Tom Brady

Winning & Musing…..Volume 1.15

The Super Bowl is this Sunday but your humble Potentate of Profundity won’t be watching. I think it might be the first time in 42+ years on the planet that I haven’t bought into the hype. The truth is that my interests have shifted a bit in the past couple of years and I find myself less interested in sports than I once was. I find both teams involved to be somewhat loathsome. We know that the commercials won’t be all that interesting (there hasn’t been a truly memorable slate of Super Bowl ads in several years) and I can check them all out online on Monday anyway. They have a semi-talented harlot performing the halftime show which I am sure will thrill little girls with no taste and teenage boys attracted to the…well…not the music, that’s for sure. There’s just nothing there for me. My energy can be better spent reading a book or on any number of other activities. So, with that in mind now seems like the perfect time to wrap up the football season by tying some loose ends and pontificating on whatever else pops into my brain. Enjoy.

I apologize that our Pigskin Picks of Profundity ended with such a whimper. I ran into some computer issues right before the final week of the NFL regular season. I am not opposed to taking a bye week, but that’s not how I wanted to finish the year. However it is what it is. C’est la vie. For the season Zach finished with a 46-50 record (he had a brutal final week…well, the final week that we picked), while I concluded with a record of 52-44. I’d put our records against any of the talking heads at ESPN.

Our bowl picks were even closer, but with the same result. I went 23-15 for a 60.5% winning percentage, while Zach was 22-17 for a 56.4% winning percentage. Neither of us picked Ohio St. to win the national title or even make it past the semifinal. I am sure we weren’t alone in assuming Alabama would defeat the Buckeyes. Obviously we were wrong.

Looking back at my pre-season Top 25 a few things pop out. I had Florida St., Oregon, & Alabama in the Top 3, but made the assumption that Ohio St.’s chances at a national championship were lost when QB Braxton Miller was lost to injury. I was way wrong. My 4th team was South Carolina, which ended up going 6-6. I said Boise St. would win 10 or 11 games (they won 11 in the regular season), although they did finish a few spots lower in the final rankings than I thought they would. Baylor, Michigan St., & UCLA had strong seasons as I predicted. I whiffed on Oklahoma, who I thought would be a Top 10 team but finished with just 8 wins. My Marshall Thundering Herd blew an opportunity to go undefeated and finish with a Top 15 record as I’d hoped, but did end up 23rd in the polls. LSU had a subpar 8 win season and didn’t finish ranked liked I thought they would. Ditto for Notre Dame. Arizona had a solid year and finished just about where I predicted. Ditto for Auburn.

My NFL prognostications were solid with few surprises. I got 5 out of 8 division winners correct. My Steelers really surprised me by winning the AFC Central, while their Pennsylvania neighbors the Philadelphia Eagles completely fell apart down the stretch, losing 3 out of their final 4 games. I picked 5 out of 6 AFC playoff teams, although I said it’d be Denver representing the conference in The Super Bowl. Damn I wish I would have been right about that. I only got 3 out of 6 NFC playoff teams right and predicted Green Bay would go to The Super Bowl. If their coach wasn’t so conservative and they could play special teams at all I would have been right.

Even though I am ambivalent in regard to The Super Bowl the fact is that this DeflateGate stuff with the New England Patriots has been difficult to escape. Even non-sports news outlets are talking about it. I actually turned off the AFC Championship game at halftime and was in bed by 8:30pm that night. I could see where things were headed and just couldn’t stomach watching anymore Patriots “success”. So do I believe that they deflated balls in a covert attempt to win the game in an underhanded fashion?? Yes I do. Do I believe deflating balls helped all that much and altered the outcome of the game?? Not really. Although I do think those that are pointing out that New England outscored Indianapolis 28-0 in the second half after the subterfuge had been discovered and the footballs pumped up to their proper air pressure are missing the point. By halftime the game was over. The Colts’ spirits had been broken. Whatever kind of advantage the chicanery did provide in the first half was enough. I am a big believer in momentum. I think that if the score would have been 17-14 or 10-10 at the half it is possible that Indianapolis might have been more competitive. However, whether or not deflated balls made a difference in who won & lost the game isn’t really the most important issue. The fact is that over the past dozen or so years the New England Patriots, under the “leadership” of head coach Bill Belichick, have been proven to be built on a foundation of cheating and arrogantly thumbing their nose to the rulebook. If they win The Super Bowl will they really care about a fine of a few hundred grand or losing a draft pick?? Of course not. It’ll be a small price to pay. It is well known that NFL Commissioner Fidel Goodell is good buddies with Pats owner Bob Kraft. Goodell is an incompetent assclown anyway, and any kind of preferential, non-objective treatment of the Patriots in this situation would further call into question Goodell’s capability to carry out his duties properly. I know that this will never happen, but what I would do is fine the team $10 million, take away their 1st, 2nd, & 3rd round draft picks for the next three years, and suspend Belichick for the entire 2015 season. Surely this would be a stiff enough penalty to f-i-n-a-l-l-y get the attention of the folks in New England.

I had a huge problem with the NCAA ending all sanctions against Penn St. football a few months ago, penalties that had been handed down in the wake of the Jerry Sandusky sexual abuse scandal and resulting investigation. I thought the scholarship restrictions and post-season ban should have stayed in effect for the entire 4 years they had been originally set at. However, I don’t have any issue with former/late head coach Joe Paterno’s wins being restored. I have always believed that retroactively going back and changing record books and acting as if games never happened was kind of silly. We all know who won those games…why ignore it?? Eliminating the post-season ban and restoring full scholarship capacity is, in my opinion, a much bigger deal because I am not sure the citizens of Happy Valley and Nittany Lions fans have really been humbled and learned to put football in a proper perspective. It feels to me like they still assume that Penn St. is above the rules…and evidently they are right.

2014 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 13

Okay I just have to vent…again. This college football playoff thing is a complete joke. I never in a million years thought something could be worse than the BCS, but the current system has somehow managed to make the BCS look logical & fair. As an alumnus of Marshall University and a longtime fan of the Thundering Herd I find it outrageously offensive that they have thus far been excluded from the playoff committee’s Top 25. Even some of the talking heads thought this would finally be the week that the Herd was included, but instead Minnesota…a three loss team that was defeated by Ohio St. just a few days earlier…remained in the same #25 spot they’d held previously. Three loss teams Louisville and Clemson (who lost a few days ago just like Minnesota) are both ranked ahead of 10-0 Marshall as well. To add insult to injury, last week on ESPN’s Mike & Mike former Florida St. QB Danny Kanell, whose prickishness just oozes thru the TV screen, said in reference to some highly ranked team (it may have been the Seminoles, who like Marshall have had many question the strength of their schedule) that they can only play the teams that are put in front of them. Oh really?? That’s exactly what Marshall has done you sanctimonious assclown, and they’ve beaten the snot out of everyone they’ve faced (unlike Florida St., which is the luckiest team I’ve ever seen and should have lost atleast 2 games already). No one is saying that Marshall should be in the playoff. That’s not the point. The issue is that the committee not even putting them in their Top 25 is ridiculous. It’s basically a bunch of arrogant elitists saying to someone they perceive as “lesser” than them “you’re not invited to our exclusive club”. D*****bags like Kanell even refer to games among the “power” conferences as “big boy football”. The problem with their logic is that the “power” 5 conferences AND the “other” 5 conferences are ALL in the NCAA’s Football Bowl Subdivision (what used to be called Division 1-A) and therefore should have equal access to the FBS National Championship. If the “have-nots” aren’t going to have that kind of access then the divisions need revised. Let the chosen ones play “big boy football” while guys like Danny Kanell lube up and pleasure themselves watching it on TV, and allow the teams in the MAC, C-USA, Mountain West, AAC, & Sun Belt to form their own division and play for a separate national title. Maybe some “lower” teams like Boise St. would try to move up to “big boy football”. Maybe some current 1-AA teams would move up into whatever this new “lower” division would be. It’s all good. The point is that we could remove all pretense and let the morons in the media focus their idolatry on their chosen few, while the little guys would still have something legit to play for.

*
Anyway, sorry for the rant. Y’all are here for some picks. Last week I went 3-4, bringing my season record to 35-32. Zach was an impressive 6-1 and nailed the prediction that Alabama would defeat Mississippi St. but not cover the 7½ point spread. His season record is now 36-31. This looks like kind of a mediocre week in college football, but I think we’ve found a few noteworthy games as well as a couple of NFL matchups that should be fun. Enjoy.

Arizona at Utah (-4)
Neither of these teams is heading to the playoff or even the Pac 12 title game, but both are solid Top 25 teams that have had quietly successful seasons. The Utes get the slight home field advantage, but I think Arizona is the better team and will win this game easily. Zach likes the Wildcats by a TD.

