Merry Christmas Manoverse!! I have to believe there are some seriously hardcore fans that have been watching Christmas Day NFL games the past couple of years, because there are THREE of them this year. Now, I don’t mind, because we did our family thing last week so my yuletide clam bake will be spent in solitude, firmly ensconced in my humble yet cozy abode. Three football games interspersed with Ralphie Parker and whatever other movies might be on will help me quell loneliness, despair, and memories of what I’ve lost, but surely not everyone’s life is so empty & meaningless?? Are the NFL & their television partners taking a serious gamble?? We’ll see. At any rate, for those who will be making merry with a house full of people, please enjoy every second and take nothing for granted. To the ones who understand my perspective, just know that you are seen. Other folks do get it. Never forget the real Reason for the Season, which should provide even the most melancholy a measure of joy.
Observations from Last Week:
I wonder how much of Alabama’s athletic budget goes to officiating crews 🤔.
Can we dispense with whole idiotic idea of gifting Group of Five teams a spot in the CFP…please?? Notre Dame, Texas, BYU, and Vanderbilt all would’ve put up a better first round fight.
I should’ve known Oregon would take their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter 🙄. They certainly made alot of folks quite happy, while screwing over a bunch of others. IYKYK.
Packers backup QB Malik Willis could be an intriguing option for quarterback needy teams this offseason.
Am I imagining it, or are more players going down with torn ACLs & other similar injuries than ever before??
My Season: 50-61
Zach’s Season: 53-58
Detroit (-6) at Minnesota
Even as a Steelers fan I can admit that had to be a tough loss to swallow for Detroit. At 8-7 the Lions are hanging by a thread as far the playoffs go. Needless to say this is a must win. Conversely, the 7-8 Vikings might be experiencing a bit of buyer’s remorse when it comes to quarterback JJ McCarthy, their first round pick in the 2024 Draft. The kid might have the potential to be good if he could ever stay on the field. He’s injured…again…which means Minnesota isn’t winning the game. It’s a 4:30pm kick on Thursday, which is probably right around the time most happy families will be eating their Christmas dinner. But don’t worry Netflix…I’ll be watching. Zach agrees with my assessment.
My Pick: Detroit
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
Denver (-13) at Kansas City
This game probably looked really good to the folks at Amazon Video not too long ago, but unfortunately for them alot of things can go straight to Hell in a month. Despite their loss to Jacksonville, the 12-3 Broncos are still looking to be the AFC’s top seed and get that first round bye. Conversely, Andy Reid’s Chiefs will miss the postseason for the first time in a decade, and they’ll be starting someone named Chris Oladokun at quarterback. I wish TBS/TNT could add another couple of hours onto their A Christmas Story marathon. Zach understands that KC is a dumpster fire, but believes they’ll find a way to remain competitive.
My Pick: Denver
Zach’s Pick: Kansas City
Jacksonville (-6.5) at Indianapolis
The fickle hand of fate has really bent the NFL over and violated it this season. The Colts were going to win their division easily, but then they had to raid an orphanage and take two dozen kids’ elderly Daddy away from them during the holidays to solve a quarterback dilemma, losing six of the last seven games in the process. Meanwhile, the 11-4 Jags have quietly snuck down the chimney and stolen the AFC South. They’re still in the mix for the #1 seed & first round bye, but some things have to fall their way. Thankfully this is just a prosaic 1pm Sunday kickoff, because it probably won’t be much fun to watch if you don’t have RedZone. Zach appreciates what Philip Rivers has tried to do for Indy, but he believes the favorites will get the job done.
My Pick: Jacksonville
Zach’s Pick: Jacksonville
Philadelphia at Buffalo (-2)
This was my preseason Super Bowl matchup, and it could still happen. The 11-4 Bills are in a battle with the surprising New England Patriots for the AFC East, and probably need to win both of their final two games. Philly’s road has been bumpy at times, but at 10-5 they’ve already wrapped up their division and would need too many dominoes to align perfectly to grab the NFC’s top seed, which seems unlikely. Essentially, all of the pressure is on Buffalo, especially with the home field. I think it’ll be tight, but with high expectations I believe in Josh Allen to get the job done…for now. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Buffalo
Zach’s Pick: Buffalo
LA Rams (-8.5) at Atlanta
Are the 11-4 Rams the most overlooked team in the league?? Shockingly, the answer might be yes. Despite a heartbreaking overtime loss in Seattle last week, Los Angeles still has a path to the division title and the conference’s top seed, although I don’t expect that to happen. On the other end of the spectrum, the 6-9 Falcons are the football equivalent of Bull Durham’s Crash Davis, when it is said “you have to respect a ballplayer who’s just trying to finish the season”. Atlanta has won two in a row, and they won’t go away quietly on Monday night. Can they play the spoiler role?? I think they’ll give it a damn fine try, which means that m-a-y-b-e they lose by 7-ish points. Zach doesn’t have as much faith in the home team as I do and foresees a big win for the Rams.
Bowl season has already began. Did you know that?? Did anyone even notice?? One of the concerns some had a long time ago about a college football playoff was that it would negatively impact bowl games, and that has proven to be the case. Teams like Notre Dame, Iowa St., Kansas St., and a bunch of 5-7 teams that never would’ve been invited in the past anyway, all turned down bowl bids, because really, if it isn’t the CFP it doesn’t matter. Why bother?? The transfer portal has essentially created a second recruiting period, and when you add the coaching carousel into the mix, coaches who are basically rebuilding a team from scratch on an annual basis, especially if they are in a new place, simply don’t have time to bother with the Kellogg’s Cereal Bowl against a mediocre directional school on a random weekday afternoon the week before Christmas. There is no honor or prestige anymore. A bowl game isn’t a reward, it is a burden. The benefits of extra practice time have evaporated because the team is going to be completely overhauled by spring anyway. NFL prospects aren’t risking their lucrative future with nothing significant on the line, like a national championship. The only entity that benefits from the bowl system these days is ESPN, because football fans will watch those odd matchups at 4pm on a Wednesday, or atleast their televisions will be providing background noise while they’re doing something more important. At any rate, all of this is just another reason why the entire collegiate athletics business model needs totally renovated, with legitimate leadership. I won’t hold my breath though.
Observations from Last Week:
Army-Navy rarely disappoints 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻.
What’s the deal with Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia?? In the wake of finishing second in the Heisman voting to Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Pavia apparently threw more than one temper tantrum, both in real life & on social media. At 5ft.10 (if that) Pavia is unlikely to make an impact in the NFL, but why torpedo the slim chance that might exist by acting like a petulant brat?? Sit down & shut your pie hole young man 🤐 . Peyton Manning & Marshall Faulk both placed second too, and they did okay in the aftermath.
Perhaps there is still hope for Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy 🤔.
I laugh at the people who say the Colts should’ve signed Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick to solve their quarterback problem. Neither one of those guys would have been a better option than Philip Rivers. Sadly, there are no great options, but instead of recognizing that reality some have chosen to interject identity politics into the discussion, because that’s an easy cop out nowadays.
Tough season for the KC Chiefs, who were eliminated from playoff contention for the first time in a decade. Then, to make matters worse, Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL late in the 4th quarter, which could impact NEXT season 👀. The dynasty may really be over.
My Season: 48-55
Zach’s Season: 49-54
Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington
The 9-5 Eagles got back on the winning track last week and hold an insurmountable lead in their division. The 4-10 Commanders have seen their season torpedoed by injuries. As a matter of fact, with nothing to play for they’ve already decided to shut down QB Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season. I am beginning to wonder if Washington may use their Top Ten first round pick on another quarterback. Crazy?? Perhaps. Shocking?? Possibly. But Daniels, as talented as he may be, is injury prone, and potential can never be realized on the bench. Anyway, Philly should win this Saturday evening matchup rather easily. Zach views the Eagles as inconsistent, but also understands they tend to get their stuff together late in the season. Given the circumstances he is rolling the dice on the visitors.
