Green Bay Packers

2025 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 17

Bowl season has already began. Did you know that?? Did anyone even notice?? One of the concerns some had a long time ago about a college football playoff was that it would negatively impact bowl games, and that has proven to be the case. Teams like Notre Dame, Iowa St., Kansas St., and a bunch of 5-7 teams that never would’ve been invited in the past anyway, all turned down bowl bids, because really, if it isn’t the CFP it doesn’t matter. Why bother?? The transfer portal has essentially created a second recruiting period, and when you add the coaching carousel into the mix, coaches who are basically rebuilding a team from scratch on an annual basis, especially if they are in a new place, simply don’t have time to bother with the Kellogg’s Cereal Bowl against a mediocre directional school on a random weekday afternoon the week before Christmas. There is no honor or prestige anymore. A bowl game isn’t a reward, it is a burden. The benefits of extra practice time have evaporated because the team is going to be completely overhauled by spring anyway. NFL prospects aren’t risking their lucrative future with nothing significant on the line, like a national championship. The only entity that benefits from the bowl system these days is ESPN, because football fans will watch those odd matchups at 4pm on a Wednesday, or atleast their televisions will be providing background noise while they’re doing something more important. At any rate, all of this is just another reason why the entire collegiate athletics business model needs totally renovated, with legitimate leadership. I won’t hold my breath though.

Observations from Last Week:

  • Army-Navy rarely disappoints 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻.
  • What’s the deal with Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia?? In the wake of finishing second in the Heisman voting to Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, Pavia apparently threw more than one temper tantrum, both in real life & on social media. At 5ft.10 (if that) Pavia is unlikely to make an impact in the NFL, but why torpedo the slim chance that might exist by acting like a petulant brat?? Sit down & shut your pie hole young man 🤐 . Peyton Manning & Marshall Faulk both placed second too, and they did okay in the aftermath.
  • Perhaps there is still hope for Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy 🤔.
  • I laugh at the people who say the Colts should’ve signed Cam Newton or Colin Kaepernick to solve their quarterback problem. Neither one of those guys would have been a better option than Philip Rivers. Sadly, there are no great options, but instead of recognizing that reality some have chosen to interject identity politics into the discussion, because that’s an easy cop out nowadays.
  • Tough season for the KC Chiefs, who were eliminated from playoff contention for the first time in a decade. Then, to make matters worse, Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL late in the 4th quarter, which could impact NEXT season 👀. The dynasty may really be over.

My Season: 48-55

Zach’s Season: 49-54

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington

The 9-5 Eagles got back on the winning track last week and hold an insurmountable lead in their division. The 4-10 Commanders have seen their season torpedoed by injuries. As a matter of fact, with nothing to play for they’ve already decided to shut down QB Jayden Daniels for the remainder of the season. I am beginning to wonder if Washington may use their Top Ten first round pick on another quarterback. Crazy?? Perhaps. Shocking?? Possibly. But Daniels, as talented as he may be, is injury prone, and potential can never be realized on the bench. Anyway, Philly should win this Saturday evening matchup rather easily. Zach views the Eagles as inconsistent, but also understands they tend to get their stuff together late in the season. Given the circumstances he is rolling the dice on the visitors.

My Pick: Philadelphia 

Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia 

Green Bay (-1.5) at Chicago

Bold prediction…sort of – don’t be surprised if the 10-4 Bears lose their remaining three games, finish 10-7, and miss the playoffs. Am I putting money on that scenario?? Of course not…but it is more than plausible. One of the teams that would benefit is the 9-4-1 Packers, who are clinging tightly to a wildcard berth, but will be without the services of pass rusher Micah Parsons after he tore his ACL last week. This is a Saturday night game, and it is h-u-g-e. Green Bay won the previous matchup earlier this month by a touchdown, and I think they can do it again despite Parsons’ absence. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Green Bay  

Zach’s Pick: Green Bay 

Las Vegas at Houston (-14.5)

I honestly thought the coaching comeback of Pete Carroll and trading for QB Geno Smith were positive steps for the Raiders, but sitting in the AFC West basement at 2-12 indicates otherwise. Conversely, the 9-5 Texans have been victorious in six consecutive games, which is certainly a switch after they began the season 0-3. They are in a hell of a battle in their division, and haven’t yet clinched a playoff spot. No one expects Vegas to win, but can Houston cover?? Although I am somewhat trepidatious, I will ride with the home favorites. Zach feels like the Texans are peaking at the right time.

My Pick: Houston

Zach’s Pick: Houston 

Tampa Bay (-3) at Carolina

The NFC South has traditionally come down to the wire, but the Bucs have been crowned division champs four seasons in a row. At 7-7 these teams are in a tie for first place, and it looks like a wildcard berth isn’t going to materialize for whoever finishes second. They play each other twice in the last three weeks of the season, and despite losing five of the past six games I still feel like Tampa is the better team. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Tampa Bay  

Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay 

Tulane at Ole Miss (-17.5)

I have made my feelings clear on the playoff. I don’t believe these participation trophy invitations to Group of Five conference champions is the right way to go. This is actually a rematch, with the two teams having ironically met up way back in September. Mississippi won that game by 35 points. Despite the departure of Lane Kiffin, I’d be surprised if the Rebels encounter any problems administering another beatdown to the Green Wave. Zach has a bit more faith in Tulane to be competitive, but still sees Ole Miss pulling away in the fourth quarter.

My Pick: Ole Miss   

Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss

James Madison at Oregon (-21.5)

Ditto, only worse. The Ducks haven’t lost their coach and they’re a better team than Ole Miss. This could get ugly. Conversely, Zach has even more confidence in JMU than Tulane. He doesn’t think they have enough depth or speed to actually upset Oregon, but he doesn’t believe they’ll lose by three touchdowns.

My Pick: Oregon  

Zach’s Pick: James Madison

Alabama (-1.5) at Oklahoma

We can debate whether or not ‘Bama deserved a playoff berth, but atleast this is a compelling matchup. Actually, it is another rematch because, as I constantly have to remind myself, Oklahoma is in the SEC now 🤦🏻‍♂️. When these teams met in Tuscaloosa a month ago the Sooners defense caused three turnovers that led to 17 points en route to victory that wasn’t secure until the final minute. There has been alot of noise lately about Tide coach Kalen DeBoer bolting after just two seasons to take the Michigan job, which would be insane. At any rate, given that distraction and the home field, I believe Oklahoma will win again with a late field goal. Zach, on the other hand, doesn’t believe The Tide will be rolled by the same opponent twice.

My Pick: Oklahoma  

Zach’s Pick: Alabama

Miami (FL) at Texas A&M (-3.5) 

The CFP committee received some heat for giving the playoff nod to the Hurricanes over Notre Dame, but head to head results matter, and Miami beat the Irish in the season opener. Coincidentally, A&M defeated Notre Dame the following week. The Aggies were unbeaten until they ran into in state rival Texas on Black Friday. College Station provides a huge home field advantage, so, though I don’t think it’ll be a blowout, I believe the home favorites will win comfortably. Zach sees the game as a tossup, but feels like Miami, and especially QB Carson Beck, can be a bit erratic at times. He leans toward it being a much closer game than I do, but with the same result.

My Pick: Texas A&M  

Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M

2025 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 16

Our picks will focus on the NFL this week, but before we get to that let us contemplate the College Football Playoff since the field has now been set.

Imagine if a bunch of suits were to sit in a room and decide whether the Green Bay Packers were worthy of being in the playoffs, or if the berth should be awarded to the Los Angeles Rams. Ponder the possibility of the New England Patriots winning their division but being left out of the postseason while the Buffalo Bills are invited to the party. Laughable, right?? So why is it okay in college football?? Look, this isn’t the time to address all of the issues, but let’s consider a few things. 

First & foremost, there is a clear separation, both in perception and reality, between the “Power Four” & “Group of Five” conferences. While it is a nice story that Tulane & James Madison made the CFP, no one will be surprised when they are obliterated in the first round. It’s way past time for FBS to be divided into two divisions, each with their own national championship. Secondly, what is the point of conference title games when a team can win the championship (Duke) but not be in the playoff, while a team that didn’t even play in that game (Miami) still gets into the playoff?? Make it make sense. How can a team like Alabama that has three losses & were dominated in their conference title game receive a bid, while Virginia, who has the same record and lost their title game in OT, is left out?? 

