Bill Belichick

WINNING & MUSING…VOLUME 1.26

It’s time to bid farewell to football and move on to other things, but not before one final update on everything that’s happened the past several weeks.

Congratulations to the Indiana Hoosiers for winning the CFP Championship, going undefeated in the process. I can’t explain the magic. They should’ve been underdogs to everyone they faced in the playoff, yet the Hoosiers, who had never achieved anything of consequence in the 139 year history of the football program, stared down Alabama, Oregon, and the Miami Hurricanes and came out on top every time. Before that they upset Ohio St. in the Big Ten title game. I don’t know what the future holds, but if Indiana is able to repeat their success next season, experts need to grill head coach Curt Cignetti Jr. and find out his secrets.

Since we last met in this space my Pittsburgh Steelers parted ways with longtime head coach Mike Tomlin, or he parted ways with them if you believe the official story. Either way, I have a few thoughts:

  • I don’t hate Mike Tomlin, but his shtick had become tedious. Have you ever enthusiastically welcomed company into your home and initially enjoyed the visit, but then a few hours later you’re looking at your watch & yawning, desperately hoping they’ll take the hint that they’ve overstayed their welcome?? I am sure that Tomlin will land on his feet, but the fact is that the time for change had come.
  • Mike McCarthy becomes only the 4th Steelers head coach since 1969, while the Cleveland Browns have had a dozen coaches since the turn of the century. These two franchises are not the same. I have always appreciated that the Steelers value loyalty & stability and don’t hire & fire coaches willy nilly, but I do not believe that losing a coach who had won only ONE Super Bowl in two decades, hadn’t won a playoff game in almost ten years, and hung his hat on an admittedly impressive yet not as impressive as some might think streak of “winning” seasons is some sort of tragedy. Did Tomlin “do more with less”?? Perhaps. But he also underachieved. Both things can be true.
  • Let’s be honest…the issues in Pittsburgh are systemic, and run much deeper than Mike Tomlin. They fumbled the quarterback succession plan after the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger…badly. Actually, that ineptitude began while Big Ben was still playing, as he was clearly washed in his last couple of seasons. Drafting Kenny Pickett in the first round in 2022 was a monumental error in judgement, Russell Wilson was a misstep, and anyone who believes Justin Fields will ever be a great NFL QB is a fool. Aaron Rodgers, while being the best among limited options, is past his prime. Tomlin’s coaching staff was laughably bad (the man has NO coaching tree, which is odd). The powers-that-be tried to mask deficiencies with over-the-hill free agents. The George Pickens trade to Dallas made the Steelers organization look incompetent in real time. While they have spent alot of draft capital to build an offensive line, that group was TRUCKED in the playoff loss to Houston. They had the highest paid defense in the NFL while ranking 26th in the league in total defense, which is a problem. Obviously Tomlin can’t be blamed for ALL of these things, but let’s not pretend that he didn’t wield significant power in building that roster and making those poor decisions. 
  • So what about Mike McCarthy?? I don’t know. It’s an uninspiring, safe hire. He’s clearly a transitional coach. Chances are his team will be competitive yet still not a legit championship contender. Sounds familiar. I’m not particularly impressed with the coaching staff he has assembled, but I’d be happy to be wrong.

Apparently there is an Olympics happening right now 🤷🏻. I had no idea. It is funny that all of those indoctrinated, woke athletes have to perform on literal ice…but not amusing enough for me to watch. However, because news from the event is inescapable, I will offer an opinion. I am pretty sure that most companies have a policy against employees disparaging their employer in public. You can’t go on Facebook or Twitter and talk trash about your boss or workplace and expect to keep your job. Yet multiple American athletes, in the midst of the Olympic games, have apparently spoken negatively about the country they allegedly represent. I find that reprehensible.

Kudos to the Super Bowl LX Champion Seattle Seahawks. Despite the final score, the game was largely a defensive battle dominated by Seattle, which I believe is what most “experts” predicted. It’s nice to see a guy like Sam Darnold, who came into the NFL with so much hype before embarking on a journeyman’s trek during which most lost faith that he’d ever fulfill his potential, grab the brass ring. It is also revealing to watch a franchise tear it down, go all in with a young, first time head coach & a QB that people had given up on, and rebuild a team that had a couple of “winning” 9-8 seasons that were deemed not good enough. As far as the extracurriculars, I’m at the age when I skip most of the stupidity. I have no idea who the dude was that sang the national anthem, and didn’t bother to tune in for anything preceding that. I watched TP-USA’s halftime show, which was a bit too country for my taste. I am perfectly aware that Bad Bunny, who hails from Puerto Rico, is an American citizen. I am sure the vast majority of people who opted out of that show possessed the same knowledge, so for those who thought that was the issue, well, you were wrong just as you are the vast majority of the time. I always mute my television during commercials and see no reason to alter that habit for the Super Bowl, so I cannot participate in discussions involving all of that. I was focused on the football game, which proved that defense still wins championships.

I’ve been fascinated by the sports media’s collective conniption fit surrounding the exclusion of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft & former head coach Bill Belichick from the Pro Football Hall of Fame. First of all, I understand the significance of being a “first ballot Hall of Famer”, but let’s be honest…both men will likely be voted in as soon as next year, which makes the meltdown from the talking heads feel rather hollow. Secondly, Kraft found himself in legal trouble just six years ago for trying to find a happy ending at a massage parlor, so he isn’t exactly a paragon of virtue. As for Belichick, I think we got our definitive answer a long time ago as to who deserves more credit for the Patriots’ “dynasty”. Tom Brady left New England, landed in Tampa Bay, and immediately led his new team to a Super Bowl victory. Conversely, Belichick was 29-38 in his last four seasons without Brady. His overall NFL head coaching record without Brady is 83-104. And let’s not forget the cheating. Not even the NFL could cover all of it up, despite their best efforts to do so. Don’t worry folks…both men will land in Canton someday. Denying them on the first ballot seems like a mere slap on the wrist for the atrocities they committed in the past.

In case you are curious, Zach & I limped to the finish line of our picks, both closing out the season with a 2-5 mark in the final weekend. So I finished with a record of 53-70, while Zach secured the season victory by going 56-67. Hey, atleast we have fun, right?? 🫤

So let’s talk about who did get into the Hall of Fame. 

  • Drew Brees (Saints QB)
  • Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals WR)
  • Luke Kuechly (Panthers LB)
  • Adam Vinatieri (Patriots/Colts Kicker)
  • Roger Craig (49ers RB)

I have zero issues with that class. Craig probably should’ve been in the HoF two decades ago, but what’s done is done. I’m somewhat surprised & disappointed that Hines Ward, Jason Witten, and LC Greenwood didn’t make the cut, and a bit amused that Eli Manning didn’t get voted in, although I believe his surname is his best asset and will get him in eventually.

2025 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 6

Oddly enough, I’ve been watching the MLB Playoffs for the past couple of days. Citizens of The Manoverse already know that I am a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, so for many years I have essentially lost interest in baseball’s regular season after the initial hype of the first month. The Pirates have a collective record of 669-847 in the past decade, and I’m not wasting my time paying much attention to a team that wins only 44% of their games. At any rate, unlike the marathon 162 game regular season, baseball’s postseason is divided into much more digestible sprints, and there are usually a handful of teams that I have some reason to loathe, which is enough to keep my attention for a month, or until only teams I hate remain standing. At any rate, my point is that switching from football mode to baseball mode then back to football to make these picks isn’t easy. The things I go thru for you people. You’re welcome.

