Winning & Musing…Volume 1.25

It’s time to put a bow on the football season and perhaps address one or two other issues.

It’s hard to believe that only a few weeks have passed since Ohio St. won the CFP Championship. It feels like a lifetime ago. At any rate, kudos to the Buckeyes, who blew past Tennessee, Oregon, and Texas with relative ease before mostly dominating Notre Dame in the title game, despite not even playing in the Big Ten Championship and being seeded 8th in the CFP. It was the inaugural season for the 12 team playoff, and despite my initial misgivings about that expansion I cannot deny that it was successful and solidly entertaining. I do believe the formula will eventually be tweaked a bit, but before the inevitable expansion to 16 teams I hope the powers-that-be iron out the seeding process, and really, I would love to see conference title games incorporated into the first round of the playoff. I also believe that the FBS needs to split, with the Group of Five conferences playing for their own title while the Power 4 teams do their thing. Anyway, those are rabbit holes we can dive into some other time.

Congratulations to the Philadelphia Eagles, who gave the Kansas City Chiefs a surprising Super Bowl beatdown to claim their second Lombardi Trophy in seven years and deny KC an unprecedented three-peat. My sports fandom is fueled by disdain more than I’d prefer to admit, but I don’t hold any particular ill will toward either team and therefore didn’t have a dog in the fight. I don’t even suffer from Chiefs fatigue yet, and am not all that bothered by the whole Travis Kelce/Taylor Swift situation. My only wish was for a fun, competitive contest, and in that regard the game fell woefully short. 

On the same day that Philly won the Super Bowl, legendary basketball broadcaster Hubie Brown ended his career that lasted a half century, first as a coach then as an analyst on TV. It has been well-established that I don’t pay much attention to the NBA regular season, but to the extent that I have watched games thru the years Brown has been a constant presence…a soothing, knowledgeable voice who provided insightful analysis and focused on teaching fans about the game he so clearly loves instead of trying to be the kind of personality who draws attention to themselves that has become pervasive as television grew into the dominant force in sports. ABC did a nice job of honoring 91 year old Brown during his final broadcast without disrespecting the game itself (a fairly prosaic victory for the Milwaukee Bucks over the Philadelphia 76ers).

I will not dump all over the Super Bowl halftime featuring rapper Kendrick Lamar. I don’t want to become one of those hypercritical old goats who begin every commentary with “back in my day”, so suffice to say that the show wasn’t my cup o’ tea. However, I knew that going in. I am fully aware that middle aged white guys, despite all accusations of “privilege”, are not the target demographic for much of anything. I’ll spare all of us a breakdown of why that is, and just say that I am fine with it. However, from a business perspective I would suggest to the NFL that such a prominent position should probably be occupied by a performer with much broader appeal. I am sure that there are people who enjoyed Kendrick Lamar immensely, but I don’t believe it was an impactful chunk of the viewing audience. 

After a full season of watching the NFL’s new dynamic kickoff I have to say that I don’t despise it, except for one significant issue. I hate that onside kicks have essentially been eliminated from the game, and teams can’t even declare their intention to try an onside until the 4th quarter. I don’t believe that trick plays (including a surprise onside kick) should be used recklessly, but to preclude such a possibility at all negates an intriguing layer of strategery. 

Both Zach & myself limped to the finish in our weekly picks, going 3-5 in the final week. That means I finished 56-61, while he was 55-62. It’s a rather pyrrhic victory that enforces the fact that we aren’t very good at prognosticating football games and would probably both be homeless bums if we chose to gamble with real money.

On January 8, 2018, QB Jalen Hurts was benched at halftime of college football’s national title game. Freshman Tua Tagovailoa came in and led Alabama to a comeback victory in overtime. Hurts spent the following season as Tagovailoa’s backup before transferring to Oklahoma. Seven years later Tagovailoa has spent most of his five year NFL career struggling to convince “experts” he should remain the Miami Dolphins’ starter while compiling a 38-24 record with only one postseason game. Conversely, Hurts has led the Philadelphia Eagles to two Super Bowls, winning one while being named the game’s MVP. There are alot of valuable lessons to be learned from that story.

