Y’all, I realize we’re not writing the Great American Novel here. I don’t even know if anyone reads this stuff other than me & Zach. It’s a fun little thing that I do because I am easily amused. Having said that, there are times when the struggle is real, and I can’t seem to find the motivation to follow thru with this “fun little thing”. Thankfully, I impose upon myself a deadline. Whether or not we’re picking a Thursday game, our picks are posted before kickoff of those games. It seems silly to call it pressure, so I’ll just call it a beneficial guideline.
Observations from Last Week:
I predicted a final score of 27-7, Indiana over Minnesota. The actual score was 31-7. Not too shabby 🤔.
It was a pleasure watching the Pitt Panthers get absolutely dog walked by Notre Dame at home.
Upon further review, perhaps we should pump the brakes on LaNorris Sellers. He needs to transfer to a school with a more skilled offensive line and spend another year (or two) focusing on the mental aspect of being a quarterback.
I don’t understand 4th & goal inside the one yard line being run out of the shotgun. Why make it more difficult than necessary??
The Washington Commanders should move Heaven & Earth to acquire defensive players Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, & T’Vondre Sweat and christen them The Sweat Hogs.
My Season: 38-34
Zach’s Season: 32-40
TCU at Houston (-1.5)
The Big 12 is still up for grabs, but this is essentially a must-win for the 8-2 Cougars. The 6-4 Horned Frogs can only play a spoiler role after losing their last two games. I foresee a tight game that’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t think we’ll see an upset with the stakes so high. Zach likes Houston in a shootout.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Houston
Louisville at Southern Methodist (-3)
The 7-3 Mustangs are still in the thick of the ACC title hunt, plus they have the home field. The Cardinals are also 7-3, but have two more conference losses than SMU, meaning they’re pretty much eliminated from contention. The underdogs have also lost two consecutive games, and I can’t overlook momentum. Zach concurs.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: SMU
Tennessee (-4.5) at Florida
Neither team is getting near the SEC title game, but it’s pretty clear which one has had a more successful season. The 3-7 Gators have been in the headlines mainly for firing their head coach, with talking heads offering a plethora of speculation about who’ll be the next guy to get the gig. Conversely, the 7-3 Vols have had a nice season and probably exceeded expectations. At the very least they are the more stable program right now. Winning at The Swamp is always a tall order, but I think the visiting favorites will get the job done. Zach, on the other hand, believes Florida is a better team than we’ve been led to believe, while Tennessee is mediocre at best. He likes the Gators to feast in The Swamp.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Florida
Jacksonville (-2.5) at Arizona
With QB Kyler Murray injured, the 3-7 Cards have handed the keys to Jacoby Brissett, although I don’t think it really matters. It’d be shocking if Jonathan Gannon is still the head coach in Arizona next season. Meanwhile, the 6-4 Jags are just Jagging as usual. They win some, they lose some. No one outside the state of Florida cares, and even in the state Jacksonville is probably the sixth favorite football team at best. I have to lean toward the visiting favorites, because Trevor Lawrence is atleast supposed to be a good quarterback. Zach appreciates Jax’s dominant upset of the Chargers last week, and though he doesn’t see Arizona as being that bad defensively, he’s still picking the favorites.
My Pick: Jacksonville
Zach’s Pick: Jacksonville
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-3.5)
In my humble opinion the oddsmakers are wrong, or perhaps just disrespectful. A three point home field bump is the standard jumping off point in the NFL, but Indy is 8-2 with wins over Denver & the LA Chargers, while the Chiefs are 5-5 with a two game losing streak. Look, I get it…no one wants to fall into the trap of believing the Chiefs really aren’t great anymore, only for them to roar back and win their fourth Lombardi Trophy in the past six years. QB Patrick Mahomes is just 30 years old and in his prime. Andy Reid is still a great coach. However, at some point we have to start believing what we’re seeing. We can’t keep making excuses for KC while totally disregarding the Colts. That’s why this game is so important. Sure, there are playoff berths & division titles to be decided, but there is also a matter of respect. On Monday, will everyone be saying “See, I told you Indianapolis was just a bunch of posers”, or will doubters concede they’ve been wrong?? Will folks be giving Last Rites to the Chiefs dynasty, or will true blue die hards proudly proclaim “I KNEW they’d wake up!! We’re going back to the Super Bowl baby!!”?? I’m not sure about Indy’s chances to win it all, but I do think they’re the real deal and will prove it. Conversely, Zach thinks the Chiefs will somehow back into the playoffs, and he’s still not sold on Colts QB Daniel Jones.
I’ve never done a ton of research or crunched a bunch of data for this poll. I am not a sports journalist and I’m not getting paid for my thoughts, but as a football fan it’s a fun little project. If my forecast is off base we get a good laugh, and when I am occasionally accurate with predictions I can bask in the illusion that I know what I’m talking about. Having said that, it has become increasingly difficult to know what to expect from teams unless you are one of those “experts” who has intimate knowledge of a wide array of players that you’ve kept track of since they were initially recruited out of high school. In the past one could look at information like the number of returning starters or the previous season’s stats of a team’s senior QB. Perhaps it wasn’t a top factor, but experience used to atleast be a fairly good indicator for success. Now?? Most teams see their roster almost completely overhauled every year. Dozens of players transfer out, dozens transfer in. College football is a free-for-all, and that’s before we even try to figure out which conferences still exist and what teams play where. You know what though?? Soon enough, on each Saturday during the fall, dozens of stadiums will be filled with thousands of people, while millions vegg out at home glued to their television enjoying the action. Despite the greed, chaos, and collapse of tradition that has engulfed collegiate athletics in the past decade, we still love it. We keep coming back. We’re a captive audience and the powers-that-be know it. Perhaps a good therapist could help, but in lieu of that we’ll just plow forward and enjoy our glorious football weekends. Perhaps not as much as we once did, but still enough to give a damn.
The Sun Devils won the Big 12 a season ago before narrowly losing to Texas in the CFP. Second team All Big 12 QB Sam Leavitt & conference Newcomer of the Year receiver Jordyn Tyson are back, along with a good offensive line and a solid core on defense. Star RB Cam Skattebo has moved on to the NFL, which means potential Top 10 draft pick Leavitt will have to kick it up a notch. Given the tough road schedule I believe it’ll be difficult to match last year’s success.
The War Eagles have suffered thru four consecutive losing seasons and haven’t had double digit victories since 2017. Head coach Hugh Freeze is likely coaching for his job. New QB Jackson Arnold hopes to reenergize his career, which stalled at Oklahoma. I believe Auburn has a chance to score a couple of big upsets, which could get them to eight wins and a spot in the final poll.
23 Michigan
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/6 @ Oklahoma, 10/11 @ USC, 11/29 vs. Ohio St.
A season after winning the National Championship the Wolverines fell to seventh place in the Big Ten and lost to Alabama in a meaningless bowl game. It was head coach Sherrone Moore’s inaugural season, and to his credit he made some changes after a lackluster finish. New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey has held the same position at places like Auburn, UCF, & North Carolina, and he’ll have five star recruit Bryce Underwood as his starting QB. I am more concerned with Michigan’s defense, which lost three key starters in the first couple rounds of the NFL Draft. Moore & defensive coordinator Wink Martindale (who has a Super Bowl ring from his time on the staff of the Baltimore Ravens more than a decade ago) have their work cut out for them competing in one of the two elite conferences.
22 Boise State
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 10/4 @ Notre Dame
The Broncos ended last year being handled by Penn St. in the playoff, but back in September they upset Oregon and concluded the season as Mountain West champions. Can they blow thru the conference again?? Do they have a realistic opportunity to defeat Notre Dame in South Bend?? We’ll see.
21 Southern Methodist
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/6 vs. Baylor, 10/11 vs. Stanford, 11/1 vs. Miami
The Mustangs almost upset Clemson in the ACC title game, which was good enough for an at-large bid to the CFP. Of course Penn St. beat the snot out of them in the first round, causing many to question the validity of their berth. If they can pull off a couple of big upsets at home SMU could find themselves in that mix once again.
The Wildcats stumbled down the stretch last season, losing 3 of their final 4 regular season games before rallying past Rutgers in a bowl game fourth quarter comeback. They must replace running back DJ Giddens, now plying his trade with the Indianapolis Colts, but QB Avery Johnson returns for his junior year. Johnson replaced Will Howard a year ago after he transferred to Ohio St. K-State has won atleast nine games three seasons in a row, but their middle-of-the-pack defense will need to improve significantly if they want to match that this year. We’ll know alot more about their team and the Big 12 in general after Iowa St. & K-State do battle in Ireland during the season’s inaugural weekend.