Observations from Last Week:

  • It’s hard being a college football fan in the Mountain State 😱. My Thundering Herd grabbed defeat from the jaws of victory in a double OT loss to Louisiana, while earlier that day I didn’t make it past the first half of WVU’s shellacking at the hands of Utah. 
  • The NY Giants upset of the Chargers is the very definition of a Pyrrhic victory, given the season ending knee injury to star receiver Malik Nabers. 
  • Not a football thought, but what the hell was up with the United States Ryder Cup team?!?!?!?? That effort was EMBARRASSING!!!! ⛳️🇺🇸😬
  • Tyreek Hill is definitely “out, bruh” 🚑.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles special teams coach is Michael Clay, and he deserves a raise 🦅.

My Season: 18-13

Zach’s Season: 9-22

Clemson (-13.5) at North Carolina

I noted in the preseason that I was anticipating this matchup simply because of the contrasting personalities of head coaches Dabo Swinney & Bill Belichick. At 1-3 the Tigers have been an epic disappointment thus far, with virtually zero chance of reaching the CFP. Meanwhile, Belichick seems more interested in indulging his adolescent girlfriend than leading the 2-2 Tar Heels to a conference championship. The home field intrigues me just a bit and makes me wonder if UNC can really make a go of it. However, I believe in the old adage “it isn’t the X’s & O’s, it’s the Jimmys & Joes”. At the end of the day, despite an atrocious first month of the season, Clemson has superior athletes. Zach has no doubt that Swinney will get things sorted out fairly quickly, while he thinks it might take Belichick a few seasons to build Carolina into a great program.

My Pick: Clemson

Zach’s Pick: Clemson 

Kansas State at Baylor (-6.5)

It looks like both teams will be middle-of-the-pack in the Big 12, but the winner might have an opportunity to improve their lot. The 2-3 Wildcats have a really tough schedule ahead of them so this feels like a must win situation. The 3-2 Bears probably have a better shot at atleast securing a bowl invitation down the line, especially with a home victory in a winnable game. I don’t know who’ll come out on top, but I believe the margin of victory will be less than 5 points. Zach thinks the home field is enough for Baylor to win by a touchdown.

My Pick: Kansas St.

Zach’s Pick: Baylor

Miami (FL) (-5.5) at Florida State

For the first time in a very long time this Battle of Florida has meaningful implications. The Hurricanes are unbeaten and ranked 3rd in the nation. The 3-1 Seminoles suffered a brutal double OT loss to Virginia last week. Miami wants to stay in the conversation with other top national title contenders, while Florida St. needs a rebound if they don’t want everyone to assume their early season success was a fluke. I don’t mean to sound like a broken record, but I think a field goal one way or another will decide the outcome. Zach sees Miami as a legit Top 5 team. He foresees FSU putting up a hell of a fight, but likes the ‘Canes to get a solid win.

My Pick: Florida St.

Zach’s Pick: Miami (FL)

Minnesota (-3.5) vs. Cleveland

I am intrigued by this game simply because Minnesota just played our Steelers in Ireland last weekend, and now they’ll play their second consecutive game overseas. I assume the whole group stayed in Britain and will make the trek to London at some point this week. That already gives them a slight advantage. Of course they also have an advantage because…well, they’re playing the Browns 🤷🏻. Cleveland is starting rookie Dillon Gabriel at QB, and there is a not-so-small part of me that would be happy to see him ball out, sending a clear message that he is the team’s future at quarterback, not that narcissistic Sanders clown. However, I do not believe that’ll happen just yet. There’s a chance the Vikes could have JJ McCarthy available, but even if they roll with Carson Wentz under center I think they’ll win a low scoring snoozefest…something like 13-6. Zach isn’t very impressed with Minnesota, but thinks receiver Justin Jefferson is a difference maker.

My Pick: Minnesota 

Zach’s Pick: Minnesota

Washington at LA Chargers (-2.5)

Speaking of quarterback returns, it seems as though Jayden Daniels could be back in Washington’s starting lineup after missing two games with a sprained knee. I don’t think the Commanders will overtake Philadelphia in their division, but it’s never too early to lay the foundation for a wildcard berth. Meanwhile, the Chargers sit atop their division thanks in part to the KC Chiefs’ slow start, but they can’t count on that lasting much longer. I’m getting playoff caliber vibes from this one, which I know sounds crazy at the beginning of October. It would certainly add to Daniels’ growing legacy to return from injury, lead his team into hostile territory, and escape with a victory. However, the reality is it’ll probably take a game or two for the young QB to be back in top form, and the Chargers seem like a team out to silence any doubters. Zach concurs.

My Pick: LA Chargers

Zach’s Pick: LA Chargers

2024 Sammy Awards (Part 1)

The Academy Awards were first presented in 1929. The ceremony was held at a hotel, with 270 people attending. The presentations lasted fifteen minutes. Obviously that is a far cry from the modern televised spectacle attended by a few thousand people and viewed on television by millions. For various reasons that you don’t need to know or understand The Sammy Awards will be using this information as inspiration to scale back our presentation. It is likely that we will get back to our full scale tomfoolery next year, but at this moment in time we humbly extend sincerest gratitude for tuning in to our imaginary awards show, a labor of love dating back more that a decade & a half. This is our way to honor, mock, cope with, and say a thankful farewell to the last year. In the past we’ve had delusions of grandeur, imagining the imaginery, if real, might be televised on HBO or TBS, or perhaps streamed on Netflix or Amazon Video. This year might be more of a Tubi or Crackle kind of show.

At any rate, because we love irony, The Sammy Awards is proud to introduce a comedian well known for his crowd work to host our awards show with no crowd. Please give a warm welcome to Matt Rife!!

After some insightful commentary from Mr. Rife it is time for our first presenter. Actually he will be presenting several awards. We had a really great lineup of guests, but life happens and availability became an issue. Ben Affleck & Jennifer Lopez were suppose to present together, but circumstances changed. Ellen Degeneres didn’t leave a forwarding address. P. Diddy declined to join us but offered to host an after party. Justin Timberlake really wanted to participate but couldn’t find a designated driver. Former Governor Rudy Giuliani is meeting with his financial adviser. President Biden is on vacation, gearing up for one final round of treasonous money laundering in Ukraine before he leaves office…physically…in a couple of weeks (he checked out mentally a long time ago). Nick Cannon is still celebrating multiple Christmases with his children. We could’ve had an EPIC program, but we’ll soldier on and do the best we can, which includes one of the best kickers in the NFL. He is no stranger to giving life affirming speeches, and is eager to share his wisdom, particularly with the ladies of The Manoverse. His team just finished their regular season, and we appreciate him squeezing us in before the playoffs begin. Please give a warm welcome to Kansas City Chiefs All Pro Harrison Butker!!

The Thrill of Victory Award
Nick Saban & Bill Belichick

After a coaching career that spanned a half century and led to seven National Championships, Nick Saban walked away from the Alabama Crimson Tide last January, citing the new reality of college football…NIL, realignment, etc….as a valid reason for just being tired of all the BS. While The Tide predictably regressed a bit under new leadership, Saban found a new home on ESPN’s College Gameday and is better at the whole TV thing than most would’ve predicted. Meanwhile, after winning six Super Bowls in 17 years with the New England Patriots…often with questionable ethics…Bill Belichick realized, along with the rest of us, that most of the credit belonged to QB Tom Brady (and cheating of course), who went on to win a Super Bowl without Belichick in Tampa Bay while his wife was being planked by her personal trainer. Belichick’s Patriots were 29-38 after Brady bolted, so the coach departed New England last January. Shockingly enough he was not hired by an NFL team, which provided him the opportunity to boink a gal young enough to be his granddaughter. The North Carolina Tar Heels were so impressed by Belichick’s skill in recruiting college kids that they’ve hired him to be their coach.

