2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 5

Unlike last week the schedule is loaded on both the college & pro levels this go round, to the point that we’re doing bonus picks despite serious reservations on my part. We’re already off to a shaky start and chasing wins is probably a bad idea. Ah well…c’est la vie. Zach (3-2) bested me (2-3) a week ago, and as a reward got an all- expenses paid trip to South Bend, IN, home of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Okay okay…his trip is work related and has nothing to do with these picks, but how cool would that be if we won awesome prizes for doing this?? At any rate, my philosophy of mixing things up & not picking games involving the same teams over & over is pretty much out the window this week, but good football is good football and I can’t control which teams are or aren’t interesting, so we’ll just go with the flow.

My Season:   10-13

Z’s Season:   10-13

 

 

 

 

 

 

BYU                 at      Washington (-17.5)

BYU really frustrates me. Every time I leave them out of my pre-season poll they turn out to have a decent team, while anytime I have them ranked they screw the pooch. At the moment the Cougars are 3-1 & a solid Top 20 team, including an upset of my #1 team Wisconsin. The 3-1 Huskies might not make it to the playoff like I anticipated, but they’re still hovering around the Top 10 and have a realistic shot at a conference title. I don’t think BYU will win this game, but the points are a bit much. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     BYU

Z’s Pick:     BYU

 

 

 

 

Oregon (-3)        at      California

The Ducks really let me down last week. They’re 3-1 and still ranked, but they would be an undefeated Top 10 team if they hadn’t given away the game to Stanford a week ago. Cal is a team that is perpetually overlooked in the Pac 12, but they’re 3-0 and ranked as well. I don’t know enough about either team to discuss specifics, but I think this will be a really entertaining game. The home team are underdogs, but I think they might pull off the mild upset. Sorry Ducks…you lost my faith. Zach likes Oregon’s offense to get the job done by a comfortable margin.

My Pick:     Cal

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

Ohio St. (-3.5)    at      Penn St.

This is the big one…the marquee matchup of the weekend. Whatever your opinion might be of head coach Urban Meyer, the Buckeyes, & everything that has occurred in Columbus the past few months the fact is that they weathered the storm and have been unstoppable thus far. They know a thing or two about controversy & weathering storms in Happy Valley, and the Nittany Lions have regained much of the allure of dominance that once defined the program. I thought Ohio St. would falter a bit in the midst of the Meyer kerfuffle, and I believed that Penn St. would sorely miss RB Saquon Barkley. I was wrong on both counts. It is a testament to how impressive the Buckeyes have been thus far that they will go into Beaver Stadium in front of over 100k fans facing a Top 10 team and are favored. I don’t really have a dog in the fight and simply look forward to a great game, and though I believe an upset is certainly possible I have to go with the favorites. Zach knows that I know that he refuses to pick Ohio St., but as long as they’re playing these big games there is always a chance they’ll be on our agenda.

My Pick:     Ohio State

Z’s Pick:     Penn State

 

 

 

Stanford             at      Notre Dame (-4.5)

It might get overlooked a bit in the shadow of the Ohio St./Penn St. game, but this is also a battle of two Top 10 teams. I’ve heard that sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good, but Stanford seems to be both. They were very fortunate to escape Eugene, OR with an overtime victory, a game in which Heisman candidate RB Bryce Love was held to just 59 yards rushing. After a season opener in which he ran for only 29 yards I think Love’s Heisman chances may be dead in the water, but he’s still a dangerous weapon on a good team. The 4-0 Irish haven’t really played anyone since the season opener against Michigan, but I can’t underestimate their home field advantage. If Notre Dame wants to be in the playoff conversation they have to treat this as a playoff game itself. Can Stanford’s luck prevail a second week in a row?? I don’t know…but I think no matter who wins it’ll be decided by a field goal. Zach did get to visit Touchdown Jesus this week but he flies home on Saturday morning and won’t have an opportunity to overpay for scalped tickets. It’s probably just as well because I don’t think he’d be able to resist the temptation to wear Michigan garb into Notre Dame Stadium and may have gotten beat up by a drunken Indiana millworker. He thinks both teams are overrated but likes Stanford to win a tight defensive struggle.

My Pick:     Stanford

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

 

Minnesota                   at      LA Rams (-6.5)

I really tried to avoid the Thursday night game, but this one is just too damn enticing. The Vikings were my pre-season choice to represent the NFC in The Super Bowl, but I had them losing that game to the Steelers, so what the hell do I know?? Anyway, Minnesota comes into this game with a less than impressive 1-1-1 record after getting hammered by the Bills last week. The Bills!! Conversely, I have heard more than one talking head call the 3-0 Rams the best team in the NFL. It might be a bit premature to go that far, but it is undeniable that they’ve put together an impressive squad on both sides of the ball. Their defense has some issues with injuries, and kicker Greg Zeurlein is shelved with a groin pull, so this is going to be a test of the team’s depth. I’m not ready to jump on the Rams’ bandwagon just yet, and neither am I willing to abandon my Super Bowl pick, so I’ve got to go with the underdogs and hope defense wins the day. Zach likes Los Angeles to do just enough to win by a touchdown.

My Pick:     Minnesota

Z’s Pick:     LA Rams

 

 

  

Houston             at      Indianapolis (-1)

I really thought the Texans would bounce back and be good this season, but at 2-1 they haven’t looked as impressive as I’d hoped. The Colts are 1-2 and QB Andrew Luck may not be at full strength quite yet. It’s way too early to make a solid judgment about either team, so I have to believe in my original thought process that Houston is clearly better. Zach hasn’t lost faith in Indy’s signal caller yet. He doesn’t believe that Deshaun Watson & the Texans will suddenly find their rhythm this week and thinks Luck will have a big game.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Indianapolis

 

 

 

Tampa Bay                  at      Chicago (-3)

The Bucs gave my Steelers everything they could handle last Monday night, but the FitzMagic ran out of steam. With Jameis Winston returning from his suspension the quarterback situation for 2-1 Tampa is…fluid. Things could get interesting. Meanwhile, the Bears look like they totally swindled the Oakland Raiders when they traded for LB/DE Khalil Mack, although to be fair we’ll have to wait & see what Oakland does with those two first round picks they received. At 2-1 Chicago sits atop the NFC Central, although I think they’ll ultimately finish behind the Vikings. Tampa won’t be able to slice thru a porous defense like they did in the second half of last week’s game, and that will be their downfall in a low scoring slugfest. Zach likes the Bucs to pull out a close victory no matter who their quarterback is.

My Pick:     Chicago

Z’s Pick:     Tampa Bay

 

 

 

Miami                  at      New England (-7)

If you would’ve told me a month ago that the Dolphins would come into this game in first place and two games up on the Patriots I would have said you were insane, but here we are. It seems that most people are scoffing at the reversal of fortunate, unable to process the idea that Miami might actually be good and refusing to believe that New England could finally be reaching the end of their domination. I too am hesitant to buy into those things, despite my longstanding hatred for the Pats. I’d really love to pick Miami, but it just doesn’t feel like the smart choice at the moment. I’d be thrilled to be wrong. Zach concurs. He thinks Brady will throw for 450 yards and lead his team to an easy win.

My Pick:     New England

Z’s Pick:     New England

 

 

 

Kansas City (-4.5)      at      Denver

In my NFL Preview I said that “I really sense a decline coming from Kansas City” and predicted that second year QB Pat Mahomes “might take some time…to figure things out”. That may end up being one of the most boneheaded things I’ve ever written. The Chiefs are 3-0 and Mahomes is averaging almost 300 yards/game with 13 TDs, zero interceptions, & a 66% completion rate. Conversely, I predicted that the Broncos would go 2-14. They’ve already won two games. So the question is can Denver’s defense rise up and make Mahomes look like a rookie?? The deciding factor for me is that the game is being played in the Mile High City. That may be something that Mahomes has to adjust to, and it might just be enough for an upset. Zach loves KC’s team speed and believes they are a legit Super Bowl contender.

My Pick:     Denver

Z’s Pick:     Kansas City

2018 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 2

Wow, the beginning of the NFL season kind of snuck up on me. When choosing which games to pick I could not pass up the opener featuring the defending Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles, but it’s a Thursday nighter, and early games for this procrastinator are an issue. Fortunately I think we’re going to make it just in time. I got off to a pretty good start last week. Zach?? Not so much. We’ll see how adding pro football into the mix spices things up. This is going to be quick & dirty due to time constraints, so enjoy.

