Last weekend I was 4-1, while Zach went 1-4. That means the overall season lead has shifted. We’ll see how long that lasts.
Other random thoughts…
Thus far my NFL predictions haven’t panned out. I am particularly perplexed by the ineptitude of the Cincinnati Bengals & Jacksonville Jaguars, while being surprised at the success of the Minnesota Vikings. I am not at all shocked that league zebras are catching heat for their noticeable generosity toward the Kansas City Chiefs. The criticism is well deserved, and that, combined with what feels like a purposeful effort by the league to indulge Swifties, has quickly cast the defending Super Bowl Champions as villains. In the college ranks, Alabama & Texas have played better than I anticipated, while Florida St. has been a train wreck & Notre Dame has underwhelmed. And finally, as much as I hate to say it, anyone writing about Heisman odds who doesn’t have Travis Hunter at the top doesn’t know their ass from a hole in the ground. Heisman voters need to decide if the award exclusively goes to a quarterback on one of the top teams and be honest about that, or reward a player who performs at a high level on both sides of the ball and look past the fact that his team is average and his coach is a self-important blowhard.
My Season: 15-13
Zach’s Season: 13-15
Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) (-19)
When these two programs moved to the ACC a couple decades ago it was the beginning of the end for The Big East, and I’ll never forgive them for that. At any rate, the 2-2 Hokies are unlikely to defeat the unbeaten Hurricanes, but can they cover the points?? I think perhaps they might. Zach has been impressed with the ‘Canes, but cautions this has all the earmarks of a classic trap game. However, while he believes it might’ve been a different story in Blacksburg, VA, he has confidence in the home team to win big in their house.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Zach’s Pick: Miami (FL)
South Alabama at LSU (-22)
The 2-2 Jaguars out of the Sun Belt have grabbed some attention by outscoring their last two opponents 135-24. Meanwhile, the Bayou Bengals are riding at three game win streak after a season opening hiccup against USC. Death Valley on a Saturday night is no picnic, but I think South Alabama might keep things interesting for awhile before ultimately losing by four TDs. Zach isn’t a big fan of LSU coach Brian Kelly, but he’s willing to roll the dice on a dominant Tigers victory.
My Pick: LSU
Zach’s Pick: LSU
Georgia (-2) at Alabama
We’ll have alot of clarity after this game is over. The Bulldogs are 3-0 but barely escaped Kentucky with a win a couple weeks ago. Their legitimacy as the top team in the land has been questioned by some, with no shortage of those folks promoting Texas as the new #1 team. The Tide has rolled to three big wins thus far, making their coaching transition look seamless. ‘Bama has the home field, but I think Georgia gets their first regular season victory in this rivalry since 2007. Zach foresees a low scoring tug-of-war, with Georgia ultimately winning by 3-7 points.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Georgia
Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5)
Did you know that Vikings QB Sam Darnold is only 27 years old?? It feels like he should be older, probably because this is his fourth NFL team in seven seasons in the league. He is taking advantage of the opportunity that opened up when first round pick JJ McCarthy suffered a preseason knee injury. Minnesota is 3-0 & Darnold has the fifth best QBR in the NFL. The Packers are also playing with a backup QB after starter Jordan Love injured his knee a few weeks ago. Former Titans first round pick Malik Willis has led Green Bay to a 2-1 record, and he has the comfort of the home field. The question essentially becomes are the Vikings…and Darnold…for real?? Or has it all been smoke & mirrors?? The equation changes if Love is cleared to play, but that is up in the air right now. Armed with the information we have at this moment I have to believe the Vikes will ride the wave of momentum. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Minnesota
Zach’s Pick: Minnesota
Seattle at Detroit (-4.5)
The 2-1 Lions have not been as impressive as many (including yours truly) thought they’d be. Conversely, the 3-0 Seahawks have been sneaky good. RB Kenneth Walker has missed the past two games with an oblique injury. That’s an abdominal muscle in case you are curious. However, he is on pace to return for this game, and even if he doesn’t Zach Charbonnet has been solid in relief. Everyone will be focused on the chess match between Seattle’s offense & Detroit’s defense, but perhaps we need to pay attention to the opposite. If QB Jared Goff can get the ball to his receivers for a few big plays and RB Jahmyr Gibbs can help control the clock, it’d go a long way toward a victory for the home favorites. Zach believes things will be decided by a field goal or less.
Sincere apologies to my non-sports folks who thought your nightmare was over at the conclusion of our final round of football picks. Don’t worry…there are a few things percolating, but for now I’m still in football mode and have some things to get off my chest.
Happy trails to former Alabama coach Nick Saban. I don’t know that many outside the Crimson Tide bubble had any idea retirement was on the horizon, but perhaps it shouldn’t have been a total surprise. The man has nothing left to prove, and an old school traditionalist like Saban can’t be happy with the evolution of college football. Conference realignment. NIL. Transfer portal. One of the advantages an elite program like ‘Bama has had thru the years is depth. Their second & third string players are as good or better than most other teams starters. Now though, those talented backups can just go somewhere else to get more playing time. The SEC is never an easy path, but throw in Texas & Oklahoma and the road will be much tougher. Also, the playoff is growing from four to 12 teams, which means more opportunity but also more competition. It’s a grind, and going forward I don’t believe we’ll see many 80 year olds still coaching as in the glory days of Bobby Bowden & Joe Paterno. Selfishly I’m glad to see Saban go. It’s not that I dislike the man or hate Alabama, but dynasties aren’t much fun if they don’t involve your favorite team. The rest of us prefer a little variety, and their dominance had grown tedious. Perhaps they’ll be just as successful under new head coach Kalen DeBoer, but I suspect there will be a small decline, meaning the Tide will find themselves ranked in the #15-20 range for awhile, with a playoff berth far from guaranteed.
