Where I will show love for the Steelers, Pirates, Thundering Herd, & Mountaineers and utter contempt for the Cowboys, Yankees, Jeff Gordon, & Notre Dame.
Zach & I were both 6-5 in last weekend’s supersized round of action, but now we settle into our normal routine. I feel like it’s a bit too early in both the college & NFL seasons to draw any concrete conclusions, but I’ve seen enough to know it’ll be a be a fun ride with a few surprises, with an emphasis on the few. Hell, we didn’t even get thru September before more conference realignment news, which is exactly the kind of predictable surprise we should expect at this point. At any rate, Zach retains the season lead, but I’m a patient man and won’t chase wins.
My Season: 9-9
Zach’s Season: 11-7
Alabama (-15.5) at Wisconsin
I still don’t view ‘Bama as a serious title contender, but the talking heads are thus far treating them as if nothing has changed and the greatest college football coach of all time didn’t walk into the sunset. They’re 2-0, having outscored their opponents 105-16, so the results have been impressive. The Badgers are also 2-0, although their output has been more prosaic. It’s a Noon kickoff from Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, and the home crowd will be fired up. I do not believe Wisky will win the game outright, but I think it’ll be slightly more competitive than the folks in Vegas are anticipating. Zach concurs, pointing out Alabama’s tendency to start slow & finish strong, and Wisconsin’s tradition of controlling the line of scrimmage with their big uglies.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Zach’s Pick: Wisconsin
Washington State at Washington (-4.5)
It’s a little early in the season for a rivalry game, but conference realignment simply bends tradition over a chair and violates it. Anyway, The Apple Cup has been contested since 1900, and I suppose we should appreciate its continuation no matter where it falls on the calendar. The Huskies have won 9 of the last 10 meetings. Both teams have dispatched their first two opponents with ease, but someone has to lose now, and I think it’ll be the Cougars by a touchdown. Conversely, Zach opines that the Huskies lost alot of talent from last season’s championship runner-up squad. He foresees a shootout and thinks the underdogs can score the upset.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington St.
Arizona at Kansas State (-7)
2-0 K-St. had all they could handle against Tulane last weekend, while 2-0 Arizona will now get their first taste of Big 12 action. This is a Friday night game on Fox, and one thing is certain…the Wildcats will win. I expect these teams to be in the hunt for the conference title until the end, so a victory this week could be huge. It should be a tough battle, but I believe the home favorites get the job done. Zach really likes Arizona sophomore QB Noah Fifita, who was the Pac 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year a season ago. He likes the visitors in a close game.
My Pick: Kansas St.
Zach’s Pick: Arizona
Chicago at Houston (-6.5)
The Hype Machine is all in on QB Caleb Williams, and the Bears did win their season opener over Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Texans also won their first game, but it was a nail biter. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, and I think Texans quarterback CJ Stroud, who received so much love from the talking heads last year during his rookie season, needs to remind everyone what he’s capable of doing. That being said, Houston needs to utilize ball control and keep Chicago’s defense on the field with sustained drives that eat the clock. Zach likes Williams’ future, but right now the favorites are just a better team.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Houston
Atlanta at Philadelphia (-6)
How will traveling to & from Brazil last weekend affect the Eagles?? I don’t get out much, so perhaps it’s nothing to be concerned about…but I can’t shake the idea that maybe it is. Unlike Philly, the Falcons lost their season opener. Their defense didn’t give up a touchdown to our Steelers, yet were still defeated by six field goals & their own inability to score in the second half. Atlanta paid QB Kirk Cousins $180 million (over the course of four years) this offseason, but the rumblings for rookie signal caller & first round pick Michael Penix have already begun. That chatter will only become louder if the offense sputters again Monday night. Cousins can throw water on the fire by leading his team to victory, which would shock nearly everyone. Don’t be surprised if this is a real dandy…a low scoring defensive tug-o’-war decided deep into the 4th quarter. I don’t know who comes out on top, but I predict it’ll be won by a field goal. Conversely, Zach doesn’t foresee any issues with the home team winning easily.
With the NFL commencing this weekend we’ll do one more round of bonus picks (for now) then settle into our normal routine. Zach got the jump on me last weekend, so I’ve got some catching up to do. Now you know why we don’t typically pick West Virginia games, and as far as USC goes, maybe Caleb Williams was actually holding them back. At any rate, we move forward with gleeful anticipation for the Sunday return of RedZone, and once again have five straight days of gridiron action beginning on Thursday night.
Sam’s Season: 3-4
Zach’s Season: 5-2
Iowa State at Iowa (-3)
With all of the inane conference realignment it’s crazy that these two schools still play in different ones. Anyway, the Cyclones opened with a solid win over North Dakota, while the Hawkeyes obliterated Illinois St. The visitors will need to open up the playbook a little more because they won’t win a slugfest in the trenches, and I think they’ll do just that. Zach thinks special teams & field position will be the difference, with the favorites winning at home.
My Pick: Iowa St.
Zach’s Pick: Iowa
Baylor at Utah (-15.5)
The Utes were my pre-season #1, not because I believe they are the best team in the country right now, but because I think they have a chance to survive the carnage of a long season. A season opening victory over Southern Utah doesn’t prove much, but doesn’t dissuade me from my assessment either. Meanwhile, the Bears also beat up some random team no one has heard of last weekend, but have certainly been…uneven…in recent years. Will this be their third straight losing season, or can they win 10+ games as they’ve done five times since 2013?? I don’t know the answer, but I think they’ll go down in flames this weekend. Zach doesn’t doubt that Utah will emerge victorious, but believes they won’t win by more than two touchdowns.
My Pick: Utah
Zach’s Pick: Baylor
Tennessee (-7.5) vs. NC State
The Vols came out strong, beating the snot out of Chattanooga. The Wolfpack didn’t get it going against Western Carolina until the 4th quarter before emerging with a solid win. This is a neutral site game in Charlotte, and I expect a fun contest. However, at the end of the day Tennessee probably scores a double digit victory. Zach thinks it’ll be alot closer and believes NC St. has the offense to maybe…possibly…perhaps…win the game.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: NC State
Colorado at Nebraska (-7.5)
Wow…let’s hop in the ol’ DeLorean time machine and enjoy a classic Big 8 battle circa the mid-1980s. We all know that the Buffs receive alot of love from the talking heads, but we also understand why. Credit where it is due, they scratched & clawed out a win against very talented 1-AA/FCS competition last weekend, but now the real fun begins. Meanwhile, after years of wandering in the Desert of Mediocrity some folks think the Cornhuskers are ready to reclaim their spot at the big table alongside other historic football programs. I don’t think we can glean much from a season opening beatdown of UTEP, but it’s a good start. It seems like Colorado has a target on their back for various reasons, and the Big 12 will probably eat them alive. Can they remain unscathed out of conference though?? I don’t believe so. Zach has more faith in Coach Prime than I do and foresees QB Shedeur Sanders balling out on his way to leading the team to a big win.
My Pick: Nebraska
Zach’s Pick: Colorado
Boise State at Oregon (-18.5)
Boise won a high scoring affair over Georgia Southern last weekend, but the step up in competition is exponential now. Some people have very high hopes for the Ducks, who got things started right with a fairly pedestrian victory over Idaho. The points concern me, given the favorites’ unimpressive output in their first game, but I think they’ll kick it up a notch and win by three TDs. Zach has high hopes for Oregon and thinks they’ll take care of business at home.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
Texas (-6.5) at Michigan
Can the defending national champions duplicate their success from a season ago?? Can the Longhorns maintain the upward trajectory they’ve been on the last couple of years?? The oddsmakers seem to have strong opinions since they’ve made Michigan underdogs in The Big House. On paper the favorites are deeper, more talented, and have the stability of a coaching staff that’s been at the helm for a few years, but perhaps we are underestimating the testicular fortitude of the Maize & Blue. I don’t know who’ll win the game, but I think it will be decided by a field goal. Zach has serious concerns about Michigan’s offense but is hopeful their defense can be dominant. However, he regretfully foresees the favorites easily winning this contest.