The NFL is a meritocracy. On the field results…wins & losses…decisive, unemotional, indisputable facts are the only things that matter. Conversely, college football is a beauty contest where brand names, pedigree, money, and PR become deciding factors in important decisions, and it doesn’t matter whether it is two teams (remember the BCS?? 🙄), four teams, 12 teams, or inevitably 16 teams, because the powers-that-be (mainly ESPN) LOVE the debate. It is utterly ridiculous.

Observations from Last Week:

  • “Snow Globe games” (shoutout Scott Hanson) are fun to watch on TV, but there is no way in Hell I’d attend one in person ❄️.
  • I don’t possess enough expertise to analyze what has gone sideways with the Kansas City Chiefs, so let’s just blame their downfall on Taylor Swift.
  • Six months ago no one would’ve said a team is cooked without QB Daniel Jones, but after beginning the season 7-1 the Colts have lost four of the last five games, all while the Jacksonville Jaguars have won 5 of their last 6. Now Indy has to make their playoff push with rookie Riley Leonard, MAYBE Anthony Richardson, or possibly…*checks notes*…Philip Rivers, who is 44 years old & hasn’t played in the NFL since President Trump’s first term. Good luck 👀.
  • Well, two of my six fantasy teams are playoff bound, so atleast I got that going for me, which is nice.
  • The Steelers obviously heard all the criticism concerning receiver DK Metcalf’s lack of involvement in the offense. Keep it up yinzers…apparently it takes a ton of public scrutiny for Pittsburgh’s braintrust to do what should’ve been done in the first place 👊🏻.

My Season: 47-51

Zach’s Season: 44-54

Baltimore (-2.5) at Cincinnati

As a Steelers fan I have no problem opining that yes…that was a touchdown. IYKYK. However, as many times as the Steelers have been screwed over by poor officiating in the past…well, let’s just say I didn’t lose any sleep over this particular questionable call. At any rate, coming into the season the Ravens were amongst the favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but right now, at 6-7, they need to figure things out quickly just to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, the 4-9 Bengals have looked much better since the return of QB Joe Burrow, but still pissed away a victory in Buffalo last weekend. It’s almost as if we’ve yet to see who either of these teams really are this year, or perhaps what they are and what they were supposed to be are vastly different. With the home field I like Burrow to connect with his elite receiving corps on enough big plays to pull off a slightly surprising upset. Zach points out that the Bengals won the Thanksgiving meeting between these two in Baltimore, but doesn’t think they can do it twice. He agrees that the Ravens were unlucky last week, but still believes they are a superior team.

My Pick: Cincinnati 

Zach’s Pick: Baltimore

 

LA Chargers at Kansas City (-4.5)

The 6-7 Chiefs aren’t winning their division, and though they aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, ALOT has to go their way in the final month of the season. Conversely, the 9-4 Chargers, who aren’t winning the division either, sit in a rather comfortable wildcard spot if they don’t implode in the next few weeks. It would undoubtedly thrill the folks out in Los Angeles to put the final nail in KC’s coffin, but where is the drama in that?? Depending upon one’s level of cynicism, you have to believe that it’d be far more interesting for the Chiefs to retain a shred of hope while casting doubt on the Chargers’ postseason aspirations. Zach is simply looking at the fact that the Chargers are a better team that is peaking at the right time.

My Pick: Kansas City 

Zach’s Pick: LA Chargers

Buffalo (-1.5) at New England

The 8-4 Bills haven’t been quite the juggernaut many might’ve expected this season, but after an epic 4th quarter comeback last weekend they remain in the thick of the fight. Their biggest adversary?? The surprising Patriots. At 11-2 there is no shadow of nefarious tactics or propping of alleged icons. This team is legit. I don’t think there is any chance that Buffalo can overcome the numbers and win the AFC East. However, I do think they’ll avenge an October loss and remind everyone who they are. New England has had a great season and will be crowned division champions, but they are still a young team with lessons to learn. Zach concurs, believing that Buffalo’s recent experience in big games gives them the edge.

My Pick: Buffalo

Zach’s Pick: Buffalo

Green Bay (-2.5) at Denver

The 11-2 Broncos have already exceeded expectations and have a firm grasp on their division, although there is certainly work left to be done. They have won ten games in a row, and I am the type of guy who is less surprised by a bubble bursting than good fortune continuing in perpetuity. The Packers sit at 9-3-1 and are riding a four game winning streak, but they’re in a hell of a dogfight in their division. Can the NFC North put three teams in the playoffs?? Even if that happens, there is a huge difference between a division champion and a wildcard, which could be the 7th seed in the conference. That means this is a HUGE game. As mentioned, I believe bubbles are meant to burst, so I think Denver’s run ends at ten games, but it won’t have much of a negative impact. I predict The Pack & the Detroit Lions will both overcome the Chicago Bears and have an opportunity to be the NFC’s top seed. Zach foresees a high scoring affair, but thinks the Packers will struggle a bit in elevated mountain air.

My Pick: Green Bay

Zach’s Pick: Denver

Indianapolis at Seattle (-11.5)

Good Lord, what is happening in Indianapolis?!?!?? They’ve lost 3 of the past 4 games, now sit behind Jacksonville & Houston in the AFC South, could miss out on a wildcard berth, and won’t have the services of starting QB Daniel Jones down the stretch due to an achilles injury. It probably can’t get much worse for the Colts. Conversely, the 10-3 Seahawks have won six of their last seven games and sit atop the NFC West alongside the L.A. Rams. The  conference’s top seed remains very much in their grasp. This would’ve been a far more entertaining contest a month ago, but now it seems like a foregone conclusion, with only the margin of victory in question. Can Seattle cover the points?? With one of the league’s best home fields I believe they will. Zach agrees that Indy is a dumpster fire, but the points are just too much.

My Pick: Seattle

Zach’s Pick: Indianapolis

 

2025 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 14

It seems that we have arrived at Rivalry Week in college football, atleast the ones left standing after realignment. Most of these games, both college & pro, are happening on Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday, with a couple of huge battles taking center stage on Saturday. I am old enough to remember when only two NFL games…one featuring the Dallas Cowboys and the other with the Detroit Lions…took place on the holiday, but now we’re getting three Thanksgiving pro games and a game on Black Friday, in addition to a half dozen rather entertaining college games. No complaints here. Turkey & stuffing, football, Christmas movies, pie, and a whole lot of football sounds like a great time to me.

Observations from Last Week:

  • Unsportsmanlike conduct on the college level & roughing the passer in the NFL are two of the most ridiculously applied penalties, and that needs to be addressed in the offseason.
  • Why is it a Two Minute Warning in the NFL, but the Two Minute Timeout in college?? Is it a proprietary thing, or are college kids deemed too delicate for an ominous warning?? 
  • When I was a kid and announcers would mention “field goal range”, I thought that meant that the offense was required to make it to a certain area of the field before they were allowed to attempt a FG. I didn’t realize that…theoretically…a field goal can be tried from anywhere, though obviously it is unwise to do so.
  • So…JJ McCarthy is a bust. Alrighty then 🤦🏻‍♂️.
  • I can’t help but wonder what the Steelers offense might’ve looked like with Jameis Winston playing quarterback.

My Season: 42-35

Zach’s Season: 34-43

Ole Miss (-8.5) at Mississippi State 

The conversation surrounding the 122nd Egg Bowl has been dominated by the future of Lane Kiffin, who might be headed for allegedly greener pastures following his sixth season in Oxford. The 10-1 Rebels need help to reach the SEC title game even if they win, but a loss obviously knocks them out. The 5-6 Bulldogs must win to become bowl eligible. Ole Miss leads the series 66-46-6 and have won 4 of the past 5 meetings. I don’t see that changing this year, and though the points do give me pause, I think the favorites win by ten. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Ole Miss 

Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss 

Iowa (-4.5) at Nebraska

This is a relatively new and decidedly intermittent “rivalry”. The teams have done battle on the gridiron 55 times since 1891, but after Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011 it has become an annual Black Friday tradition. Both teams are 7-4, and though they’re not in the conference championship conversation, they’d love to finish strong and travel to a great bowl location. It feels like a tossup to me, so I’m riding with the Huskers at home to score a mild upset. Conversely, Zach foresees Iowa slowing the tempo & dominating time of possession en route to a victory.

