2025 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 14

It seems that we have arrived at Rivalry Week in college football, atleast the ones left standing after realignment. Most of these games, both college & pro, are happening on Thanksgiving Day & Black Friday, with a couple of huge battles taking center stage on Saturday. I am old enough to remember when only two NFL games…one featuring the Dallas Cowboys and the other with the Detroit Lions…took place on the holiday, but now we’re getting three Thanksgiving pro games and a game on Black Friday, in addition to a half dozen rather entertaining college games. No complaints here. Turkey & stuffing, football, Christmas movies, pie, and a whole lot of football sounds like a great time to me.

Observations from Last Week:

  • Unsportsmanlike conduct on the college level & roughing the passer in the NFL are two of the most ridiculously applied penalties, and that needs to be addressed in the offseason.
  • Why is it a Two Minute Warning in the NFL, but the Two Minute Timeout in college?? Is it a proprietary thing, or are college kids deemed too delicate for an ominous warning?? 
  • When I was a kid and announcers would mention “field goal range”, I thought that meant that the offense was required to make it to a certain area of the field before they were allowed to attempt a FG. I didn’t realize that…theoretically…a field goal can be tried from anywhere, though obviously it is unwise to do so.
  • So…JJ McCarthy is a bust. Alrighty then 🤦🏻‍♂️.
  • I can’t help but wonder what the Steelers offense might’ve looked like with Jameis Winston playing quarterback.

My Season: 42-35

Zach’s Season: 34-43

Ole Miss (-8.5) at Mississippi State 

The conversation surrounding the 122nd Egg Bowl has been dominated by the future of Lane Kiffin, who might be headed for allegedly greener pastures following his sixth season in Oxford. The 10-1 Rebels need help to reach the SEC title game even if they win, but a loss obviously knocks them out. The 5-6 Bulldogs must win to become bowl eligible. Ole Miss leads the series 66-46-6 and have won 4 of the past 5 meetings. I don’t see that changing this year, and though the points do give me pause, I think the favorites win by ten. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Ole Miss 

Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss 

Iowa (-4.5) at Nebraska

This is a relatively new and decidedly intermittent “rivalry”. The teams have done battle on the gridiron 55 times since 1891, but after Nebraska joined the Big Ten in 2011 it has become an annual Black Friday tradition. Both teams are 7-4, and though they’re not in the conference championship conversation, they’d love to finish strong and travel to a great bowl location. It feels like a tossup to me, so I’m riding with the Huskers at home to score a mild upset. Conversely, Zach foresees Iowa slowing the tempo & dominating time of possession en route to a victory.

My Pick: Nebraska 

Zach’s Pick: Iowa

Utah (-13.5) at Kansas

The 9-2 Utes need ALOT of help to back into the Big 12 title game, which seems unlikely. However, the first order of business is to win. That won’t be easy against the 5-6 Jayhawks, who have shown flashes of potential this season but find themselves in a must win scenario to achieve bowl eligibility. I’m not bold enough to pick an upset outright, but I do believe it’ll be closer than two touchdowns. Zach just thinks Utah is the better team. He predicts Kansas will remain competitive thru the first half before the visitors take over and win comfortably.

My Pick: Kansas

Zach’s Pick: Utah

Georgia (-12.5) vs. Georgia Tech

This is theoretically a neutral site game in Atlanta, although Tech’s campus is literally two miles down the road, whereas Athen, GA (home of the Bulldogs) is about 70 miles away. After getting to 8-0 and looking like a sure thing to play for the ACC title, the Yellow Jackets have lost two of their last three games and find themselves on the outside looking in unless a whole bunch of dominoes fall the right way. Conversely, the 10-1 Bulldogs only need Alabama OR Texas A&M to lose to secure a spot in the SEC Championship, which seems plausible. They call this game “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate”, which might be the dumbest freakin’ rivalry name I’ve ever heard. Anyway, Georgia leads the series 72-41-5 and has won seven consecutive matchups. I don’t think that’ll change this year, and I believe it’ll be a rather decisive victory. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Georgia

Texas A&M (-2.5) at Texas

Forgive me if I’ve mentioned it in previous years, but I always associate this game with the 1982 Burt Reynolds/Dolly Parton classic The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas, in which the winning team is rewarded with a visit to The Chicken Ranch. In case you’re unfamiliar with the movie, though there are plenty of legs, thighs, and breasts, there are absolutely no chickens in sight. At any rate, the Aggies are undefeated and have probably locked up a spot in the CFP, but they need to win to guarantee an SEC Championship appearance, otherwise there’s a chance they could miss out. The 8-3 Longhorns haven’t been as successful as they’d hoped entering the season, but are still clinging to slim hopes of a CFP bid. The game being played in Austin concerns me just a bit, but I’m pulling for A&M to come out on top in an all time classic. Zach views the Aggies as well coached and likes QB Marcel Reed. He thinks Texas has shown improvement, but it won’t matter this week.

My Pick: Texas A&M

Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M

Arizona (-1.5) at Arizona State

The 8-3 Sun Devils still have an opportunity to play for the Big 12 title, but they need a couple other teams to lose. The Wildcats are also 8-3 but aren’t in championship contention. They should receive a fun bowl bid though. It is alternatively called the Duel in the Desert (👍🏻) or the Territorial Cup (👀), and there have been 98 previous meetings dating back to 1899. Arizona leads the series 51-45-1, although State has won six of the last eight games. These two teams feel even enough that the home field plays a role, so I am picking the mild upset. Zach thinks Arizona is the hotter team right now so he’s riding that hot hand.

My Pick: Arizona State

Zach’s Pick: Arizona 

Alabama (-6.5) at Auburn 

To be honest, I didn’t originally plan for us to pick this many games, and considered skipping the 90th Iron Bowl. However, despite the fact that ‘Bama has won the past five meetings and Auburn isn’t very good, I just couldn’t do it. The 5-6 Tigers have to win to achieve bowl eligibility, while the 9-2 Tide haven’t locked in a playoff berth just yet. The Tide has rolled to an all time series lead of 51-37-1 dating back to 1893. I would LOVE to see an upset, although I’m not dumb enough to put money on it. However, I think it is very possible that we see a close contest decided by a field goal in the final minute. Zach has faith in the visiting favorites to dominate in the 4th quarter when it matters most.