Favorite Television Show
General Hospital

I don’t watch much television anymore, which is odd considering the quantity of content is greater than it’s ever been. I won’t even criticize a dearth of quality programming, because I am quite certain there are a bunch of great shows that I am missing out on. The truth though, is that outside of wrasslin’, ball games, and my stories, the dramas & sitcoms available just don’t interest me to the point of even investing time to check them out. And with streaming, more often than not I’d rather watch an old favorite that I’ve seen dozens of times. That being said, General Hospital is my old reliable. I’ve been watching since grade school, which is longer than I care to ponder. 2024 was a bit different, because GH was always an experience I shared with my sister. I’ve missed our phone calls & texts kvetching about all the latest drama in the fictional town of Port Charles. I realize soap operas are kind of silly, but so are alot of other things. I learned many years ago not to take stuff too seriously most of the time, so entertainment really boils down to what tickles your funny bone, engages your imagination, or helps you escape the challenges of real life. Since the early 80’s General Hospital has done those things for me.

Favorite Sportscaster
Scott Van Pelt

ESPN isn’t what it used to be, and I’ve grown weary of the debate shows that I used to enjoy. However, the reality is that “The Worldwide Leader” in Bristol, CT remains the driving force in televised sporting events. While I don’t mind tuning into a game on ESPN, I mostly avoid their other programming…except for SVP. If Sportscenter is coming on and he is hosting, I’ll stick around. Van Pelt is versatile, as I also enjoy when he’s part of the broadcast team for golf. He is fun & flippant, but also possesses the journalistic chops to ask tough questions and offer gravitas when a situation demands it. He strikes me as fairminded, not cheerleading or being overly critical of any specific teams, players, or coaches. I respect anyone who is funny, fair, and excellent at their job.

Favorite Podcast
State of Mind

My goal of becoming a podcast kind of guy hasn’t come to fruition just yet. I don’t have the attention span I used to, and find the plethora of intriguing choices a bit overwhelming. What usually happens is I’ll hear about a particular podcast or perhaps see a snippet of it on social media and think “That seems cool…I need to check it out.”, then I simply don’t. Perhaps I can do better in 2025, but let’s not get too excited. Anyway, of the podcasts that I’ve given more than cursory attention to, State of Mind, hosted by Maurice Benard, rises above the noise. Benard is an actor best known for portraying mob boss Sonny Corinthos on General Hospital. He has not been shy about his very real issues with bipolar disorder, and for the past few years has invited guests onto the pod to open up about their own struggles with mental health. It’s one of those topics that alot of folks, whether it be an old school Baby Boomer, strong & silent type of guy, or a youngster who thinks they’re way too cool, avoid dealing with or admitting to, even to themselves. State of Mind illustrates that mental illness does exist, it needs to be dealt with, and it’s okay to talk about it.

Favorite App
Spades *

I jumped back onto the Spades bandwagon in 2024, just with a different app than I was using a few years ago. I probably waste too much time on such activities when I should be doing something productive, but sometimes one simply needs a mindless distraction from all the noise.

Favorite Foodie
Mr. Food

Okay, so first things first…it’s not actually Mr. Food. The OG Mr. Food was Art Ginsburg, who I vaguely recall hosting brief cooking segments during the news when I was a kid. Ginsburg sadly passed in 2012, but his legacy continues with Howard Rosenthal, who worked with Ginsburg for many years. Rosenthal introduces himself as “Howard, from the Mr. Food Test Kitchen”. Of course things are a little different these days, because if one misses whatever show the segments air on in your local television market you always have the option of finding the latest recipes online. I’ve actually made a few things I saw on Mr. Food, and if I may paraphrase his beloved tagline…oooh, they were pretty good. Mr. Food was actually way ahead of the curve, because these days who has the time or inclination to invest in a 30-60 minute cooking show presented by a high end chef who prepares dishes we common folk cannot successfully duplicate?? I’d rather watch Howard’s two minute presentation that still looks rather tasty and feel good about trying it in my kitchen.

This seems like a good time to take a brief timeout. Stay tuned for the exciting conclusion of the downsized yet still delightful Sammy Awards!!

Winning & Musing…Volume 1.24

Sincere apologies to my non-sports folks who thought your nightmare was over at the conclusion of our final round of football picks. Don’t worry…there are a few things percolating, but for now I’m still in football mode and have some things to get off my chest.

Happy trails to former Alabama coach Nick Saban. I don’t know that many outside the Crimson Tide bubble had any idea retirement was on the horizon, but perhaps it shouldn’t have been a total surprise. The man has nothing left to prove, and an old school traditionalist like Saban can’t be happy with the evolution of college football. Conference realignment. NIL. Transfer portal. One of the advantages an elite program like ‘Bama has had thru the years is depth. Their second & third string players are as good or better than most other teams starters. Now though, those talented backups can just go somewhere else to get more playing time. The SEC is never an easy path, but throw in Texas & Oklahoma and the road will be much tougher. Also, the playoff is growing from four to 12 teams, which means more opportunity but also more competition. It’s a grind, and going forward I don’t believe we’ll see many 80 year olds still coaching as in the glory days of Bobby Bowden & Joe Paterno. Selfishly I’m glad to see Saban go. It’s not that I dislike the man or hate Alabama, but dynasties aren’t much fun if they don’t involve your favorite team. The rest of us prefer a little variety, and their dominance had grown tedious. Perhaps they’ll be just as successful under new head coach Kalen DeBoer, but I suspect there will be a small decline, meaning the Tide will find themselves ranked in the #15-20 range for awhile, with a playoff berth far from guaranteed.

I don’t pat myself on the back often, mostly because the accuracy of my predictions isn’t generally something to brag about. However, sometimes I end up being on the right track at the wrong time. Two such occasions arose recently. First, in my 2022 NFL Preview I opined “at 70 years of age Pete Carroll is the oldest head coach in the NFL, and after a dozen years perhaps it is time for the Seahawks to move on”. As it turns out, I was simply ahead of the curve, with Carroll departing Seattle a year later. Secondly, my prediction that the Dallas Cowboys would have a losing season and head coach Mike McCarthy could be fired by Halloween obviously didn’t pan out, but the fact that they flamed out in the playoffs and McCarthy nearly got fired means I’m not completely off my rocker. I give him one…maybe two…more years.

Ironically, Zach lost our final bowl game pick, but I know he’s glad that his reverse psychology trick worked and the Michigan Wolverines won the National Championship. Which reminds me…I opined that “I believe Jim Harbaugh helps his alma mater win their first National Championship since 1997, and then, happy knowing that he left the program in better shape than he found it in nine years ago, heads back to the NFL”. I actually nailed it for once, with Harbaugh now the new coach of the LA Chargers. Anyway, I finished our picks with a 74-61 record, while Zach was 61-74. As always, I had alot of fun doing picks each week with my nephew and look forward to next season.

So the Final Four in the NFL are the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, & Detroit Lions. The Philadelphia Eagles, who I had winning the whole thing, are nowhere to be found after imploding down the stretch. I cannot…will not…even fathom cheering for the Ravens, and I’d prefer not to see the Niners share the record with my Steelers & the hated Patriots by winning their sixth Lombardi Trophy, so a Baltimore-‘Frisco Super Bowl is the least appealing scenario. If it happens though I’ll be a 49ers fan. Despite my disdain for mid…at best…Taylor Swift and penchant for preferring underdogs, I’m not at the point of hating the Chiefs yet. It’s impossible to dislike Andy Reid, and drunken Jason Kelce supporting his brother is entertaining. I assume that most fans without a dog in the fight are hoping to see the Lions in the Super Bowl, and it would be fresh & fun. Head coach Dan Campbell is a bit too aggressive for my taste, but I’m all in on Detroit if they can pull it off.

