2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 12

We’re in the home stretch of the college football season and ¾ of the way into the NFL season. With the holidays fast approaching and things on the gridiron getting really interesting I’d have to say that this is one of my favorite stretches of the entire year. Last week Zach went 4-2 while your humble Potentate of Profundity was 3-3. I’ll pat myself on the back for getting the USC upset of Stanford right, while Zach & I both correctly predicted that Louisville would beat Houston but not cover and also barely got a win when Oregon St. lost to Arizona St. by 13 points…not 13.5, thereby covering the spread. Zach picked Auburn & Michigan St., both games that I had pegged totally wrong. So thus far the 2013 season looks as such:

                Zach                       =             26-30

                Yours Truly          =             29-27

This week we have some really intriguing games both college & pro, and surprisingly there are no crazy point spreads. I hope these games are all as close as the boys in Vegas seem to think they will be.

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Texas A&M                         at            LSU (-4.5)

I’m actually a bit surprised at the spread. I know LSU has the home field, but they are 7-3, coming off a loss to Alabama, and ranked 19th in the polls facing a Texas A&M team that is 8-2, ranked 10th, and texas_am_01riding a 3 game winning streak. I know home field advantage means a lot, but I didn’t realize it meant that much. At any rate, a victory here combined with impressive numbers could secure another Heisman for QB Johnny Manziel. Meanwhile, the Tigers aren’t really playing for anything other than pride and a more lucrative bowl destination. The vibes are telling me that Johnny Football will rise to the occasion and overcome LSU’s stout defense. Zach is on the same wavelength and thinks it’ll be close until the 4th quarter when Manziel takes over.

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Arizona St. (-2.5)              at            UCLA

The Sun Devils really have kind of snuck up on everyone this year. They are 8-2 and very much in the hunt for a Rose Bowl berth. Who’s standing in their way?? Well…the Bruins. This game might decide the ucla_bruins2south division of the Pac 12 although the USC Trojans are right there as well. Arizona St. already defeated the Trojans back in September (costing head coach Lane Kiffin his job), with USC & UCLA set for their annual showdown next week. When I did my pre-season Top 25 I had UCLA ranked 15th which is right about where they stand at the moment. I can’t abandon them now, right?? Once again Zach concurs, adding that he’s just not that impressed by Arizona St.

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Baylor (-9.5)                       at            Oklahoma St.

oklahoma_state_cowboys_iphone_wallpaperI am really looking forward to this game. With a victory the Bears will vault Ohio State in the BCS (emphasis on BS) standings, meaning that they’d be first in line for a shot at the national title shouldbaylor either Alabama or Florida State falter. Personally I think it’d be awesome if both ‘Bama & the ‘Noles would lose, opening the door for a Buckeyes-Bears national title game, but I’m not holding my breath. However, having said that I do believe it to be within the realm of possibility that one or the other could lose, so this game is huge for Baylor. Meanwhile the Cowboys are just trucking along getting no respect at all despite a 9-1 record and a Top 10 ranking. This game will likely decide the Big 12 champion and a BCS bowl regardless of what happens with those other teams. I have pondered this game a bit and I must say that The Voices aren’t telling me what I expected to hear. I think 9.5 points may actually be too big of a number, especially with this game being played in the friendly confines of Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. Baylor hasn’t really been challenged late into a game with the exception of a mid-October contest at Kansas St. in which they were behind going into the 4th quarter, scored very early in that quarter to take the lead, and then added another late TD just for good measure. I think it is quite possible that this game might be up for grabs with 5 or less minutes remaining. Can Baylor grind out a close one?? Probably. But I don’t think they’ll cover the points. Zach is going in the opposite direction on this one and foresees a Baylor blowout.

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Indianapolis                       at            Arizona (-2)

The Arizona Cardinals are 6-4 and in the thick of the NFC wildcard chase. Not bad for a team that I predicted would go 3-13. Oops. The Colts, on the other hand, are right about where I thought they’d be, which Indianapolis_Colts_Helmetis comfortably winning their division. I know the Cards are getting the home field bump with the 2 points, but I ain’t buying it. I’ll be shocked if Indy doesn’t win this one easily. Zach is concerned that sometimes Indianapolis plays down to their competition but still agrees that they’ll cruise to a victory here.

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Denver (-2.5)                     at            New England

0809-Broncos-NFL-kickoff-Peyton-Manning_full_600Has anyone else noticed that NBC’s Sunday Night Football gets all the good games?? I bet the powers-that-be in Bristol are not happy about that. Personally though I like it. There’s usually brady.tom.112807nothing else better to do on a Sunday night than watch football, while Monday is wrestling night and only a game involving my Pittsburgh Steelers will tear me away from WWE Raw. Anyway, the Broncos are coming off a huge win over the Kansas City Chiefs and will travel to Kansas City to face that same team again next week. Unfortunately they don’t exactly have a cakewalk in between with the Patriots, who got hosed in a loss to the Carolina Panthers last week. This is Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady. Not much else needs to be said to sell it, right?? I’d feel a lot better about picking Denver if the Patriots hadn’t gotten screwed by the refs last Monday night. They’ll be angry and out to prove that they’re still big & bad. Nevertheless I just can’t go against Manning. Zach does NOT think that the Patriots got screwed against the Panthers (he’s wrong), but unlike someone else is willing to go against Manning and pick New England.

