Boise State University

2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

 

The less said about last week the better. I went 1-6, with my only “win” a Pyrrhic victory at best (Philly beat Baltimore by 1 point, not covering the 2 point spread and making my choice of the Ravens technically correct). So, in classic mid-life crisis fashion I have decided to overcompensate. My record for the season thus far stands at 7-14, and even though I have absolutely nothing riding on these picks except my own pride I feel compelled to try to improve my winning percentage. Plus when I looked at this week’s slate of games that seemed interesting I just couldn’t narrow it down to 7. Therefore you get bonus picks today!! Don’t you feel blessed??

 

 

 

BYU                                       at                            Boise St. (-7.5)

I had both of these teams ranked in my pre-season Top 25, the Cougars at #10 & the Broncos at #25. Thus far the results have been mixed. BYU stands at 2-1 while Boise St. is 1-1, and neither is ranked although a couple of victories could change that status quickly. This is a total vibe game for me. I feel like Boise is declining while BYU is on the rise. Both are usually underdogs when going up against highly regarded power conference competition like Notre Dame or Michigan St., but against one another they seem pretty evenly matched on paper. The Voices are screaming loudly on this one, and they are telling me to go with the underdog BYU, so that’s what I’ll do.

 

 

Kentucky                             at                            Florida (-24.5)

I have no doubt that the Gators will win this game. The question is will they cover the spread?? UK enters the contest an unimpressive 1-2, while the Gators are not only 3-0 but have actually played competitive opponents like Texas A&M and Tennessee. However, in their one “cupcake” game Florida, while victorious, only beat Bowling Green by 13 points. That seems significant, and gives me no reason to believe that they can whip a team…even the lowly Wildcats…by 3+ touchdowns. Therefore, even though I think they’ll lose the game, I’m picking Kentucky to cover the spread.

 

 

Missouri                              at                            South Carolina (-10)

The Tigers didn’t fare so well in their SEC debut a couple of weeks ago, getting hammered by the Georgia Bulldogs. Meanwhile, Steve Spurrier looks like he has the Gamecocks firing on all cylinders, though it must be pointed out that at 3-0 they haven’t really been tested by a strong opponent thus far. I think South Carolina easily passes this first test, while Missouri’s rough welcome tour continues.

 

 

California                            at                            USC (-16)

The talking heads and other pundits all had the Trojans at the top of their rankings as early as last spring. Yours truly didn’t buy the hype and placed them at #7 in my pre-season Top 25. I must admit that I didn’t think it’d be Stanford that crushed USC’s national title hopes, but that’s exactly what occurred last weekend. That’s probably bad news for the 1-2 Cal Golden Bears, because an angry home team isn’t someone you want to go up against. However, the question again is will the Trojans cover what is a pretty hefty spread?? Another factor that must be considered is the Bears’ state-of-mind after coming oh-so-close only to fall short against Ohio State last week. I think the timing is very bad for the underdogs and extremely good for the favorites, who I am picking to win & cover.

 

 

Michigan                             at                            Notre Dame (-6)

This will be one of the centerpiece games on Saturday night’s prime time slate. Both teams are ranked in the Top 20, with Notre Dame coming in a not all that shocking 3-0 for the first time in a decade, while the Wolverines are 2-1 but lost to the only legitimate opponent they have faced so far (#1 Alabama). The 2011 contest between these two was a classic, with three TDs being scored in the final minute & a half, the last one a game winning pass from Michigan QB Denard Robinson. We should all be so blessed to see such another exciting game this year, but that may be a bit too much to ask. I will probably regret this, but I’m going to pick Michigan here. As long as Robinson is still running the show the Wolverines can never be counted out.

