Y’all, I realize we’re not writing the Great American Novel here. I don’t even know if anyone reads this stuff other than me & Zach. It’s a fun little thing that I do because I am easily amused. Having said that, there are times when the struggle is real, and I can’t seem to find the motivation to follow thru with this “fun little thing”. Thankfully, I impose upon myself a deadline. Whether or not we’re picking a Thursday game, our picks are posted before kickoff of those games. It seems silly to call it pressure, so I’ll just call it a beneficial guideline.
Observations from Last Week:
I predicted a final score of 27-7, Indiana over Minnesota. The actual score was 31-7. Not too shabby 🤔.
It was a pleasure watching the Pitt Panthers get absolutely dog walked by Notre Dame at home.
Upon further review, perhaps we should pump the brakes on LaNorris Sellers. He needs to transfer to a school with a more skilled offensive line and spend another year (or two) focusing on the mental aspect of being a quarterback.
I don’t understand 4th & goal inside the one yard line being run out of the shotgun. Why make it more difficult than necessary??
The Washington Commanders should move Heaven & Earth to acquire defensive players Montez Sweat, Josh Sweat, & T’Vondre Sweat and christen them The Sweat Hogs.
My Season: 38-34
Zach’s Season: 32-40
TCU at Houston (-1.5)
The Big 12 is still up for grabs, but this is essentially a must-win for the 8-2 Cougars. The 6-4 Horned Frogs can only play a spoiler role after losing their last two games. I foresee a tight game that’ll be fun to watch, but I don’t think we’ll see an upset with the stakes so high. Zach likes Houston in a shootout.
My Pick: Houston
Zach’s Pick: Houston
Louisville at Southern Methodist (-3)
The 7-3 Mustangs are still in the thick of the ACC title hunt, plus they have the home field. The Cardinals are also 7-3, but have two more conference losses than SMU, meaning they’re pretty much eliminated from contention. The underdogs have also lost two consecutive games, and I can’t overlook momentum. Zach concurs.
My Pick: SMU
Zach’s Pick: SMU
Tennessee (-4.5) at Florida
Neither team is getting near the SEC title game, but it’s pretty clear which one has had a more successful season. The 3-7 Gators have been in the headlines mainly for firing their head coach, with talking heads offering a plethora of speculation about who’ll be the next guy to get the gig. Conversely, the 7-3 Vols have had a nice season and probably exceeded expectations. At the very least they are the more stable program right now. Winning at The Swamp is always a tall order, but I think the visiting favorites will get the job done. Zach, on the other hand, believes Florida is a better team than we’ve been led to believe, while Tennessee is mediocre at best. He likes the Gators to feast in The Swamp.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Florida
Jacksonville (-2.5) at Arizona
With QB Kyler Murray injured, the 3-7 Cards have handed the keys to Jacoby Brissett, although I don’t think it really matters. It’d be shocking if Jonathan Gannon is still the head coach in Arizona next season. Meanwhile, the 6-4 Jags are just Jagging as usual. They win some, they lose some. No one outside the state of Florida cares, and even in the state Jacksonville is probably the sixth favorite football team at best. I have to lean toward the visiting favorites, because Trevor Lawrence is atleast supposed to be a good quarterback. Zach appreciates Jax’s dominant upset of the Chargers last week, and though he doesn’t see Arizona as being that bad defensively, he’s still picking the favorites.
My Pick: Jacksonville
Zach’s Pick: Jacksonville
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-3.5)
In my humble opinion the oddsmakers are wrong, or perhaps just disrespectful. A three point home field bump is the standard jumping off point in the NFL, but Indy is 8-2 with wins over Denver & the LA Chargers, while the Chiefs are 5-5 with a two game losing streak. Look, I get it…no one wants to fall into the trap of believing the Chiefs really aren’t great anymore, only for them to roar back and win their fourth Lombardi Trophy in the past six years. QB Patrick Mahomes is just 30 years old and in his prime. Andy Reid is still a great coach. However, at some point we have to start believing what we’re seeing. We can’t keep making excuses for KC while totally disregarding the Colts. That’s why this game is so important. Sure, there are playoff berths & division titles to be decided, but there is also a matter of respect. On Monday, will everyone be saying “See, I told you Indianapolis was just a bunch of posers”, or will doubters concede they’ve been wrong?? Will folks be giving Last Rites to the Chiefs dynasty, or will true blue die hards proudly proclaim “I KNEW they’d wake up!! We’re going back to the Super Bowl baby!!”?? I’m not sure about Indy’s chances to win it all, but I do think they’re the real deal and will prove it. Conversely, Zach thinks the Chiefs will somehow back into the playoffs, and he’s still not sold on Colts QB Daniel Jones.
I’m not going to waste time with a wordy preamble today. Conference races are heating up, division titles are up for grabs, and playoff berths hang in the balance. It is absolutely the best time of the year to vegg out all weekend long watching football and leaving the insanity of the world out in the cold.
Observations from Last Week:
Congratulations to the Oregon St. Beavers for winning the Pac 12.
I agree with Kirk Herbstreit…Oklahoma’s kicker (nor any other player) should NOT be allowed to wear literal shorts as part of the uniform.
Non-football thought: MLB badly needs a salary cap ⚾️.
Kudos to Jags kicker Cam Little, who now holds the NFL record with a 68 yard field goal, the longest in the history of football.
I was defeated in one of my leagues by an opponent who started two players on their bye and another player on IR, so that’s how my fantasy season is going 👀.
My Season: 31-25
Zach’s Season: 20-36
BYU at Texas Tech (-10.5)
Theoretically we could see a rematch in the Big 12 title game next month. I am a little surprised by the points, given the fact that the Cougars are undefeated while the Red Raiders suffered a close loss a few weeks ago. Sure, Tech has the home field, but should that translate into being a double digit favorite?? Perhaps I don’t have all the information, but I’ll be stunned if it isn’t a much closer contest, no matter who wins. Zach agrees. He views BYU as a well coached team and really likes freshman QB Bear Bachmeier.
My Pick: BYU
Zach’s Pick: BYU
Texas A&M (-7) at Missouri
Did you know the Aggies are unbeaten?? I didn’t. The 6-2 Tigers will likely provide stiff competition, despite having lost two of their last three. However, without starting QB Beau Pribula, who is sidelined with an ankle injury, I just don’t think an upset is in the cards. Zach likes Missouri’s defense, but agrees it’s probably not enough.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Florida State at Clemson (-2.5)
Sometimes the hype just doesn’t match the reality. While there are blueblood programs that simply reload year after year and string together seemingly endless successful seasons, the truth is that each team is made up of human beings. Things happen. Injuries occur. Athletes don’t always live up to expectations. After a decade & a half at or near the top of the mountain, the 3-5 Tigers are struggling to achieve bowl eligibility. The 4-4 Seminoles know all about that, and for awhile it seemed like they’d gotten over that hump after several years of mediocrity. That was before they lost 4 out of the last 5 games. I honestly have no idea what to expect. Will Clemson wake up and defend their home turf?? Or does Florida St. smell blood in the water?? I think it’ll be the latter, with a late field goal sealing the deal. Zach still has faith in Dabo Swinney and thinks the home team will win a close one.
