Big Ten Conference

2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 7

Ohhhhhh…it’s Friday the 13^th!! Are you scared?? Do you need to be held gently and reassured that everything is going to be alright?? Well, if that’s the case you’ve come to the wrong place. Having said that though, we are feeling a little frisky so y’all are getting some bonus picks this week. As far as last week goes, Zach was an impressive 4-1, while I didn’t do so well with a 2-3 record.

My Season: 19-15

Z’s Season: 19-14

TCU (-4.5) at Kansas State
The Horned Frogs got a little help from the zebras while defeating my WV Mountaineers last weekend, so they come into this game 5-0 and hovering on the fringes of playoff contention. The Wildcats were getting some pre-season love but limp into this game at 3-2 after a double overtime loss to Texas. I never really bought into the hype anyway, and for that I am gad. From what I’ve seen…referees be damned…TCU is the real deal. I don’t expect them to get into the playoff, but I do think they’ll win this game easily. Zach agrees.

My Pick: TCU

Z’s Pick: TCU

Auburn (-6.5) at LSU

What a roller coaster ride it’s been in Baton Rouge. A week after a shocking loss to Troy the Bayou Bengals got to 3-2 by upsetting Florida in The Swamp, so the questions about head coach Ed Orgeron’s job security are quelled…for now. Conversely, Auburn has gotten to 5-1 relatively unscathed…only a loss to defending national champion Clemson stains their record, and there’s no shame in that. So which LSU team will show up…the team that lost to the clearly inferior Troy, or the team that went into one of the most hostile environments in college football and scored a victory?? I’m going to assume it’ll be someplace in the middle, and that’s probably not going to be enough to win this one. Zach thinks it might be close, but Auburn will do just enough to cover.

My Pick: Auburn

Z’s Pick: Auburn

Northwestern (-3) at Maryland

I still sometimes forget that Maryland is in the Big Ten. The Terps come into this game 3-2 and appear to be a really inconsistent team. Northwestern is 2-3 and has also been inconsistent. If this game were taking place in Evanston, IL I might be tempted to pick the Wildcats, but since Maryland has the home field advantage it seems like a pretty clear choice to me, though the oddsmakers disagree for some reason. Zach doesn’t believe in Maryland at all and is siding with the folks in Vegas.

My Pick: Maryland

Z’s Pick: Northwestern

Ohio State (-24) at Nebraska

The Buckeyes’ record stands at 5-1, with the only mark against them being a loss to Oklahoma, which is nothing for which they should hang their heads. Looking at the polls, one can see a definite pathway for Ohio St. to sneak back into the playoff picture. In my pre-season poll I opined “It is unlikely that any team gets thru their season unbeaten, and it’s entirely possible that a team with 2 or 3 losses sneaks into the playoff”. In retrospect that “2 or 3 losses” part might have been a bit overzealous, but certainly a couple of one loss teams could be in the four team field. The problem Ohio St. has is that there are about eight teams ahead of them right now, although atleast three of them will lose a game due to playing each other. At any rate, the present mountain to climb is the Cornhuskers, who are currently a rather mediocre 3-3. Could Nebraska pull the upset at home?? Sure. Will they?? I don’t know. Either way, the points give one pause. Because our total games are uneven since Zach forgot to pick a game a few weeks ago I’m going to let him fly solo on this one to catch up. He has an irrational disdain for Ohio St. and is picking the upset.

My Pick: n/a

Z’s Pick: Nebraska

Oklahoma (-7.5) vs. Texas

I still call this the Red River Shootout because I’m politically incorrect and get amusement out of ruffling feathers. Will this game be worthy of its moniker? The 4-1 Sooners are probably still stunned that Iowa St. beat them last week, but I wasn’t that surprised. Because of lack of respect for the Big 12 they are most likely out of the playoff conversation unless a lot of dominoes fall just right , but that doesn’t matter when it comes to this game. The Longhorns have shown signs of life, though a mediocre 3-2 record might not fully indicate that. Let us not forget that they lost a heartbreaker in double overtime at USC a few weeks back. This is a neutral site game being played at the old Cotton Bowl in Dallas, which is just shy of 200 miles away from both Austin, TX & Norman, OK. This series has remained fairly even thru the years, with each team occasionally winning 4 or 5 in a row only to see the other come back and do the same thing, so it is a somewhat unpredictable game. Essentially one either has to believe that Oklahoma is down and that last week’s loss was a harbinger of doom, or that the loss was merely an unlucky hiccup that’ll just have them fired up. Most seem to be on the same page with Texas…they’re headed in the right direction but probably aren’t where they need to be quite yet. Having said all of that, I like Texas to keep it very close, and if they lose it’ll be by less than a touchdown. Zach also likes the Longhorns and believes they’ll win outright.

My Pick: Texas

Z’s Pick: Texas

Miami at Atlanta (-11)

People may have forgotten that the Falcons were in the Super Bowl back in February. Sure they blew a huge lead and choked on the big stage…but they were there. They had picked up right where they left off until a couple of weeks ago then were upended by the surprising Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins are 2-2, which is right about where most expected them to be. Atlanta has the home field in their shiny new stadium, but the question is whether or not they can cover a double digit spread. I think they can, unless the entire Dolphins team snorts blow during pre-game warm-ups. Zach is picking Atlanta to roll to an easy victory.

My Pick: Atlanta

Z’s Pick: Atlanta

Chicago at Baltimore (-6.5)

This should be called the Gun Control Bowl. They definitely cannot take a page out of the Oklahoma-Texas playbook…people in these two cities might have an actual shootout. At any rate, the 1-4 Bears got their only win a few weeks back over my Pittsburgh Steelers, and are already giving up on QB Mike Glennon. Enter rookie signal caller Mitch Trubisky, who has demonstrated some talent in limited playing time. This opportunity comes a little sooner for him than most expected, but it’s a smart move in my opinion. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 3-2, which sadly is good enough to have them tied atop the AFC North. Baltimore is getting a really generous home field advantage, but I’m not buying it. I watched Trubisky a little bit in the pre-season and it was immediately evident to me that the young man has…it. I don’t know if he’ll be able to spin that talent into anything tangible, and I’m not sure if a great team will ever be assembled around him, but I think he’ll flash that potential for all to see and get his first win. Zach likes Trubisky well enough but thinks that right now Baltimore is the better team.

My Pick: Chicago

Z’s Pick: Baltimore

Tampa Bay (-2.5) at Arizona

It is telling that the Bucs are favored by the oddsmakers despite being on the road, especially since they are a rather pedestrian 2-2. That would lead me to believe that the 2-3 Cardinals are even worse than the record indicates. I do know that Arizona was desperate enough to trade for RB Adrian Peterson, which would’ve been a brilliant move…four years ago. Now?? I can’t imagine he has much left in the tank. Who knows though…maybe he can flip a switch ;-). The Vibes are telling me that this won’t be very close or competitive, that the favorites will win handily. Zach likes Peterson to have a big game with his new team, but believes Tampa will cruise to an easy win.

