2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 5

Unlike last week the schedule is loaded on both the college & pro levels this go round, to the point that we’re doing bonus picks despite serious reservations on my part. We’re already off to a shaky start and chasing wins is probably a bad idea. Ah well…c’est la vie. Zach (3-2) bested me (2-3) a week ago, and as a reward got an all- expenses paid trip to South Bend, IN, home of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Okay okay…his trip is work related and has nothing to do with these picks, but how cool would that be if we won awesome prizes for doing this?? At any rate, my philosophy of mixing things up & not picking games involving the same teams over & over is pretty much out the window this week, but good football is good football and I can’t control which teams are or aren’t interesting, so we’ll just go with the flow.

My Season:   10-13

Z’s Season:   10-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

BYU                 at      Washington (-17.5)

BYU really frustrates me. Every time I leave them out of my pre-season poll they turn out to have a decent team, while anytime I have them ranked they screw the pooch. At the moment the Cougars are 3-1 & a solid Top 20 team, including an upset of my #1 team Wisconsin. The 3-1 Huskies might not make it to the playoff like I anticipated, but they’re still hovering around the Top 10 and have a realistic shot at a conference title. I don’t think BYU will win this game, but the points are a bit much. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     BYU

Z’s Pick:     BYU

 

 

 

 

Oregon (-3)        at      California

The Ducks really let me down last week. They’re 3-1 and still ranked, but they would be an undefeated Top 10 team if they hadn’t given away the game to Stanford a week ago. Cal is a team that is perpetually overlooked in the Pac 12, but they’re 3-0 and ranked as well. I don’t know enough about either team to discuss specifics, but I think this will be a really entertaining game. The home team are underdogs, but I think they might pull off the mild upset. Sorry Ducks…you lost my faith. Zach likes Oregon’s offense to get the job done by a comfortable margin.

My Pick:     Cal

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

Ohio St. (-3.5)    at      Penn St.

This is the big one…the marquee matchup of the weekend. Whatever your opinion might be of head coach Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes, & everything that has occurred in Columbus the past few months the fact is that they weathered the storm and have been unstoppable thus far. They know a thing or two about controversy & weathering storms in Happy Valley, and the Nittany Lions have regained much of the allure of dominance that once defined the program. I thought Ohio St. would falter a bit in the midst of the Meyer kerfuffle, and I believed that Penn St. would sorely miss RB Saquon Barkley. I was wrong on both counts. It is a testament to how impressive the Buckeyes have been thus far that they will go into Beaver Stadium in front of over 100k fans facing a Top 10 team and are favored. I don’t really have a dog in the fight and simply look forward to a great game, and though I believe an upset is certainly possible I have to go with the favorites. Zach knows that I know that he refuses to pick Ohio St., but as long as they’re playing these big games there is always a chance they’ll be on our agenda.

My Pick:     Ohio State

Z’s Pick:     Penn State

 

 

 

Stanford             at      Notre Dame (-4.5)

It might get overlooked a bit in the shadow of the Ohio St./Penn St. game, but this is also a battle of two Top 10 teams. I’ve heard that sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, but Stanford seems to be both. They were very fortunate to escape Eugene, OR with an overtime victory, a game in which Heisman candidate RB Bryce Love was held to just 59 yards rushing. After a season opener in which he ran for only 29 yards I think Love’s Heisman chances may be dead in the water, but he’s still a dangerous weapon on a good team. The 4-0 Irish haven’t really played anyone since the season opener against Michigan, but I can’t underestimate their home field advantage. If Notre Dame wants to be in the playoff conversation they have to treat this as a playoff game itself. Can Stanford’s luck prevail a second week in a row?? I don’t know…but I think no matter who wins it’ll be decided by a field goal. Zach did get to visit Touchdown Jesus this week but he flies home on Saturday morning and won’t have an opportunity to overpay for scalped tickets. It’s probably just as well because I don’t think he’d be able to resist the temptation to wear Michigan garb into Notre Dame Stadium and may have gotten beat up by a drunken Indiana millworker. He thinks both teams are overrated but likes Stanford to win a tight defensive struggle.

My Pick:     Stanford

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

 

Minnesota                   at      LA Rams (-6.5)

I really tried to avoid the Thursday night game, but this one is just too damn enticing. The Vikings were my pre-season choice to represent the NFC in The Super Bowl, but I had them losing that game to the Steelers, so what the hell do I know?? Anyway, Minnesota comes into this game with a less than impressive 1-1-1 record after getting hammered by the Bills last week. The Bills!! Conversely, I have heard more than one talking head call the 3-0 Rams the best team in the NFL. It might be a bit premature to go that far, but it is undeniable that they’ve put together an impressive squad on both sides of the ball. Their defense has some issues with injuries, and kicker Greg Zeurlein is shelved with a groin pull, so this is going to be a test of the team’s depth. I’m not ready to jump on the Rams’ bandwagon just yet, and neither am I willing to abandon my Super Bowl pick, so I’ve got to go with the underdogs and hope defense wins the day. Zach likes Los Angeles to do just enough to win by a touchdown.

My Pick:     Minnesota

Z’s Pick:     LA Rams

 

 

  

Houston             at      Indianapolis (-1)

I really thought the Texans would bounce back and be good this season, but at 2-1 they haven’t looked as impressive as I’d hoped. The Colts are 1-2 and QB Andrew Luck may not be at full strength quite yet. It’s way too early to make a solid judgment about either team, so I have to believe in my original thought process that Houston is clearly better. Zach hasn’t lost faith in Indy’s signal caller yet. He doesn’t believe that Deshaun Watson & the Texans will suddenly find their rhythm this week and thinks Luck will have a big game.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Indianapolis

 

 

 

Tampa Bay                  at      Chicago (-3)

The Bucs gave my Steelers everything they could handle last Monday night, but the FitzMagic ran out of steam. With Jameis Winston returning from his suspension the quarterback situation for 2-1 Tampa is…fluid. Things could get interesting. Meanwhile, the Bears look like they totally swindled the Oakland Raiders when they traded for LB/DE Khalil Mack, although to be fair we’ll have to wait & see what Oakland does with those two first round picks they received. At 2-1 Chicago sits atop the NFC Central, although I think they’ll ultimately finish behind the Vikings. Tampa won’t be able to slice thru a porous defense like they did in the second half of last week’s game, and that will be their downfall in a low scoring slugfest. Zach likes the Bucs to pull out a close victory no matter who their quarterback is.

My Pick:     Chicago

Z’s Pick:     Tampa Bay

 

 

 

Miami                  at      New England (-7)

If you would’ve told me a month ago that the Dolphins would come into this game in first place and two games up on the Patriots I would have said you were insane, but here we are. It seems that most people are scoffing at the reversal of fortunate, unable to process the idea that Miami might actually be good and refusing to believe that New England could finally be reaching the end of their domination. I too am hesitant to buy into those things, despite my longstanding hatred for the Pats. I’d really love to pick Miami, but it just doesn’t feel like the smart choice at the moment. I’d be thrilled to be wrong. Zach concurs. He thinks Brady will throw for 450 yards and lead his team to an easy win.

My Pick:     New England

Z’s Pick:     New England

 

 

 

Kansas City (-4.5)      at      Denver

In my NFL Preview I said that “I really sense a decline coming from Kansas City” and predicted that second year QB Pat Mahomes “might take some time…to figure things out”. That may end up being one of the most boneheaded things I’ve ever written. The Chiefs are 3-0 and Mahomes is averaging almost 300 yards/game with 13 TDs, zero interceptions, & a 66% completion rate. Conversely, I predicted that the Broncos would go 2-14. They’ve already won two games. So the question is can Denver’s defense rise up and make Mahomes look like a rookie?? The deciding factor for me is that the game is being played in the Mile High City. That may be something that Mahomes has to adjust to, and it might just be enough for an upset. Zach loves KC’s team speed and believes they are a legit Super Bowl contender.

My Pick:     Denver

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 17

football-introducing-the-science_1Before we move forward with this week’s picks I must correct an oversight on my part. The past couple of weeks we’ve been dealing strictly with NFL games because I indicated the college football season was over except for the bowl games. The problem is that isn’t exactly true. There are playoff games going on at the FCS, Division II, & other “lower” levels of NCAA football. We wouldn’t pick those games because neither Zach nor myself are knowledgeable at all about any of the teams involved, but I feel like it is important to recognize that those games exist. As a student at Marshall University in the early 90’s I witnessed multiple 1-AA playoff games and was privileged to be in the stadium when my Thundering Herd won the national title in 1992. There are a lot of football snobs out there that only acknowledge “big boy football” as played by the SEC, Big Ten, Notre Dame, Florida State, etc., but the football played in other divisions can be just as exciting & fun to watch, and there have been no shortage of players from lesser known smaller schools that have made an impact in the NFL. Their putrid 2016 season notwithstanding, part of me has often wished Marshall would have stayed in 1-AA/FCS. Since moving up the best they have been able to do is battle for a MAC or C-USA conference title and then play in some prosaic December bowl game that no one cares about or remembers. As a fan it was much more interesting to see my team move thru a 16 team playoff and have an opportunity to play for a championship. At any rate, I felt it important to recognize those other, often overlooked & marginalized, levels of college football. Last week both Zach & I were at our mediocre best, he at 2-3 and I at 3-2. Average seems to be our thing this season. A few NFL teams have already clinched playoff berths, but these last few weeks will see a lot of jockeying for position. Since Sunday is Christmas Day much of the action will take place the day before, which is fine with me. Merry Christmas fellow football fans. I sincerely wish all of you a most delightful holiday.

My Season:        47-46

Z’s Season:        33-60

 

 

 

 

 

Indianapolis      at      Oakland (-4)

raidersThe Raiders are already in the playoff field, while the Colts really need to win their final two games and even then face an uphill battle. I’d really Indianapolis_Colts_Helmetlove to pick Indy since I predicted that they’d win the division, but it just doesn’t feel like the chips are falling in their favor. I think Oakland is just too good. Zach has apparently been infected with my Vibes. He’s picking the upset though he doesn’t really know why. Good luck with that dude…it rarely works out well for me.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Indianapolis

 

 

Tampa Bay        at      New Orleans (-3)

tampa-bay-buccaneersThe Bucs still have an opportunity to win their division, but winning their last two games is probably necessary. Even a wildcard spot is going to be tough. Conversely, the Saints can only play spoiler and have to win out just to finish at .500. I don’t expect any surprises and neither does Zach.

