Syracuse Orange

2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 2

The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. – Robert Burns

 

I know what you’re thinking…”Week 2?? What happened to Week 1??”.  Well, your humble Potentate of Profundity made a slight miscalculation. We did actually make picks, but due to a new work schedule (well new since last football season anyway) for myself and a busier than usual weekend I just didn’t get anything written & posted. In years past I could hammer out something quick on Saturday morning before kickoff if necessary, but that’s not the case anymore and last weekend it just messed up the whole deal. At any rate, in life one must learn to occasionally adapt on the fly, so that’s what we’re doing. Zach & I made picks on the following games a week ago: South Carolina/North Carolina, Northwestern/Stanford, Boise St./Florida St., USC/Fresno St., & Oregon/Auburn. Zach went 1-4, while I fared slightly better at 2-3 (thank you Southern Cal for not covering the points). Not exactly the beginning either of us hoped for, but we’ll just move on. The NFL begins their season this week, so to celebrate that and to make up for my previous error it seems like a fine idea to do some bonus picks. Enjoy.

Sam’s Season:   2-3

Zach’s Season:  1-4

 

 

 

 

 

Syracuse           at                Maryland (-2)

So I guess…after almost two decades of futility (with occasional sprinkles of mediocrity)…the Orange is allegedly competitive again. To be fair, they did post a 10-3 record last season and easily handled my WV Mountaineers in a bowl game in which the WVU coaching staff clearly phoned it in. The Terrapins beat the snot out of some junior high team last week, but does that really tell us anything?? I’m not ready to buy into Syracuse being “back” quite yet, but neither do I believe Maryland should be favored…even at home…based on one dominating performance against clearly inferior competition. Where does that leave us?? Well, hopefully with a fairly entertaining game. Zach believes Maryland’s hot start is legit and will continue.

My Pick:     Syracuse

Z’s Pick:     Maryland

 

 

 

LSU (-6)               at                Texas

Neither team was challenged a week ago, but we’ll see what they’re really made of now. If this game was in Baton Rouge the pick would be easy, but at home I think the Longhorns might have a legit shot to win. Texas has a kicker named Cameron Dicker…Dicker the Kicker, which I find entertaining in a juvenile sort of way. My vision is a last second game winning field goal in which Dicker just can’t get the ball where he needs to and falls a bit short. It’s okay. It’s common. It happens to every kicker. It’s no big deal. But atleast in that scenario Texas would cover the points. Zach thinks Texas might be a bit overrated, but also feels like LSU often fails to win big games. He’s calling for the outright upset.

My Pick:     Texas

Z’s Pick:     Texas

 

 

 

Stanford             at                USC (-1)

The Trojans won a tough battle with Fresno St. a week ago, while Stanford beat Northwestern. This game is essentially a pick ‘em, which means the folks in Vegas seem to agree that USC’s abysmal 2018 was a blip on the radar. They have a chance to make a statement by defending their home field and getting a leg up in the Pac 12, and I believe that’s exactly what will happen. Zach likes Stanford’s defense, especially considering USC lost starting quarterback JT Daniels to a torn ACL and will now be led by a freshman QB.

My Pick:     Southern Cal

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

 

Texas A&M                  at                Clemson (-18)

I’m really looking forward to this game. Fortunately it’s a 3:30pm kickoff, which fits into my day perfectly. A&M has a brutal schedule, and they’ll deserve respect for even becoming bowl eligible. However, I think they’ll do better than that and pull off a couple of upsets this season. Will that happen this week?? Well…no. Clemson is a well-oiled machine whose spot in the playoff is virtually guaranteed. Having said that, I’m a little taken aback by the points. I’m not sure if it indicates just how awesome the Tigers are, or possibly a lack of respect for the Aggies, which in my humble opinion would be a mistake. I don’t believe Clemson will lose, and the game might not be particularly close, but The Vibes are telling me it’ll be a 14-17 point victory. Zach likes Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence & RB Travis Etienne, but feels like A&M is also an improving team. Like me, he thinks the points are just too much.