Continuing the theme of departing head coaches…..

I’m happy that Bill Belichick left the Patriots. I can’t do anything about the past or the fact that their “dynasty” existed, but he’s done and Brady retired, so the nightmare is over. Belichick might land somewhere else eventually because he isn’t content to walk away like Saban, but I think we all know by now that the guy who had a losing record in five seasons with the Cleveland Browns three decades ago is the real Bill Belichick, not the dude who fell into six Super Bowl titles with a talented QB & nefarious machinations that went unpunished.

2023 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 12

Both of us were 3-2 last week, so nothing really changes there. The schedule is pretty stacked this weekend so we’re doing a double dose of picks. We are halfway thru the NFL season and in the home stretch with college football, which keeps things interesting as far as trying not to be repetitive. However, good teams & great matchups are what they are, so if we tend to focus on certain teams while ignoring others it is unintentional yet oftentimes unavoidable.

My Season: 38-25

Zach’s Season: 31-32

Michigan (-5.5) at Penn State

The undefeated Wolverines are battling for a playoff berth, while the 8-1 Nittany Lions still have an outside shot at playing for the Big Ten title. This is a Noon kickoff on Fox, which is a little odd, but it also means we get the broadcast team of Gus Johnson & Joel Klatt, who have become my favorite duo. The home field makes me skittish, but Michigan has dominated the rivalry in recent years, having beaten the home underdogs in six of their last nine battles. It’ll be fun for awhile, but I think the favorites grind it out for three & a half quarters before pulling away with a comfortable victory. Zach believes the time has come for his Wolverines, that this is the season they’ve been waiting for the past couple of decades. He has thought Penn St. overrated the entire season and forsees a huge win for his guys on the road.

My Pick: Michigan

Zach’s Pick: Michigan

Auburn at Arkansas (-3)

The 5-4 Tigers & the 3-6 Razorbacks have become afterthoughts in the SEC. Auburn needs a win to become bowl eligible, while Arkansas needs a win for a bit of self-respect. I’m a little surprised that Arkansas is favored, and I think the oddsmakers may have gotten it wrong. Zach agrees, predicting that the visitors will score a late touchdown for the win.

My Pick: Auburn

Zach’s Pick: Auburn

Miami (FL) at Florida State (-14.5)

This was one of the fiercest rivalries in the country a few decades ago, but it’s been a rough road for both programs in recent years. Both have shown signs of life here & there, though usually not at the same time. The ‘Canes are 6-3 but really have nothing to play for except pride and a more lucrative bowl invitation. Conversely, the unbeaten Seminoles can secure a playoff berth if they just keep winning. I’d be shocked if they lose, but can they cover on their turf?? Ultimately I foresee the favorites winning by 10-13 points, which they’ll be happy with but certain parties won’t like. Zach thinks State’s offensive firepower is just too much.

My Pick: Miami (FL)

Zach’s Pick: Florida St.

Mississippi at Georgia (-11.5)

The Bulldogs are still winning every game, but it doesn’t seem like they’re as dominant as we’ve all come to expect. Perhaps they are bored. If that’s the case they’ll need to kick it up a notch because the 8-1 Rebels have big plans that begin with pulling off an upset. Do I think that will happen?? No, not in the cozy confines of Athens, GA. That being said, I don’t believe the home team wins by more than ten points. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Ole Miss

Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss

Utah at Washington (-9.5)

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. It could have been a great matchup if the 7-2 Utes had their starting QB and hadn’t gotten smoked by both Oregon teams. They can still end up with a nice season and play in the Sun Bowl or Alamo Bowl, but a third consecutive PAC 12 title isn’t going to happen. Conversely, the 9-0 Huskies have a playoff berth on the horizon if they win out. I think it’ll be a decent game, but Washington is just too good and they’re not going to let their foot off the gas now. Zach isn’t totally sold on Washington as a playoff contender, but he thinks they’ll win this game.

My Pick: Washington

Zach’s Pick: Washington

Southern California at Oregon (-14.5)

While QB Caleb Williams snuggles his Mommy and plans a future as an NFL owner his Trojans have lost three of their last four games. Meanwhile, the 8-1 Ducks still have conference title and playoff aspirations. Oregon QB Bo Nix is my Heisman favorite and this is a fantastic opportunity to grab the attention of voters. It’s a 10:30pm kickoff on Fox, which I freakin’ love. Man those points scare me though!! When was the last time USC was a two TD underdog?? The folks in Eugene better show up & show out because their team needs them on Saturday night. The points are just too much for Zach. He likes Oregon to win, but believes it’ll be closer than two TDs.

My Pick: Oregon

Zach’s Pick: USC

Indianapolis (-1.5) at New England

In the preseason I opined that I was hesitant to stick a fork in the Patriots, but at 2-7 they’re even worse than I anticipated, which brings me no small amount of joy. At 4-5 the Colts aren’t that much better, but losing a starting QB does tend to affect a team negatively. We’re really setting new precedents this week, as I have to think that the Pats being underdogs in Foxboro has been rare the past couple of decades. It’ll probably be an ugly game, but somebody has to win, and I think that’ll be the visiting favorites in a low scoring slugfest that everyone will want to forget as quickly as possible. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Indianapolis

Zach’s Pick: Indianapolis

Houston at Cincinnati (-7.5)

The 5-3 Bengals have won three in a row after a rough start and seem to be hitting their stride in a wide open AFC North. The 4-4 Texans have shown flashes of potential just as I predicted. I’ll be much more interested in this matchup in a couple of years, but right now Cincy is clearly the better team. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Cincinnati

Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati

San Francisco (-2.5) at Jacksonville

Lather, rinse, repeat. Much like Houston, the 6-2 Jags look to be a team with a bright future, but they’re not quite there just yet. They’ll likely win a weak division then get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. Conversely, the 5-3 Niners had been, until recently, one of the more complete teams in the league, and anything short of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy will be a disappointment. Having said that, we cannot overlook the fact that they’ve lost three straight games. Why?? It’d be easy to blame QB Brock Purdy, and it’s a valid point. Don’t ever forget that he was Mr. Irrelevant and had eight signal callers chosen ahead of him, including Chris Oladokun & Skylar Thompson. Perhaps Purdy has been exposed. However, I actually think defense is a bigger issue and one that can be fixed rapidly, especially when you add a piece like recently acquired defensive end Chase Young. Call me delusional, but I still believe ‘Frisco is the better team and will dig deep to score a vital road victory. Zach forsees San Francisco relying heavily on their rushing attack to get an important win.

My Pick: San Francisco

Zach’s Pick: San Francisco

Washington at Seattle (-6)

If the 49ers continue to fold like a cheap suit the 5-3 Seahawks will be more than happy to take the division. I told y’all a few months ago that the NFC West would be hotly contested, and that might prove to be accurate if things continue down the current path. However, let’s not shortchange the 4-5 Commanders, who could easily be a couple of games better had the ball bounced just a bit differently. They will likely end up being as mediocre as I thought they’d be, but they’re a gritty team that doesn’t go down easily. I think the home field is too much to overcome, and Seattle will cover…but it won’t be a blowout. Zach doesn’t think it’ll be particularly competitive and agrees that Seattle is the better team.

My Pick: Seattle

Zach’s Pick: Seattle

2023 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 7

Greetings football fans. Hey, it’s my birthday!! Sadly, writing this lil ditty is about as exciting as my day will get, and that’s okay. At any rate, both of us had another mediocre week. I still can’t believe Georgia didn’t cover, and there are no words to explain what the hell happened to our Steelers. But, as Ferris Bueller once stated, life moves pretty fast. It’s time to focus on another weekend of gridiron action, and so we move forward.

