Month: September 2024

2024 PIGSKIN PICKS OF PROFUNDITY…WEEK 5

First things first…

Last weekend I was 4-1, while Zach went 1-4. That means the overall season lead has shifted. We’ll see how long that lasts. 

Other random thoughts…

Thus far my NFL predictions haven’t panned out. I am particularly perplexed by the ineptitude of the Cincinnati Bengals & Jacksonville Jaguars, while being surprised at the success of the Minnesota Vikings. I am not at all shocked that league zebras are catching heat for their noticeable generosity toward the Kansas City Chiefs. The criticism is well deserved, and that, combined with what feels like a purposeful effort by the league to indulge Swifties, has quickly cast the defending Super Bowl Champions as villains. In the college ranks, Alabama & Texas have played better than I anticipated, while Florida St. has been a train wreck & Notre Dame has underwhelmed. And finally, as much as I hate to say it, anyone writing about Heisman odds who doesn’t have Travis Hunter at the top doesn’t know their ass from a hole in the ground. Heisman voters need to decide if the award exclusively goes to a quarterback on one of the top teams and be honest about that, or reward a player who performs at a high level on both sides of the ball and look past the fact that his team is average and his coach is a self-important blowhard.

My Season: 15-13

Zach’s Season: 13-15

Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) (-19)

When these two programs moved to the ACC a couple decades ago it was the beginning of the end for The Big East, and I’ll never forgive them for that. At any rate, the 2-2 Hokies are unlikely to defeat the unbeaten Hurricanes, but can they cover the points?? I think perhaps they might. Zach has been impressed with the ‘Canes, but cautions this has all the earmarks of a classic trap game. However, while he believes it might’ve been a different story in Blacksburg, VA, he has confidence in the home team to win big in their house.

My Pick: Virginia Tech

Zach’s Pick: Miami (FL)

South Alabama at LSU (-22)

The 2-2 Jaguars out of the Sun Belt have grabbed some attention by outscoring their last two opponents 135-24. Meanwhile, the Bayou Bengals are riding at three game win streak after a season opening hiccup against USC. Death Valley on a Saturday night is no picnic, but I think South Alabama might keep things interesting for awhile before ultimately losing by four TDs. Zach isn’t a big fan of LSU coach Brian Kelly, but he’s willing to roll the dice on a dominant Tigers victory.

My Pick: LSU

Zach’s Pick: LSU

Georgia (-2) at Alabama

We’ll have alot of clarity after this game is over. The Bulldogs are 3-0 but barely escaped Kentucky with a win a couple weeks ago. Their legitimacy as the top team in the land has been questioned by some, with no shortage of those folks promoting Texas as the new #1 team. The Tide has rolled to three big wins thus far, making their coaching transition look seamless. ‘Bama has the home field, but I think Georgia gets their first regular season victory in this rivalry since 2007. Zach foresees a low scoring tug-of-war, with Georgia ultimately winning by 3-7 points.

My Pick: Georgia

Zach’s Pick: Georgia

Minnesota at Green Bay (-2.5)

Did you know that Vikings QB Sam Darnold is only 27 years old?? It feels like he should be older, probably because this is his fourth NFL team in seven seasons in the league. He is taking advantage of the opportunity that opened up when first round pick JJ McCarthy suffered a preseason knee injury. Minnesota is 3-0 & Darnold has the fifth best QBR in the NFL. The Packers are also playing with a backup QB after starter Jordan Love injured his knee a few weeks ago. Former Titans first round pick Malik Willis has led Green Bay to a 2-1 record, and he has the comfort of the home field. The question essentially becomes are the Vikings…and Darnold…for real?? Or has it all been smoke & mirrors?? The equation changes if Love is cleared to play, but that is up in the air right now. Armed with the information we have at this moment I have to believe the Vikes will ride the wave of momentum. Zach concurs.