My Pick: Michigan
Zach’s Pick: Texas
Baltimore at Kansas City (-3)
It’s an AFC Title rematch, and could be an AFC Title preview. The NFL kicks off Thursday night on NBC, and we will very quickly gather a vibe about expectations. Defense is the deciding factor. We obviously anticipate a high level of playmaking from two elite quarterbacks, so the defense that can negatively impact that will win the game. I will go against the grain and predict a low scoring battle of field position & special teams. Justin Tucker vs. Harrison Butker. Something like 16-9, with the home team scratching out a hard fought victory. Zach opines that KC is known to start a season sluggishly before heating things up in the playoffs. He likes Baltimore to ride their new horse Derrick Henry to victory.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Baltimore
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia (-2.5)
We’re getting a Friday night game too, from Brazil. It’s on Peacock, which is only about $5/month, so I highly recommend investing in it, especially if you are a fan of WWE and/or The Office. Anyway, at the end of last season these were two teams headed in opposite directions. The Packers won four straight games before being defeated in the second round of the playoffs, while Philly lost five out of their final six in the regular season, barely sneaking into the playoffs before being immediately put out of their misery by Tampa Bay. I don’t believe the Eagles are actually that bad and probably fixed most of their issues in the offseason, but Green Bay also improved and signed QB Jordan Love to a hefty contract extension. I foresee some big plays, but ultimately believe the game will be won on the ground & in the trenches, with the underdogs scoring a slight upset. Zach thinks the Eagles are a more proven contender and needs to see more before he can believe in the Packers.
My Pick: Green Bay
Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia
Jacksonville at Miami (-3)
I feel like the NFL oddsmakers are still in offseason mode, with most of the point spreads being rather predictable. I predicted big things for the Jags coming into this year. QB Trevor Lawrence enters his fourth season at only 24 years old, and the defense is stout. The Dolphins have the home field after a season that saw them lose a wildcard game for the second consecutive year. I believe we’ll see Miami decline ever so slightly this season, while Jacksonville has the ability to surprise alot of people. That starts now. Conversely, Zach thinks the home team is well coached and will win a close battle.
My Pick: Jacksonville
Zach’s Pick: Miami
LA Rams at Detroit (-3.5)
The Lions were up 17 points at halftime of the NFC Title game before blowing it and watching the Super Bowl on television. The Rams fell to these Lions by just one point on Wildcard Weekend. This is the Sunday night game on NBC so the nation will be watching. I think Detroit’s defense is just a little better, and they’ll force a turnover or two to come out on top. Zach thinks the Lions are once again legit Super Bowl contenders.
My Pick: Detroit
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
NY Jets at San Francisco (-3.5)
It’s the first Monday night game of the season, so of course the folks at ESPN want Aaron Rodgers involved. After the shortest season of his two decade career Rodgers seems to have recovered from tearing his Achilles on the fourth play of the opening game a year ago. The question becomes what else can the Jets offer?? Conversely, the Niners lost the Super Bowl in overtime and have a plethora of talent surrounding a second year QB who was the NFL Draft’s Mr. Irrelevant. I believe the Jets will make some noise this year, provided their quarterback’s health holds up, but once again I think they’ll get off on the wrong foot (pun very much intended). Zach concurs.
The decision was made to skip college football’s “Week Zero” since there was only one game that could be considered even remotely interesting, and in the interest of full disclosure I’ll admit I likely would’ve made the wrong pick, so we’re already off to a good start with wise judgment. At any rate, we are happy to be back for another delightful season of making choices that have absolutely no consequences other than stubborn pride. A season ago I secured the overall victory with a 74-61 record, while Zach was 61-74. I’ve lost track of how long we’ve been doing this and am far too lethargic to do research, but I know that it’s been long enough that these picks have become a touchstone that marks the transition from summer, which I have loved my entire life, to autumn, a season I have grown to appreciate more with maturity. A tip o’ the cap to Jerry Lewis and his eponymous Labor Day Telethon, which slipped into the past more than a decade ago, and bygone school days, which for me have been over for much longer. Even the transitions transition.
North Carolina (-1) at Minnesota
The Tar Heels finished last year with a bowl game loss to my WV Mountaineers and an 8-5 record. The Gophers also lost their bowl game and finished 6-7, which says alot about bowl games. These two teams actually met during the regular season last September, with Carolina scoring a 17 point win. However, QB Drake Maye has moved on to the NFL and they also have an entirely new offensive line. This is a Thursday night game on Fox, but I’m not sure casual fans will appreciate it. We’re probably looking at a low scoring defensive struggle, with field position & time of possession being key stats. Definitely take the under, and I believe the home field helps Minnesota eek out a close victory. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Minnesota
Zach’s Pick: Minnesota
Florida Atlantic at Michigan State (-13.5)
How can anyone not root for a team nicknamed the Owls?? FAU is coming off of a miserable 4-8 season, so head coach Tom Herman, who never had losing records at Houston or Texas, won’t be satisfied with the status quo. Meanwhile, the Spartans begin anew with head coach Jonathan Smith, who moves east after six years at Oregon St. Three of the past four seasons under former coach Mel Tucker were abysmal, so they too are looking for a big turnaround. It’s a 7pm Friday kickoff on the Big Ten Network, which means no one will be watching, although ESPN may show a highlight or two, or atleast mention the score on SportsCenter. I really want to pick an outright upset, but just can’t go that far. However, I do think the points are a bit much and the visitors will keep it close. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Florida Atlantic
Zach’s Pick: Florida Atlantic
Miami (Fla.) (-2.5) at Florida
The Hurricanes have been getting some preseason love, but let’s be real. Vinny Testaverde isn’t walking thru that door. Neither is Michael Irvin. Ditto for Warren Sapp, Edgerrin James, & Ray Lewis. These are not the legendary ‘Canes from “The U” that dominated college football a few decades ago. Having said that, they can certainly be a dominant force amongst the mediocrity of the ACC. Conversely, the Gators are swimming upstream in a loaded SEC. They lost five straight games to end last season, and head coach Billy Napier’s job could be in jeopardy in just his third year in Gainesville. The Swamp has traditionally been a formidable home field, and I still believe that holds true. Miami will probably go on to have a better season while Florida struggles against conference foes, but I smell an upset to get things started. Zach believes Miami could put themselves in position to snag a playoff berth and doesn’t think Florida poses much of a challenge.
My Pick: Florida
Zach’s Pick: Miami (FL)
Notre Dame at Texas A&M (-3)
The Aggies fired Jimbo Fisher before the end of last season, paying him the largest buyout in college football history. New head coach Mike Elko is a former Aggies defensive coordinator who had a couple of solid winning seasons at Duke. A&M only had one losing season in six years with Fisher at the helm, but 9-4 or 8-5 simply isn’t good enough with so much money involved. We’ll see how the Elko Era plays out. The Fighting Irish are no strangers to change. Head coach Marcus Freeman is 19-7 in two seasons in South Bend, but we all know that ten wins & a Sun Bowl appearance don’t measure up to the lofty standards of a program that has won eleven national titles and has been in the conversation atleast as many times as that. The home field in College Station is amongst the most intimidating in the country, but I just think Notre Dame is a slightly better team. Zach doesn’t foresee a particularly interesting game, but agrees that the Irish will get the job done on the road.