My Pick: Philadelphia
Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia
Green Bay (-1.5) at Chicago
Bold prediction…sort of – don’t be surprised if the 10-4 Bears lose their remaining three games, finish 10-7, and miss the playoffs. Am I putting money on that scenario?? Of course not…but it is more than plausible. One of the teams that would benefit is the 9-4-1 Packers, who are clinging tightly to a wildcard berth, but will be without the services of pass rusher Micah Parsons after he tore his ACL last week. This is a Saturday night game, and it is h-u-g-e. Green Bay won the previous matchup earlier this month by a touchdown, and I think they can do it again despite Parsons’ absence. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Green Bay
Zach’s Pick: Green Bay
Las Vegas at Houston (-14.5)
I honestly thought the coaching comeback of Pete Carroll and trading for QB Geno Smith were positive steps for the Raiders, but sitting in the AFC West basement at 2-12 indicates otherwise. Conversely, the 9-5 Texans have been victorious in six consecutive games, which is certainly a switch after they began the season 0-3. They are in a hell of a battle in their division, and haven’t yet clinched a playoff spot. No one expects Vegas to win, but can Houston cover?? Although I am somewhat trepidatious, I will ride with the home favorites. Zach feels like the Texans are peaking at the right time.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Houston
Tampa Bay (-3) at Carolina
The NFC South has traditionally come down to the wire, but the Bucs have been crowned division champs four seasons in a row. At 7-7 these teams are in a tie for first place, and it looks like a wildcard berth isn’t going to materialize for whoever finishes second. They play each other twice in the last three weeks of the season, and despite losing five of the past six games I still feel like Tampa is the better team. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Tampa Bay
Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Tulane at Ole Miss (-17.5)
I have made my feelings clear on the playoff. I don’t believe these participation trophy invitations to Group of Five conference champions is the right way to go. This is actually a rematch, with the two teams having ironically met up way back in September. Mississippi won that game by 35 points. Despite the departure of Lane Kiffin, I’d be surprised if the Rebels encounter any problems administering another beatdown to the Green Wave. Zach has a bit more faith in Tulane to be competitive, but still sees Ole Miss pulling away in the fourth quarter.
My Pick: Ole Miss
Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss
James Madison at Oregon (-21.5)
Ditto, only worse. The Ducks haven’t lost their coach and they’re a better team than Ole Miss. This could get ugly. Conversely, Zach has even more confidence in JMU than Tulane. He doesn’t think they have enough depth or speed to actually upset Oregon, but he doesn’t believe they’ll lose by three touchdowns.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: James Madison
Alabama (-1.5) at Oklahoma
We can debate whether or not ‘Bama deserved a playoff berth, but atleast this is a compelling matchup. Actually, it is another rematch because, as I constantly have to remind myself, Oklahoma is in the SEC now 🤦🏻♂️. When these teams met in Tuscaloosa a month ago the Sooners defense caused three turnovers that led to 17 points en route to victory that wasn’t secure until the final minute. There has been alot of noise lately about Tide coach Kalen DeBoer bolting after just two seasons to take the Michigan job, which would be insane. At any rate, given that distraction and the home field, I believe Oklahoma will win again with a late field goal. Zach, on the other hand, doesn’t believe The Tide will be rolled by the same opponent twice.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Miami (FL) at Texas A&M (-3.5)
The CFP committee received some heat for giving the playoff nod to the Hurricanes over Notre Dame, but head to head results matter, and Miami beat the Irish in the season opener. Coincidentally, A&M defeated Notre Dame the following week. The Aggies were unbeaten until they ran into in state rival Texas on Black Friday. College Station provides a huge home field advantage, so, though I don’t think it’ll be a blowout, I believe the home favorites will win comfortably. Zach sees the game as a tossup, but feels like Miami, and especially QB Carson Beck, can be a bit erratic at times. He leans toward it being a much closer game than I do, but with the same result.
It seems that we have arrived at Rivalry Week in college football, atleast the ones left standing after realignment. Most of these games, both college & pro, are happening on Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday, with a couple of huge battles taking center stage on Saturday. I am old enough to remember when only two NFL games…one featuring the Dallas Cowboys and the other with the Detroit Lions…took place on the holiday, but now we’re getting three Thanksgiving pro games and a game on Black Friday, in addition to a half dozen rather entertaining college games. No complaints here. Turkey & stuffing, football, Christmas movies, pie, and a whole lot of football sounds like a great time to me.
Observations from Last Week:
Unsportsmanlike conduct on the college level & roughing the passer in the NFL are two of the most ridiculously applied penalties, and that needs to be addressed in the offseason.
Why is it a Two Minute Warning in the NFL, but the Two Minute Timeout in college?? Is it a proprietary thing, or are college kids deemed too delicate for an ominous warning??
When I was a kid and announcers would mention “field goal range”, I thought that meant that the offense was required to make it to a certain area of the field before they were allowed to attempt a FG. I didn’t realize that…theoretically…a field goal can be tried from anywhere, though obviously it is unwise to do so.
So…JJ McCarthy is a bust. Alrighty then 🤦🏻♂️.
I can’t help but wonder what the Steelers offense might’ve looked like with Jameis Winston playing quarterback.
My Season: 42-35
Zach’s Season: 34-43
Ole Miss (-8.5) at Mississippi State
The conversation surrounding the 122nd Egg Bowl has been dominated by the future of Lane Kiffin, who might be headed for allegedly greener pastures following his sixth season in Oxford. The 10-1 Rebels need help to reach the SEC title game even if they win, but a loss obviously knocks them out. The 5-6 Bulldogs must win to become bowl eligible. Ole Miss leads the series 66-46-6 and have won 4 of the past 5 meetings. I don’t see that changing this year, and though the points do give me pause, I think the favorites win by ten. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Ole Miss
Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss
Iowa (-4.5) at Nebraska
This is a relatively new and decidedly intermittent “rivalry”. The teams have done battle on the gridiron 55 times since 1891, but after Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011 it has become an annual Black Friday tradition. Both teams are 7-4, and though they’re not in the conference championship conversation, they’d love to finish strong and travel to a great bowl location. It feels like a tossup to me, so I’m riding with the Huskers at home to score a mild upset. Conversely, Zach foresees Iowa slowing the tempo & dominating time of possession en route to a victory.
My Pick: Nebraska
Zach’s Pick: Iowa
Utah (-13.5) at Kansas
The 9-2 Utes need ALOT of help to back into the Big 12 title game, which seems unlikely. However, the first order of business is to win. That won’t be easy against the 5-6 Jayhawks, who have shown flashes of potential this season but find themselves in a must win scenario to achieve bowl eligibility. I’m not bold enough to pick an upset outright, but I do believe it’ll be closer than two touchdowns. Zach just thinks Utah is the better team. He predicts Kansas will remain competitive thru the first half before the visitors take over and win comfortably.