My Pick = Arizona
Z’s Pick = Arizona

Louisville at Notre Dame (-3.5)
It’s awfully convenient that Louisville was never given the time of day when they were in the old Big East, but now all the sudden they are in the ACC and the playoff committee awards them a Top 25 spot even though they’ve lost three games (including an early season loss to now 4-6 Virginia) and have such luminaries as Murray St. and Florida International on their schedule. Oh by the way, Marshall also played Florida International and beat them by almost the same margin as Louisville did. The Irish have lost 3 out of their last 4 games and have quietly slipped out of the polls. Not even the idiotic playoff committee ranks Notre Dame. Apparently Minnesota’s victories over Eastern Illinois, Middle Tennessee, San Jose St., & Purdue (honest to God…the Gophers haven’t beaten anyone with a damn pulse…exactly what Marshall is accused of) are more impressive than Irish wins over Stanford and…well, okay…Stanford is the only decent team Notre Dame has beaten and even they are only 5-5. At any rate, I think Notre Dame is going to open up a can of epic whoopass on Louisville, and I hope it happens just to make the playoff committee look stupid. Zach has no love for Notre Dame, but he thinks they’ll win.

My Pick = Notre Dame
Z’s Pick = Notre Dame

USC at UCLA (-3.5)
The Battle of L.A. And it may also decides who will meet Oregon in the Pac 12 title game. I suppose UCLA still has an outside shot to make the playoff if all the dominoes fall their way, but that is highly unlikely. The Bruins have the slight home field advantage, but I’m not sure that means much considering both teams are based in the same city. I’m going with UCLA if for no other reason than I ranked them 5th in my pre-season poll and they might actually get there if they keep winning, therefore making me look like a freakin’ genius. Conversely, Zach believes that the Trojans will win by three TDs.

My Pick = UCLA
Z’s Pick = USC

Detroit at New England (-7)
When I was a kid the Detroit Lions were a joke. Occasionally they’d have a decent season, but for the most part they were mired in mediocrity. Not even the great Barry Sanders could lead them to a Super Bowl appearance in the 90’s. But right now they are having a really good season and the folks in Vegas give them 16-1 odds to make it to The Super Bowl. We’ll have a much better idea if the Lions are legit after this game. The Patriots, whose eulogy was being written by the geniuses at ESPN about a month & a half ago, have risen up like one those horror movie killers that never really die. Trust me, there is no one on Earth who’d like to see New England crash & burn more than your humble Potentate of Profundity, but I’d be shocked if that occurred in this game. Zach likes the Patriots…but not by 7 points. He thinks the Lions will lose a close game and cover the points.

My Pick = New England
Z’s Pick = Detroit

Arizona at Seattle (-6.5)
The defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks have been knocked back down to mediocrity quicker & even moreso than I predicted. At this point it will be a struggle for them to make it to the playoffs. One of the reasons why?? The division leading Cardinals, who own the best record in the NFL. Raise your hand if you saw that coming (put your hands down…liars). However, Arizona has lost QB Carson Palmer for the season and now must rely on journeyman Drew Stanton to lead them the rest of the way. Stanton got off to a good start last week in a victory over the Detroit Lions, but can he keep it up?? If this game were being played in the desert I might say yes, but it is being played in Seattle at one of the league’s most raucous venues. If the Seahawks have any hope of defending their crown this is a must win and I think they will rise to the occasion. Zach has lost faith in Seattle’s celebrated defense and thinks it is the Cardinals who deserve that kind of respect now.

My Pick = Seattle
Z’s Pick = Arizona

2014 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 12

I knew that last week was a giant roll of the dice. Every game involved two highly ranked teams trying to remain in the national championship hunt. Zach & I both went 2-3, splitting the four games in which our opinions differed and losing the one we agreed on when Alabama covered the 6½ point spread with a touchdown in overtime. Close but no cigar for us. At any rate, that brings my season record to 32-28, while Zach is holding serve at 30-30. I’m throwing a curveball this week by starting with a few NFL games, the reason being that our first contest is the Thursday nighter on NFL Network.

Buffalo at Miami (-4.5)
As expected it looks like the New England Patriots will easily win the AFC East. However, as I predicted, these two teams are atleast in the discussion for a possible wildcard spot. Actually the Dolphins have been a little bit better than I expected. I’m not sure either one will make it to the playoffs, but I bet none of their opponents look forward to facing them. Miami gets a healthy home field bump from the oddsmakers and I have no reason to disagree. Zach is far less enamored with this matchup than me, but he likes Dolphins’ QB Ryan Tannehill.

My Pick = Miami
Z’s Pick = Miami

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Philadelphia at Green Bay (-5)
This should be a really good game. I picked both of these teams to win their division, but both are currently in real battles to be able to fulfill that prophecy. The Eagles didn’t miss a beat when starting QB Nick Foles went down with a season ending injury and everyone seems suddenly supportive of Mark Sanchez, a guy that was laughed out of New York. It’s funny how things change in the NFL. Meanwhile, the good people of Green Bay have been relaxing per the instructions of their QB Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers have won 5 out of their last 6 games. The Packers get the requisite home field advantage, and if this game were being played a month from now that might be even more relevant…you know, frozen tundra & all that jazz. However I think the Eagles are the better team right now. Zach has jumped on the Sanchez bandwagon but thinks he will get discount double checked by the Packers.

My Pick = Philadelphia
Z’s Pick = Green Bay

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New England at Indianapolis (-3)

This is the Sunday night game on NBC and I’m predicting a barn burner. Take the over. It’ll be something like 38-28. The question is who comes out on top?? I try not to let my personal feelings cloud my judgment (Yoda taught me that), but it is easier said than done. Just a month ago the talking heads were sounding the death knell for Tom Brady’s career. Since then, much to my chagrin, the Patriots have reeled off 5 straight victories. Meanwhile the Colts are easily winning a division in which all three of the other teams are below .500. This is youth vs. experience and I am taking youth. Neither team’s defense is that great, but I think Colts’ QB Andrew Luck has more weapons to utilize and a more reliable running game to fall back on. Zach too has doubts about Indy’s defense and thinks Tom Brady will shred their secondary.

My Pick = Indianapolis
Z’s Pick = New England

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Florida St. (-1.5) at Miami, FL
Not that long ago this would have been the headliner. For about two decades these were two of the elite teams in college football, and whenever they met on the field, whether it was during the regular season or in a New Year’s Day bowl game, it was an event. Since then the Hurricanes have become just another middle-of-the-pack ACC football team that no one pays all that much attention to. Conversely the defending national champion Seminoles are still in the spotlight, although I am not really sure they deserve it this season. They look like a lock to make the 4 team national title playoff if they finish undefeated, but their schedule, in my humble opinion, isn’t much more inspiring than that of my alma mater Marshall, a team that may finish 13-0 but won’t get anywhere near the playoff. Most agree that Florida St. hasn’t looked impressive against that humdrum schedule, barely escaping losses to Clemson, Oklahoma St., & Notre Dame. Meanwhile, Miami has won three in a row and still has an outside shot to win their division and make it to the conference title game, but let’s be honest…this is their Super Bowl. Winning a December bowl game against another mediocre foe doesn’t have the same level of meaning in Coral Gables, FL as beating their long time arch rivals and costing them an opportunity to play for another championship. Can they pull it off?? It is interesting to me that Florida St. is favored by less than 2 points. Sure they are the visitors, but normally one would assume that being the #2 team in the country would hold more prestige. I guess the oddsmakers have watched the same Florida St. Seminoles as the rest of us and know that they are vastly overrated. Maybe I’m looking thru my rose-colored glasses again, but I’m picking the upset. Zach concurs.

My Pick = Miami, FL
Z’s Pick = Miami, FL

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South Carolina at Florida (-6.5)
Steve Spurrier returns to The Swamp. I had high hopes for the Gamecocks, picking them #4 in my pre-season poll. That is undoubtedly the biggest miscalculation I’ve made in my prognostications in 2014. South Carolina is currently 4-5 and faces an uphill battle to even become bowl eligible. Meanwhile, the Gators are a once powerful program that have been going thru some hard times. Certainly 5-3 isn’t a horrible record, but it is far from being in the national title discussion. This is another game that just a few years ago might have been a marquee matchup but will instead be a regionally televised noon game. As noted, South Carolina needs to win 2 out of their last 3 games to be invited to a bowl, and I think that will be enough motivation. Zach thinks the Gators will win the game but won’t cover the points.

My Pick = South Carolina
Z’s Pick = South Carolina

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Nebraska at Wisconsin (-6)
These are two teams that haven’t completely disappointed me, but they have underachieved. I picked both as Top 12 teams, and while the Cornhuskers sit right about where I picked them the Badgers have bounced in & out of the lower tier of the polls. This game will likely decide who plays Ohio St. in the Big Ten (which has 12 teams) championship game. Both clubs are in the top 10 in the nation in rushing, and I expect this game to showcase that. Wisconsin has the home field advantage and I believe that will hold true. Zach agrees.

My Pick = Wisconsin
Z’s Pick = Wisconsin

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Mississippi St. at Alabama (-7.5)
Will this be an elimination game when it comes to the national title playoff?? Maybe. Both teams are among the chosen 4 right now, and the loser will almost certain fall out…atleast temporarily. It’s no secret that the success of the two Mississippi schools has been a surprise to me even if everyone else seemed on board since the pre-season. I have to give the Bulldogs credit though. They have met every challenge and defeated heavy hitters like LSU, Auburn, & Texas A&M. Meanwhile, the Tide has rolled even though they haven’t been quite as dominant as usual. They were extremely fortunate to escape potential losses to Arkansas and LSU. Because I am not enamored with this new playoff system (what can I say…as a Marshall alum I am somewhat bitter) I am rooting for chaos. Ideally that’d mean a ‘Bama win here followed by them losing to either archrival Auburn or in the SEC title game (where the likely opponent would be Georgia or Missouri). If Mississippi St. wins this game then all that’d stand between them and the playoff is a season ending game against in-state rival Ole Miss and the SEC title game. I am more comfortable with the former scenario than the latter because I think Auburn has a better chance at upsetting the Tide than the Rebels beating the Bulldogs. This is how my brain works folks…like it or not. Zach, once again, is picking a team to win but not cover. He thinks ‘Bama will score the victory, but by less than a touchdown.