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 19

We’re doing a very quick turnaround because college football’s semifinals begin tonight. I am a little disappointed that so much of the NFL playoff picture was cleared up this past weekend, because I had visions of total chaos that’d push us into considering a few more games. Unfortunately it wasn’t meant to be. The good news is that we both went 4-1, which means that finishing above .500 for the season is within reach. With the college playoff expanding to 12 teams and the way the schedule falls, we will not be picking the semis or the championship game, which is probably for the best. As always I would like to thank my nephew Zach for indulging me with this fun little gig every football season, and give a shout out to anyone who might actually read what is written here. I have not been as productive in 2024 as I could’ve been, and I realize that citizens of The Manoverse who aren’t football fans probably gave up on me months ago. I’ll try to do better in 2025. Happy New Year everyone, and may God bless you as we all get the opportunity to begin again.

My Season: 53-56

Zach’s Season:  52-57

Fiesta Bowl 

CFP Quarterfinal

Penn State (-10.5) vs. Boise State 

The Nittany Lions easily defeated SMU in the first round, while the Broncos had a bye. That system of seeding & byes seems flawed given the fact that Penn St. is a double digit favorite. There will be much hand wringing & consternation in the offseason by folks who essentially believe that only two conferences and maybe a half dozen other teams really matter, which is just more proof that collegiate athletics is broken. As far as this particular contest goes, despite the fact that I’ve accused Penn St. of being overrated on multiple occasions, and I am almost always rooting for the underdog, the fact is that Penn St. will likely win. The question is, can they bitch slap Boise like a few teams got beat down in Round 1?? Boise St.’s only loss was in September at Oregon by three points, so I have to believe that they can stay within ten points of Penn St. Zach thinks that there is a legit chance that Penn St.’s defense has problems stopping Heisman runner-up RB Ashton Jeanty, and doesn’t have much faith in the Nittany Lions coming thru in big games. He agrees that Boise is unlikely to win, but won’t go away quietly.

My Pick: Boise St.

Zach’s Pick: Boise St.

Peach Bowl 

CFP Quarterfinal

Texas (-12.5) vs. Arizona State 

It might be the most entertaining game of the entire tournament. Texas handled Clemson in the first round, while Arizona St. had a bye. In three previous Pac 12 seasons the Sun Devils were 14-23. Head coach Kenny Dillingham, in his second season after serving as offensive coordinator at Auburn, Florida St., & Oregon, has  led a complete turnaround in the program’s inaugural Big 12 campaign. Look, I know that Texas has two QBs and probably a bunch of other players that’ll play in the NFL soon enough. I understand that the only two losses they suffered in their first year in the SEC were to Georgia, winner of two of the past three national championships. I get it. Have you watched Arizona St. play though?? They bulldozed Iowa St. in the Big 12 title game, and their only two losses were by a combined 18 points. Would I love to see a huge upset?? Damn straight. Do I think it will happen?? I’m not holding my breath. However, I do believe it’ll be a much closer game than the “experts” predict. At the beginning of the playoff Zach predicted Arizona St. could make a run and be a serious title contender, so he’s not moving off that now.

My Pick: Arizona St.

Zach’s Pick: Arizona St.

Rose Bowl 

CFP Quarterfinal

Ohio State (-2.5) vs. Oregon

I suppose this should be considered the marquee matchup of the four. Both teams have spent time at #1 this season. The Buckeyes only two losses were to Oregon & arch rival Michigan, and the folks in Columbus were so upset about the latter that some wanted head coach Ryan Day canned. People need to get with the times though. National Championships are no longer mythical. The system is flawed, but there is a system, which means that Ohio St.’s loss to Michigan should be considered less impactful than it might’ve been a decade ago. Sure, they missed out on a conference title and a first round bye, but they are here. They beat the snot out of Tennessee in Round 1 and now everything is in front of them. Meanwhile, in their first Big Ten season the Ducks ran roughshod thru a tough schedule, including a one point October victory over Ohio St., which came down to a field goal in the final two minutes. It is quite instructive that Oregon is considered the underdog. If there is one thing I have tried to learn while doing these picks, it is that oddsmakers know things we don’t, and oftentimes they have an uncanny way of being almost exactly right. So look for the favorites to win by a field goal. Surprisingly, Zach concurs.

