ACC

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 15

We’ve reached Conference Championship Week. Typically that would conclude the college portion of our season except for bowl picks, which have traditionally been a separate deal. However, we’re doing things a little differently this year, so stay tuned. We are taking a break from the NFL this week though, but look forward to getting back to it next week with division races and playoff berths up for grabs down the stretch. These conference title games will determine automatic bids for the expanded CFP, as well as seeding & at large bids. I was a bit hesitant to embrace the new format, believing that expansion from four to six teams was the proper course of action. Occasionally I am wrong and willingly admit it, and the level of interest & intrigued the revamped system has introduced is alot of fun. To be honest, many of the bowl games have been irrelevant fluff for years, and the CFP Playoff really does nothing to diminish that any further.

My Season: 44-41

Zach’s Season: 37-48

C-USA Championship 

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State (-4)

I haven’t paid much attention to C-USA since my alma mater bolted a few years ago, but I know the 8-4 Hilltoppers are always competitive, although they haven’t played for the title in a few years. I didn’t realize the Gamecocks had a football team or that the school even existed until former WVU coach Rich Rodriguez was hired in 2022. Fun fact: the school is in Alabama, not Florida. Anyway, in only their second season in the conference Jax St. matched their previous 8-4 record but now find themselves in the championship game. It’s a Friday evening kick on the CBS Sports Network, and I won’t be home to watch. I suppose it could be a good game, but I think the visiting underdogs handle business with a solid win. Zach points out that the two teams met just last weekend, with the Hilltoppers coming out on top in a close game. And while it is difficult to beat a team twice in a season, let alone in back-to-back weeks, he feels like WKU can pull it off or atleast cover the points.

My Pick: Western Kentucky 

Zach’s Pick: Western Kentucky 

AAC Championship 

Tulane (-5.5) at Army

It’s about respect for these two teams. The 9-3 Green Wave are seeking their third consecutive 10+ win season, while 10-1 Army would love to remain ranked in the Top 25 to cap off their most successful season since 2018. Will the Black Knights have momentum going into their traditional battle with Navy next week, or will they get caught looking ahead against a worthy opponent?? I don’t like that it’s even a factor, but that’s the way the schedule worked out, and I think the visiting favorites will score a fairly comfortable victory. Zach is looking forward to the contrast in styles…Army’s ball control triple option ground attack vs. Tulane’s up tempo offense that averages 37+ points & over 400 yards per game. He opines that Army might stand a chance if they control the tempo & dominate time of possession, but at the end of the day Tulane probably has too much firepower.

My Pick: Tulane

Zach’s Pick: Tulane 

Mountain West Championship 

UNLV at Boise State (-4)

The Mountain West gets a prime time Friday night opportunity to show off and they deserve it. UNLV head coach Barry Odom has been mentioned as a possible candidate for the open position at West Virginia, so I’ve been catching up on the 10-2 Runnin’ Rebels. Meanwhile, 11-1 Boise has been part of the college football zeitgeist for a couple of decades now and has the longest current streak of winning seasons dating back to 1997. The winner of this game has a very good chance of getting into the playoff as the highest ranked Group of Five conference champion. When these teams met in Vegas the week before Halloween the Broncos scored a TD in the 4th quarter to get the win, but I expect a different outcome this time, with an  upset that’ll shake up the playoff bracket. Zach respects Boise’s big game experience and doesn’t foresee them fumbling such a huge opportunity. He believes RB Ashton Jeanty, a top Heisman candidate, will make a huge difference. 

My Pick: UNLV

Zach’s Pick: Boise St.

Sun Belt Championship 

Marshall at Louisiana (-5.5)

Speaking of my alma mater…

The Herd snuck into this game with a double OT victory over James Madison. At 9-3 they’ve already had their best season since 2015 and would love to win their first Sun Belt title since joining the conference a couple years ago. There has been some chatter about the future of head coach Charles Huff, but I don’t believe that will have any effect on this game. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Ragin’ Cajuns have dramatically improved after a couple of tough years. They have the home field and are likely the smart pick, but I’m staying home to watch instead of venturing out for some delightful holiday fun, so Marshall better not disappoint me. Zach views it as Marshall’s ground game vs. Louisiana’s passing attack, and is hopping on the upset train.

My Pick: Marshall

Zach’s Pick: Marshall

MAC Championship (Detroit, MI)

Ohio vs. Miami (OH) (-2.5)

I don’t pay much attention to the MAC anymore. My fascination with mid week “MACtion” was a passing phase. However, this one might be fun. They call it the Battle of the Bricks, a rivalry that dates back to 1908 between the two oldest universities in the state of Ohio. When the 9-3 Bobcats visited the 8-4 RedHawks in mid October the home team got the ten point victory, and I expect more of the same this time. Zach likes Miami because former Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger is an alum, which is as valid of a reason as any.

My Pick: Miami (OH)

Zach’s Pick: Miami (OH)

ACC Championship (Charlotte, NC)

Clemson vs. Southern Methodist (-2.5)

When I think of SMU I immediately recall the celebrated Pony Express backfield featuring future NFL Hall of Fame running back Eric Dickerson in the early 1980s, and of course the program receiving the “death penalty” in 1987 after repeatedly violating NCAA rules. This has been the team’s most successful season since being revived in 2008, and playing for the ACC title in their very first year in the conference is impressive. Conversely, competing for a conference championship is the norm for Clemson. I suppose SMU could still get an at large playoff spot if they lose, but that seems risky, even after winning 11 games. The situation is more clear for the Tigers…they have to secure the automatic bid. It feels strange that SMU is even in this position, and even weirder that they’re the favorites, but I’m fine with that and enjoy seeing things shaken up a bit. Zach understands that the shine has worn off for many when it comes to Dabo Swinney, but he still believes in the coach with two national championships on his resume and thinks Clemson could make some playoff noise.

My Pick: SMU

Zach’s Pick: Clemson 

Big Ten Championship (Indianapolis, IN)

Penn State vs. Oregon (-3.5)

If you’d have told me a few months ago that neither Ohio St. nor defending national champs Michigan would be in the conference title game I wouldn’t have believed it. Kudos to undefeated Oregon, the #1 team in the country, who sits atop the Big Ten in their inaugural season as a member. The 11-1 Nittany Lions aren’t too shabby either, although I feel like they’re somewhat overrated. Penn St.’s defense will really need to step up for them to have a chance, and I think they’ll keep it close for awhile before the favorites pull away late for a fairly comfortable victory. Zach has no faith in Penn St. in big games and predicts a dominant win for the Ducks.

My Pick: Oregon

Zach’s Pick: Oregon

SEC Championship (Atlanta, GA)

Georgia vs. Texas (-2.5)

Most of us probably expected this matchup even before the season began. Perhaps some thought Alabama could be in the mix, but there were bound to be bumps in the road there with a new coach. At any rate, even at 10-2 the Bulldogs have been somewhat underwhelming, while the 11-1 Longhorns have been exactly as advertised. Their only loss was to Georgia at home in Austin. This is allegedly a neutral site game, but obviously it’s damn close to home for the underdogs. I expect a thrilling, extremely tight battle. Maybe we’ll even get an overtime or two. Both teams are probably heading to the playoff regardless of the outcome, but the winner will get a first round bye, and I think that’ll be Georgia. Conversely, Zach thinks the Bulldogs will come up short in a high scoring shootout.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Texas

Big 12 Championship (Dallas, TX)

Iowa State vs. Arizona State (-2.5)

The 10-2 Cyclones are having their best season since 2020 when they lost the conference title game to Oklahoma. The 10-2 Sun Devils weren’t even in the Big 12 a year ago, but they’ve found a soft landing after the implosion of the Pac 12, and accomplished a dramatic turnaround after going 3-9 each of the past two seasons. It’s a Noon kick on Fox, and I hope it isn’t overlooked by the masses because it could end up being the best game of the weekend. The winner gets an automatic playoff bid, while the loser will probably be left on the outside looking in, which is unfortunate. I believe the outcome will be decided by turnovers & special teams, with the underdogs ultimately prevailing. Zach, on the other hand, not only predicts a dramatic, last minute victory for the Sun Devils, but believes they can mow thru the playoff and win the National Championship. A hot take indeed.

My Pick: Iowa St.

Zach’s Pick: Arizona St.

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 11

Better late than never, right?? The deadline for these posts is always before kickoff of the first game, so I suppose technically we’re not late. However, I usually strive to get things done by Wednesday or Thursday, especially if we’re picking a Thursday night game, which is why we don’t pick Thursday games often. At any rate, it’s very rare to not have everything up for public consumption Saturday morning, but occasionally your humble webmaster does have some semblance of a life, hence the delay. At any rate, there hasn’t been much of a shift in our records, so we’ll just move on to this weekend’s games. 