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2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

I was hoping for a really good rebound after an abysmal Week 9, and I guess it could have been worse. Baylor destroyed Oklahoma. I totally didn’t see that coming. I rolled the dice on LSU giving Alabama a game but instead they were trounced by 3 TDs. On the flip side the Ravens did beat the Bengals, Stanford upset Oregon, & Wisconsin rolled over BYU. Zach & I both went 3-2, meaning our season looks like this:

Your Humble Potentate of Profundity   =             26-24

Zach                       =                             22-28

We’re doing all college games again this week and I’m even giving you a bonus pick. I’m generous like that. Can I keep my head above water?? Will Zach have an awesome week and take the season lead?? Stay tuned!!

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Georgia                at            Auburn (-3.5)

georgiaNeither of these teams would seem to have a realistic shot at playing in the SEC championship, but both could still end up in a rather pleasant auburn(and profitable) post-season spot like the Cotton Bowl or Chick-Fil-A Bowl (the old Peach Bowl). The Bulldogs have had an up & down season after some lofty pre-season expectations. Conversely, I don’t think anyone would have predicted such a solid season for Auburn after a 3-9 campaign in 2012, yet here they are riding a 6 game winning streak, including an upset of the Johnny Manziel & the Aggies in College Station, TX. Not only is this a classic trap game for Auburn (archrival & #1 team in the country Alabama await in a couple of weeks), but I am just not convinced that they are better than Georgia. Conversely, Zach is all in on Auburn and thinks they’ll win this one handily.

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Michigan St. (-6.5)           at            Nebraska

nebraskaThe Spartans have snuck up on just about everyone this season, although I’d be remiss if I didn’t humbly point out that I ranked them 22nd in Michigan_State_Spartansmy pre-season Top 25. Meanwhile, the Cornhuskers have flown somewhat under the radar for some reason. The winner of this contest will be in the driver’s seat to face Ohio St. in the Big Ten (which has 12 teams) title game. I had the Cornhuskers as a Top 10 team in the pre-season and still don’t think they are that bad. I am a bit surprised that they aren’t currently ranked. That would change with an upset here, and that is exactly what I am predicting. Zach is still smarting from the Spartans spanking his Wolverines but he did learn a healthy respect for the Michigan St. defense and believes that will be the key in a big 3 touchdown victory.

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Oklahoma St. (-3)            at            Texas

My WV Mountaineers have been in The Big 12 (which has ten teams) for two seasons now and I still can’t get a good read on the conference. Just when I think I texashave things figured out something weird happens. It seems like just yesterday there was buzz about Texas ridding itself of longtime head coach Mack Brown, but since then the Longhorns have reeled off 6 straight victories and now find themselves ranked in the Top 25 and not out of conference title contention (although they have to hope Baylor crumbles which seems unlikely). Meanwhile the Cowboys still just have that one perplexing loss to the ‘Eers marring their season. As much as I like Oklahoma St. and think they are a fine team it feels to me like the early season drama woke up a sleeping giant in Austin, TX and Coach Brown has something to prove. Texas just hired a new athletic director and I’m sure he’s pondering whether or not a change is necessary. A home victory this week would render the point moot, which is exactly what I think will happen. Zach concurs.

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Houston               at            Louisville (-16)

We haven’t picked a lot of American Athletic Conference games here so far. The AAC is a new conference made up of Big East leftovers and a few C-USA houstontransplants and to be honest the quality of football isn’t really all that…enticing. If given a choice between watching a Temple-Connecticut game or an SMU-Memphis matchup and lowering my junk into the same pot that the Thanksgiving turkey is being deep fried in…well, I’d actually have to think about it. However, Houston has traditionally been a fun team with a high powered run & gun offense. We also shouldn’t forget that they came within a whisper of an undefeated season just two years ago, and after a losing season in 2012 they seem to have rebounded a bit. Meanwhile the bloom is off the rose in Cardinal Country. One loss to Central Florida and not only did The ‘Ville plummet down the rankings but QB Teddy Bridgewater…a nearly unanimous choice to be the #1 overall pick in next spring’s NFL Draft just a few weeks ago…seems to be falling down the pecking order and might not be the first quarterback drafted. I smell an upset here, and even if that doesn’t happen I think the game will be a lot closer than 16 points. Zach agrees again.

