The NFL schedule is already underway, with the Chargers defeating Minnesota last night. The World Series begins tonight. Dodgers vs. Blue Jays. Absolutely zero interest. The NBA season started this week as well. I’ll check in on that in January. When I’m not watching football in the next week I’ll be embracing the spirit of Halloween, although that probably doesn’t look the same in my world as it does in yours. More on that later. In the meantime, we continue on our gridiron journey.
Observations from Last Week:
Vanderbilt?!?!?? Really?!?!?? Vanderbilt is good at football now?? When did that happen??
I stand corrected…Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti just signed a long term deal to stay at with the Hoosiers. That’s probably a wise decision for all involved.
Finally, the Billy Napier Era at Florida is over. He was 22-23 in 3 1/2 seasons. At West Virginia he probably would’ve received a contract extension.
I saw a quote that said “Mike Tomlin is the James Franklin of the NFL”, and while I believe it is an apt comparison, the difference is that, unlike Penn St., the Steelers don’t have the courage to do what needs to be done.
Justin Herbert looked more like Justin Sherbet in that Chargers’ alternative uniform.
My Season: 24-22
Zach’s Season: 15-31
Boise State (-21.5) at Nevada
I always get the Nevada Wolfpack & the UNLV Rebels mixed up. Boise beat UNLV last weekend, and that might’ve been a better game to pick. Atleast it was high scoring (whoever took the over won some $$). The Broncos are 5-2 and sit atop the Mountain West in their final season in that conference, although they can’t let their foot off the gas since there are a couple of teams in hot pursuit. Nevada is a putrid 1-6, with their only win being over an FCS opponent. The Wolfpack does have the home field, but no one expects that to make much of a difference. The only question is Boise’s margin of victory. I am always wary of a 3+ TD spread, but in this case I think the favorites can get there. Zach has some concerns about Boise’s defense, but he thinks they’ll win big anyway.
My Pick: Boise St.
Zach’s Pick: Boise St.
Kansas State at Kansas (-3)
It’s the Sunflower Showdown, which sounds a little wimpy for a football game. It’ll be the 123rd meeting since 1902, with Kansas leading the series 65-52-5, although State has won the past 16 games. Sixteen!! That’s quite a winning streak. I had higher hopes for the 3-4 Wildcats, but it isn’t the first time they’ve disappointed me. Meanwhile, after a malaise of nearly two decades the Jayhawks looked like they’d figured things out last season. However, now, sitting at 3-4, it feels like they may have regressed. So, can visiting underdogs go into hostile territory and continue what has to be one of the longest current win streaks in a rivalry game?? I think Kansas is on the right track in the grand scheme of things, but when it comes to this matchup I see no reason to believe the streak will be broken. Conversely, Zach expects Kansas’ offensive firepower to get the job done.
My Pick: Kansas St.
Zach’s Pick: Kansas
Ole Miss at Oklahoma (-4.5)
With the exception of the Red River Shootout, the loss of which could legitimately be blamed on QB John Mateer not being 100% after an injury, the 6-1 Sooners have been impressive, although the back half of their schedule is challenging. I feel like we’ve been sleeping on the 6-1 Rebels, despite their 4th quarter implosion at Georgia last week. I’m a little surprised that ESPN didn’t choose this one for Gameday, but I don’t know what factors into those decisions. It’s a Noon kickoff, which feels disrespectful. The underdogs have been in some pretty close contests and won, so I believe they’ll keep things interesting, but with Mateer’s health improving I think Oklahoma is probably a touchdown better. Zach, on the other hand, is a big fan of head coach Lane Kiffin and believes he’ll have some things up his sleeve to lead the visiting underdogs to an upset.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss
NY Giants at Philadelphia (-10.5)
The Eagles have a two game lead in the NFC East, and the Giants have no chance to maneuver themselves into playoff position. However, since pulling the trigger on making rookie Jaxson Dart the starting QB the G-Men have shown flashes of…something. With Dart under center, folk hero Cam Skattebo toting the rock, and receiver Malik Nabers at receiver, there is a very strong core for future success, but Nabers tore his ACL and those other guys are rookies, so everything is on hold. Meanwhile, Philly is 5-2 and leads their division, but they’ve lost 2 out of the last 3 games and something feels…off. Could this be a classic trap game?? The Giants could easily be 4-3 instead of 2-5, while the Eagles have had the ball bounce their way a few times at key moments. It’s not the smart move, but The Vibes smell an upset…or atleast a much closer game than most expect. Zach doesn’t expect an upset, but he agrees that it’ll be a close game.
My Pick: NY Giants
Zach’s Pick: NY Giants
Dallas at Denver (-4.5)
I will reluctantly give credit not only to the 3-3-1 Cowboys, but also to receiver George Pickens. As a Steelers fan I was hoping Pickens would implode in Dallas, but that hasn’t happened. If it weren’t for one of the worst defenses in the NFL the Cowboys’ record would certainly be much better. The 5-2 Broncos have been better than I anticipated and currently lead the AFC West, with two games against the Kansas City Chiefs still on the schedule. The home field is significant, and I have no faith in Dallas’ defense, so I expect QB Bo Nix to pick them apart. The Cowboys offense will keep it close for awhile, but Denver should pull away late for a double digit win. Zach is rolling the dice on Dak Prescott and his tremendous weapons to somehow pull off a mild surprise.