My Pick: Notre Dame
Zach’s Pick: Notre Dame
Penn State (-8.5) at West Virginia
We usually don’t pick WVU games, but I can’t resist this one. After a rocky start in his first few seasons in Morgantown head coach Neal Brown seemingly found the right formula last year, going 9-4, including a postseason beatdown of North Carolina. With Texas & Oklahoma moving on to the SEC a revamped Big 12 could be ripe for the picking, and the timing seems good with the ‘Eers perhaps fielding their best team since 2011. The narrative rarely changes for the Nittany Lions, having won ten games & finishing in the middle of the pack in the Big Ten, which seems to be their ceiling. These two teams opened the season a year ago, with Penn St. winning comfortably at home. Can West Virginia flip the script?? Most people will tell you no…but I am not most people. Despite being a West Virginia native Zach isn’t much of a Mountaineers fan. However, he does acknowledge that they should be pretty good this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball. He isn’t impressed by Penn St. junior QB Drew Allar and believes WVU could pull off a big upset.
My Pick: West Virginia
Zach’s Pick: West Virginia
USC vs. LSU (-4.5)
QB Caleb Williams is now plying his trade in the NFL, but I never quite figured out the hype given the fact that the Trojans were a combined 19-8 the past two seasons. Certainly not terrible, but they weren’t a playoff contender. Will that change this year?? Probably not, especially in their inaugural season in the…*checks notes*…Big Ten. Just finishing in the top half of the conference and achieving bowl eligibility should be the goal. As for the Bayou Bengals, hopes are high that they can build on two straight ten win seasons under third year head coach Brian Kelly. This is a neutral site game in Las Vegas on Sunday evening, which would seem like a delightful way to wrap up the weekend except for the fact that Monday is a holiday and there is one final game that night. I don’t believe this will be a particularly close contest, with LSU winning by double digits. Conversely, Zach has faith in USC coach Lincoln Riley and opines that LSU lost alot of talent from last year’s squad. He believes the underdogs will win a close battle.
My Pick: LSU
Zach’s Pick: USC
Clemson vs. Georgia (-13.5)
Sadly this is not the aforementioned Monday night game. It’s actually a Noon kickoff on Saturday, which says alot about how much juice the Tigers have lost. They haven’t been terrible by any means, but after securing six straight playoff berths from 2015-20 winning nine games & playing in the Gator Bowl feels hollow. Conversely, the Bulldogs haven’t lost two games in a season since 2020 and won back to back national titles in 2021 & ‘22. It’s a neutral site game in Atlanta, and I’ll be shocked if Clemson pulls off the upset. Can Georgia cover the points though?? It makes me a little nervous, but go big or go home, right?? Zach doesn’t think the ‘Dawgs will have any problem and predicts a big win.
With the pre-season drawing to a close this upcoming weekend it’s time to fasten the ol’ chinstrap, buckle down, and prepare for battle. Unlike college football my NFL cynicism seems to have plateaued. With the help of instant replay we finally have a handle on what a catch actually is, and I no longer have the intestinal fortitude to become emotional about silly roughing the passer penalties, players kneeling in protest, or the divisive singing of two national anthems. I know who Fidel Goodell is & understand that we are in the era of big business kowtowing to special interests to improve their social credit score. Follow the money is a rule of life that has never & will never change, and with our nation on the verge of giddily embracing full blown communism the way the NFL conducts business is just a small piece of the impending implosion of the United States. Read your Bible, specifically the Book of Revelation, and you will begin to recognize the reality. In the meantime, I will continue my growing immersion into the hermit lifestyle, part of which entails happily watching “seven hours of commercial free football” each Sunday afternoon on RedZone, as well as games of varying interest on Sunday, Monday, & Thursday nights.
East
NY Jets (7-10) 10-7
Miami Dolphins (11-6) 9-8
Buffalo Bills (11-6) 9-8
New England Patriots (4-13) 2-15
Brady…gone. Belichick…gone. The Patriots are essentially a mediocre cover band, wearing the same uniforms as the (allegedly) most successful franchise of the past quarter century with none of the talent. They may right the ship someday, but not this year. I foresee the Bills dropping off just a bit after losing receiver Stefon Diggs. That leaves the Jets & Dolphins to battle for the division crown. Odds are Aaron Rodgers’ season will last longer than five minutes, which instantly improves his team’s chances. I opined that last year was a pivotal season for Dolphins’ QB Tua Tagovailoa, and his success led to a four year, $200+ million contract extension, so now he has to earn that. Unfortunately for him Rodgers, if he can remain healthy, is motivated by something bigger than money.
West
Kansas City Chiefs (11-6) 15-2
LA Chargers (5-12) 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders (8-9) 9-8
Denver Broncos (8-9) 3-14
The Chiefs had the talking heads buzzing for all the wrong reasons last year, going 4-4 in the second half of the season. Then they made all the doubters look stupid by winning the Super Bowl yet again. Don’t doubt them. The Raiders seem to be treading water, while the Broncos have the most unappealing quarterback room in recent memory unless rookie Bo Nix acclimates to the NFL very quickly. Nix may grow into a very good pro quarterback, but I believe it might take awhile for a great team to be built around him. I won’t go so far as saying that Sean Payton is an overhyped mid coach, but he needs to prove he can win without Drew Brees. New coach Jim Harbaugh, fresh off of winning a National Championship with Michigan, will transform the Chargers into a playoff contender, though they aren’t ready for the Super Bowl yet.
North
Cincinnati Bengals (9-8) 11-6
Baltimore Ravens (13-4) 10-7
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) 9-8
Cleveland Browns (11-6) 7-10
This is always my least favorite division to ponder because I know I’m too emotionally invested. No one is expecting much from my Steelers, but if the QB tag team of Russell Wilson & Justin Fields can atleast be decent and the defense stays healthy I honestly don’t think predictions of doom & gloom are accurate. Conversely, I cannot get onboard with the high expectations & praise for the Browns. I don’t give a damn what anyone says…TJ Watt > Myles Garrett. I believe we’ll see the Bengals rebound from a mediocre season to once again be a serious conference title contender as they were the previous couple of years. The Ravens have been getting all the preseason hype & Super Bowl love after adding wrecking ball RB Derrick Henry, but my vibes are telling me something is amiss or perhaps something will occur during the season to prevent them from fulfilling that potential.
South
Houston Texans (10-7) 11-6
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) 10-7
Indianapolis Colts (9-8) 7-10
Tennessee Titans (6-11) 4-13
The Texans have received all the offseason attention, and rightfully so. After adding WR Stefon Diggs, defensive end Danielle Hunter, and RB Joe Mixon to a squad that won the division & a playoff game a season ago, high expectations are understandable. However, let’s pump the brakes just a bit and not forget the Jags. QB Trevor Lawrence is just hitting his prime, and will now have former Bills receiver Gabe Davis & first round pick Brian Thomas as top targets. I like Jacksonville’s defense too, with Travon Walker & Arik Armstead up front and an underrated secondary. The Colts get QB Anthony Richardson back after he missed most of his rookie season with a shoulder injury. The kid has potential, but don’t get too excited yet…it might take him another year or two, and I’m not sure the defense is good enough to carry their team to many victories. I believe things will get worse for the Titans before they get better. Second year QB Will Levis doesn’t have Derrick Henry to tote the rock & draw the attention of opposing defenses anymore, and his receivers are a mix of has-beens & never weres. Tennessee’s defense will need to come up big, and much like their counterparts in Indy I doubt they’re up to the task.
Okay, so I was wrong. Last year I predicted that Dallas would finish below .500 & head coach Mike McCarthy would be fired before Halloween. Obviously that did not happen, but I believe I have the Cowboys figured out now. They are as good as everyone says they are thru the season, but won’t win a Super Bowl as long as the Jones Family is running the franchise. The underrated story in the division though was Philly, who imploded down the stretch, losing 5 of their final 6 games. I don’t know exactly what happened, but it might be a struggle for them to regain the mojo necessary to be a legit Super Bowl contender. The Giants & Commanders just sort of exist. They’ll win some & lose some, but no one will really notice or care all that much. Washington’s first round pick, QB Jayden Daniels, has the opportunity to be special, but that won’t happen right out of the gate.