The Gators had a tough season last year, but finished riding a four game winning streak. Quarterback DJ Lagway was 6-1 as a starter a season ago, which is a valid reason to be optimistic. Head coach Billy Napier enters his 4th season in Gainesville with a .500 record, which isn’t good enough. This feels like a make or break year for him.
18 Nebraska
Last Season: 7-6
Key Games: 9/20 vs. Michigan, 11/1 vs. USC, 11/28 vs. Iowa
The Cornhuskers finished with a positive record last season only after winning the Pinstripe Bowl. I am old enough to remember when Nebraska was in the upper echelon of college football, but they haven’t been relevant for atleast a decade. Matt Rhule is another coach on the hot seat after going 12-13 in his first two seasons. He’s brought in former WVU coach Dana Holgersen to be the offensive coordinator, which might pay immediate dividends with QB Dylan Raiola behind center. New defensive coordinator John Butler was on the staff of the Buffalo Bills the last couple of years, and he’ll need to make sure that unit is atleast as good as they were last season…preferably better.
To the surprise of absolutely no one with a brain the Sooners struggled in their inaugural SEC campaign. A decade from now I believe there will be enough data to definitively conclude that leaving the Big 12 was a terrible mistake for Oklahoma & Texas…but clearly worse for Oklahoma. Head coach Brent Venables is 22-17 is his four years at the helm in Norman, so he’s yet another guy whose seat is probably getting rather warm. Last season he benched starting QB Jackson Arnold (who has since transferred to Auburn) in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who went 1-4 as the starter. Now John Mateer, formerly of Washington St., has headed south alongside offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, so it’s literally a whole new ballgame at OU. Venables made his bones as a defensive coordinator at Clemson, so I think that side of the ball has to win some big games for Oklahoma to be successful.
16 South Carolina
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/20 @ Missouri, 10/11 @ LSU, 10/25 vs. Alabama, 11/29 vs. Clemson
Are my expectations way too high for the Gamecocks?? Probably. The schedule is brutal, and they lost five defensive starters in the NFL Draft. However, I really like QB LaNorris Sellers, who will be in the Heisman conversation before too long. Are a couple of stunning upsets on the horizon?? Don’t be shocked.
Once upon a time USC being a Top Ten championship contender was an annual inevitability, but they’ve only achieved double digit victories thrice in the past decade. Their move to the Big Ten was another huge misstep in the absurdity that has damaged collegiate athletics, but there’s no use crying over spilt milk. Defense will need to dominate, which is asking alot from a unit that ranked near the bottom of the conference a year ago. Still, even one big upset and a slight improvement over last year’s win total could land the Trojans in the final poll.
The Red Raiders are, much of the time, the most overlooked football team in Texas, which is understandable. However, they have had sporadic success and produced a few notable NFL talents, like QB Patrick Mahomes. You may have heard of him. Anyway, I feel like the Big 12 is wide open, just waiting for a team to emerge and become the new standard bearer. Of course the issue is that there are probably a half dozen teams that seem poised to seize that opportunity, making for a very competitive situation.
While the Tigers will have several new skill players on the roster they return a solid offensive line, which is arguably more important. One of their key additions from the portal is 2024 Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Josiah Trotter, formerly of the WVU Mountaineers. If the name sounds familiar it’s because he is the son of former Philadelphia Eagle Jeremiah Trotter and the brother of current Eagle Jeremiah Trotter Jr. It’s a huge loss for West Virginia because I believe Trotter will ball out and help Missouri’s defense rank near the top of the SEC. Missouri kind of snuck up on folks a season ago, but perhaps this year they won’t need to do that.
12 Miami (FL)
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 8/31 vs. Notre Dame, 9/20 vs. Florida, 11/1 @ SMU
The Hurricanes looked like a CFB contender for most of last season until losing 3 out of their last 4 (including the bowl game). They must replace their top four receivers from a year ago, and a new defensive coordinator will change things up a bit. Former starting QB Cam Ward was the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, but head coach Mario Cristobal pulled off the heist of the offseason by grabbing former Georgia QB Carson Beck from the portal. There is no question about talent in Coral Gables, it’s just a matter of developing chemistry amongst all the moving parts.
11 Georgia
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/27 vs. Alabama, 11/1 vs. Florida, 11/15 vs. Texas
You may be surprised to see the Bulldogs this low after they’ve had four consecutive double digit win seasons and won two out of the last four national championships. I just have a vibe…a feeling that the SEC is as competitive as it’s ever been and it is inevitable that a great team will have a slightly down year or two. Thirteen Bulldogs were drafted into the NFL, and QB Carson Beck transferred to Miami (FL). New signal caller Gunner Stockton has seen plenty of game action in the past, but I can’t help but think Georgia faces an uphill climb to compete for another conference title.
10 Clemson
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: 10/4 @ North Carolina, 10/18 vs. SMU, 11/29 @ South Carolina
I am really looking forward to Clemson vs. UNC, which happens one day before my birthday in October. Dabo Swinney vs. Bill Belichick…a total contrast in styles in every conceivable way. Hopefully Dabo opens up a can of whoopass on Ol’ Sourpuss, who’ll need to be consoled by his adolescent concubine. Anyway, we’ve kind of overlooked the Tigers the last few years after they fell off a bit from six consecutive appearances in the four team CFP that resulted in two national championships. In 2024 they were back in the playoff, losing to Texas in Round 1 after winning the ACC title. I expect similar results this year.
9 Alabama
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/27 @ Georgia, 10/18 vs. Tennessee, 10/25 @ South Carolina, 11/8 vs. LSU
Head coach Kalen DeBoer didn’t do too bad in his first year at the helm in Tuscaloosa, but “not too bad” is a stinging rebuke in those parts. Replacing a legend like Nick Saban is a tall order, and it remains to be seen if DeBoer is the long term solution. More than two dozen players departed via the portal, while seven were drafted into the NFL. The schedule is tough, and I’ll be very surprised if the Tide rolls into the SEC title game. Still, it is oddly amusing that a Top Ten finish might be seen as a disappointment.
8 Iowa State
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 8/23 vs. Kansas St., 11/1 vs. Arizona St., 11/29 @ Oklahoma St.
At 6ft.1, 210lbs. Rocco Becht might not have a foolproof future as an NFL quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a hell of a college player. The Cyclones have to replace alot of talent along the offensive line and in the secondary, but I see no reason not to expect double digit victories and perhaps a Big 12 title. We’ll know more right out of the gate, as Iowa St. faces Kansas St. in the only noteworthy game during “Week Zero”.
7 Ohio State
Last Season: 14-2
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Texas, 11/1 vs. Penn St., 11/29 @ Michigan
We’ll know quickly whether or not the defending national champions are up to the task of preserving that title. The Buckeyes had 14 players selected in the NFL Draft, including four in the first round. They’ve had several talented wide receivers thru the years, and sophomore Jeremiah Smith might end up being one of the best. However, when I look at the schedule, the players they lost, and the strength of the Big Ten, I’m not sure Ohio St. can equal last season’s success. As a matter of fact, I am probably overrating them.
One of the most surprising events of the offseason was Vols’ starting QB Nico Iamaleava transferring to UCLA after a disagreement about NIL money. Unfortunately such things are part of our new reality. Anyway, the new QB is Joey Aguilar, who is 24 years old and threw for over 6700 yards & 56 touchdowns in two years at Appalachian St. Tennessee was second in total defense in the SEC a season ago, and if they can maintain that intensity I believe there are some conference powerhouses that feel beatable this year.
5 Penn State
Last Season: 13-3
Key Games: 9/27 vs. Oregon, 11/1 @ Ohio St.
Full disclosure…I do not perceive Drew Allar as a future top tier NFL quarterback. We can revisit that assessment in a few years. Meanwhile, I do believe Allar is a perfectly fine college QB with plenty of experience and two bitter memories to avenge. The Nittany Lions fell short in the Big Ten title game a season ago, then, after receiving an at large bid to the CFP, Allar threw an interception with 30 seconds left in the semifinal game that set up a field goal victory for Notre Dame. Players can either be destroyed by such calamities, or they can grow thru them. I’ll be stunned if Penn St. doesn’t win atleast ten games, with the biggest mountains to climb a revenge game against Oregon in the cozy confines of Happy Valley, and a daunting trip to The Horseshoe against the defending national champions. I don’t even think they need to win both of those games. Win just one and they’ll snag a playoff berth. Of course winning the conference title and receiving a first round bye in the CFP would be the most accommodating path.