My Pick: Tampa Bay

Z’s Pick: Tampa Bay

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-5)

This is the Monday night game, but the folks at ESPN have to be a little disappointed. No Andrew Luck. Marcus Mariota might be out as well. Both teams are 2-3 and trail Jacksonville…yes, Jacksonville…in the AFC South. In my season preview I had Tennessee with 11 wins and they still might get there, but it’s going to be tough. I had Indy going 7-9 WITH a healthy starting quarterback, so without him they are…well…out of Luck. Anyway, if Mariota plays the Titans should win easily, but even if he doesn’t I think they’ll grind out a low scoring, tedious victory and cover the points. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Tennessee

Z’s Pick: Tennessee

2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 1

We’re baaaaaaccccckkkk. I sincerely hope The Manoverse considers that a good thing, although I know there are those that don’t particularly enjoy sports related topics. Be patient. Y’all know that The Manofesto is a cornucopia where we discuss all kinds of stuff, and I will do my best to not focus solely on football for the next five months. This will be my 6^th season making these picks, while my nephew Zach joins me for the fifth time. I finished 2016 with a record of 54-49 (a 52% winning percentage), while Zach struggled a bit and finished at 38-65 (37%). As always Week 1 is all about college football since the NFL hasn’t began its season just yet. Fortunately, because of the College Football Playoff, teams are bulking up their schedules with better early season non-conference games, and we fans are the beneficiaries. There are a couple of monster matchups on the opening weekend, so it wasn’t difficult to choose which games to pick. Let me remind you that Zach & I do not have any money riding on these games and I do not encourage gambling, but if that is an activity that frosts your cupcake and you have the disposable income while still paying your bills & feeding your family then go right ahead and do what you enjoy. Just don’t put too much stock in what you read here…we’re not very good at this.

BYU vs. LSU (-12.5)

Hurricane Harvey has forced this “neutral site” game, originally to be played in Houston, TX, to the New Orleans Superdome, meaning that it’s not so neutral anymore. I don’t think it makes much of a difference though. The Cougars are coming off of a solid 8-4 season and have already played a game last weekend, beating 1-AA Portland St. in unimpressive fashion. Equaling 2016’s record might be the best BYU can aspire to. The Bayou Bengals also finished last year at 8-4 in a season in which they fired their longtime head coach. RB Leonard Fournette has moved on to the NFL, which isn’t necessarily disastrous for LSU because honestly, he rarely lived up to the hype in my opinion. They probably aren’t winning their conference or even their division, but the boys from Baton Rouge shouldn’t have any problems winning this game. Zach thinks it’ll be a blowout.

My Pick: LSU

Z’s Pick: LSU

California at North Carolina (-12.5)

I’d have to do research to know for sure (and that ain’t happening), but it seems like a rare occurrence that the Pac 12 and ACC meet up during the regular season. The Golden Bears were an atrocious 5-7 last year, while the Tar Heels were 8-5. QB Mitch Trubisky & WR Ryan Switzer have both left Chapel Hill behind for the NFL, and that concerns me a little, especially for the first game of the season. I’m not bold enough to predict an outright upset, but the points feel like a bit much to me. Zach doesn’t foresee a blowout, but believes Carolina will win by a comfortable enough margin.

My Pick: California

Z’s Pick: UNC

Texas A&M at UCLA (-3)

After losing starting QB Josh Rosen to a shoulder injury in 2016 the Bruins nosedived to a 4-8 record, but Rosen is back and I expect him to be a first round NFL Draft pick next spring. The Aggies started off strong last season but struggled in the second half, limping to an 8-5 finish. They are without the services of defensive end Myles Garrett, who was chosen #1 overall by the Cleveland Browns. UCLA gets just a slight home field bump from the oddsmakers, but I don’t believe it’ll be that close. Zach likes A&M well enough but can’t overlook the home field advantage.

My Pick: UCLA

Z’s Pick: UCLA

Michigan (-5) vs. Florida

Michigan might be getting more love and national title hype if a) they didn’t have to replace ¾ of last season’s starters, and b) they didn’t play in the same conference as Ohio St. & Penn St. I expect a slight dropoff for the Wolverines from last year’s 10-3 record, though I still consider them a Top 25 team. Florida plays in the SEC, which might not be as good as in year’s past, but it’s still a pretty tough road. The Gators were 9-4 in 2016 and would probably be more than satisfied to equal that mark this season. This is a neutral site game being played at The Palace in Dallas, which atleast will make it fun to watch on TV. I think the oddsmakers have nailed this one. It’ll be competitive, but Michigan will win by a touchdown. Zach is a huge Michigan fan, but is shocking the world by predicting an upset.

My Pick: Michigan

Z’s Pick: Florida

Florida State vs. Alabama (-7.5)

Wow, what a huge game on the opening weekend!! Kudos to both teams. Alabama has won four national championships since 2010 and lost last season’s title game to Clemson on a touchdown pass in the final seconds. The Seminoles haven’t won a national title since 2013 but are always in the conversation. The winner of this game will emerge as the undisputed #1 team in the land, although the loser will still have a decent chance to make the playoff. It’s another neutral site game, this time emanating from the brand spankin’ new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This is a battle of wits between Nick Saban and Jimbo Fisher. I am expecting a low scoring, smashmouth defensive struggle, with a couple of big plays making the difference. I’m not brave enough to predict the outright upset, but I do think the game will be decided by less than a touchdown. Zach loves Saban and thinks the Tide will roll by two TDs.

My Pick: Florida St.

Z’s Pick: Alabama

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 14

The latest meeting of the minds in college football produced a Top 4 of Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, & Washington. This weekend’s schedule features all of the conference title games, and it will be fascinating to see how it all shakes out. Theoretically if all of the previously mentioned teams win everything stays the same. But wait…we already have a fly in the ointment with Ohio St. not even playing in the Big Ten championship game!! No big deal though, as the Buckeyes look like they are solidly in the playoff. It actually works out in their favor that their one loss occurred way back in October and they won’t have an opportunity to lose now. Alabama is in the playoff too. It doesn’t even matter if they lose the SEC championship (they won’t). So the drama lies with Washington & Clemson. If either of them lose then there are 3 or 4 teams in the mix to jump into the playoff debate, depending of course on the outcome of some other contests. Buckle up fans…it’s going to be a great weekend. Oh, speaking of great weekends, both Zach & I did well last time out. He was 4-3, while I was 6-1 because Ohio St. won but didn’t cover.

My Season: 40-38

Z’s Season: 30-48

Colorado vs. Washington (-7.5)

The Pac 12 title game takes place in Santa Clara, CA and kicks off the weekend festivities on Friday night. This might turn out to be the best battle of them all. The Huskies are in a precarious position. They need to win, but it’d help their playoff cause if they would do so in impressive fashion. I’d love to pick the upset…but I just can’t go there. I wish I could. Conversely, Zach has no problem picking the upset, although he has ulterior motives.

My Pick: Washington

Z’s Pick: Colorado

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma (-11.5)

The Big 12 doesn’t officially begin having a conference championship game until next year, but since expansion isn’t happening and future title games will feature the top two teams in the conference this really is basically the same thing. The Sooners have the home field and have been playing well since some early season struggles. A win won’t get them in the playoff, but it’ll get them a warm bowl destination in January. Zach likes the Sooners chances of winning the game, but he doesn’t believe they’ll cover the points.

My Pick: Oklahoma

Z’s Pick: Oklahoma St.

Alabama (-24) vs. Florida

The only drama in the SEC title game is whether or not the Tide will roll enough to cover the substantial point spread. The game takes place in Atlanta so there is no home field advantage for either team. Typically I am rather uncomfortable with 3TD+ spreads, but I’m going to throw caution to the wind just this once. Zach is a bit more conservative. He thinks ‘Bama will win, but it’ll be a little closer than 24 points.