My Season: 33-29

Zach’s Season: 28-34

Clemson (-6.5) at Virginia Tech

Once upon a time it was a marquee matchup with, at the very least, conference title implications. Unfortunately both teams are on the outside looking in right now. The outlook could improve for the 6-2 Tigers with a victory, while the 5-4 Hokies are simply defending their home turf and playing for bowl eligibility. I expect a spirited battle, but in the end it’s hard to ignore the fact that Clemson is clearly a better team. Zach believes the visiting favorites will win big.

My Pick: Clemson

Zach’s Pick: Clemson

Alabama (-3) at LSU

Has a bit of the shine worn off this rivalry?? Perhaps, but not that much. At 6-2 both teams still have conference championship & playoff aspirations, but those dreams will likely end for the loser. Death Valley on a Saturday night is daunting for any visitor, even The Tide. I believe we’re looking at a last second field goal or overtime situation, and I feel an upset brewing. Zach, on the other hand, likes LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, but thinks ‘Bama is the better team. He wouldn’t be surprised to see overtime, but thinks the visiting favorites will snag a close victory.

My Pick: LSU

Zach’s Pick: Alabama 

BYU (-4.5) at Utah

Who would have predicted a few months ago that the Battle of the Beehive State would have conference title implications…for BYU?? Not only do the Cougars lead the Big 12, but they are an unbeaten Top Ten team. Conversely, the 4-4 Utes have had their season go completely off the rails in the past month. They have the home field, but since the two schools are less than an hour apart it probably doesn’t matter. It’s one of those late night kickoffs that I used to look forward to when I was younger, but now I don’t know if I’ll even be awake for the second half and don’t anticipate missing much. Zach predicts a high scoring shootout, with the visiting favorites ultimately prevailing.

My Pick: BYU

Zach’s Pick: BYU

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Dallas 

Both teams are looking up at the division leading Washington Commanders, which is kind of funny. To be fair, Philly is only a half game out of first place and seems to have fixed most of the issues that plagued them late last season. The addition of RB Saquon Barkley has been a huge boost, with him resembling the freak of nature he was back at Penn St. in 2017. Meanwhile, the 3-5 Cowboys are fulfilling my prophecy for them from a year ago. I should have stuck with those vibes this offseason. Even with the home field there is no reason to believe Dallas has a chance to come out on top. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Philadelphia 

Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia 

Miami at LA Rams (-2.5)

It’s the Monday night game, which means football fans will be watching. The question though is whether or not we should be excited to tune in. At 2-6 the Dolphins are, thus far, falling way short of expectations. Can they turn things around in the second half of the season?? The outcome of this game could go a long way toward answering that question. The Rams are 4-4 and in a dog fight with the other three teams in the NFC West, so a victory would be quite important to them as well. I view the Rams as solid yet unspectacular in all three phases of the game. Their record could easily be a couple of wins better, but sometimes the ball just doesn’t bounce the right way. I foresee the home favorites having an edge in turnovers & time of possession, which should help them come out on top. Zach believes it could be a nail biter, but thinks a healthy Rams team is peaking at the right time.

My Pick: LA Rams

Zach’s Pick: LA Rams

2024 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 5

First things first…

Last weekend I was 4-1, while Zach went 1-4. That means the overall season lead has shifted. We’ll see how long that lasts. 

Other random thoughts…

Thus far my NFL predictions haven’t panned out. I am particularly perplexed by the ineptitude of the Cincinnati Bengals & Jacksonville Jaguars, while being surprised at the success of the Minnesota Vikings. I am not at all shocked that league zebras are catching heat for their noticeable generosity toward the Kansas City Chiefs. The criticism is well deserved, and that, combined with what feels like a purposeful effort by the league to indulge Swifties, has quickly cast the defending Super Bowl Champions as villains. In the college ranks, Alabama & Texas have played better than I anticipated, while Florida St. has been a train wreck & Notre Dame has underwhelmed. And finally, as much as I hate to say it, anyone writing about Heisman odds who doesn’t have Travis Hunter at the top doesn’t know their ass from a hole in the ground. Heisman voters need to decide if the award exclusively goes to a quarterback on one of the top teams and be honest about that, or reward a player who performs at a high level on both sides of the ball and look past the fact that his team is average and his coach is a self-important blowhard.

My Season: 15-13

Zach’s Season: 13-15

Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) (-19)

When these two programs moved to the ACC a couple decades ago it was the beginning of the end for The Big East, and I’ll never forgive them for that. At any rate, the 2-2 Hokies are unlikely to defeat the unbeaten Hurricanes, but can they cover the points?? I think perhaps they might. Zach has been impressed with the ‘Canes, but cautions this has all the earmarks of a classic trap game. However, while he believes it might’ve been a different story in Blacksburg, VA, he has confidence in the home team to win big in their house.

My Pick: Virginia Tech

Zach’s Pick: Miami (FL)

South Alabama at LSU (-22)

The 2-2 Jaguars out of the Sun Belt have grabbed some attention by outscoring their last two opponents 135-24. Meanwhile, the Bayou Bengals are riding at three game win streak after a season opening hiccup against USC. Death Valley on a Saturday night is no picnic, but I think South Alabama might keep things interesting for awhile before ultimately losing by four TDs. Zach isn’t a big fan of LSU coach Brian Kelly, but he’s willing to roll the dice on a dominant Tigers victory.

My Pick: LSU

Zach’s Pick: LSU

Georgia (-2) at Alabama

We’ll have alot of clarity after this game is over. The Bulldogs are 3-0 but barely escaped Kentucky with a win a couple weeks ago. Their legitimacy as the top team in the land has been questioned by some, with no shortage of those folks promoting Texas as the new #1 team. The Tide has rolled to three big wins thus far, making their coaching transition look seamless. ‘Bama has the home field, but I think Georgia gets their first regular season victory in this rivalry since 2007. Zach foresees a low scoring tug-of-war, with Georgia ultimately winning by 3-7 points.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Georgia

Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5)

Did you know that Vikings QB Sam Darnold is only 27 years old?? It feels like he should be older, probably because this is his fourth NFL team in seven seasons in the league. He is taking advantage of the opportunity that opened up when first round pick JJ McCarthy suffered a preseason knee injury. Minnesota is 3-0 & Darnold has the fifth best QBR in the NFL. The Packers are also playing with a backup QB after starter Jordan Love injured his knee a few weeks ago. Former Titans first round pick Malik Willis has led Green Bay to a 2-1 record, and he has the comfort of the home field. The question essentially becomes are the Vikings…and Darnold…for real?? Or has it all been smoke & mirrors?? The equation changes if Love is cleared to play, but that is up in the air right now. Armed with the information we have at this moment I have to believe the Vikes will ride the wave of momentum. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Minnesota 

Zach’s Pick: Minnesota 

Seattle at Detroit (-4.5)

The 2-1 Lions have not been as impressive as many (including yours truly) thought they’d be. Conversely, the 3-0 Seahawks have been sneaky good. RB Kenneth Walker has missed the past two games with an oblique injury. That’s an abdominal muscle in case you are curious. However, he is on pace to return for this game, and even if he doesn’t Zach Charbonnet has been solid in relief. Everyone will be focused on the chess match between Seattle’s offense & Detroit’s defense, but perhaps we need to pay attention to the opposite. If QB Jared Goff can get the ball to his receivers for a few big plays and RB Jahmyr Gibbs can help control the clock, it’d go a long way toward a victory for the home favorites. Zach believes things will be decided by a field goal or less.

My Pick: Detroit

Zach’s Pick: Seattle 

2024 College Football Preseason Top 25

Folks, I don’t even know where to begin. I seriously contemplated not even doing a pre-season poll this year because, quite frankly, I’m not that excited about college football anymore. Money & politics have stained the sport, and I am simply too old to retain my usual level of plucky enthusiasm. A year ago I stated that “I will not let university suits or TV execs steal my joy”, but now I cannot deny that my fervor for the game has indeed significantly diminished. I can’t keep straight what conference half of these teams are members of anymore, and don’t have much interest in learning. I know that the Power 5 is now the Power 4 because the Pac 12 imploded. Perhaps in the long run that will be helpful in sorting out the playoff, but at the moment I perceive it as more dunking on tradition, whatever scraps of that may remain. Surely not a whole hell of alot. I am not even going to try to explain the new playoff format beyond its expansion from four to twelve teams, which neuters the impact of the regular season beyond its function as a time waster for couch potatoes with empty lives (like me) and a great excuse to get drunk for college students & rednecks in a state of arrested development. At any rate, let’s dive in!!