My Season: 23-12

Zach’s Season: 20-15

Kansas State (-11.5) at Oklahoma State

We’re leaning heavily into the Big 12 this week, starting with a team I had high hopes for in the preseason. At 3-1, with only a close loss to Missouri blemishing their record, the Wildcats still have an opportunity to meet my lofty expectations. Conversely, the 2-2 Cowboys have lost two in a row and need to stop their downward spiral immediately. This is the prime time Saturday night game on ESPN, so someone somewhere must believe it’ll be fun to watch. The points concern me a little bit because I’m not sure the favorites are as elite as I’d hoped while the underdogs probably aren’t as terrible as the numbers might indicate. Having said that, anyone who has followed us here thru the years knows that I’m loyal to my preseason opinions until they’re proven wrong, so I’m riding with K-State to validate my prognostication with a statement victory. Zach isn’t impressed by either team but thinks the favorites have a more balanced attack that will lead to a comfortable win.

My Pick: Kansas St.

Zach’s Pick: Kansas St.

Texas Tech at Baylor (-1.5)

At 2-3 the Red Raiders look like fighting for bowl eligibility might be their ceiling. Ditto for the 2-3 Bears, who won 12 games & beat Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl just a couple of seasons ago. This feels like a pivotal game that could right the ship of the winner while tossing the loser deeper into the abyss. I have no idea what to expect and usually factor the home field rather heavily into these kinds of decisions, but The Vibes are gently nudging me toward Tech. Zach likes Baylor’s toughness to make the difference in a high scoring affair decided deep into the 4th quarter.

My Pick: Texas Tech

Zach’s Pick: Baylor

Oklahoma vs. Texas (-6.5)

I still call it the Red River Shootout even if the sports media has become too woke to do so. It’s the last time they’ll meet as Big 12 rivals, but unlike so many other great traditions that have been destroyed by conference realignment these teams will continue to battle annually as members of the SEC. After last season’s 6-7 abomination I had no expectations of the Sooners, but thus far they’re 5-0 & proving me wrong. I did have a reasonably high opinion of the Longhorns, but at 5-0 & ranked in the Top 5 they’ve outdone themselves. It’s a neutral site contest at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, with a Noon kickoff. It feels like Texas has much more at stake, with a possible playoff berth in their future if all goes well. Oklahoma looks to have too many obstacles in their path to work themselves into playoff contention, but ruining their opponent’s opportunity would be sweet. I’m looking forward to a real dandy, and think the favorites have enough firepower to win by a touchdown. Zach believes the total points may end up close to 100, with the underdogs scoring a mildly surprising upset.

My Pick: Texas

Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma

Jacksonville vs. Buffalo (-5.5)

I expected both teams to be playoff contenders, but so far I’ve been underwhelmed. I thought the 2-2 Jags would be the bandwagon everyone would jump on, but they lost a game & that spot to the Houston Texans. Similarly, the 3-1 Bills are atop their division, but share the lead with the Miami Dolphins, who have received a lot more buzz. This is a 9:30am kickoff in London on the NFL Network, the second consecutive week for Jacksonville in Merry Old England (they beat Atlanta last Sunday). That gives them a slight advantage in my mind, assuming they just stayed overseas instead of flying back & forth across the pond again. It would be an attention grabbing upset, and possible changing of the guard in the AFC. Zach thinks Buffalo has figured things out after a sluggish beginning to their season.

My Pick: Jacksonville

Zach’s Pick: Buffalo

New Orleans at New England (-1.5)

I feel like this is a must-win for both teams. The 2-2 Saints came out of the gate strong before dropping two straight. Injuries have been an issue. The 1-3 Patriots have folks questioning the perceived genius of allegedly one of the greatest coaches of all time. I could’ve told you years ago that was poppycock, but they kept winning Super Bowls by any means necessary. Witnessing New England’s implosion is delicious fun, and I wouldn’t mind seeing N’Awlins beat them by triple digits. Unfortunately the visitors aren’t that good. Are they good enough to squeak by in a close contest though?? I hope so. Conversely, Zach doesn’t thing Darth Belichick will lose two games in a row. He foresees them taking pressure off whoever starts at QB by establishing a strong running game.

My Pick: New Orleans

Zach’s Pick: New England

2022 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 6

Buckle your seatbelts folks…we’re trying something a little different this week. Instead of going head to head and picking the same games Zach & I will each be picking different games. It’s a format I originally pondered a few years ago and ultimately decided against for various reasons, but there are so many intriguing games on the schedule this feels like a good time to shake things up and cover as much ground as possible. We’ll return to our regularly scheduled programming next week. Enjoy.  

My Season: 15-14

Zach’s Season: 17-12

Utah State at BYU (-24)

I ranked the Cougars 6th, and at 3-1 I believe they still have a chance to climb that high if they pull off a couple of upsets & get to 10 wins. The Aggies seem to be a force in the Mountain West with some regularity, but at 1-3 this might be an off year. The points are a bit much…especially for an in-state rivalry…but I have faith in the home team. 

My Pick: BYU

Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina (-10)

They may have inexplicably lost two straight after the biggest victory in school history (at Notre Dame), but I’m thankful my Marshall Thundering Herd are now in the much more entertaining Sun Belt instead of the pedestrian C-USA. The 3-1 Eagles scored a win over Nebraska a few weeks ago, which is impressive no matter what kind of sad shape that legendary program is in. The Chanticleers might not have that sort of signature win this year, but they’ve won 11 games in each of the past two seasons. I like the home team to score alot of points and get an important triumph.

My Pick: Coastal Carolina 

San Diego State at Boise State (-6)

Unlike previous years no one seems to be talking about the Broncos. Perhaps that’s because they’ve just been average the past two seasons, and at 2-2 that might not change in 2022. The Aztecs are also 2-2, so somebody is waking up Sunday morning with a winning record while the other team…well…isn’t. It’s hard to go against the infamous blue turf, so I’m picking the home team. 

My Pick: Boise St.

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-3)

Something has been off with the 1-2 Titans, who I thought would win their division comfortably. And now left tackle Taylor Lewan is gone for the season with a knee injury, which will make life that much harder for RB Derrick Henry, who’s already off to a slow start. The Colts could easily be 0-3, but have lucked into a 1-1-1 record. I normally have a lot of faith in the home field advantage, but The Vibes are telling me this is the week Tennessee wakes up and remembers that they’re supposed to be a playoff team.

My Pick: Tennessee 

Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-6.5)

I told you the Jags could be headed in the right direction, and right now they sit atop their division. I don’t expect that to last, but their improvement is undeniable. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 3-0 and look like they could cruise to a division title. I’m hoping for an entertaining contest, but I believe Philly wins this one easily. 

My Pick: Philadelphia 

Kentucky at Ole Miss (-6.5)

Isn’t Kentucky supposed to be a basketball school?? I guess the 4-0 Wildcats didn’t get that memo, especially when you consider they were 10-3 a season ago. The Rebels are also 4-0 and could launch themselves into the Top 10 with a victory. Zach likes Kentucky’s defense to keep things close and they’re running attack to eat clock. He’s not sure who might come out on top, but feels like it’ll be closer than a touchdown either way. 

Z’s Pick: Kentucky 

Texas Tech at Kansas State (-7.5)

This might be the sleeper game of the weekend. Both teams are 3-1, with the Red Raiders coming off a thrill overtime win over Texas, while the Wildcats upset conference foe Oklahoma. Can both teams channel that momentum into another positive outcome, or will one fall prey to a giant letdown?? Zach isn’t comfortable with the points & foresees another close contest. 

