Pac 12

2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 14

 

It all comes down to this…for them, not us. We still have a few more weeks of NFL action, but for now we are all college football one last time. It’s Championship Week, when conference titles will be won and playoff berths will be decided. Last week we didn’t do too bad, with me (5-2) edging out Zach (4-3), thanks to a big Auburn victory that seems to have (thankfully) knocked Alabama out of playoff contention. Credit to Zach though…he has brought his season record back to .500, so I’m going to have to do my due diligence and stay on my toes for the remainder of the season. Most of the conference title games are at neutral sites with a couple of exceptions, and most take place on Saturday (with one notable Friday night game). Enjoy!!

My Season:        47-35

Zach’s Season:  41-41

 

 

 

 

 

 

Utah (-6.5)                     vs.              Oregon

Pac 12 Championship (Santa Clara, CA)

Oregon is out of playoff contention thanks to that tough November loss to Arizona St., but a conference championship and playing bigtime spoiler would be a nice consolation prize. Utah needs a domino or two to fall, and the playoff committee might hold a September loss to USC against them since the Trojans finished the regular season a slightly above average 8-4. But have you seen the Utes play?? They have the third best defense in the country, and their offense averages 36 points per game. In other words, they’re legit and would be a solid playoff team. The Ducks aren’t going to make it easy though. This is the Friday night game I mentioned and it should be a lot of fun. I think Utah has too much riding on the outcome and will play their best game. Conversely, Zach believes Oregon will really embrace a spoiler role.

My Pick:     Utah

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

Hawaii       at      Boise State (-14)

Mountain West Championship

I kind of feel sorry for Boise. Year in & year out they win 10 or 11 games and almost always play for the conference title, and their big reward is playing in the Las Vegas Bowl. Not that there is anything wrong with Vegas…I’ve been dying to visit there for years. Anyway, the Broncos have made a couple of splashes in the top bowl games, winning the Fiesta Bowl in 2007, 2010, & 2014. Will they receive a similar opportunity this season?? Well, first they’ll need to win this weekend, which I don’t think will be an issue. Zach thinks Hawaii is better than they’re being given credit for. He falls short of predicting an outright upset, but thinks it’ll definitely be closer than two TDs.

My Pick:     Boise State

Z’s Pick:     Hawaii

 

 

 

Virginia     vs.    Clemson (-28.5)

ACC Championship (Charlotte, NC)

First of all, I don’t believe that Clemson deserves to be in the playoff even if they win this game. Their conference is weak & their schedule is weak other than a non-conference win over Texas A&M. The talking heads can yap all they want to about “resume” and “body of work”, but the simple truth is that Clemson will receive a playoff spot because they are Clemson. They are being rewarded for their recent pedigree, not for what they’ve done this season. Having said that, I don’t think the Tigers will have any issues putting away Virginia. The Cavaliers have had a nice season and will head to a sweet bowl location, but they aren’t winning the ACC title. Will Clemson cover?? They usually do, so I’m just going to roll with it. Zach, on the other hand, is making the smart move. He doesn’t think Virginia will win, but he believes they’re good enough to stay within four TDs.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Virginia

 

 

 

Baylor                 vs.              Oklahoma (-9)

Big 12 Championship (Dallas, TX)

As much as I truly believe Utah deserves that fourth playoff berth the “experts” seem to be leaning toward Oklahoma because…well, they’re Oklahoma. People like ESPN’s Paul Finebaum are under the delusion that the masses would rather see the Sooners than the Utes compete for the national championship, but he’s absolutely wrong. Trust me, college football fans are tired of the same old thing. Most fans outside of Tuscaloosa are ecstatic that Alabama won’t be in the playoff, and we’d be just as thrilled to see Oklahoma on the outside looking in. These two teams just did battle a few weeks ago, with Oklahoma scoring a narrow three point victory. I think it’ll be just as close again, and I’m hoping for an upset. Conversely, Zach believes the Sooners will learn from the mistakes they made in the previous matchup and won’t trail the entire game, winning by double digits.

My Pick:     Baylor

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma

 

 

 

Cincinnati                              at                         Memphis (-9.5)

American Athletic Championship

Speaking of rematches, these two teams just played each other a week ago. Memphis scored a ten point victory, which explains the point spread. The winner seems likely to beat out Boise for a New Year’s bowl game, although that’s certainly not etched in stone. At any rate, I see no reason to expect a different outcome from what we saw last weekend. Zach believes Memphis will win again but the Bearcats will make it closer than the first contest.

My Pick:     Memphis

Z’s Pick:     Cincinnai

 

 

 

Georgia                        vs.                       LSU (-7)

SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA)

I don’t think I’d be going too far out on a limb to predict that the Bayou Bengals will be a playoff team no matter what happens this week. Worst case scenario is that they drop to #4 with a loss. Conversely, the Bulldogs have to win to hold onto a playoff spot. These two teams have not played one another this year, so that adds a layer of intrigue. It may be instructive to look at a common opponent: Texas A&M. Georgia beat the Aggies by six points a few weeks ago, while the very next week LSU defeated the Aggies in a 43 point blowout. I don’t think LSU will break a sweat winning this game and will have their backups in early in the second half. Zach foresees a defensive struggle and thinks that LSU quarterback & leading Heisman candidate Joe Burrow will make the difference in the 4th quarter.

My Pick:     LSU

Z’s Pick:     LSU

 

 

 

Ohio State (-16.5)                          vs.                       Wisconsin

Big Ten Championship (Indianapolis, IN)

Much like LSU I don’t see any scenario in which the Buckeyes aren’t in the playoff. I also don’t believe there is any way they’ll lose this game. However, I do think Wisconsin is being overlooked a little bit. That mid-October loss at Illinois really screwed up their season, but they are a better team than that, and RB Jonathan Taylor should be the Heisman frontrunner. I foresee a scenario in which Ohio St….with the bigger picture in mind…decides not to risk injuries to their starters by playing them in the fourth quarter. That might not mean a Badger victory because Ohio St. would have to be ahead by a significant margin for them to make that decision, but it could allow the underdogs to score a couple of times and pull closer. Zach likes Ohio St. RB JK Dobbins, but opines that the Buckeyes have choked in big games in previous years. He not only believes it’ll be a close game, but is picking the outright upset.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:     Wisconsin

2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 5

As I am writing this I’m watching the Packers play the Eagles on Thursday Night Football, and there is also a college game of little consequence over on ESPN, so a weekend full of gridiron action has already begun. Before we move forward though let’s travel back to last weekend, when we both went 3-2. That brings me back above .500 for the season, with Zach still a couple of games behind. The overall schedule isn’t very compelling this go round, especially when trying to avoid focusing on the same teams every weekend. I kind of miss parity in football and hope it returns soon.

My Season:        12-11

Zach’s Season:  10-13

 

 

 

 

Arizona State              at                California (-4)

The Golden Bears have the home field and come into the game undefeated, with road wins over Ole Miss & Washington. The 3-1 Sun Devils are coming off a tough loss to Colorado, and things don’t get any easier. This is exactly the kind of late night game I’d get excited about in years past, but unfortunately I won’t see any of it due to my new work schedule. At any rate, I still believe in my man Herm Edwards and I think he’ll lead his team to an upset. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Arizona St.

Z’s Pick:     Arizona St.

 

 

 

Ohio State (-17)                    at                Nebraska

So are the Cornhuskers back?? Ehhh…probably not. Sure they’re 3-1, but it’s way too early to say that head coach Scott Frost has his team back amongst the elite after losing records in 3 out of the past 4 years. The simple fact is they never should’ve left the Big 12 (which has ten teams) for the Big Ten (which has 14 teams) a decade ago. Conversely, the Buckeyes have their eye on a conference title and a playoff berth. They’re averaging over 50 points per game. Can Nebraska pull off the upset?? Well, anything is possible, but it seems unlikely. Can they cover the points?? That’s a much more interesting question. Usually I’m rather uncomfortable with such large point spreads, but The Vibes are telling me Ohio St. is up to the task. Zach strongly disagrees, and believes that Nebraska will “take out the trash”.

My Pick:     Ohio St.

Z’s Pick:     Nebraska

  

 

Kansas State                       at                Oklahoma State (-4)

Speaking of the Big 12, it’s the battle for third place (because we all know it’s going to come down to Oklahoma & Texas). The Wildcats are undefeated, with a notable victory over Mississippi St. a couple of weeks ago. They’re coming off a bye, which could be important. The Cowboys are 3-1, but there’s no shame in losing a close game to Texas in Austin. I’m not sure what to think about either of these teams, so it’s another Vibes situation for me, and I will lean toward the home field advantage. Zach thinks Oklahoma St. will pull away in the 4th quarter and get the win.

My Pick:     Oklahoma St.

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma St.