My Pick: Alabama

Z’s Pick: Florida

Clemson (-10) vs. Virginia Tech

The ACC championship game takes place in Orlando, FL, which again means no home field advantage for either team. The Hokies have been inconsistent and haven’t really beaten anybody significant. The Tigers have spent the season on the brink, with too close for comfort victories over Auburn, Troy, Louisville, NC St., Pitt, & Florida St. I’m rooting for a little chaos in this playoff situation, and it feels like this may be the only opportunity for that to occur. It’s probably not the wise choice, but what the hell…let’s have some fun. Zach is once again playing it smart, picking Clemson to win easily.

My Pick: Virginia Tech

Z’s Pick: Clemson

Wisconsin (-2) vs. Penn State

The winner of this game has the most to gain if another playoff contender slips up. The committee isn’t going to put both Ohio St. and Michigan in the playoff while leaving out the Big Ten Champion. Or would they?? Both of these teams did lose to the Wolverines. I look forward to a fascinating argument wherein the inherent flaws of this playoff system are exposed and subsequent changes are made. Zach likes the Badgers’ defense to get the job done.

My Pick: Wisconsin

Z’s Pick: Wisconsin

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 13

Happy Thanksgiving Manoverse!! Not only do we get to enjoy tasty vittles like turkey, stuffing, yams, & pumpkin pie today, but we get a heaping helping of football during this long holiday weekend. It’s Rivalry Week in college football, so that’s what we are focusing on. Sadly, because of conference realignment, several old rivalries have gone by the wayside…Nebraska vs. Oklahoma, The Backyard Brawl (WVU vs. Pitt), The Border War (Missouri vs. Kansas). However, many remain and this year some of them actually mean something beyond bragging rights. Speaking of which, neither Zach nor myself can brag about last week’s picks, which resulted in me going 3-2 and him trailing at 2-3. I’m still befuddled by what has happened to the Green Bay Packers. At any rate, enjoy food, family, & football, and may God bless each & every one of y’all.

My Season: 34-37

Z’s Season: 26-45

LSU (-5) at Texas A&M

Another rivalry that has disappeared from the schedule is Texas vs. Texas A&M, which not only was played annually from 1915-2011, but was a centerpiece of the plot for the 1982 classic musical comedy film The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas. However, I suppose that LSU is an acceptable substitute opponent for the Aggies. The Bayou Bengals are 6-4 in the midst of a roller coaster season, while A&M has fallen to 8-3 after getting thru the first six weeks of the season unscathed. Losing quarterback Trevor Knight to a shoulder injury hasn’t helped. I’d love to pick the upset because A&M does have the home field advantage, but I just don’t have much faith in their backup QB. Zach concurs.

My Pick: LSU

Z’s Pick: LSU

Washington (-6) at Washington St.

The Huskies are still technically on the outside looking in at the playoff, but for reasons that we’ll get to soon they have to feel pretty confident about their chances of ultimately sneaking in. Winning this game in impressive fashion would certainly help. The 8-3 Cougars aren’t going to be an easy out on their home field, but given what’s at stake I’d be shocked to see Washington stumble. Zach isn’t sold on Washington’s playoff resume, but agrees they should win this game.

My Pick: Washington

Z’s Pick: Washington

Auburn at Alabama (-17)

I wish I could get excited about The Iron Bowl. It has produced some lasting memories over the years. However, ‘Bama has been so dominant this season that I just can’t fathom them losing this game on their home field. Not only that, but I’d be surprised if it is even close. Zach is an optimist, and though he doesn’t believe there will be an outright upset, he thinks it’ll actually be a watchable & competitive game. To be honest I hope he’s right.

My Pick: Alabama

Z’s Pick: Auburn

Michigan St. at Penn St. (-13)

The Nittany Lions have clawed their way back to relevance after…issues…that we shall not revisit. Due to upsetting Ohio St. about a month ago Penn St. would actually sneak into the Big Ten title game with a victory. Meanwhile, the Spartans have had a terrible year. There’s really nothing else one can say. I’d be very surprised if Penn St. blows this opportunity, especially in the cozy confines of Happy Valley. Once again Zach isn’t predicting an upset but he’s a bit uncomfortable with the points.

My Pick: Penn St.

Z’s Pick: Michigan St.

Utah at Colorado (-10.5)

Many people may have missed the fact that Colorado moved to the Pac 12 back in 2011. Now they have an opportunity to play in the conference title game (against the winner of Washington/Washington St.), but they must win this game or else they lose a tiebreaker against USC, who defeated the Buffaloes back in early October. Meanwhile, the Utes come into this game with nothing to gain or lose except pride & bowl position after a stunning loss to 4-7 Oregon last week. A few things are in play here. First of all, I’m not comfortable with the spread. Secondly, I think it is entirely possible that one team in this game is overrated while the other is underrated. I’ll leave it up to the reader to decide which is which. Also, though I’m NOT a conspiracy theorist let’s face it…who would the powers-that-be rather have in the Pac 12 title game…Colorado or USC?? I think that answer is obvious. And finally, Utah’s loss last week isn’t a good think…for Colorado. Do they want to end their season with two losses?? I don’t think so. We’re on the same wavelength here, as Zach IS predicting the upset in this one.

My Pick: Utah

Z’s Pick: Utah

Florida at Florida St. (-6.5)

The Gators have already secured their spot in the SEC title game, where they will be beaten handily by Alabama. Conversely, the Seminoles aren’t getting anywhere near the ACC title game unless they buy tickets. However, of all these rivalry games this one is near the top of the list as far as records or even the home field being almost meaningless. I feel a disturbance in The Force here. One team has already achieved their goal, the other has nothing to lose. Zach likes the Gators’ defense to get the job done.

My Pick: Florida St.

Z’s Pick: Florida

Michigan at Ohio St. (-6.5)

It’s nice to have this game matter once again. Really cool. Now stick with me here…this might get confusing. If the Wolverines win they will play in the conference title game against either Nebraska or Wisconsin (Wisconsin holds that tiebreaker). If Ohio St. wins and Penn St. wins then neither the Wolverines nor the Buckeyes make it to the title game…it’ll be Penn St. vs. Nebraska or Wisconsin. If Ohio St. wins this game but Penn St. loses it’ll be the Buckeyes facing off against Nebraska or Wisconsin. And oh…by the way…all of these teams are still in the conversation for the playoff regardless of what happens here, although one would have to believe that the loser will be out of luck. I’ve said all along that Harbaugh was ahead of schedule, that I didn’t expect him to have Michigan in the national championship picture quite yet. This game is being played in Columbus, which is huge. I love the fact that they are sticking to the traditional noon kickoff despite it being undeniably the biggest game of the week and an obvious choice for the prime time spotlight. It’s the little things, right?? Predictably Zach is picking his favorite team. Heck, even Stevie Wonder could’ve seen that coming.

My Pick: Ohio State

Z’s Pick: Michigan

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 10

Sorry folks…running behind so this is going to be quick & dirty. Lots going on in my world. I’m not used to so much activity. Last week I was 6-3, while Zach was 3-6. More than most weeks in recent memory we had several games decided by the point spread…teams winning but not covering. That’s exactly why we have that added layer of strategery. It makes things that much more interesting. The college football schedule is kind of prosaic this week, so we’re leaning a little more on the NFL. I try my best not to be repetitive by choosing games involving the same teams every week, although it is undeniable that some teams are just more interesting and play better opponents than others.

