Y’all, I realize we’re not writing the Great American Novel here. I don’t even know if anyone reads this stuff other than me & Zach. It’s a fun little thing that I do because I am easily amused. Having said that, there are times when the struggle is real, and I can’t seem to find the motivation to follow thru with this “fun little thing”. Thankfully, I impose upon myself a deadline. Whether or not we’re picking a Thursday game, our picks are posted before kickoff of those games. It seems silly to call it pressure, so I’ll just call it a beneficial guideline.
Observations from Last Week:
I predicted a final score of 27-7, Indiana over Minnesota. The actual score was 31-7. Not too shabby 🤔.
It was a pleasure watching the Pitt Panthers get absolutely dog walked by Notre Dame at home.
Upon further review, perhaps we should pump the brakes on LaNorris Sellers. He needs to transfer to a school with a more skilled offensive line and spend another year (or two) focusing on the mental aspect of being a quarterback.
I don’t understand 4th & goal inside the one yard line being run out of the shotgun. Why make it more difficult than necessary??
The Washington Commanders should move Heaven & Earth to acquire defensive players Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, & T’Vondre Sweat and christen them The Sweat Hogs.
My Season: 38-34
Zach’s Season: 32-40
TCU at Houston (-1.5)
The Big 12 is still up for grabs, but this is essentially a must-win for the 8-2 Cougars. The 6-4 Horned Frogs can only play a spoiler role after losing their last two games. I foresee a tight game that’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t think we’ll see an upset with the stakes so high. Zach likes Houston in a shootout.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Houston
Louisville at Southern Methodist (-3)
The 7-3 Mustangs are still in the thick of the ACC title hunt, plus they have the home field. The Cardinals are also 7-3, but have two more conference losses than SMU, meaning they’re pretty much eliminated from contention. The underdogs have also lost two consecutive games, and I can’t overlook momentum. Zach concurs.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: SMU
Tennessee (-4.5) at Florida
Neither team is getting near the SEC title game, but it’s pretty clear which one has had a more successful season. The 3-7 Gators have been in the headlines mainly for firing their head coach, with talking heads offering a plethora of speculation about who’ll be the next guy to get the gig. Conversely, the 7-3 Vols have had a nice season and probably exceeded expectations. At the very least they are the more stable program right now. Winning at The Swamp is always a tall order, but I think the visiting favorites will get the job done. Zach, on the other hand, believes Florida is a better team than we’ve been led to believe, while Tennessee is mediocre at best. He likes the Gators to feast in The Swamp.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Florida
Jacksonville (-2.5) at Arizona
With QB Kyler Murray injured, the 3-7 Cards have handed the keys to Jacoby Brissett, although I don’t think it really matters. It’d be shocking if Jonathan Gannon is still the head coach in Arizona next season. Meanwhile, the 6-4 Jags are just Jagging as usual. They win some, they lose some. No one outside the state of Florida cares, and even in the state Jacksonville is probably the sixth favorite football team at best. I have to lean toward the visiting favorites, because Trevor Lawrence is atleast supposed to be a good quarterback. Zach appreciates Jax’s dominant upset of the Chargers last week, and though he doesn’t see Arizona as being that bad defensively, he’s still picking the favorites.
My Pick: Jacksonville
Zach’s Pick: Jacksonville
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-3.5)
In my humble opinion the oddsmakers are wrong, or perhaps just disrespectful. A three point home field bump is the standard jumping off point in the NFL, but Indy is 8-2 with wins over Denver & the LA Chargers, while the Chiefs are 5-5 with a two game losing streak. Look, I get it…no one wants to fall into the trap of believing the Chiefs really aren’t great anymore, only for them to roar back and win their fourth Lombardi Trophy in the past six years. QB Patrick Mahomes is just 30 years old and in his prime. Andy Reid is still a great coach. However, at some point we have to start believing what we’re seeing. We can’t keep making excuses for KC while totally disregarding the Colts. That’s why this game is so important. Sure, there are playoff berths & division titles to be decided, but there is also a matter of respect. On Monday, will everyone be saying “See, I told you Indianapolis was just a bunch of posers”, or will doubters concede they’ve been wrong?? Will folks be giving Last Rites to the Chiefs dynasty, or will true blue die hards proudly proclaim “I KNEW they’d wake up!! We’re going back to the Super Bowl baby!!”?? I’m not sure about Indy’s chances to win it all, but I do think they’re the real deal and will prove it. Conversely, Zach thinks the Chiefs will somehow back into the playoffs, and he’s still not sold on Colts QB Daniel Jones.
I suppose it’s more of a postscript than a tribute, but a fond farewell to Lee Corso, whose final appearance on College Gameday occurred last weekend. Perhaps ESPN laid it on a little thick, but Corso’s swan song was well done, and all of the kind words heaped on him by everyone from Matthew McConaughey & Will Ferrell to various coaches, players, and talking heads felt genuine and well-earned. Gameday has been a part of my autumn Saturday morning routine for nearly four decades, which will continue, although it’ll be just a bit different without Corso. I’ve always embraced nostalgia and lived long enough to see many longstanding traditions slip into the ether. Life moves forward, but a tip o’ the cap to those rituals that make moments memorable for as long as they do. Godspeed Coach Corso…may you enjoy the winter of your days with happiness & peace.
Observations from Last Week:
Quite surprised by upsets of Boise St. & Alabama. I had no idea former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is now Florida St.’s offensive coordinator.
Atleast in college football, defense can still win championships.
I have officially entered the stage of life when I can no longer hang until the west coast games end on Saturday night 😴.
LaNorris Sellers would look great in a Pittsburgh Steelers uniform.