My Pick:     Texas A&M

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

Kansas City (-3)                    at                Jacksonville

The oddsmakers have the Chiefs as one of the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl, and I don’t disagree. There is no question that QB Patrick Mahomes will lead the offense to some big numbers, so if KC’s defense evolves into something they could become almost unstoppable. The Jags usually have a solid defense, but they’ve been lacking where it counts most…behind center. Will QB Nick Foles change that?? Will he continue to be the quarterback that led the Philadelphia Eagles to a Lombardi trophy a couple of years ago?? Or faced with the task of being the unquestioned starter for an entire season will Foles be exposed as the journeyman backup many always thought him to be?? Those questions will be answered in due time, but in this specific contest I don’t believe Jacksonville has the firepower to keep up or a defense elite enough to stop the Chiefs offense. Zach doesn’t think Mahomes will put up MVP numbers like he did a year ago, but winning this game won’t be an issue.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

 

 

 

Indianapolis                at                LA Chargers (-6)

It’s been just another quiet, uneventful summer in Indianapolis. Well, except for the bombshell retirement of QB Andrew Luck before he even turns 30 years of age. Not to be outdone, the Chargers have been dealing with their own drama in the form of running back Melvin Gordon’s holdout. This game would probably be a lot more interesting with Luck & Gordon both playing, but their absence creates a sense of mystery & intrigue. The Colts’ coaching staff & front office can talk up new quarterback Jacoby Brissett all they want, but he’s got to prove it to me first. I’m rooting for the guy because wide receiver TY Hilton and RB Marlon Mack are integral pieces of my fantasy teams, but the reality is that it’s a huge change. The Chargers might have a bit of a dropoff without Gordon, but I think they’re equipped to weather the storm. Zach believes the Chargers are overrated, but Luck’s abrupt departure has doomed Indy’s season.

My Pick:     LA Chargers

Z’s Pick:     LA Chargers

 

 

 

NY Giants                       at                Dallas (-7)

I’m going to offer an opinion that some may find odd. I believe the Cowboys would have been better off had RB Zeke Elliott’s holdout lasted a few more weeks. I think Dallas will have a nice season and contend for a playoff spot, but in the end they’ll fall short like they always do. It might have been nice for Zeke to have fresher legs going into the last few games of the season. However, in regard to this game I don’t think any of that matters and the Cowboys will handle business easily. Zach concurs, predicting a three TD victory for the favorites.

My Pick:     Dallas

Z’s Pick:     Dallas

 

 

Houston                       at                New Orleans (-7)

This will be the earlier of two games on Monday night, and it should be really fun. My fondness for Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson is well-documented, and the team has made several moves in recent weeks that could prove to be helpful. The RB tandem of Duke Johnson & Carlos Hyde could be sneaky good, and JJ Watt will lead a stellar defense. The problem is that Houston is taking on my Super Bowl favorites in The Big Easy. A loss won’t destroy either team’s season, and I believe both will get into the playoffs. The home field is enough for me to go with the Saints, and Zach agrees, opining that New Orleans will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after being erroneously knocked out of a trip to the Super Bowl last season.

My Pick:     New Orleans

Z’s Pick:     New Orleans

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 12

It is weeks like this that I am thankful for these silly little football picks that we do. Have you ever experienced one of those moods when you don’t necessarily feel bad but you just don’t have much…pep?? I call it a funk. Perhaps others would refer to it as a malaise or melancholy. It’s not quite depression, but kind of depression light. I get this way on occasion, especially when there is a time change. I’m always able to shake it off eventually, and with the holidays fast approaching I’m confident that I’ll get my mojo back soon enough. Until then there is football, and last week wasn’t half bad for me (5-3), but Zach (3-5) might have a different perspective. At any rate, we’re back to our normal five games for now, with the balance being tipped in the NFL’s favor for once since the college schedule is atrocious. Really Alabama?? You’re playing The Citadel in November?? That’s shameful. The Tide ought to lose their #1 ranking just for that.

 My Season:        30-34

Z’s Season:        26-38

 

 

 

 

 

 

Syracuse           at      Notre Dame (-9.5)

I’m old enough to remember when Syracuse was legitimately good back in the late 80s & early 90s, but they haven’t had a nine win season since 1997. However, they are currently 8-2 and a Top 15 team. The Orangemen aren’t going to be a playoff team or make it to the ACC title game, but could they derail the National Championship dreams of the undefeated Irish?? This is a “neutral site” game being played at Yankee Stadium, which is a good thing because I just can’t enjoy watching games that emanate from The Carrier Dome. It looks too much like an Arena League game and I can’t take it seriously. At any rate, as much as I’d love to see an upset and the resulting playoff upheaval I’m not buying into the Syracuse hype. They’ve played three decent opponents and lost two of those games. I’d love to be wrong, but I think we’re looking at a blowout situation here. Conversely, Zach remembers Syracuse upsetting Clemson a year ago and thinks anything can happen in college football. He won’t go so far as to predict the upset, but believes that ‘Cuse will keep things close enough to cover the points.

