2019 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 2

The best-laid plans of mice and men often go awry. – Robert Burns

 

I know what you’re thinking…”Week 2?? What happened to Week 1??”.  Well, your humble Potentate of Profundity made a slight miscalculation. We did actually make picks, but due to a new work schedule (well new since last football season anyway) for myself and a busier than usual weekend I just didn’t get anything written & posted. In years past I could hammer out something quick on Saturday morning before kickoff if necessary, but that’s not the case anymore and last weekend it just messed up the whole deal. At any rate, in life one must learn to occasionally adapt on the fly, so that’s what we’re doing. Zach & I made picks on the following games a week ago: South Carolina/North Carolina, Northwestern/Stanford, Boise St./Florida St., USC/Fresno St., & Oregon/Auburn. Zach went 1-4, while I fared slightly better at 2-3 (thank you Southern Cal for not covering the points). Not exactly the beginning either of us hoped for, but we’ll just move on. The NFL begins their season this week, so to celebrate that and to make up for my previous error it seems like a fine idea to do some bonus picks. Enjoy.

Sam’s Season:   2-3

Zach’s Season:  1-4

 

 

 

 

 

Syracuse           at                Maryland (-2)

So I guess…after almost two decades of futility (with occasional sprinkles of mediocrity)…the Orange is allegedly competitive again. To be fair, they did post a 10-3 record last season and easily handled my WV Mountaineers in a bowl game in which the WVU coaching staff clearly phoned it in. The Terrapins beat the snot out of some junior high team last week, but does that really tell us anything?? I’m not ready to buy into Syracuse being “back” quite yet, but neither do I believe Maryland should be favored…even at home…based on one dominating performance against clearly inferior competition. Where does that leave us?? Well, hopefully with a fairly entertaining game. Zach believes Maryland’s hot start is legit and will continue.

My Pick:     Syracuse

Z’s Pick:     Maryland

 

 

 

LSU (-6)               at                Texas

Neither team was challenged a week ago, but we’ll see what they’re really made of now. If this game was in Baton Rouge the pick would be easy, but at home I think the Longhorns might have a legit shot to win. Texas has a kicker named Cameron Dicker…Dicker the Kicker, which I find entertaining in a juvenile sort of way. My vision is a last second game winning field goal in which Dicker just can’t get the ball where he needs to and falls a bit short. It’s okay. It’s common. It happens to every kicker. It’s no big deal. But atleast in that scenario Texas would cover the points. Zach thinks Texas might be a bit overrated, but also feels like LSU often fails to win big games. He’s calling for the outright upset.

My Pick:     Texas

Z’s Pick:     Texas

 

 

 

Stanford             at                USC (-1)

The Trojans won a tough battle with Fresno St. a week ago, while Stanford beat Northwestern. This game is essentially a pick ‘em, which means the folks in Vegas seem to agree that USC’s abysmal 2018 was a blip on the radar. They have a chance to make a statement by defending their home field and getting a leg up in the Pac 12, and I believe that’s exactly what will happen. Zach likes Stanford’s defense, especially considering USC lost starting quarterback JT Daniels to a torn ACL and will now be led by a freshman QB.

My Pick:     Southern Cal

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

 

Texas A&M                  at                Clemson (-18)

I’m really looking forward to this game. Fortunately it’s a 3:30pm kickoff, which fits into my day perfectly. A&M has a brutal schedule, and they’ll deserve respect for even becoming bowl eligible. However, I think they’ll do better than that and pull off a couple of upsets this season. Will that happen this week?? Well…no. Clemson is a well-oiled machine whose spot in the playoff is virtually guaranteed. Having said that, I’m a little taken aback by the points. I’m not sure if it indicates just how awesome the Tigers are, or possibly a lack of respect for the Aggies, which in my humble opinion would be a mistake. I don’t believe Clemson will lose, and the game might not be particularly close, but The Vibes are telling me it’ll be a 14-17 point victory. Zach likes Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence & RB Travis Etienne, but feels like A&M is also an improving team. Like me, he thinks the points are just too much.

My Pick:     Texas A&M

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

Kansas City (-3)                    at                Jacksonville

The oddsmakers have the Chiefs as one of the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl, and I don’t disagree. There is no question that QB Patrick Mahomes will lead the offense to some big numbers, so if KC’s defense evolves into something they could become almost unstoppable. The Jags usually have a solid defense, but they’ve been lacking where it counts most…behind center. Will QB Nick Foles change that?? Will he continue to be the quarterback that led the Philadelphia Eagles to a Lombardi trophy a couple of years ago?? Or faced with the task of being the unquestioned starter for an entire season will Foles be exposed as the journeyman backup many always thought him to be?? Those questions will be answered in due time, but in this specific contest I don’t believe Jacksonville has the firepower to keep up or a defense elite enough to stop the Chiefs offense. Zach doesn’t think Mahomes will put up MVP numbers like he did a year ago, but winning this game won’t be an issue.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

 

 

 

Indianapolis                at                LA Chargers (-6)

It’s been just another quiet, uneventful summer in Indianapolis. Well, except for the bombshell retirement of QB Andrew Luck before he even turns 30 years of age. Not to be outdone, the Chargers have been dealing with their own drama in the form of running back Melvin Gordon’s holdout. This game would probably be a lot more interesting with Luck & Gordon both playing, but their absence creates a sense of mystery & intrigue. The Colts’ coaching staff & front office can talk up new quarterback Jacoby Brissett all they want, but he’s got to prove it to me first. I’m rooting for the guy because wide receiver TY Hilton and RB Marlon Mack are integral pieces of my fantasy teams, but the reality is that it’s a huge change. The Chargers might have a bit of a dropoff without Gordon, but I think they’re equipped to weather the storm. Zach believes the Chargers are overrated, but Luck’s abrupt departure has doomed Indy’s season.

My Pick:     LA Chargers

Z’s Pick:     LA Chargers

 

 

 

NY Giants                       at                Dallas (-7)

I’m going to offer an opinion that some may find odd. I believe the Cowboys would have been better off had RB Zeke Elliott’s holdout lasted a few more weeks. I think Dallas will have a nice season and contend for a playoff spot, but in the end they’ll fall short like they always do. It might have been nice for Zeke to have fresher legs going into the last few games of the season. However, in regard to this game I don’t think any of that matters and the Cowboys will handle business easily. Zach concurs, predicting a three TD victory for the favorites.

My Pick:     Dallas

Z’s Pick:     Dallas

 

 

Houston                       at                New Orleans (-7)

This will be the earlier of two games on Monday night, and it should be really fun. My fondness for Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson is well-documented, and the team has made several moves in recent weeks that could prove to be helpful. The RB tandem of Duke Johnson & Carlos Hyde could be sneaky good, and JJ Watt will lead a stellar defense. The problem is that Houston is taking on my Super Bowl favorites in The Big Easy. A loss won’t destroy either team’s season, and I believe both will get into the playoffs. The home field is enough for me to go with the Saints, and Zach agrees, opining that New Orleans will be playing with a chip on their shoulder after being erroneously knocked out of a trip to the Super Bowl last season.

My Pick:     New Orleans

Z’s Pick:     New Orleans

2019 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

First things first…I am indeed aware that the college football season begins tonight when the Miami Hurricanes visit the Florida Gators. I usually get these rankings published earlier in August, but…well, that didn’t happen. You’re not interested in my excuses and I’m not really into making any, so we’ll just go with the flow. I don’t think the Canes’ nor the Gators will factor significantly into how things play out, so it’s all good. We know that out of 130 FBS football teams only 65 “power” conference teams (including “independent” Notre Dame) have any shot at the national title, and this season it feels like it’s a ten team race at best. As a fan I am still entertained by watching games, but I have to admit that the foregone conclusion that the playoff has become sort of harshes my football buzz. I need underdogs. I need upsets. I need some semblance of parity. I need a little variety from year to year. One of the charms of college football has always been that each season players graduate and new players come in, which means that every year is different…except nowadays its seems like nothing much changes. There have always been dominant programs, but there were still cycles wherein some teams would rise for a couple of years while others fell off a bit. That yin & yang was part of the fun. I hope that happens this season. I hope a team or two that everyone expects to win a lot of games unexpectedly loses a few. I hope a few teams that no one sees coming win 10+ games and challenge for conference titles. I hope…but I won’t hold my breath. Still, it’s nice to have football back.

 

 

 

25        Virginia Tech

Last Season:     6-7

Key Games:     10/5 @Miami, 11/2 @Notre Dame, 11/23 vs. Pitt

This season will go one of two ways for the Hokies. Either they’ll have another miserable losing season and head coach Justin Fuentes will be on the hot seat…or they’ll rebound with 8 or 9 wins and have a legit shot to win a conference title in a rather weak ACC. Obviously I lean toward the latter scenario.

 

 

24        Auburn

Last Season:     8-5

Key Games:     8/31 vs. Oregon, 9/21 @Texas A&M, 11/16 vs. Georgia, 11/30 vs. Alabama

Here’s the thing about the SEC. Atleast half the conference is going to get some attention from the talking heads early in the season because…well, that’s just how it is. Heck, I have five SEC teams in these rankings, and that’s me being conservative. But logic dictates that only a couple of those teams will really be elite. The rest will either fall flat & have disappointing seasons or fall short a few times and end up with a solid 8 or 9 win season. I think the Tigers will land in the latter category. The season opener against Oregon should be a good barometer of what we can expect.

 

 

23        Michigan State

Last Season:     7-6

Key Games:     9/14 vs. Arizona St., 10/5 @Ohio St., 10/12 @Wisconsin, 10/26 vs. Penn St., 11/16 @Michigan

Trips to Columbus & Ann Arbor don’t bode well for the Spartans Big Ten title hopes, but I believe they’ll rebound from a subpar 2018 and win nine games.

 

 

22        Central Florida

Last Season:     12-1

Key Games:     9/14 vs. Stanford, 9/21 @Pitt

The Knights hadn’t lost a game in two years until they ran into the LSU Tigers in the Fiesta Bowl. Do I expect more of the same this year?? Maybe. Out-of-conference games against Stanford & Pitt are important and could make a huge difference. It’s probably too much to ask UCF to go undefeated again, but I think a ten win season deserves some respect.

 

 

21        Army

Last Season:     11-2

Key Games:     9/7 @Michigan, 12/14 vs. Navy

Very few football fans pay attention to the Black Knights until the very end of the season when the Army-Navy Game has the spotlight all to itself, but Army has gone 21-5 in the past two years, which is quite impressive. I don’t think they’ll go into Ann Arbor and pull off an upset, but I don’t believe another ten win season is far-fetched.

 

 

20        Northwestern

Last Season:             9-5                             

Key Games:              8/31 @Stanford, 9/21 vs. Michigan St., 9/28 @Wisconsin, 10/5 @Nebraska, 10/18 vs. Ohio St., 10/26 vs. Iowa

Perhaps it’s the purple uniforms, or maybe it’s the fact that they were perennial underdogs when I was growing up but ten win seasons have now become fairly normal in Evanston. It might be the tenacity of former linebacker & current head coach Pat Fitzgerald. For some reason I have a soft spot for the Wildcats. This prediction could be an epic disaster since they’ve got to travel to Palo Alto to begin the season and also have road trips to Madison & Lincoln. However, if Northwestern can gut out a few upsets and win eight games I may be onto something.