My Pick: Auburn

Zach’s Pick: Alabama 

Ohio State (-12.5) at Michigan

In my humble opinion, this is THE greatest rivalry…certainly in college football, and perhaps in the entirety of sports. Simply known as The Game, it has been played 120 times since 1897, with Michigan leading the series 62-51-6. Michigan has been victorious the past four years after Ohio St. had won eight consecutive meetings from 2012-19. Unless you’ve been off the grid for awhile you’re aware that the unbeaten Buckeyes have been the #1 team in the country all season. The Wolverines are a rather low key 9-2, with unfortunate losses on the road at Oklahoma & USC eradicating their conference title aspirations. I’d be quite surprised by an Ohio St. loss, but the points scare me, and the status of injured receivers Jeremiah Smith & Carnell Tate remains up in the air. If those dudes play the favorites win comfortably, but if they don’t then the outcome becomes questionable. I will roll the dice on both players being available. Unsurprisingly, Zach is all Blue all the time and has no respect for Ohio St.’s weak schedule.

My Pick: Ohio St.

Zach’s Pick: Michigan 

Green Bay at Detroit (-2.5)

Though it might be an NFC title preview, right now it is a battle for the division crown. The Packers sit a half game behind Chicago, while the Lions are a half game behind Green Bay. The Bears are receiving alot of love at the moment, but I still believe these two teams will surpass them. Green Bay won the season opener at Lambeau, but I think we’ll see a different result this time, with the RB tandem of Jahmyr Gibbs & David Montgomery helping Detroit grind their way to an important win. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Detroit

Zach’s Pick: Detroit

Kansas City (-3.5) at Dallas

The 6-5 Chiefs saved their season…for the moment…with an overtime win over Indianapolis, but the path doesn’t become easier. The 5-5-1 Cowboys also kept their head above water with a surprising victory over Philadelphia. So, once more unto the breach go two teams that had higher expectations yet find themselves scratching & clawing to avoid irrelevance. I wouldn’t be shocked if both eventually make it to the postseason, but neither will I be surprised if both are sitting at home during the playoffs. This game might be better than sweet potatoes & cranberry sauce, and I believe in KC to continue their climb out of the abyss. Zach, on the other hand, feels like Dallas has the momentum and will continue to improve.

My Pick: Kansas City

Zach’s Pick: Dallas

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)

Anyone with a brain knew that the Ravens weren’t done, despite beginning the season 1-5. Now, after five straight victories (and because the Steelers are mid at best), Baltimore sits atop the AFC North. Meanwhile, the 3-8 Bengals will have QB Joe Burrow back in the saddle for the first time since he injured his toe way back in September. There’s no way Cincy climbs back into playoff contention, but they will undoubtedly be better with their starting quarterback. This is the nightcap on Thanksgiving, and I’ll probably be watching Christmas movies. I would love to see an upset, but unfortunately that seems unlikely. Zach is a bit more hopeful, as he thinks the Bengals can come out on top in a shootout.

My Pick: Baltimore

Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati 

Chicago at Philadelphia (-7)

I have absolutely zero interest in Black Friday shopping, but even if I did I believe the way that whole thing works is the stores open obscenely early, and all the wackos who actually enjoy the insanity are finished and home by noon. So if you are participating you should still be able to catch the 3pm kickoff…if you have Prime Video. Anyway, it’s a great matchup featuring the 8-3 Bears, winners of four in a row, including a gritty skirmish with my offensively challenged Steelers, against the 8-3 Eagles, who still hold an overwhelming division lead despite forgetting to show up during the second half in their recent loss to the Cowboys. I may be proven wrong, but I’m still not sold on the Bears & QB Caleb Williams. Conversely, Philly’s track record speaks for itself, and it’s way too early to disregard their chance to be repeat champions. Zach believes the Bears just might be for real, and he predicts they’ll find a way to win a close one.

My Pick: Philadelphia

Zach’s Pick: Chicago

2025 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 8

Do you smell that?!?!?? The air has become noticeably chilly. Baseball is in the home stretch. Hockey season has started. The NBA’s preseason has begun, even if no one cares. Christmas decorations are already trying to muscle Halloween decor off store shelves. October has its own vibe, and as I’ve matured I have finally begun to understand the charm of it all. Of course, especially for our purposes here, football is still the best thing going right now, which is fine by me.

Observations from Last Week:

  • It was always Tom Brady…and cheating, never Bill Belichick. He’s been exposed as a fraud.
  • God help me, but my initial reaction to Penn St. QB Drew Allar suffering a season ending leg injury was “Great…now his draft stock will fall and the Steelers will pat themselves on the back, expecting fans to be in awe of their genius for picking him in the 3rd or 4th round 🤦🏻‍♂️.” Anyway, the James Franklin Era in Happy Valley is over, which is a bit shocking since the Nittany Lions were a Top 5 team not long ago.
  • I guess the Indiana Hoosiers might actually be legit. Too bad their head coach will probably bolt for “greener pastures” by the end of the year.
  • Are my Steelers peeps still upset they let Justin Fields walk??
  • Biggest NFL surprises thus far: Colts 👍🏻, Ravens 😂, and Patriots 🤔.