My Pick:     Notre Dame

Z’s Pick:     Syracuse

 

 

 

 

Arizona               at                Washington State (-10.5)

I must admit that my initial reason for including this game was purely selfish. I figured it’d give me something to watch that I actually have a stake in during a boring Saturday night at work. But then I remembered that I’m actually off Saturday night!! I’ll probably watch anyhow since it might actually be rather entertaining. The 5-5 Wildcats don’t have the best results, but they are usually fun to watch. Conversely, the Cougars are 9-1 and still have playoff hopes if the dominoes fall just right. The points look a little risky, but I think the home team will cover. Zach thinks Arizona might be building something good for the future, but feels like State is clearly the better team right now.

My Pick:     Washington State

Z’s Pick:     Washington State

 

 

 

 

Houston (-3)                at               Washington

I’m starting Deshaun Watson at QB in my dynasty league this week over Ben Roethlisberger & Marcus Mariota, so the Texans better have a big game. They have taken the lead in the AFC South and have won six straight games after an alarming 0-3 start, so momentum is there. Meanwhile, the Redskins also lead their division, but since the other three teams are terrible I’m not sure it means all that much. It is interesting that the home team has been deemed the underdogs by the oddsmakers, but I am inclined to agree. Zach thinks Washington is overrated while Houston is on a roll.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Houston

 

 

 

 

Minnesota                    at                Chicago (-3)

Who’d have believed a couple of months ago that the Bears…even with the home field…would be favored in this game?? However, after trading for sackmaster Khalil Mack things have gone very well for the division leaders, especially with second year QB Mitch Trubisky looking like a legit first rounder. Conversely, the Vikings have been somewhat disappointing. At 5-3-1 they are hardly awful, and could take the division lead with a victory, yet I can’t help but feel like they’ve underperformed thus far. Chicago is certainly capable of scoring 30+ points, but I don’t think that’ll happen against Minnesota’s defense. This feels like a 21-ish to 17-ish kind of game, and I’m going to trust Kirk Cousins to get that one extra score on Sunday night.. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Minnesota

Z’s Pick:     Minnesota

 

 

 

 

Kansas City                at                LA Rams (-2.5)

This game was supposed to be played in Mexico City on Monday night, but apparently raging wildfires in Los Angeles are still less of a threat than a football field in Mexico that looks like the golf course at the end of Caddyshack after Bill Murray bombed the hell out of it trying to kill the gopher, so back to California it is. Could this be a Super Bowl preview?? Maybe. The Patriots, Steelers, & Saints might all have a say in that particular debate, but right now the Chiefs & Rams look like the two best teams in the NFL. Los Angeles suffered their first defeat a couple of weeks ago, but are averaging about 34 points per game with RB Todd Gurley already near the 1000 yard rushing mark. KC can score a lot of points too, so I’d definitely take the over in this one. With two prolific offenses I assume the outcome will be decided by special teams & turnovers. I’m sure ESPN would love a high scoring shootout that comes down to a last second field goal, and I wouldn’t mind either. It’s pretty much a pick ‘em game, but I think I like the underdogs to pull off a mild upset, and so does Zach.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

Let The Madness Begin

Happy days are here again. March Madness is the pinnacle of the college basketball season, packing the punch of a whole year’s worth of excitement into just a few days. It also provides one the rare opportunity to venture out on a limb and either look like a genius or a complete buffoon. It doesn’t even matter if there is money involved, although that’s always a nice bonus. Years ago at a former place of employment I was one of a group of about a half dozen guys that would gamble small stakes on everything from pro football to Triple Crown horse racing, but the crown jewel of our year was The Madness. The money involved was so miniscule it was an afterthought. It was more about pride and bragging rights, proving oneself to be knowledgeable amongst peers. I did not have that outlet for several years, but now, thanks to the various bracket challenges on sites like ESPN and Yahoo, I’m back in the game. And since I am filling out a bracket anyway I decided I’d share my deep well of basketball acumen (or slightly arrogant poppycock) here at The Manofesto. To my knowledge there is no way to insert a filled out bracket into this blog so it’s a low tech effort. I have faith that my readers can adjust.

