2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 6

Time flies when you’re having fun, and we’ve already reached the quarter pole in the NFL and are almost to the halfway point in the NCAA. At this point some trends are emerging and we should have enough information to make smarter picks…but no promises. Last week was good for both of us, as I went 4-1 and Zach was 3-2. We both still have our head above water, which is nice. Oh, and the Patriots lost again, and it’s always a glorious weekend when the Patriots lose. I’ve decided not to let certain off the field issues affect my enjoyment of football, so I feel better about things than I had the past couple of weeks.

My Season:        17-12

Z’s Season:        15-13

 

 

 

 

 

Boise State (-8)           at      BYU

I think we may have unconsciously started a new tradition. Since my job is a) not usually full of excitement, & b) allows me access to a television, I have begun to look at west coast games that kick off around 10:30pm EST on Friday & Saturday night and think seriously about including them here if the matchup is intriguing. This is a Friday night kickoff on ESPN that features two teams that are oftentimes ranked in my pre-season poll. The shine has worn off Boise St. just a bit from when they were a shiny new curiosity several years ago that kept winning big bowl games and compiling 11 & 12 win seasons, but they’re still a pretty solid program. BYU is more inconsistent. Sometimes they have a really nice season, other years they aren’t good at all. It might help if they were to join a conference…like maybe the Big 12 (which has 10 teams). Thus far in 2017 the Broncos are 2-2, with a heartbreaking three OT loss to Washington St. in the mix, while the Cougars are 1-4 against a rather tough schedule. BYU has the home field, which piques my interest. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that a field goal will decide this game one way or another. Zach believes Boise is plainly the better team and will win easily.

My Pick:     BYU

Z’s Pick:     Boise St.

 

 

Georgia (-17.5)            at      Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt is the Chuck Cunningham of the SEC, hidden away in the basement where no one ever talks about them…except that people are talking about them a little bit this season. The Commodores are 3-2, but upset Kansas St. and played respectably in a loss to Florida. Is it too soon to be thinking of possible bowl destinations?? Probably. The Bulldogs are 5-0 and could find themselves in the playoff discussion when the first rankings come out soon. I think this will be a competitive game for awhile, and the points do give me pause, but I believe Georgia will cover. Zach is on board the Bulldog playoff train and thinks they’ll win big.

My Pick:     Georgia

Z’s Pick:     Georgia

 

 

Miami (FL) (-3)              at      Florida State

This game was originally scheduled for a few weeks ago but had to be postponed when Hurricane Irma hit the Sunshine State. The Seminoles are 1-2 and trying to right the ship after losing their starting QB to injury in the season opener. The Hurricanes are rolling at 3-0, though they haven’t been tested yet. For Florida St. this is a must-win for obvious reasons. For Miami a victory would prove they are the real deal. I’m really not sure what to think to be honest, but The Vibes are telling me Florida St. isn’t as bad as they’ve looked so far. Conversely, Zach is all in on the Seminoles truly being horrible and thinks they’ll lose this game by four TDs.

My Pick:     Florida St.

Z’s Pick:     Miami

 

 

Buffalo                at      Cincinnati (-3)

I’m not a gambler and I don’t know what kind of crazy prop bets are available in Vegas, but if anyone would have put any kind of significant money on the Bills being in 1st Place in the AFC East four games into the season I’m guessing their bank account would be quite impressive right now. Obviously most people don’t expect it to last, but just how long can they keep it going?? Meanwhile, the Bengals are 1-3, though they did take Green Bay to overtime before losing a couple of weeks ago. I’m a little surprised that Cincinnati is favored. Sure they have the home field, but Buffalo has clearly been the better team. The Bills have to keep winning to keep up with the Patriots, who will surely get back on track soon enough. Zach likes Buffalo’s defense and believes the firing of former coach Rex Ryan was addition by subtraction.

My Pick:     Buffalo

Z’s Pick:     Buffalo

 

 

Green Bay                   at      Dallas (-2.5)

I might not get quite the level of enjoyment out of Dallas losing that I experience when New England gets beat, but it’s pretty darn close. America’s Team my foot lol!! Anyway, the Cowboys are 2-2 while the Packers are 3-1. Dallas gets the home field bump, but clearly the oddsmakers aren’t totally convinced. Neither am I, and Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Green Bay

Z’s Pick:     Green Bay

Winning & Musing…Volume 5.17

I have avoided doing a W&M for awhile, especially since football season (and our weekly picks) already takes up regular space here. However, there are a few things to address and so we shall. Being a sports fan has become increasingly difficult in recent months, and I’d be lying if I said I was as passionate as I was just this past spring. Too many “real life” issues have invaded sports, and I don’t think I’m the only person who hates that. Nevertheless, a lifetime of fandom doesn’t disappear overnight, so I move forward in hopes that watching a ballgame will eventually get back to being the frivolous distraction it is meant to be.

 

 

 

 

The baseball playoffs begin tomorrow. The New York Yankees will host the Minnesota Twins for a chance to join the Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, & Cleveland Indians in the American League field. The Colorado Rockies will travel to the Arizona Diamondbacks to decide who will be in the National League field with the Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs, & Los Angeles Dodgers. In the American League I know I hate the Yankees, but other than that I don’t have any particular love or disdain for the other teams. As far as the National League goes, the Cubs won it last year and the Dodgers are a big budget, big market team that has the resources to buy a title just like the Yankees, so I’ll be rooting against both of them, to the level that I’ll be cheering for or against anyone at all, which isn’t saying much. I am a Pittsburgh Pirates fan, so basically I stopped paying attention to baseball a couple of months ago. I suppose I’ll watch the playoffs here & there, but to say I’m excited about the post-season would be a huge overstatement.

 

 

There are 32 NFL Teams, with 53 Players on each roster. That’s nearly 1700 players. Of those, 871 are convicted felons. 871!!!! That’s over half of the league!! That should provide a little insight into what these “protests” are really all about (other than a giant ant-Trump temper tantrum). Don’t misunderstand…I am not defending President Trump’s comments about the “sons-o-bitches” needing to be fired. In an effort to bond with Joe Sixpack and make himself seem like a down to Earth guy Trump oftentimes speaks about things which are beneath his pay grade and in a manner that, rather than making him sound tough & hip, offers ammunition to his critics on a silver platter.  Nevertheless, these “protests” have exposed a seedy side of professional sports, one that has always been there but that fans happily ignore. The bottom line is this…just because one has a right to do something doesn’t mean it’s a good idea.

 

 

I haven’t really paid that much attention to the Louisville basketball scandal. As I understand it the feds are investigating the program for paying players via the Adidas shoe company. Head coach Rick Pitino and athletic director Tom Jurich have been put on “administrative leave”, which sure sounds like they’re out of a job to me. Pitino had previously been in hot water a few years ago for cheating on his wife with the wife of the team’s equipment manager, and not that long ago there was a ruckus about the program hooking players & recruits up with strippers. I’m sure there is more to come with all of this, so stay tuned. The sad thing is Pitino will probably be coaching again in a year or two…either a lower level college team or maybe even in the NBA (again).

 

 

The less I say about ESPN’s Jemele Hill the better off I’ll be. I’ve never really enjoyed her shtick, and certainly now I immediately turn the channel whenever she appears on my TV screen. Your mileage may vary and that’s okay.

 

 

Where are all those talking heads who were predicting an undefeated season for the New England Patriots hiding now?? lol The Pats are currently 2-2 and behind the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East. I know I know…they’ll almost assuredly rebound, win the division, and be a significant threat to any playoff opponent. I totally understand that. But for now allow me to bask in the glory of their mediocrity and wittily mock anyone who seriously thought they had a chance to finish undefeated.

 

 

Speaking of the Pirates…..

Well, what else is there to say?? 2013, 2014, & 2015 were a mirage. The Pirates remain the epic embarrassment that they were from 1993-2012, and it appears that things will remain that way for the foreseeable future. Both GM Neal Huntington and manager Clint Hurdle signed contract extensions recently and, while I don’t think that the failure of the team should rest completely on their shoulders, the refusal of ownership to see that the status quo isn’t good enough is an indicator of more mediocrity to come. In my assessment of the 2013 season I wrote “the years of completely rebuilding over & over again look like they are done…a solid foundation is in place and now it is just a matter of doing some tweaking”. Oh how wrong I was. Things looked okay for a couple of seasons, but then it all fell apart. Perhaps extending Huntington & Hurdle means that ownership believes they can guide the team back to that success of a few years ago, but that seems unlikely. Almost all of the players that fans once anticipated being called up from the minors are now a part of the big league club, and it hasn’t made a difference. There is no good reason for optimism. There really is nothing left to say.