 

 

19        Fresno State

Last Season:     12-2

Key Games:     8/31 @USC, 9/7 @Minnesota, 10/26 vs. Colorado St.

I’m a bit sad because my work schedule has changed yet again and I have to be in bed super early on Friday & Saturday nights so I can get up at 5am. That means that for the first time in many years I won’t get to watch hardly any late night west coast games. The Pac 12 gets all of the attention, but don’t forget about the Mountain West. It has become standard for Boise St. to get the infinitesimal amount of love left over for the MWC, but I believe the Bulldogs will emerge as the better team this year.

 

 

18        Michigan

Last Season:     10-3

Key Games:     9/21 @Wisconsin, 10/5 vs. Iowa, 10/19 @Penn St., 10/26 vs. Notre Dame, 11/16 vs. Michigan St., 11/0 vs. Ohio St.

Are patience wearing thin where Jim Harbaugh is concerned?? Possibly, but I still think he’ll ditch Michigan before Michigan cans him…and neither scenario may ever happen. This isn’t the early 20th century anymore…everyone outside of the state of Alabama understands how difficult it is to win a national championship and knows it isn’t the only barometer for success. Harbaugh has won ten games in 3 out of 4 seasons leading the maize & Blue, which is pretty darn good. The one thing he has to do to quell any sort of rebellion: beat Ohio St. Now is the time. This is the year. The Wolverines could lose 3 or 4 other games and it won’t matter if they defeat the Buckeyes in The Big House in November.

 

 

17        Arizona State

Last Season:     7-6

Key Games:     9/14 @Michigan St., 10/19 @Utah, 11/9 vs. USC, 11/23 vs. Oregon

I’m a big fan of Sun Devils’ head coach Herm Edwards. He might be a better talking head than head coach, but I saw some flashes a year ago that leads me to believe that this is a team that could pull off a couple of upsets and sneak into the rankings.

 

 

16        Texas A&M

Last Season:     9-4

Key Games:     9/7@Clemson, 9/21 vs. Auburn, 10/12 vs. Alabama, 11/23 @Georgia, 11/30 @LSU

No team has more chances to affect the National Championship picture than the Aggies. All five key games noted above involve potential playoff contenders, so A&M has a unique opportunity to be the ultimate spoiler…or be embarrassingly inept. Entering Year 2 of the Jimbo Fisher era I believe they’ll continue to build a solid foundation that will eventually lead to playoff appearances in the near future.

 

 

15        Stanford

Last Season:     9-4

Key Games:     9/21 vs. Oregon, 10/5 vs. Washington, 11/16 @Washington St., 11/30 vs. Notre Dame

The Pac 12 is stacked, and it’ll be really interesting to see which team(s) emerge to lead the pack. Stanford has its biggest games at home, and that could lead to good things.

 

 

14        Nebraska

Last Season:     4-8

Key Games:     9/28 vs. Ohio St., 11/16 vs. Wisconsin, 11/29 vs. Iowa

I’m really going out on a limb. After back to back four win seasons the Cornhuskers enter Year 2 of the Scott Frost era, which means that noticeable improvement is expected.  So does that mean going from losing seasons to bowl eligibility?? Or does it mean bursting back onto the scene with 8-10 wins?? The biggest games are at home, and just one upset might mean a huge turnaround for the program.

 

 

13        LSU

Last Season:     10-3

Key Games:     9/7 @Texas, 10/12 vs. Florida, 10/26 vs. Auburn, 11/9 @Alabama, 11/30 vs. Texas A&M

Ed Orgeron now seems to be firmly entrenched as the Bayou Bengals’ head coach, and that kind of stability provides a real sense of freedom for a program. A split against the four noted conference foes would be fantastic, but an early season non-conference battle at Texas could be the key to LSU’s entire season.

 

 

12        Utah

Last Season:     9-5

Key Games:     8/29 @BYU, 9/20 @USC, 9/28 vs. Washington St., 10/19 vs. Arizona St., 11/2 @Washington

Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to figuring out the Pac 12, but the Utes seem to be getting a lot of love. Anyone who has spent any time reading sports related content here at The Manofesto will recall my affection for BYU, which is why I consider that an important in-state contest for Utah even though BYU has only won eleven total games the past two years. I’m not sure what to think about Southern Cal or the two Washington teams…all three could make these rankings look silly a few months from now. One thing is for sure…the Utes are going to need to have some big road wins to have a successful season.

 

 

11        Iowa State

Last Season:     8-5

Key Games:     9/14 vs. Iowa, 11/9 @Oklahoma, 11/16 vs. Texas

Everybody loves to yap about Oklahoma & Texas, but Big 12 fans know not to sleep on the Cyclones. They’ve won eight games in each of the last two seasons, and with QB Brock Purdy entering his sophomore year I think bigger things await. I am predicting that they’ll upset either the Sooners or the Longhorns and finish third in the conference.

 

 

10        Wisconsin

Last Season:     8-5

Key Games:     9/21 vs. Michigan, 10/12 vs. Michigan St., 10/26 @Ohio St.

The bottom line is this…the Badgers have to upset one of the two Michigan teams because going into The Horseshoe & beating Ohio St. in October might be too much to expect. Otherwise, I expect a solid 8-10 win season, which is par for the course.

 

 

9          Southern California

Last Season:     5-7

Key Games:     9/7 vs. Stanford, 9/20 vs. Utah, 9/28 @Washington, 10/12 @Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Oregon

I’m doing it…I’m rolling the dice on the Trojans!! I’m not sure what the heck happened a year ago, but it was USC’s first losing season in eighteen years. Was it an anomaly?? Or was 2018 indicative of a backward slide that will continue for the foreseeable future?? Obviously I’m betting on the former, and in the words of Billy Joel I’ll walk away a fool or a king.

 

 

8          Texas

Last Season:     10-4

Key Games:     9/7 vs. LSU, 10/12 vs. Oklahoma, 11/16 @Iowa St.

The long road back to relevancy is about as complete as one can expect nowadays…all they need to do now is maintain consistency. A losing or even mediocre season now would be disastrous for a program that’s taken almost a decade to rebuild. Most “experts” expect the Big 12 to come down to Texas & Oklahoma, so the Red River Shootout in mid-October will be a huge game, but the Longhorns shouldn’t overlook Iowa St. just a month later.

 

 

7          Notre Dame

Last Season:     12-1

Key Games:     9/21 @Georgia, 10/12 vs. USC, 10/26 @Michigan, 11/30 @Stanford

Coming off a playoff season expectations are high in South Bend, but the schedule is brutal. One slip will knock them out of contention, and with big road games at Georgia, Michigan, & Stanford I’d be stunned to see the Irish go undefeated.

 

 

6          Ohio State

Last Season:    13-1

Key Games:     9/28 @Nebraska, 10/5 vs. Michigan St., 10/26 vs. Wisconsin, 11/23 vs. Penn St., 11/30 @ Michigan

Ohio St. is a football factory that recruits elite athletes and churns out winning seasons as easily as you & I change socks in the morning. However, the dividing line for such teams is whether they win 9/10 games and finish highly ranked or go undefeated and contend for a playoff spot. I don’t think there will be a significant dropoff under new head coach Ryan Day, and perhaps it is even positive for the program to be rid of the various distractions that accompanied former coach Urban Meyer. However, I don’t think you’ll see the Buckeyes in the playoff, and they might even suffer a loss to Michigan.

 

 

5             Oregon

Last Season:     9-4

Key Games:     8/31 @Auburn, 9/21 @Stanford, 10/19 @Washington, 11/2 @USC

Mario Cristobal started his reign as the Ducks’ head coach with a nine win season, so now anticipation is at a fever pitch in Eugene. A non-conference battle with Auburn to kick things off is a neutral site game at The Palace in Dallas. I don’t necessarily think that game will make or break either team’s season, but the winner will certainly be headed on an upward trajectory. I’m not sure what to make of the Pac 12 quite yet, but if Oregon can emerge from the pack they just might find themselves in playoff contention.

 

 

4             Alabama

Last Season:     14-1

Key Games:     10/12 @Texas A&M, 11/9 vs. LSU, 11/30 @Auburn

I don’t know about y’all, but ‘Bama has become a team I love to see lose. I’m just really over the whole thing. I know I should root for fellow West Virginian Nick Saban, but I just can’t. I’m an underdog kind of guy and The Tide has evolved into The Evil Empire. However, a year ago I opined that Alabama might have to lose as many as three games for the powers-that-be to leave them out of the playoff. We know for sure that they don’t need to win the SEC or even play in the title game. So here is how I see it going down. I think A&M and LSU will both provide legit tests for ‘Bama, but they’ll go into the SEC Championship ranked #1 or #2 in the country, lose the title game to Georgia, and still make the playoff.

 

 

3          Oklahoma

Last Season:     12-2

Key Games:     10-12 vs. Texas, 11/9 vs. Iowa St., 11/30 @Oklahoma St.

Sooners’ head coach Lincoln Riley…at just 35 years old…has made a believer out of me. Two straight 12 win seasons. Two consecutive Heisman Trophy winning quarterbacks. With former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts transferring in to lead the offense I see no reason to believe that Oklahoma won’t win the Red River Shootout and claim another conference title. The Big 12 doesn’t get as much respect as the other “power” conferences, and it would probably be easy for the playoff committee to squeeze the Sooners out…but I don’t believe that’ll happen this season.

 

 

2          Georgia

Last Season:     11-3

Key Games:     9/21 vs. Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Florida, 11/16 @Auburn, 11/23 vs. Texas A&M

Beating Notre Dame in September is an absolute must for the Bulldogs’ playoff hopes, but fortunately it’s a home game. I’m not buying into any Florida hype, and by late November I think tough schedules will have taken their toll on Auburn and A&M. I also believe Georgia will win the SEC Championship. I would much rather see a Clemson-Georgia National Championship versus any matchup involving Alabama.

 

 

1          Clemson

Last Season:     15-0

Key Games:     9/7 vs. Texas A&M

Champion wrestler Ric Flair used to say “to be The Man you’ve got to beat The Man”, and until someone steps up & knocks the Tigers from their perch there’s no other choice for the #1 spot. When I look at the schedule it looks like A&M is the only legit threat they face in the regular season, and the playoff committee hasn’t penalized Clemson in the past for the relative weakness of the ACC so it would be inconsistent to do so now. Most “experts” seem to recognize that Clemson is on a whole other level at the moment, and QB Trevor Lawrence is special. He’s my favorite to win the Heisman Trophy.

2019 NFL Preview & Prognostications

I was at an outdoor concert a couple of weeks ago, and as darkness fell around 9pm I felt a slight chill in the air. Autumn was in the breeze. That’s a feeling I usually don’t experience until Labor Day Weekend while attending our local Italian Heritage Festival. In the moment I was not pleased because I tend to prefer the warmth & sunshine of summer. I have nothing particular against fall except for the fact that it ushers in winter, which I despise. At any rate, in an effort to find a silver lining and think positive I must say that there are a few good things about autumn…my birthday, Halloween, & football. Glorious football is back!! It’s time once again to look into the pigskin crystal ball and make some predictions about how this season might play out. I don’t put a whole lot of stock in pre-season, but there are injuries, holdouts, & emergent rookies we can’t ignore. As always the team’s record from the previous year is in parentheses, with the predicted record for this season following it. And remember…no wagering. I am not a professional and most of the time I’m not very good at this. Let’s just relax & have some fun.