My Pick:     Tampa Bay

Z’s Pick:     Tampa Bay

 

 

Minnesota                    at      Green Bay (-6.5)

After beginning the season 5-0 the Vikings have lost 7 of the last 9 games. Their defense is still formidable, but they’ve sputtered offensively and QB Sam Bradford no Green_Bay_Packers_Helmetlonger looks like a long term answer in case Teddy Bridgewater is unable to make a successful comeback. The Packers have had a roller coaster season but are riding a four game winning streak and have an outside shot at the playoffs…maybe even a division title. These are simply two teams going in opposite directions and I see no evidence the tide will turn this week. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Green Bay

Z’s Pick:     Green Bay

 

 

Denver                at      Kansas City (-4)

kc-chiefs-logoI told y’all the Chiefs were going to the playoffs, and a win here would probably secure a spot. Denver’s quarterback situation has torpedoed anybroncos-4759 chance they had of achieving the success they had last year. Peyton Manning retiring has that effect. Although it does look like they made the right choice to let Brock Osweiler walk in free agency. There will be no upset here, atleast in my opinion. Conversely, Zach thinks Denver, with their back against the wall and in a dogfight for a playoff spot, will get the job done.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Denver

 

 

Detroit                 at      Dallas (-7)

Detroit_Lions_HelmetThe Cowboys are going to win their division before the inevitable postseason crash & burn. The Lions have snuck up on everybody, but they dallas-cowboys-logo2have Green Bay hot on their trail and need to win out to secure a division title. This is your Monday night game and I am predicting an early start to Dallas’ certain demise. Zach disagrees. He predicts it’ll be a blowout for the favorites.

My Pick:     Detroit

Z’s Pick:     Dallas

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 15

football-introducing-the-science_1The only college games remaining are this weekend’s Army-Navy contest and all of the bowl games. We’ll be doing our bowl picks soon, but as far as this weekly deal goes it’s all NFL all the time from now on. Last week’s NCAA conference title games worked out a little better for me than Zach, as I was 4-1 while he was 0-5. I have a lot of thoughts about the college playoff and related matters, but this isn’t the time. Stay tuned. For now the NFL has its own playoff race heating up, so let’s focus on that.

My Season:        44-39

Z’s Season:        30-53

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oakland              at      Kansas City (-3.5)

I pretty much nailed the AFC West in my season preview, and as predicted these are the two teams battling it out for the division lead. The Raiders are riding a 6 game raiderswinning streak and I look like a genius in my dynasty fantasy league for snagging QB Derek Carr. The Chiefs get the home field bump, but a close examination of their schedule reflects the fact that six of their nine victories have been by less than a touchdown. I’m not sure that’s meaningful since a win is a win and they’d only need to win this game by four points, but if Oakland’s offense is firing on all cylinders it’ll be a tough trick for KC to pull off. Zach has concerns about the Raider defense but agrees that their offense will be the deciding factor in pulling out a close game.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Oakland

 

 

Houston             at      Indianapolis (-6.5)

The AFC South is even more mediocre than most expected. 8-8 might win the division. Indy has the advantage as long as QB Andrew Luck stays healthy. Conversely, Indianapolis_Colts_HelmetBrock Osweiler has been a $72 million disappointment for the Texans, although I think he’ll be alright in the long run. At this point I think the Colts have the better team and certainly the better signal caller, which should be enough to get them into the postseason. Zach believes Luck is good enough to lead his team to a two touchdown victory.

My Pick:     Indianapolis

Z’s Pick:     Indianapolis

 

 

Seattle (-2.5)      at      Green Bay

A few months ago this would have looked like a great matchup on paper, but with the Packers losing 5 out of the last 8 games and after Seattle’s decimation of the seattle-seahawks1Carolina Panthers last weekend it is difficult to get too excited about it now. I am far too lethargic to do any research, but I have to believe it is rare for Green Bay to be underdogs at home on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, especially in December. I’d love to pick the upset, but I just can’t pull the trigger. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Seattle

Z’s Pick:     Seattle

 

 

Dallas (-3)           at      NY Giants

dallas-cowboys-logo2The Cowboys are running away with the NFC East, but the Giants are in excellent position to grab a wildcard spot. This is the Sunday night Giants Logogame on NBC, and as such fans would obviously love to see a great battle. Personally I’ve never been all that impressed by QB Eli Manning…I think he’s more lucky than good. With defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul out with a groin injury it’ll be that much tougher for the G-Men to slow down Dallas’ dynamic rookie duo of Zeke Elliott & Dak Prescott. Zach has nothing to lose and thinks this could be a trap game for the Cowboys.

My Pick:     Dallas

Z’s Pick:     NY Giants

 

 

Baltimore           at      New England (-7.5)

I’d love to see both of these teams lose. It’d certainly help my Steelers if the hated Ravens were to go down. The Patriots’ offense will be hindered a bit for the remainder New_England_Patriots_Helmetof the season with tight end Rob Gronkowski on IR, but how much?? This is the Monday night game, so I’ll be watching pro wrestling. I suppose I’ll go the smart route and pick New England. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     New England

Z’s Pick:     New England

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 9

pfootIt wasn’t my intention to do bonus picks again so soon, but both the college & NFL schedules are chockful of intriguing matchups and I just can’t resist. Last week was a rough one for yours truly, as I could only muster a record of 1-4, while Zach fared a little better at 2-3. Obviously neither of us have a bright future in the prognostication arts, but we’ll have fun trying.

My Season:        22-24

Z’s Season:        16-31

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

California                     at                USC (-15.5)

The Bears come into this game 4-3, but it must be noted that two of those losses were by 5 points or less, and they’ve split the last two games in overtime. Meanwhile,cal the Trojans have an identical 4-3 record but are riding a three game winning streak. This is a Thursday night contest, and while it is a home game for Southern Cal the 2 TD+ spread seems a bit much. I think it’ll be closer and Zach agrees.

My Pick:     California

Z’s Pick:     California

 

 

Michigan (-24)             at                Michigan St.

A year ago the Spartans escaped with a thrilling last second victory after a touchdown on a fumbled punt. But that team was undefeated and would go on to play in the national Michigan_State_Spartansplayoff semifinal. In 2016 the tables have been turned. The Wolverines are undefeated and ranked #2 in the country while State has lost five straight to stand at 2-5. I am not quite sure what has happened in East Lansing outside of the normal ebb & flow of players graduating & new ones stepping up take those spots, but obviously things have taken a bad turn. Conversely, Jim Harbaugh has coached his alma mater back to relevancy much quicker than I anticipated, although few are really shocked that they have been successful. I’d be surprised if the favorites lost, but I’d be almost as surprised if Sparty didn’t show some pride in defending their home field. Zach is a big Michigan fan but he agrees.

My Pick:     Michigan St.

Z’s Pick:     Michigan St.

 

 

Baylor (-3)          at                Texas

I thought that it’d be Baylor having a rough year given their…eventful…offseason, while Texas would show some life with Charlie Strong’s job on the line. However the bayloropposite has happened thus far. The Bears are 6-0 and have barely been tested. The Longhorns are 3-4 and probably already have a list of candidates to replace Strong. I’d LOVE to pick the upset…but I just can’t pull the trigger, even with the game being played in Austin. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Baylor

Z’s Pick:     Baylor

 

 

Washington (-10)       at                Utah

utah2The Huskies are a very quiet 7-0, ranked 4th in the polls, & look like a solid playoff team unless they stumble down the stretch. Could that washington2misstep come against the 7-1 Utes in Salt Lake City?? I think it is possible. At the very least I am uncomfortable with a double digit point spread.  Zach has no issues with the spread. He thinks it’ll be close for three quarters but Washington will take over in the end.

My Pick:     Utah

Z’s Pick:     Washington

 

 

Nebraska           at                Wisconsin (-8.5)

nebraskaThis is the prime time game on ESPN Saturday night. The Huskers have rather quietly amassed a perfect 7-0 record, while the Badgers have lost WisconsinBadgerstwice…to Michigan & Ohio St….nothing to be ashamed about. Wisconsin gets the home field bump, which is understandable. But are the points too much?? I think they might be. Zach thinks Nebraska is overrated and he likes Wisconsin’s defense.

My Pick:     Nebraska

Z’s Pick:     Wisconsin

 

 

Clemson (-4.5)            at                Florida St.

Florida_State_SeminolesBefore the season began this game looked like it could decide a playoff spot. Unfortunately the Seminoles have dropped a couple of games and clemsonare unlikely to re-enter the playoff conversation. However the Tigers, despite a few close shaves, remain undefeated and very much in the playoff hunt. As much as I’d love to stick with my pre-season choice and pick Clemson The Vibes are reminding me that this game is in Tallahassee, that Florida St. is still a very good team, & that Clemson has been on the cusp of losing a couple of times and their luck can’t run on forever. Zach believes the Seminoles will put up a good fight but Clemson will be too much in the 4th quarter.

My Pick:     Florida St.

Z’s Pick:     Clemson

 

 

Kansas City (-2.5)      at                Indianapolis

The Chiefs were one of my pre-season Super Bowl picks, but thus far they are an underwhelming 4-2 and trailing both the Raiders & Broncos in the AFC West. The kc-chiefs-logoColts aren’t much better. At 3-4 they still have a chance to win their division as I predicted only because the Texans aren’t very good. It is interesting that Indy is a home underdog. If the folks in Vegas aren’t going to respect them why should I?? Zach likes the Chiefs to outcoach the opponent and snag a victory.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

 

 

Oakland             at                Tampa Bay (-1.5)

The Raiders have been fairly impressive in what seems to be the culmination of a decade long rebuild, leading their division at 5-2. The Bucs have been…alright. They raidersare 3-3 and occasionally show flashes of…something. Whatever it is they aren’t there yet and Oakland is ahead of their progress by a country mile. Zach notes that Tampa has suffered some key injuries and thinks the Raiders will be a playoff team.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Oakland

 

 

Arizona               at                Carolina (-2.5)

Many pundits thought the Cards were a Super Bowl favorite this season, but so far they’ve looked rather mediocre. The Panthers have been even worse, following in the footsteps of other Super Bowl losers of the past by stinking up the joint the following year. I have no idea what the problem is, but it is irrefutable that a problem exists.nflarizonacardinals Carolina is probably already out of playoff contention, but Arizona can still recover and win their division. This looks like a tossup on paper, but I’m gonna go with the visiting underdogs. Zach agrees. He likes the Cardinals’ defense to lead them to victory.