2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 5

 

I’m going to be honest…I wasn’t sure if we were even going to continue these picks. I was so disgusted by all of the controversy surrounding football last weekend that my fandom took a serious hit. I even gave thoughtful consideration to leaving all of my fantasy leagues, though I ultimately decided that course of action would be disrespectful to fellow team owners. I have so many thoughts & opinions about the whole mess, but I don’t know if I’ll ever express them in this space or anywhere else. Why add to the strife?? I spent 2 days being depressed & angry about what our country has become, and quite frankly I’m tired of being miserable. It’s not worth the price. No one cares what I think anyway. I still don’t know what I’ll be doing Sunday afternoon, but for now we’ll forge ahead with our picks as usual.

My Season:        13-11

Z’s Season:        12-11

 

 

 

 

 

USC (-3.5)           at      Washington State

The Trojans were my pre-season #1 team, and I even said “if any big time powerhouse has a legit chance to go undefeated this is the one”. So I’ll admit I was sweating out that overtime thriller versus Texas. Fortunately Southern Cal pulled off a victory, so I still have an opportunity to look like a genius. The Cougars are also 4-0, and it took them three OTs to get past Boise St. a few weeks ago, so like their opponents they’re no stranger to exciting finishes. This is a Friday night contest, which mean I’ll be at work when it kicks off at 10:30pm and if it’s an average-slow night I will be able to catch most of the action on TV so I’m pretty psyched about that. I just think USC is the better team here. It might be competitive & watchable, but we’ll see the cream rise in the 4th quarter. Zach, on the other hand, foresees some key mistakes by USC leading to their demise in a mildly surprising upset.

My Pick:     USC

Z’s Pick:     Washington St.

 

 

 

Baylor                 at      Kansas State (-17)

The 0-4 Bears darn near pulled off a shocker last weekend versus the Oklahoma Sooners, but…well…they didn’t. Close doesn’t count (except in Vegas). Meanwhile, the 2-1 Wildcats could only score seven points last week in a loss to Vanderbilt. I am intrigued by the points. K-St. has the home field and is clearly the better team, plus there might be a train of thought that Baylor…ummmm…shot their wad…against the Sooners. The Vibes are telling me that this’ll be right on the line, but I’m going to take a chance that Baylor only loses by 14 or 15 points. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Baylor

Z’s Pick:     Baylor

 

 

 

Clemson (-7)      at      Virginia Tech

I seriously thought that Clemson would fall outside the Top 10 this season. That still may happen, but thus far they’ve looked every bit the championship team in winning their first four games. Tech ain’t bad either, though outside of the season opener against my WV Mountaineers they haven’t played anyone notable. This game is in Blacksburg but I don’t think it makes that much of a difference. I’m sure it’ll be a fun contest, but the touchdown point spread isn’t going to scare anybody into taking the Hokies. Conversely, Zach thinks the always formidable Hokie defense will give Clemson fits and that their young quarterback will rise to the occasion.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Virginia Tech

 

 

 

Tennessee (-1.5)        at      Houston

The Titans currently sit atop the AFC South while the Texans occupy the cellar, but we’re only three games into the season so it’s way too early to really know much. I have been impressed with Houston rookie QB Deshaun Watson and am considering starting him in my dynasty league. I can’t really get a good read on either of these teams so this game could go either way. Tennessee is probably the more complete team right now, but I’m going to put my faith in Watson putting up some big numbers and pulling off the upset. Zach thinks Tennessee is simply better and will prove it.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Tennessee

 

 

 

Philadelphia      at      LA Chargers (-1.5)

The Chargers are 0-3 but have been competitive in all three games (their rookie kicker has failed them twice with the game on the line). Theoretically they shouldn’t be favored even with the home field, but that’s an indicator that no one is that impressed with the 2-1 Eagles. I’m really not sure where to go with this one, but I happen to like Philly’s young QB Carson Wentz, who I believe will grow into one of the league’s better signal callers as the team is built around him. They’re probably not going to be a playoff contender for another year or two, but I think the Eagles win this game. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Philadelphia

Z’s Pick:     Philadelphia

2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 4

I know what you’re thinking…”He’s running late again”. But you’re wrong, because we were smart enough not to include Thursday games this week so I’ve got plenty of time to wow y’all with my brilliance. Or maybe it’d be more accurate to say that there weren’t any early games worthy of our attention. Actually both the college & NFL schedule is surprisingly unappealing this week, and I do my best not to bore The Manoverse with games involving the same teams over & over. At any rate, both Zach & I were both slightly above average in our last outing. I was 4-3, while Zach went 4-2. Looking back at my pre-season NCAA poll I think I may have underestimated Clemson’s ability to reload & the skill of Oklahoma’s new head coach, while I had far too much faith in Ohio St. & Florida St. I still stand by my thoughts on USC, Penn St., & Alabama.

My Season:        11-8

Z’s Season:        11-7

 

 

 

 

 

Texas A&M (-2.5)       vs.    Arkansas

Aggies’ head coach Kevin Sumlin seems like he might be on the verge of being fired even though his team comes into this game 2-1. Sometimes being backed into a corner brings out the best in people, and as long as A&M keeps winning Sumlin will stay employed. That’s going to be easier said than done though. The Razorbacks are 1-1 but the victory was against a 1-AA school and the loss was a three TD beatdown by TCU. In other words, Arkansas hasn’t indicated that it has any discernible talent to win an actual game thus far. This is a neutral site contest being played at The Palace in Dallas (the go to place for neutral site games it seems), and The Vibes and telling me that Sumlin will survive to fight another day. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Texas A&M

Z’s Pick:     Texas A&M

 

 

 

TCU                     at      Oklahoma State (-11.5)

Speaking of the Horned Frogs, they enter this game 3-0 and are showing signs of being back to their 2014 & 15 glory after finishing last season at 6-7. The Cowboys were #3 in my pre-season poll and have gotten off to a fast 3-0 start while barely breaking a sweat. I’m confident that Ok. St. will win the game, although I must admit that the points scare me just a bit. This is one of those “no guts no glory” moments, and I’m going to go for the gusto. Zach has no issues with the spread and is predicting a blowout win for the favorites.

My Pick:     Oklahoma St.

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma St.

 

 

UCLA                  at      Stanford (-7.5)

I am so glad a) that I have a job that allows me to watch football while I’m there Saturday nights, & b) that this game is on ESPN so I’ll be able to see it. The 2-1 Bruins have had quite the eventful season thus far, beating Texas A&M on a last second touchdown pass and suffering a shocking loss to Memphis after being unable to score in the last 10 minutes of the game. Stanford is an unimpressive 1-2, though I am guessing they’re better than the record shows. I’m a little surprised about the points, as home field is usually worth about a field goal, not slightly more than a touchdown. Both of these teams were in the lower echelon of my pre-season poll, but in this particular game I have more faith in QB Josh Rosen, who I still believe will be in the Heisman conversation at the end of the year. Zach thinks it’ll be close but likes UCLA to pull ahead in the 4th quarter.

My Pick:     UCLA

Z’s Pick:     UCLA

 

 

Cleveland (-1)    at      Indianapolis

Hey, I can’t just focus on the good NFL teams!! I feel sorry for the Colts because injuries are something that no one can predict or control, and being without QB Andrew Luck leaves Indy dead in the water, as their 0-2 record clearly indicates. The Factory of Sadness known as the Browns are 0-2 as well, but they are actually favored on the road in this game, which makes me wonder exactly what the oddsmakers know. I have no idea what to think to be honest, but as a Steelers fan I cannot bring myself to cheer for Cleveland. Zach, on the other hand, is surprisingly enthusiastic about this game and thinks Cleveland is headed in the right direction.

My Pick:     Indianapolis

Z’s Pick:     Cleveland

 

 

Denver (-3)                   at      Buffalo

I told you the Broncos would beat the Dallas Cowboys!! QB Trevor Siemian & RB CJ Anderson have looked pretty decent in leading their team to a 2-0 record. The defense might not be quite as intimidating as they’ve been in recent years, but they’re still getting the job done. Conversely, the Bills are 1-1 and battling injuries. I’ve never been convinced that Tyrod Taylor is a good NFL quarterback, and I think Denver will have him for lunch. Zach humbly admits that the Broncos have proven him wrong and he now believes they might be a serious Super Bowl contender.