My Pick: Florida St.
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
LSU at Alabama (-10.5)
I’m looking at this game much differently than I would have just a month ago. The wheels are falling off in Baton Rouge, with the Bayou Bengals losing three of their last four games. Conversely, after losing their season opener The Tide have rolled to seven consecutive victories. I think ‘Bama wins by atleast two TDs…maybe three. Conversely, Zach feels like, no matter what has transpired, this is a rivalry game and the underdogs will atleast make it interesting.
My Pick: Alabama
Zach’s Pick: LSU
Baltimore (-4) at Minnesota
Don’t look now, but the rumors of Baltimore’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. At 3-5 they still have work to do to get back into playoff contention, but when healthy & at full strength there might not be a more dangerous team in the NFL. Meanwhile, the 4-4 Vikes are struggling to put it all together. We all understand the potential, and with quarterback JJ McCarthy back in the saddle they’re a better team. However, I foresee more close losses while they continue to build toward a better future in a couple of seasons. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Baltimore
Zach’s Pick: Baltimore
New England at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
So I guess the folks in New England are getting cocky again, thinking that QB Drake Maye is the second coming of Tom Brady. I suppose they’ve earned that confidence after going 7-2 and piecing together a six game win streak. Unfortunately they’re going up against the 6-2 Bucs and their signal caller Baker Mayfield, who knows a thing or two about cockiness. I understand that Tampa has suffered some injuries, but I believe they’ll find a way to grind out a tough win at home. Zach thinks Maye will be good, but he likes Mayfield to prevail this time.
My Pick: Tampa Bay
Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Detroit (-8.5) at Washington
The Commanders came into the season with alot of hype & momentum, but at 3-6 after losing four straight it just feels like a lost season. As much as I like QB Jayden Daniels the fact is that he’s an injury waiting to happen. He cannot be counted on to be available much of the time, and that’s a problem. The 5-3 Lions have lost two of their last three games, but I am still all in on them being a legit Super Bowl contender. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Detroit
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
Philadelphia at Green Bay (-2.5)
It’s early November, so I am assuming the tundra at Lambeau Field isn’t frozen just yet. However, the Packers still get the requisite home field bump. They are 5-2-1 but should actually have a better record, with a rare tie against the Cowboys and an inexplicable loss to Carolina being real head scratchers. Meanwhile, there seems to be alot of locker room drama in Philly. They’re 6-2 and will easily win their division, almost by default…but can they make another deep playoff run and defend their Super Bowl title?? This is the Monday night game so the talking heads will be all over it. Either way the outcome will be interpreted as some sort of defining statement, but it also might be an NFC Championship preview. I think the Eagles will try to silence their doubters with a mild upset. Zach doesn’t believe Green Bay is the real deal, so he’s calling for the “upset”.
Do you smell that?!?!?? The air has become noticeably chilly. Baseball is in the home stretch. Hockey season has started. The NBA’s preseason has begun, even if no one cares. Christmas decorations are already trying to muscle Halloween decor off store shelves. October has its own vibe, and as I’ve matured I have finally begun to understand the charm of it all. Of course, especially for our purposes here, football is still the best thing going right now, which is fine by me.
Observations from Last Week:
It was always Tom Brady…and cheating, never Bill Belichick. He’s been exposed as a fraud.
God help me, but my initial reaction to Penn St. QB Drew Allar suffering a season ending leg injury was “Great…now his draft stock will fall and the Steelers will pat themselves on the back, expecting fans to be in awe of their genius for picking him in the 3rd or 4th round 🤦🏻♂️.” Anyway, the James Franklin Era in Happy Valley is over, which is a bit shocking since the Nittany Lions were a Top 5 team not long ago.
I guess the Indiana Hoosiers might actually be legit. Too bad their head coach will probably bolt for “greener pastures” by the end of the year.
Are my Steelers peeps still upset they let Justin Fields walk??
The undefeated Aggies have really snuck up on everyone. After six good but certainly not transcendent seasons with Jimbo Fisher at the helm, the Aggies made a change last year and brought in Mike Elko from Duke. He went 8-5 a season ago, and his team was ranked in the Top 20 in most preseason polls, but I don’t believe anybody expected A&M to be in the mix with Alabama, Georgia, and LSU for the SEC crown. Conversely, the Razorbacks are 2-4 and already fired their head coach. Bobby Petrino has been handed the interim gig, which is kind of like casting Charlie Sheen as the lead in a community theater project. You know he brings a certain level of talent & experience, but are understandably nervous about possible collateral damage. I don’t expect an upset, but I feel like Petrino might know enough Jedi mind tricks to make sure his team doesn’t get embarrassed. I still think that means a 10-15 point loss though. Zach likes A&M’s defense to hold the line.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Zach’s Pick: Texas A&M
Texas Tech (-11.5) at Arizona State
I ranked the unbeaten Red Raiders 14th in the preseason and made note of three important games. In the first of those Tech beat the snot out of Utah by more than three touchdowns. This is the second big one, and the 4-2 Sun Devils have to be asking themselves alot of questions after a beatdown by…Utah. I believe the home field helps State a little bit, but I remain high on Tech and foresee a two TD victory. Zach doesn’t think it’ll be much of a contest and likes the visiting favorites to win big.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Zach’s Pick: Texas Tech
Southern California at Notre Dame (-7.5)
Wow, this old rivalry has really lost its mojo, huh?? Notre Dame leads the all time series 50-37-5 and has won six of the past seven meetings. Citizens of The Manoverse are aware by now that The Irish were my preseason #1, but once they lost their first two games that blew up in my face. They’ve since won four in a row though, so good for them. The Trojans are 5-1, with only a last second field goal by Illinois blemishing their record, which makes the odds for this game feel disrespectful. I sense a hard fought battle on the horizon. Low scoring. Lots of defense. Field position. Time of possession. Perhaps a turnover or two or three. A score of 20-ish to 16-ish. I don’t know who wins, but it’ll be by less than a touchdown. Zach believes Notre Dame was always overrated, while USC is playing at a higher level than they have in several years.
My Pick: USC
Zach’s Pick: USC
Utah (-3.5) at BYU
When we think of football hotbeds places like Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania spring to mind. Most folks probably don’t think of The Beehive State, home of the Sundance Film Festival, The Osmond Family, the Great Salt Lake, and Wilford Brimley, as a place to find great football. However, right now, it is where you’ll see two Top 25 teams with a combined record of 11-1, and the Utes shouldn’t feel bad about losing to Texas Tech. BYU’s double OT triumph over Arizona might’ve been the best game of them all last weekend, but it makes me wonder if they can rise to that level again so soon, especially freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Don’t miss this game on Saturday night if you can possibly set other things aside for a few hours. Zach thinks the Cougars are better defensively and that’ll be the difference.