My Pick:     Arizona

Z’s Pick:     Arizona

2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

cfYou live by the sword you die by the sword. When I began doing this last year I made the decision to oddsutilize point spreads, not for gambling purposes but because it adds a layer of strategery that increases the challenge. Simply choosing a winner means one has a 50/50 shot at being right. I am not good enough at math to figure out how the point spread decreases those odds…I just know it does. At any rate, the points really bit us in the behind last week. Both Alabama and the Kansas City Chiefs won as Zach & I predicted…but ‘Bama won by 7 in a game with an 8 point spread and the Chiefs beat the Dallas Cowboys by only 1 point so they didn’t cover the 2.5 point spread. Ouch…two tough losses. To make matters worse the Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions let us down. The only bright spot in a 1-4 week for both of us was the Denver Broncos. So for the season it looks like this:

Your Humble Potentate of Profundity  =  7-8

Zach  =  6-9

We’re flipping the script this week, leaning on more college games and picking only one NFL contest. None of the college games are the kind of big time clashes between highly ranked teams that make guys like ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit or CBS’s Tim Brando wet themselves, but I find them each compelling for one reason or another.

 

 

Boise St.                     at        Fresno St. (-3)

In my pre-season Top 25 I ranked Fresno #18 and did not rank Boise at all. So far I’m looking good, but that could all change fresnopending the outcome of this game. The Bulldogs are 2-0 and the only thing that’s even challenged them thus far is Mother Nature (last week’s game at Colorado was postponed due to flooding). Conversely, the Broncos come into this week having split their first two games. I have to stick with my pre-season vibes and go with Fresno to take this one. Zach likes that Fresn’s offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders and believes they’ll cover the points despite a strong effort from Boise.

My Pick          Fresno St.                 

Z’s Pick           Fresno St.

 

Western Michigan                at        Iowa (-17)

Zach & I both participate in a weekly online pick ‘em sponsored here locally in northcentral WV (high school, college, & pro iowagames are all included), and each week the Iowa game has been on there. I couldn’t fathom why we kept picking the Iowa game until I remembered that a young man from one of the local high schools is now a kicker for the Hawkeyes. What intrigues me about this game is the huge spread. Western Michigan has gotten off to a bad 0-3 start, although to be fair they have played two Top 25 Big Ten teams (Michigan St. & Northwestern). Meanwhile, Iowa lost a close opener to Northern Illinois but now stands at 2-1. I know absolutely nothing about either of these teams so I am just going to wuss out and go with the oddsmakers. Zach graduated from the aforementioned high school that Iowa’s kicker came from so despite being a bit concerned with the points he’s making the homer pick.

My Pick          Iowa

Z’s Pick           Iowa

 

Arizona St.                 at        Stanford (-7.5)

photo.stanfordtreeChristmas came early last week for Arizona St. when extraordinary incompetence by the officials allowed the asuSun Devils to steal a win, which took their record to 2-0. Stanford is 2-0 and ranked in the Top 5, but they really haven’t played anybody. At first glance the points look intriguing, but I don’t think Stanford will have any problem covering en route to a fairly stress-free victory. Zach has been anticipating this game and believes that Arizona St. is a legitimately good team despite last week’s tainted victory. He’s predicting the upset.

My Pick          Stanford

Z’s Pick           Arizona St.

 

Kansas St.      at        Texas (-5)

In my pre-season Top 25 I ranked the Longhorns #4 and predicted that they “are finally primed to re-ascend to the top of The TEXAS LONGHORNS.1271817676Big 12 and possibly contend for a national championship.” It turns out that that assessment may have been…slightly optimistic. Texas has begun the season 1-2 and a lot of folks aren’t too happy about it. Kansas St. is 2-1, but their schedule thus far has been less than compelling and they lost to a 1-AA team to open the season. The vibes are telling me that the heat has been turned up in Austin to a sufficient enough level that the Longhorns won’t let this one slip thru their fingers. Zach isn’t excited at all about this game and would actually prefer to watch paint dry. However, even though he’s convinced that this will be a boring game he agrees that Texas will bounce back and get the win.

My Pick          Texas

Z’s Pick           Texas

 

Kansas City                at        Philadelphia (-3.5)

The lone NFL game on the docket is significant because it marks Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid’s return to The City of Brotherly Lovekc-chiefs-logo to face the team that he coached for 14 years…until they fired him on New Year’s Eve. Kansas City has looked impressive thus far in going 2-0, and my prediction of a 9-7 record with a playoff appearance is looking prescient. Everyone is all aflutter about the magical things new coach Chip Kelly has been doing with the Eagles’ offense, but it has become apparent that defense is an issue. Until Philly gets those problems fixed and stops giving up 30 points per game they’ll be easy pickins for most NFL teams. Zach is all in on the Chiefs and thinks highly of quarterback Alex Smith.

My Pick          Kansas City               

Z’s Pick           Kansas City

2013 NFL Preview & Prognostications

goodell-e1348946003302I strongly dislike Roger Goodell. He is by far the worst commissioner the NFL has had and maybe one of the worst suits in the history of organized sports at any level. I have been watching a lot of pre-season games A) because that’s just how I roll and B) because the NFL Network may be the greatest invention since the light bulb. It saddens me to see what Commissioner Fidel Goodell has done to the game of football. There’s a penalty on every other play. Defenders can’t hit a guy high, and now there’s a movement to ban hitting low due to knee injuries. What the heck is a defensive player supposed to do?? Most of the penalties I have seen called lately were, as recently as 2 or 3 years ago, just good solid football. And then there is the whole paralysis by analysis of what is and what isn’t a catch. When I was a kid a catch was a catch…but not anymore. Within 5-10 years pro football will be unwatchable and the destruction will be the fault of the evil Roger Goodell. The best thing for the NFL would be for Goodell to go away…one way or another…and for a new commissioner to simply say “Oh yeah…all that namby pamby “safety” crap…forget it. Let’s play fnflootball!!”. Unfortunately I don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon. In the meantime I suppose we’ll forge ahead with business as usual while the game still somewhat resembles the football we knew & loved. Each team’s 2012 record is in parentheses immediately followed by my prediction for this season’s outcome. As always I’ll remind you that your humble Potentate of Profundity does not condone gambling so if you wager your lunch money and lose don’t blame me. Enjoy!!

 

 

AFC

East

New England Patriots         

(12-4)  10-6

Miami Dolphins                    

(7-9)    8-8

Buffalo Bills                           

(6-10)  8-8

New York Jets                        

(6-10)  2-14

The Jets will be terrible and we all know it. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Mark Sanchez or rookie Geno Smith starting at quarterback. Head coach Rex Ryan might be gone bypatriots the time the bye week rolls around midway thru the season. Buffalo is starting someone named Jeff Tuel at QB in Week 1 which pretty much tells one all they need to know about the Bills. A lot of folks seem to be cautiously jumping on the Dolphins bandwagon but quite frankly I just don’t get it. They’ll be mediocre at best. So there is no doubt that the Patriots will walk away with their 11th division title in the past 13 years…the question is just how quickly they can clinch. I do think New England has plateaued and might take a tiny step back, but in this horrible division it will hardly be noticeable.

 

West

Denver Broncos                    

(13-3)  11-5

Kansas City Chiefs                 

(2-14)  9-7

Oakland Raiders                   

(4-12)  6-10

San Diego Chargers              

(7-9)    5-11

You want proof positive that life is unfair?? Terrelle Pryor is now a starting quarterback in the NFL while his former Ohio State head coach Jim Tressel is broncos-4759basically unemployable as a head coach until 2017. Not that Pryor’s presence behind center will help the Oakland Raiders all that much. This is Denver’s division to lose, and though I am a bit concerned about their defense after losing pass rusher Elvis Dumervil to an idiotic clerical error there are no such worries about Peyton Manning and the offense, especially after the addition of receiver Wes Welker. This will be Manning’s best opportunity to add another Super Bowl ring to his collection and I think he’ll make hay while the sun is shining. The Chiefs might be one of the most improved teams in the NFL after hiring new head coach Andy Reid and trading for QB Alex Smith.

 

South

Indianapolis Colts                 

(11-5)  11-5

Houston Texans                    

(12-4)  9-7

Tennessee Titans                  

(6-10)  8-8

Jacksonville Jaguars              

(2-14)  5-11

Colts’ QB Andrew Luck acquitted himself pretty well in his rookie season and I don’t think we’ll see any kind of sophomore slump in 2013. Indianapolis is a Indianapolis_Colts_Helmetyoung team that should continue to grow & achieve, and I really like the addition of running back Ahmad Bradshaw so long as he can stay healthy. What most pundits would likely disagree with is my assertion that the Texans will take a step backward. I am not at all convinced that running back Arian Foster can remain upright thru the entire season and top wideout Andre Johnson is now 32 years old. If first round draft pick DeAndre Hopkins, a wide receiver out of Clemson, can blossom early that might help. The other side of the ball features NFL Defensive Player of the Year JJ Watt so there are no worries there. This might be a make or break year for Titans’ quarterback Jake Locker and I am not convinced he’ll deliver. It’d be helpful if running back Chris Johnson could somehow return to his 2009 incarnation when he ran for 2000 yards and scored 14 touchdowns. The Jags are probably going to be bad again, though maybe not quite as bad as last year. When your quarterback competition involves Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne that’s not a good sign.

 

North

Cincinnati Bengals               

(10-6)  11-5

Baltimore Ravens                 

(10-6)  10-6

Pittsburgh Steelers               

(8-8)    9-7

Cleveland Browns                 

(5-11)  7-9

This could be the most competitive division in the NFL in 2013. Opinions vary wildly about the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens. Some sayCincinnati_Bengals_Helmet this year’s Ravens are even better than last year. I can see that logic. The loss of safety Ed Reed and linebacker Ray Lewis won’t affect the team all that much on the field as both of those guys were old & slow. Baltimore added sack master Elvis Dumervil so theoretically the defense got younger & more athletic. But I just don’t think a team can go thru so many changes and not be affected. The loss of receiver Anquan Boldin…who was traded to San Francisco…is huge. Defending champs do generally make the playoffs but only 7 have ever repeated. The Bengals have quietly evolved from the Bungles to a nominal favorite to win the division. It is amazing what can be accomplished outside of a prison cell. The Browns are showing signs of life but aren’t quite ready to make a stir just yet. I actually read one fellow prognosticator who thinks the Steelers will win the division. Nothing would make me happier. However, I am very concerned about the offensive line (again), and as excited as I was when Pittsburgh drafted running back Le’veon Bell in the 2nd round that enthusiasm has been tempered by a pre-season foot injury that might keep the rookie off the field for the first couple of games.