Z’s Pick: Texas Tech 

North Carolina State at Clemson (-6.5)

In my preseason poll I predicted the Wolfpack would continue their winning ways and finish as a ranked team, while I had Clemson finishing outside the Top 10. Thus far both teams are unbeaten, but the Tigers had to go into overtime to defeat Wake Forest last week while NC St. hasn’t broken a sweat since the second half of their season opener when they took their foot off the gas pedal and scored a closer than it should’ve been victory. Zach opines that Clemson’s defense is terrible and NC St. is a sneaky good team, but in the end he thinks the home team will get the job done. 

Z’s Pick: Clemson 

New England at Green Bay (-10.5)

Is the tundra frozen yet?? Probably not…it’s only October. The divorce of the Packers & receiver Davante Adams hasn’t worked out well for anybody at this point. I thought The Pack would win their division with ease, but it’s been a dogfight. The Pats look like they’re being coached by Cleveland Browns Era Belichick instead of six time Super Bowl winner Belichick, which makes me happy. I’ll hate those bastards til my last breath. Zach still has faith in Belichick and believes they’ll grind it out well enough to atleast keep things interesting.

Z’s Pick: New England 

Kansas City (-2.5) at Tampa Bay 

It’s a battle of alleged legends…ageless Tom Brady vs. still in his prime Patrick Mahomes. Hurricane Ian has been reeking havoc on the Gulf Coast of Florida, but at the moment it doesn’t look like the game will be moved out of Tampa to a neutral site or to Monday night instead of Sunday night, both of which had been floated as possibilities. Zach doesn’t believe Brady will lose two in a row and predicts late game heroics by Tampa Tom will secure a win for the underdogs.

Z’s Pick: Tampa Bay 

2021 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 5

We didn’t pick the Clemson game last week, but please indulge me while I give myself a rare pat on the back. In my pre-season poll I pondered the question “Could it be that the ACC is getting better just as the (Clemson) Tigers aren’t quite as elite as they have been??”. It didn’t go down exactly like I thought it would, but yeah…I called it!! No playoff for Clemson this season. Now, if only my weekly picks in these games were as accurate. Sadly both Zach (2-3) and myself (1-4) struggled again last week, so I’m going against my better judgement by chasing wins with bonus picks. Y’all are welcome, even though it may just blow up in our faces.

My Season: 11-15

Zach’s Season: 10-16

Florida International at Florida Atlantic (-10.5)

I can’t be the only one who gets these two teams mixed up, so let’s take a little climb up the learning tree. The 2-2 Florida Atlantic Owls call Boca Raton (45 miles north of Miami) home, represent Conference USA, and are coached by Willie Taggart (former head coach at Oregon & Florida St.). The 1-3 Florida International Panthers are out of Miami, also play in C-USA, and their head coach is Butch Davis (who has also coached for Miami, North Carolina, & the Cleveland Browns). I don’t think there’s much of a home field advantage to be had, and in rivalry games like this most other conventional rules can be tossed aside. So it comes down to vibes and what assumptions one can make based on what we’ve seen thus far. FAU lost to Florida & Air Force, allowing both teams to score 30+ points. FIU has only played one game against top tier competition, and that was a four TD+ loss to Texas Tech. This feels like a relatively low scoring, tight game to be decided by turnovers, penalties, & special teams. Something along the lines of 28-24, which means that I don’t like the spread at all and will take the underdogs to cover. Zach concurs. 

My Pick: Florida International 

Z’s Pick: Florida International

Cincinnati (-2.5) at Notre Dame 

I had to look at those odds multiple times utilizing a few different sources. Sure, Cincy is a solid team that had two consecutive 11 win seasons before last year’s abbreviated campaign in which they logged 9 victories before narrowly losing to Georgia in the Peach Bowl. They handled a well regarded Indiana team last week. I am by no means saying that the Bearcats aren’t good. However, they’re an AAC team typically not on the same level as a program like Notre Dame. Not only that, but this game is in South Bend and the 4-0 Irish have given no one any reason to doubt them outside of being pushed into overtime by Florida St. in the season opener. Hell, they took Wisconsin’s best punch a week ago and still won by 4 TDs, so what am I missing?? Why is Cincinnati favored in this game?!?!?!?? It sounds pretty insane to me, so I’m going with the home team to score the “upset”. Conversely, Zach believes the Bearcats are for real and this is their opportunity to prove they belong in the playoff conversation. 

My Pick: Notre Dame 

Z’s Pick: Cincinnati 

Ole Miss at Alabama (-14.5)

Well, atleast we don’t have to worry about Clemson in the playoff, so it’ll be fresh to some degree. Now if only we could see the Tide lose a couple of games and fall out of contention, how cool would that be?? Unfortunately that’s probably not going to happen. ‘Bama has won four games by an average of 29 points, although it should be noted that they’ve not faced anyone with a pulse other than Florida, a game they only won by two points. The Rebels are 3-0 and have also beaten up on clearly inferior competition. In attendance will be highly touted recruit Arch Manning, Peyton & Eli’s nephew. It is my understanding that both Ole Miss & Alabama are high on his list, so it’ll be interesting to hear down the line how this game affected his decision. At any rate, if it were being played in Oxford I might be tempted to pick the upset. Enigmatic Rebels’ head coach Lane Kiffin spent a few years as ‘Bama’s offensive coordinator awhile back so obviously he’d love to snatch a shocking victory. However, with the game being contested in Tuscaloosa I just don’t see it happening. The only question is if the home team can cover the points, and I believe they will. Zach’s man crush on Nick Saban makes his choice easy. 

My Pick: Alabama

Z’s Pick: Alabama 

Arkansas at Georgia (-18.5)

I didn’t think the Razorbacks were legit, but I was wrong. They handled Texas A&M and moved into the Top 10. Unfortunately they now must travel to Athens and challenge the undefeated #2 Bulldogs. I’d be really surprised if Georgia loses, but can they cover?? The points feel a bit disrespectful. Having said that, it feels like a “go big or go home” moment, and I did pick Georgia to be a playoff team and thus far they’ve done nothing to dissuade me, so I’m counting on them to notch a three touchdown victory. Zach respects Georgia’s defense & team speed, but he doesn’t like the spread and thinks Arkansas will keep it close.

My Pick: Georgia

Z’s Pick: Arkansas 

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Good Lord the Bears were awful a week ago. At the time of publication it is unknown whether the Bears’ starting QB will be rookie Justin Fields, Andy Dalton, or Nick Foles…but does it matter?? Conversely, the Lions are coming off a last second loss to the Baltimore Ravens in which it took the longest field goal in NFL history to beat them. Can they use that heartbreaking defeat as motivation?? If they were playing a playoff caliber team I might have doubts, but the Bears aren’t that, so I think Detroit scores the mild upset. Zach agrees on all counts. 

My Pick: Detroit 

Z’s Pick: Detroit 

Seattle at San Francisco (-3)

In my NFL Preview I predicted that the NFC West would be fun to watch, and so far they have not disappointed. This game might end up being a factor in a few months when deciding a playoff spot, and don’t think for a second these teams don’t realize that. Seattle lost to the Minnesota Vikings last weekend, while ‘Frisco was on the losing end of an unsurprising Aaron Rodgers miracle, so both clubs will be looking to rebound. I think the home field actually does make a difference, so I’m picking the Niners. Zach, on the other hand, believes potential league MVP Russell Wilson will lead his team to victory. 

My Pick: San Francisco 

Z’s Pick: Seattle 

Arizona at LA Rams (-6)

Staying in the NFC West, these are the teams I believe will be battling for the division crown at the end, so it’s a pretty big early season matchup. Both are undefeated, but obviously that’ll change for one of them. It looks like the trade for QB Matthew Stafford was a wise move for the Rams, while the Cards have developed into a seemingly complete team. This is a tossup for me, but whoever wins I think it’ll be by less than a touchdown. Zach foresees a close game but believes the home team will cover. 