25 Southern Cal

Last Season: 8-5 (Won the Holiday Bowl)

Key Games: 9/1 vs. LSU, 9/21 @ Michigan, 11/30 vs. Notre Dame

Head coach Lincoln Riley came to USC with much fanfare, but in two seasons with future NFL bust Caleb Williams at QB he has achieved an unimpressive 19-8 record. Moving to the Big Ten won’t make things any easier, but sports media will prop up the Trojans if they can pull off an upset or two. 

24 Iowa State 

Last Season: 7-6 (Defeated in the Liberty Bowl)

Key Games: 10/5 vs. Baylor, 11/30 vs. Kansas St.

I went to high school with the mother & aunt of Cyclones’ QB Rocco Becht, and his father was a talented tight end for my WV Mountaineers in the late 90’s who had a solid career in the NFL. So are my expectations filtered thru rose colored glasses?? Perhaps, but I think the new Big 12 is intriguing and could provide a few surprises. 

23 Tennessee

Last Season: 9-4 (Beat Iowa in the Citrus Bowl)

Key Games: 9/21 @ Oklahoma, 11/16 @ Georgia 

If you listen to the talking heads they’ll have half of the SEC ranked in the Top Ten, but the truth is that someone will lose a game or two. Word on the street is that sophomore QB Nico Iamaleava is an upgrade over Joe Milton, who is now plying his trade with the New England Patriots. We’ll see.

22 Miami (FL)

Last Season: 7-6 (Lost to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl)

Key Games: 10/14 @ North Carolina, 11/11 @ Florida St., 11/18 vs. Louisville

I don’t believe the ‘Canes will ever again be the dominant force that sat atop the college football world for much of the 1980s & ‘90s, but improving by a couple of games in a mediocre ACC is doable. They’ll need to beat atleast one favored opponent on the road.

21 Arizona 

Last Season: 10-3 (Beat Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl)

Key Games: 9/13 @ Kansas St., 9/28 @ Utah

The Wildcats land in the…*checks notes*…Big 12, and they could have some early success. If you forced me at gunpoint to say something positive about realignment I might point to fresh matchups in which no one really knows what to expect. Arizona vs. BYU. Arizona vs. West Virginia. Arizona vs. UCF. I don’t think they’ll compete for a conference title or playoff berth, but matching last season’s success seems like a reasonable expectation.

20 Virginia Tech 

Last Season: 7-6 (Beat Tulane in the Military Bowl)

Key Games: 9/27 @ Miami (FL), 11/9 vs. Clemson

The Hokies haven’t won 9+ games since 2017, and have had three head coaches since Frank Beamer retired in 2015. They improved tremendously in Year 2 under Brent Pry, and it doesn’t feel outlandish to expect further development, especially in a pedestrian ACC. Keep an eye on Clemson’s November visit to Blacksburg. The winner of that game could emerge as a conference title contender.

19 Texas

Last Season: 12-2 (Defeated in the CFP Semis by Washington)

Key Games: 9/7 @ Michigan, 10/2 vs. Oklahoma, 10/19 vs. Georgia

Well ‘Horns fans, you got what you wished for. Now it’s time to back up all the bragging & trash talk on the field against SEC opponents. Not only that, but the non-conference schedule features a visit to Ann Arbor to battle the defending national champions. The talent is unquestionable, but the path is treacherous. A playoff berth seems unlikely, but 9 or 10 wins doesn’t feel out of reach.

18 North Carolina State

Last Season: 9-4 (Lost the Pop Tarts Bowl)

Key Games: 9/21 @ Clemson, 11/30 @ North Carolina

I can’t decide if the ACC is a model of parity or simply tedious. I am feeling generous so let’s call it more of the former than the latter. If the Wolfpack wants to equal the success of last season they’ll need to have some great games on the road.

17 Penn State

Last Season: 10-3 (Lost to Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl)

Key Games: 10/12 @ USC, 11/2 @ Ohio St.

The Nittany Lions are amongst a plethora of teams that perpetually reside on the second level of college football. They’ll win alot more games than they lose and always field a talented team theoretically capable of beating just about anyone, but never quite reach elite status which would allow them to be perceived as a legit playoff contender. Ten wins and a solid bowl berth seems to be their ceiling.

16 Michigan

Last Season: 15-0 (CFP National Champions)

Key Games: 9/7 vs. Texas, 9/21 vs. USC, 11/2 vs. Oregon, 11/30 @ Ohio St.

I don’t believe that the loss of head coach Jim Harbaugh to the NFL means that the defending national champions will crumble & slink away into obscurity, but they are unlikely to be serious title contenders. I suppose they could sneak into the playoff, but even that feels like a bit much to ask. They’ll lose atleast one huge game in The Big House.

15 LSU

Last Season: 10-3 (Beat Wisconsin in the ReliaQuest Bowl)

Key Games: 9/1 vs. USC, 11/9 vs. Alabama

I’ll be honest…this one makes me nervous. I never know what to expect from the Bayou Bengals. That being said, head coach Brian Kelly has had two consecutive ten win seasons since arriving in Baton Rouge. Opening against USC in Death Valley might be the most intriguing matchup of the first full weekend of action, and they also host ‘Bama in November. Can they match last season’s success?? We’ll see.

14 Boise State

Last Season: 8-6 (Lost the LA Bowl)

Key Games: 10/25 @ UNLV, 11/29 vs. Oregon St. 

The Broncos are back!! After a couple of underwhelming seasons and a coaching change Boise has rebounded the past two years and won the Mountain West title a season ago, their first championship since 2019. I don’t expect them to upset Oregon in Eugene, but that’s a Week 2 non-conference battle. Their focus should be on winning ten games & another conference championship.

13 Appalachian State 

Last Season:  9-5 (Won the New Mexico Bowl)

Key Games: 9/28 vs. Liberty, 11/23 vs. James Madison 

The overhyped teams in the power conferences will beat each other up. Only one or two might emerge unscathed. That leaves room for a Group of 5 team (or two) to rise thru the rankings a bit. I believe the highest ranked conference champion of those “lesser” conferences is guaranteed a playoff berth. A year ago that would’ve been the C-USA champion Liberty Flames, but I’m predicting a horse race between Boise St. & the Sun Belt’s Appalachian St. The Mountaineers’ two key games are both in the cozy confines of Boone, NC.

12 Alabama

Last Season: 12-2 (Defeated in the CFP Semis by Michigan)

Key Games: 9/28 vs. Georgia, 10/19 @ Tennessee, 11/9 @ LSU

In case you hadn’t heard, Nick Saban is no longer the head coach at Alabama. He simply had nothing left to prove. New coach Kalen DeBoer is no slouch, having won 25 games the past two years with the Washington Huskies, including an appearance in last season’s CFP Title game. I don’t believe we’ll see that much of a decline for The Tide. Saban surely didn’t leave the cupboard bare. However, I think it is too much to expect an undefeated championship caliber effort out of the gate. Fans in Tuscaloosa will need to settle for a solid record & a playoff appearance.

11 Oregon 

Last Season: 12-2 (Won the Fiesta Bowl)

Key Games: 10/12 vs. Ohio St., 11/2 @ Michigan

Expectations are thru the roof for the Ducks heading into their inaugural season in the…*checks notes*…Big Ten, but I’m not buying it. I don’t believe this is the team that walks into a new, STACKED conference and wins a title. They will not beat Ohio St., and upsetting Michigan in The Big House is a tall order. Ten wins & a playoff berth is the ceiling for Oregon right now. 

10 Clemson

Last Season: 9-4 (Beat Kentucky in the Gator Bowl)

Key Games: 10/5 @ Florida St., 11/9 @ Virginia Tech

The Tigers have not lived up to their lofty standards the past few years, last making a playoff appearance in 2020. That is likely to change with the new format, but I’m still not convinced they are serious title contenders. Of course the first task is to win the ACC, which means the game in Tallahassee on my birthday is a must win. 

9 Missouri 

Last Season: 11-2 (Beat Ohio St. in the Cotton Bowl)

Key Games: 10/5 @ Texas A&M, 10/26 @ Alabama

It is easy for the Tigers to get lost in the SEC shuffle, but a season ago they announced their presence with authority, with wins over Tennessee & Florida. I’m not sure how much credence to give their defeat of Ohio St. in the Cotton Bowl considering alot of the Buckeyes’ firepower was MIA, but it looks good on paper. Can Missouri mirror that success this year?? Don’t overlook their late season visit to Tuscaloosa. If there was ever a time to make a powerful statement that’d be it.