My Pick:     Denver

Z’s Pick:     Denver

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2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 3

Hey, it only took me ‘til Week 3 to be running woefully late and forced to do a quick & dirty version of these picks lacking my usual charm & wit. We’ve got to stop choosing Thursday games. Anyway, last week was a decidedly mixed bag. On one hand the Patriots lost, the Steelers won, Zach was thrilled that Ohio St. got beat, & my fantasy dynasty team kicked ass. Conversely, we didn’t do so good with these picks. Penn St. won big…but not big enough. Oregon & Clemson both look to be the real deal. And I have no idea what has happened to the Seattle Seahawks. I was an abysmal 3-4, while Zach fared a little better at 4-3. I’m feeling frisky so we’re doing bonus picks again this week. Buckle up kids!!

My Season:        7-5

Z’s Season:        7-5

 

 

 

 

 

Notre Dame (-13.5)     at      Boston College

The Irish are 1-1 after a competitive loss to Georgia last weekend, while the Eagles are also 1-1 coming off of a beatdown by Wake Forest. I have no doubt Notre Dame will win the game, but I think it’ll be closer that two TDS. Conversely, Zach believes Notre Dame will win easily.

My Pick:     Boston College

Z’s Pick:     Notre Dame

 

 

 

Clemson (-3)      at      Louisville

Both teams come into this showdown 2-0. The Cardinals have two solid wins over decent teams, but I still think they’re overrated. Quarterback Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy last year and is undoubtedly a dynamic player, but football is a team game and I don’t think Louisville measures up in other key areas. Clemson won the national championship last season and, despite the loss of QB Deshaun Watson & other important contributors to the NFL, look like they might be even better now. They’re defense is fierce. I’m shocked that the spread is only three points even though the game is being played in Louisville. I’m predicting that Clemson will easily win by double digits. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Clemson

Z’s Pick:     Clemson

 

 

 

Tennessee                  at      Florida (-5.5)

The Volunteers are 2-0, while Florida’s game was cancelled last weekend due to Hurricane Irma. They had previously opened the season with a loss to Michigan. The Gators get the home field bump from the folks in Vegas, but The Vibes are telling me that Tennessee might just go into The Swamp and pull off an upset. Zach was so excited about…something, I don’t know…that he forgot to pick this game.

My Pick:     Tennessee

Z’s Pick:     n/a

 

 

 

Texas                  at      USC (-15.5)

So many of us…myself included…thought that the Longhorns might be on the way back to respectability. Not only did former coach Charlie Strong allegedly recruit well (and may have been run out of town a bit prematurely), but new coach Tom Herman has brought a renewed level of enthusiasm. Unfortunately this new era got off to a rocky start with a loss to Maryland, and beating up on San Jose St. last week doesn’t prove anything. Conversely, the Trojans were my pre-season #1 team and are 2-0 out of the gate. The points are a little much for my tastes, but I’m going to roll the dice and live on the wild side. Zach foresees a USC blowout.

My Pick:     Southern Cal

Z’s Pick:     Southern Cal

 

 

Houston             at      Cincinnati (-3.5)

The Tom Savage Era is apparently already over, as the Texans will start rookie QB Deshaun Watson this week. It’s a bold move and I like it. The Bengals were shutout by the Baltimore Ravens to begin their season, so both teams in this matchup are looking for a reboot. I really like Watson, and I think Houston’s defense is better than they appeared to be last week. Cincinnati has Andy Dalton behind center, and that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Houston

Z’s Pick:     Houston

 

 

 

Chicago             at      Tampa Bay (-6.5)

The Bears looked better than I expected in a season opening loss to Atlanta. Tampa’s season opener was postponed due to Hurricane Irma so this will be our first look at them. The Bucs are probably the better team right now, so I’m just gonna go with the flow. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Tampa Bay

Z’s Pick:     Tampa Bay

 

 

 

Dallas (-2.5)       at      Denver

It looks like RB Zeke Elliott might get to play the entire season afterall, so the Cowboys are in much better shape than I anticipated at this point. They had no problems beating the NY Giants last week. Denver lived on the edge in a season opening victory over the LA Chargers, surviving a last second failed field goal that would have tied the game. Every indicator points to a comfortable Dallas win, but…but…I don’t know…I’m not buying it. The Vibes are telling me that the Broncos have a real chance to win. Zach doesn’t trust Denver’s quarterback situation and is making the smart pick.

My Pick:     Denver

Z’s Pick:     Dallas

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2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…..Week 2

I’m going to do something that, to my recollection, I’ve never done since beginning these picks six years ago. Last week both Zach & I picked UCLA to beat Texas A&M, which they did. However, the point spread was 3 and the Bruins won by only one point on a last second touchdown after completing a four TD 4th quarter comeback. It was such an epic, thrilling victory that I’m going to give both of us the win as well. Hey…my game, my rules. So what that means is that in the opening week of the season I was 4-1, while Zach was 3-2. Florida St. let me down, as they were manhandled by Alabama, while Zach should’ve had more faith in his Michigan Wolverines. This week the NFL adds a layer of intrigue to our little contest, and y’all know what that means…bonus picks!! Enjoy the games, and a special shout out to my Texas peeps recovering from Hurricane Harvey & Florida friends preparing for Hurricane Irma. We’re praying for you and know that you’ll be okay in the long run.

 

 

 

 

Pitt                       at                Penn State (-21.5)

The Nittany Lions were #2 in my pre-season rankings, and did nothing to dissuade me from that assessment in their season opening beatdown of Akron. Conversely, the Panthers had a rough second half and had to go to overtime to beat Youngstown St. Despite it being an in-state rivalry I don’t think this will be much of a game. Penn St. RB Saquon Barkley might run for 200 yards & 4 TDs unless they sit him the entire second half. Zach concurs.

My Pick:     Penn St.

Z’s Pick:     Penn St.

 

 

Nebraska           at      Oregon (-13.5)
The Cornhuskers only beat Arkansas St. by 7 points last week, which isn’t a good sign. Meanwhile, the Ducks kicked the snot out of Southern Utah, just as they should have. Was last season’s 4-8 atrocity just an anomaly for what has been a successful Oregon program in the past decade?? It’s too early to say for sure, but there is that distinct possibility. I tend to believe that Oregon is better than they showed in 2016, but won’t rely on last week’s victory as any kind of accurate barometer. I also think last week may have served as a wakeup call for Nebraska. This feels like it will be a competitive & entertaining game. I’m not sure who will win, but whoever comes out on top will likely do so by less than double digits. Zach is a little nervous about the spread but likes Oregon’s high powered offense.

My Pick:     Nebraska

Z’s Pick:     Oregon

 

 

 

Auburn               at      Clemson (-5.5)

Oooohhhh this is a good one, and it’s probably flying a little under the radar. Auburn easily defeated Georgia Southern last week, which tells us nothing. Defending national champions Clemson beat up on Kent St., and that doesn’t mean anything either. So now that both teams have the kinks worked out it’s time to play a real game. In my pre-season rankings I predicted that Clemson would “taste bitter defeat at the hands of archrival Florida St., and will probably be upset in atleast one other game.” That Florida St. thing is looking a lot more doubtful now, but I think Auburn could very well be the “one other game”. Conversely, Zach doesn’t believe Clemson will have any problems and thinks they’ll win by two TDs.

My Pick:     Auburn

Z’s Pick:     Clemson

 

 

Oklahoma                    at      Ohio State (-7.5)

This is being advertised as the centerpiece game of the schedule for Week 2, but I’m not so sure. The Buckeyes got off to a slow start before defeating Indiana a week ago, while Oklahoma easily beat UTEP. I sincerely believe Ohio St. is the superior team, and despite having Heisman candidate Baker Mayfield at quarterback I can’t get past the idea that Sooners’ head coach Lincoln Riley is new to all of this. Especially since the game is being played at The Horseshoe in Columbus I don’t think it’ll even be all that close. Zach has an irrational hatred for Ohio St. and thinks they are overrated.

My Pick:     Ohio St.

Z’s Pick:     Oklahoma

 

 

Kansas City       at      New England (-9)

The NFL is back and this is the big Thursday night opener. Everyone is so in love with the Patriots that it’d be hilarious if they screwed the pooch right out of the gate. The Chiefs are coming off of a successful 12-4 season, but I think they’ll fall back just a bit this year and be in a dog fight for a playoff spot. New England, in contrast to the sickening adulation heaped on them by the talking heads, won’t go undefeated, but they’ll probably win this game. However, can they cover the spread?? I think it is quite possible that the game is a little closer than nine points. Zach is sticking with the party line and predicting a 10 point Pats victory.