 

 

New England (-7)                 at                         Buffalo

The talking heads have been doing their best to make this game seem interesting. The Bills are 3-0 and tied atop the AFC East. The Patriots oftentimes lose a game they’re supposed to win. Yada yada yada. I’d love to buy into all of that. Nothing would give me more pleasure than seeing Buffalo defend their home field with a huge victory. Sadly I don’t think things will turn out any different than usual. I hope I’m wrong. Zach doesn’t believe in the Buffalo hype at all and likes New England’s defense.

My Pick:     New England

Z’s Pick:     New England

 

 

Washington                 at                NY Giants (-3)

Hey, have you heard that the Giants have a new quarterback?? While I think it’s too early to fall at the feet of rookie Daniel Jones and weep in the presence of his glory, I’ve always felt like Eli Manning was overrated and don’t think he belongs anywhere near the Hall of Fame unless it’s to attend the induction of his brother Peyton. The next several games won’t be easy for the Giants while running back Saquon Barkley is out with a high ankle sprain, so it’s going to be up to their defense to carry the team and let Jones ease into his starting role. The Redskins are 0-3 and a total dumpster fire. I’ve been expecting head coach Jay Gruden to get the axe for a few years now, and his stubborn refusal to replace QB Case Keenum with rookie Dwayne Haskins may finally spell his doom. Having said that, my expectation is that Jones will be made to look like the rookie that he is by the Redskins defense, and I’ll even go out on a limb and predict that Haskins will get in the game at some point and lead his team to victory. Conversely, Zach is all in on Jones and foresees a double digit Giants win.

My Pick:     Washington

Z’s Pick:     NY Giants

2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 2

The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. – Robert Burns

 

I know what you’re thinking…”Week 2?? What happened to Week 1??”.  Well, your humble Potentate of Profundity made a slight miscalculation. We did actually make picks, but due to a new work schedule (well new since last football season anyway) for myself and a busier than usual weekend I just didn’t get anything written & posted. In years past I could hammer out something quick on Saturday morning before kickoff if necessary, but that’s not the case anymore and last weekend it just messed up the whole deal. At any rate, in life one must learn to occasionally adapt on the fly, so that’s what we’re doing. Zach & I made picks on the following games a week ago: South Carolina/North Carolina, Northwestern/Stanford, Boise St./Florida St., USC/Fresno St., & Oregon/Auburn. Zach went 1-4, while I fared slightly better at 2-3 (thank you Southern Cal for not covering the points). Not exactly the beginning either of us hoped for, but we’ll just move on. The NFL begins their season this week, so to celebrate that and to make up for my previous error it seems like a fine idea to do some bonus picks. Enjoy.

Sam’s Season:   2-3

Zach’s Season:  1-4

 

 

 

 

 

Syracuse           at                Maryland (-2)

So I guess…after almost two decades of futility (with occasional sprinkles of mediocrity)…the Orange is allegedly competitive again. To be fair, they did post a 10-3 record last season and easily handled my WV Mountaineers in a bowl game in which the WVU coaching staff clearly phoned it in. The Terrapins beat the snot out of some junior high team last week, but does that really tell us anything?? I’m not ready to buy into Syracuse being “back” quite yet, but neither do I believe Maryland should be favored…even at home…based on one dominating performance against clearly inferior competition. Where does that leave us?? Well, hopefully with a fairly entertaining game. Zach believes Maryland’s hot start is legit and will continue.

My Pick:     Syracuse

Z’s Pick:     Maryland

 

 

 

LSU (-6)               at                Texas

Neither team was challenged a week ago, but we’ll see what they’re really made of now. If this game was in Baton Rouge the pick would be easy, but at home I think the Longhorns might have a legit shot to win. Texas has a kicker named Cameron Dicker…Dicker the Kicker, which I find entertaining in a juvenile sort of way. My vision is a last second game winning field goal in which Dicker just can’t get the ball where he needs to and falls a bit short. It’s okay. It’s common. It happens to every kicker. It’s no big deal. But atleast in that scenario Texas would cover the points. Zach thinks Texas might be a bit overrated, but also feels like LSU often fails to win big games. He’s calling for the outright upset.

My Pick:     Texas

Z’s Pick:     Texas

 

 

 

Stanford             at                USC (-1)

The Trojans won a tough battle with Fresno St. a week ago, while Stanford beat Northwestern. This game is essentially a pick ‘em, which means the folks in Vegas seem to agree that USC’s abysmal 2018 was a blip on the radar. They have a chance to make a statement by defending their home field and getting a leg up in the Pac 12, and I believe that’s exactly what will happen. Zach likes Stanford’s defense, especially considering USC lost starting quarterback JT Daniels to a torn ACL and will now be led by a freshman QB.

My Pick:     Southern Cal

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

 

Texas A&M                  at                Clemson (-18)

I’m really looking forward to this game. Fortunately it’s a 3:30pm kickoff, which fits into my day perfectly. A&M has a brutal schedule, and they’ll deserve respect for even becoming bowl eligible. However, I think they’ll do better than that and pull off a couple of upsets this season. Will that happen this week?? Well…no. Clemson is a well-oiled machine whose spot in the playoff is virtually guaranteed. Having said that, I’m a little taken aback by the points. I’m not sure if it indicates just how awesome the Tigers are, or possibly a lack of respect for the Aggies, which in my humble opinion would be a mistake. I don’t believe Clemson will lose, and the game might not be particularly close, but The Vibes are telling me it’ll be a 14-17 point victory. Zach likes Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence & RB Travis Etienne, but feels like A&M is also an improving team. Like me, he thinks the points are just too much.

My Pick:     Texas A&M

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

Kansas City (-3)                    at                Jacksonville

The oddsmakers have the Chiefs as one of the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl, and I don’t disagree. There is no question that QB Patrick Mahomes will lead the offense to some big numbers, so if KC’s defense evolves into something they could become almost unstoppable. The Jags usually have a solid defense, but they’ve been lacking where it counts most…behind center. Will QB Nick Foles change that?? Will he continue to be the quarterback that led the Philadelphia Eagles to a Lombardi trophy a couple of years ago?? Or faced with the task of being the unquestioned starter for an entire season will Foles be exposed as the journeyman backup many always thought him to be?? Those questions will be answered in due time, but in this specific contest I don’t believe Jacksonville has the firepower to keep up or a defense elite enough to stop the Chiefs offense. Zach doesn’t think Mahomes will put up MVP numbers like he did a year ago, but winning this game won’t be an issue.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

 

 

 

Indianapolis                at                LA Chargers (-6)

It’s been just another quiet, uneventful summer in Indianapolis. Well, except for the bombshell retirement of QB Andrew Luck before he even turns 30 years of age. Not to be outdone, the Chargers have been dealing with their own drama in the form of running back Melvin Gordon’s holdout. This game would probably be a lot more interesting with Luck & Gordon both playing, but their absence creates a sense of mystery & intrigue. The Colts’ coaching staff & front office can talk up new quarterback Jacoby Brissett all they want, but he’s got to prove it to me first. I’m rooting for the guy because wide receiver TY Hilton and RB Marlon Mack are integral pieces of my fantasy teams, but the reality is that it’s a huge change. The Chargers might have a bit of a dropoff without Gordon, but I think they’re equipped to weather the storm. Zach believes the Chargers are overrated, but Luck’s abrupt departure has doomed Indy’s season.

My Pick:     LA Chargers

Z’s Pick:     LA Chargers

 

 

 

NY Giants                       at                Dallas (-7)

I’m going to offer an opinion that some may find odd. I believe the Cowboys would have been better off had RB Zeke Elliott’s holdout lasted a few more weeks. I think Dallas will have a nice season and contend for a playoff spot, but in the end they’ll fall short like they always do. It might have been nice for Zeke to have fresher legs going into the last few games of the season. However, in regard to this game I don’t think any of that matters and the Cowboys will handle business easily. Zach concurs, predicting a three TD victory for the favorites.

My Pick:     Dallas

Z’s Pick:     Dallas

 

 

Houston                       at                New Orleans (-7)

This will be the earlier of two games on Monday night, and it should be really fun. My fondness for Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson is well-documented, and the team has made several moves in recent weeks that could prove to be helpful. The RB tandem of Duke Johnson & Carlos Hyde could be sneaky good, and JJ Watt will lead a stellar defense. The problem is that Houston is taking on my Super Bowl favorites in The Big Easy. A loss won’t destroy either team’s season, and I believe both will get into the playoffs. The home field is enough for me to go with the Saints, and Zach agrees, opining that New Orleans will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after being erroneously knocked out of a trip to the Super Bowl last season.