8 Mississippi

Last Season: 11-2 (Beat Penn St. in the Peach Bowl)

Key Games: 9/23 @ Alabama, 9/30 vs. LSU, 11/11 @ Georgia

I will freely admit to caving into peer pressure on this one. The Rebels are getting a ton of preseason love from almost every outlet, so I assume where there’s smoke there has to be some fire. Still, visits to Tuscaloosa in September and Athens in October seem daunting. Winning both games, though a gargantuan task, would certainly secure a Top Ten ranking. Heck, pulling off just one upset would grab some attention. The linchpin to the entire season might just be hosting LSU only one week after visiting ‘Bama. The loser of that game probably tanks their playoff aspirations.

7 Oklahoma State

Last Season: 10-4 (Won the Texas Bowl)

Key Games: 9/21 vs. Utah, 9/28 @ Kansas St.

Okay, okay…I actually did some research so I’d get this right. The Big 12 lost Texas & Oklahoma while gaining Arizona, Arizona St., Utah, and Colorado, and you’ll recall that Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, and Central Florida joined a year ago. What all of that boils down to is an opportunity to seize the top spot & become the new standard bearer for the conference. The Cowboys were in the mix last season, but they’re probably going to face a tough battle with newcomer Utah for conference supremacy. The Utes visit Stillwater in September. Don’t sleep on that game.

6 Florida State

Last Season: 13-1 (Obliterated by Georgia in the Orange Bowl)

Key Games: 10/5 vs. Clemson, 10/26 @ Miami (FL), 11/9 @ Notre Dame

After several years of mediocrity the Seminoles have rebounded the last couple of seasons, coming within a whisper of the playoff last year. It is likely that they would’ve received the nod if not for a serious injury to QB Jordan Travis, although the beatdown they received in the Orange Bowl caused people to wonder if it was all a mirage anyway. Travis has moved on to the NFL now, and Florida St. has the opportunity to answer any lingering doubts. They’re still in the ACC (for now), which is a double-edged sword. On one hand Clemson is probably the only obstacle to winning a conference title. Conversely, that title doesn’t earn much respect these days. A November trek to South Bend looks like the pivotal moment of their championship dreams.

5 Notre Dame 

Last Season: 10-3 (Won the Sun Bowl)

Key Games: 8/31 @ Texas A&M, 11/9 vs. Florida St., 11/30 @ USC

The Fighting Irish will always be in the playoff conversation given their much ballyhooed history & independent status. An at-large bid is likely reserved in their name as long as they hover near the top half of the rankings. Perhaps I am being naive, but trips to College Station, TX & The Coliseum in L.A. don’t feel that intimidating. I believe Notre Dame wins both games. Hosting Florida St. to end the season is helpful, but it is also a classic trap game.

4 Kansas State

Last Season: 9-4 (Beat NC St. in the Pop Tarts Bowl)

Key Games: 9/28 vs. Oklahoma St., 11/30 @ Iowa St.

While Oklahoma St. will be in the Big 12 mix I foresee the Wildcats being the old school Big 12 team that’ll fend off (almost) all the newcomers. Winning on the road in Ames, IA to close the season is a tough mountain to climb, but I think it’ll clinch a conference title game appearance for K St. Undefeated?? It’s possible…until the playoff. They are not a legit national championship contender.

3 Ohio State

Last Season: 11-2 (Beaten by Missouri in the Cotton Bowl)

Key Games: 10/12 @ Oregon, 11/2 @ Penn St., 11/30 vs. Michigan

The Buckeyes lost some talented players to the NFL & in the transfer portal, but they also added a ton of five star recruits & well-regarded transfers. Not only do most expect them to not miss a beat, but it seems probable that they’ve actually gotten better. The Big Ten situation is a catch-22. On one hand changes at Michigan mean that they are unlikely to be as dominant and Ohio St. will probably be favored in that matchup. On the other hand, the conference has added Oregon, USC, UCLA, and Washington, so the path to a title is even tougher. I don’t know if undefeated is a realistic goal, but I am not sure it matters that much. Survive & advance to the Big Ten title game. Win the conference championship and receive a first round playoff bye. That’s the blueprint.

2 Georgia 

Last Season: 13-1 (Destroyed Florida St. in the Orange Bowl

Key Games: 8/31 vs. Clemson, 9/28 @ Alabama, 10/19 @ Texas

“To be The Man you’ve got to beat The Man”, and the only teams that have defeated the Bulldogs in the past three years are Alabama in the 2021 SEC Championship (Georgia then beat The Tide to win the National Championship) and Michigan in last season’s title game. Georgia has become THE team. They are on another level, and will need every ounce of that superiority to repel their challengers. Sadly I still think “style points” are a thing, so even if the ‘Dawgs grind out an unbeaten regular season they might not hold the top spot if a couple of those victories are unimpressive. Visits to Tuscaloosa & Austin, TX are mountains Georgia must climb, and those trips feel rather perilous.

1 Utah

Last Season: 8-5 (Lost the Las Vegas Bowl)

Key Games: 9/21 @ Oklahoma St., 11/23 vs. Iowa St.

Okay…stay with me. Imagine this scenario. Two loss SEC & Big Ten Champions emerge from the rubble. Notre Dame & the ACC Champ (either Florida St. or Clemson) both have one loss and a couple of tight wins. Meanwhile, the Utes, with 25 year old seventh year senior QB Cam Rising, who’s as old or older than half the starters in the NFL, returns after missing the whole season a year ago with a serious knee injury. Utah also returns 16 starters & 73% of their production from a year ago. In their inaugural Big 12 season Utah starts 4-0 before heading into Stillwater and getting a huge road win over Oklahoma St. They blow thru the remaining schedule like one of those tornadoes in Twister before winning the Big 12 title game over Kansas St. Can they stand tall against Big Ten & SEC opponents in the playoff?? Year in & year out…probably not. This season?? It seems plausible.

2023 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…Bowl Season (Part Deux)

Annnnnnddd…we’re back. For the sake of readability I thought it best to break things down into two parts. If you haven’t done so already please peruse Part 1. We’ll leave a light on for you, and upon your return take a peak at a few of the more compelling games on the bowl schedule, including the College Football Playoff.

Gator Bowl (Jacksonville)

Friday 12/29

Noon/ESPN

Clemson vs. Kentucky

At first glance it doesn’t seem like an appealing matchup. However, one must consider that, after being a perennial playoff contender for a long time, the 8-4 Tigers are in a down cycle and not quite elite at the moment. Conversely, the 7-5 Wildcats have spent the past few seasons showing the world they aren’t just a basketball school. So, it actually might be a fun game between two solid yet unspectacular teams. Zach trusts Coach Swinney to lead Clemson to a convincing win.

Zach’s Pick: Clemson

Sun Bowl (El Paso)

Friday 12/29

2pm/CBS

Notre Dame vs. Oregon State

I like the Sun Bowl. While almost all of the other post-season games have been sucked into the Disney vortex the Sun Bowl has remained on CBS since 1968, and true to its name is played in the afternoon sunshine of El Paso, TX. I still vividly recall Oklahoma St. narrowly defeating my West Virginia Mountaineers in 1987 on the strength of 150+ rushing yards from Thurman Thomas, who would go on to have a Hall of Fame career with the Buffalo Bills. A backup RB named Barry Sanders contributed 19 yards. The 8-4 Beavers were another team I expected great things from, but the Pac 12 was just so damn good this season. The 9-3 Fighting Irish are exactly who I thought they’d be…solid but not elite. I am picking Oregon St. for various reasons, though I’m perfectly aware that starting QB DJ Uiagalele has entered the portal & the head coach bolted for Michigan St.

My Pick: Oregon St.

Cotton Bowl (Dallas)

Friday 12/29

8pm/ESPN

Missouri vs. Ohio State

I’m picking this game because Zach’s hilariously irrational dislike of Ohio St. clouds his judgement. I’m not one of those people who think the Buckeyes should’ve received a playoff spot, but they are 11-1, with a six point loss to their archrivals in The Big House nothing to feel too bad about. The surprising departure of QB Kyle McCord into the portal is odd though. The 10-2 Tigers are one of the most pleasant surprises of the season, with a Veteran’s Day beatdown of Tennessee being a highlight. I think Missouri will prove alot of doubters wrong and it’ll be a fantastic game, but in the end a big night from receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. will seal the deal.

My Pick: Ohio St.

