Cincinnati

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

Last week I went 2-4-1, with Louisville & the Detroit Lions really letting me down. I am perfectly aware when I roll the dice and have come to expect that more often than not I lose those gambles, but there are times when I am actually pretty confident that a pick is as close to a lock as one can hope for in football and when I lose those it really stings. Unfortunately I have lost a lot of those this season, which is why my overall record now stands at 28-47-1. If I were a coach or being paid by anyone to do this I would have already been shown the door. Luckily I am my own boss here so I can just move forward and hope to do better this week. The college schedule is inexplicably polluted with top teams playing cupcakes, which seems weird so late in the season, and the NFL schedule is beginning to feel repetitive & tedious at this juncture, but I have cobbled together 7 games that should be entertaining enough.

 

 

 

Florida State (-31)            at            Maryland

This is one of those games where the outcome is almost a foregone conclusion, but the interesting thing is the spread. The 9-1 Seminoles will almost certainly beat the 4-6 Terrapins, but will they win by over 4 TDs?? Such large victories are not foreign to Florida St., as they have won over half of their games by more than 40 points. Meanwhile, Maryland, who I crazily ranked 15th in my pre-season Top 25, has lost a lot but they weren’t being blown out until their last two games. I am going out on a limb and predicting that Florida St. has a slightly off week and only wins by 20-28 points.

 

 

Rutgers                at            Cincinnati (-6)

It was the Bearcats that I picked to win The Big East and finish in the top 15, but even though they have an impressive 7-2 record it is their opponent this week, the Scarlet Knights, who are currently ranked in the Top 25. That could flip flop here with a Cincinnati victory. I think these are two evenly matched teams and it should be an exciting game, so when all other things are equal the home field advantage comes into play. I think Cincinnati wins & covers, and maybe next week we’ll see them ranked.

 

 

USC (-3.5)            at            UCLA

I wonder when the last time these two teams played against one another in a meaningful game?? It seems like the Bruins have been below average for a number of years, all while the Trojans have been constantly in the thick of the national championship conversation. This game could possibly decide who represents The Pac 12 in The Rose Bowl, assuming Oregon makes it to the title game. Both teams are ranked in the top 20, but one gets the feeling that USC is struggling to hold on (they’ve lost 2 out of their last 3) while UCLA is riding a 4 game winning streak. Normally I would go with the home team in a game like this, but it is quite telling that the boys in Vegas consider Southern Cal the favorite. The vibes are strong with this one, as I sense that the Trojans will seize the opportunity to save their season.

 

 

Texas Tech          at            Oklahoma State (-10)

I have really been enjoying The Big 12 this season, except for the part where my WV Mountaineers completely suck and are struggling to become bowl eligible after all the pre-season hype of a possible national title run. Anyway, these are both solid teams in the lower echelon of the Top 25, but after they clash one will obviously fall by the wayside while one remains ranked. I assume it’ll be a high scoring game and fun to watch. I am a little surprised that it’s a double digit spread, which is kind of disrespectful to a very talented Red Raider team. However, Tech has lost 2 out of their past 4 games and went to overtime to win the other two, so I suppose the odds make sense. I just have a feeling it’ll be a little bit closer than that though, so Texas Tech is the pick.

 

 

Stanford              at            Oregon (-20.5)

I have learned my lesson. The Ducks win and they win big. But after Alabama was knocked off their perch last week it is Oregon that sits in the driver’s seat while Kansas St. & Notre Dame battle for the #2 spot, so might they take their foot off the gas just a little bit?? Stanford is much more on the level of USC, who Oregon defeated by only 11 points, and Arizona St., who the Ducks beat by a mere 22 points, rather than the likes of Arizona, Washington, or Cal that were all destroyed by the boys in green by 30+ points. This’ll probably be one of those games that the oddsmakers have somehow magically pegged perfectly, meaning that either way I go I’ll be sweating it out right down to the last possession. I have too much respect for Stanford to believe that they’ll get smoked by 3 TDs, so I’ll pick them to cover the spread. I am sure I’ll regret it. So yeah…I guess I didn’t learn my lesson.

