Once again I find myself watching Thursday Night Football and preparing this post even though I’ve had all the pertinent info for a couple of days. I’ve been meaning to do something about my bad habit of procrastinating for several years, but I just haven’t gotten around to it yet. At any rate, bonus picks worked out pretty well for me last week (6-2), and less so for Zach (3-5), yet my intention was not to do it two weeks in a row. However, the schedule is lit…especially on Saturday…so we’ll just go with the flow. Baseball is in playoff mode and both pre-season basketball & hockey have begun, but it’s still the ol’ pigskin that lights my fire.
My Season: 21-15
Zach’s Season: 16-20
Florida State at Clemson (-27)
Not long ago this was one of the marquee matchups each season, but the 3-2 Seminoles have fallen on hard times in recent years. Conversely, the Tigers have consistently been one of the top teams in the nation for awhile. I don’t see any of that changing overnight, especially in Death Valley. The question is whether or not Clemson will cover the near four touchdown spread. They damn near lost to the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill a couple of weeks ago, so I don’t know if FSU should be encouraged by that result or petrified that the home team is coming off a bye week. I’m probably going to regret it, but I’m going with the #2 team in the country to get their mojo back and quiet the doubters (atleast for now). Zach feels like this could be a trap game. He doesn’t believe that Florida St. will win, but does feel like they’re improving and will play good enough to cover the points.
My Pick: Clemson
Z’s Pick: Florida St.
Michigan State at Wisconsin (-10)
This is a bigger game than I would have imagined it’d be a few weeks ago. The Badgers are an undefeated Top Ten team, while the Spartans are 4-2 and coming off a loss to Ohio St. Wisconsin has more to lose and is playing at home, so even though the points make me a little nervous I’ll roll the dice on the favorites. Zach really likes Badgers’ RB Jonathan Taylor and would vote for him to win the Heisman. That being said, he does believe that the Spartan defense will slow Taylor down just a little bit. However, he doesn’t think that defensive effort will be enough and thinks Wisconsin wins & covers.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Z’s Pick: Wisconsin
Penn State (-3) at Iowa
The Big Ten is really solid this season!! The Nittany Lions are 5-0 & ranked 10th in the polls, but they aren’t even leading their division. The Hawkeyes are 4-1 & ranked 17tth and are FOURTH in their division. So what does all of that mean for this game?? Good question. It’s interesting that Iowa isn’t favored at home, but I’m not sure that’s the right call by the folks in Vegas. The Vibes are telling me that an upset could be brewing. Zach really digs Iowa’s home field, but he doesn’t believe it’ll be enough.
My Pick: Iowa
Z’s Pick: Penn St.
Florida at LSU (-13)
The Gators are an undefeated Top Ten team coming off of a huge win over Auburn, so it’s a bit weird for them to be nearly two TD underdogs. Of course when the opponent is an undefeated Top 5 team with a well-regarded home field advantage I suppose it makes sense. What bothers me about the Bayou Bengals is that with the exception of a victory over Texas they haven’t had a tough schedule at all. The Gators made a believer out of me a week ago, and I have a difficult time believing that they’ll have enough of a letdown to lose by double digits. I don’t know who will win, although straight up I’d probably choose LSU. I just think it’ll be a close game. Zach has some concerns about Florida’s inconsistency and possible injuries, but he’s joining me out on that limb.
My Pick: Florida
Z’s Pick: Florida
Alabama (-16.5) at Texas A&M
We don’t pick a lot of Alabama games because I’m just kind of over the hype, but I’ve had this game on my radar since August. The Tide is undefeated and untested…clearly the best team in the country. A&M is 3-2 but ranked by virtue of their unimaginably difficult schedule, and were competitive against Clemson & Auburn in losses. They call the 100k + fans at each home game in College Station The 12th Man, and it is a notable advantage, but I’m not sure it’ll be enough. It’s a safe bet that ‘Bama will win the game, but will they cover?? They are winning by an average of 37 points per game, but this is certainly the toughest opponent they’ve faced. I would love to be wrong, but I’m sensing a 20-29 point victory this weekend, which would be more than enough. Zach concurs.
My Pick: Alabama
Z’s Pick: Alabama
Oklahoma (-11) vs. Texas
Hey, look y’all…it’s The Red River Shootout. Not only that, but both teams are almost in the Top Ten (Texas is ranked 11th), making this more meaningful than the matchup has been in quite awhile. There’s a good chance that there will be a rematch down the line in the conference title game because of how the Big 12 (which has ten teams) is set up, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The Sooners haven’t broken a sweat thus far, and QB Jalen Hurts looks like a legit Heisman contender. The Longhorns’ only blemish is a loss to LSU, which is nothing of which to be ashamed. This is a neutral site game in Dallas, so there’s no real home field advantage. The double digit points indicate that the oddsmakers aren’t quite ready to believe in Texas, which is understandable. Five of the past six Shootouts have been decided by a touchdown or less, but I’m going to ignore that and cheer for Oklahoma to win big. Zach thinks Texas QB Sam Ehlinger is overrated, but he foresees a tight game in which the favorites win by only a touchdown.
My Pick: Oklahoma
Z’s Pick: Texas
Houston at Kansas City (-5)
One thing I know for sure about this game…take the over (which is 55 points). The 3-2 Texans haven’t been overwhelmingly impressive, but they could easily be undefeated if a few breaks had gone their way. The Chiefs have looked marginally better, but it’ll be interesting to see how they react to last week’s loss to division rival Indianapolis. The home field is notable and could make a difference in a close game. I know everybody fawns all over KC quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but I really like Texans’ QB Deshaun Watson a lot. I also like Houston defensive lineman JJ Watt, and I think defense could be the key to victory. Conversely, Zach expects a big game from Mahomes and an easy Chiefs win.
My Pick: Houston
Z’s Pick: Kansas City
Philadelphia at Minnesota (-3)
The Eagles have struggled to regain their Super Bowl form from a couple of years ago, going 9-7 last season, and though they lead the NFC East at this point they’re only 3-2. The Vikings are also 3-2, but sit dead last in the NFC Central (to be fair they’re only one game behind). I foresee a low scoring defensive struggle, so a big question is which running back do I trust more…Philly’s duo of Miles Sanders & Jordan Howard or Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook?? In this case I’m leaning toward Cook to get the winning score. Zach likes the Vikings to defend their home turf and get a fairly decisive victory.
My Pick: Minnesota
Z’s Pick: Minnesota
The Manofesto 