My Season:        4-1

Z’s Season:      1-4 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Clemson (-12)   at      Texas A&M

The Tigers had no problem beating down Furman last weekend, and A&M easily defeated Northwestern State. I have no doubt that Jimbo Fisher will dramatically improve the Aggies in time, but it might take a season or two. Conversely, Clemson seems damn near unbeatable. This game is in College Station, which is traditionally a raucous crowd. That should give me pause, but it really doesn’t. Clemson might lose at some point this year, but it’s not going to be this week. Zach points out that A&M played on Thursday last week, meaning they’ve had an extra couple of days to prepare for this game. He likes the home field and thinks this will be a close game. The Aggies may not win, but Zach believes they’ll cover the points.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

USC                     at      Stanford (-4)

As good as Stanford has been the last several years it feels like it has been rare for them to be favored over the Trojans. Of course they do have the nominal home field advantage, which makes sense I suppose. Both teams had fairly effortless wins last week, so not much can be learned from those games. I feel like Southern Cal has been overlooked a bit in the offseason and no one is expecting much because they are trying to replace QB Sam Darnold, now plying his trade with the New York Jets. Conversely, Stanford running back Bryce Love is a Heisman frontrunner and getting all kinds of attention. The Vibes are telling me the script might get flipped this weekend. Contrary to what I’ve observed, Zach feels like USC is overhyped…but he thinks they’ll get a close victory.

My Pick:     USC

Z’s Pick:     USC

 

 

 

San Francisco at      Minnesota (-3)

Expectations are high for the 49ers, but perhaps we need to pump the brakes a bit. Sure, Jimmy G. looks like he’s going to be a good quarterback, but I’m not sure about the weapons he has surrounding him, a concern exacerbated by the loss of starting RB Jerick McKinnon to a torn ACL just a few days ago. The defense could be quite good though, with the addition of Richard Sherman in the secondary being a solid move. But if we’re talking defense you can’t look past the best, and a season ago that was the Vikings. I don’t expect that to change this year, and new starting QB Kirk Cousins could push his team all the way to February. Zach doesn’t buy all the Cousins hype and thinks Garoppolo will emerge as the better quarterback, but he likes Minnesota to get the close win.

My Pick:     Minnesota

Z’s Pick:     Minnesota

 

 

 

Houston             at      New England (-6.5)

On paper this might look like a mismatch, but I am convinced that Houston’s 4-12 record in 2017 was an anomaly. QB Deshaun Watson and defensive lineman JJ Watt are both back & healthy, so I expect this season to be much different. The Patriots are what they are, and any perceived chinks in their armor haven’t shown up on the field. I think both teams will make the playoffs, but from a psychological perspective a win in this one would be huge for the Texans. Zach likes Houston well enough, but he just can’t pull the trigger against the Pats.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     New England

 

 

 

Atlanta                at      Philadelphia (-2.5)

The NFL season kicks off on Thursday night with the defending Super Bowl Champs having the home field against the Falcons, who most of the experts are predicting will battle New Orleans for the NFC South. The offseason hasn’t been perfect for the Eagles, and traditionally it is difficult for defending champions to recapture that magic a season later. I believe that Atlanta might be a bit overrated, and I’m not necessarily sure what to make of Philly, but for now I think the afterglow of that Super Bowl win lingers on and make this another night to celebrate in the City of Brotherly Love. Zach concurs and thinks the Eagles will win by two TDs.

My Pick:     Philadelphia

Z’s Pick:     Philadelphia

 

2018 NFL Preview & Prognostications

The old saying is that “hindsight is 20/20”, and sometimes hindsight can also be absolutely hilarious. There is a Facebook page called Freezing Cold Takes which posts old tweets & comments from talking heads about players, teams, games, & draft picks that turned out to be way wrong, which is great because I’ve always thought it terrible that no one holds those people accountable for some of the outrageous opinions that they spew in an effort to get attention and stir the pot. Here at The Manofesto I do reflect on stuff I’ve written in the past and often call myself out on things about which I’ve been off base, and in looking back at last year’s preview I just have to roll my eyes that I said “football is a uniter, not a divider”, since the NFL proceeded to spend the next few months dividing the nation with their idiotic anthem protests. I’d like to think that this season will be different, but between renewed debate about those protests in addition to new rules that turn what used to commonly be referred to as a tackle into a penalty, I’m not sure football fans will be any happier with the NFL in 2018. Atleast they loosened up and clarified exactly what a catch is, so I suppose that’s progress. And as far as hindsight goes, a year ago I did throw out a plea for someone to “give Jon Gruden a coaching job and get him off our TVs”, so a shout out to the Raiders for answering that prayer.  As always the team’s record from the previous year is in parentheses, with the predicted record for this season following it. Enjoy.

 

 

 

 

North

Minnesota Vikings       (13-3)         11-5

Chicago Bears             (5-11)        8-8

Green Bay Packers     (7-9)           8-8

Detroit Lions                 (9-7)           6-10

 

The Vikings swapped out Case Keenum for Kirk Cousins at QB, which theoretically should be an upgrade. The defense was already stellar, and they’ve now added defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson and drafted cornerback Mike Hughes in the first round, so I see no reason to expect a dropoff. Minnesota won’t take anyone by surprise this year, but I still think they’ll win the division easily. The biggest surprise might be the Bears. I really like quarterback Mitch Trubisky, Jordan Howard & Tarik Cohen make for a great running back tandem, & I think wide receiver Kevin White (formerly of my WVU Mountaineers) will finally stay healthy and prove why he was a first round pick in 2015. My concern is with Chicago’s defense, and with this being new head coach Matt Nagy’s first season I think the playoffs are a bit much to expect. I feel like the Packers are leaning on their reputation but in reality aren’t that good. QB Aaron Rodgers has spent most of the offseason gallivanting around with new girlfriend Danica Patrick, and it wouldn’t be the first time that an athlete’s personal life has distracted them from their job. The Lions have a new coach too…former Patriots defensive coordinator Matt Patricia, who was indicted for sexual assault back in his college days but not convicted, something he didn’t feel was important to mention to the powers-that-be in Detroit during the hiring process. I think Patricia will get the Lions over the hump someday…but not this year. The roster simply isn’t good enough and the division is too tough.

 

 

 

South

Carolina Panthers                 (11-5)         12-4

Atlanta Falcons                     (10-6)         7-9

New Orleans Saints              (11-5)         6-10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers      (5-11)         2-14

 

The NFC South has been one of the most compelling & competitive divisions in the league the past few years, but I don’t believe that’ll be the case in 2018. Cam Newton is in his eighth season under center for the Panthers, and it feels like the time for hype is over and he actually needs to lead his team back to the Super Bowl, a height they reached in 2015 before getting throttled by the Denver Broncos. I’m just not feeling good vibes about the Falcons or Saints, although I’d love to see 39 year old Drew Brees end his career on a high note in the next couple of seasons. I foresee sharp declines for Atlanta and New Orleans this year. I’ve never been a huge fan of Bucs QB Jameis Winston…not because he lacks talent since he is actually quite capable, but because he seems like kind of a jackass. Once again he is being accused of improper conduct, this time for allegedly groping an Uber driver a couple of years ago. The NFL found enough merit in the charge that they suspended Winston for the first few games of the season, and I don’t think things will get much better for the team once he returns.

 

 

 

East

Philadelphia Eagles              (13-3)         12-4

Washington Redskins                    (7-9)           9-7

Dallas Cowboys                              (9-7)           7-9

New York Giants                   (3-13)         6-10

 

A year ago I predicted that the Eagles would finish 5-11 and have the third overall pick in the NFL Draft. Instead they won 13 games & the division and went on to upset the Pats in the Super Bowl. Now starting QB Carson Wentz is returning from a torn ACL suffered late last season, and Super Bowl MVP Nick Foles is the backup, which seems unfair to the rest of the league. The Redskins lost Kirk Cousins but replaced him under center with Alex Smith, which feels like a lateral move. The Cowboys have Dak Prescott back as their quarterback, but I’m not sure he has anyone to thrown the ball to after the departure of Dez Bryant and the retirement of tight end Jason Witten. Sure they have RB Zeke Elliot, but what if defenses stack eight in the box and dare Prescott to beat them?? That won’t end well for Dallas. As much as some may disagree, I don’t believe the Giants are going to get back into the playoff hunt as long as Eli Manning is their quarterback. Eli has benefited from his family ties and a couple of really lucky Super Bowl wins, but in general I’ve always felt that he is overrated and now he is on the downside of his career. The Giants drafted running back Saquon Barkley second overall, and he will undoubtedly open up the offense allowing receiver Odell Beckham to catch his fair share of touchdowns, but I just don’t think it’ll be enough, especially if the defense doesn’t gel.