My Pick: Nebraska 

Zach’s Pick: Iowa

Utah (-13.5) at Kansas

The 9-2 Utes need ALOT of help to back into the Big 12 title game, which seems unlikely. However, the first order of business is to win. That won’t be easy against the 5-6 Jayhawks, who have shown flashes of potential this season but find themselves in a must win scenario to achieve bowl eligibility. I’m not bold enough to pick an upset outright, but I do believe it’ll be closer than two touchdowns. Zach just thinks Utah is the better team. He predicts Kansas will remain competitive thru the first half before the visitors take over and win comfortably.

My Pick: Kansas

Zach’s Pick: Utah

Georgia (-12.5) vs. Georgia Tech

This is theoretically a neutral site game in Atlanta, although Tech’s campus is literally two miles down the road, whereas Athen, GA (home of the Bulldogs) is about 70 miles away. After getting to 8-0 and looking like a sure thing to play for the ACC title, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of their last three games and find themselves on the outside looking in unless a whole bunch of dominoes fall the right way. Conversely, the 10-1 Bulldogs only need Alabama OR Texas A&M to lose to secure a spot in the SEC Championship, which seems plausible. They call this game “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate”, which might be the dumbest freakin’ rivalry name I’ve ever heard. Anyway, Georgia leads the series 72-41-5 and has won seven consecutive matchups. I don’t think that’ll change this year, and I believe it’ll be a rather decisive victory. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Georgia

Texas A&M (-2.5) at Texas

Forgive me if I’ve mentioned it in previous years, but I always associate this game with the 1982 Burt Reynolds/Dolly Parton classic The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas, in which the winning team is rewarded with a visit to The Chicken Ranch. In case you’re unfamiliar with the movie, though there are plenty of legs, thighs, and breasts, there are absolutely no chickens in sight. At any rate, the Aggies are undefeated and have probably locked up a spot in the CFP, but they need to win to guarantee an SEC Championship appearance, otherwise there’s a chance they could miss out. The 8-3 Longhorns haven’t been as successful as they’d hoped entering the season, but are still clinging to slim hopes of a CFP bid. The game being played in Austin concerns me just a bit, but I’m pulling for A&M to come out on top in an all time classic. Zach views the Aggies as well coached and likes QB Marcel Reed. He thinks Texas has shown improvement, but it won’t matter this week.

My Pick: Texas A&M

Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M

Arizona (-1.5) at Arizona State

The 8-3 Sun Devils still have an opportunity to play for the Big 12 title, but they need a couple other teams to lose. The Wildcats are also 8-3 but aren’t in championship contention. They should receive a fun bowl bid though. It is alternatively called the Duel in the Desert (👍🏻) or the Territorial Cup (👀), and there have been 98 previous meetings dating back to 1899. Arizona leads the series 51-45-1, although State has won six of the last eight games. These two teams feel even enough that the home field plays a role, so I am picking the mild upset. Zach thinks Arizona is the hotter team right now so he’s riding that hot hand.

My Pick: Arizona State

Zach’s Pick: Arizona 

Alabama (-6.5) at Auburn 

To be honest, I didn’t originally plan for us to pick this many games, and considered skipping the 90th Iron Bowl. However, despite the fact that ‘Bama has won the past five meetings and Auburn isn’t very good, I just couldn’t do it. The 5-6 Tigers have to win to achieve bowl eligibility, while the 9-2 Tide haven’t locked in a playoff berth just yet. The Tide has rolled to an all time series lead of 51-37-1 dating back to 1893. I would LOVE to see an upset, although I’m not dumb enough to put money on it. However, I think it is very possible that we see a close contest decided by a field goal in the final minute. Zach has faith in the visiting favorites to dominate in the 4th quarter when it matters most.

My Pick: Auburn

Zach’s Pick: Alabama 

Ohio State (-12.5) at Michigan

In my humble opinion, this is THE greatest rivalry…certainly in college football, and perhaps in the entirety of sports. Simply known as The Game, it has been played 120 times since 1897, with Michigan leading the series 62-51-6. Michigan has been victorious the past four years after Ohio St. had won eight consecutive meetings from 2012-19. Unless you’ve been off the grid for awhile you’re aware that the unbeaten Buckeyes have been the #1 team in the country all season. The Wolverines are a rather low key 9-2, with unfortunate losses on the road at Oklahoma & USC eradicating their conference title aspirations. I’d be quite surprised by an Ohio St. loss, but the points scare me, and the status of injured receivers Jeremiah Smith & Carnell Tate remains up in the air. If those dudes play the favorites win comfortably, but if they don’t then the outcome becomes questionable. I will roll the dice on both players being available. Unsurprisingly, Zach is all Blue all the time and has no respect for Ohio St.’s weak schedule.

My Pick: Ohio St.

Zach’s Pick: Michigan 

Green Bay at Detroit (-2.5)

Though it might be an NFC title preview, right now it is a battle for the division crown. The Packers sit a half game behind Chicago, while the Lions are a half game behind Green Bay. The Bears are receiving alot of love at the moment, but I still believe these two teams will surpass them. Green Bay won the season opener at Lambeau, but I think we’ll see a different result this time, with the RB tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery helping Detroit grind their way to an important win. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Detroit

Zach’s Pick: Detroit

Kansas City (-3.5) at Dallas

The 6-5 Chiefs saved their season…for the moment…with an overtime win over Indianapolis, but the path doesn’t become easier. The 5-5-1 Cowboys also kept their head above water with a surprising victory over Philadelphia. So, once more unto the breach go two teams that had higher expectations yet find themselves scratching & clawing to avoid irrelevance. I wouldn’t be shocked if both eventually make it to the postseason, but neither will I be surprised if both are sitting at home during the playoffs. This game might be better than sweet potatoes & cranberry sauce, and I believe in KC to continue their climb out of the abyss. Zach, on the other hand, feels like Dallas has the momentum and will continue to improve.

My Pick: Kansas City

Zach’s Pick: Dallas

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)

Anyone with a brain knew that the Ravens weren’t done, despite beginning the season 1-5. Now, after five straight victories (and because the Steelers are mid at best), Baltimore sits atop the AFC North. Meanwhile, the 3-8 Bengals will have QB Joe Burrow back in the saddle for the first time since he injured his toe way back in September. There’s no way Cincy climbs back into playoff contention, but they will undoubtedly be better with their starting quarterback. This is the nightcap on Thanksgiving, and I’ll probably be watching Christmas movies. I would love to see an upset, but unfortunately that seems unlikely. Zach is a bit more hopeful, as he thinks the Bengals can come out on top in a shootout.

My Pick: Baltimore

Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati 

Chicago at Philadelphia (-7)

I have absolutely zero interest in Black Friday shopping, but even if I did I believe the way that whole thing works is the stores open obscenely early, and all the wackos who actually enjoy the insanity are finished and home by noon. So if you are participating you should still be able to catch the 3pm kickoff…if you have Prime Video. Anyway, it’s a great matchup featuring the 8-3 Bears, winners of four in a row, including a gritty skirmish with my offensively challenged Steelers, against the 8-3 Eagles, who still hold an overwhelming division lead despite forgetting to show up during the second half in their recent loss to the Cowboys. I may be proven wrong, but I’m still not sold on the Bears & QB Caleb Williams. Conversely, Philly’s track record speaks for itself, and it’s way too early to disregard their chance to be repeat champions. Zach believes the Bears just might be for real, and he predicts they’ll find a way to win a close one.