 

 

Arizona                                                at                            Oregon (-23.5)

Have the boys in Vegas not been paying attention?? Yes, the high powered Oregon offense has averaged 54 points per game in route to a 3-0 record. But they haven’t played anyone!! Meanwhile, as much as I hate to give Fraudriguez even one iota of credit, it must be said that the Wildcats have looked pretty good in averaging 46 points per game and going 3-0 themselves, including a big victory over Oklahoma State. So I am more than a bit surprised that the Ducks have been made 3+ touchdown favorites. I could understand 8…maybe 10…even 12…but 23 & a half?? That seems a bit shady to me. Either Oregon has built up a lot of respect in the course of their recent success, or strange things are afoot at the Circle K. Either way I’m not buying what they are trying to sell. I think this’ll be a really good, high scoring, eminently entertaining game. Oregon deserves to be the favorites and will likely win, but not by that much. I’ll take Arizona.

 

 

NY Giants (-1.5)                                at                            Carolina

The Giants have gotten a lot of media attention this week due to Coach Coughlin’s temper tantrum over Tampa’s odd end-of-game tactics last weekend, but that isn’t going to help them against Cam Newton. In my NFL prognostications I picked Carolina to go all the way to the NFC championship game, and this would be the perfect game to announce their presence to the world. Both teams are 1-1 (as is over 60% of the league), so this is the time to make a statement and get things headed in a positive direction. It’s still very early, but the difference between 1-2 and 2-1 should not be undervalued. New York will be without the services of RB Ahmad Bradshaw, and Carolina will have the home field in front a captive audience for an NFL Network Thursday night broadcast. Newton has already had his “coming out party” and is no secret at this point, but I think it would be accurate to say that the masses have bought into just him and not his team. This is a golden opportunity to change that and I think the Panthers will take advantage of it.

 

 

Houston (-2)                      at                            Denver

Is Peyton Manning back?? Well, at first we thought the answer was a resounding yes. But then last week was a huge “not so fast my friend” kind of thing. There are whispers that Manning cannot yet throw the ball deep. If that is the case then smart defensive coordinators will take advantage of it with a variety of blitzes daring him to launch downfield to receivers in single coverage. However, if the Broncos can construct the game plan in such a way that the long ball isn’t necessary then it may be a moot point. Houston is 2-0, but really how much can be gleaned from the fact that they’ve beaten up on the Miami Dolphins & Jacksonville Jaguars?? That’s the NFL equivalent to defeating two directional schools from 1-AA. I think the altitude in Denver combined with an angry & determined Peyton Manning spells doom for the Texans.

 

 

New England                     at                            Baltimore (-3)

This is a preview of my projected AFC championship game. The Ravens looked impressive crushing the Cincinnati Bengals in week one, but last week they got outyanked in the final two minutes by the Philadelphia Eagles. The Patriots also started out well, easily beating the Tennessee Titans a couple of weeks ago,yet last week they needed 10 points in the final 7 minutes to make a loss to the Arizona Cardinals look close. As much as I would LOVE to see pretty boy Tom Brady go down in flames twice in a row I just don’t think that’s going to happen. If the Cardinals would have played along and lost last week like they were supposed to I might have been tempted to go with Baltimore here given the home field advantage, but since I am thoroughly convinced that Bill Belichick is some sort of evil robot from the future sent back in time to wreak havoc on the NFL I think the Patriots will be out to make a statement after last week’s shocking loss and will win going away.

 

 

 

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2012 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 1

 

Over a year ago I mentioned that I wanted to do a weekly football pick ‘em type of thing here at The Manofesto. However, both the 2011 college & pro seasons got underway without me implementing the plan, so I decided to wait ‘til next year. Well…the time has come. The most glorious time of the year…football season…is upon us. It really is the only thing that makes summer slipping away more tolerable. My plan at the moment is to pick 7 games each week. Normally it will be a mix of NCAA & NFL games, but since the NFL doesn’t begin its season for another week our initial go round will consist of 7 college games. These games are picked at random by me based purely on what I view as interesting, competitive, and entertaining. I was a little leery of the first week of college football simply because it is traditionally chock full of powerhouse vs. cupcake matchups that are in no way interesting, competitive, or entertaining. Fortunately I was able to choose 7 games that do frost my cupcake and I will be interested to see how it all plays out.