I’ve never done a ton of research or crunched a bunch of data for this poll. I am not a sports journalist and I’m not getting paid for my thoughts, but as a football fan it’s a fun little project. If my forecast is off base we get a good laugh, and when I am occasionally accurate with predictions I can bask in the illusion that I know what I’m talking about. Having said that, it has become increasingly difficult to know what to expect from teams unless you are one of those “experts” who has intimate knowledge of a wide array of players that you’ve kept track of since they were initially recruited out of high school. In the past one could look at information like the number of returning starters or the previous season’s stats of a team’s senior QB. Perhaps it wasn’t a top factor, but experience used to atleast be a fairly good indicator for success. Now?? Most teams see their roster almost completely overhauled every year. Dozens of players transfer out, dozens transfer in. College football is a free-for-all, and that’s before we even try to figure out which conferences still exist and what teams play where. You know what though?? Soon enough, on each Saturday during the fall, dozens of stadiums will be filled with thousands of people, while millions vegg out at home glued to their television enjoying the action. Despite the greed, chaos, and collapse of tradition that has engulfed collegiate athletics in the past decade, we still love it. We keep coming back. We’re a captive audience and the powers-that-be know it. Perhaps a good therapist could help, but in lieu of that we’ll just plow forward and enjoy our glorious football weekends. Perhaps not as much as we once did, but still enough to give a damn.
The Sun Devils won the Big 12 a season ago before narrowly losing to Texas in the CFP. Second team All Big 12 QB Sam Leavitt & conference Newcomer of the Year receiver Jordyn Tyson are back, along with a good offensive line and a solid core on defense. Star RB Cam Skattebo has moved on to the NFL, which means potential Top 10 draft pick Leavitt will have to kick it up a notch. Given the tough road schedule I believe it’ll be difficult to match last year’s success.
The War Eagles have suffered thru four consecutive losing seasons and haven’t had double digit victories since 2017. Head coach Hugh Freeze is likely coaching for his job. New QB Jackson Arnold hopes to reenergize his career, which stalled at Oklahoma. I believe Auburn has a chance to score a couple of big upsets, which could get them to eight wins and a spot in the final poll.
23 Michigan
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/6 @ Oklahoma, 10/11 @ USC, 11/29 vs. Ohio St.
A season after winning the National Championship the Wolverines fell to seventh place in the Big Ten and lost to Alabama in a meaningless bowl game. It was head coach Sherrone Moore’s inaugural season, and to his credit he made some changes after a lackluster finish. New offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey has held the same position at places like Auburn, UCF, & North Carolina, and he’ll have five star recruit Bryce Underwood as his starting QB. I am more concerned with Michigan’s defense, which lost three key starters in the first couple rounds of the NFL Draft. Moore & defensive coordinator Wink Martindale (who has a Super Bowl ring from his time on the staff of the Baltimore Ravens more than a decade ago) have their work cut out for them competing in one of the two elite conferences.
22 Boise State
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 10/4 @ Notre Dame
The Broncos ended last year being handled by Penn St. in the playoff, but back in September they upset Oregon and concluded the season as Mountain West champions. Can they blow thru the conference again?? Do they have a realistic opportunity to defeat Notre Dame in South Bend?? We’ll see.
21 Southern Methodist
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/6 vs. Baylor, 10/11 vs. Stanford, 11/1 vs. Miami
The Mustangs almost upset Clemson in the ACC title game, which was good enough for an at-large bid to the CFP. Of course Penn St. beat the snot out of them in the first round, causing many to question the validity of their berth. If they can pull off a couple of big upsets at home SMU could find themselves in that mix once again.
The Wildcats stumbled down the stretch last season, losing 3 of their final 4 regular season games before rallying past Rutgers in a bowl game fourth quarter comeback. They must replace running back DJ Giddens, now plying his trade with the Indianapolis Colts, but QB Avery Johnson returns for his junior year. Johnson replaced Will Howard a year ago after he transferred to Ohio St. K-State has won atleast nine games three seasons in a row, but their middle-of-the-pack defense will need to improve significantly if they want to match that this year. We’ll know alot more about their team and the Big 12 in general after Iowa St. & K-State do battle in Ireland during the season’s inaugural weekend.
The Gators had a tough season last year, but finished riding a four game winning streak. Quarterback DJ Lagway was 6-1 as a starter a season ago, which is a valid reason to be optimistic. Head coach Billy Napier enters his 4th season in Gainesville with a .500 record, which isn’t good enough. This feels like a make or break year for him.
18 Nebraska
Last Season: 7-6
Key Games: 9/20 vs. Michigan, 11/1 vs. USC, 11/28 vs. Iowa
The Cornhuskers finished with a positive record last season only after winning the Pinstripe Bowl. I am old enough to remember when Nebraska was in the upper echelon of college football, but they haven’t been relevant for atleast a decade. Matt Rhule is another coach on the hot seat after going 12-13 in his first two seasons. He’s brought in former WVU coach Dana Holgersen to be the offensive coordinator, which might pay immediate dividends with QB Dylan Raiola behind center. New defensive coordinator John Butler was on the staff of the Buffalo Bills the last couple of years, and he’ll need to make sure that unit is atleast as good as they were last season…preferably better.