My Pick: Philadelphia

Zach’s Pick: Chicago

2025 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 11

I’m not going to waste time with a wordy preamble today. Conference races are heating up, division titles are up for grabs, and playoff berths hang in the balance. It is absolutely the best time of the year to vegg out all weekend long watching football and leaving the insanity of the world out in the cold.

Observations from Last Week:

  • Congratulations to the Oregon St. Beavers for winning the Pac 12.
  • I agree with Kirk Herbstreit…Oklahoma’s kicker (nor any other player) should NOT be allowed to wear literal shorts as part of the uniform.
  • Non-football thought: MLB badly needs a salary cap ⚾️.
  • Kudos to Jags kicker Cam Little, who now holds the NFL record with a 68 yard field goal, the longest in the history of football.
  • I was defeated in one of my leagues by an opponent who started two players on their bye and another player on IR, so that’s how my fantasy season is going 👀.

My Season: 31-25

Zach’s Season: 20-36

BYU at Texas Tech (-10.5)

Theoretically we could see a rematch in the Big 12 title game next month. I am a little surprised by the points, given the fact that the Cougars are undefeated while the Red Raiders suffered a close loss a few weeks ago. Sure, Tech has the home field, but should that translate into being a double digit favorite?? Perhaps I don’t have all the information, but I’ll be stunned if it isn’t a much closer contest, no matter who wins. Zach agrees. He views BYU as a well coached team and really likes freshman QB Bear Bachmeier.

My Pick: BYU

Zach’s Pick: BYU

Texas A&M (-7) at Missouri

Did you know the Aggies are unbeaten?? I didn’t. The 6-2 Tigers will likely provide stiff competition, despite having lost two of their last three. However, without starting QB Beau Pribula, who is sidelined with an ankle injury, I just don’t think an upset is in the cards. Zach likes Missouri’s defense, but agrees it’s probably not enough.

My Pick: Texas A&M

Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M

Florida State at Clemson (-2.5)

Sometimes the hype just doesn’t match the reality. While there are blueblood programs that simply reload year after year and string together seemingly endless successful seasons, the truth is that each team is made up of human beings. Things happen. Injuries occur. Athletes don’t always live up to expectations. After a decade & a half at or near the top of the mountain, the 3-5 Tigers are struggling to achieve bowl eligibility. The 4-4 Seminoles know all about that, and for awhile it seemed like they’d gotten over that hump after several years of mediocrity. That was before they lost 4 out of the last 5 games. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Will Clemson wake up and defend their home turf?? Or does Florida St. smell blood in the water?? I think it’ll be the latter, with a late field goal sealing the deal. Zach still has faith in Dabo Swinney and thinks the home team will win a close one.

My Pick: Florida St.

Zach’s Pick: Clemson

LSU at Alabama (-10.5)

I’m looking at this game much differently than I would have just a month ago. The wheels are falling off in Baton Rouge, with the Bayou Bengals losing three of their last four games. Conversely, after losing their season opener The Tide have rolled to seven consecutive victories. I think ‘Bama wins by atleast two TDs…maybe three. Conversely, Zach feels like, no matter what has transpired, this is a rivalry game and the underdogs will atleast make it interesting.

My Pick: Alabama

Zach’s Pick: LSU

Baltimore (-4) at Minnesota

Don’t look now, but the rumors of Baltimore’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. At 3-5 they still have work to do to get back into playoff contention, but when healthy & at full strength there might not be a more dangerous team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the 4-4 Vikes are struggling to put it all together. We all understand the potential, and with quarterback JJ McCarthy back in the saddle they’re a better team. However, I foresee more close losses while they continue to build toward a better future in a couple of seasons. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Baltimore

Zach’s Pick: Baltimore 

New England at Tampa Bay (-2.5)

So I guess the folks in New England are getting cocky again, thinking that QB Drake Maye is the second coming of Tom Brady. I suppose they’ve earned that confidence after going 7-2 and piecing together a six game win streak. Unfortunately they’re going up against the 6-2 Bucs and their signal caller Baker Mayfield, who knows a thing or two about cockiness. I understand that Tampa has suffered some injuries, but I believe they’ll find a way to grind out a tough win at home. Zach thinks Maye will be good, but he likes Mayfield to prevail this time.

My Pick: Tampa Bay

Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay 

Detroit (-8.5) at Washington 

The Commanders came into the season with alot of hype & momentum, but at 3-6 after losing four straight it just feels like a lost season. As much as I like QB Jayden Daniels the fact is that he’s an injury waiting to happen. He cannot be counted on to be available much of the time, and that’s a problem. The 5-3 Lions have lost two of their last three games, but I am still all in on them being a legit Super Bowl contender. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Detroit

Zach’s Pick: Detroit 

Philadelphia at Green Bay (-2.5)

It’s early November, so I am assuming the tundra at Lambeau Field isn’t frozen just yet. However, the Packers still get the requisite home field bump. They are 5-2-1 but should actually have a better record, with a rare tie against the Cowboys and an inexplicable loss to Carolina being real head scratchers. Meanwhile, there seems to be alot of locker room drama in Philly. They’re 6-2 and will easily win their division, almost by default…but can they make another deep playoff run and defend their Super Bowl title?? This is the Monday night game so the talking heads will be all over it. Either way the outcome will be interpreted as some sort of defining statement, but it also might be an NFC Championship preview. I think the Eagles will try to silence their doubters with a mild upset. Zach doesn’t believe Green Bay is the real deal, so he’s calling for the “upset”.

My Pick: Philadelphia 

Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia 

2025 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 5

I am skipping a verbose preamble today. We’re doing a healthy amount of bonus picks, so I’d rather focus on that. It’s finally autumn if you’re into that sorta thing, so throw on some flannel, grab a pumpkin flavored beverage, and enjoy two guys who’d be destitute if we did this for money act like we know stuff about football.

My Season: 13-9

Zach’s Season: 6-16

Auburn at Texas A&M (-6.5)

The Tigers are 3-1, hoping to bounce back from a tough loss to Oklahoma, and possibly looking ahead to a winnable game against Georgia next week. The 3-0 Aggies are a Top Ten team coming out of a bye week. The points bother me a little, but I think College Station provides a formidable home field advantage. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Texas A&M 

Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M 

Appalachian State at Boise State (-17.5)

Thru the years they’ve both been elite 1-AA/FCS programs, and now they’re both well respected “Group of Five” teams. The 2-1 Broncos will step into a revamped Pac 12 next year, but for now remain focused on winning their seventh Mountain West crown in 15 years, which would be a three-peat. The 2-1 Mountaineers would like to position themselves as contenders in the Sun Belt, a conference they haven’t won since 2019 after capturing four consecutive titles. These teams only met on the gridiron once, and that was more than three decades ago, which is a shame because I feel like it could’ve been a fun rivalry. I’d love to see App. St. be competitive, but on the infamous blue turf against a team with legit NFL talent that seems like a tall order. Conversely, Zach feels like the underdogs have what it takes to hang in there and keep it respectable.

My Pick: Boise St.

Zach’s Pick: Appalachian St.

Alabama at Georgia (-3.5)

It is absolutely hysterical that ESPN passed up an opportunity to bring Gameday to this matchup for the 12th time in 23 years. I guess the 2-1 Tide and the 3-0 Bulldogs just aren’t as elite as they used to be. Georgia had to go to overtime to beat Tennessee last week, while ‘Bama is still trying to figure out how in the hell they lost to Florida St. in the season opener. Alabama leads the all time series 44-26-4 and have won 9 out of the last 10 meetings, but I have to lean toward the home team defending their turf and winning by a touchdown. Zach doesn’t foresee it being that competitive, predicting the Dawgs to win a blowout.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Georgia

Oregon at Penn State (-3.5)

Okay, so…the winner might end up sharing the Big Ten lead with Southern Cal 👀. Conference realignment is bizarre. The unbeaten Ducks have looked virtually unstoppable, but they are definitely stepping up to better competition than they’ve faced thus far. To be honest I haven’t paid much attention to the undefeated Nittany Lions, but my sources indicate that they’ve steamrolled lesser opponents as well. “Experts” say Penn St. QB Drew Allar will be a first round NFL Draft pick, but then again so were Sam Bradford & Trey Lance. I believe Oregon is simply faster & more athletic overall, and they should win by double digits…something like 28-17. Zach sees Oregon as perhaps the best team in the country and doesn’t have any faith in Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin to win a big game.