 

  

 

 

North

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-1) 10-6

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) 9-7

Cleveland Browns (7-8-1) 8-8

Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) 3-13

Despite an eventful off-season that saw talented but troubled WR Antonio Brown shipped to The Left Coast I don’t think my Steelers will implode. However, I do expect divisional games to be even more competitive than usual. Don’t sleep on the Ravens…they’ll battle for every yard on both sides of the ball, and new QB Lamar Jackson is feast or famine: he’ll have moments of pure brilliance, but he needs to become a better passer and has to stay healthy. Everyone needs to slow their roll on the “new & improved” Browns. Going back to his college days I’ve always opined that QB Baker Mayfield gave me a Bret Favre-ish vibe, and I see it now more than ever. Adding receivers Odell Beckham Jr. & Jarvis Landry into the mix along with a backfield of Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt bodes well for the offense. I like their defense too…DEs Myles Garrett & Olivier Vernon and tackle Sheldon Richardson should be stout against the run as well as put some pressure on opposing QBs, and the secondary might be sneaky good. Having said that, I’m not buying Cleveland as a playoff team just yet. The Bengals finally pushed longtime head coach Marvin Lewis out the door, but I’m not sure 35 year old Zac Taylor is the answer. He’s never been a head coach at any level and the learning curve will be quite foreboding. Regardless of whether or not Taylor lasts more than a season or two Cincy probably needs to blow things up and construct a whole new roster from the ground up.

 

 

South

Indianapolis Colts (10-6) 10-6

Houston Texans (11-5) 9-7

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) 9-7

Tennessee Titans (9-7) 5-11

There are just so many questions…this might be the most difficult division in the league to calculate. Can Colts’ QB Andrew Luck stay healthy?? Will QB Nick Foles be the answer Jacksonville has been seeking?? Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry, Lamar Miller, or Leonard Fournette…which running back will lead the pack?? Will any of these four defenses emerge as elite (the Jags were #5 a year ago, the Titans #8, Indy & Houston were #11 & #12)?? I’m downgrading Indianapolis a bit due to concerns about Luck’s ankle, but still think they will win the division if he doesn’t miss more than a couple of games. I like Foles and the Jags’ defense is stout, but have serious doubts about the durability of Fournette and the rest of their skill players inspire little confidence. I love Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson, but somebody other than WR DeAndre Hopkins has to step up and be reliably productive. Houston has the same issue on the defense…JJ Watt is fantastic, but others have to contribute. My vibe is that they take a step back this season, make some adjustments, and become serious contenders in 2020. This feels like a make or break year for Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota. When he came out of Oregon in 2015 the big debate about who would go #1 overall in the draft was between him and Florida St.’s Jameis Winston. Winston went to Tampa while Mariota was chosen next, but neither quarterback has set the world on fire. There just seems to be something amiss in Tennessee. I think they decline slightly and head coach Mike Vrabel finds himself on the hot seat.

 

 

East

New England Patriots (11-5) 10-6

New York Jets (4-12) 8-8

Miami Dolphins (7-9) 8-8

Buffalo Bills (6-10) 3-13

Here we go again. Tom Brady appears to be ageless and Bill Belichick’s stature as a head coach grows with each passing year, despite his shady tactics. The Patriots have become Tiger Woods from two decades ago when he was winning a lot but we all knew he really only cared about the majors. In much the same way it seems like everyone understands that New England will win a rather weak division, and their only true goal is another Super Bowl. With that in mind I think they’ll win the division but not run away with it. Jets’ QB Sam Darnold continues his maturation process, and now he has RB Le’Veon Bell as a safety net. I like what the Jets are doing and believe they’ll noticeably improve. I feel bad for Dolphins & Bills fans. They’ve known for a decade & a half that their teams aren’t winning the division, but they don’t even get to enjoy watching obvious progress. Both squads just seem to be treading water and perpetuating their mediocrity with poor coaching hires, bad free agent moves, and subpar drafts.

 

 

West

Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) 11-5

Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) 10-6

Oakland Raiders (4-12) 6-10

Denver Broncos (6-10) 3-13

At the time of publication Chargers’ RB Melvin Gordon is threatening to continue his holdout into the start of the season, which could certainly have a negative impact. Even if he’s back in uniform Week 1 there have to be questions about fitness & durability after sitting out the entire pre-season. It’s a messy situation that opens the door just enough for the Chiefs to slip by & take the division. There’s a lot to like about KC, led by NFL MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Speaking of messy situations, the Antonio Brown Circus has moved from Pittsburgh to Oakland, which theoretically should make the Raiders better on the field…but I’m not convinced. I’ve lost track of whether this is the team’s final season in Oakland or if they’ll have to wait until 2021 to relocate to Las Vegas, but until that move occurs I think the Raiders are stuck in neutral. The Broncos have ostensibly improved their quarterback quandary with the addition of Joe Flacco & by drafting Drew Lock out of Missouri in the second round of the draft. They also have new head coach Vic Fangio, which should help the defense. Give this group time to gel & they have potential, but I have low expectations for the current season.

 

Playoff Teams:   Chiefs, Steelers, Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Texans

AFC Championship:    New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers

 

 

 

 

North

Chicago Bears (12-4) 11-5

Minnesota Vikings (8-7-1) 8-8

Green Bay Packers (6-9-1) 8-8

Detroit Lions (6-10) 5-12

The more things change the more they stay the same, and I don’t expect much difference in what ESPN’s Chris Berman used to call the Norris Division. The Packers have a new head coach and QB Aaron Rodgers has become increasingly enigmatic. The Vikings have some talent but not enough to move the needle. The Lions are…well, they’re the Lions. That leaves the Bears to claim another division crown and vie for home field thru the playoffs. QB Mitch Trubisky should take another step in his development and I have high expectations. Combined with a tough defense that makes for a potentially elite team. Anything short of an appearance in the conference title game will be a disappointment for Chicago.

 

 

South

New Orleans Saints (13-3) 14-2

Atlanta Falcons (7-9) 9-7

Carolina Panthers (7-9) 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11) 2-14

My heart still hurts for the Saints and their fans. They absolutely should have been in the Super Bowl last season but got royally screwed by an inept officiating crew. My vibe is that situation will provide motivation to an already very solid team. QB Drew Brees is almost as nature-defying as Brady, but I suspect this may be his last great opportunity to get another Lombardi Trophy. The Falcons & Panthers will both be good but not great, and I have serious concerns about the health & durability of Carolina QB Cam Newton. Tampa is just a warmer version of Buffalo with a more heralded QB. They can change coaches and do all the tinkering they want, but none of their decisions seem to work out the way they hope. Jameis Winston is undeniably talented, but I just don’t think he is a top shelf NFL quarterback.

 

 

East

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) 10-6

Dallas Cowboys (10-6) 9-7

Washington Redskins (7-9) 7-9

New York Giants (5-11) 6-10

The Eagles’ safety blanket is gone, so QB Carson Wentz better stay healthy. Not only that, but he needs to live up to the hype. The division will be a dog fight, and Wentz needs to fulfill his potential for Philly to come out on top. I’m not buying the Cowboys’ hype. I don’t think they’ll be horrible, but the holdout of RB Zeke Elliott could have a negative impact. Media types will yap endlessly about a “quarterback controversy” in New York, but does it really matter?? I’ve never thought Eli Manning was that good, and if he loses the starting gig to rookie Daniel Jones it says a lot more about Manning than it does Jones. Either way the Giants’ QB…whomever it may be…won’t have Odell Becham Jr. to throw to, and that’s a problem. RB Saquon Barkley can only do so much, right?? The Redskins will have some solid games and at times look like a potential playoff team, but at the end of the day their fans will be disappointed and be left to wonder what happened. Head coach Jay Gruden is an offensive coordinator masquerading as a head coach, successfully trading on his more famous brother’s name, and he’s not going to achieve much success with Case Keenum as his starting quarterback. Rookie signal caller Dwayne Haskins will likely snag the job by mid-season, so there is some hope for the future.

 

 

West

Los Angeles Rams (13-3) 10-6

San Francisco 49ers (4-12) 9-7

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) 8-8

Arizona Cardinals (3-13) 4-12

I hated what happened in the NFC Championship game last season not only because of how the Saints got shafted, but also because I knew the Rams were sitting ducks in the Super Bowl. As talented as they are I just knew that the Patriots were foaming at the mouth to take on a young & inexperienced coach/QB combo, and it turned out exactly as I knew it would. And now the Rams aren’t a secret to the rest of the league so their opponents will be more prepared than a year ago. I still think they’ll win the division, but it won’t be quite as effortless. Jimmy G. is back under center for the Niners, and that means a huge turnaround. They’ll be in a battle with several other teams for a wildcard berth, but that’s a nice change from last season. Seattle still has Russell Wilson and they made some solid draft picks, but I believe they’ll take a step back this year. The Cards are trying to copy the Rams’ formula, but I’m not convinced it’ll work. Kliff Kingsbury probably needed a few more years as a college coach before taking the helm of an NFL team, and Kyler Murray is a perfect example of a great college quarterback whose skills just don’t translate to the NFL. Kudos to the powers-that-be in Arizona for rolling the dice and trying something new, but two years from now Kingsbury will probably be coaching on Saturdays and Murray will be playing baseball…if NFL defenses don’t maim the little guy.

 

Playoff Teams:   Saints, Bears, Rams, Eagles, Falcons, 49ers

NFC Championship:   New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears

 

 

 

             35

 

 

 

 

           34

 

 

 

 

 

Top 5 Picks in 2020 NFL Draft

1       Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2       Denver Broncos

3       Cincinnati Bengals

4       Buffalo Bills

5       Arizona Cardinals

Winning & Musing…Volume 2.19

Hold on Lil Troopers…spring isn’t too far away!! Oh I suppose we may get hammered with snow a few more times because March is always a wildcard, but when McDonald’s is already serving shamrock shakes, NASCAR is back on the track, and baseball is part of the sports discussion we know the light at the end of the tunnel will be shining soon. Thankfully there is always more than enough sports news to discuss, although I’m not sure how much of it is all that pleasant at the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

Spring training is in full swing, but let’s not overlook what MLB has done off the field. It was recently announced that they will no longer use the term “disabled list” in regard to injured players. The change was made at the suggestion of advocacy groups for the disabled “out of concern that the term disabled for injured players falsely conflates disabilities with injuries and an inability to participate in sports”. As a disabled (handicapped, crippled, differently abled, handicapable…choose whatever buzzword you believe won’t offend anyone) individual who has spent my entire 46 years on this planet using a wheelchair allow me to opine that this is absolutely one of the dumbest instances of idiotic virtue signaling I have ever seen. No one with an ounce of common sense or capable of critical thought has ever confused baseball’s disabled list with those of us living our lives with a disability, and anyone offended by the term “disabled list” is a complete moron that should never be allowed to breed or even interact with the public. Also, as a person with a disability, it ticks me off that this is the sort of thing that “advocacy groups” are spending their resources on. Any such organization should be defunded immediately.