My Season: 28-27

Z’s Season: 19-37

Alabama (-7.5) at LSU

Zach & I both agree that the Tide are on another level. Actually they have almost become boring since they tend to bulldoze opposing teams with the outcome never really in doubt. I don’t anticipate anything different even with this game being in Baton Rouge. I wouldn’t mind being wrong.

My Pick: Alabama

Z’s Pick: Alabama

Nebraska at Ohio St. (-17.5)

This is another point spread situation. I don’t think the Buckeyes lose at The Horseshoe. However, as Penn St. proved, Ohio St. isn’t infallible. Nebraska is coming off of a tough overtime loss, but they still have a lot to fight for, including a spot in the Big Ten (which has 14 teams) title game. At the very least I expect a spirited effort from the Cornhuskers and a fairly close game. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Nebraska

Z’s Pick: Nebraska

NY Jets at Miami (-3.5)

Neither team has any chance whatsoever to overtake New England in the AFC East, and the playoffs are a pipe dream. Both teams would be lucky to finish with a winning record. But somehow Jets/Dolphins games always seem to be exciting & fun to watch, going all the way back to my childhood. I’m going to roll the dice on an upset just for the hell of it. Conversely, Zach likes the Dolphins’ rushing attack, which is actually better without recently retired Arian Foster.

My Pick: NY Jets

Z’s Pick: Miami

New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco

Neither of these teams are going to the playoffs either. The Saints have a chance to finish around the .500 mark, but with Atlanta running away with their division that’s just not good enough. The Niners are probably in the conversation for the #1 overall pick in next year’s draft, a choice one would assume they’d use on a quarterback. ‘Frisco doesn’t even get the respect of the obligatory home field bump from the oddsmakers…probably because they don’t deserve it. Zach has concerns about N’awleans’ inconsistency, but even less faith that ‘Frisco can field a competent professional football team.

My Pick: New Orleans

Z’s Pick: New Orleans

Denver at Oakland (-1)

QB Derek Carr has the Raiders riding high, topping their division deep into the season for the first time in several years. But the Broncos are right there with them. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, and it’s a big one for both teams, with the winner sitting in the post-season driver’s seat and the loser in a wildcard spot and facing a possible playoff game at New England. I like the Broncos’ defense, but I think Carr figures out a way to keep it close to set up a Sebastian Janikowski game winning field goal. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Oakland

Z’s Pick: Oakland

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 9

It wasn’t my intention to do bonus picks again so soon, but both the college & NFL schedules are chockful of intriguing matchups and I just can’t resist. Last week was a rough one for yours truly, as I could only muster a record of 1-4, while Zach fared a little better at 2-3. Obviously neither of us have a bright future in the prognostication arts, but we’ll have fun trying.

My Season: 22-24

Z’s Season: 16-31

California at USC (-15.5)

The Bears come into this game 4-3, but it must be noted that two of those losses were by 5 points or less, and they’ve split the last two games in overtime. Meanwhile, the Trojans have an identical 4-3 record but are riding a three game winning streak. This is a Thursday night contest, and while it is a home game for Southern Cal the 2 TD+ spread seems a bit much. I think it’ll be closer and Zach agrees.

My Pick: California

Z’s Pick: California

Michigan (-24) at Michigan St.

A year ago the Spartans escaped with a thrilling last second victory after a touchdown on a fumbled punt. But that team was undefeated and would go on to play in the national playoff semifinal. In 2016 the tables have been turned. The Wolverines are undefeated and ranked #2 in the country while State has lost five straight to stand at 2-5. I am not quite sure what has happened in East Lansing outside of the normal ebb & flow of players graduating & new ones stepping up take those spots, but obviously things have taken a bad turn. Conversely, Jim Harbaugh has coached his alma mater back to relevancy much quicker than I anticipated, although few are really shocked that they have been successful. I’d be surprised if the favorites lost, but I’d be almost as surprised if Sparty didn’t show some pride in defending their home field. Zach is a big Michigan fan but he agrees.

My Pick: Michigan St.

Z’s Pick: Michigan St.

Baylor (-3) at Texas

I thought that it’d be Baylor having a rough year given their…eventful…offseason, while Texas would show some life with Charlie Strong’s job on the line. However the opposite has happened thus far. The Bears are 6-0 and have barely been tested. The Longhorns are 3-4 and probably already have a list of candidates to replace Strong. I’d LOVE to pick the upset…but I just can’t pull the trigger, even with the game being played in Austin. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Baylor

Z’s Pick: Baylor

Washington (-10) at Utah

The Huskies are a very quiet 7-0, ranked 4^th in the polls, & look like a solid playoff team unless they stumble down the stretch. Could that misstep come against the 7-1 Utes in Salt Lake City?? I think it is possible. At the very least I am uncomfortable with a double digit point spread. Zach has no issues with the spread. He thinks it’ll be close for three quarters but Washington will take over in the end.

My Pick: Utah

Z’s Pick: Washington

Nebraska at Wisconsin (-8.5)

This is the prime time game on ESPN Saturday night. The Huskers have rather quietly amassed a perfect 7-0 record, while the Badgers have lost twice…to Michigan & Ohio St….nothing to be ashamed about. Wisconsin gets the home field bump, which is understandable. But are the points too much?? I think they might be. Zach thinks Nebraska is overrated and he likes Wisconsin’s defense.

My Pick: Nebraska

Z’s Pick: Wisconsin

Clemson (-4.5) at Florida St.

Before the season began this game looked like it could decide a playoff spot. Unfortunately the Seminoles have dropped a couple of games and are unlikely to re-enter the playoff conversation. However the Tigers, despite a few close shaves, remain undefeated and very much in the playoff hunt. As much as I’d love to stick with my pre-season choice and pick Clemson The Vibes are reminding me that this game is in Tallahassee, that Florida St. is still a very good team, & that Clemson has been on the cusp of losing a couple of times and their luck can’t run on forever. Zach believes the Seminoles will put up a good fight but Clemson will be too much in the 4^th quarter.

My Pick: Florida St.

Z’s Pick: Clemson

Kansas City (-2.5) at Indianapolis

The Chiefs were one of my pre-season Super Bowl picks, but thus far they are an underwhelming 4-2 and trailing both the Raiders & Broncos in the AFC West. The Colts aren’t much better. At 3-4 they still have a chance to win their division as I predicted only because the Texans aren’t very good. It is interesting that Indy is a home underdog. If the folks in Vegas aren’t going to respect them why should I?? Zach likes the Chiefs to outcoach the opponent and snag a victory.

My Pick: Kansas City

Z’s Pick: Kansas City

Oakland at Tampa Bay (-1.5)

The Raiders have been fairly impressive in what seems to be the culmination of a decade long rebuild, leading their division at 5-2. The Bucs have been…alright. They are 3-3 and occasionally show flashes of…something. Whatever it is they aren’t there yet and Oakland is ahead of their progress by a country mile. Zach notes that Tampa has suffered some key injuries and thinks the Raiders will be a playoff team.

My Pick: Oakland

Z’s Pick: Oakland

Arizona at Carolina (-2.5)

Many pundits thought the Cards were a Super Bowl favorite this season, but so far they’ve looked rather mediocre. The Panthers have been even worse, following in the footsteps of other Super Bowl losers of the past by stinking up the joint the following year. I have no idea what the problem is, but it is irrefutable that a problem exists. Carolina is probably already out of playoff contention, but Arizona can still recover and win their division. This looks like a tossup on paper, but I’m gonna go with the visiting underdogs. Zach agrees. He likes the Cardinals’ defense to lead them to victory.