ReliaQuest Bowl (Tampa)

New Year’s Day

Noon/ESPN2

Wisconsin vs. LSU

Originating as the Hall of Fame Bowl in 1986, it was known as the Outback Bowl for almost 25 years. In case you’re wondering ReliaQuest is a cybersecurity company in Tampa, FL. LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels just won the Heisman Trophy, although his Tigers are a pedestrian 9-3. It feels odd to say that a team with nine victories underachieved, so perhaps it’d be more fair to say that head coach Brian Kelly is building something in Baton Rouge that needs a little more incubation. Meanwhile, the 7-5 Badgers have become a middle-of-pack team in a conference that is top heavy, with only a few teams receiving much love. Assuming Daniels plays, Zach doesn’t foresee the Bayou Bengals having a problem winning easily.

Zach’s Pick: LSU

Citrus Bowl (Orlando)

New Year’s Day

1pm/ABC

Iowa vs. Tennessee

There used to be a joke that you couldn’t spell citrus without UT, so it is amusing to see the 8-4 Vols land once again in a game they’ve played in a half dozen times, although to be fair several other teams (including Georgia & Michigan) have made just as many appearances. The 10-3 Hawkeyes fly under the radar, probably because their games tend to be low scoring defensive struggles. Zach thinks that kind of smashmouth style might help Iowa grind out a victory.

Zach’s Pick: Iowa

Rose Bowl (Pasadena)

College Football Playoff Semifinal

New Year’s Day

5pm/ESPN

Michigan vs. Alabama

I thought I’d do Zach a favor and not make him choose between his favorite team & one of his coaching heroes. Do I think ‘Bama deserved a playoff berth ahead of undefeated Florida St.?? Not really, but I understand it. The world robbed me of most of my idealism many years ago. Having said that, I believe the unbeaten Wolverines are a slightly superior team. I’d be shocked if we see a repeat of last year’s semifinal that saw TCU jump all over Michigan early then hold on for dear life for a close upset. Coach Harbaugh will have his guys better prepared this time. I’m not sure if defense truly does win championships nowadays, but I think that & special teams make the difference on this night.

My Pick: Michigan

Sugar Bowl (New Orleans)

College Football Playoff Semifinal

New Year’s Day

8:45pm/ESPN

Washington vs. Texas

There is a legit case to be made that Florida St. got screwed out of a playoff berth, but the question becomes who should’ve been left out?? Certainly neither of these teams. The undefeated Huskies vanquished every foe, including Oregon twice. The 12-1 Longhorns did taste defeat in the Red River Shootout, but a season opening victory over Alabama carries alot of weight. Zach foresees a shootout, with the Huskies escaping with a dramatic win.

Zach’s Pick: Washington

National Championship (Houston)

Monday 1/8/24

7:30pm/ESPN

Michigan/Alabama vs. Washington/Texas

Okay, so…I picked Michigan in their semifinal, while Zach chose Washington to win their game. I think Zach is right, and in that scenario it’d be Michigan against Washington for the title, which could be a classic. I just don’t think Jim Harbaugh is going to lose at this point. I believe he helps his alma mater win their first National Championship since 1997, and then, happy knowing that he left the program in better shape than he found it in nine years ago, heads back to the NFL. Conversely, Zach’s admiration for Nick Saban is unlimited, so he thinks the title game will pit Washington against Alabama, with an unintimidated Huskies squad pulling off a slightly surprising win to claim their first National Championship since 1991 when they shared the title with the Miami Hurricanes.

My Pick: Michigan

Zach’s Pick: Washington

2023 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 15

I sure hope this week isn’t as brutal as last, when we were both 2-5. Clearly we don’t know as much about college football as we’d prefer. At any rate, we’ve made it to the conference championship games. Playoff berths will be won & lost, while those left on the outside of that inner circle are jockeying for positions on the bowl game hierarchy. Let’s ride!!

My Season: 49-36

Zach’s Season: 40-45

New Mexico State at Liberty (-10.5)

C-USA Championship Game

The Flames won this matchup comfortably back in September and are coming in unbeaten. Unfortunately they’re a year too early to be included in the expanded playoff. The 10-3 Aggies played an extra game because they traveled to Hawaii. I don’t foresee this game being much different from the regular season meeting. Conversely, Zach likes NM St.’s dual threat QB and thinks it’ll be a close game. He has put Liberty on upset alert.

My Pick: Liberty

Zach’s Pick: New Mexico St.

Oregon (-8.5) vs. Washington

Pac-12 Championship Game (Las Vegas)

I know what I’m doing on Friday night!! Our local Christmas parade is at 6pm, but I should be home in time to fix myself a hot beverage and hunker down in front of the TV for a game with significant impact on the entire landscape. First, it is the final Pac 12 game ever, with practically every team bolting for “greener pastures” next year, which is sad. Secondly, the QB of the winning team…the Huskies’ Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix of the Ducks…will almost certainly become the prohibitive Heisman favorite. However, the biggest consideration here is that the winner will lock in a playoff berth. When these teams did battle in mid-October Washington scored a touchdown with a minute & a half on the clock for a dramatic victory. Since then both teams have kept on winning, but Oregon has looked more impressive. I think they take care of business and Nix wins the Heisman Trophy. Zach, on the other hand, foresees Washington winning with dramatic last minute drive, and believes the Huskies are legit National Championship contenders.

My Pick: Oregon

Zach’s Pick: Washington

Miami (OH) vs. Toledo (-8)

MAC Championship Game (Detroit)

I used to love some mid-week MACtion on ESPN, but truthfully I haven’t paid much attention for quite awhile. Since a season opening loss at Illinois the Rockets have reeled off eleven straight victories. The Red Hawks have had a very similar season except for their previous matchup against Toledo, which was a four point loss. Miami’s QB is Brett Gabbert, the younger brother of Blaine Gabbert, who was famously chosen in the first round of the NFL Draft ahead of JJ Watt and has worn more uniforms than a Village People tribute band. Anyway, I think Toledo gets a double digit win. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Toledo

Zach’s Pick: Toledo

Boise State (-3.5) at UNLV

Mountain West Championship Game

This will be the Broncos sixth appearance in the title game in the past seven years. They won two of those games. At 7-5 it’s kind of surprising they’re playing for the championship. Is the Mountain West that mid?? The 9-3 Rebels are playing in their first championship game since joining the conference in 1999, and The Vibes are telling me they’ll hoist the trophy on their home turf. Zach thinks it’ll be a shootout, with the favorites coming out on top.

My Pick: UNLV

Zach’s Pick: Boise St.

Southern Methodist at Tulane (-3.5)

AAC Championship Game

I didn’t give the Green Wave enough respect. Most outlets had them firmly entrenched in the Top 25 coming into the season after they finished 12-2 last year, but I gave that spot to UTSA (who finished this season 8-4). Tulane has duplicated their previous success and come into this contest 11-1. Meanwhile, the 10-2 Mustangs are riding an eight game winning streak. I am old enough to remember the glory days of SMU, with the Pony Express duo of Eric Dickerson & Craig James, followed by the “death penalty”, which shut down the program for a couple of years in the late 1980s and caused them to struggle for two decades. They have had some good seasons in the past ten years, but a conference championship would certainly put a bow on their comeback story. Zach opines that Tulane’s defense is going to need to step up and stop the high octane SMU offense, and he doesn’t think that will happen.

My Pick: SMU

Zach’s Pick: SMU

Appalachian State at Troy (-7)

Sun Belt Championship Game

When these teams met during the 2022 regular season the Mountaineers came away with a close win. The Trojans have won 10+ for the second consecutive year, while App. St. is 8-4 but have won five games in a row. I smell an upset brewing, so I’m leaning toward the underdogs. Zach thinks it could be the best game of the weekend, and he believes the visitors are a hotter team right now.

My Pick: Appalachian St.

Zach’s Pick: Appalachian St.

Texas (-11.5) vs. Oklahoma State

Big 12 Championship Game (Dallas)

The 9-3 Cowboys find themselves in this spot because they defeated in-state rival Oklahoma a few weeks ago, while the Longhorns lost to the Sooners in October but have beaten everyone else, including Alabama in the season opener, which could be weighed heavily by the playoff committee. Do “style points” factor into the “body of work”?? I think it does matter, which means the Longhorns will be left out in the cold if they don’t cover, even if they win. I would be surprised by an OK St. victory, but not shocked if they keep it close. That being said, I think Texas takes care of business. Zach doesn’t think the Cowboys have anything to lose so they’ll leave everything out on the field. He believes it’ll be competitive for three quarters, but ultimately Texas will pull away late.