 

 

I come not to praise New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, but neither do I seek to bury him. If you’ve been paying any attention at all the past few days you know that Kraft is in some hot water for getting his jollies at a “massage parlor” in Florida, an establishment that got caught up in a big prostitution ring. I am not condoning the activity or Kraft’s involvement in it, and y’all know that I’ve despised the Patriots for the past two decades. Having said that, it must be noted that 77 year old Kraft lost his wife of almost fifty years awhile back. Myrna Kraft died of ovarian cancer at the age of 68 in 2011. Certainly that is no excuse to engage in illegal activity, but it does suggest a man that is lost & lonely despite his immense wealth & success, and I am willing to have some measure of sympathy in that regard. Loneliness & grief are awful things and can steer people in directions they wouldn’t otherwise go. What I cannot understand is why a billionaire with some level of prominence would decide to…seek pleasure…at what the media is describing as a rather trashy & foul (not to mention public) establishment. One would assume that Kraft has the means to obtain anything he’d want in complete privacy, so it is a bit perplexing to think that he would unnecessarily put himself in harm’s way (on multiple levels). Obviously the NFL will get their pound of flesh (pun unavoidable). The league’s personal conduct policy applies to owners & coaches as much as it does players, and about five years ago Indianapolis Colts’ owner Jim Irsay was fined $500k and suspended from running the team for six games after being arrested for DUI & drug possession. I’m not sure what exactly a typical owner of a professional sports franchise does on a daily basis that effects operations, and a half million dollars is pocket change to them, so that “punishment” seems rather hollow, but I assume Kraft will receive a similar penalty. I’m sure the legal consequences won’t amount to much either, but the damage to his reputation is immeasurable and probably irreparable.

 

 

I am at a loss to explain just what has happened to the West Virginia Mountaineers basketball team. After making it to the Sweet Sixteen during March Madness three out of the past four years the ‘Eers won’t be making the NCAA, NIT, CBI, or any other post season tournaments in 2019. Injuries, dismissals, and just about every other calamity one might conjure has imploded their season to the point that a winning record is mathematically impossible unless they go on an incredible run in the Big 12 conference tournament. WVU has been the runner-up in that tournament the past three years and needs another similar finish to keep on playing. I normally try to remain optimistic, but will confidently predict right now that that isn’t going to happen. Head coach Bob Huggins has built up a lot of goodwill over the years as a hometown guy, alumnus, successful coach, and leader of winning teams in Morgantown, but trust me…he needs to figure out what went wrong and fix it, because all the benevolence shown him will turn sour real quick if next season is another disaster.

 

 

Have y’all checked out the Alliance of American Football?? I have to be honest…I watched part of one of the first games a few weeks ago, and haven’t given the league a second thought since. Part of the issue is completely mine…I work on weekends so I’m gone all day and in bed pretty early at night. However, I think there’s a bigger obstacle than just me for The Alliance. The AAF has eight teams… Atlanta Legends, Birmingham Iron, Memphis Express, & Orlando Apollos in the East, and Arizona Hotshots, Salt Lake Stallions, San Antonio Commanders, & San Diego Fleet in the West. Known entities like Steve Spurrier, Mike Singletary, & Mike Martz are head coaches. The initial games I watched were on CBS, but after that the NFL Network & CBS Sports Network took over, and that’s a bit of a problem since those are channels that I don’t typically “surf”…I have to specifically be seeking something out, and I’m just not there yet with The Alliance. On the field the games themselves aren’t anything too wacky. Unlike some other fringe football leagues that have come & gone in the past the AAF isn’t trying to reinvent the wheel or compete with the NFL, but there are a few differences. There are no kickoffs, which I don’t like but realize that it’s a concept that’ll be embraced by college football & the NFL sooner or later. Neither are there extra points. Somewhere Skip Bayless is squealing with glee about the new league’s marginalization of kickers. Defenses are somewhat limited as far as what they can do, so if you like swarming defense with a lot if blitzes the AAF might not be your cup of tea. Overtime has each team start on their opponent’s 10 yard line, which is even goofier that the college OT rules. There is only one overtime, so the game can end in a tie (no field goals!!). The revelation that has hit me about the AAF is that…atleast for me…as The Bible says, “to everything there is a season”, and as big of a football fan as I am I’m ready to move on after the Super Bowl. It’s February, which means that emotionally & psychologically football is in hibernation for me and I’m ready to move on to golf, NASCAR, basketball, & baseball. This realization surprised me a little bit, because I had thought it’d be great to have more football, but I just can’t become invested. I’m guessing that my perspective isn’t unique, which probably spells doom for The Alliance after another season or two, but hey…they tried.

 

 

If you think MLB is silly…well, one minor league team has surpassed that stupidity. The Hartford Yard Goats, a Double A affiliate of the Colorado Rockies in the Eastern League, recently made the decision to ban peanuts & Cracker Jacks altogether in deference to those with a nut allergy. But wait…there’s more!! Not only is their stadium now peanut free, but management has decided to change the lyrics to Take Me Out to the Ballgame, which of course contains the line “buy me some peanuts & Cracker Jacks”. Oh my…where to begin. These kinds of people absolutely exhaust every ounce of patience I possess and are a contributing factor to me adopting a reclusive lifestyle. First of all, about 2% of the population has a peanut allergy. The Yard Goats play their home games at Dunkin’ Donuts Park, which has a capacity of about 6200. So at a home game there MIGHT be about 125 people in attendance with a nut allergy. But instead of simply designating a section of the ballpark for those fans the geniuses that run the team instead chose to deprive over 6000 others of the opportunity to buy a snack that has been closely associated with baseball for decades. This is what is wrong with society. It used to be that the majority ruled, but nowadays we go out of our way to kowtow to the vocal minority & every fringe group that decides to whine about something. Look, I am not unsympathetic to folks with a nut allergy. No one is suggesting that they shouldn’t attend games, and I don’t think there is anything wrong with reasonable accommodations to make their experience as pleasant as it should be.  However, I just do not understand why a nut free section wasn’t enough of a compromise. This whole thing reeks of virtue signaling & grandstanding at its worst. And I haven’t even gotten to the song!! Take Me Out to the Ballgame was written in 1908 and has been a standard at ballparks for decades, oftentimes sung by the crowd during the “seventh inning stretch” (most famously at Wrigley Field during Chicago Cubs games). So because the food mentioned in the song has been banned at this particular ballpark they feel it is necessary to alter the lyrics too?? ASININE!!!! Every executive employed by the team should be fired immediately and NEVER be allowed to work in sports management EVER again. I’d be embarrassed to be a fan of the team, play for the team, or even live in freakin’ Hartford, CT. Hell, if I lived in Hartford I might sell my house and move, citing the stupid Hartford Yard Goats as the reason for my departure. I hope they lose every single game until the business implodes & the team folds. Perhaps a competing club will be created and they can call them the New Haven Nut Lovers or the Fairfield Cracker Jacks.

Winning & Musing…Farewell Football

You might think it is a bit weird that we are wrapping up the football season before The Super Bowl even kicks off, and perhaps it is, but that’s one of the things we’ll talk about, as well as tying up a few other loose ends in the inaugural 2019 edition of W&M. Enjoy.

 

 

 

 

As a lifelong Pittsburgh Steelers fan I feel obligated to chime in on this Antonio Brown brouhaha. A couple of years ago Brown went on Facebook live from the locker room during a playoff postgame speech by head coach Mike Tomlin, and that was the first indicator to me that there might be an issue with his ego & attitude. Then, several months ago, a friend of mine suggested I check out a show on Animal Planet called Tanked, on which AB was a guest who was having a custom fish tank made for him. During that program I got a little more exposure to his arrogance. No one seems to be talking about the details of Brown’s falling out with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, and I was always taught that there are three sides to every story…one side, the other side, & somewhere in the middle is the truth. Big Ben probably isn’t blameless. He has his faults, as do we all. However, given the preponderance of the evidence and the fact that Brown essentially quit on his team in the midst of a must-win scenario before the final game of the season I will not be heartbroken if the Steelers pull the trigger on a trade. Having said that, I hope that they are smart enough not to give the guy away for anything less than a first round pick, and it would be smart to send him to an NFC team. The vindictive side of me would like to see him go to a terrible team like Arizona, Tampa Bay, or Detroit, but that might be asking for too much. I’d be remiss to ignore Tomlin’s part in all of this drama. It is my personal belief that the Steelers have severely underachieved with him at the helm. That may seem a bit harsh since he has led the team to two Super Bowls and one championship, but most Steelers fans agree that the team should have won two or three additional Lombardi Trophies in the past several years. The Antonio Brown controversy has reinforced the general impression that the team lacks discipline and that Tomlin doesn’t run a tight ship. However, those calling for him to be fired are wasting their energy because that’s just not how the Steelers do things. They haven’t fired a head coach in a half century.

 

 

Zach edged me out in our college football Bowl-a-Palooza picks. He went 25-13, while I was 22-13.  I limped to the finish in our Pigskin Picks of Profundity, going 1-4 in the final week to finish the season 51-56. Conversely, Zach ended on a strong note, going 4-1 in the final week to end the season 47-61.

 

 

Congratulations to the Clemson Tigers for winning their second national championship in three years. I must confess that I watched very little of the title game because the Alabama Crimson Tide began to bore me to tears quite awhile ago, so I’m not sad at all that Clemson beat the snot out of ‘Bama by four touchdowns.

 

 

I am cautiously optimistic about new West Virginia Mountaineers head coach Neal Brown. After a few successful seasons at Troy (a 1-AA school that plays in the Sun Belt Conference) Brown comes to Morgantown after the sudden departure of former coach Dana Holgorsen. I can’t blame Holgorsen for bolting. Sure, Houston isn’t in a “Power 5” conference…but they will be, and probably sooner rather than later. Since the school is situated in the fourth largest city in America and the state of Texas is one of the top recruiting areas for elite athletes one must assume that the Cougars are a sleeping giant. There is also the fact that Holgorsen never seemed to feel totally comfortable in the Mountain State. He just never really fit in here, unlike beloved former coach Don Nehlen, who came to West Virginia in 1980 from Ohio and never left, even after he retired in 2000. Holgorsen will undoubtedly be happier in Houston and likely lead his team to great success. Meanwhile, Brown has made a good first impression and seems to quickly be fitting in just fine. Will that translate to winning on the field?? Who knows?? The truth is that no matter who the coach is the Mountaineers can probably expect to average 7 or 8 wins per season and play in a run-of-the-mill bowl game each December, but perhaps every once in awhile the stars will align, the dominos will all fall just right, and they could sneak into a Big 12 title game & maybe even the playoff. They’ve been that good maybe about a half dozen times in my 40+ years on the planet, so there’s always hope.