My Pick: Ohio St. 

Zach’s Pick: Ohio St.

Sugar Bowl

CFP Quarterfinal

Notre Dame vs. Georgia (-1.5)

Has Notre Dame been overrated?? Sure, they’re 12-1, but the most impressive wins on their resume are the season opener at Texas A&M and a home victory over Louisville. Their Round 1 domination of Indiana has been much discussed, and if you believe the Hoosiers didn’t belong in the playoff (I’m looking at you SEC sycophants) then you can’t give much credence to the Irish winning that game. Conversely, even though Georgia hasn’t been as elite as we’ve been used to the past few seasons, no one questions their seat at the table. However, with QB Carson Beck out with an elbow injury, the intrigue for this contest is turned up a notch or two. I assume Georgia would be a much bigger favorite with Beck, but the fact that they’re still favored at all either shows how much respect the Bulldogs have earned thru the years, or casts a shadow on Notre Dame’s contender status. Perhaps both. The game is being played in Atlanta, which is basically a home field for the favorites. I think we’ll see a low scoring defensive struggle, probably decided by a few special teams plays. In that scenario I believe Georgia finds a way to escape with a close win. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Georgia 

Carolina at Atlanta (-7.5)

In my season preview I predicted that winning the NFC South would be a tough grind, because that’s exactly what it has been in recent years. So here we are. The Falcons have to win, and even then may fall short of the postseason. I am a bit surprised that they benched QB Kirk Cousins in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. A bold move for sure in a tight playoff race, but whether it is wise or not remains to be seen. The Panthers have been as hapless as I knew they would be, but teams with nothing to lose and an opportunity to play spoiler can be dangerous. I don’t believe the outcome is in much doubt, but Carolina will put up a fight. Still, I look for Atlanta to cover…barely. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Atlanta

Zach’s Pick: Atlanta 

Kansas City at Denver (-10)

I know why the Broncos are favored, but it’s still a bit surprising. Having already locked up the division title and the AFC’s first round bye, the assumption is that KC will sit most of their starters. Meanwhile, the Broncos not only have the home field, but find themselves in a three team dogfight for a wildcard berth. One team will be super motivated, while the other has much bigger goals in mind. I think Denver will get the job done, but even playing with backups I can’t fathom the Chiefs going down by ten points. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Kansas City 

Zach’s Pick: Kansas City 

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-13)

The Saints just haven’t been a good team this season and probably need to consider a total rebuild. Conversely, my assessment of Baker Mayfield was inaccurate, to put it kindly. The Bucs aren’t amongst the best in the conference, but they are scrappy and could catch a playoff opponent off guard. They need to win this game to even get there, but damn…the points are a bit much. When these teams met in The Big Easy in mid-October Tampa opened up a can o’ whoopass and won by 24 points, but I think it’ll be more like 10-12 this time. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: New Orleans  

Zach’s Pick: New Orleans 

Minnesota at Detroit (-2.5)

Both teams come into the game 14-2. The winner will be crowned NFC North champs and be the top seed in that conference, earning a first round bye. The loser will drop all the way back to the #5 seed. It’s the final game of the regular season, broadcast on NBC on Sunday night. I suggest muting your television and finding the radio call. IYKYK. When these teams met in October the Lions kicked the game winning field goal with 15 seconds on the clock. Since then Detroit’s defense has been decimated by injuries, to the point that I don’t believe they can still be considered Super Bowl favorites. If I were a die hard Lions fan, head coach Dan Campbell would drive me insane. Call me old fashioned, but while his aggressiveness is entertaining, it isn’t always wise. I think he’ll do something stupid…fake punt, unnecessarily going for a two point conversion, going for it on 4th down once too often…and it’ll cost his team a division title. Vikings QB Sam Darnold gets Zach’s vote for Comeback Player of the Year, and believes the smart choice is to ride with their momentum.

My Pick: Minnesota

Zach’s Pick: Minnesota