My Season: 23-18

Zach’s Season: 13-28

Texas A&M (-7.5) at Arkansas

The undefeated Aggies have really snuck up on everyone. After six good but certainly not transcendent seasons with Jimbo Fisher at the helm, the Aggies made a change last year and brought in Mike Elko from Duke. He went 8-5 a season ago, and his team was ranked in the Top 20 in most preseason polls, but I don’t believe anybody expected A&M to be in the mix with Alabama, Georgia, and LSU for the SEC crown. Conversely, the Razorbacks are 2-4 and already fired their head coach. Bobby Petrino has been handed the interim gig, which is kind of like casting Charlie Sheen as the lead in a community theater project. You know he brings a certain level of talent & experience, but are understandably nervous about possible collateral damage. I don’t expect an upset, but I feel like Petrino might know enough Jedi mind tricks to make sure his team doesn’t get embarrassed. I still think that means a 10-15 point loss though. Zach likes A&M’s defense to hold the line.

My Pick: Texas A&M 

Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M

Texas Tech (-11.5) at Arizona State

I ranked the unbeaten Red Raiders 14th in the preseason and made note of three important games. In the first of those Tech beat the snot out of Utah by more than three touchdowns. This is the second big one, and the 4-2 Sun Devils have to be asking themselves alot of questions after a beatdown by…Utah. I believe the home field helps State a little bit, but I remain high on Tech and foresee a two TD victory. Zach doesn’t think it’ll be much of a contest and likes the visiting favorites to win big.

My Pick: Texas Tech

Zach’s Pick: Texas Tech

Southern California at Notre Dame (-7.5)

Wow, this old rivalry has really lost its mojo, huh?? Notre Dame leads the all time series 50-37-5 and has won six of the past seven meetings. Citizens of The Manoverse are aware by now that The Irish were my preseason #1, but once they lost their first two games that blew up in my face. They’ve since won four in a row though, so good for them. The Trojans are 5-1, with only a last second field goal by Illinois blemishing their record, which makes the odds for this game feel disrespectful. I sense a hard fought battle on the horizon. Low scoring. Lots of defense. Field position. Time of possession. Perhaps a turnover or two or three. A score of 20-ish to 16-ish. I don’t know who wins, but it’ll be by less than a touchdown. Zach believes Notre Dame was always overrated, while USC is playing at a higher level than they have in several years.

My Pick: USC

Zach’s Pick: USC

Utah (-3.5) at BYU

When we think of football hotbeds places like Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania spring to mind. Most folks probably don’t think of The Beehive State, home of the Sundance Film Festival, The Osmond Family, the Great Salt Lake, and Wilford Brimley, as a place to find great football. However, right now, it is where you’ll see two Top 25 teams with a combined record of 11-1, and the Utes shouldn’t feel bad about losing to Texas Tech. BYU’s double OT triumph over Arizona might’ve been the best game of them all last weekend, but it makes me wonder if they can rise to that level again so soon, especially freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Don’t miss this game on Saturday night if you can possibly set other things aside for a few hours. Zach thinks the Cougars are better defensively and that’ll be the difference.

My Pick: Utah

Zach’s Pick: BYU

Houston at Seattle (-3.5)

The Texans are the AFC’s forgotten team. At 2-3 they sit below the Jags and the surprising Colts, who’ve been the talk of the NFL, but are better than the Titans, who just fired their head coach. It’s going to be tough for Houston to position themselves as a playoff contender, but there is still plenty of time. Conversely, the Seahawks are in a much better position in their division but can’t afford to take their foot off the gas. There’s just too much competition. The home field is big in this one, and I think the fans will show up & show out for the MNF audience. Zach predicts a Seattle victory on the strength of their special teams.

My Pick: Seattle

Zach’s Pick: Seattle 

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 19

We’re doing a very quick turnaround because college football’s semifinals begin tonight. I am a little disappointed that so much of the NFL playoff picture was cleared up this past weekend, because I had visions of total chaos that’d push us into considering a few more games. Unfortunately it wasn’t meant to be. The good news is that we both went 4-1, which means that finishing above .500 for the season is within reach. With the college playoff expanding to 12 teams and the way the schedule falls, we will not be picking the semis or the championship game, which is probably for the best. As always I would like to thank my nephew Zach for indulging me with this fun little gig every football season, and give a shout out to anyone who might actually read what is written here. I have not been as productive in 2024 as I could’ve been, and I realize that citizens of The Manoverse who aren’t football fans probably gave up on me months ago. I’ll try to do better in 2025. Happy New Year everyone, and may God bless you as we all get the opportunity to begin again.

My Season: 53-56

Zach’s Season:  52-57

Fiesta Bowl 

CFP Quarterfinal

Penn State (-10.5) vs. Boise State 

The Nittany Lions easily defeated SMU in the first round, while the Broncos had a bye. That system of seeding & byes seems flawed given the fact that Penn St. is a double digit favorite. There will be much hand wringing & consternation in the offseason by folks who essentially believe that only two conferences and maybe a half dozen other teams really matter, which is just more proof that collegiate athletics is broken. As far as this particular contest goes, despite the fact that I’ve accused Penn St. of being overrated on multiple occasions, and I am almost always rooting for the underdog, the fact is that Penn St. will likely win. The question is, can they bitch slap Boise like a few teams got beat down in Round 1?? Boise St.’s only loss was in September at Oregon by three points, so I have to believe that they can stay within ten points of Penn St. Zach thinks that there is a legit chance that Penn St.’s defense has problems stopping Heisman runner-up RB Ashton Jeanty, and doesn’t have much faith in the Nittany Lions coming thru in big games. He agrees that Boise is unlikely to win, but won’t go away quietly.

My Pick: Boise St.

Zach’s Pick: Boise St.

Peach Bowl 

CFP Quarterfinal

Texas (-12.5) vs. Arizona State 

It might be the most entertaining game of the entire tournament. Texas handled Clemson in the first round, while Arizona St. had a bye. In three previous Pac 12 seasons the Sun Devils were 14-23. Head coach Kenny Dillingham, in his second season after serving as offensive coordinator at Auburn, Florida St., & Oregon, has  led a complete turnaround in the program’s inaugural Big 12 campaign. Look, I know that Texas has two QBs and probably a bunch of other players that’ll play in the NFL soon enough. I understand that the only two losses they suffered in their first year in the SEC were to Georgia, winner of two of the past three national championships. I get it. Have you watched Arizona St. play though?? They bulldozed Iowa St. in the Big 12 title game, and their only two losses were by a combined 18 points. Would I love to see a huge upset?? Damn straight. Do I think it will happen?? I’m not holding my breath. However, I do believe it’ll be a much closer game than the “experts” predict. At the beginning of the playoff Zach predicted Arizona St. could make a run and be a serious title contender, so he’s not moving off that now.