My Pick: Arizona

Z’s Pick: Arizona

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

The mediocrity continues. Zach & I both went 2-3 last week. He correctly predicted Louisville’s destruction of Florida St., an outcome I still can’t wrap my mind around, while the Buckeyes of Ohio St. didn’t let me down. I’m stunned that the L.A. Rams actually won and that Minnesota somehow beat Green Bay in the first game in the Vikings new stadium. The NFL season is difficult to figure out just yet, but we have seen injuries take their toll and some young stars begin to emerge. Half of the teams in my pre-season college Top 10 have already lost a game. If I were getting paid to do this I’d have a lot of explaining to do, but thankfully we’re just having some fun.

My Season: 8-9

Z’s Season: 6-11

Florida at Tennessee (-6.5)

The Volunteers are very quietly hovering just outside the Top 10 with a 3-0 record and victories over…well…nobody in particular, unless you want to give them kudos for beating Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway a couple of weeks ago. The Gators are also 3-0, in the Top 20, and haven’t really played anyone, but their defense has only allowed 14 points thru three games, and that’s impressive no matter what kind of cupcakes a team has beaten up on. Having said that, we cannot overlook the fact that their starting QB is injured. The good thing is that Florida’s backup signal caller is a graduate transfer who started 11 games in four seasons at Purdue, so that is atleast better than some 18 year old freshman being thrown into his first taste of bigtime college football in front of 100k fans on the road. Did you know that Florida has won this matchup 11 straight times?? Can they make it 12?? Ehhhhh…I don’t think so. Tennessee quarterback Josh Dobbs is a real talent who will be playing on Sundays in the not-so-distant future, and I think he is the difference. This will be a close one, but I think Tennessee covers the points. Conversely, Zach isn’t sold on Tennessee…at all. He thinks the Gators will win easily.

My Pick: Tennessee

Z’s Pick: Florida

Stanford (-3) at UCLA

The talking heads are really pushing Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey as a leading Heisman contender and I have no reason to argue. In two games McCaffrey, a hybrid RB/WR, has over 400 total yards and four TDs, and both victories were against solid competition. Stanford doesn’t blow the doors off of anything, but they get the job done. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 2-1 after the season opening overtime loss to Texas A&M. UCLA doesn’t even get the respect of a home field advantage, and I think that might be a mistake. For no reason in particular I’m going to venture out on a limb and predict the upset. Afterall, with my record what do I have to lose, right?? Zach is riding the Heisman hype and thinks Stanford will win by a touchdown.

My Pick: UCLA

Z’s Pick: Stanford

Penn St. at Michigan (-19)

I chose this game simply because of the challenging point spread. I have no doubt that the Wolverines will win, especially in The Big House. They have cruised to a 3-0 record and are probably glad to get into the conference schedule. The Nittany Lions are still alternately worshiping and fighting against the ghost of Joe Paterno, which atleast gives the talking heads something to yap about, but on the field they are 2-1, with a close loss to in-state rival Pitt balanced out by a close win over in-state rival Temple. I’m going to roll the dice again by predicting that Michigan will win but it’ll be a little closer than the folks in Vegas seem to think. Probably something along the lines of 42-24. Surprisingly Zach concurs.

My Pick: Penn St.

Z’s Pick: Penn St.

Arkansas at Texas A&M (-6)

I feel like the Razorbacks are a team that gets lost in the shuffle amongst the glitz & glamor of the SEC. I suppose that’s understandable given that they haven’t even sniffed ten wins since 2011. However thus far they are 3-0, including a triple OT win over highly regarded TCU. The Aggies are also 3-0, with solid victories over UCLA & Auburn. I must be in a gambling mood because I’m leaning toward another upset. I think this might come down to a last second field goal or something similar, meaning it’s possible that A&M could win the game but not cover the points. Zach thinks A&M is…scrappy. However he too is picking the upset.

My Pick: Arkansas

Z’s Pick: Arkansas

Houston (-2.5) at New England

This is really interesting. It isn’t often that you see the Patriots as underdogs at home. However Lil Tommy is still on Fidel Goodell imposed home confinement for tampering with his balls, and things got worse when backup Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulder was injured last weekend. So now third string QB Jacoby Brissett, a rookie from NC State chosen in the 3^rd round of the NFL Draft, steps up to the plate (I love me some mixed metaphors). The talking heads don’t seem to be all that concerned about the situation, which is confusing to me. Either Tom Brady is the best quarterback that’s ever graced a gridiron, or Bill Belichick is a mastermind with the combined coaching prowess of Vince Lombardi, Knute Rockne, & Mr. Miyagi who could lead the Patriots to the Super Bowl with the love child of Uncle Rico & Jamarcus Russell behind center…you can’t have it both ways. I tend to lean toward the latter since I think there are atleast a dozen legendary quarterbacks better than Brady, but there’s no denying that New England can never be counted out. If they were playing Cleveland or the Rams or Miami this week I’d probably be persuaded toward the Pats despite the QB situation. However, the 2-0 Texans have looked pretty darn good so far and have emerged as the clear favorites in the AFC South. The point spread is almost nothing, and I think Houston covers easily. Zach likes Houston’s defense, but like so many others he trusts Belichick’s particular brand of magic (which oftentimes looks an awful lot like cheating in my opinion).

My Pick: Houston

Z’s Pick: New England

2015 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 7

You may recall that last week all five of our picks came from college games. That means that by Saturday night the results were in and by Sunday afternoon I had a good idea about what games seemed interesting on this week’s schedule. By Tuesday both Zach & I had made our picks. Which begs the question…why are you only now reading this in the early hours of Friday morning?? Well…to be honest…I’ve just been that lazy. I’ve had some other things going on and been distracted with other interests. I was tempted to take a bye week, but ultimately decided to power thru and save that for another time when my lethargic procrastination is a result of legitimately imperative reasons. At any rate, last week Zach was 2-3, while I was 3-2. A few games could have gone either way and were decided by a point or two. We did learn a few things in the process. Both Michigan & Utah are for real, although the Utes couldn’t cover the spread. Indiana…as I expected…didn’t have much left in the tank. Cal QB Jared Goff might have the measurables, but he’s not going to put a team on his back & carry them to victory…yet. And the jury is still out on Northwestern. So for the season our records look like this:

Me = 21-12 Z = 15-18

Out of curiosity I looked back at this time last year to compare where we stood then versus now. A year ago I was 15-18, while Zach was 16-16. Thus far in 2015 I seem to be doing a skosh better, while Zach is slightly behind last season’s pace. But hey…we’re not even halfway done yet, so we’ll see how it all shakes out. We’re only picking 4 games this week because one of the games I chose was UCLA vs. Stanford. Since it’s a Thursday night game that’s already started as I write this I think it’d be unfair to include it. That’s my fault. Oops.

Alabama (-4) at Texas A&M
Reports of ‘Bama’s demise were greatly exaggerated, as they have rebounded just fine from an early loss to Ole Miss. They’re riding a three game winning streak and are right back on the fringes of the playoff conversation. The Aggies have flown under the radar thus far but are quietly undefeated and a Top 10 team. If they win this game all the sudden they are in the national title hunt. It’s really interesting that the Tide comes into this one as a road favorite. I guess a lot have people jumped back on the bandwagon pretty quick, huh?? I’ll go with that flow and Zach concurs.