My Pick: Utah
Zach’s Pick: BYU
Houston at Seattle (-3.5)
The Texans are the AFC’s forgotten team. At 2-3 they sit below the Jags and the surprising Colts, who’ve been the talk of the NFL, but are better than the Titans, who just fired their head coach. It’s going to be tough for Houston to position themselves as a playoff contender, but there is still plenty of time. Conversely, the Seahawks are in a much better position in their division but can’t afford to take their foot off the gas. There’s just too much competition. The home field is big in this one, and I think the fans will show up & show out for the MNF audience. Zach predicts a Seattle victory on the strength of their special teams.
Update: I’ve already lost interest in the MLB Playoffs. Perhaps a Tigers or Mariners World Series appearance could pull me back in. In other news, hockey has started, which is even less appealing to me than another Dodgers championship. On the bright side, my six fantasy football teams are a collective 22-7, which is probably as good as things have gone for me in 25 years of playing fantasy sports. I can’t help but brace myself for the moment everything falls apart, which, sadly, is kind of how my life goes. At any rate, let’s make some picks.
Observations from Last Week:
Kudos to the 49ers, who won on Thursday night despite a rash of injuries. Don’t be surprised if Mac Jones gets another opportunity to be a starting QB in the NFL.
Are we still handing QB Arch Manning the Heisman?? Drafting him #1 overall?? How bout Drew Allar?? 😂
Kind of a weird weekend for me. WV played on Friday night (my power went out & I missed most of the 2nd half). Both Marshall & the Steelers had a bye.
“I thought, after scoring, a lot of times it takes a lot of energy. So I always thought I had done enough just by getting to the end zone. There was nothing left to do but to hand the ball to the ref and put six points on the board.” – Barry Sanders
Both of my Super Bowl picks…Buffalo & Philadelphia…lost for the first time, but I remain undeterred. They’ll figure things out by January.
My Season: 21-15
Zach’s Season: 12-24
Ohio State (-13.5) at Illinois
The undefeated Buckeyes remain the #1 team in the land, with no one really posing much of a challenge since Texas on opening weekend. The 5-1 Illini have only a 53 point beatdown at the hands of Iowa St. blemishing their record. It’s a home game for the underdogs, which may give them a puncher’s chance. However, as much as I’d love to see a thrilling nailbiter decided in the waning seconds of the 4th quarter, I don’t believe that’ll happen. Zach’s disdain for Ohio St. is well documented, so his choice isn’t surprising.
My Pick: Ohio St.
Zach’s Pick: Illinois
Alabama (-6.5) at Missouri
The 4-1 Tide seem to have steadied the ship after a season opening loss at Florida St. The undefeated Tigers are flying way under the radar. Some might point to their relatively weak schedule thus far, but wins over Kansas & South Carolina shouldn’t be overlooked. That being said, Missouri has an opportunity to make a statement and secure a signature victory that could define their season. Meanwhile, ‘Bama can’t make us completely forget that some were questioning the future of head coach Kalen DeBoer not that long ago. Alabama has won six consecutive games in this rivalry, dating back to 1978, including a 34-0 shutout last season when Missouri was also a ranked team. I’d love to be wrong, but there’s really no reason to believe in a legit chance for an upset. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Alabama
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Indiana at Oregon (-14)
Credit where it is due…the unbeaten Hoosiers have been impressive, especially the last few weeks in victories over Illinois & Iowa. They are also coming off of a bye, which feels important. However, the 5-0 Ducks have been a buzzsaw. Not only did they go into Happy Valley and take down Penn St. in double OT, but they just had their bye week as well. These should be two healthy, well rested teams at full throttle. I’d be pleasantly surprised by an upset, but don’t think that’ll happen. Can Indiana keep it close though?? If they were at home I might lean in that direction, but in the unfriendly environment of Eugene, OR it feels like a high mountain to climb. Conversely, Zach really likes Indiana and feels like they are atleast talented & well coached enough to remain competitive.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Indiana
Oklahoma vs. Texas (-10.5)
It’s the 121st edition of the Red River Shootout, a rivalry that dates back to 1900. Texas leads the series 64–51–5, with each team trading wins back & forth the last several years. The shine seems to be wearing off Longhorns’ QB Arch Manning, who certainly hasn’t resembled his Uncle Peyton or even Uncle Eli while leading his team to a pedestrian 3-2 record. However, the unbeaten Sooners have quarterback issues of their own, with starter John Mateer having recently had surgery on his throwing hand. The injury came at a good time, as Oklahoma had a bye week then played with their backup QB against an overmatched MAC opponent, but this is different. They’re not defeating Texas without Mateer, and even if he returns there’s no way he’ll be 100%. It’s unfortunate, but sometimes that’s just life. Zach predicts a low scoring, run heavy game, with the underdogs figuring out a way to get it done.
My Pick: Texas
Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma
Detroit at Kansas City (-3)
Some folks were starting to lose faith in the Lions after a season opening loss at Green Bay, but now they are 4-1 and once again perceived as one of the best teams in the NFC. Conversely, the once mighty Chiefs are 2-3 after a Monday night loss at Jacksonville, and everyone is wondering what in the world is going on. No one is going to convince me that the absence of WR Rashee Rice has been THAT impactful, and I won’t even lay too much of the blame at the feet of Taylor Swift, whose new album apparently contains a song about Travis Kelce’s junk. Anyway, this game feels like an important moment. Will Detroit continue their winning ways and put another nail in KC’s coffin, or will Andy Reid remind his team just who in the hell they are?? Has Swift really Yoko Ono-ed her fiancé’s career?? Should Detroit be the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite?? We’ll know more on Sunday night, when I think we’ll see a mild “upset”. But is it really an upset?!?!?? Zach foresees a tight battle, perhaps even overtime. Ultimately he thinks the Lions will find a way to prevail.
We’re going to set the NFL aside for a couple of weeks and focus on college football as their regular season wraps up. This is Rivalry Week, and there will be games for three straight days, in addition to all the lovely Thanksgiving festivities. Last week’s experiment was…interesting, as Zach was 2-3 while I was 4-1, but now we are back to regularly scheduled foolishness. Happy Thanksgiving Manoverse. May your turkey be moist, your pumpkin pie be served with ample whipped topping, and all your Black Friday shopping be done online. God bless America, what remains of her after decades of leftist insanity.
My Season: 47-31
Zach’s Season: 38-40
Mississippi (-13) at Mississippi State
They call it The Egg Bowl, and it’s been fairly even in recent years, with both teams being 3-3 since 2017. The 9-2 Rebels have only lost to Georgia & Alabama, and there’s no shame in that. Conversely, the Bulldogs are 5-6 and need a victory to become bowl eligible. Unfortunately for them I don’t believe that’ll happen. This is a Thanksgiving Night game on ESPN, and Zach likes Coach Lane Kiffin to lead his team to a big win.