My Pick = Alabama
Z’s Pick = Mississippi St.

2014 NFL Preview & Prognostications

Allow me to be bluntly honest. Not that I am usually dishonest, but I am rarely blunt. At any rate, I’m not as excited as usual to do this preview. The NFL is becoming harder & harder to watch thanks to that moron Fidel Goodell. I look at professional football suits, including the league office and team front offices, kind of like I do the government. I believe they should interfere with the game as little as possible. Unfortunately nowadays, with Goodell’s “personal conduct policy” and the pathological need to make a violent collision sport “safe”, all the talking heads ever yap about (whenever they aren’t slobbering all over rookie defensive end Michael Sam, indulging Browns “backup” QB Johnny Manziel, or being offended by the Washington Redskins name) are penalties and suspensions. Defense used to win championships, but the NFL has neutered defenses to the point that they might as well not even take the field. I sincerely believe we are only a few years away from flag football. Goodell is a succubus that has almost singlehandedly ruined what was once the greatest sport and the best pro league in the world. Thanks a lot jackass. So anyway, I suppose I will move forward with this preview and I’ll watch the games. I might even enjoy myself on occasion. But it’s not the same. It never will be unless Goodell is run out office and is replaced by someone with the cahonas to reverse nearly every bad decision that has been made in the past 8 years.

NFC

East
Philadelphia Eagles
(10-6) 14-2
Dallas Cowboys
(8-8) 7-9
NY Giants
(7-9) 6-10
Washington Redskins
(3-13) 6-10
Eagles head coach Chip Kelly didn’t have quite the growing pains in his rookie season that I expected, and I believe Philly will be even better this year. The rest of this division is mediocre at best. The Cowboys defense isn’t any better than it was in 2013. The Tom Coughlin era in New York will likely end in the next couple of seasons with a whimper instead of a bang. And the Redskins backup quarterback may be better than their vastly overrated starter.

North
Green Bay Packers
(8-7-1) 13-3
Detroit Lions
(7-9) 8-8
Chicago Bears
(8-8) 7-9
Minnesota Vikings
(5-10-1) 7-9
Another mediocre division. The Packers, despite losing defensive tackle BJ Raji (to injury not free agency), should run away with the crown behind QB Aaron Rogers and RB Eddie Lacy. The Lions may show some improvement but aren’t ready to break thru just yet. Bears QB Jay Cutler is even more overrated that RGIII in Washington. And Minnesota won’t contend until they decide to let Teddy Bridgewater take the reigns as the franchise signal caller he was drafted to be and stop pussyfooting around with Matt Cassel.

South
New Orleans Saints
(11-5) 10-6
Carolina Panthers
(12-4) 10-6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(4-12) 9-7
Atlanta Falcons
(4-12) 7-9
Now we’re starting to have some fun. Until Drew Brees shows that he just can’t do it anymore he has to be considered one of the few elite quarterbacks in the league. I’d feel a little bit better if the Saints had a franchise RB (no…Mark Ingram, Khiri Robinson, & Pierre Thomas don’t count), but as long as TE Jimmie Graham is around to catch touchdowns from Brees and the defense is atleast solid the Saints must be considered the favorites. Carolina probably takes a bit of a step back this year since their all new receiving corps consists of Jerricho Cotchery, Jason Avant, & rookie Kelvin Benjamin and they lost cornerstone left tackle Jordan Gross. I look for Benjamin to grow into a big time receiver, but let’s not rush things. The brief Greg Schiano era is over in Tampa and Lovie Smith…inexplicably canned by the Chicago Bears a couple of years ago…takes over a team with a solid defense, a potentially very good receiving corps, and a decent running game. I understand why the Bucs are receiving a lot of buzz. But neither Josh McCown nor Mike Glennon inspire much confidence in the quarterback position, so until they remedy that issue Tampa can’t be considered serious contenders. I look for the Falcons to bounce back a little bit from an abysmal 2013, but this is such a tough division that I still think they draw the short straw.

West
Seattle Seahawks
(13-3) 10-6
San Francisco 49ers
(12-4) 10-6
Arizona Cardinals
(10-6) 9-7
St. Louis Rams
(7-9) 3-13
Super Bowl Champions oftentimes slip a little the following season. They have a huge target on their back, spend a little too much of the offseason in celebration mode, and tend to lose a few players to free agency who are understandably cashing in on the team’s success. Seattle is no different. However, luckily for the Seahawks their main rivals…the 49ers…are having a rough offseason with the 9 game suspension of troubled defensive tackle Aldon Smith as well as not having the services of linebacker Navorro Bowman, who tore up his knee in the NFC championship game. I like the Cardinals a lot but I’m not ready to say they are better than Seattle & ‘Frisco just yet. I might regret not venturing out on that particular limb. The Rams’ season was probably going to be forgettable anyway, but with the loss QB Sam Bradford…again…to another knee injury they are likely looking at a top 5 pick in the 2015 draft (which they’ll probably use on a quarterback to replace the disappointing Bradford).

Playoff Teams: Philadelphia, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, Carolina, San Francisco
NFC Championship: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers

AFC

East
New England Patriots
(12-4) 13-3
Buffalo Bills
(6-10) 8-8
NY Jets
(8-8) 8-8
Miami Dolphins
(8-8) 7-9
Good Lord when will the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era end?? Ateast the Patriots haven’t won a Super Bowl in awhile. But they shouldn’t have any problem winning this division. I think the Bills are headed in the right direction and we’ll find out this season if QB EJ Manuel is the real deal. The addition of rookie WR Sammy Watkins will help. Jets coach Rex Ryan did enough last year to keep his job, but I don’t believe we’ll see any improvement this year. I am sure the Geno Smith/Michael Vick battle at QB will be the dominant story all season in The Big Apple. The Dolphins are likely to remain insignificant. Don’t be surprised if head coach Joe Philbin finds himself on the hot seat by the end of the year.

North
Cincinnati Bengals
(11-5) 10-6
Baltimore Ravens
(8-8) 9-7
Pittsburgh Steelers
(8-8) 7-9
Cleveland Browns
(4-12) 6-10
As much as it breaks my heart I have to admit that I don’t have much confidence in my Pittsburgh Steelers. A quarter of their draft picks didn’t even make the team. Clearly something is amiss in the Steelers front office. I don’t think the Bengals will get very far in the playoffs but they should win the division. The Ravens are no longer a serious Super Bowl contender but they’ll be competitive. The quarterback situation in Cleveland is murky at best and I’m not at all impressed with new head coach Mike Pettine who seems ill prepared for the job.

South
Indianapolis Colts
(11-5) 12-4
Jacksonville Jaguars
(4-12) 8-8
Tennessee Titans
(7-9) 8-8
Houston Texans
(2-14) 6-10
Is Andrew Luck just an above average quarterback or is he an elite transcendent talent on par with Manning (you know which one), Brady, & Brees?? I think we’ll be better equipped to ponder that question after this season. I like the direction the Jags are headed, but they need to stop this Chad Henne silliness and make rookie Blake Bortles the starting QB. Sure he’ll make some mistakes, but he’ll also grow & learn and do some good things that Henne just doesn’t have the talent to achieve. Tennessee and Houston are treading water, although if the Texans make newly acquired QB Ryan Mallet the starter sooner rather than later they might have some potential.

West
Denver Broncos
(13-3) 11-5
San Diego Chargers
(9-7) 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs
(11-5) 9-7
Oakland Raiders
(4-12) 8-8
This is probably it for Peyton Manning. The window is closing fast. The Broncos upgraded their defense a lot this offseason and the offense should be as good or better than 2014, so anything less than a Lombardi Trophy would be a huge disappointment. The Chargers are sneaky good and could be a scary team to face in the playoffs. I think the Chiefs fall back a bit from their surprisingly successful season of last year. The Raiders will run like the wind with Maurice Jones-Drew but it won’t be enough. Look for rookie QB Derek Carr to emerge as the starter, but head coach Dennis Allen might be the first to lose his job this year.

Playoff Teams: New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Denver, Baltimore, San Diego
AFC Championship: Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts

Denver Broncos 31 GB Packers 28

Winning & Musing…..Volume 7.13

And we’re back!! After a brief summer “vacation” (during which I have traveled absolutely nowhere) the urge to write is back. There are a lot of things on the docket, but I’ll get back into the swing of things with some thoughts on sports that I have been pondering. In today’s exciting episode I begrudgingly say nice things about people I usually don’t say nice things about, put a bow on two major sports seasons, and pontificate about whatever else pops into my scattered brain. Join me…you know you want to.

Contrary to the mantra that ESPN likes to perpetuate I have not nor will I ever forget Lebron James’ “Decision” debacle. He will always reside in my own personal pantheon of sports figures I love to hate, alongside guys like Kobe Bryant, Ron Artest, Tom Brady, Jeff Gordon, anyone associated with the New York Yankees, and pretty much the entire SEC. James sold out his own hometown in just about the worst way possible, all in the name of riches in the form of NBA titles. He’s got two of them now, but I still don’t know how he sleeps at night. Yeah yeah yeah…probably quite comfortably, possibly rolling around in a bed full of cash.