My Season: 3-2
Zach’s Season: 1-4
Baylor at SMU (-4)
The Bears were beaten convincingly by Auburn last weekend, while the Mustangs had no problem easily dispatching an FCS opponent. I don’t think much will change this week. Zach doesn’t trust Baylor’s defense and believes the home team will win a high scoring contest.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: SMU
Iowa at Iowa State (-3.5)
The Battle of Iowa is a hidden gem amongst collegiate rivalries. The Hawkeyes lead the series, which dates back to 1894, 47-24. However, the Cyclones have won two of the past three games. State is already 2-0, while their Big Ten counterparts whipped up on an FCS opponent last week. My high hopes for the home team remain intact, and I believe they’ll win by a touchdown. Zach foresees a low scoring defensive struggle, with the home field tipping the scales.
My Pick: Iowa St.
Zach’s Pick: Iowa St.
Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5)
The Wolverines dominated New Mexico in their season opener, while the Sooners are another team that got things started by defeating an FCS foe. There’s been alot of behind the scenes turmoil in Ann Arbor, but I don’t believe it will significantly impact their season. Oklahoma has been a model of inconsistency for the past few years, but there seems to be renewed optimism in Norman. I don’t know who will ultimately win the game, but I think it’ll be decided one way or another by a field goal, perhaps in overtime. Zach, on the other hand, is utilizing reverse psychology from the jump, opining that he is concerned about Michigan’s defense and an uninspiring performance last weekend.
My Pick: Michigan
Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma
Dallas at Philadelphia (-7.5)
Hey y’all, the NFL is back!! The season kicks off Thursday night in Philly, and of course we all know there’s been alot going on with the Cowboys. I did not see the Micah Parsons trade coming, which considerably alters my outlook for Dallas and Green Bay. For this game specifically, I don’t foresee a path to victory for the visitors, although the points concern me a bit. Can the defending Super Bowl Champions Tush Push their way to a TD+ win?? I think they can. Zach isn’t concerned at all and thinks the home team wins easily.
My Pick: Philadelphia
Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia
Kansas City (-3) vs. LA Chargers
Keep an eye on the AFC West this season. The Chargers could mount a legit challenge to the Chiefs, and obviously a victory right out of the gate would help their cause. This is a Friday night game emanating from Brazil. It’ll be broadcast on YouTube, with kickoff set for 8pm EST (it’ll be 9pm in Sao Paulo, which could affect the players). My gut tells me that the crowd will be in KC’s corner because they’re a better known international brand. I also have more faith in head coach Andy Reid to navigate the unique circumstances and have his team prepared. Zach believes tight end Travis Kelce has been distracted and not focused on football. He also has positive vibes about the long term success of the Chargers. However, he can’t go against the Chiefs in this particular situation.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Kansas City
Detroit at Green Bay (-2.5)
As mentioned, the addition of pass rusher Micah Parsons to the Packers defense improves their outlook tremendously, perhaps making them clear favorites in the NFC North. Green Bay also has the home field, which could be important in a tight game. I haven’t lost faith in the Lions, but I believe they’ll begin the season with a loss. Zach feels that Detroit is still a better team and will win a close game.
My Pick: Green Bay
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
Baltimore at Buffalo (-1.5)
It’s the Sunday night game on NBC. The Bills are my pick to win the Super Bowl, but I have seen “experts” predict they won’t even win their division. Conversely, the Ravens are favored by almost everyone whose opinion you’d trust to win theirs and make a serious Super Bowl run. It might not be the smart choice, but I’m sticking with my preseason thoughts and pulling for Josh Allen to matriculate down the field deep into the 4th quarter to defend his home turf. Zach concurs.
I’ve never done a ton of research or crunched a bunch of data for this poll. I am not a sports journalist and I’m not getting paid for my thoughts, but as a football fan it’s a fun little project. If my forecast is off base we get a good laugh, and when I am occasionally accurate with predictions I can bask in the illusion that I know what I’m talking about. Having said that, it has become increasingly difficult to know what to expect from teams unless you are one of those “experts” who has intimate knowledge of a wide array of players that you’ve kept track of since they were initially recruited out of high school. In the past one could look at information like the number of returning starters or the previous season’s stats of a team’s senior QB. Perhaps it wasn’t a top factor, but experience used to atleast be a fairly good indicator for success. Now?? Most teams see their roster almost completely overhauled every year. Dozens of players transfer out, dozens transfer in. College football is a free-for-all, and that’s before we even try to figure out which conferences still exist and what teams play where. You know what though?? Soon enough, on each Saturday during the fall, dozens of stadiums will be filled with thousands of people, while millions vegg out at home glued to their television enjoying the action. Despite the greed, chaos, and collapse of tradition that has engulfed collegiate athletics in the past decade, we still love it. We keep coming back. We’re a captive audience and the powers-that-be know it. Perhaps a good therapist could help, but in lieu of that we’ll just plow forward and enjoy our glorious football weekends. Perhaps not as much as we once did, but still enough to give a damn.
The Sun Devils won the Big 12 a season ago before narrowly losing to Texas in the CFP. Second team All Big 12 QB Sam Leavitt & conference Newcomer of the Year receiver Jordyn Tyson are back, along with a good offensive line and a solid core on defense. Star RB Cam Skattebo has moved on to the NFL, which means potential Top 10 draft pick Leavitt will have to kick it up a notch. Given the tough road schedule I believe it’ll be difficult to match last year’s success.
The War Eagles have suffered thru four consecutive losing seasons and haven’t had double digit victories since 2017. Head coach Hugh Freeze is likely coaching for his job. New QB Jackson Arnold hopes to reenergize his career, which stalled at Oklahoma. I believe Auburn has a chance to score a couple of big upsets, which could get them to eight wins and a spot in the final poll.
23 Michigan
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/6 @ Oklahoma, 10/11 @ USC, 11/29 vs. Ohio St.