My Pick:     Kansas City

Z’s Pick:     New England

 

 

Oakland             at      Tennessee (-2.5)

Both of these teams are early favorites to win their respective divisions, with good reason…they are clubs on the rise behind the leadership of young & talented quarterbacks. I like Marcus Mariota and Derek Carr, though Carr is probably further ahead in his development. Both running games should be solid, and there are ample weapons for each signal caller to throw the ball to, with Tennessee’s offensive line being just a little more talented. The difference in this game will likely be defense, with Oakland’s pass rushing tandem of Khalil Mack & Bruce Irvin being a real headache for opposing offenses, while Tennessee linebacker Brian Orakpo leads the charge surrounded by a lot of unproven talent. The Titans get the slight home field bump here, but, while I think they’ll be a playoff team, I’m not buying that they’ll win this game. Zach agrees.

My Pick:     Oakland

Z’s Pick:     Oakland

 

 

Seattle                at                Green Bay (-3.5)

This is an NFC title caliber matchup in Week 1. It’s going to be odd seeing RB Eddie Lacy in a Seahawks’ uniform and lining up against his former team, but I think he’ll do well. As a matter of fact, I have no doubt that both offenses will put on a show, so defense will be the deciding factor. On paper that advantage goes to Seattle. Zach thinks that the home field is a huge advantage for Green Bay and is looking for QB Aaron Rodgers to have a big day.

My Pick:     Seattle

Z’s Pick:     Green Bay

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2017 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 1

We’re baaaaaaccccckkkk. I sincerely hope The Manoverse considers that a good thing, although I know there are those that don’t particularly enjoy sports related topics. Be patient. Y’all know that The Manofesto is a cornucopia where we discuss all kinds of stuff, and I will do my best to not focus solely on football for the next five months. This will be my 6th season making these picks, while my nephew Zach joins me for the fifth time. I finished 2016 with a record of 54-49 (a 52% winning percentage), while Zach struggled a bit and finished at 38-65 (37%). As always Week 1 is all about college football since the NFL hasn’t began its season just yet. Fortunately, because of the College Football Playoff, teams are bulking up their schedules with better early season non-conference games, and we fans are the beneficiaries. There are a couple of monster matchups on the opening weekend, so it wasn’t difficult to choose which games to pick. Let me remind you that Zach & I do not have any money riding on these games and I do not encourage gambling, but if that is an activity that frosts your cupcake and you have the disposable income while still paying your bills & feeding your family then go right ahead and do what you enjoy. Just don’t put too much stock in what you read here…we’re not very good at this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

BYU           vs.    LSU (-12.5)

Hurricane Harvey has forced this “neutral site” game, originally to be played in Houston, TX, to the New Orleans Superdome, meaning that it’s not so neutral anymore. I don’t think it makes much of a difference though. The Cougars are coming off of a solid 8-4 season and have already played a game last weekend, beating 1-AA Portland St. in unimpressive fashion. Equaling 2016’s record might be the best BYU can aspire to. The Bayou Bengals also finished last year at 8-4 in a season in which they fired their longtime head coach. RB Leonard Fournette has moved on to the NFL, which isn’t necessarily disastrous for LSU because honestly, he rarely lived up to the hype in my opinion. They probably aren’t winning their conference or even their division, but the boys from Baton Rouge shouldn’t have any problems winning this game. Zach thinks it’ll be a blowout.

My Pick:     LSU

Z’s Pick:     LSU

 

 

 

California           at      North Carolina (-12.5)

I’d have to do research to know for sure (and that ain’t happening), but it seems like a rare occurrence that the Pac 12 and ACC meet up during the regular season. The Golden Bears were an atrocious 5-7 last year, while the Tar Heels were 8-5. QB Mitch Trubisky & WR Ryan Switzer have both left Chapel Hill behind for the NFL, and that concerns me a little, especially for the first game of the season. I’m not bold enough to predict an outright upset, but the points feel like a bit much to me. Zach doesn’t foresee a blowout, but believes Carolina will win by a comfortable enough margin.

My Pick:     California

Z’s Pick:     UNC

 

 

 

Texas A&M        at      UCLA (-3)

After losing starting QB Josh Rosen to a shoulder injury in 2016 the Bruins nosedived to a 4-8 record, but Rosen is back and I expect him to be a first round NFL Draft pick next spring. The Aggies started off strong last season but struggled in the second half, limping to an 8-5 finish. They are without the services of defensive end Myles Garrett, who was chosen #1 overall by the Cleveland Browns. UCLA gets just a slight home field bump from the oddsmakers, but I don’t believe it’ll be that close. Zach likes A&M well enough but can’t overlook the home field advantage.

My Pick:     UCLA

Z’s Pick:     UCLA

 

 

 

Michigan (-5)     vs.    Florida

Michigan might be getting more love and national title hype if a) they didn’t have to replace ¾ of last season’s starters, and b) they didn’t play in the same conference as Ohio St. & Penn St. I expect a slight dropoff for the Wolverines from last year’s 10-3 record, though I still consider them a Top 25 team. Florida plays in the SEC, which might not be as good as in year’s past, but it’s still a pretty tough road. The Gators were 9-4 in 2016 and would probably be more than satisfied to equal that mark this season. This is a neutral site game being played at The Palace in Dallas, which atleast will make it fun to watch on TV. I think the oddsmakers have nailed this one. It’ll be competitive, but Michigan will win by a touchdown. Zach is a huge Michigan fan, but is shocking the world by predicting an upset.

My Pick:     Michigan

Z’s Pick:     Florida

 

 

 

Florida State      vs.    Alabama (-7.5)

Wow, what a huge game on the opening weekend!! Kudos to both teams. Alabama has won four national championships since 2010 and lost last season’s title game to Clemson on a touchdown pass in the final seconds. The Seminoles haven’t won a national title since 2013 but are always in the conversation. The winner of this game will emerge as the undisputed #1 team in the land, although the loser will still have a decent chance to make the playoff. It’s another neutral site game, this time emanating from the brand spankin’ new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This is a battle of wits between Nick Saban and Jimbo Fisher. I am expecting a low scoring, smashmouth defensive struggle, with a couple of big plays making the difference. I’m not brave enough to predict the outright upset, but I do think the game will be decided by less than a touchdown. Zach loves Saban and thinks the Tide will roll by two TDs.

My Pick:     Florida St.

Z’s Pick:     Alabama

2017 NFL Preview & Prognostications

In light of all the absurdity happening in the world these days it’s good to know that it won’t be long until we can spend hours upon hours every weekend curled up on the couch watching football and forgetting about life for awhile. Football is a uniter, not a divider. Oh sure everyone has their favorite teams & players and fans will good-naturedly debate each other over such issues, but at the end of the day football fans on opposite ends of even the most longstanding rivalries usually have no problem sitting down with a cold beverage and some tasty snacks to watch the game together. There is so much common ground. Raider Nation, Cheeseheads, & Philly Boo Birds can all agree on certain things…the Browns suck, Tom Brady is a douche canoe, RedZone rocks, and for the love of God & all that’s holy will some lowly team PLEASE give Jon Gruden a coaching job and get him off our TVs. So in preparation for that upcoming glorious day please sit back, relax, & look into the gridiron crystal ball to see what might be in store for the NFL over the next few months. Enjoy.

 

 

 

 

AFC

 

East

New England Patriots

(14-2) 13-3

Miami Dolphins

(10-6) 8-8

Buffalo Bills

(7-9) 5-11

New York Jets

(5-11) 3-13

Sports media has spent the offseason fellatiating the Patriots even more than usual, including shoving Tom Brady’s 40th birthday down our throats like it was some sort of religious holiday. Look, I’m not an unreasonable man. Despite repeated instances of cheating their way to success I will begrudgingly concede that any team that wins five Super Bowls in 15 years deserves kudos, but numerous outlets predicting an undefeated season is just silly. This is a weak division that New England will win easily, but I think they’ll stumble a few times along the way. The loss of QB Ryan Tannehill to injury and the subsequent signing of the suddenly unretired Jay Cutler doesn’t move the meter either way for the Dolphins in my opinion. They might be in the wildcard conversation early on but aren’t a threat to be taken seriously. The Jets are going to get worse before they get better, and the Bills are just treading water, with new head coach Sean McDermott being the latest guy that’ll lead the team nowhere before getting canned in a couple of years.