My Pick: Arizona St.

Zach’s Pick: Arizona St.

Rose Bowl 

CFP Quarterfinal

Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Oregon

I suppose this should be considered the marquee matchup of the four. Both teams have spent time at #1 this season. The Buckeyes only two losses were to Oregon & arch rival Michigan, and the folks in Columbus were so upset about the latter that some wanted head coach Ryan Day canned. People need to get with the times though. National Championships are no longer mythical. The system is flawed, but there is a system, which means that Ohio St.’s loss to Michigan should be considered less impactful than it might’ve been a decade ago. Sure, they missed out on a conference title and a first round bye, but they are here. They beat the snot out of Tennessee in Round 1 and now everything is in front of them. Meanwhile, in their first Big Ten season the Ducks ran roughshod thru a tough schedule, including a one point October victory over Ohio St., which came down to a field goal in the final two minutes. It is quite instructive that Oregon is considered the underdog. If there is one thing I have tried to learn while doing these picks, it is that oddsmakers know things we don’t, and oftentimes they have an uncanny way of being almost exactly right. So look for the favorites to win by a field goal. Surprisingly, Zach concurs.

My Pick: Ohio St. 

Zach’s Pick: Ohio St.

Sugar Bowl

CFP Quarterfinal

Notre Dame vs. Georgia (-1.5)

Has Notre Dame been overrated?? Sure, they’re 12-1, but the most impressive wins on their resume are the season opener at Texas A&M and a home victory over Louisville. Their Round 1 domination of Indiana has been much discussed, and if you believe the Hoosiers didn’t belong in the playoff (I’m looking at you SEC sycophants) then you can’t give much credence to the Irish winning that game. Conversely, even though Georgia hasn’t been as elite as we’ve been used to the past few seasons, no one questions their seat at the table. However, with QB Carson Beck out with an elbow injury, the intrigue for this contest is turned up a notch or two. I assume Georgia would be a much bigger favorite with Beck, but the fact that they’re still favored at all either shows how much respect the Bulldogs have earned thru the years, or casts a shadow on Notre Dame’s contender status. Perhaps both. The game is being played in Atlanta, which is basically a home field for the favorites. I think we’ll see a low scoring defensive struggle, probably decided by a few special teams plays. In that scenario I believe Georgia finds a way to escape with a close win. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Georgia 

Carolina at Atlanta (-7.5)

In my season preview I predicted that winning the NFC South would be a tough grind, because that’s exactly what it has been in recent years. So here we are. The Falcons have to win, and even then may fall short of the postseason. I am a bit surprised that they benched QB Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. A bold move for sure in a tight playoff race, but whether it is wise or not remains to be seen. The Panthers have been as hapless as I knew they would be, but teams with nothing to lose and an opportunity to play spoiler can be dangerous. I don’t believe the outcome is in much doubt, but Carolina will put up a fight. Still, I look for Atlanta to cover…barely. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Atlanta

Zach’s Pick: Atlanta 

Kansas City at Denver (-10)

I know why the Broncos are favored, but it’s still a bit surprising. Having already locked up the division title and the AFC’s first round bye, the assumption is that KC will sit most of their starters. Meanwhile, the Broncos not only have the home field, but find themselves in a three team dogfight for a wildcard berth. One team will be super motivated, while the other has much bigger goals in mind. I think Denver will get the job done, but even playing with backups I can’t fathom the Chiefs going down by ten points. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Kansas City 

Zach’s Pick: Kansas City 

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-13)

The Saints just haven’t been a good team this season and probably need to consider a total rebuild. Conversely, my assessment of Baker Mayfield was inaccurate, to put it kindly. The Bucs aren’t amongst the best in the conference, but they are scrappy and could catch a playoff opponent off guard. They need to win this game to even get there, but damn…the points are a bit much. When these teams met in The Big Easy in mid-October Tampa opened up a can o’ whoopass and won by 24 points, but I think it’ll be more like 10-12 this time. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: New Orleans  

Zach’s Pick: New Orleans 

Minnesota at Detroit (-2.5)

Both teams come into the game 14-2. The winner will be crowned NFC North champs and be the top seed in that conference, earning a first round bye. The loser will drop all the way back to the #5 seed. It’s the final game of the regular season, broadcast on NBC on Sunday night. I suggest muting your television and finding the radio call. IYKYK. When these teams met in October the Lions kicked the game winning field goal with 15 seconds on the clock. Since then Detroit’s defense has been decimated by injuries, to the point that I don’t believe they can still be considered Super Bowl favorites. If I were a die hard Lions fan, head coach Dan Campbell would drive me insane. Call me old fashioned, but while his aggressiveness is entertaining, it isn’t always wise. I think he’ll do something stupid…fake punt, unnecessarily going for a two point conversion, going for it on 4th down once too often…and it’ll cost his team a division title. Vikings QB Sam Darnold gets Zach’s vote for Comeback Player of the Year, and believes the smart choice is to ride with their momentum.

My Pick: Minnesota

Zach’s Pick: Minnesota 

2021 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 4

It’s been really cool to be a football fan the past couple of weeks. There have been some intense & exciting games that were fun to watch even if one didn’t have a particular rooting interest. Unfortunately all of that good football hasn’t translated into many wins for us. Zach was 1-4 last week, while I went 2-3 thanks to Oklahoma St.’s narrow victory over Boise St.. The good news is that we are starting to get a sense, at both the college & NFL levels, of which teams are going to be successful and who might struggle this season. Hopefully that bodes well for us if we’re smart…but don’t hold your breath. 