My Pick:     New Orleans

Z’s Pick:     New Orleans

2019 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

First things first…I am indeed aware that the college football season begins tonight when the Miami Hurricanes visit the Florida Gators. I usually get these rankings published earlier in August, but…well, that didn’t happen. You’re not interested in my excuses and I’m not really into making any, so we’ll just go with the flow. I don’t think the Canes’ nor the Gators will factor significantly into how things play out, so it’s all good. We know that out of 130 FBS football teams only 65 “power” conference teams (including “independent” Notre Dame) have any shot at the national title, and this season it feels like it’s a ten team race at best. As a fan I am still entertained by watching games, but I have to admit that the foregone conclusion that the playoff has become sort of harshes my football buzz. I need underdogs. I need upsets. I need some semblance of parity. I need a little variety from year to year. One of the charms of college football has always been that each season players graduate and new players come in, which means that every year is different…except nowadays its seems like nothing much changes. There have always been dominant programs, but there were still cycles wherein some teams would rise for a couple of years while others fell off a bit. That yin & yang was part of the fun. I hope that happens this season. I hope a team or two that everyone expects to win a lot of games unexpectedly loses a few. I hope a few teams that no one sees coming win 10+ games and challenge for conference titles. I hope…but I won’t hold my breath. Still, it’s nice to have football back.

 

 

 

25        Virginia Tech

Last Season:     6-7

Key Games:     10/5 @Miami, 11/2 @Notre Dame, 11/23 vs. Pitt

This season will go one of two ways for the Hokies. Either they’ll have another miserable losing season and head coach Justin Fuentes will be on the hot seat…or they’ll rebound with 8 or 9 wins and have a legit shot to win a conference title in a rather weak ACC. Obviously I lean toward the latter scenario.

 

 

24        Auburn

Last Season:     8-5

Key Games:     8/31 vs. Oregon, 9/21 @Texas A&M, 11/16 vs. Georgia, 11/30 vs. Alabama

Here’s the thing about the SEC. Atleast half the conference is going to get some attention from the talking heads early in the season because…well, that’s just how it is. Heck, I have five SEC teams in these rankings, and that’s me being conservative. But logic dictates that only a couple of those teams will really be elite. The rest will either fall flat & have disappointing seasons or fall short a few times and end up with a solid 8 or 9 win season. I think the Tigers will land in the latter category. The season opener against Oregon should be a good barometer of what we can expect.

 

 

23        Michigan State

Last Season:     7-6

Key Games:     9/14 vs. Arizona St., 10/5 @Ohio St., 10/12 @Wisconsin, 10/26 vs. Penn St., 11/16 @Michigan

Trips to Columbus & Ann Arbor don’t bode well for the Spartans Big Ten title hopes, but I believe they’ll rebound from a subpar 2018 and win nine games.

 

 

22        Central Florida

Last Season:     12-1

Key Games:     9/14 vs. Stanford, 9/21 @Pitt

The Knights hadn’t lost a game in two years until they ran into the LSU Tigers in the Fiesta Bowl. Do I expect more of the same this year?? Maybe. Out-of-conference games against Stanford & Pitt are important and could make a huge difference. It’s probably too much to ask UCF to go undefeated again, but I think a ten win season deserves some respect.

 

 

21        Army

Last Season:     11-2

Key Games:     9/7 @Michigan, 12/14 vs. Navy

Very few football fans pay attention to the Black Knights until the very end of the season when the Army-Navy Game has the spotlight all to itself, but Army has gone 21-5 in the past two years, which is quite impressive. I don’t think they’ll go into Ann Arbor and pull off an upset, but I don’t believe another ten win season is far-fetched.

 

 

20        Northwestern

Last Season:             9-5                             

Key Games:              8/31 @Stanford, 9/21 vs. Michigan St., 9/28 @Wisconsin, 10/5 @Nebraska, 10/18 vs. Ohio St., 10/26 vs. Iowa

Perhaps it’s the purple uniforms, or maybe it’s the fact that they were perennial underdogs when I was growing up but ten win seasons have now become fairly normal in Evanston. It might be the tenacity of former linebacker & current head coach Pat Fitzgerald. For some reason I have a soft spot for the Wildcats. This prediction could be an epic disaster since they’ve got to travel to Palo Alto to begin the season and also have road trips to Madison & Lincoln. However, if Northwestern can gut out a few upsets and win eight games I may be onto something.

 

 

19        Fresno State

Last Season:     12-2

Key Games:     8/31 @USC, 9/7 @Minnesota, 10/26 vs. Colorado St.

I’m a bit sad because my work schedule has changed yet again and I have to be in bed super early on Friday & Saturday nights so I can get up at 5am. That means that for the first time in many years I won’t get to watch hardly any late night west coast games. The Pac 12 gets all of the attention, but don’t forget about the Mountain West. It has become standard for Boise St. to get the infinitesimal amount of love left over for the MWC, but I believe the Bulldogs will emerge as the better team this year.

 

 

18        Michigan

Last Season:     10-3

Key Games:     9/21 @Wisconsin, 10/5 vs. Iowa, 10/19 @Penn St., 10/26 vs. Notre Dame, 11/16 vs. Michigan St., 11/0 vs. Ohio St.

Are patience wearing thin where Jim Harbaugh is concerned?? Possibly, but I still think he’ll ditch Michigan before Michigan cans him…and neither scenario may ever happen. This isn’t the early 20th century anymore…everyone outside of the state of Alabama understands how difficult it is to win a national championship and knows it isn’t the only barometer for success. Harbaugh has won ten games in 3 out of 4 seasons leading the maize & Blue, which is pretty darn good. The one thing he has to do to quell any sort of rebellion: beat Ohio St. Now is the time. This is the year. The Wolverines could lose 3 or 4 other games and it won’t matter if they defeat the Buckeyes in The Big House in November.

 

 

17        Arizona State

Last Season:     7-6

Key Games:     9/14 @Michigan St., 10/19 @Utah, 11/9 vs. USC, 11/23 vs. Oregon

I’m a big fan of Sun Devils’ head coach Herm Edwards. He might be a better talking head than head coach, but I saw some flashes a year ago that leads me to believe that this is a team that could pull off a couple of upsets and sneak into the rankings.

 

 

16        Texas A&M

Last Season:     9-4

Key Games:     9/7@Clemson, 9/21 vs. Auburn, 10/12 vs. Alabama, 11/23 @Georgia, 11/30 @LSU

No team has more chances to affect the National Championship picture than the Aggies. All five key games noted above involve potential playoff contenders, so A&M has a unique opportunity to be the ultimate spoiler…or be embarrassingly inept. Entering Year 2 of the Jimbo Fisher era I believe they’ll continue to build a solid foundation that will eventually lead to playoff appearances in the near future.

 

 

15        Stanford

Last Season:     9-4

Key Games:     9/21 vs. Oregon, 10/5 vs. Washington, 11/16 @Washington St., 11/30 vs. Notre Dame

The Pac 12 is stacked, and it’ll be really interesting to see which team(s) emerge to lead the pack. Stanford has its biggest games at home, and that could lead to good things.

 

 

14        Nebraska

Last Season:     4-8

Key Games:     9/28 vs. Ohio St., 11/16 vs. Wisconsin, 11/29 vs. Iowa

I’m really going out on a limb. After back to back four win seasons the Cornhuskers enter Year 2 of the Scott Frost era, which means that noticeable improvement is expected.  So does that mean going from losing seasons to bowl eligibility?? Or does it mean bursting back onto the scene with 8-10 wins?? The biggest games are at home, and just one upset might mean a huge turnaround for the program.

 

 

13        LSU

Last Season:     10-3

Key Games:     9/7 @Texas, 10/12 vs. Florida, 10/26 vs. Auburn, 11/9 @Alabama, 11/30 vs. Texas A&M

Ed Orgeron now seems to be firmly entrenched as the Bayou Bengals’ head coach, and that kind of stability provides a real sense of freedom for a program. A split against the four noted conference foes would be fantastic, but an early season non-conference battle at Texas could be the key to LSU’s entire season.

 

 

12        Utah

Last Season:     9-5

Key Games:     8/29 @BYU, 9/20 @USC, 9/28 vs. Washington St., 10/19 vs. Arizona St., 11/2 @Washington

Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to figuring out the Pac 12, but the Utes seem to be getting a lot of love. Anyone who has spent any time reading sports related content here at The Manofesto will recall my affection for BYU, which is why I consider that an important in-state contest for Utah even though BYU has only won eleven total games the past two years. I’m not sure what to think about Southern Cal or the two Washington teams…all three could make these rankings look silly a few months from now. One thing is for sure…the Utes are going to need to have some big road wins to have a successful season.

 

 

11        Iowa State

Last Season:     8-5

Key Games:     9/14 vs. Iowa, 11/9 @Oklahoma, 11/16 vs. Texas

Everybody loves to yap about Oklahoma & Texas, but Big 12 fans know not to sleep on the Cyclones. They’ve won eight games in each of the last two seasons, and with QB Brock Purdy entering his sophomore year I think bigger things await. I am predicting that they’ll upset either the Sooners or the Longhorns and finish third in the conference.

 

 

10        Wisconsin

Last Season:     8-5

Key Games:     9/21 vs. Michigan, 10/12 vs. Michigan St., 10/26 @Ohio St.

The bottom line is this…the Badgers have to upset one of the two Michigan teams because going into The Horseshoe & beating Ohio St. in October might be too much to expect. Otherwise, I expect a solid 8-10 win season, which is par for the course.