My Pick: Texas

Zach’s Pick: Texas

Georgia (-4.5) vs. Alabama

SEC Championship Game (Atlanta)

Depending on which scenario shakes out, one or the other, neither, or both teams could be playoff bound. Could the unbeaten Bulldogs fall short in this game but still get the 4th playoff seed?? Perhaps. Conversely, the Tide almost certainly needs to win, and that season opening loss to Texas has to be important because invalidating head-to-head regular season results would be a bad look. ‘Bama leads the all-time series 42-26-4, but I think the favorites make the CFP Committee’s job a skosh easier with a 7-10 point triumph. Conversely, Zach has always been a huge Nick Saban fan. He has stated all season that Georgia isn’t as good as they’ve been the past few years, and he believes their luck will run out.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Alabama

Florida State (-5.5) vs. Louisville

ACC Championship Game

It might be the least attractive title game of them all going in, but maybe it’ll be more entertaining than it looks on paper. The undefeated Seminoles aren’t guaranteed a playoff berth even with a win, which is precisely why many thought expanding the field was necessary. The 10-2 Cardinals aren’t playoff contenders even with a victory, but a conference title and a New Year’s bowl game are worthy goals. Thus far Florida St. is doing just fine with a backup QB, so I think they win this game but get left out of the playoff. Zach thinks Florida St. will do just enough to win, and doesn’t see how they could be left out of the playoff in that case.

My Pick: Florida St.

Zach’s Pick: Florida St.

Michigan (-23) vs. Iowa

Big Ten Championship Game (Indianapolis)

I would be absolutely stunned if Iowa wins the game. At 10-2 they’ve certainly had a nice season and will receive a well deserved & lucrative bowl bid, but the unbeaten Wolverines are on another level. A win gets Michigan into the playoff, while a loss might not eliminate them completely, although too many unrealistic dominos would need to fall in that situation. I don’t believe it will be an issue though. The only questions are 1) will there be a hangover from the Ohio St. game, and 2) with bigger fish to fry could they possibly ease up in the second half, winning the game by only 15-20 points?? I’m going with “no” to both. Zach is playing it closer to the vest than me, taking Michigan to win but not to cover the huge spread.

My Pick: Michigan

Zach’s Pick: Iowa

2023 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 13

Both of us were 5-5 last week, which almost makes bonus picks feel like a waste of time. However, I can’t go that far really because having the outcome of those games matter makes them more fun to watch. We’re doing something a bit different this week…or are we?? I think we may have tried this concept once…perhaps a couple of times…in the past. Instead of both of us picking the same games we’ll both be picking five separate games. Enjoy!!

My Season: 43-30

Zach’s Season: 36-37

Wake Forest at Notre Dame (-24.5)

It’s the Sam Hartman Bowl!! The Fighting Irish QB spent five seasons in Winston-Salem under center for the Demon Deacons and became the ACC’s all-time leader in touchdown passes. Wake is 4-6, so they need to win out to become bowl eligible, while the home team is 7-3 and will probably end up playing in a top tier New Year’s bowl game because that’s how college football seems to work these days. Zach is concerned about the points, but he’s feeling frisky.

Zach’s Pick: Notre Dame

Colorado at Washington State (-4.5)

The talking heads have mostly stopped paying attention to Coach Prime since the Buffaloes are 4-6 and have lost three in a row. Having said that, the Cougars share the same abysmal record and have lost six straight games. Yikes. This is a Friday night game on FS1, which doesn’t bode well for ratings. The Vibes are telling me that the Buffs are desperate enough for the additional attention a post-season appearance brings, so they’ll be motivated to become bowl eligible.

My Pick: Colorado

North Carolina at Clemson (-6.5)

It hasn’t been a great year for the 6-4 Tigers, but they’ve won two in a row and would love to finish strong, building momentum for the future in the process. Meanwhile, the 8-2 Tar Heels hit a snag with two close losses at the end of October, which essentially killed their conference title aspirations. Zach isn’t necessarily predicting an upset, but he foresees a close contest.

Zach’s Pick: North Carolina

Appalachian State at James Madison (-11.5)

ESPN will be on hand for Gameday, and as someone who graduated from a school that took the leap from 1-AA/FCS to playing in a Group of Five FBS conference I understand how much that means to these programs. The 6-4 Mountaineers aren’t going to win the Sun Belt or get to ten wins as had become fairly commonplace until last season, but they’d surely love to go bowling. Conversely, the undefeated Dukes have sparked a debate about an outdated NCAA rule that precludes them from post-season participation because this is only their second year at the FBS level. Meanwhile, last year a 5-7 team got a bowl bid, and nowadays players transfer more frequently than most people change underwear. Make it make sense. Anyway, I think the home crowd & all the hype will help the home team, but the points are just too much. JMU gets the victory, but they’ll win by 7-10 points.

My Pick: Appalachian St.

Oklahoma State (-7) at Houston

The 7-3 Cowboys still have an opportunity to get to the Big 12 title game, but questions remain after the beatdown they received last week at UCF. As for the 4-6 Cougars…well, it’s their first season in the conference, and they’ve proven they can hang despite their record. They need to win out to be bowl eligible. Zach doesn’t think that’s going to happen though, predicting the favorites to grind out a hard fought victory.

Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma St.

Kansas State (-7.5) at Kansas

The Battle of Kansas is normally more interesting on the basketball court, but with both teams at 7-3 and not mathematically out of the Big 12 title hunt this could be a fascinating game. You may recall that I had high hopes for the Wildcats, but losing at Missouri back in September squashed those expectations. They did push Texas to triple OT a couple weeks ago before losing, which deserves a tip o’ the cap. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks came out of the gate strong but have rode the roller coaster the last two months. It’s a 7pm kickoff on Saturday night and a chance for the folks at FS1 to present a better game than the night before. I won’t be watching because I have plans, but I think the home team gets it done, or atleast stays really close the whole way.

My Pick: Kansas

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-3)

The AFC North is very much up for grabs, with the 5-4 Bengals battling back into contention after a rough start. The 7-3 Ravens are a confusing team, occasionally looking like the championship contenders that the talking heads promote them as being, but sometimes snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. That’s exactly what Zach thinks will happen, with Joe Burrow leading Cincy to a big win on the last possession of the game.

Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati

NY Giants at Washington (-10)

The Giants season has been torpedoed by injuries. At 2-8 they’re in the running to snag the top pick in April’s NFL Draft, which could force them to ponder whether or not QB Daniel Jones, currently on the shelf with a torn ACL, is really their guy. The 4-6 Commanders have shown occasional signs of life, but they could find themselves in the same boat, having to decide if QB Sam Howell is the future. As for this game, Washington isn’t a dominating enough team to beat anyone by double digits.

My Pick: NY Giants

NY Jets at Buffalo (-7)

What’s up with the Bills?? They’ve lost 3 out of the last four games and just fired their offensive coordinator (while Steelers fans everywhere shake our heads in amazement). The Jets have shown potential but are inconsistent. Neither team is out of division title contention, but they need to shape up rather quickly or Miami will win the AFC East easily. Zach has lost faith in Buffalo and thinks they’d be fortunate to win at all, but if it happens it’ll be by the skin of their teeth.

Zach’s Pick: NY Jets

Philadelphia at Kansas City (-3)

Is it a Super Bowl preview?? Possibly. Both teams should be rested & healthy follow a bye week, and the viewers of Monday Night Football will reap the rewards. The 8-1 Eagles haven’t blown anyone out, but perhaps that’s because they’ve known how good they are and haven’t needed to exert maximum effort. The Chiefs are 7-2 and will cruise to their eighth consecutive division title, but they’ve shown chinks in the armor. Whichever team establishes a ground game, dominates time of possession, and plays better defense will be victorious, and I believe the visiting underdogs are up to the task.

My Pick: Philadelphia

2023 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 12

Both of us were 3-2 last week, so nothing really changes there. The schedule is pretty stacked this weekend so we’re doing a double dose of picks. We are halfway thru the NFL season and in the home stretch with college football, which keeps things interesting as far as trying not to be repetitive. However, good teams & great matchups are what they are, so if we tend to focus on certain teams while ignoring others it is unintentional yet oftentimes unavoidable.