 

 

I’m not going to analyze my NFL Preview in detail. By now we all know I said a lot of crazy things that turned out to be completely wrong. In the NFC I only predicted 2 of the 6 playoff teams correctly, while I did a little better in the AFC, getting 4 out of 6 right. I placed way too much faith in my Steelers. Not only did they not get to The Super Bowl…they didn’t even make it to the playoffs. I nailed two of the Top 5 picks in this spring’s NFL Draft (Tampa & Arizona), and the 6-10 Denver Broncos & Cincinnati Bengals fell to 10th & 11th in the draft order only because so many other teams were even more inept, so I’m at peace with those choices. I had the Seattle Seahawks in that bottom five, but they actually went 10-6 and made the playoffs. I assume most pundits thought the San Francisco 49ers would be much better than 4-12 with the 2nd overall draft pick, but injuries destroyed their season. I really thought the Oakland Raiders & NY Jets would be rather decent this season, but they landed high draft choices as well.

 

 

As far as The Super Bowl goes, I just can’t get excited about it at all. I make no secret of my longstanding hatred of the New England Patriots, so cheering on the Los Angeles Rams would seem like a no-brainer. However, I’m not all that enthusiastic about the Rams because let’s be honest…they really shouldn’t be in the game. I don’t want to go off on a loquacious rant about officiating, but the blown call that cost the New Orleans Saints a trip to The Super Bowl was quite possibly one of the most egregious mistakes I’ve ever seen in any sport. It is inexcusable incompetence and the entire crew should be fired. The NFL needs to have some sort of mechanism in place to prevent or atleast correct such critical errors, even if it means almost total eradication of human judgment. Having said that, I suppose I will watch atleast some of “The Big Game” and pull for the Rams.

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 18

Well sports fans, we’ve reached the end of the road. Another season of picks will soon be in the books. I know the non-sports types out in The Manoverse will be happy about that, and rest assured that there is plenty of content on the drawing table for 2019, provided that I can stay motivated and not give in to my more apathetic tendencies. For those of us that love football there are still a few college bowl games and the NFL playoffs on the horizon. Zach (4-1) smoked me (1-4) last week, which means that it is still mathematically possible (though not likely) for him to win the season crown, while I’ve got some work to do to finish the year above water. I briefly pondered doing a big season ending blowout where we would pick every game on the schedule, but decided against it, though you’re still getting bonus picks. There are no Thursday or Monday night games, meaning that everything is happening on Sunday afternoon except the Sunday night game on NBC. So RedZone will be even more fun to watch than usual. The playoff situation in both conferences is mostly settled, though there are a couple of berths to decide as well as some seeding to resolve. Happy New Year friends. Thanks for reading what we have to say here, and as always don’t ever hesitate to leave comments. I look forward to more fun in 2019.

My Season:     51-56

Z’s Season:     47-61

 

 

 

 

Chicago              at                Minnesota (-5)

If the Bears beat the Vikings and the Rams lose to the 49ers, Chicago would be the NFC #2 seed based on their victory over Los Angeles a few weeks ago. However, if the Rams win (or tie) the Bears are the #3 seed regardless of the outcome of this game. With a win the Vikings could be the #5 seed if the Seattle Seahawks lose or the #6 seed if Seattle wins. Minnesota could even make the playoffs if they lose this game…if the Philadelphia Eagles also lose (or tie). I feel like Chicago has been the more consistent team this season, but with their backs against the wall & the home field I’m riding with the Vikings this week. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Minnesota

Z’s Pick:     Minnesota

 

 

 

LA Chargers (-6.5)               at                Denver

Will the Chargers be the AFC West champs and the #1 seed…or a wildcard #5 seed?? To win the division they need the KC Chiefs to lose (or tie). The Broncos are 6-9, and head coach Vance Joseph might get fired this week regardless of the outcome, although I have to assume an upset victory could help his cause. Denver has the home field, and they did beat the Chargers back in November…but I just don’t think that’s going to happen again. Zach thinks the Broncos are clearly a better team at home, and he’s a little uncomfortable with the points.

My Pick:     LA Chargers

Z’s Pick:     Denver

 

 

Philadelphia (-6.5)                at                Washington

The media has to be pulling for Philly because let’s face it…another improbable playoff run with Nick Foles under center would be a cool story. However, the Eagles have to win and hope Chicago beats Minnesota. I suppose that’s not too far-fetched, and I’d like to see it happen. Can the Redskins play spoiler?? It’s possible, but I’m going to say no. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Philadelphia

Z’s Pick:     Philadelphia

 

 

Jacksonville                at                Houston (-7)

The Texans could be the #1 seed in the AFC if they win this game and the Chiefs, Chargers, & Patriots all lose, but the odds are against all of that happening. If only New England loses (or ties) then Houston could be the #2 seed. They might end up as the #3 seed with a loss and a tie in the Indianapolis-Tennessee game…an unlikely scenario…or if they win and all of that other stuff doesn’t happen (much more probable). If Houston loses and Colts/Titans doesn’t end in a tie they’ll fall to the #6 seed. Meanwhile, the 5-10 Jags are left to wonder where it all went so wrong this season and can begin the process of evaluating free agent quarterbacks and who they might be able to snag with their first round draft pick. We both feel like Houston should win by a comfortable margin.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Houston

 

 

Oakland                       at                Kansas City (-13.5)

The Chiefs can win the AFC West and secure the #1 seed with a victory or if they tie and the Chargers lose (or tie). I think there are some other possibilities, but it probably doesn’t matter because if KC can’t beat the 4-11 Raiders at Arrowhead they’re in big trouble anyway. Zach doesn’t like the points at all and believes Andy Reid tends to choke in big games.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Oakland

 

 

 

Cleveland                              at                Baltimore (-6)

There will be no bigger Browns fans on Sunday than Zach & myself. What it boils down to is this: if the Ravens win they are the AFC North champs and depending on what happens with a couple of other teams could be the #2, #3, or #4 seed, eliminating my Steelers in the process. If Cleveland wins Baltimore is eliminated from the playoffs and the Steelers are in. A year ago I would have already been in a mood of quiet resignation, but I think there’s a chance that the Browns could actually pull this off. Zach believes in Browns’ QB Baker Mayfield to do just enough to lead his team to victory in a low scoring defensive struggle.

My Pick:     Cleveland

Z’s Pick:     Cleveland

 

 

 

Indianapolis (-2)                  at      Tennessee

This is the Sunday night game on NBC, and it should be really fun. Atleast these two teams will have the advantage of knowing exactly where they stand before kickoff. The Colts have to win to get into the playoffs, and they’d either be the #3, #4, or #6 seed, depending on other outcomes. It’s a must-win for the Titans as well, and they could land anywhere from the #2 to the #6 seed in the AFC. After a rough start Indy has won 8 out of their last 9, and I have heard a couple of talking heads state that they’re the team no one wants to face in the playoffs. Tennessee is riding a four game winning streak but QB Marcus Mariota has been battling injuries. Regardless of Mariota’s status I trust Colts’ QB Andrew Luck much more, and I think he’ll find a way to lead his team to a hard fought victory. Zach foresees a high scoring affair, with Indy coming out on top.

My Pick:     Indianapolis

Z’s Pick:     Indianapolis

 

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 17

Time flies when you’re having fun. Isn’t that the common expression?? I can hardly believe that we’re near the end of another football season. It seems like just yesterday the warm summer breeze of August was blowing as we began this journey, and now the cold winds of the holidays are making cozy blankets & hot mugs of cocoa the accessories of choice as we watch another year come to a close. I am pondering a slam bang finish to our entertaining little project next week, but for now we move forward after a week in which Zach (3-2) bested me (1-4) and point spreads were a key difference. He probably doesn’t have much of a chance to catch me for the season crown, but a strong finish is always nice, and I’m just trying to get back above .500.

My Season:        50-52

Z’s Season:        43-60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cincinnati                    at      Cleveland (-8.5)

In my season preview I predicted that for the Browns “winning more games than they’ve won in total over the past couple of seasons would be cause for optimism. If that actually happens then it could mean a last place finish for the Bengals”. As we near the conclusion of the season Cleveland has already won the six games I said they would and they’re currently a half game above Cincinnati in the standings. So basically my prediction comes down to this game, and it just so happens to be in Cleveland. Zach likes the way the Browns have been playing and believes they will win the game…but he isn’t comfortable with the points and doesn’t think they’ll cover.

My Pick:     Cleveland

Z’s Pick:     Cincinnati

 

 

 

 

Green Bay (-3.5)                   at      NY Jets

In that same season preview I gave the Packers eight wins, and said they “are leaning on their reputation but in reality aren’t that good”. As it turns out they’re even worse than I thought. The Jets have also been even worse than I imagined they would be since I predicted they’d get to seven wins. Neither team seems to have any momentum and both seem to be limping to the finish line, so I’m not sure where to go with this one. New York has the home field, so I’ll lean in that direction. Zach thinks both teams are bad but still believes the Jets are worse.

My Pick:     NY Jets

Z’s Pick:     Green Bay

 

 

 

 

Houston             at      Philadelphia (-2)

Could history be repeating itself?? Will backup QB Nick Foles spell an injured Carson Wentz, get his team on a run, & lead them back to The Super Bowl?? Ehhh…probably not. I suppose they could still get into the playoffs, but this game is probably a must win, and the Texans have won 10 out of their last 11 games. I am somewhat surprised that Philly…even with the home field…is favored. That seems more than a little disrespectful to Houston, and I’m not buying it. Zach is all in on Foles and is predicting another Philly upset.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Philadelphia

 

 

 

 

Kansas City (-2.5)      at      Seattle

I was way off in my assessment of the Seahawks. I opined that “Seattle’s Legion of Boom has been relegated to the dust bin of history and their once imposing defense looks totally decimated” before predicting that they’d win only five games. They are currently 8-6 and could clinch a wildcard with a home victory against the celebrated Chiefs, who need to keep winning to secure a division title or else they’ll be one of the best wildcard teams in recent memory. Both teams have plenty of motivation and something to play for…I just think KC is the better team. Zach thinks the home field for Seattle is an advantage that the Chiefs won’t overcome.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Seattle

 

 

 

Denver (-2.5)      at      Oakland

There have already been rumors that Broncos head coach Vance Joseph is about to lose his job. They are 6-8, which is atleast better than the 2-14 I penciled in for them a few months ago, but I suppose when combined with a 5-11 finish a year ago one can understand a lack of patience from the front office. The Raiders are a few games worse than their opponents, but we all know that Gruden will get a pass for a couple of years before the powers-that-be start to get restless. Once this season is finished their focus will quickly turn to the team’s impending move to Las Vegas as well as the three first round draft picks they’ll have this spring. So, while both teams are suffering thru an horrendous season I think it’s fair to say that they are on opposite ends of the hope spectrum. The stark contrast in future outlook might be enough to make a difference. Conversely, Zach foresees Denver scoring an easy victory.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Denver

2018-19 College Football Bowl-a-Palooza

So…college football’s bowl season kind of snuck up on me y’all!! The games actually begin today. At the moment I am hoping I get this up on the website in time, but rest assured that even if I’m running a little late these picks were made in advance…no shenanigans. I’m feeling a little more ambivalent than usual about these games…for a variety of reasons. However, I will try to refrain from my normal kvetching about stupid (i.e. corporate) bowl names, teams with only six wins being bowl eligible, & the schedule containing far too many pointless games. There are those that embrace the idea of as many bowl games as possible because a bad football game is like bad sex…still not a bad way to spend some downtime, and I suppose I see their point. At any rate, as always these games do not count toward our season long Pigskin Picks of Profundity, we don’t bother with point spreads, & for the most part we understand that a variety of elements that we may know nothing about can have an effect on the outcomes. I’ve decided not to break everything down into tiers this year, so we’ll just go in chronological order. Enjoy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cure

Orlando, FL

Saturday 12/15 at 1:30pm on CBS Sports Network

Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (7–6)   vs.    Tulane Green Wave (6–6)

The proceeds from the game are donated to breast cancer research, which is nice. I suppose the NCAA wouldn’t have approved of naming it the Boobies Bowl. Having no real knowledge about either team I’m going with the Green Wave because I like waves & the color green. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Tulane

Z’s Pick:     Tulane

 

 

New Mexico

Albuquerque, NM

Saturday 12/15 at 2pm on ESPN

Utah State Aggies (10–2)   vs.    North Texas Mean Green (9–3)

This might actually be a fun game. Both teams have obviously had a successful season and are well deserving of a bowl bid. Sticking with a theme I’m picking North Texas because their green is mean. Conversely, Zach likes the rushing attack for the Aggies.