4 LSU
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 8/30 @ Clemson, 10/11 vs. South Carolina, 11/8 @ Alabama
My nephew Noah has high hopes for the Bayou Bengals, and I trust his judgment. LSU suffered a brutal three game losing streak late last season that torpedoed all of their hopes. Of course starting out by losing the season opener to a Southern Cal team that’d end up being 7-6 didn’t bode well either. It’s a new day in Baton Rouge though. QB Garrett Nussmeier’s father Doug played the same position for the New Orleans Saints and now serves as their offensive coordinator. Coaches’ kids are just built different, so despite what the sports media will undoubtedly try to sell ad nauseum this autumn, Nussmeier may be the best quarterback in college football and the best pro prospect. LSU lost seven players in the NFL Draft, and their 11th ranked SEC defense needs to improve, but I’ve got a good vibe. The season opener at Clemson is huge, so don’t miss it.
Arch Manning. You’ve probably heard the quarterback’s name mentioned a few thousand times the last couple of years, despite the fact that he hasn’t actually accomplished much. Look, I get it. His grandfather is a quasi-legend. His two uncles are both Super Bowl winning Hall of Famers. The bloodline is epic. But now it’s time to put up or shut up for young Arch. Fortunately he is surrounded by elite talent, despite the Longhorns losing a dozen players in the NFL Draft (it should’ve been 13, but that’s another story). The schedule makers obviously have a sense of humor (or an agenda), because the same Ohio St. Buckeyes that defeated Texas in the CFP semifinals last season will host them in the opener. I do not believe a loss destroys either team, nor do I think a victory preemptively crowns them. However, we can’t deny that it’ll set a tone.
2 Oregon
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 9/27 @ Penn St.
It had to be a crushing blow for the Ducks. In their inaugural Big Ten season they are 13-0 and win the conference title…then get manhandled from the jump by an Ohio St. team they’d beaten a couple of months earlier. I’ll be surprised by anything less than ten wins, with everything riding on a late September visit to Happy Valley. QB Dante Moore leveled up by transferring from UCLA, and he’s just one of many new faces in Eugene. Ten former Ducks went in the NFL Draft, and their was a ton of portal activity, both incoming & outgoing. Like many other programs, it is probably unfair to judge Oregon based on last year because it’s almost a whole new team. That being said, I have faith in head coach Dan Lanning to assemble all the right puzzle pieces and guide them down the right path.
It physically hurts me to do this. I’ve always had a vague disdain for Notre Dame for various reasons and almost always root against them. However, I cannot deny that, despite their stubborn refusal to join a conference that looks much more astute with each passing year and the tediously fawning sports media, the Fighting Irish remain legitimately relevant year after year. Last season they made it all the way to the CFP championship game before a terrible second quarter doomed them to defeat. Not only do I not believe they’ll suffer an inexcusable loss as they did during last year’s regular season (Northern Illinois?? REALLY??), but if Notre Dame gets out of the gate 2-0 then batten down the hatches. Replacing Riley Leonard at QB won’t be easy, but it’s not as if he was Montana or Theismann. RB Jeremiyah Love will be invited to the Heisman ceremony (before losing out to a quarterback). Only six Irish players were selected in the NFL Draft (none of them in the first round), so it feels like there is a real opportunity to be even better than last year. The only question is if they can get over the hump and take that final step to the first Notre Dame championship since 1988. Somehow, in the midst of conference realignment, NIL free agency, ESPN devouring the sports world like Godzilla, and vacuous talking heads fellatiating the SEC and the Big Ten, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have almost become venerable underdogs. How the hell did that happen?!?!??
With the dawn of a new era in college football we’ve decided to forego our traditional Bowl-a-Palooza and incorporate the playoff games into our normal routine. Let’s face it…most of the bowl games have been superfluous for awhile now, and with interim coaches & transfer portal madness it has become nearly impossible to predict them with any degree of legit knowledge. By all means, if ESPN is airing the Cereal Bowl featuring East State vs. Big City Tech at 4pm on a Tuesday afternoon please enjoy it. Sometimes those random matchups are rather delightful. For our purposes here though, we’ll stick with games that have some degree of importance. I must reluctantly admit that last week (1-4) was abysmal for me, which means that I have finally fallen below .500 for the season, while Zach (3-2) has closed the gap to within three games. Buckle up…it’s going to be a wild stretch run.
My Season: 48-51
Zach’s Season: 45-54
Indiana at Notre Dame (-7.5)
Somehow the rankings happened to fall into place just right, making this intra-state battle possible. Funny how that worked out. At any rate, opinions vary on the 11-1 Hoosiers, especially after they were beaten by three TDs in Columbus a few weeks ago. Should they be here instead of Alabama?? I believe that results matter, and teams can only play the opponents on their schedule. The Hoosiers did that and only lost once, so I think they earned their spot. Meanwhile, the 11-1 Fighting Irish probably have a nearly guaranteed playoff berth anytime they win 9+ games, despite not being a member of any conference. Look…any football fan with actual insight into the game will admit that if these teams met a hundred times Notre Dame would win 80% of the time. Having said that, my Marshall Thundering Herd traveled to South Bend and upset Notre Dame a couple of years ago, so anything is possible. This is a Friday night kickoff, and I know the nephews & I will be hurrying home after our family Christmas dinner to watch. I’d be pleasantly surprised by an upset, but wouldn’t bet money on that happening. However, I feel like Indiana is being overlooked & disrespected just a bit. They’ll keep it close. Zach, however, points out that Notre Dame just signed head coach Marcus Freeman to a contract extension, and on the field they’ve crushed every opponent since an inexplicable early season loss to Northern Illinois. He sees Indiana as talented & well coached, but doesn’t feel like they have what it takes to keep pace in this game.
My Pick: Indiana
Zach’s Pick: Notre Dame
SMU at Penn State (-8.5)
Much of what I said about the previous matchup applies to this game as well. The 11-2 Mustangs aren’t receiving much love. A year ago they were playing in the AAC, and now they play in the ACC, which is probably the weakest of the Power 4. If they’d been blown out in the conference title game by Clemson it is likely that Alabama would’ve been handed this spot, but SMU played a hell of a 4th quarter and nearly pulled off a big comeback. Conversely, Penn St.’s playoff berth was never in question, despite losing the Big Ten Championship to Oregon. The 11-2 Nittany Lions are probably a little overrated, but they’ve mowed thru most of their schedule with tremendous success, which cannot be denied. Not to be repetitive, but once again…if these teams played one another a hundred times the home favorites would almost certainly win 80% of those games, but anything can happen in this one instance. I think SMU will be more than competitive for three quarters, but end up losing…by a touchdown. Conversely, Zach isn’t sure SMU belongs here and foresees a comfortable win by the home favorites.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: Penn St.
Clemson at Texas (-11.5)
I am somewhat surprised by the points. Sure, the 11-2 Longhorns quickly acclimated to the SEC and were only defeated by Georgia (twice). It is also true that the 10-3 Tigers aren’t as elite as they were while appearing in six consecutive (four team) CFPs and winning national championships in two of those years. However, a double digit spread feels disrespectful. Texas will probably win, but it won’t be by more than ten points. Zach is a big Dabo Swinney fan and agrees that Clemson will be more competitive than the “experts” believe.
My Pick: Clemson
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5)
Are people overlooking this game?? It’s an 8/9 matchup, so by definition it is expected to be the most competitive in the first round. The 10-2 Buckeyes were considered to be amongst the top teams in the country until being upset by Michigan a few weeks ago, and it seems like that forced everyone to view Ohio St. thru a whole new prism. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Volunteers can look back at a mid-October upset of Alabama as a huge reason why they’re here now. However, that’s all they really have to hang their hat on. Otherwise the schedule was rather prosaic. Georgia beat Tennessee by two touchdowns, and I think that’s the level Ohio St. is on. I’d love to be wrong. Rockytop brings alot of energy to the table. At the end of the day though, I believe the home team gets it done by ten points. To my utter shock & amazement Zach agrees that the Buckeyes are likely unhappy about how they’ve been talked about recently and will use that as motivation to win easily.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Ohio St.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Our only NFL game this week is an NFC East battle, although the division title has been pretty much decided. The 12-2 Eagles have won ten straight and will win the division, but they have their eyes on the NFC’s top seed & first round bye. The 9-5 Commanders are in the driver’s seat for a wildcard berth, but are far from a lock. I really like rookie QB Jayden Daniels and can see big things for him in the future if the front office continues to build a great team. However, sometimes one just has to be patient and wait for your turn, and it’s not Washington’s time right now. Philly is playing on a different level, and anything short of the Super Bowl will be a disappointment. RB Saquon Barkley may be the best free agent acquisition of the past decade, recapturing the magic that made him a 2017 Heisman finalist at Penn St. and reinvigorating a career that stalled over six seasons with the NY Giants. When these teams met in Philadelphia last month the Eagles won by 12, and I expect something similar now. Zach concurs.