 

 

9          Southern California

Last Season:     5-7

Key Games:     9/7 vs. Stanford, 9/20 vs. Utah, 9/28 @Washington, 10/12 @Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Oregon

I’m doing it…I’m rolling the dice on the Trojans!! I’m not sure what the heck happened a year ago, but it was USC’s first losing season in eighteen years. Was it an anomaly?? Or was 2018 indicative of a backward slide that will continue for the foreseeable future?? Obviously I’m betting on the former, and in the words of Billy Joel I’ll walk away a fool or a king.

 

 

8          Texas

Last Season:     10-4

Key Games:     9/7 vs. LSU, 10/12 vs. Oklahoma, 11/16 @Iowa St.

The long road back to relevancy is about as complete as one can expect nowadays…all they need to do now is maintain consistency. A losing or even mediocre season now would be disastrous for a program that’s taken almost a decade to rebuild. Most “experts” expect the Big 12 to come down to Texas & Oklahoma, so the Red River Shootout in mid-October will be a huge game, but the Longhorns shouldn’t overlook Iowa St. just a month later.

 

 

7          Notre Dame

Last Season:     12-1

Key Games:     9/21 @Georgia, 10/12 vs. USC, 10/26 @Michigan, 11/30 @Stanford

Coming off a playoff season expectations are high in South Bend, but the schedule is brutal. One slip will knock them out of contention, and with big road games at Georgia, Michigan, & Stanford I’d be stunned to see the Irish go undefeated.

 

 

6          Ohio State

Last Season:    13-1

Key Games:     9/28 @Nebraska, 10/5 vs. Michigan St., 10/26 vs. Wisconsin, 11/23 vs. Penn St., 11/30 @ Michigan

Ohio St. is a football factory that recruits elite athletes and churns out winning seasons as easily as you & I change socks in the morning. However, the dividing line for such teams is whether they win 9/10 games and finish highly ranked or go undefeated and contend for a playoff spot. I don’t think there will be a significant dropoff under new head coach Ryan Day, and perhaps it is even positive for the program to be rid of the various distractions that accompanied former coach Urban Meyer. However, I don’t think you’ll see the Buckeyes in the playoff, and they might even suffer a loss to Michigan.

 

 

5             Oregon

Last Season:     9-4

Key Games:     8/31 @Auburn, 9/21 @Stanford, 10/19 @Washington, 11/2 @USC

Mario Cristobal started his reign as the Ducks’ head coach with a nine win season, so now anticipation is at a fever pitch in Eugene. A non-conference battle with Auburn to kick things off is a neutral site game at The Palace in Dallas. I don’t necessarily think that game will make or break either team’s season, but the winner will certainly be headed on an upward trajectory. I’m not sure what to make of the Pac 12 quite yet, but if Oregon can emerge from the pack they just might find themselves in playoff contention.

 

 

4             Alabama

Last Season:     14-1

Key Games:     10/12 @Texas A&M, 11/9 vs. LSU, 11/30 @Auburn

I don’t know about y’all, but ‘Bama has become a team I love to see lose. I’m just really over the whole thing. I know I should root for fellow West Virginian Nick Saban, but I just can’t. I’m an underdog kind of guy and The Tide has evolved into The Evil Empire. However, a year ago I opined that Alabama might have to lose as many as three games for the powers-that-be to leave them out of the playoff. We know for sure that they don’t need to win the SEC or even play in the title game. So here is how I see it going down. I think A&M and LSU will both provide legit tests for ‘Bama, but they’ll go into the SEC Championship ranked #1 or #2 in the country, lose the title game to Georgia, and still make the playoff.

 

 

3          Oklahoma

Last Season:     12-2

Key Games:     10-12 vs. Texas, 11/9 vs. Iowa St., 11/30 @Oklahoma St.

Sooners’ head coach Lincoln Riley…at just 35 years old…has made a believer out of me. Two straight 12 win seasons. Two consecutive Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks. With former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts transferring in to lead the offense I see no reason to believe that Oklahoma won’t win the Red River Shootout and claim another conference title. The Big 12 doesn’t get as much respect as the other “power” conferences, and it would probably be easy for the playoff committee to squeeze the Sooners out…but I don’t believe that’ll happen this season.

 

 

2          Georgia

Last Season:     11-3

Key Games:     9/21 vs. Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Florida, 11/16 @Auburn, 11/23 vs. Texas A&M

Beating Notre Dame in September is an absolute must for the Bulldogs’ playoff hopes, but fortunately it’s a home game. I’m not buying into any Florida hype, and by late November I think tough schedules will have taken their toll on Auburn and A&M. I also believe Georgia will win the SEC Championship. I would much rather see a Clemson-Georgia National Championship versus any matchup involving Alabama.

 

 

1          Clemson

Last Season:     15-0

Key Games:     9/7 vs. Texas A&M

Champion wrestler Ric Flair used to say “to be The Man you’ve got to beat The Man”, and until someone steps up & knocks the Tigers from their perch there’s no other choice for the #1 spot. When I look at the schedule it looks like A&M is the only legit threat they face in the regular season, and the playoff committee hasn’t penalized Clemson in the past for the relative weakness of the ACC so it would be inconsistent to do so now. Most “experts” seem to recognize that Clemson is on a whole other level at the moment, and QB Trevor Lawrence is special. He’s my favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 13

It’s Rivalry Week in college football, and it is Thanksgiving. Warm wishes to The Manoverse for a delightful holiday filled with food, football, family, flicks, & fun. I’m not gonna lie…last week was brutal. I (2-3) edged out Zach (1-4), but that’s really not saying a whole lot. If the Texans would’ve covered a measly three point spread and if the Chiefs were capable of playing a shred of defense things would have turned out differently, but those things didn’t happen. I scored 133 points in my dynasty league and still lost, and my opponent didn’t even have the best week in the league because another team broke a six year old all-time single game scoring record. Needless to say I’m a bit perturbed with the NFL at the moment, but fortunately the timing is perfect. In-state & regional rivalries are the bedrock on which college football is built, but conference realignment in recent years has had a negative effect on such traditions. It seems like an effort is being made to remedy that, which makes me happy. I had a hard time choosing which games to focus on, so what the hell…we’re just going to pick most of them. I’m pretty sure we’ve never picked this many games in one week, but with both of us below .500 on the season this feels like a great opportunity to dig ourselves out of the hole (or sink inescapably deeper into the abyss).

My Season:        32-37

Z’s Season:        27-42

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Mississippi State (-11)                  at                Ole Miss

Why can only one of these teams be good in any one season?? This year it is the 7-4 Bulldogs that look solid, while the 5-6 Rebels are fighting for bowl eligibility. Ole Miss has the home field and something to play for so I’m going with the upset. Zach believes these are two mediocre teams with potential. He’s uncomfortable with the points so he’s picking the underdogs to atleast cover.

My Pick:     Ole Miss

Z’s Pick:     Ole Miss

 

 

 

BYU                     at                Utah (-12)

The 6-5 Cougars are a perplexing program. I’m not sure why a conference like The Big 12 or Mountain West hasn’t scooped them up yet. Being independent doesn’t seem to be working out well. And I’m never sure what to expect from year to year. Conversely, things seem to be going just fine for the 8-3 Utes, who have already secured a spot in the Pac 12 title game. Is this a trap game?? Maybe. Maybe not. Either way the 12 points is too much. Zach gives props to BYU for beating Wisconsin earlier in the season, but he likes the home team in this one.

My Pick:     BYU

Z’s Pick:     Utah

 

 

 

Georgia Tech              at                Georgia (-17)

Could the Bulldogs be looking ahead to their SEC Championship clash against Alabama?? The Yellow Jackets are 7-4 and have only a bowl game to look forward to, but knocking their in-state rivalry out of playoff contention would be the cherry on top of a solid season. I don’t think that’s going to happen, but the points are just way too much. Zach thinks Tech’s triple option could cause issues for Georgia’s defense, but with a playoff berth possibly on the line he is going out on a limb and picking the favorites to cover the sizeable spread.

My Pick:     Georgia Tech

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

Nebraska                     at                Iowa (-9.5)

The Cornhuskers are a dreadful 4-7, but have shown signs of life by winning 4 out of their last 5 games. Conversely, the Hawkeyes are 7-4 but have lost 3 of 4. These are two teams heading in the opposite direction, and I smell an upset (or atleast a close game). Zach is predicting a low-scoring defensive battle and thinks Nebraska has the hot hand.

My Pick:     Nebraska

Z’s Pick:     Nebraska

 

 

 

Virginia (-4.5)               at                Virginia Tech

Okay…here’s the deal. Tech comes into this game 4-6, and they had a game against East Carolina cancelled back in September due to Hurricane Florence. If the Hokies win this game they are one victory shy of bowl eligibility. A deal is in place where Tech would play a game against my alma mater the Marshall Thundering Herd, who also had a game at South Carolina cancelled because of the same hurricane. That game will only take place if the Hokies win here, which won’t be an easy task against the 7-4 Cavaliers. Traditionally Tech has a significant home field advantage, and I’m hoping that is the case once again. Conversely, Zach believes the Cavs will get the easy victory.

