Jake Locker

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 15

And down the stretch we come!! This is the next-to-last week of the NFL season and thus the inaugural season of the PPP’s. I had another 4-3 record last weekend (I am almost positive that I’ve not exceeded that success rate at all this year), bringing my overall record to 42-61-1. Surprisingly there aren’t a lot of compelling matchups this week. There are a lot of games where one team is already securely in the playoffs while their opponent’s season long ago went in the crapper. And there are a few games where both teams are bad. The one game with a somewhat moderate level of drama is a game I won’t pick because it involves my Steelers and I cannot be impartial. Nevertheless I believe that I have found 7 games worthy of our attention. We’ll see.

 

 

San Diego       at         NY Jets (-2.5)

Has there been any bigger train wreck in the NFL this year than the Jets?? If they have any Jets-Pin-Procompetition it just might be the equally abysmal Chargers, but of course for a variety of reasons the Jets get a lot more scrutiny. I think it’s safe to say that a good many of the personnel for both teams…players, coaches, suits…involved with this game will not be a part of their respective organizations the next time these two meet (whenever that may be). At any rate I think the Jets pull this one out, because how great would it be if, after all the love & hate for both Mark Sanchez & Tim Tebow, it is QB Greg McElroy who emerges as the best field general on the team??

 

Minnesota      at         Houston (-7)

Apparently Vikings QB Christian Ponder married ESPN hottie Samantha Steele this week after houston texans logo2just meeting her like 4 months ago. Not only does that make me question his sanity & decision making skills, but it logically makes one wonder just how prepared he will be to face the Texans’ stout defense. Houston already has their division won but is still battling for home field throughout the playoffs. Minnesota is in a dogfight for a wildcard spot. If Houston had nothing to play for I might roll the dice, but that home field thing is a huge asset so I think they’ll still be sharp and win easily.

 

New Orleans at         Dallas (-2.5)

Contrary to the opinion that I have espoused for months the Saints have not overcome their New-Orleans-Saints-Logo-244x300early season woes and will not be making the playoffs. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are still very much in the thick of the playoff hunt and could even win their division. This is a total vibe game. Logically speaking Dallas has everything to play for plus the home field advantage. However, they are also a hot mess. New Orleans has never recovered from all the offseason bounty hoopla, but they still have QB Drew Brees, and I am betting that he does not want to let his team finish worse than .500. The Voices are telling me to pick the Saints, so I shall comply.

 

Tennessee       at         Green Bay (-11.5)

Will Green Bay lose this game?? No, probably not. Will they cover the spread?? That’s a more Tennessee_Titans_Helmetinteresting question. The Titans have been a real disappointment to me this season. I have always thought that QB Jake Locker was the real deal, and I figured that RB Chris Johnson would rebound from a subpar 2011 and have a monster year. But for some reason things just haven’t gelled in Music City. Meanwhile the Packers just keep on truckin’ and have already clinched the division. It is unlikely that they are going to overcome the Atlanta Falcons for the home field, so what do they really have to play for?? Don’t be surprised if several Green Bay starters get a lot of rest these next couple of weeks. That being said I think the Packers win the game but not by double digits…so the Titans are the pick.

 

New England (-14.5)  at         Jacksonville

So this is what it has come to?? I am reduced to picking a game that wouldn’t be in doubt even if New_England_Patriots_Helmetthe entire Patriots starting lineup just stayed home?? New England is still very much in contention for home field throughout the playoffs, which should be sufficient motivation. Conversely the talking heads on ESPN and elsewhere are already talking about the Jags signing Tebow in the offseason. As much as it pains me to do so I have to go with the Pats to win big & cover.

 

NY Giants (-1.5)          at         Baltimore

The Ravens have already clinched a playoff berth but have also lost three games in a row. The Giants LogoGiants are always dangerous this time of the year because it’s usually when they shake off all that mediocrity and get hot. Winning their last two games would almost certainly net a division title, and since the last game of the season is against the pathetic Philadelphia Eagles one would assume that this would be a game the Giants would be sufficiently jacked for. New York has everything to win & lose…Baltimore knows it’ll either be the lowest seeded division champion or a wildcard, which is kind of like the difference between Burger King & Wendy’s, i.e. not much difference. Therefore, even though they disappointed me last week I’m going to choose the Giants.