My Pick: Minnesota 

Zach’s Pick: Minnesota 

Seattle at Detroit (-4.5)

The 2-1 Lions have not been as impressive as many (including yours truly) thought they’d be. Conversely, the 3-0 Seahawks have been sneaky good. RB Kenneth Walker has missed the past two games with an oblique injury. That’s an abdominal muscle in case you are curious. However, he is on pace to return for this game, and even if he doesn’t Zach Charbonnet has been solid in relief. Everyone will be focused on the chess match between Seattle’s offense & Detroit’s defense, but perhaps we need to pay attention to the opposite. If QB Jared Goff can get the ball to his receivers for a few big plays and RB Jahmyr Gibbs can help control the clock, it’d go a long way toward a victory for the home favorites. Zach believes things will be decided by a field goal or less.

My Pick: Detroit

Zach’s Pick: Seattle 

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 4

Neither one of us had a good week, thanks in part to underwhelming performances by the Wisconsin Badgers & Houston Texans. We’ll try to do better, starting on Friday night. Kudos to Fox, which, for the moment anyway, has replaced the departed WWE Smackdown (now airing on USA Network, which is fine with this wrasslin’ fan), with a Friday night football game. That means that we are able to enjoy football five out of seven nights. I rarely leave The Bachelor Palace these days as it is, but now I can feel good about it for awhile. 

My Season: 11-12

Zach’s Season: 12-11

Illinois at Nebraska (-8.5)

The college football world has been awaiting Nebraska’s return to relevance for a very long time. They haven’t had a winning season since 2016 and haven’t won ten games since 2012. The Cornhuskers have cycled thru six head coaches since the legendary Tom Osborne retired in 1997. Currently they sit at 3-0, but now the real work begins. The Illini are also 3-0, including an impactful victory over Kansas. This will be the first road game for Illinois, and there will be 90k fans ready to rumble in Lincoln on Friday. I like the home team, but I think the points are a little much. Nebraska probably wins by a 5-8 point margin. Conversely, Zach doesn’t see anything to dislike about Nebraska and believes they’ll get a big victory.

My Pick: Illinois

Zach’s Pick: Nebraska 

Tennessee (-7.5) at Oklahoma 

I don’t like Oklahoma in the SEC, but will reluctantly agree that it creates some intriguing matchups. The Vols are 3-0, having outscored their opponents 191-13. The 3-0 Sooners have the home field, but even the oddsmakers don’t see that as much of an advantage. I believe they are about to receive a very harsh welcome to their new conference, with the suits having to remind themselves that, financially atleast, it wasn’t a terrible decision, even it is a stupid move in every other way. Zach, on the other hand, predicts a high scoring shootout with very little defense. 

My Pick: Tennessee 

Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma 

Utah (-1.5) at Oklahoma State

The Utes were my preseason #1, and thru three games have not given me a reason to regret it. I ranked the Cowboys in my Top Ten and warned the masses not to sleep on this game. ESPN’s College Gameday will be less than a hundred miles away in Norman because…well of course they will be, but I think this will be the better game in that state. I’ll be thrilled if it’s as close as the odds indicate, but at the end of the day I have the visiting favorites pulling out a thriller, and these teams possibly meeting for a rematch in the Big 12 title game in a few months. Zach makes a valid point that Utah QB Cam Rising, who injured his hand a couple weeks ago and didn’t play at Utah St., is so important to his team that his absence would completely change the equation. That possibility is enough to swing the pendulum in the home team’s direction for him.

My Pick: Utah

Zach’s Pick: Oklahoma St.

Baltimore (-1) at Dallas

It warms my cockles to see these alleged Super Bowl contenders sitting at 0-2 & 1-1 respectively, with neither atop their division. Okay, okay…to be fair the Cowboys are in a three way tie, with the 0-2 Giants a game behind. Also, I realize both teams are likely to fix their issues and jump back into the playoff conversation. However, only one can emerge victorious on Sunday afternoon. It’s very interesting that the Cowboys are home underdogs, which probably means the “experts” believe they have bigger problems than their opponents. That being said, I am a bit of a contrarian who likes to go against conventional wisdom. While it pains me to have to cheer for either team, in this case I think Dallas defends their home turf with a single digit win. Zach opines that a Cowboys loss would put head coach Mike McCarthy on the hot seat, which would be fascinating given my prediction concerning him a year ago and my feeble decision to back off on the idea this season. 