My Pick:     Virginia Tech

Z’s Pick:     Virginia

 

 

Oregon (-17)                at                Oregon State

They call this game The Civil War. It is one of the oldest rivalries in college football, having first been played 124 years ago. The two campuses are less that fifty miles apart, so I don’t think there is any true home field advantage. The Ducks come into the game 7-4, having had a real roller coaster season. The Beavers are 2-9, so their coaster seems to be broken. Anything can happen in a rivalry game, but I’m picking the favorites to win easily. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Oregon

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

Central Florida (-14)                      at                South Florida

Way back when I did my pre-season rankings I placed the Bulls 12th and had the Knights unranked. I said that “UCF is still getting much of the love from talking heads this pre-season, but I’m not buying it”, while posing the question “can USF steal the spotlight in 2018?”. Well, so far that thought process hasn’t quite come to fruition. South Florida is 7-4, while Central Florida remains undefeated and is a Top 10 team. Both teams have something to play for…pride for South, and remaining unbeaten for Central. The two campuses are little more than an hour apart, so the home field probably isn’t that big of a deal. I can’t pull the trigger on an upset, but I think the Bulls will keep it closer than two TDs. Zach likes UCF’s offense to carry them to an easy win.

My Pick:     South Florida

Z’s Pick:     Central Florida

 

 

 

 

Washington                 at                Washington State (-2.5)

They call this The Apple Cup because Washington is the nation’s leading producer of…well, I’m sure you can guess. The Huskies were getting all the pre-season love, but at 8-3 have fallen short of expectations. Conversely, the Cougars are still in the playoff conversation, but they need a few dominoes to fall in front of them. The winner of this game will play Utah for the Pac 12 title, and I’m smelling an upset for the underdogs. Zach is predicting a really close game…possibly even overtime…to be won by the home team.

My Pick:     Washington

Z’s Pick:     Washington St.

 

 

 

 

Florida (-6)                             at                          Florida State

Wow…who could have predicted that this game would be a mere afterthought on a weekend full of other battles of much more interest & importance?? I truly thought the Seminoles would bounce back after a rough 2017 campaign, but at 5-6 they need a win to even become bowl eligible. The 8-3 Gators certainly aren’t terrible, but have been forgotten amidst all the love for Alabama & Georgia and even love for Kentucky & LSU. I’m going to go out on a limb and predict the upset since Florida St. will be looking to extend their streak of 36 consecutive bowl game appearances. Zach likes the Gators’ defense to get the job done.

My Pick:     Florida State

Z’s Pick:     Florida

 

 

 

LSU (-3)                       at                          Texas A&M

Do I believe that two loss LSU should be a Top 10 team?? No. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t a dangerous opponent for anyone who goes up against them. At 7-4 A&M is just about what we thought they’d be…tons of potential with good things ahead, but not quite there yet. I can’t overlook the home field in this one and think the Aggies can pull off a mild surprise. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Texas A&M

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

Kentucky (-17)                     at                          Louisville

It seems odd to be talking about this matchup on the football field instead of the basketball court, but that’s where we are. The Wildcats have had a really nice season and will land in a fun bowl location. Conversely, the 2-9 Cardinals have already fired their coach and look like they need to move to the AAC or C-USA because the ACC is just too good for them. I have no doubt that Kentucky will win, but the points concern me just a bit. I suppose it’s one of those “go big or go home” moments, right?? According to Zach Louisville is “garbage” and he likes Kentucky’s ground game to win big.

My Pick:     Kentucky

Z’s Pick:     Kentucky

 

 

 

Utah State                             at                          Boise State (-2.5)

The winner of this game will play Fresno St. in the Mountain West title game. The Bulldogs have the home field and a solid track record of winning big games, so I believe they’ll get the job done. Zach likes Utah St. in the trenches, but doesn’t believe it’s enough for them to overcome the home field advantage.

My Pick:     Boise St.

Z’s Pick:     Boise St.

 

 

 

Notre Dame (-10.5)               at                          USC

So this is it. The Trojans are Notre Dame’s final hurdle to the playoff. Normally that would not only be intriguing, but it’d make this the biggest game of the weekend. However, while the undefeated Irish have looked unstoppable 5-6 Southern Cal has not. Much like Florida State, USC is a traditional power now just battling for bowl eligibility. Can they get the job done and pull off a huge upset?? I wish…but probably not. Zach thinks USC will make a coaching change after the season, and as much as he’d like to see the upset he doesn’t believe it’ll happen.

My Pick:     Notre Dame

Z’s Pick:     Notre Dame

 

 

 

Arizona State (-2)                 at                          Arizona

Herm Edwards has the Sun Devils at 6-5 and heading in the right direction. The arrow is pointing up for Kevin Sumlin’s Wildcats as well, despite a roller coaster season. The Wildcats have the home field and need a victory to become bowl eligible, so that’s the pick for me. Zach doesn’t like Arizona’s defense (or lack thereof), so he is going with the favorites.

My Pick:     Arizona

Z’s Pick:     Arizona St.

 

 

 

South Carolina                    at                Clemson (-26)

The Gamecocks aren’t winning this game. Clemson has a playoff berth on the line and they’re not going to let their in-state rival steal that away. But what about the points?? That’s an awfully big spread. Might Clemson rest some players and hold something back for the ACC title game?? Nahhhhh. They’ll win by atleast four touchdowns. Zach is going in the other direction, believing the Tigers will take their foot off the gas just enough for the Gamecocks to cover.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     South Carolina

 

 

 

Auburn                         at                          Alabama (-24.5)

The Iron Bowl is always one of the biggest games on the calendar, and this year is no exception. I think Alabama is destined for the playoff win or lose, and they could even drop this game and the SEC title game and still be gifted a playoff berth. Auburn is 7-4 and has been underwhelming this year, but I expect them to play their best game against their archrival. I don’t believe the Tigers have a snowball’s chance in California of winning the game, but they’ll probably keep it closer than the oddsmakers think. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Auburn

 

 

 

Michigan (-4.5)                     at                Ohio State

This is it. This is the biggest game of the holiday weekend. For the first time in awhile the Wolverines are actually favored, despite playing at The Horseshoe in Columbus. The winner will face Northwestern in the Big Ten title game, but Michigan has much bigger fish to fry because a playoff berth awaits. However, unlike ‘Bama, they cannot afford to stumble. The Buckeyes have to have a lot of things go their way to make it to the playoff, which is unlikely. But I have to believe that screwing their hated rival out of a chance to play for the National Championship would be a fantastic consolation prize. Because a) I love playoff chaos, b) I know Zach will pick Michigan, & c) I don’t think the home field can be overlooked, I am picking the upset. As predicted Zach is picking the Wolverines to give Ohio St. an epic beatdown.

My Pick:     Ohio St.

Z’s Pick:     Michigan

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

A year ago, at this point in the season, the College Football Playoff had Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, & Clemson in its Top 4. Three of those four actually ended up in the playoff. So what is going to happen this season with Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, & Michigan?? Who knows?? ‘Bama will meet Georgia in the SEC title game, but one has to wonder if the Tide would still roll into the playoff even after a loss. I say yes. Clemson’s path looks pretty clear since they have no serious competition in the ACC. Notre Dame still has to travel to USC, and I’m not sure whether or not anyone should take Syracuse seriously. Michigan has to travel to Columbus, OH to face the Buckeyes to end the season, and if they clear that hurdle they’ll be heavily favored in the Big Ten title game. At any rate, there is still a lot of football to be played. Last week Zach & I shared dismal 2-3 records, and I think we’ve reached the point at which some bonus picks might be warranted.

My Season:     25-31

Z’s Season:     23-33

 

 

 

 

 

Oklahoma State                   at               Oklahoma (-19)

They usually call this rivalry Bedlam, but with the 5-4 Cowboys struggling this year after three straight ten win seasons the game lacks its usual luster. Having said that, State has beaten Boise St. & Texas, so they’re not all that terrible. The 8-1 Sooners lost to the same Texas team that State defeated, but they sit atop the Big 12 standings and still have a legit chance to make it into the playoff. Never say never as far as an outright upset goes, but I’d be surprised if Oklahoma lost at home. However, the question becomes whether or not they’ll cover the points. Zach doesn’t care for Oklahoma’s defense but he feels like State’s offense looks sluggish. Neither of us are too sure of an outcome, but we both think it’ll be a fairly competitive game.

My Pick:     Oklahoma State

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma State

 

 

 

Oregon                         at                Utah (-3.5)

The Pac 12 isn’t getting all that much attention, in part because there is no one dominant team. The standings are a jumbled mess and the conference champion will have no chance to make the playoff. Both teams are 6-3, but only Utah still has a shot to get to the conference title game, plus they have the home field. That’s good enough for me. Zach thinks Utah is DOA after losing their starting QB to a broken collarbone and believes Oregon will win by multiple TDs.