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Stanford (-4)      at            USC

USC_Trojans2Stanford is coming off an impressive upset of the Oregon Ducks and has vaulted themselves into the national title conversation in the unlikely photo.stanfordtreeevent that either Alabama or Florida St. falter. USC has won 4 out of 5 under interim head coach Ed Orgeron and will likely receive a plum bowl slot regardless of how they fare the remainder of the season. This is yet another classic trap game, although in reverse. Stanford has nothing grand to look forward to, but one has to wonder if they might be a bit full of themselves after dashing the Ducks’ national championship dreams. Orgeron isn’t currently considered a serious candidate to get the USC gig long term, but the powers-that-be might reconsider if he can engineer a big upset in this game. I think it just might happen. Zach, on the other hand, believes that Stanford’s momentum will not only carry them to a victory in this game but that they still have a good chance to play in the national title game.

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Oregon St.          at            Arizona St. (-13.5)

I loves me some west coast football. I am actually off from work this Saturday night and will happily tune into whatever obscure channel on my cable box hostsOregonStateBeavers2 the Pac 12 Network at 9:30pm. The Beavers are coming into this one with two straight losses, while the Sun Devils are riding a 4 game winning streak and are in a battle for a chance to play in the conference title game. I don’t know enough about either team to dissect them with any semblance of credibility but I think a two TD spread is just too much. I am hoping for and expecting a much closer game. Zach thinks we might be crazy, but also believes we could both be right in calling for the upset.

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2013 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 3

This is going to be short & sweet. I am an odd mix of somewhat busy and extremely unmotivated. Why?? I don’t know exactly, although I believe it has something to do with my diet and the fact that I have fallen completely off the wagon with my weight loss effort. I may enjoy eating pasta & candy more than salad & oatmeal, but the truth is I feel much more energetic and healthy when I eat the right things. Anyway, that is a subject for another day. We’re here to talk about football, right?? Last week I had what I think is my best week ever with these picks, going 4-1. Only the Chicago Bears stood between me & perfection. Meanwhile, Zach went 2-3. The Cincinnati Bengals let him down just like they did me, plus he chose South Carolina and the Atlanta Falcons who both lost. So that makes our season record as follows:

Your Humble Potentate of Profundity      =             6-4

Zach             =             5-5

This week we are NFL heavy. I just didn’t see a lot of college football that really revved my engine. With all NCAA teams now playing 12 games it means that many are still going up against cupcakes in the third week before their conference schedule begins. Fortunately I think that’ll change next week. In the meantime…..

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Alabama (-8)     at            Texas A&M

Well okay…there is one intriguing college football game. My question is “Will it be all that interesting??”. The Tide dominated Virginia Tech in their opener and then AlabamaCrimsonTide2had last week off. Think about that…they’ve had 2 weeks to prepare for this game. The Aggies are 2-0 after beating down two inferior foes, but no one has really been talking about their football team. For months now it’s been the Johnny Manziel show in College Station, TX. He’s the anti-Tebow…a good quarterback who can actually throw the ball, but seemingly not a very good person. To be honest I’m sick to death of hearing about Johnny Football. The NCAA totally wussed out by suspending him for one half of one game for allegedly getting paid to autograph memorabilia, which sent a totally wrong message. I am normally an underdog kind of guy, but I find myself hoping ‘Bama teaches this petulant, spoiled, arrogant punk a lesson Saturday…and I think that just might actually happen. Zach loves Johnny Football (kids…what’re ya gonna do??) but thinks The Tide will roll.

My Pick:               Alabama

Z’s Pick:                Alabama

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Miami                   at                            Indianapolis (-3)

Why do so many NFL games have a 3 point spread?? It’s kind of a gutless call by the oddsmakers. I understand that giving the home team a 3 point advantage is a Indianapolis_Colts_Helmetbaseline. And I certainly get that parody is a big thing in pro football. But sometimes one team is clearly better. The Colts began their season with a solid yet unimpressive win over the Raiders. Conversely, Miami handled the lowly Browns pretty easily. I think QB Andrew Luck has a big game this week, and I look for Ahmad Bradshaw to seize the running back job. Zach concurs.

My Pick:               Indianapolis

Z’s Pick:                Indianapolis

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Dallas                    at                            Kansas City (-2.5)

The Cowboys began their season with a nice win over their division rival NY Giants. The Chiefs had no problems at all against the horrible Jacksonville Jaguars. Evenkc-chiefs-logo considering the home field I am a bit surprised that KC is favored in this one. I really like QB Alex Smith and think he landed in a pretty good spot after being pushed out of San Francisco. And let us not overlook the fact that Chiefs’ head coach Andy Reid is very familiar with Dallas since he faced them many many times as coach of the Philadelphia Eagles. I’m going to go with the favorites here since…all other things being equal…the oddsmakers seems to know something the rest of us don’t.

My Pick:               Kansas City

Z’s Pick:                Kansas City

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Detroit                  at                            Arizona

You might be saying to yourself…”Where are the odds??”. Well…this is the rare game that is being called as even. The poor Cardinals can’t even get the nominal nodDetroit_Lions_Helmet for the home field. Both of these teams have been trying to dig themselves out from the hole of mediocrity for what seems like decades. Oh there was that one magical Super Bowl season for Arizona back in 2008, but other than that they’ve only had one additional winning season from 1998 til now. The Lions have shown sporadic signs of success but can’t ever seem to get over the hump. They had ten straight losing seasons until last year when they made the playoffs. The Cardinals seem to have a solid defense, and the quarterback situation has been patched up…for now…with Carson Palmer. But I think the Lions are a more complete team right now. Zach has no doubt that Detroit wins this one.

