You live by the sword you die by the sword. When I began doing this last year I made the decision to utilize point spreads, not for gambling purposes but because it adds a layer of strategery that increases the challenge. Simply choosing a winner means one has a 50/50 shot at being right. I am not good enough at math to figure out how the point spread decreases those odds…I just know it does. At any rate, the points really bit us in the behind last week. Both Alabama and the Kansas City Chiefs won as Zach & I predicted…but ‘Bama won by 7 in a game with an 8 point spread and the Chiefs beat the Dallas Cowboys by only 1 point so they didn’t cover the 2.5 point spread. Ouch…two tough losses. To make matters worse the Indianapolis Colts and Detroit Lions let us down. The only bright spot in a 1-4 week for both of us was the Denver Broncos. So for the season it looks like this:
Your Humble Potentate of Profundity = 7-8
Zach = 6-9
We’re flipping the script this week, leaning on more college games and picking only one NFL contest. None of the college games are the kind of big time clashes between highly ranked teams that make guys like ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit or CBS’s Tim Brando wet themselves, but I find them each compelling for one reason or another.
Boise St. at Fresno St. (-3)
In my pre-season Top 25 I ranked Fresno #18 and did not rank Boise at all. So far I’m looking good, but that could all change pending the outcome of this game. The Bulldogs are 2-0 and the only thing that’s even challenged them thus far is Mother Nature (last week’s game at Colorado was postponed due to flooding). Conversely, the Broncos come into this week having split their first two games. I have to stick with my pre-season vibes and go with Fresno to take this one. Zach likes that Fresn’s offense seems to be clicking on all cylinders and believes they’ll cover the points despite a strong effort from Boise.
My Pick Fresno St.
Z’s Pick Fresno St.
Western Michigan at Iowa (-17)
Zach & I both participate in a weekly online pick ‘em sponsored here locally in northcentral WV (high school, college, & pro games are all included), and each week the Iowa game has been on there. I couldn’t fathom why we kept picking the Iowa game until I remembered that a young man from one of the local high schools is now a kicker for the Hawkeyes. What intrigues me about this game is the huge spread. Western Michigan has gotten off to a bad 0-3 start, although to be fair they have played two Top 25 Big Ten teams (Michigan St. & Northwestern). Meanwhile, Iowa lost a close opener to Northern Illinois but now stands at 2-1. I know absolutely nothing about either of these teams so I am just going to wuss out and go with the oddsmakers. Zach graduated from the aforementioned high school that Iowa’s kicker came from so despite being a bit concerned with the points he’s making the homer pick.
My Pick Iowa
Z’s Pick Iowa
Arizona St. at Stanford (-7.5)
Christmas came early last week for Arizona St. when extraordinary incompetence by the officials allowed the Sun Devils to steal a win, which took their record to 2-0. Stanford is 2-0 and ranked in the Top 5, but they really haven’t played anybody. At first glance the points look intriguing, but I don’t think Stanford will have any problem covering en route to a fairly stress-free victory. Zach has been anticipating this game and believes that Arizona St. is a legitimately good team despite last week’s tainted victory. He’s predicting the upset.
My Pick Stanford
Z’s Pick Arizona St.
Kansas St. at Texas (-5)
In my pre-season Top 25 I ranked the Longhorns #4 and predicted that they “are finally primed to re-ascend to the top of The Big 12 and possibly contend for a national championship.” It turns out that that assessment may have been…slightly optimistic. Texas has begun the season 1-2 and a lot of folks aren’t too happy about it. Kansas St. is 2-1, but their schedule thus far has been less than compelling and they lost to a 1-AA team to open the season. The vibes are telling me that the heat has been turned up in Austin to a sufficient enough level that the Longhorns won’t let this one slip thru their fingers. Zach isn’t excited at all about this game and would actually prefer to watch paint dry. However, even though he’s convinced that this will be a boring game he agrees that Texas will bounce back and get the win.
My Pick Texas
Z’s Pick Texas
Kansas City at Philadelphia (-3.5)
The lone NFL game on the docket is significant because it marks Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid’s return to The City of Brotherly Love to face the team that he coached for 14 years…until they fired him on New Year’s Eve. Kansas City has looked impressive thus far in going 2-0, and my prediction of a 9-7 record with a playoff appearance is looking prescient. Everyone is all aflutter about the magical things new coach Chip Kelly has been doing with the Eagles’ offense, but it has become apparent that defense is an issue. Until Philly gets those problems fixed and stops giving up 30 points per game they’ll be easy pickins for most NFL teams. Zach is all in on the Chiefs and thinks highly of quarterback Alex Smith.
My Pick Kansas City
Z’s Pick Kansas City
- Chiefs vs. Eagles Week 3 NFL Point Spread & Prediction: September 19th 2013 (touthouse.com)
- Boise State vs. Fresno State Point Spread & Prediction: September 20th 2013 (touthouse.com)
- College Football Features Bevy of Crazy Spreads, Including 60 Points for Miami (bleacherreport.com)
- Sources: Season over for Broncos’ Clady (espn.go.com)
- Record-breaking point spreads for three of college football’s biggest names (blogs.mcall.com)