My Pick: Kansas
Zach’s Pick: Utah
Georgia (-12.5) vs. Georgia Tech
This is theoretically a neutral site game in Atlanta, although Tech’s campus is literally two miles down the road, whereas Athen, GA (home of the Bulldogs) is about 70 miles away. After getting to 8-0 and looking like a sure thing to play for the ACC title, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of their last three games and find themselves on the outside looking in unless a whole bunch of dominoes fall the right way. Conversely, the 10-1 Bulldogs only need Alabama OR Texas A&M to lose to secure a spot in the SEC Championship, which seems plausible. They call this game “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate”, which might be the dumbest freakin’ rivalry name I’ve ever heard. Anyway, Georgia leads the series 72-41-5 and has won seven consecutive matchups. I don’t think that’ll change this year, and I believe it’ll be a rather decisive victory. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Texas A&M (-2.5) at Texas
Forgive me if I’ve mentioned it in previous years, but I always associate this game with the 1982 Burt Reynolds/Dolly Parton classic The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas, in which the winning team is rewarded with a visit to The Chicken Ranch. In case you’re unfamiliar with the movie, though there are plenty of legs, thighs, and breasts, there are absolutely no chickens in sight. At any rate, the Aggies are undefeated and have probably locked up a spot in the CFP, but they need to win to guarantee an SEC Championship appearance, otherwise there’s a chance they could miss out. The 8-3 Longhorns haven’t been as successful as they’d hoped entering the season, but are still clinging to slim hopes of a CFP bid. The game being played in Austin concerns me just a bit, but I’m pulling for A&M to come out on top in an all time classic. Zach views the Aggies as well coached and likes QB Marcel Reed. He thinks Texas has shown improvement, but it won’t matter this week.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Arizona (-1.5) at Arizona State
The 8-3 Sun Devils still have an opportunity to play for the Big 12 title, but they need a couple other teams to lose. The Wildcats are also 8-3 but aren’t in championship contention. They should receive a fun bowl bid though. It is alternatively called the Duel in the Desert (👍🏻) or the Territorial Cup (👀), and there have been 98 previous meetings dating back to 1899. Arizona leads the series 51-45-1, although State has won six of the last eight games. These two teams feel even enough that the home field plays a role, so I am picking the mild upset. Zach thinks Arizona is the hotter team right now so he’s riding that hot hand.
My Pick: Arizona State
Zach’s Pick: Arizona
Alabama (-6.5) at Auburn
To be honest, I didn’t originally plan for us to pick this many games, and considered skipping the 90th Iron Bowl. However, despite the fact that ‘Bama has won the past five meetings and Auburn isn’t very good, I just couldn’t do it. The 5-6 Tigers have to win to achieve bowl eligibility, while the 9-2 Tide haven’t locked in a playoff berth just yet. The Tide has rolled to an all time series lead of 51-37-1 dating back to 1893. I would LOVE to see an upset, although I’m not dumb enough to put money on it. However, I think it is very possible that we see a close contest decided by a field goal in the final minute. Zach has faith in the visiting favorites to dominate in the 4th quarter when it matters most.
My Pick: Auburn
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Ohio State (-12.5) at Michigan
In my humble opinion, this is THE greatest rivalry…certainly in college football, and perhaps in the entirety of sports. Simply known as The Game, it has been played 120 times since 1897, with Michigan leading the series 62-51-6. Michigan has been victorious the past four years after Ohio St. had won eight consecutive meetings from 2012-19. Unless you’ve been off the grid for awhile you’re aware that the unbeaten Buckeyes have been the #1 team in the country all season. The Wolverines are a rather low key 9-2, with unfortunate losses on the road at Oklahoma & USC eradicating their conference title aspirations. I’d be quite surprised by an Ohio St. loss, but the points scare me, and the status of injured receivers Jeremiah Smith & Carnell Tate remains up in the air. If those dudes play the favorites win comfortably, but if they don’t then the outcome becomes questionable. I will roll the dice on both players being available. Unsurprisingly, Zach is all Blue all the time and has no respect for Ohio St.’s weak schedule.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Michigan
Green Bay at Detroit (-2.5)
Though it might be an NFC title preview, right now it is a battle for the division crown. The Packers sit a half game behind Chicago, while the Lions are a half game behind Green Bay. The Bears are receiving alot of love at the moment, but I still believe these two teams will surpass them. Green Bay won the season opener at Lambeau, but I think we’ll see a different result this time, with the RB tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery helping Detroit grind their way to an important win. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Detroit
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
Kansas City (-3.5) at Dallas
The 6-5 Chiefs saved their season…for the moment…with an overtime win over Indianapolis, but the path doesn’t become easier. The 5-5-1 Cowboys also kept their head above water with a surprising victory over Philadelphia. So, once more unto the breach go two teams that had higher expectations yet find themselves scratching & clawing to avoid irrelevance. I wouldn’t be shocked if both eventually make it to the postseason, but neither will I be surprised if both are sitting at home during the playoffs. This game might be better than sweet potatoes & cranberry sauce, and I believe in KC to continue their climb out of the abyss. Zach, on the other hand, feels like Dallas has the momentum and will continue to improve.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Dallas
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)
Anyone with a brain knew that the Ravens weren’t done, despite beginning the season 1-5. Now, after five straight victories (and because the Steelers are mid at best), Baltimore sits atop the AFC North. Meanwhile, the 3-8 Bengals will have QB Joe Burrow back in the saddle for the first time since he injured his toe way back in September. There’s no way Cincy climbs back into playoff contention, but they will undoubtedly be better with their starting quarterback. This is the nightcap on Thanksgiving, and I’ll probably be watching Christmas movies. I would love to see an upset, but unfortunately that seems unlikely. Zach is a bit more hopeful, as he thinks the Bengals can come out on top in a shootout.
My Pick: Baltimore
Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati
Chicago at Philadelphia (-7)
I have absolutely zero interest in Black Friday shopping, but even if I did I believe the way that whole thing works is the stores open obscenely early, and all the wackos who actually enjoy the insanity are finished and home by noon. So if you are participating you should still be able to catch the 3pm kickoff…if you have Prime Video. Anyway, it’s a great matchup featuring the 8-3 Bears, winners of four in a row, including a gritty skirmish with my offensively challenged Steelers, against the 8-3 Eagles, who still hold an overwhelming division lead despite forgetting to show up during the second half in their recent loss to the Cowboys. I may be proven wrong, but I’m still not sold on the Bears & QB Caleb Williams. Conversely, Philly’s track record speaks for itself, and it’s way too early to disregard their chance to be repeat champions. Zach believes the Bears just might be for real, and he predicts they’ll find a way to win a close one.
I’m not going to waste time with a wordy preamble today. Conference races are heating up, division titles are up for grabs, and playoff berths hang in the balance. It is absolutely the best time of the year to vegg out all weekend long watching football and leaving the insanity of the world out in the cold.
Observations from Last Week:
Congratulations to the Oregon St. Beavers for winning the Pac 12.
I agree with Kirk Herbstreit…Oklahoma’s kicker (nor any other player) should NOT be allowed to wear literal shorts as part of the uniform.
Non-football thought: MLB badly needs a salary cap ⚾️.
Kudos to Jags kicker Cam Little, who now holds the NFL record with a 68 yard field goal, the longest in the history of football.
I was defeated in one of my leagues by an opponent who started two players on their bye and another player on IR, so that’s how my fantasy season is going 👀.
My Season: 31-25
Zach’s Season: 20-36
BYU at Texas Tech (-10.5)
Theoretically we could see a rematch in the Big 12 title game next month. I am a little surprised by the points, given the fact that the Cougars are undefeated while the Red Raiders suffered a close loss a few weeks ago. Sure, Tech has the home field, but should that translate into being a double digit favorite?? Perhaps I don’t have all the information, but I’ll be stunned if it isn’t a much closer contest, no matter who wins. Zach agrees. He views BYU as a well coached team and really likes freshman QB Bear Bachmeier.
My Pick: BYU
Zach’s Pick: BYU
Texas A&M (-7) at Missouri
Did you know the Aggies are unbeaten?? I didn’t. The 6-2 Tigers will likely provide stiff competition, despite having lost two of their last three. However, without starting QB Beau Pribula, who is sidelined with an ankle injury, I just don’t think an upset is in the cards. Zach likes Missouri’s defense, but agrees it’s probably not enough.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Florida State at Clemson (-2.5)
Sometimes the hype just doesn’t match the reality. While there are blueblood programs that simply reload year after year and string together seemingly endless successful seasons, the truth is that each team is made up of human beings. Things happen. Injuries occur. Athletes don’t always live up to expectations. After a decade & a half at or near the top of the mountain, the 3-5 Tigers are struggling to achieve bowl eligibility. The 4-4 Seminoles know all about that, and for awhile it seemed like they’d gotten over that hump after several years of mediocrity. That was before they lost 4 out of the last 5 games. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Will Clemson wake up and defend their home turf?? Or does Florida St. smell blood in the water?? I think it’ll be the latter, with a late field goal sealing the deal. Zach still has faith in Dabo Swinney and thinks the home team will win a close one.