My Pick:               Detroit

Z’s Pick:                Detroit

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Denver  (-5.5)     at                            NY Giants

You may have heard about Peyton Manning and how he began his 2013 season…7 touchdowns and nearly 500 yards against the defending Super Bowl champions. broncos-4759The Giants narrowly lost their opener to the Cowboys. The Giants’ starting RB can’t stop fumbling and injuries are beginning to take their toll already. If this wasn’t “The Manning Bowl” no one would care about a game that really isn’t in question.

My Pick:               Denver

Z’s Pick:                Denver

2013 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

football_goalIt’s been a weird summer. Temperatures here in West Virginia seemingly hovered in the 70’s much of the past few months and it has College-Football-Maprained every other day. The kids started back to school in mid-August so we’ve kind of been in autumn mode already. So be it. Fall means football and football has always been my favorite season, although to be honest I feel that changing ever-so-slightly. Watching NFL pre-season games has been an exercise in frustration the past two weeks for reasons that I’ll explain when we do the NFL preview soon. For now it is enough to say that I am glad that Roger Goodell hasn’t yet figured out a way to seize power of the NCAA and ruin the collegiate game the way he is bastardizing the pro game. Anyway, as always I must remind my dear citizens of The Manoverse that I do not encourage wagering and I am not really all that good at this so please don’t head to Vegas and risk your kids’ college fund on these predictions.

 

 

 

1              Oregon

Last Season:       12-1

Key Game:          10/26 vs. UCLA

The biggest loss the Ducks suffered after a stellar 2012 season was their head coach Chip Kelly to the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles. Usually that’d be enough to dissuade Oregon-Ducksme from picking a team anywhere close to this high. However, my vibe is that new coach Mark Helfrich…the former offensive coordinator…will keep this train rolling forward just fine. Oregon has played in a big January bowl game the past 4 years and I believe they have a great chance to outlast the always stiff competition in the Pac 12 to make what will be the final BCS title game on January 6, 2014.

 

 

2              Ohio State

Last Season:       12-0

Key Games:        9/28 vs. Wisconsin, 11/30 at Michigan

The Buckeyes went undefeated last season but it didn’t matter because they were on probation and weren’t allowed to play in the post-season. With all of that osucraziness now in the rear view mirror head coach Urban Meyer can now get down to business. Is junior QB Braxton Miller the real deal?? Most people seem to think so. I see no reason why Ohio St. shouldn’t easily roll thru the early part of their schedule until running into Wisconsin…and that game will be in the friendly confines of The Horseshoe in Columbus. Whether or not the season ends in Pasadena on January 6th could very well be determined at the end of November when the Buckeyes travel to The Big House to face the Michigan Wolverines.

 

 

3              Alabama

Last Season:       13-1

Key Games:        9/14 at Texas A&M, 11/9 vs. LSU

The Tide has won back-to-back national titles and 3 out of the last 4. Most pre-season polls have them ranked #1. But since A) I am a non-conformist and B) I just AlabamaCrimsonTide2think the SEC is too tough to assume that anyone can go undefeated I can’t quite pull the trigger on ranking ‘Bama #1. Having said that a quick glance at their schedule doesn’t really raise any eyebrows. At this point who knows if Texas A&M will even have their Heisman winning, autograph signing, NCAA rules violating QB Johnny Manziel, and even if they do one has to logically believe that Alabama will be geared up to avenge last year’s 29-24 loss to the Aggies. Can LSU go into Tuscaloosa and pull off a November surprise?? Possibly. Or maybe the only thing standing between ‘Bama and yet another trip to the national title game is whoever they face in the SEC Championship game…likely either Georgia, Florida, or South Carolina. But one loss might be all it takes this year to knock the defending champs out of contention…and I am guessing some team will do just that at some point in 2013.

 

 

4              Texas

Last Season:       9-4

Key Games:        9/7 at BYU, 10/12 vs. Oklahoma, 11/16 vs. Oklahoma St.

After nine straight seasons of 10 or more victories the past three seasons have been somewhat…lean…in Austin. It seems odd that a 9-4 record in 2012 would be texasconsidered disappointing (especially after going 5-7 just two years earlier), but that’s just how these elite teams roll. I think the Longhorns are finally primed to re-ascend to the top of The Big 12 and possibly contend for a national championship. The conference is solid but not all that spectacular with only two other legit contenders for the crown. Texas has both of those games…against Oklahoma & Oklahoma St…at home. An early season contest in Provo against BYU might be interesting.