West
San Francisco 49ers (12-5) 13-4
LA Rams (10-7) 9-8
Seattle Seahawks (9-8) 9-8
Arizona Cardinals (4-13) 6-11
As a Steelers fan I am all too aware of the offseason drama in ‘Frisco, but I doubt it’ll affect the team that much. Their Top 10 defense got younger & deeper in the offseason, so the offense doesn’t need to be fancy…just control the clock and don’t do anything stupid. That formula may not be sexy, but it is effective. The Rams & Seahawks will battle for a wildcard spot, but I think it’ll take new Seattle coach Mike MacDonald a season or two to get things going. I’m not concerned about QB Geno Smith losing his job to new backup Sam Howell because I think he has potent weapons & a good offensive line, but their defense was one of the worst in the league a season ago and I don’t believe it’ll be that much better in 2024. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray missed half of last season, but the team only improved slightly upon his return. It just feels like they are in one of those cycles that pro sports franchises go thru where everything they do & everyone currently associated with the team is meaningless & forgettable and things won’t improve until there is a total reboot.
North
Detroit Lions (12-5) 10-7
Green Bay Packers (9-8) 10-7
Chicago Bears (7-10) 8-9
Minnesota Vikings (7-10) 5-12
The Lions will win the division again, but it won’t be easy. A year ago I counseled Packers fans to not worry because the powers-that-be will figure things out eventually. In hindsight, considering the injuries & turmoil they had to overcome last season, finishing above .500 was impressive. Now QB Jordan Love has a year of starting experience and a hefty $200+ million contract extension, plus new RB Josh Jacobs to ease the pressure. The Bears are getting alot of preseason attention, mainly due to #1 overall pick & new starting quarterback Caleb Williams. I’m not as sold on Williams as many others, but will reluctantly admit that the team will probably see some improvement with him under center. The Vikings lost QB Kirk Cousins and will replace him with journeyman Sam Darnold after rookie JJ McCarthy suffered a knee injury in training camp. McCarthy has potential and will likely seize the job when healthy next season, but that’s not going to help much right now. Expect some lean years in a tough division for Minnesota.
South
Atlanta Falcons (7-10) 9-8
New Orleans Saints (9-8) 8-9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) 7-10
Carolina Panthers (2-15) 5-12
It’s always a tough grind to win this division, and this year will be no different. The Falcons going from Desmond Ridder & Taylor Heinecke at quarterback to Kirk Cousins is like trading in a ‘75 Pinto for a 2002 Camry. He may not be elite, but it’s still a hell of an upgrade. Will it be enough?? The Saints have been rather mediocre the past few seasons, and I don’t expect that to suddenly change. They won’t be awful, but there’s just no WOW factor in New Orleans right now. I may be underestimating the Bucs, but don’t see what the big deal is about QB Baker Mayfield, and the skill players around him aren’t moving any needles. Their defense won’t save them either. The Panthers, despite having the #1 overall draft pick two years in a row (okay, they traded into that spot in 2023 & out of it in 2024), continue to be one of the league’s worst teams. I do not believe that Bryce Young is the answer at quarterback, and new head coach Dave Canales probably isn’t going to work any miracles.
Folks, I don’t even know where to begin. I seriously contemplated not even doing a pre-season poll this year because, quite frankly, I’m not that excited about college football anymore. Money & politics have stained the sport, and I am simply too old to retain my usual level of plucky enthusiasm. A year ago I stated that “I will not let university suits or TV execs steal my joy”, but now I cannot deny that my fervor for the game has indeed significantly diminished. I can’t keep straight what conference half of these teams are members of anymore, and don’t have much interest in learning. I know that the Power 5 is now the Power 4 because the Pac 12 imploded. Perhaps in the long run that will be helpful in sorting out the playoff, but at the moment I perceive it as more dunking on tradition, whatever scraps of that may remain. Surely not a whole hell of alot. I am not even going to try to explain the new playoff format beyond its expansion from four to twelve teams, which neuters the impact of the regular season beyond its function as a time waster for couch potatoes with empty lives (like me) and a great excuse to get drunk for college students & rednecks in a state of arrested development. At any rate, let’s dive in!!
25 Southern Cal
Last Season: 8-5 (Won the Holiday Bowl)
Key Games: 9/1 vs. LSU, 9/21 @ Michigan, 11/30 vs. Notre Dame
Head coach Lincoln Riley came to USC with much fanfare, but in two seasons with future NFL bust Caleb Williams at QB he has achieved an unimpressive 19-8 record. Moving to the Big Ten won’t make things any easier, but sports media will prop up the Trojans if they can pull off an upset or two.
24 Iowa State
Last Season: 7-6 (Defeated in the Liberty Bowl)
Key Games: 10/5 vs. Baylor, 11/30 vs. Kansas St.
I went to high school with the mother & aunt of Cyclones’ QB Rocco Becht, and his father was a talented tight end for my WV Mountaineers in the late 90’s who had a solid career in the NFL. So are my expectations filtered thru rose colored glasses?? Perhaps, but I think the new Big 12 is intriguing and could provide a few surprises.
23 Tennessee
Last Season: 9-4 (Beat Iowa in the Citrus Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 @ Oklahoma, 11/16 @ Georgia
If you listen to the talking heads they’ll have half of the SEC ranked in the Top Ten, but the truth is that someone will lose a game or two. Word on the street is that sophomore QB Nico Iamaleava is an upgrade over Joe Milton, who is now plying his trade with the New England Patriots. We’ll see.
22 Miami (FL)
Last Season: 7-6 (Lost to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl)
Key Games: 10/14 @ North Carolina, 11/11 @ Florida St., 11/18 vs. Louisville
I don’t believe the ‘Canes will ever again be the dominant force that sat atop the college football world for much of the 1980s & ‘90s, but improving by a couple of games in a mediocre ACC is doable. They’ll need to beat atleast one favored opponent on the road.
21 Arizona
Last Season: 10-3 (Beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl)
Key Games: 9/13 @ Kansas St., 9/28 @ Utah
The Wildcats land in the…*checks notes*…Big 12, and they could have some early success. If you forced me at gunpoint to say something positive about realignment I might point to fresh matchups in which no one really knows what to expect. Arizona vs. BYU. Arizona vs. West Virginia. Arizona vs. UCF. I don’t think they’ll compete for a conference title or playoff berth, but matching last season’s success seems like a reasonable expectation.
20 Virginia Tech
Last Season: 7-6 (Beat Tulane in the Military Bowl)
Key Games: 9/27 @ Miami (FL), 11/9 vs. Clemson
The Hokies haven’t won 9+ games since 2017, and have had three head coaches since Frank Beamer retired in 2015. They improved tremendously in Year 2 under Brent Pry, and it doesn’t feel outlandish to expect further development, especially in a pedestrian ACC. Keep an eye on Clemson’s November visit to Blacksburg. The winner of that game could emerge as a conference title contender.
19 Texas
Last Season: 12-2 (Defeated in the CFP Semis by Washington)
Key Games: 9/7 @ Michigan, 10/2 vs. Oklahoma, 10/19 vs. Georgia
Well ‘Horns fans, you got what you wished for. Now it’s time to back up all the bragging & trash talk on the field against SEC opponents. Not only that, but the non-conference schedule features a visit to Ann Arbor to battle the defending national champions. The talent is unquestionable, but the path is treacherous. A playoff berth seems unlikely, but 9 or 10 wins doesn’t feel out of reach.
18 North Carolina State
Last Season: 9-4 (Lost the Pop Tarts Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 @ Clemson, 11/30 @ North Carolina
I can’t decide if the ACC is a model of parity or simply tedious. I am feeling generous so let’s call it more of the former than the latter. If the Wolfpack wants to equal the success of last season they’ll need to have some great games on the road.
17 Penn State
Last Season: 10-3 (Lost to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl)
Key Games: 10/12 @ USC, 11/2 @ Ohio St.