 

 

Tampa Bay (-1.5)             at            Carolina

Wow, did I ever have the Panthers figured wrong. I thought they’d be a playoff team and QB Cam Newton would continue his rise to prominence. Instead Newton is a headcase that is looking more like a bad mix of the worst of Vince Young & Donovan McNabb, and his supporting cast isn’t nearly as good as I’d thought they’d be. Conversely, the Bucs are riding rookie RB Doug Martin straight into playoff contention. Plain & simple…it’s over for Carolina, while Tampa has to keep winning to stay in contention in the ultra-competitive NFC.

 

 

Chicago                at            San Francisco (-5)

Earlier this week I thought this’d be a game featuring two backup quarterbacks. Both Bears’ signal caller and 49ers starter Alex Smith were injured last weekend, but it looks like Smith is good to go. Chicago will rely on former Redskins & Raiders QB Jason Campbell, who isn’t a bad second option. This was always going to be a defensive struggle no matter who was behind center, so I don’t think it matters all that much anyway. It’s this week Monday night game and it should be a low scoring affair with lots of handoffs & punts. I am sure the folks at ESPN are thrilled. At any rate, conventional wisdom favors the home team and the spread isn’t outrageous, so I’ll go with Frisco to pull out a yawn inspiring victory.

 

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 5

 

Well…atleast last week I upgraded back to mediocrity from the depths of ineptitude that plagued my previous effort. That’s my lame effort to polish another turd anyway. I went 4-5. I suppose the good news is that at this point some trends in both college football & the NFL are beginning to emerge, and we are starting to get a better idea of which teams are truly good and which ones aren’t likely to cut the mustard in 2012. I am confident that this knowledge will help me significantly improve my 11-19 record, as long as I can minimize my propensity for making off-the-wall choices. The fact is that my vibes are about as accurate as a Tim Tebow pass across the middle, and I am man enough to admit it. At any rate, let’s talk football and make some picks!!

 

 

 

Tennessee          at            Georgia (-15.5)

Now the real season begins. The Vols come into this game 3-1, but like a lot of other college teams they haven’t played anybody. Ditto for the Bulldogs, who are 4-0 and ranked #5 in the polls. In my pre-season rankings I put Tennessee at #12 and left Georgia unranked. Was I right, or am I insane?? This game might decide that. To be honest, I’d be very surprised if Tennessee actually won. Georgia is as good as most of the pundits said they would be before the season began. My supposition that there are such a plethora of good teams in the SEC that someone has to be left on the outside looking in is very likely true, but it looks like the Bulldogs won’t be that team. However, I find the spread on this game interesting. The only legitimate piece of evidence we have to examine is Tennessee’s loss to Florida a couple of weeks ago, in which they were beaten by 17 points, and that isn’t really any help. So do I go with the experts, or do I go with my unreliable vibes?? There is an element of pride here wherein I just cannot bring myself to abandon what was a risky pre-season pick. The Vols may not win this game, but I have the backs of my boys from Rocky Top and will assume they have enough testicular fortitude to be competitive and cover the spread.

 

 

Ohio State          at            Michigan State (-1)

Ohio St. is 4-0 and ranked among the top 20, even though they are ineligible for post-season play. The Spartans are 3-1, having defeated Boise St. and two cupcakes while falling to the hated Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. The Buckeyes have looked less than impressive in narrow victories over Cal & UAB the past two weeks, so they are going to have to wake up and realize they are playing a real opponent now. Michigan St. is a slight favorite only because of the home field advantage. I really like young OSU signal caller Braxton Miller, but I’m not impressed with their defense. Michigan St. RB Le’veon Bell is a native of a small Columbus, OH suburb but wasn’t recruited by Ohio St. One thing I love about college football is that little things like that can be important. Bell is averaging 150 yards/game, and though I don’t expect he’ll be quite that successful this week I do believe he’ll make an impact. That’s enough for me to pick Michigan St.

 

 

Virginia Tech (-6)             vs.          Cincinnati

The Hokies come into this contest 3-1 and giving off mixed signals. They defeated Georgia Tech in overtime but inexplicably lost to the horrible Pitt Panthers a couple weeks ago. I picked the Bearcats #11 in my pre-season poll  with the logic that someone has to win The Big East, and thus far they are 2-0 and coming off a rather early bye week. Cincinnati, by the way, beat the same Pitt team that defeated Virginia Tech. I would really love to pick Cincinnati here, not only because I put them in my Top 25 but also because I have always had a robust disdain for Virginia Tech. However, the game is in Blacksburg and I find it difficult to believe that they’ll lose two games in a row. Coming out of a bye should mean the Bearcats are healthy, well rested, and full of energy. If the game was in Cincy or the spread was larger I’d go with my heart, but neither of things is true so I am forced to hold my nose and pick the hated Hokies.