Before I dive in allow me to share a bit about my methods and some things I have learned over many years of doing this:

    • I do not analyze, study, and stress out about my brackets. I print it out, go down through, and fill it out on the fly. My picks are based on what I know as an average fan and on my vibes. My choices have no basis in scientific investigation of any facts or figures.

    • Will there be upsets?? Yes. But don’t go crazy. The first round has 32 games. Out of those there might be a half dozen upsets. The 5/12, 6/11, & 7/10 games are where to look for upsets. #1 seeds never…ever…lose in the first round, and #2 seeds very rarely lose. Atleast one #12 beats a #5 each year…I don’t know why. 8/9 games are pretty much dead even, so a #9 beating a #8 isn’t really an upset.

    • After the first round it’s a free for all, although that 11, 12, 13, or 14 that got thru one game is unlikely to make it much further. Still though, there always seems to be atleast one. The trick is picking the right one.

    • I am usually a sucker for the underdog, but in all honesty power conference teams will beat a small conference team the overwhelming majority of the time. I put major weight on being battle tested. A team that won 25 games during the regular season but did it against mostly weak competition is like blood in the water for a team from a power conference that might have won only 19 or 20 games and rode the bubble into the tournament.

    • I take into consideration where the games are taking place. If a team is playing close to home and has a bunch of fans in the stands that is important. But it’s not that important, so I consider it yet don’t nuts about it.

So, without further adieu, let’s take a look at each region:

East

This is a killer region. Lots of folks seem to be expecting George Mason to upset Villanova, but I am taking the Big East, battle tested ‘Nova over the small conference team. Sorry Patriot fans…it’s not 2006 anymore. I’m also taking #11 Marquette over #6 Xavier. I am a lifelong fan of the WV Mountaineers, who made it all the way to the Final Four last season, defeating Kentucky (who was darn near an NBA quality team) along the way. Unfortunately that will not happen this time, and I think the Wildcats get their revenge in Round 2. I like Syracuse to defeat Ohio State in the regional final and make it to The Final Four.

West

I have #9 Tennessee taking down #8 Michigan, although that’s not really an upset. #12 Memphis over #5 Arizona fulfills that annual tradition. I also picked #11 Missouri to beat #6 Cincinnati and #10 Penn St. to beat #7 Temple. I also took Penn St., who barely made it into the tournament, to beat #2 San Diego St. in the 2nd round. I just don’t think San Diego St. has played anyone other than BYU, while Penn St. faced Big 10 competition all season. I have #1 Duke facing off against #3 Connecticut in the regional final, with Coach K taking the Blue Devils to yet another Final Four.

Southwest

I have Richmond pulling off another 5/12 upset here by defeating fifth seeded Vanderbilt. I also have #10 Florida St. beating #7 Texas A&M. That’s it for the first round upsets in this region. I have #6 Georgetown beating #3 Purdue and #2 Notre Dame to make it to the regional final, where they ultimately fall to Kansas, the second and final #1 seed I have in The Final Four.

Southeast

I’m taking Old Dominion to defeat last year’s tournament darling and National Title runner-up Butler, but remember…a 9 over an 8 isn’t truly an upset. The only real upset I’m picking here is #10 Michigan St. over #7 UCLA, and even that wouldn’t exactly shock anyone. However, in the second round things get interesting. Pitt a #1 seed?? Okay. But they’ll still choke as usual, and I’m predicting it will be against Old Dominion. #5 Kansas State over #4 Wisconsin is a mild upset. #10 Michigan St. does it again by beating #2 Florida, and #6 St. John’s…battle tested…will take down #3 BYU. In the regional final I have Kansas State vs. St. John’s, with the Red Storm making it to The Final Four.

The Final Four

Syracuse vs. Duke, with the Orange shocking everyone (except me) and quite possibly sending Dick Vitale crawling into a corner in the fetal position.

Kansas vs. St. John’s, with Rock Chalk Jayhawk emphasizing the “chalk”.

Syracuse vs. Kansas in the National Championship, with Kansas proving what many have suspected all along, that they are the best team in the land.

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