A season after winning the National Championship the Wolverines fell to seventh place in the Big Ten and lost to Alabama in a meaningless bowl game. It was head coach Sherrone Moore’s inaugural season, and to his credit he made some changes after a lackluster finish. New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey has held the same position at places like Auburn, UCF, & North Carolina, and he’ll have five star recruit Bryce Underwood as his starting QB. I am more concerned with Michigan’s defense, which lost three key starters in the first couple rounds of the NFL Draft. Moore & defensive coordinator Wink Martindale (who has a Super Bowl ring from his time on the staff of the Baltimore Ravens more than a decade ago) have their work cut out for them competing in one of the two elite conferences.
22 Boise State
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 10/4 @ Notre Dame
The Broncos ended last year being handled by Penn St. in the playoff, but back in September they upset Oregon and concluded the season as Mountain West champions. Can they blow thru the conference again?? Do they have a realistic opportunity to defeat Notre Dame in South Bend?? We’ll see.
21 Southern Methodist
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/6 vs. Baylor, 10/11 vs. Stanford, 11/1 vs. Miami
The Mustangs almost upset Clemson in the ACC title game, which was good enough for an at-large bid to the CFP. Of course Penn St. beat the snot out of them in the first round, causing many to question the validity of their berth. If they can pull off a couple of big upsets at home SMU could find themselves in that mix once again.
The Wildcats stumbled down the stretch last season, losing 3 of their final 4 regular season games before rallying past Rutgers in a bowl game fourth quarter comeback. They must replace running back DJ Giddens, now plying his trade with the Indianapolis Colts, but QB Avery Johnson returns for his junior year. Johnson replaced Will Howard a year ago after he transferred to Ohio St. K-State has won atleast nine games three seasons in a row, but their middle-of-the-pack defense will need to improve significantly if they want to match that this year. We’ll know alot more about their team and the Big 12 in general after Iowa St. & K-State do battle in Ireland during the season’s inaugural weekend.
The Gators had a tough season last year, but finished riding a four game winning streak. Quarterback DJ Lagway was 6-1 as a starter a season ago, which is a valid reason to be optimistic. Head coach Billy Napier enters his 4th season in Gainesville with a .500 record, which isn’t good enough. This feels like a make or break year for him.
18 Nebraska
Last Season: 7-6
Key Games: 9/20 vs. Michigan, 11/1 vs. USC, 11/28 vs. Iowa
The Cornhuskers finished with a positive record last season only after winning the Pinstripe Bowl. I am old enough to remember when Nebraska was in the upper echelon of college football, but they haven’t been relevant for atleast a decade. Matt Rhule is another coach on the hot seat after going 12-13 in his first two seasons. He’s brought in former WVU coach Dana Holgersen to be the offensive coordinator, which might pay immediate dividends with QB Dylan Raiola behind center. New defensive coordinator John Butler was on the staff of the Buffalo Bills the last couple of years, and he’ll need to make sure that unit is atleast as good as they were last season…preferably better.
To the surprise of absolutely no one with a brain the Sooners struggled in their inaugural SEC campaign. A decade from now I believe there will be enough data to definitively conclude that leaving the Big 12 was a terrible mistake for Oklahoma & Texas…but clearly worse for Oklahoma. Head coach Brent Venables is 22-17 is his four years at the helm in Norman, so he’s yet another guy whose seat is probably getting rather warm. Last season he benched starting QB Jackson Arnold (who has since transferred to Auburn) in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who went 1-4 as the starter. Now John Mateer, formerly of Washington St., has headed south alongside offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, so it’s literally a whole new ballgame at OU. Venables made his bones as a defensive coordinator at Clemson, so I think that side of the ball has to win some big games for Oklahoma to be successful.
16 South Carolina
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/20 @ Missouri, 10/11 @ LSU, 10/25 vs. Alabama, 11/29 vs. Clemson
Are my expectations way too high for the Gamecocks?? Probably. The schedule is brutal, and they lost five defensive starters in the NFL Draft. However, I really like QB LaNorris Sellers, who will be in the Heisman conversation before too long. Are a couple of stunning upsets on the horizon?? Don’t be shocked.
Once upon a time USC being a Top Ten championship contender was an annual inevitability, but they’ve only achieved double digit victories thrice in the past decade. Their move to the Big Ten was another huge misstep in the absurdity that has damaged collegiate athletics, but there’s no use crying over spilt milk. Defense will need to dominate, which is asking alot from a unit that ranked near the bottom of the conference a year ago. Still, even one big upset and a slight improvement over last year’s win total could land the Trojans in the final poll.
The Red Raiders are, much of the time, the most overlooked football team in Texas, which is understandable. However, they have had sporadic success and produced a few notable NFL talents, like QB Patrick Mahomes. You may have heard of him. Anyway, I feel like the Big 12 is wide open, just waiting for a team to emerge and become the new standard bearer. Of course the issue is that there are probably a half dozen teams that seem poised to seize that opportunity, making for a very competitive situation.
While the Tigers will have several new skill players on the roster they return a solid offensive line, which is arguably more important. One of their key additions from the portal is 2024 Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Josiah Trotter, formerly of the WVU Mountaineers. If the name sounds familiar it’s because he is the son of former Philadelphia Eagle Jeremiah Trotter and the brother of current Eagle Jeremiah Trotter Jr. It’s a huge loss for West Virginia because I believe Trotter will ball out and help Missouri’s defense rank near the top of the SEC. Missouri kind of snuck up on folks a season ago, but perhaps this year they won’t need to do that.