To the surprise of absolutely no one with a brain the Sooners struggled in their inaugural SEC campaign. A decade from now I believe there will be enough data to definitively conclude that leaving the Big 12 was a terrible mistake for Oklahoma & Texas…but clearly worse for Oklahoma. Head coach Brent Venables is 22-17 is his four years at the helm in Norman, so he’s yet another guy whose seat is probably getting rather warm. Last season he benched starting QB Jackson Arnold (who has since transferred to Auburn) in favor of true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who went 1-4 as the starter. Now John Mateer, formerly of Washington St., has headed south alongside offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle, so it’s literally a whole new ballgame at OU. Venables made his bones as a defensive coordinator at Clemson, so I think that side of the ball has to win some big games for Oklahoma to be successful.
16 South Carolina
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/20 @ Missouri, 10/11 @ LSU, 10/25 vs. Alabama, 11/29 vs. Clemson
Are my expectations way too high for the Gamecocks?? Probably. The schedule is brutal, and they lost five defensive starters in the NFL Draft. However, I really like QB LaNorris Sellers, who will be in the Heisman conversation before too long. Are a couple of stunning upsets on the horizon?? Don’t be shocked.
Once upon a time USC being a Top Ten championship contender was an annual inevitability, but they’ve only achieved double digit victories thrice in the past decade. Their move to the Big Ten was another huge misstep in the absurdity that has damaged collegiate athletics, but there’s no use crying over spilt milk. Defense will need to dominate, which is asking alot from a unit that ranked near the bottom of the conference a year ago. Still, even one big upset and a slight improvement over last year’s win total could land the Trojans in the final poll.
The Red Raiders are, much of the time, the most overlooked football team in Texas, which is understandable. However, they have had sporadic success and produced a few notable NFL talents, like QB Patrick Mahomes. You may have heard of him. Anyway, I feel like the Big 12 is wide open, just waiting for a team to emerge and become the new standard bearer. Of course the issue is that there are probably a half dozen teams that seem poised to seize that opportunity, making for a very competitive situation.
While the Tigers will have several new skill players on the roster they return a solid offensive line, which is arguably more important. One of their key additions from the portal is 2024 Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Josiah Trotter, formerly of the WVU Mountaineers. If the name sounds familiar it’s because he is the son of former Philadelphia Eagle Jeremiah Trotter and the brother of current Eagle Jeremiah Trotter Jr. It’s a huge loss for West Virginia because I believe Trotter will ball out and help Missouri’s defense rank near the top of the SEC. Missouri kind of snuck up on folks a season ago, but perhaps this year they won’t need to do that.
12 Miami (FL)
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 8/31 vs. Notre Dame, 9/20 vs. Florida, 11/1 @ SMU
The Hurricanes looked like a CFB contender for most of last season until losing 3 out of their last 4 (including the bowl game). They must replace their top four receivers from a year ago, and a new defensive coordinator will change things up a bit. Former starting QB Cam Ward was the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft, but head coach Mario Cristobal pulled off the heist of the offseason by grabbing former Georgia QB Carson Beck from the portal. There is no question about talent in Coral Gables, it’s just a matter of developing chemistry amongst all the moving parts.
11 Georgia
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/27 vs. Alabama, 11/1 vs. Florida, 11/15 vs. Texas
You may be surprised to see the Bulldogs this low after they’ve had four consecutive double digit win seasons and won two out of the last four national championships. I just have a vibe…a feeling that the SEC is as competitive as it’s ever been and it is inevitable that a great team will have a slightly down year or two. Thirteen Bulldogs were drafted into the NFL, and QB Carson Beck transferred to Miami (FL). New signal caller Gunner Stockton has seen plenty of game action in the past, but I can’t help but think Georgia faces an uphill climb to compete for another conference title.
10 Clemson
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: 10/4 @ North Carolina, 10/18 vs. SMU, 11/29 @ South Carolina
I am really looking forward to Clemson vs. UNC, which happens one day before my birthday in October. Dabo Swinney vs. Bill Belichick…a total contrast in styles in every conceivable way. Hopefully Dabo opens up a can of whoopass on Ol’ Sourpuss, who’ll need to be consoled by his adolescent concubine. Anyway, we’ve kind of overlooked the Tigers the last few years after they fell off a bit from six consecutive appearances in the four team CFP that resulted in two national championships. In 2024 they were back in the playoff, losing to Texas in Round 1 after winning the ACC title. I expect similar results this year.
9 Alabama
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/27 @ Georgia, 10/18 vs. Tennessee, 10/25 @ South Carolina, 11/8 vs. LSU
Head coach Kalen DeBoer didn’t do too bad in his first year at the helm in Tuscaloosa, but “not too bad” is a stinging rebuke in those parts. Replacing a legend like Nick Saban is a tall order, and it remains to be seen if DeBoer is the long term solution. More than two dozen players departed via the portal, while seven were drafted into the NFL. The schedule is tough, and I’ll be very surprised if the Tide rolls into the SEC title game. Still, it is oddly amusing that a Top Ten finish might be seen as a disappointment.