 

 

5              South Carolina

Last Season:       11-2

Key Games:        9/7 at Georgia, 11/16 vs. Florida, 11/30 vs. Clemson

The Gamecocks have a very good defensive end that you may have heard of named Jadeveon Clowney. Now I don’t know whether or not he’ll live up to the hype in Gamecocksthe NFL, but the fact that he’s seen as a combination of Lawrence Taylor & Reggie White makes him a singular collegiate talent…even in the elite SEC. An early season contest in Athens against the Bulldogs might go a long way in deciding the SEC East and become a significant factor in determining who will face Alabama for the conference championship. An in-state rivalry game against the ACC’s Clemson Tigers isn’t likely to decide anything except poll position and bowl placement but since those are kind of a big deal it’ll be a fun game to watch.

 

 

6              Louisville

Last Season:       11-2

Key Games:        12/5 at Cincinnati

The Big East is gone, replaced by the American Athletic Conference. Either way it’s a last hurrah and most likely the last time anyone outside of the top teams in the Louisville_Cardinalspower conferences (SEC, ACC, Big 12, Pac 12, Big 10…oh…and Notre Dame) will have the opportunity to sniff a top tier bowl unless they buy a ticket. Not that it matters to the Cardinals since they are heading to the ACC in 2014 anyway. Fortunately for Louisville they just happen to have a junior QB who’s also a projected 1st round NFL talent. Serendipity indeed. Because of their current conference affiliation and the perceived lack of respect for it I believe that the Cardinals will have to go undefeated to finish this high in the rankings even if they can still go to a BCS bowl just by winning the conference, and I think they have a really good shot at doing just that.

 

 

7              Michigan

Last Season:       8-5

Key Games:        9/7 vs. Notre Dame, 11/2 at Michigan St., 11/9 vs. Nebraska, 11/30 vs. Ohio St.

Coach Brady Hoke is 19-7 in his first two seasons in Ann Arbor…but he is 14-0 at home. That bodes well for home contests against Notre Dame, Nebraska, & Ohio michigan_helmet-25004St. The Wolverines will probably need to win 2 of those 3 to have any shot at a Top 10 finish. QB Denard Robinson is gone and now trying to make the roster of the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars. However, Michigan still has junior Devin Gardner, who actually saw significant time at quarterback last season, and it might be a blessing in disguise. It always felt like there may have been too much of a concerted effort to put Robinson in the spotlight…sometimes at the expense of the team. In 2012 Michigan lost 2 of its first 4 games to Alabama & Notre Dame. I don’t think The Irish will be quite as good in 2013 so I’d be surprised if Michigan doesn’t go 7-0 pretty effortlessly before facing the Spartans in East Lansing at the beginning of November. The annual Michigan-Ohio St. rivalry battle is in Ann Arbor this season, and while I don’t think Michigan will be in contention for the national championship they’ll be jacked to have the chance to cost the Buckeyes a title opportunity.

 

 

8              Florida State

Last Season:       12-2

Key Games:        10/19 at Clemson, 11/30 at Florida

The ACC is on the verge of becoming the new Big East…still one of the big boys but certainly on the bottom rung of the ladder. That could change if newcomers (in FloridaStateSeminoles12014) Pitt, Syracuse, & Louisville emerge…or re-emerge…as legit football powers. At any rate, regardless of the mediocrity of teams like Boston College, Georgia Tech, NC St., & Maryland or the even worse ineptitude of Duke & Wake Forest, the Seminoles have long been college football royalty. And while the ghost of Bobby Bowden will never completely go away Coach Jimbo Fisher (a Clarksburg, WV native and fellow alumnus of the Liberty High School) seems to be settling in quite nicely at the beginning of his 4th season at the helm in Tallahassee. A mid-season clash at Clemson will probably decide who wins the Atlantic Division of the conference, while the annual in-state rivalry game against the Florida Gators at the end of the season may have broader implications.

 

 

9              Nebraska

Last Season:       10-4

Key Games:        9/14 vs. UCLA, 11/9 at Michigan, 11/16 vs. Michigan St.

The Cornhuskers transition from The Big 12 (which has ten teams) to The Big 10 (which has 12 teams) has been seamless the past two seasons and I see no reasonhuskers why 2013 should be any different. Two of their key games (one is a non-conference clash with UCLA) are in Lincoln and they do not play Ohio State at all (unless it’s in the conference title game…a distinct possibility). Games against the two Michigan schools will decide the division crown. QB Taylor Martinez returns for his senior year and has become a legit dual threat…a competent passer and a constant threat to run the ball. I’m not sure if he’ll be considered a big time NFL prospect, but at this level he’s a star.

 

 

10           Stanford

Last Season:       12-2

Key Games:        10/19 vs. UCLA, 11/7 vs. Oregon, 11/16 at USC, 11/30 at Notre Dame

Stanford fared just fine in 2012 without star QB Andrew Luck who had left for the NFL. A tough overtime loss to Notre Dame in South Bend aStanford-Logo-Treend an inexplicable defeat at the hands of the very average Washington Huskies were the only blemishes on their record. I foresee a very similar season in 2013. I think they’ll certainly lose to Oregon, and after that two questions arise. First, can they win atleast 2 out of 3 of their other key games against UCLA, USC, & Notre Dame?? Secondly, will there be another curious loss to a lesser yet not terrible team like Oregon St. or Arizona St.??