My Pick:     North Texas

Z’s Pick:     Utah St.

 

 

Las Vegas

Las Vegas, NV

Saturday 12/15 at 3:30pm on ABC

Arizona State Sun Devils (7–5)  vs.    Fresno State Bulldogs (11–2)   

Vegas baby!! Vegas!!!! I envy these kids for getting to spend a few days in Sin City. I am sure that, despite all the potential distractions, Herm Edwards will have his Sun Devils ready to play. The Bulldogs defeated Boise St. to win the Mountain West title game, and this is their reward. It should be another fun game, and I gotta go with my man Herm to score the upset. Zach likes ol’ Herm well enough, but he just can’t be all in on the Sun Devils at this point.

My Pick:     Arizona St.

Z’s Pick:     Fresno St.

 

 

Camellia

Montgomery, AL

Saturday 12/15 at 5:30pm on ESPN

Eastern Michigan Eagles (7–5)  vs.    Georgia Southern Eagles (9–3)

A camellia is a type of flower. Fans of the classic novel To Kill a Mockingbird might recognize it as the flower grown by mean old Mrs. Dubose that was destroyed by an angry Jem Finch. I know zero about the teams involved, so I’m just going with the favorites. Zach believes it’ll be an easy win for Georgia Southern.

My Pick:     Georgia Southern

Z’s Pick:     Georgia Southern

 

 

New Orleans

New Orleans, LA

Saturday 12/15 at 9pm on ESPN

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (8–5)         vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers (10–2)       

It’s a great location for a bowl game, but I have to wonder how many folks from Murfreesboro, TN (located about 30 miles from Nashville) & Boone, NC (named for pioneer Daniel Boone) will be making the trek to The Big Easy. The Blue Raiders beat my Marshall Thundering Herd back in October (on my birthday!!), so I’ve got to root against them. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Appalachian St.

Z’s Pick:     Appalachian St.

 

 

Boca Raton       

Boca Raton, FL

Tuesday 12/18 at 7pm on ESPN

Northern Illinois Huskies (8–5)  vs.    UAB Blazers (10–3)  

UAB shut down their football program for a couple of seasons awhile back, so it’s great to see the team revived & successful.  Northern Illinois played Florida St. in the Orange Bowl back in 2012, so they’ve had their share of success over the years. I really like UAB’s comeback story so I always cheer for the Blazers. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     UAB

Z’s Pick:     UAB

 

 

Frisco

Frisco, TX

Wednesday 12/19 at 8pm on ESPN

San Diego State Aztecs (7–5)              vs.              Ohio Bobcats (8–4)  

No, the game is not in San Francisco…it’s in Frisco, TX, a Dallas suburb. I think the Aztecs have too much speed & firepower for the Bobcats to overcome, so I’m looking for a fairly comfortable victory for SD State. Zach likes State’s rushing attack to lead the way.

My Pick:     San Diego St.

Z’s Pick:     San Diego St.

 

 

Gasparilla 

Tampa, FL

Thursday 12/20 at 8pm on ESPN

South Florida Bulls (7–5)            vs.              Marshall Thundering Herd (8–4)         

This is how you name a bowl game. At first glance you might think that gasparilla is some kind of flower or plant along the lines of a camellia, but the game is actually named in honor of José Gaspar, an apocryphal Spanish pirate. As the story goes, The Last of the Buccaneers allegedly lived in the Tampa area, plundering & pirating across The Caribbean & The Gulf of Mexico during the late 18th to early 19th century. It’s a cool story even if it is probably fictional. Anyway, I can’t pick against my alma mater, even though I did rank their opponent 12th in my pre-season poll. I’m happy this game is on a non-work night for me because I think it’ll be fun to watch. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Marshall

Z’s Pick:     Marshall

 

 

Bahamas  

Nassau, Bahamas

Friday 12/21 at 12:30pm on ESPN

FIU Panthers (8–4)              vs.              Toledo Rockets (7–5)         

I’m not sure how many fans of either team will be making the trip, but for those able to afford it and for the players, coaches, & staff of each program going to The Bahamas seems like a rather splendid Christmas gift.  I think this is another game where speed & athleticism will make a huge difference. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Florida International

Z’s Pick:     Florida International

 

 

Potato       

Boise, ID

Friday 12/21 at 4pm on        ESPN

Western Michigan Broncos (7–5)                 vs.              BYU Cougars (6–6)  

I will be eternally bemused that Boise was deemed by somebody somewhere as an appropriate bowl location. Perhaps the folks at The Mothership in Bristol, CT thought the blue turf would mesmerize television viewers. The Cougars come into the game having been battle tested against opponents like Arizona, Wisconsin, Washington, & Utah. Conversely, the Broncos have played…well okay, Syracuse & Michigan. Gotta give them credit for playing two legit out-of-conference opponents. I think this will be a high scoring affair…something like 42-35…and I’m picking BYU to come out on top. Zach thinks BYU’s rushing attack will lead them to victory.

My Pick:     BYU

Z’s Pick:     BYU

 

 

Birmingham

Birmingham, AL

Saturday 12/22 at Noon on ESPN

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6–6)            vs.              Memphis Tigers (8–5)         

Memphis beat Houston a few weeks ago then played UCF tough in the AAC title game before losing, so I think they are a pretty decent team. Zach likes Memphis to win a shootout.

My Pick:     Memphis

Z’s Pick:     Memphis

 

 

Armed Forces   

Fort Worth, TX

Saturday 12/22 at 3:30pm on ESPN

Army Black Knights (9–2)           vs.              Houston Cougars (8–4)    

I’m actually looking forward to this game and believe it could be sneaky good. There are always a few of those this time of year. I’d love to pick Army, but I think Houston will have a size advantage in the trenches and wear down their opponent by the fourth quarter. Zach sees things the opposite way. He believes that Army’s offense will wear out the Houston defense and win in the final quarter.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Army

 

Dollar General

Mobile, AL

Saturday 12/22 at 7pm on ESPN

Buffalo Bulls (10–3)            vs.              Troy Trojans (9–3)    

I’m tempted to call this another sneaky good game, but if y’all have been sleeping on these two teams that’s your own fault. Buffalo beat Temple & Rutgers, and Troy played Nebraska tough, so they are both pretty good. Obviously neither team is going to walk into a “power” conference and compete on a weekly basis with Alabama, Oklahoma, Ohio St., etc., but on their own level they have both built respectable programs. I’ve been really impressed with the Bulls when I’ve watched them play, so I’ll lean in that direction. Zach has a gut feeling, and he’s picking Troy.

My Pick:     Buffalo

Z’s Pick:     Troy

 

 

 

Hawaii

Honolulu, HI

Saturday 12/22 at 10:30pm on ESPN

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (7–5)           vs.              Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (8–5)

Everything I said about the Bahamas Bowl applies to this game as well. I don’t know how much Tech support the Bulldogs will have (sorry…I just couldn’t resist) but for those who do make the trip it’ll surely be a fun vacation. It is basically another home game for the Rainbow Warriors, so I think that gives them a big edge. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Hawaii

Z’s Pick:     Hawaii

 

 


First Responder

Dallas, TX

Wednesday 12/26 at 1:30pm on ESPN

Boston College Eagles (7–5)               vs.              Boise State Broncos (10–3)       

This was known the past few years as the Heart of Dallas Bowl, so kudos for the name change. It may not be a New Year’s Bowl against a traditional football elite, but this is still an opportunity for Boise to prove that they can compete with “power” conference foes, and I’d like to see them take advantage of it. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Boise St.

Z’s Pick:     Boise St.

 

 

Quick Lane        

Detroit, MI

Wednesday 12/26 at 5:15pm on ESPN

Minnesota Golden Gophers (6–6)       vs.    Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (7–5) 

On paper this is one of the least appealing games being played. I probably won’t watch. You probably won’t watch. I’m going to pick Minnesota just because I think gophers are cooler than yellow jackets. Zach doesn’t think Minnesota can deal with Tech’s triple option.

My Pick:     Minnesota

Z’s Pick:     Georgia Tech

 

 

Cheez-It    

Phoenix, AZ

Wednesday 12/26 at 9pm on ESPN

TCU Horned Frogs (6–6)             vs.              California Golden Bears (7–5)   

Back in the day it was the Copper Bowl, then the Insight.com Bowl, then the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, and finally the Cactus Bowl for a few years until now. I like to dip Cheez-its in chicken salad for a tasty snack. I like these west coast games on non-work nights, so I suppose I’ll watch & hope for a fun contest. TCU was apre-season playoff team for me, but obviously they fell far short of that goal. Cal beat Washington, USC, & Colorado during the season, so they can be randomly good. The Vibes are telling me to go with the Golden Bears, and so I shall. Zach has picked against Cal four times this season and is 0-4, so now he’s coming on over to the other side.

My Pick:     California

Z’s Pick:     California

 

 

Independence

Shreveport, LA

Thursday 12/27 at 1:30pm on ESPN

Temple Owls (8–4)              vs.              Duke Blue Devils (7–5)      

The Independence Bowl has been around since 1976, and has grown from one of the lesser games to being respected as one of the old guard traditional games. Unfortunately it still doesn’t get many great matchups, and I don’t believe this will be a pleasantly surprising exception. I have a soft spot for the Owls since I fondly recall them as a Big East doormat when I was a kid (although at the time they had a highly touted basketball program). Duke is still a basketball school for the most part, but the football program has been pretty good for several years. My expectations are low, and Temple is the pick. Conversely, Zach likes Duke to get a close win.