My Pick – Alabama
Z’s Pick – Alabama

Michigan St. at Michigan (-8.5)
Like I said, the Wolverines look like they are legit. I’m not shocked that Harbaugh has his alma mater back in contention, but I didn’t think they’d be this good this fast. Three straight shutouts?? That’s damn impressive. Can they do it again?? Ehhhhh. I know the game is in Ann Arbor. I know it’s a rivalry game. But the Spartans are undefeated and could break into the Top 5 with a victory. Either way it goes I think 8 ½ is just too many points. Zach disagrees. He loves the Wolverines and thinks they’ll win by two TDs.

My Pick – Michigan St.
Z’s Pick – Michigan

Florida at LSU (-7.5)
This game might have been a lot more interesting if the Gators’ QB hadn’t just been suspended for PED use. From what I understand the kid wasn’t on the juice like Barry Bonds or anything, he just inadvertently took an over-the-counter medication that is on the NCAA’s Naughty List. Whatever the case, the fact is that he’s not going to be on the field this weekend, which makes it a pretty easy pick. Zach concurs.

My Pick – LSU
Z’s Pick – LSU

New England (-7.5) at Indianapolis
The lone NFL game amongst this week’s picks would have been way cooler if this were 2006 and Peyton Manning was still the Colts’ QB, or if current Colts’ QB Andrew Luck was healthy. Unfortunately though it looks like Indianapolis will likely be starting 34 year old Matt Hasselbeck under center. On top of that, it seems like the freakin’ Patriots are angry at everyone else because THEY cheated. Sadly that motivational technique is working quite well thus far, as New England has been mowing thru everybody on their schedule like Jason Voorhees at summer camp. Will this week be any different?? If Hasselbeck starts probably not. But what if Luck returns?? It’s a long shot, but I’m going to pray that Luck plays and it’s much closer than 7 ½ points. Zach is a little more pragmatic (as usual) and thinks the Pats will win easily.

My Pick – Indianapolis
Z’s Pick – New England

2015 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 5

Last week I swung for the fences…with mixed results. Both Zach & I went 5-3. I absolutely nailed the wacky Texas Tech/TCU finish, and The Vibes guided me correctly in a very close Colts/Titans game. Zach wisely picked the Utes of Utah, who mauled a shockingly inept Oregon squad, and also took the Green Bay Packers. I suppose the KC Chiefs aren’t as good as I thought they were. So far in 2015 the numbers look like this:

Me = 16-7 Z = 11-12

The schedule is a bit tricky this week. There are a handful of potentially good games, but I really try to have variety in these picks. I don’t want to focus on the same few teams every week. That’s difficult in college football because the cream tends to rise to the top and it is tempting to gravitate toward matchups featuring the same highly ranked teams over & over. It’s even harder with the NFL, which has only 32 teams and fans tend to lose interest in those that we can already see are going to be terrible, which narrows the pool even more. The point spread shouldn’t play a significant role in any of these games, but then again I could have said the same thing last week and I ended up winning two games in which the points did matter. Enjoy.

Minnesota at Northwestern (-3.5)
It seems like every few years Northwestern pops up with a solid season in which they take up residence in the polls and end up landing in a nice bowl location. I always know when it’s that kind of year for the Wildcats since one of their biggest fans is my man Greeny from ESPN’s Mike & Mike in the Morning, a 1989 graduate of the school. Minnesota was a consistent Top 25 team last year and are off to a pretty decent start this season, with the only blemish being a close loss to highly ranked TCU in the season opener. I am far from an expert on either of these teams, but I would assume we can expect characteristic hard-hitting Big Ten football, a low scoring affair dominated by defense. There may be some concern about Northwestern looking past this game and ahead to next week’s battle with Michigan, but I’d actually be more worried about that if they were playing a lesser opponent. They won’t overlook Minnesota, and I think the home team wins by a touchdown. Zach disagrees and is picking Minnesota to win by a field goal.

My Pick – Northwestern
Z’s Pick – Minnesota

Alabama at Georgia (-2)
This is the first game since 2009 in which Alabama has been the underdog. Wow. That’s impressive. The reason folks are doubting them is a surprising loss to Ole Miss a couple of weeks ago. They also don’t seem to have a QB that impresses anyone, which is an issue. Conversely, the Bulldogs are undefeated and just keep handing the rock to RB Nick Chubb, who is averaging nearly 150 yds/game. This is a must win for ‘Bama if they hope to make it to the playoff. Two losses would kill that dream. We’ll know a lot more about these two teams when this one is over. Is the uncertainty about the Tide valid?? Are the Bulldogs for real?? The question I have is whether or not Georgia has a Plan B if the Alabama defense stuffs Chubb. I don’t think he’s getting 150 yards this week. He may not get 100. Can they chuck the ball downfield and get the job done thru the air?? I’ll believe it if I see it. Alabama with their backs against the wall is dangerous. Zach is putting his mancrush on Nick Saban on the backburner, choosing Georgia to win by two TDs.

My Pick – Alabama
Z’s Pick – Georgia

–

Notre Dame at Clemson (-1.5)
The talking heads have been bragging on Clemson since before the season began, many of them predicting that the Tigers would win the ACC. Meanwhile I have been much higher on Notre Dame than most. My enthusiasm has been tempered just a bit because of all the injuries the Irish have suffered, but they’re 4-0 without the benefit of as easy of a schedule as most have played thus far. This will be Clemson’s first real test and they do have the home field. The winner of this game will be nicely positioned for a playoff run, although it is far too early to really think in those terms. It may not be the wise choice, but I’m pretty stubborn about sticking with my pre-season vibes until I am proven wrong, so I have to lean toward the underdogs. Zach believes that Clemson is the real deal, and isn’t buying the luck of the Irish.

My Pick – Notre Dame
Z’s Pick – Clemson

NY Jets (-1.5) vs Miami
It’s early, but it is entirely possible that I may have completely misjudged both of these teams. I thought Miami would be solid and in the hunt for a wildcard playoff spot, but they’ve gotten off to a 1-2 start. People are criticizing the non-impact of free agent defensive end Ndamukong Suh and there are whispers that Joe Philbin could be the first head coach in the unemployment line this season. Conversely, the Jets have already secured the 2 victories that I predicted they’d get for the entire season and the reviews have been much more positive than most expected. This game is in London, England which means that those of us on the east coast will have to watch it at 9:30am, and I can’t imagine that there’ll be anyone out west getting up at 6:30 on a Sunday morning for it. The NFL really needs to rethink this London thing. Anyway, I’m just not buying the good vibes coming out of New York and I still believe the Dolphins are the better team. Zach does buy what the Jets are selling and thinks they’ll win the game easily.

My Pick – Miami
Z’s Pick – NY Jets

St. Louis at Arizona (-6.5)
The Cardinals just might be the best non-cheating franchise in the NFL at the moment. If QB Carson Palmer can remain healthy (a huge IF) they could be a legitimate challenger to Seattle for the division title. Meanwhile, the Rams occasionally show potential but something just seems to be missing. Whatever that something may be is unlikely to suddenly show up in the desert this week. Zach concurs.