My Pick: Oregon

Zach’s Pick: Oregon

Philadelphia (-3) at Tampa Bay

The defending Super Bowl Champions are 3-0 and haven’t shown any signs of a letdown. Jalen Hurts might be the most versatile QB in the league, but the defense probably needs to kick things up a notch or two. Meanwhile, the 3-0 Bucs could just as easily be 0-3, but they’re a gritty bunch. It’ll be a fun game, yet, at the end of the day, I’d be surprised if Philly doesn’t score a comfortable victory. Zach is all in on Tampa QB Baker Mayfield and thinks he’ll lead his squad to a dramatic triumph.

My Pick: Philadelphia 

Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay 

Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3.5)

I underestimated the 49ers, who have gotten off to a 3-0 start despite being riddled with injuries. It hasn’t been easy, and things could certainly change, but so far so good. The Jags feel like one of those teams that’ll always battle and rarely get embarrassed, but fall just short more often than they find a path to victory. The final score will probably make it look closer than it was in reality, with the home favorites winning by 5-10 points. Zach opines “the Jags are the Jags”. That says it all, doesn’t it??

My Pick: San Francisco 

Zach’s Pick: San Francisco 

Indianapolis at LA Rams (-3.5)

While I underestimated the Jags, I flat out disrespected the Colts. Who knew that Daniel Jones would look like a legit first round caliber quarterback simply by changing his address?? That being said, the Rams might be the best team Indy has faced, and they’re probably not too happy about the way they lost to Philly, a game they had a real opportunity to win. Los Angeles has a Top 5 rated defense, which I think will rise to the occasion in the 4th quarter. Zach predicts that Daniel Jones will suddenly look like…well, Daniel Jones, and that’s not good news for the visitors.

My Pick: LA Rams

Zach’s Pick: LA Rams

Baltimore (-2.5) at Kansas City 

Many “experts” thought this might be an AFC title game preview. It still could be, but right now it’s a battle between two teams in last place in their division. The 1-2 Chiefs look like a subpar cover band version of the team that has played in three consecutive Super Bowls, winning two of them. The 1-2 Ravens could be sitting at 3-0, but the ball just hasn’t bounced their way. I suspect we’ll see both teams rebound and go on a tear later on in the season, but right now they are just trying to survive. I like the home field for KC, and believe we’ll see them begin to figure things out against a tough opponent. Zach urges Chiefs fans not to give up on their team and believes they’ll be in contention when it really matters. He’s a big Andy Reid fan and foresees Travis Kelce finally having a big game.

My Pick: Kansas City 

Zach’s Pick: Kansas City 

Green Bay (-6.5) at Dallas 

I suppose this is the Micah Parsons Bowl. Jerry Jones is one of the worst owners in professional sports, because how many other team owners are also the general manager?? Trading Parsons was idiotic, but if it had to be done Jones could’ve atleast sent the disgruntled pass rusher to the AFC. At any rate, the 2-1 Packers should be PISSED about last week’s fourth quarter implosion that led to ten unanswered points & a walkoff field goal victory for the Cleveland Browns. The 1-2 Cowboys simply haven’t looked right in any way, and now they’ll be without receiver CeeDee Lamb, who is sidelined with a high ankle sprain. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, but I’m sure league & network suits are regretting that right now. Green Bay will win, and it probably won’t be that close. Zach thinks QB Jordan Love will have a big game and lead his team to a huge win.

My Pick: Green Bay 

Zach’s Pick: Green Bay 

2025 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 2

I suppose it’s more of a postscript than a tribute, but a fond farewell to Lee Corso, whose final appearance on College Gameday occurred last weekend. Perhaps ESPN laid it on a little thick, but Corso’s swan song was well done, and all of the kind words heaped on him by everyone from Matthew McConaughey & Will Ferrell to various coaches, players, and talking heads felt genuine and well-earned. Gameday has been a part of my autumn Saturday morning routine for nearly four decades, which will continue, although it’ll be just a bit different without Corso. I’ve always embraced nostalgia and lived long enough to see many longstanding traditions slip into the ether. Life moves forward, but a tip o’ the cap to those rituals that make moments memorable for as long as they do. Godspeed Coach Corso…may you enjoy the winter of your days with happiness & peace. 

Observations from Last Week:

  • Quite surprised by upsets of Boise St. & Alabama. I had no idea former Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn is now Florida St.’s offensive coordinator.
  • Notre Dame was my preseason #1 👀🤦🏻‍♂️😂.
  • Atleast in college football, defense can still win championships. 
  • I have officially entered the stage of life when I can no longer hang until the west coast games end on Saturday night 😴.
  • LaNorris Sellers would look great in a Pittsburgh Steelers uniform.

My Season: 3-2

Zach’s Season: 1-4

Baylor at SMU (-4)

The Bears were beaten convincingly by Auburn last weekend, while the Mustangs had no problem easily dispatching an FCS opponent. I don’t think much will change this week. Zach doesn’t trust Baylor’s defense and believes the home team will win a high scoring contest.

My Pick: SMU

Zach’s Pick: SMU

Iowa at Iowa State (-3.5)

The Battle of Iowa is a hidden gem amongst collegiate rivalries. The Hawkeyes lead the series, which dates back to 1894, 47-24. However, the Cyclones have won two of the past three games. State is already 2-0, while their Big Ten counterparts whipped up on an FCS opponent last week. My high hopes for the home team remain intact, and I believe they’ll win by a touchdown. Zach foresees a low scoring defensive struggle, with the home field tipping the scales.

My Pick: Iowa St.

Zach’s Pick: Iowa St.

Michigan at Oklahoma (-5.5)

The Wolverines dominated New Mexico in their season opener, while the Sooners are another team that got things started by defeating an FCS foe. There’s been alot of behind the scenes turmoil in Ann Arbor, but I don’t believe it will significantly impact their season. Oklahoma has been a model of inconsistency for the past few years, but there seems to be renewed optimism in Norman. I don’t know who will ultimately win the game, but I think it’ll be decided one way or another by a field goal, perhaps in overtime. Zach, on the other hand, is utilizing reverse psychology from the jump, opining that he is concerned about Michigan’s defense and an uninspiring performance last weekend.

My Pick: Michigan

Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma 

Dallas at Philadelphia (-7.5)

Hey y’all, the NFL is back!! The season kicks off Thursday night in Philly, and of course we all know there’s been alot going on with the Cowboys. I did not see the Micah Parsons trade coming, which considerably alters my outlook for Dallas and Green Bay. For this game specifically, I don’t foresee a path to victory for the visitors, although the points concern me a bit. Can the defending Super Bowl Champions Tush Push their way to a TD+ win?? I think they can. Zach isn’t concerned at all and thinks the home team wins easily.

My Pick: Philadelphia 

Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia 

Kansas City (-3) vs. LA Chargers

Keep an eye on the AFC West this season. The Chargers could mount a legit challenge to the Chiefs, and obviously a victory right out of the gate would help their cause. This is a Friday night game emanating from Brazil. It’ll be broadcast on YouTube, with kickoff set for 8pm EST (it’ll be 9pm in Sao Paulo, which could affect the players). My gut tells me that the crowd will be in KC’s corner because they’re a better known international brand. I also have more faith in head coach Andy Reid to navigate the unique circumstances and have his team prepared. Zach believes tight end Travis Kelce has been distracted and not focused on football. He also has positive vibes about the long term success of the Chargers. However, he can’t go against the Chiefs in this particular situation.

My Pick: Kansas City 

Zach’s Pick: Kansas City 

Detroit at Green Bay (-2.5)

As mentioned, the addition of pass rusher Micah Parsons to the Packers defense improves their outlook tremendously, perhaps making them clear favorites in the NFC North. Green Bay also has the home field, which could be important in a tight game. I haven’t lost faith in the Lions, but I believe they’ll begin the season with a loss. Zach feels that Detroit is still a better team and will win a close game.