My Pick:     Utah

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

Texas (-1.5)                 at                Texas Tech

On the surface these are two teams heading in the opposite direction. The 6-3 Longhorns have lost two straight, including a heartbreaker to the WV Mountaineers, while 5-4 Tech gave Oklahoma a hell of a battle last week before going down. The Red Raiders have the home field, but I just don’t think that’s enough. Texas still has a shot to play in the conference title game, and I don’t believe they’ll screw it up. Zach likes Tech’s ability to put up points on offense so he’s picking the upset.

My Pick:     Texas

Z’s Pick:     Texas Tech

 

 

Virginia Tech              at                Pitt (-2.5)

If you would’ve asked me two months ago which one of these teams had the best opportunity to play in the ACC title game I would have chosen Tech without hesitation, but surprise surprise…it’s the 5-4 Panthers who lead their division and would be the lamb led to slaughter at the hands of Clemson if the season ended today. But that could all change, beginning with this game. I had the Hokies in my pre-season Top 10, but at 4-4 they haven’t lived up to my lofty expectations. Pitt has the home field, but as much as I adore Heinz Field when my Steelers play there, as far as I can tell when watching on TV the stadium usually seems half empty on Saturdays. The Vibes are telling me that Tech is still a better team, despite their mediocre record. Zach foresees a slow & boring defensive battle and likes the home team to win a close one.

My Pick:     Virginia Tech

Z’s Pick:     Pitt

 

 

UCLA                            at                Arizona State (-12.5)

Isn’t it amazing how quickly Herm Edwards has turned around the Sun Devils?? Atleast it feels that way. I don’t know if their record will end up being much better than it had been the past few seasons, but when watching them one gets the sense that they are headed for good things. Conversely, the Bruins sit at the bottom of the Pac 12, and it is a bit jarring how fast the shine has worn off of head coach Chip Kelly, who was thought to be one of the best in the business just a few years ago. I’m a little nervous about the points, but I’m going with the favorites to cover. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Arizona State

Z’s Pick:     Arizona State

 

 

Clemson (-20)             at                Boston College

Clemson looks like a lock to make the playoff, but have they really played anyone?? With the exception of a close out of conference road win at Texas A&M I’m not sure their case is all that strong. Can the 7-2 Eagles mount a challenge?? I’d like to see it, and I believe it may be possible. I won’t go so far as to predict an outright upset, but the points are a bit much for my comfort. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Boston College

Z’s Pick:     Boston College

 

 

New Orleans (-4.5)               at                Cincinnati

The 7-1 Saints just acquired WR Dez Bryant, and that’s kind of a big deal. I don’t think he’s a #1 receiver anymore, but throw him into the mix with Michael Thomas & RB Alvin Kamara with Drew Brees slinging the rock and New Orleans is just that much more of a legit contender. Of course I’m not even sure he’ll play at all in this game since he was just signed and might need a week or two to learn the playbook & shake off some rust. The Bengals are…as usual…one of the NFL’s forgotten teams, but the truth is that they’re a half game out of the division lead and a strong playoff contender. Could this be a trap game for New Orleans after the hype of last week’s victory over the Rams?? Cincy has the home field…but I just can’t pull the trigger. I wouldn’t be shocked to see New Orleans lose, but I’m not going to pick against them, and neither is Zach.

My Pick:     New Orleans

Z’s Pick:     New Orleans

 

 

Jacksonville               at                Indianapolis (-3)

Who would have believed before the season began that these teams would be tied in the cellar of their division?? The Jags were being touted as a Super Bowl contender, but at 3-5 they’ve hardly looked the part. You may recall that in my NFL Preview I called Jacksonville RB Leonard Fournette “an injury waiting to happen”, and lo & behold…he gone!! Meanwhile, Colts’ QB Andrew Luck has shown flashes of being what everyone thought he could become before he was bitten by the injury bug. The obvious concern is how Indy’s offensive line will hold up against Jacksonville’s formidable defense. Can Luck survive the game intact?? I’m not sure, but I’m willing to roll the dice and predict he will be just fine. Conversely, Zach believes the Jags will win by double digits.

My Pick:     Indianapolis

Z’s Pick:     Jacksonville

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 7

So if the College Football Playoff were to be played right now the four combatants would be Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, & Clemson, and if the Super Bowl was on the immediate horizon it looks like the Los Angeles Rams vs. the Kansas City Chiefs might be a likely matchup. Of course there is a lot of football left to be played and I expect some big changes along the way. I had a better week (3-2) than Zach (1-4) and have taken back the season lead, but that’ll probably change a lot in the next couple of months as well.

My Season:        16-20

Z’s Season:        15-21

 

 

 

 

 

Arizona               at                Utah (-13.5)

The PAC 12 title will probably come down to Washington or Stanford vs. USC or Colorado, but the 3-2 Utes and the 3-3 Wildcats are both dangerous enough to be spoilers. When Texas A&M canned Kevin Sumlin he landed on his feet at Arizona and I thought he’d do quite well there, but he’s off to a shaky start. Utah has clearly looked like the stronger team against better competition, which is reflected in the points. I am typically not comfortable with a two touchdown spread, but The Vibes are telling me to go big or go home for this game. Zach concurs because…in his words…”Arizona sucks man”.

My Pick:     Utah

Z’s Pick:     Utah

 

 

 

Tennessee                  at                Auburn (-15.5)

The War Eagles were getting a lot of pre-season love, but I knew they weren’t a Top Ten team, especially against a harsh schedule. Absolutely no one had any expectations for the Vols, and at 2-3 they’ve not altered that outlook. Auburn will win this game…the only question is by how much?? If it were being played on Knoxville I might give Tennessee a puncher’s chance of keeping things close, but that’s not going to happen at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Zach believes that Tennessee will keep things respectable for three quarters but Auburn will pull away and win big.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Auburn

 

 

 

Washington (-3)                   at                Oregon

I had the Huskies ranked as a playoff contender before the season started, but a loss to Auburn right out of the gate put a big dent in all of that unless a lot of other dominos fall. However, at 5-1 they are still in the driver’s seat to play for the conference championship. The 4-1 Ducks are still in that mix too, but this is probably a must-win game. Oregon QB Justin Herbert is beginning to get a bit of Heisman buzz, and he could really vault himself into the conversation with a big game at home against a Top Ten team. I don’t usually bail on teams that I heaped praise on in the pre-season, but in this case the home team underdogs are just too much of a temptation. Zach also likes the home field to make the difference for Oregon.

My Pick:     Oregon

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

Wisconsin                   at                Michigan (-7.5)

The Badgers were my pre-season #1, but a September loss to BYU is a real killer, plus they still have to go to Happy Valley to face Penn St. next month. So basically this is yet another must-win game. I urged the masses to pump the brakes on high expectations for the Wolverines, but at 5-1 they have looked pretty darn good after a season opening loss at Notre Dame. This game is in The Big House, which is certainly a challenge, but I’ve already abandoned one of my pre-season playoff teams today…I won’t do it again. Wisconsin’s size concerns Zach just a bit, as does Michigan’s offense. However, he likes the Wolverine’s stellar defense. But at the end of the day he feels like Coach Harbaugh still has some work to do and…much to my surprise…he just can’t go with the Maize & Blue in this one.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:     Wisconsin

 

 

Kansas City                 at                New England (-3.5)

This is the Sunday night game on NBC, and I’d definitely take the over…if you’re into that sort of thing. The 3-2 Pats seem to have found their footing after a shaky start to the season, which is bad news for the rest of the AFC. However, the Chiefs are undefeated and looked rather impressive defeating the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. I’m sure the TV folks would love to see a track meet where both teams score 40+ points, and that may happen. The winner will likely be decided by turnovers, penalties, & atleast one big defensive stand. I try to put emotion aside when making these picks, but I can’t deny that I am rooting for KC…hard. Zach figures that Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes has to have a bad game at some point, so it may as well be this weekend.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     New England

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 5

Unlike last week the schedule is loaded on both the college & pro levels this go round, to the point that we’re doing bonus picks despite serious reservations on my part. We’re already off to a shaky start and chasing wins is probably a bad idea. Ah well…c’est la vie. Zach (3-2) bested me (2-3) a week ago, and as a reward got an all- expenses paid trip to South Bend, IN, home of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Okay okay…his trip is work related and has nothing to do with these picks, but how cool would that be if we won awesome prizes for doing this?? At any rate, my philosophy of mixing things up & not picking games involving the same teams over & over is pretty much out the window this week, but good football is good football and I can’t control which teams are or aren’t interesting, so we’ll just go with the flow.