 

Playoffs:                               

New England, Indianapolis, Denver, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Kansas City

AFC Championship:           Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

 

 

NFC

East

Washington Redskins          

(10-6)  10-6

Dallas Cowboys                     

(8-8)    9-7

New York Giants                   

(9-7)    8-8

Philadelphia Eagles              

(4-12)  7-9

I said that the AFC North might be the NFL’s most competitive division. Well here is a worthy rival. The Redskins season likely rests entirely on quarterback Washington_Redskins_logoRGIII’s recovery from a knee injury suffered in a playoff game last season. Will he start in Week 1?? Will the powers-that-be proceed with caution and hold him out for the first few weeks of the season?? When he does see action will he be the same multi-talented threat he used to be?? The Cowboys…as usual…have lofty expectations that they won’t achieve. If I were head coach Jason Garrett I wouldn’t lose my real estate agent’s number just yet. I like the Eagles’ selection of Chip Kelly as their new head coach and I think he’ll do well in due time…but there’ll be some growing pains. I can never seem to get a good read on the NY Giants. When I think they’ll be good they fall apart and when I predict they’ll suck they win the Super Bowl. So it is entirely possible they’ll be a game or two better than my prediction. Or a lot worse. I don’t know.

 

West

Seattle Seahawks                 

(11-5)  12-4

San Francisco 49ers             

(11-4-1) 10-6              

St. Louis Rams                       

(7-8-1)9-7

Arizona Cardinals                 

(5-11)  3-13

I’ll make one bold prediction. There will NOT be another tie this season!! The 49ers have history going against them as 28 out of 42 Super Bowl losers since seattle-seahawks11970 haven’t won a playoff game the next season. Twelve of those teams missed the postseason and 16 lost their first playoff game. I do think ‘Frisco takes a tiny step backward this season simply because everyone will be gunning for them. It’ll be an interesting battle between San Francisco & Seattle. The two teams play each other on 9/15 (in Seattle) and 12/8 (in San Francisco) and my vibe is that Seahawks’ quarterback Russell Wilson will lead his team to a division title. The Rams lost RB Steven Jackson in the offseason but are stacked at the position with younger fresher legs. Quarterback Sam Bradford is at a crossroads in his career but the addition of speedy receiver Tavon Austin will help a lot. The Cardinals are a mess even though Carson Palmer has stabilized the quarterback position just a bit. Arizona will have to rely on their defense to get the job done and I think they need another year or two to gel.

 

South

New Orleans Saints              

(7-9)    10-6

Atlanta Falcons                     

(13-3)  10-6

Carolina Panthers                 

(7-9)    8-8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers        

(7-9)    7-9

There’s not much to say about Carolina & Tampa. I don’t see either team making a positive jump in 2013. I think they’ll just be treading water. The real 10_new_orleans_saintsaction will be at the top of the division where I think the Saints rebound from the collateral damage of BountyGate and get back on the winning track with head coach Sean Payton returning to the sideline. I expect quarterback Drew Brees to once again throw for 4000+ yards & 30+ touchdowns and the defense is now being led by new coordinator Rob Ryan which is a very good thing. Many of those TDs thrown by Brees will be caught by tight end Jimmy Graham who might just be the best in the business. One of my more…risky…forecasts is a slight decline for the Atlanta Falcons who came oh so close to going to The Super Bowl last season. The Falcons added running back Steven Jackson and defensive end Usi Umenyiora in the offseason which would seem to indicate that they believe this year is their big chance to finally get over the hump. Maybe they will. But I just don’t think it’s going to be quite that simple. I’ve been wrong before though.

 

North

Green Bay Packers                

(11-5)  10-6

Chicago Bears                         

(10-6)  9-7

Minnesota Vikings                 

(10-6)  8-8

Detroit Lions                          

(4-12)  7-9

Last year I sang the praises of the Green Bay Packers and predicted that they’d beat New England in the highest scoring Super Bowl of all time. They Green_Bay_Packers_Helmetpromptly went out and lost 3 of their first 5 games and were beaten by the 49ers in the second round of the playoffs. So my expectations are somewhat cowed this time around though I still predict a division crown…they’ll just have to work for it. The Bears are another team like the NY Giants…difficult to read. I’m not a fan of quarterback Jay Cutler although if anyone can bring out his best it is probably new head coach Marc Trestman. The Vikings of course have running back Adrian Peterson, but as good as he is I don’t think he’ll get anywhere near 2000 yards again. For Minnesota to make another run at the playoffs quarterback Christian Ponder will have to show some significant growth and the defense…led by pass rusher Jared Allen…will have to be stellar. Minnesota ranked 2nd in rushing offense last season but 31st in passing offense. They’ll need to find some balance in 2013. The Lions…much like the Cleveland Browns…have shown some occasional signs of life but just aren’t there quite yet.

 

Playoffs:       

Washington, New Orleans, Seattle, Green Bay, San Francisco, Atlanta

NFC Championship:           New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers

 

SB

San Francisco 49ers                       30

Denver Broncos                              34

Winning & Musing…..Volume 6.12

Today we put a bow on the NFL Draft, finally pay some attention to the NBA (now that the playoffs have begun), and address whatever else The Voices scream about.

 

As per usual I watched the vast majority of all 7 rounds of the annual NFL Selection Meeting, more commonly known as the draft. A few observations:

  • I really like what my Steelers accomplished. Guard David Decastro isn’t a sexy pick, but he is exactly what the team needed. It was quite the pleasant surprise when Decastro was still available, as most “experts” had him being off the board within the top 20 picks. There are some questions about OT Mike Adams due to poor choices involving marijuana usage and lying about said usage, but if he grows up and plays to his full potential it will certainly help an offensive line that has been a weakness for a few years now. Many many months ago several of the earliest mock drafts had the Steelers taking nose tackle Alameda Ta’amu in the first round. Instead they end up getting him in the fourth round which could end up being a huge steal, as Casey Hampton will likely be finished after 2012. RB Chris Rainey provides a versatile, speedy weapon and might become a solid kickoff/punt returner.

 

  • Kudos to the suits in Minnesota for getting the idiots in Cleveland to move up one spot in the first round to take RB Trent Richardson, whom they could have had anyway by standing pat. It’s not like the Vikings were going to take a running back since they already have Adrian Peterson. Yes I know AP is recovering from torn ACL/MCLs, but he’ll be back. Maybe the Browns became convinced that other teams were interested in moving up to get Richardson?? At any rate the Vikings got the guy they wanted all along, left tackle Matt Khalil, plus three extra draft choices out of the deal and are welcome to accompany me to haggle with used car salesmen any day.

 

  • There are only two possible explanations for the Redskins taking QB Kirk Cousins in the 4th round after taking Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Robert Griffin III with the second overall pick. First, they aren’t completely sold on RGIII. That seems unlikely. Who would take a guy that high if you don’t believe he can be a difference maker?? The second, more likely train of thought is that he can spend a few years as a solid backup and then be flipped in a trade for multiple picks, like what the Green Bay Packers just did with Matt Flynn, the New England Patriots did when trading QB Matt Cassel to the Kansas City Chiefs a couple of years ago, or the Atlanta Falcons did when they sent QB Matt Schaub to the Houston Texans in 2007. I’m not completely against that strategy, but coming off a 5-11 season I would think there would be better uses for a middle round draft pick.

 

  • Did the Seattle Seahawks “reach” when selecting former WV Mountaineer pass rusher Bruce Irvin with the 15th pick in the first round?? Maybe. But if Irvin turns into the next Mario Williams, DeMarcus Ware, or Terrell Suggs then it might eventually look like a pretty shrewd choice.

 

  • I don’t know whether new Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill will be more like the next Dan Marino or the next Dan Orlovsky, but I am absolutely sure that his wife is s-m-o-k-i-n’ hot and television cameras WILL find her during Miami games.

 

  • The biggest bust of the first round may turn out to be DT Dontari Poe, taken 11th overall by the Kansas City Chiefs. The consensus seems to be that all he has going for him is his massive size, and there are a lot of questions as to why he wasn’t more dominant in college against Conference USA competition. I’m glad the Steelers stayed away from that potential disaster.

 

  • Getting WR Michael Floyd to play opposite the amazing Larry Fitzgerald is a nice pick for the Arizona Cardinals. If only they had a quarterback that was worth a damn.

 

  • Speaking of wide receivers, the negatives on NY Jets 2nd round choice Stephen Hill are his hands and his route running. Call me crazy, but aren’t those kind of important skills for a receiver?? Sure the guy is 6ft5 with sub 4.4 speed, but those things won’t matter if he can’t catch the ball.

 

  • Obviously the San Francisco 49ers didn’t need to add too much to the mix seeing as how they fell just short of the Super Bowl when they lost to the NY Giants in overtime of the NFC Championship game. However, picking wide receiver AJ Jenkins with their first rounder choice is a real head scratcher. AJ Who?? In a draft deep at the receiver position, how in the heck does a team manage to spend its top choice on the one guy no one has ever heard of?? And why did they need a receiver anyway after signing Randy Moss & Mario Manningham in the offseason??

 

  • I think QB Russell Wilson goes to Seattle and immediately becomes the backup behind free agent signee Matt Flynn, and may eventually turn out to be better than Flynn. Sure he’s about as tall as a hobbit, but guys like Doug Flutie & Drew Brees have proven you don’t have to be 6ft.4 to be a winning quarterback, just like Jamarcus Russell proved that you can be 6ft.6 and not belong within a 5 mile radius of a football field.

 

  • Chicago Bears’ 2nd round choice WR Alshon Jeffery has the potential to become one of the best receivers from this draft…if he can wean himself off the Sally Struthers diet he’s apparently been utilizing.

 

  • I really like the Broncos choice of QB Brock Osweiler to be the heir apparent to Peyton Manning. The guy is 6ft.7 and reminds me just a little bit of Ben Roethlisberger. If Manning can stay healthy and sticks around 3 or 4 years there is no better teacher to bring along Osweiler slowly and groom him to take over down the road.