12 Miami (FL)
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 8/31 vs. Notre Dame, 9/20 vs. Florida, 11/1 @ SMU
The Hurricanes looked like a CFB contender for most of last season until losing 3 out of their last 4 (including the bowl game). They must replace their top four receivers from a year ago, and a new defensive coordinator will change things up a bit. Former starting QB Cam Ward was the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, but head coach Mario Cristobal pulled off the heist of the offseason by grabbing former Georgia QB Carson Beck from the portal. There is no question about talent in Coral Gables, it’s just a matter of developing chemistry amongst all the moving parts.
11 Georgia
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/27 vs. Alabama, 11/1 vs. Florida, 11/15 vs. Texas
You may be surprised to see the Bulldogs this low after they’ve had four consecutive double digit win seasons and won two out of the last four national championships. I just have a vibe…a feeling that the SEC is as competitive as it’s ever been and it is inevitable that a great team will have a slightly down year or two. Thirteen Bulldogs were drafted into the NFL, and QB Carson Beck transferred to Miami (FL). New signal caller Gunner Stockton has seen plenty of game action in the past, but I can’t help but think Georgia faces an uphill climb to compete for another conference title.
10 Clemson
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: 10/4 @ North Carolina, 10/18 vs. SMU, 11/29 @ South Carolina
I am really looking forward to Clemson vs. UNC, which happens one day before my birthday in October. Dabo Swinney vs. Bill Belichick…a total contrast in styles in every conceivable way. Hopefully Dabo opens up a can of whoopass on Ol’ Sourpuss, who’ll need to be consoled by his adolescent concubine. Anyway, we’ve kind of overlooked the Tigers the last few years after they fell off a bit from six consecutive appearances in the four team CFP that resulted in two national championships. In 2024 they were back in the playoff, losing to Texas in Round 1 after winning the ACC title. I expect similar results this year.
9 Alabama
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/27 @ Georgia, 10/18 vs. Tennessee, 10/25 @ South Carolina, 11/8 vs. LSU
Head coach Kalen DeBoer didn’t do too bad in his first year at the helm in Tuscaloosa, but “not too bad” is a stinging rebuke in those parts. Replacing a legend like Nick Saban is a tall order, and it remains to be seen if DeBoer is the long term solution. More than two dozen players departed via the portal, while seven were drafted into the NFL. The schedule is tough, and I’ll be very surprised if the Tide rolls into the SEC title game. Still, it is oddly amusing that a Top Ten finish might be seen as a disappointment.
8 Iowa State
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 8/23 vs. Kansas St., 11/1 vs. Arizona St., 11/29 @ Oklahoma St.
At 6ft.1, 210lbs. Rocco Becht might not have a foolproof future as an NFL quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a hell of a college player. The Cyclones have to replace alot of talent along the offensive line and in the secondary, but I see no reason not to expect double digit victories and perhaps a Big 12 title. We’ll know more right out of the gate, as Iowa St. faces Kansas St. in the only noteworthy game during “Week Zero”.
7 Ohio State
Last Season: 14-2
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Texas, 11/1 vs. Penn St., 11/29 @ Michigan
We’ll know quickly whether or not the defending national champions are up to the task of preserving that title. The Buckeyes had 14 players selected in the NFL Draft, including four in the first round. They’ve had several talented wide receivers thru the years, and sophomore Jeremiah Smith might end up being one of the best. However, when I look at the schedule, the players they lost, and the strength of the Big Ten, I’m not sure Ohio St. can equal last season’s success. As a matter of fact, I am probably overrating them.
One of the most surprising events of the offseason was Vols’ starting QB Nico Iamaleava transferring to UCLA after a disagreement about NIL money. Unfortunately such things are part of our new reality. Anyway, the new QB is Joey Aguilar, who is 24 years old and threw for over 6700 yards & 56 touchdowns in two years at Appalachian St. Tennessee was second in total defense in the SEC a season ago, and if they can maintain that intensity I believe there are some conference powerhouses that feel beatable this year.
5 Penn State
Last Season: 13-3
Key Games: 9/27 vs. Oregon, 11/1 @ Ohio St.
Full disclosure…I do not perceive Drew Allar as a future top tier NFL quarterback. We can revisit that assessment in a few years. Meanwhile, I do believe Allar is a perfectly fine college QB with plenty of experience and two bitter memories to avenge. The Nittany Lions fell short in the Big Ten title game a season ago, then, after receiving an at large bid to the CFP, Allar threw an interception with 30 seconds left in the semifinal game that set up a field goal victory for Notre Dame. Players can either be destroyed by such calamities, or they can grow thru them. I’ll be stunned if Penn St. doesn’t win atleast ten games, with the biggest mountains to climb a revenge game against Oregon in the cozy confines of Happy Valley, and a daunting trip to The Horseshoe against the defending national champions. I don’t even think they need to win both of those games. Win just one and they’ll snag a playoff berth. Of course winning the conference title and receiving a first round bye in the CFP would be the most accommodating path.
4 LSU
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 8/30 @ Clemson, 10/11 vs. South Carolina, 11/8 @ Alabama
My nephew Noah has high hopes for the Bayou Bengals, and I trust his judgment. LSU suffered a brutal three game losing streak late last season that torpedoed all of their hopes. Of course starting out by losing the season opener to a Southern Cal team that’d end up being 7-6 didn’t bode well either. It’s a new day in Baton Rouge though. QB Garrett Nussmeier’s father Doug played the same position for the New Orleans Saints and now serves as their offensive coordinator. Coaches’ kids are just built different, so despite what the sports media will undoubtedly try to sell ad nauseum this autumn, Nussmeier may be the best quarterback in college football and the best pro prospect. LSU lost seven players in the NFL Draft, and their 11th ranked SEC defense needs to improve, but I’ve got a good vibe. The season opener at Clemson is huge, so don’t miss it.