Kudos to Zach for the win a week ago after picking Alabama over LSU. I did not see that particular beatdown coming. This week is a bit unusual, as we’re only picking one college game. The schedule just didn’t seem that appealing, which is odd considering those teams are coming down the stretch with conference titles & playoff berths still up for grabs. At any rate, we’ll pick up the slack with NFL matchups that will ultimately make a difference in division races & playoff seeding.
My Season: 35-32
Zach’s Season: 31-36
Tennessee at Georgia (-9.5)
The 8-1 Vols are leading the SEC and have two four game winning streaks this season, separated by one 4th quarter collapse at Arkansas. Meanwhile, the 7-2 Bulldogs, who have won two of the last three national championships, are fighting for their playoff lives. The margin for error is basically nonexistent for both teams, and what surprises me most are the points. Sure, they have the home field…but IF the Bulldogs win it won’t be by more than a touchdown. Conversely, Zach sees Tennessee as fool’s gold, while Georgia will be fighting mad with their backs against the wall. He doesn’t think they’ll lose two in a row.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Green Bay (-6.5) at Chicago
The NFC North, or what ESPN legend Chris Berman used to call the Norris Division, is up for grabs, with 6-3 Green Bay still in the hunt, although ultimately I believe the Detroit Lions Lions will prevail. At 4-5 the Bears seem to be just as bad as last season, with rookie QB Caleb Williams looking like the epic failure I knew he’d be. Don’t be surprised if the home team puts up a spirited fight for three quarters, but at the end of the day the Packers should win comfortably. Zach hasn’t given up on Williams yet, but understands the team overall just isn’t very good.
My Pick: Green Bay
Zach’s Pick: Green Bay
Atlanta at Denver (-2.5)
The 6-4 Falcons lead their division, which might surprise people, although it shouldn’t. I don’t believe they’re ready to pose a serious postseason threat to the better teams in the NFC, but progress is progress. Conversely, the 5-5 Broncos play in the same division as the only unbeaten team in the NFL (as well as back-to-back defending Super Bowl Champions), so they’ll need to be happy with whatever scraps of triumph they can snag here & there. Unfortunately for the home team I don’t think even the much ballyhooed high altitude of Denver will save them, and I don’t know what the hell the oddsmakers were smoking. Zach has a little more faith in the Broncos to remain competitive, but agrees that the visitors will walk away victorious.
My Pick: Atlanta
Zach’s Pick: Atlanta
Seattle at San Francisco (-6.5)
It’s a bit of a shocker that both teams sit behind Arizona in their division, although I expect that’ll change soon enough. The 4-5 Seahawks have got to tighten things up on defense because they won’t defeat many opponents who score 25+ points. The 5-4 Niners are in slightly better shape and can blame alot of their problems on injuries. This feels like a must-win for both teams. Having said that, I will boldly predict that one of them will win the division instead of the Cardinals, and perhaps both end up in the playoffs…even the loser this week. I don’t know who comes out n top, but I believe it’ll be way closer than the “experts” indicate. Zach observes ‘Frisco getting healthy, which spells trouble for their opponents.
My Pick: Seattle
Zach’s Pick: San Francisco
Kansas City at Buffalo (-2.5)
The best game of the week (probably) will be played in the late afternoon window on Sunday, which means I can skip Chris Collinsworth violating my ears Sunday night. The Chiefs are undefeated, with a variety of meaningless opinions being tossed around as to how that has occurred. The Bills are 8-2 and have essentially already won their otherwise putrid division. Look, we already know how this goes…both are playoff locks who are strong Super Bowl favorites no matter what happens this week. What matters is seeding and who will (potentially) host the AFC title game. The outcome may differ in that presumed future contest, but with the home field, and considering the fact that KC will be relying on a backup kicker after Harrison Butker suffered a knee injury, I foresee Buffalo winning. Zach believes Kansas City has been lucky to remain unbeaten, and in a last minute, game winning drive scenario predicts that QB Patrick Mahomes will keep them perfect for the time being.
Neither one of us had a good week, thanks in part to underwhelming performances by the Wisconsin Badgers & Houston Texans. We’ll try to do better, starting on Friday night. Kudos to Fox, which, for the moment anyway, has replaced the departed WWE Smackdown (now airing on USA Network, which is fine with this wrasslin’ fan), with a Friday night football game. That means that we are able to enjoy football five out of seven nights. I rarely leave The Bachelor Palace these days as it is, but now I can feel good about it for awhile.
My Season: 11-12
Zach’s Season: 12-11
Illinois at Nebraska (-8.5)
The college football world has been awaiting Nebraska’s return to relevance for a very long time. They haven’t had a winning season since 2016 and haven’t won ten games since 2012. The Cornhuskers have cycled thru six head coaches since the legendary Tom Osborne retired in 1997. Currently they sit at 3-0, but now the real work begins. The Illini are also 3-0, including an impactful victory over Kansas. This will be the first road game for Illinois, and there will be 90k fans ready to rumble in Lincoln on Friday. I like the home team, but I think the points are a little much. Nebraska probably wins by a 5-8 point margin. Conversely, Zach doesn’t see anything to dislike about Nebraska and believes they’ll get a big victory.
My Pick: Illinois
Zach’s Pick: Nebraska
Tennessee (-7.5) at Oklahoma
I don’t like Oklahoma in the SEC, but will reluctantly agree that it creates some intriguing matchups. The Vols are 3-0, having outscored their opponents 191-13. The 3-0 Sooners have the home field, but even the oddsmakers don’t see that as much of an advantage. I believe they are about to receive a very harsh welcome to their new conference, with the suits having to remind themselves that, financially atleast, it wasn’t a terrible decision, even it is a stupid move in every other way. Zach, on the other hand, predicts a high scoring shootout with very little defense.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma
Utah (-1.5) at Oklahoma State
The Utes were my preseason #1, and thru three games have not given me a reason to regret it. I ranked the Cowboys in my Top Ten and warned the masses not to sleep on this game. ESPN’s College Gameday will be less than a hundred miles away in Norman because…well of course they will be, but I think this will be the better game in that state. I’ll be thrilled if it’s as close as the odds indicate, but at the end of the day I have the visiting favorites pulling out a thriller, and these teams possibly meeting for a rematch in the Big 12 title game in a few months. Zach makes a valid point that Utah QB Cam Rising, who injured his hand a couple weeks ago and didn’t play at Utah St., is so important to his team that his absence would completely change the equation. That possibility is enough to swing the pendulum in the home team’s direction for him.
My Pick: Utah
Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma St.
Baltimore (-1) at Dallas
It warms my cockles to see these alleged Super Bowl contenders sitting at 0-2 & 1-1 respectively, with neither atop their division. Okay, okay…to be fair the Cowboys are in a three way tie, with the 0-2 Giants a game behind. Also, I realize both teams are likely to fix their issues and jump back into the playoff conversation. However, only one can emerge victorious on Sunday afternoon. It’s very interesting that the Cowboys are home underdogs, which probably means the “experts” believe they have bigger problems than their opponents. That being said, I am a bit of a contrarian who likes to go against conventional wisdom. While it pains me to have to cheer for either team, in this case I think Dallas defends their home turf with a single digit win. Zach opines that a Cowboys loss would put head coach Mike McCarthy on the hot seat, which would be fascinating given my prediction concerning him a year ago and my feeble decision to back off on the idea this season.
My Pick: Dallas
Zach’s Pick: Dallas
Washington at Cincinnati (-8)
Monday Night Football is on an early season roll, and I’m here for it. The Commanders are 1-1, but I think rookie QB Jayden Daniels has an opportunity to be special, especially if the team acquires another weapon or two so WR Terry McClaurin doesn’t have secondaries focusing on him. Meanwhile, the 0-2 Bengals have been disappointing thus far, but it’s way too soon to push the panic button. There is no shame in losing to the defending Super Bowl champions on their home field, especially when the zebras put their stamp on the game. I foresee Daniels putting on a show and almost singlehandedly keeping his team in the game, with Cincy ultimately getting the win but not covering the points. Zach opines that the Bengals have been playing down to the level of their opponents, but believes they’ll rise up and blow out Washington.