My Pick: Dallas

Zach’s Pick: Dallas

Washington at Cincinnati (-8)

Monday Night Football is on an early season roll, and I’m here for it. The Commanders are 1-1, but I think rookie QB Jayden Daniels has an opportunity to be special, especially if the team acquires another weapon or two so WR Terry McClaurin doesn’t have secondaries focusing on him. Meanwhile, the 0-2 Bengals have been disappointing thus far, but it’s way too soon to push the panic button. There is no shame in losing to the defending Super Bowl champions on their home field, especially when the zebras put their stamp on the game. I foresee Daniels putting on a show and almost singlehandedly keeping his team in the game, with Cincy ultimately getting the win but not covering the points. Zach opines that the Bengals have been playing down to the level of their opponents, but believes they’ll rise up and blow out Washington. 

My Pick: Washington 

Zach’s Pick: Cincinnati 

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 3

Zach & I were both 6-5 in last weekend’s supersized round of action, but now we settle into our normal routine. I feel like it’s a bit too early in both the college & NFL seasons to draw any concrete conclusions, but I’ve seen enough  to know it’ll be a be a fun ride with a few surprises, with an emphasis on the few. Hell, we didn’t even get thru September before more conference realignment news, which is exactly the kind of predictable surprise we should expect at this point. At any rate, Zach retains the season lead, but I’m a patient man and won’t chase wins.

My Season: 9-9

Zach’s Season: 11-7

Alabama (-15.5) at Wisconsin 

I still don’t view ‘Bama as a serious title contender, but the talking heads are thus far treating them as if nothing has changed and the greatest college football coach of all time didn’t walk into the sunset. They’re 2-0, having outscored their opponents 105-16, so the results have been impressive. The Badgers are also 2-0, although their output has been more prosaic. It’s a Noon kickoff from Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, and the home crowd will be fired up. I do not believe Wisky will win the game outright, but I think it’ll be slightly more competitive than the folks in Vegas are anticipating. Zach concurs, pointing out Alabama’s tendency to start slow & finish strong, and Wisconsin’s tradition of controlling the line of scrimmage with their big uglies.

My Pick: Wisconsin

Zach’s Pick: Wisconsin 

Washington State at Washington (-4.5)

It’s a little early in the season for a rivalry game, but conference realignment simply bends tradition over a chair and violates it. Anyway, The Apple Cup has been contested since 1900, and I suppose we should appreciate its continuation no matter where it falls on the calendar. The Huskies have won 9 of the last 10 meetings. Both teams have dispatched their first two opponents with ease, but someone has to lose now, and I think it’ll be the Cougars by a touchdown. Conversely, Zach opines that the Huskies lost alot of talent from last season’s championship runner-up squad. He foresees a shootout and thinks the underdogs can score the upset.

My Pick: Washington

Zach’s Pick: Washington St.

Arizona at Kansas State (-7)

2-0 K-St. had all they could handle against Tulane last weekend, while 2-0 Arizona will now get their first taste of Big 12 action. This is a Friday night game on Fox, and one thing is certain…the Wildcats will win. I expect these teams to be in the hunt for the conference title until the end, so a victory this week could be huge. It should be a tough battle, but I believe the home favorites get the job done. Zach really likes Arizona sophomore QB Noah Fifita, who was the Pac 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year a season ago. He likes the visitors in a close game.

My Pick: Kansas St.

Zach’s Pick: Arizona

Chicago at Houston (-6.5)

The Hype Machine is all in on QB Caleb Williams, and the Bears did win their season opener over Tennessee. Meanwhile, the Texans also won their first game, but it was a nail biter. This is the Sunday night game on NBC, and I think Texans quarterback CJ Stroud, who received so much love from the talking heads last year during his rookie season, needs to remind everyone what he’s capable of doing. That being said, Houston needs to utilize ball control and keep Chicago’s defense on the field with sustained drives that eat the clock. Zach likes Williams’ future, but right now the favorites are just a better team.