I sincerely don’t have any problem with the New England Patriots signing Tim Tebow. Neither party has anything to lose, and if there is any evil genius in the universe who can figure out a way to successfully utilize Tebow’s unique skill set in the NFL it’s Bill Belichick. However, I would be shocked if the role that Tebow fills is that of primary backup quarterback.

Kudos to the Boston Celtics for hiring the much heralded Brad Stevens as their next head coach. There is a tremendous possibility that Stevens will fail spectacularly and end up back in college within a few years, but even then he’d likely end up at a big time school like Indiana, Duke (Coach K is 66 years old), or some other program much higher on the food chain than Butler. However, I think it is just as possible that Stevens will be a solid NBA head coach that leads the Celtics back to the top of the ladder someday. I happen to believe that they ended up with the better end of the bargain in the trade that sent Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, & Jason Terry (all 35 years of age or older) to the Brooklyn Nets in exchange for three 1^st round draft picks in the next five years. The Nets’ wacky Russian owner obviously wants to win right now, and that plan might work. But in 2 or 3 years it’ll be the Celtics who’ll be sitting pretty and building another great team ready to compete for championships for another decade. Will Brad Stevens be along for the ride when that happens?? I think he just might.

Congratulations to the Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks. I actually watched a bit of the NHL playoffs and find myself not being as ambivalent toward hockey as I was not all that long ago. Maybe they’ll actually succeed in making me a fan…someday.

I actually watched some of the matches at Wimbledon too. Hockey and tennis?? What is happening to me?!?!??

My Pittsburgh Pirates will either be tied for first place or one game behind the St. Louis Cardinals at the All Star break, yet I am finding it difficult to really believe. After two decades of losing I suffer from a major case of battered fan syndrome. The past two seasons as a matter of fact have seen the Buccos looking good at the halfway point only to crash & burn in the second half of the season. A friend of mind asked me if I was jumping off the bandwagon after a recent 4 game swoon, but the truth is that I haven’t really been on any bandwagon. My heart has been broken too many times…often before summer has even officially begun. But the swan dive is even more painful when it comes later in the season. I am like a person who has been in a string of bad relationships and eventually closes themselves off to the possibility of love as a defense mechanism to prevent any further heartbreak. I want to love the Pirates again, but I am just so tired of being disappointed, and from an objective point of view they really do have some weaknesses. The pitching staff is solid, but they can’t win games when their own team doesn’t score. The Pirates are scoring 3.87 runs per game (25^th in MLB) and have a team batting average of .243 (.230 with runners in scoring position). That isn’t going to cut it folks. Outside of Pedro Alvarez (.314 with 24 home runs) no one on the team seems to know how to manufacture runs. When that changes then I will start to believe.

I can’t believe I defended the evil New England Patriots even once, but now I’m going to do it again. It is not the team’s fault that TE Aaron Hernandez turned out to be a wackjob (possibly even a serial killer). Yes there was ample evidence going clear back to his University of Florida days that he was a thug, but let’s be honest…that could be said about half of the NFL. The fact is that Hernandez is a freakishly talented athlete and he was a steal for the Patriots in the 4^th round of the 2010 NFL Draft. And let’s give the suits in New England credit for cutting ties with Hernandez just minutes after he was arrested.

Oh dear Lord am I ever sick & tired of hearing about Dwight Howard. To me he is an overgrown child who hasn’t and may never live up to his potential. That having been said, I think he made the right decision to shun the Los Angeles Lakers in favor of the Houston Rockets. The Lakers are too wrapped up in their history & their brand and seem oblivious to the fact that they aren’t the Showtime team of the 1980’s any longer. They are an old team that needs a major overhaul, with a coach who is too stubborn to change his system to fit the talent he’s got and an owner who seems to be in way over his head. Not only are the Lakers not anywhere near an elite NBA team at the moment, but they aren’t even the best team in Los Angeles. Conversely the Rockets are a team on the rise. I have my doubts as to whether Dwight Howard is the piece of the puzzle who will put them over the top, but on paper it is a marriage that makes a lot of sense right now.

New England Patriots to sign Tim Tebow (blogs.nfl.com)
New England Patriots Release Aaron Hernandez (laces0ut.com)
Top-10 Most Heartbreaking Losses During the Decade of Dominance (nesportsblog.com)
Ice Cube Puts Dwight Howard On Blast For Leaving L.A. Lakers (amp.cbslocal.com)
Rockets introduce Dwight Howard in Houston (khou.com)
The Pittsburgh Pirates: From A to Z (espn.go.com)
Pirates Poor PR Aggravates Fans (zeebloggers.wordpress.com)
Brad Stevens is worth a shot for Celtics (nba.si.com)
Brad Stevens leaves Butler for Celtics job (wgnradio.com)
Brad Stevens Is Ready Too Rebuild The Boston Celtics (soshitech.com)

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 6

The old saying is that “close only counts in horseshoes & hand grenades”, and I am not a big believer in moral victories anyway. However, I must say that I came oh so close to going 4-3 last week but instead ended up 2-5. Usually I get myself in trouble when I pick with my heart instead of my head, but as it turns out picking the hated Hokies of Virginia Tech over the Cincinnati Bearcats was a bad idea. I was also very disappointed in the effort of Michigan St. RB La’veon Bell, a potential Heisman candidate who I thought would do some damage to Ohio St. but was instead held to a paltry 45 yards in a loss. And maybe it’s time to jump on board the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon. Of course as soon as I do that they’ll start to look like…well…the Minnesota Vikings. At any rate, for the season I am at 13-24, a deficit that cannot be made up in one week. In other words, I am like a football team that is down atleast two scores. But since I am more of a ground & pound guy instead of a run & shoot aficionado I’ll just hunker down, grind it out, and dig out of the hole one week at a time.

Arizona at Stanford (-9.5)

Stanford wasn’t even on my radar at the beginning of the season. I just figured that they’d fade a bit after losing QB Andrew Luck and a few other pieces to the NFL. Instead they have gone 3-1, complete with a victory over media darling USC. They stumbled last week at Washington, but I will assume that was just a hangover loss after the high of defeating the Trojans in the previous game. I also looked over Arizona from the outset because it usually takes Fraudriguez a couple of years to install his offensive scheme. However, the Wildcats have looked more than decent thus far in compiling a 3-2 record. This game marks the halfway point of a murderer’s row of 6 straight ranked opponents for Arizona, and I think maybe now we’ll see what we usually see in inaugural Fraudriguez seasons. Stanford may possibly be looking ahead to a matchup at Notre Dame next week, but otherwise they hold all the cards here so I am picking them to win and cover.

Navy at Air Force (-8.5)

I really like watching the service academies play football. Maybe it’s the fact that they aren’t the big, athletic NFL prospects that we see on so many other teams. They are legitimate student athletes who retain the essence of what amateur sports should be. Or maybe it is the knowledge that these young men truly have a higher purpose and will all go on to do something meaningful and, to varying degrees, heroic with their lives. And I suppose it has a lot to do with the old-fashioned style of football played. Navy is 1-3 and among the top 25 rushing teams in the nation. Of course they rank near the bottom in passing yards & points scored, so I guess they need to mix it up a little more. Air Force leads the nation in rushing and is near the bottom of the barrel in passing yards, but they are averaging 37 points per game. Their defense has really let them down though, so they are only 2-2. I expect to see lots of running here, and probably a high score. I’ll take the Falcons to get the victory and cover the spread.

LSU (-2.5) at Florida

I have picked two favorites thus far. Will the trend continue??

In my pre-season Top 25 I put the Bayou Bengals at #17 with the logic that they have a target on their backs and opponents will be especially psyched to take them down. That has been true so far…kind of. LSU is 5-0 and ranked 4^th in the polls, but they have slipped a spot each of the past two weeks after lackluster victories over Auburn and Towson. A subpar effort won’t cut it this week though against the 10^th ranked 4-0 Gators, who have been impressive in wins over Texas A&M, Tennessee, & Kentucky. So this looks like a contest of two undefeated & highly ranked teams that are going in opposite directions…one on the rise, and the other on the verge of being knocked down a peg or two. The boys in Vegas apparently didn’t get that memo since they have made LSU slight favorites even though they are venturing into decidedly unfriendly territory at The Swap. I think that is the difference here. I just can’t have much faith in a team that struggles to beat Towson and is now faced with the daunting task of playing a Top 10 team in one of the most…spirited…venues in college football. Florida gets the upset.

Georgia at South Carolina (-1.5)

I suppose it isn’t all that shocking that we get the pleasure of seeing two SEC teams face one other who happen to be 2 of the top 6 teams in the country. The ESPN Gameday crew will be in Columbia slobbering all over themselves and fellatiating the SEC, but as much as I hate to say it the praise has been earned. Both teams come into this game undefeated and in the hunt for a national championship, but at the end of the day one of them will pretty much out of the running. The Gamecocks are slim favorites only because of the home field advantage. I picked South Carolina #3 in my preseason rankings, while I left the Bulldogs off the board entirely. The latter may have been a mistake, and this game will decide if the former was an egregious error as well. I don’t think it was. I stand behind my choice and will go with South Carolina here.