8 Iowa State
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 8/23 vs. Kansas St., 11/1 vs. Arizona St., 11/29 @ Oklahoma St.
At 6ft.1, 210lbs. Rocco Becht might not have a foolproof future as an NFL quarterback, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a hell of a college player. The Cyclones have to replace alot of talent along the offensive line and in the secondary, but I see no reason not to expect double digit victories and perhaps a Big 12 title. We’ll know more right out of the gate, as Iowa St. faces Kansas St. in the only noteworthy game during “Week Zero”.
7 Ohio State
Last Season: 14-2
Key Games: 8/30 vs. Texas, 11/1 vs. Penn St., 11/29 @ Michigan
We’ll know quickly whether or not the defending national champions are up to the task of preserving that title. The Buckeyes had 14 players selected in the NFL Draft, including four in the first round. They’ve had several talented wide receivers thru the years, and sophomore Jeremiah Smith might end up being one of the best. However, when I look at the schedule, the players they lost, and the strength of the Big Ten, I’m not sure Ohio St. can equal last season’s success. As a matter of fact, I am probably overrating them.
One of the most surprising events of the offseason was Vols’ starting QB Nico Iamaleava transferring to UCLA after a disagreement about NIL money. Unfortunately such things are part of our new reality. Anyway, the new QB is Joey Aguilar, who is 24 years old and threw for over 6700 yards & 56 touchdowns in two years at Appalachian St. Tennessee was second in total defense in the SEC a season ago, and if they can maintain that intensity I believe there are some conference powerhouses that feel beatable this year.
5 Penn State
Last Season: 13-3
Key Games: 9/27 vs. Oregon, 11/1 @ Ohio St.
Full disclosure…I do not perceive Drew Allar as a future top tier NFL quarterback. We can revisit that assessment in a few years. Meanwhile, I do believe Allar is a perfectly fine college QB with plenty of experience and two bitter memories to avenge. The Nittany Lions fell short in the Big Ten title game a season ago, then, after receiving an at large bid to the CFP, Allar threw an interception with 30 seconds left in the semifinal game that set up a field goal victory for Notre Dame. Players can either be destroyed by such calamities, or they can grow thru them. I’ll be stunned if Penn St. doesn’t win atleast ten games, with the biggest mountains to climb a revenge game against Oregon in the cozy confines of Happy Valley, and a daunting trip to The Horseshoe against the defending national champions. I don’t even think they need to win both of those games. Win just one and they’ll snag a playoff berth. Of course winning the conference title and receiving a first round bye in the CFP would be the most accommodating path.
4 LSU
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 8/30 @ Clemson, 10/11 vs. South Carolina, 11/8 @ Alabama
My nephew Noah has high hopes for the Bayou Bengals, and I trust his judgment. LSU suffered a brutal three game losing streak late last season that torpedoed all of their hopes. Of course starting out by losing the season opener to a Southern Cal team that’d end up being 7-6 didn’t bode well either. It’s a new day in Baton Rouge though. QB Garrett Nussmeier’s father Doug played the same position for the New Orleans Saints and now serves as their offensive coordinator. Coaches’ kids are just built different, so despite what the sports media will undoubtedly try to sell ad nauseum this autumn, Nussmeier may be the best quarterback in college football and the best pro prospect. LSU lost seven players in the NFL Draft, and their 11th ranked SEC defense needs to improve, but I’ve got a good vibe. The season opener at Clemson is huge, so don’t miss it.
Arch Manning. You’ve probably heard the quarterback’s name mentioned a few thousand times the last couple of years, despite the fact that he hasn’t actually accomplished much. Look, I get it. His grandfather is a quasi-legend. His two uncles are both Super Bowl winning Hall of Famers. The bloodline is epic. But now it’s time to put up or shut up for young Arch. Fortunately he is surrounded by elite talent, despite the Longhorns losing a dozen players in the NFL Draft (it should’ve been 13, but that’s another story). The schedule makers obviously have a sense of humor (or an agenda), because the same Ohio St. Buckeyes that defeated Texas in the CFP semifinals last season will host them in the opener. I do not believe a loss destroys either team, nor do I think a victory preemptively crowns them. However, we can’t deny that it’ll set a tone.
2 Oregon
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 9/27 @ Penn St.
It had to be a crushing blow for the Ducks. In their inaugural Big Ten season they are 13-0 and win the conference title…then get manhandled from the jump by an Ohio St. team they’d beaten a couple of months earlier. I’ll be surprised by anything less than ten wins, with everything riding on a late September visit to Happy Valley. QB Dante Moore leveled up by transferring from UCLA, and he’s just one of many new faces in Eugene. Ten former Ducks went in the NFL Draft, and their was a ton of portal activity, both incoming & outgoing. Like many other programs, it is probably unfair to judge Oregon based on last year because it’s almost a whole new team. That being said, I have faith in head coach Dan Lanning to assemble all the right puzzle pieces and guide them down the right path.