My Pick: Houston

Zach’s Pick: Houston

Atlanta at Philadelphia (-6)

How will traveling to & from Brazil last weekend affect the Eagles?? I don’t get out much, so perhaps it’s nothing to be concerned about…but I can’t shake the idea that maybe it is. Unlike Philly, the Falcons lost their season opener. Their defense didn’t give up a touchdown to our Steelers, yet were still defeated by six field goals & their own inability to score in the second half. Atlanta paid QB Kirk Cousins $180 million (over the course of four years) this offseason, but the rumblings for rookie signal caller & first round pick Michael Penix have already begun. That chatter will only become louder if the offense sputters again Monday night. Cousins can throw water on the fire by leading his team to victory, which would shock nearly everyone. Don’t be surprised if this is a real dandy…a low scoring defensive tug-o’-war decided deep into the 4th quarter. I don’t know who comes out on top, but I predict it’ll be won by a field goal. Conversely, Zach doesn’t foresee any issues with the home team winning easily.

My Pick: Atlanta

Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia 

2024 Pigskin Picks of Profundity…Week 2

With the NFL commencing this weekend we’ll do one more round of bonus picks (for now) then settle into our normal routine. Zach got the jump on me last weekend, so I’ve got some catching up to do. Now you know why we don’t typically pick West Virginia games, and as far as USC goes, maybe Caleb Williams was actually holding them back. At any rate, we move forward with gleeful anticipation for the Sunday return of RedZone, and once again have five straight days of gridiron action beginning on Thursday night.

Sam’s Season: 3-4

Zach’s Season: 5-2

Iowa State at Iowa (-3)

With all of the inane conference realignment it’s crazy that these two schools still play in different ones. Anyway, the Cyclones opened with a solid win over North Dakota, while the Hawkeyes obliterated Illinois St. The visitors will need to open up the playbook a little more because they won’t win a slugfest in the trenches, and I think they’ll do just that. Zach thinks special teams & field position will be the difference, with the favorites winning at home.

My Pick: Iowa St.

Zach’s Pick: Iowa

Baylor at Utah (-15.5)

The Utes were my pre-season #1, not because I believe they are the best team in the country right now, but because I think they have a chance to survive the carnage of a long season. A season opening victory over Southern Utah doesn’t prove much, but doesn’t dissuade me from my assessment either. Meanwhile, the Bears also beat up some random team no one has heard of last weekend, but have certainly been…uneven…in recent years. Will this be their third straight losing season, or can they win 10+ games as they’ve done five times since 2013?? I don’t know the answer, but I think they’ll go down in flames this weekend. Zach doesn’t doubt that Utah will emerge victorious, but believes they won’t win by more than two touchdowns.

My Pick: Utah

Zach’s Pick: Baylor

Tennessee (-7.5) vs. NC State

The Vols came out strong, beating the snot out of Chattanooga. The Wolfpack didn’t get it going against Western Carolina until the 4th quarter before emerging with a solid win. This is a neutral site game in Charlotte, and I expect a fun contest. However, at the end of the day Tennessee probably scores a double digit victory. Zach thinks it’ll be alot closer and believes NC St. has the offense to maybe…possibly…perhaps…win the game.

My Pick: Tennessee 

Zach’s Pick: NC State

Colorado at Nebraska (-7.5)

Wow…let’s hop in the ol’ DeLorean time machine and enjoy a classic Big 8 battle circa the mid-1980s. We all know that the Buffs receive alot of love from the talking heads, but we also understand why. Credit where it is due, they scratched & clawed out a win against very talented 1-AA/FCS competition last weekend, but now the real fun begins. Meanwhile, after years of wandering in the Desert of Mediocrity some folks think the Cornhuskers are ready to reclaim their spot at the big table alongside other historic football programs. I don’t think we can glean much from a season opening beatdown of UTEP, but it’s a good start. It seems like Colorado has a target on their back for various reasons, and the Big 12 will probably eat them alive. Can they remain unscathed out of conference though?? I don’t believe so. Zach has more faith in Coach Prime than I do and foresees QB Shedeur Sanders balling out on his way to leading the team to a big win.

My Pick: Nebraska

Zach’s Pick: Colorado

Boise State at Oregon (-18.5)

Boise won a high scoring affair over Georgia Southern last weekend, but the step up in competition is exponential now. Some people have very high hopes for the Ducks, who got things started right with a fairly pedestrian victory over Idaho. The points concern me, given the favorites’ unimpressive output in their first game, but I think they’ll kick it up a notch and win by three TDs. Zach has high hopes for Oregon and thinks they’ll take care of business at home.

