Oregon Ducks

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 9

It’s time to make the donuts!! By that I of course mean making our weekly picks. But first a look back. Last week I flew solo while Zach had a bye week. I went 4-1. Oklahoma, South Carolina, & the Arizona Cardinals were all victorious. The Dallas Cowboys lost the game but covered the spread so yay for me!! My one letdown was UCLA not covering the points in a loss to the #2 Oregon Ducks. So for the season Zach is 18-20 and I am now 21-17. This week not only are y’all getting bonus picks but we will be looking exclusively at college games. The time will come soon enough when the NCAA season is over and all we’ll have is the NFL, so we may as well take a break while we can.

 

 

USC                        at            Oregon St. (-5)

USC_Trojans2I’ve really developed an affinity for Pac 12 football. There’s nothing better than flipping thru the channels on a Saturday night around 10pm and discovering a west coast game OregonStateBeavers2that is just starting. I suppose I’ve just been overexposed to SEC/ACC/Big Ten (and the Big East when it was around) and am a bit late to the party with these pacific time zone teams. Or maybe they’ve begun to play better quality football over the past few years. Either way I am glad to give them some love. Southern Cal is obviously in rebuilding mode after firing head coach Lane Kiffin mid-season. A 5-3 record is definitely below the high standard the Trojans have set over the years. Meanwhile Oregon St. is one of those teams that are often sneaky good. Right now they are 6-2 and actually favored in this game…but I’m not buying it. USC is still USC, even if they aren’t quite as great as usual thus far. Zach disagrees and thinks the Beavers will win easily.

 

Illinois                   at            Penn St. (-10)

Everyone…including me…expected Penn St. to go in the crapper after the extensive penalties handed down by the NCAA in the wake of the Sandusky situation. However, under new head coach Billpenn-state-logo O’Brien the Nittany Lions finished 8-4 in 2012 and thus far are 4-3 this season. They are still ineligible for post-season play for the next few years, but credit must be given to O’Brien and his team for being a lot better than most of us thought they’d be. Conversely the Illini are once again looking mediocre at best, as they have been for over a decade save for a 9 win season in 2007. I’m not expecting any surprises here and expect Penn St. to cover the 10 points easily. Zach thinks this game is a toss-up but is going with Penn St. as well.

 

Michigan             at            Michigan St. (-4.5)

Intrastate rivalries are one of the best things about college football. This particular game may not be quite as glamorous as fans might have expected at the beginning of the season but it is still an michigan-wolverines-fan-gearattractive matchup of two one loss Top 25 teams who are battling for an opportunity to play in the conference title game and possibly The Rose Bowl. The Spartans have the home field but the vibes are telling me that the boys in maize & blue are going to win this one comfortably. Zach isn’t all that impressed with the Wolverines but they are his favorite team and he can’t pick against them.

 

Northwestern    at            Nebraska (-7.5)

It seems like just yesterday Northwestern was undefeated and hosting ESPN’s College Gameday. But since then they have suffered four straight losses. Nebraska sits at 5-2 and probably doesn’t nebraskahave a realistic shot at winning their division. This probably won’t be a real exciting game, as I expect a ground & pound defensive struggle. At the end of the day, no matter how much I’d love to pick the underdog, I have to play it smart and go with the Cornhuskers. Zach concurs.

 

Tennessee           at            Missouri (-12)

tennessee_volunteers_football_iphone_wallpaperA week ago the Tigers were a Top 5 team with an outside shot at a BCS bowl and maybe even a national title. But all it took was a field goal clanking off the upright to destroy that Missouri_Tigers_Helmetdream. Meanwhile the Vols are once again mediocre but showing signs of life. They narrowly lost to Georgia in overtime and then beat South Carolina before running into the juggernaut that is the Alabama Crimson Tide. I’m not saying that Tennessee is back by any stretch but they certainly have looked better than in the past half dozen years. I can’t pull the trigger on predicting an outright Tennessee victory, but I think it’ll be closer than 12 points. Zach, on the other hand, is sold on Missouri despite last week’s loss and thinks they’ll win this one easily.

 

Oklahoma St.    at            Texas Tech (-2)

oklahoma_state_cowboys_iphone_wallpaperOklahoma State’s lone loss was an inexplicable stumble against my WV Mountaineers who are not very good at all this season. The Red Raiders are coming off a tough loss to Oklahoma Texas-Tech-260x300last week. These are two Top 20 teams that are still in the hunt for the Big 12 title and this should be a good close game. Tech gets the slight home field bump, but I think the Cowboys are the better team. Once again Zach disagrees. He doesn’t believe in Oklahoma St. at all and is taking Texas Tech.

 

Miami, FL            at            Florida St. (-21)

It seems like just yesterday that this game meant something every single year. It was one of the biggest games on the schedule every season in the 1990’s. But then the game began to lose its lustermiamiu about six years ago when the Hurricanes fell off their lofty perch just a bit. Now Miami looks like they are back. Meanwhile the Seminoles have a young hotshot QB and more than a decent shot at a national championship. I was never a fan of “The U’ because they seemed to produce nothing but arrogant & entitled thugs. The powers-that-be have done their best to shed that image but I still can’t quite shake it and just can’t pull for them even if they are underdogs. However, the point spread is fascinating. I’m no expert but I have to think that one Top 10 team being a three touchdown favorite over another Top 10 team is a rarity. Do the oddsmakers think that Miami’s high ranking is a mirage?? Or do they just believe that Florida St. is really that good?? Miami’s most impressive win was over Florida, who was ranked #12 at the time but is now a rather pedestrian 4-3. Florida St. looked really good in their destruction of Clemson a couple of weeks ago, a team that at the time was ranked #3. I have no doubt that Florida St. will win this game, but I think it’ll be a bit closer than 21 points. Zach agrees.