 

  • New Cleveland Browns quarterback Brandon Weeden won’t get the benefit of being seasoned slowly & learning from a legend. Since he’s already 28 years old (having spent a few years playing minor league baseball before becoming the signal caller at Oklahoma St.) and the Browns have apparently already lost faith in Colt McCoy after just 2 seasons.

 

 

A melancholy farewell to the Chicago Bulls’ chances of winning an NBA title after star player Derrick Rose was lost to an ACL tear in the very first post-season game. It looks like, much to my chagrin, the Miami Heat have a fairly easy path to the Eastern Conference crown, and can only be stopped in the finals, possibly by the Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Lakers, or the San Antonio Spurs. But even that prospect doesn’t look all that promising.

 

As I have stated many times, I don’t pay hardly any attention to the NBA until the playoffs begin, so I was kind of amazed when I saw that Michael Jordan’s Carolina Bobcats went 7-59…the worst season in NBA history. Really?? A team owned by Michael Jordan…the best basketball player that ever lived…is that bad?? Of course a quick glance at their roster reveals that the only players worth anything are small forward Gerald Henderson and guard Kemba Walker. Everyone else just needs to be released.

 

After the much ballyhooed signing of free agent slugger Albert Pujols, who would have ever guessed that the LA/Anaheim/California Angels would be sitting in last place, 9 games behind the Texas Rangers?? Now granted, we’re only a couple of dozen games into the season, but Pujols is only hitting .216 with NO home runs. The folks in St. Louis…home of the defending World Champions and first place Cardinals (even without Pujols)…have got to be smiling from ear to ear.

 

Since the Steelers didn’t really address their woeful defensive backfield in the draft, I must have faith in the black & gold brass and hope that middle-of-the road guys picked up with mid to late round choices over the past few years are finally ready to blossom. Specifically I am talking about cornerbacks Cortez Allen, Keenan Lewis, and Curtis Brown. They simply must step up and not let opposing quarterbacks shred them for big plays.

The Sammy Awards 2011 – Episode II: Electric Boogaloo

Welcome back to Part 2 of the 2011 Sammy Awards. I hope you enjoyed the first installment and will tune in for the conclusion.

 

 

At this time it is our pleasure to bring to the stage, to sing a duet of Frank Sinatra’s popular hit That’s Life, Grammy award winning artist Michael Buble and the winner of America’s Got Talent, Landau Eugene Murphy Jr.

 

 

 

To present our next award, The Manofesto is deeply honored to introduce three members of America’s greatest sports dynasty, the Pittsburgh Steelers. Please welcome NFL Hall of Famers Terry Bradshaw, Mean Joe Greene, and Lynn Swann. And the nominees are:

 

Biggest Sports Story

 

Dominance of the Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers went almost exactly a calendar year without losing a game. After squeaking into the playoffs last season as a wildcard team who had a plethora of players out with injuries, they ran roughshod through the field and won The Super Bowl. Then The Pack looked unbeatable and in fact were through 13 weeks of the 2011 season, easily vanquishing their opponents while quarterback Aaron Rodgers made Cheeseheads forget all about that Favre fellow. They had an inexplicable hiccup against the lowly Kansas City Chiefs just a few weeks ago, but still look like the odds on favorite to repeat as champs.

 

NFL & NBA Lockouts

To most fans these occasional spitting contests between owners of professional sports teams and their players is an annoying battle of billionaires vs. millionaires. However, regardless of the financial legalities involved, at the end of the day Joe Sixpack just wants to be able to sit around in his underwear, drink a few beverages, and cheer on his favorite team. The NFL Lockout had been foreseen for upwards of 2 or 3 years, and it ended up lasting nearly 5 months before being resolved in July, with the only casualty being the annual preseason Hall of Fame Game. The rest of the preseason and regular season were unaffected. I have no idea who is considered to have won or lost the battle…I was just thrilled when pro football was back on my television. Unlike their football brethren, the NBA did lose part of their season, with the first 6 weeks being cancelled and the regular season being shortened from 82 to 66 games. Again I don’t really know who is believed to have won or lost, and I don’t care. I wasn’t anywhere near as invested in basketball’s drama as I was the football story, but I guess it’s nice that they resolved the issue and are playing. Now I can go back to ignoring the NBA as usual until the playoffs begin.

 

Japan Wins Womens’ World Cup

I couldn’t possibly care less about soccer, but it is the world’s most popular sport and The World Cup is its crowning achievement. Like most Americans I was rooting for the U.S. team, but since the tournament took place mere weeks after Japan was devastated by a horrific earthquake & tsunami their gals were the sentimental favorites amongst most of the Earth’s soccer loving population.

 

Penn St. Sexual Abuse Scandal

Joe Paterno served 46 years as the head coach of the Penn State Nittany Lions and is the all-time winningest coach in major college football with 409 victories. The chorus calling for his ouster had started to become louder in the past decade, mostly due to his advanced age and the fact that he hadn’t sniffed the national title picture since The Clinton Administration. However, few really thought he’d ever be fired, and absolutely no one on the planet could have predicted the circumstances of his demise. Back in November former Penn St. defensive coordinator Jerry Sandusky was arrested for allegedly molesting numerous young boys, some of them on the school’s campus. Then news broke that another assistant coach had witnessed an incident in 2002 and reported it to Paterno, who had then reported it to the athletic director. Apparently no one called law enforcement. After the dust settled Paterno as well as the AD and the school’s President were fired. It was a sad & shocking end to a legendary career.

 

Tim Tebow

I’m not sure Tebow is as much a football player as he is a folk hero. Few thought his unique skill set would translate to a successful NFL career, and that presumption has been right…and wrong. Mostly due to financial considerations, the demands of a vocal fan base & the complicit media, and the fact that the Denver Broncos just aren’t a very good team, Tebow ascended to the top of the quarterback depth chart in 2011. Despite the fact that he couldn’t hit water if he was throwing from a dinghy in the middle of the Pacific Ocean and looked like the worst QB in the history of football for 55 minutes of almost every game, he somehow lead the Broncos to a stretch of 7 wins in 8 games, with several of those victories due to late game heroics. Off the field Tebow is an unabashed born again Christian who does not run from his faith, a fact which endears him to some and offends others greatly. This mix of popularity, controversial religious zeal, and questionable ability have combined to make Tim Tebow a favorite topic of discussion on every conceivable sports program, especially ESPN’s First Take, where master debater & cunning linguist Skip Bayless practically drops to his knees and fellatiates him on a daily basis.

 

Ohio St. Scandal/Jim Tressel Firing

With his stoic manner and austere sweater vest Jim Tressel seems more like a professor than a football coach. But numbers don’t lie, and in a career spanning nearly 25 years Tressel won 75% of his games, 6 Big Ten Titles, and 5 national championships. Unfortunately in 2011 he got caught up in the arrogant culture of cheating that has sadly come to define big time collegiate athletics at institutions like Ohio State. A group of Buckeye players were found to have traded memorabilia in exchange for free tattoos at a Columbus shop. The NCAA tends to frown on such things, and they really get upset when it is discovered that the head coach had known about the whole thing and covered it up. Tressel decided to resign and the players involved were suspended for much of the 2011 season. The Buckeyes are now on probation, losing a handful of scholarships and will not be allowed to play in the postseason next year. All things considered they got off pretty easy, except for Tressel, whose career is essentially over.

 

 

And the Sammy goes to…..

 

 

The Penn St. Scandal. As a fan I hate when issues like crime, sexual abuse, and indictments invade the sports page, but this was a huge story. A beloved, fabled, larger-than-life coach was fired and a hugely successful & seemingly clean program has been left in shambles. And lest we forget, there are numerous young men that must, for the rest of their lives, deal with having been molested by a sick freak who will hopefully be spending the remainder of his pathetic life behind bars being someone else’s bitch.

 

 

 

To present our next award, we are happy to reunite members of the cast of the 90’s Saturday morning staple Hang Time. Please welcome Daniella Deutscher, Megan Parlen, Anthony Anderson, Dick Butkus, Reggie Theus, and Amber Barretto. And the nominees are:

 

 

 

Best TV Show

 

How I Met Your Mother

It’s a second consecutive nomination for the continuing Friends-esque adventures of 5 New Yorkers, with the question of how main character Ted (a part narrated…in the future…by Bob Saget) eventually meets his children’s mother yet to be answered. Oh we’ve come close a couple of times, but that pursuit has been kind of backburnered as viewers are mostly caught up in the on again/off again romance of pals Barney (played by the sublime Neil Patrick Harris) and Robin.

 

Big Bang Theory

Another two time nominee, this is the adventures of two uber nerds, their eccentric posse of co-workers & gal pals, and the hot, ditzy neighbor. It’s kind of a counterpoint to the classic 80’s sitcom Three’s Company. Whereas Three’s Company catered to the lowest common denominator, Big Bang Theory embraces the intellectual capacity of its characters while not shying away from their social ineptitude. The writing continues to be witty & sharp, and the expanded cast doesn’t feel overcrowded or excessive.

 

Late Night with Jimmy Fallon

In my mind Jimmy Fallon has already surpassed Leno, Letterman, & Conan in the late night hierarchy. His monologue isn’t as solid, but then again he isn’t a stand-up comedian. The strong suit of the show is in the creative bits & audience participation games that usually come after the first commercial break…stuff like Slow Jam the News, Cupid’s Arrow (a parody of a 1980’s video dating service), Cell Phone Shootout, Models & Buckets, Beer Pong (played with a celebrity guest), Charades (played with a celebrity guest & an audience member), and my personal favorite Thank You Notes (a regular Friday night feature). The host himself is a strength of the show as well. One gets the feeling that Leno is kind of an ass & that Conan’s antics might become irritating in short order, and we all know that Letterman is mental. In contrast, Jimmy Fallon seems to genuinely be relishing what he is doing and appears to be the sort of sincerely pleasant fellow one wouldn’t mind hanging out with and enjoying a beverage.

 

Mike & Mike in the Morning

The 2010 winner of this award is still going strong. The great thing about a show like this is that it is constantly changing yet never really changes. In other words, because it is a sports talk show and there are almost always new stories & issues to pontificate about and examine on a daily basis, the show is always fresh. Conversely, the affable charm and playfully antagonistic relationship of hosts Greeny & Golic creates an easygoing, reliable comfort zone that allows the viewer to just sit back & enjoy their antics. Even when one or both of the hosts are off there is a posse of guests and fill-in hosts like former NFL players Marcellus Wiley, Mark “Stink” Schlereth, & Cris Carter, baseball insiders Buster Olney & Tim Kurkjian, and football insiders Mel Kiper Jr., Adam Schefter, & Chris Mortensen that keep the show going even if they aren’t quite as entertaining as The Mikes.