My Season: 10-11

Zach’s Season: 8-13

Notre Dame vs. Wisconsin (-5.5)

The Irish were a preseason playoff team for me, though I also ranked the Badgers in the Top 20. Notre Dame is 3-0 but hasn’t been that impressive against teams they should have beaten soundly. Wisconsin is 1-1, losing a close season opener against Penn St. but handling their business last weekend. This is a neutral site game being played in Chicago, and I’m a bit surprised that Wisconsin is favored. This will set the tone for both teams for the remainder of the season, so the question is who will have the positive momentum going forward. I’m not sure who will actually come out on top, but I smell a close game…closer than five points anyway. Zach, on the other hand, believes Notre Dame is overrated. He is interested in watching grad transfer quarterback Jack Coan lead the Irish against his former team, but doesn’t think it will be enough. 

My Pick: Notre Dame

Z’s Pick: Wisconsin 

Texas A&M (-6) vs. Arkansas

Most “experts” expected the Aggies to do well in Jimbo Fisher’s fourth year at the helm, and thus far they are 3-0. Meanwhile, the 3-0 Razorbacks have kind of snuck up on people, easily upending the competition, including a 19 point win over the Texas Longhorns. This is another neutral site game at the Palace in Dallas and brings back memories of the good ol’ days when the Big 8 was a thing. I think it will be another fun game to watch, but A&M is just too deep & talented so I’m picking them to win by atleast a touchdown. Zach thinks Arkansas is the real deal and is predicting the upset. 

My Pick: Texas A&M

Z’s Pick: Arkansas 

Colorado at Arizona State (-14.5)

My man Herm Edwards has the Sun Devils looking decent at 2-1, but they lost a tough one a week ago to BYU. Conversely, the Buffaloes are 1-2, having played well but not well enough against A&M then getting pummeled by Minnesota. The points concern me just a little. Two TDs+ seems high. I feel like Arizona St. will win comfortably, but it’ll be more like a 10-12 point victory. Zach is concerned that the home team is somewhat inconsistent and believes it will be a close game.

My Pick: Colorado 

Z’s Pick: Colorado 

Miami at Las Vegas (-5)

Those damn Raiders!! They beat our Steelers last week and I’m not happy about it. I can be petty just like any other human being, so there’s part of me that wants to pick Miami out of spite. However, the 1-1 Dolphins got obliterated 35-0 by the Buffalo Bills on Sunday and QB Tua Tagovailoa injured his ribs in the process, meaning backup Jacoby Brissett will be under center this weekend. Conversely, 2-0 Vegas is firing on all cylinders and they have the home field. If the visitors had a healthy starting quarterback I might be tempted to go with the upset, but they don’t so I won’t. Zach is predicting an easy win for Vegas. 

My Pick: Las Vegas

Z’s Pick: Las Vegas 

Philadelphia at Dallas (-4)

It’s still a fun rivalry even if both teams aren’t exactly at the top of their game. Philly is 1-1 and the jury is still out on QB Jalen Hurts. I don’t think Joe Flacco or Gardner Minshew are legit threats to seize the job, but never say never in the NFL. On the flip side of that is Cowboys’ signal caller Dak Prescott, who has looked fantastic returning from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. The issue in Dallas is RB Ezekiel Elliott, who has rushed for just over 100 yards and one touchdown thru two games, driving fantasy owners everywhere bonkers. They absolutely have to get Zeke going if they’re going to compete for a division title. This is the Monday night game, and despite the home field I don’t have much faith in Dallas. I smell an upset. Zach respects the Eagles’ toughness, but feels like the combination of the home field, a solid defense, and a better QB in Prescott makes the difference for the Cowboys. 

My Pick: Philadelphia 

Z’s Pick: Dallas

2021 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

So…it took football to pull me out of the abyss. Y’all may have noticed that I haven’t posted anything here for about six months. There are reasons for that, but this isn’t the time for such a therapy session.

There’s a lot to unpack when it comes to college football. I am excited about its return, and so glad there will be crowded stadiums once again this season. Watching games just wasn’t the same a year ago, and it didn’t help that one never knew how things might be affected week to week by The Sickness. The chaos this offseason though hasn’t been virus related. There is talk of expanding the playoff. That’s not surprising, but I’m not a fan of a 16 team playoff…I like the idea of 6, or 8 at most. Players are also legally able to get paid now. I don’t know all the ins & outs so I’ll tread lightly and just say it is what it is and I’m not all that enthused about it. Conference realignment is back too, as Texas & Oklahoma are leaving the Big 12 in a few years and heading the SEC. More dominoes will fall, and the landscape will change dramatically in the near future.

Having said all that, I am thrilled that football and the relative normalcy of enjoying it as a fan has come back into our lives. I’m happy to do this preseason poll, the upcoming NFL Preview, and weekly picks with my nephew. And I’m damn sure blessed to have this little corner of the info superhighway.

25 Liberty

Last Season: 10-1

Key Games:   9/24@ Syracuse, 11/6@ Ole Miss, 11/20 vs. Lousiana, 11/27 vs. Army

In just their second full season in the FBS division the Flames were 10-1, with road victories over Syracuse & Virginia Tech. Can they have similar success this year?? Maybe. They face the Orange again, then finish the regular season by traveling to Ole Miss then hosting Louisiana & Army. Liberty will need to win 10 games again to sneak into the rankings, but I think that’s doable if they split those four games.

24 West Virginia

Last Season:     6-4

Key Games:     9/18 vs. Virginia Tech, 9/25@ Oklahoma, 10/30 vs. Iowa St., 11/20 vs. Texas

Neal Brown enters his third season as the Mountaineers’ head coach, and it’s time to prove to fans that we really can “trust the climb”. As a lifelong resident of the Mountain State I’m looking for nine wins. As much as we’d love to be in the playoff conversation the truth is that most WVU fans are smart enough to not expect that on a regular basis, but winning 8 or 9 games and playing in a top tier bowl should never be out of reach. If Brown can pull off a couple of upsets and land in the rankings at the end we’ll be more inclined to give him our trust.