My Season:   10-13

Z’s Season:   10-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

BYU                 at      Washington (-17.5)

BYU really frustrates me. Every time I leave them out of my pre-season poll they turn out to have a decent team, while anytime I have them ranked they screw the pooch. At the moment the Cougars are 3-1 & a solid Top 20 team, including an upset of my #1 team Wisconsin. The 3-1 Huskies might not make it to the playoff like I anticipated, but they’re still hovering around the Top 10 and have a realistic shot at a conference title. I don’t think BYU will win this game, but the points are a bit much. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     BYU

Z’s Pick:     BYU

 

 

 

 

Oregon (-3)        at      California

The Ducks really let me down last week. They’re 3-1 and still ranked, but they would be an undefeated Top 10 team if they hadn’t given away the game to Stanford a week ago. Cal is a team that is perpetually overlooked in the Pac 12, but they’re 3-0 and ranked as well. I don’t know enough about either team to discuss specifics, but I think this will be a really entertaining game. The home team are underdogs, but I think they might pull off the mild upset. Sorry Ducks…you lost my faith. Zach likes Oregon’s offense to get the job done by a comfortable margin.

My Pick:     Cal

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

Ohio St. (-3.5)    at      Penn St.

This is the big one…the marquee matchup of the weekend. Whatever your opinion might be of head coach Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes, & everything that has occurred in Columbus the past few months the fact is that they weathered the storm and have been unstoppable thus far. They know a thing or two about controversy & weathering storms in Happy Valley, and the Nittany Lions have regained much of the allure of dominance that once defined the program. I thought Ohio St. would falter a bit in the midst of the Meyer kerfuffle, and I believed that Penn St. would sorely miss RB Saquon Barkley. I was wrong on both counts. It is a testament to how impressive the Buckeyes have been thus far that they will go into Beaver Stadium in front of over 100k fans facing a Top 10 team and are favored. I don’t really have a dog in the fight and simply look forward to a great game, and though I believe an upset is certainly possible I have to go with the favorites. Zach knows that I know that he refuses to pick Ohio St., but as long as they’re playing these big games there is always a chance they’ll be on our agenda.

My Pick:     Ohio State

Z’s Pick:     Penn State

 

 

 

Stanford             at      Notre Dame (-4.5)

It might get overlooked a bit in the shadow of the Ohio St./Penn St. game, but this is also a battle of two Top 10 teams. I’ve heard that sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, but Stanford seems to be both. They were very fortunate to escape Eugene, OR with an overtime victory, a game in which Heisman candidate RB Bryce Love was held to just 59 yards rushing. After a season opener in which he ran for only 29 yards I think Love’s Heisman chances may be dead in the water, but he’s still a dangerous weapon on a good team. The 4-0 Irish haven’t really played anyone since the season opener against Michigan, but I can’t underestimate their home field advantage. If Notre Dame wants to be in the playoff conversation they have to treat this as a playoff game itself. Can Stanford’s luck prevail a second week in a row?? I don’t know…but I think no matter who wins it’ll be decided by a field goal. Zach did get to visit Touchdown Jesus this week but he flies home on Saturday morning and won’t have an opportunity to overpay for scalped tickets. It’s probably just as well because I don’t think he’d be able to resist the temptation to wear Michigan garb into Notre Dame Stadium and may have gotten beat up by a drunken Indiana millworker. He thinks both teams are overrated but likes Stanford to win a tight defensive struggle.

My Pick:     Stanford

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

 

Minnesota                   at      LA Rams (-6.5)

I really tried to avoid the Thursday night game, but this one is just too damn enticing. The Vikings were my pre-season choice to represent the NFC in The Super Bowl, but I had them losing that game to the Steelers, so what the hell do I know?? Anyway, Minnesota comes into this game with a less than impressive 1-1-1 record after getting hammered by the Bills last week. The Bills!! Conversely, I have heard more than one talking head call the 3-0 Rams the best team in the NFL. It might be a bit premature to go that far, but it is undeniable that they’ve put together an impressive squad on both sides of the ball. Their defense has some issues with injuries, and kicker Greg Zeurlein is shelved with a groin pull, so this is going to be a test of the team’s depth. I’m not ready to jump on the Rams’ bandwagon just yet, and neither am I willing to abandon my Super Bowl pick, so I’ve got to go with the underdogs and hope defense wins the day. Zach likes Los Angeles to do just enough to win by a touchdown.

My Pick:     Minnesota

Z’s Pick:     LA Rams

 

 

  

Houston             at      Indianapolis (-1)

I really thought the Texans would bounce back and be good this season, but at 2-1 they haven’t looked as impressive as I’d hoped. The Colts are 1-2 and QB Andrew Luck may not be at full strength quite yet. It’s way too early to make a solid judgment about either team, so I have to believe in my original thought process that Houston is clearly better. Zach hasn’t lost faith in Indy’s signal caller yet. He doesn’t believe that Deshaun Watson & the Texans will suddenly find their rhythm this week and thinks Luck will have a big game.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Indianapolis

 

 

 

Tampa Bay                  at      Chicago (-3)

The Bucs gave my Steelers everything they could handle last Monday night, but the FitzMagic ran out of steam. With Jameis Winston returning from his suspension the quarterback situation for 2-1 Tampa is…fluid. Things could get interesting. Meanwhile, the Bears look like they totally swindled the Oakland Raiders when they traded for LB/DE Khalil Mack, although to be fair we’ll have to wait & see what Oakland does with those two first round picks they received. At 2-1 Chicago sits atop the NFC Central, although I think they’ll ultimately finish behind the Vikings. Tampa won’t be able to slice thru a porous defense like they did in the second half of last week’s game, and that will be their downfall in a low scoring slugfest. Zach likes the Bucs to pull out a close victory no matter who their quarterback is.

My Pick:     Chicago

Z’s Pick:     Tampa Bay

 

 

 

Miami                  at      New England (-7)

If you would’ve told me a month ago that the Dolphins would come into this game in first place and two games up on the Patriots I would have said you were insane, but here we are. It seems that most people are scoffing at the reversal of fortunate, unable to process the idea that Miami might actually be good and refusing to believe that New England could finally be reaching the end of their domination. I too am hesitant to buy into those things, despite my longstanding hatred for the Pats. I’d really love to pick Miami, but it just doesn’t feel like the smart choice at the moment. I’d be thrilled to be wrong. Zach concurs. He thinks Brady will throw for 450 yards and lead his team to an easy win.

My Pick:     New England

Z’s Pick:     New England

 

 

 

Kansas City (-4.5)      at      Denver

In my NFL Preview I said that “I really sense a decline coming from Kansas City” and predicted that second year QB Pat Mahomes “might take some time…to figure things out”. That may end up being one of the most boneheaded things I’ve ever written. The Chiefs are 3-0 and Mahomes is averaging almost 300 yards/game with 13 TDs, zero interceptions, & a 66% completion rate. Conversely, I predicted that the Broncos would go 2-14. They’ve already won two games. So the question is can Denver’s defense rise up and make Mahomes look like a rookie?? The deciding factor for me is that the game is being played in the Mile High City. That may be something that Mahomes has to adjust to, and it might just be enough for an upset. Zach loves KC’s team speed and believes they are a legit Super Bowl contender.

My Pick:     Denver

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

There’s no way to sugarcoat it…we both (2-6) did horrible last week. We are far enough into the football season now that I’ve begun to realize that many of my predictions & prognostications may have been a bit off base. I will need to reevaluate several of my preconceived notions, like not having much faith in a freshman quarterback or assuming certain personnel losses or changes may have a deleterious effect on a team. Perhaps a few of my assumptions will pan out in the long run, but this isn’t the start for which I’d hoped. At any rate, we move forward during a week when the schedule isn’t all that appealing. I do my best not to be repetitive with the teams we pick and try to spread the love, but there is no denying that the most interesting college games are ones pitting top ranked opponents against one another or that out of 32 NFL teams there are about a dozen that stand out as eminently more watchable. We are further limited by our own biases because it is difficult to be objective when it comes to certain teams so we do our best to avoid those games. Having said all that, we’ve done this for several years now and found a way to muddle thru, and so we shall continue.

My Season:        8-10

Z’s Season:        7-11

 

 

 

 

 

Florida (-5)                   at                Tennessee

These days when people gush about the vaunted SEC it’s all about Alabama, Georgia, Auburn, LSU, and whichever Mississippi school happens to be having a good year, but not that long ago the Gators and the Vols were sitting atop the mountain. Florida won national championships under Steve Spurrier then Urban Meyer in the late 90’s & early 2K’s, but they’ve only won 10+ games three times in the past decade and haven’t won the conference title since 2008. Tennessee hasn’t laid claim to any championships of any kind since the late 90’s when a young man named Peyton Manning was under center in Knoxville, and they haven’t won ten games in a season since 2007. Both teams come into this weekend 2-1, but I’m not sure anything of value can be learned from those games. It is interesting that Florida is favored despite the game being played at the massive Neyland Stadium. I’m sure there will be over 100k in attendance treating this like a playoff game, and I think that may work in Tennessee’s favor. Zach isn’t sure what to think about this game, but he’s rolling the dice on the Gators.