 

 

 

West

Los Angeles Rams               (11-5)         10-6

San Francisco 49ers            (6-10)         10-6

Seattle Seahawks                 (9-7)           5-11

Arizona Cardinals                  (8-8)           3-13

 

Seattle’s Legion of Boom has been relegated to the dust bin of history and their once imposing defense looks totally decimated. But hey, atleast they still have Russell Wilson at quarterback, right?? That’s the only reason I’m picking the Seahawks to win more games than the Cardinals, because Arizona is going into the season with fragile Sam Bradford as their signal caller…unless first rounder Josh Rosen steals the job in the pre-season. The 49ers seemed like a completely different team after they traded for QB Jimmy Garoppolo in the latter stages of last season, and I think he’s the real deal. I’m not all that confident in the weapons Jimmy G. has surrounding him, but if the defense is as good as it looks to be on paper then ‘Frisco could pull out their fair share of tight, low scoring games. Conversely, the Rams should put plenty of points on the board as young QB Jared Goff gets in sync with receivers Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, Pharoah Cooper, & Brandin Cooks. Oh, and they have top flight running back Todd Gurley toting the rock. So if the defense is even slightly above average I think the Rams have to be the favorites by a nose over San Francisco.

 

 

Playoff Teams:   Minnesota, Carolina, Philadelphia, L.A. Rams, Washington, San Francisco

NFC Championship:   Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

North

Pittsburgh Steelers               (13-3)         11-5

Baltimore Ravens                 (9-7)           8-8

Cleveland Browns                 (0-16)         6-10

Cincinnati Bengals                (7-9)           5-11

 

It is a testament to how little regard I (and most of the football viewing public) give the Browns that I didn’t even realize that they went 0-16 last season. I thought they’d won atleast one game, but that was in 2016. I’m not all that enamored with #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield not because he doesn’t have potential but because I think Cleveland could’ve made some deals, improved their team, and still snagged Mayfield later in the first round. Actually he kind of gives me a Brett Favre vibe, and if that’s true then he could turn out to be the answer they’ve been searching for in The Factory of Sadness for many years. But for now winning more games than they’ve won in total over the past couple of seasons would be cause for optimism. If that actually happens then it could mean a last place finish for the Bengals, which I’d have to assume would bring an end to Marvin Lewis’ decade & a half long reign as Cincy’s head coach. I’m not at all impressed with quarterback Andy Dalton or any of his weapons, with the exception of receiver AJ Green, who has to be pondering an escape to a contender after eight seasons with a team going nowhere. Their defense might keep Cincinnati competitive in quite a few games, but I think they’ll fall short more often than not. There is a quarterback controversy brewing in Baltimore, with fans & sports media desperately wanting rookie Lamar Jackson (a former Heisman Trophy winner) to prove himself good enough to supplant veteran Joe Flacco. The problem is that neither quarterback has anyone noteworthy to throw to, and the running game is a triple threat of mediocrity. The defense is always stout in Baltimore though, which might be good enough to snag a wild card. The division is my Steelers’ to lose. A year ago I pointed out that “the AFC North isn’t their true competition” and that “the only thing on anyone’s mind is overcoming the Patriots and getting to the Super Bowl”. That is truer than ever after losing home field advantage to the Patriots on one of those stupid “was it a catch or wasn’t it” decisions and then not really showing up against the Jags in the playoffs. Much of the offseason in Pittsburgh has been spent dealing with RB Le’veon Bell’s contract demands, and it’s all but a foregone conclusion that this will be his final season wearing Black & Gold. That combined with Ben Roethlisberger’s advanced age makes 2018 feel like a make or break, all or nothing, all chips in the center of the table season for the Steelers.

 

 

 

South

Houston Texans                  (4-12)         10-6

Jacksonville Jaguars           (10-6)         9-7

Tennessee Titans                 (9-7)           8-8

Indianapolis Colts                 (4-12)         7-9

 

I really like QB Deshaun Watson. He may have been on his way to being named NFL Rookie of the Year until a knee injury took him out midway thru the season. Assuming that he is healthy & ready to go I have to believe that the Texans are the team to beat in the South. Philanthropic defensive tackle JJ Watt also had his 2017 season torpedoed by injury, but he’ll be back on the field as well leading a stout defense. There is a lot to like about Houston. I suppose most “experts” will be picking Jacksonville to win the division again and maybe even make it to the Super Bowl…but I’m not convinced. Obviously their defense is quite impressive, but I am stunned that they stuck with Blake Bortles under center, and the rest of the offense is just as prosaic with the exception of RB Leonard Fournette, who is an injury waiting to happen. The Colts’ entire season rests on the health of QB Andrew Luck, and judging by the past two years that’s not at all comforting. If Luck is back then the question is can he live up to the Peyton Manning comparisons that were prevalent when he first entered the league, and I just don’t see that happening this season. I’ve got to see more from receiver TY Hilton, tight end Jack Doyle, & running back Marlon Mack…not to mention the offensive line, and I’m really not sure what to expect from the defense. First year head coach Frank Reich really has his work cut out for him in Indy. I feel like the Titans will be about the same as last year, perhaps a bit improved defensively. I like QB Marcus Mariota, and Corey Davis should emerge as a legit top flight receiver, but with Houston rebounding from a season that I believe was an anomaly it feels like Tennessee will be on the outside looking in.

 

 

 

East

New England Patriots           (13-3)         11-5

New York Jets                       (5-11)         7-9

Buffalo Bills                            (9-7)           6-10

Miami Dolphins                      (6-10)         5-11

 

Ugh. I hate this part. The Patriots are like a damn cockroach that no one can seem to destroy. Credit where credit is due though…they have been resilient in fending off the competition for over a decade. Whether you attribute that to skill, luck, cheating, or something else is a matter of opinion. At any rate, I won’t predict their demise until I actually see proof of impending doom, and though I’ve been looking & hoping for that for a few years now it hasn’t happened yet. Everybody else in the division is just there to provide the façade of competition. The Jets have yet another new quarterback, although it is possible that veteran journeyman Josh McCown will start ahead of rookie Sam Darnold for a few weeks. Buffalo had a decent season a year ago, but I think they’ll fall back a bit in 2018. AJ McCarron is penciled in to start ahead of first round draft pick Josh Allen under center, and I suppose it is possible that either could emerge as a pleasant surprise. On paper the Bills defense seems like it should be good, so we’ll see. Ryan Tannehill returns from injury to quarterback the Dolphins, while Jay Cutler has re-retired and is doing reality TV. God help us all. There are some decent weapons available to Tannehill, but the fact that Cutler only got Miami six wins a year ago and Tannehill isn’t as good as Cutler doesn’t bode well. The defense has potential, but I don’t think that’ll be enough to win very many games.

 

 

 

West

Los Angeles Chargers            (9-7)           9-7

Oakland Raiders                    (6-10)         8-8

Kansas City Chiefs               (10-6)         7-9

Denver Broncos                     (5-11)         2-14

 

Thanks again to the Raiders for bringing Gruden back to coach, which means that ESPN’s Monday Night Football crew will consist of Joe Tessitore, retired players Booger McFarland & Jason Witten, and Lisa Salters reporting from the field. Sounds good to me. I don’t believe that the Raiders will be back in the playoffs just yet, but they’ll improve slightly and Derek Carr might get back to being the talented quarterback he was a couple of years ago. Amari Cooper and Packers’ refugee Jordy Nelson make for an impressive receiving tandem, and Marshawn Lynch & former Buccaneer Doug Martin should solidify the ground game. The defense seems like it has some questions, which is why I’m hesitant to make Oakland more than a .500 team. I really sense a decline coming from Kansas City. Second year quarterback Patrick Mahomes takes over for the departed Alex Smith, and it might take some time for the young man to figure things out. He’s got some fantastic weapons at his disposal, so perhaps the learning curve won’t be as steep as I’m predicting. The Broncos feel like they’re on the edge of the cliff. Case Keenum is the new quarterback, and we’ll find out fairly fast if he’s the talented guy that won 11 out of 14 games with the Vikings last season or the pedestrian backup everyone always believed him to be. If Denver’s defense gets back to being as great as they were when winning the Super Bowl a few years ago that’ll help a lot, but I feel like they were pretty good last season and the team only won five games. I can’t quite put my finger on it, but something is amiss in the Mile High City, and it might get worse before it gets better.