The Nittany Lions are amongst a plethora of teams that perpetually reside on the second level of college football. They’ll win alot more games than they lose and always field a talented team theoretically capable of beating just about anyone, but never quite reach elite status which would allow them to be perceived as a legit playoff contender. Ten wins and a solid bowl berth seems to be their ceiling.
16 Michigan
Last Season: 15-0 (CFP National Champions)
Key Games: 9/7 vs. Texas, 9/21 vs. USC, 11/2 vs. Oregon, 11/30 @ Ohio St.
I don’t believe that the loss of head coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL means that the defending national champions will crumble & slink away into obscurity, but they are unlikely to be serious title contenders. I suppose they could sneak into the playoff, but even that feels like a bit much to ask. They’ll lose atleast one huge game in The Big House.
15 LSU
Last Season: 10-3 (Beat Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl)
Key Games: 9/1 vs. USC, 11/9 vs. Alabama
I’ll be honest…this one makes me nervous. I never know what to expect from the Bayou Bengals. That being said, head coach Brian Kelly has had two consecutive ten win seasons since arriving in Baton Rouge. Opening against USC in Death Valley might be the most intriguing matchup of the first full weekend of action, and they also host ‘Bama in November. Can they match last season’s success?? We’ll see.
14 Boise State
Last Season: 8-6 (Lost the LA Bowl)
Key Games: 10/25 @ UNLV, 11/29 vs. Oregon St.
The Broncos are back!! After a couple of underwhelming seasons and a coaching change Boise has rebounded the past two years and won the Mountain West title a season ago, their first championship since 2019. I don’t expect them to upset Oregon in Eugene, but that’s a Week 2 non-conference battle. Their focus should be on winning ten games & another conference championship.
13 Appalachian State
Last Season: 9-5 (Won the New Mexico Bowl)
Key Games: 9/28 vs. Liberty, 11/23 vs. James Madison
The overhyped teams in the power conferences will beat each other up. Only one or two might emerge unscathed. That leaves room for a Group of 5 team (or two) to rise thru the rankings a bit. I believe the highest ranked conference champion of those “lesser” conferences is guaranteed a playoff berth. A year ago that would’ve been the C-USA champion Liberty Flames, but I’m predicting a horse race between Boise St. & the Sun Belt’s Appalachian St. The Mountaineers’ two key games are both in the cozy confines of Boone, NC.
12 Alabama
Last Season: 12-2 (Defeated in the CFP Semis by Michigan)
In case you hadn’t heard, Nick Saban is no longer the head coach at Alabama. He simply had nothing left to prove. New coach Kalen DeBoer is no slouch, having won 25 games the past two years with the Washington Huskies, including an appearance in last season’s CFP Title game. I don’t believe we’ll see that much of a decline for The Tide. Saban surely didn’t leave the cupboard bare. However, I think it is too much to expect an undefeated championship caliber effort out of the gate. Fans in Tuscaloosa will need to settle for a solid record & a playoff appearance.
11 Oregon
Last Season: 12-2 (Won the Fiesta Bowl)
Key Games: 10/12 vs. Ohio St., 11/2 @ Michigan
Expectations are thru the roof for the Ducks heading into their inaugural season in the…*checks notes*…Big Ten, but I’m not buying it. I don’t believe this is the team that walks into a new, STACKED conference and wins a title. They will not beat Ohio St., and upsetting Michigan in The Big House is a tall order. Ten wins & a playoff berth is the ceiling for Oregon right now.
10 Clemson
Last Season: 9-4 (Beat Kentucky in the Gator Bowl)
Key Games: 10/5 @ Florida St., 11/9 @ Virginia Tech
The Tigers have not lived up to their lofty standards the past few years, last making a playoff appearance in 2020. That is likely to change with the new format, but I’m still not convinced they are serious title contenders. Of course the first task is to win the ACC, which means the game in Tallahassee on my birthday is a must win.
9 Missouri
Last Season: 11-2 (Beat Ohio St. in the Cotton Bowl)
Key Games: 10/5 @ Texas A&M, 10/26 @ Alabama
It is easy for the Tigers to get lost in the SEC shuffle, but a season ago they announced their presence with authority, with wins over Tennessee & Florida. I’m not sure how much credence to give their defeat of Ohio St. in the Cotton Bowl considering alot of the Buckeyes’ firepower was MIA, but it looks good on paper. Can Missouri mirror that success this year?? Don’t overlook their late season visit to Tuscaloosa. If there was ever a time to make a powerful statement that’d be it.
8 Mississippi
Last Season: 11-2 (Beat Penn St. in the Peach Bowl)
I will freely admit to caving into peer pressure on this one. The Rebels are getting a ton of preseason love from almost every outlet, so I assume where there’s smoke there has to be some fire. Still, visits to Tuscaloosa in September and Athens in October seem daunting. Winning both games, though a gargantuan task, would certainly secure a Top Ten ranking. Heck, pulling off just one upset would grab some attention. The linchpin to the entire season might just be hosting LSU only one week after visiting ‘Bama. The loser of that game probably tanks their playoff aspirations.
7 Oklahoma State
Last Season: 10-4 (Won the Texas Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 vs. Utah, 9/28 @ Kansas St.
Okay, okay…I actually did some research so I’d get this right. The Big 12 lost Texas & Oklahoma while gaining Arizona, Arizona St., Utah, and Colorado, and you’ll recall that Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, and Central Florida joined a year ago. What all of that boils down to is an opportunity to seize the top spot & become the new standard bearer for the conference. The Cowboys were in the mix last season, but they’re probably going to face a tough battle with newcomer Utah for conference supremacy. The Utes visit Stillwater in September. Don’t sleep on that game.
6 Florida State
Last Season: 13-1 (Obliterated by Georgia in the Orange Bowl)
After several years of mediocrity the Seminoles have rebounded the last couple of seasons, coming within a whisper of the playoff last year. It is likely that they would’ve received the nod if not for a serious injury to QB Jordan Travis, although the beatdown they received in the Orange Bowl caused people to wonder if it was all a mirage anyway. Travis has moved on to the NFL now, and Florida St. has the opportunity to answer any lingering doubts. They’re still in the ACC (for now), which is a double-edged sword. On one hand Clemson is probably the only obstacle to winning a conference title. Conversely, that title doesn’t earn much respect these days. A November trek to South Bend looks like the pivotal moment of their championship dreams.
The Fighting Irish will always be in the playoff conversation given their much ballyhooed history & independent status. An at-large bid is likely reserved in their name as long as they hover near the top half of the rankings. Perhaps I am being naive, but trips to College Station, TX & The Coliseum in L.A. don’t feel that intimidating. I believe Notre Dame wins both games. Hosting Florida St. to end the season is helpful, but it is also a classic trap game.
4 Kansas State
Last Season: 9-4 (Beat NC St. in the Pop Tarts Bowl)
Key Games: 9/28 vs. Oklahoma St., 11/30 @ Iowa St.
While Oklahoma St. will be in the Big 12 mix I foresee the Wildcats being the old school Big 12 team that’ll fend off (almost) all the newcomers. Winning on the road in Ames, IA to close the season is a tough mountain to climb, but I think it’ll clinch a conference title game appearance for K St. Undefeated?? It’s possible…until the playoff. They are not a legit national championship contender.
3 Ohio State
Last Season: 11-2 (Beaten by Missouri in the Cotton Bowl)
Key Games: 10/12 @ Oregon, 11/2 @ Penn St., 11/30 vs. Michigan
The Buckeyes lost some talented players to the NFL & in the transfer portal, but they also added a ton of five star recruits & well-regarded transfers. Not only do most expect them to not miss a beat, but it seems probable that they’ve actually gotten better. The Big Ten situation is a catch-22. On one hand changes at Michigan mean that they are unlikely to be as dominant and Ohio St. will probably be favored in that matchup. On the other hand, the conference has added Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington, so the path to a title is even tougher. I don’t know if undefeated is a realistic goal, but I am not sure it matters that much. Survive & advance to the Big Ten title game. Win the conference championship and receive a first round playoff bye. That’s the blueprint.