My Pick: Florida St.
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
LSU at Alabama (-10.5)
I’m looking at this game much differently than I would have just a month ago. The wheels are falling off in Baton Rouge, with the Bayou Bengals losing three of their last four games. Conversely, after losing their season opener The Tide have rolled to seven consecutive victories. I think ‘Bama wins by atleast two TDs…maybe three. Conversely, Zach feels like, no matter what has transpired, this is a rivalry game and the underdogs will atleast make it interesting.
My Pick: Alabama
Zach’s Pick: LSU
Baltimore (-4) at Minnesota
Don’t look now, but the rumors of Baltimore’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. At 3-5 they still have work to do to get back into playoff contention, but when healthy & at full strength there might not be a more dangerous team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the 4-4 Vikes are struggling to put it all together. We all understand the potential, and with quarterback JJ McCarthy back in the saddle they’re a better team. However, I foresee more close losses while they continue to build toward a better future in a couple of seasons. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Baltimore
Zach’s Pick: Baltimore
New England at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
So I guess the folks in New England are getting cocky again, thinking that QB Drake Maye is the second coming of Tom Brady. I suppose they’ve earned that confidence after going 7-2 and piecing together a six game win streak. Unfortunately they’re going up against the 6-2 Bucs and their signal caller Baker Mayfield, who knows a thing or two about cockiness. I understand that Tampa has suffered some injuries, but I believe they’ll find a way to grind out a tough win at home. Zach thinks Maye will be good, but he likes Mayfield to prevail this time.
My Pick: Tampa Bay
Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Detroit (-8.5) at Washington
The Commanders came into the season with alot of hype & momentum, but at 3-6 after losing four straight it just feels like a lost season. As much as I like QB Jayden Daniels the fact is that he’s an injury waiting to happen. He cannot be counted on to be available much of the time, and that’s a problem. The 5-3 Lions have lost two of their last three games, but I am still all in on them being a legit Super Bowl contender. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Detroit
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
Philadelphia at Green Bay (-2.5)
It’s early November, so I am assuming the tundra at Lambeau Field isn’t frozen just yet. However, the Packers still get the requisite home field bump. They are 5-2-1 but should actually have a better record, with a rare tie against the Cowboys and an inexplicable loss to Carolina being real head scratchers. Meanwhile, there seems to be alot of locker room drama in Philly. They’re 6-2 and will easily win their division, almost by default…but can they make another deep playoff run and defend their Super Bowl title?? This is the Monday night game so the talking heads will be all over it. Either way the outcome will be interpreted as some sort of defining statement, but it also might be an NFC Championship preview. I think the Eagles will try to silence their doubters with a mild upset. Zach doesn’t believe Green Bay is the real deal, so he’s calling for the “upset”.
The NFL schedule is already underway, with the Chargers defeating Minnesota last night. The World Series begins tonight. Dodgers vs. Blue Jays. Absolutely zero interest. The NBA season started this week as well. I’ll check in on that in January. When I’m not watching football in the next week I’ll be embracing the spirit of Halloween, although that probably doesn’t look the same in my world as it does in yours. More on that later. In the meantime, we continue on our gridiron journey.
Observations from Last Week:
Vanderbilt?!?!?? Really?!?!?? Vanderbilt is good at football now?? When did that happen??
I stand corrected…Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti just signed a long term deal to stay at with the Hoosiers. That’s probably a wise decision for all involved.
Finally, the Billy Napier Era at Florida is over. He was 22-23 in 3 1/2 seasons. At West Virginia he probably would’ve received a contract extension.
I saw a quote that said “Mike Tomlin is the James Franklin of the NFL”, and while I believe it is an apt comparison, the difference is that, unlike Penn St., the Steelers don’t have the courage to do what needs to be done.
Justin Herbert looked more like Justin Sherbet in that Chargers’ alternative uniform.
My Season: 24-22
Zach’s Season: 15-31
Boise State (-21.5) at Nevada
I always get the Nevada Wolfpack & the UNLV Rebels mixed up. Boise beat UNLV last weekend, and that might’ve been a better game to pick. Atleast it was high scoring (whoever took the over won some $$). The Broncos are 5-2 and sit atop the Mountain West in their final season in that conference, although they can’t let their foot off the gas since there are a couple of teams in hot pursuit. Nevada is a putrid 1-6, with their only win being over an FCS opponent. The Wolfpack does have the home field, but no one expects that to make much of a difference. The only question is Boise’s margin of victory. I am always wary of a 3+ TD spread, but in this case I think the favorites can get there. Zach has some concerns about Boise’s defense, but he thinks they’ll win big anyway.
My Pick: Boise St.
Zach’s Pick: Boise St.
Kansas State at Kansas (-3)
It’s the Sunflower Showdown, which sounds a little wimpy for a football game. It’ll be the 123rd meeting since 1902, with Kansas leading the series 65-52-5, although State has won the past 16 games. Sixteen!! That’s quite a winning streak. I had higher hopes for the 3-4 Wildcats, but it isn’t the first time they’ve disappointed me. Meanwhile, after a malaise of nearly two decades the Jayhawks looked like they’d figured things out last season. However, now, sitting at 3-4, it feels like they may have regressed. So, can visiting underdogs go into hostile territory and continue what has to be one of the longest current win streaks in a rivalry game?? I think Kansas is on the right track in the grand scheme of things, but when it comes to this matchup I see no reason to believe the streak will be broken. Conversely, Zach expects Kansas’ offensive firepower to get the job done.
My Pick: Kansas St.
Zach’s Pick: Kansas
Ole Miss at Oklahoma (-4.5)
With the exception of the Red River Shootout, the loss of which could legitimately be blamed on QB John Mateer not being 100% after an injury, the 6-1 Sooners have been impressive, although the back half of their schedule is challenging. I feel like we’ve been sleeping on the 6-1 Rebels, despite their 4th quarter implosion at Georgia last week. I’m a little surprised that ESPN didn’t choose this one for Gameday, but I don’t know what factors into those decisions. It’s a Noon kickoff, which feels disrespectful. The underdogs have been in some pretty close contests and won, so I believe they’ll keep things interesting, but with Mateer’s health improving I think Oklahoma is probably a touchdown better. Zach, on the other hand, is a big fan of head coach Lane Kiffin and believes he’ll have some things up his sleeve to lead the visiting underdogs to an upset.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss
NY Giants at Philadelphia (-10.5)
The Eagles have a two game lead in the NFC East, and the Giants have no chance to maneuver themselves into playoff position. However, since pulling the trigger on making rookie Jaxson Dart the starting QB the G-Men have shown flashes of…something. With Dart under center, folk hero Cam Skattebo toting the rock, and receiver Malik Nabers at receiver, there is a very strong core for future success, but Nabers tore his ACL and those other guys are rookies, so everything is on hold. Meanwhile, Philly is 5-2 and leads their division, but they’ve lost 2 out of the last 3 games and something feels…off. Could this be a classic trap game?? The Giants could easily be 4-3 instead of 2-5, while the Eagles have had the ball bounce their way a few times at key moments. It’s not the smart move, but The Vibes smell an upset…or atleast a much closer game than most expect. Zach doesn’t expect an upset, but he agrees that it’ll be a close game.
My Pick: NY Giants
Zach’s Pick: NY Giants
Dallas at Denver (-4.5)
I will reluctantly give credit not only to the 3-3-1 Cowboys, but also to receiver George Pickens. As a Steelers fan I was hoping Pickens would implode in Dallas, but that hasn’t happened. If it weren’t for one of the worst defenses in the NFL the Cowboys’ record would certainly be much better. The 5-2 Broncos have been better than I anticipated and currently lead the AFC West, with two games against the Kansas City Chiefs still on the schedule. The home field is significant, and I have no faith in Dallas’ defense, so I expect QB Bo Nix to pick them apart. The Cowboys offense will keep it close for awhile, but Denver should pull away late for a double digit win. Zach is rolling the dice on Dak Prescott and his tremendous weapons to somehow pull off a mild surprise.