23 North Carolina

Last Season:     8-4

Key Games:  10/9 vs. Florida St., 10/16 vs. Miami (FL), 10/30@ Notre Dame

Most polls have the Tar Heels ranked much higher, but I’m just not buying it. I like head coach Mack Brown and I’m glad he’s re-energized his career after things fizzled out at Texas, but the ACC is sneaky tough. No one knows what to expect from Florida St. these days, but I’ll always consider that a tough game. UNC has the Hurricanes of Miami at home, which should be a great game, but I don’t believe they’ll beat the Irish in South Bend. This feels like another 8-ish win season. Not bad…but not elite.

22 Iowa

Last Season:     6-2

Key Games:    9/11@ Iowa St., 10/9 vs. Penn St., 10/30@ Wisconsin

I’m a big fan of good old fashioned smashmouth football, and we can usually count on Big Ten teams like the Hawkeyes to have a huge offensive line that makes that even more fun. While I do not believe that Iowa is a threat to win the conference I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pull off an upset or two and win 8 or 9 games.

21 USC

Last Season:     5-1

Key Games:     10/9 vs. Utah, 11/6@ Arizona St., 11/27 vs. BYU

Southern Cal has been decent the past couple of years, but let’s face it…that’s not good enough for one of the premier programs in college football. Clay Helton enters his sixth season as the Trojans’ head coach, and I have to believe his seat might be getting a bit warm. The October game against Utah could make or break the season.

20 Coastal Carolina

Last Season:     11-1

Key Games:     9/10 vs. Kansas, 10/20@ Appalachian St.

A chanticleer, in case you’re curious, is a rooster. Why the powers-that-be have not booked a Coastal vs. South Carolina game is beyond me…I’ll let y’all figure out why that would be marketing nirvana. At any rate, Coastal was an overtime loss in the Cure Bowl against Liberty from going undefeated last season, and I don’t expect much of a dropoff. The Kansas Jayhawks are rarely very good in football, but a victory over a Big 12 team would be impressive for Coastal. If you’d have told me a few years ago that a Coastal Carolina/Appalachian State game would be intriguing I would not have believed it, but I have a feeling my eyes will be glued to the TV on October 20.

19 Miami (FL)

Last Season:    8-3

Key Games:     9/4 vs. Alabama, 9/18 vs. Michigan St., 10/16@ North Carolina

Much like USC the ‘Canes usually have higher goals than 8/9 wins and a Top 25 finish, but Rome wasn’t built in a day, and after several lean years Miami is back to atleast being pretty good. Can they compete for an ACC title?? Ehhh…maybe, although I’d consider it a long shot. As much as I would love to see an upset of Alabama in the season opener I do not think that’ll happen, but wins over Michigan State & UNC are not out of the question.

18 Army

Last Season:     9-3

Key Games:     10/16@ Wisconsin, 11/27@ Liberty

I’ve always been a big fan of the service academies’ football games for a variety of reasons, and it has been fun to watch the Black Knights’ success, as they’ve won 9+ games three out of the past four years (I’m not sure what happened in 2019). Do I think they’ll go into Madison and upset the Badgers?? No. Do I think they can go into enemy territory and beat Liberty?? Absolutely. Another nine win season should assure an appearance in the final rankings, and I believe that’s exactly what we’ll see.

17 Arizona State

Last Season:     2-2

Key Games:     9/18@ BYU, 10/16@ Utah, 11/6 vs. USC, 11/13@ Washington

I have expressed my admiration for head coach Herm Edwards in the past. How can anyone not like Herm?? This will be his fourth year at the helm in Tempe, and they had winning records in the first two before last season’s weirdness. Can they kick it up a notch to the next level?? The Pac 12 is kind of a mystery. On paper the conference looks loaded, but inevitably someone is going to have a worse season than expected. If the Sun Devils lose all four of they key games noted above then…surprise…they are that team and the joke is on me, which is entirely possible. However, I’m betting on my man Herm to not let me down.

16 LSU

Last Season:     5-5

Key Games:   10/2 vs. Auburn, 10/16 vs. Florida, 11/6@ Alabama, 11/27 vs. Texas A&M

Which Bayou Bengals’ team will we see this year?? Will it be the one that won 10+ games six times in ten years and captured national championships in 2017 & 2019, or the one that finished .500 last season?? Since 2020 was such a strange year on multiple levels I’ll give LSU the benefit of the doubt and assume their season was an anomaly. However, I still don’t foresee them being in the conference title hunt or the playoff discussion. They will need to atleast split the key games noted to have a chance at a solid Top 25 finish.

15 Penn State

Last Season:    4-5

Key Games:     9/4@ Wisconsin, 9/18 vs. Auburn, 10/9@ Iowa, 10/30@ Ohio St.

Not only is the Big Ten stacked, but the Nittany Lions are coming off a losing season, so this prediction makes me a bit nervous. Before last year (which I won’t really take all that seriously given the circumstances) Penn St. had won 11 games in three out of the previous four seasons (they won nine in 2018), so there’s no reason to believe they’ll fall off a cliff. I don’t think they will beat Ohio St. at The Horseshoe, but if they can defeat Auburn at home then split road games at Wisconsin & Iowa they could be looking at a solid Top 25 finish.

14 Wisconsin

Last Season:     4-3

Key Games:     9/4 vs. Penn St., 9/25 vs. Notre Dame, 10/30 vs. Iowa

It’s not so much about including Wisconsin as much as the fact that I simply don’t see a way to leave them out. Other Big Ten teams will get more TV coverage and love from the talking heads, but the Badgers will still line up, ram the ball down opponents’ throats, and grind out ugly wins. That’s what they do, and at some point in late November folks will be looking at the polls and saying “Wisconsin?? Where’d they come from??”.