 

 

Playoff Teams:   Pittsburgh, Houston, New England, L.A. Chargers, Jacksonville, Baltimore

AFC Championship:    Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans

 

 

 

 

 

 

17

 

 

 

 

13

 

 

 

 

 

Top 5 Picks in 2019 Draft:

1       Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2       Denver Broncos

3       Arizona Cardinals

4       Seattle Seahawks

5       Cincinnati Bengals

2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 11

It’s been a busy week so I am behind. That’s cool…I like being busy. At any rate, once again bonus picks weren’t a good idea, as I was 3-5 and Zach was only slightly better at 4-4. The college football playoff rankings remain the same at the top, although a few teams (most notably Penn St. & Ohio St.) have played themselves out of contention so the field is narrow. The NFL is a war of attrition on a scale I don’t recall seeing, with so many big stars out for the year with injuries. We’re going to do our best to stay / get back above .500, but it’s probably best if we take things slow with almost two months remaining in our season.

My Season:        30-34

Z’s Season:        33-31        

 

 

 

 

 

Washington (-6.5)      at      Stanford

The Pac 12 North is a three team race between Washington, Washington St., & Stanford. Whoever comes out on top is probably going to get left out of the college football playoff, but I suppose a conference title would be a nice consolation prize. On paper the Huskies are a better team, but Stanford does have the home field advantage and Heisman worthy running back Bryce Love. This is a late night game on Friday so I’ll be able to keep my eye on it at work. I’m going against the grain and with the home team underdogs. Zach is completely confused and believes Washington State coach Mike Leach is coaching in this game, which he is not. But anyway, he’s picking Washington…I think.

My Pick:     Stanford

Z’s Pick:     Washington

 

 

 

Iowa                                        at      Wisconsin (-12.5)

Undefeated Wisconsin is the Big Ten’s last remaining hope to have representation in the playoff, but unfortunately their weak early season schedule (Utah St., Florida Atlantic, BYU) isn’t doing them any favors. The Hawkeyes are coming off of a surprising beatdown of Ohio St., and I think if this game were being played in Iowa I might have to ponder whether they could pull off a shocker two weeks in a row. However, with everything that’s at stake and the fact that the game is in Madison I don’t think the Badgers are going to mess things up. Zach is unimpressed by Wisconsin and thinks Iowa is good enough to get a second straight huge upset win.

My Pick:     Wisconsin

Z’s Pick:     Iowa

 

 

Georgia (-2.5)              at      Auburn

I feel confident in assuming that the Bulldogs aren’t going to lose their final two games against Kentucky & Georgia Tech, and things are set up so that even if they’d lose the SEC title game to Alabama they’d probably still get a spot in the playoff. So, the only roadblock left for Georgia is traveling to Auburn. Meanwhile, the Tigers still have an outside chance to play in the conference championship (they have ‘Bama at home in a few weeks) and perhaps even make the playoff, but this is a must-win. I hope that this game is as good as it should be, and since I have a few issues with how the playoff is decided and therefore root for chaos, I am pulling for Auburn. Conversely, Zach thinks Georgia is unstoppable.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

Notre Dame (-3)           at      Miami (FL)

Back in the day some folks called this matchup Catholics vs. Convicts. ESPN even made a documentary about the rivalry using that title a couple of years ago. However, this is the first time in a long time that the game has really mattered in the bigger picture. The Irish are a solid playoff entrant at the moment, but that could easily change with a loss. Conversely, the Hurricanes are on the outside looking in and have to get a victory. They’re going to be playing in the ACC title game regardless, but obviously a playoff berth is a bigger goal. A lot of folks say Miami hadn’t really played anyone until they beat Virginia Tech last week, and that may be a valid point. Notre Dame has had the tougher schedule…but not that much tougher unless you’re counting #1 Georgia, a game Notre Dame lost. I’m a sucker for home field advantage. I really do think it can make a difference, especially in college. That’s why I am leaning toward Miami. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Miami (FL)

Z’s Pick:     Miami (FL)

 

 

New England (-7.5)    at      Denver

The Patriots have reeled off four straight victories after a shaky start to the season, but still hold only a one game lead over Buffalo in the AFC East. Conversely, quarterback woes have doomed the 3-5 Broncos. I don’t know who’s starting behind center for Denver this week, but I don’t think it matters all that much. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, and since its being played in Mile High territory I guess there is always a chance it might be more fun & competitive than one might assume…but probably not. Zach believes the Pats will win big…possibly four TDs big.

My Pick:     New England

Z’s Pick:     New England

Winning & Musing…Volume 5.17

I have avoided doing a W&M for awhile, especially since football season (and our weekly picks) already takes up regular space here. However, there are a few things to address and so we shall. Being a sports fan has become increasingly difficult in recent months, and I’d be lying if I said I was as passionate as I was just this past spring. Too many “real life” issues have invaded sports, and I don’t think I’m the only person who hates that. Nevertheless, a lifetime of fandom doesn’t disappear overnight, so I move forward in hopes that watching a ballgame will eventually get back to being the frivolous distraction it is meant to be.

 

 

 

 

The baseball playoffs begin tomorrow. The New York Yankees will host the Minnesota Twins for a chance to join the Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, & Cleveland Indians in the American League field. The Colorado Rockies will travel to the Arizona Diamondbacks to decide who will be in the National League field with the Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, & Los Angeles Dodgers. In the American League I know I hate the Yankees, but other than that I don’t have any particular love or disdain for the other teams. As far as the National League goes, the Cubs won it last year and the Dodgers are a big budget, big market team that has the resources to buy a title just like the Yankees, so I’ll be rooting against both of them, to the level that I’ll be cheering for or against anyone at all, which isn’t saying much. I am a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, so basically I stopped paying attention to baseball a couple of months ago. I suppose I’ll watch the playoffs here & there, but to say I’m excited about the post-season would be a huge overstatement.

 

 

There are 32 NFL Teams, with 53 Players on each roster. That’s nearly 1700 players. Of those, 871 are convicted felons. 871!!!! That’s over half of the league!! That should provide a little insight into what these “protests” are really all about (other than a giant ant-Trump temper tantrum). Don’t misunderstand…I am not defending President Trump’s comments about the “sons-o-bitches” needing to be fired. In an effort to bond with Joe Sixpack and make himself seem like a down to Earth guy Trump oftentimes speaks about things which are beneath his pay grade and in a manner that, rather than making him sound tough & hip, offers ammunition to his critics on a silver platter.  Nevertheless, these “protests” have exposed a seedy side of professional sports, one that has always been there but that fans happily ignore. The bottom line is this…just because one has a right to do something doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

 

 

I haven’t really paid that much attention to the Louisville basketball scandal. As I understand it the feds are investigating the program for paying players via the Adidas shoe company. Head coach Rick Pitino and athletic director Tom Jurich have been put on “administrative leave”, which sure sounds like they’re out of a job to me. Pitino had previously been in hot water a few years ago for cheating on his wife with the wife of the team’s equipment manager, and not that long ago there was a ruckus about the program hooking players & recruits up with strippers. I’m sure there is more to come with all of this, so stay tuned. The sad thing is Pitino will probably be coaching again in a year or two…either a lower level college team or maybe even in the NBA (again).

 

 

The less I say about ESPN’s Jemele Hill the better off I’ll be. I’ve never really enjoyed her shtick, and certainly now I immediately turn the channel whenever she appears on my TV screen. Your mileage may vary and that’s okay.

 

 

Where are all those talking heads who were predicting an undefeated season for the New England Patriots hiding now?? lol The Pats are currently 2-2 and behind the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. I know I know…they’ll almost assuredly rebound, win the division, and be a significant threat to any playoff opponent. I totally understand that. But for now allow me to bask in the glory of their mediocrity and wittily mock anyone who seriously thought they had a chance to finish undefeated.