Arch Manning. You’ve probably heard the quarterback’s name mentioned a few thousand times the last couple of years, despite the fact that he hasn’t actually accomplished much. Look, I get it. His grandfather is a quasi-legend. His two uncles are both Super Bowl winning Hall of Famers. The bloodline is epic. But now it’s time to put up or shut up for young Arch. Fortunately he is surrounded by elite talent, despite the Longhorns losing a dozen players in the NFL Draft (it should’ve been 13, but that’s another story). The schedule makers obviously have a sense of humor (or an agenda), because the same Ohio St. Buckeyes that defeated Texas in the CFP semifinals last season will host them in the opener. I do not believe a loss destroys either team, nor do I think a victory preemptively crowns them. However, we can’t deny that it’ll set a tone.
2 Oregon
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 9/27 @ Penn St.
It had to be a crushing blow for the Ducks. In their inaugural Big Ten season they are 13-0 and win the conference title…then get manhandled from the jump by an Ohio St. team they’d beaten a couple of months earlier. I’ll be surprised by anything less than ten wins, with everything riding on a late September visit to Happy Valley. QB Dante Moore leveled up by transferring from UCLA, and he’s just one of many new faces in Eugene. Ten former Ducks went in the NFL Draft, and their was a ton of portal activity, both incoming & outgoing. Like many other programs, it is probably unfair to judge Oregon based on last year because it’s almost a whole new team. That being said, I have faith in head coach Dan Lanning to assemble all the right puzzle pieces and guide them down the right path.
It physically hurts me to do this. I’ve always had a vague disdain for Notre Dame for various reasons and almost always root against them. However, I cannot deny that, despite their stubborn refusal to join a conference that looks much more astute with each passing year and the tediously fawning sports media, the Fighting Irish remain legitimately relevant year after year. Last season they made it all the way to the CFP championship game before a terrible second quarter doomed them to defeat. Not only do I not believe they’ll suffer an inexcusable loss as they did during last year’s regular season (Northern Illinois?? REALLY??), but if Notre Dame gets out of the gate 2-0 then batten down the hatches. Replacing Riley Leonard at QB won’t be easy, but it’s not as if he was Montana or Theismann. RB Jeremiyah Love will be invited to the Heisman ceremony (before losing out to a quarterback). Only six Irish players were selected in the NFL Draft (none of them in the first round), so it feels like there is a real opportunity to be even better than last year. The only question is if they can get over the hump and take that final step to the first Notre Dame championship since 1988. Somehow, in the midst of conference realignment, NIL free agency, ESPN devouring the sports world like Godzilla, and vacuous talking heads fellatiating the SEC and the Big Ten, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have almost become venerable underdogs. How the hell did that happen?!?!??
With the dawn of a new era in college football we’ve decided to forego our traditional Bowl-a-Palooza and incorporate the playoff games into our normal routine. Let’s face it…most of the bowl games have been superfluous for awhile now, and with interim coaches & transfer portal madness it has become nearly impossible to predict them with any degree of legit knowledge. By all means, if ESPN is airing the Cereal Bowl featuring East State vs. Big City Tech at 4pm on a Tuesday afternoon please enjoy it. Sometimes those random matchups are rather delightful. For our purposes here though, we’ll stick with games that have some degree of importance. I must reluctantly admit that last week (1-4) was abysmal for me, which means that I have finally fallen below .500 for the season, while Zach (3-2) has closed the gap to within three games. Buckle up…it’s going to be a wild stretch run.
My Season: 48-51
Zach’s Season: 45-54
Indiana at Notre Dame (-7.5)
Somehow the rankings happened to fall into place just right, making this intra-state battle possible. Funny how that worked out. At any rate, opinions vary on the 11-1 Hoosiers, especially after they were beaten by three TDs in Columbus a few weeks ago. Should they be here instead of Alabama?? I believe that results matter, and teams can only play the opponents on their schedule. The Hoosiers did that and only lost once, so I think they earned their spot. Meanwhile, the 11-1 Fighting Irish probably have a nearly guaranteed playoff berth anytime they win 9+ games, despite not being a member of any conference. Look…any football fan with actual insight into the game will admit that if these teams met a hundred times Notre Dame would win 80% of the time. Having said that, my Marshall Thundering Herd traveled to South Bend and upset Notre Dame a couple of years ago, so anything is possible. This is a Friday night kickoff, and I know the nephews & I will be hurrying home after our family Christmas dinner to watch. I’d be pleasantly surprised by an upset, but wouldn’t bet money on that happening. However, I feel like Indiana is being overlooked & disrespected just a bit. They’ll keep it close. Zach, however, points out that Notre Dame just signed head coach Marcus Freeman to a contract extension, and on the field they’ve crushed every opponent since an inexplicable early season loss to Northern Illinois. He sees Indiana as talented & well coached, but doesn’t feel like they have what it takes to keep pace in this game.
My Pick: Indiana
Zach’s Pick: Notre Dame
SMU at Penn State (-8.5)
Much of what I said about the previous matchup applies to this game as well. The 11-2 Mustangs aren’t receiving much love. A year ago they were playing in the AAC, and now they play in the ACC, which is probably the weakest of the Power 4. If they’d been blown out in the conference title game by Clemson it is likely that Alabama would’ve been handed this spot, but SMU played a hell of a 4th quarter and nearly pulled off a big comeback. Conversely, Penn St.’s playoff berth was never in question, despite losing the Big Ten Championship to Oregon. The 11-2 Nittany Lions are probably a little overrated, but they’ve mowed thru most of their schedule with tremendous success, which cannot be denied. Not to be repetitive, but once again…if these teams played one another a hundred times the home favorites would almost certainly win 80% of those games, but anything can happen in this one instance. I think SMU will be more than competitive for three quarters, but end up losing…by a touchdown. Conversely, Zach isn’t sure SMU belongs here and foresees a comfortable win by the home favorites.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: Penn St.