Folks, I don’t even know where to begin. I seriously contemplated not even doing a pre-season poll this year because, quite frankly, I’m not that excited about college football anymore. Money & politics have stained the sport, and I am simply too old to retain my usual level of plucky enthusiasm. A year ago I stated that “I will not let university suits or TV execs steal my joy”, but now I cannot deny that my fervor for the game has indeed significantly diminished. I can’t keep straight what conference half of these teams are members of anymore, and don’t have much interest in learning. I know that the Power 5 is now the Power 4 because the Pac 12 imploded. Perhaps in the long run that will be helpful in sorting out the playoff, but at the moment I perceive it as more dunking on tradition, whatever scraps of that may remain. Surely not a whole hell of alot. I am not even going to try to explain the new playoff format beyond its expansion from four to twelve teams, which neuters the impact of the regular season beyond its function as a time waster for couch potatoes with empty lives (like me) and a great excuse to get drunk for college students & rednecks in a state of arrested development. At any rate, let’s dive in!!
25 Southern Cal
Last Season: 8-5 (Won the Holiday Bowl)
Key Games: 9/1 vs. LSU, 9/21 @ Michigan, 11/30 vs. Notre Dame
Head coach Lincoln Riley came to USC with much fanfare, but in two seasons with future NFL bust Caleb Williams at QB he has achieved an unimpressive 19-8 record. Moving to the Big Ten won’t make things any easier, but sports media will prop up the Trojans if they can pull off an upset or two.
24 Iowa State
Last Season: 7-6 (Defeated in the Liberty Bowl)
Key Games: 10/5 vs. Baylor, 11/30 vs. Kansas St.
I went to high school with the mother & aunt of Cyclones’ QB Rocco Becht, and his father was a talented tight end for my WV Mountaineers in the late 90’s who had a solid career in the NFL. So are my expectations filtered thru rose colored glasses?? Perhaps, but I think the new Big 12 is intriguing and could provide a few surprises.
23 Tennessee
Last Season: 9-4 (Beat Iowa in the Citrus Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 @ Oklahoma, 11/16 @ Georgia
If you listen to the talking heads they’ll have half of the SEC ranked in the Top Ten, but the truth is that someone will lose a game or two. Word on the street is that sophomore QB Nico Iamaleava is an upgrade over Joe Milton, who is now plying his trade with the New England Patriots. We’ll see.
22 Miami (FL)
Last Season: 7-6 (Lost to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl)
Key Games: 10/14 @ North Carolina, 11/11 @ Florida St., 11/18 vs. Louisville
I don’t believe the ‘Canes will ever again be the dominant force that sat atop the college football world for much of the 1980s & ‘90s, but improving by a couple of games in a mediocre ACC is doable. They’ll need to beat atleast one favored opponent on the road.
21 Arizona
Last Season: 10-3 (Beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl)
Key Games: 9/13 @ Kansas St., 9/28 @ Utah
The Wildcats land in the…*checks notes*…Big 12, and they could have some early success. If you forced me at gunpoint to say something positive about realignment I might point to fresh matchups in which no one really knows what to expect. Arizona vs. BYU. Arizona vs. West Virginia. Arizona vs. UCF. I don’t think they’ll compete for a conference title or playoff berth, but matching last season’s success seems like a reasonable expectation.
20 Virginia Tech
Last Season: 7-6 (Beat Tulane in the Military Bowl)
Key Games: 9/27 @ Miami (FL), 11/9 vs. Clemson
The Hokies haven’t won 9+ games since 2017, and have had three head coaches since Frank Beamer retired in 2015. They improved tremendously in Year 2 under Brent Pry, and it doesn’t feel outlandish to expect further development, especially in a pedestrian ACC. Keep an eye on Clemson’s November visit to Blacksburg. The winner of that game could emerge as a conference title contender.
19 Texas
Last Season: 12-2 (Defeated in the CFP Semis by Washington)
Key Games: 9/7 @ Michigan, 10/2 vs. Oklahoma, 10/19 vs. Georgia
Well ‘Horns fans, you got what you wished for. Now it’s time to back up all the bragging & trash talk on the field against SEC opponents. Not only that, but the non-conference schedule features a visit to Ann Arbor to battle the defending national champions. The talent is unquestionable, but the path is treacherous. A playoff berth seems unlikely, but 9 or 10 wins doesn’t feel out of reach.
18 North Carolina State
Last Season: 9-4 (Lost the Pop Tarts Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 @ Clemson, 11/30 @ North Carolina
I can’t decide if the ACC is a model of parity or simply tedious. I am feeling generous so let’s call it more of the former than the latter. If the Wolfpack wants to equal the success of last season they’ll need to have some great games on the road.
17 Penn State
Last Season: 10-3 (Lost to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl)
Key Games: 10/12 @ USC, 11/2 @ Ohio St.
The Nittany Lions are amongst a plethora of teams that perpetually reside on the second level of college football. They’ll win alot more games than they lose and always field a talented team theoretically capable of beating just about anyone, but never quite reach elite status which would allow them to be perceived as a legit playoff contender. Ten wins and a solid bowl berth seems to be their ceiling.
16 Michigan
Last Season: 15-0 (CFP National Champions)
Key Games: 9/7 vs. Texas, 9/21 vs. USC, 11/2 vs. Oregon, 11/30 @ Ohio St.
I don’t believe that the loss of head coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL means that the defending national champions will crumble & slink away into obscurity, but they are unlikely to be serious title contenders. I suppose they could sneak into the playoff, but even that feels like a bit much to ask. They’ll lose atleast one huge game in The Big House.
15 LSU
Last Season: 10-3 (Beat Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl)
Key Games: 9/1 vs. USC, 11/9 vs. Alabama
I’ll be honest…this one makes me nervous. I never know what to expect from the Bayou Bengals. That being said, head coach Brian Kelly has had two consecutive ten win seasons since arriving in Baton Rouge. Opening against USC in Death Valley might be the most intriguing matchup of the first full weekend of action, and they also host ‘Bama in November. Can they match last season’s success?? We’ll see.
14 Boise State
Last Season: 8-6 (Lost the LA Bowl)
Key Games: 10/25 @ UNLV, 11/29 vs. Oregon St.
The Broncos are back!! After a couple of underwhelming seasons and a coaching change Boise has rebounded the past two years and won the Mountain West title a season ago, their first championship since 2019. I don’t expect them to upset Oregon in Eugene, but that’s a Week 2 non-conference battle. Their focus should be on winning ten games & another conference championship.
13 Appalachian State
Last Season: 9-5 (Won the New Mexico Bowl)
Key Games: 9/28 vs. Liberty, 11/23 vs. James Madison
The overhyped teams in the power conferences will beat each other up. Only one or two might emerge unscathed. That leaves room for a Group of 5 team (or two) to rise thru the rankings a bit. I believe the highest ranked conference champion of those “lesser” conferences is guaranteed a playoff berth. A year ago that would’ve been the C-USA champion Liberty Flames, but I’m predicting a horse race between Boise St. & the Sun Belt’s Appalachian St. The Mountaineers’ two key games are both in the cozy confines of Boone, NC.
12 Alabama
Last Season: 12-2 (Defeated in the CFP Semis by Michigan)
In case you hadn’t heard, Nick Saban is no longer the head coach at Alabama. He simply had nothing left to prove. New coach Kalen DeBoer is no slouch, having won 25 games the past two years with the Washington Huskies, including an appearance in last season’s CFP Title game. I don’t believe we’ll see that much of a decline for The Tide. Saban surely didn’t leave the cupboard bare. However, I think it is too much to expect an undefeated championship caliber effort out of the gate. Fans in Tuscaloosa will need to settle for a solid record & a playoff appearance.
11 Oregon
Last Season: 12-2 (Won the Fiesta Bowl)
Key Games: 10/12 vs. Ohio St., 11/2 @ Michigan
Expectations are thru the roof for the Ducks heading into their inaugural season in the…*checks notes*…Big Ten, but I’m not buying it. I don’t believe this is the team that walks into a new, STACKED conference and wins a title. They will not beat Ohio St., and upsetting Michigan in The Big House is a tall order. Ten wins & a playoff berth is the ceiling for Oregon right now.