My Pick:     Temple

Z’s Pick:     Duke

 

 

Pinstripe   

NY, NY

Thursday 12/27 at 5:15pm on ESPN

Wisconsin Badgers (7–5)            vs.              Miami Hurricanes (7–5)     

The Badgers were my pre-season #1 because…well, I’m sure my reasons seemed perfectly valid at the time. Needless to say, things didn’t quite work out as I had envisioned. The Hurricanes underperformed as well, falling off steeply from their 10-3 record a year ago. However, in spite of both squads having disappointing seasons I think this might be an entertaining game, and I am riding with my top team. I’m loyal like that. Zach feels like Miami has been too inconsistent offensively this season, and likes Wisconsin to use old-fashioned smashmouth football to score the victory.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:      Wisconsin

 

 

 

Texas       

Houston, TX

Thursday 12/27 at 9pm on ESPN

Baylor Bears (6–6)              vs.              Vanderbilt Commodores (6–6)   

Ehhh. I can’t imagine that anyone outside the two fanbases will have any interest in this game. I’ll pick Vanderbilt because the school is known as The Harvard of The South and I really like smart people. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Vanderbilt

Z’s Pick:     Vanderbilt

 

 

Music City

Nashville, TN

Friday 12/28 at 1:30pm on ESPN

Auburn Tigers (7–5)            vs.              Purdue Boilermakers (6–6)        

The Auburn folks might be disappointed in their season, but I’m not totally shocked that they went from a ten win team a year ago to where they find themselves currently. The SEC is tough anyway, and Tennessee, Kentucky, & LSU were all better than expected, so someone is going to fall thru the cracks and this year it was Auburn. The highlight of Purdue’s season was a beatdown of Ohio St. in October, which ultimately cost the Buckeyes a playoff spot. Otherwise there hasn’t been a whole lot to cheer about for Boilermaker fans. This will be portrayed as important for bragging rights between the SEC and Big Ten, and I think we all know who usually draws the short straw in that competition. Zach doesn’t think Auburn will be into the game on an emotional level, so that tips the scales to Purdue.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Purdue

 

 

Camping World

Orlando, FL

Friday 12/28 at 5:15pm on ESPN

Syracuse Orange (9–3)                vs.              West Virginia Mountaineers (8–3)      

As a Mountaineers fan I am beyond disappointed by this game. There were such high hopes coming into the season, but poor coaching and other bad decisions doomed the team to just another run-of-the-mill record, ending up in a run-of-the-mill bowl game against a run-of-the-mill opponent. I have no issue with WVU QB Will Grier’s decision to skip the game and get a head start in preparing for the NFL Draft. The dude is a potential first round draft pick…why should he risk injury is this meaningless game?? Credit where it is due to ‘Cuse for a nice season, but I’m sorry…the ‘Eers were expecting better than this. I suppose the smart money is on WVU not being all that motivated to be in the game and a bit behind the eight ball with their starting quarterback not playing. I get it…but I just can’t pick against them. Given Grier’s absence and WVU’s poor bowl record over the years Zach is going in the opposite direction.

My Pick:     West Virginia

Z’s Pick:     Syracuse

 

 

Alamo       

San Antonio, TX

Friday 12/28 at 9pm on ESPN

Iowa State Cyclones (8–4)          vs.              Washington State Cougars (10–2)      

This is the game West Virginia should be playing in, but since they didn’t bother to show up during a road loss to the Cyclones in October and probably because the games organizers can read a map and know that Iowa is a skosh closer than West Virginia to San Antonio this is how things ended up. Cougars’ QB Gardner Minshew will be looking to improve his draft stock, but he’ll be facing a tough defense. On paper the Cougars look like a heavy favorite…but they better not take the opponent lightly. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Washington St.

Z’s Pick:     Washington St.

 

 

Belk

Charlotte, NC

Saturday 12/29 at Noon on ABC

South Carolina Gamecocks (7–5)                vs.              Virginia Cavaliers (7–5)      

Could it be a sneaky good game?? Maybe, but no one is expecting much from two middle-of-the-road teams playing in a middle-of-the-road bowl game. The Vibes are telling me to pick Virginia, and I always listen to The Vibes. Zach likes the Cocks.

My Pick:     Virginia

Z’s Pick:     South Carolina

 

 

Arizona     

Tucson, AZ

Saturday 12/29 at 1:15pm on CBS Sports Network

Nevada Wolf Pack (7–5)              vs.              Arkansas State Red Wolves (8–4)     

I actually have CBSSN on my channel lineup, so I guess I’ll check in to see if this game is worth watching. I won’t hold my breath though. The Wolfpack have been on my radar for several years and have been known to play in some entertaining games. Zach is going in the opposite direction and picking the Red Wolves.

My Pick:     Nevada

Z’s Pick:     Arkansas St.

 

 

 

Peach       

Atlanta, GA

Saturday 12/29 at Noon on ESPN

Florida Gators (9–3)            vs.              Michigan Wolverines (10–2)      

Oh what might have been. Both teams had opportunities during the season to end up in a better spot, but the Gators fell to Kentucky & Missouri…two teams they’d beat in any “normal” year…and the Wolverines once again couldn’t get past archrival Ohio St. I suppose this is a rather decent consolation prize, especially for fans who can probably look forward to a competitive & engaging contest. I expect Jim Harbaugh will have his team ready, and I look for Michigan to prevail. Zach is worried about Michigan’s offense and thinks they may fall short.

My Pick:     Michigan

Z’s Pick:     Florida

 

 

 

Cotton (Playoff Semifinal Game)

Arlington, TX

Saturday 12/29 4pm on ESPN

Clemson Tigers (13–0)                          vs.              Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12–0)          

I wish I could get more excited about the playoff, but since ¾ of the field has pretty much been a foregone conclusion for weeks the whole thing has lost much of its charm. This is why the NCAA basketball tournament…aka March Madness…is a superior postseason show, because even if we think we know who the top teams are there are always upsets and surprises along the way. If we end up with the teams we perceived all along as the best battling for the title that’s okay because there has been some excitement leading up to it. With football the playoff just feels…anticlimactic. At any rate, of the two semifinal games I guess this is the one I’m most interested in. A few months ago I thought Clemson may get left out in the cold due to a rather weak schedule, but Syracuse, Boston College, & Pitt all ended up being better than anticipated, or atleast good enough for the powers-that-be to overlook Clemson’s out-of-conference games against Furman & Georgia Southern. It doesn’t hurt that the Tigers are loaded with NFL caliber talent, especially on defense. The Irish had a relatively soft schedule as well in my humble opinion, but both teams deserve credit for mowing down whatever competition was put in front of them and finishing undefeated. I think Clemson’s defense is just too damn good, so I look for them to pull out a close victory. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Clemson

 

 

 

Orange (Playoff Semifinal Game)

Miami, FL

Saturday 12/29 at 8pm on ESPN

Alabama Crimson Tide (13–0)             vs.              Oklahoma Sooners (12–1)         

I know Nick Saban is from West Virginia. I know that means I’m supposed to root for him. But Charles Manson was born in WV too, and no one was cheering him on. No, I’m not comparing Saban to Manson, but I’m just tired of Alabama. As awesome as college football is it needs some parity. It needs for some great teams to have a few bad years and a few bad teams to challenge for championships. That’s one reason why we love the NFL…it isn’t uncommon for a team to finish at the bottom of their division one year and make the playoffs the following season. That kind of unpredictability is good. I would have rather seen Ohio St. get the final spot instead of the Sooners, but I understand why it worked out the way it did. As far this game is concerned, I think ‘Bama’s defense is good enough to slow down Heisman winning QB Kyler Murray just a little, and their offense can go toe to toe with Oklahoma. Zach thinks the score might top 100 points collectively, and he likes Saban to make the right moves at the right time to lead his team to victory.

My Pick:     Alabama

Z’s Pick:     Alabama

 

 

Military

Annapolis, MD

New Year’s Eve at Noon on ESPN

Virginia Tech Hokies (6–6)                             vs.                        Cincinnati Bearcats (10–2)       

The Hokies owe a huge thank you to my Marshall Thundering Herd for sacrificing themselves so that Tech could become bowl eligible. I think that’s where the good news ends for them though because for possibly the first & only time Cincinnati is clearly the better team. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Cincinnati

Z’s Pick:     Cincinnati

 

 

Sun  

El Paso, TX

New Year’s Eve at 2pm on CBS

Stanford Cardinal (8–4)               vs.              Pittsburgh Panthers (7–6)          

The Sun Bowl is one of the oldest bowl games, and one of the few that doesn’t air on the ESPN “family of networks”. This could be a decent game, although in my humble opinion Pitt isn’t as good as some seem to think. Zach foresees a low scoring defensive battle.

My Pick:     Stanford

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

Redbox     

Santa Clara, CA

New Year’s Eve at 3pm on Fox

Michigan State Spartans (7–5)            vs.                        Oregon Ducks (8–4)

This game has had a few names over the years…the Walnut Bowl, the Emerald Bowl, the Fight Hunger Bowl, the Foster Farms Bowl. It’s amusing to me that Redbox has obtained naming rights because Redbox is about as outdated as Blockbuster. Does anyone actually go out and rent DVDs anymore?? My money is on this game becoming the Roku Bowl or the Amazon Firestick bowl within a year or two. The matchup is mildly compelling…two teams who probably had higher expectations but who probably ended up about where they should’ve given the competitiveness of their conferences. I think the crowd will be significantly in Oregon’s corner, and I like the Ducks’ offense to get the job done. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Oregon

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

Liberty       

Memphis, TN

New Year’s Eve at 3:45pm on ESPN

Oklahoma State Cowboys (6–6)                   vs.              Missouri Tigers (8–4)         

I wouldn’t have minded seeing my Mountaineers play in this game, but they screwed the pooch against the Cowboys in November. Missouri should have never left the Big 12…they are a forgotten team in the SEC. Tigers’ QB Drew Lock is a potential first round draft pick, so this could be a great opportunity for him to solidify that status. Conversely, Zach likes OK State.

My Pick:     Missouri

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma St.

 

 

Holiday     

San Diego, CA

New Year’s Eve at 7pm on FS1

Northwestern Wildcats (8–5)                vs.              Utah Utes (9–4)          

I’m going to climb out on a limb and predict that this will be one of the best bowl games of the entire schedule. Both teams fell short in their conference title games, so this is an opportunity for redemption. I really like Northwestern, and I think they’ll grind out a hard fought, low scoring defensive battle and snag the win. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Northwestern

Z’s Pick:     Northwestern

 

 

Gator  

Jacksonville, FL

New Year’s Eve at 7:30pm on ESPN

Texas A&M Aggies (8–4)             vs.              NC State Wolfpack (9–3) 

The Aggies are another team that should still be in the Big 12 instead of the SEC. That move never made much sense to me. Having said that, there’s no doubt that Jimbo Fisher is building something special there, and I just don’t see the Wolfpack being able to compete. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Texas A&M

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

Outback

Tampa, FL

New Year’s Day at Noon on          ESPN2

Mississippi State Bulldogs (8–4)                  vs.                        Iowa Hawkeyes (8–4)          

Both teams are overlooked in conferences that are loaded with great teams. This is a chance for them to shine and hog the spotlight for once. I like the Hawkeyes to win another low scoring defensive battle, with turnovers & special teams playing a key role in the outcome. Zach is predicting a big game from Iowa tight end Noah Fant, who might be a first round draft pick next spring.