I don’t pat myself on the back often, mostly because the accuracy of my predictions isn’t generally something to brag about. However, sometimes I end up being on the right track at the wrong time. Two such occasions arose recently. First, in my 2022 NFL Preview I opined “at 70 years of age Pete Carroll is the oldest head coach in the NFL, and after a dozen years perhaps it is time for the Seahawks to move on”. As it turns out, I was simply ahead of the curve, with Carroll departing Seattle a year later. Secondly, my prediction that the Dallas Cowboys would have a losing season and head coach Mike McCarthy could be fired by Halloween obviously didn’t pan out, but the fact that they flamed out in the playoffs and McCarthy nearly got fired means I’m not completely off my rocker. I give him one…maybe two…more years.
Ironically, Zach lost our final bowl game pick, but I know he’s glad that his reverse psychology trick worked and the Michigan Wolverines won the National Championship. Which reminds me…I opined that “I believe Jim Harbaugh helps his alma mater win their first National Championship since 1997, and then, happy knowing that he left the program in better shape than he found it in nine years ago, heads back to the NFL”. I actually nailed it for once, with Harbaugh now the new coach of the LA Chargers. Anyway, I finished our picks with a 74-61 record, while Zach was 61-74. As always, I had alot of fun doing picks each week with my nephew and look forward to next season.
So the Final Four in the NFL are the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, & Detroit Lions. The Philadelphia Eagles, who I had winning the whole thing, are nowhere to be found after imploding down the stretch. I cannot…will not…even fathom cheering for the Ravens, and I’d prefer not to see the Niners share the record with my Steelers & the hated Patriots by winning their sixth Lombardi Trophy, so a Baltimore-‘Frisco Super Bowl is the least appealing scenario. If it happens though I’ll be a 49ers fan. Despite my disdain for mid…at best…Taylor Swift and penchant for preferring underdogs, I’m not at the point of hating the Chiefs yet. It’s impossible to dislike Andy Reid, and drunken Jason Kelce supporting his brother is entertaining. I assume that most fans without a dog in the fight are hoping to see the Lions in the Super Bowl, and it would be fresh & fun. Head coach Dan Campbell is a bit too aggressive for my taste, but I’m all in on Detroit if they can pull it off.
Continuing the theme of departing head coaches…..
I’m happy that Bill Belichick left the Patriots. I can’t do anything about the past or the fact that their “dynasty” existed, but he’s done and Brady retired, so the nightmare is over. Belichick might land somewhere else eventually because he isn’t content to walk away like Saban, but I think we all know by now that the guy who had a losing record in five seasons with the Cleveland Browns three decades ago is the real Bill Belichick, not the dude who fell into six Super Bowl titles with a talented QB & nefarious machinations that went unpunished.
As I sit here watching the Jets battle the Browns, enjoying the mid-holiday malaise between Christmas & New Year’s, I can’t help but believe this is one of the coolest times of the year. Christmas movies are over, but random college football games are on at totally arbitrary hours of the day. All the yuletide pressure & stress is behind us, and I’ve finally reached the age when going on out New Year’s Eve isn’t as appealing as it once was, so it is likely that I’ll just chill in my humble abode with my wacky neighbor eating pizza & watching The Ball drop on TV. There is also plenty of NFL action on Sunday, with only one game on Saturday and no Monday night game. I currently hold a comfortable lead in our picks, even though Zach (2-3), bested me (1-4) last week. I haven’t kept track of our bowl picks, so hopefully those don’t sink me below .500. Anyway, we’ll see you on the other side Manoverse. Happy New Year to all. In the words of Lt. Dan’s gal pal Long Limbs Lenore…”Don’t you just love New Year’s? You get to start all over. Everybody gets a second chance.”
My Season: 60-50
Zach’s Season: 51-59
Detroit at Dallas (-6)
The 11-4 Lions have clinched their first division title in over three decades, winning three out of four games in the process. They’d love to be the NFC’s top seed but it won’t be easy. Meanwhile, the 10-5 Cowboys will be in the playoffs, but they’re still chasing a division title and have lost two consecutive games for the first time all season. This is the Saturday night game and I hope it’s a great one. There is so much on the line that one can fairly assume the players will “leave it all out on the field”. It is a chance for Detroit to make a statement going into the postseason…an opportunity they need to grab with gusto. Zach thinks Dallas QB Dak Prescott is a legit League MVP candidate and might prove it with an upset victory, but he believes no matter what it’ll be very close either way.
My Pick: Detroit
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
Atlanta at Chicago (-3)
The 6-9 Bears don’t have much to play for other than pride, while the 7-8 Falcons play in such a weak division that they are still in the postseason conversation. Chicago has shown slight improvement in the second half of the season, but I still expect them to blow the whole deal up in the offseason and rebuild (again) with another new coach and most likely a different quarterback. Atlanta might keep the coaching staff intact, but will probably move on from QB Desmond Ridder. It’s The Windy City in December, so cold & dreary is a given, although it looks like it’ll be dry. I think we’re looking at low scoring, smashmouth football, with the underdogs scoring a mild upset. Zach has low expectations but thinks the Bears are on the upswing.
My Pick: Atlanta
Zach’s Pick: Chicago
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-3)
At the moment the Bucs hold a one game division lead, but the Saints could change that, in the process actually pulling the Falcons (if they win) into a three way tie, much like last season. I have no idea about tiebreakers or any of that jazz. I’m a fan of New Orleans QB Derek Carr and believe he’ll lead his team to a division title. Conversely, Zach thinks Tampa is peaking late and has more faith in QB Baker Mayfield.