It physically hurts me to do this. I’ve always had a vague disdain for Notre Dame for various reasons and almost always root against them. However, I cannot deny that, despite their stubborn refusal to join a conference that looks much more astute with each passing year and the tediously fawning sports media, the Fighting Irish remain legitimately relevant year after year. Last season they made it all the way to the CFP championship game before a terrible second quarter doomed them to defeat. Not only do I not believe they’ll suffer an inexcusable loss as they did during last year’s regular season (Northern Illinois?? REALLY??), but if Notre Dame gets out of the gate 2-0 then batten down the hatches. Replacing Riley Leonard at QB won’t be easy, but it’s not as if he was Montana or Theismann. RB Jeremiyah Love will be invited to the Heisman ceremony (before losing out to a quarterback). Only six Irish players were selected in the NFL Draft (none of them in the first round), so it feels like there is a real opportunity to be even better than last year. The only question is if they can get over the hump and take that final step to the first Notre Dame championship since 1988. Somehow, in the midst of conference realignment, NIL free agency, ESPN devouring the sports world like Godzilla, and vacuous talking heads fellatiating the SEC and the Big Ten, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have almost become venerable underdogs. How the hell did that happen?!?!??
We kept our head above water doing bonus picks a week ago, with point spreads playing a key role in flipping several outcomes one way or the other. I’m glad not to be a gambler because I can imagine having a half point ruin your day could be rather frustrating. At any rate, I extended my season lead by one game, while Zach is one game closer to getting back to the .500 mark. We are each in the same general ballpark as this identical point a year ago.
My Season: 28-24
Zach’s Season: 24-28
Notre Dame (-12.5) vs. Navy
Don’t look now, but two of the service academy football teams are undefeated (sorry about your damn luck Air Force). Party like it’s 1946!! In the grand scheme of things that probably doesn’t mean much since it is doubtful they’d be considered playoff worthy, but it could make the Army-Navy game more consequential than it’s been in quite some time. We’re several weeks away from that though. Meanwhile, the 6-1 Irish are praying that an inexplicable September loss to Northern Illinois doesn’t torpedo their playoff aspirations. This rivalry dates back to 1927, with Notre Dame winning 80 of the 96 meetings. The Midshipmen last won in 2016. For some strange reason the game is being played at the NFL home of the Jets & Giants in New Jersey, meaning it’ll be the most entertaining contest those fans have seen all year. As much as I’d love to predict an upset I cannot imagine Navy overcoming what I assume is a notable disadvantage in size, speed, and athleticism. I’d love to be wrong. Zach believes Notre Dame being overrated is business as usual, and he thinks Navy can hang with them by running the ball and controlling the clock.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Zach’s Pick: Navy
Kansas at Kansas State (-9.5)
They call it the Sunflower Showdown, with the victor taking possession of the Governor’s Cup. It is actually the 4th longest active rivalry in college football (thanks realignment 🙄), with the Jayhawks leading the overall series despite the fact that the Wildcats have won the last 15 meetings dating back to 2009. State is 6-1 and has the home field, while 2-5 KU has to be disappointed with how things have gone thus far after winning nine games a season ago. I predicted K-St. would compete for the conference title, and they’re on pace to be in that mix. Zach doesn’t feel like it’ll be particularly close.
My Pick: Kansas St.
Zach’s Pick: Kansas St.
Illinois at Oregon (-21.5)
The 6-1 Illini announced their presence with authority last weekend, beating Michigan by two touchdowns. Not to be outdone, the undefeated Ducks sit atop the rankings with victories over Ohio St. and…well, okay, they beat Ohio St. and share the Big Ten lead with Indiana. I’d be surprised if Oregon lost at home, but the points concern me. Is Illinois for real?? They don’t have to win the game to gain that legitimacy, but they do need to be competitive. I don’t feel strongly either way, but I’ll roll the dice on the visitors keeping things respectable. Zach has been impressed by Illinois and agrees it won’t be as easy for Oregon as some might assume.
My Pick: Illinois
Zach’s Pick: Illinois
Chicago (-2.5) at Washington
It’s supposed to be a marquee matchup pitting #1 overall pick Caleb Williams against #2 overall pick Jayden Daniels, but the Commanders’ rookie QB suffered a rib injury last weekend so his status for this game remains a bit murky. Daniels, to the surprise of no one who pays attention, has been the more exciting & impactful signal caller thus far, leading his team to a 5-2 record and the NFC East lead. Williams has the Bears looking much improved at 4-2, though they have the misfortune of playing in the NFL’s most competitive division. I’m not a Vegas insider, but it isn’t difficult to figure out that the points are all about Daniels’ questionable status. If he plays and is unencumbered by the injury Washington is a clear favorite at home, but if backup QB Marcus Mariota is under center then things obviously tilt toward Chicago. Can Jayden Daniels channel 1997 NBA Finals Michael Jordan?? Holy schneikes that’d be freakin’ cool. Zach has always been more complimentary to Williams than I’ve been, but he likes the Commanders to score the slight upset.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
Dallas at San Francisco (-4.5)
The cool thing about this rivalry is that it isn’t completely about nostalgia. Oh sure, those of us old enough to remember legendary names like Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Jimmy Johnson, Emmitt Smith, Brent Jones, and Deion Sanders in their heyday become a bit sentimental about the classic skirmishes of the past, but the matchup always feels just as relevant as it did decades ago. The 3-4, injury plagued Niners have struggled more than anyone could’ve ever anticipated a few months ago but sit just one game out of the division lead. It’s a similar story for the 3-3 Cowboys, who are currently in third place in the NFC East. They are coming out of their bye week though, which probably offsets Frisco’s home field. It’s the Sunday night game on NBC and will likely get good ratings. I am somewhat surprised that Dallas isn’t favored even though they’re on the road, but watching Jerry Jones get ridiculed by the sports media is delightfully hilarious. Zach doesn’t have a positive impression of either team, but he thinks San Francisco sucks less than the Cowboys right now.