My Pick: Oregon

Zach’s Pick: Oregon

Texas (-6.5) at Michigan

Can the defending national champions duplicate their success from a season ago?? Can the Longhorns maintain the upward trajectory they’ve been on the last couple of years?? The oddsmakers seem to have strong opinions since they’ve made Michigan underdogs in The Big House. On paper the favorites are deeper, more talented, and have the stability of a coaching staff that’s been at the helm for a few years, but perhaps we are underestimating the testicular fortitude of the Maize & Blue. I don’t know who’ll win the game, but I think it will be decided by a field goal. Zach has serious concerns about Michigan’s offense but is hopeful their defense can be dominant. However, he regretfully foresees the favorites easily winning this contest.

My Pick: Michigan 

Zach’s Pick: Texas

Baltimore at Kansas City (-3)

It’s an AFC Title rematch, and could be an AFC Title preview. The NFL kicks off Thursday night on NBC, and we will very quickly gather a vibe about expectations. Defense is the deciding factor. We obviously anticipate a high level of playmaking from two elite quarterbacks, so the defense that can negatively impact that will win the game. I will go against the grain and predict a low scoring battle of field position & special teams. Justin Tucker vs. Harrison Butker. Something like 16-9, with the home team scratching out a hard fought victory. Zach opines that KC is known to start a season sluggishly before heating things up in the playoffs. He likes Baltimore to ride their new horse Derrick Henry to victory.

My Pick: Kansas City

Zach’s Pick: Baltimore 

Green Bay vs. Philadelphia (-2.5)

We’re getting a Friday night game too, from Brazil. It’s on Peacock, which is only about $5/month, so I highly recommend investing in it, especially if you are a fan of WWE and/or The Office. Anyway, at the end of last season these were two teams headed in opposite directions. The Packers won four straight games before being defeated in the second round of the playoffs, while Philly lost five out of their final six in the regular season, barely sneaking into the playoffs before being immediately put out of their misery by Tampa Bay. I don’t believe the Eagles are actually that bad and probably fixed most of their issues in the offseason, but Green Bay also improved and signed QB Jordan Love to a hefty contract extension. I foresee some big plays, but ultimately believe the game will be won on the ground & in the trenches, with the underdogs scoring a slight upset. Zach thinks the Eagles are a more proven contender and needs to see more before he can believe in the Packers.

My Pick: Green Bay

Zach’s Pick: Philadelphia 

Jacksonville at Miami (-3)

I feel like the NFL oddsmakers are still in offseason mode, with most of the point spreads being rather predictable. I predicted big things for the Jags coming into this year. QB Trevor Lawrence enters his fourth season at only 24 years old, and the defense is stout. The Dolphins have the home field after a season that saw them lose a wildcard game for the second consecutive year. I believe we’ll see Miami decline ever so slightly this season, while Jacksonville has the ability to surprise alot of people. That starts now. Conversely, Zach thinks the home team is well coached and will win a close battle.

My Pick: Jacksonville

Zach’s Pick: Miami

LA Rams at Detroit (-3.5)

The Lions were up 17 points at halftime of the NFC Title game before blowing it and watching the Super Bowl on television. The Rams fell to these Lions by just one point on Wildcard Weekend. This is the Sunday night game on NBC so the nation will be watching. I think Detroit’s defense is just a little better, and they’ll force a turnover or two to come out on top. Zach thinks the Lions are once again legit Super Bowl contenders. 

My Pick: Detroit

Zach’s Pick: Detroit

NY Jets at San Francisco (-3.5)

It’s the first Monday night game of the season, so of course the folks at ESPN want Aaron Rodgers involved. After the shortest season of his two decade career Rodgers seems to have recovered from tearing his Achilles on the fourth play of the opening game a year ago. The question becomes what else can the Jets offer?? Conversely, the Niners lost the Super Bowl in overtime and have a plethora of talent surrounding a second year QB who was the NFL Draft’s Mr. Irrelevant. I believe the Jets will make some noise this year, provided their quarterback’s health holds up, but once again I think they’ll get off on the wrong foot (pun very much intended). Zach concurs.

My Pick: San Francisco 

Zach’s Pick: San Francisco