10 Clemson
Last Season: 9-4 (Beat Kentucky in the Gator Bowl)
Key Games: 10/5 @ Florida St., 11/9 @ Virginia Tech
The Tigers have not lived up to their lofty standards the past few years, last making a playoff appearance in 2020. That is likely to change with the new format, but I’m still not convinced they are serious title contenders. Of course the first task is to win the ACC, which means the game in Tallahassee on my birthday is a must win.
9 Missouri
Last Season: 11-2 (Beat Ohio St. in the Cotton Bowl)
Key Games: 10/5 @ Texas A&M, 10/26 @ Alabama
It is easy for the Tigers to get lost in the SEC shuffle, but a season ago they announced their presence with authority, with wins over Tennessee & Florida. I’m not sure how much credence to give their defeat of Ohio St. in the Cotton Bowl considering alot of the Buckeyes’ firepower was MIA, but it looks good on paper. Can Missouri mirror that success this year?? Don’t overlook their late season visit to Tuscaloosa. If there was ever a time to make a powerful statement that’d be it.
8 Mississippi
Last Season: 11-2 (Beat Penn St. in the Peach Bowl)
I will freely admit to caving into peer pressure on this one. The Rebels are getting a ton of preseason love from almost every outlet, so I assume where there’s smoke there has to be some fire. Still, visits to Tuscaloosa in September and Athens in October seem daunting. Winning both games, though a gargantuan task, would certainly secure a Top Ten ranking. Heck, pulling off just one upset would grab some attention. The linchpin to the entire season might just be hosting LSU only one week after visiting ‘Bama. The loser of that game probably tanks their playoff aspirations.
7 Oklahoma State
Last Season: 10-4 (Won the Texas Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 vs. Utah, 9/28 @ Kansas St.
Okay, okay…I actually did some research so I’d get this right. The Big 12 lost Texas & Oklahoma while gaining Arizona, Arizona St., Utah, and Colorado, and you’ll recall that Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, and Central Florida joined a year ago. What all of that boils down to is an opportunity to seize the top spot & become the new standard bearer for the conference. The Cowboys were in the mix last season, but they’re probably going to face a tough battle with newcomer Utah for conference supremacy. The Utes visit Stillwater in September. Don’t sleep on that game.
6 Florida State
Last Season: 13-1 (Obliterated by Georgia in the Orange Bowl)
After several years of mediocrity the Seminoles have rebounded the last couple of seasons, coming within a whisper of the playoff last year. It is likely that they would’ve received the nod if not for a serious injury to QB Jordan Travis, although the beatdown they received in the Orange Bowl caused people to wonder if it was all a mirage anyway. Travis has moved on to the NFL now, and Florida St. has the opportunity to answer any lingering doubts. They’re still in the ACC (for now), which is a double-edged sword. On one hand Clemson is probably the only obstacle to winning a conference title. Conversely, that title doesn’t earn much respect these days. A November trek to South Bend looks like the pivotal moment of their championship dreams.
The Fighting Irish will always be in the playoff conversation given their much ballyhooed history & independent status. An at-large bid is likely reserved in their name as long as they hover near the top half of the rankings. Perhaps I am being naive, but trips to College Station, TX & The Coliseum in L.A. don’t feel that intimidating. I believe Notre Dame wins both games. Hosting Florida St. to end the season is helpful, but it is also a classic trap game.
4 Kansas State
Last Season: 9-4 (Beat NC St. in the Pop Tarts Bowl)
Key Games: 9/28 vs. Oklahoma St., 11/30 @ Iowa St.
While Oklahoma St. will be in the Big 12 mix I foresee the Wildcats being the old school Big 12 team that’ll fend off (almost) all the newcomers. Winning on the road in Ames, IA to close the season is a tough mountain to climb, but I think it’ll clinch a conference title game appearance for K St. Undefeated?? It’s possible…until the playoff. They are not a legit national championship contender.
3 Ohio State
Last Season: 11-2 (Beaten by Missouri in the Cotton Bowl)
Key Games: 10/12 @ Oregon, 11/2 @ Penn St., 11/30 vs. Michigan
The Buckeyes lost some talented players to the NFL & in the transfer portal, but they also added a ton of five star recruits & well-regarded transfers. Not only do most expect them to not miss a beat, but it seems probable that they’ve actually gotten better. The Big Ten situation is a catch-22. On one hand changes at Michigan mean that they are unlikely to be as dominant and Ohio St. will probably be favored in that matchup. On the other hand, the conference has added Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington, so the path to a title is even tougher. I don’t know if undefeated is a realistic goal, but I am not sure it matters that much. Survive & advance to the Big Ten title game. Win the conference championship and receive a first round playoff bye. That’s the blueprint.
2 Georgia
Last Season: 13-1 (Destroyed Florida St. in the Orange Bowl
“To be The Man you’ve got to beat The Man”, and the only teams that have defeated the Bulldogs in the past three years are Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship (Georgia then beat The Tide to win the National Championship) and Michigan in last season’s title game. Georgia has become THE team. They are on another level, and will need every ounce of that superiority to repel their challengers. Sadly I still think “style points” are a thing, so even if the ‘Dawgs grind out an unbeaten regular season they might not hold the top spot if a couple of those victories are unimpressive. Visits to Tuscaloosa & Austin, TX are mountains Georgia must climb, and those trips feel rather perilous.
1 Utah
Last Season: 8-5 (Lost the Las Vegas Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 @ Oklahoma St., 11/23 vs. Iowa St.
Okay…stay with me. Imagine this scenario. Two loss SEC & Big Ten Champions emerge from the rubble. Notre Dame & the ACC Champ (either Florida St. or Clemson) both have one loss and a couple of tight wins. Meanwhile, the Utes, with 25 year old seventh year senior QB Cam Rising, who’s as old or older than half the starters in the NFL, returns after missing the whole season a year ago with a serious knee injury. Utah also returns 16 starters & 73% of their production from a year ago. In their inaugural Big 12 season Utah starts 4-0 before heading into Stillwater and getting a huge road win over Oklahoma St. They blow thru the remaining schedule like one of those tornadoes in Twister before winning the Big 12 title game over Kansas St. Can they stand tall against Big Ten & SEC opponents in the playoff?? Year in & year out…probably not. This season?? It seems plausible.
Annnnnnddd…we’re back. For the sake of readability I thought it best to break things down into two parts. If you haven’t done so already please peruse Part 1. We’ll leave a light on for you, and upon your return take a peak at a few of the more compelling games on the bowl schedule, including the College Football Playoff.
Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)
Friday 12/29
Noon/ESPN
Clemson vs. Kentucky
At first glance it doesn’t seem like an appealing matchup. However, one must consider that, after being a perennial playoff contender for a long time, the 8-4 Tigers are in a down cycle and not quite elite at the moment. Conversely, the 7-5 Wildcats have spent the past few seasons showing the world they aren’t just a basketball school. So, it actually might be a fun game between two solid yet unspectacular teams. Zach trusts Coach Swinney to lead Clemson to a convincing win.
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
Sun Bowl (El Paso)
Friday 12/29
2pm/CBS
Notre Dame vs. Oregon State
I like the Sun Bowl. While almost all of the other post-season games have been sucked into the Disney vortex the Sun Bowl has remained on CBS since 1968, and true to its name is played in the afternoon sunshine of El Paso, TX. I still vividly recall Oklahoma St. narrowly defeating my West Virginia Mountaineers in 1987 on the strength of 150+ rushing yards from Thurman Thomas, who would go on to have a Hall of Fame career with the Buffalo Bills. A backup RB named Barry Sanders contributed 19 yards. The 8-4 Beavers were another team I expected great things from, but the Pac 12 was just so damn good this season. The 9-3 Fighting Irish are exactly who I thought they’d be…solid but not elite. I am picking Oregon St. for various reasons, though I’m perfectly aware that starting QB DJ Uiagalele has entered the portal & the head coach bolted for Michigan St.
My Pick: Oregon St.
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
Friday 12/29
8pm/ESPN
Missouri vs. Ohio State
I’m picking this game because Zach’s hilariously irrational dislike of Ohio St. clouds his judgement. I’m not one of those people who think the Buckeyes should’ve received a playoff spot, but they are 11-1, with a six point loss to their archrivals in The Big House nothing to feel too bad about. The surprising departure of QB Kyle McCord into the portal is odd though. The 10-2 Tigers are one of the most pleasant surprises of the season, with a Veteran’s Day beatdown of Tennessee being a highlight. I think Missouri will prove alot of doubters wrong and it’ll be a fantastic game, but in the end a big night from receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. will seal the deal.