My Pick: Ole Miss
Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss
Wisconsin (-2) at Minnesota
This is the most played rivalry at the FBS level, with 132 games dating back to 1890. Since 1948 they’ve battled for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. The series is tied 62-62-8, with the 5-6 Golden Gophers winning three of the last five meetings after the 6-5 Badgers had won 14 consecutive from 2004-17. It hasn’t been a great season for either school, but with the home field and needing a victory to become bowl eligible I believe the underdogs will score a mild upset. Zach is predicting the stereotypical low scoring, hard hitting, Big Ten slobberknocker, and he likes the Badgers to grind out a tight win on the road.
My Pick: Minnesota
Zach’s Pick: Wisconsin
Washington State at Washington (-15)
If you’re wondering why they call this game The Apple Cup, it’s because the state of Washington is the leading domestic producer of apples (as well as hops, pears, blueberries, and spearmint oil). The 5-6 Cougars had lost six straight games before beating Colorado last weekend and need one more win to secure bowl eligibility. Conversely, the undefeated Huskies have already earned a spot in the Pac 12 title game, but have their eye on an even bigger prize. I don’t know if the playoff committee still yammers on about “style points” (I think the phrase has been replaced by the more erudite “body of work”), but I’m quite sure it’s still a thing. The home favorites haven’t really blown anyone out since September, so the points concern me a bit, but with so much at stake I think Washington takes care of business. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
Florida State (-6.5) at Florida
The big news out of Tallahassee is a season ending leg injury to QB Jordan Travis. Does that kill their playoff dream?? Maybe, maybe not. The 5-6 Gators need a victory to become bowl eligible, but they’ve lost four in a row. The Swamp is a formidable home field, and being led by a backup quarterback isn’t ideal, but I think the unbeaten Seminoles figure out a way to remain so for now. Zach isn’t confident about FSU’s playoff future, but believes they’ll be inspired to play hard in honor of their fallen signal caller.
My Pick: Florida St.
Zach’s Pick: Florida St.
Alabama (-14.5) at Auburn
The Iron Bowl is typically one of the most anticipated games of the season, and even though neither team has as much at stake as in the past it’s still amongst the fiercest rivalries in collegiate athletics. The 6-5 Tigers got throttled by New Mexico St. in their last game, while the 10-1 Tide, as always, are never out of the playoff discussion. I would love to see a huge upset, but certainly wouldn’t put money on it. That being said, I think the home underdogs keep it respectable. Zach thinks ‘Bama’s playoff hopes are legit and doesn’t believe this game will be a challenge.
My Pick: Auburn
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Oregon State at Oregon (-14)
I don’t give a damn what killjoy leftists say, I’m still calling it the Civil War. Sadly, after 127 games dating back to 1894, this rivalry will become yet another victim of conference realignment when the Ducks move to the Big Ten next year. The 8-3 Beavers have had a solid season, but all three losses have been by a combined 8 points. One wonders what might’ve been had the ball bounced differently a few times. At this stage I don’t think the 10-1 home favorites will screw up their playoff chances, but they need to stay healthy for the Pac 12 title game. Oregon should emerge victorious, but it won’t be a double digit win. Zach agrees.
My Pick: Oregon St.
Zach’s Pick: Oregon St.
Ohio State at Michigan (-4)
Once again this one matters a whole hell of alot. Conference title opportunity on the line. Major playoff impact. I’m kind of jealous of fans who support teams who play games with meaning. Both teams are undefeated. The winner will meet (and probably defeat) Iowa in the Big Ten championship game, thereby securing a playoff berth. The Wolverines have won the last two meetings after the Buckeyes had dominated for eight consecutive years. The Big House in Ann Arbor is an imposing environment, but with head coach Jim Harbaugh suspended I feel like the underdogs will find a way to get it done on the road. Zach has very strong feelings about the Buckeyes, their coach, the university, and the entire state of Ohio. He isn’t very happy with the NCAA & their witch hunt of Jim Harbaugh either. Having said that, he doesn’t have positive vibes about his Wolverines overcoming all the crap that has been tossed at them.
According to the CFP Committee Ohio St. is now #1, which probably doesn’t sit well with the folks down in Georgia. I’ve always believed in the philosophy of “Nature Boy” Ric Flair: to be The Man you’ve got to beat The Man. I didn’t see the show, but I assume the powers-that-be may have watched the Bulldogs let Auburn hang around awhile several weeks ago and also got all tingly watching the Buckeyes beat Penn St. Whatever the details, I’m sure they somehow justified their decision to the talking heads. None of it really matters at this point, although the playoff picture is slowly coming into focus. At any rate, I was 4-1 last week, while Zach was 3-2. There are some potentially important matchups this week, atleast on paper. Hopefully they’ll live up to expectations. We’ll see.
My Season: 35-23
Zach’s Season: 28-30
Notre Dame (-3) at Clemson
What in the hell has happened to the Tigers?? I didn’t expect that they’d compete for a playoff spot this season, but neither did I forsee them entering November at 4-4 with back-to-back losses, including one to NC St. Meanwhile, the 7-2 Irish might still be thinking months from now how an inexplicable loss to Louisville cost them a playoff opportunity. Neither team is elite, but both are still good enough to draw interest. Can the negative energy be galvanized by Dabo Swinney into enough motivation to pull off an upset?? How crazy is it that Clemson winning a game at home would be an upset?? Zach thinks that Coach Swinney has perhaps lost a bit of his team, but doesn’t believe it’s a long term problem. He agrees that we’ll see just enough of that old magic emerge for an upset to occur.
My Pick: Clemson
Zach’s Pick: Clemson
Oklahoma (-6) at Oklahoma State
Is this the last hurrah for Bedlam?? The 7-1 Sooners will be moving to the SEC next year because the NCAA clearly doesn’t give a damn about tradition & common sense anymore. Will the 6-2 Cowboys view it as a final opportunity for bragging rights?? The visiting favorites got outyanked at Kansas last week, while the home underdogs are riding a four game winning streak. This will be an emotional back & forth battle, and I think we’ll see a surprising result. Conversely, Zach thinks the Sooners will be ticked off after getting beat a week ago and will take out their frustration on their in-state rival.
My Pick: Oklahoma St.
Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma
Washington (-3.5) at Southern California
Let’s be honest…other than beating Oregon at home the undefeated Huskies haven’t really been challenged. As a matter of fact, it has occasionally felt like they’ve played down to the level of their competition in games that were closer than expected. Conversely, the 7-2 Trojans have come up short in two huge games that they probably should’ve won. It just seems like certain parties at USC aren’t “all in” and might be focused on other things. I think the underdogs will give it all they’ve got, but the visitors are so close to securing a playoff berth I don’t believe they’ll get caught by surprise…atleast not this week. Zach thinks we’re in for a shootout…first team to 60 wins!!