 

Parenthood

Loosely based on the 1989 Ron Howard film that starred an ensemble cast headed by Steve Martin, Mary Steenburgen, Jason Robards, Keanu Reeves, and a young Joaquin Phoenix, this is the second time a television adaptation has been attempted. Needless to say this version is much better than the first effort (which starred Ed Begley Jr., David Arquette, and a young Leonardo DiCaprio). It’s one of those dramedies that I tend to love so much on both the big & small screens, I think because it is an accurate depiction of life…sometimes we laugh, sometimes we cry, sometimes we laugh until we cry, and sometimes we have to laugh to keep from crying. There are no huge stars, but there are a few recognizable faces…Lauren Graham (Gilmore Girls), Peter Krause (Six Feet Under, Sports Night), and Craig T. Nelson (Coach). As with most shows with a large cast of characters, there are usually a few stories going on, and it’s a hit or miss effort. Fortunately Parenthood seems to hit all the right notes most of the time.

 

Pardon the Interruption

Readers of The Manofesto know how much I love my ESPN talk shows, and this is the evening book end to Mike & Mike. Starring former sports writers Michael Wilbon and Tony Kornheiser, who worked together at The Washington Post, it’s your standard “let’s debate the foremost sports topics du jour” format. However, it must be said that Tony & Michael have been doing it longer & better than anyone else.

 

 

And the Sammy goes to…..

 

 

Mike & Mike. Congratulations to Greeny & Golic for capturing their second consecutive Sammy Award. This is comfort food television for any sports fan, as well as being very informative & entertaining. I’ll continue to look forward to every weekday between 6 & 10am as long as these guys are on the air.

 

 

 

To present our next award, please give a warm & hearty round of applause to sociopolitical pundit, bestselling author, and radio personality Glenn Beck. And the nominees are:

 

Biggest International News Story

 

 

Arab Spring

I will not even pretend to be an expert in foreign relations, but basically what this boils down to is a wave of civil disobedience that spread across the Middle East and resulted in the governments of 3 nations…Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya…being overthrown. The revolution in Egypt that eventually lead to the resignation of their President of 3 decades, Hosni Mubarak, probably got the most attention. 6 months later long time Libyan leader General Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown and eventually killed. Each uprising gave courage & energy to the next, and one wonders why the populations of those nations put up with evil dictatorships, corruption, and human rights atrocities for so long before finally deciding to stand up and do something about it.

 

Japan Earthquake/Tsunami/Nuclear Meltdown

Back in March Japan was hit with a 9.0 magnitude earthquake, said to be one of the five most powerful quakes on record since 1900. The earthquake generated 130 ft. tsunami waves. The tsunami triggered multiple nuclear meltdowns at several plants. All told nearly 16,000 people lost their lives and another 10,000 were injured or missing. The earthquake actually shifted the Earth on its axis somewhere between 4 & 10 inches.

 

The Greek Economic Crisis

I’m not a financial guru either, but apparently Greece is even worse at managing its finances than America. Other European nations banded together to bail out their Greek pals, enacting some strict spending rules in the process. However, it seems like that little trick hasn’t worked and the situation is still a mess. Predictably the citizens bore the brunt of the financial mismanagement by paying higher taxes and having salaries limited, and they didn’t care for that so there were protests and backlash there too.

 

Bin Laden Killed

On May 2, 2011 the decade long manhunt for the evil bastard who masterminded the September 11 Terrorist Attacks in 2001 ended when U.S. Special Forces raided his compound in Pakistan where he was “caught & compromised to a permanent end”. Giddy crowds of proud Americans gathered to celebrate in places like Times Square, Ground Zero, & outside The White House, which may have been somewhat overzealous and inappropriate but considering the death & destruction Bin Laden had perpetrated & perpetuated over the years was totally understandable.

 

The Royal Wedding

On April 29, 2011 Prince William, the eldest son of England’s Prince Charles and the late, nearly beatified & canonized Princess Diana, married his college sweetheart Kate Middleton. As usual those wacky Brits can’t just have a quiet, subtle little ceremony. They are still under the mistaken impression that they are royalty. Well…okay…they are royalty, but they somehow still seem to think that the distinction actually means something, which of course it doesn’t. Anyway, just like his Mom & Dad’s nuptials three decades ago, the world went nuts over the wedding of William & Kate, with apparently hundreds of millions of people watching the whole show on TV or The Internet. I just hope the marriage goes better than Chuck & Di’s, which we must recall ended in divorce and her dead carcass being splattered in an underpass during a high speed chase by paparazzi.

 

Rupert Murdoch/News of the World Hacking Scandal

Rupert Murdoch owns News Corp, which is the world’s 2nd largest media empire behind only Disney. News Corp owns various familiar businesses like Harper Collins Publishing, The New York Post, The Wall Street Journal, 20th Century Fox, Fox/FX television networks, Fox News Channel, Hulu, and a 15% stake in the Colorado Rockies, as well as a ton of newspapers in Britain & Australia. One of those newspapers was tabloid rag News of the World. In 2011 it was revealed that employees of this tabloid had somehow hacked into the phones & computers of a wide range of celebrities, politicians, and even victims of crimes & terrorism. If memory serves me correctly they even hacked into the phones of Britain’s Royal Family. Ain’t technology grand?? Anyway, the tabloid shut its doors and Murdoch’s credibility has suffered a bit, but otherwise business as usual carries on.

 

 

And the Sammy goes to…..

 

 

I hate to do it, but it’s a tie. Both the Japan Earthquake & the Death of Osama Bin Laden captured the attention & the hearts of a worldwide audience, and both events have far reaching implications & consequences that will extend beyond 2011. My heart goes out to the families of the dead in Japan, as well as the millions of victims who were hurt physically, financially, and on so many other levels. We also can hope that the end of Bin Laden’s existence has brought some sort of closure to the families of those lost on 9/11 and the many other heinous acts for which that monster was responsible.

 

 

 

Rarely does a person get to introduce an award named in their honor, but our next presenter will be doing exactly that. Please give an enthusiastic welcome to NBA living legend Charles Barkley. And the nominees are:

 

 

The Charles Barkley Memorial Role Model Award

 

Tony Larussa

I’m a sucker for “going out on top” stories, and Larussa certainly qualifies since retiring soon after leading the St. Louis Cardinals to a World Series title. Larussa managed in the big leagues for 32 years, but I have a feeling he will not be one of those guys who keeps “unretiring” every other year. He’s actually an attorney, and has mentioned that his post-retirement dream is to manage a book store. As much as I love my sports, I very much appreciate folks who seem to keep it in proper perspective and have the ability & desire to pursue other interests.

 

Hawkeye the Lab

Most web surfers probably saw the picture back in August of Hawkeye, the beloved chocolate Labrador retriever of Petty Officer Jon Tumilson, lying in front of his master’s coffin. Tumilson, a 35 year old Iowan, was a Navy SEAL whose helicopter was shot down by a grenade in Afghanistan on August 6. The photo of Hawkeye faithfully staying by his master’s side until the bitter end likely put a lump in the throats of most anyone with a heart, especially dog owners.

 

Mike Krzyzewski

Coach K. has been at the helm of the vaunted Duke basketball program for over three decades. Before that he was a player and a coach at Army, where he was mentored by the infamous Bobby Knight. He has won 4 national championships, been in 11 Final Fours, and lead the USA to a gold medal at the 2008 Summer Olympics. On November 15, 2011 he became college basketball’s all-time winningest coach, surpassing Knight with his 903rd victory. To my knowledge he has achieved all of this success the right way, without much controversy or any accusations of wrongdoing. And much like Tony Larussa, Krzyzewski appears to be an intelligent, well-rounded man of varied interests & solid character.

 

Navy SEAL Team Six

The United States Naval Special Warfare Development Group is a Special Forces counter-terrorism unit whose details are mostly classified. On May 2, 2011 two dozen members of the group conducted Operation Neptune Spear, in which Osama bin Laden, the evil bastard who masterminded the September 11, 2001 attacks that resulted in the tragic, senseless deaths of nearly 3000 Americans, was finally brought to justice. Personally I am in no way reluctant to celebrate the fact that a dirtbag like bin Laden no longer takes up valuable oxygen on this planet, and I would proudly shake the hand of each one of the brave soldiers involved in his demise.

 

Rep. Paul Ryan

I hesitate to nominate a politician for this award, but Ryan seems to be one of the few out there, atleast on a prominent national level, that is promoting genuine conservative principles. The 7 term Congressman from Wisconsin spent much of this past spring promoting his counterproposal to President Obama’s budget, a plan that would reform Medicare, effectively repeal the horrendous Obamacare fiasco, reduce spending, and lower taxes. Predictably liberals killed the bill in the Senate. However, Ryan still looks to be a rising star that may be shining beacon of hope for conservatives, assuming he doesn’t sell his soul like so many other elected officials.

 

 

And the Sammy goes to…..

 

 

Seal Team Six. God bless our men & women in uniform. Even though the battles of the past decade seem to be winding down, we know that there are still plenty of soldiers scattered in all corners of the world who put their lives on the line every day and spend months & years apart from their loved ones all so that we can continue to enjoy the freedom too many of us tend to take for granted.

 

 

 

 

This seems like the appropriate place to take another break. Please join us tomorrow for the exciting conclusion of the 2011 Sammy Awards!!

Aside

2011 NFL Preview & Prognostications

After the long national nightmare that was the NFL Lockout it is a huge relief to football fans everywhere that a crisis was averted and the only casualty was the traditional Hall of Fame game. It’s going to be fascinating to see which teams can weather the storm of having virtually none of the usual offseason prep time, and if any rookies successfully overcome the extremely short learning curve. Teams with new coaches (San Francisco, Carolina, Cleveland, Denver, Minnesota, Oakland, and Tennessee) are likely to struggle, and no one should expect any significant contributions from their first year players. At any rate, as always, I do not encourage any wagering based on my “insight” and freely admit my expertise in these matters is strictly based on 3 decades as a fan, my vibes, and whatever The Voices tell me. Each team’s 2010 record is in parentheses, followed by my prediction for how they’ll do this season.