My Pick: Arizona 

Z’s Pick: LA Rams 

Tampa Bay (-6.5) at New England

It’s the Brady Bowl. I’m sure the folks in Boston & Tampa are pumped, but personally I’d rather see both teams lose. That being said, I think it’s been well established by now that the “Patriot Dynasty” was more about Brady than it ever was about Belichick. The oddsmakers seem to agree since the home team is a near touchdown underdog. The Sunday Night Football folks at NBC are probably going to be disappointed because I think this one will be over rather quickly and the defending Super Bowl champs might win by 4 or 5 TDs. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Tampa Bay 

Z’s Pick: Tampa Bay 

2019 NFL Preview & Prognostications

I was at an outdoor concert a couple of weeks ago, and as darkness fell around 9pm I felt a slight chill in the air. Autumn was in the breeze. That’s a feeling I usually don’t experience until Labor Day Weekend while attending our local Italian Heritage Festival. In the moment I was not pleased because I tend to prefer the warmth & sunshine of summer. I have nothing particular against fall except for the fact that it ushers in winter, which I despise. At any rate, in an effort to find a silver lining and think positive I must say that there are a few good things about autumn…my birthday, Halloween, & football. Glorious football is back!! It’s time once again to look into the pigskin crystal ball and make some predictions about how this season might play out. I don’t put a whole lot of stock in pre-season, but there are injuries, holdouts, & emergent rookies we can’t ignore. As always the team’s record from the previous year is in parentheses, with the predicted record for this season following it. And remember…no wagering. I am not a professional and most of the time I’m not very good at this. Let’s just relax & have some fun.

 

  

 

 

North

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6-1) 10-6

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) 9-7

Cleveland Browns (7-8-1) 8-8

Cincinnati Bengals (6-10) 3-13

Despite an eventful off-season that saw talented but troubled WR Antonio Brown shipped to The Left Coast I don’t think my Steelers will implode. However, I do expect divisional games to be even more competitive than usual. Don’t sleep on the Ravens…they’ll battle for every yard on both sides of the ball, and new QB Lamar Jackson is feast or famine: he’ll have moments of pure brilliance, but he needs to become a better passer and has to stay healthy. Everyone needs to slow their roll on the “new & improved” Browns. Going back to his college days I’ve always opined that QB Baker Mayfield gave me a Bret Favre-ish vibe, and I see it now more than ever. Adding receivers Odell Beckham Jr. & Jarvis Landry into the mix along with a backfield of Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt bodes well for the offense. I like their defense too…DEs Myles Garrett & Olivier Vernon and tackle Sheldon Richardson should be stout against the run as well as put some pressure on opposing QBs, and the secondary might be sneaky good. Having said that, I’m not buying Cleveland as a playoff team just yet. The Bengals finally pushed longtime head coach Marvin Lewis out the door, but I’m not sure 35 year old Zac Taylor is the answer. He’s never been a head coach at any level and the learning curve will be quite foreboding. Regardless of whether or not Taylor lasts more than a season or two Cincy probably needs to blow things up and construct a whole new roster from the ground up.

 

 

South

Indianapolis Colts (10-6) 10-6

Houston Texans (11-5) 9-7

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11) 9-7

Tennessee Titans (9-7) 5-11

There are just so many questions…this might be the most difficult division in the league to calculate. Can Colts’ QB Andrew Luck stay healthy?? Will QB Nick Foles be the answer Jacksonville has been seeking?? Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry, Lamar Miller, or Leonard Fournette…which running back will lead the pack?? Will any of these four defenses emerge as elite (the Jags were #5 a year ago, the Titans #8, Indy & Houston were #11 & #12)?? I’m downgrading Indianapolis a bit due to concerns about Luck’s ankle, but still think they will win the division if he doesn’t miss more than a couple of games. I like Foles and the Jags’ defense is stout, but have serious doubts about the durability of Fournette and the rest of their skill players inspire little confidence. I love Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson, but somebody other than WR DeAndre Hopkins has to step up and be reliably productive. Houston has the same issue on the defense…JJ Watt is fantastic, but others have to contribute. My vibe is that they take a step back this season, make some adjustments, and become serious contenders in 2020. This feels like a make or break year for Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota. When he came out of Oregon in 2015 the big debate about who would go #1 overall in the draft was between him and Florida St.’s Jameis Winston. Winston went to Tampa while Mariota was chosen next, but neither quarterback has set the world on fire. There just seems to be something amiss in Tennessee. I think they decline slightly and head coach Mike Vrabel finds himself on the hot seat.

 

 

East

New England Patriots (11-5) 10-6

New York Jets (4-12) 8-8

Miami Dolphins (7-9) 8-8

Buffalo Bills (6-10) 3-13

Here we go again. Tom Brady appears to be ageless and Bill Belichick’s stature as a head coach grows with each passing year, despite his shady tactics. The Patriots have become Tiger Woods from two decades ago when he was winning a lot but we all knew he really only cared about the majors. In much the same way it seems like everyone understands that New England will win a rather weak division, and their only true goal is another Super Bowl. With that in mind I think they’ll win the division but not run away with it. Jets’ QB Sam Darnold continues his maturation process, and now he has RB Le’Veon Bell as a safety net. I like what the Jets are doing and believe they’ll noticeably improve. I feel bad for Dolphins & Bills fans. They’ve known for a decade & a half that their teams aren’t winning the division, but they don’t even get to enjoy watching obvious progress. Both squads just seem to be treading water and perpetuating their mediocrity with poor coaching hires, bad free agent moves, and subpar drafts.

 

 

West

Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) 11-5

Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) 10-6

Oakland Raiders (4-12) 6-10

Denver Broncos (6-10) 3-13

At the time of publication Chargers’ RB Melvin Gordon is threatening to continue his holdout into the start of the season, which could certainly have a negative impact. Even if he’s back in uniform Week 1 there have to be questions about fitness & durability after sitting out the entire pre-season. It’s a messy situation that opens the door just enough for the Chiefs to slip by & take the division. There’s a lot to like about KC, led by NFL MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Speaking of messy situations, the Antonio Brown Circus has moved from Pittsburgh to Oakland, which theoretically should make the Raiders better on the field…but I’m not convinced. I’ve lost track of whether this is the team’s final season in Oakland or if they’ll have to wait until 2021 to relocate to Las Vegas, but until that move occurs I think the Raiders are stuck in neutral. The Broncos have ostensibly improved their quarterback quandary with the addition of Joe Flacco & by drafting Drew Lock out of Missouri in the second round of the draft. They also have new head coach Vic Fangio, which should help the defense. Give this group time to gel & they have potential, but I have low expectations for the current season.

 

Playoff Teams:   Chiefs, Steelers, Patriots, Colts, Chargers, Texans

AFC Championship:    New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers

 

 

 

 

North

Chicago Bears (12-4) 11-5

Minnesota Vikings (8-7-1) 8-8

Green Bay Packers (6-9-1) 8-8

Detroit Lions (6-10) 5-12

The more things change the more they stay the same, and I don’t expect much difference in what ESPN’s Chris Berman used to call the Norris Division. The Packers have a new head coach and QB Aaron Rodgers has become increasingly enigmatic. The Vikings have some talent but not enough to move the needle. The Lions are…well, they’re the Lions. That leaves the Bears to claim another division crown and vie for home field thru the playoffs. QB Mitch Trubisky should take another step in his development and I have high expectations. Combined with a tough defense that makes for a potentially elite team. Anything short of an appearance in the conference title game will be a disappointment for Chicago.