 

San Francisco (-1)      at         Seattle

Who would have ever figured three months ago that this would be such a highly anticipated4 game?? Kudos to head coach Pete Carroll, who’s Seahawks have won 5 out of their last 6 games and look likely to make the playoffs if they can just win one of these last two games. Meanwhile the 49ers have won 4 out of their last 6, with only inexplicable stumbles against the Rams that led to a loss & a tie. I know Seattle has the home field here, and that crowd will be amped out of their freakin’ minds. But I also think that most “experts” would agree that ‘Frisco is still clearly the better team. I am an underdog kind of guy so Seattle’s success has been fun to watch, but I think they’re going to have to win next week against the Rams to secure their playoff spot because I don’t believe the 49ers will lose this one.

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 10

Well, I did it. I gave myself a bye week. It was actually kind of an accident. As usual Friday night snuck up on me, but I had other things going on and just wasn’t in a football kind of mood. But now we are back on track. Right now I am 26-43 and have discovered much to my surprise that the NFL is actually easier to forecast than the NCAA. I would have thought it’d be the other way around.

 

 

 

 

Louisville (-1.5)           at                     Syracuse

I suppose since I put both of these teams in my pre-season Top 25 I have an obligation to pick their game. Louisville has actually fared even better than I thought and currently find themselves undefeated & in the Top 10. The Orange, on the other hand, aren’t quite there yet. They need to win 2 out of their final 3 just to break even and possibly sneak into some lower tier bowl game that no one will watch. I don’t think it’s gonna happen this year, and I don’t think Louisville will have much trouble winning this game. I am a bit surprised the spread is so small.

 

 

Oregon State              at                    Stanford (-4)

This should be an excellent game. Both teams are ranked in the top 15 and could sneak into Rose Bowl consideration if the Oregon Ducks make it to the national championship game. But first they need a victory here. I am going to go against my usual modus operandi of leaning toward the home team by picking a slight upset. I have watched both teams play a couple of times and the Beavers seem like a better team.

 

 

Kansas State (-6)                     at                    TCU

K-St. is in a real battle with Oregon to see who’ll earn the right to be defeated by Alabama in the title game. It looks like, because of the way the BCS computer calculate the various criteria, that the Ducks will ultimately be that team, assuming both they and the Wildcats remain undefeated. But can K-St. stay unbeaten?? The majority of the experts seem to think so, and who am I to argue?? However, I sincerely believe that the Horned Frogs are a very talented team that shouldn’t be overlooked. I think Kansas State wins this game, but it very well might be in OT or with a last second field goal. So I’ll take TCU to cover the points.

 

 

Oregon (-28.5)                  at                California

Wow…both Oregon & Oregon State on the slate this week?? Call it the Charlie Simms Special. Hooah!! Anyway, if the Ducks can stay clean in their remaining games they’ll earn the right to lose to Alabama in the national championship game. They’ll get one of those wins here, but by how much?? The spread…more than 4 TDs…is awfully big. Obviously the 3-7 Golden Bears aren’t that good, but are they that bad?? I get very nervous about huge spreads like this, but Oregon has motivation. They need “style points” to impress voters and get all the BCS advantages they’ll need to edge Kansas State for #2. They have beaten every opponent they have faced soundly…three TDS or more…except Fresno St. (who they defeated by 17) and the USC Trojans, who they edged by 11 points. Something tells me this spread is just a bit too big and that Oregon will win by only 20-25 points.

 

 

Tennessee                    at                 Miami (-6)

The 3-6 Titans get starting QB Jake Locker back this week, which should be a big boost. However, the 4-4 Dolphins have won 3 out their last 4 games and have lost 3 games by a total of 9 points, two of them in overtime. Miami feels like a team on the rise, while Tennessee seems like they are stuck in neutral. But with the exception of a 30-9 trouncing of the beleaguered NY Jets every Dolphin victory has been very close, so the 6 point spread looks rather large and I don’t have any faith that Miami can cover, so Tennessee gets the nod.

 

 

Detroit (-2.5)                at              Minnesota

I had these teams combining for just 11 wins in 2012 in my season preview. Instead they have 9 victories between them already, just past the halfway point of the season. That being said they are both afterthoughts in a division with the Packers & the Bears. I’m not saying the playoffs aren’t a possibility for either club, but it’s going to be a tough road. So this game is all about pride. Unfortunately for the Vikings their star wideout Percy Harvin is likely to be watching this game from the sideline due to an ankle injury, and that will likely cripple their offense. That makes the Lions an easy choice.