My Pick – Arizona
Z’s Pick – Arizona

2015 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

A year ago I was so excited about the inaugural four team college football playoff. That enthusiasm was eventually mitigated just a bit. Though, at the end of the day, I admit that the teams selected were deserving, the process itself was severely flawed. It has become clear that the Division 1 FBS level of college football needs to be further subdivided into two tiers, each with its own championship. As it stands now, only half of the FBS teams have a realistic path to the playoff. At any rate, that is a debate for another time. For now let’s just be happy that football is back and there will finally be something worthwhile to vegg out for on the weekend.

1 Ohio State
Last Season: 14-1
Key Games: 11/21 vs. Michigan St., 11/28 at Michigan, 12/5 Big Ten Championship Game
I was WAY wrong in my assessment of the Buckeyes last pre-season. I, like many others, assumed that losing their starting QB was a death blow. Now…a year later…they return three starting caliber QBs. It looks like Braxton Miller might move to receiver, JT Barrett will be the starter, & Cardale Jones will be forced to be patient and probably delay his NFL aspirations another year. Or not. Who knows?? I’m not at all worried about suspensions for the first game against Virginia Tech, and I’d be surprised if they didn’t get to 10-0 pretty easily before a tough two games to end the regular season.

2 Southern Cal
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/19 vs. Stanford, 9/26 at Arizona St., 10/17 at Notre Dame, 11/7 vs. Arizona, 11/21 at Oregon, 11/28 vs. UCLA
The Trojans are still recovering from NCAA sanctions and may have some depth issues that make this prediction a bit of a reach. However, they return practically their entire starting roster on both offense & defense, including senior QB Cody Kessler. The schedule is brutal, so we’ll have a good indication by the beginning of October whether or not this team is for real, but even then November is absolutely vicious. It’s going to be feast or famine with Southern Cal in 2015, and I’ll walk away a fool or a king.

3 Notre Dame
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 10/3 at Clemson, 10/17 vs. USC, 11/28 at Stanford
Count me among those that feel The Irish need to eventually be not-so-gently persuaded to join a conference. They’re kind of playing footsie with the ACC, but aren’t all in by any means. On the other hand, until they are forced I understand why they aren’t making the move of their own volition. Why should they?? Being independent certainly isn’t hurting their schedule or national title hopes. They should blow right thru most opponents, although 2 of the 3 key games listed above are on the road. It would seem almost impossible for both Notre Dame & USC to make the playoff after one defeats (and presumably eliminates) the other on October 17. That’s going to be a huge game.

4 Alabama
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 10/3 at Georgia, 10/17 at Texas A&M, 11/7 vs. LSU, 11/28 at Auburn
The inaugural playoff proved that SEC teams aren’t just going to enjoy a cakewalk to the Final Four. After having seen the process and how everything played out I now understand that any conference…including the SEC…getting two teams into the playoff is almost impossible. That being said, the SEC champion will undoubtedly be in the mix and there’s no reason not to think the Crimson Tide won’t be right in the thick of the battle. I don’t expect the season opener…a neutral site game against Wisconsin at the Palace in Dallas…to be a problem, and I don’t think the two Mississippi teams will be serious threats this year. 3 of the 4 key games I’ve noted are on the road, which may pose a bit of a challenge.

5 Michigan State
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 9/12 at Oregon, 10/17 at Michigan, 11/7 at Nebraska, 11/21 at Ohio St.
It seems like the Spartans are forever playing the bridesmaid role…always good, but never quite good enough. Until they are able to jump over the Ohio St. obstacle that will continue to be the case.

6 Baylor
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 11/14 vs. Oklahoma, 11/27 at TCU
Big 12 fans aren’t going to like this, but the fact is that until the league expands and adds a championship game the likelihood of the conference’s top team being left out of the playoff remains high. The Bears’ non-conference slate of SMU, Lamar, & Rice is completely prosaic & unimpressive, which will hurt their playoff chances even if they go undefeated. The conference itself, while fun to watch, doesn’t get the level of respect given to the SEC, Big Ten, or Pac 12, and that is probably going to remain the case as long as Oklahoma & Texas aren’t dominant programs.

7 TCU
Last Season: 12-1
Key Games: 11/21 at Oklahoma, 11/27 vs. Baylor
Remember what I said about Baylor?? Ditto, although I should point out that the non-conference opener at Minnesota is respectable. All one needs to know about how the Big 12 is viewed by those that matter is that the Baylor-TCU game on November 27th…a de facto conference championship game…is being played on a Friday night. Sure it is Black Friday and people should theoretically be home vegging out in front of the TV after a long day of shopping, but important college football games are NOT played on Fridays.

8 Florida State
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 10/24 at Georgia Tech, 11/7 at Clemson
As much as I dislike Jameis Winston I have to admit he was a winning college QB that oftentimes carried his team to victories they otherwise wouldn’t have gotten. But now he is gone, off to wreak havoc in the NFL (whether it’ll be on the field or off is to be determined). Obviously Florida St. is the kind of team that reloads quickly and doesn’t suffer all that much from such personnel losses, but I’d be surprised if they were in the national title mix again. They’ll do well in their conference because the ACC is always relatively weak, but it won’t be enough to get back to the Final Four. I just have this feeling that they’ll stumble unexpectedly atleast once.

9 LSU
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/19 vs. Auburn, 11/7 at Alabama, 11/28 at Texas A&M
Every game is a tough one in the SEC, and every team has the potential to be a top flight national contender if they perform well in that conference. 2014 was a bit of a down year for the Bayou Bengals, but my vibes are telling me this will be a bounce back season. They’ll need to win one or two big games…probably atleast one on the road.

10 Georgia
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 10/3 vs. Alabama, 10/10 at Tennessee, 11/14 at Auburn, 11/28 at Georgia Tech
I’m really hesitant to put three SEC teams in the Top 10, but I will for two reasons. First of all, if any conference can pull it off it’s the SEC. Secondly, I suppose I’m hedging my bets just a bit. RB Todd Gurley has moved on to the NFL’s St. Louis Rams, but one must remember that he didn’t play all that much last year due to a suspension and then a season ending knee injury. Freshman tailback Nick Chubb was thrown into the mix out of necessity and rushed for over 1500 yards, including a 200+ yard game against Arkansas and a 266 yard effort in the Belk Bowl. The bigger loss may be WR Chris Conley…now with the Kansas City Chiefs…who accounted for over 1300 receiving yards and a dozen touchdowns in 2014. Anyway, when a team has a stud like Chubb the game plan is pretty simple…ride that horse all the way to the finish line. It’s not complicated.

11 Oregon
Last Season: 13-2
Key Games: 9/12 at Michigan St., 10/29 at Arizona St., 11/14 at Stanford, 11/21 vs. USC
First of all, the Pac 12 has suddenly become a brutally competitive conference. Secondly, a team usually doesn’t replace a Heisman winning signal caller like Marcus Mariota without a hiccup or two. It’s not that I think the Ducks won’t be good…I just don’t think they’ll be in the playoff discussion. They have a huge game against Southern Cal in Eugene near the end of the season, but before they get to that point they will have to win a couple of battles on the road.

12 Clemson
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 10/3 vs. Notre Dame, 11/7 vs. Florida St.
I’m not quite ready to choose Clemson over Florida St. in the ACC…but there are some rumblings amongst the masses. A non-conference (kind of) clash against The Fighting Irish in South Bend will be a good indicator of where the Tigers stand, and then they have the Seminoles at home. An upset in that game could catapult Clemson into the Top 10.