2 Georgia
Last Season: 13-1 (Destroyed Florida St. in the Orange Bowl
“To be The Man you’ve got to beat The Man”, and the only teams that have defeated the Bulldogs in the past three years are Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship (Georgia then beat The Tide to win the National Championship) and Michigan in last season’s title game. Georgia has become THE team. They are on another level, and will need every ounce of that superiority to repel their challengers. Sadly I still think “style points” are a thing, so even if the ‘Dawgs grind out an unbeaten regular season they might not hold the top spot if a couple of those victories are unimpressive. Visits to Tuscaloosa & Austin, TX are mountains Georgia must climb, and those trips feel rather perilous.
1 Utah
Last Season: 8-5 (Lost the Las Vegas Bowl)
Key Games: 9/21 @ Oklahoma St., 11/23 vs. Iowa St.
Okay…stay with me. Imagine this scenario. Two loss SEC & Big Ten Champions emerge from the rubble. Notre Dame & the ACC Champ (either Florida St. or Clemson) both have one loss and a couple of tight wins. Meanwhile, the Utes, with 25 year old seventh year senior QB Cam Rising, who’s as old or older than half the starters in the NFL, returns after missing the whole season a year ago with a serious knee injury. Utah also returns 16 starters & 73% of their production from a year ago. In their inaugural Big 12 season Utah starts 4-0 before heading into Stillwater and getting a huge road win over Oklahoma St. They blow thru the remaining schedule like one of those tornadoes in Twister before winning the Big 12 title game over Kansas St. Can they stand tall against Big Ten & SEC opponents in the playoff?? Year in & year out…probably not. This season?? It seems plausible.
I hadn’t planned on publishing an edition of W&M right now since I am already in football mode, with both the annual NFL Preview & College Pre-Season Top 25 on the horizon. However, The Olympics popped up and, despite my decision to ignore the event’s existence, life had other plans and now I have some things to get off my chest.
I did not watch the opening ceremonies of The Olympics. I had already decided I didn’t have much interest in the whole deal, and on that particular Friday night actually had plans (comedian Henry Cho at my beloved RGPAC). That being said, by now I assume most of us know all about it whether you watched or not. Look, I am not easily offended. Modern society drives me crazy with everyone being so triggered and seemingly looking for things to be upset about. But…but…the producers of that opening ceremony knew exactly what they were doing. Sure, it was a celebration of French history & culture. Fine. However, those so assuredly opining that the depiction of The Last Supper was instead a portrayal of The Feast of Dionysus were mostly wrong. It was an homage to Leonardo Da Vinci’s painting of The Last Supper, with Dionysus making an appearance. An artistic mashup. No one can be sure of the intent or what is in the hearts of others, and perhaps Christians need to cool our jets a bit, but to deny that there were reasons for feathers to be ruffled is intellectually dishonest.
I am still young & hip enough to adapt to the changing tides of technology, but can’t help but empathize with older sports fans as the landscape expands and so much content moves to streaming channels. My father always loved watching our WV Mountaineers, but many of their games (particularly basketball) are now only available on streamers like ESPN+. I have an older neighbor who loves pro wrasslin’ (I know it’s not exactly a sport, but stick with me) and he’ll be lost when some WWE programming moves to Netflix next year. Thursday night NFL games are shown on Amazon Video, which will also be getting a piece of the NBA pie in the near future. A big chunk of the ongoing Olympics is on Peacock. I just ran across an article indicating that future NASCAR races will be split amongst multiple outlets, including Amazon. Streaming is no longer the future, it is the present. For elderly folks that means keeping track of a multitude of new & unfamiliar channels with varying price points that begin to add up, especially when living on a meager fixed income.
I’ve never been a huge fan of The Olympics. It always seemed odd to celebrate a bunch of sporting events every four years that we pay absolutely no attention to 99% of the time. Insomuch as I have watched thru the years, I usually prefer the Summer Games. I don’t care for winter or snow, and watching events like speed skating or skiing just makes me wonder “Aren’t those people cold??”. Summer though, has basketball, boxing, and gymnastics. Yes, I am confident enough in my smoldering machismo to admit that those talented performers vaulting and flinging themselves across uneven bars is impressive, and being from West Virginia means that I proudly watched Mary Lou Retton bring home the gold in 1984. However, either something has changed with many of these athletes or my perception has changed. Either way, patriotism & the honor of representing one’s country seems to have…devolved…atleast here in America. NBA players in the Olympics was cool when Magic, Jordan, Bird, and a plethora of future Hall of Famers steamrolled their way to basketball gold in 1992, but now, seeing a guy like Lebron James, who is his own biggest fan and didn’t hesitate to disrespect the American flag not that long ago, being chosen to carry that flag during the Opening Ceremonies simply leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Reading about all of the controversy involving the boxing competition just reinforces my negative attitude. There are so many conflicting opinions flying around that it’s difficult to nail down the actual truth, but as a sports fan such disputes ruin the appeal no matter what. Your mileage may vary, and that’s okay. If these Paris Games are providing you with hours of solid entertainment by all means enjoy, but I am glad to have other options.
Hey, my Pittsburgh Pirates are remaining slightly above .500 and, though a division title is quite unlikely, they are only a few games out in the chase for a wildcard spot. Do I believe they will make a post-season appearance for the first time in nearly a decade?? Of course not. I’m not even convinced those last couple of playoff berths…both one game & out situations…even count for much. However, as a lifelong fan who has suffered thru decades of irrelevance (mostly) since the Pirates last World Series victory in 1979, I will opine that it is nice to atleast have the illusion of opportunity this late into a season. It’s much better than cellar dwelling.
Let’s talk about rule changes in sports. We got a glimpse of the new NFL kickoff format during the Hall of Fame Game, and my first impression is that I don’t hate it. Give me a few more games to digest it and I will form a more conclusive opinion. A rule I know I don’t like though is MLB’s Ghost Runner, in which the team at bat during extra innings gets an automatic runner at second base that hasn’t been earned by any stretch, except for some kind of weird obsession to get the damn game over with so people can go home. I am a baseball purist who doesn’t appreciate attempts to alter a sport that’s been doing just fine for a century & and half, but also realize that technology evolves and society shifts in various directions, so I don’t complain about every little thing that changes. That being said, just giving teams a runner already in scoring position can significantly impact the outcome. It compromises the integrity of the game. Of course we’re talking about an entity that recognizes Barry Bonds as its All-Time Home Run King, so I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised.
Sincere apologies to my non-sports folks who thought your nightmare was over at the conclusion of our final round of football picks. Don’t worry…there are a few things percolating, but for now I’m still in football mode and have some things to get off my chest.
Happy trails to former Alabama coach Nick Saban. I don’t know that many outside the Crimson Tide bubble had any idea retirement was on the horizon, but perhaps it shouldn’t have been a total surprise. The man has nothing left to prove, and an old school traditionalist like Saban can’t be happy with the evolution of college football. Conference realignment. NIL. Transfer portal. One of the advantages an elite program like ‘Bama has had thru the years is depth. Their second & third string players are as good or better than most other teams starters. Now though, those talented backups can just go somewhere else to get more playing time. The SEC is never an easy path, but throw in Texas & Oklahoma and the road will be much tougher. Also, the playoff is growing from four to 12 teams, which means more opportunity but also more competition. It’s a grind, and going forward I don’t believe we’ll see many 80 year olds still coaching as in the glory days of Bobby Bowden & Joe Paterno. Selfishly I’m glad to see Saban go. It’s not that I dislike the man or hate Alabama, but dynasties aren’t much fun if they don’t involve your favorite team. The rest of us prefer a little variety, and their dominance had grown tedious. Perhaps they’ll be just as successful under new head coach Kalen DeBoer, but I suspect there will be a small decline, meaning the Tide will find themselves ranked in the #15-20 range for awhile, with a playoff berth far from guaranteed.