Denver at New England (-6.5)

Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. That’s enough to sell this matchup. Brady leads the rivalry 8-4, and unfortunately I think he’ll extend the lead this week. I picked both of these teams to make the playoffs and the Patriots to make The Super Bowl. At this point I am not ready to back off of either prediction, but will say that both teams have looked much more…ordinary…than I thought they would. That being said, I think right now New England is a more complete team and Manning is still knocking off some rust. It makes me physically ill to pick the Patriots, but I think they’ll win and cover.

Buffalo at San Francisco (-9.5)

Who would have thought at this stage that the 49ers would NOT be in 1^st place in their division?? Though they are 3-1 they are behind the undefeated Arizona Cardinals (although as I write this it looks like the Cardinals are going to lose their game). A stunning defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings left the football world abuzz, but I think it is much ado about nothing. If anything it just means that the Vikings are a lot better than we thought, but it almost certainly doesn’t indicate that San Francisco won’t be as awesome the remainder of the season as most of us believed they would. Buffalo currently sits in a 2-2 logjam in the AFC East and needs to do anything possibly to keep pace with the aforementioned Patriots, who are undoubtedly better than their record. I think this will be a defensive struggle, and the spread makes me a little nervous. San Francisco should win, but by how much?? Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent at best, but has occasional flashes of being an actual NFL quarterback. Will he have a good week?? Word on the street is that both of Buffalo’s banged up running backs…Fred Jackson & CJ Spiller…will be ready to go for this game, but I’m not sure how much that’ll help against San Francisco’s stout run defense. I guess it can’t hurt, right?? But I really think it comes down to the play of Fitzpatrick. My vibes are telling me that Buffalo will study the SF/Minnesota game film and figure out a way to atleast keep this close, so I am picking the Bills.

San Diego at New Orleans (-4)

Anyone who read my NFL Preview might recall that I said “I do not believe that a team can go through the turmoil that the Saints have experienced this offseason and not be affected.” That might be the wisest prognostication I’ve made all season. But not even I thought they’d start the year 0-4. Will they drop to 0-5?? I also predicted that the Chargers would go 6-10 and said that “the party is over in San Diego and head coach Norv Turner will soon be enjoying an early retirement”. That hasn’t been so accurate thus far, as the Chargers are 3-1 and in 1^st place. Are these trends solid or just a mirage?? I’ll go with the latter. I don’t think New Orleans is THIS bad, nor do I believe San Diego is that good. I think the Saints win & cover here, and I still think they can make it to the playoffs.

Power Rankings Round-Up: Onward And Upward For Minnesota (dailynorseman.com)
Minnesota Vikings: Are the Vikings Playoff Contenders or Overachievers in 2012? (bleacherreport.com)
NFL First Quarter Report Card: Minnesota Vikings (thepigskinreport.com)
Fantasy Football: Week 5 – Survivor Pool and Thursday Night Injury Preview (districtsportspage.com)
Percy Harvin Named NFC Special Teams Player of the Month (thevikingage.com)
College Football Rankings: LSU and Teams that Don’t Deserve Current Rankings (bleacherreport.com)
LSU vs. Florida: Latest Spread Info, BCS Impact and Predictions (bleacherreport.com)
2012 NCAA Football Rankings: LSU ranks 4th, Texas rises to 10th in BlogPoll (houston.sbnation.com)
Taylor’s Tuesday Top 25, College and Pro Picks (charlotte.cbslocal.com)

Winning & Musing…..Volume 2.12

It’s the Super Bowl Edition!!!!

My Super Bowl XLVI (that’s 46 for those of you in McDowell County WV) prediction…

NY Giants – 31 New England Patriots – 30

Giants’ RB Ahmad Bradshaw will be the MVP. The commercials will suck. Kelly Clarkson will not screw up the anthem like Christina Aguilera did last year. I will not watch that old ho Madonna’s halftime show. NBC will find a way to have Tim Tebow be a part of the pre-game coverage.

I just can’t get caught up in all the manufactured hoopla surrounding National Signing Day or anything involving college recruiting. How many 5 star athletes have gone to a big time school only to never be heard from again?? Conversely, how many completely overlooked players have gone on to win national championships, all kinds of awards, and play at a high level in the pros?? I am completely against putting any 18 year old kid on a pedestal and making them a superstar before they’ve accomplished anything significant.

At first glance the hiring of (now former) Rutgers coach Greg Schiano to be the head man for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seems odd & out of left field. But it’s just as possible that it will turn out to be an inspired choice. The other options for Tampa were retreads like former Packers and Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman or Brad Childress, who was a total failure as coach of the Minnesota Vikings. Personally I’m a fan of giving a fresh face the opportunity. Worst case scenario?? Schiano is a bust who goes back to the ranks of college coaching three years from now and the Bucs have to go thru the same process again. However, I think there just might be a chance that this marriage works out quite nicely.

Conversely…

Good call by Florida International coach Mario Cristobal NOT to bolt The Sunshine State for Rutgers as Schiano’s replacement. At best it would have been a lateral move, and actually I think it would have been a step down. Just sit tight Coach Cristobal…you’re shot at a big time opportunity will come.

Speaking of head coaches…

I’m willing to bet that most Lakers fans would agree with me when I say that the hiring of head coach Mike Brown looks like it may have been a mistake.

I mentioned earlier that I will not be watching Madonna’s Super Bowl halftime performance. She has just never frosted my cupcake, even when she was young & hot. Anyway, I am a solutions oriented kind of guy, so I would like to suggest some ideas for future Super Bowl halftime shows:

Van Halen

Journey

George Clinton & Parliament Funkadelic

Genesis

Toby Keith

Billy Joel

Lynyrd Skynyrd

Bon Jovi

Garth Brooks

Metallica

Duran Duran

Carrie Underwood

White Stripes

Guns n’ Roses

You’re welcome.

Age, financial issues, and various other concerns really do seem to be converging in Pittsburgh. I hope I’m wrong, but it seems more than possible that the Steelers may be entering one of those down cycles that can cripple a franchise for 3-5 years.

I will admit that I have been rather disdainful of NY Giants QB Eli Manning in the past. He just kind of seemed like a nerdy little milquetoast riding the coattails of his famous family. But he has won me over. Is he in the same league as his more famous & more talented older brother Peyton?? I can’t go quite that far just yet. However, he has finally cemented his spot as one of the elite signal callers in the NFL and taken his rightful place alongside fellow 2004 1^st Round picks Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Larry Fitzgerald, Vince Wilfork, and Steven Jackson as examples of “getting it right” (as opposed to ’04 top picks like Robert Gallery, JP Losman, Roy Williams, and Chris Perry…yikes).

Kyle Flood Replaces Greg Schiano As Rutgers’ Head Football Coach (tracking.si.com)
Cristobal: ‘Best recruiting class’ kept him at FIU (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
Whether Schiano will succeed as an NFL coach still to be determined (cbssports.com)
Buccaneers introduce Rutgers’ Schiano as new head coach (tsn.ca)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Why Greg Schiano Hiring Is so Surprising (bleacherreport.com)
Buccaneers Introduce Rutgers’ Schiano As New Coach (tampa.cbslocal.com)
Source: Rutgers interim Flood will replace Schiano (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
Buccaneers introduce Schiano, cite ‘new vision’ (espn.go.com)
Buccaneers introduce Rutgers’ Schiano as new coach (seattletimes.nwsource.com)
Rutgers Closing In On FIU’s Mario Cristobal (newyork.cbslocal.com)

Winning & Musing…..Volume 7.11

It’s my favorite season of the year…football season!! So I have some thoughts on the college game as well as way too early first impressions about the NFL.

Is it my imagination or has the NFL had an above average amount of serious, season ending injuries thus far?? I have no numbers to back up the supposition and am far too indolent to do the needed research, but that is my notion. Maybe it is because I have had 4 players from my dynasty fantasy league (RBs Jamaal Charles, Mikel Leshoure, & Ryan Williams plus kicker Nate Kaeding) suffer that fate, which has all but killed my chances in that league.

Teams that are better than I thought: Washington Redskins – maybe I underrated QB Rex Grossman a bit. Buffalo Bills – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was underrated by e-v-e-r-y-o-n-e.

I assume the Miami Dolphins will still draft a quarterback in 2012, but so far Chad Henne hasn’t been all that bad.

Kudos to rookie QB Cam Newton, whose NFL viability some (including yours truly) have questioned. Even though the Carolina Panthers are 0-2 Newton has thrown for a ton of yards and looked very much like he can hang with the big boys. Sure he’s made the normal rookie mistakes, and those errors may have even cost his team victories, but that’s not necessarily unexpected when a young quarterback is thrown into the deep end and told to swim. The bottom line is that that Newton looks like he belongs and might become scary good if a decent team is ever built around him.

I detest the New England Patriots, but I have to give the devil its due…that is one heck of an offense. There isn’t a top tier receiver or running back on the roster but somehow Tom Brady still puts up Dan Marino-esque numbers. And when have we ever seen a team with two tight ends that are such lethal weapons??

Teams that haven’t lived up to expectations: St. Louis Rams – I may have had their breakthrough predicted a year or two too early. Philadelphia Eagles – they certainly haven’t looked like a Dream Team.