13 Texas

Last Season:     7-3

Key Games:     10/9 vs. Oklahoma, 11/6@ Iowa St.

The Longhorns still play in the Big 12 and they better enjoy it while they can because I believe they will be very average in the SEC. The winner of the Texas/Iowa St. game in early November will likely meet Oklahoma in the conference title game, although a Texas victory in the Red River Shootout could throw a monkey wrench into that scenario.

12 Cincinnati

Last Season:     9-1

Key Games:     9/18@ Indiana, 10/2@ Notre Dame

I get it, but then again I don’t. A year ago the Bearcats won nine games and finished as a Top 10 team. But that season included victories over Army, SMU, Tulsa, & Central Florida being considered the most impressive. A loss to Georgia in the Peach Bowl was close, but still a loss. So armed with that information I have to believe that a similar season, including another AAC title, could land Cincy back in the same general vicinity. Indiana doesn’t appear in this poll because I think the Big Ten is just too tough and they won’t repeat the same level of success they enjoyed last season, but it’s an important game for Cincinnati. I do not believe a win over Notre Dame is possible, but if the road team can keep it respectably close they could actually gain respect.

11 Texas A&M

Last Season:     9-1

Key Games:     10/9 vs. Alabama, 11/27@ LSU

I will continue to opine that moving from the Big 12 to the SEC was an error in judgment for the Aggies, atleast from a football perspective. God knows they’re enjoying the financial windfall. However, I have also stated that I think head coach Jimbo Fisher (who graduated from the same high school as me, just a few years earlier) is building something in College Station. Will they contend for an SEC title with so many elite teams standing in their way?? I wouldn’t hold my breath for that, but I don’t think an upset or two and a 10 win season is out of reach.

10 Iowa State

Last Season:     9-3

Key Games:     9/11 vs. Iowa, 11/6 vs. Texas, 11/20@ Oklahoma

The Cyclones have been a dangerous team for awhile, and with QB Brock Purdy entering his senior season now seems like a great time to fulfill all that potential. An out of conference game against in state foe Iowa looks intriguing, especially since it’s in Ames, and I think they’ll beat Texas.

9 BYU

Last Season:     11-1

Key Games:     9/11 vs. Utah, 9/18 vs. Arizona St., 10/9 vs. Boise St., 10/16@ Baylor

The Cougars intrigue me. When the aforementioned conference realignment dominoes begin to fall I think BYU will end up with a new home. Pac 12?? Big 12?? Who knows?? Until then part of the fun of them being independent is the schedule, which quite literally all over the map. I am particularly fascinated by the October contest against Boise, who I chose to leave out of this poll though I’m sure they’ll be as competitive as usual. Ranking BYU this high has been a mistake before, but ignoring them has been equally as wrong. They are quite the football enigma, and I dig that.

8 Florida

Last Season:     8-4

Key Games:    9/18 vs. Alabama, 10/16@ LSU, 10/30 vs. Georgia

I’m sure football fans in the deep south enjoy the hell out of the SEC’s dominance, but for the rest of us it has become exhausting. That being said, when doing a poll like this one must decide which teams to include and which ones to leave out, and the fact is I cannot avoid ranking less than five deserving programs. The Gators host ‘Bama but have to go to Death Valley to face LSU. A game against Georgia comes after a bye week which could be advantageous. I expect Florida to lose two of those three games, but they should win everything else with relative ease.

7 Clemson

Last Season:     10-2

Key Games:     9/4 vs. Georgia

Could it be that the ACC is getting better just as the Tigers aren’t quite as elite as they have been?? A loss to the likes of UNC or Miami in the conference title game might be enough to cost them a playoff spot. Am I brave enough to lay money down on that prospect?? Of course not. But it’s a fun scenario to ponder.

6 Alabama

Last Season:     13-0

Key Games:    9/18@ Florida, 10/9@ Texas A&M, 11/6 vs. LSU

I know it’s wrong, but I cannot help myself. With all due respect to Nick Saban & The Tide I will once again opine that I’m simply tired of them. Their dynasty has become tedious. It is likely that this prediction is way off base, that ‘Bama will inevitably find themselves in the playoff even if they lose the SEC title game. The truth is that television (specifically ESPN) controls the college football narrative, and Alabama is good for business. But this is my poll, so indulge me in a little wish fulfillment in which the almighty defending champs stumble once or twice and finish on the outside looking in.

5 Oklahoma

Last Season:     9-2

Key Games:     10/9 vs. Texas, 11/20 vs. Iowa St.

A decade from now I believe the Sooners will regret jumping from the Big 12 to the SEC, but that hasn’t occurred quite yet. For now their path to the playoff doesn’t seem all that tough outside of implicit disrespect of the Big 12, and that may bite them in the ass, especially if Notre Dame takes a playoff spot. The schedule lines up in their favor, with out of conference games they should win easily and Iowa State coming to Norman. The Red River Shootout is, as usual, a neutral site game in Dallas.

4 Notre Dame

Last Season:     10-2

Key Games:     9/25 vs. Wisconsin, 10/23 vs. USC, 10/30 vs. North Carolina

The Irish will always be in the playoff conversation as long as the team is winning games. I don’t know how conference realignment will affect them, but for now the status quo tilts in their favor. All of their key games are in South Bend, and we’ll know by the time November rolls around if they are serious championship contenders.

3 Oregon

Last Season:     4-3

Key Games:     9/11@ Ohio St., 11/20@ Utah

The Pac 12 really messed up last year by preemptively cancelling their season then reconsidering and ultimately having an abbreviated season. I assume there are too many indoctrinated Californians at the top of the conference management food chain. Anyway, the Ducks seem to be headed in the right direction after a rough go of it in 2016 & 2017. This will be the fourth year under head coach Mario Cristobal, and I foresee good things ahead, even assuming a season opening loss in Columbus.