 

 

Speaking of the Pirates…..

Well, what else is there to say?? 2013, 2014, & 2015 were a mirage. The Pirates remain the epic embarrassment that they were from 1993-2012, and it appears that things will remain that way for the foreseeable future. Both GM Neal Huntington and manager Clint Hurdle signed contract extensions recently and, while I don’t think that the failure of the team should rest completely on their shoulders, the refusal of ownership to see that the status quo isn’t good enough is an indicator of more mediocrity to come. In my assessment of the 2013 season I wrote “the years of completely rebuilding over & over again look like they are done…a solid foundation is in place and now it is just a matter of doing some tweaking”. Oh how wrong I was. Things looked okay for a couple of seasons, but then it all fell apart. Perhaps extending Huntington & Hurdle means that ownership believes they can guide the team back to that success of a few years ago, but that seems unlikely. Almost all of the players that fans once anticipated being called up from the minors are now a part of the big league club, and it hasn’t made a difference. There is no good reason for optimism. There really is nothing left to say.

2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 2

I’m going to do something that, to my recollection, I’ve never done since beginning these picks six years ago. Last week both Zach & I picked UCLA to beat Texas A&M, which they did. However, the point spread was 3 and the Bruins won by only one point on a last second touchdown after completing a four TD 4th quarter comeback. It was such an epic, thrilling victory that I’m going to give both of us the win as well. Hey…my game, my rules. So what that means is that in the opening week of the season I was 4-1, while Zach was 3-2. Florida St. let me down, as they were manhandled by Alabama, while Zach should’ve had more faith in his Michigan Wolverines. This week the NFL adds a layer of intrigue to our little contest, and y’all know what that means…bonus picks!! Enjoy the games, and a special shout out to my Texas peeps recovering from Hurricane Harvey & Florida friends preparing for Hurricane Irma. We’re praying for you and know that you’ll be okay in the long run.

 

 

 

 

Pitt                       at                Penn State (-21.5)

The Nittany Lions were #2 in my pre-season rankings, and did nothing to dissuade me from that assessment in their season opening beatdown of Akron. Conversely, the Panthers had a rough second half and had to go to overtime to beat Youngstown St. Despite it being an in-state rivalry I don’t think this will be much of a game. Penn St. RB Saquon Barkley might run for 200 yards & 4 TDs unless they sit him the entire second half. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Penn St.

Z’s Pick:     Penn St.

 

 

Nebraska           at      Oregon (-13.5)
The Cornhuskers only beat Arkansas St. by 7 points last week, which isn’t a good sign. Meanwhile, the Ducks kicked the snot out of Southern Utah, just as they should have. Was last season’s 4-8 atrocity just an anomaly for what has been a successful Oregon program in the past decade?? It’s too early to say for sure, but there is that distinct possibility. I tend to believe that Oregon is better than they showed in 2016, but won’t rely on last week’s victory as any kind of accurate barometer. I also think last week may have served as a wakeup call for Nebraska. This feels like it will be a competitive & entertaining game. I’m not sure who will win, but whoever comes out on top will likely do so by less than double digits. Zach is a little nervous about the spread but likes Oregon’s high powered offense.

My Pick:     Nebraska

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

Auburn               at      Clemson (-5.5)

Oooohhhh this is a good one, and it’s probably flying a little under the radar. Auburn easily defeated Georgia Southern last week, which tells us nothing. Defending national champions Clemson beat up on Kent St., and that doesn’t mean anything either. So now that both teams have the kinks worked out it’s time to play a real game. In my pre-season rankings I predicted that Clemson would “taste bitter defeat at the hands of archrival Florida St., and will probably be upset in atleast one other game.” That Florida St. thing is looking a lot more doubtful now, but I think Auburn could very well be the “one other game”. Conversely, Zach doesn’t believe Clemson will have any problems and thinks they’ll win by two TDs.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Clemson

 

 

Oklahoma                    at      Ohio State (-7.5)

This is being advertised as the centerpiece game of the schedule for Week 2, but I’m not so sure. The Buckeyes got off to a slow start before defeating Indiana a week ago, while Oklahoma easily beat UTEP. I sincerely believe Ohio St. is the superior team, and despite having Heisman candidate Baker Mayfield at quarterback I can’t get past the idea that Sooners’ head coach Lincoln Riley is new to all of this. Especially since the game is being played at The Horseshoe in Columbus I don’t think it’ll even be all that close. Zach has an irrational hatred for Ohio St. and thinks they are overrated.

My Pick:     Ohio St.

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma

 

 

Kansas City       at      New England (-9)

The NFL is back and this is the big Thursday night opener. Everyone is so in love with the Patriots that it’d be hilarious if they screwed the pooch right out of the gate. The Chiefs are coming off of a successful 12-4 season, but I think they’ll fall back just a bit this year and be in a dog fight for a playoff spot. New England, in contrast to the sickening adulation heaped on them by the talking heads, won’t go undefeated, but they’ll probably win this game. However, can they cover the spread?? I think it is quite possible that the game is a little closer than nine points. Zach is sticking with the party line and predicting a 10 point Pats victory.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     New England

 

 

Oakland             at      Tennessee (-2.5)

Both of these teams are early favorites to win their respective divisions, with good reason…they are clubs on the rise behind the leadership of young & talented quarterbacks. I like Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr, though Carr is probably further ahead in his development. Both running games should be solid, and there are ample weapons for each signal caller to throw the ball to, with Tennessee’s offensive line being just a little more talented. The difference in this game will likely be defense, with Oakland’s pass rushing tandem of Khalil Mack & Bruce Irvin being a real headache for opposing offenses, while Tennessee linebacker Brian Orakpo leads the charge surrounded by a lot of unproven talent. The Titans get the slight home field bump here, but, while I think they’ll be a playoff team, I’m not buying that they’ll win this game. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Oakland

 

 

Seattle                at                Green Bay (-3.5)

This is an NFC title caliber matchup in Week 1. It’s going to be odd seeing RB Eddie Lacy in a Seahawks’ uniform and lining up against his former team, but I think he’ll do well. As a matter of fact, I have no doubt that both offenses will put on a show, so defense will be the deciding factor. On paper that advantage goes to Seattle. Zach thinks that the home field is a huge advantage for Green Bay and is looking for QB Aaron Rodgers to have a big day.

My Pick:     Seattle

Z’s Pick:     Green Bay

Save

2017 NFL Preview & Prognostications

In light of all the absurdity happening in the world these days it’s good to know that it won’t be long until we can spend hours upon hours every weekend curled up on the couch watching football and forgetting about life for awhile. Football is a uniter, not a divider. Oh sure everyone has their favorite teams & players and fans will good-naturedly debate each other over such issues, but at the end of the day football fans on opposite ends of even the most longstanding rivalries usually have no problem sitting down with a cold beverage and some tasty snacks to watch the game together. There is so much common ground. Raider Nation, Cheeseheads, & Philly Boo Birds can all agree on certain things…the Browns suck, Tom Brady is a douche canoe, RedZone rocks, and for the love of God & all that’s holy will some lowly team PLEASE give Jon Gruden a coaching job and get him off our TVs. So in preparation for that upcoming glorious day please sit back, relax, & look into the gridiron crystal ball to see what might be in store for the NFL over the next few months. Enjoy.

 

 

 

 

AFC

 

East

New England Patriots

(14-2) 13-3

Miami Dolphins

(10-6) 8-8

Buffalo Bills

(7-9) 5-11

New York Jets

(5-11) 3-13

Sports media has spent the offseason fellatiating the Patriots even more than usual, including shoving Tom Brady’s 40th birthday down our throats like it was some sort of religious holiday. Look, I’m not an unreasonable man. Despite repeated instances of cheating their way to success I will begrudgingly concede that any team that wins five Super Bowls in 15 years deserves kudos, but numerous outlets predicting an undefeated season is just silly. This is a weak division that New England will win easily, but I think they’ll stumble a few times along the way. The loss of QB Ryan Tannehill to injury and the subsequent signing of the suddenly unretired Jay Cutler doesn’t move the meter either way for the Dolphins in my opinion. They might be in the wildcard conversation early on but aren’t a threat to be taken seriously. The Jets are going to get worse before they get better, and the Bills are just treading water, with new head coach Sean McDermott being the latest guy that’ll lead the team nowhere before getting canned in a couple of years.