 

 


 

AFC East

New England Patriots    (14-2)          13-3  

New York Jets                (11-5)          10-6  

Buffalo Bills                   (4-12)          6-10

Miami Dolphins              (7-9)            5-11

The Patriots’ window is beginning to close (QB Tom Brady is 34 years old), but they should kick ass for another 2 or 3 years anyway. It will be interesting to see how the acquisitions of WR Chad Johnson (I refuse to call him that other silly, made up name) and defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth pan out. The Jets are more bluster & hype than anything, and no matter what load of bull the talking heads at ESPN try to sell you replacing WR Braylon Edwards with Plaxico “Bullets” Burress is like trading in a 2009 Camaro for a 1995 Nissan. QB issues in Buffalo & Miami must be addressed before they can get back on the road to respectability.

 

 

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens          (12-4)          11-5

Pittsburgh Steelers        (12-4)           11-5

Cleveland Browns         (5-11)           7-9

Cincinnati Bengals        (4-12)           1-15

As a lifelong Steelers fan I am more than a bit concerned that they did virtually nothing to address shortcomings at the CB position this offseason. I think the Ravens take the division & the Steelers secure a wild card. I really like QB Colt McCoy, but the Browns aren’t quite ready to “make a statement” just yet. The Bungles are a complete mess after the unexpected “retirement” of QB Carson Palmer, but on the bright side look to be the early leaders in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes.

 

 

AFC South

Houston Texans             (6-10)          9-7

Indianapolis Colts          (10-6)          9-7    

Tennessee Titans (6-10)          8-8

Jacksonville Jaguars     (8-8)            6-10

I have been commenting on the inevitable slow decline of the Colts the past two years, and we’ll really see it in 2011. Major health questions about Indy QB Peyton Manning will open the door for the Texans to finally break through after having addressed concerns about their lackluster pass defense in the offseason (unlike the Steelers). Jacksonville has to have atleast one, preferably two, receivers emerge from the potpourri of journeymen currently on the roster to relieve the pressure on tailback Maurice Jones-Drew. Tennessee has a similar issue…a need to improve the passing attack so defenses can’t just stack the line to stop speedy RB Chris Johnson.

 

 

AFC West

San Diego Chargers       (9-7)            11-5

Oakland Raiders             (8-8)            8-8

Kansas City Chiefs        (10-6)           8-8

Denver Broncos             (4-12)           3-13

It’s now or never for the Chargers. With a rumored move to Los Angeles on the horizon I believe they will finally fulfill the potential they seem to have had for several years. I think the Chiefs take a bit of a step back in 2011, and the neverending QB brouhaha in Denver won’t help their cause. For what it’s worth…my two cents is that Tim Tebow is not an NFL quarterback and never will be.

 

 

Playoff Teams       –        New England, Baltimore, Houston, San Diego, NY Jets, Pittsburgh

AFC Champion      –        San Diego

The Patriots, Jets, Steelers, & Ravens will get all the buzz, but I’m predicting it’ll be the San Diego Chargers who will represent the AFC in The Super Bowl.

 

 

 

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles       (10-6)          12-4

Dallas Cowboys             (6-10)          9-7

New York Giants           (10-6)          5-12  

Washington Redskins    (6-10)          4-11

Things in Irving, TX have been strangely quiet this summer – none of the usual salivating and hyperbole over how great the Cowboys will supposedly be. I believe that will turn out to be a good thing. The hype machine has instead been relocated to Philly, where every available free agent seems to have landed. Unlike their counterparts in Big D I think the Eagles will live up to expectations…until they get to the playoffs. Redskins fans are still waiting on coach Mike Shanahan to work his magic but have to be suspicious that the real Shanahan has been replaced by some sort of clone with the IQ of Forrest Gump or President Obama’s economic advisors. John Beck & Rex Grossman are your top 2 QBS?? Really?? And yes, I don’t think the NY Giants will be nearly as good as most others seem to think they will.

 

 

NFC North

Green Bay Packers        (10-6)          14-2

Detroit Lions                  (6-10)          10-6

Chicago Bears                (11-5)           9-7

Minnesota Vikings         (6-10)          8-8

One must realize that the Green Bay Packers won The Super Bowl with about half their team on injured reserve. This leads me to believe they will be even better in 2011…until they get to the playoffs. Detroit is the trendy pick to make the leap from pretender to contender, and I agree. I have maintained for years (just like my pal Rush Limbaugh) that QB Donovan McNabb is overrated, so don’t look for major improvement from the Vikings.

 

 

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6)          12-4

New Orleans Saints       (11-5)          8-8

Atlanta Falcons              (13-3)           8-8

Carolina Panthers          (2-14)          3-13

The Falcons traditionally have problems putting together back-to-back great seasons, so look for a dropoff in Hotlanta, as well as N’awleans. It doesn’t matter whether rookie QB Cam Newton is handed the starting job or 2nd year signal caller Jimmy Clausen holds on, the Panthers will still be bad. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if they ended up in a situation where they have the chance…even with those two guys on the roster…to draft Stanford QB Andrew Luck?? Fortunately I think the Bengals will solve that problem. So that leaves the TB Bucs to continue their improvement under the leadership of young quarterback Josh Freeman and be a surprising championship contender.

 

 

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals          (5-11)          10-6

St. Louis Rams               (7-9)           9-7

San Francisco 49ers      (6-10)           8-8

Seattle Seahawks          (7-9)            6-10

I’m sold on new Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb. I also like Rams field general Sam Bradford but don’t believe he has enough reliable weapons yet. New 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will acquit himself quite well in his inaugural season, but is likely to figure out that Alex Smith is not the long term answer under center. I wasn’t enamored with any of the offseason moves in Seattle. QB Tarvaris Jackson makes Alex Smith look like Roger Staubach.

 

 

 

Playoff teams        –        Philadelphia, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Dallas, Detroit

NFC Champion      –        Tampa Bay

Many are already drooling about a potential Eagles-Packers championship game, but I believe one of those teams will stumble early in the playoffs and the other will fall in the title contest to the Bucs.

 

 

 

2012 Draft Lottery

1             Cincinnati Bengals                         QB  Andrew Luck (Stanford)

2             Denver Broncos                             QB  Landry Jones (Oklahoma)

3             Carolina Panthers                          WR  Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina)

4             Washington Redskins                    QB  Matt Barkley (Southern Cal)

5             NY Giants                                     WR  Justin  Blackmon (Oklahoma St.)

2009 NFL Preview – AFC

The word for this year’s NFL season is parity. Yes…..I realize that’s not an original thought. You hear it dozens of times from all the talking heads on ESPN, CBS, Fox, and NBC…..your friendly neighborhood purveyors of NFL action. But honest to God I really believe it to be the case this year. There are a few teams (Cleveland, Kansas City, Detroit) that continue to wallow in the land of dreadful despite all the usual machinations such as new coaches and noteworthy free agent signings or trades. And there are a few elite teams (Pittsburgh and the New York Giants for example) that continue to ride the tasty wave of success with no signs of decline. But the vast majority of the league seems to be atop a high wire, where a key injury or bad move by the coach will dictate the fickle difference between 7-9 and 11-5 but no amount of tinkering will make them neither elite nor awful. It’s one of the reasons we love the NFL…..it’s unpredictable and somewhat random. That being said, here’s my take on how we might see the season unfold. As always…please, no wagering. I don’t claim to actually be good at this.

We’ll take a look at the AFC first, and then I will post a look at the NFC in a few days:

AFC EAST

Miami Dolphins 11-5

Bill Parcells is large and in charge. And his head coach Tony Sparano seems like a true disciple. That’s a good thing. There’s a sense of stability in Miami that hasn’t been present for awhile, and in the NFL stability is usually a positive trait. The big question will be whether or not The Wildcat offense is something the rest of the league has figured out, or if the Dolphins can add enough new twists to keep it  fresh.

New York Jets                      10-6

The Jets are on the right path. I have a good feeling about rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Sure he’ll have some growing pains, but he can’t be any worse than what the departed Bret Favre was the second half of last season. New coach Rex Ryan is a defensive guru, so that side of the ball should see improvement.

New England Patriots       10-6

I can’t explain it, but I just sense the magic slipping away in Foxboro. I’m not convinced that Tom Brady is as healthy as desired, and a running attack featuring a three headed monster of Laurence Maroney, BenJarvis Green, and Fred Taylor just isn’t that overwhelming. I’m not saying New England will be a bad team, but I think they are in for much more of a dogfight in their division than most folks seem to believe.

Buffalo Bills                          4-12

No, I do not think that Terrell Owens is the savior this team needs. Though he’s been quiet thus far it is likely only a matter of time before he becomes the divisive force he’s been everywhere he’s played. Unfortunately for the Bills they are not in a position of strength where they can withstand such distractions. Dallas and Philadelphia thrived despite T.O.’s antics. Buffalo will not. Plus, this division is just too tough. The Bills may be looking at 6 losses just within their own division, and then they have games against Tennessee, Atlanta, and Indianapolis. Dick Jauron is a decent coach with the misfortune of being hired by subpar teams. Time to update the resume again Dick.


AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts               10-6

The Colts, much like the Patriots, have been the cream of the crop for a long time. Did you realize that Peyton Manning is 33 years old and a veteran of 11 years?? Chinks in the armor have slowly developed over the past couple of years, but they have merely downgraded Indy from elite status to extremely good. And some of these emerging concerns aren’t so much a function of this team getting worse, but a recognition of other teams’ improvement. This division used to be Indy’s for the taking, but it has gotten quite competitive. The Colts have a new coach and Marvin Harrison isn’t around for Manning to throw to anymore. However, at the end of the day I still feel like no one is up to the task of dethroning the kings just yet…..until they get to the playoffs of course.

Tennessee Titans                10-6

Speaking of dethroning, Tennessee did do exactly that last year to the Colts. But I don’t believe they can pull off another 13-3 season. The defense is always above average, but the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency will have an impact. On offense the question is whether Kerry Collins, who up until last season had the aura of career backup, can continue his magic carpet ride. And what about Vince Young?? He all the sudden became a headcase in 2008 which is what allowed Collins to emerge as a star. The running attack is solid with the fleet of foot Chris Johnson and the bruising (and apparently sober) Lendale White. Whomever ends up being the QB has a few folks to throw to now thanks to the additions of free agent WR Nate Washington and first round choice Kenny Britt.

