Louisiana State University

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 8

I feel the need to be candid. There was a brief moment this past weekend when I seriously pondered the idea of ending this charade. You see, I am a person who probably takes sports a bit too seriously. Losses affect me very deeply. I do not have a wife or girlfriend. I do not have children. I do not have a lot of friends or copious amounts of discretionary cash. I enjoy simple pleasures, one of those being the success of my favorite sports teams. When my Pittsburgh Steelers, who I knew deep down in my gut months ago might be on the threshold of a downward spiral, lost on a last second field goal to the Tennessee Titans on Thursday night, I was extremely disappointed. Then Saturday came and my “other” favorite college team (the top dog being my alma mater’s Marshall Thundering Herd, who were enjoying a bye week), the Top 5 ranked WV Mountaineers, were inexplicably blasted by Texas Tech, I was devastated. To add to the frustration I am in five fantasy football leagues and am not doing well in any of them. So when the icing on the cake became yet another exasperating go round with these picks I entertained the notion of just quitting. After all, this is my blog. I write what I want, and am under no obligation to continue banging my head against a brick wall for no reason. I am not getting paid for this, as I have mentioned numerous times. But the truth is that I am generally not a quitter. The book of Proverbs tells that “Pride goes before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall. Better to be of a humble spirit with the lowly, than to divide the spoil with the proud.” The football gods have humbled me, but I will move forward. Last week I went 2-7, with a few of those losses being games where I picked the right winner but they did not cover the spread. Overall for the season I am now a horrifying 19-34. Nothing much I can say to defend that.

 

 

 

 

LSU (-3.5)        at         Texas A&M

When picking South Carolina to defeat LSU last week I did say that “LSU might have finally gotten the wake-up call they needed” when they lost to Florida the previous Saturday. I was on the right track I guess. Meanwhile, the Aggies have quietly gone 5-1 in their inaugural SEC season, with the only blemish being a narrow loss to Florida in the first week of the season. Two things jump out at me here. First of all, the game is in College Station. Secondly, it is more than possible that the Bayou Bengals could suffer the proverbial “hangover” or letdown after such a huge win last week. One must also wonder whether LSU could be looking ahead to a showdown with #1 Alabama next week. It is for these reasons that I think this’ll be a real dogfight. Which is the real LSU?? Is it the team that destroyed the Gamecocks last week, or is it the team that struggled to beat Towson and Auburn?? The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle, and that is enough for me to predict the upset. Go Aggies!!

 

 

Iowa State      at         Oklahoma State (-13.5)

I didn’t think the Cyclones stood a chance against Kansas St. last week, but even though they lost it was by less than a touchdown. Oklahoma St. has been a rather prosaic 3-2 thus far, and are very surprising favorites in this game. I understand the concept of a home field advantage, but 13.5 points?? I don’t think so. The Cowboys might win, but it’ll be much closer than that.

 

 

Nebraska (-4.5)          at         Northwestern

The race for the Big 10 title is intriguing. Two of the top teams in the conference, Ohio St. & Penn St., are both ineligible for the crown and won’t be participating in postseason play. That really opens things up for other squads. Unfortunately for these two teams they play in the other division of the Big 10, meaning the woes of Pedophile St. & Tattoo St. are meaningless because they still must contend with Iowa and Michigan to go anywhere. The Wildcats have been impressive while going 6-1, and Nebraska less so while amassing their 4-2 record. If Northwestern wants to prove that they really belong at the big table with the good teams they have to win this game. It is telling that the oddsmakers have made the Cornhuskers the favorites, because it indicates that they really aren’t buying Northwestern as legitimate contenders. Wrestling legend Ric Flair used to say “To be the man you have to beat the man”, which is true. I am going to go way out on a limb here and take Northwestern to defy the odds, beat the man, and prove that they are legit.

 

 

South Carolina           at         Florida (-3)

We all know what happened to South Carolina last week at the hands of LSU, but I think it is way too soon to count out the Gamecocks, who only lost that game by 2 points. I personally haven’t given Florida much respect this season, but they have been impressive compiling a 6-0 record and skyrocketing to 2nd in the BCS rankings, meaning that if they win out they will play for the national championship. This game is at The Swamp, which explains the 3 point spread. Actually I am surprised it isn’t bigger. This game is also a big one for coach Steve Spurrier, who I am sure everyone will remember played & coached at Florida. I just don’t believe that Spurrier will let his team lose two weeks in a row. I think RB Marcus Lattimore will have a huge game, and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is a beast who I think will be spending a lot of time in the Gators’ backfield en route to a huge South Carolina victory.