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
LSU at Alabama (-3)
Does this battle have as much cachet as it used to?? Maybe not. However, the 6-2 Bayou Bengals have won three in a row, while the 7-1 Tide is just sitting there in the Top 10 waiting for a couple of dominoes to fall so they can claim the playoff berth they believe is owed them. Both teams are coming out of a bye week, so they should be well-rested & healthy. ‘Bama gets the requisite home field bump, but I smell an upset and a changing of the guard at the top of the SEC West. Zach forsees another low scoring defensive battle, which is kind of the norm in this rivalry. He’s a Coach Saban fanboy almost as much as he loves Michigan.
My Pick: LSU
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Miami vs. Kansas City (-2.5)
For the first time ever the NFL is playing a game in Germany. It’s a 9:30am kickoff on NFL Network here in The States, with a matchup worthy of getting out of bed to watch. Some folks are seeing chinks in the armor of the 6-2 Chiefs, which is understandable given a surprising loss at Denver last week. Meanwhile, the prolific Miami offense has scored less than 31 points in only one game thus far. At 6-2 the Dolphins lead their division but can’t afford to ease up now. Most fans are likely expecting or atleast hoping for a shootout that’ll pad the fantasy numbers of countless couch GMs across the country. That would indeed be fun to watch, but every time that kind of game looks to be on the horizon it rarely seems to actually happen. We’ll probably see a 28-24 type of game, with penalties & turnovers playing a factor. Reports of KC’s demise are far too premature, but right now I think Miami is the hotter team. Zach concurs.
First of all, I am making an unprecedented executive decision. Zach & I both chose Penn St. to atleast cover the 7 & a half point spread against Ohio St. The Nittany Lions scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left to draw within eight points. At that point they decided to go for a two point conversion that failed. They were going to need to recover an onside kick to have a chance, which didn’t work out. Had that been successful they would have needed a touchdown & extra point to win. However, if they would’ve simply kicked the extra point with 29 seconds remaining they would’ve needed that same thing, only for a tie & to force overtime. Essentially going for two only served to screw anyone for whom that one point (really a half point) might’ve been important. Since we do not promote gambling here 😉, have no money on the line, and both of us had the same pick, I am rewarding us with a win. At the end of the day that means I was 4-1, while Zach was 2-3. Let’s see what we can do this week.
My Season: 31-22
Zach’s Season: 25-28
Oregon (-7) at Utah
The 6-1 Utes got a rather significant victory over USC last weekend, while the 6-1 Ducks rebounded nicely from their only loss of the season. Both teams are still in the thick of the PAC 12 title hunt, with Utah getting an opportunity in a few weeks to do what Oregon couldn’t do – defeat Washington. As for this game, ESPN’s Gameday will be on site, adding a layer of excitement & relevance, as if a Top 15 matchup needed extra juice. Before the season I had Oregon ranked 20th & Utah 11th, but that was contingent upon the leadership of QB Cameron Rising. Unfortunately the young man’s recovery from a knee injury has been slower than expected and he’s going to be redshirted. Obviously the home underdogs in this matchup have fared just fine without him, but in a game of this caliber I simply have more confidence in the visiting team’s signal caller, Bo Nix. Zach forsees a shootout, but also has more confidence in Oregon’s offense.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida
It’s a “neutral site” game in Jacksonville, which is about 275 miles closer to Gainesville, FL than Athens, GA. The Bulldogs have been in a couple of competitive games but remain unbeaten, while the Gators are 5-2 and still riding the roller coaster. Is it a trap game for the defending National Champions?? Is the Florida-Georgia line a bit too much?? I say no to both questions. Zach doesn’t believe Georgia is as good as they were the past couple of years, and points out that the absence of tight end Brock Bowers is significant. At the end of the day he thinks they’ll snag another win, but believes Florida will keep it close.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Florida
NY Jets (-3) vs. NY Giants
It’s the Battle of New York…or New Jersey. Either way, there is no home field advantage. Credit to the Jets for not folding like a cheap suit after Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury less than a minute into the season. At 3-3 they are atleast remaining respectable, although I don’t believe they’ll be a playoff team. Conversely, even though they’ve only won one less game, it already feels like a lost season for the 2-5 Giants. I don’t believe it’ll be a particularly compelling matchup, with the Jets winning by a touchdown. Zach concurs, opining that the game will likely be a snoozefest.
My Pick: NY Jets
Zach’s Pick: NY Jets
Baltimore (-8.5) at Arizona
The 5-2 Ravens lead their division, but have a very small margin of error. The 1-6 Cards may be getting QB Kyler Murray back soon, but not quite yet. Even when that happens I’m not sure it’ll make much of a difference. I thought a few months ago that they’d improve upon last season’s abysmal 4-13 record, but now I’m not confident they’ll reach that goal. As much as I’d love to see Baltimore lose I don’t think that’s what’ll happen. Zach predicts an epic five TD beat down.
My Pick: Baltimore
Zach’s Pick: Baltimore
Las Vegas at Detroit (-8.5)
It seems like some folks might be ready to jump off the Detroit bandwagon after they had their ass handed to them last week, but not me. They still hold a comfortable lead in their division, and we can’t forget the season opening upset of KC. Conversely, the 3-4 Raiders are going nowhere fast. This is Josh McDaniels’ second head coaching gig, and it’s clear that he’s a much better offensive coordinator. In my mind the only question about Monday night is whether or not the Lions will go full throttle enough to cover the points, and ultimately I believe they will. Zach has no hesitation in predicting the home team will win easily.
At this point we’re starting to separate the contenders from the pretenders, especially in college. As conference games begin to dominate the schedule and divisional battles in the NFL heat up the bigger picture will come into focus. Having said that, it’s way too soon to get cocky if you’re favorite team(s) have gotten off to a hot start, and much too early to give up if they’ve stumbled a bit. Both of us were 5-2 last weekend, which is pretty great, but now the real fun begins.
My Season: 20-10
Zach’s Season: 18-12
Cincinnati at BYU (-2.5)
I had to double check to see if both teams had already joined the Big 12 or if that was happening next year. Conference realignment is such bullsquat. Anyway, both did join the conference this season, and right now the 3-1 Cougars have a slight edge over the 2-2 Bearcats. In general I feel like Cincy gets way too much credit for the one year they were really good and somehow snuck into the playoff before being owned by Alabama. Conversely, BYU has a much longer tradition of being a very solid high level program. This is a late Friday night kickoff on ESPN, and I think the home field holds serve, with the favorites covering in a tight contest. Zach foresees a high scoring affair with the home team scoring late to secure the victory.
My Pick: BYU
Zach’s Pick: BYU
Texas A&M (-6.5) vs. Arkansas
So far Jimbo Fisher’s team is on pace to vastly improve on last season’s horrific record, but the job is far from finished. This is a neutral site game at the Palace in Dallas, with a Noon kickoff on the SEC Network. The 2-2 Razorbacks have lost two consecutive games and would love to stop any potential free fall. They are the sort of team that wins 7-9 games in good years while never being in the conference title or CFP conversation, but seem to always play one really great game, upsetting an opponent they weren’t supposed to beat. Will that happen against A&M?? I don’t think so. Conversely, Zach believes Arkansas’ secret weapon is their strength & conditioning program and thinks that’ll be a factor in upsetting an A&M team that’s really not that good.