 

 

West

Oakland Raiders

(12-4) 13-3

Kansas City Chiefs

(12-4) 9-7

Denver Broncos

(9-7) 8-8

Los Angeles Chargers

(5-11) 7-9

The Raiders and Chiefs were neck & neck last season, but I think this is a year in which the future Vegas franchise establishes dominance while Kansas City takes a step backward. I really like Oakland QB Derek Carr, and with RB Marshawn Lynch coming out of retirement, WR Cordarrelle Patterson coming over from Minnesota looking for a fresh start, & Amari Cooper ready to emerge as one of the league’s premier receivers the offense will be difficult to stop. Khalil Mack & Bruce Irvin are a formidable pass rushing duo. The Chiefs feel like they’re in a transitional phase, with first round pick Patrick Mahomes biding his time until QB Alex Smith goes away, career backup Spencer Ware & third round pick Kareem Hunt vying to replace departed RB Jamaal Charles, and talented receivers Tyreek Hill & Chris Conley stepping up in the absence of the departed Jeremy Maclin. The defense will have to be the foundation for KC. Whether Trevor Semien or Paxton Lynch wins the quarterback battle in Denver their defense will also be the key to success. The Chargers have moved from San Diego to Los Angeles and will play in a stadium about the size of my apartment. I feel bad for QB Philip Rivers because I’m sure this isn’t how he’d prefer to see his career wind down. Anthony Lynn is an unproven head coach, although offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt & defensive coordinator Gus Bradley are former head coaches themselves. First round pick Mike Williams, a receiver out of Clemson, and second rounder Forrest Lamp, an offensive lineman from Western Kentucky, have already suffered injuries in training camp (Lamp is out for the season, Williams should return at some point), which isn’t a good omen.

 

 

North

Pittsburgh Steelers

(11-5) 10-6

Cincinnati Bengals

(6-9-1) 9-7

Baltimore Ravens

(8-8) 8-8

Cleveland Browns

(1-15) 3-13

I am normally very cautious when it comes to having high expectations for my Steelers, but I can’t deny the fact that they should clearly be the best team in the division. I’m sure everyone in Pittsburgh would deny it, but the truth is that the AFC North isn’t their true competition. The fact is that the only thing on anyone’s mind is overcoming the Patriots and getting to the Super Bowl. Having said that, this division is always a grind so I don’t expect the Steelers to run away with the crown. It’ll be a season long slog. I think the Bengals will be better than most expect, with AJ Green & first round pick John Ross forming an intimidating receiving duo and the much maligned Joe Mixon adding a dimension to the running game. Baltimore feels like they’re spinning their wheels. Perhaps they should crowd source their fans for solutions. The Browns are the Browns…a perpetual Factory of Sadness where talented players waste away valuable years of their career. They may show a small improvement this year, but really…who cares??

 

 

South

Tennessee Titans

(9-7) 11-5

Houston Texans

(9-7) 8-8

Indianapolis Colts

(8-8) 7-9

Jacksonville Jaguars

(3-13) 6-10

Much like the West, in which two teams that were even as they crossed the finish line last season seem to be headed on divergent paths, so it goes in the South, with Tennessee taking a leap forward and the Texans seeing their momentum stopped for now. I really like Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota, and he’s got some weapons…RBs DeMarco Murray & Derrick Henry, TE Jace Amaro, and WRs Eric Decker & first round pick Corey Davis. The offensive line looks good too. I’m not quite sure about their defense though. Houston will once again rely heavily on their stout defense while they sort out the quarterback situation. Tom Savage will probably begin the season as the starter, but I really like Deshaun Watson and think he’ll be one of the league’s best QBs in a couple of years. Colts’ signal caller Andrew Luck was supposed to be the next Peyton Manning, but things don’t seem to be working out that way, and I don’t expect Indy to improve. I had been under the impression in recent years that the Jags were up n’ comers, but they’ve gone backward. Unlike most people I’m not that psyched about first round pick Leonard Fournette, and QB Blake Bortles inspires zero confidence.

 

 

 

Playoff Teams:   New England, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Kansas City, Cincinnati

AFC Championship:    New England vs. Pittsburgh

 

  

 

NFC

 

East

New York Giants

(11-5) 11-5

Dallas Cowboys

(13-3) 10-6

Washington Redskins

(8-7-1) 8-8

Philadelphia Eagles

(7-9) 5-11

The suspension of RB Zeke Elliott isn’t a good beginning for the Cowboys. Whether he’s out six games or has the punishment reduced a bit I think Dallas loses atleast a couple contests that they otherwise may have won. That opens the door for the Giants, who enter season two of the Ben McAdoo era having done rather well last year and now switch out receiver Victor Cruz (now with the Bears) for Brandon Marshall (formerly of the Jets) & add first round pick Evan Engram at tight end. This is a tough division, but New York has to be the heavy favorite. The Redskins have spent the offseason in a pissing contest with quarterback Kirk Cousins, but also added free agent receiver Terrelle Pryor, defensive end & first round draft pick Jonathan Allen, and fourth round RB Samaje Perine. Still though, they feel like a team on the negative side of transformation until the likely departure of Cousins and the drafting of a new quarterback next year. I love Eagles’ QB Carson Wentz, but Philly is a team with too many moving parts & youngsters to really gel into anything good at this point. Maybe next year.

 

 

West

Seattle Seahawks

(10-5-1) 12-4

Arizona Cardinals

(7-8-1) 8-8

Los Angeles Rams

(4-12) 6-10

San Francisco 49ers

(2-14) 5-11

Seattle had, by their standards, a pretty mediocre season in 2016, lowlighted by a surprising loss to the lowly Rams in week two. However, they did make the playoffs before being beaten by the Atlanta Falcons. RB Eddie Lacy has moved to the northwest from Green Bay, and I expect him to be in shape & a significant contributor. The Cardinals are looking to rebound from a tough year and get back to the team they were in 2015 when they played in the NFC title game. It’s all about QB Carson Palmer. At 37 years old can he summon up one last great season, or will the oft injured signal caller just kind of fade away?? The Niners & Rams keep adding pieces in free agency & thru the draft, but it doesn’t seem like either team is closer to turning things around. This is the Seahawks’ division to lose, and I don’t think it’ll even be competitive.

 

 

North

Green Bay Packers

(10-6) 12-4

Minnesota Vikings

(8-8) 9-7

Chicago Bears

(3-13) 6-10

Detroit Lions

(9-7) 5-11

Much like Seattle the Packers just felt a bit off last season, even though they made it to the NFC title game. I think there was a lot of drama in the personal life of QB Aaron Rodgers that affected him negatively, though we’ll never really know for sure. At any rate, keep an eye on the backfield, where converted receiver Ty Montgomery will get some stiff competition from hardnosed runner Jamaal Williams, a 4th round draft choice from BYU. Otherwise I assume Rodgers will pass the ball a lot to an array of talented receivers and the defense will be overlooked & underrated. In Minnesota Adrian Peterson has taken his child beating ways down south to The Big Easy and it’ll be up to former Raider Latavius Murray and/or rookie RB Dalvin Cook to replace him. The receiving corps is…okay…but I expect QB Sam Bradford to be handing the ball off much of the time. Good ol’ smashmouth football for the Vikings. The defense will be alright, but might have to be better than that in some low scoring slugfests. The Bears will allegedly try to get thru the season with QBs Mike Glennon & Mark Sanchez, with first round pick Mitch Trubisky essentially redshirting his rookie season to learn the ropes. It’s a bold strategy…let’s see if it pays off for them (or even if they stick to that plan). There are some talented offensive weapons in Chicago…receivers Kevin White, Markus Wheaton, Victor Cruz, Kendall Wright, & Reuben Randle, RB Jordan Howard, rookie tight end & 2nd round draft pick Adam Shaheen…but none of that matters if the quarterback is subpar. The defense in the Windy City has potential but is, on paper, underwhelming. I am predicting that the Lions take a big step backward after a career year from QB Matthew Stafford in 2016. Their defense has been upgraded, but I don’t think Stafford can repeat last season’s success, and I’m not all that enamored with the weapons he has to work with. The Packers will win the North, and it won’t be close.