My Pick: New Orleans
Zach’s Pick: Tampa Bay
Las Vegas at Indianapolis (-3)
I don’t know if Vegas’ Christmas defeat of the Chiefs means good things for them or just indicates big trouble in KC. They aren’t winning the AFC West, but are mathematically still in the playoff hunt. Indy would be the final AFC playoff team right now, but there’s work left to be done. I have more faith in the Raiders defense than anyone else involved in this game, so I think they grind out a single digit victory. Zach opines that the Colts’ offense isn’t on the same level as Kansas City, ergo Vegas should be able to shut them down even easier.
My Pick: Las Vegas
Zach’s Pick: Las Vegas
Green Bay at Minnesota (-2)
We knew it’d be a transitional season in Green Bay, but The Cheeseheads can’t be thrilled with the possibility of a losing season. However, I’ve seen some good things and believe they’ll be much improved next year. The Vikings are right about where I thought they’d be and would’ve been much better if not for some key injuries. Oddly enough both teams still have a path to the playoffs, although it is a tough road. It’s the Sunday night game on NBC, and if I can’t be kissing a beautiful woman or watching old drunk people with no rhythm try to dance then I suppose this isn’t the worst alternative. Ultimately I don’t foresee the Packers in the postseason, but they should win this game. Zach concurs.
I’ve been a proponent of a six team college playoff for a long time, and this season proves my case. We’ll kvetch more about the new 12 team playoff next year (I have my opinions), but clearly four teams were never enough. I feel bad for the Georgia Bulldogs, whose one loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship is certainly no worse than Texas’ October loss to Oklahoma, and especially undefeated Florida State, who did everything right by defeating each opponent they faced but got tossed aside due to an injury to their quarterback. There’s an old adage that says “defense wins championships”, but obviously it’s all about offense in this day & age of football being more of a television spectacle than anything else. The talking heads & committee shills like to prattle on about a team’s “resume” & “body of work”, but really they are captives of the moment, putting much more emphasis on how good (or flawed) a team is right now versus what they were in September. That is a terrible message in my opinion, that what you do at the beginning of the season (good or bad) doesn’t really matter. It’s one area where the NFL is a superior product, because the only thing that matters are the numbers…wins & losses count the same no matter when they occur. At any rate, Zach bested me last week, going 6-4 while I was 5-5. We’re not quite finished with college football though, as I’ve made a decision to change up how we address bowl season. Stay tuned. For now, it’s back to the NFL.
My Season: 54-41
Zach’s Season: 46-49
Detroit (-3) at Chicago
ESPN talking head Chris Berman use to call the NFC North The Norris Division, which is a now obsolete hockey reference. It looks like the 9-3 Lions will cruise to their first division title since 1993. Conversely, Bears fans need to stop trying to make Justin Fields happen. Perhaps he’ll evolve into a serviceable NFL quarterback, but he’s not a superstar and certainly needs a change of scenery. 4-8 Chicago has the home field, but I don’t think it matters. Zach agrees and considers Detroit a Super Bowl favorite.
My Pick: Detroit
Zach’s Pick: Detroit
LA Rams at Baltimore (-7)
I didn’t have high hopes for the Rams coming into the season, although I did opine that it was possible they could figure out what went wrong last year and fix it. At 6-6 the jury is still out, but they have looked decent at times. The 9-3 Ravens are living up to the hype thus far, much to the chagrin of Steeler Nation. With that in mind I have decided to lead with my heart instead of my head. Can the Rams pull off a big upset on the road?? I sure hope so. Conversely, Zach is more objective and considers Baltimore to be another Super Bowl favorite.
My Pick: LA Rams
Zach’s Pick: Baltimore
Seattle at San Francisco (-10.5)
Okay, I was wrong about the Niners’ QB situation. Brock Purdy has a firm grip on the job and his team doesn’t seem to have any prominent weaknesses. It looks like 9-3 ‘Frisco will win their third division title in four years. At 6-6 the Seahawks are still in the fight, but they need to turn it up a notch. When these teams met just a couple of weeks ago it wasn’t particularly competitive, and I don’t foresee much changing now. Zach believes the 49ers may be the most complete team in the league and thinks they’ll handle business.
My Pick: San Francisco
Zach’s Pick: San Francisco
Buffalo at Kansas City (-2.5)
In my season preview I opined that things wouldn’t be easy for the Bills this year, but I had no idea they’d be 6-6 and struggling to remain in wildcard contention. Almost as surprising is the recent struggles of the 8-4 Chiefs, who have lost three of their last five games. They still have a solid division lead, but their status as Super Bowl favorites is certainly in doubt, and they could struggle to make it to the AFC Title game. KC’s home field is amongst the most hostile in the league, so I believe they’ll escape with a close victory. Zach also predicts a close contest, but foresees Buffalo getting the mild upset.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Buffalo
Philadelphia at Dallas (-3.5)
When these teams met in Philly in early November the home team used a big third quarter to launch themselves to a five point win. The Eagles had looked rather sharp until getting blasted by San Francisco last week, while the Cowboys are riding the wave of a four game winning streak. The “experts” are slaves of the current moment and will view the game differently, but I still think Philadelphia is a better team. Zach believes the underdogs will rebound nicely from last week’s debacle and get a big upset on the road Sunday night.
First of all, I am making an unprecedented executive decision. Zach & I both chose Penn St. to atleast cover the 7 & a half point spread against Ohio St. The Nittany Lions scored a touchdown with 29 seconds left to draw within eight points. At that point they decided to go for a two point conversion that failed. They were going to need to recover an onside kick to have a chance, which didn’t work out. Had that been successful they would have needed a touchdown & extra point to win. However, if they would’ve simply kicked the extra point with 29 seconds remaining they would’ve needed that same thing, only for a tie & to force overtime. Essentially going for two only served to screw anyone for whom that one point (really a half point) might’ve been important. Since we do not promote gambling here 😉, have no money on the line, and both of us had the same pick, I am rewarding us with a win. At the end of the day that means I was 4-1, while Zach was 2-3. Let’s see what we can do this week.