My Pick: Texas A&M
Zach’s Pick: Arkansas
Georgia (-14.5) at Auburn
Auburn hasn’t beaten Georgia since 2017 when the Bulldogs subsequently avenged that defeat by beating the Tigers in the SEC title game. The favorites are 4-0 and have scored 45+ points in three of those games. Meanwhile, the home team is 3-1 but just got shellacked at Texas A&M. I would love to see a really fun, competitive game Saturday afternoon, but I don’t think that’ll happen. Zach doesn’t believe Georgia is as dominant as they’ve been the last couple of years and thinks they’ll get off to a slow start. Ultimately though, he sees them pulling away late for a big win.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Pittsburgh (-3) at Houston
We normally don’t pick Steelers games because both Zach & I are honest about our bias. I’ve been cheering for the black & gold since the days of Terry Bradshaw & The Steel Curtain. Zach is much younger but grew up rooting for Hines Ward, Big Ben, & Troy Polamalu. We are well aware that our team is in a struggle phase at the moment and trust me…we have lots of opinions. Having said that, I’m confident the favorites will get the job done on the road. The Texans are trending upward and will be a legit playoff contender in a year or two, but I don’t believe they’re there quite yet. Rookie quarterback CJ Stroud looks like he’ll be good down the road, but this weekend I think the Steelers defense will eat him alive. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Pittsburgh
Zach’s Pick: Pittsburgh
Seattle at NY Giants (1.5)
I’m not sure what to make of this one. On one hand, it’s normal that the 1-2 Giants would get the home field bump, but it’s only half of what it would normally be, which is showing respect toward Seattle. However, the mere fact that the 2-1 Seahawks aren’t favored at all seems disrespectful to me. I’ve watched both teams play, and I think Seattle is flat out a better team. I believe they’ll win, and it won’t be particularly close. Zach has a very low opinion of the Giants and agrees that the visiting underdogs will win big on Monday night.
The only thing that could push Deion Sanders off the front page of sports news sites is a season ending injury to Aaron Rodgers. That’s the bad news. Good news?? Well, after a week long standoff Disney & Spectrum reached an agreement, so I got my ESPN back just in time to watch the entirety of Rodgers’ much anticipated Jets’ career, which lasted all of four plays. Perhaps karma is punishing New Yorkers for the absolute nut jobs they elect to positions of power. Anyway, I had a great week, going 4-1, while Zach slipped a little, going 1-4. That being said, we’re both off to solid, above .500 starts to the season, so we’ll see if we can keep that going.
My Season: 13-5
Zach’s Season: 10-8
Army at Texas-San Antonio (-9)
The Black Knights are 1-1 after mauling FCS Delaware St. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners are also 1-1, rebounding from a close season opening loss to get by in-state rival Texas St. last weekend. This is a Friday night game and I have plans, so I’m not sure how much of it I’ll get to see. UTSA won the matchup on the road in overtime a year ago, but with the home field I’m confident they’ll win much more comfortably. Zach doesn’t believe Army will win, but despite tweaking their offensive playbook from the traditional flexbone triple option to a more shotgun based attack he still thinks the visitors will control time of possession & slow the hand down. If UTSA’s offense isn’t on the field as much they’ll score less points & are less likely to cover. That’s the theory anyway…we’ll see how it pans out.
My Pick: UTSA
Zach’s Pick: Army
San Diego State at Oregon State (-24.5)
The Aztecs are 1-1 after losing big to UCLA. The 2-0 Beavers have barely broken a sweat thus far. The points are a bit much, but it’d be a huge statement victory for the home team to win by nearly four touchdowns. Conversely, the points are enough for Zach to go against the grain. He feels like the home team will win, but not by more than three TDs.
My Pick: Oregon St.
Zach’s Pick: San Diego St.
Tennessee (-6.5) at Florida
Before the season began I predicted success for the Vols, but had no expectations that they’d equal last year’s 11-2 record & Top 10 ranking. They’re 2-0 and haven’t allowed more than 13 points from an opponent, but now the real work begins. The Gators are 1-1, but feasted FCS McNeese St. a week ago. It’s a pretty big game because the winner can get on with SEC business and try to climb to the top of the standings, while the loser could be negatively impacted to the point that we look back & view this as the moment their season imploded. I’m far too lackadaisical to do actual research, but I will assume that being underdogs in The Swamp has been rare for the home team thru the years. I think Florida is a team in transition, and I don’t know how patient the folks in Gainesville will be with second year head coach Billy Napier. He could solidify some job security with a big upset, but I don’t believe that’ll happen. Zach agrees with me that Tennessee is good not great, but thinks they’ll win by a touchdown.
My Pick: Tennessee
Zach’s Pick: Tennessee
Washington at Denver (-3.5)
The Commanders (for now) got off to a good start with a victory over Arizona, while the Broncos fell to the Raiders. My lack of faith in Denver is reinforced, atleast for the moment, and Washington looks to be as tediously solid as I thought. You’re going to hear a lot about the challenges of playing in the higher elevation of the Rocky Mountains, but I’m not sure that’s really such a big deal. I don’t think we should read too much into Week 1, but I’ve seen enough to stick with my preseason expectations. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Washington
Zach’s Pick: Washington
NY Jets at Dallas (-7.5)
This game seemed a whole lot more interesting a few days ago, but that was before the Cowboys dominated their season opener & the Jets lost Aaron Rodgers four plays into theirs. My predictions that the Cowboys would have a losing record & head coach Mike McCarthy will lose his job look rather shaky at the moment, although I still believe Philadelphia wins the division. Injuries are always a factor in torpedoing preseason notions, but after all the hype & expectation it is mind boggling to see the Jets’ entire year implode so quickly & in such monumental fashion. Zach doesn’t think the Jets need to be all doom & gloom. He believes QB Zach Wilson will be okay and defense & special teams will win some games for them. He’s not all-in on the Cowboys & thinks their offense isn’t that good.
Y’all, the season hasn’t even begun yet and I’m already sick of hearing about conference realignment. Many years ago, when such insanity was a fairly new trend, I offered up my own thoughts about how I’d reorganize college football. Perhaps I’ll revisit the concept because I believe some of my ideas were rather solid.
Anyhow, that’s a discussion for another day, because no matter how irritated I become about the stupidity surrounding college athletics the truth is for the next few months I’ll be glued to my television every Saturday watching hours & hours of glorious gridiron action. I will not let university suits or TV execs steal my joy. So, per tradition that stretches back to atleast 2009, let’s see if we can forecast with any degree of reasonable accuracy how that final poll will look on January 9, 2024. This will be the final year for the four team playoff, as it expands to 12 teams next season. I’m still not sure how I feel about that, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.