My Pick: Green Bay

Zach’s Pick: Detroit

Baltimore at Buffalo (-1.5)

It’s the Sunday night game on NBC. The Bills are my pick to win the Super Bowl, but I have seen “experts” predict they won’t even win their division. Conversely, the Ravens are favored by almost everyone whose opinion you’d trust to win theirs and make a serious Super Bowl run. It might not be the smart choice, but I’m sticking with my preseason thoughts and pulling for Josh Allen to matriculate down the field deep into the 4th quarter to defend his home turf. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Buffalo

Zach’s Pick: Buffalo

2025-26 NFL Preview & Prognostications 

Just when I was kinda sorta almost getting amped up for the return of football, news emerged of ESPN gobbling up the NFL Network & RedZone. I was upset last year when RedZone abandoned their “seven hours of commercial free football” tradition, although if I’m being honest the commercials were sprinkled in unobtrusively. However, ESPN (or, if we’re keeping it 100, Disney) tends to ruin perfectly great things with their meddling. I still haven’t forgiven them for canceling Mike & Mike in the Morning eight years ago. Disney…which is also now in bed with WWE…has become a greedy monster gobbling up everything in sight, and the fans pay the price. Anyway, I suppose further changes won’t occur until next season, so we’ll forge ahead as usual for now. As always, I’ll remind you that I really don’t know what the hell I’m talking about sometimes, so please…no wagering.

North

Detroit Lions (15-2) 11-6

Green Bay Packers (11-6) 10-7

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) 9-8

Chicago Bears (5-12) 8-9

I’m so tired of talking heads slobbering all over Bears’ QB Caleb Williams, using words like “generational”. No, he’s not. He’s just another guy. In three years, if I am wrong, I will admit my error and ask for mercy. At this point though, I don’t believe Williams will be much more successful than predecessors like Rex Grossman, Kyle Orton, or Jay Cutler. Chicago does have a new head coach though. Former Lions’ offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is getting his crack at a top job, and if anyone can prove me wrong about Williams it’s probably him. I like Vikings’ QB JJ McCarthy, but he is essentially a rookie after missing all of last season with a knee injury. The Vikes added some pieces on defense & bolstered their offensive line. Having said that, we probably need to show a bit of grace while McCarthy becomes acclimated to the NFL. Despite the presence of elite receiver Justin Jefferson, a solid running back group, and one of the best tight ends in the league in TJ Hockenson, I foresee a significant dropoff from a year ago. The Packers are being overlooked a bit, which might work in their favor. Jordan Love enters his third year as the starting quarterback, but he’s going to need more consistency from a deep & talented group of receivers, and their Top 5 defense has to maintain that level of intensity. Detroit’s defense was ravaged by injuries last year, and former defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has moved on to be the head coach of the NY Jets. How will their offense adjust after the departure of Ben Johnson?? That’ll be the key to the entire season. I expect a small regression, but it’ll be worth it if they have a deeper playoff run.

South 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) 9-8

Atlanta Falcons (8-9) 9-8

Carolina Panthers (5-12) 6-11

New Orleans Saints (5–12) 6-11

While I don’t believe Bucs’ QB Baker Mayfield is worthy of being discussed alongside the league’s elite signal callers, I do think he has earned a spot on the second tier. A season ago that translated into a division title & a first round postseason exit, which is probably their ceiling once again. All eyes will be on Michael Penix Jr., now entrenched as the Falcons’ quarterback. Of course they also retained Kirk Cousins, whose services weren’t sought by any other team given his robust salary. Tight end Kyle Pitts has got to live up to his potential, and Atlanta’s defense, which ranked in the bottom third of the NFL last season, must kick it up a notch. The Panthers & Saints are spinning their wheels. New Orleans hired Kellen Moore to be their head coach, which may pay dividends in the future, but right now they simply have too many holes on the roster. I have come to the conclusion that the Panthers are football’s version of the Pittsburgh Pirates. They hire the wrong people, make bad decisions, and can’t evaluate talent properly. Their biggest issue is likely ownership, which won’t change until it does.

East

Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) 12-5

Dallas Cowboys (7-10) 10-7

Washington Commanders (12-5) 10-7

New York Giants (3-14) 6-11

Winning back-to-back Super Bowls is rare, but has been done as recently as the year before last. The Eagles have appeared in three Super Bowls since 2017, winning two. There has been some turnover on defense, but getting younger might not be a bad thing. Key free agents departed on both sides of the ball, yet, as long as Jalen Hurts is under center, he has his full complement of receivers, and Saquon Barkley is toting the rock, I see no reason to doubt Philly just yet. Brian Schottenheimer is now the head coach in Dallas, a change I’ve been predicting for a couple of years. Expect the Cowboys to rebound from a disappointing season and challenge Philadelphia for the division crown…assuming sack monster Micah Parsons gets paid. The Commanders will be right there in the mix as well, although QB Jayden Daniels won’t be sneaking up on anyone anymore. Does that mean Washington won’t be successful?? No…but I believe they’ll take a step back for now, especially if issues with receiver Terry McLaurin aren’t resolved satisfactorily. I actually like some of the things the Giants have done, but until Jaxon Dart supplants Russell Wilson behind center and young studs on defense gain experience there won’t be any postseason games at MetLife Stadium. 

West

Los Angeles Rams (10-7) 10-7

Arizona Cardinals (8-9) 9-8

San Francisco 49ers (6-11) 9-8

Seattle Seahawks (10-7) 8-9

The Seahawks are almost unrecognizable. There’s a whole new offensive coaching staff, and Sam Darnold replaces Geno Smith at quarterback. Many will view that as an upgrade, but I’m not so sure. Receivers DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett are gone, with former Ram Cooper Kupp stepping in as the new second receiver behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle was a middle-of-the-pack defense last year, but with so many changes no one knows what to expect now. I don’t think the NIners will be as terrible as they were a year ago, but their defense was certainly impacted in free agency. Time will tell if draft picks pan out, and in the meantime alot is riding on the further development of QB Brock Purdy & the always unstable health of RB Christian McCaffrey. I don’t have much more faith in Cards’ QB Kyler Murray than I do Caleb Williams, but if receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. continues his ascent that’ll help. Arizona’s braintrust seemed to focus on a defensive rebuild this offseason, so we’ll see how that works out. I don’t think winning their second consecutive division title will be easy for the Rams, and I’m a little concerned about the health of QB Matthew Stafford, but the defense should be sneaky good enough to narrowly win the division.

Playoffs: Eagles, Rams, Lions, Bucs, Packers, Cowboys, Commanders

NFC Title: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys

North

Baltimore Ravens (12-5) 11-6

Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) 9-8

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) 9-8

Cleveland Browns (3-14) 5-12

My Steelers have been the talk of the offseason. Will they be terrible or will they be mediocre?? I believe that’s called damning with faint praise. Enigmatic Aaron Rodgers will be the quarterback, and he’ll be throwing mostly to DK Metcalf, who I see as an upgrade after George Pickens yapped his way out of town. He’s Jerry Jones’ problem now. Pass rusher TJ Watt got paid, and I have no doubt he’ll earn it. The running game looks different with rookie Kaleb Johnson & Jaylen Warren sharing duties after the departure of former first round bust Najee Harris. For the first time in several years I have good vibes about the offensive line & secondary. Everything seems to be held together by duct tape & prayer in Pittsburgh, which won’t get them to the Super Bowl but also hopefully means I won’t spend the next several months curled up in a dark room muttering to myself, as I assume Browns fans have been doing for decades. First of all, Cleveland’s quarterback room is unintentionally hilarious. Secondly, Myles Garrett is not the best defensive player in the NFL. Look on the bright side though…the Cavaliers are pretty good, and the Guardians ain’t half bad either. The division belongs to Baltimore, who’ve become the AFC’s Dallas Cowboys tribute band. No one doubts they’ll be successful in the regular season, but everyone assumes they’ll screw the pooch in the playoffs. Can the Bengals be a fly in the ointment?? Joe Burrow is a top notch quarterback. He has solid weapons, although if I were the GM I’d be looking for upgrades in the backfield & at tight end in the next draft. However, Cincy’s defense ranked in the bottom third of the league last season, and that was with pass rusher Trey Hendrickson in the lineup. If his holdout continues it’s a huge problem, and even if he plays there are other issues. 