13 Oklahoma
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/12 at Tennessee, 11/14 at Baylor, 11/21 vs. TCU
After reeling off four consecutive 10+ win seasons 2014 was a bit of a down year for the Sooners. I expect them to rebound slightly this season. A lot depends on the outcome of a quarterback battle between incumbent Trevor Knight and a transfer from Texas Tech that is apparently impressing a lot of people. They’ll need to upset either Baylor or TCU to climb this far in the rankings.

14 Arizona
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: 9/26 vs. UCLA, 11/7 at USC
To those who may be curious…yes, I still detest Rich Fraudriguez, but I’ll be darned if he doesn’t have a pretty entertaining ball club in Tucson. Last year they upset Oregon with a late 4th quarter touchdown, defeated Utah with a last second field goal, & were a failed 2 point conversion away from tying USC. RB Nick Wilson rushed for nearly 1300 yards in his freshman season and should be even better this year, while the defense is led by junior linebacker Scooby Wright (one of the best names in college football). I expect to be up into the wee hours of the morning on several Saturday nights this fall watching the Wildcats, and I think they’re going to win most of those games.

15 Texas A&M
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/5 vs. Arizona St., 10/17 vs. Alabama, 11/7 vs. Auburn, 11/25 at LSU
I will never understand exactly why the Aggies joined the SEC. I mean yeah, I get the money & the prestige, but the fact is they are an afterthought clawing for every ounce of respect & attention. If they would have remained in the Big 12 not only would that conference be deeper but A&M would be amongst the best teams and have a clearer path to the national championship. Nevertheless, they are still a solid team that has a few very big games at home. Opening the season against legitimate competition like Arizona St. is admirable. It’ll be interesting to see whether or not it is a wise idea.

16 UCLA
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/26 at Arizona, 10/15 at Stanford, 11/28 at USC
Quarterback Brett Hundley is gone, off to the Green Bay Packers to do Aaron Rodgers’ laundry and test his food for poison like people did for kings in The Dark Ages. It is for that reason that I don’t think the Bruins will get to double digit victories in 2015. Some of their biggest games are on the road, so that’ll be tough as well. However, I don’t think 8 or 9 wins and a Top 20 finish are impossible.

17 Northern Illinois
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/19 at Ohio St., 9/26 at Boston College
The talking heads tend to focus on the “Power 5” conferences and the competition to get into the four team playoff, and I will grant that those are the storylines the uninformed masses likely prefer. However, there are ten conferences and the champions of those “other” 5 oftentimes sneak into the rankings and occasionally surprise people with big wins in bowl games. The Huskies have been in that mix on more than one occasion, and until someone comes along and takes the crown they have to be the favorites in the MAC. Two out-of-conference games will define Northern Illinois’ season. I don’t expect them to beat Ohio St., but if they can keep it respectable…say within two TDs…it’ll be an important moral victory. The following week they’ll need to go into Chestnut Hill and defeat the Eagles.

18 Boise State
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 9/4 vs. Washington, 9/12 at BYU, 11/20 vs. Air Force
Yep, they’re still here. The Broncos have settled into a comfort zone. They beat up on an inferior conference, rack up a bunch of wins, seem to have a spot in the lower end of the Top 25 reserved for them, & occasionally upset the apple cart with a win against a theoretically better opponent in a big bowl game. That formula won’t get them into the playoff discussion, but maybe…for now…they are happy where they are until the next round of conference upheaval.

19 Memphis
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/24 vs. Cincinnati, 10/17 vs. Ole Miss
The old Big East morphed into the American Athletic Conference a few years ago, but the AAC is about as similar to the Big East as McDonald’s is to healthy food. Yet somebody’s got to win it, and the Tigers are my pick. It should be noted that the AAC has expanded with the addition of Navy and will have a conference title game for the first time in 2015. That’s cool, although I’m not sure that there is any conceivable matchup that’ll draw much interest. I’m predicting a Memphis-East Carolina championship game, with Memphis going on to compete in something yawn inducing like the St. Petersburg Bowl.

20 Fresno State
Last Season: 6-8
Key Games: 9/12 at Ole Miss, 10/24 at Air Force, 11/21 at BYU
I’ve always enjoyed watching Fresno’s ball games. They play an entertaining, up tempo, high scoring brand of football and have been sporadically successful over the years. The question is always how many points will their defense give up since many of their opponents tend to have similarly high powered offenses. I think this will be an “up” year for the Bulldogs, although to be successful they’ll need to win some tough games on the road, and to finish in the rankings will almost have to make it to the Mountain West title game.

21 Air Force
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/19 at Michigan St., 10/24 vs. Fresno St., 11/20 at Boise St.
Okay okay…I’m hedging my bets again. There’s probably no way that three Mountain West teams finish in the Top 25, even if it’s the latter portion. Having said that, winning 8 or 9 games and upsetting one of the above mentioned key opponents would provide a tremendous boost to the Falcons’ chances. It’s not hard to prepare for their offensive attack…opponents know they’re going to run, run, run. But opponents still seem to have a difficult time stopping what they know is coming, as the Air Force rushing attack ranked 7th nationally in 2014 and they won ten games.

22 Georgia Tech
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/19 at Notre Dame, 10/10 at Clemson, 10/24 vs. Florida St., 11/28 vs. Georgia
Someone has to get beaten by Florida St. in the ACC championship, and I’m predicting it’ll be the Yellowjackets…again. A September battle in South Bend looms large and could be the crucial point of the season. Tech is probably going to have to score a couple of huge upsets to sneak into the rankings, and I think they can do it.

23 Wisconsin
Last Season: 11/3
Key Games: 9/5 vs. Alabama, 10/10 at Nebraska
Replacing an All-World RB like Melvin Gordon is nearly impossible, but Wisconsin has had its fair share of really good tailbacks so it could happen. However, I do think we’ll see a decline in production. When one looks at the Badgers’ schedule it becomes clear that a Top 25 ranking would be quite the accomplishment. The season opener against Alabama is a neutral site game in Dallas, but after that Wisconsin could conceivably reel off 9 or 10 wins. An October battle in Lincoln, NE will decide who gets throttled by Ohio St. in the Big Ten (which has 14 teams) title game.

24 Texas
Last Season: 6-7
Key Games: 9/5 at Notre Dame, 10/3 at TCU, 10/10 vs. Oklahoma, 12/5 at Baylor
The Longhorns haven’t had double digit wins since 2009. Will this be the season they get back their mojo?? Maybe…maybe not. I do think they will vastly improve over 2014’s losing record. Head coach Charlie Strong is entering his second year at the helm and I think he’ll get Texas back to its winning ways eventually, although more mediocrity will have the spoiled fanbase calling for his head, so who knows if he’ll be given a fair shake. The easy way to solve the problem is to win 8 or 9 games this year and atleast be in the Big 12 (which has ten teams) title conversation.

25 Michigan
Last Season: 5-7
Key Games: 10/17 vs. Michigan St., 11/28 vs. Ohio St.
Rome wasn’t built in a day, but I think new Wolverines’ head coach Jim Harbaugh will begin rebuilding the program with a solid inaugural season in the captain’s chair. I believe they’ll be legitimate Big Ten & national championship contenders within three years. For now though, an 8 win season, getting back to a bowl game, & ending the season ranked for the first time in a few years will thrill the folks in Ann Arbor.

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