Folks, I don’t even know where to begin. I seriously contemplated not even doing a pre-season poll this year because, quite frankly, I’m not that excited about college football anymore. Money & politics have stained the sport, and I am simply too old to retain my usual level of plucky enthusiasm. A year ago I stated that “I will not let university suits or TV execs steal my joy”, but now I cannot deny that my fervor for the game has indeed significantly diminished. I can’t keep straight what conference half of these teams are members of anymore, and don’t have much interest in learning. I know that the Power 5 is now the Power 4 because the Pac 12 imploded. Perhaps in the long run that will be helpful in sorting out the playoff, but at the moment I perceive it as more dunking on tradition, whatever scraps of that may remain. Surely not a whole hell of alot. I am not even going to try to explain the new playoff format beyond its expansion from four to twelve teams, which neuters the impact of the regular season beyond its function as a time waster for couch potatoes with empty lives (like me) and a great excuse to get drunk for college students & rednecks in a state of arrested development. At any rate, let’s dive in!!
25 Southern Cal
Last Season: 8-5 (Won the Holiday Bowl)
Key Games: 9/1 vs. LSU, 9/21 @ Michigan, 11/30 vs. Notre Dame
Head coach Lincoln Riley came to USC with much fanfare, but in two seasons with future NFL bust Caleb Williams at QB he has achieved an unimpressive 19-8 record. Moving to the Big Ten won’t make things any easier, but sports media will prop up the Trojans if they can pull off an upset or two.
24 Iowa State
Last Season: 7-6 (Defeated in the Liberty Bowl)
Key Games: 10/5 vs. Baylor, 11/30 vs. Kansas St.
I went to high school with the mother & aunt of Cyclones’ QB Rocco Becht, and his father was a talented tight end for my WV Mountaineers in the late 90’s who had a solid career in the NFL. So are my expectations filtered thru rose colored glasses?? Perhaps, but I think the new Big 12 is intriguing and could provide a few surprises.
23 Tennessee
Last Season: 9-4 (Beat Iowa in the Citrus Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 @ Oklahoma, 11/16 @ Georgia
If you listen to the talking heads they’ll have half of the SEC ranked in the Top Ten, but the truth is that someone will lose a game or two. Word on the street is that sophomore QB Nico Iamaleava is an upgrade over Joe Milton, who is now plying his trade with the New England Patriots. We’ll see.
22 Miami (FL)
Last Season: 7-6 (Lost to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl)
Key Games: 10/14 @ North Carolina, 11/11 @ Florida St., 11/18 vs. Louisville
I don’t believe the ‘Canes will ever again be the dominant force that sat atop the college football world for much of the 1980s & ‘90s, but improving by a couple of games in a mediocre ACC is doable. They’ll need to beat atleast one favored opponent on the road.
21 Arizona
Last Season: 10-3 (Beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl)
Key Games: 9/13 @ Kansas St., 9/28 @ Utah
The Wildcats land in the…*checks notes*…Big 12, and they could have some early success. If you forced me at gunpoint to say something positive about realignment I might point to fresh matchups in which no one really knows what to expect. Arizona vs. BYU. Arizona vs. West Virginia. Arizona vs. UCF. I don’t think they’ll compete for a conference title or playoff berth, but matching last season’s success seems like a reasonable expectation.
20 Virginia Tech
Last Season: 7-6 (Beat Tulane in the Military Bowl)
Key Games: 9/27 @ Miami (FL), 11/9 vs. Clemson
The Hokies haven’t won 9+ games since 2017, and have had three head coaches since Frank Beamer retired in 2015. They improved tremendously in Year 2 under Brent Pry, and it doesn’t feel outlandish to expect further development, especially in a pedestrian ACC. Keep an eye on Clemson’s November visit to Blacksburg. The winner of that game could emerge as a conference title contender.
19 Texas
Last Season: 12-2 (Defeated in the CFP Semis by Washington)
Key Games: 9/7 @ Michigan, 10/2 vs. Oklahoma, 10/19 vs. Georgia
Well ‘Horns fans, you got what you wished for. Now it’s time to back up all the bragging & trash talk on the field against SEC opponents. Not only that, but the non-conference schedule features a visit to Ann Arbor to battle the defending national champions. The talent is unquestionable, but the path is treacherous. A playoff berth seems unlikely, but 9 or 10 wins doesn’t feel out of reach.