 

 

Seattle                        at                     San Francisco (-7)

Are the 4-2 Seattle Seahawks for real?? What is wrong with the 4-2 49ers?? It is fascinating that we can look at two teams with identical records thru such vastly different prisms. Much was expected from San Francisco this season, and they really haven’t delivered as fully as most thought they would. Conversely, no one expected anything from Seattle and they have over delivered in a big way. I still think Frisco is the better team and will eventually win the division easily, but Seattle might atleast remain in the discussion for a wildcard spot. As far as this particular game goes, it is the Thursday night NFL Network game, and I’d be shocked if the 49ers didn’t respond…strongly…to last weekend’s loss to the NY Giants. Seattle will suffer the classic letdown after a tremendous win over the New England Patriots and lose this game by double digits.

 

 

Washington   at         NY Giants (-7)

So far it looks like the choice of QB Robert Griffin III in the 1st round of the draft was an excellent move. I couldn’t name a single wide receiver or running back on the Redskins’ roster, but it doesn’t matter. RGIII has singlehandedly re-energized the team and its entire fanbase. Meanwhile, the defending Super Bowl champion Giants are just plodding along at 4-2, neither looking like world beaters nor totally sucking. Because Griffin had such a standout effort last week I am picking the Giants this week. Rookie QBs are nothing if not inconsistent, and I just don’t think RGIII will shine again so soon. I believe he will be neutralized by the Giants’ pass rush, led by Mathias Kiwanuka & Jason Pierre Paul, and the Giants running game will dominate the time of possession.

 

 

Arizona           at         Minnesota (-6)

Two of the most surprising teams in the NFL this season go head-to-head. The Cardinals come into this game 4-2 with a share of the lead in the NFC West. The Vikings got victimized by RGIII last Sunday but are still a respectable 4-2. I feel like this is a total pick ‘em game, but the edge comes from the rushing attack. We don’t know who’ll tote the rock for Arizona, because their RBs keep getting injured. Conversely, the Vikings can count on the reliable Adrian Petersen, who isn’t averaging big numbers in 2012 but is a steady force that enables WR Percy Harvin to get open for big plays. That’s the difference and why I am picking Minnesota.

 

 

 

Related articles

 

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 6

 

The old saying is that “close only counts in horseshoes & hand grenades”, and I am not a big believer in moral victories anyway. However, I must say that I came oh so close to going 4-3 last week but instead ended up 2-5. Usually I get myself in trouble when I pick with my heart instead of my head, but as it turns out picking the hated Hokies of Virginia Tech over the Cincinnati Bearcats was a bad idea. I was also very disappointed in the effort of Michigan St. RB La’veon Bell, a potential Heisman candidate who I thought would do some damage to Ohio St. but was instead held to a paltry 45 yards in a loss. And maybe it’s time to jump on board the Minnesota Vikings bandwagon. Of course as soon as I do that they’ll start to look like…well…the Minnesota Vikings. At any rate, for the season I am at 13-24, a deficit that cannot be made up in one week. In other words, I am like a football team that is down atleast two scores. But since I am more of a ground & pound guy instead of a run & shoot aficionado I’ll just hunker down, grind it out, and dig out of the hole one week at a time.

 

 

 

Arizona                at            Stanford (-9.5)

Stanford wasn’t even on my radar at the beginning of the season. I just figured that they’d fade a bit after losing QB Andrew Luck and a few other pieces to the NFL. Instead they have gone 3-1, complete with a victory over media darling USC. They stumbled last week at Washington, but I will assume that was just a hangover loss after the high of defeating the Trojans in the previous game. I also looked over Arizona from the outset because it usually takes Fraudriguez a couple of years to install his offensive scheme. However, the Wildcats have looked more than decent thus far in compiling a 3-2 record. This game marks the halfway point of a murderer’s row of 6 straight ranked opponents for Arizona, and I think maybe now we’ll see what we usually see in inaugural Fraudriguez seasons. Stanford may possibly be looking ahead to a matchup at Notre Dame next week, but otherwise they hold all the cards here so I am picking them to win and cover.

 

 

Navy                      at            Air Force (-8.5)

I really like watching the service academies play football. Maybe it’s the fact that they aren’t the big, athletic NFL prospects that we see on so many other teams. They are legitimate student athletes who retain the essence of what amateur sports should be. Or maybe it is the knowledge that these young men truly have a higher purpose and will all go on to do something meaningful and, to varying degrees, heroic with their lives. And I suppose it has a lot to do with the old-fashioned style of football played. Navy is 1-3 and among the top 25 rushing teams in the nation. Of course they rank near the bottom in passing yards & points scored, so I guess they need to mix it up a little more. Air Force leads the nation in rushing and is near the bottom of the barrel in passing yards, but they are averaging 37 points per game. Their defense has really let them down though, so they are only 2-2. I expect to see lots of running here, and probably a high score. I’ll take the Falcons to get the victory and cover the spread.