Houston Texans                  9-7

I keep waiting on the Texans to break through, but they continue to be just so-so with occasional flashes of potential. I’m not sure Matt Schaub is the answer at QB, and another receiver is needed so defenses can’t just key on Andre Johnson. Steve Slaton proved all the talking heads who said he wasn’t feature back material wrong, but I do believe the running game would benefit from adding a big battering ram for goal line and short yardage situations. Defensively this team just seems to be missing a piece or two. Being in the same division as Indianapolis and Tennessee doesn’t help matters, but that’s out of anyone’s control. The best game plan in Houston might be to sit tight and continue to improve one player at a time until that inevitable day when Peyton Manning retires.

Jacksonville Jaguars           7-9

I think the Jags will be slightly better than last season, but not much. The team took significant steps to improve the offensive line, and I’m of the opinion that that is the vital foundation of any good football team. RB Fred Taylor absconded to New England in a desperate attempt to win a ring, so Maurice Jones-Drew (some people call him The Space Cowboy, some call him The Gangster of Love) is the man now, and that’s probably a good thing. Veteran wideout Torry Holt will bolster the receiving corps along with a seemingly rejuvenated Troy Williamson who is determined to shed the “bust” label with which he has been saddled. There are two threads on which Jacksonville’s season hangs. The first is the defense. They are usually among the league’s best, but dropped off noticeably in 2008. The other is QB David Garrard. Once upon a time Garrard had a Randall Cunningham vibe. Last year it was more like Richie Cunningham. Nothing has happened this offseason to make me believe a momentous turnaround is on the horizon.


AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers                        11-5

Full disclosure…..I am a lifelong diehard Steeler fanatic. Admittedly it is hard for me to be completely objective when talking about my team. But I’m going to give it the old college try and leave it up to the reader’s discretion as to whether I’m on point or completely delusional. The Steelers are the defending Super Bowl Champions…..but let’s look deeper. They won last year despite having what was almost unanimously regarded as the league’s toughest schedule. They won despite both star RB Willie Parker and first round draft choice Rashard Mendenhall having major injuries and having to rely on third string RB Mewelde Moore. They won despite having an offensive line that no one was expecting to be very solid. So, extrapolating some logic from those statements, one could possibly surmise that with an easier schedule, both top runners healthy, and an offensive line that gelled better than anyone expected and now has an extra year of experience the Steelers might be even better in 2009. But not even I am willing to go that far. Defending Super Bowl champions haven’t had much luck the past decade or so, and this team did suffer some personnel losses. Will Limas Sweed validate being a high draft choice last year by stepping into the 3rd receiver role vacated by Nate Washington?? Will free agent signee Keiwan Ratliff be a suitable replacement for departed cornerback Bryant McFadden?? I’m not sure about the answers to those questions right now. Plus, the target is bigger than ever and one team in particular, the hated Ravens, will be gunning for the champs. But I get the sense that Mike Tomlin won’t let his team become unfocused, so to be honest I’m not all that concerned. I am predicting another banner year for the black n’ gold.

Baltimore Ravens                           10-6

The Ravens were oh-so-close last year. It’s rare when an 11-5 record doesn’t lock up a division title. QB Joe Flacco had a surprisingly proficient rookie season and the defense was as intimidating as everyone has come to expect. I don’t expect much of a drop off this year. It will be interesting to see how the departure of defensive coordinator Rex Ryan (the new head coach of the New York Jets) affects the chemistry. My guess is not much, atleast not in any measurable dynamic. I suppose a sophomore slump is possible for Flacco, but it is unlikely. Ray Lewis isn’t getting any younger, but he’s still got a couple great years in the tank. In almost any other division in the league Baltimore would be a runaway choice to come out on top. They just have the misfortune of playing in the same division with the only defense better than theirs.

Cincinnati Bengals                          8-8

A lot of folks derisively call them The Bungles, and it is a richly deserved bad reputation. They’ve had a lot of issues both on and off the field. Carson Palmer is theoretically healthy and fully recovered from past injuries which should help tremendously. Still, questions…and doubts…abound. I personally don’t believe that Laverneous Coles is an upgrade or even an even swap for departed receiver TJ Houshmandzadeh, and when your team is relying on underachieving Cedric Benson to carry the rushing load that’s a bad sign. The team drafted an OT with the 6th overall pick in the draft, but first he held out until late in the pre-season and then he broke his foot in practice, so there goes that idea. Long removed from the Super Bowl hay days of Boomer Esiason, Chris Collinsworth, and  Icky Woods, the modern day Bengals just seem snakebitten. I really like coach Marvin Lewis, who had much success as a defensive coach in Pittsburgh, Washington, and most notably Baltimore.  But I’m not sure even the re-animated corpses of Vince Lombardi and Tom Landry combined could polish this turd. It’s a testament to the talent of Palmer (and having Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit, and Cleveland – twice, on the schedule) that I’m even predicting a .500 finish.

Cleveland Browns                          6-10

I’m a Steelers fan so I hate the Browns, but I missed them when they were gone from the league for a few years. I was glad when they were reborn. But holy cow have they been dreadful since that triumphant return. They just can’t seem to find even a glimmer of hope, a small buoy in a raging sea of mediocrity. Atleast the Bengals have Palmer. The Browns pinned all their hopes a couple years ago on Notre Dame alumnus Brady Quinn. I never thought Quinn was that good even in college, and he hasn’t been good enough to seize the reins for the Browns. If you aren’t good enough to be the clear cut starting QB for such a bad team then you aren’t good enough period. New head coach Eric Mangini is a Bill Belichick disciple, which has been proven to mean diddly squat. Former Browns coach Romeo Crennel was a Belichick guy too, and that didn’t work well at all. Mangini himself was run out of New York, although I think maybe the Jets pulled the trigger a bit prematurely. Maybe some guys are meant to be really well respected coordinators and aren’t necessarily head coach material. Being in the same division with the Steelers and Ravens is just brutal.


AFC WEST

San Diego Chargers           14-2

Predicting the best record in the NFL for San Diego is as much about the atrocious division they play in than anything else. There are probably even a handful of college teams that could beat the three other teams in this division this season. San Diego has been a rather good team the past few seasons, and I don’t expect that to change. Yes, Ladainian Tomlinson has lost a step. But that’s like saying it’d take Mike Tyson 5 rounds to knock out Michael Spinks rather than the 1 round it took him 20 years ago. So what?? Shawne Merriman should be fully healthy now, so the defense will be better than it was in 2008. Philip Rivers just signed a fat contract, which might make him lazier but instead I believe it’ll make him relaxed and more effective. Vincent Jackson needs to step up and be the go to receiver many have thought him capable of being, and big time TE Antonio Gates needs to stay healthy. I truly believe that last year’s 8-8 season was a mirage, a one time off year that can be attributed to injuries to a few key players. That is unlikely to happen two straight seasons.

Denver Broncos                  8-8

The Josh McDaniels era hasn’t exactly gotten off to a rousing start…..and they haven’t even played a game yet. McDaniels is another of the aformentioned branches on the Belichick coaching tree, one that hasn’t proven very fruitful thus far. I don’t think this guy is going to change that fact. The whole Jay Cutler debacle was an inauspicious launch for the new regime, and even though Cutler undoubtedly acted like a petulant child the blame must be shared by coach McDaniels. I understand wanting “your guy” as a new coach. I get it. But it wasn’t as if Cutler was a bad quarterback. It’s not even like the Broncos were a bad team. They were 8-5 last year and then lost the final 3 games. If they would have won the last game they would have been in the playoffs. The biggest issue was the defense, which ranked near the bottom in most categories. The coach obviously miscalculated what bringing in QB Matt Cassel, whom he had worked with in New England, would do to Cutler’s psyche. Cassel didn’t even end up with the Broncos, but that didn’t matter. The damage was done and Cutler whined his way out of Denver and into a pretty decent gig with Chicago. The Broncos?? Well…they ended up with Kyle Orton. It’s akin to having Russell Crowe lined up to star in your new movie but he drops out and you end up with Keanu Reeves. This will not end well. They did draft what most considered the top RB in the draft in Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno, and he’ll be backed up by Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan. Not a flashy running attack but it should be effective. I atleast like this trifecta more than New England’s. Some pieces were added on defense thru the draft and free agency, but I don’t see any real difference makers. In 2008 the Broncos finished with a .500 record, and I’m generously predicting the same record in 2009, which begs the question…why exactly did they fire Mike Shanahan??

Oakland Raiders                 5-11

Al Davis is still alive and kicking, and that is bad news for the once mighty Raiders. Seriously, what has happened to this team?? It is one of the premiere franchises in the NFL…..infamous, successful, bold. But the aging and apparently crazy Davis has turned them into a laughing stock. The man is 80 years old. Someone needs to make him retire. I’m just not impressed by anything the Raiders have to offer. They have a new coach. Whatever. They have Jamarcus Russell as the QB of the future and brought in Jeff Garcia to be a mentor and capable backup. Sorry…..still doesn’t stir anything within my soul. Even Darren McFadden is an overhyped RB who’ll get you 2 yards but just look flashier doing it than most other backs. They didn’t draft anyone inspiring either. It’s just more of the same from a team that seems to have no direction.

Kansas City Chiefs              3-13

Speaking of no direction, that brings us to the Chiefs. All you need to know about this team is that their new head coach is apparently going to attempt to be the quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator too. The man is clearly a control freak and in over his head. The jury is still out on Matt Cassel, the newly acquired starting QB. Cassel wasn’t even a starter in college at USC, where he backed up both Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart. Last season he got his opportunity with the Patriots after Tom Brady went down with a knee injury. I get the fact that almost anyone is an upgrade over Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen, but the fact is that we are talking about a guy who shined for only one season and that happened to be with one of the best supporting casts in football. The road to hell is paved with the short lived careers of football players who were really good for a year or two. Running back Larry Johnson has seen his production dramatically curtailed the past two seasons, and he is on the threshold of 30, the age when rushers traditionally begin a steep decline. Perennial all-pro tight end Tony Gonzalez got tired of losing and demanded a trade, so he’s now in Atlanta with the Falcons. There just isn’t much good news for the Chiefs. If Cassel proves himself more than just a one year wonder, and if Johnson has a career renaissance or possibly Jamaal Charles steps into that spot and breaks out, then maybe this team can do better than last season. But my gut instinct is that improvement will not manifest itself until next season.