18 North Carolina State
Last Season: 9-4 (Lost the Pop Tarts Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 @ Clemson, 11/30 @ North Carolina
I can’t decide if the ACC is a model of parity or simply tedious. I am feeling generous so let’s call it more of the former than the latter. If the Wolfpack wants to equal the success of last season they’ll need to have some great games on the road.
17 Penn State
Last Season: 10-3 (Lost to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl)
Key Games: 10/12 @ USC, 11/2 @ Ohio St.
The Nittany Lions are amongst a plethora of teams that perpetually reside on the second level of college football. They’ll win alot more games than they lose and always field a talented team theoretically capable of beating just about anyone, but never quite reach elite status which would allow them to be perceived as a legit playoff contender. Ten wins and a solid bowl berth seems to be their ceiling.
16 Michigan
Last Season: 15-0 (CFP National Champions)
Key Games: 9/7 vs. Texas, 9/21 vs. USC, 11/2 vs. Oregon, 11/30 @ Ohio St.
I don’t believe that the loss of head coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL means that the defending national champions will crumble & slink away into obscurity, but they are unlikely to be serious title contenders. I suppose they could sneak into the playoff, but even that feels like a bit much to ask. They’ll lose atleast one huge game in The Big House.
15 LSU
Last Season: 10-3 (Beat Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl)
Key Games: 9/1 vs. USC, 11/9 vs. Alabama
I’ll be honest…this one makes me nervous. I never know what to expect from the Bayou Bengals. That being said, head coach Brian Kelly has had two consecutive ten win seasons since arriving in Baton Rouge. Opening against USC in Death Valley might be the most intriguing matchup of the first full weekend of action, and they also host ‘Bama in November. Can they match last season’s success?? We’ll see.
14 Boise State
Last Season: 8-6 (Lost the LA Bowl)
Key Games: 10/25 @ UNLV, 11/29 vs. Oregon St.
The Broncos are back!! After a couple of underwhelming seasons and a coaching change Boise has rebounded the past two years and won the Mountain West title a season ago, their first championship since 2019. I don’t expect them to upset Oregon in Eugene, but that’s a Week 2 non-conference battle. Their focus should be on winning ten games & another conference championship.
13 Appalachian State
Last Season: 9-5 (Won the New Mexico Bowl)
Key Games: 9/28 vs. Liberty, 11/23 vs. James Madison
The overhyped teams in the power conferences will beat each other up. Only one or two might emerge unscathed. That leaves room for a Group of 5 team (or two) to rise thru the rankings a bit. I believe the highest ranked conference champion of those “lesser” conferences is guaranteed a playoff berth. A year ago that would’ve been the C-USA champion Liberty Flames, but I’m predicting a horse race between Boise St. & the Sun Belt’s Appalachian St. The Mountaineers’ two key games are both in the cozy confines of Boone, NC.
12 Alabama
Last Season: 12-2 (Defeated in the CFP Semis by Michigan)
In case you hadn’t heard, Nick Saban is no longer the head coach at Alabama. He simply had nothing left to prove. New coach Kalen DeBoer is no slouch, having won 25 games the past two years with the Washington Huskies, including an appearance in last season’s CFP Title game. I don’t believe we’ll see that much of a decline for The Tide. Saban surely didn’t leave the cupboard bare. However, I think it is too much to expect an undefeated championship caliber effort out of the gate. Fans in Tuscaloosa will need to settle for a solid record & a playoff appearance.
11 Oregon
Last Season: 12-2 (Won the Fiesta Bowl)
Key Games: 10/12 vs. Ohio St., 11/2 @ Michigan
Expectations are thru the roof for the Ducks heading into their inaugural season in the…*checks notes*…Big Ten, but I’m not buying it. I don’t believe this is the team that walks into a new, STACKED conference and wins a title. They will not beat Ohio St., and upsetting Michigan in The Big House is a tall order. Ten wins & a playoff berth is the ceiling for Oregon right now.
10 Clemson
Last Season: 9-4 (Beat Kentucky in the Gator Bowl)
Key Games: 10/5 @ Florida St., 11/9 @ Virginia Tech
The Tigers have not lived up to their lofty standards the past few years, last making a playoff appearance in 2020. That is likely to change with the new format, but I’m still not convinced they are serious title contenders. Of course the first task is to win the ACC, which means the game in Tallahassee on my birthday is a must win.
9 Missouri
Last Season: 11-2 (Beat Ohio St. in the Cotton Bowl)
Key Games: 10/5 @ Texas A&M, 10/26 @ Alabama
It is easy for the Tigers to get lost in the SEC shuffle, but a season ago they announced their presence with authority, with wins over Tennessee & Florida. I’m not sure how much credence to give their defeat of Ohio St. in the Cotton Bowl considering alot of the Buckeyes’ firepower was MIA, but it looks good on paper. Can Missouri mirror that success this year?? Don’t overlook their late season visit to Tuscaloosa. If there was ever a time to make a powerful statement that’d be it.