My Season: 31-22
Zach’s Season: 25-28
Oregon (-7) at Utah
The 6-1 Utes got a rather significant victory over USC last weekend, while the 6-1 Ducks rebounded nicely from their only loss of the season. Both teams are still in the thick of the PAC 12 title hunt, with Utah getting an opportunity in a few weeks to do what Oregon couldn’t do – defeat Washington. As for this game, ESPN’s Gameday will be on site, adding a layer of excitement & relevance, as if a Top 15 matchup needed extra juice. Before the season I had Oregon ranked 20th & Utah 11th, but that was contingent upon the leadership of QB Cameron Rising. Unfortunately the young man’s recovery from a knee injury has been slower than expected and he’s going to be redshirted. Obviously the home underdogs in this matchup have fared just fine without him, but in a game of this caliber I simply have more confidence in the visiting team’s signal caller, Bo Nix. Zach forsees a shootout, but also has more confidence in Oregon’s offense.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
Georgia (-14.5) vs. Florida
It’s a “neutral site” game in Jacksonville, which is about 275 miles closer to Gainesville, FL than Athens, GA. The Bulldogs have been in a couple of competitive games but remain unbeaten, while the Gators are 5-2 and still riding the roller coaster. Is it a trap game for the defending National Champions?? Is the Florida-Georgia line a bit too much?? I say no to both questions. Zach doesn’t believe Georgia is as good as they were the past couple of years, and points out that the absence of tight end Brock Bowers is significant. At the end of the day he thinks they’ll snag another win, but believes Florida will keep it close.
My Pick: Georgia
Zach’s Pick: Florida
NY Jets (-3) vs. NY Giants
It’s the Battle of New York…or New Jersey. Either way, there is no home field advantage. Credit to the Jets for not folding like a cheap suit after Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury less than a minute into the season. At 3-3 they are atleast remaining respectable, although I don’t believe they’ll be a playoff team. Conversely, even though they’ve only won one less game, it already feels like a lost season for the 2-5 Giants. I don’t believe it’ll be a particularly compelling matchup, with the Jets winning by a touchdown. Zach concurs, opining that the game will likely be a snoozefest.
My Pick: NY Jets
Zach’s Pick: NY Jets
Baltimore (-8.5) at Arizona
The 5-2 Ravens lead their division, but have a very small margin of error. The 1-6 Cards may be getting QB Kyler Murray back soon, but not quite yet. Even when that happens I’m not sure it’ll make much of a difference. I thought a few months ago that they’d improve upon last season’s abysmal 4-13 record, but now I’m not confident they’ll reach that goal. As much as I’d love to see Baltimore lose I don’t think that’s what’ll happen. Zach predicts an epic five TD beat down.
My Pick: Baltimore
Zach’s Pick: Baltimore
Las Vegas at Detroit (-8.5)
It seems like some folks might be ready to jump off the Detroit bandwagon after they had their ass handed to them last week, but not me. They still hold a comfortable lead in their division, and we can’t forget the season opening upset of KC. Conversely, the 3-4 Raiders are going nowhere fast. This is Josh McDaniels’ second head coaching gig, and it’s clear that he’s a much better offensive coordinator. In my mind the only question about Monday night is whether or not the Lions will go full throttle enough to cover the points, and ultimately I believe they will. Zach has no hesitation in predicting the home team will win easily.
The big news from last weekend was “Neon” Deion Sanders & his Colorado Buffaloes backing up all the hype with action by upsetting TCU. Kudos to Zach for kinda sorta almost calling that in advance, which helped him to an impressive 7-1 week. In comparison I was 5-3, which I will proudly proclaim as not too shabby. We’re off to a rather decent beginning, and now will be able to throw the NFL into the mix. We’ll see how that works out.
My Season: 9-4
Zach’s Season: 9-4
Oregon (-6.5) at Texas Tech
The Ducks came out of the gate STRONG, hanging 81 points on Portland St. I hope the payday was worth it for the FCS Vikings. Conversely, the Red Raiders lost in overtime at Wyoming. Can we glean much out of those results?? Yes & no. I wouldn’t read too much into Oregon’s Week 1 beatdown. Sure, 81 points is impressive, but the bottom line is they did what they were supposed to do. What Tech’s loss means will be more accurately judged when we have a better idea how good Wyoming ends up being. I really don’t know exactly what to expect on Saturday evening, but I think the visitors are in for a much bigger fight than they faced in the season opener. Having said that, I feel like the favorites will win by 7-10 points. Zach isn’t impressed at all by Texas Tech, and he’s surprised by the points…surprised the oddsmakers think it’ll be that close.
My Pick: Oregon
Zach’s Pick: Oregon
Texas at Alabama (-7)
I don’t have ESPN right now because Disney is in a pissing contest with my cable provider. What that means, among other things, is that I won’t be able to watch this game. It’s unfortunate, but I’ll live. When these two teams met a year ago ‘Bama scored a last minute field goal for a one point road victory. If you believe the chatter there is a sense that the Longhorns are better this year while the Tide might not be as good. In my preseason rankings I opined “don’t be shocked if the ‘Horns march into Tuscaloosa in early September and upset ‘Bama”, and I stand by that. This is going to be a dogfight no matter who wins, and it’ll be closer than seven points. Zach believes Alabama is as good as they’ve ever been and thinks Texas is being overrated. He foresees a tight contest until the home team blows it open in the 4th quarter.