South 

Houston Texans (10-7) 9-8

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-13) 8-9

Indianapolis Colts (8-9) 7-10

Tennessee Titans (3-14) 6-11

Which teams will improve and which teams will regress?? The Texans have a target on their back and tweaked their team just a bit. There are some new coaches on offense and a revamped offensive line. Quarterback CJ Stroud’s QBR dropped from 53.2 during his rookie season to 50.2 last year, while his passer rating dropped from 100.8 to 87. He has to be better. The Colts will choose between QBs Anthony Richardson & Daniel Jones, which is like having drunk munchies at 3am and your best options are the container of Chinese food that’s been in your fridge for a week or risking a DUI to grab some Taco Bell. Jonathan Taylor is only 26 years old & one of the best RBs in football when healthy, and I really like first round draft pick Tyler Warren, who has elite tight end potential. Indy ranked 29th in total defense a season ago, and I don’t know if they did enough to improve significantly. #1 overall pick Cam Ward has an opportunity to be a special QB for the Titans, but it’ll take a couple of years to build a competitive roster around him. The Jags brought in former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen to be their new head coach and drafted unicorn Travis Hunter, who will allegedly play WR & CB. I like receiver Brian Thomas, and there are some dawgs on defense, but everything in Jacksonville is contingent upon QB Trevor Lawrence rebounding from an injury plagued season during which he only played in ten games. 

East

Buffalo Bills (13-4) 14-3

Miami Dolphins (8-9) 9-8

New England Patriots (4-13) 7-10

New York Jets (5-12) 7-10

There is no question that the Bills will win the division easily. Their focus is solely on solving recent playoff woes & playing in February. The Dolphins moved some chess pieces around, but I don’t believe their team is any better or worse than last season. QB Tua Tagovailoa only played in 11 games a year ago, and it seems like further concussion issues could seriously jeopardize his career. Patriots QB Drake Maye comes into his second season surrounded by a team that has undergone a significant transformation. Former linebacker & Titans head coach Mike Vrabel now runs the show for the franchise he won three Super Bowls with, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels returns home after realizing he’s not really cut out to be a head coach. Things are looking up in New England, but let’s give them another year before raising expectations. The Jets are the Jets. I know there is some buzz around new quarterback Justin Fields, but I’ve never understood the hype. Former cornerback Aaron Glenn is the Jets’ fifth head coach in the past decade, and unfortunately I don’t think he’ll achieve much more than his last few predecessors.

West

Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) 12-5

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) 10-7

Denver Broncos (10-7) 10-7

Las Vegas Raiders (4-13) 7-10

Have the Chiefs plateaued?? Can they make a fourth consecutive Super Bowl appearance?? I don’t believe it’ll be easy, but as long as Andy Reid is coaching and QB Patrick Mahomes remains healthy with no prominent erosion of his skills it’s too soon to dismiss KC. Having said that, I do think Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers will make things interesting. RB Najee Harris was a bust in Pittsburgh, and he’ll probably cede the starting gig to first rounder Omarion Hampton, but together they could be a formidable duo. A couple of receivers really need to step up for QB Justin Herbert, and the 11th ranked defense has to keep improving. A year ago I underestimated the skills of QB Bo Nix, but he showed alot of potential while leading the Broncos to the playoffs. Denver is probably looking at a very similar season in a really competitive division. I really like the Raiders trading for QB Geno Smith, who should be a significant upgrade over the potpourri of mediocrity that held the job the past couple of years. Super Bowl winning head coach Pete Carroll has also come out of retirement to lead the charge, which is oddly encouraging. With the addition of first round RB Ashton Jeanty & continued growth of tight end Brock Bowers there are signs of hope in Vegas, but their middle of the pack defense has to improve or they’ll continue to lose more games than they win.

Playoffs: Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Texans, Chargers, Broncos, Bengals

AFC Title: Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens 

Philadelphia Eagles  24

Buffalo Bills    27

Top 5 Picks in the 2026 NFL Draft

1 Cleveland Browns

2 New York Giants

3 Carolina Panthers 

4 New Orleans Saints 

5 Tennessee Titans

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 18

First of all, F*^K YOU NFL. As silly as it may seem, last weekend, when RedZone host Scott Hanson changed his familiar catchphrase “seven hours of commercial free football” because they’re now running a few commercials during the broadcast, it upset me to the point that I was ready to drop out of every fantasy league I’m in and stop doing these picks in the future. Perhaps I have a screw loose. Or maybe the holiday season, which isn’t as merry & bright in my world as it once was, had me all up in my feelings. Thankfully I chilled out enough that my Steelers getting trucked by the Chiefs on Christmas Day barely raised my blood pressure. I still don’t know how I will proceed with RedZone, which I’ve loved for several years. The NFL has tested my patience for awhile with their “social justice” initiatives and watering down the game under the guise of “safety”, but RedZone felt like the last bastion for pure enjoyment of the sport. Now, a corporation that makes BILLIONS of dollars in profits is tainting that innocence for a few more ad dollars that won’t make or break them. It’s sick. Perhaps they’ll change their mind, but I won’t hold my breath. At any rate, Zach (3-2) bested me (1-4) once again to draw within one game of a tie for the season, which still doesn’t upset me as much as the whole RedZone situation.

My Season: 49-55

Zach’s Season: 48-56

Denver at Cincinnati (-3)

Both teams are still fighting for a playoff berth, but the 7-8 Bengals need some help. Obviously that starts with winning this game. Conversely, the 9-6 Broncos will be in with a victory. I really had both of these teams pegged wrong, believing that Cincinnati would bounce back from last season and be a factor in the AFC North, while Denver would secure a Top 5 draft pick. The opposite has occurred with both teams. Having said that, I think the home team wins on their turf and hangs on to a thread of hope for the postseason. Zach appreciates what the Broncos have accomplished with rookie QB Bo Nix, but feels they are an unfinished product with some work to do. He doesn’t like the Bengals defense at all, but gives the nod to Cincy & QB Joe Burrow in a shootout.

My Pick: Cincinnati 

Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati 

Green Bay at Minnesota (-1.5)

It might be the best game of the weekend. Both teams will make the playoffs, but the 13-2 Vikings can still claim a division title and maybe even a first round bye if things go their way. In their previous meeting way back in September Minnesota got a close win on the road, so I expect things to balance out with the 11-4 Packers returning the favor. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Green Bay 

Zach’s Pick: Green Bay 

Miami (-6.5) at Cleveland

I expected the Dolphins to challenge for a division title, but at 7-8 they’re just fighting to finish with a winning record. No one should be surprised by the futility of the 3-12 Browns, who are even worse than I expected and have dropped off significantly from last year’s mirage of success. The home field doesn’t even matter. It’ll probably be a yawn inducing slugfest, but I believe the visiting favorites will win comfortably. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Miami 

Zach’s Pick: Miami

Atlanta at Washington (-4)

Don’t sleep on this game featuring two of the first eight selections in this past spring’s draft (and 2 of the top 4 quarterbacks). Jayden Daniels has been a revelation for the 10-5 Commanders, who are battling the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC’s third wildcard, while Michael Penix Jr. was just inserted into the lineup a week ago to boost the 8-7 Falcons to the NFC South crown, which is the only way Atlanta or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will qualify for the playoffs. Penix might indeed be the answer in Atlanta, but we don’t really have much data yet, whereas I’ve seen enough to know how great Daniels & the Commanders can be. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Washington  

Zach’s Pick: Washington 

Detroit (-3.5) at San Francisco 

One team has lived up to the hype, while the other has had their season torpedoed by misfortune. At 13-2 the Lions are safely in the postseason field, but they need to win to secure the division title & a first round bye. The 6-9 Niners have been a huge disappointment and will need to confront some tough issues in the offseason. A few months ago I would’ve assumed this to be one of the marquee Monday night games of the entire season, but now it just feels like an afterthought. The outcome of Green Bay-Minnesota could alter Detroit’s approach to the game, but either way I believe they will prevail. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Detroit 

Zach’s Pick: Detroit

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 16

College football’s conference championships were a bit kinder to Zach (5-4) than me (3-6), meaning that I have fallen to .500 for the season. Can I keep my head above water, or will Zach continue to cut into my lead?? We’re riding with the NFL this week, as division races and playoff battles begin to come into focus down the stretch. 