8 Mississippi
Last Season: 11-2 (Beat Penn St. in the Peach Bowl)
I will freely admit to caving into peer pressure on this one. The Rebels are getting a ton of preseason love from almost every outlet, so I assume where there’s smoke there has to be some fire. Still, visits to Tuscaloosa in September and Athens in October seem daunting. Winning both games, though a gargantuan task, would certainly secure a Top Ten ranking. Heck, pulling off just one upset would grab some attention. The linchpin to the entire season might just be hosting LSU only one week after visiting ‘Bama. The loser of that game probably tanks their playoff aspirations.
7 Oklahoma State
Last Season: 10-4 (Won the Texas Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 vs. Utah, 9/28 @ Kansas St.
Okay, okay…I actually did some research so I’d get this right. The Big 12 lost Texas & Oklahoma while gaining Arizona, Arizona St., Utah, and Colorado, and you’ll recall that Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, and Central Florida joined a year ago. What all of that boils down to is an opportunity to seize the top spot & become the new standard bearer for the conference. The Cowboys were in the mix last season, but they’re probably going to face a tough battle with newcomer Utah for conference supremacy. The Utes visit Stillwater in September. Don’t sleep on that game.
6 Florida State
Last Season: 13-1 (Obliterated by Georgia in the Orange Bowl)
After several years of mediocrity the Seminoles have rebounded the last couple of seasons, coming within a whisper of the playoff last year. It is likely that they would’ve received the nod if not for a serious injury to QB Jordan Travis, although the beatdown they received in the Orange Bowl caused people to wonder if it was all a mirage anyway. Travis has moved on to the NFL now, and Florida St. has the opportunity to answer any lingering doubts. They’re still in the ACC (for now), which is a double-edged sword. On one hand Clemson is probably the only obstacle to winning a conference title. Conversely, that title doesn’t earn much respect these days. A November trek to South Bend looks like the pivotal moment of their championship dreams.
The Fighting Irish will always be in the playoff conversation given their much ballyhooed history & independent status. An at-large bid is likely reserved in their name as long as they hover near the top half of the rankings. Perhaps I am being naive, but trips to College Station, TX & The Coliseum in L.A. don’t feel that intimidating. I believe Notre Dame wins both games. Hosting Florida St. to end the season is helpful, but it is also a classic trap game.
4 Kansas State
Last Season: 9-4 (Beat NC St. in the Pop Tarts Bowl)
Key Games: 9/28 vs. Oklahoma St., 11/30 @ Iowa St.
While Oklahoma St. will be in the Big 12 mix I foresee the Wildcats being the old school Big 12 team that’ll fend off (almost) all the newcomers. Winning on the road in Ames, IA to close the season is a tough mountain to climb, but I think it’ll clinch a conference title game appearance for K St. Undefeated?? It’s possible…until the playoff. They are not a legit national championship contender.
3 Ohio State
Last Season: 11-2 (Beaten by Missouri in the Cotton Bowl)
Key Games: 10/12 @ Oregon, 11/2 @ Penn St., 11/30 vs. Michigan
The Buckeyes lost some talented players to the NFL & in the transfer portal, but they also added a ton of five star recruits & well-regarded transfers. Not only do most expect them to not miss a beat, but it seems probable that they’ve actually gotten better. The Big Ten situation is a catch-22. On one hand changes at Michigan mean that they are unlikely to be as dominant and Ohio St. will probably be favored in that matchup. On the other hand, the conference has added Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington, so the path to a title is even tougher. I don’t know if undefeated is a realistic goal, but I am not sure it matters that much. Survive & advance to the Big Ten title game. Win the conference championship and receive a first round playoff bye. That’s the blueprint.
2 Georgia
Last Season: 13-1 (Destroyed Florida St. in the Orange Bowl
“To be The Man you’ve got to beat The Man”, and the only teams that have defeated the Bulldogs in the past three years are Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship (Georgia then beat The Tide to win the National Championship) and Michigan in last season’s title game. Georgia has become THE team. They are on another level, and will need every ounce of that superiority to repel their challengers. Sadly I still think “style points” are a thing, so even if the ‘Dawgs grind out an unbeaten regular season they might not hold the top spot if a couple of those victories are unimpressive. Visits to Tuscaloosa & Austin, TX are mountains Georgia must climb, and those trips feel rather perilous.
1 Utah
Last Season: 8-5 (Lost the Las Vegas Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 @ Oklahoma St., 11/23 vs. Iowa St.
Okay…stay with me. Imagine this scenario. Two loss SEC & Big Ten Champions emerge from the rubble. Notre Dame & the ACC Champ (either Florida St. or Clemson) both have one loss and a couple of tight wins. Meanwhile, the Utes, with 25 year old seventh year senior QB Cam Rising, who’s as old or older than half the starters in the NFL, returns after missing the whole season a year ago with a serious knee injury. Utah also returns 16 starters & 73% of their production from a year ago. In their inaugural Big 12 season Utah starts 4-0 before heading into Stillwater and getting a huge road win over Oklahoma St. They blow thru the remaining schedule like one of those tornadoes in Twister before winning the Big 12 title game over Kansas St. Can they stand tall against Big Ten & SEC opponents in the playoff?? Year in & year out…probably not. This season?? It seems plausible.
The Manofesto 