 

 

11           Georgia

Last Season:       12-2

Key Games:        8/31 at Clemson, 9/7 vs. South Carolina, 9/28 vs. LSU, 11/2 at Florida

Last year I overlooked the Bulldogs. My rationale was simply that in a tough SEC someone had to be the odd man out, and I chose to endorse the likes of Tennessee,id_bulldog_logo_l Auburn, & Arkansas (in addition to safe picks like Alabama & LSU) instead of Georgia. Oops. I will not make that same mistake this time, although I am a bit trepidatious because instead of starting out the season with 2 or 3 cupcakes like most teams seem to these days Georgia will begin 2013 against the likes of Clemson then South Carolina. If they can split those two contests they’ll get a one week break against an inferior opponent before hosting LSU. I don’t know who makes the schedule in Athens but I think they may need to be fired. That being said I think the worst case scenario for this team is 9 wins. 10 or more victories will almost certainly secure a Top 10 finish. Senior QB Aaron Murray will get an early Heisman push and is a solid NFL prospect.

 

 

12           Clemson

Last Season:       11-2

Key Games:        8/31 vs. Georgia, 10/19 vs. Florida St., 11/30 at South Carolina

Clemson returns both QB Taj Boyd and WR Sammy Watkins, which is a huge reason why they are getting so much pre-season love. On the flip side the offense did clemsonlose key contributors RB Andre Ellington and WR DeAndre Hopkins to the NFL. 2 of the 3 key games noted above will be at home. Opening the season against the Georgia Bulldogs is an undeniably tough mountain to climb and makes things a bit unpredictable because so much will depend on what each team has been able to accomplish in the spring and in the past few weeks of late summer practice. I don’t think the loser of that contest is necessarily toast for the remainder of the year, but they will be behind the proverbial 8-Ball. If the Tigers can steal 2 of those key games they are almost assured of a Top 10 finish.

 

 

13           Oklahoma

Last Season:       10-3

Key Games:        9/28 at Notre Dame, 10/5 vs. TCU, 10/12 vs. Texas, 12/7 at Oklahoma St.

The Sooners will be starting a freshman at QB which makes me just a little bit nervous. But I do like their schedule. This feels like another 10 win season for the oklahomaSooners. The question is where do the losses come?? An early season defeat at the hands of Notre Dame wouldn’t hurt nearly as much as losing at the end of the season to in-state rival Oklahoma St. I expect this year’s Red River Shootout (yes I still call it that…screw political correctness) against Texas will decide The Big 12 and possibly play a role in determining who plays for the national championship. QB Blake Bell…aka The Bell Dozer…may not have won the starting job but he’ll surely have an important part to play in the offense.

 

 

14           Cincinnati

Last Season:       10-3

Key Games:        12/5 vs. Louisville

The Bearcats season boils down to one game. Whoever wins that game on December 12 will represent the American Athletic Conference in the final round of BCS CincinnatiBearcatsbowls. The loser will be playing in the Russell Athletic Bowl in December even if they have 11 wins. A year from now Louisville will be another middle-of-the-road, largely forgotten about ACC team (see Miami, FL., Boston College, &, Georgia Tech), while Cincy remains on the deck of the Titanic hoping for a lifeboat. Former coach Butch Jones has moved on to Tennessee, but Cincinnati was…to the shock of many…able to lure new head coach Tommy Tuberville away from Texas Tech. Perhaps Tuberville knows something the rest of us don’t. At the moment it looks to be a two-headed monster situation at QB but personally I’m rooting for Munchie Legaux simply because that is a freakin’ awesome name.

 

 

15           UCLA

Last season:       9-5

Key Games:        9/14 at Nebraska, 10/19 at Stanford, 10/26 at Oregon, 11/30 at USC

USC gets all the love, but there’s another team in Los Angeles that folks need to pay attention to. Once upon a time the UCLA Bruins…admittedly a school betterucla_bruins2 known for its storied basketball team…had a fairly solid football tradition. Bruins alums include such names as Troy Aikman, Jonathan Ogden, Freeman McNeil, Floyd Reese, & Maurice Jones-Drew. They dominated the Pac 10 for much of the 1980s and have been to 12 Rose Bowls, the last being in 1998. However, they have been average at best for most of the past decade. That started to change last year with a 9-5 record under new head coach Jim Mora Jr.  Here is how I see this going down. There is a fairly good chance that this team loses all three of the initial key games I’ve selected. If we assume they win the other 8 then that means the season comes down to the rivalry showdown with USC, and it is completely with the realm of possibility that a division crown and an opportunity to play in the conference championship game (likely against Oregon or Stanford) will be on the line. It’ll be nice to have the Battle of L.A. mean something again.