My Pick: Texas
Zach’s Pick: Alabama
Detroit at Kansas City (-6.5)
The NFL kicks off on Thursday night with the league standard bearer facing off against an up n’ comer with high expectations. The Lions haven’t won their division since 1993 and last appeared in the playoffs in 2016, but they’ve steadily assembled the ingredients for a team that could achieve both this season. The Chiefs have played in three of the past four Super Bowls, winning twice. I’m on board the Detroit hype train, but not this week. They’ll play hard and reinforce the positive outlook so many seem to have, but KC is still in their prime and that’s not changing anytime soon. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Kansas City
Zach’s Pick: Kansas City
Philadelphia (-3.5) at New England
Not to be outdone, the Eagles have played in two Super Bowls in six years, winning one of them. They’ve earned playoff berths in five of the past six seasons, and there’s no reason to believe there will be any significant decline. I’m not buying all of the Cowboys love and think Philly will scratch & claw their way to another division title. In contrast, the party seems to be over for the Patriots. Mac Jones is a decent QB, but he’s not the Second Coming of…well, you know. After going 8-9 a season ago I think it gets worse for New England before it gets better, and believe me when I say I won’t shed a tear. I really don’t think this game will be particularly close. Zach has the opposite outlook. He believes the Pats could actually win their division this year, and thinks that starts with a statement win that’d certainly surprise a lot of people.
My Pick: Philadelphia
Zach’s Pick: New England
Miami at LA Chargers (-3)
Are we overlooking these teams?? The Jets are a popular pick to win the AFC East, while the Bills are probably the safer bet. But what about Miami?? I’ve been perpetually flummoxed by the tepid response to the three year career of QB Tua Tagovailoa. In my opinion he’s a Top 10 quarterback. The Dolphins were 9-8 last season and earned a wildcard. I expect them to be slightly better in Coach McDaniel’s second year. The Chargers have a pretty good QB, with Justin Herbert flying way under the radar as opposed to folks openly questioning his abilities. I feel like the outcome rests mostly on defense, and believe the underdogs will make more plays on that side of the ball. Zach thinks Miami could be the biggest roadblock to New England winning the division. However, he also believes Herbert is the one that must prove himself, and foresees that effort getting off the ground with a big victory.
Has there ever been a Super Bowl rematch in back-to-back seasons?? Yes…once. The Dallas Cowboys beat the snot out of the Buffalo Bills in 1992 & ‘93. Could it happen again?? Perhaps. Who knows?? What I do know is that football is back and my weekends are about to become delightfully entertaining once again. For the 15th time we’re going to take a peak into the ol’ crystal ball and see if we can prophesy what to expect from the NFL this season. It’s an endeavor fraught with pitfalls & unknowns…injuries, coaching changes, rookies, aging veterans, free agency. Out of all the professional sports leagues the NFL is perhaps the most unpredictable, yet we do our best to do exactly that. It’s crazy, and probably kind of dumb…but it is also lots of fun, for me anyway. I hope you enjoy many wonderful Sundays, Mondays, & Thursdays in the next several months, and as always I discourage any wagering based on what you read here because I really have no idea what I’m talking about.
East
Miami Dolphins (9-8) 10-7
New York Jets (7-10) 10-7
Buffalo Bills (13-3) 10-7
New England Patriots (8-9) 7-10
A year ago I predicted “look out for the Jets in 2024”. They decided to accelerate the timeline by acquiring QB Aaron Rodgers & RB Dalvin Cook, amongst other pieces of the puzzle. They are clearly in Win Now mode and probably have a two year window. Last season I wasn’t too sure about new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, but I have a more positive opinion now. Miami has quietly put together a good team that’ll make some noise, and it feels like a pivotal season for Tua Tagovailoa in his 4th year under center. The Jets & Dolphins ascending means that the Bills won’t cruise to a division title like they did last year, so a lot of folks might view them as disappointing despite a solid season. I’m a bit hesitant to stick a fork in the Patriots, but when a potential quarterback controversy involves Mac Jones & Bailey Zappe I don’t think anyone should be expecting much.
West
Kansas City Chiefs (14-3) 16-1
Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) 8-9
Las Vegas Raiders (6-11) 2-15
Denver Broncos (5-12) 2-15
There is absolutely nothing to be excited about in this division if you aren’t a Chiefs fan. I wonder if receiver Davante Adams cries himself to sleep at night pondering the fact that he bolted Green Bay, leaving Aaron Rodgers in the dust in exchange for his buddy Derek Carr, only to see that experiment fail miserably and Carr to be ran out of town?? QB Jimmy Garoppolo had foot surgery in the off-season and might not be 100% out of the gate, which is horrible news for the Raiders. The Broncos have said all the right things about QB Russell Wilson, but it’s hard to feel encouraged after he had the worst year of his career in 2022. Sean Payton is now the head coach and that’s cool, but when a franchise is putting everything on the shoulders of the coach because no one is too sure about the players that’s not good. I’d rather have a stacked roster with an unproven coach like the Dolphins and Jets. The Chargers are the only thing standing between Kansas City and the most effortless division title in the history of football, and trust me when I tell you that’s not causing Patrick Mahomes & Andy Reid to lay awake at night.
North
Cincinnati Bengals (12-4) 11-6
Baltimore Ravens (10-7) 9-8
Pittsburgh Steelers (9-8) 9-8
Cleveland Browns (7-10) 5-12
Can the Ravens stay healthy?? That seems to be their biggest issue in recent years. Will QB Lamar Jackson earn the five year/$260 million contract he maneuvered the team into after initially demanding a trade back in March?? Ehhh…I’m just not that impressed with Baltimore. They always receive a bunch of hype from the talking heads then fall short of lofty expectations. I see no reason that’ll be any different this year. They’ll give the Bengals a legit fight for the crown, but at the end of the day Cincy will win the division once again. Most “experts” aren’t expecting much from my Steelers, but with Kenny Pickett now firmly ensconced as the starting quarterback, some key additions on both sides of the ball in free agency & the draft, and everyone betting against them I believe they’ll be in the playoff hunt until the end and atleast protect Coach Tomlin’s much ballyhooed achievement of never having a losing season. Most assume that the Browns will be better with Deshaun Watson under center from the jump, but they were only 3-3 in the games he started a season ago. Sorry Cleveland fans, but I don’t foresee a happy ending for you.