 

 

West

Oakland Raiders

(12-4) 13-3

Kansas City Chiefs

(12-4) 9-7

Denver Broncos

(9-7) 8-8

Los Angeles Chargers

(5-11) 7-9

The Raiders and Chiefs were neck & neck last season, but I think this is a year in which the future Vegas franchise establishes dominance while Kansas City takes a step backward. I really like Oakland QB Derek Carr, and with RB Marshawn Lynch coming out of retirement, WR Cordarrelle Patterson coming over from Minnesota looking for a fresh start, & Amari Cooper ready to emerge as one of the league’s premier receivers the offense will be difficult to stop. Khalil Mack & Bruce Irvin are a formidable pass rushing duo. The Chiefs feel like they’re in a transitional phase, with first round pick Patrick Mahomes biding his time until QB Alex Smith goes away, career backup Spencer Ware & third round pick Kareem Hunt vying to replace departed RB Jamaal Charles, and talented receivers Tyreek Hill & Chris Conley stepping up in the absence of the departed Jeremy Maclin. The defense will have to be the foundation for KC. Whether Trevor Semien or Paxton Lynch wins the quarterback battle in Denver their defense will also be the key to success. The Chargers have moved from San Diego to Los Angeles and will play in a stadium about the size of my apartment. I feel bad for QB Philip Rivers because I’m sure this isn’t how he’d prefer to see his career wind down. Anthony Lynn is an unproven head coach, although offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt & defensive coordinator Gus Bradley are former head coaches themselves. First round pick Mike Williams, a receiver out of Clemson, and second rounder Forrest Lamp, an offensive lineman from Western Kentucky, have already suffered injuries in training camp (Lamp is out for the season, Williams should return at some point), which isn’t a good omen.

 

 

North

Pittsburgh Steelers

(11-5) 10-6

Cincinnati Bengals

(6-9-1) 9-7

Baltimore Ravens

(8-8) 8-8

Cleveland Browns

(1-15) 3-13

I am normally very cautious when it comes to having high expectations for my Steelers, but I can’t deny the fact that they should clearly be the best team in the division. I’m sure everyone in Pittsburgh would deny it, but the truth is that the AFC North isn’t their true competition. The fact is that the only thing on anyone’s mind is overcoming the Patriots and getting to the Super Bowl. Having said that, this division is always a grind so I don’t expect the Steelers to run away with the crown. It’ll be a season long slog. I think the Bengals will be better than most expect, with AJ Green & first round pick John Ross forming an intimidating receiving duo and the much maligned Joe Mixon adding a dimension to the running game. Baltimore feels like they’re spinning their wheels. Perhaps they should crowd source their fans for solutions. The Browns are the Browns…a perpetual Factory of Sadness where talented players waste away valuable years of their career. They may show a small improvement this year, but really…who cares??

 

 

South

Tennessee Titans

(9-7) 11-5

Houston Texans

(9-7) 8-8

Indianapolis Colts

(8-8) 7-9

Jacksonville Jaguars

(3-13) 6-10

Much like the West, in which two teams that were even as they crossed the finish line last season seem to be headed on divergent paths, so it goes in the South, with Tennessee taking a leap forward and the Texans seeing their momentum stopped for now. I really like Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota, and he’s got some weapons…RBs DeMarco Murray & Derrick Henry, TE Jace Amaro, and WRs Eric Decker & first round pick Corey Davis. The offensive line looks good too. I’m not quite sure about their defense though. Houston will once again rely heavily on their stout defense while they sort out the quarterback situation. Tom Savage will probably begin the season as the starter, but I really like Deshaun Watson and think he’ll be one of the league’s best QBs in a couple of years. Colts’ signal caller Andrew Luck was supposed to be the next Peyton Manning, but things don’t seem to be working out that way, and I don’t expect Indy to improve. I had been under the impression in recent years that the Jags were up n’ comers, but they’ve gone backward. Unlike most people I’m not that psyched about first round pick Leonard Fournette, and QB Blake Bortles inspires zero confidence.

 

 

 

Playoff Teams:   New England, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Kansas City, Cincinnati

AFC Championship:    New England vs. Pittsburgh

 

  

 

NFC

 

East

New York Giants

(11-5) 11-5

Dallas Cowboys

(13-3) 10-6

Washington Redskins

(8-7-1) 8-8

Philadelphia Eagles

(7-9) 5-11

The suspension of RB Zeke Elliott isn’t a good beginning for the Cowboys. Whether he’s out six games or has the punishment reduced a bit I think Dallas loses atleast a couple contests that they otherwise may have won. That opens the door for the Giants, who enter season two of the Ben McAdoo era having done rather well last year and now switch out receiver Victor Cruz (now with the Bears) for Brandon Marshall (formerly of the Jets) & add first round pick Evan Engram at tight end. This is a tough division, but New York has to be the heavy favorite. The Redskins have spent the offseason in a pissing contest with quarterback Kirk Cousins, but also added free agent receiver Terrelle Pryor, defensive end & first round draft pick Jonathan Allen, and fourth round RB Samaje Perine. Still though, they feel like a team on the negative side of transformation until the likely departure of Cousins and the drafting of a new quarterback next year. I love Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz, but Philly is a team with too many moving parts & youngsters to really gel into anything good at this point. Maybe next year.

 

 

West

Seattle Seahawks

(10-5-1) 12-4

Arizona Cardinals

(7-8-1) 8-8

Los Angeles Rams

(4-12) 6-10

San Francisco 49ers

(2-14) 5-11

Seattle had, by their standards, a pretty mediocre season in 2016, lowlighted by a surprising loss to the lowly Rams in week two. However, they did make the playoffs before being beaten by the Atlanta Falcons. RB Eddie Lacy has moved to the northwest from Green Bay, and I expect him to be in shape & a significant contributor. The Cardinals are looking to rebound from a tough year and get back to the team they were in 2015 when they played in the NFC title game. It’s all about QB Carson Palmer. At 37 years old can he summon up one last great season, or will the oft injured signal caller just kind of fade away?? The Niners & Rams keep adding pieces in free agency & thru the draft, but it doesn’t seem like either team is closer to turning things around. This is the Seahawks’ division to lose, and I don’t think it’ll even be competitive.

 

 

North

Green Bay Packers

(10-6) 12-4

Minnesota Vikings

(8-8) 9-7

Chicago Bears

(3-13) 6-10

Detroit Lions

(9-7) 5-11

Much like Seattle the Packers just felt a bit off last season, even though they made it to the NFC title game. I think there was a lot of drama in the personal life of QB Aaron Rodgers that affected him negatively, though we’ll never really know for sure. At any rate, keep an eye on the backfield, where converted receiver Ty Montgomery will get some stiff competition from hardnosed runner Jamaal Williams, a 4th round draft choice from BYU. Otherwise I assume Rodgers will pass the ball a lot to an array of talented receivers and the defense will be overlooked & underrated. In Minnesota Adrian Peterson has taken his child beating ways down south to The Big Easy and it’ll be up to former Raider Latavius Murray and/or rookie RB Dalvin Cook to replace him. The receiving corps is…okay…but I expect QB Sam Bradford to be handing the ball off much of the time. Good ol’ smashmouth football for the Vikings. The defense will be alright, but might have to be better than that in some low scoring slugfests. The Bears will allegedly try to get thru the season with QBs Mike Glennon & Mark Sanchez, with first round pick Mitch Trubisky essentially redshirting his rookie season to learn the ropes. It’s a bold strategy…let’s see if it pays off for them (or even if they stick to that plan). There are some talented offensive weapons in Chicago…receivers Kevin White, Markus Wheaton, Victor Cruz, Kendall Wright, & Reuben Randle, RB Jordan Howard, rookie tight end & 2nd round draft pick Adam Shaheen…but none of that matters if the quarterback is subpar. The defense in the Windy City has potential but is, on paper, underwhelming. I am predicting that the Lions take a big step backward after a career year from QB Matthew Stafford in 2016. Their defense has been upgraded, but I don’t think Stafford can repeat last season’s success, and I’m not all that enamored with the weapons he has to work with. The Packers will win the North, and it won’t be close.