 

 

16           Oklahoma State

Last Season:       8-5

Key Games:        10/19 vs. TCU, 11/16 at Texas, 12/7 vs. Oklahoma

I believe The Big 12 will be a three horse race and Oklahoma St. will be in that conversation. The Cowboys are almost always an offensive juggernaut. In 2012 they OkSt.logo_score 35+ points nine times. One of their five losses was in overtime to in-state rival Oklahoma and another was by just 5 points to Texas. The Cowboys replace offensive coordinators more often than Van Halen changes lead singers but it doesn’t seem to matter all that much. My biggest concern is the defense. In those 5 losses last year Oklahoma St.’s defense gave up over 47 points per game. That has to change this season and I think it will. The October matchup against TCU is huge. I have gone out on a limb and predicted that the Horned Frogs will not be the Top 25 team that most other polls say they are so the Cowboys need to justify my logic by winning that particular game. Even if they lose to both Texas & Oklahoma they’ll still be in the hunt as long as they win their other 10 games.

 

 

17           Texas A&M

Last Season:       11-2

Key Games:        9/14 vs. Alabama, 11/23 at LSU

The most important question for the Aggies might be how many victories they have to vacate down the road when the NCAA finds that Heisman winning WB Johnny a&mManziel got paid to autograph memorabilia. However, since that issue is a complete wildcard we’ll just have to let that all take care of itself when the time is right and deal with what we think we know about the team. If we take Manziel at face value as a legit player who won’t be disqualified for being a filthy cheater…well…there are still issues. First of all I am not at all sure that he was deserving of that Heisman. Secondly, since winning the award Johnny Football has seemed to be just a bit too enamored with himself and his celebrity status. How will this affect his play and the team chemistry in 2013?? Obviously I don’t think it’ll be that big of a deal. Can the Aggies upset Alabama a second consecutive year?? I highly doubt it although the game is in College Station. But even with a loss there they should reach the end of November with a 9-1 record before heading to Baton Rouge to face LSU. That’ll be a huge game.

 

 

18           Fresno State

Last Season:       9-4

Key Games:        9/20 vs. Boise St.

Traditionally I have a shot-in-the-dark pick in these rankings. It doesn’t take much skill to put a bunch of SEC & Big Ten teams in a Top 25…it’s just putting them in thefresno right order that’s tricky. But…contrary to what the TV people would have you believe…college football is more than just the 4 or 5 “power conferences”.  They play some pretty decent football in the MAC, Mountain West, & C-USA. I have been a Fresno St. fan for awhile now. Their games are always entertaining and they have been a bowl team in 12 of the past 13 seasons. Senior QB Derek Carr is the younger brother of David Carr, who may not have had much of an NFL career but was the NCAA’s most prolific passer in 2001. There’s got to be something in the genes, right?? Much like the Cincinnati Bearcats the season for Fresno St. boils down to one big game. My vibes have led me to jump off the Boise St. bandwagon this year and this game on September 20th will…in the words of Billy Joel…have me walking away a fool or a king.

 

 

19           Notre Dame

Last Season:       12-1

Key Games:        9/7 at Michigan, 9/21 vs. Michigan St., 9/28 vs. Oklahoma, 11/30 at Stanford

A year ago I reluctantly ranked the hated Irish #21 and said that they “will almost certainly lose atleast 3 of the 4” key games I’d selected. Instead they went NotreDameFightingIrishundefeated before screwing the pooch in the National Championship. Okay…so I am not always right. I’m honest about that fact. However, that being said I am once again ranking Notre Dame just a bit lower than most other polls. Sophomore Everett Golson is gone for the season after seemingly forgetting the “student” part of the student-athlete equation. Senior QB Tommy Rees isn’t a bad fallback option, but one has to believe that there is a reason he lost the starting gig to Golson a year ago. Oh yeah…now I remember. Rees was boozing it up at a party and got into a scuffle with the cops which led to a brief suspension therefore opening the door for Golson. Those Irish coaches sure can pick ‘em, huh?? At any rate, Rees now gets another opportunity. Linebacker Manti Te’o has moved on to the NFL (no word on the whereabouts of imaginary dead girlfriend Lennay Kekua), and RBs Theo Riddick & Cierre Wood are also gone. So why rank Notre Dame?? One reason…head coach Brian Kelly. He is undoubtedly one of the best coaches in college football and I believe in his football prowess & motivational skill. Notre Dame’s schedule is always always always brutal, but I still believe they’ll find a way to win 9 or 10 games.

 

 

20           Florida

Last Season:       11-2

Key Games:        10/12 at LSU, 11/2 vs. Georgia, 11/16 at South Carolina, 11/30 vs. Florida St.