 

 

LSU (-2.5)            at            Florida

I have picked two favorites thus far. Will the trend continue??

In my pre-season Top 25 I put the Bayou Bengals at #17 with the logic that they have a target on their backs and opponents will be especially psyched to take them down. That has been true so far…kind of. LSU is 5-0 and ranked 4th in the polls, but they have slipped a spot each of the past two weeks after lackluster victories over Auburn and Towson. A subpar effort won’t cut it this week though against the 10th ranked 4-0 Gators, who have been impressive in wins over Texas A&M, Tennessee, & Kentucky. So this looks like a contest of two undefeated & highly ranked teams that are going in opposite directions…one on the rise, and the other on the verge of being knocked down a peg or two. The boys in Vegas apparently didn’t get that memo since they have made LSU slight favorites even though they are venturing into decidedly unfriendly territory at The Swap. I think that is the difference here. I just can’t have much faith in a team that struggles to beat Towson and is now faced with the daunting task of playing a Top 10 team in one of the most…spirited…venues in college football. Florida gets the upset.

 

 

Georgia                at            South Carolina (-1.5)

I suppose it isn’t all that shocking that we get the pleasure of seeing two SEC teams face one other who happen to be 2 of the top 6 teams in the country. The ESPN Gameday crew will be in Columbia slobbering all over themselves and fellatiating the SEC, but as much as I hate to say it the praise has been earned. Both teams come into this game undefeated and in the hunt for a national championship, but at the end of the day one of them will pretty much out of the running. The Gamecocks are slim favorites only because of the home field advantage. I picked South Carolina #3 in my preseason rankings, while I left the Bulldogs off the board entirely. The latter may have been a mistake, and this game will decide if the former was an egregious error as well. I don’t think it was. I stand behind my choice and will go with South Carolina here.

 

 

Denver                                 at            New England (-6.5)

Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. That’s enough to sell this matchup. Brady leads the rivalry 8-4, and unfortunately I think he’ll extend the lead this week. I picked both of these teams to make the playoffs and the Patriots to make The Super Bowl. At this point I am not ready to back off of either prediction, but will say that both teams have looked much more…ordinary…than I thought they would. That being said, I think right now New England is a more complete team and Manning is still knocking off some rust. It makes me physically ill to pick the Patriots, but I think they’ll win and cover.

 

 

Buffalo                                 at            San Francisco (-9.5)

Who would have thought at this stage that the 49ers would NOT be in 1st place in their division?? Though they are 3-1 they are behind the undefeated Arizona Cardinals (although as I write this it looks like the Cardinals are going to lose their game). A stunning defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings left the football world abuzz, but I think it is much ado about nothing. If anything it just means that the Vikings are a lot better than we thought, but it almost certainly doesn’t indicate that San Francisco won’t be as awesome the remainder of the season as most of us believed they would. Buffalo currently sits in a 2-2 logjam in the AFC East and needs to do anything possibly to keep pace with the aforementioned Patriots, who are undoubtedly better than their record. I think this will be a defensive struggle, and the spread makes me a little nervous. San Francisco should win, but by how much?? Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is inconsistent at best, but has occasional flashes of being an actual NFL quarterback. Will he have a good week?? Word on the street is that both of Buffalo’s banged up running backs…Fred Jackson & CJ Spiller…will be ready to go for this game, but I’m not sure how much that’ll help against San Francisco’s stout run defense. I guess it can’t hurt, right?? But I really think it comes down to the play of Fitzpatrick. My vibes are telling me that Buffalo will study the SF/Minnesota game film and figure out a way to atleast keep this close, so I am picking the Bills.

 

 

San Diego            at            New Orleans (-4)

Anyone who read my NFL Preview might recall that I said “I do not believe that a team can go through the turmoil that the Saints have experienced this offseason and not be affected.” That might be the wisest prognostication I’ve made all season. But not even I thought they’d start the year 0-4. Will they drop to 0-5?? I also predicted that the Chargers would go 6-10 and said that “the party is over in San Diego and head coach Norv Turner will soon be enjoying an early retirement”. That hasn’t been so accurate thus far, as the Chargers are 3-1 and in 1st place. Are these trends solid or just a mirage?? I’ll go with the latter. I don’t think New Orleans is THIS bad, nor do I believe San Diego is that good. I think the Saints win & cover here, and I still think they can make it to the playoffs.

 

 

 

 

Related articles