My Pick: Ohio St.
ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa)
New Year’s Day
Noon/ESPN2
Wisconsin vs. LSU
Originating as the Hall of Fame Bowl in 1986, it was known as the Outback Bowl for almost 25 years. In case you’re wondering ReliaQuest is a cybersecurity company in Tampa, FL. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels just won the Heisman Trophy, although his Tigers are a pedestrian 9-3. It feels odd to say that a team with nine victories underachieved, so perhaps it’d be more fair to say that head coach Brian Kelly is building something in Baton Rouge that needs a little more incubation. Meanwhile, the 7-5 Badgers have become a middle-of-pack team in a conference that is top heavy, with only a few teams receiving much love. Assuming Daniels plays, Zach doesn’t foresee the Bayou Bengals having a problem winning easily.
Zach’s Pick: LSU
Citrus Bowl (Orlando)
New Year’s Day
1pm/ABC
Iowa vs. Tennessee
There used to be a joke that you couldn’t spell citrus without UT, so it is amusing to see the 8-4 Vols land once again in a game they’ve played in a half dozen times, although to be fair several other teams (including Georgia & Michigan) have made just as many appearances. The 10-3 Hawkeyes fly under the radar, probably because their games tend to be low scoring defensive struggles. Zach thinks that kind of smashmouth style might help Iowa grind out a victory.
Zach’s Pick: Iowa
Rose Bowl (Pasadena)
College Football Playoff Semifinal
New Year’s Day
5pm/ESPN
Michigan vs. Alabama
I thought I’d do Zach a favor and not make him choose between his favorite team & one of his coaching heroes. Do I think ‘Bama deserved a playoff berth ahead of undefeated Florida St.?? Not really, but I understand it. The world robbed me of most of my idealism many years ago. Having said that, I believe the unbeaten Wolverines are a slightly superior team. I’d be shocked if we see a repeat of last year’s semifinal that saw TCU jump all over Michigan early then hold on for dear life for a close upset. Coach Harbaugh will have his guys better prepared this time. I’m not sure if defense truly does win championships nowadays, but I think that & special teams make the difference on this night.
My Pick: Michigan
Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)
College Football Playoff Semifinal
New Year’s Day
8:45pm/ESPN
Washington vs. Texas
There is a legit case to be made that Florida St. got screwed out of a playoff berth, but the question becomes who should’ve been left out?? Certainly neither of these teams. The undefeated Huskies vanquished every foe, including Oregon twice. The 12-1 Longhorns did taste defeat in the Red River Shootout, but a season opening victory over Alabama carries alot of weight. Zach foresees a shootout, with the Huskies escaping with a dramatic win.
Zach’s Pick: Washington
National Championship (Houston)
Monday 1/8/24
7:30pm/ESPN
Michigan/Alabama vs. Washington/Texas
Okay, so…I picked Michigan in their semifinal, while Zach chose Washington to win their game. I think Zach is right, and in that scenario it’d be Michigan against Washington for the title, which could be a classic. I just don’t think Jim Harbaugh is going to lose at this point. I believe he helps his alma mater win their first National Championship since 1997, and then, happy knowing that he left the program in better shape than he found it in nine years ago, heads back to the NFL. Conversely, Zach’s admiration for Nick Saban is unlimited, so he thinks the title game will pit Washington against Alabama, with an unintimidated Huskies squad pulling off a slightly surprising win to claim their first National Championship since 1991 when they shared the title with the Miami Hurricanes.
So I’m watching College Gameday on Saturday morning, only half paying attention, when they show very brief highlights of Oklahoma St. upsetting Kansas St. Not only did the result surprise me, but the fact that the game was over caught my attention since I had very specifically indicated in this space that it was a prime time game on Saturday. It turns out the game was played Friday night. I usually don’t make those kind of mistakes. Oops. At any rate, I lengthened my season lead just enough to get a little cocky, which means I’m about to self-destruct with bonus picks. It’s the circle of life.
My Season: 26-14
Zach’s Season: 21-19
Fresno State (-7) at Utah State
I had Fresno in my preseason poll, and at 5-1 they’re on track to meet expectations. Having said that, the Bulldogs are also looking to rebound from their first loss last weekend. Conversely, it’s been quite a roller coaster for the 3-3 Aggies, but atleast they have the home field. It’s a Friday night game that I might check out. I’m rolling with the favorites to earn a hard fought victory & just barely cover the points. Zach foresees State controlling the game on the ground early on, but Fresno coming alive late to score a double digit win.
My Pick: Fresno St.
Zach’s Pick: Fresno St.
Oregon at Washington (-1.5)
It’s the marquee matchup of the weekend. Even ESPN thinks so. Both teams are unbeaten and ranked in the Top 10, with the winner likely vaulting themselves into serious playoff position. Quarterbacks Bo Nix & Michael Penix will get all of the attention, but the true X Factor will be defense. Which defensive unit will slow down the opposing QB?? The Ducks have given up more than ten points just once, while the Huskies have held their opponents to single digits only once. I think it’ll be an instant classic, with the underdogs scoring a close upset, perhaps with a game winning field goal. Zach expects a high scoring game, with the deciding factor being whoever possesses the ball last. He believes that’ll be Oregon.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
Texas A&M at Tennessee (-3.5)
The 4-2 Aggies need to rebound from yet another loss to Alabama, a team they’ve only beaten once in the past decade. Meanwhile, the 4-1 Volunteers have comfortably won their last two games. Rocky Top is a formidable home field, and I just don’t think A&M is good enough to overcome it. Conversely, Zach thinks A&M’s defense will rise up to make a late stop and secure a big upset.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Auburn at LSU (-17)
Auburn is 3-2 after feeding on their out-of-conference schedule before going down in flames in the first two SEC contests. However, they are coming off of a bye week. The 4-2 Bayou Bengals are completely unpredictable. They’re one of only two 2-loss teams in the Top 25, but the other one is Notre Dame, who tumbled from the Top Ten after losing to Louisville. Here’s how I see it going down. It’s a back & forth battle all night long, with the underdogs having a legit opportunity to win. However, 100k+ fans in Death Valley in prime time is just too much, so the home team does just enough to score a nail biting victory…but they don’t cover the points. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Auburn
Zach’s Pick: Auburn
Iowa at Wisconsin (-4.5)
Wrasslin’ announcer Jim Ross would call it a slobberknocker. The 5-1 Hawkeyes haven’t allowed more than 16 points in any game, while the 4-1 Badgers have only been marginally more generous. I’d take the under on this one, and look for the home team to barely cover in a fairly close victory. Zach believes it’ll be even closer than that.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Zach’s Pick: Iowa
Southern California (-1) at Notre Dame
The Irish have lost two out of three and could fall out of the rankings with another defeat. Obviously they won’t be in playoff contention. Meanwhile, the Trojans are just barely undefeated after Arizona took them to three overtimes last week. The oddsmakers have essentially made it a pick ‘em largely based on the mystique of playing in the shadow of Touchdown Jesus, but since my Marshall Thundering Herd marched into South Bend a year ago and left with an enormous victory I’m not all that impressed by this particular home field. It’s a rivalry game & the talking heads will sell the heck out of it, but I don’t believe it’ll be particularly close. Zach thinks it will actually be a competitive game, but ultimately the favorites will get the job done.
My Pick: USC
Zach’s Pick: USC
Philadelphia (-6.5) at NY Jets
I apologize for sounding like a broken record, but this game would’ve been much more compelling with Aaron Rodgers under center for the Jets. At 2-3 the home team looks to simply be treading water. They won’t outduel the Dolphins or Bills for the division title, and there’s too much talent in the AFC to hope for a wildcard. A winning record of 9-8 would be a moral victory for the Jets, but I wouldn’t even count on that. Conversely, the undefeated Eagles are firing on all cylinders. There’s no doubt they’ll win their division, but have their eyes on a much bigger prize. Do I think they’ll finish unbeaten?? No. However, I don’t feel like Philly is a team prone to looking past opponents they are supposed to beat and getting caught in a classic “trap game”. They’ll take care of business then move forward. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Philadelphia
Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia
Dallas (-2) at LA Chargers
Okay, so my prediction that the Cowboys would finish 8-9 & head coach Mike McCarthy might be fired by Halloween may have been a bit overzealous. However, the idea that they’ll once again fall far short of lofty preseason expectations by so many others still holds water. I almost feel a skosh of sympathy for their tremendous defense that is forced to trot back out on the field every couple of minutes after yet another miscue by QB Dak Prescott, who is average at best. The 2-2 Chargers have the opposite issue. Their offense is on the verge of being elite, especially if they could overcome injuries, but the defense failed to slam the door shut on opponents the first couple of games. This is the Monday night contest and the home team is coming out of their bye week. It’s an insult that they aren’t favored, and I believe they will be out to prove a point. ‘Frisco showed that the Dallas defense can be scored on, so if the Chargers’ coaching staff is smart they’ll copy that blueprint. Zach knows that Dallas has been overrated, but feels like they’ll get the job done.