I am skipping a verbose preamble today. We’re doing a healthy amount of bonus picks, so I’d rather focus on that. It’s finally autumn if you’re into that sorta thing, so throw on some flannel, grab a pumpkin flavored beverage, and enjoy two guys who’d be destitute if we did this for money act like we know stuff about football.
My Season: 13-9
Zach’s Season: 6-16
Auburn at Texas A&M (-6.5)
The Tigers are 3-1, hoping to bounce back from a tough loss to Oklahoma, and possibly looking ahead to a winnable game against Georgia next week. The 3-0 Aggies are a Top Ten team coming out of a bye week. The points bother me a little, but I think College Station provides a formidable home field advantage. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Appalachian State at Boise State (-17.5)
Thru the years they’ve both been elite 1-AA/FCS programs, and now they’re both well respected “Group of Five” teams. The 2-1 Broncos will step into a revamped Pac 12 next year, but for now remain focused on winning their seventh Mountain West crown in 15 years, which would be a three-peat. The 2-1 Mountaineers would like to position themselves as contenders in the Sun Belt, a conference they haven’t won since 2019 after capturing four consecutive titles. These teams only met on the gridiron once, and that was more than three decades ago, which is a shame because I feel like it could’ve been a fun rivalry. I’d love to see App. St. be competitive, but on the infamous blue turf against a team with legit NFL talent that seems like a tall order. Conversely, Zach feels like the underdogs have what it takes to hang in there and keep it respectable.
My Pick: Boise St.
Zach’s Pick: Appalachian St.
Alabama at Georgia (-3.5)
It is absolutely hysterical that ESPN passed up an opportunity to bring Gameday to this matchup for the 12th time in 23 years. I guess the 2-1 Tide and the 3-0 Bulldogs just aren’t as elite as they used to be. Georgia had to go to overtime to beat Tennessee last week, while ‘Bama is still trying to figure out how in the hell they lost to Florida St. in the season opener. Alabama leads the all time series 44-26-4 and have won 9 out of the last 10 meetings, but I have to lean toward the home team defending their turf and winning by a touchdown. Zach doesn’t foresee it being that competitive, predicting the Dawgs to win a blowout.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Oregon at Penn State (-3.5)
Okay, so…the winner might end up sharing the Big Ten lead with Southern Cal 👀. Conference realignment is bizarre. The unbeaten Ducks have looked virtually unstoppable, but they are definitely stepping up to better competition than they’ve faced thus far. To be honest I haven’t paid much attention to the undefeated Nittany Lions, but my sources indicate that they’ve steamrolled lesser opponents as well. “Experts” say Penn St. QB Drew Allar will be a first round NFL Draft pick, but then again so were Sam Bradford & Trey Lance. I believe Oregon is simply faster & more athletic overall, and they should win by double digits…something like 28-17. Zach sees Oregon as perhaps the best team in the country and doesn’t have any faith in Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin to win a big game.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
Philadelphia (-3) at Tampa Bay
The defending Super Bowl Champions are 3-0 and haven’t shown any signs of a letdown. Jalen Hurts might be the most versatile QB in the league, but the defense probably needs to kick things up a notch or two. Meanwhile, the 3-0 Bucs could just as easily be 0-3, but they’re a gritty bunch. It’ll be a fun game, yet, at the end of the day, I’d be surprised if Philly doesn’t score a comfortable victory. Zach is all in on Tampa QB Baker Mayfield and thinks he’ll lead his squad to a dramatic triumph.
My Pick: Philadelphia
Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3.5)
I underestimated the 49ers, who have gotten off to a 3-0 start despite being riddled with injuries. It hasn’t been easy, and things could certainly change, but so far so good. The Jags feel like one of those teams that’ll always battle and rarely get embarrassed, but fall just short more often than they find a path to victory. The final score will probably make it look closer than it was in reality, with the home favorites winning by 5-10 points. Zach opines “the Jags are the Jags”. That says it all, doesn’t it??
My Pick: San Francisco
Zach’s Pick: San Francisco
Indianapolis at LA Rams (-3.5)
While I underestimated the Jags, I flat out disrespected the Colts. Who knew that Daniel Jones would look like a legit first round caliber quarterback simply by changing his address?? That being said, the Rams might be the best team Indy has faced, and they’re probably not too happy about the way they lost to Philly, a game they had a real opportunity to win. Los Angeles has a Top 5 rated defense, which I think will rise to the occasion in the 4th quarter. Zach predicts that Daniel Jones will suddenly look like…well, Daniel Jones, and that’s not good news for the visitors.
My Pick: LA Rams
Zach’s Pick: LA Rams
Baltimore (-2.5) at Kansas City
Many “experts” thought this might be an AFC title game preview. It still could be, but right now it’s a battle between two teams in last place in their division. The 1-2 Chiefs look like a subpar cover band version of the team that has played in three consecutive Super Bowls, winning two of them. The 1-2 Ravens could be sitting at 3-0, but the ball just hasn’t bounced their way. I suspect we’ll see both teams rebound and go on a tear later on in the season, but right now they are just trying to survive. I like the home field for KC, and believe we’ll see them begin to figure things out against a tough opponent. Zach urges Chiefs fans not to give up on their team and believes they’ll be in contention when it really matters. He’s a big Andy Reid fan and foresees Travis Kelce finally having a big game.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Kansas City
Green Bay (-6.5) at Dallas
I suppose this is the Micah Parsons Bowl. Jerry Jones is one of the worst owners in professional sports, because how many other team owners are also the general manager?? Trading Parsons was idiotic, but if it had to be done Jones could’ve atleast sent the disgruntled pass rusher to the AFC. At any rate, the 2-1 Packers should be PISSED about last week’s fourth quarter implosion that led to ten unanswered points & a walkoff field goal victory for the Cleveland Browns. The 1-2 Cowboys simply haven’t looked right in any way, and now they’ll be without receiver CeeDee Lamb, who is sidelined with a high ankle sprain. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, but I’m sure league & network suits are regretting that right now. Green Bay will win, and it probably won’t be that close. Zach thinks QB Jordan Love will have a big game and lead his team to a huge win.
I suppose it’s more of a postscript than a tribute, but a fond farewell to Lee Corso, whose final appearance on College Gameday occurred last weekend. Perhaps ESPN laid it on a little thick, but Corso’s swan song was well done, and all of the kind words heaped on him by everyone from Matthew McConaughey & Will Ferrell to various coaches, players, and talking heads felt genuine and well-earned. Gameday has been a part of my autumn Saturday morning routine for nearly four decades, which will continue, although it’ll be just a bit different without Corso. I’ve always embraced nostalgia and lived long enough to see many longstanding traditions slip into the ether. Life moves forward, but a tip o’ the cap to those rituals that make moments memorable for as long as they do. Godspeed Coach Corso…may you enjoy the winter of your days with happiness & peace.
Observations from Last Week:
Quite surprised by upsets of Boise St. & Alabama. I had no idea former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is now Florida St.’s offensive coordinator.
Atleast in college football, defense can still win championships.
I have officially entered the stage of life when I can no longer hang until the west coast games end on Saturday night 😴.
LaNorris Sellers would look great in a Pittsburgh Steelers uniform.