25 Fresno State
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: 9/2 @ Purdue, 10/13 @ Utah St., 11/4 vs. Boise St.
The truth is all of the “big” teams in the “power” conferences will do their fair share of knocking each other out. That means that teams from the “other” conferences have an opportunity to sneak into the polls and receive some love if they have double digit wins and battle for their conference title. I’ve always been intrigued by Fresno and enjoy watching their late night games. I see no reason why they can’t match last year’s success, especially if they come out of the gate strong by going to West Lafayette and upsetting the Boilermakers.
24 Troy
Last Season: 12-2
Key Games: 9/9 @ Kansas St., 9/16 vs. James Madison, 11/2 vs. South Alabama
Most other polls will have Tulane in this spot, but I tend to go against the grain. The Trojans coasted to the Sun Belt title a year ago and return 13 starters from that team. I don’t believe they’ll go into Manhattan, KS and beat the Wildcats, but wouldn’t be shocked if they win every other game on the schedule.
23 Oregon State
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/29 vs. Utah, 10/14 vs. UCLA, 11/24 @ Oregon
It’s a damn shame that the PAC 12 is imploding, but the Beavers will land on their feet in the restructured league. For now though, the mission is to build on a ten win season, which concluded with beating the snot out of Florida in the Las Vegas Bowl. I foresee atleast one huge upset this year.
22 Tennessee
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 9/30 vs. South Carolina, 10/21 @ Alabama, 11/18 vs. Georgia
The Vols pose a lot of questions. They defeated LSU & Alabama last season, and pulverized Clemson in the Orange Bowl. However, they barely got by Pitt in overtime, lost at Georgia, and just didn’t show up in a 25 point loss at South Carolina in which the Gamecocks scored 63 points. Five Tennessee starters were chosen in the NFL Draft, including two wide receivers, a mammoth offensive tackle, and their starting quarterback. The QB situation shouldn’t be an issue though, as former starter Joe Milton received significant playing time a year ago and started the last few games due to injury. I think they’ll have a successful season, but it’ll be damn near impossible to equal the achievements of 2022.
21 Wisconsin
Last Season: 7-6
Key Games: 9/22 @ Purdue, 10/14 vs. Iowa, 10/28 vs. Ohio St.
This one is giving me a bit of anxiety. The Big Ten is deep & competitive, and the Badgers haven’t been all that impressive the past few years. That being said, I’ve always had a soft spot for the type of throwback smashmouth football played in Madison. I think they can get to nine wins and snag a spot on the back end of the rankings.
Atleast the PAC 12 might go out with a bang. No honest “expert” can accurately predict which one of a half dozen teams will emerge as the champion. That should provide plenty of late Saturday night entertainment in the next few months. QB Bo Nix could put himself in the Heisman conversation if the revamped offensive line protects him. A reconstructed defense via the transfer portal needs to kick it up a notch to get the Ducks back to ten win territory.
19 Texas A&M
Last Season: 5-7
Key Games: 10/7 vs. Alabama, 10/14 @ Tennessee, 10/28 vs. South Carolina
Is Jimbo Fisher on the hot seat?? After signing a ten year $75 million contract in 2018, A&M extended him in 2021. It’s a bold strategy that hasn’t paid dividends on the field, with Fisher having his worst year yet in College Station a season ago. The Aggies had a six game losing skid in October/November, but finished by upsetting LSU and likely costing them a playoff berth. Was 2022 an anomaly?? Can this team rebound in a big way and save their coach’s job, if it is indeed on shaky ground?? The talent is allegedly there, and now it’s time to see results. Jimbo hails from my hometown and we graduated from the same high school, so I’m rooting for him to succeed.
The Big Ten is tough. At first glance the Hawkeyes might only be the 6th or 7th best team, which could make it difficult for them to finish in the Top 25. Last season Iowa’s defense was stout, allowing only 13 points/game, but the offense struggled, scoring over 30 points just once. Enter Cade McNamara, a former Michigan QB. McNamara will be behind center in Iowa City with two seasons of eligibility. Is that enough to propel an anemic offense into conference title contention?? We’ll see.
In a world full of Tigers, Wildcats, Eagles, and Bulldogs one must give a tip of the cap to the Roadrunners. However, not only do they have a cool nickname, but UTSA is a pretty good football team. They are 23-5 in the past two seasons and have 16 returning starters on both sides of the ball, including quarterback & C-USA MVP Frank Harris. UTSA moves to the AAC this year, which puts them on a collision course with defending conference champion Tulane. That might be one of the better matchups on Thanksgiving Weekend.
16 Air Force
Last Season: 10-3
Key Games: 9/15 vs. Utah St., 10/21 @ Navy, 11/24 @ Boise St.
The Falcons won the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy last season by defeating both Army & Navy, but didn’t fare as well in-conference after losing three Mountain West games. They have to remedy that in 2023 by winning games at Boise and at home against Utah St.
The ACC is probably the next domino to fall, but it will remain intact for another year and likely produce some rather decent football games. The Tar Heels fell short in both the conference title game & the Holiday Bowl a season ago, but with potential first round draft pick Drake Maye returning at quarterback there is reason to believe that they’ll be atleast as good, and potentially better if the defense rises to the occasion.
14 Texas
Last Season: 8-5
Key Games: 9/9 @ Alabama, 9/23 @ Baylor, 11/4 vs. Kansas St.
Who will start under center for the Longhorns?? Will sophomore Quinn Ewers hold onto the gig, or will much ballyhooed freshman Arch Manning overtake him at some point?? Either way there seems to be a level of legit optimism in the Lone Star State we haven’t seen for quite some time. This will be the final year in the Big 12 before moving to the SEC, so perhaps they’ll make hay while the sun shines. Don’t be shocked if the ‘Horns march into Tuscaloosa in early September and upset ‘Bama.
The Seminoles haven’t received this much preseason hype in several years. That’s what a ten win season will accomplish. Can they sustain that level of success?? The out-of-conference schedules looks a bit dicey, but they’ll be in the ACC title hunt. A late September battle in Death Valley looms large, although I’m not prepared to predict an upset.
12 Notre Dame
Last Season: 9-4
Key Games: 9/23 vs. Ohio St., 10/14 vs. USC, 11/4 @ Clemson
It’s standard operating procedure for the Irish to get preseason love, whether they deserve it or not. To achieve such a lofty ranking they absolutely must pull off an upset or two, which won’t be an easy task. Head coach Marcus Freeman didn’t have a bad first season at all, but nine wins & a Gator Bowl victory is far below the standard in South Bend. As much as I loved seeing my alma mater Marshall Thundering Herd venture into hostile territory and pull off one of the biggest upsets in college football history I understand it was a one in a million twist of fate. Add to that Notre Dame having the misfortune to play Ohio St. in the opener. They won’t begin the season 0-2 again, and will probably be 4-0 before hosting the Buckeyes in a possible revenge game.