The Gators are the 4th of 5 SEC teams in our countdown. Normally this would make me a bit skittish, but six SEC teams finished 2012 in the Top 25, and we all knowflorida gators image that the talking heads love to fawn all over the SEC. Can they split the 4 key games noted above?? Florida has played in a bowl game for 22 consecutive years so it is difficult to fathom that they could ever be anything less than atleast pretty good. These are not the Steve Spurrier/Urban Myer Gators of Danny Wuerffel, Shane Matthews, Chris Leak, or Rex Grossman. Head coach Will Muschamp likes to run the ball and was able to do so effectively in 2012 with RB Mike Gillislee who has moved on to the NFL. I expect junior QB Jeff Driskel to grow considerably in that role this season. The biggest question will be the defense. It was a top 5 group in 2012, but several players, including DT Sharrif Floyd and safety Matt Elam, are now getting paid to play on Sunday. But Muschamp is a former defensive coordinator so he knows how to build a defense. The Gators will need to steal atleast 1 and preferably 2 of the key games noted above to secure a Top 25 ranking.

 

 

21           Northwestern

Last Season:       10-3

Key Games:        10/5 vs. Ohio St., 10/12 at Wisconsin, 11/2 at Nebraska, 11/6 vs. Michigan, 11/23 vs. Michigan St.

Northwestern is generally considered more of an academic school, but they have had some success on the football field, winning 8 or more games six times since Northwestern_Wildcats1995. I really like Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who I recall being a tough linebacker for the Wildcats in the mid-1990’s when they won two consecutive Big Ten titles. Fitzgerald has led his team to 5 straight bowl games. If Northwestern can win just 2 of their 5 key games (easier said than done) and win the other 8 games that they should win this could very well be a 9 or 10 win team.

 

 

22           Michigan St.

Last Season:       7-6

Key Games:        9/21 at Notre Dame, 11/2 vs. Michigan, 11/16 at Nebraska, 11/23 at Northwestern

I know I have mentioned this before but I’m not at all fond of using multiple quarterbacks. You pick a guy and go with him until he gives you a reason to make a michiganchange. But as of this writing my intel says that there are 3 or 4 guys who could take snaps for the Spartans. I actually had this team ranked significantly higher until I read that. At any rate, games at Notre Dame and Nebraska could make or break the season for Michigan St. And of course the annual in-state rivalry clash with the Wolverines is always big…and in 2013 it’s in East Lansing. You may be intrigued that I consider Northwestern to be an important game. The way I see it The Big Ten (which has 12 teams) has the potential to have 5 or 6 pretty good teams. Ohio St., Michigan, & Nebraska are legit Top 10 programs. The second tier consists of Wisconsin, Michigan St., & Northwestern, making the Spartans-Wildcats late November matchup likely a deciding factor when it comes to poll position and bowl bids.

 

 

23           LSU

Last Season:       10-3

Key Games:        8/31 vs. TCU, 9/28 at Georgia, 10/12 vs. Florida, 11/9 at Alabama, 11/23 vs. Texas A&M

It won’t take long for us to find out exactly what the Bayou Bengals are made of in 2013. The TCU Horned Frogs are a team that I am overlooking, but most other lsu_logo-9547pre-season polls seem to believe they are a solid Top 25 team. I expect LSU to defeat them, but there’ll be more to it than simply who wins and who loses. If LSU handles their business and beats TCU effortlessly it could bode well for the remainder of the year. However, if LSU struggles mightily and merely ekes out a victory it could portend future doom in the stacked SEC. The best thing I can say about a murderous schedule is that atleast LSU gets two weeks to prepare for tough games against Alabama and Texas A&M. Winning just two of the 5 key games I’ve listed should mean a 9 win season and solidify a Top 25 ranking.

 

 

24           Tulsa

Last Season:       11-3

Key Games:        9/14 at Oklahoma, 11/14 vs. Marshall

The defending Conference USA Champions are unlikely to take anyone by surprise this year but that’s okay. I see no reason why they can’t again win a revamped tulsaconference (their last in C-USA before joining the American Athletic Conference in 2014). I don’t expect them to defeat Oklahoma in mid-September, but that game could tell us a lot. If Tulsa gets blown out by 50 points then they are unlikely to sniff the Top 25 even if they win the conference. However, if they can be somewhat competitive against the Sooners…maybe a 38-21 type of contest…and win the remainder of their games then maybe they can sneak into the rankings.

 

 

25           BYU

Last Season:       8-5

Key Games:        9/7 vs. Texas, 10/25 vs. Boise St., 11/9 at Wisconsin, 11/23 at Notre Dame

I seem to have an odd BYU fetish. For two straight years I have had them ranked #10 in this pre-season poll. In 2011 they won 10 games but finished unranked and BYU_Cougarsin 2012 they went 8-5. The schedule is undoubtedly brutal. Winning even one of the key games noted above will be a difficult task…winning 2+ will be darn near impossible. So let’s be generous and say the Cougars go 1-3 in these games and even go a step further by predicting that they won’t get completely destroyed in the losses. Then it becomes atleast within the realm of possibility that they could win 8 or 9 games. And any team that could achieve that level of success under such demanding circumstances would deserve to be ranked.