South
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8) 12-5
Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1) 7-10
Tennessee Titans (7-10) 6-11
Houston Texans (3-13-1) 5-12
This is it Jags fans!! You’ve made it thru the abyss. After 15 years of wandering in a desert of futility with some occasional glimpses of mediocrity (and that one inexplicable playoff run in 2007) Jacksonville enters the 2023 season with a decent head coach, QB & former #1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence in his prime, a potentially good defense, and competing in one of the worst divisions in the league. There’s no way they can screw this up, right?? As predicted the Colts went nowhere with Matt Ryan as their signal caller, and now they’re hitching the wagon to rookie Anthony Richardson. That might pay dividends in the future but there will be growing pains. I expect defenses to load the box against unhappy RB Jonathan Taylor (if he isn’t traded), so fantasy owners beware. The Titans might have a slightly better quarterback room with veteran Ryan Tannehill & first round pick Will Levis, but they also will rely heavily on pounding the rock with Derrick Henry, who has alot of miles on those tires. The signing of free agent receiver DeAndre Hopkins would’ve been impressive…in 2018. Now?? Ehhhh 🤷🏻♂️. If either defense in Tennessee or Indianapolis can rise to the occasion and carry their team perhaps they’ll be slightly more successful, but I’m not expecting much. I actually like the direction the Texans are headed, but need to see how first rounder CJ Stroud adjusts to the NFL, or if he can even keep the starting QB job. I have good vibes about new head coach (and former Texans linebacker) DeMeco Ryans. There are some nice pieces on the Houston defense, including #3 overall pick Will Anderson (Kevin Costner had to be somewhere smiling at those draft maneuvers), but it’s going to take this team some time. You’ll see signs of progress, but it might be another year or two before we see the payoff.
A year ago I was rather dismissive of Giants’ QB Daniel Jones, who proceeded to lead his team to the playoffs & earn a four year contract extension worth $160 million. I’m not going to underestimate the Giants again, especially given the off-season acquisition of tight end Darren Waller in free agency and a solid draft. The Commanders are still treading water and have yet another new quarterback in Sam Howell, their fifth round pick in 2022. Actually, they’ve made more news off the field, as embattled owner Daniel Snyder finally sold the team this summer. My outlook for them might be a bit optimistic, but I like head coach Ron Rivera and the roster isn’t terrible. The Dallas Cowboys will make me look like a prophet or a fool. Head coach Mike McCarthy has gone 12-5 each of the past two seasons, but I foresee a huge decline and the end of his tenure. He may not last past Halloween. It’s not that they’re a bad team…I just think they’ll lose several close games when the ball simply doesn’t bounce their way. At the end of the day I believe the Eagles will win the division for the fourth time in seven years. They won’t seem as elite as a year ago and may have to go on the road at some point in the postseason, but ultimately I foresee a much more satisfying conclusion.
West
Seattle Seahawks (9-8) 9-8
San Francisco 49ers (13-4) 9-8
Arizona Cardinals (4-13) 8-9
Los Angeles Rams (5-12) 7-10
In 2022 I thought this would be one of the best divisions in the league, but the Rams & Cards were terrible, Seattle was just average, and ‘Frisco ran away with the title. I don’t think the division overall will be any better this season, but it might be more competitive. Former WV Mountaineer Geno Smith finally proved why he was a second round draft pick a decade ago and is the incumbent starting quarterback for the Seahawks. He has plenty of weapons on offense, and the defense is talented on paper. That talent didn’t back it up on the field last year though, so it’s something to keep an eye on. Seattle may become an afterthought if the 49ers QB situation solidifies, but who knows if former Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy will continue to shine?? 2021 first rounder Trey Lance & much traveled former first round pick Sam Darnold (now with his third team in six years) are around if Purdy falters, but that doesn’t inspire much confidence. ‘Frisco is a talented team, but I feel like they won’t be as successful as a year ago. I don’t know what to say about Arizona & Los Angeles, except that I see no reason to expect dramatic improvement, although it should be noted that the Rams were in the Super Bowl just a couple of years back so it’s possible they could figure out what went sideways and fix it.
North
Detroit Lions (9-8) 11-6
Minnesota Vikings (13-4) 10-7
Chicago Bears (3-14) 7-10
Green Bay Packers (8-9) 6-11
Carpe diem Lions!! Much like the Jacksonville Jaguars the brain trust in Detroit has quietly been building a team with tremendous potential, led by a young defense that includes budding stars Aidan Hutchinson, Cam Sutton, and rookie linebacker Jack Campbell. I really like head coach Dan Campbell, who went 9-8 a year ago, a six game improvement over his first year in the Motor City. The most significant question Campbell must answer is whether or not he & offensive coordinator Ben Johnson can elevate Jared Goff into a quarterback befitting the #1 overall pick that he was seven years ago. The biggest off-season news came out of Green Bay, who won’t have a Hall of Fame caliber quarterback starting for them for the first time since 1991. It might be a rough couple of years on the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau Field, but don’t worry Cheeseheads…they’ll get things figured out eventually. Can the same be said for the Bears?? I don’t believe Justin Fields will ever be a great pro QB, and I’m not impressed with his supporting cast or the Chicago defense. This isn’t the ‘85 Bears by a long shot. I must apologize once again for underestimating the Vikings last season, a mistake I won’t make again. Having said that, I think they’ll drop off just enough for Detroit to take the division.