My Pick:     Iowa

Z’s Pick:     Iowa

 

 

Citrus        

Orlando, FL

New Year’s Day at 1pm on ABC

Penn State Nittany Lions (9–3)            vs.                        Kentucky Wildcats (9–3)    

I never would have predicted a few months ago that the Wildcats would be playing football on New Year’s Day. They’ve had an outstanding season and deserve praise for their accomplishments. However, the Nittany Lions have been here before and are used to success. I think Kentucky can hang tough for three quarters, but Penn St. will pull away and win comfortably. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Penn St.

Z’s Pick:     Penn St.

 

Fiesta        

Glendale, AZ

New Year’s Day at 1pm on ESPN

LSU Tigers (9–3)                           vs.                        UCF Knights (12–0)  

I didn’t think either team would be as good as they’ve been this season, despite past success. UCF hasn’t lost a game in two years, which is amazing, and they proved a year ago that they can hang with the big boys when they defeated Auburn in the Peach Bowl. Can they do the same thing without injured starting QB McKenzie Milton?? I’d love to see it. Zach thinks UCF might win in a blowout.

My Pick:     Central Florida

Z’s Pick:     Central Florida.

 

 

Rose

Pasadena, CA

New Year’s Day at 5pm on ESPN

Washington Huskies (10–3)                 vs.              Ohio State Buckeyes (12–1)       

I know both teams wanted to be in the playoff, and I thought the Buckeyes might have been able to sneak in, but I suppose the Rose Bowl is one hell of a fallback option. This is the last hurrah for Ohio St. head coach Urban Meyer before he “retires” (for now), and I expect his team to use his departure and anger about being left out of the playoff as fuel to spark a big win. Conversely…and to absolutely no one’s surprise…Zach is picking Washington.

My Pick:     Ohio St.

Z’s Pick:     Washington

 

 

Sugar        

New Orleans, LA

New Year’s Day at 8:45pm on ESPN

Texas Longhorns (9–4)               vs.              Georgia Bulldogs (11–2)    

I knew Texas would be back in the spotlight eventually, and I expect that they’ll be huge favorites to win the Big 12 next season. Georgia is probably disappointed about not making the playoff, but they received a fair shot and couldn’t overcome Alabama in the SEC title game. Both squads have their fair share of NFL caliber talent, so this will probably be a really good game to watch. Going forward I think you’ll see the Longhorns ascending and the Bulldogs descending, but in this game I’m looking for Georgia to score a tight victory. Zach actually likes Georgia to win big.

My Pick:     Georgia

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

 

College Football Playoff National Championship

Santa Clara, CA

Monday, January 7 at 8pm on ESPN

Alabama/Oklahoma              vs.              Clemson/Notre Dame

We both have predicted an Alabama vs. Clemson title game. I think Clemson is the only team good enough on both sides of the ball to give ‘Bama a fight. If this is the matchup the focus will be on QB Tua Tagovailoa & the Tide offense versus a Clemson defense that is stacked with NFL talent. But what about the other side of the coin?? Can Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence & RB Travis Etienne overcome ‘Bama’s stout defense??       It might just be wishful thinking on my part, but I really like Dabo Swinney, and I think he can lead his team to another title. Zach just can’t go against saban, and he believes Alabama will win yet another championship.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Alabama

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 16

Not only has the action already began this week in the NFL with an entertaining last second upset of the KC Chiefs by the LA Chargers, but there are actually Saturday games, which is pretty cool. For our purposes I am trying to avoid focusing exclusively on the handful of division leaders & playoff contenders, so this week we’re venturing off the beaten path a bit and showing some love for a few teams that are having a tough season, or atleast not achieving the level of success they expected. Speaking of subpar seasons…last week Zach was 0-5, while I was 2-3. Yikes. We’ll just move forward and hope for better things this time.

My Season:     49-48

Z’s Season:     40-58

 

 

 

 

 

 

Miami        `                  at                          Minnesota (-7)

One of the few bright spots in an otherwise dismal football week ago was Miami’s miracle upset of the New England Patriots. Can the Dolphins keep rolling?? I suppose they’re still in the hunt for the AFC’s final wildcard, although that’ll be a tall mountain to climb. The Vikings are in much the same situation in the NFC, but it feels a lot different because expectations were so high for them coming into the season. They’ve lost three out of their last four, and just feel like a team heading in the wrong direction. I don’t know if Miami will get the outright victory, but The Vibes are telling me it will be closer than a touchdown. Zach thinks momentum is squarely with Miami and beliees they’ll get the win.

My Pick:     Miami

Z’s Pick:     Miami

 

 

 

Tennessee                  at                NY Giants (-2.5)

The Titans are in that AFC logjam for the final playoff berth, and they’re riding a two game winning streak. Last weekend Tennessee RB Derrick Henry singlehandedly torpedoed my dynasty league playoff hopes, which was a tough pill to swallow. The Giants are in the cellar of the NFC East and already strategizing about which “quarterback of the future” they’ll select in the first round of the NFL Draft. Having said that, the Giants do have the home field and Henry won’t repeat last week’s success. Zach likes Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley, but doesn’t think the team will get over the hump until they replace aging quarterback Eli Manning. He believes the Titans will score a close victory.

My Pick:     NY Giants

Z’s Pick:     Tennessee

 

 

 

Arizona                         at                          Atlanta (-8.5)

The Cardinals could be looking at the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, and the Falcons aren’t much better. No one is expecting anything from this game, which of course means it will end up being one of the best of the weekend, right?? I don’t know if Arizona can pull off an upset on the road, but I think they’ll stay within a touchdown. Zach is going out on a limb and predicting that Atlanta can cover the points.

My Pick:     Arizona

Z’s Pick:     Atlanta

 

 

 

Detroit                           at                          Buffalo (-2.5)

I’ve lost track of who is behind center for the Bills. Josh Allen?? Derek Anderson?? Matt Barkley?? Nathan Peterman?? AJ McCarron?? It’s tough to be a Pittsburgh Pirates fan every summer, but it can’t be much fun for the folks in Buffalo having to endure the mess that the Bills have become. Atleast the Lions know that Matthew Stafford is their starting QB…for all the good that’s done them the past decade. I’m not sure what we can hope for from a matchup of teams with a combined record of 9-17, but it’s December and the game is in Buffalo so I assume the home field has to mean something. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Buffalo

Z’s Pick:     Buffalo

 

 

 

Washington                           at                Jacksonville (-6.5)

I thought the Jags would fall off a bit from last year’s impressive playoff run, but wow…they’ve totally dived off the cliff. I suppose that’s another team that will be looking to draft a quarterback in the first round. Meanwhile, the Redskins have a different kind of quarterback issue. Alex Smith is lost for the season due to an injury, and his career might be over. Josh Johnson?? Mark Sanchez?? It makes the Bills’ depth chart look good in comparison. I think this will be a low scoring game with lots of running the ball, punts, & perhaps a turnover or two to make the difference, and I’m going with the Redskins to score a mild upset. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Washington

Z’s Pick:     Washington

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 15

The college football season is over except for the playoff and of course a plethora of bowl games. Zach & I will do our annual Bowl-A-Palooza picks soon, but as always they do not count as part of our totals. We both finished the NCAA portion of our season strong, with him going 4-3 and me having my best week in awhile at 5-1. It’s all NFL all the time from here on out, and Zach is going to have to be nearly perfect to climb above .500 and take back the season lead, while I am keeping my head above water for the moment.

My Season:     47-45

Z’s Season:     40-53

 

 

 

 

 

Baltimore                     at                Kansas City (-6.5)

I have a feeling that those who will feel the biggest negative impact after the shocking release of running back Kareem Hunt are fantasy owners (like myself), while the Chiefs will be just fine. Hunt’s stupidity likely cost me a playoff spot in my dynasty league, and I am currently pondering how to proceed because his situation is far different from the infamous Ray Rice debacle. Rice was 27 years old and had a lot of miles on his legs. Hunt is four years younger, which is a big deal in the NFL. I have a feeling another team will give him a shot at redemption…perhaps as soon as next season. At any rate, KC got along just fine without him last weekend and I see no reason to expect anything less going forward. The Ravens are all the sudden right there fighting my floundering Steelers for the AFC North lead. Rookie backup QB Lamar Jackson has led the team to three straight victories, but starter Joe Flacco is reportedly healthy again, so it’ll be interesting to see how things go with all of that. Kansas City has one of the best home fields in the league, so I’m going out on a limb and picking the favorites to cover. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

 

 

 

Denver (-5.5)                at                San Francisco

In my season preview I predicted that the Broncos would go 2-14, opining that it feels as though “they’re on the edge of the cliff” and “it might get worse before it gets better”. Denver  is currently 6-6, including a three game win streak, so they’ve certainly surpassed my expectations. The 2-10 49ers have been riddled with injuries & other calamities all season, so it is difficult to have much faith in them at this point. They do have the home field, but I don’t think it’ll make much difference. Denver might not make it all the way to the playoffs, but I think their current hot streak will continue for now. Zach expects big rushing yards for Denver in a victory.

My Pick:     Denver

Z’s Pick:     Denver

 

 

 

Carolina (-1.5)             at                Cleveland

In my season preview I said that for the Browns “winning more games than they’ve won in total over the past couple of seasons would be cause for optimism”. Mission accomplished. They are 4-7-1 and I’m pretty sure they’ll get the six victories I projected for them. Conversely, I had the Panthers going 12-4 and winning the NFC South, but they have fallen far short of those lofty expectations. At 6-6 they are four games out of the division lead and battling about a half dozen other teams for a wildcard spot. On top of that there seems to be having some shoulder issues. Cleveland has the home field, and The Vibes are whispering “upset” in my ear. Conversely, Zach thinks the Browns are the perfect opponent for Carolina to right the ship against.

My Pick:     Cleveland

Z’s Pick:     Carolina

 

 

Indianapolis                at                Houston (-4.5)

The AFC South is falling just about the way I expected it to, with the exception of the sudden ineptitude of the Jacksonville Jaguars, although not even that is a total surprise since I predicted that they wouldn’t win the division. Colts’ QB Andrew Luck seems to be getting back to his old self, even if the team’s 6-6 record might not indicate that. Meanwhile, the Texans are on a roll, having won nine in a row after an 0-3 start. I see no reason to expect that winning streak to end now, although I think Indy will put up a good fight. Zach expects a high scoring affair but thinks Houston will snag the win.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Houston

 

 

 

LA Rams (-3)               at                Chicago

The old adage is that “defense wins championships”, and this might be a good example…or not. The Rams have one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL, while the acquisition of DE/LB Khalil Mack has the folks in Chicago remembering the good ol’ days of the infamous ’85 Bears defense. The Rams are averaging about 35 points per game, while Chicago’s defense has only given up 30 or more points three times (all losses).Having said all that, what may be more interesting to watch in this game is the Bears’ offense versus the Rams’ defense. The Bears get QB Mitch Trubisky back after he’s missed the past couple of games with a shoulder injury. L.A.’s defense has a front three consisting of Aaron Donald, Michael Brockers, & Ndamukong Suh, with Dante Fowler at linebacker and both Aquib Talib & Marcus Peters in the secondary. Not too shabby. I believe this will be a relatively low scoring game…something like 24-21…with the Bears getting a big upset at home. Conversely, Zach foresees a huge, multi-TD win for Los Angeles.

My Pick:     Chicago

Z’s Pick:     LA Rams