 

 

South

Atlanta Falcons

(11-5) 10-6

Carolina Panthers

(6-10) 10-6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(9-7) 10-6

New Orleans Saints

(7-9) 9-7

All anyone will remember about the Falcons’ 2016 season is their epic collapse in the Super Bowl, which is a shame, but also can be used as motivation. They’ll be almost as good this year, but other teams will step up to compete. The Panthers’ putrid season was probably an anomaly, and I expect them to flip the script this year behind new offensive weapon Christian McCaffrey, who’ll line up in the backfield but can be a receiver as well. I like Tampa and believe we’ll see the continued maturation of QB Jameis Winston, especially since he now has a really good tight end in first round pick OJ Howard and a talented group of receivers, including free agent signee DeSean Jackson. The Bucs will be in the playoff hunt. I am rather sentimental, so I’d like to see QB Drew Brees lead the Saints back to the playoffs as he winds down his brilliant career, but I don’t think it’s going to happen. Signing free agent RB Adrian Peterson won’t be a difference maker since he’s way past his prime. Actually it’ll probably be Mark Ingram & third round choice Alvin Kamara getting most of the work in the backfield by the mid-point of the season.

 

 

 

Playoff Teams:   NY Giants, Green Bay, Seattle, Atlanta, Carolina, Tampa Bay

NFC Championship:   NY Giants vs. Green Bay

 

 

 

Pittsburgh Steelers      41  

Green Bay Packers 38

 

 

Top 5 Picks in 2018 Draft:

1       New York Jets

2       Cleveland Browns

3       Philadelphia Eagles

4       San Francisco 49ers

5       Detroit Lions

2017 College Football Pre-Season Top 25

With the exception of the Thanksgiving-Christmas corridor this might be my favorite time of year. Anticipation is at its zenith and the possibilities are endless. Just looking at the schedules has me amped up, especially for two or three weekends when the lineup looks to be especially loaded. Whenever I begin this process I almost always get The Vibes, and the word that keeps popping into my head at the moment is parity. It is unlikely that any team gets thru their season unbeaten, and it’s entirely possible that a team with 2 or 3 losses sneaks into the playoff. Saturdays are going to be as glorious as usual this autumn, if only I can stay awake to watch the games. 16 of the 25 teams I have ranked here had 10 or more victories last season, and a few more won 9 games. Who will shockingly fall off the map?? Who will do a complete turnaround and climb out of the abyss of losing seasons into the Top 25?? Only time will tell, and what follows represents my best guess based solely on minimal research & decades as a dedicated fan, not any sort of insider knowledge. Perhaps we’ll look back in a few months and laugh at my foolishness, or maybe…just maybe…I will prove my worth as a bona fide guru. Who knows??

 

 

 

 

 

1          USC

Last Season:             10-3

Key Games:              9/9 vs. Stanford, 10/21 at Notre Dame, 11/18 vs. UCLA

Honestly, the schedule doesn’t look all that daunting for a top tier team, and with Heisman Trophy contender Sam Darnold behind center I don’t think we’ll see the Trojans go backward. Clay Helton is firmly entrenched as the head coach, providing consistency that the program has been lacking in recent years. If any big time powerhouse has a legit chance to go undefeated this is the one, and at the very least anything short of a playoff appearance will be a huge disappointment.

 

 

2          Penn State

Last Season:             11-3

Key Games:              10/21 vs. Michigan, 10/28 at Ohio St.

Last season’s Rose Bowl was probably the best post-season game other than the national championship. USC bested the Nittany Lions 52-49 on a last second field goal, and in many people’s minds it was a harbinger of fantastic things to come for both teams. The Sandusky/Paterno kerfuffle seems to be in the rear view mirror for Penn St., and while we could engage in endless sociopolitical commentary about all of that there is no doubt that moving past the fallout is good for the football program. There are two Heisman contenders in Happy Valley…QB Trace McSorely & RB Saquon Barkley…and, while I’m no expert, I have to believe that bodes well for the team’s chances of success. They’ll have to face the Buckeyes in Columbus, but Michigan will be a home game. If the Lions can split those two huge games I think they just might be national title contenders.

 

 

3          Oklahoma State

Last Season:             10-3

Key Games:              10/21 at Texas, 11/4 vs. Oklahoma

Surprise!! While the other team in Oklahoma usually gets all of the attention (and still will this year) the Cowboys have been pretty successful, racking up 10 or more wins in five of the past seven seasons. QB Mason Rudolph returns for his senior season, and it feels like he may be flying under the radar just like his team. That’s probably fine with the folks in Stillwater. Don’t be surprised if this is the team that comes out on the positive end of Bedlam, and I think they might even have an outside shot at perfection.

 

 

4          Florida State

Last Season:             10-3   

Key Games:              9/2 vs. Alabama, 9/16 vs. Miami (FL), 11/11 at Clemson

The season opener against Alabama will obviously set a tone for the season. That game is a neutral site contest in Atlanta and is the highlight of college football’s first weekend. A win would set the Seminoles on a course for a playoff appearance, but I don’t think a loss would be fatal. They’re still the favorites to win the ACC.

 

 

5          Ohio State

Last Season:             11-2

Key Games:              9/9 vs. Oklahoma, 10/28 vs. Penn St., 11/25 at Michigan

The Buckeyes still have JT Barrett behind center, and that gives them an immediate advantage. They did lose seven players to the NFL, but that’s nothing to an elite program. The second weekend of games will be highlighted by Ohio St. against Oklahoma, but it’s in Columbus and, while the talking heads will do their best to pump up the hype machine, I really don’t think it’ll be much of a contest. Penn St. will visit Columbus right before Halloween & a showdown in The Big House wraps up the regular season, and it is in one of these games that I expect Ohio St.’s playoff dreams to be dashed.

 

 

6          Alabama

Last Season:             14-1

Key Games:              9/2 vs. Florida St., 11/4 vs. LSU, 11/25 at Auburn

I’m a non-conformist so I rarely do what everybody else does…rank ‘Bama #1. Sometimes I’m right, sometimes I’m wrong. They may win or they may lose the season opener against Florida St., but The Voices are telling me that the true waterloo for the Tide will come in November against an archrival…either LSU or Auburn. Maybe both. A one or two loss Alabama would almost certainly still be in the playoff conversation, but I think they’ll fall short of the goal.

 

 

7          South Florida

Last Season:             11-2

Key Games:              9/15 vs. Illinois, 11/4 vs. Houston

Charlie Strong wasn’t deemed good enough to get the job done for Texas, but he’s moved on and found himself in a good situation. The American Athletic Conference doesn’t get much respect, but someone’s going to win it and the Bulls seem to be receiving all the buzz despite a coaching change that would normally be cause for apprehension. They’ll need to go undefeated to rank this high, and I don’t believe that to be an unreasonable expectation.

 

 

8          Georgia

Last Season:             8-5

Key Games:              9/9 at Notre Dame, 9/30 at Tennessee, 10/28 vs. Florida

It’s season 2 for Kirby Smart as the head coach in Athens, and I think his team will be more successful than they were last year. Obviously the SEC is extremely competitive, but if the Bulldogs can win a couple of the noted key games a Top 10 finish isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Running back Nick Chubb passed up being a likely first round NFL Draft pick to return for his senior season, a huge positive. A Georgia-Alabama conference title game could be really fun.

 

 

9          Wisconsin

Last Season:             11-3

Key Games:              10/7 at Nebraska, 11/18 vs. Michigan

I’m a little nervous about this one because the Big Ten is so tough. Can they really land three teams in the Top 10? And if so, is this the right third team?? I’ve left Nebraska, Northwestern, & Iowa out of this Top 25 altogether, but they’re always dangerous opponents. I’m betting that the Badgers get by all of them, meaning that a mid-November clash with Michigan…in Wisconsin…might decide a spot in the conference title game.

 

 

10        Auburn

Last Season:             8-5

Key Games:              9/9 at Clemson, 10/14 at LSU, 11/11 vs. Georgia, 11/25 vs. Alabama

The Tigers have been a bit off the radar the past few years since winning the national championship in 2010 and losing the title game in 2013. They are 23-16 over the past three seasons. Not bad, but not remarkable either. Exceeding mediocrity will be a tall order this season. They’ll need to pull off upsets in a couple of the games I have noted, but doing so would surely make them a solid Top 10 team.

 

 

11        Oklahoma

Last Season:             11-2

Key Games:              9/9 at Ohio St., 10/14 vs. Texas, 11/4 at Oklahoma St.