Clemson at Texas (-11.5)
I am somewhat surprised by the points. Sure, the 11-2 Longhorns quickly acclimated to the SEC and were only defeated by Georgia (twice). It is also true that the 10-3 Tigers aren’t as elite as they were while appearing in six consecutive (four team) CFPs and winning national championships in two of those years. However, a double digit spread feels disrespectful. Texas will probably win, but it won’t be by more than ten points. Zach is a big Dabo Swinney fan and agrees that Clemson will be more competitive than the “experts” believe.
My Pick: Clemson
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5)
Are people overlooking this game?? It’s an 8/9 matchup, so by definition it is expected to be the most competitive in the first round. The 10-2 Buckeyes were considered to be amongst the top teams in the country until being upset by Michigan a few weeks ago, and it seems like that forced everyone to view Ohio St. thru a whole new prism. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Volunteers can look back at a mid-October upset of Alabama as a huge reason why they’re here now. However, that’s all they really have to hang their hat on. Otherwise the schedule was rather prosaic. Georgia beat Tennessee by two touchdowns, and I think that’s the level Ohio St. is on. I’d love to be wrong. Rockytop brings alot of energy to the table. At the end of the day though, I believe the home team gets it done by ten points. To my utter shock & amazement Zach agrees that the Buckeyes are likely unhappy about how they’ve been talked about recently and will use that as motivation to win easily.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Ohio St.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Our only NFL game this week is an NFC East battle, although the division title has been pretty much decided. The 12-2 Eagles have won ten straight and will win the division, but they have their eyes on the NFC’s top seed & first round bye. The 9-5 Commanders are in the driver’s seat for a wildcard berth, but are far from a lock. I really like rookie QB Jayden Daniels and can see big things for him in the future if the front office continues to build a great team. However, sometimes one just has to be patient and wait for your turn, and it’s not Washington’s time right now. Philly is playing on a different level, and anything short of the Super Bowl will be a disappointment. RB Saquon Barkley may be the best free agent acquisition of the past decade, recapturing the magic that made him a 2017 Heisman finalist at Penn St. and reinvigorating a career that stalled over six seasons with the NY Giants. When these teams met in Philadelphia last month the Eagles won by 12, and I expect something similar now. Zach concurs.
We’ve reached Conference Championship Week. Typically that would conclude the college portion of our season except for bowl picks, which have traditionally been a separate deal. However, we’re doing things a little differently this year, so stay tuned. We are taking a break from the NFL this week though, but look forward to getting back to it next week with division races and playoff berths up for grabs down the stretch. These conference title games will determine automatic bids for the expanded CFP, as well as seeding & at large bids. I was a bit hesitant to embrace the new format, believing that expansion from four to six teams was the proper course of action. Occasionally I am wrong and willingly admit it, and the level of interest & intrigued the revamped system has introduced is alot of fun. To be honest, many of the bowl games have been irrelevant fluff for years, and the CFP Playoff really does nothing to diminish that any further.
My Season: 44-41
Zach’s Season: 37-48
C-USA Championship
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4)
I haven’t paid much attention to C-USA since my alma mater bolted a few years ago, but I know the 8-4 Hilltoppers are always competitive, although they haven’t played for the title in a few years. I didn’t realize the Gamecocks had a football team or that the school even existed until former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez was hired in 2022. Fun fact: the school is in Alabama, not Florida. Anyway, in only their second season in the conference Jax St. matched their previous 8-4 record but now find themselves in the championship game. It’s a Friday evening kick on the CBS Sports Network, and I won’t be home to watch. I suppose it could be a good game, but I think the visiting underdogs handle business with a solid win. Zach points out that the two teams met just last weekend, with the Hilltoppers coming out on top in a close game. And while it is difficult to beat a team twice in a season, let alone in back-to-back weeks, he feels like WKU can pull it off or atleast cover the points.
My Pick: Western Kentucky
Zach’s Pick: Western Kentucky
AAC Championship
Tulane (-5.5) at Army
It’s about respect for these two teams. The 9-3 Green Wave are seeking their third consecutive 10+ win season, while 10-1 Army would love to remain ranked in the Top 25 to cap off their most successful season since 2018. Will the Black Knights have momentum going into their traditional battle with Navy next week, or will they get caught looking ahead against a worthy opponent?? I don’t like that it’s even a factor, but that’s the way the schedule worked out, and I think the visiting favorites will score a fairly comfortable victory. Zach is looking forward to the contrast in styles…Army’s ball control triple option ground attack vs. Tulane’s up tempo offense that averages 37+ points & over 400 yards per game. He opines that Army might stand a chance if they control the tempo & dominate time of possession, but at the end of the day Tulane probably has too much firepower.
My Pick: Tulane
Zach’s Pick: Tulane
Mountain West Championship
UNLV at Boise State (-4)
The Mountain West gets a prime time Friday night opportunity to show off and they deserve it. UNLV head coach Barry Odom has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the open position at West Virginia, so I’ve been catching up on the 10-2 Runnin’ Rebels. Meanwhile, 11-1 Boise has been part of the college football zeitgeist for a couple of decades now and has the longest current streak of winning seasons dating back to 1997. The winner of this game has a very good chance of getting into the playoff as the highest ranked Group of Five conference champion. When these teams met in Vegas the week before Halloween the Broncos scored a TD in the 4th quarter to get the win, but I expect a different outcome this time, with an upset that’ll shake up the playoff bracket. Zach respects Boise’s big game experience and doesn’t foresee them fumbling such a huge opportunity. He believes RB Ashton Jeanty, a top Heisman candidate, will make a huge difference.
My Pick: UNLV
Zach’s Pick: Boise St.