My Season: 38-25

Zach’s Season: 31-32

Michigan (-5.5) at Penn State

The undefeated Wolverines are battling for a playoff berth, while the 8-1 Nittany Lions still have an outside shot at playing for the Big Ten title. This is a Noon kickoff on Fox, which is a little odd, but it also means we get the broadcast team of Gus Johnson & Joel Klatt, who have become my favorite duo. The home field makes me skittish, but Michigan has dominated the rivalry in recent years, having beaten the home underdogs in six of their last nine battles. It’ll be fun for awhile, but I think the favorites grind it out for three & a half quarters before pulling away with a comfortable victory. Zach believes the time has come for his Wolverines, that this is the season they’ve been waiting for the past couple of decades. He has thought Penn St. overrated the entire season and forsees a huge win for his guys on the road.

My Pick: Michigan

Zach’s Pick: Michigan

Auburn at Arkansas (-3)

The 5-4 Tigers & the 3-6 Razorbacks have become afterthoughts in the SEC. Auburn needs a win to become bowl eligible, while Arkansas needs a win for a bit of self-respect. I’m a little surprised that Arkansas is favored, and I think the oddsmakers may have gotten it wrong. Zach agrees, predicting that the visitors will score a late touchdown for the win.

My Pick: Auburn

Zach’s Pick: Auburn

Miami (FL) at Florida State (-14.5)

This was one of the fiercest rivalries in the country a few decades ago, but it’s been a rough road for both programs in recent years. Both have shown signs of life here & there, though usually not at the same time. The ‘Canes are 6-3 but really have nothing to play for except pride and a more lucrative bowl invitation. Conversely, the unbeaten Seminoles can secure a playoff berth if they just keep winning. I’d be shocked if they lose, but can they cover on their turf?? Ultimately I foresee the favorites winning by 10-13 points, which they’ll be happy with but certain parties won’t like. Zach thinks State’s offensive firepower is just too much.

My Pick: Miami (FL)

Zach’s Pick: Florida St.

Mississippi at Georgia (-11.5)

The Bulldogs are still winning every game, but it doesn’t seem like they’re as dominant as we’ve all come to expect. Perhaps they are bored. If that’s the case they’ll need to kick it up a notch because the 8-1 Rebels have big plans that begin with pulling off an upset. Do I think that will happen?? No, not in the cozy confines of Athens, GA. That being said, I don’t believe the home team wins by more than ten points. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Ole Miss

Zach’s Pick: Ole Miss

Utah at Washington (-9.5)

Coulda, woulda, shoulda. It could have been a great matchup if the 7-2 Utes had their starting QB and hadn’t gotten smoked by both Oregon teams. They can still end up with a nice season and play in the Sun Bowl or Alamo Bowl, but a third consecutive PAC 12 title isn’t going to happen. Conversely, the 9-0 Huskies have a playoff berth on the horizon if they win out. I think it’ll be a decent game, but Washington is just too good and they’re not going to let their foot off the gas now. Zach isn’t totally sold on Washington as a playoff contender, but he thinks they’ll win this game.

My Pick: Washington

Zach’s Pick: Washington

Southern California at Oregon (-14.5)

While QB Caleb Williams snuggles his Mommy and plans a future as an NFL owner his Trojans have lost three of their last four games. Meanwhile, the 8-1 Ducks still have conference title and playoff aspirations. Oregon QB Bo Nix is my Heisman favorite and this is a fantastic opportunity to grab the attention of voters. It’s a 10:30pm kickoff on Fox, which I freakin’ love. Man those points scare me though!! When was the last time USC was a two TD underdog?? The folks in Eugene better show up & show out because their team needs them on Saturday night. The points are just too much for Zach. He likes Oregon to win, but believes it’ll be closer than two TDs.

My Pick: Oregon

Zach’s Pick: USC

Indianapolis (-1.5) at New England

In the preseason I opined that I was hesitant to stick a fork in the Patriots, but at 2-7 they’re even worse than I anticipated, which brings me no small amount of joy. At 4-5 the Colts aren’t that much better, but losing a starting QB does tend to affect a team negatively. We’re really setting new precedents this week, as I have to think that the Pats being underdogs in Foxboro has been rare the past couple of decades. It’ll probably be an ugly game, but somebody has to win, and I think that’ll be the visiting favorites in a low scoring slugfest that everyone will want to forget as quickly as possible. Zach agrees.

My Pick: Indianapolis

Zach’s Pick: Indianapolis

Houston at Cincinnati (-7.5)

The 5-3 Bengals have won three in a row after a rough start and seem to be hitting their stride in a wide open AFC North. The 4-4 Texans have shown flashes of potential just as I predicted. I’ll be much more interested in this matchup in a couple of years, but right now Cincy is clearly the better team. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Cincinnati

Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati

San Francisco (-2.5) at Jacksonville

Lather, rinse, repeat. Much like Houston, the 6-2 Jags look to be a team with a bright future, but they’re not quite there just yet. They’ll likely win a weak division then get bounced in the first round of the playoffs. Conversely, the 5-3 Niners had been, until recently, one of the more complete teams in the league, and anything short of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy will be a disappointment. Having said that, we cannot overlook the fact that they’ve lost three straight games. Why?? It’d be easy to blame QB Brock Purdy, and it’s a valid point. Don’t ever forget that he was Mr. Irrelevant and had eight signal callers chosen ahead of him, including Chris Oladokun & Skylar Thompson. Perhaps Purdy has been exposed. However, I actually think defense is a bigger issue and one that can be fixed rapidly, especially when you add a piece like recently acquired defensive end Chase Young. Call me delusional, but I still believe ‘Frisco is the better team and will dig deep to score a vital road victory. Zach forsees San Francisco relying heavily on their rushing attack to get an important win.

My Pick: San Francisco

Zach’s Pick: San Francisco

Washington at Seattle (-6)

If the 49ers continue to fold like a cheap suit the 5-3 Seahawks will be more than happy to take the division. I told y’all a few months ago that the NFC West would be hotly contested, and that might prove to be accurate if things continue down the current path. However, let’s not shortchange the 4-5 Commanders, who could easily be a couple of games better had the ball bounced just a bit differently. They will likely end up being as mediocre as I thought they’d be, but they’re a gritty team that doesn’t go down easily. I think the home field is too much to overcome, and Seattle will cover…but it won’t be a blowout. Zach doesn’t think it’ll be particularly competitive and agrees that Seattle is the better team.

My Pick: Seattle

Zach’s Pick: Seattle

2023 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 9

First things first…last week was atrocious. The less said about it the better. I did flippantly opine that I was about to self destruct with bonus picks, and that’s exactly what happened. I was 1-7, with Zach besting me at 2-6. He cut into my season lead by a game, but fell under .500 in the process. So now we move forward, hopefully with better results.

My Season: 27-21

Zach’s Season: 23-25

Penn State at Ohio State (-7.5)

It’s the current biggest, most important game of all time (until next week probably). The undefeated Buckeyes are ranked #3 in the country, while the unbeaten Nittany Lions are #7. Not only will the victor keep pace with Michigan in the Big Ten, but one can assume the loser will be eliminated from playoff contention, at least for now. I think the underdogs have played a slightly more challenging schedule, and they have two shutouts. No opponent has scored more than 15 points. The home team has held three opponents to single digits and not allowed more than 17 points. I expect a relatively low scoring contest…something like 19-13. I don’t know who will emerge victorious, but they won’t win by more than a touchdown. Zach has an irrational dislike for the entire state of Ohio. However, he also has little faith in Penn St. Coach James Franklin’s ability to win big games. He thinks Penn St. has been a bit overrated, but believes they’ll keep it close in a higher scoring affair than I’m predicting.

My Pick: Penn St.

Zach’s Pick: Penn St.

TCU at Kansas State (-7.5)

Clearly the 4-3 Horned Frogs aren’t going to match last season’s success, and the 4-2 Wildcats aren’t going to meet my lofty day expectations. It’s too early to know if either team can snag a spot in the Big 12 title game. None of that means we can’t enjoy an entertaining game Saturday night. I tend to stick with my preseason picks until I absolutely can’t, so that and the home field are enough to tip the scales toward the favorites. Zach isn’t as disappointed in TCU as some may be because he understands the amount of talent they lost. Having said that, he describes K-St. as “wishy-washy” and doesn’t think they can cover.

My Pick: Kansas St.

Zach’s Pick: TCU

Clemson (-10) at Miami (FL)

The 4-2 Tigers may not be elite like they have been the past decade+, but they’d still love to get to double digit victories for the 13th consecutive season. Competing for the ACC title is probably too much to ask, but if they win out anything is possible. Conversely, the 4-2 Hurricanes are looking for their first conference win, and they’ve lost two straight games. Of course they should’ve won one of those if it weren’t for one of the more boneheaded coaching decisions of all time. The ‘Canes do have the home field, and I just don’t like the points at all. It’s entirely possible that the favorites will prove me wrong and stomp a mud hole in their opponents, but I’m predicting it’ll be slightly more competitive. Zach forsees a low scoring game, with the team having less penalties coming out on top.