One thing that readers can expect from your humble Potentate of Profundity is accountability. I am not like those twits on ESPN (Kirk Herbstreit, Lee Corso, Mark May, etc.) who act like a bunch of know-it-all experts and then conveniently forget to ever mention their picks again when they are proven to be completely wrong. I will keep track of my hits & misses. I will own up to it when I am wrong. This whole thing is just for fun, but I cannot deny that there is some sense of pride on the line as I match wits with the talking heads that get paid big bucks to make these kinds of prognostications. Originally I did not plan to utilize point spreads and just wanted to choose straight up winners, but as I pondered the possibilities I figured out that the point spread adds an element of complexity that makes the process that much more enjoyable. I am well aware that the point spread is also meant to be used for gambling, something that I am not going to promote. I’ve done it before and I am sure that I’ll do it again in the future, but I am also well aware that gambling is one more thing…like alcohol, drugs, food, & sex…that one can easily become addicted to and that has destroyed careers, families, and lives. Remember folks…everything in moderation with God in the driver’s seat, okay?? Now on with the picks!!

 

 

Tennessee  (-3) vs.  N.C. State

I’m a bit surprised that the folks in Vegas are favoring the Vols here. Maybe when I put them in my pre-season Top 25 it wasn’t such a shot in the dark after all?? At any rate, since it is a given that their SEC schedule will be tough that makes it imperative for Tennessee to win their non-conference games if they want to have any shot of fulfilling my prophecy and returning to prominence. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack is usually one of the ACC’s more solid yet unspectacular teams. They don’t get a lot of publicity but they always seem to get the job done and go bowling at season’s end. It is interesting to note that this is a neutral site game being played in Atlanta’s Georgia Dome. I’m going with the talent & experienced leadership of UT QB Tyler Bray to pull this one out and cover the spread too.

 

Boise St.  at  Michigan St. (-7)

I had the Broncos just sneaking into my preseason Top 25’s last spot, but that is more a function of the media’s love affair with them combined with the relative ease of their schedule due to playing in the notably unnotable Mountain West. I don’t think former QB Kellen Moore will be easily replaced, which means there might be a bump or two in the road, especially early on. Meanwhile, over in Lansing, the Spartans are also faced with finding a new signal caller since former 3 year starter Kirk Cousins is now backing up Robert Griffin III with the Washington Redskins. That would seem to make this game a wash…and a very tough call. This is an opportunity for Boise St. to open lots of eyes and shut lots of mouths, because I know there are many naysayers like me who still aren’t quite convinced they belong at the big table with the adults. I am usually a sucker for the underdog, but I think that Spartan Stadium will be rockin’ and will give the guys in green the edge. Will they cover?? Good question. The vibes are telling me that this might be decided by a field goal, which means that I like Michigan St. to win, but I’ll take Boise St. & the points.

 

Northwestern (-1.5)  at  Syracuse

Will this game be fun to watch?? Probably not. I hate watching TV games broadcast from the Carrier Dome. I can’t explain it…it just doesn’t feel like a good football atmosphere. It has always seemed like kind of a boring place even when the Orange were a winning team. And since they have been horrible for most of the past decade and the outcome of most games seemed like a foregone conclusion it was even worse. When a lower tier Big 10 team is the opponent…well, that is an excellent recipe for either a lot of channel flipping or a fine afternoon nap. At any rate, I went out on a limb and put Syracuse in my pre-season Top 25 and said that they might win 8 or 9 games. Getting a win here would sure be a nice way to get off on the right foot, and I think they’ll do it. I’m going with the Orangemen to win this game outright.