My Season: 3-2
Zach’s Season: 1-4
Baylor at SMU (-4)
The Bears were beaten convincingly by Auburn last weekend, while the Mustangs had no problem easily dispatching an FCS opponent. I don’t think much will change this week. Zach doesn’t trust Baylor’s defense and believes the home team will win a high scoring contest.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: SMU
Iowa at Iowa State (-3.5)
The Battle of Iowa is a hidden gem amongst collegiate rivalries. The Hawkeyes lead the series, which dates back to 1894, 47-24. However, the Cyclones have won two of the past three games. State is already 2-0, while their Big Ten counterparts whipped up on an FCS opponent last week. My high hopes for the home team remain intact, and I believe they’ll win by a touchdown. Zach foresees a low scoring defensive struggle, with the home field tipping the scales.
My Pick: Iowa St.
Zach’s Pick: Iowa St.
Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5)
The Wolverines dominated New Mexico in their season opener, while the Sooners are another team that got things started by defeating an FCS foe. There’s been alot of behind the scenes turmoil in Ann Arbor, but I don’t believe it will significantly impact their season. Oklahoma has been a model of inconsistency for the past few years, but there seems to be renewed optimism in Norman. I don’t know who will ultimately win the game, but I think it’ll be decided one way or another by a field goal, perhaps in overtime. Zach, on the other hand, is utilizing reverse psychology from the jump, opining that he is concerned about Michigan’s defense and an uninspiring performance last weekend.
My Pick: Michigan
Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma
Dallas at Philadelphia (-7.5)
Hey y’all, the NFL is back!! The season kicks off Thursday night in Philly, and of course we all know there’s been alot going on with the Cowboys. I did not see the Micah Parsons trade coming, which considerably alters my outlook for Dallas and Green Bay. For this game specifically, I don’t foresee a path to victory for the visitors, although the points concern me a bit. Can the defending Super Bowl Champions Tush Push their way to a TD+ win?? I think they can. Zach isn’t concerned at all and thinks the home team wins easily.
My Pick: Philadelphia
Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia
Kansas City (-3) vs. LA Chargers
Keep an eye on the AFC West this season. The Chargers could mount a legit challenge to the Chiefs, and obviously a victory right out of the gate would help their cause. This is a Friday night game emanating from Brazil. It’ll be broadcast on YouTube, with kickoff set for 8pm EST (it’ll be 9pm in Sao Paulo, which could affect the players). My gut tells me that the crowd will be in KC’s corner because they’re a better known international brand. I also have more faith in head coach Andy Reid to navigate the unique circumstances and have his team prepared. Zach believes tight end Travis Kelce has been distracted and not focused on football. He also has positive vibes about the long term success of the Chargers. However, he can’t go against the Chiefs in this particular situation.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Kansas City
Detroit at Green Bay (-2.5)
As mentioned, the addition of pass rusher Micah Parsons to the Packers defense improves their outlook tremendously, perhaps making them clear favorites in the NFC North. Green Bay also has the home field, which could be important in a tight game. I haven’t lost faith in the Lions, but I believe they’ll begin the season with a loss. Zach feels that Detroit is still a better team and will win a close game.
My Pick: Green Bay
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
Baltimore at Buffalo (-1.5)
It’s the Sunday night game on NBC. The Bills are my pick to win the Super Bowl, but I have seen “experts” predict they won’t even win their division. Conversely, the Ravens are favored by almost everyone whose opinion you’d trust to win theirs and make a serious Super Bowl run. It might not be the smart choice, but I’m sticking with my preseason thoughts and pulling for Josh Allen to matriculate down the field deep into the 4th quarter to defend his home turf. Zach concurs.
Just when I was kinda sorta almost getting amped up for the return of football, news emerged of ESPN gobbling up the NFL Network & RedZone. I was upset last year when RedZone abandoned their “seven hours of commercial free football” tradition, although if I’m being honest the commercials were sprinkled in unobtrusively. However, ESPN (or, if we’re keeping it 100, Disney) tends to ruin perfectly great things with their meddling. I still haven’t forgiven them for canceling Mike & Mike in the Morning eight years ago. Disney…which is also now in bed with WWE…has become a greedy monster gobbling up everything in sight, and the fans pay the price. Anyway, I suppose further changes won’t occur until next season, so we’ll forge ahead as usual for now. As always, I’ll remind you that I really don’t know what the hell I’m talking about sometimes, so please…no wagering.
North
Detroit Lions (15-2) 11-6
Green Bay Packers (11-6) 10-7
Minnesota Vikings (14-3) 9-8
Chicago Bears (5-12) 8-9
I’m so tired of talking heads slobbering all over Bears’ QB Caleb Williams, using words like “generational”. No, he’s not. He’s just another guy. In three years, if I am wrong, I will admit my error and ask for mercy. At this point though, I don’t believe Williams will be much more successful than predecessors like Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, or Jay Cutler. Chicago does have a new head coach though. Former Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is getting his crack at a top job, and if anyone can prove me wrong about Williams it’s probably him. I like Vikings’ QB JJ McCarthy, but he is essentially a rookie after missing all of last season with a knee injury. The Vikes added some pieces on defense & bolstered their offensive line. Having said that, we probably need to show a bit of grace while McCarthy becomes acclimated to the NFL. Despite the presence of elite receiver Justin Jefferson, a solid running back group, and one of the best tight ends in the league in TJ Hockenson, I foresee a significant dropoff from a year ago. The Packers are being overlooked a bit, which might work in their favor. Jordan Love enters his third year as the starting quarterback, but he’s going to need more consistency from a deep & talented group of receivers, and their Top 5 defense has to maintain that level of intensity. Detroit’s defense was ravaged by injuries last year, and former defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has moved on to be the head coach of the NY Jets. How will their offense adjust after the departure of Ben Johnson?? That’ll be the key to the entire season. I expect a small regression, but it’ll be worth it if they have a deeper playoff run.
South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) 9-8
Atlanta Falcons (8-9) 9-8
Carolina Panthers (5-12) 6-11
New Orleans Saints (5–12) 6-11
While I don’t believe Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield is worthy of being discussed alongside the league’s elite signal callers, I do think he has earned a spot on the second tier. A season ago that translated into a division title & a first round postseason exit, which is probably their ceiling once again. All eyes will be on Michael Penix Jr., now entrenched as the Falcons’ quarterback. Of course they also retained Kirk Cousins, whose services weren’t sought by any other team given his robust salary. Tight end Kyle Pitts has got to live up to his potential, and Atlanta’s defense, which ranked in the bottom third of the NFL last season, must kick it up a notch. The Panthers & Saints are spinning their wheels. New Orleans hired Kellen Moore to be their head coach, which may pay dividends in the future, but right now they simply have too many holes on the roster. I have come to the conclusion that the Panthers are football’s version of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They hire the wrong people, make bad decisions, and can’t evaluate talent properly. Their biggest issue is likely ownership, which won’t change until it does.
East
Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) 12-5
Dallas Cowboys (7-10) 10-7
Washington Commanders (12-5) 10-7
New York Giants (3-14) 6-11
Winning back-to-back Super Bowls is rare, but has been done as recently as the year before last. The Eagles have appeared in three Super Bowls since 2017, winning two. There has been some turnover on defense, but getting younger might not be a bad thing. Key free agents departed on both sides of the ball, yet, as long as Jalen Hurts is under center, he has his full complement of receivers, and Saquon Barkley is toting the rock, I see no reason to doubt Philly just yet. Brian Schottenheimer is now the head coach in Dallas, a change I’ve been predicting for a couple of years. Expect the Cowboys to rebound from a disappointing season and challenge Philadelphia for the division crown…assuming sack monster Micah Parsons gets paid. The Commanders will be right there in the mix as well, although QB Jayden Daniels won’t be sneaking up on anyone anymore. Does that mean Washington won’t be successful?? No…but I believe they’ll take a step back for now, especially if issues with receiver Terry McLaurin aren’t resolved satisfactorily. I actually like some of the things the Giants have done, but until Jaxon Dart supplants Russell Wilson behind center and young studs on defense gain experience there won’t be any postseason games at MetLife Stadium.