 

 

South

Atlanta Falcons

(11-5) 10-6

Carolina Panthers

(6-10) 10-6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(9-7) 10-6

New Orleans Saints

(7-9) 9-7

All anyone will remember about the Falcons’ 2016 season is their epic collapse in the Super Bowl, which is a shame, but also can be used as motivation. They’ll be almost as good this year, but other teams will step up to compete. The Panthers’ putrid season was probably an anomaly, and I expect them to flip the script this year behind new offensive weapon Christian McCaffrey, who’ll line up in the backfield but can be a receiver as well. I like Tampa and believe we’ll see the continued maturation of QB Jameis Winston, especially since he now has a really good tight end in first round pick OJ Howard and a talented group of receivers, including free agent signee DeSean Jackson. The Bucs will be in the playoff hunt. I am rather sentimental, so I’d like to see QB Drew Brees lead the Saints back to the playoffs as he winds down his brilliant career, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Signing free agent RB Adrian Peterson won’t be a difference maker since he’s way past his prime. Actually it’ll probably be Mark Ingram & third round choice Alvin Kamara getting most of the work in the backfield by the mid-point of the season.

 

 

 

Playoff Teams:   NY Giants, Green Bay, Seattle, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay

NFC Championship:   NY Giants vs. Green Bay

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers      41  

Green Bay Packers 38

 

 

Top 5 Picks in 2018 Draft:

1       New York Jets

2       Cleveland Browns

3       Philadelphia Eagles

4       San Francisco 49ers

5       Detroit Lions

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 15

football-introducing-the-science_1The only college games remaining are this weekend’s Army-Navy contest and all of the bowl games. We’ll be doing our bowl picks soon, but as far as this weekly deal goes it’s all NFL all the time from now on. Last week’s NCAA conference title games worked out a little better for me than Zach, as I was 4-1 while he was 0-5. I have a lot of thoughts about the college playoff and related matters, but this isn’t the time. Stay tuned. For now the NFL has its own playoff race heating up, so let’s focus on that.

My Season:        44-39

Z’s Season:        30-53

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oakland              at      Kansas City (-3.5)

I pretty much nailed the AFC West in my season preview, and as predicted these are the two teams battling it out for the division lead. The Raiders are riding a 6 game raiderswinning streak and I look like a genius in my dynasty fantasy league for snagging QB Derek Carr. The Chiefs get the home field bump, but a close examination of their schedule reflects the fact that six of their nine victories have been by less than a touchdown. I’m not sure that’s meaningful since a win is a win and they’d only need to win this game by four points, but if Oakland’s offense is firing on all cylinders it’ll be a tough trick for KC to pull off. Zach has concerns about the Raider defense but agrees that their offense will be the deciding factor in pulling out a close game.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Oakland

 

 

Houston             at      Indianapolis (-6.5)

The AFC South is even more mediocre than most expected. 8-8 might win the division. Indy has the advantage as long as QB Andrew Luck stays healthy. Conversely, Indianapolis_Colts_HelmetBrock Osweiler has been a $72 million disappointment for the Texans, although I think he’ll be alright in the long run. At this point I think the Colts have the better team and certainly the better signal caller, which should be enough to get them into the postseason. Zach believes Luck is good enough to lead his team to a two touchdown victory.

My Pick:     Indianapolis

Z’s Pick:     Indianapolis

 

 

Seattle (-2.5)      at      Green Bay

A few months ago this would have looked like a great matchup on paper, but with the Packers losing 5 out of the last 8 games and after Seattle’s decimation of the seattle-seahawks1Carolina Panthers last weekend it is difficult to get too excited about it now. I am far too lethargic to do any research, but I have to believe it is rare for Green Bay to be underdogs at home on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, especially in December. I’d love to pick the upset, but I just can’t pull the trigger. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Seattle

Z’s Pick:     Seattle

 

 

Dallas (-3)           at      NY Giants

dallas-cowboys-logo2The Cowboys are running away with the NFC East, but the Giants are in excellent position to grab a wildcard spot. This is the Sunday night Giants Logogame on NBC, and as such fans would obviously love to see a great battle. Personally I’ve never been all that impressed by QB Eli Manning…I think he’s more lucky than good. With defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul out with a groin injury it’ll be that much tougher for the G-Men to slow down Dallas’ dynamic rookie duo of Zeke Elliott & Dak Prescott. Zach has nothing to lose and thinks this could be a trap game for the Cowboys.

My Pick:     Dallas

Z’s Pick:     NY Giants

 

 

Baltimore           at      New England (-7.5)

I’d love to see both of these teams lose. It’d certainly help my Steelers if the hated Ravens were to go down. The Patriots’ offense will be hindered a bit for the remainder New_England_Patriots_Helmetof the season with tight end Rob Gronkowski on IR, but how much?? This is the Monday night game, so I’ll be watching pro wrestling. I suppose I’ll go the smart route and pick New England. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     New England

Z’s Pick:     New England

2016 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

kickoff_footballThe mediocrity continues. Zach & I both went 2-3 last week. He correctly predicted Louisville’s destruction of Florida St., an outcome I still can’t wrap my mind around, while the Buckeyes of Ohio St. didn’t let me down. I’m stunned that the L.A. Rams actually won and that Minnesota somehow beat Green Bay in the first game in the Vikings new stadium. The NFL season is difficult to figure out just yet, but we have seen injuries take their toll and some young stars begin to emerge. Half of the teams in my pre-season college Top 10 have already lost a game. If I were getting paid to do this I’d have a lot of explaining to do, but thankfully we’re just having some fun.

My Season:     8-9

Z’s Season:     6-11

 

 

 

 

 

Florida      at      Tennessee (-6.5)

tennessee_volunteers_football_iphone_wallpaperThe Volunteers are very quietly hovering just outside the Top 10 with a 3-0 record and victories over…well…nobody in florida gators imageparticular, unless you want to give them kudos for beating Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway a couple of weeks ago. The Gators are also 3-0, in the Top 20, and haven’t really played anyone, but their defense has only allowed 14 points thru three games, and that’s impressive no matter what kind of cupcakes a team has beaten up on. Having said that, we cannot overlook the fact that their starting QB is injured. The good thing is that Florida’s backup signal caller is a graduate transfer who started 11 games in four seasons at Purdue, so that is atleast better than some 18 year old freshman being thrown into his first taste of bigtime college football in front of 100k fans on the road. Did you know that Florida has won this matchup 11 straight times?? Can they make it 12?? Ehhhhh…I don’t think so. Tennessee quarterback Josh Dobbs is a real talent who will be playing on Sundays in the not-so-distant future, and I think he is the difference. This will be a close one, but I think Tennessee covers the points. Conversely, Zach isn’t sold on Tennessee…at all. He thinks the Gators will win easily.

My Pick:     Tennessee

Z’s Pick:     Florida

 

 

Stanford (-3)      at      UCLA

ucla_bruins2The talking heads are really pushing Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey as a leading Heisman contender and I have no reason to photo.stanfordtreeargue. In two games McCaffrey, a hybrid RB/WR, has over 400 total yards and four TDs, and both victories were against solid competition. Stanford doesn’t blow the doors off of anything, but they get the job done. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 2-1 after the season opening overtime loss to Texas A&M. UCLA doesn’t even get the respect of a home field advantage, and I think that might be a mistake. For no reason in particular I’m going to venture out on a limb and predict the upset. Afterall, with my record what do I have to lose, right?? Zach is riding the Heisman hype and thinks Stanford will win by a touchdown.

My Pick:     UCLA

Z’s Pick:     Stanford

 

 

Penn St.    at      Michigan (-19)

I chose this game simply because of the challenging point spread. I have no doubt that the Wolverines will win, especially in The Big House. They have penn-state-logocruised to a 3-0 record and are probably glad to get into the conference schedule. The Nittany Lions are still alternately worshiping and fighting against the ghost of Joe Paterno, which atleast gives the talking heads something to yap about, but on the field they are 2-1, with a close loss to in-state rival Pitt balanced out by a close win over in-state rival Temple. I’m going to roll the dice again by predicting that Michigan will win but it’ll be a little closer than the folks in Vegas seem to think. Probably something along the lines of 42-24. Surprisingly Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Penn St.

Z’s Pick:     Penn St.