QB Baker Mayfield will get a lot of Heisman hype early in the season, but I’m just a bit uneasy about the sudden departure of head coach Bob Stoops. The Sooners will have superior talent on the field as they always do, and all indications are that new coach Lincoln Riley is a bright young mind who probably would’ve been a head coach somewhere sooner rather than later anyway, but I just don’t foresee a team undergoing such a coaching change contending for a national championship, especially with a daunting early season battle on the road in Columbus, OH. There’s also the fact that the Big 12 is expected to be as competitive this season as it’s been in awhile. Oklahoma will be a good team, but I think they’ll be on the losing end of one or two games that most wouldn’t expect them to lose.

 

 

12        Washington

Last Season:             12-2

Key Games:              9/23 at Colorado, 10/28 vs. UCLA, 11/25 vs. Washington St.

The Huskies were a playoff team last season and QB Jake Browning returns for his junior year. That’s good enough for me to take this team seriously. Barring any surprising losses it feels like Washington should be the favorite in their division to get a shot at the Pac 12 title, but I think that’s the ceiling. Any unexpected stumbles along the way could cause a rapid tumble down the rankings.

 

 

13        Louisville

Last Season:             9-4

Key Games:              9/16 vs. Clemson, 10/21 at Florida St.

Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson returns under center, and while there’s no denying that he’s a dynamic player the fact is that he’s not going to sneak up on anyone this year. Even going back to last season it seems like opponents began to figure him out since the Cardinals lost three straight to end the year, including a beatdown in the Citrus Bowl at the hands of LSU. Having said all of that, I think a 9 win season is possible. Keep an eye on the games against Clemson & Florida State. I expect both to be losses, but if they’re competitive contests it’ll go a long way toward earning Louisville respect.

 

 

14        Clemson

Last Season:             14-1

Key Games:              11/11 vs. Florida St.

Replacing a starting quarterback might be just as daunting as rebooting things under a new head coach. I am a huge fan of Deshaun Watson, who is now plying his trade in the NFL with the Houston Texans, and I don’t believe he’ll be easily forgotten (he should’ve won the Heisman Trophy last year). I have no doubt that the defending national champions will just reload at most positions, and head coach Dabo Sweeney is the real deal, but I think the Tigers will taste bitter defeat at the hands of archrival Florida St., and will probably be upset in atleast one other game.

 

 

15        Michigan

Last Season:             10-3

Key Games:              9/2 vs. Florida, 10/21 at Penn St., 11/25 vs. Ohio St.

When Jim Harbaugh was hired as the Wolverines’ head coach back in 2015 I predicted that they’d be “legitimate national championship contenders within three years”. However, faced with the task of replacing about 75% of the starting rotations on both sides of the ball I think it might be wise to dial back expectations just a bit. They have Ohio St. at The Big House in Ann Arbor, but must travel to Happy Valley to face Penn St. Another 10 win season would be phenomenal in a stacked Big Ten…anything more than that is probably wishful thinking.

 

 

16        West Virginia

Last Season:             10-3

Key Games:              9/3 vs. Virginia Tech, 10/28 vs. Oklahoma St., 11/18 vs. Texas, 11/25 at Oklahoma

Expectations are high for the Mountaineers, atleast here in West Virginia. The long awaited debut of QB Will Grier, a transfer from Florida who had to sit out last season, is imminent, and he’ll have no shortage of weapons, including RBs Kennedy McCoy & Justin Crawford and WRs Juvon Durante & KaRaun White. The X factor is the defense, which must replace the entire front line and cornerback Rasul Douglas, who has moved on to the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles. The optimism probably doesn’t spread too far outside the Mountain State, but that’s alright…we’re used to everyone underestimating us in all walks of life. West Virginia MUST beat archrival Virginia Tech in the season opener, and then pull off atleast one upset in big games against celebrated conference rivals.

 

 

17        Boise St.

Last Season:             10-3

Key Games:              10/6 at BYU, 11/11 at Colorado St.

The Broncos are what they are. They’ll win 9 or 10 games, play for the conference title, and try to surprise everyone by upsetting a team from a “power” conference in a bowl game. But wait…Boise HASN’T played for the Mountain West championship or in a bowl game that people actually watch since 2014. Can they rebound this year?? I think so.

 

 

18        Virginia Tech

Last Season:             10-4

Key Games:              9/3 vs. West Virginia, 9/30 vs. Clemson, 11/4 at Miami (FL)

In his first season as the Hokies’ head coach Justin Fuente led his team to 10 wins and spot in the conference title game. Can that success be duplicated in 2017?? Maybe. The ACC isn’t a cakewalk by any stretch, and a neutral site season opener against my WV Mountaineers won’t be an automatic win. The difference in Tech’s season will be whether they win 7/8 games or 9/10 games. Either is possible.

 

 

19        Florida

Last Season:             9-4

Key Games:              9/2 vs. Michigan, 10/7 vs. LSU, 10/28 vs. Georgia, 11/25 vs. Florida St.

It wasn’t that long ago that almost every team would open the season with a couple of easy games against cupcake opponents, the result usually being a 65-10 snoozefest that accomplished nothing except filling the coffers of the overmatched losing team. However, with the advent of the four team playoff strength of schedule has become a point of emphasis. One wouldn’t think that teams from the heralded SEC would need to concern themselves with such matters, but it looks like they’re not taking any chances. The Gators begin their season at The Palace in Dallas against Michigan. The winner will probably be vaulted into the Top 10, the loser will have to battle back. Either way Florida will have a tough road after that first game, and they’ll need to upset a couple of conference opponents to finish as a ranked team.

 

 

20        Texas

Last Season:             5-7

Key Games:              9/16 at USC, 10/14 vs. Oklahoma, 10/21 vs. Oklahoma St.

Here’s what I find interesting. IF the South Florida Bulls do as well as most are predicting in Charlie Strong’s first year as head coach there, what does it say about his ability?? And IF the Longhorns bounce back from a long stretch of mediocrity as well, does credit have to be given to new head coach Tom Herman, or will it be because Strong recruited well and the suits in Austin pulled the plug on him too soon?? It’s a conversation I’ll be looking forward to throughout the season. I don’t think Texas is going to suddenly be a threat to win 10 games or compete for the Big 12 title, but if they can pull off an upset or two, play Southern Cal tough in the opener, and ultimately win 8 games I think this spot would be well earned.

 

 

21        Stanford

Last Season:             10-3

Key Games:              9/9 at USC, 9/23 vs. UCLA, 11/10 vs. Washington, 11/25 vs. Notre Dame

Contrary to what the folks in SEC territory would have us believe I happen to think that the Big Ten & Pac 12 are the toughest football conferences in America. Stanford always seems to be in the mix near the top, and I have no reason to foresee anything different this season. They’ll need to score a couple of big upsets, and the fact that 3 of the 4 key games I have noted are being played in Palo Alto should certainly help the cause. Look for an 8 or 9 win season and a ranking somewhere in the lower portion of the Top 25.

 

 

22        LSU

Last Season:             8-4

Key Games:              10/7 at Florida, 10/14 vs. Auburn, 11/4 at Alabama

Allow me to say something controversial. I think Leonard Fournette was an overrated college running back that will have a relatively short and very average NFL career. There…I said it!! At any rate, I don’t believe Fournette’s departure will have that much of an impact on the Bayou Bengals. Actually it may help not having him as a distraction. What doesn’t help is a schedule that includes trips to The Swamp and Tuscaloosa. 9 wins and a 3rd place finish in their division looks like the ceiling, and that’d be good enough to finish as a ranked team. Head coach Ed Orgeron is firmly entrenched as the head coach for now, but I have to believe that he’s on a short leash. He’ll get two seasons to prove his worth, and probably needs to win 8 or 9 games each year.

 

 

23        Miami (FL)

Last Season:             9-4

Key Games:              9/16 at Florida St., 11/4 vs. Virginia Tech, 11/11 vs. Notre Dame

Head coach Mark Richt acquitted himself quite nicely in his first season in Coral Gables, as the ‘Canes continue to hover on the fringes of their former glory. With the ACC raising the bar and being one of the better conferences I have a difficult time seeing them making any kind of significant leap in 2017. However, if they can win a couple of key games and beat all of the teams they’re supposed to defeat I don’t think equaling last year’s success is an unreasonable expectation.

 

 

24        UCLA

Last Season:             4-8    

Key Games:              9/23 at Stanford, 10/28 at Washington, 11/18 at USC

Despite recent comments that “football and school don’t go together” (a statement that might contain a kernel of truth but should never be verbalized) I like QB Josh Rosen. He’ll be a first round NFL draft pick next spring, and his importance became clear when the Bruins lost 4 out of their final 5 games when Rosen suffered a season ending shoulder injury last year. The Pac 12 is super tough, but I think UCLA flips the script and wins 8 games.