West
Los Angeles Rams (10-7) 10-7
Arizona Cardinals (8-9) 9-8
San Francisco 49ers (6-11) 9-8
Seattle Seahawks (10-7) 8-9
The Seahawks are almost unrecognizable. There’s a whole new offensive coaching staff, and Sam Darnold replaces Geno Smith at quarterback. Many will view that as an upgrade, but I’m not so sure. Receivers DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett are gone, with former Ram Cooper Kupp stepping in as the new second receiver behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle was a middle-of-the-pack defense last year, but with so many changes no one knows what to expect now. I don’t think the NIners will be as terrible as they were a year ago, but their defense was certainly impacted in free agency. Time will tell if draft picks pan out, and in the meantime alot is riding on the further development of QB Brock Purdy & the always unstable health of RB Christian McCaffrey. I don’t have much more faith in Cards’ QB Kyler Murray than I do Caleb Williams, but if receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. continues his ascent that’ll help. Arizona’s braintrust seemed to focus on a defensive rebuild this offseason, so we’ll see how that works out. I don’t think winning their second consecutive division title will be easy for the Rams, and I’m a little concerned about the health of QB Matthew Stafford, but the defense should be sneaky good enough to narrowly win the division.
My Steelers have been the talk of the offseason. Will they be terrible or will they be mediocre?? I believe that’s called damning with faint praise. Enigmatic Aaron Rodgers will be the quarterback, and he’ll be throwing mostly to DK Metcalf, who I see as an upgrade after George Pickens yapped his way out of town. He’s Jerry Jones’ problem now. Pass rusher TJ Watt got paid, and I have no doubt he’ll earn it. The running game looks different with rookie Kaleb Johnson & Jaylen Warren sharing duties after the departure of former first round bust Najee Harris. For the first time in several years I have good vibes about the offensive line & secondary. Everything seems to be held together by duct tape & prayer in Pittsburgh, which won’t get them to the Super Bowl but also hopefully means I won’t spend the next several months curled up in a dark room muttering to myself, as I assume Browns fans have been doing for decades. First of all, Cleveland’s quarterback room is unintentionally hilarious. Secondly, Myles Garrett is not the best defensive player in the NFL. Look on the bright side though…the Cavaliers are pretty good, and the Guardians ain’t half bad either. The division belongs to Baltimore, who’ve become the AFC’s Dallas Cowboys tribute band. No one doubts they’ll be successful in the regular season, but everyone assumes they’ll screw the pooch in the playoffs. Can the Bengals be a fly in the ointment?? Joe Burrow is a top notch quarterback. He has solid weapons, although if I were the GM I’d be looking for upgrades in the backfield & at tight end in the next draft. However, Cincy’s defense ranked in the bottom third of the league last season, and that was with pass rusher Trey Hendrickson in the lineup. If his holdout continues it’s a huge problem, and even if he plays there are other issues.
South
Houston Texans (10-7) 9-8
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13) 8-9
Indianapolis Colts (8-9) 7-10
Tennessee Titans (3-14) 6-11
Which teams will improve and which teams will regress?? The Texans have a target on their back and tweaked their team just a bit. There are some new coaches on offense and a revamped offensive line. Quarterback CJ Stroud’s QBR dropped from 53.2 during his rookie season to 50.2 last year, while his passer rating dropped from 100.8 to 87. He has to be better. The Colts will choose between QBs Anthony Richardson & Daniel Jones, which is like having drunk munchies at 3am and your best options are the container of Chinese food that’s been in your fridge for a week or risking a DUI to grab some Taco Bell. Jonathan Taylor is only 26 years old & one of the best RBs in football when healthy, and I really like first round draft pick Tyler Warren, who has elite tight end potential. Indy ranked 29th in total defense a season ago, and I don’t know if they did enough to improve significantly. #1 overall pick Cam Ward has an opportunity to be a special QB for the Titans, but it’ll take a couple of years to build a competitive roster around him. The Jags brought in former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen to be their new head coach and drafted unicorn Travis Hunter, who will allegedly play WR & CB. I like receiver Brian Thomas, and there are some dawgs on defense, but everything in Jacksonville is contingent upon QB Trevor Lawrence rebounding from an injury plagued season during which he only played in ten games.
East
Buffalo Bills (13-4) 14-3
Miami Dolphins (8-9) 9-8
New England Patriots (4-13) 7-10
New York Jets (5-12) 7-10
There is no question that the Bills will win the division easily. Their focus is solely on solving recent playoff woes & playing in February. The Dolphins moved some chess pieces around, but I don’t believe their team is any better or worse than last season. QB Tua Tagovailoa only played in 11 games a year ago, and it seems like further concussion issues could seriously jeopardize his career. Patriots QB Drake Maye comes into his second season surrounded by a team that has undergone a significant transformation. Former linebacker & Titans head coach Mike Vrabel now runs the show for the franchise he won three Super Bowls with, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels returns home after realizing he’s not really cut out to be a head coach. Things are looking up in New England, but let’s give them another year before raising expectations. The Jets are the Jets. I know there is some buzz around new quarterback Justin Fields, but I’ve never understood the hype. Former cornerback Aaron Glenn is the Jets’ fifth head coach in the past decade, and unfortunately I don’t think he’ll achieve much more than his last few predecessors.
West
Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) 12-5
Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) 10-7
Denver Broncos (10-7) 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders (4-13) 7-10
Have the Chiefs plateaued?? Can they make a fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance?? I don’t believe it’ll be easy, but as long as Andy Reid is coaching and QB Patrick Mahomes remains healthy with no prominent erosion of his skills it’s too soon to dismiss KC. Having said that, I do think Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers will make things interesting. RB Najee Harris was a bust in Pittsburgh, and he’ll probably cede the starting gig to first rounder Omarion Hampton, but together they could be a formidable duo. A couple of receivers really need to step up for QB Justin Herbert, and the 11th ranked defense has to keep improving. A year ago I underestimated the skills of QB Bo Nix, but he showed alot of potential while leading the Broncos to the playoffs. Denver is probably looking at a very similar season in a really competitive division. I really like the Raiders trading for QB Geno Smith, who should be a significant upgrade over the potpourri of mediocrity that held the job the past couple of years. Super Bowl winning head coach Pete Carroll has also come out of retirement to lead the charge, which is oddly encouraging. With the addition of first round RB Ashton Jeanty & continued growth of tight end Brock Bowers there are signs of hope in Vegas, but their middle of the pack defense has to improve or they’ll continue to lose more games than they win.
It’s time to put a bow on the football season and perhaps address one or two other issues.
It’s hard to believe that only a few weeks have passed since Ohio St. won the CFP Championship. It feels like a lifetime ago. At any rate, kudos to the Buckeyes, who blew past Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas with relative ease before mostly dominating Notre Dame in the title game, despite not even playing in the Big Ten Championship and being seeded 8th in the CFP. It was the inaugural season for the 12 team playoff, and despite my initial misgivings about that expansion I cannot deny that it was successful and solidly entertaining. I do believe the formula will eventually be tweaked a bit, but before the inevitable expansion to 16 teams I hope the powers-that-be iron out the seeding process, and really, I would love to see conference title games incorporated into the first round of the playoff. I also believe that the FBS needs to split, with the Group of Five conferences playing for their own title while the Power 4 teams do their thing. Anyway, those are rabbit holes we can dive into some other time.
Congratulations to the Philadelphia Eagles, who gave the Kansas City Chiefs a surprising Super Bowl beatdown to claim their second Lombardi Trophy in seven years and deny KC an unprecedented three-peat. My sports fandom is fueled by disdain more than I’d prefer to admit, but I don’t hold any particular ill will toward either team and therefore didn’t have a dog in the fight. I don’t even suffer from Chiefs fatigue yet, and am not all that bothered by the whole Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift situation. My only wish was for a fun, competitive contest, and in that regard the game fell woefully short.