More kudos to the Detroit Lions, who are making believers out of those who hadn’t already jumped on the bandwagon. This is a team that went winless just three years ago and now might actually contend for a playoff spot. They’ve done it the right way, by building around a talented franchise quarterback and concentrating on constructing what one day soon might be a wicked awesome defense. Did I just say “wicked awesome”?? Yes, I did.

Early leaders in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes: Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, and…something I never thought I’d say…the Indianapolis Colts. How wild would it be if the Colts are in a position to grab Luck just as the storied career of Peyton Manning winds down to its inevitable conclusion??

I don’t even know what to say about the mess that is college football and all its conference realignment/expansion wackiness. The first thing to come to mind is “Go to Hell” to Pitt & Syracuse for leaving the Big East hanging, the SEC & ACC for having no respect at all for my WV Mountaineers, and the “leadership” in the Big East who have stood around with their thumbs up their asses watching it all happen. But beyond my own personal biases I am just sad to see such a wonderful on-the-field product fragmented by a bunch of suits with dollar signs in their eyes and no reverence for the one thing that elevates college football head & shoulders above every other sport…tradition. Do I want to see a “rivalry” between Cincinnati and Kansas St.?? No, not really. Does it make any sense for Texas A&M to abandon annual battles with Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech to play Vanderbilt or Kentucky?? Not at all. Look, I’m not dumb…I understand the business part of all this. I realize that these suits are looking mainly at population and television markets. But I am just a guy whose lone enjoyment in the dank & dreary chill of autumn is to spend my weekends watching hours & hours of football. I want that football to be competitive, entertaining, and meaningful in that unspoken yet understood way in which we know that Michigan-Ohio St., USC-Notre Dame, The Backyard Brawl, The Border War, The Red River Rivalry, The Battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe, The Iron Bowl, The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, and Bedlam are significant just because they are. The fact that these annual rituals are being imploded by a bunch of pointy headed bean counters that probably don’t know a Horned Frog from a Hoosier or the difference between a Golden Flash and a Golden Hurricane should embarrass the hell out of the ineffective and neutered people that supposedly run the NCAA.

Cam Newton: How the Rookie QB’s First 2 Starts Compare to Legendary QBs (bleacherreport.com)
Fantasy Football Week 3 Rankings: 4 Available Top QBs (bleacherreport.com)
NFL Picks Week 3: Predicting the Outcome of Every Game This Weekend (bleacherreport.com)
Surpassing Numbers From Tom Brady and Cam Newton (fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com)
2011 NFL Week Two: 5 Surprises You Never Thought You Would See (bleacherreport.com)
NFL Roundtable: Week 2 recap (cbc.ca)
NFL Predictions: Quarterback Props Betting for Week 2 (bleacherreport.com)
Don Banks: Bills show perseverance, Newton’s big follow-up, more Snaps (sportsillustrated.cnn.com)
Newton shines in NFL debut; Colts and Steelers lose (canada.com)
WHAT I THINK I LEARNED FROM THE NFL THIS WEEK: Week 2 (couchsportsexpert.wordpress.com)

2011 NFL Preview & Prognostications

After the long national nightmare that was the NFL Lockout it is a huge relief to football fans everywhere that a crisis was averted and the only casualty was the traditional Hall of Fame game. It’s going to be fascinating to see which teams can weather the storm of having virtually none of the usual offseason prep time, and if any rookies successfully overcome the extremely short learning curve. Teams with new coaches (San Francisco, Carolina, Cleveland, Denver, Minnesota, Oakland, and Tennessee) are likely to struggle, and no one should expect any significant contributions from their first year players. At any rate, as always, I do not encourage any wagering based on my “insight” and freely admit my expertise in these matters is strictly based on 3 decades as a fan, my vibes, and whatever The Voices tell me. Each team’s 2010 record is in parentheses, followed by my prediction for how they’ll do this season.

AFC East

New England Patriots (14-2) 13-3

New York Jets (11-5) 10-6

Buffalo Bills (4-12) 6-10

Miami Dolphins (7-9) 5-11

The Patriots’ window is beginning to close (QB Tom Brady is 34 years old), but they should kick ass for another 2 or 3 years anyway. It will be interesting to see how the acquisitions of WR Chad Johnson (I refuse to call him that other silly, made up name) and defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth pan out. The Jets are more bluster & hype than anything, and no matter what load of bull the talking heads at ESPN try to sell you replacing WR Braylon Edwards with Plaxico “Bullets” Burress is like trading in a 2009 Camaro for a 1995 Nissan. QB issues in Buffalo & Miami must be addressed before they can get back on the road to respectability.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (12-4) 11-5

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) 11-5

Cleveland Browns (5-11) 7-9

Cincinnati Bengals (4-12) 1-15

As a lifelong Steelers fan I am more than a bit concerned that they did virtually nothing to address shortcomings at the CB position this offseason. I think the Ravens take the division & the Steelers secure a wild card. I really like QB Colt McCoy, but the Browns aren’t quite ready to “make a statement” just yet. The Bungles are a complete mess after the unexpected “retirement” of QB Carson Palmer, but on the bright side look to be the early leaders in the Andrew Luck Sweepstakes.

AFC South

Houston Texans (6-10) 9-7

Indianapolis Colts (10-6) 9-7

Tennessee Titans (6-10) 8-8

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) 6-10

I have been commenting on the inevitable slow decline of the Colts the past two years, and we’ll really see it in 2011. Major health questions about Indy QB Peyton Manning will open the door for the Texans to finally break through after having addressed concerns about their lackluster pass defense in the offseason (unlike the Steelers). Jacksonville has to have atleast one, preferably two, receivers emerge from the potpourri of journeymen currently on the roster to relieve the pressure on tailback Maurice Jones-Drew. Tennessee has a similar issue…a need to improve the passing attack so defenses can’t just stack the line to stop speedy RB Chris Johnson.

AFC West

San Diego Chargers (9-7) 11-5

Oakland Raiders (8-8) 8-8

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) 8-8

Denver Broncos (4-12) 3-13

It’s now or never for the Chargers. With a rumored move to Los Angeles on the horizon I believe they will finally fulfill the potential they seem to have had for several years. I think the Chiefs take a bit of a step back in 2011, and the neverending QB brouhaha in Denver won’t help their cause. For what it’s worth…my two cents is that Tim Tebow is not an NFL quarterback and never will be.

Playoff Teams – New England, Baltimore, Houston, San Diego, NY Jets, Pittsburgh

AFC Champion – San Diego

The Patriots, Jets, Steelers, & Ravens will get all the buzz, but I’m predicting it’ll be the San Diego Chargers who will represent the AFC in The Super Bowl.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) 12-4

Dallas Cowboys (6-10) 9-7

New York Giants (10-6) 5-12

Washington Redskins (6-10) 4-11

Things in Irving, TX have been strangely quiet this summer – none of the usual salivating and hyperbole over how great the Cowboys will supposedly be. I believe that will turn out to be a good thing. The hype machine has instead been relocated to Philly, where every available free agent seems to have landed. Unlike their counterparts in Big D I think the Eagles will live up to expectations…until they get to the playoffs. Redskins fans are still waiting on coach Mike Shanahan to work his magic but have to be suspicious that the real Shanahan has been replaced by some sort of clone with the IQ of Forrest Gump or President Obama’s economic advisors. John Beck & Rex Grossman are your top 2 QBS?? Really?? And yes, I don’t think the NY Giants will be nearly as good as most others seem to think they will.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (10-6) 14-2

Detroit Lions (6-10) 10-6

Chicago Bears (11-5) 9-7

Minnesota Vikings (6-10) 8-8

One must realize that the Green Bay Packers won The Super Bowl with about half their team on injured reserve. This leads me to believe they will be even better in 2011…until they get to the playoffs. Detroit is the trendy pick to make the leap from pretender to contender, and I agree. I have maintained for years (just like my pal Rush Limbaugh) that QB Donovan McNabb is overrated, so don’t look for major improvement from the Vikings.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6) 12-4

New Orleans Saints (11-5) 8-8

Atlanta Falcons (13-3) 8-8

Carolina Panthers (2-14) 3-13

The Falcons traditionally have problems putting together back-to-back great seasons, so look for a dropoff in Hotlanta, as well as N’awleans. It doesn’t matter whether rookie QB Cam Newton is handed the starting job or 2^nd year signal caller Jimmy Clausen holds on, the Panthers will still be bad. Wouldn’t it be hilarious if they ended up in a situation where they have the chance…even with those two guys on the roster…to draft Stanford QB Andrew Luck?? Fortunately I think the Bengals will solve that problem. So that leaves the TB Bucs to continue their improvement under the leadership of young quarterback Josh Freeman and be a surprising championship contender.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (5-11) 10-6

St. Louis Rams (7-9) 9-7

San Francisco 49ers (6-10) 8-8

Seattle Seahawks (7-9) 6-10

I’m sold on new Cardinals QB Kevin Kolb. I also like Rams field general Sam Bradford but don’t believe he has enough reliable weapons yet. New 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh will acquit himself quite well in his inaugural season, but is likely to figure out that Alex Smith is not the long term answer under center. I wasn’t enamored with any of the offseason moves in Seattle. QB Tarvaris Jackson makes Alex Smith look like Roger Staubach.