2 Georgia

Last Season:     8-2

Key Games:     9/4 vs. Clemson, 10/30 vs. Florida

Can the Bulldogs upset the Crimson Tide and roll into the playoff themselves?? It won’t be easy. The SEC is stacked and that season opener against Clemson is brutal. That’s a neutral site game in Charlotte, and the winner certainly has a leg up on the competition. Having said that, I think it is entirely plausible that Georgia could lose that game, win every game afterward, defeat Alabama in the SEC title game, and still end up in the playoff.

1 Ohio State

Last Season:     7-1

Key Games:     9/11 vs. Oregon, 10/30 vs. Penn St., 11/27@ Michigan

Let me be clear…I didn’t think the Buckeyes should have been anywhere near the playoff last season. They only played six regular season games. Regardless of the circumstances I believe an eight game minimum threshold should have been in place to get into the Final Four. That did not happen, and I can’t blame them for taking full advantage. Every indication seems to point to another wildly successful campaign, as I don’t see any other Big Ten team capable of stopping them, unless Michigan shocks the world.





2014 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

5-0 baby!! I’m almost positive I’ve never done that before.


I have to be honest. I was really really down last weekend. My WV Mountaineers snatched defeat from the jaws of victory due to the poor decision making of their drunken head coach, and my undefeated Marshall Thundering Herd were being totally disrespected by the talking heads. I was so bummed after the WVU loss that I just turned my TV off and went to sleep at 7:30pm. The last time I went to bed that early I was in trouble with my parents. I had pretty much made up my mind to break up with sports altogether. After church Sunday I didn’t watch a minute of the NFL on Redzone, and I didn’t even watch my beloved Steelers defeat the hated Ravens on Sunday Night Football. I was prepared to end these picks as well. You see, I am a firm believer in a kind of male menstrual cycle, and as I emailed my friend The Owl Sunday evening, I was “in a very dark place” and felt “as if I could mow thru a crowded room with a machete and laugh like a giddy child.” Thankfully when the gloom overtakes me I know that if I just disengage for a day or two factory settings will be restored and I regain my emotional equilibrium. Not that I’d ever actually hurt anyone anyway. I am far too delicate for prison. I am much more likely, to paraphrase a line from the 2004 rom-com Win a Date with Tad Hamilton!, to tear someone to pieces with vicious rhetoric.


At any rate, I couldn’t abandon these picks, especially after my brilliant prognosticatory ability led me to a perfect record. I can’t let down my nephew Zach or the citizens of The Manoverse. While I was going 5-0 Zach was going 3-2, so for the season I am 30-25 and he is 28-27. There are several great college games this week that…theoretically…should add clarity to this 4 team playoff deal. Or maybe it’ll just become a bigger mess than it already is. For God’s sake I am actually starting to miss the BCS.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baylor at Oklahoma (-5.5)
oklahomaThe Big 12 doesn’t have a title game (or 12 teams), but the regular season conference champion might have a decent shot at being one of thebaylor chosen four playoff teams. The Sooners are probably on the outside looking in at a three team race between TCU, Baylor, & Kansas St., but they can certainly play the role of spoiler. This is a must win for the Bears and I am a little surprised that they aren’t favored even though they are the visiting team. Oklahoma’s two losses…to the aforementioned TCU & Kansas St…were by a total of 5 points. I’d be surprised if this game is much different, but I’ll roll the dice. Zach doesn’t think Oklahoma has a chance and predicts the game will be over by halftime with Baylor winning by atleast 4 TDs.

My Pick = Oklahoma
Z’s Pick = Baylor

*

Notre Dame at Arizona St. (-2.5)
Arizona_State_logo_blanketThe Sun Devils would need a lot of things to go right for them to make the playoff, but an appearance in the Pac 12 title game certainly NotreDameFightingIrishseems feasible. Meanwhile, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see the Irish jump back into the national championship picture if their only loss is to an overrated Florida St. team that they clearly outplayed on a call that was dubious to say the least. Unfortunately for Notre Dame I think they receive the death blow in this game and will be eliminated from playoff contention. Zach notes that Notre Dame is “good at beating small conference schools”, which I think may be a big ol’ flip of the bird to the Pac 12.

My Pick = Arizona St.
Z’s Pick = Notre Dame

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Kansas St. at TCU (-5.5)
kansas-state-dmThis essentially is a de facto Big 12 championship contest. The winner would almost certainly leap into atleast being on the cusp of the TCU_Horned_Frogsplayoff. I have watched both teams play this season, and in my opinion it all comes down to coaching. Kansas St.’s Bill Snyder won’t be outcoached the way that West Virginia’s head lush was last weekend. Zach believes that Horned Frogs’ QB Trevone Boykin will win the game with his legs.

My Pick = Kansas St.
Z’s Pick = TCU

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Ohio St. at Michigan St. (-3.5)
Ohio_State_BuckeyesThe Buckeyes are too far down on the totem pole to snag a playoff spot, but they can be spoilers while also securing a spot in the Big Ten Michigan_State_Spartans(which has 12 teams) title game. Meanwhile, the Spartans are in a dog fight for one of those four playoff spots. A win in this game would certainly help, while a loss would likely be the knockout punch. This is one upset that no one seems to be predicting, so I suppose I will be a trailblazer. Zach has a robust disdain for Ohio St. (no one knows why) and is going with Michigan St. all the way.

My Pick = Ohio St.
Z’s Pick = Michigan St.

*

Alabama (-6.5) at LSU
Can the Bayou Bengals do it again?? A couple of weeks ago Zach & I correctly predicted the LSU upset of then #3 Ole Miss. LSU is coming into this game well lsu_logorested after a bye week. The Tide are also coming off a bye, so neither team has the advantage there. ‘Bama just hasn’t seemed to be firing on all cylinders this season yet they are a Top 5 team as usual and have won the last three meetings in this series rather handily. I think the momentum shifts back to the underdogs in 2014 and the game will be decided…one way or another…by 3 points or less. Zach concurs.

My Pick = LSU
Z’s Pick = LSU