 

 

Atlanta (-2.5)                  at              New Orleans

In my pre-season predictions I said about the NFC South that “The surprise might be in Atlanta, where I’m just not sold on the Falcons. QB Matt Ryan will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and by then I think he’ll be ready to flee The Peach State.” and said they’d finish 7-9. I may have been slightly wrong since the Falcons are the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten team. On the flip side I said that “I do not believe that a team can go through the turmoil that the Saints have experienced this offseason and not be affected.”, but still said they’d go 9-7 & win the division. The complete accuracy of that statement is still undecided. New Orleans did in fact get off to a rough start, but it remains to be seen whether they can recover and get back in the playoff hunt. It seems pretty clear that the division crown is out of reach, but a victory here could shift momentum in a positive direction and start a push toward a wildcard berth. I don’t believe for one second that Atlanta will go undefeated, and it might actually help them to lose now instead of at the end of the season. The Saints are the pick.

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 9

I am not feeling particularly verbose this week, so neither this intro nor my thoughts on each game will be extensive. I seriously pondered giving myself a bye week because hey…the football teams do it so why can’t I?? But at the end of the day I just couldn’t wuss out. There are several interesting games in both the NCAA & NFL, so you are getting bonus picks, which is quite magnanimous of me if I do say so myself. At any rate, I am 22-38 overall and hoping to slowly improve, so there is no time like the present.

 

 

NC St.                    at            North Carolina (-7)

Intrastate & regional rivalries are one of the coolest things about college football. Both of these teams are having decent years thus far (NC St. is 52, UNC is 5-3) and are in the hunt for a trip to the ACC championship game. When everything else looks fairly even I usually pick the home team, but my vibes are telling me the Wolfpack gets the mild upset this time.

 

 

UCLA                     at            Arizona St. (-6.5)

These are two more solid teams (both are 5-2) in the thick of a battle for the conference crown. Both still have games against USC, a foe they’ll have to slay to win their division. But first they face each other, and my money (proverbially) is on the Sun Devils.

 

 

Duke                     at            Florida St. (-27.5)

I never thought the day would come where I would even notice Duke football enough to pick one of their games. However, the Blue Devils are a respectable 6-2 and actually lead their division in the ACC. It looks like the oddsmakers aren’t buying into it though since they have made the 7-1 Seminoles nearly 4 TD favorites. I have no doubt that Florida St. will win, but I don’t think it’ll be by that much, so Duke is the pick.

 

 

Navy                      at            East Carolina (-3.5)

I had the Pirates at #18 in my pre-season rankings, so at 5-3 they have underachieved yet still have an opportunity to get there with a strong finish. Navy is a pedestrian 4-3, and I think they go down to East Carolina.

 

 

Seattle                 at            Detroit (-2.5)

The Seahawks are better than most expected, while the Lions have underwhelmed those of us who were convinced they were a playoff caliber team. That being said I think Detroit gets the win here.

 

 

Miami                   at            NY Jets (-2.5)

No one has really been impressive in the AFC East (not even the Patriots), but I think it is fair to say that most have been pleasantly surprised that the Dolphins don’t completely suck and have been bewildered by the circus that the Jets have become. I gave QB Mark Sanchez a pass a couple of weeks ago (pun unavoidable) and he came through. Then last week he fought hard before New England pulled out an overtime victory. Miami is riding a 2 game winning streak and I think it goes to 3 with a win this week.

 

 

New Orleans     at            Denver (-6)

Drew Brees vs. Peyton Manning. Does anything else really need to be said?? I think the Saints have things figured out after their atrocious 0-4 start and I’m picking them to get the win here.

 

 

Indianapolis       at            Tennessee (-3.5)

Neither of these teams has a prayer of catching the Houston Texans and winning the division, but this game is vital if they want to stay in the wildcard race.  Injured Titans’ QB Jake Locker is still on the shelf, and Colts’ rookie signal caller Andrew Luck is quietly have a rather decent inaugural season. I’m going with the rookie to get the upset.

 

 

NY Giants (-2.5)                at            Dallas

The Giants have looked impressive in defense of their Super Bowl title this far, and I see no reason why that won’t continue here. The Cowboys continue to be mired in mediocrity, something that is unlikely to change as long as owner Jerry Jones continues to run amok.

 

 

 

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