South
New Orleans Saints (7-10) 9-8
Carolina Panthers (7-10) 6-11
Atlanta Falcons (7-10) 5-12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9) 5-12
You might’ve heard that Tom Brady finally retired. Thank God. That’s great news for everyone except the Bucs, who will start Baker Mayfield at quarterback. That’s like moving out of a million dollar mansion into an efficiency apartment. Even the Colts are laughing. I’m not sure what the hell is going on in Atlanta. I really like running back Tyler Allgeier, who set the franchise record for most rushing yards by a rookie. Apparently that didn’t impress the powers-that-be though, as they spent their first round pick on RB Bijan Robinson out of Texas. Second year QB Desmond Ridder will be running the show, and he has a few young weapons with potential. That group is going to need time to mature, and in the meantime their veteran laden defense has to kick it up a notch. I have low expectations of #1 overall pick & new Panthers QB Bryce Young. At 5ft10 he is the same size as Arizona Cardinals’ quarterback Kyler Murray, but his 4.43/40 isn’t as fast as Murray’s 4.38. RB Miles Sanders is a nice addition, but honestly there’s nothing to be excited about on either side of the ball. By default that leaves the Saints to ascend to the top of the division. Head coach Dennis Allen enters his second season with new QB Derek Carr, some decent weapons, a solid offensive line, and a veteran defense that could surprise people.
Okay, so…I’m running out of time in a busy week. As usual it was a bad idea to pick a Thursday night game, but it is what it is. Both of us are still under .500, so hopefully we can improve on that this weekend. Keep an eye out for our college bowl picks as well. Enjoy.
My Season: 49-50
Zach’s Season:46-53
San Francisco (-3.5) at Seattle
Is it possible that Mr. Irrelevant could become the next big time NFL quarterback?? That might be a tad optimistic, but Brock Purdy is impressing people in ‘Frisco thus far. At 7-6 the Seahawks have been far better than I anticipated, thanks on part to QB Geno Smith. Still, they are a couple of games behind the Niners in the division, so this feels like a must win. I think the home field is huge and will rattle Purdy. Conversely, despite their quarterback woes, Zach sees ‘Frisco as being on another level right now.
My Pick: Seattle
Z’s Pick: San Francisco
Miami at Buffalo (-7.5)
The talking heads are once again questioning Tua Tagovailoa, who has struggled the past two games. Conversely, though they haven’t been perfect, few are doubting Buffalo’s Super Bowl credentials. Inclement weather could be a factor, but that still favors the Bills. Despite believing they’ve looked a bit sluggish Zach still thinks Buffalo will overcome the Dolphins’ speed at the skill positions on their way to a dominant win.
My Pick: Buffalo
Z’s Pick: Buffalo
NY Giants at Washington (-4.5)
Neither team is winning the division, but I suppose one or the other could earn a wildcard. I have been surprised by the Giants’ relative success, but I still think Washington is a slightly better team. Zach thinks it’s a pretty even matchup, and he likes New York to snag a close win.
My Pick: Washington
Z’s Pick: NY Giants
Tennessee at LA Chargers (-3)
The Titans will win the AFC South unless they completely collapse down the stretch. The Chargers got a huge win last Sunday night and are certainly in play for a wildcard. Can they get two victories in a row?? I don’t believe so. Ball control is important…Tennessee wins in the trenches. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Tennessee
Z’s Pick: Tennessee
Detroit at NY Jets (-1)
I told you the Lions would pleasantly surprise people this year, and I also said that the Jets were on the rise but aren’t there quite yet. Both assessments have proven accurate. I don’t even know who’s playing quarterback for the home team this week though, and that’s an issue. I’m predicting a dominant Detroit performance. Zach agrees.
College football’s conference championship weekend wasn’t kind to either one of us. Zach had his worst week of the season, going 2-8, while Yours Truly broke even at 5-5, which was good enough to recapture the season lead. Stay tuned for our College Football Bowl-a-Palooza in the near future, but as far as these picks go it’s all NFL all the time from here on out.
My Season: 46-48
Zach’s Season: 45-49
NY Jets at Buffalo (-9.5)
The 9-3 Bills are humming along just as most expected, and are the odds on Super Bowl favorites. However, they’ve got some work to do. Meanwhile, the 7-5 Jets are a little ahead of schedule and have a realistic opportunity to make the playoffs if a few dominoes fall in the right direction. One of those things has to be their very own quarterback. Has New York given up on Zach Wilson?? Is Mike White, a 2018 5th round pick from Western Kentucky, the answer?? Can either QB lead their team to the postseason?? A win this week would certainly help, but I don’t think it’ll happen. The only question in my mind is whether Buffalo will cover, and I believe that is likely. Zach is concerned about the points, but not enough to pick the underdogs.
My Pick: Buffalo
Z’s Pick: Buffalo
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-6)
In the previous installment of The Battle of Ohio the Bengals posted an easy 19 point victory in Cleveland. But that was six weeks ago, way before noted massage enthusiast Deshaun Watson returned to be the Browns QB. Watson may make things a bit more interesting (on the field 👀), but at the end of the day I expect Cincinnati to get the happy ending. Zach thinks Cincy is hitting their stride & QB Joe Burrow is beginning to resemble the guy he was a year ago.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Z’s Pick: Cincinnati
Houston at Dallas (-17)
The 1-10-1 Texans received three first round draft picks (the first of which they flipped for additional picks and took a guard for their O-line) in trading the aforementioned Watson, so they’re in the early stages of a total rebuild. Conversely, the 9-3 Cowboys are right about where I expected them to be…awaiting an early playoff exit that will surprise absolutely no one. Let’s face it…Houston isn’t winning this game. The only debate is whether the generally underwhelming Dallas offense can repeat last week’s performance in which they layeth the smacketh down on the hapless Colts & put 54 points on the board. I don’t think they’ll do that two weeks in a row, so I’m predicting only a two TD victory. Conversely, Zach likes the Cowboys’ solid rushing attack to lead then to another huge win.