My Season: 47-47

Zach’s Season: 42-52

Miami at Houston (-3)

The 8-5 Texans seem to have the AFC South well in hand, with a two game lead and four games remaining. However, we never know who might get hot at the right time or which teams could implode. The 6-7 Dolphins aren’t winning the AFC East, but remain mathematically in the wild card chase. Every game is a must win for them. Miami is playing better in the back half of the schedule, while Houston was more effective early on, so I’m leaning toward a mild upset. Zach understands the momentum factor, but simply feels as though Houston is the better team.

My Pick: Miami

Zach’s Pick: Houston 

Buffalo at Detroit (-1.5)

The 10-3 Bills will win their division, but still have work to do to earn a first round bye, which is possible if they keep winning and the KC Chiefs falter a bit. Meanwhile, the 12-1 Lions are in the driver’s seat for the NFC’s first round bye, but the Philadelphia Eagles are hot on their heels. This very well could be a Super Bowl preview. I think the home field is huge, because if Detroit had to visit ice cold & snowy Buffalo the outcome wouldn’t be in much doubt. However, in the cozy confines of domed Ford Field I like the Lions to come out on top. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Detroit

Zach’s Pick: Detroit 

Tampa Bay at LA Chargers (-3)

Credit where it is due…QB Baker Mayfield is finally living up to the hype that accompanied him winning the 2017 Heisman Trophy and being the #1 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. He has the 7-6 Bucs atop the NFC South, although let’s be honest…they are a level below the top 2 or 3 teams in the conference. A step below is also where the 8-5 Chargers find themselves, although I assume most everyone connected to the organization is happy to be in that spot. They have a firm grasp on a wildcard berth, but also need to keep on winning. This might be one of the best battles of the weekend, and my money is on the home team getting the job done.  Zach is all in on head coach Jim Harbaugh.

My Pick: LA Chargers 

Zach’s Pick: LA Chargers

Indianapolis at Denver (-4)

The 8-5 Broncos are one of the most surprising stories in the league, atleast for me. Rookie QB Bo Nix has exceeded all expectations and has his team poised to claim a wildcard spot. Conversely, the 6-7 Colts have been a model of inconsistency. Injuries have been part of that equation, but frankly it just seems like they are a team in flux, hoping for the pieces to fall into place someday. Obviously that could happen, especially if QB Anthony Richardson eventually fulfill’s his potential. As for this game, I foresee the underdogs putting up a hell of a fight, but the home team is likely to win rather easily. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Denver

Zach’s Pick: Denver

Green Bay (-3) at Seattle

The Sunday night games have been hit or miss this season, and especially this time of year, after enjoying RedZone all day, I am inclined to watch an old Christmas movie rather than more football. However, I’ll probably be watching this game. Packers’ QB Jordan Love is a great example of someone raising the bar and fulfilling expectations in his fifth year in the league. Having said that, even at 9-4, Green Bay is in third place in their division. They’ll need to stay on their toes to secure a playoff berth. The same goes for the 8-5 Seahawks, who are in a dogfight for the NFC West crown. Will they win the division?? Earn a wild card?? Miss the playoffs altogether?? With one of the most significant home field advantages in the NFL I believe Seattle will remain on the positive side of that discussion for now. Conversely, Zach really likes Love to lead his team to a solid victory.

My Pick: Seattle 

Zach’s Pick: Green Bay

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 12

Kudos to Zach for the win a week ago after picking Alabama over LSU. I did not see that particular beatdown coming. This week is a bit unusual, as we’re only picking one college game. The schedule just didn’t seem that appealing, which is odd considering those teams are coming down the stretch with conference titles & playoff berths still up for grabs. At any rate, we’ll pick up the slack with NFL matchups that will ultimately make a difference in division races & playoff seeding.

My Season: 35-32

Zach’s Season: 31-36

Tennessee at Georgia (-9.5)

The 8-1 Vols are leading the SEC and have two four game winning streaks this season, separated by one 4th quarter collapse at Arkansas. Meanwhile, the 7-2 Bulldogs, who have won two of the last three national championships, are fighting for their playoff lives. The margin for error is basically nonexistent for both teams, and what surprises me most are the points. Sure, they have the home field…but IF the Bulldogs win it won’t be by more than a touchdown. Conversely, Zach sees Tennessee as fool’s gold, while Georgia will be fighting mad with their backs against the wall. He doesn’t think they’ll lose two in a row.

My Pick: Tennessee 

Zach’s Pick: Georgia

Green Bay (-6.5) at Chicago

The NFC North, or what ESPN legend Chris Berman used to call the Norris Division, is up for grabs, with 6-3 Green Bay still in the hunt, although ultimately I believe the Detroit Lions Lions will prevail. At 4-5 the Bears seem to be just as bad as last season, with rookie QB Caleb Williams looking like the epic failure I knew he’d be. Don’t be surprised if the home team puts up a spirited fight for three quarters, but at the end of the day the Packers should win comfortably. Zach hasn’t given up on Williams yet, but understands the team overall just isn’t very good.

My Pick: Green Bay

Zach’s Pick: Green Bay

Atlanta at Denver (-2.5)

The 6-4 Falcons lead their division, which might surprise people, although it shouldn’t. I don’t believe they’re ready to pose a serious postseason threat to the better teams in the NFC, but progress is progress. Conversely, the 5-5 Broncos play in the same division as the only unbeaten team in the NFL (as well as back-to-back defending Super Bowl Champions), so they’ll need to be happy with whatever scraps of triumph they can snag here & there. Unfortunately for the home team I don’t think even the much ballyhooed high altitude of Denver will save them, and I don’t know what the hell the oddsmakers were smoking. Zach has a little more faith in the Broncos to remain competitive, but agrees that the visitors will walk away victorious.

My Pick: Atlanta

Zach’s Pick: Atlanta 

Seattle at San Francisco (-6.5)

It’s a bit of a shocker that both teams sit behind Arizona in their division, although I expect that’ll change soon enough. The 4-5 Seahawks have got to tighten things up on defense because they won’t defeat many opponents who score 25+ points. The 5-4 Niners are in slightly better shape and can blame alot of their problems on injuries. This feels like a must-win for both teams. Having said that, I will boldly predict that one of them will win the division instead of the Cardinals, and perhaps both end up in the playoffs…even the loser this week. I don’t know who comes out n top, but I believe it’ll be way closer than the “experts” indicate. Zach observes ‘Frisco getting healthy, which spells trouble for their opponents.

My Pick: Seattle

Zach’s Pick: San Francisco 

Kansas City at Buffalo (-2.5)

The best game of the week (probably) will be played in the late afternoon window on Sunday, which means I can skip Chris Collinsworth violating my ears Sunday night. The Chiefs are undefeated, with a variety of meaningless opinions being tossed around as to how that has occurred. The Bills are 8-2 and have essentially already won their otherwise putrid division. Look, we already know how this goes…both are playoff locks who are strong Super Bowl favorites no matter what happens this week. What matters is seeding and who will (potentially) host the AFC title game. The outcome may differ in that presumed future contest, but with the home field, and considering the fact that KC will be relying on a backup kicker after Harrison Butker suffered a knee injury, I foresee Buffalo winning. Zach believes Kansas City has been lucky to remain unbeaten, and in a last minute, game winning drive scenario predicts that QB Patrick Mahomes will keep them perfect for the time being.

My Pick: Buffalo 

Zach’s Pick: Kansas City