My Pick: Miami (FL)

Zach’s Pick: Miami (FL)

Miami at Philadelphia (-2.5)

It’s the Sunday night game and I’m probably going to miss most of it (I do grace polite society with my presence occasionally). The Eagles are no longer unbeaten after an inexplicable loss to the Jets, while the 5-1 Dolphins are averaging 37 points/game. I’m sure the folks at NBC are hoping for a high scoring shootout chock full of exciting plays, but life has taught me that when those are the expectations somehow defense ends up asserting itself and fans experience a letdown. I think Philly’s defense is superior, plus they have the home field, so look for something like a 27-21 game decided by turnovers & penalties. Zach is onboard with the TV suits, predicting “the highest scoring NFL game in a decade” (FYI, it would need to outduel a 54-51 defeat of the Chiefs by the Rams in 2018), and he likes Miami to get the upset.

My Pick: Philadelphia

Zach’s Pick: Miami

San Francisco (-7.5) at Minnesota

Okay, first of all I totally misjudged ‘Frisco in the preseason. Whether QB Brock Purdy is legit or simply benefits from top notch talent surrounding him is a debate I’ll leave to the talking heads, but he is firmly entrenched as the 49ers’ quarterback and it’s working out just fine. They too suffered a baffling loss last week though, and must rebound on the road. The 2-4 Vikings just haven’t gotten it together this year, and certainly miss star WR Justin Jefferson, who is out with a hamstring injury. They have the home field, but is that enough to make this game worth watching on Monday night?? Probably not. Barring some kind of unforeseen catastrophe the Niners should win comfortably. Zach concurs

My Pick: San Francisco

Zach’s Pick: San Francisco

2023 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 5

As a Steelers fan I’m still trying to wrap my head around what the hell I watched Monday night. Never has a win felt more like a loss. As a fantasy owner I am juggling a half dozen teams with various injuries & underperforming players who I can’t give away in trades. All of this while I just kicked Covid’s ass for the third time. It’s no fun, but even my healthcare provider said “it’s really not a big deal anymore”, so I thank God every day I didn’t bow to the pressure to receive a useless “vaccine” that is more dangerous than the disease it is supposed to treat. Anyway, Zach has drawn a little closer overall, and we’re both still above water. Hopefully doing a few bonus picks won’t turn out to be a bad idea.

My Season: 15-8

Zach’s Season: 13-10

Florida State (-2) at Clemson

My my how the turn tables. The Seminoles haven’t won this matchup since 2014, but now they visit Death Valley as slight road favorites. The Tigers are 2-1, though no one is putting much stock in two easy victories, instead choosing to dwell on the season opening loss at Duke. Florida St. is 3-0 and getting a lot of love for their season opening destruction of LSU. I’ve always liked Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney, who seems like a genuinely decent man. Now we’re going to find out just how good of a coach he is, regardless of the final score. This is a Noon kickoff instead of prime time, which speaks volumes. After six straight playoff appearances Clemson has been in a downward cycle for the past couple of years, and that’s okay. It happens. Conversely, after being one of the dominant forces in college football throughout the 90s Florida St. had some lean years and now appears to be highly competitive once more. It’s the circle of life. The wheel of fortune. Zach is taking a leap of faith on Coach Swinney, believing he’ll have his team ready to find their place on the path unwinding.

My Pick: Florida St.

Zach’s Pick: Clemson

Colorado at Oregon (-21)

Play time is over. Upsetting TCU was cool, even if it was more perception based on last season. Throttling Nebraska was nostalgic. Defeating Colorado St. in two OTs was thrilling and everything a rivalry game should be…hell, everything college football once was until greed chipped away at it like a woodpecker on a maple tree. Now though…now we find out if the Buffs are the real deal. The Ducks are 3-0 and have made it look relatively easy. We cannot overlook the fact that it is a conference battle, and the two top teams will ultimately meet for the PAC 12 title, making this a pretty important game. Coach Prime has won me over with his cool demeanor, hype skills, & genuine belief in his team. However, I think they will struggle to be .500 the rest of the way. Oregon might not be a playoff team, but they are a legit Top 10 threat. Zach concurs. He foresees the favorites winning quite emphatically.

My Pick: Oregon

Zach’s Pick: Oregon

UCLA at Utah (-4.5)

The 3-0 Utes have become the forgotten team in the PAC 12, which is probably fine with them at the moment. The season opening victory over Florida looks better every day, and QB Cameron Rising could finally be ready to play after missing the first few games while still recovering from a torn ACL suffered in the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, the Bruins are also 3-0, although their schedule has hardly been…noteworthy. This could be one of the best games of the day on Saturday, and I believe it’ll be super close. Decided by a field goal close. Zach also thinks it’ll be close, but ultimately sees Utah being good enough.

My Pick: UCLA

Zach’s Pick: Utah

Ohio St. (-3.5) at Notre Dame

The Buckeyes are cruising along without a care in the world. Starting the season with three cupcakes will do that for you, but now they’ll need to snap on those chinstraps tight and be prepared to play football. Not only are the Fighting Irish also undefeated, but they have the home field. A win for either team legitimizes their success thus far & puts them squarely in the playoff debate. A loss doesn’t mean the season is over, but it likely ends any national title dreams. I think it’ll be a hard fought battle. Notre Dame will scratch & claw and look pretty good keeping up with their favored opponents. They’ll have opportunities to tie or even take a small lead…but it won’t happen. Ohio St. is just a little faster, a little deeper, and a little more athletic. Conversely, Zach thinks Ohio St.’s QB situation is a mess and predicts Notre Dame will defend their turf.

My Pick: Ohio St.

Zach’s Pick: Notre Dame

LA Chargers at Minnesota (-1.5)

The Vikings just traded for (former) Rams’ running back Cam Akers because their rushing attack has been pathetic. I don’t know if Akers will be in the lineup Sunday, but after starting 0-2 there is some urgency there. The Chargers are also 0-2, but could just as easily be 2-0. It would certainly help to get RB Austin Ekeler back on the field, but he may miss another game. Neither of these teams has been getting blown out, they’ve just been missing…something…that causes them to fall just a bit short. Akers could be the missing piece for Minnesota, but I’d be surprised if we know that answer this week. The question for me is which defense does one trust more, and I think I have to lean toward the Chargers. Zach foresees a low scoring affair and agrees the underdogs will snag a mild upset.

My Pick: LA Chargers

Zach’s Pick: LA Chargers

Chicago at Kansas City (-13.5)

I listened with bemusement to talking heads hyping the Bears & QB Justin Fields in the preseason because I have the direct opposite opinions. Two games in & who looks good on the Bears/Fields front?? That’s right…me. Conversely, I am somewhat concerned about the Chiefs, although, to be fair, losing by one point to Detroit and being challenged mightily by the Jags aren’t reasons to hang heads in shame. For now I am blaming that overhyped harlot Taylor Swift for anything that goes wrong in KC. Will that include a loss to the Bears?? No…not even that twit has that much power. Will the home team cover?? That’s a whole different mediocre country pop song. I think it’ll be close. Gamblers nationwide will sweat as the outcome hangs in the balance heading into the 4th quarter. But then guys like Patrick Mahomes & Chris Jones will remember who the hell they are and lead their team to a two+ touchdown win. Zach has yet to be impressed by KC, but agrees that Chicago is terrible.

My Pick: Kansas City

Zach’s Pick: Kansas City

LA Rams at Cincinnati (-2.5)

The reason the Rams were able to trade Cam Akers is that 2022 5th round pick Kyren Williams out of Notre Dame has emerged as a legit NFL running back. If they can stay above water until receiver Cooper Kupp’s return in a few weeks the Rams might eventually prove that last year’s abysmal 5-12 finish was indeed an anomaly just one season after winning the Super Bowl. The team they beat in that Super Bowl was the Bengals, who did not fall flat on their face a season ago…they just lost the AFC title game. That being said, there does seem to be some concern about Cincy’s 0-2 start. They need a victory not only to quiet the whispers, but to keep pace with the Baltimore Ravens. I believe the Rams have potential to put it altogether, figure things out, and emerge with a better record than last year, but I think that’ll take some time and folks shouldn’t get too excited just yet. The home team has their back against the wall, which makes them dangerous. Zach thinks the fall of Joe Burrow will continue, with the Rams scoring an upset in overtime.

My Pick: Cincinnati

Zach’s Pick: LA Rams