 

 

Texas (-2)            at            Oklahoma State

West Virginia Mountaineer fans might be fully focused on their inaugural Big 12 game against Baylor, but they should take note of this matchup of two future foes. One team will move forward in its quest for the conference title, while the loser of this game is very likely out of the running pretty darn quickly. Texas is trying to rebound from two straight subpar seasons and thus far have looked more like the old successful Longhorns that we are all used to rather than whoever those impostors were the past couple of years. Oklahoma St. has beaten two cupcakes and lost to Arizona, leading the nation in points scored along the way. I picked both teams to sneak into the Top 25 in my pre-season poll, and that could still happen, but the winner here will certainly have a leg up. I am mildly surprised that the visitors are the favorites, even though it is only a 2 point spread. I almost always go with the home team in these situations, and there is a huge question as to whether or not Texas is truly “back” after the way they have played in recent years. That question may not be fully answered this week, but we’ll get a good idea. The vibes are literally having an argument in my head about this one and I really feel like it’s a tossup. But hey, I have to pick someone, right?? I guess I will play it safe and choose the Longhorns, but no outcome will surprise me all that much.

 

 

Minnesota          at            Detroit (-4.5)

I know the NFL values parity, but this season has been ridiculous. At this point I wouldn’t be shocked if the playoffs are chock full of 8-8 teams. I don’t think anyone foresaw the Vikings upset of San Francisco last week, which made Minnesota 2-1. Meanwhile, the evolution of the Lions from pretenders to contenders seems to have stalled a bit, as they come into this game 1-2, although to be fair they barely lost last week to Tennessee in overtime. Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson is kinda sorta back from a knee injury, but he has yet to break 100 yards in a game this season. Detroit might have found its answer at RB with the long awaited debut of Mikel Leshoure, who gained 100 yards in his first NFL game last week. In my mind this matchup comes down to one thing: Matthew Stafford & Calvin Johnson vs. Christian Ponder & Percy Harvin. Whoever hits the big plays will win. I don’t think the Vikings can duplicate their tremendous effort from last week, so I’ll go with the home team favorites.

 

 

Chicago                at            Dallas (-3.5)

This is the Monday night game this week. Both teams are 2-1 and haven’t given fans any inclination one way or another who they really are. Bears’ QB Jay Cutler is a mediocre headcase with loads of unrealized potential. The entire Cowboys franchise is a mediocre headcase with loads of unrealized potential. Seriously…every single year multiple talking heads pick both of these teams to do great things, and every year both teams fall way short of expectations. At this point I’m not sure why anyone cares. Both of these teams are teams that people watch their games to see whoever their opponent is. A game pitting the two of them against each other is like two second-rate and largely disappointing worlds colliding. It’s like watching a movie with a bunch of character actors and no leading men. But I guess I have to pick someone. Honestly I’d have more fun skipping this choice and watching The Weather Channel. In my NFL preview I predicted the Bears to go 9-7 and miss the playoffs, while I said the Cowboys would go 10-6 and be a wildcard. I suppose that one game difference is this one, so I’ll pick Dallas.

 

 

San Diego (1.5)                 at            Kansas City

The Chargers come into this game 2-1, while the Chiefs are 1-2. I would have thought it’d be the other way around. Kansas City leads the NFL in rushing, but that statistic is misleading since it is largely based on RB Jamaal Charles gaining a whopping 233 yards last week in a huge overtime victory over the New Orleans Saints. San Diego is 4th in the NFL in rushing defense, so something will have to give here. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, which in recent years has become a much more entertaining product than ESPN’s Monday night offering. That obviously has nothing to do with the actual game, although I am guessing that teams might get energized by being the prime time center of attention. At any rate, the winner here will gain a small advantage in the race for the AFC West division crown, so it is far from a meaningless game. In my NFL preview I said the Chargers would go 6-10 and head coach Norv Turner would soon be unemployed, while I picked Kansas City to sneak into the playoffs as a wildcard. I guess I should stand behind my own predictions, so I’ll go with the underdog Chiefs.

 

 

 

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