Sun Belt Championship
Marshall at Louisiana (-5.5)
Speaking of my alma mater…
The Herd snuck into this game with a double OT victory over James Madison. At 9-3 they’ve already had their best season since 2015 and would love to win their first Sun Belt title since joining the conference a couple years ago. There has been some chatter about the future of head coach Charles Huff, but I don’t believe that will have any effect on this game. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Ragin’ Cajuns have dramatically improved after a couple of tough years. They have the home field and are likely the smart pick, but I’m staying home to watch instead of venturing out for some delightful holiday fun, so Marshall better not disappoint me. Zach views it as Marshall’s ground game vs. Louisiana’s passing attack, and is hopping on the upset train.
My Pick: Marshall
Zach’s Pick: Marshall
MAC Championship (Detroit, MI)
Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (-2.5)
I don’t pay much attention to the MAC anymore. My fascination with mid week “MACtion” was a passing phase. However, this one might be fun. They call it the Battle of the Bricks, a rivalry that dates back to 1908 between the two oldest universities in the state of Ohio. When the 9-3 Bobcats visited the 8-4 RedHawks in mid October the home team got the ten point victory, and I expect more of the same this time. Zach likes Miami because former Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger is an alum, which is as valid of a reason as any.
My Pick: Miami (OH)
Zach’s Pick: Miami (OH)
ACC Championship (Charlotte, NC)
Clemson vs. Southern Methodist (-2.5)
When I think of SMU I immediately recall the celebrated Pony Express backfield featuring future NFL Hall of Fame running back Eric Dickerson in the early 1980s, and of course the program receiving the “death penalty” in 1987 after repeatedly violating NCAA rules. This has been the team’s most successful season since being revived in 2008, and playing for the ACC title in their very first year in the conference is impressive. Conversely, competing for a conference championship is the norm for Clemson. I suppose SMU could still get an at large playoff spot if they lose, but that seems risky, even after winning 11 games. The situation is more clear for the Tigers…they have to secure the automatic bid. It feels strange that SMU is even in this position, and even weirder that they’re the favorites, but I’m fine with that and enjoy seeing things shaken up a bit. Zach understands that the shine has worn off for many when it comes to Dabo Swinney, but he still believes in the coach with two national championships on his resume and thinks Clemson could make some playoff noise.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
Big Ten Championship (Indianapolis, IN)
Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5)
If you’d have told me a few months ago that neither Ohio St. nor defending national champs Michigan would be in the conference title game I wouldn’t have believed it. Kudos to undefeated Oregon, the #1 team in the country, who sits atop the Big Ten in their inaugural season as a member. The 11-1 Nittany Lions aren’t too shabby either, although I feel like they’re somewhat overrated. Penn St.’s defense will really need to step up for them to have a chance, and I think they’ll keep it close for awhile before the favorites pull away late for a fairly comfortable victory. Zach has no faith in Penn St. in big games and predicts a dominant win for the Ducks.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA)
Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5)
Most of us probably expected this matchup even before the season began. Perhaps some thought Alabama could be in the mix, but there were bound to be bumps in the road there with a new coach. At any rate, even at 10-2 the Bulldogs have been somewhat underwhelming, while the 11-1 Longhorns have been exactly as advertised. Their only loss was to Georgia at home in Austin. This is allegedly a neutral site game, but obviously it’s damn close to home for the underdogs. I expect a thrilling, extremely tight battle. Maybe we’ll even get an overtime or two. Both teams are probably heading to the playoff regardless of the outcome, but the winner will get a first round bye, and I think that’ll be Georgia. Conversely, Zach thinks the Bulldogs will come up short in a high scoring shootout.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Texas
Big 12 Championship (Dallas, TX)
Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-2.5)
The 10-2 Cyclones are having their best season since 2020 when they lost the conference title game to Oklahoma. The 10-2 Sun Devils weren’t even in the Big 12 a year ago, but they’ve found a soft landing after the implosion of the Pac 12, and accomplished a dramatic turnaround after going 3-9 each of the past two seasons. It’s a Noon kick on Fox, and I hope it isn’t overlooked by the masses because it could end up being the best game of the weekend. The winner gets an automatic playoff bid, while the loser will probably be left on the outside looking in, which is unfortunate. I believe the outcome will be decided by turnovers & special teams, with the underdogs ultimately prevailing. Zach, on the other hand, not only predicts a dramatic, last minute victory for the Sun Devils, but believes they can mow thru the playoff and win the National Championship. A hot take indeed.
I sure hope this week isn’t as brutal as last, when we were both 2-5. Clearly we don’t know as much about college football as we’d prefer. At any rate, we’ve made it to the conference championship games. Playoff berths will be won & lost, while those left on the outside of that inner circle are jockeying for positions on the bowl game hierarchy. Let’s ride!!
My Season: 49-36
Zach’s Season: 40-45
New Mexico State at Liberty (-10.5)
C-USA Championship Game
The Flames won this matchup comfortably back in September and are coming in unbeaten. Unfortunately they’re a year too early to be included in the expanded playoff. The 10-3 Aggies played an extra game because they traveled to Hawaii. I don’t foresee this game being much different from the regular season meeting. Conversely, Zach likes NM St.’s dual threat QB and thinks it’ll be a close game. He has put Liberty on upset alert.
My Pick: Liberty
Zach’s Pick: New Mexico St.