The Utes will be vying for their third consecutive (and final, with a pending move to the Big 12 on the horizon) PAC 12 title, but hope that this time it lands them in the playoff or atleast ends with a bowl victory. They’ll need to score a big upset (or two) on the road, but that seems doable under the leadership of sixth year senior QB Cam Rising. I’m not sure another conference championship or a playoff berth is in the cards, but I’m confident this will be a really fun team to watch.
10 Ohio State
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 9/23 @ Notre Dame, 10/21 vs. Penn St., 11/25 @ Michigan
Most polls will have the Buckeyes ranked in the Top 5, but I can’t go there. After appearing in the playoff 3 out of the last 4 seasons I believe they’ll fall short in 2023. Road games at The Big House and in South Bend won’t be easy, and after beating Penn St. six straight times I’m not willing to bet there’ll be a seventh. The pendulum feels like it is swinging in the Big Ten ever so slightly, with a few other teams catching up to Ohio St.
9 Alabama
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 9/9 vs. Texas, 10/7 @ Texas A&M, 11/4 vs. LSU
I know, I know. Roll Tide. Nick Saban. They always seem to reload, no matter how much production they’ve lost. However, I think replacing three first round draft picks…a Heisman Trophy winning QB, a starting running back, and the best defensive player in college football…is alot to ask. Don’t be surprised if it’s another two loss season for ‘Bama.
8 Penn State
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 9/23 vs. Iowa, 10/21 @ Ohio St., 11/11 vs. Michigan
The Nittany Lions have been decidedly uneven in nine seasons under head coach James Franklin. He’s had four 10+ win seasons, but also had four years when they didn’t get past seven victories. This feels like a pivotal moment in the Franklin Era in Happy Valley, and I think they’ll come thru. Can they go into The Horseshoe in Columbus and leave with a win?? Maybe. Hosting the Veterans Day game against Michigan will be huge and could very well decide a spot in the conference title game.
7 Washington
Last Season: 11-2
Key Games: 10/14 vs. Oregon, 11/4 @ USC, 11/11 vs. Utah
Amongst the QBs receiving preseason hype Michael Penix tends to fly under the radar, even after leading the FBS in passing yards last season & becoming Washington’s single season passing leader. That being said, defense wins championships, and the Huskies lost twice last year, despite the offense scoring 30+ points both times. Those losses cost them a chance to compete for the conference title. Can they do just a little better in 2023?? I think it’s possible.
6 Clemson
Last Season: 11-3
Key Games: 9/23 vs. Florida St., 11/4 vs. Notre Dame, 11/18 vs. North Carolina
After six consecutive playoff appearances the Tigers fell short last year, with a surprising three TD loss at Notre Dame and a one point heartbreaker at home to in-state rival South Carolina to blame. It’s not a question of whether or not they’ll be in the hunt…they will. However, with the ACC not being as respected as other conferences it doesn’t take much to dissuade the powers-that-be from including them in the post-season party. Certainly no one from Clemson can complain about being left out one time, but the question is can they make a more convincing argument this season?? It’ll be close, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see atleast one loss before Thanksgiving.
Texas & Oklahoma have always gotten most of the accolades in the Big 12, which they have now used to finagle their way into the SEC. For anyone paying attention though the Big 12 has been much deeper than those two schools and will survive just fine without them. Manhattan, KS is only the 9th largest city in the 15th smallest state in the nation, but their football team looked pretty damn impressive last year. Most of the starting offense returns, while the defense will have several new faces. At the end of the day I don’t believe the money people will allow the Big 12 to invade their playoff party again, but I think another conference title for the Wildcats is a real possibility.
4 LSU
Last Season: 10-4
Key Games: 9/3 vs. Florida St., 11/4 @ Alabama, 11/25 vs. Texas A&M
The Bayou Bengals have been a model of inconsistency in recent years. After appearing in two national title games in 2007 & 2011 (winning one championship) they fired head coach Les Miles during the 2016 season. They won another national title in 2019 with Ed Orgeron at the helm, but fired him just two years later after a second consecutive losing season. Former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly apparently thought the heat would be more tolerable in Baton Rouge and led his team to ten wins & a Top 20 ranking a season ago. Now they have eight starters returning on offense but must rebuild a defense that lost seven starting players. To put themselves in this position LSU needs to win 2 out of the 3 games noted. Can they get past Alabama in their division?? If so, can they follow up by defeating Georgia in the SEC title game, or atleast make such a strong impression that they sneak into the playoff even with a loss?? I think there’s a legit chance things could go their way.
You’re going to hear the name Caleb Williams a lot in the next few months. The defending Heisman Trophy winner is the clear favorite once again and could become only the second player to win that award twice. Don’t get it twisted though…USC is much more than Williams. They return 14 starters across the offense & defense from a squad that was 11-3 & ranked #12 in the nation. Utah beat them twice last year, and there’s no way in hell that happens again. Anything less than being undefeated will be a huge disappointment for the Trojans.
2 Georgia
Last Season: 15-0
Key Games: 9/16 vs. South Carolina, 9/30 @ Auburn, 11/18 @ Tennessee
Alabama’s dominance had grown tedious, which might eventually happen with the Georgia, but we’re not there yet. Ten former Bulldogs were selected in the NFL Draft, and that’s after 15 were drafted in 2022. Clearly they’re doing something right in Athens. Junior QB Carson Beck looks like he’ll be the guy replacing the departed Stetson Bennett, and indications are he’s more athletically gifted than his predecessor. They return 70% of last year’s production of defense (I’ll spare you a boring explanation of that statistic), despite guys like Jalen Carter & Kelee Ringo going pro. The player getting the most love, oddly enough, seems to be tight end Brock Bowers, who has drawn comparisons to the 49ers’ George Kittle. There’s no reason to believe we won’t see Georgia in the playoff vying for a third straight title, which hasn’t been done since the Minnesota Golden Gophers did it in 1934-36.
1 Michigan
Last Season: 13-1
Key Games: 9/30 @ Nebraska, 11/11 @ Penn St., 11/25 vs. Ohio St.
Upon Jim Harbaugh’s hiring as Michigan’s 20th head coach in 2015 I predicted he’d have them in playoff contention within three years. I suppose we could debate the specific parameters of contention, but the Wolverines finally got invited to the party in 2021 then returned last season. Perhaps a little behind schedule, but that’s okay. The bigger issue is that they’ve fallen short twice, to Georgia & TCU. There’s no shame in the former, but the latter, wherein a solid second half wasn’t good enough to overcome a two TD first quarter deficit, has likely haunted the guys in Ann Arbor for the past several months. Can they get over the hump?? With 13 returning starters the expectations are thru the roof. It’s pretty simple…win the games they’re supposed to win, beat Ohio St. at The Big House, and don’t stumble in the Big Ten title game. Of course they’ve done those things then fell short in The Final Four. Will this year be different?? I think it just might.
The Manofesto 