I don’t pat myself on the back often, mostly because the accuracy of my predictions isn’t generally something to brag about. However, sometimes I end up being on the right track at the wrong time. Two such occasions arose recently. First, in my 2022 NFL Preview I opined “at 70 years of age Pete Carroll is the oldest head coach in the NFL, and after a dozen years perhaps it is time for the Seahawks to move on”. As it turns out, I was simply ahead of the curve, with Carroll departing Seattle a year later. Secondly, my prediction that the Dallas Cowboys would have a losing season and head coach Mike McCarthy could be fired by Halloween obviously didn’t pan out, but the fact that they flamed out in the playoffs and McCarthy nearly got fired means I’m not completely off my rocker. I give him one…maybe two…more years.
Ironically, Zach lost our final bowl game pick, but I know he’s glad that his reverse psychology trick worked and the Michigan Wolverines won the National Championship. Which reminds me…I opined that “I believe Jim Harbaugh helps his alma mater win their first National Championship since 1997, and then, happy knowing that he left the program in better shape than he found it in nine years ago, heads back to the NFL”. I actually nailed it for once, with Harbaugh now the new coach of the LA Chargers. Anyway, I finished our picks with a 74-61 record, while Zach was 61-74. As always, I had alot of fun doing picks each week with my nephew and look forward to next season.
So the Final Four in the NFL are the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, & Detroit Lions. The Philadelphia Eagles, who I had winning the whole thing, are nowhere to be found after imploding down the stretch. I cannot…will not…even fathom cheering for the Ravens, and I’d prefer not to see the Niners share the record with my Steelers & the hated Patriots by winning their sixth Lombardi Trophy, so a Baltimore-‘Frisco Super Bowl is the least appealing scenario. If it happens though I’ll be a 49ers fan. Despite my disdain for mid…at best…Taylor Swift and penchant for preferring underdogs, I’m not at the point of hating the Chiefs yet. It’s impossible to dislike Andy Reid, and drunken Jason Kelce supporting his brother is entertaining. I assume that most fans without a dog in the fight are hoping to see the Lions in the Super Bowl, and it would be fresh & fun. Head coach Dan Campbell is a bit too aggressive for my taste, but I’m all in on Detroit if they can pull it off.
Continuing the theme of departing head coaches…..
I’m happy that Bill Belichick left the Patriots. I can’t do anything about the past or the fact that their “dynasty” existed, but he’s done and Brady retired, so the nightmare is over. Belichick might land somewhere else eventually because he isn’t content to walk away like Saban, but I think we all know by now that the guy who had a losing record in five seasons with the Cleveland Browns three decades ago is the real Bill Belichick, not the dude who fell into six Super Bowl titles with a talented QB & nefarious machinations that went unpunished.
I’m not a numbers guy. Math has never been my thing. Having said that, the symmetry in our numbers heading into the final week is kind of cool, given the fact that it was mostly unplanned. I knew I had a significant lead and it’d be tough for Zach to catch up, but I am a gentleman and had decided that we’d do bonus picks since it is our finale and it makes RedZone that much more entertaining. There is no Thursday or Monday game, so with the exception of two games on Saturday and an epic Sunday night battle all the action will be on Sunday afternoon. I hope Scott Hanson eats his Wheaties and gets plenty of sleep the night before. At any rate, we were both 3-2 last weekend, and with all but the CFP National Championship to be played Zach is 3-6 in our bowl picks while I am 5-4. What that means is that even if I lose every remaining pick I cannot slip below .500, while Zach could tie me if I lose every pick while he wins all of them. Realistically that won’t happen for a variety of reasons, but it’s amusing to view things mathematically.
My Season: 68-56
Zach’s Season: 57-67
Houston at Indianapolis (-1.5)
The winner will be in the playoffs, while the loser begins their offseason program. When they met in Week 2 in Houston the Colts won pretty easily, but that feels like a lifetime ago. The Texans are clearly on an upward trajectory and I foresee a rather comfortable victory. Conversely, Zach likes RB Jonathan Taylor to lead the Colts rushing attack, enabling them to win with ball control.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Indianapolis
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-4.5)
There’s nothing at stake in the Battle of Ohio except pride & momentum. The Browns are playoff bound and locked into the 5th seed, which means they’ll probably face the winner of the AFC South. The Bengals will miss the playoffs after being in the AFC title game a year ago. Do the Browns rest their starters?? Probably. Is that enough for Cincy to finish their disappointing season on high note?? I think so. Zach believes in Cleveland’s new starting QB Joe Flacco and thinks he’ll have another big game.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Zach’s Pick: Cleveland
Atlanta at New Orleans (-4)
The winner could actually capture a division title…or be out of the playoffs altogether. If Tampa wins this game is meaningless, but if they lose then the winner here gets a trip to the postseason. The Falcons got a home win the first time these teams met a month ago, but I don’t believe they can replicate that success on the road. Zach thinks QB Derek Carr will lead New Orleans to a big win.
My Pick: New Orleans
Zach’s Pick: New Orleans
Jacksonville (-3.5) at Tennessee
The Titans can only play the role of spoiler. If the Jags win they secure a division title, and if they lose they’ll need a couple other dominoes to fall the right way to sneak into the 7th playoff seed. Jacksonville won easily when the two teams met in November, but that was at home. Tennessee now has the home field, though with nothing to play for and rookie QB Will Levis banged up the deck is stacked against them. The favorites will likely have QB Trevor Lawrence back in the lineup, which should be enough. As a Steelers fan I hate it because we need the Jaguars to lose, but I have to be intellectually honest. Zach has faith in the Titans’ rushing attack and thinks they will control time of possession & the line of scrimmage en route to an upset.
My Pick: Jacksonville
Zach’s Pick: Tennessee
Tampa Bay (-5.5) at Carolina
If the Bucs win they’re headed to the postseason as division champs. Lose and they go home. The Panthers are even worse this year than last, but traded away what will now be the #1 overall pick to choose QB Bryce Young in last year’s draft with the top pick. Carolina seems to be a poorly run organization and will need to hit a home run with their next coaching hire. Anything can happen in the NFL, but this feels like a rather low hurdle for Tampa to clear. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Tampa Bay
Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Seattle (-3) at Arizona
The 4-12 Cards are finishing up another miserable season and will spend the next several months asking themselves alot of questions. Conversely, the Seahawks will play in the postseason if they win and the Green Bay Packers lose. Obviously the only thing they can control is what they do, but it might not be as easy as most would assume. Arizona upset Philly on the road last weekend, so can they play that well at home?? Perhaps…but the smart money is on the favorites. Zach opines that QB Geno Smith is playing well right now and believes that’ll be enough.
My Pick: Seattle
Zach’s Pick: Seattle
Dallas (-13.5) at Washington
The Cowboys were gifted a win last weekend by an incompetent officiating crew, and now they can secure a division title with another victory. The Commanders are another team that might be making significant changes in the offseason, but they’d love to finish on a high note by knocking Dallas down a peg. I don’t think that’ll happen, but I do believe it’ll be a surprisingly close game. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
LA Rams at San Francisco (-3.5)
The Niners have already clinched the NFC’s top seed & a first round bye, so I suspect they’ll sit their starters for all or most of the game. The Rams have clinched a wildcard berth. When these teams met in Los Angeles in Week 2 ‘Frisco won by a touchdown, but much has changed for both teams since then, making comparisons impossible. My vibe is the game means more to the Rams, with the home team having their eyes on a bigger prize. Zach doesn’t believe ‘Frisco will lose even if they rest their best players. They are his Super Bowl favorites.