My Pick:     Tennessee

Z’s Pick:     Florida

 

 

 

Stanford (-1.5)             at                Oregon

The Ducks snuck into my pre-season poll and I thought there might be a chance they’d get to eight victories and win a couple of games they aren’t supposed to win. So far so good, as they’re 3-0, although this will be their first real test. Stanford is also 3-0, including an impressive win over USC. Heisman hopeful Bryce Love will be toting the rock after missing last week’s game with an apparent concussion. It’s a total vibe game for me, and The Voices are quacking. Zach believes it’ll be a close game for three quarters but Stanford will eventually pull away.

My Pick:     Oregon

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

 

Cincinnati  (-3)              at                Carolina

I predicted that the Bengals would win five games, finish in last place, and head coach Marvin Lewis would be fired. Right now they are 2-0 and atop the AFC North, so I may have been slightly wrong. Conversely, I had Carolina winning 12 games and easily capturing the NFC South. They are 1-1 so that prediction may work out eventually. Anyway, I’m not sure what kind of hurricane damage Charlotte suffered or if the storm’s aftermath will have an effect on attendance, but I do find it interesting that Cincy is favored. The injury bug seems to have bitten the Bengals, including RBs Joe Mixon and Giovanni Bernard. Even if both are good to go on Sunday that’s enough for me to lean in the other direction. Zach thinks the Bungles will screw things up if/when they make it to the playoffs, but he likes them in this game.

My Pick:     Carolina

Z’s Pick:     Cincinnati

 

 

LA Chargers                at                LA Rams (-7)

It’s the Battle of Los Angeles, featuring teams that were playing in San Diego & St. Louis just a couple of years ago. I suppose there is no real home field advantage. The Rams are 2-0 while the Chargers are 1-1, but that doesn’t really tell us much. I predicted both would win their division, although it looks like the road may be somewhat tougher for the Chargers. Here’s what I’m thinking: a high scoring game that goes down to the wire (maybe even OT) and is decided by a field goal. If that’s the case the pick has to be the Chargers. Zach thinks the Rams’ offense is just too overwhelming and will lead their team to an easy win.

My Pick:     LA Chargers

Z’s Pick:     LA Rams

 

 

 

Dallas                           at                Seattle (-1.5)

Having this game on the docket says more about the lack of exciting games on the schedule than it does my interest in watching. As predicted the 0-2 Seahawks are a shell of their former selves and look to be headed for a dismal season. The Cowboys are 1-1 and I still maintain that they’ll end up with a losing record as well. The home field advantage has to be respected for Seattle, as CenturyLink Field is usually one of the loudest in the NFL. I’m going out on a limb and forecasting QB Russell Wilson to have a big game and lead his team to one of the few victories they’ll have all year. Zach is putting all the pressure on RB Zeke Elliot to lead the Cowboys to victory.

My Pick:     Seattle

Z’s Pick:     Dallas

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 3

Thus far I haven’t heard of any NFL games being affected by Hurricane Florence, but there were a few college games postponed or cancelled, including my alma mater Marshall Thundering Herd at South Carolina and my West Virginia Mountaineers at NC State. Fortunately none of the games that have been shut down because of the storm were ones that we were going to pick, so that’s good. Godspeed to all those in The Carolinas battling the hurricane. We don’t really have to deal with that sort of thing here in Appalachia, but I can’t imagine that it’s an easy thing to go through. At any rate, Zach rebounded nicely last week (4-1) with the addition of NFL games, while I didn’t do so well (2-3). I’m still happy that football is back though, so in that spirit we’re doing some bonus picks this week. Enjoy.

 

My Season:        6-4

Z’s Season:        5-5

 

 

 

 

 

BYU                     at                Wisconsin (-21.5)

The Badgers were #1 in my pre-season poll and are off to a 2-0 start, though they haven’t played anyone…notable…as of yet. I don’t foresee the 1-1 Cougars being all that much better as far as competition, although they did beat Arizona and only lost by three points to California. I don’t doubt that Wisconsin will win, but the points are a bit much. Y’all know my philosophy though…go big or go home. Zach isn’t comfortable with the points either, especially since Wisconsin’s offense is typically a grinding, smash mouth kind of deal…but the kid is a riverboat gambler just like his uncle, so he’s taking a chance.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:     Wisconsin

 

 

 

Boise St.            at                Oklahoma St. (-3)

When doing the pre-season poll I anticipated that the Broncos could possibly go into Stillwater and beat the Cowboys. Boise St. has done nothing to discourage my high opinion of them, getting off to a 2-0 start and averaging 59 points/game and barely breaking a sweat. Oklahoma St. is also 2-0, has scored a lot of points, and has easily beaten inferior opponents. They get the nominal home field bump, but Boise has to be more than aware that this is their opportunity to really earn some respect amongst the college football glitterati. They’ve done it before in high profile bowl games, and I think they can do it again. Zach really likes Cowboys’ head coach Mike Gundy and thinks they’ll take care of business at home.

My Pick:     Boise St.

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma St.

 

 

Alabama (-21)              at                Ole Miss

The Tide is rolling with two effortless wins and scoring over 50 points/game. The Rebels are 2-0 as well and dropped 76 points on Southern Illinois last week. This game is being played in Oxford, MS and is the ESPN prime time feature presentation on Saturday night, so the crowd should be fired up. I don’t think ‘Bama will lose, but I think it is possible that Ole Miss keeps it respectable in front of their home fans, losing by only 15-20 points. Zach points out that Ole Miss is ineligible for the post-season due to NCAA sanctions, so this is their bowl game. He doesn’t think they’ll win, but agrees that they will cover the points.

My Pick:     Ole Miss

Z’s Pick:     Ole Miss

 

 

 

Arizona St. (-4.5)                  at      San Diego St.

I kind of miss Herm Edwards on my ESPN chat shows, but it’s great that he got an opportunity to coach again after nearly a decade away from the sidelines. He has the Sun Devils off to a 2-0 start, and I don’t anticipate that changing this week against the 1-1 Aztecs, even playing in hostile territory. It’s too bad I don’t have access to the CBS Sports Network at my job and won’t be able to follow this game late Saturday night. Zach shares my affection for Coach Edwards, who he thinks is a genius. He is a bit concerned that this could be a trap game, but is rolling with the Sun Devils anyway.

My Pick:     Arizona St.

Z’s Pick:     Arizona St.

 

 

 

Ohio St. (-12.5)            at                TCU

When I did the pre-season poll I ranked the Buckeyes 15th and the Horned Frogs 3rd. Furthermore, I said that “I think they’ll upset Ohio St. in an early season non-conference “neutral site” game at The Palace in Dallas…the Buckeyes have had too many distractions this summer and are ripe for the picking”. Now, I grant you that Ohio St. has looked damn good under interim head coach Ryan Day so far. They completely dismantled Oregon St. & Rutgers, and sophomore QB Dwayne Haskins has been impressive. Meanwhile, TCU has easily gotten to 2-0 by beating up mediocre (at best) competition. I’m pretty stubborn, so I’m going to ride or die with my summertime prophecy, although admittedly I’m not at all confident in it. Zach is a major Buckeye hater, so if I go down he’s going down with me.

My Pick:     TCU

Z’s Pick:     TCU

 

 

Cleveland                    at      New Orleans (-9)

Ugh…the Browns. I’m not really familiar with the ins & outs of sports psychology, but I have to imagine that Cleveland is feeling pretty good about that tie they got against my Steelers last weekend. Will that…momentum…carry over into a battle against the Saints?? New Orleans fell to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in what was easily one of the biggest surprises in the first week of NFL action. It seems like there may be some issues with the New Orleans defense. I try not to overreact to unexpected results until a trend develops, and even though I went against the majority of those assuming New Orleans will be a playoff team again this season by predicting a 6-10 record for them, I still believe they are better than Cleveland. Zach shares my trepidation about the Saints’ defense but agrees that their offense should be good enough to outscore the Browns.

My Pick:     New Orleans

Z’s Pick:     New Orleans

 

 

 

Minnesota          (-1.5)           at      Green Bay

Aaron Rodgers had his big moment las week, returning from some kind of leg injury to lead a comeback victory for the Packers on Sunday night. He has been diagnosed with a knee sprain and may or may not play against the Vikings. If he plays perhaps the game will be competitive. If he doesn’t play Green Bay is toast. Minnesota beat the 49ers last week, and whether Rodgers plays or not I think the better defense will win this game. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Minnesota

Z’s Pick:     Minnesota

 

 

Oakland             at      Denver (-4.5)

Coming into the season I thought the Raiders would be mediocre and the Broncos outright terrible, but perhaps I had that reversed…we’re about to find out. Oakland just couldn’t get their offense in gear on Monday night against the Rams, while Denver and starting QB Case Keenum didn’t look half bad in defeating Seattle. I’m not really sure what to expect out of this game. One team needs to turn things around, while the other just wants to keep the positive energy percolating. I suppose I’ll stay consistent and go with the Raiders, but I could be wrong. Zach thinks the Broncos will win easily.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Denver