 

 

 

Arkansas  at      Texas A&M (-6)

I feel like the Razorbacks are a team that gets lost in the shuffle amongst the glitz & glamor of the SEC. I suppose that’s understandable given that theyarkansas-razorback-logo haven’t even sniffed ten wins since 2011. However thus far they are 3-0, including a triple OT win over highly regarded TCU. The Aggies are also 3-0, with solid victories over UCLA & Auburn. I must be in a gambling mood because I’m leaning toward another upset. I think this might come down to a last second field goal or something similar, meaning it’s possible that A&M could win the game but not cover the points. Zach thinks A&M is…scrappy. However he too is picking the upset.

My Pick:     Arkansas

Z’s Pick:     Arkansas

 

 

 

Houston (-2.5)   at      New England

houston-texans-mobile-wallpaperThis is really interesting. It isn’t often that you see the Patriots as underdogs at home. However Lil Tommy is still on Fidel Goodell patriotsimposed home confinement for tampering with his balls, and things got worse when backup Jimmy Garoppolo’s shoulder was injured last weekend. So now third string QB Jacoby Brissett, a rookie from NC State chosen in the 3rd round of the NFL Draft, steps up to the plate (I love me some mixed metaphors). The talking heads don’t seem to be all that concerned about the situation, which is confusing to me. Either Tom Brady is the best quarterback that’s ever graced a gridiron, or Bill Belichick is a mastermind with the combined coaching prowess of Vince Lombardi, Knute Rockne, & Mr. Miyagi who could lead the Patriots to the Super Bowl with the love child of Uncle Rico & Jamarcus Russell behind center…you can’t have it both ways. I tend to lean toward the latter since I think there are atleast a dozen legendary quarterbacks better than Brady, but there’s no denying that New England can never be counted out. If they were playing Cleveland or the Rams or Miami this week I’d probably be persuaded toward the Pats despite the QB situation. However, the 2-0 Texans have looked pretty darn good so far and have emerged as the clear favorites in the AFC South. The point spread is almost nothing, and I think Houston covers easily. Zach likes Houston’s defense, but like so many others he trusts Belichick’s particular brand of magic (which oftentimes looks an awful lot like cheating in my opinion).

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     New England

Winning & Musing…..Volume 4.15

Greetings friends & fellow sports fans. I have a few things I have to get off my chest. You know how it is, right?? We just want to sit back, relax, & enjoy the games, but sometimes there are destructive forces that seem to prevent that from happening. It probably has a lot to do with too much media. There are too many opinionated talking heads with too many hours to fill, and a plethora of Internet sites that have to have more content than highlights & box scores. What we end up with is information & analysis overload that is kind of a buzzkill. At any rate, allow me to kvetch a bit and let’s get some feedback going. Your opinions matter too.

 

 

 

 
cowherdVictory!!!! I mentioned in the last edition of W&M that I had turned my back on ESPN’s Colin Cowherd after he’d gone too far with his insufferable assclown shtick and made some disparaging comments about pro wrestling fans. At the time I had somewhat jokingly initiated a #boycottCowherd movement on Twitter, which had prompted a surprisingly vociferous response on both sides of the issue. However, even in the midst of my anger & disdain I said that “I’m not crazy enough to think that one man can take down an entire TV show”. But now…just a few months later…Colin Cowherd is gone from ESPN!! To be fair he had already announced his impending departure from The Mothership in Bristol so he could move on to Fox Sports 1, but he didn’t even get to finish whatever time he had left before ESPN threw him off the air. The funny thing is, after seeing the clip, I almost kinda sorta understand what he was trying to say about Dominicans & baseball and found those remarks much less malicious than what he had said about wrestling fans. I’m no fan of ESPN’s social agenda and I despise political correctness & how so many people are perpetually offended, but I have to say that I am so happy that Cowherd was fired. Agenda issues aside, moving from ESPN to Fox Sports 1 is like trading in a Camaro for a minivan, and it couldn’t have happened to a more spiteful moron than Cowherd.

 

 

I’m not trying to be negative, but I also have to express disgust for NASCAR, something I really liked just a few nascarweeks ago. It was certainly below football, baseball, & basketball on my fandom scale, but it was above hockey and in a dead heat with golf. However, after both their “most popular driver” Dale Earnhardt Jr. (who is an insult to his father’s name) and the suit that runs the sport both came out against the Confederate battle flag, thus taking a dump all over the heritage of the very people on whose backs the sport had been built, I decided that I don’t need NASCAR in my life any longer and haven’t watched a race since. NASCAR has grown by leaps & bounds in the past two decades, evolving from a niche “southern” sport to running races in California, Michigan, Kansas, Las Vegas, & New Hampshire, among others. That’s fine. Kudos. But my father taught me to never forget where you come from, and the truth is that NASCAR owes everything to the American South…places like Atlanta, Bristol (TN), Richmond, Darlington (SC), The Carolinas, Talledega (AL), & Daytona. It all started there, and if it wasn’t for those loyal fans there’d be no big money TV contracts, no commercials & other outside opportunities for guys like Dale Jr., & nowhere near the revenue that the business now generates. Shame on you NASCAR!! Shame on you for turning your backs on the people that allowed you to become what you are. Shame on you for kneeling & bowing to political correctness. The funny thing is, the powers that be haven’t had the cahonas (thus far) to outright ban the flag, and from what I understand fans have continued to defiantly show up to the tracks flying it proudly. Good for them. As for anyone else who remains a fan, I won’t discourage your continued interest. It’s a free country (for now) and you have the right to spend your time & discretionary income any way you wish, but I’m out. I just can’t support blatant hypocrisy.

 

 

PNCI had an opportunity a few weeks ago to finally attend my first game at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The circumstances weren’t ideal (it’s a long story) so I didn’t have time to explore like I wanted, but it is a beautiful stadium. The game I was at went 14 innings and the Pirates thankfully pulled off a dramatic victory, which was super cool. Anyone in that area who has even a mild interest in baseball or are just looking for a fun evening should check the place out. However, I must say that, for the most part, I think I am just as satisfied to stay home and watch games on TV. I’m a fervent homebody, and kind of like having commentary, replay, & my own (cheap) food to eat.

 

 

Even as an ardent Tom Brady/New England Patriots hater I am as sick as everyone else of hearing about bradyDeflateGate. For the first time EVER I have to give a tip of the ol’ cap to NFL Commissioner Fidel Goodell for upholding Brady’s original 4 game suspension. It says all one needs to know about Brady that, unlike every other NFL player that gets suspended then appeals that suspension before ultimately taking their punishment like a man, The Golden Boy is apparently going to take this thing to court like the entitled diva that he is. I must admit that the dark side of me (we all have one) wouldn’t mind seeing Brady get to play in the first game of the season against my Pittsburgh Steelers so their defense might have the opportunity to sideline his whiny ass for longer than four games.
Yeah…I just went there!!

 

 

I am fully aware that pro wrestling isn’t an actual sport (we’re not as dumb as Cowherd thinks we are), so this probably doesn’t quite fit here, but…..
As a fan of Hulk Hogan since childhood I was disappointed to hear his racist remarks that recently became fodder for public discourse. I’ve known for awhile that the character Hogan played while WWF champion in the 80’s wasn’t a true reflection of the real man, aka Terry Bollea. The fact that he’s kind of a jackwagon isn’t all that shocking. That being said, I disagree with WWE cleansing him from their history. As with the Confederate flag issue, I find it disturbing to just erase the past as if it never happened. WWE doesn’t want Hogan to appear hulkanymore on their TV shows?? Fine. That’s understandable and a wise business decision. Hogan can’t wrestle anymore anyway…he’s got more artificial parts than one of his action figures. Fans have moved on. But the fact is that Hulk Hogan is a huge reason why professional wrestling became so popular 30 years ago and retains atleast some of that popularity today. There are, of course, other legends that helped build the business. Bruno Sammartino & Andre the Giant preceded Hogan. Ric Flair was Hogan’s peer in the 1980’s. Shawn Michaels, Bret Hart, “Stone Cold” Steve Austin, The Rock, The Undertaker, & John Cena were successors to Hogan’s throne. However, it is Hulk Hogan that was & is the cornerstone of the industry. He obviously has no future with WWE or any other company, and that is his own fault. The past though should be left alone.