Playoff teams – Philadelphia, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Dallas, Detroit

NFC Champion – Tampa Bay

Many are already drooling about a potential Eagles-Packers championship game, but I believe one of those teams will stumble early in the playoffs and the other will fall in the title contest to the Bucs.

2012 Draft Lottery

1 Cincinnati Bengals QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

2 Denver Broncos QB Landry Jones (Oklahoma)

3 Carolina Panthers WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina)

4 Washington Redskins QB Matt Barkley (Southern Cal)

5 NY Giants WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma St.)

NFL Preseason: Tim Tebow and 10 Surprising Preseason Trends (bleacherreport.com)
Taking Stock of the Washington Redskins After 2 Preseason Games (bleacherreport.com)
2011 AFC Preview (inurbase.wordpress.com)
NFL Season 2011: Regular Season Predictions (bleacherreport.com)
Super Bowl Chances: The Top 10 Contenders in 2011 (bleacherreport.com)
5 Questions the Cheargers Need to Answer After the Preseason (bleacherreport.com)
Redskins coach praises Beck; no starter named (espn.go.com)
Predicting Every Opening Weekend Game in the NFL (bleacherreport.com)
10 Great Plays from San Diego Chargers Who Were Unceremoniously Dumped (bleacherreport.com)
NFL Schedule 2011: Predicting the 10 Biggest Upsets of the Football Season (bleacherreport.com)

2009 NFL Preview – AFC

The word for this year’s NFL season is parity. Yes…..I realize that’s not an original thought. You hear it dozens of times from all the talking heads on ESPN, CBS, Fox, and NBC…..your friendly neighborhood purveyors of NFL action. But honest to God I really believe it to be the case this year. There are a few teams (Cleveland, Kansas City, Detroit) that continue to wallow in the land of dreadful despite all the usual machinations such as new coaches and noteworthy free agent signings or trades. And there are a few elite teams (Pittsburgh and the New York Giants for example) that continue to ride the tasty wave of success with no signs of decline. But the vast majority of the league seems to be atop a high wire, where a key injury or bad move by the coach will dictate the fickle difference between 7-9 and 11-5 but no amount of tinkering will make them neither elite nor awful. It’s one of the reasons we love the NFL…..it’s unpredictable and somewhat random. That being said, here’s my take on how we might see the season unfold. As always…please, no wagering. I don’t claim to actually be good at this.

We’ll take a look at the AFC first, and then I will post a look at the NFC in a few days:

AFC EAST

Miami Dolphins 11-5

Bill Parcells is large and in charge. And his head coach Tony Sparano seems like a true disciple. That’s a good thing. There’s a sense of stability in Miami that hasn’t been present for awhile, and in the NFL stability is usually a positive trait. The big question will be whether or not The Wildcat offense is something the rest of the league has figured out, or if the Dolphins can add enough new twists to keep it fresh.

New York Jets 10-6

The Jets are on the right path. I have a good feeling about rookie QB Mark Sanchez. Sure he’ll have some growing pains, but he can’t be any worse than what the departed Bret Favre was the second half of last season. New coach Rex Ryan is a defensive guru, so that side of the ball should see improvement.

New England Patriots 10-6

I can’t explain it, but I just sense the magic slipping away in Foxboro. I’m not convinced that Tom Brady is as healthy as desired, and a running attack featuring a three headed monster of Laurence Maroney, BenJarvis Green, and Fred Taylor just isn’t that overwhelming. I’m not saying New England will be a bad team, but I think they are in for much more of a dogfight in their division than most folks seem to believe.

Buffalo Bills 4-12

No, I do not think that Terrell Owens is the savior this team needs. Though he’s been quiet thus far it is likely only a matter of time before he becomes the divisive force he’s been everywhere he’s played. Unfortunately for the Bills they are not in a position of strength where they can withstand such distractions. Dallas and Philadelphia thrived despite T.O.’s antics. Buffalo will not. Plus, this division is just too tough. The Bills may be looking at 6 losses just within their own division, and then they have games against Tennessee, Atlanta, and Indianapolis. Dick Jauron is a decent coach with the misfortune of being hired by subpar teams. Time to update the resume again Dick.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis Colts 10-6

The Colts, much like the Patriots, have been the cream of the crop for a long time. Did you realize that Peyton Manning is 33 years old and a veteran of 11 years?? Chinks in the armor have slowly developed over the past couple of years, but they have merely downgraded Indy from elite status to extremely good. And some of these emerging concerns aren’t so much a function of this team getting worse, but a recognition of other teams’ improvement. This division used to be Indy’s for the taking, but it has gotten quite competitive. The Colts have a new coach and Marvin Harrison isn’t around for Manning to throw to anymore. However, at the end of the day I still feel like no one is up to the task of dethroning the kings just yet…..until they get to the playoffs of course.

Tennessee Titans 10-6

Speaking of dethroning, Tennessee did do exactly that last year to the Colts. But I don’t believe they can pull off another 13-3 season. The defense is always above average, but the loss of DT Albert Haynesworth in free agency will have an impact. On offense the question is whether Kerry Collins, who up until last season had the aura of career backup, can continue his magic carpet ride. And what about Vince Young?? He all the sudden became a headcase in 2008 which is what allowed Collins to emerge as a star. The running attack is solid with the fleet of foot Chris Johnson and the bruising (and apparently sober) Lendale White. Whomever ends up being the QB has a few folks to throw to now thanks to the additions of free agent WR Nate Washington and first round choice Kenny Britt.

Houston Texans 9-7

I keep waiting on the Texans to break through, but they continue to be just so-so with occasional flashes of potential. I’m not sure Matt Schaub is the answer at QB, and another receiver is needed so defenses can’t just key on Andre Johnson. Steve Slaton proved all the talking heads who said he wasn’t feature back material wrong, but I do believe the running game would benefit from adding a big battering ram for goal line and short yardage situations. Defensively this team just seems to be missing a piece or two. Being in the same division as Indianapolis and Tennessee doesn’t help matters, but that’s out of anyone’s control. The best game plan in Houston might be to sit tight and continue to improve one player at a time until that inevitable day when Peyton Manning retires.

Jacksonville Jaguars 7-9

I think the Jags will be slightly better than last season, but not much. The team took significant steps to improve the offensive line, and I’m of the opinion that that is the vital foundation of any good football team. RB Fred Taylor absconded to New England in a desperate attempt to win a ring, so Maurice Jones-Drew (some people call him The Space Cowboy, some call him The Gangster of Love) is the man now, and that’s probably a good thing. Veteran wideout Torry Holt will bolster the receiving corps along with a seemingly rejuvenated Troy Williamson who is determined to shed the “bust” label with which he has been saddled. There are two threads on which Jacksonville’s season hangs. The first is the defense. They are usually among the league’s best, but dropped off noticeably in 2008. The other is QB David Garrard. Once upon a time Garrard had a Randall Cunningham vibe. Last year it was more like Richie Cunningham. Nothing has happened this offseason to make me believe a momentous turnaround is on the horizon.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers 11-5

Full disclosure…..I am a lifelong diehard Steeler fanatic. Admittedly it is hard for me to be completely objective when talking about my team. But I’m going to give it the old college try and leave it up to the reader’s discretion as to whether I’m on point or completely delusional. The Steelers are the defending Super Bowl Champions…..but let’s look deeper. They won last year despite having what was almost unanimously regarded as the league’s toughest schedule. They won despite both star RB Willie Parker and first round draft choice Rashard Mendenhall having major injuries and having to rely on third string RB Mewelde Moore. They won despite having an offensive line that no one was expecting to be very solid. So, extrapolating some logic from those statements, one could possibly surmise that with an easier schedule, both top runners healthy, and an offensive line that gelled better than anyone expected and now has an extra year of experience the Steelers might be even better in 2009. But not even I am willing to go that far. Defending Super Bowl champions haven’t had much luck the past decade or so, and this team did suffer some personnel losses. Will Limas Sweed validate being a high draft choice last year by stepping into the 3^rd receiver role vacated by Nate Washington?? Will free agent signee Keiwan Ratliff be a suitable replacement for departed cornerback Bryant McFadden?? I’m not sure about the answers to those questions right now. Plus, the target is bigger than ever and one team in particular, the hated Ravens, will be gunning for the champs. But I get the sense that Mike Tomlin won’t let his team become unfocused, so to be honest I’m not all that concerned. I am predicting another banner year for the black n’ gold.

Baltimore Ravens 10-6

The Ravens were oh-so-close last year. It’s rare when an 11-5 record doesn’t lock up a division title. QB Joe Flacco had a surprisingly proficient rookie season and the defense was as intimidating as everyone has come to expect. I don’t expect much of a drop off this year. It will be interesting to see how the departure of defensive coordinator Rex Ryan (the new head coach of the New York Jets) affects the chemistry. My guess is not much, atleast not in any measurable dynamic. I suppose a sophomore slump is possible for Flacco, but it is unlikely. Ray Lewis isn’t getting any younger, but he’s still got a couple great years in the tank. In almost any other division in the league Baltimore would be a runaway choice to come out on top. They just have the misfortune of playing in the same division with the only defense better than theirs.

