to be patient. I’m a little surprised by the points. I know all about The Twelfth Man at A&M, and it’s no shock that folks are a bit hesitant to buy into Kentucky just yet, but a six point spread seems a bit disrespectful. Having said that, I have to go with the favorites. Zach is looking forward to a close game but believes Kentucky is legit.

My Pick:     Texas A&M

Z’s Pick:     Kentucky

 

 

Notre Dame (-6)           at                Virginia Tech

This is probably the best matchup of the weekend, with Notre Dame in the playoff conversation and Tech one baffling loss to Old Dominion away from being a Top Ten team. Of course it’s that inexplicable misstep that has everyone perplexed. If this game were being played in South Bend the Irish would be a double digit favorite, no one would bat an eye, and we probably wouldn’t even be discussing it. But strange things happen in Blacksburg on Saturday nights. I anticipate a really fun & close game, and I’m going to pull the trigger on picking the upset cause that’s how I roll. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Virginia Tech

Z’s Pick:     Virginia Tech

 

 

Jacksonville                at                Kansas City (-3)

These are probably the two best teams in the AFC right now given New England’s shaky start and Pittsburgh’s dysfunction. I’m not sure that’ll be the case by season’s end, but we’ll deal with that when the time comes. Essentially what we’re all looking forward to seeing is the Chiefs’ high flying offense versus the Jags’ impermeable defense. In my season preview I called Jacksonville RB Leonard Fournette “an injury waiting to happen”, and sure enough he is missing games with a hamstring issue. Is that enough to cost his team this game?? I think it might be. Conversely, Zach likes the Jags’ defense to finally get KC quarterback Pat Mahomes to come crashing back down to Earth.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Jacksonville