My Pick: LA Rams
Zach’s Pick: San Francisco
Philadelphia (-6) at NY Giants
The Eagles are playing for a division title despite losing 4 out of their last 5 games. Everyone is trying to figure out what exactly has gone wrong in the past month, and the powers-that-be in that locker room need to fix it quickly. The Giants have really gone off the rails this season and have nothing to play for, but neither do they have anything to lose. I don’t know if Philly can recover their mojo enough to get to another Super Bowl, but I think they’ll find a way to win this game. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Philadelphia
Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia
Buffalo (-3) at Miami
Sunday night has the best game last. The winner will be division champions. The Dolphins are in the playoffs no matter what. The Bills are in with a win, but would need some help if they lose. Miami is battling the injury bug, including the loss of linebacker Bradley Chubb with a torn ACL, which is why the oddsmakers like Buffalo on the road. Everything is pointing toward an emphatic victory for the favorites, but I think the Dolphins are ready to rise up & shock the world. Conversely, Zach likes QB Josh Allen to lead his team on a late, game winning drive.
As I sit here watching the Jets battle the Browns, enjoying the mid-holiday malaise between Christmas & New Year’s, I can’t help but believe this is one of the coolest times of the year. Christmas movies are over, but random college football games are on at totally arbitrary hours of the day. All the yuletide pressure & stress is behind us, and I’ve finally reached the age when going on out New Year’s Eve isn’t as appealing as it once was, so it is likely that I’ll just chill in my humble abode with my wacky neighbor eating pizza & watching The Ball drop on TV. There is also plenty of NFL action on Sunday, with only one game on Saturday and no Monday night game. I currently hold a comfortable lead in our picks, even though Zach (2-3), bested me (1-4) last week. I haven’t kept track of our bowl picks, so hopefully those don’t sink me below .500. Anyway, we’ll see you on the other side Manoverse. Happy New Year to all. In the words of Lt. Dan’s gal pal Long Limbs Lenore…”Don’t you just love New Year’s? You get to start all over. Everybody gets a second chance.”
My Season: 60-50
Zach’s Season: 51-59
Detroit at Dallas (-6)
The 11-4 Lions have clinched their first division title in over three decades, winning three out of four games in the process. They’d love to be the NFC’s top seed but it won’t be easy. Meanwhile, the 10-5 Cowboys will be in the playoffs, but they’re still chasing a division title and have lost two consecutive games for the first time all season. This is the Saturday night game and I hope it’s a great one. There is so much on the line that one can fairly assume the players will “leave it all out on the field”. It is a chance for Detroit to make a statement going into the postseason…an opportunity they need to grab with gusto. Zach thinks Dallas QB Dak Prescott is a legit League MVP candidate and might prove it with an upset victory, but he believes no matter what it’ll be very close either way.
My Pick: Detroit
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
Atlanta at Chicago (-3)
The 6-9 Bears don’t have much to play for other than pride, while the 7-8 Falcons play in such a weak division that they are still in the postseason conversation. Chicago has shown slight improvement in the second half of the season, but I still expect them to blow the whole deal up in the offseason and rebuild (again) with another new coach and most likely a different quarterback. Atlanta might keep the coaching staff intact, but will probably move on from QB Desmond Ridder. It’s The Windy City in December, so cold & dreary is a given, although it looks like it’ll be dry. I think we’re looking at low scoring, smashmouth football, with the underdogs scoring a mild upset. Zach has low expectations but thinks the Bears are on the upswing.
My Pick: Atlanta
Zach’s Pick: Chicago
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-3)
At the moment the Bucs hold a one game division lead, but the Saints could change that, in the process actually pulling the Falcons (if they win) into a three way tie, much like last season. I have no idea about tiebreakers or any of that jazz. I’m a fan of New Orleans QB Derek Carr and believe he’ll lead his team to a division title. Conversely, Zach thinks Tampa is peaking late and has more faith in QB Baker Mayfield.
My Pick: New Orleans
Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Las Vegas at Indianapolis (-3)
I don’t know if Vegas’ Christmas defeat of the Chiefs means good things for them or just indicates big trouble in KC. They aren’t winning the AFC West, but are mathematically still in the playoff hunt. Indy would be the final AFC playoff team right now, but there’s work left to be done. I have more faith in the Raiders defense than anyone else involved in this game, so I think they grind out a single digit victory. Zach opines that the Colts’ offense isn’t on the same level as Kansas City, ergo Vegas should be able to shut them down even easier.
My Pick: Las Vegas
Zach’s Pick: Las Vegas
Green Bay at Minnesota (-2)
We knew it’d be a transitional season in Green Bay, but The Cheeseheads can’t be thrilled with the possibility of a losing season. However, I’ve seen some good things and believe they’ll be much improved next year. The Vikings are right about where I thought they’d be and would’ve been much better if not for some key injuries. Oddly enough both teams still have a path to the playoffs, although it is a tough road. It’s the Sunday night game on NBC, and if I can’t be kissing a beautiful woman or watching old drunk people with no rhythm try to dance then I suppose this isn’t the worst alternative. Ultimately I don’t foresee the Packers in the postseason, but they should win this game. Zach concurs.
While we limp to the finish here the NFL is just beginning to heat up. After going 1-4 a week ago Zach needs to kick it up a notch these last few weeks, and finishing 3-2 last week means my goal is to stay the course and close the season comfortably above .500. Our Steelers are long shots to make the playoffs, so I guess we’ll need to invest in other rooting interests on the road to the Super Bowl.
My Season: 59-46
Zach’s Season: 49-56
Buffalo (-11.5) at LA Chargers
Lots of folks were ready to give up on the Bills, but since handing the Cowboys a three TD beatdown it’s funny to watch people jump back on the bandwagon. They’re still not going to win the division, but watch out if Buffalo earns a wild card. Conversely, the Chargers have already fired their coach and lost QB Justin Herbert to broken finger. LA winning would be an epic stunner…but can they keep it close?? Zach believes that the underdogs could possibly play better than they have all season under new leadership, but it won’t be enough. I agree with that assessment.
My Pick: Buffalo
Zach’s Pick: Buffalo
Cleveland at Houston (-2.5)
Thanks to close victories by both teams last week the chances of the Steelers getting into the playoffs are slim to none, with slim warming up the car. Credit where it is due to the Browns, who have fared better than I expected, although I think they’d get beaten like a drum against any postseason opponent. The Texans still have an opportunity to win their division, but have work left to do. This is a monumental Christmas Eve battle, and I think the home team gets the job done as long as rookie QB CJ Stroud clears concussion protocol. Conversely, Zach gives the nod to Cleveland on the strength of their defense.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Cleveland
Seattle (-2.5) at Tennessee
The Seahawks got a monster win over Philadelphia Monday night but still have a few hurdles to clear in the NFC playoff scrum thanks to losing 5 out of 6 before beating the Eagles. The Titans have to settle for the role of spoiler, having lost two of their last three, both in overtime, meaning they haven’t given up and are still battling for victories. It’s a classic trap game and nothing would surprise me, but I think Geno Smith will be back under center for the favorites and they’ll remain in playoff contention. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Seattle
Zach’s Pick: Seattle
Las Vegas at Kansas City (-10)
The Chiefs should still easily win the AFC West, but they clearly have alot more doubters than anyone could’ve imagined as recently as Halloween. Meanwhile, the Raiders laid a smackdown on the Chargers that forced that organization to fire both the head coach & general manager. On paper it doesn’t look very appetizing, but could it be yet another trap game?? The home field is significant, and I’m not quite ready to toss KC into the trash bin. The points concern Zach, and he feels like the Chiefs have been playing down to their competition…but he doesn’t believe a Christmas miracle is in the cards for Vegas.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Kansas City
Baltimore at San Francisco (-5.5)
As much as I hate to admit it the Ravens are firing on all cylinders and might be the best team in the AFC. They’ve won four in a row, while the Niners are riding a six game winning steak. Could this be a Christmas Night Super Bowl preview?? It’s possible. I foresee a low scoring, well played slugfest with a couple of WOW plays on offense but even more impressive gems from both defenses. Something like 20-13, with the home team continuing their momentum. Zach sees ‘Frisco as the more complete & balanced team.
The Manofesto 