My Pick: Houston
Z’s Pick: Dallas
Minnesota at Detroit (-2)
Have I apologized to the Vikings?? I can’t remember. I predicted Minnesota would be 4-13…instead they are currently 10-2 & will easily win what ESPN’s Chris Berman used to call the Norris Division. I was a little more accurate in my assessment of the Lions, opining that the Lions would be a pleasant surprise, and at 5-7, which is already more wins than a year ago, I think they’ve lived up to mildly positive expectations. I’m a little surprised by the points because even though Detroit has the home field I wouldn’t think they’d be favored. Do the folks in Vegas know something we don’t?? I know the visitors have a few injuries, but doesn’t every NFL team have the same problem this time of year?? Anyway, I’d love to see Detroit defend their home field, but for once I’ve got to allow my brain to overrule my heart. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Minnesota
Z’s Pick: Minnesota
Miami (-3.5) at LA Chargers
Tua Tagavailoa is the starting QB on my dynasty team, and I’ve watched with some level of intrigue all season as talking heads intermittently question his abilities. Isn’t the proof in the pudding though?? The Dolphins are 8-4, just a Buffalo collapse away from leading the division. I’m not sure that’s going to happen, but I like their chances of securing a wildcard. Don’t count out the Chargers either. At 6-6 they’re not winning their division, and a playoff berth will be an uphill climb, but they could easily be 2 or 3 victories better if a few balls had bounced their way. It’s a really tough call because I appreciate what both teams bring to the table. That being said, The Voices are telling me an upset is brewing on Sunday night. Zach thinks turnovers could make the difference & believes in Miami to get the job done.
As has become our annual tradition I want to encourage any non-sports fans in The Manoverse to stick with me. These picks dominate the landscape each autumn, and it doesn’t help that I’ve not been as prolific for…well, awhile. I have lots of things in my head, but motivation has been a huge problem for various reasons. I’ll try to do better going forward. In football related matters you’ll notice that we’re light on college action and leaning more into the NFL, which is unusual for September. I expect that’ll change next week though.
My Season: 11-13
Zach’s Season: 14-10
Baylor at Iowa State (-2.5)
In my preseason poll I ranked Baylor 7th but noted that they’d need to be road warriors to get there, and now here we are. The Bears have beaten up two cupcakes and narrowly lost to BYU in overtime, while the Cyclones are 3-0 with a close win over in-state rival Iowa. This is probably going down to the wire with special teams & turnovers playing a key role in the outcome, and I’ve got to stick to my earlier thought process. I think Baylor gets a tight road victory. Zach foresees a defensive slug fest, and he likes State’s defense just a little better.
My Pick: Baylor
Z’s Pick: Iowa St.
Florida at Tennessee (-11)
I consulted multiple sources because I just couldn’t believe the points, but what you see is accurate. The Vols are 3-0 and ranked 11th, scoring two blowout wins against MAC competition & an impressive overtime road victory over the Pitt Panthers. Conversely, the 2-1 Gators appear to be riding a roller coaster, with a huge season opening upset of Utah, a loss to SEC rival Kentucky, and a tougher than it should’ve been escape against in-state challenger South Florida. Still, as impressive as Tennessee has been & as many questions as there may be about Florida, eleven points seems a bit much, even with the game being played in Knoxville. Zach thinks Florida had looked sluggish, but he agrees the points are too much.
My Pick: Florida
Z’s Pick: Florida
Buffalo (-4) at Miami
The Bills are firing on all cylinders right now, and are certainly one of the two or three best teams in the NFL. However, the Dolphins have been impressive as well. Receiver Tyreek Hill has breathed new life into Miami’s offense, and I’ve been shouting from the rooftops for awhile now that it’s way too soon to give up on QB Tua Tagovailoa. The home crowd is going to be jacked for this one, and it would be a major statement win for a Fins team that hasn’t played in the postseason since 2016. Not only is Zach also picking the upset, but he thinks this could be an AFC Championship preview.
My Pick: Miami
Z’s Pick: Miami
Detroit at Minnesota (-6.5)
I told y’all that the Lions would be the surprise of the NFC North, and so far they’ve looked as good as a 1-1 team can. As a matter of fact, all four teams in the division…including the Vikings…are tied. This will be the beginning of the separation, when we differentiate the contenders from the pretenders. I don’t believe that either club will be playoff bound or even finish with a winning record, but I do think Detroit is the better team. Zach isn’t totally sure he knows the outcome, but he definitely thinks it’ll be closer than a touchdown.
My Pick: Detroit
Z’s Pick: Detroit
San Francisco (-1) at Denver
‘Frisco lost starting QB Trey Lance to a broken ankle, but, while that’d be a season killer for most teams, I don’t believe it makes all that much difference in this case. Lance may end up being a decent NFL quarterback, but I have my doubts and don’t think he was ready yet anyway. Jimmy Garoppolo might not be the next Joe Montana, but he’s capable enough to step right back into the starter role without the team missing a beat. The Niners should count their lucky stars they didn’t trade him. On the flip side the Broncos haven’t looked as impressive as I expected with Russell Wilson behind center. I feel like both teams are going to need their defenses to carry them, and to that end I foresee a low scoring contest decided by field goals, time of possession, field position, & penalties. Something like a 15-13 kind of game, with the visiting favorites escaping with a win. Zach likes the Jimmy G. story and thinks he’ll lead his team to victory.
The Manofesto 