Oregon (-8.5) vs. Washington
Pac-12 Championship Game (Las Vegas)
I know what I’m doing on Friday night!! Our local Christmas parade is at 6pm, but I should be home in time to fix myself a hot beverage and hunker down in front of the TV for a game with significant impact on the entire landscape. First, it is the final Pac 12 game ever, with practically every team bolting for “greener pastures” next year, which is sad. Secondly, the QB of the winning team…the Huskies’ Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix of the Ducks…will almost certainly become the prohibitive Heisman favorite. However, the biggest consideration here is that the winner will lock in a playoff berth. When these teams did battle in mid-October Washington scored a touchdown with a minute & a half on the clock for a dramatic victory. Since then both teams have kept on winning, but Oregon has looked more impressive. I think they take care of business and Nix wins the Heisman Trophy. Zach, on the other hand, foresees Washington winning with dramatic last minute drive, and believes the Huskies are legit National Championship contenders.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Washington
Miami (OH) vs. Toledo (-8)
MAC Championship Game (Detroit)
I used to love some mid-week MACtion on ESPN, but truthfully I haven’t paid much attention for quite awhile. Since a season opening loss at Illinois the Rockets have reeled off eleven straight victories. The Red Hawks have had a very similar season except for their previous matchup against Toledo, which was a four point loss. Miami’s QB is Brett Gabbert, the younger brother of Blaine Gabbert, who was famously chosen in the first round of the NFL Draft ahead of JJ Watt and has worn more uniforms than a Village People tribute band. Anyway, I think Toledo gets a double digit win. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Toledo
Zach’s Pick: Toledo
Boise State (-3.5) at UNLV
Mountain West Championship Game
This will be the Broncos sixth appearance in the title game in the past seven years. They won two of those games. At 7-5 it’s kind of surprising they’re playing for the championship. Is the Mountain West that mid?? The 9-3 Rebels are playing in their first championship game since joining the conference in 1999, and The Vibes are telling me they’ll hoist the trophy on their home turf. Zach thinks it’ll be a shootout, with the favorites coming out on top.
My Pick: UNLV
Zach’s Pick: Boise St.
Southern Methodist at Tulane (-3.5)
AAC Championship Game
I didn’t give the Green Wave enough respect. Most outlets had them firmly entrenched in the Top 25 coming into the season after they finished 12-2 last year, but I gave that spot to UTSA (who finished this season 8-4). Tulane has duplicated their previous success and come into this contest 11-1. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Mustangs are riding an eight game winning streak. I am old enough to remember the glory days of SMU, with the Pony Express duo of Eric Dickerson & Craig James, followed by the “death penalty”, which shut down the program for a couple of years in the late 1980s and caused them to struggle for two decades. They have had some good seasons in the past ten years, but a conference championship would certainly put a bow on their comeback story. Zach opines that Tulane’s defense is going to need to step up and stop the high octane SMU offense, and he doesn’t think that will happen.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: SMU
Appalachian State at Troy (-7)
Sun Belt Championship Game
When these teams met during the 2022 regular season the Mountaineers came away with a close win. The Trojans have won 10+ for the second consecutive year, while App. St. is 8-4 but have won five games in a row. I smell an upset brewing, so I’m leaning toward the underdogs. Zach thinks it could be the best game of the weekend, and he believes the visitors are a hotter team right now.
My Pick: Appalachian St.
Zach’s Pick: Appalachian St.
Texas (-11.5) vs. Oklahoma State
Big 12 Championship Game (Dallas)
The 9-3 Cowboys find themselves in this spot because they defeated in-state rival Oklahoma a few weeks ago, while the Longhorns lost to the Sooners in October but have beaten everyone else, including Alabama in the season opener, which could be weighed heavily by the playoff committee. Do “style points” factor into the “body of work”?? I think it does matter, which means the Longhorns will be left out in the cold if they don’t cover, even if they win. I would be surprised by an OK St. victory, but not shocked if they keep it close. That being said, I think Texas takes care of business. Zach doesn’t think the Cowboys have anything to lose so they’ll leave everything out on the field. He believes it’ll be competitive for three quarters, but ultimately Texas will pull away late.
My Pick: Texas
Zach’s Pick: Texas
Georgia (-4.5) vs. Alabama
SEC Championship Game (Atlanta)
Depending on which scenario shakes out, one or the other, neither, or both teams could be playoff bound. Could the unbeaten Bulldogs fall short in this game but still get the 4th playoff seed?? Perhaps. Conversely, the Tide almost certainly needs to win, and that season opening loss to Texas has to be important because invalidating head-to-head regular season results would be a bad look. ‘Bama leads the all-time series 42-26-4, but I think the favorites make the CFP Committee’s job a skosh easier with a 7-10 point triumph. Conversely, Zach has always been a huge Nick Saban fan. He has stated all season that Georgia isn’t as good as they’ve been the past few years, and he believes their luck will run out.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Florida State (-5.5) vs. Louisville
ACC Championship Game
It might be the least attractive title game of them all going in, but maybe it’ll be more entertaining than it looks on paper. The undefeated Seminoles aren’t guaranteed a playoff berth even with a win, which is precisely why many thought expanding the field was necessary. The 10-2 Cardinals aren’t playoff contenders even with a victory, but a conference title and a New Year’s bowl game are worthy goals. Thus far Florida St. is doing just fine with a backup QB, so I think they win this game but get left out of the playoff. Zach thinks Florida St. will do just enough to win, and doesn’t see how they could be left out of the playoff in that case.
My Pick: Florida St.
Zach’s Pick: Florida St.
Michigan (-23) vs. Iowa
Big Ten Championship Game (Indianapolis)
I would be absolutely stunned if Iowa wins the game. At 10-2 they’ve certainly had a nice season and will receive a well deserved & lucrative bowl bid, but the unbeaten Wolverines are on another level. A win gets Michigan into the playoff, while a loss might not eliminate them completely, although too many unrealistic dominos would need to fall in that situation. I don’t believe it will be an issue though. The only questions are 1) will there be a hangover from the Ohio St. game, and 2) with bigger fish to fry could they possibly ease up in the second half, winning the game by only 15-20 points?? I’m going with “no” to both. Zach is playing it closer to the vest than me, taking Michigan to win but not to cover the huge spread.
The Manofesto 