On the same day that Philly won the Super Bowl, legendary basketball broadcaster Hubie Brown ended his career that lasted a half century, first as a coach then as an analyst on TV. It has been well-established that I don’t pay much attention to the NBA regular season, but to the extent that I have watched games thru the years Brown has been a constant presence…a soothing, knowledgeable voice who provided insightful analysis and focused on teaching fans about the game he so clearly loves instead of trying to be the kind of personality who draws attention to themselves that has become pervasive as television grew into the dominant force in sports. ABC did a nice job of honoring 91 year old Brown during his final broadcast without disrespecting the game itself (a fairly prosaic victory for the Milwaukee Bucks over the Philadelphia 76ers).
I will not dump all over the Super Bowl halftime featuring rapper Kendrick Lamar. I don’t want to become one of those hypercritical old goats who begin every commentary with “back in my day”, so suffice to say that the show wasn’t my cup o’ tea. However, I knew that going in. I am fully aware that middle aged white guys, despite all accusations of “privilege”, are not the target demographic for much of anything. I’ll spare all of us a breakdown of why that is, and just say that I am fine with it. However, from a business perspective I would suggest to the NFL that such a prominent position should probably be occupied by a performer with much broader appeal. I am sure that there are people who enjoyed Kendrick Lamar immensely, but I don’t believe it was an impactful chunk of the viewing audience.
After a full season of watching the NFL’s new dynamic kickoff I have to say that I don’t despise it, except for one significant issue. I hate that onside kicks have essentially been eliminated from the game, and teams can’t even declare their intention to try an onside until the 4th quarter. I don’t believe that trick plays (including a surprise onside kick) should be used recklessly, but to preclude such a possibility at all negates an intriguing layer of strategery.
Both Zach & myself limped to the finish in our weekly picks, going 3-5 in the final week. That means I finished 56-61, while he was 55-62. It’s a rather pyrrhic victory that enforces the fact that we aren’t very good at prognosticating football games and would probably both be homeless bums if we chose to gamble with real money.
On January 8, 2018, QB Jalen Hurts was benched at halftime of college football’s national title game. Freshman Tua Tagovailoa came in and led Alabama to a comeback victory in overtime. Hurts spent the following season as Tagovailoa’s backup before transferring to Oklahoma. Seven years later Tagovailoa has spent most of his five year NFL career struggling to convince “experts” he should remain the Miami Dolphins’ starter while compiling a 38-24 record with only one postseason game. Conversely, Hurts has led the Philadelphia Eagles to two Super Bowls, winning one while being named the game’s MVP. There are alot of valuable lessons to be learned from that story.
With the dawn of a new era in college football we’ve decided to forego our traditional Bowl-a-Palooza and incorporate the playoff games into our normal routine. Let’s face it…most of the bowl games have been superfluous for awhile now, and with interim coaches & transfer portal madness it has become nearly impossible to predict them with any degree of legit knowledge. By all means, if ESPN is airing the Cereal Bowl featuring East State vs. Big City Tech at 4pm on a Tuesday afternoon please enjoy it. Sometimes those random matchups are rather delightful. For our purposes here though, we’ll stick with games that have some degree of importance. I must reluctantly admit that last week (1-4) was abysmal for me, which means that I have finally fallen below .500 for the season, while Zach (3-2) has closed the gap to within three games. Buckle up…it’s going to be a wild stretch run.
My Season: 48-51
Zach’s Season: 45-54
Indiana at Notre Dame (-7.5)
Somehow the rankings happened to fall into place just right, making this intra-state battle possible. Funny how that worked out. At any rate, opinions vary on the 11-1 Hoosiers, especially after they were beaten by three TDs in Columbus a few weeks ago. Should they be here instead of Alabama?? I believe that results matter, and teams can only play the opponents on their schedule. The Hoosiers did that and only lost once, so I think they earned their spot. Meanwhile, the 11-1 Fighting Irish probably have a nearly guaranteed playoff berth anytime they win 9+ games, despite not being a member of any conference. Look…any football fan with actual insight into the game will admit that if these teams met a hundred times Notre Dame would win 80% of the time. Having said that, my Marshall Thundering Herd traveled to South Bend and upset Notre Dame a couple of years ago, so anything is possible. This is a Friday night kickoff, and I know the nephews & I will be hurrying home after our family Christmas dinner to watch. I’d be pleasantly surprised by an upset, but wouldn’t bet money on that happening. However, I feel like Indiana is being overlooked & disrespected just a bit. They’ll keep it close. Zach, however, points out that Notre Dame just signed head coach Marcus Freeman to a contract extension, and on the field they’ve crushed every opponent since an inexplicable early season loss to Northern Illinois. He sees Indiana as talented & well coached, but doesn’t feel like they have what it takes to keep pace in this game.
My Pick: Indiana
Zach’s Pick: Notre Dame
SMU at Penn State (-8.5)
Much of what I said about the previous matchup applies to this game as well. The 11-2 Mustangs aren’t receiving much love. A year ago they were playing in the AAC, and now they play in the ACC, which is probably the weakest of the Power 4. If they’d been blown out in the conference title game by Clemson it is likely that Alabama would’ve been handed this spot, but SMU played a hell of a 4th quarter and nearly pulled off a big comeback. Conversely, Penn St.’s playoff berth was never in question, despite losing the Big Ten Championship to Oregon. The 11-2 Nittany Lions are probably a little overrated, but they’ve mowed thru most of their schedule with tremendous success, which cannot be denied. Not to be repetitive, but once again…if these teams played one another a hundred times the home favorites would almost certainly win 80% of those games, but anything can happen in this one instance. I think SMU will be more than competitive for three quarters, but end up losing…by a touchdown. Conversely, Zach isn’t sure SMU belongs here and foresees a comfortable win by the home favorites.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: Penn St.
Clemson at Texas (-11.5)
I am somewhat surprised by the points. Sure, the 11-2 Longhorns quickly acclimated to the SEC and were only defeated by Georgia (twice). It is also true that the 10-3 Tigers aren’t as elite as they were while appearing in six consecutive (four team) CFPs and winning national championships in two of those years. However, a double digit spread feels disrespectful. Texas will probably win, but it won’t be by more than ten points. Zach is a big Dabo Swinney fan and agrees that Clemson will be more competitive than the “experts” believe.
My Pick: Clemson
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
Tennessee at Ohio State (-7.5)
Are people overlooking this game?? It’s an 8/9 matchup, so by definition it is expected to be the most competitive in the first round. The 10-2 Buckeyes were considered to be amongst the top teams in the country until being upset by Michigan a few weeks ago, and it seems like that forced everyone to view Ohio St. thru a whole new prism. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Volunteers can look back at a mid-October upset of Alabama as a huge reason why they’re here now. However, that’s all they really have to hang their hat on. Otherwise the schedule was rather prosaic. Georgia beat Tennessee by two touchdowns, and I think that’s the level Ohio St. is on. I’d love to be wrong. Rockytop brings alot of energy to the table. At the end of the day though, I believe the home team gets it done by ten points. To my utter shock & amazement Zach agrees that the Buckeyes are likely unhappy about how they’ve been talked about recently and will use that as motivation to win easily.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Ohio St.
Philadelphia (-3) at Washington
Our only NFL game this week is an NFC East battle, although the division title has been pretty much decided. The 12-2 Eagles have won ten straight and will win the division, but they have their eyes on the NFC’s top seed & first round bye. The 9-5 Commanders are in the driver’s seat for a wildcard berth, but are far from a lock. I really like rookie QB Jayden Daniels and can see big things for him in the future if the front office continues to build a great team. However, sometimes one just has to be patient and wait for your turn, and it’s not Washington’s time right now. Philly is playing on a different level, and anything short of the Super Bowl will be a disappointment. RB Saquon Barkley may be the best free agent acquisition of the past decade, recapturing the magic that made him a 2017 Heisman finalist at Penn St. and reinvigorating a career that stalled over six seasons with the NY Giants. When these teams met in Philadelphia last month the Eagles won by 12, and I expect something similar now. Zach concurs.
The Manofesto 