 

 

South

New Orleans Saints (13-3) 14-2

Atlanta Falcons (7-9) 9-7

Carolina Panthers (7-9) 9-7

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11) 2-14

My heart still hurts for the Saints and their fans. They absolutely should have been in the Super Bowl last season but got royally screwed by an inept officiating crew. My vibe is that situation will provide motivation to an already very solid team. QB Drew Brees is almost as nature-defying as Brady, but I suspect this may be his last great opportunity to get another Lombardi Trophy. The Falcons & Panthers will both be good but not great, and I have serious concerns about the health & durability of Carolina QB Cam Newton. Tampa is just a warmer version of Buffalo with a more heralded QB. They can change coaches and do all the tinkering they want, but none of their decisions seem to work out the way they hope. Jameis Winston is undeniably talented, but I just don’t think he is a top shelf NFL quarterback.

 

 

East

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) 10-6

Dallas Cowboys (10-6) 9-7

Washington Redskins (7-9) 7-9

New York Giants (5-11) 6-10

The Eagles’ safety blanket is gone, so QB Carson Wentz better stay healthy. Not only that, but he needs to live up to the hype. The division will be a dog fight, and Wentz needs to fulfill his potential for Philly to come out on top. I’m not buying the Cowboys’ hype. I don’t think they’ll be horrible, but the holdout of RB Zeke Elliott could have a negative impact. Media types will yap endlessly about a “quarterback controversy” in New York, but does it really matter?? I’ve never thought Eli Manning was that good, and if he loses the starting gig to rookie Daniel Jones it says a lot more about Manning than it does Jones. Either way the Giants’ QB…whomever it may be…won’t have Odell Becham Jr. to throw to, and that’s a problem. RB Saquon Barkley can only do so much, right?? The Redskins will have some solid games and at times look like a potential playoff team, but at the end of the day their fans will be disappointed and be left to wonder what happened. Head coach Jay Gruden is an offensive coordinator masquerading as a head coach, successfully trading on his more famous brother’s name, and he’s not going to achieve much success with Case Keenum as his starting quarterback. Rookie signal caller Dwayne Haskins will likely snag the job by mid-season, so there is some hope for the future.

 

 

West

Los Angeles Rams (13-3) 10-6

San Francisco 49ers (4-12) 9-7

Seattle Seahawks (10-6) 8-8

Arizona Cardinals (3-13) 4-12

I hated what happened in the NFC Championship game last season not only because of how the Saints got shafted, but also because I knew the Rams were sitting ducks in the Super Bowl. As talented as they are I just knew that the Patriots were foaming at the mouth to take on a young & inexperienced coach/QB combo, and it turned out exactly as I knew it would. And now the Rams aren’t a secret to the rest of the league so their opponents will be more prepared than a year ago. I still think they’ll win the division, but it won’t be quite as effortless. Jimmy G. is back under center for the Niners, and that means a huge turnaround. They’ll be in a battle with several other teams for a wildcard berth, but that’s a nice change from last season. Seattle still has Russell Wilson and they made some solid draft picks, but I believe they’ll take a step back this year. The Cards are trying to copy the Rams’ formula, but I’m not convinced it’ll work. Kliff Kingsbury probably needed a few more years as a college coach before taking the helm of an NFL team, and Kyler Murray is a perfect example of a great college quarterback whose skills just don’t translate to the NFL. Kudos to the powers-that-be in Arizona for rolling the dice and trying something new, but two years from now Kingsbury will probably be coaching on Saturdays and Murray will be playing baseball…if NFL defenses don’t maim the little guy.

 

Playoff Teams:   Saints, Bears, Rams, Eagles, Falcons, 49ers

NFC Championship:   New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears

 

 

 

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Top 5 Picks in 2020 NFL Draft

1       Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2       Denver Broncos

3       Cincinnati Bengals

4       Buffalo Bills

5       Arizona Cardinals

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 2

Wow, the beginning of the NFL season kind of snuck up on me. When choosing which games to pick I could not pass up the opener featuring the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles, but it’s a Thursday nighter, and early games for this procrastinator are an issue. Fortunately I think we’re going to make it just in time. I got off to a pretty good start last week. Zach?? Not so much. We’ll see how adding pro football into the mix spices things up. This is going to be quick & dirty due to time constraints, so enjoy.

My Season:        4-1

Z’s Season:      1-4 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clemson (-12)   at      Texas A&M

The Tigers had no problem beating down Furman last weekend, and A&M easily defeated Northwestern State. I have no doubt that Jimbo Fisher will dramatically improve the Aggies in time, but it might take a season or two. Conversely, Clemson seems damn near unbeatable. This game is in College Station, which is traditionally a raucous crowd. That should give me pause, but it really doesn’t. Clemson might lose at some point this year, but it’s not going to be this week. Zach points out that A&M played on Thursday last week, meaning they’ve had an extra couple of days to prepare for this game. He likes the home field and thinks this will be a close game. The Aggies may not win, but Zach believes they’ll cover the points.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

USC                     at      Stanford (-4)

As good as Stanford has been the last several years it feels like it has been rare for them to be favored over the Trojans. Of course they do have the nominal home field advantage, which makes sense I suppose. Both teams had fairly effortless wins last week, so not much can be learned from those games. I feel like Southern Cal has been overlooked a bit in the offseason and no one is expecting much because they are trying to replace QB Sam Darnold, now plying his trade with the New York Jets. Conversely, Stanford running back Bryce Love is a Heisman frontrunner and getting all kinds of attention. The Vibes are telling me the script might get flipped this weekend. Contrary to what I’ve observed, Zach feels like USC is overhyped…but he thinks they’ll get a close victory.

My Pick:     USC

Z’s Pick:     USC

 

 

 

San Francisco at      Minnesota (-3)

Expectations are high for the 49ers, but perhaps we need to pump the brakes a bit. Sure, Jimmy G. looks like he’s going to be a good quarterback, but I’m not sure about the weapons he has surrounding him, a concern exacerbated by the loss of starting RB Jerick McKinnon to a torn ACL just a few days ago. The defense could be quite good though, with the addition of Richard Sherman in the secondary being a solid move. But if we’re talking defense you can’t look past the best, and a season ago that was the Vikings. I don’t expect that to change this year, and new starting QB Kirk Cousins could push his team all the way to February. Zach doesn’t buy all the Cousins hype and thinks Garoppolo will emerge as the better quarterback, but he likes Minnesota to get the close win.

My Pick:     Minnesota

Z’s Pick:     Minnesota

 

 

 

Houston             at      New England (-6.5)

On paper this might look like a mismatch, but I am convinced that Houston’s 4-12 record in 2017 was an anomaly. QB Deshaun Watson and defensive lineman JJ Watt are both back & healthy, so I expect this season to be much different. The Patriots are what they are, and any perceived chinks in their armor haven’t shown up on the field. I think both teams will make the playoffs, but from a psychological perspective a win in this one would be huge for the Texans. Zach likes Houston well enough, but he just can’t pull the trigger against the Pats.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     New England

 

 

 

Atlanta                at      Philadelphia (-2.5)

The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl Champs having the home field against the Falcons, who most of the experts are predicting will battle New Orleans for the NFC South. The offseason hasn’t been perfect for the Eagles, and traditionally it is difficult for defending champions to recapture that magic a season later. I believe that Atlanta might be a bit overrated, and I’m not necessarily sure what to make of Philly, but for now I think the afterglow of that Super Bowl win lingers on and make this another night to celebrate in the City of Brotherly Love. Zach concurs and thinks the Eagles will win by two TDs.

My Pick:     Philadelphia

Z’s Pick:     Philadelphia