The only thing that could push Deion Sanders off the front page of sports news sites is a season ending injury to Aaron Rodgers. That’s the bad news. Good news?? Well, after a week long standoff Disney & Spectrum reached an agreement, so I got my ESPN back just in time to watch the entirety of Rodgers’ much anticipated Jets’ career, which lasted all of four plays. Perhaps karma is punishing New Yorkers for the absolute nut jobs they elect to positions of power. Anyway, I had a great week, going 4-1, while Zach slipped a little, going 1-4. That being said, we’re both off to solid, above .500 starts to the season, so we’ll see if we can keep that going.
My Season: 13-5
Zach’s Season: 10-8
Army at Texas-San Antonio (-9)
The Black Knights are 1-1 after mauling FCS Delaware St. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are also 1-1, rebounding from a close season opening loss to get by in-state rival Texas St. last weekend. This is a Friday night game and I have plans, so I’m not sure how much of it I’ll get to see. UTSA won the matchup on the road in overtime a year ago, but with the home field I’m confident they’ll win much more comfortably. Zach doesn’t believe Army will win, but despite tweaking their offensive playbook from the traditional flexbone triple option to a more shotgun based attack he still thinks the visitors will control time of possession & slow the hand down. If UTSA’s offense isn’t on the field as much they’ll score less points & are less likely to cover. That’s the theory anyway…we’ll see how it pans out.
My Pick: UTSA
Zach’s Pick: Army
San Diego State at Oregon State (-24.5)
The Aztecs are 1-1 after losing big to UCLA. The 2-0 Beavers have barely broken a sweat thus far. The points are a bit much, but it’d be a huge statement victory for the home team to win by nearly four touchdowns. Conversely, the points are enough for Zach to go against the grain. He feels like the home team will win, but not by more than three TDs.
My Pick: Oregon St.
Zach’s Pick: San Diego St.
Tennessee (-6.5) at Florida
Before the season began I predicted success for the Vols, but had no expectations that they’d equal last year’s 11-2 record & Top 10 ranking. They’re 2-0 and haven’t allowed more than 13 points from an opponent, but now the real work begins. The Gators are 1-1, but feasted FCS McNeese St. a week ago. It’s a pretty big game because the winner can get on with SEC business and try to climb to the top of the standings, while the loser could be negatively impacted to the point that we look back & view this as the moment their season imploded. I’m far too lackadaisical to do actual research, but I will assume that being underdogs in The Swamp has been rare for the home team thru the years. I think Florida is a team in transition, and I don’t know how patient the folks in Gainesville will be with second year head coach Billy Napier. He could solidify some job security with a big upset, but I don’t believe that’ll happen. Zach agrees with me that Tennessee is good not great, but thinks they’ll win by a touchdown.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Tennessee
Washington at Denver (-3.5)
The Commanders (for now) got off to a good start with a victory over Arizona, while the Broncos fell to the Raiders. My lack of faith in Denver is reinforced, atleast for the moment, and Washington looks to be as tediously solid as I thought. You’re going to hear a lot about the challenges of playing in the higher elevation of the Rocky Mountains, but I’m not sure that’s really such a big deal. I don’t think we should read too much into Week 1, but I’ve seen enough to stick with my preseason expectations. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
NY Jets at Dallas (-7.5)
This game seemed a whole lot more interesting a few days ago, but that was before the Cowboys dominated their season opener & the Jets lost Aaron Rodgers four plays into theirs. My predictions that the Cowboys would have a losing record & head coach Mike McCarthy will lose his job look rather shaky at the moment, although I still believe Philadelphia wins the division. Injuries are always a factor in torpedoing preseason notions, but after all the hype & expectation it is mind boggling to see the Jets’ entire year implode so quickly & in such monumental fashion. Zach doesn’t think the Jets need to be all doom & gloom. He believes QB Zach Wilson will be okay and defense & special teams will win some games for them. He’s not all-in on the Cowboys & thinks their offense isn’t that good.
As has become our annual tradition I want to encourage any non-sports fans in The Manoverse to stick with me. These picks dominate the landscape each autumn, and it doesn’t help that I’ve not been as prolific for…well, awhile. I have lots of things in my head, but motivation has been a huge problem for various reasons. I’ll try to do better going forward. In football related matters you’ll notice that we’re light on college action and leaning more into the NFL, which is unusual for September. I expect that’ll change next week though.
My Season: 11-13
Zach’s Season: 14-10
Baylor at Iowa State (-2.5)
In my preseason poll I ranked Baylor 7th but noted that they’d need to be road warriors to get there, and now here we are. The Bears have beaten up two cupcakes and narrowly lost to BYU in overtime, while the Cyclones are 3-0 with a close win over in-state rival Iowa. This is probably going down to the wire with special teams & turnovers playing a key role in the outcome, and I’ve got to stick to my earlier thought process. I think Baylor gets a tight road victory. Zach foresees a defensive slug fest, and he likes State’s defense just a little better.
My Pick: Baylor
Z’s Pick: Iowa St.
Florida at Tennessee (-11)
I consulted multiple sources because I just couldn’t believe the points, but what you see is accurate. The Vols are 3-0 and ranked 11th, scoring two blowout wins against MAC competition & an impressive overtime road victory over the Pitt Panthers. Conversely, the 2-1 Gators appear to be riding a roller coaster, with a huge season opening upset of Utah, a loss to SEC rival Kentucky, and a tougher than it should’ve been escape against in-state challenger South Florida. Still, as impressive as Tennessee has been & as many questions as there may be about Florida, eleven points seems a bit much, even with the game being played in Knoxville. Zach thinks Florida had looked sluggish, but he agrees the points are too much.
My Pick: Florida
Z’s Pick: Florida
Buffalo (-4) at Miami
The Bills are firing on all cylinders right now, and are certainly one of the two or three best teams in the NFL. However, the Dolphins have been impressive as well. Receiver Tyreek Hill has breathed new life into Miami’s offense, and I’ve been shouting from the rooftops for awhile now that it’s way too soon to give up on QB Tua Tagovailoa. The home crowd is going to be jacked for this one, and it would be a major statement win for a Fins team that hasn’t played in the postseason since 2016. Not only is Zach also picking the upset, but he thinks this could be an AFC Championship preview.
My Pick: Miami
Z’s Pick: Miami
Detroit at Minnesota (-6.5)
I told y’all that the Lions would be the surprise of the NFC North, and so far they’ve looked as good as a 1-1 team can. As a matter of fact, all four teams in the division…including the Vikings…are tied. This will be the beginning of the separation, when we differentiate the contenders from the pretenders. I don’t believe that either club will be playoff bound or even finish with a winning record, but I do think Detroit is the better team. Zach isn’t totally sure he knows the outcome, but he definitely thinks it’ll be closer than a touchdown.
My Pick: Detroit
Z’s Pick: Detroit
San Francisco (-1) at Denver
‘Frisco lost starting QB Trey Lance to a broken ankle, but, while that’d be a season killer for most teams, I don’t believe it makes all that much difference in this case. Lance may end up being a decent NFL quarterback, but I have my doubts and don’t think he was ready yet anyway. Jimmy Garoppolo might not be the next Joe Montana, but he’s capable enough to step right back into the starter role without the team missing a beat. The Niners should count their lucky stars they didn’t trade him. On the flip side the Broncos haven’t looked as impressive as I expected with Russell Wilson behind center. I feel like both teams are going to need their defenses to carry them, and to that end I foresee a low scoring contest decided by field goals, time of possession, field position, & penalties. Something like a 15-13 kind of game, with the visiting favorites escaping with a win. Zach likes the Jimmy G. story and thinks he’ll lead his team to victory.
The Manofesto 