Cincinnati Bengals 8-8

A lot of folks derisively call them The Bungles, and it is a richly deserved bad reputation. They’ve had a lot of issues both on and off the field. Carson Palmer is theoretically healthy and fully recovered from past injuries which should help tremendously. Still, questions…and doubts…abound. I personally don’t believe that Laverneous Coles is an upgrade or even an even swap for departed receiver TJ Houshmandzadeh, and when your team is relying on underachieving Cedric Benson to carry the rushing load that’s a bad sign. The team drafted an OT with the 6^th overall pick in the draft, but first he held out until late in the pre-season and then he broke his foot in practice, so there goes that idea. Long removed from the Super Bowl hay days of Boomer Esiason, Chris Collinsworth, and Icky Woods, the modern day Bengals just seem snakebitten. I really like coach Marvin Lewis, who had much success as a defensive coach in Pittsburgh, Washington, and most notably Baltimore. But I’m not sure even the re-animated corpses of Vince Lombardi and Tom Landry combined could polish this turd. It’s a testament to the talent of Palmer (and having Oakland, Kansas City, Detroit, and Cleveland – twice, on the schedule) that I’m even predicting a .500 finish.

Cleveland Browns 6-10

I’m a Steelers fan so I hate the Browns, but I missed them when they were gone from the league for a few years. I was glad when they were reborn. But holy cow have they been dreadful since that triumphant return. They just can’t seem to find even a glimmer of hope, a small buoy in a raging sea of mediocrity. Atleast the Bengals have Palmer. The Browns pinned all their hopes a couple years ago on Notre Dame alumnus Brady Quinn. I never thought Quinn was that good even in college, and he hasn’t been good enough to seize the reins for the Browns. If you aren’t good enough to be the clear cut starting QB for such a bad team then you aren’t good enough period. New head coach Eric Mangini is a Bill Belichick disciple, which has been proven to mean diddly squat. Former Browns coach Romeo Crennel was a Belichick guy too, and that didn’t work well at all. Mangini himself was run out of New York, although I think maybe the Jets pulled the trigger a bit prematurely. Maybe some guys are meant to be really well respected coordinators and aren’t necessarily head coach material. Being in the same division with the Steelers and Ravens is just brutal.

AFC WEST

San Diego Chargers 14-2

Predicting the best record in the NFL for San Diego is as much about the atrocious division they play in than anything else. There are probably even a handful of college teams that could beat the three other teams in this division this season. San Diego has been a rather good team the past few seasons, and I don’t expect that to change. Yes, Ladainian Tomlinson has lost a step. But that’s like saying it’d take Mike Tyson 5 rounds to knock out Michael Spinks rather than the 1 round it took him 20 years ago. So what?? Shawne Merriman should be fully healthy now, so the defense will be better than it was in 2008. Philip Rivers just signed a fat contract, which might make him lazier but instead I believe it’ll make him relaxed and more effective. Vincent Jackson needs to step up and be the go to receiver many have thought him capable of being, and big time TE Antonio Gates needs to stay healthy. I truly believe that last year’s 8-8 season was a mirage, a one time off year that can be attributed to injuries to a few key players. That is unlikely to happen two straight seasons.

Denver Broncos 8-8

The Josh McDaniels era hasn’t exactly gotten off to a rousing start…..and they haven’t even played a game yet. McDaniels is another of the aformentioned branches on the Belichick coaching tree, one that hasn’t proven very fruitful thus far. I don’t think this guy is going to change that fact. The whole Jay Cutler debacle was an inauspicious launch for the new regime, and even though Cutler undoubtedly acted like a petulant child the blame must be shared by coach McDaniels. I understand wanting “your guy” as a new coach. I get it. But it wasn’t as if Cutler was a bad quarterback. It’s not even like the Broncos were a bad team. They were 8-5 last year and then lost the final 3 games. If they would have won the last game they would have been in the playoffs. The biggest issue was the defense, which ranked near the bottom in most categories. The coach obviously miscalculated what bringing in QB Matt Cassel, whom he had worked with in New England, would do to Cutler’s psyche. Cassel didn’t even end up with the Broncos, but that didn’t matter. The damage was done and Cutler whined his way out of Denver and into a pretty decent gig with Chicago. The Broncos?? Well…they ended up with Kyle Orton. It’s akin to having Russell Crowe lined up to star in your new movie but he drops out and you end up with Keanu Reeves. This will not end well. They did draft what most considered the top RB in the draft in Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno, and he’ll be backed up by Correll Buckhalter and Lamont Jordan. Not a flashy running attack but it should be effective. I atleast like this trifecta more than New England’s. Some pieces were added on defense thru the draft and free agency, but I don’t see any real difference makers. In 2008 the Broncos finished with a .500 record, and I’m generously predicting the same record in 2009, which begs the question…why exactly did they fire Mike Shanahan??

Oakland Raiders 5-11

Al Davis is still alive and kicking, and that is bad news for the once mighty Raiders. Seriously, what has happened to this team?? It is one of the premiere franchises in the NFL…..infamous, successful, bold. But the aging and apparently crazy Davis has turned them into a laughing stock. The man is 80 years old. Someone needs to make him retire. I’m just not impressed by anything the Raiders have to offer. They have a new coach. Whatever. They have Jamarcus Russell as the QB of the future and brought in Jeff Garcia to be a mentor and capable backup. Sorry…..still doesn’t stir anything within my soul. Even Darren McFadden is an overhyped RB who’ll get you 2 yards but just look flashier doing it than most other backs. They didn’t draft anyone inspiring either. It’s just more of the same from a team that seems to have no direction.

Kansas City Chiefs 3-13

Speaking of no direction, that brings us to the Chiefs. All you need to know about this team is that their new head coach is apparently going to attempt to be the quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator too. The man is clearly a control freak and in over his head. The jury is still out on Matt Cassel, the newly acquired starting QB. Cassel wasn’t even a starter in college at USC, where he backed up both Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart. Last season he got his opportunity with the Patriots after Tom Brady went down with a knee injury. I get the fact that almost anyone is an upgrade over Brodie Croyle and Tyler Thigpen, but the fact is that we are talking about a guy who shined for only one season and that happened to be with one of the best supporting casts in football. The road to hell is paved with the short lived careers of football players who were really good for a year or two. Running back Larry Johnson has seen his production dramatically curtailed the past two seasons, and he is on the threshold of 30, the age when rushers traditionally begin a steep decline. Perennial all-pro tight end Tony Gonzalez got tired of losing and demanded a trade, so he’s now in Atlanta with the Falcons. There just isn’t much good news for the Chiefs. If Cassel proves himself more than just a one year wonder, and if Johnson has a career renaissance or possibly Jamaal Charles steps into that spot and breaks out, then maybe this team can do better than last season. But my gut instinct is that improvement will not manifest itself until next season.

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It’s my favorite season of the year…football season!! So I have some thoughts on the college game as well as way too early first impressions about the NFL.

Teams that are better than I thought: Washington Redskins – maybe I underrated QB Rex Grossman a bit. Buffalo Bills – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was underrated by e-v-e-r-y-o-n-e.

I assume the Miami Dolphins will still draft a quarterback in 2012, but so far Chad Henne hasn’t been all that bad.

Teams that haven’t lived up to expectations: St. Louis Rams – I may have had their breakthrough predicted a year or two too early. Philadelphia Eagles – they certainly haven’t looked like a Dream Team.

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AFC East

New England Patriots (14-2) 13-3

New York Jets (11-5) 10-6

Buffalo Bills (4-12) 6-10

Miami Dolphins (7-9) 5-11

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (12-4) 11-5

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) 11-5

Cleveland Browns (5-11) 7-9

Cincinnati Bengals (4-12) 1-15

AFC South

Houston Texans (6-10) 9-7

Indianapolis Colts (10-6) 9-7

Tennessee Titans (6-10) 8-8

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8) 6-10

AFC West

San Diego Chargers (9-7) 11-5

Oakland Raiders (8-8) 8-8

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) 8-8

Denver Broncos (4-12) 3-13

Playoff Teams – New England, Baltimore, Houston, San Diego, NY Jets, Pittsburgh

AFC Champion – San Diego

The Patriots, Jets, Steelers, & Ravens will get all the buzz, but I’m predicting it’ll be the San Diego Chargers who will represent the AFC in The Super Bowl.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6) 12-4

Dallas Cowboys (6-10) 9-7

New York Giants (10-6) 5-12

Washington Redskins (6-10) 4-11

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (10-6) 14-2

Detroit Lions (6-10) 10-6

Chicago Bears (11-5) 9-7

Minnesota Vikings (6-10) 8-8

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6) 12-4

New Orleans Saints (11-5) 8-8

Atlanta Falcons (13-3) 8-8

Carolina Panthers (2-14) 3-13

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (5-11) 10-6

St. Louis Rams (7-9) 9-7

San Francisco 49ers (6-10) 8-8

Seattle Seahawks (7-9) 6-10

Playoff teams – Philadelphia, Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Arizona, Dallas, Detroit

NFC Champion – Tampa Bay

Many are already drooling about a potential Eagles-Packers championship game, but I believe one of those teams will stumble early in the playoffs and the other will fall in the title contest to the Bucs.

2012 Draft Lottery

1 Cincinnati Bengals QB Andrew Luck (Stanford)

2 Denver Broncos QB Landry Jones (Oklahoma)

3 Carolina Panthers WR Alshon Jeffery (South Carolina)

4 Washington Redskins QB Matt Barkley (Southern Cal)

5 NY Giants WR Justin Blackmon (Oklahoma St.)

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