 

 

25          Notre Dame

Last Season:             4-8

Key Games:              9/9 vs. Georgia, 10/21 vs. USC, 11/11 at Miami (FL), 11/25 at Stanford

Surely the beloved Fighting Irish won’t finish with a losing record two years in a row?? If they could pull off one…or two…upsets sneaking into the rankings seems like a solid possibility. Conversely, another bad year might mean the end of the road for head coach Brian Kelly.

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Winning & Musing…Volume 4.17

I am well aware that some citizens of The Manoverse are not sports fans and skip right past posts like these. That’s okay, I understand, and stay tuned for other non-sports goodness coming your way. I also know that I just published the previous edition of W&M less than a week ago. But I’ve got more to say and I just can’t hold it in, so climb on, strap in, & ride the wave!!

 

 

 

 

In offering thoughts about the NFL Draft I neglected to address one significant topic of conversation…running back Joe Mixon. The Cincinnati Bengals chose Mixon in the second round, and the looks of disdain on the faces of the talking heads could not go unnoticed. In 2014…his freshman year at Oklahoma…Mixon pleaded guilty to misdemeanor assault for punching a woman in a restaurant during the summer before the school year began. The details of the incident aren’t important and I am NOT here to defend Mixon. His actions were appalling…few would dispute that fact. Having said that, I have two issues with how the situation has been handled & reported. First of all, I fervently disagree with anyone who equates Mixon’s circumstances with those of former Baltimore Ravens’ running back Ray Rice, who you’ll recall was suspended from the NFL in 2014 after punching his fiancée (now wife) in an Atlantic City elevator. Rice hasn’t played a down of football since and probably never will again. The huge difference to me is that Rice was a 27 year old professional who should’ve known better. I have no problem with the fact that he hasn’t gotten another opportunity to play in the NFL. It’s a privilege to do so, not a right. Conversely, Mixon was a barely 18 year old college freshman. He was suspended for a year from the Oklahoma football program and caused no further issues after his return. Yet there were reportedly NFL teams that didn’t have him on their draft boards at all, and after he was drafted guys like ESPN’s Adam Schefter (who I usually like a lot) looked like they might actually cry, vomit, or do both simultaneously. Where’s the mercy?? Holy cow…if we were all held perpetually accountable for the idiotic things we did in high school and/or college I know a plethora of successful people who never would have gotten a job interview. Granted, punching a woman in the face is much more serious than the stupidity that my friends & I engaged in during our youth, but the point still stands. Joe Mixon did something truly awful as an 18 year old kid. He shouldn’t have to pay for it for the rest of his life. Admittedly it was a bit tone deaf for the Bengals, who’ve had more than their fair share of lawbreaking miscreants don the orange & black in the past decade or two, to choose Mixon, but that’s on them. I assume the young man will be under a zero tolerance policy, and rightfully so. If he even so much as looks angrily at someone he should be waived and forced to get a 9 to 5 job like the rest of us working stiffs, but if he stays on the straight & narrow I think allowing him to pursue a professional football career is proper. The other issue I have with this whole thing is the relatively new idea that professional athletes need to be model citizens. I have opined multiple times over the years that just because an individual can run fast or has superior athletic skill doesn’t mean they are a good person, and it didn’t used to be a requirement. The history of sports is chockful of drunks, junkies, bullies, & criminals of all kinds, from baseball’s Babe Ruth & Ty Cobb to football’s Joe Namath & Lawrence Taylor to basketball’s Dennis Rodman & Allen Iverson and many many other examples from every level of athletics. Some people ultimately ruined their careers while others were just branded as “colorful”, but because they were supremely talented all were given an opportunity…oftentimes numerous opportunities…and no one seemed to mind. However, in the ultra-PC 21st century there are those eager to toss aside someone who made one big mistake when he was barely 18 years old?? Again I ask…where is the mercy??

 

 

Add NFL Hall-of-Famer and favorite Steeler Jerome Bettis to the list of those dismissed in the much discussed ESPN bloodbath. I’m a huge fan of The Bus, but I’m not shedding too many tears for him because I happen to know that he’s involved in various business pursuits and will land on his feet just fine. To be honest he didn’t add all that much to the already copious amount of NFL coverage on The Mothership and likely won’t be missed.

 

 

I wonder if journalist Brian Windhorst gets down on his knees every night and thanks the Good Lord above for Lebron James?? Windhorst has parlayed a local career in his hometown of Akron, OH during which he covered Lebron’s high school games into a gig with the Akron Beacon-Journal, then the Cleveland Plain-Dealer, & now ESPN. He has basically been Lebron’s personal reporter for almost two decades, and now he has written a book that I just finished reading called Return of the King, about Lebron’s homecoming to Cleveland a few years ago and the Cavaliers’ failure then success in pursuit of an NBA title. The book is pretty good if you’re into those kind of books, which I am. Good job Windy!!

 

 

 

Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Penguins, who gutted out a seven game series victory over the Washington Capitals to move on in the NHL playoffs. The Pens will have to take down the Ottawa Senators in the Eastern Conference Finals to earn a shot at defending their Stanley Cup championship.

 

 

 

Some ideas to “fix” the NBA:

*Expansion. It is necessary for my math to work. There are currently 30 teams in the league, but we need 32. Maybe you give Seattle a team back. Ditto for Vancouver. How about Vegas?? The NFL’s Raiders are moving there and the NHL is expanding there as well, so why not?? I’m a little partial to the idea of awarding a team to Pittsburgh. I don’t know…discuss amongst yourselves. All I know is that we need two additional teams.

*32 teams would allow us to reduce each team’s schedule from 82 games to 77. Not much of a decrease, but every little bit helps, right?? I’m tired of all the whining about resting players & such. The league would be split into an Eastern & Western Conference. Divide each conference into North & South divisions if you want…it doesn’t really matter. A team would play everyone else in their conference three times…45 games. They’d play each team in the other conference twice…32 games. 45+32=77.

*I’m not sure how you’d handle scheduling. My vote would be to play as many back-to-back games as possible to reduce travel just as they do in MLB, but basketball players seem to complain a lot about back-to-back games. I’ll leave it up to people smarter than me to figure out logistics.

*Even though we are expanding the league and reducing regular season games we’re still going to go ahead and trim the playoff field from 8 teams in each conference to 6. The top two teams in each conference (you could make these division champs) get a first round bye. Each first round series is just three games, as is each second round series. The conference finals are 5 game series, and the NBA Finals would be the only round with a 7 game series.

*Out of the 26 teams that don’t make the playoffs the BEST five go into the Draft Lottery to see who gets the #1 pick. Well…actually it’d decide the top five picks. If you still want to do the bouncy ball thing then each team’s number of balls would be equal to their number of wins. After that win/loss records would determine the draft order. So the worst team in the league would receive the 6th overall pick. This system would eliminate the ridiculous practice of tanking, which is a stain on the league. Not only would good teams be competing to make the playoffs in the waning days of the regular season, but not so good teams would be competing to get into the lottery rather than purposely losing. It would encourage competitive balance and wise management, because teams that just missed the playoffs are (theoretically) adding the best players, putting playoff teams on notice.

 

 

I said about a month ago that I would postpone offering an opinion on my Pittsburgh Pirates until a little further into the season. Well, we are more than 30 games in and the Pirates are dead last in their division and painful to watch. We Pirates fans endured two decades of losing until a few years ago, then had a couple of years when the team actually made the playoffs as a wildcard. But now it feels like we are right back to square one. I’ve never believed that pitcher Gerrit Cole is a true ace, but he’s the best they’ve got and there is chatter about him being traded. Outfielder Starling Marte screwed the pooch by getting suspended for most of the season for PED use, but I’m not sure his presence would make that much of a difference. There has been talk of trading all-star outfielder Andrew McCutchen as far back as last season, but even if they keep him it feels like his prime years are being wasted. I watch games and don’t even know who some of these guys are!! I am tempted to say that it’s time for manager Clint Hurdle to go, that he is too passive and the players aren’t listening to him anymore. That may be true, but I don’t think changing managers would help that much either. The problem with the Pirates is ownership. The business is profitable and fans continue to fill the ballpark because that’s just how dedicated & loyal Pittsburghers and fans from surrounding areas are. It’s in their DNA. Winning would be a nice bonus, but it doesn’t seem necessary to the powers-that-be. I don’t have any answers. I wish I did.