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 10

Well, I did it. I gave myself a bye week. It was actually kind of an accident. As usual Friday night snuck up on me, but I had other things going on and just wasn’t in a football kind of mood. But now we are back on track. Right now I am 26-43 and have discovered much to my surprise that the NFL is actually easier to forecast than the NCAA. I would have thought it’d be the other way around.

 

 

 

 

Louisville (-1.5)           at                     Syracuse

I suppose since I put both of these teams in my pre-season Top 25 I have an obligation to pick their game. Louisville has actually fared even better than I thought and currently find themselves undefeated & in the Top 10. The Orange, on the other hand, aren’t quite there yet. They need to win 2 out of their final 3 just to break even and possibly sneak into some lower tier bowl game that no one will watch. I don’t think it’s gonna happen this year, and I don’t think Louisville will have much trouble winning this game. I am a bit surprised the spread is so small.

 

 

Oregon State              at                    Stanford (-4)

This should be an excellent game. Both teams are ranked in the top 15 and could sneak into Rose Bowl consideration if the Oregon Ducks make it to the national championship game. But first they need a victory here. I am going to go against my usual modus operandi of leaning toward the home team by picking a slight upset. I have watched both teams play a couple of times and the Beavers seem like a better team.

 

 

Kansas State (-6)                     at                    TCU

K-St. is in a real battle with Oregon to see who’ll earn the right to be defeated by Alabama in the title game. It looks like, because of the way the BCS computer calculate the various criteria, that the Ducks will ultimately be that team, assuming both they and the Wildcats remain undefeated. But can K-St. stay unbeaten?? The majority of the experts seem to think so, and who am I to argue?? However, I sincerely believe that the Horned Frogs are a very talented team that shouldn’t be overlooked. I think Kansas State wins this game, but it very well might be in OT or with a last second field goal. So I’ll take TCU to cover the points.

 

 

Oregon (-28.5)                  at                California

Wow…both Oregon & Oregon State on the slate this week?? Call it the Charlie Simms Special. Hooah!! Anyway, if the Ducks can stay clean in their remaining games they’ll earn the right to lose to Alabama in the national championship game. They’ll get one of those wins here, but by how much?? The spread…more than 4 TDs…is awfully big. Obviously the 3-7 Golden Bears aren’t that good, but are they that bad?? I get very nervous about huge spreads like this, but Oregon has motivation. They need “style points” to impress voters and get all the BCS advantages they’ll need to edge Kansas State for #2. They have beaten every opponent they have faced soundly…three TDS or more…except Fresno St. (who they defeated by 17) and the USC Trojans, who they edged by 11 points. Something tells me this spread is just a bit too big and that Oregon will win by only 20-25 points.

 

 

Tennessee                    at                 Miami (-6)

The 3-6 Titans get starting QB Jake Locker back this week, which should be a big boost. However, the 4-4 Dolphins have won 3 out their last 4 games and have lost 3 games by a total of 9 points, two of them in overtime. Miami feels like a team on the rise, while Tennessee seems like they are stuck in neutral. But with the exception of a 30-9 trouncing of the beleaguered NY Jets every Dolphin victory has been very close, so the 6 point spread looks rather large and I don’t have any faith that Miami can cover, so Tennessee gets the nod.

 

 

Detroit (-2.5)                at              Minnesota

I had these teams combining for just 11 wins in 2012 in my season preview. Instead they have 9 victories between them already, just past the halfway point of the season. That being said they are both afterthoughts in a division with the Packers & the Bears. I’m not saying the playoffs aren’t a possibility for either club, but it’s going to be a tough road. So this game is all about pride. Unfortunately for the Vikings their star wideout Percy Harvin is likely to be watching this game from the sideline due to an ankle injury, and that will likely cripple their offense. That makes the Lions an easy choice.

 

 

Atlanta (-2.5)                  at              New Orleans

In my pre-season predictions I said about the NFC South that “The surprise might be in Atlanta, where I’m just not sold on the Falcons. QB Matt Ryan will be a free agent after the 2013 season, and by then I think he’ll be ready to flee The Peach State.” and said they’d finish 7-9. I may have been slightly wrong since the Falcons are the NFL’s only remaining unbeaten team. On the flip side I said that “I do not believe that a team can go through the turmoil that the Saints have experienced this offseason and not be affected.”, but still said they’d go 9-7 & win the division. The complete accuracy of that statement is still undecided. New Orleans did in fact get off to a rough start, but it remains to be seen whether they can recover and get back in the playoff hunt. It seems pretty clear that the division crown is out of reach, but a victory here could shift momentum in a positive direction and start a push toward a wildcard berth. I don’t believe for one second that Atlanta will go undefeated, and it might actually help them to lose now instead of at the end of the season. The Saints are the pick.

 

 

 

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