 

Clemson (-3)  at Auburn

The last time we saw Clemson on a football field they were getting mauled in the Orange Bowl by my WVU Mountaineers 70-33. That kind of defeat will either haunt your dreams or piss you off…maybe both. I do really like junior QB Tahj Boyd and sophomore WR Sammy Watkins, but the question is can the defense stop anybody?? I put Auburn in my pre-season top 25 because it wasn’t that long ago that they were going undefeated & had a Heisman winning quarterback, and even when they “fell off” last year they still won 8 games. This boils down to 2nd tier ACC vs. 2nd tier SEC, and I think we all know where the smart money is in that battle. With this game being played at Jordan-Hare Stadium I have to give the edge to Auburn. I mean really…all they have to do is watch the Orange Bowl film.

 

Iowa (-9)  at  Northern Illinois

On paper a Big 10 vs. MAC matchup usually looks pretty lopsided, and most of the time it is. However, I really like this Northern Illinois team. Their games were rather fun to watch in 2011 and they have been a dominant force in their conference for several years. Iowa, on the other hand, is a hit & miss program. Maybe they’ll win 6 or 7 games and sneak into a forgettable bowl game, or maybe they’ll win 10 or 11 games and compete for the conference title and a spot in the Rose Bowl. They are never really bad, but they are rarely mentioned in the same conversation with elite Big 10 foes Michigan, Ohio St., Wisconsin, and Nebraska. It is interesting to me that this game is being played at Huskie Stadium, which just might be the tipping point. Those fans will know how important defeating a Big 10 opponent would be, and they’ll be ready. I am going to wuss out of picking an outright victory for the underdogs, but I’ll take Northern Illinois and the points.

 

Miami (-2) at  Boston College

Ahhh…a dreaded ACC matchup. The ACC is even more boring to watch than the Big East, the conference these two traitors ditched several years back. I don’t know about all the financial stuff, but on the surface that move has looked like a poor one for both teams, as they have both become lost in the shuffle and gotten far less love from the media than conference darlings Florida St., Georgia Tech, NC State, and Virginia Tech. I remember when Miami…or as I called them, Thug U…was one of the best teams in college football, with coaches like Howard Schnellenberger, Jimmy Johnson, & Dennis Erickson, and alums who went on to be big NFL stars like Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, Michael Irvin, Jeremy Shockey, Reggie Wayne, Warren Sapp, Ed Reed, and Ray Lewis. They were in the national championship picture for most of the 80’s & 90’s and into the new millennium, but it’s been almost a decade since the Hurricanes were really that good. The Eagles are another hit & miss team. Sometimes they are mediocre, sometimes they can be very good. However, in 2011 they finished 4-8, the worst record for a BC football team since 1998. I don’t have a dog in this particular fight, so I’ll go with the home team and pick Boston College to win.

 

Michigan  at  Alabama (-14)

Last but certainly not least, right?? This is the crown jewel of the first week of the college football season. We all know that the Crimson Tide has been…I’m sorry, I can’t avoid it…on a roll, winning 12 or more games 3 out of the past 4 years and capturing two national championships. During that same time span the Wolverines were suffering thru the Fraudriguez Era, going 15-22 and not at all resembling the traditional powerhouse that had been built by Bo Schembechler and had produced dozens of conference titles, multiple Rose Bowl & other bowl victories, and a plethora of NFL talent such as Tom Brady, Tom Harmon, “Crazy Legs” Hirsch, Anthony Carter, Dan Dierdorf, Braylon Edwards, Larry Foote, Brian Griese, Desmond Howard, Charles Woodson, and Amani Toomer. In 2011 the powers-that-be restored order in Ann Arbor by canning Fraudriguez & hiring Brady Hoke as the new head coach, and the Wolverines went 11-2 and won the Sugar Bowl. There is no doubt that this will be a tough task for Michigan, especially since the game is being played at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa. Obviously the oddsmakers aren’t giving the ol’ Maize & Blue much of a chance to win. However, I think a 14 point spread is ridiculous. I would be stunned if ‘Bama actually won by that much. I give the Wolverines more than a decent shot to pull out a victory, but I certainly believe that that they will cover the points even if they lose.

 

 

 

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